Atrial fibrillation prevalence, incidence and risk of stroke and all-cause death among Chinese

Effect of atherosclerosis on the relationship between atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke incidence among patients on hemodialysis

In patients undergoing hemodialysis, the impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) through cardiac thromboembolism on the development of ischemic stroke may be influenced by the severity of atherosclerosis present. However, there are no large-scale reports confirming whether the severity of atherosclerosis influences the relationship between AF and stroke development in patients requiring hemodialysis. We aimed to investigate the effects of atherosclerotic disease on the relationship between AF and new-onset ischemic stroke. This nationwide longitudinal study based on dialysis facilities across Japan used data collected from the Japanese Renal Data Registry at the end of 2019 and 2020. The exposure was AF at the end of 2019, identified using a resting 12-lead electrocardiography. The primary outcome was the incidence of cerebral infarction (CI) after 1 year. To examine whether the number of atherosclerotic diseases modified the association between AF and the outcome, we estimated the odds ratios (ORs) using a logistic regression model and then assessed the presence of global interaction using Wald test. Following the study criteria, data from 151,350 patients (mean age, 69 years; men, 65.2%; diabetic patients, 48.7%) were included in the final analysis. A total of 9841 patients had AF (prevalence, 6.5%). Between 2019 and 2020, 4967 patients (3.2%) developed ischemic stroke. The adjusted OR of AF for new-onset CI was 1.5, which showed a decreasing trend with an increasing number of atherosclerotic diseases; the interaction was not significant (P = 0.34). While age, diabetes mellitus, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and serum C-reactive protein concentration were positively associated with CI, intradialytic weight gain, body mass index, and serum albumin level were negatively associated. While we demonstrated the association between AF and new-onset CI among Japanese patients on hemodialysis, we failed to demonstrate the evidence that the association was attenuated with an increasing numbers of atherosclerotic complications.

Shared decision making for anticoagulation reduces anxiety and improves adherence in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Treatment with oral anticoagulants (OACs) could prevent stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF), but side effects developed due to OACs may cause patients anxiety during decision making. This study aimed to investigate whether shared decision making (SDM) reduces anxiety and improves adherence to stroke prevention measures in patients with AF.

METHODS

A one-group pretest-posttest design using a questionnaire survey was applied at the outpatient cardiology clinic between July 2019 until September 2020. A Patient Decision Aid (PDA) tool was used for the completion of the questionnaire survey after health education and counseling. Ten questions were included for patients' recognition of SDM, and a 5-point scoring method was used, where "very much" was scored as 5 points, and "totally not" was scored as 1 point.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients with AF were enrolled. In terms of patients' recognition of SDM, points of more than 4.17 out of 5 were noted, indicating recognition above the level of "very much." The patients' anxiety scores before SDM were 3.56 (1.2), with a decrease of 0.64 points (p < 0.001) to 2.92 (1.3) after SDM. After SDM, the number of patients who decided to take OAC increased from 76.9% to 88.5%, and the 15.4% answering "unclear" decreased to 1.9% (p = 0.006). The patients' anxiety levels after SDM were associated with gender (p = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

The approach using SDM enhanced our understanding of the pros and cons of OAC treatment and, in patients with AF, decreased anxiety about therapeutic decisions and increased willingness to accept treatment options.

Resting heart rate and risk of atrial fibrillation in Chinese general population: Kailuan prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Previous research has shown an association of higher heart rate with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the relationship between resting heart rate (RHR) and AF is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between RHR and AF in the general population of China.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

Community based.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 46 126 individuals from the Kailuan study who participated in the first three surveys (2006/2007, 2008/2009 and 2010/2011) and were followed up at 2-year intervals were enrolled.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The association between RHR and risk of incident AF was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic spline models.

RESULTS

Two hundred and forty-one individuals (0.52%) developed AF during 7.5 years of follow-up. After adjustment for age, sex, low-density and high-density lipoprotein, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking status, body mass index, mean systolic blood pressure, and history of diabetes and hypertension, the HRs were 2.32 (95% CI 1.45 to 3.72) for an RHR <60 beats/min and 2.80 (1.13 to 6.94) for an RHR ≥100 beats/min in comparison with an RHR of 70-80 beats/min. Restricted cubic spline models revealed a U-shaped relationship between RHR and incident AF.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that RHR and incident AF have a U-shaped relationship in the Chinese general population. Both lower and higher RHRs were associated with an increased risk of AF.

Latest incidence and electrocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation: a prospective study from China

BACKGROUND

China bears the biggest atrial fibrillation (AF) burden in the world. However, little is known about the incidence and predictors of AF. This study aimed to investigate the current incidence of AF and its electrocardiographic (ECG) predictors in general community individuals aged over 60 years in China.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study, recruiting subjects who were aged over 60 years and underwent annual health checkups from April to July 2015 in four community health centers in Songjiang District, Shanghai, China. The subjects were then followed up from 2015 to 2019 annually. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, medical history, and the resting 12-lead ECG were collected. Kaplan-Meier curve was used for showing the trends in AF incidence and calculating the predictors of AF. Associations of ECG abnormalities and AF incidence were examined using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

This study recruited 18,738 subjects, and 351 (1.87%) developed AF. The overall incidence rate of AF was 5.2/1000 person-years during an observation period of 67,704 person-years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis indicated age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.09; P < 0.001), male (HR, 1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.62; P = 0.018), a history of hypertension (HR, 1.55; 95% CI: 1.23-1.95; P < 0.001), a history of cardiac diseases (HR, 3.23; 95% CI: 2.34-4.45; P < 0.001), atrial premature complex (APC) (HR, 2.82; 95% CI: 2.17-3.68; P < 0.001), atrial flutter (HR, 18.68; 95% CI: 7.37-47.31; P < 0.001), junctional premature complex (JPC) (HR, 3.57; 95% CI: 1.59-8.02; P = 0.002), junctional rhythm (HR, 18.24; 95% CI: 5.83-57.07; P < 0.001), ventricular premature complex (VPC) (HR, 1.76; 95% CI: 1.13-2.75, P = 0.012), short PR interval (HR, 5.49; 95% CI: 1.36-22.19; P = 0.017), right atrial enlargement (HR, 6.22; 95% CI: 1.54-25.14; P = 0.010), and pacing rhythm (HR, 3.99; 95% CI: 1.57-10.14; P = 0.004) were independently associated with the incidence of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

The present incidence of AF was 5.2/1000 person-years in the studied population aged over 60 years in China. Among various ECG abnormalities, only APC, atrial flutter, JPC, junctional rhythm, short PR interval, VPC, right atrial enlargement, and pacing rhythm were independently associated with AF incidence.

Risk factors and SCN5A-H558R polymorphism for atrial fibrillation in Tibetans living at different altitudes

Several studies have found associations of genes with atrial fibrillation (AF), including SCN5A-H558R. However, there are limited data of these associations among populations living at different altitudes. We investigated the relationship between the SCN5A-H558R polymorphism and AF in Tibetans living at different altitudes in Qinghai, China. General clinical and genotype data were obtained from 72 patients with AF and 109 non-AF (NAF) individuals at middle altitudes, and from 102 patients with AF and 143 NAF individuals at high altitudes. Multifactor logistic regression was performed to determine associations and AF risk factors. SCN5A-H558R genotypes differed significantly between the AF and NAF groups (P < .0125) and the G allele was an independent AF risk factor (P < .05) at both altitudes, with no significant differences according to altitude (P > .0125). At middle altitudes, age, red blood cell distribution width (RDW-SD), left atrial internal diameter (LAD), and G allele were independent AF risk factors. At high altitudes, age, smoking, hypertension, RDW-SD, free triiodothyronine, LAD, and G allele were independent AF risk factors (P < .05). The G allele of SCN5A-H558R might be an independent risk factor of AF both high and middle altitude, but there are some differences in other clinical risk factors of AF.

Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: A Scientific Statement of JACC: Asia (Part 1)

Atrial fibrillation is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia and is associated with substantial increases in the risk of stroke and systemic thromboembolism. With the successful introduction of the first non-vitamin K antagonist direct oral anticoagulant (NOAC) in 2009, the role of vitamin K antagonists has been replaced in most clinical settings except in a few conditions when NOACs are contraindicated. Data for the use of NOACs in different clinical scenarios have been accumulating in the recent decade, and a more sophisticated strategy for atrial fibrillation patients is now warranted. JACC: Asia recently appointed a working group to summarize the most updated information regarding stroke prevention in AF. This statement aimed to provide possible treatment option in daily practice. Local availability, cost, and patient comorbidities should also be considered. Final decisions may still need to be individualized and based on clinicians' discretion. This is the part 1 of the whole statement.

Elevated levels of body mass index and waist circumference, but not high variability, are associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Although obesity has been associated with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), the associations of variability of obesity measures with AF risk are uncertain, and longitudinal studies among Chinese population are still lacking. We aimed to evaluate the impacts of obesity and variability of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) on the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large Chinese cohort study.

METHODS

A total of 44,135 participants of the Kailuan Study who were free of cancer and cardiovascular disease and underwent three consecutive surveys from 2006 to 2010 were followed for incident AF until 2020. Average BMI and WC over time and variability were calculated. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of obesity and variability in BMI and WC with AF risk.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 9.68 years, there were 410 cases of incident AF. In multivariable-adjusted models, compared with normal BMI/WC, individuals with general obesity and abdominal obesity had increased risk of AF, with corresponding HRs of 1.73 (95% CI: 1.31-2.30) and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.11-1.60), respectively. The short-term elevation in AF risk persisted for the obese even after adjustment for updated biologic intermediaries and weight. Variability in BMI and WC were not associated with the risk of AF. The restricted cubic spline models indicated significant linear relationships between levels of WC and BMI and risk of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated levels of BMI and WC were associated with an increased risk of AF, whereas variability in BMI and WC were not. Therefore, achieving optimal levels of BMI and WC could be valuable in AF prevention.

U-Shaped Association Between Blood Pressure and Mortality Risk in ICU Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: The MIMIC-III Database

Background

Existing evidence on the association between blood pressure (BP) and mortality risk in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is scarce.

Aim

This study aimed to assess the associations between blood pressure (BP) and risks of in-hospital and all-cause mortality in ICU patients with AF.

Methods

A total of 2,345 records of patients with AF whose BP was monitored after admission to the ICU were obtained from the MIMIC-III database. Incidences were calculated for endpoints (hospital mortality, 7-day mortality, 30-day mortality, and 1-year mortality). We performed smooth curve and logistic regression analyses to evaluate the association between BP and the risk of each endpoint.

Results

Smooth curve regression showed that systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean arterial pressure (MBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) followed U-shaped curves with respect to endpoints (hospital mortality, 7-day mortality, 30-day mortality, and 1-year mortality). The incidence of these endpoints was lowest at 110/70/55 mm Hg. There was an increased risk of 1-year mortality observed with BP > 110/70/55 mm Hg (SBP, odds ratio [OR] = 1.008, 95% CI 1.001–1.015, p = 0.0022; MBP, OR = 1.010, 95% CI 1.005–1.016, p < 0.001) after adjusting for age, sex, and medical history. In contrast, an inverse association between BP and the risk of 1-year mortality was observed with BP ≤ 110/70/55 mm Hg (SBP, OR = 0.981, 95% CI 0.974–0.988, p < 0.001; MBP OR = 0.959, 95% CI 0.939–0.979, p < 0.001; and DBP, OR = 0.970, 95% CI 0.957–0.983, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

We observed a U-shaped association between BP and in-hospital/all-cause mortality in ICU patients with AF. However, the underlying causes need to be investigated.

The Chinese burden of atrial fibrillation review of atrial fibrillation studies in China

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common heart rate disorders, but most relevant studies are mainly focused on Europe and The United States, while information about AF in the Chinese population is scarce. The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the literature on atrial fibrillation in China.

METHODS

A literature search (Medline 2001-2021) identified studies reporting the prevalence or incidence of AF, risk factors for AF, comorbidities of AF, and use of antithrombotic therapy in China. This report focuses on descriptive analytical data.

RESULTS

Studies reported a wide variation in the prevalence of AF, with a range of community-based and hospital-based AF rates (from 0.49% to 8.8% and 4.4% to 35.7%). Aspirin and warfarin use was found to be particularly low in community-based studies in China, and warfarin and amiodarone use was higher in hospital-based studies than in other countries. Stroke is the most common complication of atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSIONS

More high-quality studies are needed to improve our understanding of the burden of atrial fibrillation in China. Efforts should be made to improve community delivery and monitoring of antithrombotic therapy after AF. Due to China's large population, the number of patients with untreated AF and the risk of accompanying complications can be high, so the impact on healthcare resources can be significant.

Comparison of Different Dosages of Alteplase in Atrial Fibrillation-Related Acute Ischemic Stroke After Intravenous Thrombolysis: A Nationwide, Multicenter, Prospective Cohort Study in Taiwan

Background

Insufficient evidence is available for patients with acute ischemic stroke with atrial fibrillation (AF) to determine the efficacy and safety of different dosages of intravenous thrombolysis treatment. This study examined clinical outcomes in Chinese patients with stroke with and without AF after intravenous thrombolysis treatment with different intravenous thrombolysis doses.

Methods and Results

This multicenter, prospective cohort study recruited 2351 patients with acute ischemic stroke (1371 with AF and 980 without AF) treated with intravenous thrombolysis using alteplase. The Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events score is a validated risk‐scoring tool used for assessing patients with acute ischemic stroke with and without AF. We evaluated favorable functional outcome at day 90 and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage within 24 to 36 hours and outcomes of the patients receiving different doses of alteplase. Compared with the non‐AF group, the AF group exhibited a 2‐ to 3‐fold increased risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage according to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke standard (relative risk [RR], 2.10 [95% CI, 1.35–3.26]). Favorable functional outcome at 90 days and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage rates according to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II and the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke‐Monitoring Study standards did not significantly differ between the AF and non‐AF groups. In addition, the low‐dose alteplase subgroup exhibited an increased risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage according to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke standard (RR, 2.84 [95% CI, 1.63–4.96]). A validation study confirmed these findings after adjustment for scores determined using different stroke risk‐scoring tools.

Conclusions

Different alteplase dosages did not affect functional status at 90 days in the AF and non‐AF groups. Thus, the adoption of low‐dose alteplase simply because of AF is not recommended.

Exploratory Evaluation of Rhythm Control by Dronedarone in Combination With Low-Dose Rivaroxaban, Warfarin, Antiplatelet, or None of the Antithrombotic Therapy in High-Risk Patients With Non-Permanent Atrial Fibrillation: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The emerging data supports rhythm control to prevent major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Limited data demonstrated rivaroxaban 10 mg combining dronedarone seemed feasible. This study aimed at investigating clinical events in a dronedarone-treated cohort. This exploratory, retrospective chart review was conducted in nonpermanent AF patients receiving dronedarone for ≥ 3 months between 2009/1 and 2016/2. In Taiwan, dronedarone's labeled indication was strict to age ≥ 70 or 65 to 70 years with either hypertension, diabetes, prior stroke, or left atrium >50 mm. We divided all into 4 groups using antithrombotic strategies to evaluate the safety, effectiveness, and MACE endpoints. A total of 689 patients (mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 3.8 ± 1.4) were analyzed: rivaroxaban 10 mg (n = 93, 13.5%), warfarin (n = 89, 12.9%), antiplatelet (n = 331, 48.0%), and none (n = 176, 25.5%). During the follow-up period (mean 946 ± 493.8 days), the rivaroxaban group did not report any stroke or thromboembolism (ishcmeic stroke rate: antiplatelet [0.6%], none [1.1%]; hemorrahgic stroke rate: warfarin [2.2%]; thromboembolism rate: warfarin [2.2%]). There was no significant difference in safety, effectiveness, and MACE endpoints between groups. Also, >104 weeks of dronedarone use was the independent predictor for MACE after adjusting the strategy and other covariates (hazard ratio 0.14 [95% confidence interval 0.04-0.44], P = .001). Our findings warrant concomitant rivaroxaban 10 mg and dronedarone for further investigation. Regardless of antithrombotic strategies, a more extended persistence of dronedarone was associated with fewer MACE.

Physician-Pharmacist Collaborative Clinic Model to Improve Anticoagulation Quality in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Receiving Warfarin: An Analysis of Time in Therapeutic Range and a Nomogram Development

Background: Poor time in therapeutic range (TTR) control is associated with an increased risk of stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients receiving warfarin. This study aimed to determine whether the physician-pharmacist collaborative clinic (PPCC) model could improve the anticoagulation quality as well as to create a nomogram for predicting anticoagulation quality in AF patients. Methods: This retrospective observational study enrolled AF patients who either initially received warfarin or returned to warfarin after withdrawal between January 1, 2016 and January 1, 2021, at our institution. The primary outcome was dynamic changes in TTRs (a TTR of ≥60% considered high anticoagulation quality). The secondary outcomes were thromboembolic and bleeding events during follow-up. We compared the dynamic changes in TTRs between the general clinic (GC) and PPCC groups in both the original and propensity score matching (PSM) cohorts. In addition, we explored the potential predictors of high anticoagulation quality and subsequently formulated a nomogram to predict anticoagulation quality. Results: A total of 265 patients with AF were included, comprising 57 patients in the PPCC group and 208 patients in the GC group. During a median follow-up period of 203 days, the PPCC group had a shorter time (76 vs. 199 days, p < 0.001) and more patients achieved a TTR ≥60% (73.7 vs. 47.1%, p = 0.002 by log-rank test) than the GC group. The results from the PSM cohort confirmed this finding. No significant differences in the incidences of thromboembolic events (5.3 vs. 5.3%, p = 1.000) and bleeding events (4.3 vs. 3.5%, p = 1.000) were observed between the two groups. Four variables were explored as predictors related to high anticoagulation quality: treatment within a PPCC, history of bleeding, history of bleeding, and the presence of more than four comorbidities. The nomogram revealed a moderate predictive ability (c-index: 0.718, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.669-0.767) and a moderately fitted calibration curve. Conclusion: The PPCC model contributed to improved anticoagulation quality in AF patients receiving warfarin. The nomogram might be an effective tool to predict anticoagulation quality and could aid physicians and pharmacists in the selection of patients who will likely benefit from sustained and active intervention.

Methodological considerations for investigating oral anticoagulation persistence in atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Reports of long-term oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF) reveal highly variable, and generally suboptimal estimates of medication persistence. The objective of this review is to summarize current literature and highlight important methodological considerations for interpreting persistence research and designing studies of persistence on OAC treatment.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We summarize differences in study methodology, setting, timing, treatment, and other factors associated with reports of better or worse persistence. For example, prospective compared with retrospective study designs are associated with higher reported persistence. Similarly, patient factors such as permanent AF or high stroke risk, and treatment with non-vitamin K oral antagonists relative to vitamin K antagonists are associated with higher persistence. Persistence has also been reported to be higher in Europe compared with North America and higher when the treating physician is a general practitioner compared with a specialist. We propose a framework for assessing and designing persistence studies. This framework includes aspects of patient selection, reliability and validity of measures, persistence definitions, clinical utility of measurements, follow-up periods, and analytic approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in study design, patient selection, treatments, and factors such as the countries/regions where studies are conducted or the type of treating physician may help explain the variability in OAC persistence estimates. A framework is proposed to assess persistence studies. This may have utility to compare and interpret published studies as well as for planning of future studies.

Novel model-based point scoring system for predicting stroke risk in atrial fibrillation patients: Results from a nationwide cohort study with validation

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This study used rigorous statistical method to construct the novel AF-CA-Stroke score and demonstrated that the novel stroke risk stratification tool had significantly higher discrimination abilities than conventional scores.

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This study exhibited that the status of various age stratifications and receiving AF ablation shall be considered in managing AF treatment.

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Based on the AF-CA-Stroke score, around 80–85% patients may take benefits form AF ablation procedures with lower stroke risks, and they may not be necessary to receive oral anticoagulants after receiving successful AF ablations.

Background

The stroke risk scoring system for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients can vary considerably based on patients’ status while receiving ablation. This study aimed to demonstrate a novel scoring system for stroke risk stratification based on the status of catheter ablation.

Methods

First, 787 patients with AF undergoing ablation were matched according to age, sex, and underlying diseases with the same number of patients not undergoing ablation using the propensity-score (PS)-matched cohort. Multivariate Cox model-derived coefficients were used to construct a simple point-based clinical model using the PS-matched cohort. Thereafter, the novel model (AF-CA-Stroke score) was validated in a nationwide AF cohort.

Results

The AF-CA-Stroke score was calculated based on age (point = 5), ablation status (point = 4), prior history of stroke (point = 4), chronic kidney disease (point = 2), diabetes mellitus (point = 1), and congestive heart failure (point = 1). Risk function to predict the 1-, 5-, 10-year absolute stroke risks was reported. The estimated area under the receive operating characteristic curve of the AF-CA-Stroke score in the PS-matched cohort was 0.845 (95% confidence interval: 0.824–0.865) to predict long-term stroke. A validation study showed that discrimination abilities in the AF-CA-Stroke scores were significantly higher than those in the CHADS₂/CHA₂DS_2-VASc scores. The best cut-off value of the AF-CA-Stroke score to predict future strokes was ≥ 5.

Conclusions

This novel model-based point scoring system effectively identifies stroke risk using clinical factors and AF ablation status of patients with AF. Various age stratifications and AF ablation should be considered in AF management.

Sex-specific contemporary trends in incidence, prevalence and survival of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: A long-term real-world data analysis

Introduction

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major increasing public health problem worldwide, with clinical and epidemiological differences between men and women. However, contemporary population-level data on incidence and survival are scarce.

Aim

To evaluate sex-specific contemporary trends in the incidence, prevalence, and long-term survival of non-valvular AF in a real-world setting

Methods

AF patients diagnosed between 2007–2015, insured by a large, state-mandated health organization in Israel (Maccabi Healthcare Services) were included. AF was diagnosed based on registered diagnoses. Patients with valvular disease, active malignancy, cardiac surgery ≤ 6 months, or recent pregnancy, were excluded. Annual incidence rate, period prevalence, and 5-year survival for each calendar year during the study period, were calculated.

Results

A total of 15,409 eligible patients (8,288 males, 7,121 females) were identified. Males were more likely to be younger, have higher rates of underlying diseases (ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), but with lower rates of hypertension and chronic kidney diseases as compared to female patients. During the study period, age-adjusted incidence decreased both in men: (-0.020/1,000-person year, p-for trend = 0.033) and, women (-0.025/1,000 person-year p = 0.009). The five-year survival rate was significantly higher among men vs. women (77.1% vs. 71.5%, respectively, p<0.001). Age-adjusted prevalence increased significantly among men (+0.102 per year, p-for trend<0.001) yet decreased among women (-0.082 per year, p-for trend = 0.005). A significant trend toward improved long-term survival was observed in women and not in men.

Conclusions

The current study shows significant sex-related disparities in the incidence, prevalence, and survival of AF patients between 2007–2015; while the adjusted incidence of both has decreased over-time, prevalence and mortality decreased significantly only in women.

Acupuncture for persistent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia, which is closely related to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Although acupuncture is used in the treatment of AF, the evidence is insufficient. The objective of this pilot trial is to evaluate the feasibility, preliminary efficacy, and safety of acupuncture in reducing AF burden for persistent AF after catheter ablation (CA).

Methods and design

This will be a multi-center, 3-arm, pilot randomized controlled trial in China. Sixty patients in total will be randomly assigned to the specific acupoints group, the non-specific acupoints group, or the non-acupoints group in a 1:1:1 ratio. The whole study period is 6 months, including a 3-month treatment period and a 3-month follow-up period. All patients will receive 18 sessions of acupuncture over 12 weeks after CA and appropriate post-ablation routine treatment. The primary outcome is AF burden at 6 months after CA measured by electrocardiography patch that can carry out a 7-day continuous ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring. The secondary outcomes include AF burden at 3  months after CA, recurrence of AF, quality of life, etc. The adverse events will also be recorded.

Discussion

This pilot study will contribute to evaluating the feasibility, preliminary efficacy, and safety of acupuncture in reducing AF burden for persistent AF after CA. The results will be used for the sample size calculation of a subsequent large-scale trial.

Trial registration

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR2000030576. Registered on 7 March 2020.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information accompanies this paper at 10.1186/s13063-020-04967-y.

Risk of recurrent stroke for Asian stroke patients treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant and warfarin

Aim:

The aim of this study was to establish whether non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are superior to warfarin in preventing stroke recurrence for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with an ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke at the baseline.

Methods:

From 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2017, stroke patients with AF treated with oral anticoagulants in the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan were enrolled. The study was retrospective cohort design. Outcome measures were ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke recurrence. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to obtain the hazard ratio (HR).

Results:

In total, 39,840 stroke patients with AF treated with NOAC and 42,583 treated with warfarin were identified. NOACs were superior to warfarin in preventing all recurrent stroke [adjusted HR: 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.63–0.71, p < 0.001]. Results for the ischemic stroke population were the same as that for all types for stroke (adjusted HR: 0.66, 95% CI, 0.62–0.70, p < 0.001). For the hemorrhagic stroke population, NOACs were equivalent to warfarin in preventing ischemic stroke (adjusted HR: 1.11, 95% CI, 0.86–0.43, p < 0.001), but NOACs were superior to warfarin in preventing hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted HR: 0.64, 95% CI, 0.55–0.74, p < 0.001).

Conclusions:

NOACs were generally superior to warfarin in terms of efficacy and safety in previous stroke patients. The robustness of our findings was verified and should add new information to current recommendations for Asian stroke patients in selecting NOACs.

Age-specific incidence rates of atrial fibrillation and risk factors for the future development of atrial fibrillation in the Japanese general population

BACKGROUND

Age-specific incidence rates of atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk factors for the development of AF have not been sufficiently determined in Japan.

METHODS

A total of 130,396 community dwellers in Iwate Prefecture who did not have AF as assessed by an electrocardiogram at the 2010 annual health check-up were enrolled. We checked cases of newly developed AF in the following 3-year check-ups (in 2011, 2012, and 2013). Age-specific incidence rates (in subjects aged 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older) of AF were determined in both sexes, and multivariate-adjusted logistic regression analysis was performed using incident AF as an independent variable and already known risk factors at the 2010 survey as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Age-specific incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) of AF in subjects aged 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older were 1.42, 3.84, 6.73, 8.53, and 14.13, respectively, in males and 0.12, 0.53, 2.15, 3.40, and 10.48, respectively, in females. Odds ratios for incident AF and their 95% confidence intervals were 1.20 (1.01-1.43) in subjects with hypertension, 1.55 (1.30-1.85) in overweight subjects, 1.79 (1.23-2.61) in subjects with coronary artery disease, and 1.29 (1.08-1.53) in subjects who drank every day among male subjects and they were 1.70 (1.19-2.45) in subjects with hypertension and 1.64 (1.17-2.30) in overweight subjects among female subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-specific incidence rates of AF in Iwate were determined. The results showed age, hypertension, obesity, coronary artery disease, and regular drinking habit significantly increased the risk of future development of AF.

CHA2DS2-VASc and readmission with new-onset atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, or acute cerebrovascular accident

BACKGROUND

Although risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) are known, identifying patients who will develop AF/AFL within the near future remains challenging. We sought to evaluate if the CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score (CVRS) can identify hospital readmissions with AF, AFL, or acute cerebrovascular accident (CVA) among hospitalized patients without prior history of AF/AFL.

METHODS

Using the Nationwide Readmission Database, a study cohort included patients without prior AF/AFL or new diagnosis of AF/AFL at the index hospitalization from 2012 to 2014. Patients were stratified based on the CVRS into three groups: Low (CVRS ≤1), Intermediate (CVRS 2-5), and High (CVRS ≥6).The primary outcome of interest was 180-day readmission rate with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF/AFL. Secondary outcomes of interest were acute CVA and 6-month mortality rate.

RESULTS

A total of 17,820,640 patients were included in our study. Over a 6-month follow up duration from the index hospitalization, the overall re-admission rate for new onset atrial arrhythmias (AF/AFL) was 3.48% (n = 620,986), acute CVA 0.13% (n = 22,522), and all-cause mortality 0.31% (n = 55,632). When compared to other groups, patients with a higher CVRS were readmitted more frequently for AF/AFL [odds ratio (OR) 2.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.41-2.45, P < .0001), acute CVA (OR 3.96; 95%CI 3.85-4.08, P < .0001), and all-cause mortality (OR 2.19; 95%CI 2.14-2.24, P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

In this large contemporary cohort, a CHADS2VA2SC score ≥ 6 identified patients without known prior atrial arrhythmias at an elevated risk of developing AF/AFL or acute CVA within 6 months of hospitalization.

Atrial Fibrillation With and Without Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Stroke Mortality

Aim: The association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk of stroke mortality among men and women without traditional cerebrocardiovascular risk factors (TCVRFs) is unclear. This study aimed to determine whether AF was a risk factor for stroke and total cardiovascular disease mortality among individuals without TCVRFs.

Methods: A total of 90,629 Japanese subjects from the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study aged 40–79 years, with and without TCVRFs, were studied from 1993 to 2013. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard regression model stratified by sex and the presence of TCVRFs. Covariates were age, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, and serum total cholesterol levels. A standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at rest was used to screen AF. Cause-specific mortality was classified according to the International Classification of Disease code.

Results: Compared with participants without AF, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for stroke mortality among participants without TCVRFs were 4.3 (1.1–17.8) and 15.0 (5.5–40.8) for men and women with AF, respectively. HRs for total cardiovascular disease mortality were 6.2 (2.8–14.2) for men and 10.7 (4.8–24.1) for women. For participants with TCVRFs, multivariable-adjusted HRs for stroke mortality were 3.1 (2.2–4.6) and 4.3 (2.6–7.3), whereas HRs for total cardiovascular disease mortality were 2.9 (2.2–3.8) and 3.5 (2.4–5.1) for men and women, respectively.

Conclusions: AF was found to be an independent risk factor for stroke and total cardiovascular mortality even in individuals without other TCVRFs.

The relationship between atrial fibrillation and frailty in community-dwelling older adults

OBJECTIVES

(1) To compare the frailty status between community-dwelling older adults with and without atrial fibrillation (AF) in Taiwan and (2) to test the hypothesis that AF is associated with frailty in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in several communities in Taipei. AF was confirmed by electrocardiogram recordings or medical diagnosis. Frailty status was assessed using both the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) frailty phenotype and Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS).

RESULTS

A total of 207 community-dwelling older adults voluntarily participated in this study, and 38 had AF. There was a significantly higher percentage of frailer (prefrail and frailty) older adults in the AF group (69 % vs. 36 %, p < 0.001) according to CHS phenotype, but no significant difference was detected by EFS criteria (92 % vs. 92 %, p = 0.966). The AF group showed significantly lower grip strength in men (26.8 ± 8.3 vs. 33.0 ± 6.9 kg, p =  0.006), walking speed (1.1 ± 0.3 vs. 1.2 ± 0.3 m/s, p =  0.003), and Timed Up and Go performance (8.8 ± 2.4 vs. 7.0 ± 1.9 s, p <  0.001) than the control group. The multiple logistic regression model showed that AF was an independent factor associated with frailer community-dwelling older adults after adjusted for covariates (odds ratio, 3.02; 95 % confidence interval, 1.32-6.89, p =  0.009).

CONCLUSION

Community-dwelling older adults with AF showed a significantly higher percentage of frailer individuals and lower physical function than those without AF. Furthermore, AF was an independent predictor of frailer community-dwelling older adults.

A Deep Learning Method to Detect Atrial Fibrillation Based on Continuous Wavelet Transform

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common arrhythmias. The automatic AF detection is of great clinical significance but at the same time it remains a big problem to researchers. In this study, a novel deep learning method to detect AF was proposed. For a 10 s length single lead electrocardiogram (ECG) signal, the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was used to obtain the wavelet coefficient matrix, and then a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a specific architecture was trained to discriminate the rhythm of the signal. The ECG data in multiple databases were divided into 4 classes according to the rhythm annotation: normal sinus rhythm (NSR), atrial fibrillation (AF), other types of arrhythmia except AF (OTHER), and noise signal (NOISE). The method was evaluated using three different wavelet bases. The experiment showed promising results when using a Morlet wavelet, with an overall accuracy of 97.56%, an average sensitivity of 97.56%, an average specificity of 99.19%. Besides, the area under curve (AUC) value is 0.9983, which showed that the proposed method was effective for detecting AF.

Association of atrial fibrillation and clinical outcomes in adults with chronic kidney disease: A propensity score-matched analysis

Objective

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcomes in the general population, but its impact on patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains unclear. In this study, we assessed the association between AF and risks of all-cause mortality and stroke in Chinese adults with CKD.

Methods

We enrolled adults aged 45 years or older with CKD (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m² and/or proteinuria identified using the urine dipstick method) from the Kailuan study between 2008 and 2014. AF was identified by 12-lead electrocardiography or hospital discharge diagnostic codes. Mortality data were collected from the provincial vital statistics, and physician-diagnosed ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke was confirmed in the biennial interview.

Results

Among the 21587 CKD adults, 216 patients were identified with AF, the median follow-up duration was 5.21 years (5.69 ± 1.96 years); During follow-up, there were 70 cases of death, and 16 cases of ischemic stroke and 6 cases of hemorrhagic stroke in the participants with AF in comparison with 2572 cases of death and 656 cases of ischemic stroke and 184 cases of hemorrhagic stroke among the participants without AF. After adjustment for potential confounders, AF was associated with an 86% increase in the rate of death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33–2.59, P<0.001), a 104% (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.09–3.83, P = 0.026) and 325% (HR, 4.25; 95% CI, 1.74–10.36, P = 0.001) increase in the rate of ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively. These associations were still consistent and strong after propensity score-matched analysis.

Conclusion

Our study shows that AF is independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in Chinese CKD adults. Future studies are required to elucidate the physiological mechanisms underlying this association.

Stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation changes after dabigatran availability in China: The GLORIA-AF registry

Background

Until the approval of dabigatran etexilate, treatment choices for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) were vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or antiplatelet drugs. This analysis explored whether availability of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants post-dabigatran approval was associated with changing treatment patterns in China.

Methods

Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF) collected data on antithrombotic therapy choices for patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular AF at risk for stroke. In China, enrollment in phase 1 (before dabigatran approval) and phase 2 (after dabigatran approval) occurred from 2011 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014, respectively. Analyses were restricted to sites within China that contributed patients to both phases. The weighted average of the site-specific results was estimated for standardization. Sensitivity analyses used multiple regression.

Results

Thirteen sites participated in both phase 1 (419 patients) and phase 2 (276 patients), 76.1% and 16.0% were known to be at high risk for stroke (CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥2) and bleeding (HAS-BLED ≥3); 55.5% were male. In phase 1, 16.7%, 61.6%, and 21.7% of patients were prescribed oral anticoagulants (OACs), antiplatelet agents, and no treatment, respectively. Respective proportions were 26.4%, 40.6%, and 33.0% in phase 2. The absolute increase in the site-standardized proportion of patients prescribed OACs after dabigatran availability was 9.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.7%-16.0%). There was a standardized 17.3% (95% CI: -24.3% to -10.4%) absolute decrease in antiplatelet agent use.

Conclusions

There was an increase in OAC and decrease in antiplatelet agent prescription since dabigatran availability in China. However, a large proportion of AF patients at risk for stroke remained untreated.

The risk factors of new-onset atrial fibrillation after pacemaker implantation

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of newly detected atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients following dual-chamber pacemaker (PPM) implantation and to define the clinical predictors of new-onset AF in a Chinese cohort.

METHODS

A total of 219 patients without documented AF that underwent dual-chamber PPM implantation for sick sinus syndrome (SSS) (n = 88) or atrioventricular block (AVB) (n = 131) were prospectively studied. All patients were invited to follow-up at 1 month, 3 months and 6 months after the pacemaker implantation procedure, and once every 6 months thereafter. An atrial high-rate episode (AHRE) ≥5 min and an atrial rate ≥180 bpm was defined as AF.

RESULTS

During follow-up of 884 ± 180 days, AF was detected in 56 (26%) patients. Using Kaplan-Meier survival curves with Log-rank test, SSS patients with a cumulative percentage of ventricular pacing (Cum % VP) ≥60% had a significantly higher rate of new-onset AF compared to AVB patients (p = 0.026) and SSS patients with Cum % VP <60% (p = 0.018). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, higher Cum % VP independently predicted higher morbidity of newly detected AF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.01; confidence interval [CI] 1.00 ~ 1.02; p = 0.035) among SSS patients. Larger left atrial (LA) dimension was a predictor of newly detected AF (HR 1.06; CI 1.01 ~ 1.14; p = 0.046) in AVB patients.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of AF following dual-chamber PPM implantation was relatively high in this Chinese cohort. High Cum % VP and larger LA dimension could independently predict new-onset AF after dual-chamber PPM implantation in SSS and AVB patients, respectively.

Echocardiographic Evaluation of Left Atrial Function to Discriminate Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation Development in Patients with Apical Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

Data is limited on baseline left atrial (LA) myocardial mechanics between apical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (ApHCM) patients who develop non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) during follow-up and those who do not.

METHODS

This retrospective study investigated the clinical outcomes of consecutive patients newly diagnosed with ApHCM between August 2011 and July 2014 who were followed-up for at least 3 years. The patients underwent 12-lead surface electrocardiography and/or 24-hour Holter electrocardiography at least once a year. The patients were divided into two groups, namely those who did or did not exhibit NVAF during follow-up, respectively. The baseline clinical and echocardiographic data of the two groups were compared.

RESULTS

Twenty patients were studied, five of whom were lost to follow-up. Of the remaining 15 ApHCM patients, seven developed NVAF. No differences were observed in the clinical characteristics of the two groups. However, for the echocardiographic data, the NVAF development group exhibited a larger LA volume and impaired LA reservoir, conduit and booster functions. The NVAF development group also showed lower peak LA strain and stiffer left atrium. The LA volume, function, global strain and stiffness were all statistically associated with NVAF development. Among these parameters, a LA conduit function of ≤ 24.9% was found to be the best parameter to discriminate NVAF development.

CONCLUSIONS

The baseline LA function was impaired in the ApHCM patients who subsequently developed NVAF during follow-up. A LA conduit function of ≤ 24.9% was strongly associated with NVAF development.

Racial Differences in Atrial Fibrillation Epidemiology, Management, and Outcomes

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia encountered in clinical practice and is associated with significant morbidity and healthcare cost. Most of the AF studies have predominantly included white population, with under-representation of minority population. In this review, we analyze the racial differences in epidemiology, disease awareness, risk factors, genetics, treatments, and outcomes of AF.

RECENT FINDINGS

African Americans have a higher prevalence of established AF risk factors but lower incidence and prevalence of AF than non-Hispanic whites. There is also a significant racial and ethnic differences in the prevalence of AF-related symptoms and the detection and awareness of AF. Non-white patients are afforded decreased use of rhythm control treatment strategies and anticoagulation both with warfarin and NOACs for stroke prevention. They are less likely to receive catheter ablation (CA) of AF, compared with non-Hispanic whites. AF in the minority racial and ethnic groups carries increased morbidity and mortality compared with white groups, especially in the black individuals with AF, who have been shown to have a lower QoL compared with their white or Hispanic counterparts. Minorities experience stroke more frequently than the whites which is usually more severe and disabling. There are significant racial differences in AF risk factors, manifestations, management, and outcomes. Recognition of these differences will aid in developing better preventive and treatment strategies for AF to decrease morbidity and mortality. In addition, this knowledge will enhance our understanding regarding the pathophysiology of AF including genetic predisposition.

Age-Specific Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Cardiovascular Mortality Among Japanese Men and Women (The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study [IPHS])

The age-specific impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on cardiovascular diseases remains unclear. A total of 90,629 participants who were from 40 to 79 years of age in 1993 were followed up until 2013 as part of the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study. Hazard ratios for mortality stratified by gender and age groups were calculated using Cox's proportional hazards regression models. A total of 22,794 patients (11,329 men and 11,465 women) died during the follow-up period, including 6,684 patients who died of cardiovascular causes (2,951 men and 3,733 women). On multivariable analysis, participants with AF had an increased risk of cardiovascular-related mortality compared with those without AF. Among participants aged 40 to 64 years, the adjusted hazard ratios were 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0 to 5.3) for men and 7.1 (95% CI 3.2 to 16.0) for women; the corresponding adjusted hazard ratios among participants aged 65 to 79 years were 3.0 (95% CI 2.2 to 4.0) for men and 3.7 (95% CI 2.5 to 5.4) for women. No significant difference in hazard ratios between age groups was found for either gender. AF was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in each age and gender group; again, no significant difference in hazard ratios between the age groups was found in terms of AF. AF may be an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and all-cause mortalities regardless of age.

Underuse of Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation in China

Anticoagulant therapy is an effective stroke prevention measurement for subjects with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are at high risk of ischemic stroke. However, it is reported that oral anticoagulants (OACs) are generally underused in clinical practice. A better awareness of current usage of anticoagulant therapy would enable prevention of stroke secondary to AF. Therefore, we determined the nationwide prevalence of AF and the frequency of OACs use among patients with ischemic stroke in China. Based on the China National Stroke Screening Survey, a representative nationwide sample of 1,252,703 adults over 40 years old during 2013 and 2014 was involved. Information on demographic data, diagnosis of stroke, behavioral risk factors, family history of stroke, related diseases, and medications was collected. The community-based survey data showed that 5,588 patients (12.0%) with ischemic stroke had previous, or newly diagnosed, AF. Therefore, more than 2.15 million ischemic stroke patients had AF in China. Among ischemic stroke patients with AF, the strongest risk factor was coronary heart disease (odds ratio = 2.53), whereas dyslipidemia accounted for the largest contribution (population-attributable risk proportion = 17.33%). Of ischemic stroke patients with AF, only 2.2% had taken OACs; of them, 98.2% had taken warfarin. In conclusion, a large number of ischemic stroke patients with AF are significantly undertreated with OACs in China. This highlights the need for improvement of prevention of ischemic stroke secondary to AF.

Associations between socioeconomic status, atrial fibrillation, and outcomes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a growing epidemic and evidence of a relationship to socioeconomic status (SES) is inconsistent. We aimed to summarize the literature about SES and AF and defined two objectives: (1) To examine the association between SES and the risk of AF; (2) To examine the association between SES and AF-related outcomes in an AF-population.

METHODS

We performed a separate search for each objective in Ovid-MEDLINE and Ovid-Embase. For objective 1, the population included was healthy participants and outcome of interest was AF. For objective 2, the population included were patients with AF and outcome of interest was mortality, treatment, ablation for AF, knowledge about AF, and morbidity.

RESULTS

For objective 1, 12 studies were included. No consistent pattern for an association between SES and the risk of AF was discovered. For objective 2, 39 studies comprising 42 outcomes were included. The majority of studies showed an association between low SES and increased mortality and morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Low SES was associated with poorer outcomes when AF was present. These findings may imply that health-care professionals and policy interventions should focus on the promotion of AF-education and management among patients with AF and low SES.

A Simple Clinical Risk Score (C2HEST) for Predicting Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Asian Subjects: Derivation in 471,446 Chinese Subjects, With Internal Validation and External Application in 451,199 Korean Subjects

BACKGROUND

The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, conferring a major health-care issue in Asia. No risk score for predicting incident AF has been specifically developed in Asian subjects. Our aim was to investigate risk factors for incident AF in Asian subjects and to combine them into a simple clinical risk score.

METHODS

Risk factors for incident AF were analyzed in 471,446 subjects from the Chinese Yunnan Insurance Database (internal derivation cohort) and then combined into a simple clinical risk score. External application of the new score was performed in 451,199 subjects from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (external cohort).

RESULTS

In the internal cohort, structural heart disease (SHD), heart failure (HF), age ≥ 75 years, coronary artery disease (CAD), hyperthyroidism, COPD, and hypertension were associated with incident AF. Given the low prevalence and the strong association of SHD with incident AF (hazard ratio, 26.07; 95% CI, 18.22-37.30; P < .001), these patients should be independently considered as high risk for AF and were excluded from the analysis. The remaining predictors were combined into the new simple C₂HEST score: C₂: CAD/COPD (1 point each); H: hypertension (1 point); E: elderly (age ≥ 75 years, 2 points); S: systolic HF (2 points); and T: thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism, 1 point). The C₂HEST score showed good discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) and had good calibration (P = .774). The score was internally validated by bootstrap sampling procedure, giving an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77). External application gave an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.65-0.66). The C₂HEST score was superior to CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores in both cohorts in predicting incident AF.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated the C₂HEST score as a simple clinical tool to assess the individual risk of developing AF in the Asian population without SHD.

Risk of Incident Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation after Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury

The influence of acute kidney injury (AKI) on subsequent incident atrial fibrillation (AF) has not yet been fully addressed. This retrospective nationwide cohort study was conducted using Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2010. A total of 41,463 patients without a previous AF, mitral valve disease, and hyperthyroidism who developed de novo dialysis-requiring AKI (AKI-D) during their index hospitalization were enrolled. After propensity score matching, “non-recovery group” (n = 2895), “AKI-recovery group” (n = 2895) and “non-AKI group” (control group, n = 5790) were categorized. Within a follow-up period of 6.52 ± 3.88 years (median, 6.87 years), we found that the adjusted risks for subsequent incident AF were increased in both AKI-recovery group (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.30; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.07–1.58; p ≤ 0.01) and non-recovery group (aHR = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.36–1.94) compared to the non-AKI group. Furthermore, the development of AF carried elevated risks for major adverse cardiac events (aHR = 2.11; 95% CI, 1.83–2.43), ischemic stroke (aHR = 1.33; 95% CI, 1.19–1.49), and all stroke (aHR = 1.28; 95% CI, 1.15–1.43). (all p ≤ 0.001, except otherwise expressed) The authors concluded that AKI-D, even in those who withdrew from temporary dialysis, independently increases the subsequent risk of de novo AF.

Cost-effectiveness of the pharmacist-assisted warfarin monitoring program at a Medical Center in Taiwan

Objective

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of the first patient self-paying pharmacist-assisted warfarin monitoring (PAWM) program in Taiwan.

Design

A Markov model with a 1-month cycle length and a 20-year time horizon was employed in this study. The model is composed of the following eight states: three no-event states (i.e. 'subtherapeutic,' 'within therapeutic' and 'supratherapeutic' states), two serious adverse events (AEs) (i.e. bleeding and thromboembolism), two sequelae states and death. The likelihood of events, costs and utilities were derived from local databases and literature, if applicable. This study was conducted with a payer's perspective and all costs were discounted with a rate of 3%.

Setting

A pharmacist-led clinic.

Participants

A hypothetical cohort of 10 000 participants.

Intervention(s)

PAWM versus usual care.

Main outcome measure(s)

Average quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and cost increments per patient, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results

The PAWM program resulted in an average of 0.13 QALYs gained and a cost increment of NT$53 850 (US$1683) per patient. As the ICER (NT$410 749 [US$12 836]) was less than the gross domestic product per capita (NT$631 142 [US$19 723]), the PAWM was considered to be very cost-effective. The sensitivity analyses suggested that our result was robust and that the PAWM program had an 86% probability of being very cost-effective.

Conclusions

Even if the costs saved from avoiding AEs were thought to be minimal due to the low-medical expenditures in Taiwan, the PAWM program was demonstrated to be economical. According to our findings, the policymakers should consider reimbursing such a service.

Digoxin and Amiodarone on the Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation: An Observational Study

Purpose: The present study compared the risk of ischemic stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients receiving digoxin and amiodarone.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the longitudinal population-based database of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program. Patients with AF who received amiodarone or digoxin and were considered to have exposed to study drugs consecutively over 180 days during 2000–2010 were enrolled and divided into three groups: those who received amiodarone, digoxin, and amiodarone plus digoxin. All patients were followed from the index date to the occurrence of ischemic stroke, death, withdrawal from the insurance program, or December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard regression models were applied to determine the risk of ischemic stroke and associated risk factors.

Results: The amiodarone, digoxin, and amiodarone plus digoxin cohorts comprised 797, 1419, and 376 patients, respectively. Overall, the patients who received digoxin (HR = 1.80; 95% CI = 1.41–2.31) or amiodarone plus digoxin (HR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.49–2.68) had a higher risk of ischemic stroke, compared with those who received amiodarone. This risk was particularly at CHA₂DS₂VASc score of 2–5, but disappeared in those who received clopidogrel in the digoxin cohort. The risk of ischemic stroke in the amiodarone plus digoxin cohort did not differ significantly from that in the digoxin cohort (HR = 1.14; 95% CI = 0.90–1.44).

Conclusion: Atrial fibrillation patients receiving digoxin are associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke than are those receiving amiodarone. It is prudent to assess the stroke risk prior to applying treatment strategy for patients with AF.

Strengths and Limitations of This Study 

         - This study is a population-based design with a completeness and accuracy of data, national coverage in both study and control cohorts. All insurance claims were double-checked by medical specialists for peer review.

         - Information about serum levels of the drugs, coagulation status, and types of AF were unavailable in this administrative database.

Optimal Thromboprophylaxis in Elderly Chinese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (ChiOTEAF) registry: protocol for a prospective, observational nationwide cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a worldwide healthcare burden that is associated with the ageing population. Elderly patients with AF with multiple comorbidities usually present with a high risk of thromboembolism and bleeding. Limited prospective data are available from Asian cohorts on the epidemiology and complications of AF. The present prospective cohort study aims to explore contemporary antithrombotic strategies among the elderly Chinese population in the new era of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants and to compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes between Chinese and European AF populations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Optimal Thromboprophylaxis in Elderly Chinese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (ChiOTEAF) registry will recruit 5000 patients with AF over 65 years of age in China. AF-related risks, including stroke/systemic thromboembolism and bleeding outcomes, will be assessed. Medical history, risk factors, demographic information and management will be collected at baseline, and clinical events during 1 year follow-up will be recorded. Follow-up will be conducted for at least 1 year and then annually thereafter. As our registry has a common protocol to the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme AF general registry programme, preplanned analyses comparing the clinical profiles and outcomes will be performed. The ChiOTEAF registry offers an opportunity to provide a better understanding of the clinical profiles and adverse outcomes of patients with AF in China and allow for comparisons with a contemporary European population.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was granted by the Central Medical Ethic Committee of Chinese PLA General Hospital (approval no S2014-065-01). The (inter)national research presentations, peer-reviewed publications and media coverage of the research will be sued for dissemination of the results.

Lipid profile and incidence of atrial fibrillation: A prospective cohort study in China

BACKGROUND

The association between dyslipidemia, a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and atrial fibrillation (AF) is not clear because of limited evidence.

HYPOTHESIS

Dyslipidemia may be associated with increased risk of AF in a Chinese population.

METHODS

A total of 88 785 participants free from AF at baseline (2006-2007) were identified from the Kailuan Study. Fasting levels of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) were measured at baseline using standard procedures. The study population was stratified based on quartiles of lipid profile. Incident AF was ascertained from electrocardiograms at biennial follow-up visits (2008-2015). The associations between incident AF and the different lipid parameters (TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG) were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up period of 7.12 years, 328 subjects developed AF. Higher TC (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43-0.84) and LDL-C (HR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.43-0.83) levels were inversely associated with incident AF after multivariable adjustment. HDL-C and TG levels showed no association with newly developed AF. The results remained consistent after exclusion of individuals with myocardial infarction or cerebral infarction, or those on lipid-lowering therapy. Both TC/HDL-C and LDL-C/HDL-C ratios were inversely associated with risk of AF (per unit increment, HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.79-0.98 and HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.91, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

TC and LDL-C levels were inversely associated with incident AF, whereas no significant association of AF with HDL-C or TG levels was observed.

Use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for risk stratification and relationship with time in therapeutic range in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation is one of the most common abnormal heart rhythms. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has emerged as a potential marker for the level of inflammation in cardiac disorders.

HYPOTHESIS

NLR might be associated with thrombosis and bleeding risk scores and might predict cardioembolic risk in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients within the therapeutic international normalized ratio (INR).

METHODS

We enrolled 272 patients taking warfarin for NVAF and classified them into 2 groups: Group A consisted of patients (n = 132) whose time in therapeutic range (TTR) was ≥65%, and Group B comprised patients (n = 139) whose TTR was <65%.

RESULTS

NLR values were higher in group B than in group A (P < 0.0001). Patients classified as high risk according to CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score had significantly higher NLR levels (P = 0.002) than those classified as low and intermediate risk. Furthermore, NLR levels were significantly correlated with CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc and HAS-BLED scores (P < 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). NLR predicted patients within therapeutic INR range (TTR ≥65%) with sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 71% in a receiver operator characteristic curve analysis, using a cutoff value of 2.17. Area under the curve for NLR was 0.81 (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study showing correlation of NLR with both CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores. NLR might represent a useful marker to identify patients with high risks of stroke and bleeding and may have predictive value in identifying patients within the therapeutic INR range.

Prognostic factors of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation during a 2-year follow-up in China: An observational cohort study

This study aimed to reveal the incidence of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) during a 2-year follow-up and evaluate the related prognostic factors of these endpoints.In total, 200 elderly patients with AF and 400 age- and sex-matched patients without AF were enrolled in this prospective observational cohort study. The incidence of clinical endpoints, including thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and all-cause death, during the 2-year follow-up was analyzed. Other follow-up data, including disease history, laboratory examinations, medication status, and other clinical endpoints, were collected. The prognostic factors of these clinical endpoints were then evaluated by Cox-survival analysis. In addition, the predicative role of C-reactive protein (CRP) and platelet-activating factor (PAF) on these clinical endpoints was analyzed.The incidence of clinical endpoints, including thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and all-cause death, was significantly higher in patients with AF than in those without AF (27.8% vs 9.8%, 29.4% vs 12.7%, and 28.7% vs 11.6%, respectively; all P < .001). Antithrombotic therapy significantly reduced the incidences of all-cause deaths (P < .05). Body mass index (BMI) and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of thromboembolism; age, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of hemorrhage and age, renal insufficiency history, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of all-cause death (P < .05). Further, both CRP and PAF were prognostic risk factors of thromboembolism and massive hemorrhage (P < .05).Age, BMI, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin appear to be prognostic risk factors of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with AF. Appropriate drug use during follow-up may be beneficial in preventing the occurrence of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with AF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR-OCH-13003479.

Cost-Effectiveness of Edoxaban vs. Warfarin in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Based on Results of the ENGAGE AF - TIMI 48 Trial: Taiwanese Perspective

BACKGROUND

Novel anticoagulants, such as factor Xa inhibitors, have entered clinical practice as alternatives to warfarin for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolic event (SEE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is not known whether edoxaban, the fourth-to-market factor Xa inhibitor approved for this indication, will be cost-effective in Taiwan, where the cost of warfarin monitoring is prohibitive.

METHODS

A Markov model projecting lifetime results of edoxaban 60 mg/30 mg dose-reduced versus warfarin in patients with nonvalvular AF, based on the ENGAGE AF - TIMI 48 trial, found edoxaban to be of high value relative to warfarin, from the perspective of the US health care system. We applied Taiwan-specific cost inputs to this model structure to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of edoxaban versus warfarin from the perspective of the Taiwanese health care system. Event rates and hazard ratios from the ENGAGE AF - TIMI 48 East Asian subpopulation were explored in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Edoxaban was found to be highly cost-effective compared with warfarin, based on guidelines proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with a base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $12,902 per quality-adjusted life year gained. These results were robust to variation of key model parameters, including assumptions regarding the cost and quality-of-life impact of stroke and bleeding events, and assuming East Asian-specific (as opposed to full-trial-population) rates for combinations of ischemic stroke, SEE, and major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite its higher acquisition cost, edoxaban is an economically attractive alternative to warfarin for the prevention of stroke and SEE in patients with AF in Taiwan.

2017 consensus of the Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society on stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia, causing a 2-fold increase in mortality and a 5-fold increase in stroke. The Asian population is rapidly aging, and in 2050, the estimated population with AF will reach 72 million, of whom 2.9 million may suffer from AF-associated stroke. Therefore, stroke prevention in AF is an urgent issue in Asia. Many innovative advances in the management of AF-associated stroke have emerged recently, including new scoring systems for predicting stroke and bleeding risks, the development of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs), knowledge of their special benefits in Asians, and new techniques. The Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) aimed to update the available information, and appointed the Practice Guideline sub-committee to write a consensus statement regarding stroke prevention in AF. The Practice Guidelines sub-committee members comprehensively reviewed updated information on stroke prevention in AF, emphasizing data on NOACs from the Asia Pacific region, and summarized them in this 2017 Consensus of the Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society on Stroke Prevention in AF. This consensus includes details of the updated recommendations, along with their background and rationale, focusing on data from the Asia Pacific region. We hope this consensus can be a practical tool for cardiologists, neurologists, geriatricians, and general practitioners in this region. We fully realize that there are gaps, unaddressed questions, and many areas of uncertainty and debate in the current knowledge of AF, and the physician׳s decision remains the most important factor in the management of AF.

Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: The Australian and Asia-Pacific Perspective

The epidemic of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasingly recognised as a growing health problem worldwide. Although epidemiological studies on AF in the Asia-Pacific region are scarce, given the increasing age and size of populations in this region, the burden of AF is expected to be far greater than in North America and Europe. This is not only due to the growing, ageing population but also an increased incidence of risk factors for AF, such as hypertension, obesity, metabolic syndrome and diabetes, in the Asia-Pacific region. While further, high quality data on such aspects as risk factors, racial disparities and clinical implications is urgently required, there is an immediate need for increased focus on appropriate stroke prophylaxis and risk factor management to minimise the clinical complications and societal burden of AF.

Mini-Review of the Chin-Shan Community Cardiovascular Cohort Study in Population Health Research in Taiwan

Preventing and controlling non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a growing global public health concern, and evidence-based data from population-based health studies are needed in order to develop appropriate public health policies for controlling NCDs. The Chin-Shan Community Cardiovascular Cohort (CCCC) study is a prospective cohort consisting of participants from one community in China in 1990-1991, and has provided substantial evidence-based data on domestic and global health issues in preventive cardiology fields. The present study is a mini-review of the CCCC study. In this review, we have described the historical background of the cardiovascular disease burden and related risk factors, especially lifestyle factors, subclinical disease markers, biomarkers and prediction models, and related international collaborative projects. In addition, this mini-review study provides a measure of insight into future plans for 21st century epidemiological research in cardiovascular diseases, suggesting possible areas of focus for future research.

Atrial Fibrillation: Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, and Clinical Outcomes

The past 3 decades have been characterized by an exponential growth in knowledge and advances in the clinical treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). It is now known that AF genesis requires a vulnerable atrial substrate and that the formation and composition of this substrate may vary depending on comorbid conditions, genetics, sex, and other factors. Population-based studies have identified numerous factors that modify the atrial substrate and increase AF susceptibility. To date, genetic studies have reported 17 independent signals for AF at 14 genomic regions. Studies have established that advanced age, male sex, and European ancestry are prominent AF risk factors. Other modifiable risk factors include sedentary lifestyle, smoking, obesity, diabetes mellitus, obstructive sleep apnea, and elevated blood pressure predispose to AF, and each factor has been shown to induce structural and electric remodeling of the atria. Both heart failure and myocardial infarction increase risk of AF and vice versa creating a feed-forward loop that increases mortality. Other cardiovascular outcomes attributed to AF, including stroke and thromboembolism, are well established, and epidemiology studies have championed therapeutics that mitigate these adverse outcomes. However, the role of anticoagulation for preventing dementia attributed to AF is less established. Our review is a comprehensive examination of the epidemiological data associating unmodifiable and modifiable risk factors for AF and of the pathophysiological evidence supporting the mechanistic link between each risk factor and AF genesis. Our review also critically examines the epidemiological data on clinical outcomes attributed to AF and summarizes current evidence linking each outcome with AF.

Patient Preferences for Oral Anticoagulation Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVES

Since the introduction of non-vitamin K antagonist (VKA) oral anticoagulants (NOACs), an additional treatment option, apart from VKAs, has become available for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). For various reasons, it is important to consider patients' preferences regarding type of medication, particularly in view of the established relationship between preferences towards treatment, associated burden of treatment, and treatment adherence. This review aimed to systematically analyse the scientific literature assessing the preferences of AF patients with regard to long-term oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE, Scopus and EMBASE databases (from 1980 to 2015), added records from reference lists of publications found, and conducted a systematic review based on all identified publications. Outcomes of interest included any quantitative information regarding the opinions or preferences of AF patients towards OAC treatment, ideally specified according to different clinical or convenience attributes describing different OAC treatment options.

RESULTS

Overall, 27 publications describing the results of studies conducted in 12 different countries were included in our review. Among these, 16 studies analysed patient preferences towards OACs in general. These studies predominantly assessed which benefits (mainly lower stroke risk) AF patients would require to tolerate harms (mainly higher bleeding risk) associated with an OAC. Most studies showed that patients were willing to accept higher bleeding risks if a certain threshold in stroke risk reduction could be reached. Nevertheless, most of the publications also showed that the preferences of AF patients towards OACs may differ from the perspective of clinical guidelines or the perspective of physicians. The remaining 11 studies included in our review assessed the preferences of AF patients towards specific OAC medication options, namely NOACs versus VKAs. Our review showed that AF patients prefer easy-to-administer treatments, such as treatments that are applied once daily without any food/drug interactions and without the need for bridging and frequent blood controls.

CONCLUSION

Stroke risk reduction and a moderate increase in the risk of bleeding are the most important attributes for an AF patient when deciding whether they are for or against OAC treatment. If different anticoagulation options have similar clinical characteristics, convenience attributes matter to patients. In this review, AF patients favour attribute levels that describe NOAC treatment.

2016 Guidelines of the Taiwan Heart Rhythm Society and the Taiwan Society of Cardiology for the management of atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia. Both the incidence and prevalence of AF are increasing, and the burden of AF is becoming huge. Many innovative advances have emerged in the past decade for the diagnosis and management of AF, including a new scoring system for the prediction of stroke and bleeding events, the introduction of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants and their special benefits in Asians, new rhythm- and rate-control concepts, optimal endpoints of rate control, upstream therapy, life-style modification to prevent AF recurrence, and new ablation techniques. The Taiwan Heart Rhythm Society and the Taiwan Society of Cardiology aimed to update the information and have appointed a jointed writing committee for new AF guidelines. The writing committee members comprehensively reviewed and summarized the literature, and completed the 2016 Guidelines of the Taiwan Heart Rhythm Society and the Taiwan Society of Cardiology for the Management of Atrial Fibrillation. This guideline presents the details of the updated recommendations, along with their background and rationale, focusing on data unique for Asians. The guidelines are not mandatory, and members of the writing committee fully realize that treatment of AF should be individualized. The physician's decision remains most important in AF management.