Use of Risk Assessment Tools to Guide Decision-Making in the Primary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Special Report From the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology

Ten-Year Risk Equations for Incident Heart Failure in Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Populations

BACKGROUND

Ten-year risk equations for incident heart failure (HF) are available for the general population, but not for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is highly prevalent in HF cohorts. This study aimed to develop and validate 10-year risk equations for incident HF in patients with known ASCVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Ten-year risk equations for incident HF were developed using the United Kingdom Biobank cohort (recruitment 2006-2010) including participants with established ASCVD but free from HF at baseline. Model performance was validated using the Australian Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute Biobank cohort (recruitment 2000-2011) and compared with the performance of general population risk models. Incident HF occurred in 13.7% of the development cohort (n=31 446, median 63 years, 35% women, follow-up 10.7±2.7 years) and in 21.3% of the validation cohort (n=1659, median age 65 years, 25% women, follow-up 9.4±3.7 years). Predictors of HF included in the sex-specific models were age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), cholesterol, smoking status, QRS duration, kidney disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation. ASCVD-HF equations had good discrimination and calibration in development and validation cohorts, with superior performance to general population risk equations.

CONCLUSIONS

ASCVD-specific 10-year risk equations for HF outperform general population risk models in individuals with established ASCVD. The ASCVD-HF equations can be calculated from readily available clinical data and could facilitate screening and preventative treatment decisions in this high-risk group.

Perspectives of Healthcare Professionals on Clinician-Patient Communication of Cardiovascular Disease Risk

When the consultation is predominantly verbal, existing research in clinician-patient communication indicates that many patients struggle to understand and recall medical consultations or may not understand the extent of their illness or the purpose of their treatment plan. When the clinician-patient discussion centers around the risk of a repeated cardiovascular disease (CVD) related event, qualitatively assessing what factors affect the communication of this risk may guide the creation of effective communication solutions. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 clinicians treating patients at stages along the cardiac rehabilitation patients' journey. Thematic analysis identified factors that prevent patients from understanding the risk they face of experiencing a repeated cardiac event. Results indicate a clearer understanding of the cardiac rehabilitation patient journey by means of a patient journey map; an overview of how CVD risk is currently communicated; and the factors that affect communication of these risks in the form of themes and sub-themes. Findings shape the proposal of an evidence informed model of opportunities for enhanced digital media supported communication in cardiac rehabilitation.

Use of Sequential Hot-Deck Imputation for Missing Health Care Systems Data for Population Health Research

Electronic medical record (EMR) data present many opportunities for population health research. The use of EMR data for population risk models can be impeded by the high proportion of missingness in key patient variables. Common approaches like complete case analysis and multiple imputation may not be appropriate for some population health initiatives that require a single, complete analytic data set. In this study, we demonstrate a sequential hot-deck imputation (HDI) procedure to address missingness in a set of cardiometabolic measures in an EMR data set. We assessed the performance of sequential HDI within the individual variables and a commonly used composite risk score. A data set of cardiometabolic measures based on EMR data from 2 large urban hospitals was used to create a benchmark data set with simulated missingness. Sequential HDI was applied, and the resulting data were used to calculate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores. The performance of the imputation approach was assessed using a set of metrics to evaluate the distribution and validity of the imputed data. Of the 567,841 patients, 65% had at least 1 missing cardiometabolic measure. Sequential HDI resulted in the distribution of variables and risk scores that reflected those in the simulated data while retaining correlation. When stratified by age and sex, risk scores were plausible and captured patterns expected in the general population. The use of sequential HDI was shown to be a suitable approach to multivariate missingness in EMR data. Sequential HDI could benefit population health research by providing a straightforward, computationally nonintensive approach to missing EMR data that results in a single analytic data set.

Nonobstructive epicardial coronary artery disease: an evolving concept in need of diagnostic and therapeutic guidance

For decades, we have been treating patients presenting with angina and concerning electrocardiographic changes indicative of ischemia or injury, in whom no culprit epicardial coronary stenosis was found during diagnostic coronary angiography. Unfortunately, the clinical outcomes of these patients were not better than those with recognized obstructive coronary disease. Improvements in technology have allowed us to better characterize these patients. Consequently, an increasing number of patients with ischemia and no obstructive coronary artery disease (INOCA) or myocardial infarction in the absence of coronary artery disease (MINOCA) have now gained formal recognition and are more commonly encountered in clinical practice. Although both entities might share functional similarities at their core, they pose significant diagnostic and therapeutic challenges. Unless we become more proficient in identifying these patients, particularly those at higher risk, morbidity and mortality outcomes will not improve. Though this field remains in constant flux, data continue to become available. Therefore, we thought it would be useful to highlight important milestones that have been recognized so we can all learn about these clinical entities. Despite all the progress made regarding INOCA and MINOCA, many important knowledge gaps continue to exist. For the time being, prompt identification and early diagnosis remain crucial in managing these patients. Even though we are still not clear whether intensive medical therapy alters clinical outcomes, we remain vigilant and wait for more data.

Causal association of metformin treatment with diverse cardiovascular diseases: a Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

The cardiovascular effects of metformin continue to be a subject of debate within the medical community.

METHODS

The Mendelian randomization (MR) study used data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to explore the causal association with six diseases that are associated with bimatoprost treatment and myocardial infarction, chronic heart failure, atrial fibrillation, hypertrophic and dilated cardiomyopathy, and valvular disease. Genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), that are associated with metformin use were selected as the instrumental variables. To determine the causal relationship between metformin use and various cardiovascular diseases, MR analysis was conducted, employing methods such as Instrumental Variable Weighting (IVW).

RESULTS

The IVW analysis demonstrated a positive association between metformin treatment and the risk of myocardial infarction (OR = 22.67, 95% CI 3.22-34.01; P = 0.002). Conversely, metformin treatment exhibited a negative association with the risk of developing valvular disease (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.00; P = 0.046) and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (OR = 0.01, 95% CI 0.00-0.22; P = 0.016). Multiple test correction found that metformin treatment was causally associated with the risk of both hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (PFDR = 0.048) and myocardial infarction (PFDR = 0.012). The analysis revealed limited heterogeneity in the individual results, absence of pleiotropy evidence, and indications of stability in the findings.

CONCLUSION

The MR study discovered from a genetic standpoint that metformin may lower the risk of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and valvular heart disease, yet it could elevate the risk of myocardial infarction.

Overcoming barriers to implementation: Improving incidental coronary calcium reporting on non-EKG gated chest CT scans

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend the reporting of incidental CAC on non-EKG-gated CT scans of the chest. The finding of incidental moderate or severe CAC on non-cardiac non-contrast chest CT correlates with a CAC score ≥ 100 Agatston units, a guideline-based indication for a clinician-patient discussion regarding the initiation of statin therapy. In contemporary practice, whether the presence and severity of incidental CAC are routinely reported on such CT scans of the chest is unknown.

METHODS

At a major university hospital, we collected a one-month convenience sample of 297 patients who had chest CT imaging for indications other than lung cancer screening (OICT) and 42 patients who underwent lung cancer chest CT screening (LSCT). We evaluated reporting patterns of incidental CAC in the body and impression of the reports as compared to the overreading of such studies by a board-certified CT chest radiologist. We hypothesized and demonstrated that there was underreporting of incidental CAC on these scans. We then undertook an initiative to educate reporting radiologists on the importance of reporting CAC and implemented a reporting template change to encourage routine reporting. Then we repeated another one-month sample (n= 363 for the OICT and n= 63 for the LSCT groups) to evaluate reporting patterns following our intervention.

RESULTS

The presence of incidental moderate and severe CAC was systematically underreported in the OICT group (0 and 4.8 %) and the severity was never mentioned in the impression of reports. In the LSCT group, the presence of incidental moderate and severe CAC was also underreported (66.7 % and 75 %) and the severity of CAC was mentioned 50 % of the time in the impression of the reports. Following the initiation of an educational program and radiology reporting template change, there was a significant increase in reporting of moderate or severe CAC in the OICT group (0 vs. 80.0 %, p < 0.001) and (4.8 vs. 93.5 %, p < 0.001) respectively and a significant increase in the reporting of the severity of incidental CAC for those with severe CAC in the LSCT group (50 vs. 94.1 %, p=0.006).

CONCLUSION

Despite guideline recommendations, Incidental CAC was underreported at a large academic center. We implemented a system that significantly improved reporting patterns of incidental CAC. Failure to report incidental CAC represents a missed opportunity to initiate preventive therapies. Hospital systems interested in improving the quality of their radiology reporting procedures should examine their practices to assure that CAC quantification is routinely performed.

Patient, family caregiver, and economic outcomes of an integrated screening and novel stepped collaborative care intervention in the oncology setting in the USA (CARES): a randomised, parallel, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

The current standard of care of screening and referring patients for treatment for symptoms, such as depression, pain, and fatigue, is not effective. This trial aimed to test the efficacy of an integrated screening and novel stepped collaborative care intervention versus standard of care for patients with cancer and at least one of the following symptoms: depression, pain, or fatigue.

METHODS

This randomised, parallel, phase 3 trial was conducted in 29 oncology outpatient clinics associated with the UPMC Hillman Cancer Center in the USA. Patients (aged ≥21 years) with any cancer type and clinical levels of depression, pain, or fatigue (or all of these) were eligible. Eligible family caregivers were aged 21 years or older and providing care to a patient diagnosed with cancer who consented for this study. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to stepped collaborative care or standard of care using a central, permuted block design (sizes of 2, 4, and 6) stratified by sex and prognostic status. The biostatistician, oncologists, and outcome assessors were masked to treatment assignment. Stepped collaborative care was once-weekly cognitive behavioural therapy for 50-60 min from a care coordinator via telemedicine (eg, telephone or videoconferencing). Pharmacotherapy for symptoms might be initiated or changed if recommended by the treatment team or preferred by the patient. Standard of care was screening and referral to a health-care provider for treatment of symptoms. The primary outcome was health-related quality of life in patients at 6 months. Maintenance of the treatment benefits was assessed at 12 months. Participants included in the primary analysis were per intention to treat, which included patients missing one or both follow-up assessments. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02939755).

FINDINGS

Between Dec 5, 2016, and April 8, 2021, 459 patients and 190 family caregivers were enrolled. 222 patients were assigned to standard of care and 237 to stepped collaborative care. Of 459 patients, 201 (44%) were male and 258 (56%) were female. Patients in the stepped collaborative care group had a greater 0-6-month improvement in health-related quality of life than patients in the standard-of-care group (p=0·013, effect size 0·09). Health-related quality of life was maintained for the stepped collaborative care group (p=0·74, effect size 0·01). Patients in the stepped collaborative care group had greater 0-6-month improvements than the standard-of-care group in emotional (p=0·012), functional (p=0·042), and physical (p=0·033) wellbeing. No adverse events were reported by patients in either group and deaths were considered unrelated to the study.

INTERPRETATION

An integrated screening and novel stepped collaborative care intervention, compared with the current standard of care, is recommended to improve health-related quality of life. The findings of this study will advance the implementation of guideline concordant care (screening and treatment) and has the potential to shift the practice of screening and treatment paradigm nationwide, improving outcomes for patients diagnosed with cancer.

FUNDING

US National Cancer Institute.

Coronary calcium score in patients with post-surgical hypoparathyroidism

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate the cardiovascular risk of patients with post-surgical hypoparathyroidism through coronary calcium score (CACS) evaluation andcardiovascular risk calculators.

Subjects and methods

Patients with post-surgical hypoparathyroidism (HG = 29) were compared to a control group (CG = 29), matched by sex and age. Demographic and clinical data were captured by a questionnaire or patient files. Both groups performed a thoracic-computed tomography to evaluate the CACS and the cardiovascular risk was calculated by two risk calculators.

Results

In the HG, the supplementation of calcium varied between 500 to 2,000 mg/day and the mean calcitriol was 0.5 ± 0.29 mcg/day. The mean serum calcium and phosphorus were 8.32 ± 0.68 and 4.92 ± 0.87 mg/dL, respectively, and in the range recommended for hypoparathyroidism. The Brazilian Society of Cardiology's risk calculator showed a difference among groups, with no patient in the HG with low risk, but the CACS was similar. A positive CACS in the HG was associated with obesity and high BMI but not with calcium and/or vitamin D supplementation.

Conclusion

In conclusion, patients with hypoparathyroidism did not show increased CACS, and it was not related to supplementation.

Novel Polygenic Risk Score and Established Clinical Risk Factors for Risk Estimation of Aortic Stenosis

Importance

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have proven to be as strong as or stronger than established clinical risk factors for many cardiovascular phenotypes. Whether this is true for aortic stenosis remains unknown.

Objective

To develop a novel aortic stenosis PRS and compare its aortic stenosis risk estimation to established clinical risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP; 2011-2020), UK Biobank (2006-2010), and 6 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials, including DECLARE-TIMI 58 (2013-2018), FOURIER (TIMI 59; 2013-2017), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (2010-2014), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (2010-2013), SOLID-TIMI 52 (2009-2014), and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (2008-2013), which were a mix of population-based and randomized clinical trials. Individuals from UK Biobank and the MVP meeting a previously validated case/control definition for aortic stenosis were included. All individuals from TIMI trials were included unless they had a documented preexisting aortic valve replacement. Analysis took place from January 2022 to December 2023.

Exposures

PRS for aortic stenosis (developed using data from MVP and validated in UK Biobank) and other previously validated cardiovascular PRSs, defined either as a continuous variable or as low (bottom 20%), intermediate, and high (top 20%), and clinical risk factors.

Main Outcomes

Aortic stenosis (defined using International Classification of Diseases or Current Procedural Terminology codes in UK Biobank and MVP or safety event data in the TIMI trials).

Results

The median (IQR) age in MVP was 67 (57-73) years, and 135 140 of 147 104 participants (92%) were male. The median (IQR) age in the TIMI trials was 66 (54-78) years, and 45 524 of 59 866 participants (71%) were male. The best aortic stenosis PRS incorporated 5 170 041 single-nucleotide variants and was associated with aortic stenosis in both the MVP testing sample (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.37-1.45 per 1 SD PRS; P = 4.6 × 10-116) and TIMI trials (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.62 per 1 SD PRS; P = 3.2 × 10-9). Among genetic and clinical risk factors, the aortic stenosis PRS performed comparably to most risk factors besides age, and within a given age range, the combination of clinical and genetic risk factors was additive, providing a 3- to 4-fold increased gradient of risk of aortic stenosis. However, the addition of the aortic stenosis PRS to a model including clinical risk factors only improved risk discrimination of aortic stenosis by 0.01 to 0.02 (C index in MVP: 0.78 with clinical risk factors, 0.79 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS; C index in TIMI: 0.71 with clinical risk factors, 0.73 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS).

Conclusions

This study developed and validated 1 of the first aortic stenosis PRSs. While aortic stenosis genetic risk was independent from clinical risk factors and performed comparably to all other risk factors besides age, genetic risk resulted in only a small improvement in overall aortic stenosis risk discrimination beyond age and clinical risk factors. This work sets the stage for further development of an aortic stenosis PRS.

Organ-specific biological clocks: Ageotyping for personalized anti-aging medicine

Aging is a complex multidimensional, progressive remodeling process affecting multiple organ systems. While many studies have focused on studying aging across multiple organs, assessment of the contribution of individual organs to overall aging processes is a cutting-edge issue. An organ's biological age might influence the aging of other organs, revealing a multiorgan aging network. Recent data demonstrated a similar yet asynchronous inter-organs and inter-individuals progression of aging, thereby providing a foundation to track sources of declining health in old age. The integration of multiple omics with common clinical parameters through artificial intelligence has allowed the building of organ-specific aging clocks, which can predict the development of specific age-related diseases at high resolution. The peculiar individual aging-trajectory, referred to as ageotype, might provide a novel tool for a personalized anti-aging, preventive medicine. Here, we review data relative to biological aging clocks and omics-based data, suggesting different organ-specific aging rates. Additional research on longitudinal data, including young subjects and analyzing sex-related differences, should be encouraged to apply ageotyping analysis for preventive purposes in clinical practice.

Dyslipidemia and cardiovascular disease among childhood cancer survivors: a St. Jude Lifetime Cohort report

BACKGROUND

Childhood cancer survivors have increased risk of dyslipidemia and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and associated cardiovascular risks of specific lipid abnormalities among childhood cancer survivors.

METHODS

Comprehensive lipid panel measurements were obtained from 4115 5-year survivors, with 3406 (mean age at evaluation = 35.2 years, SD = 10.4 years) not having previous dyslipidemia diagnosis, as well as 624 age, sex, and race and ethnicity matched community controls.

RESULTS

Previously undiagnosed dyslipidemia with abnormal low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (>160 mg/dL), non-high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (>190 mg/dL), HDL cholesterol (<40 mg/dL for men, <50 mg/dL for women), and triglycerides (>150 mg/dL) were identified in 4%, 6%, 30%, and 17%, respectively. Survivors without previous dyslipidemia diagnosis had higher LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol and lower HDL cholesterol than community controls. Cranial radiotherapy (relative risk [RR] = 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6 to 3.0 for non-HDL cholesterol) and total body irradiation for hematopoietic cell transplantation (RR = 6.7, 95% CI = 3.5 to 13.0 for non-HDL cholesterol; RR = 9.9, 95% CI = 6.0 to 16.3 for triglycerides) were associated with greater risk of dyslipidemia. Diagnoses of low HDL cholesterol (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.8 to 4.7) and elevated triglycerides (HR = 3.1, 95% CI = 1.9 to 5.1) were associated with increased risk for myocardial infarction, and diagnoses of high LDL cholesterol (HR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.3 to 3.7), high non-HDL cholesterol (HR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.3 to 3.7), low HDL cholesterol (HR = 3.9, 95% CI = 2.8 to 5.4), and elevated triglycerides (HR = 3.8, 95% CI = 2.7 to 5.5) were associated with increased risk for cardiomyopathy.

CONCLUSIONS

Previously undiagnosed dyslipidemia among childhood cancer survivors was associated with increased risk for myocardial infarction and cardiomyopathy. Comprehensive dyslipidemia evaluation and treatment are needed to reduce cardiovascular morbidity in this population.

AI-Guided Quantitative Plaque Staging Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients at Risk for Atherosclerotic CVD

BACKGROUND

The recent development of artificial intelligence-guided quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography analysis (AI-QCT) has enabled rapid analysis of atherosclerotic plaque burden and characteristics.

OBJECTIVES

This study set out to investigate the 10-year prognostic value of atherosclerotic burden derived from AI-QCT and to compare the spectrum of plaque to manually assessed coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), and clinical risk characteristics.

METHODS

This was a long-term follow-up study of 536 patients referred for suspected coronary artery disease. CCTA scans were analyzed with AI-QCT and plaque burden was classified with a plaque staging system (stage 0: 0% percentage atheroma volume [PAV]; stage 1: >0%-5% PAV; stage 2: >5%-15% PAV; stage 3: >15% PAV). The primary major adverse cardiac event (MACE) outcome was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The mean age at baseline was 58.6 years and 297 patients (55%) were male. During a median follow-up of 10.3 years (IQR: 8.6-11.5 years), 114 patients (21%) experienced the primary outcome. Compared to stages 0 and 1, patients with stage 3 PAV and percentage of noncalcified plaque volume of >7.5% had a more than 3-fold (adjusted HR: 3.57; 95% CI 2.12-6.00; P < 0.001) and 4-fold (adjusted HR: 4.37; 95% CI: 2.51-7.62; P < 0.001) increased risk of MACE, respectively. Addition of AI-QCT improved a model with clinical risk factors and CACS at different time points during follow-up (10-year AUC: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87] vs 0.73 [95% CI: 0.68-0.79]; P < 0.001; net reclassification improvement: 0.21 [95% CI: 0.09-0.38]). Furthermore, AI-QCT achieved an improved area under the curve compared to Coronary Artery Disease Reporting and Data System 2.0 (10-year AUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.83; P = 0.023) and manual QCT (10-year AUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.83; P = 0.040), although net reclassification improvement was modest (0.09 [95% CI: -0.02 to 0.29] and 0.04 [95% CI: -0.05 to 0.27], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Through 10-year follow-up, AI-QCT plaque staging showed important prognostic value for MACE and showed additional discriminatory value over clinical risk factors, CACS, and manual guideline-recommended CCTA assessment.

Lipoprotein(a): An important piece of the ASCVD risk factor puzzle across diverse populations

Elevated lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) is an independent, genetic risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that impacts ~1.4 billion people globally. Generally, Lp(a) levels remain stable over time; thus, most individuals need only undergo Lp(a) testing through a non-fasting blood draw once in their lifetime, unless elevated Lp(a) is identified. Despite the convenience of the test for clinicians and patients, routine Lp(a) testing has not been widely adopted. This review provides a guide to the benefits of Lp(a) testing and solutions for overcoming common barriers in practice, including access to testing and lack of awareness. Lp(a) testing provides the opportunity to reclassify ASCVD risk and drive intensive cardiovascular risk factor management in individuals with elevated Lp(a), and to identify patients potentially less likely to respond to statins. Moreover, cascade screening can help to identify elevated Lp(a) in relatives of individuals with a personal or family history of premature ASCVD. Overall, given the profound impact of elevated Lp(a) on cardiovascular risk, Lp(a) testing should be an essential component of risk assessment by primary and specialty care providers.

Incorporating longitudinal history of risk factors into atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk prediction using deep learning

It is increasingly clear that longitudinal risk factor levels and trajectories are related to risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) above and beyond single measures. Currently used in clinical care, the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) are based on regression methods that predict ASCVD risk based on cross-sectional risk factor levels. Deep learning (DL) models have been developed to incorporate longitudinal data for risk prediction but its benefit for ASCVD risk prediction relative to the traditional Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) remain unknown. Our study included 15,565 participants from four cardiovascular disease cohorts free of baseline ASCVD who were followed for adjudicated ASCVD. Ten-year ASCVD risk was calculated in the training set using our benchmark, the PCE, and a longitudinal DL model, Dynamic-DeepHit. Predictors included those incorporated in the PCE: sex, race, age, total cholesterol, high density lipid cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension treatment and smoking. The discrimination and calibration performance of the two models were evaluated in an overall hold-out testing dataset. Of the 15,565 participants in our dataset, 2170 (13.9%) developed ASCVD. The performance of the longitudinal DL model that incorporated 8 years of longitudinal risk factor data improved upon that of the PCE [AUROC: 0.815 (CI 0.782-0.844) vs 0.792 (CI 0.760-0.825)] and the net reclassification index was 0.385. The brier score for the DL model was 0.0514 compared with 0.0542 in the PCE. Incorporating longitudinal risk factors in ASCVD risk prediction using DL can improve model discrimination and calibration.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk profile of patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with tenofovir alafenamide or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for 96 weeks

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who switch from tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) to tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) show changes in lipid profiles.

AIM

To evaluate how these changes affect cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

This pooled analysis, based on two large prospective studies, evaluated fasting lipid profiles of patients with CHB who were treated with TAF 25 mg/day or TDF 300 mg/day for 96 weeks. Patients who fulfilled the American College of Cardiology criteria (age 40-79 years, high-density lipoprotein [HDL] 20-100 mg/dL, total cholesterol [TC] 130-320 mg/dL and systolic blood pressure 90-200 mmHg) required to assess 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk with baseline lipid data and at least one post-baseline measurement were included in the ASCVD-risk population. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated for patients in this population, and changes from baseline to Week 96 were assessed using intermediate- (≥7.5%) and high-risk (≥20%) cut-offs.

RESULTS

Among 1632 patients, 620 (38%) met the criteria for the ASCVD-risk population. At Week 96, fasting levels of all lipids, except TC:HDL ratio, were lower with TDF than TAF. No significant increase was observed in overall ASCVD risk or in any ASCVD-risk categories during the 96-week treatment period compared with baseline. A similar proportion of patients in the TAF and TDF treatment groups (1.3% and 2.3%, respectively; p = 0.34) reported cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSION

Despite on-treatment differences in lipid profiles with TAF and TDF, predicted cardiovascular risk and clinical events were similar for both groups after 96 weeks.

Impact of updated hypertension guideline on eligibility for an employee wellness program

BACKGROUND

Pharmacists reduce overall healthcare spending in employee wellness programs (EWP). Employers implementing disease state management in an EWP must define the eligibility criteria. Clinical practice guidelines establish diagnostic criteria; therefore, updated guidelines have the potential to change the number of eligible beneficiaries in an EWP. No studies have analyzed the effects of using updated guideline-recommended criteria on the change in eligibility, enrollment, and indirectly, workload for program practitioners which may impact program administration cost.

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to determine the impact of changing the blood pressure (BP) threshold for eligibility on the number of eligible beneficiaries in an EWP to that recommended by the ACC/AHA 2017.

METHODS

Balls Food Stores (BFS) provides services within an EWP called Start Now including annual biometric screenings, a health risk assessment (HRA), and pharmacist-led disease-state coaching for select beneficiaries with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or both (SN-DM and SN-CV, respectively). Enrollment in SN-CV is offered to beneficiaries if they have a qualifying diagnosis or biometric screening result. To determine the process for evaluating the effect of new eligibility criteria on potential enrollment in SN-CV, a retrospective evaluation was conducted using 2018 beneficiary data. The primary outcome measure was the difference in number of beneficiaries identified using current eligibility criteria (based on JNC8) and those potentially eligible using ACC/AHA 2017.

RESULTS

There were 1427 beneficiaries, of which 309 beneficiaries were eligible for disease-state coaching prior to 2018 and 187 beneficiaries were identified in 2018 using current eligibility criteria. Using proposed ACC/AHA 2017 criteria, 113 additional beneficiaries would potentially be eligible for SN-CV.

CONCLUSION

The effect of the change in SN-CV eligibility criteria would increase effort to determine eligibility, number of beneficiaries eligible for the program, and labor cost.

Coronary and Extra-coronary Subclinical Atherosclerosis to Guide Lipid-Lowering Therapy

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss and review the technical considerations, fundamentals, and guideline-based indications for coronary artery calcium scoring, and the use of other non-invasive imaging modalities, such as extra-coronary calcification in cardiovascular risk prediction.

RECENT FINDINGS

The most robust evidence for the use of CAC scoring is in select individuals, 40-75 years of age, at borderline to intermediate 10-year ASCVD risk. Recent US recommendations support the use of CAC scoring in varying clinical scenarios. First, in adults with very high CAC scores (CAC ≥ 1000), the use of high-intensity statin therapy and, if necessary, guideline-based add-on LDL-C lowering therapies (ezetimibe, PCSK9-inhibitors) to achieve a ≥ 50% reduction in LDL-C and optimally an LDL-C < 70 mg/dL is recommended. In patients with a CAC score ≥ 100 at low risk of bleeding, the benefits of aspirin use may outweigh the risk of bleeding. Other applications of CAC scoring include risk estimation on non-contrast CT scans of the chest, risk prediction in younger patients (< 40 years of age), its value as a gatekeeper for the decision to perform nuclear stress testing, and to aid in risk stratification in patients presenting with low-risk chest pain. There is a correlation between extra-coronary calcification (e.g., breast arterial calcification, aortic calcification, and aortic valve calcification) and incident ASCVD events. However, its role in informing lipid management remains unclear. Identification of coronary calcium in selected patients is the single best non-invasive imaging modality to identify future ASCVD risk and inform lipid-lowering therapy decision-making.

Predicting Adverse Cardiac Events After Radiotherapy for Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Background

Radiotherapy may cause grade ≥3 cardiac events, necessitating a better understanding of risk factors. The potential predictive role of imaging biomarkers with radiotherapy doses for cardiac event occurrence has not been studied.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to establish the associations between cardiac substructure dose and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores and cardiac event occurrence.

Methods

A retrospective cohort analysis included patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy (2006-2018). Cardiac substructures, including the left anterior descending coronary artery, left main coronary artery, left circumflex coronary artery, right coronary artery, and TotalLeft (left anterior descending, left main, and left circumflex coronary arteries), were contoured. Doses were measured in 2-Gy equivalent units, and visual CAC scoring was compared with automated scoring. Grade ≥3 adverse cardiac events were recorded. Time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic modeling, the log-rank statistic, and competing-risk models were used to measure prediction performance, threshold modeling, and the cumulative incidence of cardiac events, respectively.

Results

Of the 233 eligible patients, 61.4% were men, with a median age of 68.1 years (range: 34.9-90.7 years). The median follow-up period was 73.7 months (range: 1.6-153.9 months). Following radiotherapy, 22.3% experienced cardiac events, within a median time of 21.5 months (range: 1.7-118.9 months). Visual CAC scoring showed significant correlation with automated scoring (r = 0.72; P < 0.001). In a competing-risk multivariable model, TotalLeft volume receiving 15 Gy (per 1 cc; HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.11-1.72; P = 0.004) and CAC score >5 (HR: 2.51; 95% CI: 1.08-5.86; P = 0.033) were independently associated with cardiac events. A model incorporating age, TotalLeft CAC (score >5), and volume receiving 15 Gy demonstrated a higher incidence of cardiac events for a high-risk group (28.9%) compared with a low-risk group (6.9%) (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Adverse cardiac events associated with radiation occur in more than 20% of patients undergoing thoracic radiotherapy within a median time of <2 years. The present findings provide further evidence to support significant associations between TotalLeft radiotherapy dose and cardiac events and define CAC as a predictive risk factor.

Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events

OBJECTIVE

Expressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group.

RESULTS

Ten-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the ≥75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6.

CONCLUSIONS

We established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.

How non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cirrhosis affect the heart

Liver diseases affect the heart and the vascular system. Cardiovascular complications appear to be a leading cause of death in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and cirrhosis. The predominant histological changes in the liver range from steatosis to fibrosis to cirrhosis, which can each affect the cardiovascular system differently. Patients with cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM) and NAFLD are at increased risk of impaired systolic and diastolic dysfunction and for suffering major cardiovascular events. However, the pathophysiological mechanisms behind these risks differ depending on the nature of the liver disease. Accurate assessment of symptoms by contemporary diagnostic modalities is essential for identifying patients at risk, for evaluating candidates for treatment, and prior to any invasive procedures. This review explores current perspectives within this field.

Dynamic Importance of Genomic and Clinical Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Over the Life Course

Importance

Earlier identification of high coronary artery disease (CAD) risk individuals may enable more effective prevention strategies. However, existing 10-year risk frameworks are ineffective at earlier identification. Understanding the variable importance of genomic and clinical factors across life stages may significantly improve lifelong CAD event prediction.

Objective

To assess the time-varying significance of genomic and clinical risk factors in CAD risk estimation across various age groups.

Design Setting and Participants

A longitudinal study was performed using data from two cohort studies: the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS) with 3,588 participants aged 19-57 years and the UK Biobank (UKB) with 327,837 participants aged 40-70 years. A total of 134,765 and 3,831,734 person-time years were observed in FOS and UKB, respectively.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HR) for CAD were calculated for polygenic risk scores (PRS) and clinical risk factors at each age of enrollment. The relative importance of PRS and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in predicting CAD events was also evaluated by age groups.

Results

The importance of CAD PRS diminished over the life course, with an HR of 3.58 (95% CI 1.39-9.19) at age 19 in FOS and an HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.48-1.54) by age 70 in UKB. Clinical risk factors exhibited similar age-dependent trends. PRS significantly outperformed PCE in identifying subsequent CAD events in the 40-45-year age group, with 3.2-fold more appropriately identified events. The mean age of CAD events occurred 1.8 years earlier for those at high genomic risk but 9.6 years later for those at high clinical risk (p<0.001). Overall, adding PRS improved the area under the receiving operating curve of the PCE by an average of +5.1% (95% CI 4.9-5.2%) across all age groups; among individuals <55 years, PRS augmented the AUC-ROC of the PCE by 6.5% (95% CI 5.5-7.5%, p<0.001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Genomic and clinical risk factors for CAD display time-varying importance across the lifespan. The study underscores the added value of CAD PRS, particularly among individuals younger than 55 years, for enhancing early risk prediction and prevention strategies.

Incorporating longitudinal history of risk factors into atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk prediction using deep learning

Background

It is increasingly clear that longitudinal risk factor levels and trajectories are related to risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) above and beyond single measures. Currently used in clinical care, the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) are based on regression methods that predict ASCVD risk based on cross-sectional risk factor levels. Deep learning (DL) models have been developed to incorporate longitudinal data for risk prediction but its benefit for ASCVD risk prediction relative to the traditional Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) remain unknown.

Objective

To develop a ASCVD risk prediction model that incorporates longitudinal risk factors using deep learning.

Methods

Our study included 15,565 participants from four cardiovascular disease cohorts free of baseline ASCVD who were followed for adjudicated ASCVD. Ten-year ASCVD risk was calculated in the training set using our benchmark, the PCE, and a longitudinal DL model, Dynamic-DeepHit. Predictors included those incorporated in the PCE: sex, race, age, total cholesterol, high density lipid cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension treatment and smoking. The discrimination and calibration performance of the two models were evaluated in an overall hold-out testing dataset.

Results

Of the 15,565 participants in our dataset, 2,170 (13.9%) developed ASCVD. The performance of the longitudinal DL model that incorporated 8 years of longitudinal risk factor data improved upon that of the PCE [AUROC: 0.815 (CI: 0.782-0.844) vs 0.792 (CI: 0.760-0.825)] and the net reclassification index was 0.385. The brier score for the DL model was 0.0514 compared with 0.0542 in the PCE.

Conclusion

Incorporating longitudinal risk factors in ASCVD risk prediction using DL can improve model discrimination and calibration.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Screening for Commercial Drivers Examined in Occupational Practice: Implementing Evidence-Based Practice to Champion the Health of Essential Workers

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States, with 20% of deaths in adults under age 65. Commercial drivers have an increased CVD incidence rate of 50% compared to 30% for the general population, yet one third of drivers will not be screened for risk factors due to a lack of insurance or primary care. With approximately 3.5 million commercial drivers nationally and correlation of CVD to increased motor vehicle accidents, fatalities, and excessive healthcare costs, addressing the care gap for this high-risk population is imperative.

METHODS

An evidence-based practice (EBP) project synthesized the literature and implemented CVD risk screening for commercial drivers examined in an occupational practice setting. Using the non-laboratory Framingham CVD risk score calculator, over 90% of drivers were screened during mandated medical examinations and provided education regarding modifiable risk factors during a 2-month period.

FINDINGS

Over 40% of commercial drivers were at high risk for CVD with 25% uninsured and 32% without primary care. The average CVD risk score was twice the general population's risk score, with obesity, hypertension, and smoking being the most common risk factors discussed.

CONCLUSIONS/APPLICATION TO PRACTICE

Incorporating CVD risk screening and education during opportune encounters is logical, efficient, and financially prudent. The EBP change supports occupational professionals' standards, and ongoing review of CVD screening guidelines with integration into practice provides health promotion and promotes public safety for these essential workers.

Evaluating Plasma Galectin-3 Levels in Patients With an Increased Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Who Underwent Coronary Artery Revascularization

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a common atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) associated with significant mortality. Galectin-3 is a novel inflammatory factor implicated in the initiation and progression of atherosclerosis. We aimed to evaluate the association of plasma galectin-3 with the risk of ASCVD and the need for coronary artery revascularization. Patients with angina who underwent coronary angiography were divided into groups per their risk of ASCVD. Patients (n = 385) were stratified into having low (n = 21), moderate (n = 40), high (n = 41), and very high risk (n = 283) for ASCVD. The mean age ± standard error of the mean was 53.9 ± 0.5 years and 73% of patients were men. Plasma galectin-3 levels were higher in patients with CAD than non-CAD primarily in patients with stable and unstable angina. Patients with stable CAD had higher levels of galectin-3 relative to acute coronary syndrome patients. Increased plasma galectin-3 level was associated with increased risk of ASCVD and degree of coronary stenosis. By multivariate analysis, the plasma galectin-3 level was independently associated with increased ASCVD risk and body mass index. Plasma galectin-3 levels were independently higher in patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) than medically treated patients. In addition, age, male gender, smoking, and diabetes mellitus were associated with PCI. In conclusion, plasma galectin-3 levels are elevated in patients with CAD and associated with increased risk of ASCVD and the need for PCI. Plasma galectin-3 could be used as a potential improving predictor of ASCVD risk and when making therapeutic guidance or selecting patients who underwent PCI when the decision is difficult.

Lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease stratified by traditional risk factors: Findings from the cohort of Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk (LTR) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Iranian population, stratified by sex and traditional risk factors including high body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, smoking, and hypercholesterolemia.

METHODS

We included 10222 (4430 men) participants aged ≥20 years without CVD at baseline. LTRs at index ages 20 and 40 years and number of years lived without CVD was estimated. We further assessed the effect of traditional risk factors on the LTR of CVD and the number of years lived without CVD, stratified by sex and index ages.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 18 years, 1326 participants (774 men) developed CVD and 430 (238 men) died from non-cardiovascular causes. At age 20, the remaining LTR for CVD was 66.7% (95% CI 62.9-70.4) in men and 52.0% (47.6-56.8) in women, with similar LTRs at age 40 for both men and women. The LTRs at both index ages for those with ≥3 risk factors were about 30% and 55% higher in men and women, respectively, than those without any of the five risk factors. At the age of 20, men with ≥3 risk factors lived 24.1 fewer years without CVD compared with men with no risk factors; the corresponding value was 8 years in their female counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that both sexes may benefit from effective prevention strategies early in the life course, despite the observed differences between men and women in LTR for CVD and number of years lived without CVD.

Clinical utility of a novel test for assessing cardiovascular disease risk in type 2 diabetes: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The risk for and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is often incorrect and delayed. We wished to determine if a novel test improved physicians' ability to risk stratify, diagnose, and treat patients with T2DM.

METHODS

In a 2-phase randomized controlled trial comparing the clinical workup, diagnosis, and management of online, simulated patients with T2DM in a nationwide sample of cardiologists and primary care physicians, participants were randomly assigned to control or one of two intervention groups. Intervention participants had access to standard of care diagnostic tools plus a novel diagnostic CVD risk stratification test.

RESULTS

In control, there was no change in CV risk stratification of simulated patients between baseline and round 2 (37.1 to 38.3%, p = 0.778). Pre-post analysis showed significant improvements in risk stratification in both Intervention 1 (38.7 to 65.3%) and Intervention 2 (41.9 to 65.8%) (p < 0.01) compared to controls. Both intervention groups significantly increased prescribing SGLT2 inhibitors/GLP1 receptor agonists versus control, + 18.9% for Intervention 1 (p = 0.020) and 1 + 9.4% for Intervention 2 (p = 0.014). Non-pharmacologic treatment improved significantly compared to control (+ 30.0% in Intervention 1 (p < 0.001) and + 22.8% in Intervention 2 (p = 0.001). Finally, monitoring HgbA1C, blood pressure, and follow-up visit frequency improved by + 20.3% (p = 0.004) in Intervention 1 and + 29.8% (p < 0.001) in Intervention 2 compared with control.

CONCLUSION

Use of the novel test significantly improved CV risk stratification among T2DM patients. Statistically significant increases treatments were demonstrated, specifically SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 receptor antagonists and recommendations of evidence-based non-pharmacologic treatments. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05237271.

Machine learning reveals sex-specific associations between cardiovascular risk factors and incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

We aimed to investigate sex-specific associations between cardiovascular risk factors and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk using machine learning. We studied 258,279 individuals (132,505 [51.3%] men and 125,774 [48.7%] women) without documented ASCVD who underwent national health screening. A random forest model was developed using 16 variables to predict the 10-year ASCVD in each sex. The association between cardiovascular risk factors and 10-year ASCVD probabilities was examined using partial dependency plots. During the 10-year follow-up, 12,319 (4.8%) individuals developed ASCVD, with a higher incidence in men than in women (5.3% vs. 4.2%, P < 0.001). The performance of the random forest model was similar to that of the pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, men: 0.733 vs. 0.727; women: 0.769 vs. 0.762). Age and body mass index were the two most important predictors in the random forest model for both sexes. In partial dependency plots, advanced age and increased waist circumference were more strongly associated with higher probabilities of ASCVD in women. In contrast, ASCVD probabilities increased more steeply with higher total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels in men. These sex-specific associations were verified in the conventional Cox analyses. In conclusion, there were significant sex differences in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and ASCVD events. While higher total cholesterol or LDL cholesterol levels were more strongly associated with the risk of ASCVD in men, older age and increased waist circumference were more strongly associated with the risk of ASCVD in women.

DNA Methylation of Birthweight-Blood Pressure Genes and Changes of Blood Pressure in Response to Weight-Loss Diets in the POUNDS Lost Trial

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation (DNAm) may play a critical role in bridging prenatal adverse events and cardiometabolic disorders including hypertension in later life.

METHODS

We included 672 adult participants with overweight or obesity, who participated in a 2-year randomized weight-loss dietary intervention study. We defined the regional DNAm levels as the average methylation level of 5'-cytosine-phosphate-guanine-3' within 500 bp of LINC00319 (cg01820192), ATP2B1 (cg00508575), and LMNA (cg12593793), respectively. Generalized linear regression models were used to assess the association between the regional DNAm and 2-year blood pressure changes. Trajectory analysis was used to identify subgroups that shared a similar underlying trajectory of 2-year blood pressure changes.

RESULTS

The regional DNAm at LINC00319, showed significantly different associations with 2-year changes in systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure among participants assigned to low- or high-fat diets (P for interaction<0.05 for all). In response to the low-fat diet, per SD higher regional DNAm at LINC00319 was associated with greater reductions in both 2-year changes in systolic blood pressure (β, -1.481; P=0.020) and diastolic blood pressure (β, -1.096; P=0.009). Three trajectories of changes in systolic blood pressure or diastolic blood pressure were identified, and participants with higher regional DNAm at LINC00319 were more likely to experience and maintain decreased systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure (odds ratio of being in decrease-stable versus stable [95% CI], 1.542 [1.146-2.076] and 1.463 [1.125-1.902]).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that DNAm could be a metabolic memory bridging early and later life, and an indicator of more benefits from eating a low-fat weight-loss diet.

(Poly)phenol intake, plant-rich dietary patterns and cardiometabolic health: a cross-sectional study

Diet is an important modifiable risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases. Plant foods contain a complex mixture of nutrients and bioactive compounds such as (poly)phenols. Plant-rich dietary patterns have been associated with reduced cardiometabolic risk in epidemiological studies. However, studies have not fully considered (poly)phenols as a mediating factor in the relationship. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted in 525 healthy participants, aged 41.6 ± 18.3 years. Volunteers completed the validated European Prospective Investigation into Diet and Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). We investigated the associations between plant-rich dietary patterns, (poly)phenol intake, and cardiometabolic health. Positive associations were found between (poly)phenols and higher adherence to dietary scores, except for the unhealthy Plant-based Diet Index (uPDI), which was negatively associated with (poly)phenol intake. Correlations were significant for healthy PDI (hPDI), with positive associations with proanthocyanidins (r = 0.39, p < 0.01) and flavonols (r = 0.37, p < 0.01). Among dietary scores, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) showed negative associations with diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (Non-HDL-C) (stdBeta -0.12 to -0.10, p < 0.05). The Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay (MIND) score was positively associated with flow-mediated dilation (FMD, stdBeta = 0.10, p = 0.02) and negatively associated with the 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score (stdBeta = -0.12, p = 0.01). Higher intake of flavonoids, flavan-3-ols, flavan-3-ol monomers, theaflavins, and hydroxybenzoic acids (stdBeta: -0.31 to -0.29, p = 0.02) also showed a negative association with a 10-year ASCVD risk score. Flavanones showed significant associations with cardiometabolic markers such as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (stdBeta = -0.11, p = 0.04), TC (stdBeta = -0.13, p = 0.03), and the Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) of beta cell function (%B) (stdBeta = 0.18, p = 0.04). Flavanone intake was identified as a potential partial mediator in the negative association between TC and plant-rich dietary scores DASH, Original Mediterranean diet scores (O-MED), PDI, and hPDI (proportion mediated = 0.01% to 0.07%, p < 0.05). Higher (poly)phenol intake, particularly flavanone intake, is associated with higher adherence to plant-rich dietary patterns and favourable biomarkers of cardiometabolic risk indicating (poly)phenols may be mediating factors in the beneficial effects.

Confirmation of Statin and Fibrate Use from Small-Volume Archived Plasma Samples by High-Throughput LC-MS/MS Method

Designing studies for lipid-metabolism-related biomarker discovery is challenging because of the high prevalence of various statin and fibrate usage for lipid-lowering therapies. When the statin and fibrate use is determined based on self-reports, patient adherence to the prescribed statin dose regimen remains unknown. A potentially more accurate way to verify a patient's medication adherence is by direct analytical measurements. Current analytical methods are prohibitive because of the limited panel of drugs per test and large sample volume requirement that is not available from archived samples. A 4-min-long method was developed for the detection of seven statins and three fibrates using 10 µL of plasma analyzed via reverse-phase liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry. The method was applied to the analysis of 941 archived plasma samples collected from patients before cardiac catheterization. When statin use was self-reported, statins were detected in 78.6% of the samples. In the case of self-reported atorvastatin use, the agreement with detection was 90.2%. However, when no statin use was reported, 42.4% of the samples had detectable levels of statins, with a similar range of concentrations as the samples from the self-reported statin users. The method is highly applicable in population studies designed for biomarker discovery or diet and lifestyle intervention studies, where the accuracy of statin or fibrate use may strongly affect the statistical evaluation of the biomarker data.

Impaired response of memory Treg to high density lipoproteins is associated with intermediate/high cardiovascular disease risk in persons with HIV

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of enhanced morbidity and mortality in persons with HIV (PWH) in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (AART). However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Regulatory T cells (Treg), notably the highly suppressive memory subset, have been shown to limit CVD. Importantly, memory Treg cell numbers remain low in many treated PWH. High density lipoproteins (HDL) also protect from CVD, and we previously found that Treg-HDL interactions reduce oxidative stress in these cells. Here, we evaluated Treg-HDL interactions in PWH and whether they were operative in those higher CVD risk. To do that, we recruited a cohort of PWH with intermediate/high CVD risk (median ASCVD risk score of 13.2%, n=15) or low/borderline risk (median ASCVD risk score of 3.6%, n=14), as well as a group of statins treated PWH with intermediate/high CVD risk (median ASCVD risk score of 12.7%, n=14). We evaluated Treg frequency, phenotype and response to HDL. PWH with Int/High CVD risk had a significantly lower number of memory Treg, but memory Treg were more activated and displayed an inflammatory phenotype, versus those with Low/BL CVD risk. In untreated patients, Treg absolute numbers were negatively correlated with ASCVD score. Although HDL decreased oxidative stress in memory Treg in all subjects, memory Treg from PWH with Int/High CVD risk were significantly less responsive to HDL than those from PWH with Low/BL CVD risk. The level of oxidative stress in memory Treg positively correlated with ASCVD scores. In contrast, plasma HDL from PWH, regardless of CVD risk, retained their anti-oxidative properties, suggesting that the defect in memory Treg response to HDL is intrinsic. Statin treatment partially ameliorated the memory Treg defect. In conclusion, the defective HDL-Treg interactions may contribute to the inflammation-induced increased CVD risk observed in many AART-treated PWH.

Clinical outcomes by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score and blood pressure level in high risk individuals with type 2 diabetes

Clinical practice guidelines for patients with diabetes recommend using blood pressure (BP) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to guide antihypertensive treatment. While this approach directs treatment to patients who should receive a large ASCVD risk reduction, its effect on other outcomes is uncertain. The aim of this study was to assess the contributions of systolic blood pressure level (SBP) and predicted 10-year ASCVD risk using Pooled Cohort risk equations to the prediction of major macrovascular disease, death and major microvascular disease in patients with diabetes. Data came from 7426 individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) without macrovascular disease at baseline in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial. The risk for major macrovascular events and death increased progressively across ASCVD risk categories. Compared to participants with 10-year predicted ASCVD risk <20% and SBP <130 mmHg, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals (CIs)) associated with SBP ≥150 mmHg and 10-year predicted ASCVD risk <20%, 20-34% and ≥35% were 1.01 (0.58, 1.77), 1.90 (1.28, 2.84) and 2.82 (1.98, 4.01) for major macrovascular disease, respectively, and 0.83 (0.42, 1.62), 1.79 (1.13, 2.82) and 3.29 (2.22, 4.88) for death, respectively. The risk for major microvascular disease increased with BP regardless of ASCVD risk; HRs for SBP ≥150 mmHg and 10-year predicted ASCVD risk <20%, 20-34% and ≥35% vs. ASCVD risk <20% and SBP <130 mmHg were 1.52 (1.08,2.13), 1.47 (1.10, 1.96) and 1.23 (0.94, 1.60), respectively. ASCVD risk in addition to SBP improved the estimation of major macrovascular events and death but not major microvascular events among individuals with T2D.

Recommended and observed statin use among U.S. adults - National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2011-2018

BACKGROUND

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Blood Cholesterol Guideline was published in 2013 (2013 Cholesterol Guideline) and the Multi-society Guideline on the Management of Blood Cholesterol in 2018 (2018 Cholesterol Guideline).

OBJECTIVE

To compare differences in population level estimates for statin recommendations and use between guidelines.

METHODS

Using four 2-year cycles from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2011-2018), we analyzed data from 8,642 non-pregnant adults aged ≥20 years with complete information for blood cholesterol measurements and other cardiovascular risk factors used to define treatment recommendations in the 2013 or 2018 Cholesterol Guidelines. We compared the prevalence of statin recommendations and use between the guidelines, overall and among patient management groups.

RESULTS

Under the 2013 Cholesterol Guideline, an estimated 77.8 million (33.6%) adults would be recommended statins, compared to 46.1 million (19.9%) recommended and 50.1 million (21.6%) considered for statins by the 2018 Cholesterol Guideline. Statin use among those recommended treatment was similar utilizing the 2018 Cholesterol Guideline (47.4%) compared to the 2013 Cholesterol Guideline (47.0%). Differences were observed across demographic and patient management groups.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the 2013 Cholesterol Guideline, the prevalence of statin recommendations decreased utilizing the 2018 Cholesterol Guideline algorithm, though additional persons would be considered for treatment after risk factor assessment and patient-clinician discussion under the 2018 Cholesterol Guideline. Statin use was suboptimal (<50%) for those recommended treatment under either guideline. Optimizing patient-clinician risk discussions and shared decision making may be needed to improve treatment rates.

Effects of aromatase inhibitor therapy on visceral adipose tissue area and cardiometabolic health in postmenopausal women with early and locally advanced breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

Aromatase inhibitor (AI) therapy provides oncological benefits in postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. However, AI treatment has been associated with increased cardiovascular risk. In nonbreast cancer populations, experimentally induced low oestrogen states and natural transition to menopause have been associated with increases in visceral adipose tissue (VAT), a known surrogate marker for cardiometabolic risk. Given that AI treatment blocks oestradiol production, we hypothesized that AI treatment would increase VAT.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective 12-month cohort study of 52 postmenopausal women newly initiating AI treatment (median age: 64.5 years) and 52 women with breast pathology not requiring endocrine therapy (median age: 63.5 years). VAT area and other body composition parameters were measured at baseline, 6 months and 12 months using dual X-ray absorptiometry. Other risk markers of cardiometabolic health were also assessed.

RESULTS

In women initiating AI treatment, there was no statistically significant difference in VAT area after 12 months when compared to controls, with a mean adjusted difference of -5.00 cm² (-16.9, 6.91), p = .55. Moreover, changes in total fat mass, lean mass, subcutaneous adipose tissue area, hepatic steatosis and measures in endothelial function were also not statistically different between groups after 12 months. Findings were similar after adjustments for activity levels and coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown duration.

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide reassurance that over the initial 12 months of AI therapy, AI treatment is not associated with metabolically adverse changes in body composition, hepatic steatosis or vascular reactivity. The impact of extended AI therapy on cardiometabolic health requires further study.

Risks and burdens of incident dyslipidaemia in long COVID: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Non-clinical evidence and a few human studies with short follow-ups suggest increased risk of dyslipidaemia in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 (ie, >30 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection). However, detailed large-scale controlled studies with longer follow-ups and in-depth assessment of the risks and burdens of incident dyslipidaemia in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 are not yet available. We, therefore, aimed to examine the risks and 1-year burdens of incident dyslipidaemia in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 among people who survive the first 30 days of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we used the national health-care databases of the US Department of Veterans Affairs to build a cohort of 51 919 participants who had a positive COVID-19 test and survived the first 30 days of infection between March 1, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021; a non-infected contemporary control group (n=2 647 654) that enrolled patients between March 1, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021; and a historical control group (n=2 539 941) that enrolled patients between March 1, 2018, and Jan 15, 2019. Control groups had no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and participants in all three cohorts were free of dyslipidaemia before cohort enrolment. We then used inverse probability weighting using predefined and algorithmically-selected high dimensional variables to estimate the risks and 1-year burdens of incident dyslipidaemia, lipid-lowering medications use, and a composite of these outcomes. We reported two measures of risk: hazard ratios (HRs) and burden per 1000 people at 12 months. Additionally, we estimated the risks and burdens of incident dyslipidaemia outcomes in mutually exclusive groups based on the care setting of the acute infection (ie, participants who were non-hospitalised, hospitalised, or admitted to intensive care during the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection).

FINDINGS

In the post-acute phase of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared with the non-infected contemporary control group, those in the COVID-19 group had higher risks and burdens of incident dyslipidaemia, including total cholesterol greater than 200 mg/dL (hazard ratio [HR] 1·26, 95% CI 1·22-1·29; burden 22·46, 95% CI 19·14-25·87 per 1000 people at 1 year), triglycerides greater than 150 mg/dL (1·27, 1·23-1·31; 22·03, 18·85-25·30), LDL cholesterol greater than 130 mg/dL (1·24, 1·20-1·29; 18·00, 14·98-21·11), and HDL cholesterol lower than 40 mg/dL (1·20, 1·16-1·25; 15·58, 12·52-18·73). The risk and burden of a composite of these abnormal lipid laboratory outcomes were 1·24 (95% CI 1·21-1·27) and 39·19 (95% CI 34·71-43·73), respectively. There was also increased risk and burden of incident lipid-lowering medications use (HR 1·54, 95% CI 1·48-1·61; burden 25·50, 95% CI 22·61-28·50). A composite of any dyslipidaemia outcome (laboratory abnormality or lipid-lowering medications use) yielded an HR of 1·31 (95% CI 1·28-1·34) and a burden of 54·03 (95% CI 49·21-58·92). The risks and burdens of these post-acute outcomes increased in a graded fashion corresponding to the severity of the acute phase of COVID-19 infection (ie, whether patients were non-hospitalised, hospitalised, or admitted to intensive care). The results were consistent in analyses comparing the COVID-19 group to the non-infected historical control group.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest increased risks and 1-year burdens of incident dyslipidaemia and incident lipid-lowering medications use in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 infection. Post-acute care for those with COVID-19 should involve attention to dyslipidaemia as a potential post-acute sequela of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

FUNDING

US Department of Veterans Affairs.

Diagnostic Cardiac CT for the Improvement of Cardiovascular Event Prediction

BACKGROUND

The aim of the long-term Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (observation period 20 years) was to establish the extent to which computed tomography (CT) improves the predictability of cardiovascular events relative to determination of risk factors alone.

METHODS

In the period 2000-2003, study staff examined 4355 probands (53% of them female) aged 45-75 years with no signs of cardiovascular disease. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) score was calculated on the basis of demographic data and cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiac CT was carried out over the same period and coronary artery calcification (CAC) was graded according to the Agatston score.

RESULTS

The median duration of follow-up was 18.2 years for men and 17.8 years for women. Myocardial infarction or stroke occurred in 458 (11%) of the 4154 participants with complete data. Overall, estimation of risk using a combination of ASCVD score and CAC grade was superior to the ASCVD score alone-even after 10 and 20 years. Classification into established risk categories improved by 12.2% (95% confidence interval: [5.3%; 18.1%]). In the highest ASCVD risk category, we observed occurrence of a cardiovascular event over 20 years for 14% [5.0%; 23.1%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 but for 34.2% [27.5%; 41.4%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400. In the lowest ASCVD risk category, an event occurred in 2.4% [1.4%; 3.7%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 and in 23.5% [2.3%; 35.8%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400.

CONCLUSION

Even after 20 years, individual risk prediction is improved by addition of CT-based determination of coronary artery calcification to the ASCVD score. Therefore, assessment of ASCVD risk factors should be complemented more widely by cardiac CT in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

The Future of Cognitive Screening in Neurodegenerative Diseases

Cognitive screening instruments (CSI) have variable sensitivity and specificity to the cognitive changes associated with dementia syndromes, and the most recent systematic review found insufficient evidence to support the benefit of cognitive screening tools in older adults residing within the community. Consequently, there is a critical need to improve CSI methods, which have not yet incorporated advances in psychometrics, neuroscience, and technology. The primary goal of this article is to provide a framework for transitioning from legacy CSIs to advanced dementia screening measurement. In line with ongoing efforts in neuropsychology and the call for next-generation digital assessment for early detection of AD, we propose a psychometrically advanced (including application of item response theory methods), automated selective assessment model that provides a framework to help propel an assessment revolution. Further, we present a three-phase model for modernizing CSIs and discuss critical diversity and inclusion issues, current challenges in differentiating normal from pathological aging, and ethical considerations.

Fatty liver index and cardiovascular outcomes in never-treated hypertensive patients: a prospective cohort

The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been increasing rapidly worldwide, affecting 25-30% of the population. Fatty liver index (FLI) is a validated marker of NAFLD and can be used as a screening tool for hepatic steatosis. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the relationship between FLI and the risk of major cardiovascular events in never treated hypertensive patients. We included 903 hypertensive patients without a history of cardiovascular disease (mean age 52.7 ± 11.4 years; men 55%; baseline clinic BP 149.8 ± 15.2/95.5 ± 10.1 mmHg). Participants were prospectively evaluated for a mean follow-up period of 5.2 ± 3.2 years with at least one annual visit. Patients were also categorized into two groups using an FLI of 60 units. The incidence of cardiovascular events during follow-up was 8.5% (n = 77). Patients with FLI < 60 (n = 625) had a better BP control compared to their counterparts with FLI ≥ 60 (n = 278) during follow up (43% vs 33%, p = 0.02). Cox-regression analysis indicated that FLI (Hazard Ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.03-1.07, p < 0.001), FLI z-scores (HR, 3.66; 95% CI, 2.22-6.04) and high-risk FLI (HR, 7.5; 95% CI, 3.12-18.04) were independent determinants of the outcome after adjustment for baseline and follow-up variables. Stratification by diabetes mellitus indicated that FLI predicted the outcome to a greater extent in those with than those without diabetes (P-interaction < 0.001). In conclusion, FLI has an independent prognostic value for the incidence of cardiovascular events in newly diagnosed, never-treated hypertensive patients. Therefore, FLI might identify higher-risk patients in the primary prevention of hypertension.

Estimated versus observed 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular event rates in a rural population-based health initiative: The Heart of New Ulm Project

Objective

Assess discrepancy between estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and observed 10-year event rates in a rural population participating in cardiovascular health initiative.

Methods

The study included a rural sample of individuals participating in the Heart of New Ulm (HONU), a population-based health initiative aimed at reducing ASCVD risk in a rural community. HONU conducted over 100 baseline screening events with 5221 individuals participating in 2009. For this analysis, we included participants who were aged 40-79 years, free of ASCVD at baseline, and had adequate data to calculate 10-year ASCVD risk. Electronic health record data and state death records were used to determine rates of non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke, and ASCVD death from 2010-2019. ASCVD event rates were compared to estimated 10-year risks calculated using the Pooled Cohort Equations, stratified by sex and clinically relevant risk categories.

Results

The sample (n = 2819, mean ± SD age 56.1 ± 9.9 years, 59.6% female) had a low prevalence of tobacco use (8.1% current smokers) and diabetes (6.5%) and a high prevalence of hypertension (44.4%) and hyperlipidemia (56.6%). The median estimated 10-year ASCVD risk for the entire sample was 5.7% (IQR 2.3-13.5%) with an observed 10-year ASCVD event rate of 3.4%. The largest gap between observed and estimated risk was in those at intermediate/high (≥7.5%) ASCVD risk (median 10-year risk 15.8% [IQR 10.4-29.0], observed ASCVD event rate 6.4%).

Conclusio

In a sample of rural participants exposed to a multifaceted ASCVD prevention initiative, observed rates of ASCVD were substantially lower compared to estimated ASCVD risk. The potential for significantly lower than predicted ASCVD event rates in certain populations should be included in the clinician-patient risk discussion.

Bempedoic acid and its role in contemporary management of hyperlipidemia in atherosclerosis

Atherosclerotic heart disease is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in the USA. Low density lipoprotein (LDL) has been the target for many hypolipidemic agents to modify atherosclerotic risk. Bempedoic acid is a novel hypolipidemic drug that inhibits the enzymatic activity of ATP citrate lyase in the cholesterol synthesis pathway. CLEAR Harmony, CLEAR Wisdom, CLEAR Tranquillity and CLEAR Serenity have shown safety and efficacy associated with long term administration of this drug. Studies have shown effectiveness in reducing LDL-C in both statin intolerant patients and in patients on maximally tolerated doses of statin. The fixed drug combination of bempedoic acid and ezetimibe in a recent phase III showed significant reduction in LDL compared with placebo, which might be a promising future for LDL reduction among statin intolerant patients. Bempedoic acid also reduced inflammatory markers like hs-CRP. Given these results, bempedoic acid alone and in combination with ezetimibe received the USA FDA approval for adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia or established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We present a comprehensive review exploring the underlying mechanism, pre-clinical studies, and clinical trials of bempedoic acid and discuss the potential future role of the drug in treating hyperlipidaemia.

Comparison of Framingham risk score and pooled cohort equations for the prediction of coronary atherosclerosis in patients who meet the target LDL-C level of Korean dyslipidemia guideline

This study aims to compare the predicting performance of coronary atherosclerosis between Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in moderate to high-risk patients who meet the target low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level of Korean dyslipidemia guidelines. Among 1207 patients aged 40 to 65 who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at outpatient for chest discomfort, we included 414 moderate-risk patients (non-diabetes) and 86 high-risk patients (diabetes). They were divided into 3 groups according to FRS and PCE, then compared with coronary artery calcification score (CACS) and plaque burden degree strata. We presented receiver operating characteristic curves for the presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) and any plaque. In moderate-risk patients, the distribution of CACS and plaque burden degree according to FRS and PCE risk strata showed significant differences between groups and a consistent trend (P < .001). Both FRS and PCE showed good discrimination for the presence of CAC [area under the curve (AUC); 0.711 vs 0.75, P = .02] and any plaque (AUC; 0.72 vs 0.756, P = .025). However, in high-risk patients, there was no significant differences or consistent trend between groups and the AUC values of FRS and PCE were (0.537 vs 0.571, P = .809) for CAC and (0.478 vs 0.65 P = .273) for any plaque showing poor discrimination. In predicting coronary atherosclerosis in moderate to high-risk patients who meet the target LDL-C level of Korean dyslipidemia guidelines, both FRS and PCE can be used in moderate-risk patients but not in high-risk patients.

Early-start antiplatelet therapy after operation in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage and high risk of ischemic events (E-start): Protocol for a multi-centered, prospective, open-label, blinded endpoint randomized controlled trial

Background

For severe spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sSICH) patients with high risk of ischemic events, the incidence of postoperative major cardiovascular/cerebrovascular and peripheral vascular events (MACCPE) is notable. Although antiplatelet therapy is a potential way to benefit these patients, the severe hemorrhagic complications, e.g., intracranial re-hemorrhage, is a barrier for early starting antiplatelet therapy.

Objectives

This randomized controlled trial aims to identify the benefit and safety of early starting antiplatelet therapy after operation for sSICH patients with high risk of ischemic events.

Methods

This study is a multicenter, prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded-endpoint trial. We will enroll 250 sSICH patients with a high risk of ischemic events (including cerebral infarcts, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, and deep venous thrombosis). The participants will be randomized in a 1:1 manner to early-start group (start antiplatelet therapy at 3 days after operation) and normal-start group (start antiplatelet therapy at 30 days after operation). The early-start group will receive aspirin 100 mg daily. The control group will not receive antithrombotic therapy until 30 days after operation. The efficacy endpoint is the incidence of MACCPE, and the safety endpoint is the incidence of intracranial re-hemorrhage.

Discussion

The Early-Start antiplatelet therapy after operation in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage trial (E-start) is the first randomized trial about early start antiplatelet therapy for operated sSICH patients with a high risk of ischemic events. This study will provide a new strategy and evidence for postoperative management in the future.

Clinical trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT04820972; Available at: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04820972?term=NCT04820972&draw=2&rank=1.Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, identifier ChiCTR2100044560; Available at: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=123277.

Polygenic risk score and age: an extra help in the cardiovascular prevention of the young?

All major guidelines recommend assessing the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) using risk scores. In fact, it has been shown that their use at the population level increases the accuracy of event prediction and facilitates the choice of strategies to be adopted in primary prevention. In fact, their use in clinical practice is far from optimal and their predictive ability on an individual level is not excellent. Our genetic heritage is substantially stable from birth and determines a ‘baseline risk’ on which external influences act. Genetic information therefore has the potential to be an early predictor of risk. Common diseases such as diabetes mellitus, ASCVD and neurodegenerative diseases are conditioned by different genetic variants with small individual effects, so that a reliable risk prediction requires careful examination of the aggregate impact of these multiple variants. The polygenic risk score (PRS) is a tool that potentially enables this complex assessment and provides a new opportunity to explore our risk of developing common diseases, including coronary artery disease (CAD). In the future, it is possible that a specific PRS could be used as an independent CAD screening tool, but this requires a detailed assessment of the practical implications, including the population to be investigated, and the consequent interventions that would then be offered.

Assessment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Primary Prevention

PURPOSE

The objective of this report was to review the application of the pooled cohort equations in primary prevention and the assessment of cardiovascular health.

REVIEW METHODS

Literature review was conducted using the PubMed database. In addition, the 2018 Multi-Society Guidelines on Management of Blood Cholesterol and the 2019 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Guidelines on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease were reviewed.

SUMMARY

Primary prevention refers to individuals with no history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, severe hypercholesterolemia, or diabetes. For these adults, aged 40-75 yr, who have a low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of ≥70 mg/dL and <190 mg/dL, the pooled cohort equations should be used to provide a quantitative assessment of 10-yr atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. From here, individuals are grouped as low risk (<5%), borderline risk (5 to <7.5%), intermediate risk (7.5 to <20%), or high risk (≥20%). Statin therapy should be strongly advised in those with an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk of ≥20%, while statin therapy can be considered in those with a risk between 5% and <20%, especially if risk enhancing factors are present. If uncertainty still exists regarding treatment, a coronary artery calcium score can help further refine risk. All individuals, regardless of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, should have a cardiovascular health assessment using Life's Essential 8, which includes diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, body mass index, blood glucose, blood lipids, blood pressure, and sleep.

Comparing eligibility for statin therapy for primary prevention under 2022 USPSTF recommendations and the 2018 AHA/ACC/ multi-society guideline recommendations: From National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

INTRODUCTION

The United States Preventive Services Taskforce (USPSTF) recently released recommendations for statin therapy eligibility for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We report the proportion and the absolute number of US adults who would be eligible for statin therapy under these recommendations and compare them with the previously published 2018 American Heart Association (AHA)/ American College of Cardiology (ACC)/ Multisociety (MS) Cholesterol guidelines.

METHODS

We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017-2020 of adults aged 40-75 years without prevalent self-reported atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol <190 mg/dL. The 2022 USPSTF recommends statin therapy for primary prevention in those with a 10-year ASCVD risk of ≥10% and ≥ 1 CVD risk factor (diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, hypertension, or smoking). The 2018 AHA/ ACC/ MS Cholesterol guideline recommends considering statin therapy for primary prevention for those with diabetes mellitus, or 10-year ASCVD risk ≥20% or 10-year ASCVD risk 7.5 to <20% after accounting for risk-enhancers and shared decision making. Survey recommended weights were used to project these proportions to national estimates.

RESULTS

Among 1799 participants eligible for this study, the weighted mean age was 56.0 ± 0.5 years, with 53.0% women (95% confidence interval [CI] 49.7, 56.3), and 10.6% self-reported NH Black individuals (95% CI 7.7, 14.3). The weighted mean 10-year ASCVD risk was 9.6 ± 0.3%. The 2022 USPSTF recommendations and the 2018 AHA/ ACC/ MS Cholesterol guidelines indicated eligibility for statin therapy in 31.8% (95% CI 28.6, 35.1) and 46.8% (95% CI 43.0, 50.5) adults, respectively. These represent 33.7 million (95% CI 30.4, 37.2) and 49.7 million (95% CI 45.7, 53.7) adults, respectively. For those with diabetes mellitus, 2022 USPSTF recommended statin therapy in 63.0% (95% CI 52.1, 72.7) adults as compared with all adults with diabetes aged 40-75 years under the 2018 AHA/ ACC/ MS Cholesterol guidelines.

CONCLUSION

In this analysis of the nationally representative US population from 2017 to 2020, approximately 15% (~16.0 million) fewer adults were eligible for statin therapy for primary prevention under the 2022 USPSTF recommendations as compared to the 2018 AHA/ ACC/ MS Cholesterol guideline.

Guidelines for the management of hyperlipidemia: How can clinicians effectively implement them?

Guidelines support lowering cholesterol to decrease atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk across the entire lifespan with intensive lifestyle intervention, as well as statin and non-statin pharmacotherapy for those at highest risk. Modest improvements in the initiation, use, and adherence to statin therapy in patients with ASCVD have occurred over the past decades. However, studies continue to document a less than desired implementation of guidelines highlighting a substantial and persistent treatment gap. The success of implementation depends on the consideration of a variety of barriers that exist throughout the healthcare delivery system. Further research is needed to comprehensively evaluate these barriers in order to develop appropriate and sustainable interventions to improve guideline implementation.

Population-Based Recalibration of the Framingham Risk Score and Pooled Cohort Equations

BACKGROUND

The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) overestimate risk in many contemporary cohorts.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine if recalibration of these scores using contemporary population-level data improves risk stratification for statin therapy.

METHODS

Five-year FRS and PCEs were recalibrated using a cohort of Ontario residents alive January 1, 2011, who were 30 to 79 years of age without cardiovascular disease. Scores were externally validated in a primary care cohort of routinely collected electronic medical record data from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2014. The relative difference in mean predicted and observed risk, number of statins avoided, and number needed to treat with statins to reduce a cardiovascular event at 5 years were reported.

RESULTS

The FRS was recalibrated in 6,938,971 Ontario residents (51.6% women, mean age 48 years) and validated in 71,450 individuals (56.1% women, mean age 52 years). Recalibration reduced overestimation from 109% to 49% for women and 131% to 32% for men. The recalibrated FRS was estimated to reduce statin prescriptions in up to 26 per 1,000 low-risk women and 80 per 1,000 low-risk men, as well as reduce the number needed to treat from 61 to 47 in women and from 53 to 41 in men. In contrast, after recalibration of the PCEs, risk remained overestimated by 217% in women and 128% in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Recalibration is a feasible solution to improve risk prediction but is dependent on the model being used. Recalibration of the FRS but not the PCEs reduced overestimation and may improve utilization of statins.