Validation of the Asthma Predictive Index and comparison with simpler clinical prediction rules

Development and validation of a prediction model to predict school-age asthma in preschool children

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a clinical prediction model to identify school-age asthma in preschool asthmatic children.

STUDY DESIGN

In this retrospective prognosis cohort study, asthmatic children aged 3-5 years were enrolled with at least 2 years of follow-up, and their potential variables at baseline and the prognosis of school-age asthma were collected from medical records. A clinical prediction model was developed using Logistic regression. The performance of prediction model was assessed and quantified by discrimination of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration of Brier score. The model was validated by the temporal-validation method.

RESULTS

In the development dataset, 2748 preschool asthmatic children were included for model development, and 883 (32.13%) children were translated to school-age asthma. The independent prognostic variables with an increased risk for school-age asthma were used to develop the prediction model, including: age, parental asthma, early frequent wheezing, allergic rhinitis, eczema, allergic conjunctivitis, obesity, and aeroallergen of dust mite. While assessing model performance, the discrimination power of AUC was moderate [0.788 (0.770-0.805)] with sensitivity (81.5%) and specificity (60.9%), and the calibration of Brier score was 0.169, supporting the calibration ability. In the temporal-validation dataset of 583 preschool asthmatic children, our model showed satisfactory discrimination (AUC 0.818) and calibration (Brier score 0.150). The prediction model was presented by the web-based calculator (https://casthma.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/) and a nomogram for clinical application.

CONCLUSION

In preschool asthmatic children, our prediction model could be used to predict the risk of school-age asthma.

Childhood asthma- pathogenesis and phenotypes

In the pathogenesis of asthma in children there is a pivotal role for a type 2 inflammatory response to early life exposures or events. Interactions between infections, atopy, genetic susceptibility, and environmental exposures (such as farmyard environment, air pollution, tobacco smoke exposure) influence the development of wheezing illness and the risk for progression to asthma. The immune system, lung function and the microbiome in gut and airways develop in parallel and dysbiosis of the microbiome may be a critical factor in asthma development. Increased infant weight gain and preterm birth are other risk factors for development of asthma and reduced lung function. The complex interplay between these factors explains the heterogeneity of asthma in children. Subgroups of patients can be identified as phenotypes based on clinical parameters, or endotypes, based on a specific pathophysiological mechanism. Paediatric asthma phenotypes and endotypes may ultimately help to improve diagnosis of asthma, prediction of asthma development and treatment of individual children, based on clinical, temporal, developmental or inflammatory characteristics. Unbiased, data-driven clustering, using a multidimensional or systems biology approach may be needed to better define phenotypes. The present knowledge on inflammatory phenotypes of childhood asthma has now been successfully applied in the treatment with biologicals of children with severe therapy resistant asthma, and it is to be expected that more personalized treatment options may become available.

Performance of Three Asthma Predictive Tools in a Cohort of Infants Hospitalized With Severe Bronchiolitis

Childhood asthma develops in 30–40% of children with severe bronchiolitis but accurate prediction remains challenging. In a severe bronchiolitis cohort, we applied the Asthma Predictive Index (API), the modified Asthma Predictive Index (mAPI), and the Pediatric Asthma Risk Score (PARS) to predict asthma at age 5 years. We applied the API, mAPI, and PARS to the 17-center cohort of infants hospitalized with severe bronchiolitis during 2011–2014 (35th Multicenter Airway Research Collaboration, MARC-35). We used data from the first 3 years of life including parent interviews, chart review, and specific IgE testing to predict asthma at age 5 years, defined as parent report of clinician-diagnosed asthma. Among 875/921 (95%) children with outcome data, parent-reported asthma was 294/875 (34%). In MARC-35, a positive index/score for stringent and loose API, mAPI, and PARS were 24, 68, 6, and 55%, respectively. The prediction tools' AUCs (95%CI) ranged from 0.57 (95%CI 0.54–0.59) to 0.68 (95%CI 0.65–0.71). The positive likelihood ratios were lower in MARC-35 compared to the published results from the original cohorts. In this high-risk population of infants hospitalized with severe bronchiolitis, API, mAPI, and PARS had sub-optimal performance (AUC <0.8). Highly accurate (AUC >0.8) asthma prediction tools are desired in infants hospitalized with severe bronchiolitis.

Retrospective Cross-sectional Analysis of Factors Associated with Asthma in a Pediatric Cohort from Turkey

BACKGROUND

It is difficult to identify young children at increased risk of developing asthma amongst those with recurrent wheezing. In this study, we aimed to determine factors associated with asthma in Turkish children.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cross-sectional analysis on factors associated with asthma in 651 children (200 girls, 451 boys) admitted for recurrent wheezing.

RESULTS

Amongst all included children, asthma frequency was 57.7%. Maturity, consanguinity, family income, passive smoking, father's, siblings' asthma were not found to be associated with asthma. Factors associated with asthma were: family's, parents', siblings' atopy, family's, mother's asthma, allergic rhinitis and atopic dermatitis, respiratory symptoms between wheezing attacks. The sensitivity (SN) of the modified asthma predictive index (mAPI) was 59.2% with a specificity (SP) of 91.3%, positive predictive index (PPI) of 65.1% and negative predictive index (NPI) of 82.3%. The SN of the modified Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) score was 22.9% with a SP of 89.2%, PPI of 84.6%, and NPI of 42.2%. Adjusted odds ratio for mAPI was 12.9, and for the modified PIAMA score 4.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis confirmed previously described factors associated with asthma. Although the SN is limited, the mAPI and PIAMA risk scores can be used to predict asthma in Turkish children. Differential diagnoses and overlaps with other chronic pediatric diseases such as immunodeficiencies need to be carefully excluded when confirming the diagnosis asthma.

Which Wheezing Preschoolers Should be Treated for Asthma?

Wheezing disorders in children younger than 5 years are common, but lack of clarity remains about which children should be treated to prevent symptoms and acute episodes. The aim of this review was to discuss a practical approach to deciding which children younger than 5 years with asthma should be treated, and if so, with which strategy. The importance of having a clear definition of "asthma" for this age group, determined by a collection of presenting respiratory symptoms, without assumptions about underlying mechanisms is addressed. Subsequent consideration should be given to timing, severity, and frequency of symptoms, together with assessment of objective biomarkers, including aeroallergen sensitization and blood eosinophils, to inform whether or not a preschooler with recurrent wheezing requires treatment. Numerous unanswered questions remain about the optimal management of nonallergic preschool wheezing and asthma, and areas of specific unmet need and future directions for research are highlighted.

Prediction models for childhood asthma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The inability to objectively diagnose childhood asthma before age five often results in both under-treatment and over-treatment of asthma in preschool children. Prediction tools for estimating a child's risk of developing asthma by school-age could assist physicians in early asthma care for preschool children. This review aimed to systematically identify and critically appraise studies which either developed novel or updated existing prediction models for predicting school-age asthma.

METHODS

Three databases (MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science Core Collection) were searched up to July 2019 to identify studies utilizing information from children ≤5 years of age to predict asthma in school-age children (6-13 years). Validation studies were evaluated as a secondary objective.

RESULTS

Twenty-four studies describing the development of 26 predictive models published between 2000 and 2019 were identified. Models were either regression-based (n = 21) or utilized machine learning approaches (n = 5). Nine studies conducted validations of six regression-based models. Fifteen (out of 21) models required additional clinical tests. Overall model performance, assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), ranged between 0.66 and 0.87. Models demonstrated moderate ability to either rule in or rule out asthma development, but not both. Where external validation was performed, models demonstrated modest generalizability (AUC range: 0.62-0.83).

CONCLUSION

Existing prediction models demonstrated moderate predictive performance, often with modest generalizability when independently validated. Limitations of traditional methods have shown to impair predictive accuracy and resolution. Exploration of novel methods such as machine learning approaches may address these limitations for future school-age asthma prediction.

Management and treatment of bronchial asthma in adults and children on the basis of new guidelines

Bronchial asthma is the most common chronic disease in children and adults under 40 years of age. Characteristic symptoms include wheezing, shortness of breath, tightness of the chest and a cough varying in time and intensity. The disease usually begins in childhood and lasts a lifetime, with periods of exacerbation and remission. Asthma can occur at any age, but in approximately 80% of cases the first asthma attack occurs before the age of 5. Over the past several years, progress in the diagnosis and monitoring of patients with asthma has been made. In addition to the long-established objective assessment methods, such as functional tests, rapid asthma control questionnaires recommended for use in daily practice and noninvasive methods for assessing inflammation have been introduced. The availability of these methods and their degree of use in routine practice are variable. Taking careful history with the child and parents is very important. A detailed history is the first and primary step of asthma recognition. While in the case of adults, the observation period and available methods usually allow us to make reliable diagnosis of the disease, in younger children the diagnosis is associated with difficulties resulting from the inability to use some diagnostic tools. The paper discusses the currently available diagnostic methods and those used for monitoring the disease, especially the most current ones used in the youngest children. Medications used in asthma treatment have been characterized, including new therapeutic options, especially biological treatment. Particular attention was paid to the education of the patient and caregivers, which, apart from well-established treatment, determines good asthma control.

Preschool Wheezing: Trajectories and Long-Term Treatment

Wheezing is very common in infancy affecting one in three children during the first 3 years of life. Several wheeze phenotypes have been identified and most rely on temporal pattern of symptoms. Assessing the risk of asthma development is difficult. Factors predisposing to onset and persistence of wheezing such as breastfeeding, atopy, indoor allergen exposure, environmental tobacco smoke and viral infections are analyzed. Inhaled corticosteroids are recommended as first choice of controller treatment in all preschool children irrespective of phenotype, but they are particularly beneficial in terms of fewer exacerbations in atopic children. Other therapeutic options include the addition of montelukast or the intermittent use of inhaled corticosteroids. Overuse of inhaled steroids must be avoided. Therefore, adherence to treatment and correct administration of the medications need to be checked at every visit.

Asthma predictive index as a useful diagnostic tool in preschool children: a cross-sectional study in Korea

BACKGROUND

It is challenging to diagnose asthma in preschool children. The asthma predictive index (API) has been used to predict asthma and decide whether to initiate treatment in preschool children.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the association between questionnaire-based current asthma with API, pulmonary function, airway hyperreactivity (AHR), fractional expiratory nitric oxide (FeNO), and atopic sensitization in preschool children.

METHODS

We performed a population-based cross-sectional study in 916 preschool children aged 4-6 years. We defined current asthma as the presence of both physician-diagnosed asthma and at least one wheezing episode within the previous 12 months using a modified International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire. Clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between groups according to the presence of current asthma.

RESULTS

The prevalence of current asthma was 3.9% in the study population. Children with current asthma showed a higher rate of positive bronchodilator response and loose and stringent API scores than children without current asthma. The stringent API was associated with current asthma with 72.2% sensitivity and 82.0% specificity. The diagnostic accuracy of the stringent API for current asthma was 0.771. However, no intergroup differences in spirometry results, methacholine provocation test results, FeNO level, or atopic sensitization rate were observed.

CONCLUSION

The questionnaire-based diagnosis of current asthma is associated with API, but not with spirometry, AHR, FeNO, or atopic sensitization in preschool children.

Exhaled Nitric Oxide in Wheezy Infants Predicts Persistent Atopic Asthma and Exacerbations at School Age

BACKGROUND

There are limited data assessing the predictive value of fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FENO) in infants/toddlers with recurrent wheezing for asthma at school age.

OBJECTIVES

In a cohort of infants/toddlers with recurrent wheezing determine the predictive values of sedated single-breath FENO (SB-FENO) and awake tidal-breathing mixed-expired FENO (tidal-FENO) for active asthma, severe exacerbations, and lung function at age 6 years.

METHODS

In 44 infants/toddlers, SB-FENO was measured under sedation at 50 mL/sec in conjunction with forced expiratory flow and volume measurements, and tidal-FENO was measured during awake tidal breathing. Clinical outcomes and lung function were assessed at age 6 years in 36 subjects.

RESULTS

Enrollment SB-FENO was significantly higher among subjects with active asthma at age 6 years than among subjects without asthma (36.4 vs. 16.9 ppb, p < 0.0001), and the odds of asthma was 7.6 times greater (OR 7.6; 95% CI 1.8-31.6) for every 10 ppb increase in enrollment SB-FENO. A ROC analysis demonstrated that an enrollment SB-FENO > 31.5 ppb predicted active asthma at age 6 years with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.82-1). SB-FENO was also higher among subjects who experienced severe asthma exacerbations during the year preceding age of 6 years. SB-FENO at enrollment and lung function measures at age 6 years were modestly correlated (FEV1: r = -0.4; FEF25-75: r = -0.41; FEV1/FVC ratio: r=-0.46), and SB-FENO was significantly higher among subjects with bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR) at age 6 years. Tidal-FENO was not predictive of active asthma, exacerbations, or lung function at age 6 years.

CONCLUSION

In wheezy infants/toddlers, SB-FENO was predictive of school-age asthma and associated with lung function measures at age 6 years.

Validation of childhood asthma predictive tools: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty about the clinical usefulness of currently available asthma predictive tools. Validation of predictive tools in different populations and clinical settings is an essential requirement for the assessment of their predictive performance, reproducibility and generalizability. We aimed to critically appraise asthma predictive tools which have been validated in external studies.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1946-2017) for all available childhood asthma prediction models and focused on externally validated predictive tools alongside the studies in which they were originally developed. We excluded non-English and non-original studies. PROSPERO registration number is CRD42016035727.

RESULTS

From 946 screened papers, eight were included in the review. Statistical approaches for creation of prediction tools included chi-square tests, logistic regression models and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Predictive models were developed and validated in general and high-risk populations. Only three prediction tools were externally validated: the Asthma Predictive Index, the PIAMA and the Leicester asthma prediction tool. A variety of predictors has been tested, but no studies examined the same combination. There was heterogeneity in definition of the primary outcome among development and validation studies, and no objective measurements were used for asthma diagnosis. The performance of tools varied at different ages of outcome assessment. We observed a discrepancy between the development and validation studies in the tools' predictive performance in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive values.

CONCLUSIONS

Validated asthma predictive tools, reviewed in this paper, provided poor predictive accuracy with performance variation in sensitivity and positive predictive value.

The Simple 10-Item Predicting Asthma Risk in Children Tool to Predict Childhood Asthma-An External Validation

BACKGROUND

External validation of prediction models is important to assess generalizability to other populations than the one used for model development. The Predicting Asthma Risk in Children (PARC) tool, developed in the Leicestershire Respiratory Cohort (LRC), uses information on preschool respiratory symptoms to predict asthma at school age.

OBJECTIVE

We performed an external validation of PARC using the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).

METHODS

We defined inclusion criteria, prediction score items at baseline and asthma at follow-up in ALSPAC to match those used in LRC using information from parent-reported questionnaires. We assessed performance of PARC by calculating sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, area under the curve (AUC), Brier score and Nagelkerke's R2. Sensitivity analyses varied inclusion criteria, scoring items, and outcomes.

RESULTS

The validation population included 2690 children with preschool respiratory symptoms of whom 373 (14%) had asthma at school age. Discriminative performance of PARC was similar in ALSPAC (AUC = 0.77, Brier score 0.13) as in LRC (0.78, 0.22). The score cutoff of 4 showed the highest sum of sensitivity (69%) and specificity (76%) and positive and negative likelihood ratios of 2.87 and 0.41, respectively. Changes to inclusion criteria, scoring items, or outcome definitions barely altered the prediction performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Performing equally well in the validation cohort as in the development cohort, PARC is a valid tool for predicting asthma in population-based cohorts. Its use in clinical practice is ready to be tested.

Individual risk assessment tool for school-age asthma prediction in UK birth cohort

Background

Current published asthma predictive tools have moderate positive likelihood ratios (+LR) but high negative likelihood ratios (−LR) based on their recommended cut‐offs, which limit their clinical usefulness.

Objective

To develop a simple clinically applicable asthma prediction tool within a population‐based birth cohort.

Method

Children from the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS) attended follow‐up at ages 3, 8 and 11 years. Data on preschool wheeze were extracted from primary‐care records. Parents completed validated respiratory questionnaires. Children were skin prick tested (SPT). Asthma at 8/11 years (school‐age) was defined as parentally reported (a) physician‐diagnosed asthma and wheeze in the previous 12 months or (b) ≥3 wheeze attacks in the previous 12 months. An asthma prediction tool (MAAS APT) was developed using logistic regression of characteristics at age 3 years to predict school‐age asthma.

Results

Of 336 children with physician‐confirmed wheeze by age 3 years, 117(35%) had school‐age asthma. Logistic regression selected 5 significant risk factors which formed the basis of the MAAS APT: wheeze after exercise; wheeze causing breathlessness; cough on exertion; current eczema and SPT sensitisation(maximum score 5). A total of 281(84%) children had complete data at age 3 years and were used to test the MAAS APT. Children scoring ≥3 were at high risk of having asthma at school‐age (PPV > 75%; +LR 6.3, −LR 0.6), whereas children who had a score of 0 had very low risk(PPV 9.3%; LR 0.2).

Conclusion

MAAS APT is a simple asthma prediction tool which could easily be applied in clinical and research settings.

Predicting Asthma Using Clinical Indexes

Asthma is no longer considered a single disease, but a common label for a set of heterogeneous conditions with shared clinical symptoms but associated with different cellular and molecular mechanisms. Several wheezing phenotypes coexist at preschool age but not all preschoolers with recurrent wheezing develop asthma at school-age; and since at the present no accurate single screening test using genetic or biochemical markers has been developed to determine which preschooler with recurrent wheezing will have asthma at school age, the asthma diagnosis still needs to be based on clinical predicted models or scores. The purpose of this review is to summarize the existing and most frequently used asthma predicting models, to discuss their advantages/disadvantages, and their accomplishment on all the necessary consecutive steps for any predictive model. Seven most popular asthma predictive models were reviewed (original API, Isle of Wight, PIAMA, modified API, ucAPI, APT Leicestersher, and ademAPI). Among these, the original API has a good positive LR~7.4 (increases the probability of a prediction of asthma by 2-7 times), and it is also simple: it only requires four clinical parameters and a peripheral blood sample for eosinophil count. It is thus an easy model to use in any rural or urban health care system. However, because its negative LR is not good, it cannot be used to rule out the development of asthma.

Relation between serum CC16 levels and asthma predictive index in pre-schoolers with recurrent wheezing

BACKGROUND

Low levels of serum CC16 were reported in asthmatic adults, but the studies on children were scarce and conflicting. The aim of this study was to compare serum CC16 levels in pre-school children with recurrent wheezing assessed using an asthma predictive index (API).

METHODS

We performed a case-control study based on API, with all enrolled pre-school children who had recurrent wheezing episodes (>3 episodes/last year confirmed by a physician) and had presented at one paediatric clinic in Santiago, Chile. The population was divided according to stringent API criteria into positive or negative.

RESULTS

In a one-year period, 60 pre-schoolers were enrolled. After excluding 12, 48 pre-schoolers remained (27 males, age range from 24 to 71 months) and completed the study; 34 were API positive and 14 were API negative. There were no significant differences in demographics between groups. The level of serum CC16 levels for pre-schoolers with a positive API and negative API were (median 9.2 [7.1-11.5] and 9.4 [5.5-10], p=0.26, respectively). The area under the curve for the serum CC16 levels to predict a positive API was 0.6, 95% CI [0.43-0.77], p=0.3. A correlation between serum CC16 levels and age was found (r=0.36 [0.07-0.59], p=0.01], but not between serum CC16 levels and peripheral eosinophils blood.

CONCLUSION

There was no evidence that serum CC16 levels played a role in recurrent wheezing and a positive API in pre-school children. More studies are needed to confirm this finding.

Serum periostin is not related to asthma predictive index

BACKGROUND

In contrast to adult asthmatic patients, studies on the role of serum periostin levels in schoolchildren with asthma are still conflictive, and very few studies have been performed in pre-schoolers. The aim of this study was to compare serum periostin levels in recurrent wheezer pre-schoolers according to their asthma predictive index (API) condition.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study enrolling pre-schoolers with recurrent wheezing episodes (>3 episodes confirmed by physician) presented at one paediatric clinic in Santiago, Chile. The population was divided according to stringent API criteria into positive or negative.

RESULTS

In a one-year period, 60 pre-schoolers were enrolled. After excluding 12 (due to not fulfilment of inclusion criteria or refusal of blood sample extraction), 48 remaining pre-schoolers (27 males, age range from 24 to 71 months) completed the study; 34 were API positive and 14 were API negative. There were no significant differences in demographics between groups. The level of serum periostin levels for pre-schoolers with positive API and negative API were (median 46.7 [25.5-83.1] and 67.5 [20.5-131.8], p=0.9, respectively). The area under the curve for the serum periostin levels for predict positive API was 0.5, 95% CI [0.29-0.70], p=0.9. No significant correlation between serum periostin levels and peripheral blood eosinophils was found.

CONCLUSION

Serum periostin levels were no significantly different between wheezer pre-schoolers with positive and negative API. More studies are needed to confirm this finding.

Temporal stability of multitrigger and episodic viral wheeze in early childhood

The distinction between episodic viral wheeze (EVW) and multitrigger wheeze (MTW) is used to guide management of preschool wheeze. It has been questioned whether these phenotypes are stable over time. We examined the temporal stability of MTW and EVW in two large population-based cohorts.We classified children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n=10 970) and the Leicester Respiratory Cohorts ((LRCs), n=3263) into EVW, MTW and no wheeze at ages 2, 4 and 6 years based on parent-reported symptoms. Using multinomial regression, we estimated relative risk ratios for EVW and MTW at follow-up (no wheeze as reference category) with and without adjusting for wheeze severity.Although large proportions of children with EVW and MTW became asymptomatic, those that continued to wheeze showed a tendency to remain in the same phenotype: among children with MTW at 4 years in the LRCs, the adjusted relative risk ratio was 15.6 (95% CI 8.3-29.2) for MTW (stable phenotype) compared to 7.0 (95% CI 2.6-18.9) for EVW (phenotype switching) at 6 years. The tendency to persist was weaker for EVW and from 2-4 years. Results were similar across cohorts.This suggests that MTW, and to a lesser extent EVW, tend to persist regardless of wheeze severity.

Recurrent wheeze and its relationship with lung function and airway inflammation in preschool children: a cross-sectional study in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Relationship between recurrent wheeze and airway function and inflammation in preschool children is not fully known.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between recurrent wheeze and airway inflammation, lung function, airway hyper-reactivity (AHR) and atopy in preschool children.

DESIGN

Observational study, comparing forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), forced vital capacity (FVC) and mid-forced expiratory flow (FEF_25%-75%), dose-response slope (DRS), exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) and atopic sensitisation between children with recurrent wheeze and those without.

SETTING

Population-based, cross-sectional study in Seoul and the Gyeonggi province of Korea conducted as a government-funded programme to perform standardised measurement of the prevalence of allergic diseases, and related factors, in preschool children.

PARTICIPANTS

900 children aged 4-6 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: eNO, FEV₁/FVC, FEF_25%-75%, DRS, atopic sensitisation and allergic diseases.

METHODS

Children completed the modified International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire and underwent eNO assessments, spirometry, methacholine bronchial provocation tests and skin prick tests. Recurrent wheeze was defined as having a lifetime wheeze of more than three episodes, based on the questionnaire. The frequency of hospitalisation and emergency room visits was also obtained by means of the questionnaire. 'Current' wheeze was defined as having symptoms or treatments within the past 12 months.

RESULTS

The prevalence of recurrent wheeze was 13.4%. Children with recurrent wheeze showed a higher prevalence of lifetime or current allergic rhinitis (p=0.01 and p=0.002, respectively) and lifetime atopic dermatitis (p=0.007). Children with recurrent wheeze showed lower FEV₁/FVC (p=0.033) and FEF_25%-75% (p=0.004), and higher eNO levels (p=0.013) than those without recurrent wheeze. However, the DRS, prevalence of atopic sensitisation and serum IgE levels were not significantly different between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrent wheeze in preschool children may be associated with airway inflammation and diminished airway function, but not with AHR or atopy.

Age-related changes in childhood wheezing characteristics: A whole population study

BACKGROUND

Wheezing illnesses are characterized by phenotypic variability, which changes with age, but few studies report on a wide age range of children. We studied how prevalence, severity, and triggers of wheeze vary throughout childhood.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a large population-based cohort of children from Leicestershire, UK, who were followed from infancy through late adolescence using postal questionnaires. We used generalized estimating equations to describe age-related changes in prevalence of any wheeze: episodic viral and multiple trigger wheeze; wheeze triggered by exercise, aeroallergens, food/drinks, laughing/crying; and of severe wheeze (frequent attacks, shortness of breath, sleep disturbance, disturbance of daily activities) from age 1-18 years. We analyzed this in the entire cohort (absolute prevalence) and separately among children with wheeze (relative prevalence).

RESULTS

This study included 7670 children. Current wheeze was most common in 1-year-olds (36%) and then decreased in prevalence to reach 17% in children aged 14-17 years. Absolute prevalence of episodic viral wheeze (EVW) decreased with age (from 24% to 7%), while multiple trigger wheeze (MTW) remained relatively constant throughout childhood (8-12%). Among children with wheeze, the proportion with EVW decreased, and the proportion with MTW increased with age. In older children, wheeze triggered by exercise or aeroallergens, and wheeze accompanied by shortness of breath became more frequent, while wheeze triggered by food or laughter, and sleep disturbance decreased in prevalence.

CONCLUSION

Knowledge of these age-related changes in wheezing illness is informative for health care planning and the design of future research projects and questionnaires.

Current and future management of the young child with early onset wheezing

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this review, we discuss current thinking in relation to available guidelines for the care of preschool-aged children with recurrent wheezing, while highlighting the gaps in our knowledge and discussing changes that could occur over the next 5 years.

RECENT FINDINGS

The Asthma Predictive Index as well as allergen-specific IgE, peripheral eosinophil count and exhaled nitric oxide are perhaps underutilized sources of information that can assist in predicting progression to asthma and response to therapies. Inhaled corticosteroids and leukotriene receptor antagonists decrease impairment and exacerbation frequency in wheezing children but are not disease modifying. Macrolides may be useful during acute wheezing episodes for preventing progression to more severe symptoms. Monoclonal antibodies targeting IgE and TH2 cytokines have been successful in trials of adults and older children with asthma, but trials in younger children are needed.

SUMMARY

Establishing the phenotype and endotype of young wheezing children can be useful for prognostication of future asthma risk as well as for selection of the most appropriate treatment. Primary asthma prevention strategies are needed during the critical developmental window in early life prior to the onset of irrecoverable loss of lung function.

Factors predicting persistence of early wheezing through childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of the literature

Background

For the early identification of persistent asthma symptoms among young children with recurrent wheezing, it would be helpful to identify all available studies that have identified at least one factor for predicting the persistence of early wheezing. The objective of the present study was to perform a systematic review of all studies that have identified factors that predict the persistence of symptoms among young patients with recurring wheezing.

Methods

A systematic review of relevant studies was conducted through searching in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL, and SCOPUS databases up to June 2016. Studies that identified predictors of persistence of wheezing illness among young children with recurrent wheezing were retrieved. Two independent reviewers screened the literature and extracted relevant data.

Results

The literature search returned 649 references, 619 of which were excluded due to their irrelevance. Five additional studies were identified from reference lists, and 35 studies were finally included in the review. Among all the identified predictors, the most frequently identified ones were the following: family asthma or atopy; personal history of atopic diseases; allergic sensitization early in life; and frequency, clinical pattern, or severity of wheezing/symptoms.

Conclusion

Parental asthma (especially maternal), parental allergy, eczema, allergic rhinitis, persistent wheezing, wheeze without colds, exercise-induced wheeze, severe wheezing episodes, allergic sensitization (especially polysensitization), eosinophils (blood or eosinophil cationic protein in nasal sample), and fraction of exhaled nitric oxide were risk factors predicting persistence of early wheezing through school age. All of them are included in conventional algorithms, for example, Asthma Predictive Index and its modifications, for predicting future asthma.

Early treatment in preschool children: an evidence-based approach

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Wheezing is a common symptom in early childhood but only some of these children will experience continued wheezing symptoms in later childhood making the diagnosis and treatment of these children challenging. This review covers recent findings regarding the epidemiology, diagnosis, evaluation, and treatment of preschool-aged children with asthma.

RECENT FINDINGS

Key characteristics that distinguish the childhood asthma-predictive phenotype include male sex, history of wheezing with lower respiratory tract infections, history of parental asthma, history of atopic dermatitis, eosinophilia, early sensitization to food or aeroallergens, or lower lung function in early life. The preschool-aged asthma population tends to be characterized as exacerbation prone with relatively limited impairment. The diagnosis of asthma in preschool-aged children is often based on symptom patterns, presence of risk factors, and therapeutic responses. Asthma management includes intermittent and daily inhaled corticosteroids, daily leukotriene-receptor antagonists, and, in rare cases, combination therapies.

SUMMARY

The diagnosis of asthma in preschool-aged children is based on symptom patterns and the presence of risk factors, and the goals of asthma management are achieved through a partnership between the family and the healthcare team using regular assessment of symptom control and response to daily controller therapy.

Predicting asthma outcomes

This review addresses predictors of remission or persistence of wheezing and asthma from early childhood through adulthood. Early childhood wheezing is common, but predicting who will remit or have persistent childhood asthma remains difficult. By adding parental history of asthma and selected infant biomarkers to the history of recurrent wheezing, the Asthma Predictive Index and its subsequent modifications provide better predictions of persistence than simply the observation of recurrent wheeze. Sensitization, especially to multiple allergens, increases the likelihood of development of classic childhood asthma. Remission is more likely in male subjects and those with milder disease (less frequent and less severe symptoms), less atopic sensitization, a lesser degree of airway hyperresponsiveness, and no concomitant allergic disease. Conversely, persistence is linked strongly to allergic sensitization, greater frequency and severity of symptoms, abnormal lung function, and a greater degree of airway hyperresponsiveness. A genetic risk score might predict persistence more accurately than family history. Remission of established adult asthma is substantially less common than remission during childhood and adolescence. Loss of lung function can begin early in life and tracks through childhood and adolescence. Despite therapy which controls symptoms and exacerbations, the outcomes of asthma appear largely resistant to pharmacologic therapy.

Recurrent wheezing in children

Recurrent wheezing have a significant morbidity and it's estimated that about one third of school-age children manifest the symptom during the first 5 years of life. Proper identification of children at risk of developing asthma at school age may predict long-term outcomes and improve treatment and preventive approach, but the possibility to identify these children at preschool age remains limited. For many years authors focused their studies to identify early children with recurrent wheezing at risk to develop asthma at school age. Different phenotypes have been proposed for a more precise characterization and a personalized plan of treatment. The main criticism concerns the inability to define stable phenotypes with the risk of overestimating or underestimating the characteristics of symptoms in these children. The aim of this review is to report the recent developments on the diagnosis and treatment of recurrent paediatric wheezing.

A systematic review of predictive models for asthma development in children

BACKGROUND

Asthma is the most common pediatric chronic disease affecting 9.6 % of American children. Delay in asthma diagnosis is prevalent, resulting in suboptimal asthma management. To help avoid delay in asthma diagnosis and advance asthma prevention research, researchers have proposed various models to predict asthma development in children. This paper reviews these models.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted through searching in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, and OpenGrey up to June 3, 2015. The literature on predictive models for asthma development in children was retrieved, with search results limited to human subjects and children (birth to 18 years). Two independent reviewers screened the literature, performed data extraction, and assessed article quality.

RESULTS

The literature search returned 13,101 references in total. After manual review, 32 of these references were determined to be relevant and are discussed in the paper. We identify several limitations of existing predictive models for asthma development in children, and provide preliminary thoughts on how to address these limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing predictive models for asthma development in children have inadequate accuracy. Efforts to improve these models' performance are needed, but are limited by a lack of a gold standard for asthma development in children.

Childhood asthma prediction models: a systematic review

Early identification of children at risk of developing asthma at school age is crucial, but the usefulness of childhood asthma prediction models in clinical practice is still unclear. We systematically reviewed all existing prediction models to identify preschool children with asthma-like symptoms at risk of developing asthma at school age. Studies were included if they developed a new prediction model or updated an existing model in children aged 4 years or younger with asthma-like symptoms, with assessment of asthma done between 6 and 12 years of age. 12 prediction models were identified in four types of cohorts of preschool children: those with health-care visits, those with parent-reported symptoms, those at high risk of asthma, or children in the general population. Four basic models included non-invasive, easy-to-obtain predictors only, notably family history, allergic disease comorbidities or precursors of asthma, and severity of early symptoms. Eight extended models included additional clinical tests, mostly specific IgE determination. Some models could better predict asthma development and other models could better rule out asthma development, but the predictive performance of no single model stood out in both aspects simultaneously. This finding suggests that there is a large proportion of preschool children with wheeze for which prediction of asthma development is difficult.

Diagnosis and management of asthma in preschoolers: A Canadian Thoracic Society and Canadian Paediatric Society position paper

Asthma often starts before six years of age. However, there remains uncertainty as to when and how a preschool-age child with symptoms suggestive of asthma can be diagnosed with this condition. This delays treatment and contributes to both short- and long-term morbidity. Members of the Canadian Thoracic Society Asthma Clinical Assembly partnered with the Canadian Paediatric Society to develop a joint working group with the mandate to develop a position paper on the diagnosis and management of asthma in preschoolers. In the absence of lung function tests, the diagnosis of asthma should be considered in children one to five years of age with frequent (≥8 days/month) asthma-like symptoms or recurrent (≥2) exacerbations (episodes with asthma-like signs). The diagnosis requires the objective document of signs or convincing parent-reported symptoms of airflow obstruction (improvement in these signs or symptoms with asthma therapy), and no clinical suspicion of an alternative diagnosis. The characteristic feature of airflow obstruction is wheezing, commonly accompanied by difficulty breathing and cough. Reversibility with asthma medications is defined as direct observation of improvement with short-acting ß2-agonists (SABA) (with or without oral corticosteroids) by a trained health care practitioner during an acute exacerbation (preferred method). However, in children with no wheezing (or other signs of airflow obstruction) on presentation, reversibility may be determined by convincing parental report of a symptomatic response to a three-month therapeutic trial of a medium dose of inhaled corticosteroids with as-needed SABA (alternative method), or as-needed SABA alone (weaker alternative method). The authors provide key messages regarding in whom to consider the diagnosis, terms to be abandoned, when to refer to an asthma specialist and the initial management strategy. Finally, dissemination plans and priority areas for research are identified.

What lessons can be learned about asthma phenotypes in children from cohort studies?

'Phenotyping' asthma by multivariate analyses and more recently by unsupervised analysis has been performed in children cohorts. We describe the key findings that have emerged from these cohorts. It would appear that there are three wheeze phenotypes in children of preschool age: the mild episodic viral wheeze phenotype; the multitrigger atopic wheeze; and, less often encountered, the severe non-atopic wheeze. Early onset of allergy in asthma (more prevalent in boys) is associated with poor prognosis unlike the severe non-atopic wheeze phenotype which has a female predominance. The prognosis of the severe non-atopic wheeze depends on time of onset (early or late) of allergic expression. At school age, the risk of severe asthmatic exacerbations is associated with eosinophil predominant inflammation frequently related to allergic asthma, whereas neutrophil inflammation is associated with moderate-to-severe asthma with poorer lung function. Nevertheless, allergic asthma is also a heterogeneous disease with a severe allergic phenotype strongly associated with atopic dermatitis and very high eosinophil-driven inflammatory markers. Further studies are required to find non-invasive biological markers in very young children to better define wheezing phenotypes associated with an elevated risk of developing severe asthma with a view to personalizing treatment.

Diagnosis and management of asthma in preschoolers: A Canadian Thoracic Society and Canadian Paediatric Society position paper

Asthma often starts before six years of age. However, there remains uncertainty as to when and how a preschool-age child with symptoms suggestive of asthma can be diagnosed with this condition. This delays treatment and contributes to both short- and long-term morbidity. Members of the Canadian Thoracic Society Asthma Clinical Assembly partnered with the Canadian Paediatric Society to develop a joint working group with the mandate to develop a position paper on the diagnosis and management of asthma in preschoolers. In the absence of lung function tests, the diagnosis of asthma should be considered in children one to five years of age with frequent (≥ 8 days/month) asthma-like symptoms or recurrent (≥ 2) exacerbations (episodes with asthma-like signs). The diagnosis requires the objective document of signs or convincing parent-reported symptoms of airflow obstruction (improvement in these signs or symptoms with asthma therapy), and no clinical suspicion of an alternative diagnosis. The characteristic feature of airflow obstruction is wheezing, commonly accompanied by difficulty breathing and cough. Reversibility with asthma medications is defined as direct observation of improvement with short-acting ß2-agonists (SABA) (with or without oral corticosteroids) by a trained health care practitioner during an acute exacerbation (preferred method). However, in children with no wheezing (or other signs of airflow obstruction) on presentation, reversibility may be determined by convincing parental report of a symptomatic response to a three-month therapeutic trial of a medium dose of inhaled corticosteroids with as-needed SABA (alternative method), or as-needed SABA alone (weaker alternative method). The authors provide key messages regarding in whom to consider the diagnosis, terms to be abandoned, when to refer to an asthma specialist and the initial management strategy. Finally, dissemination plans and priority areas for research are identified.

Predicting asthma in preschool children at high risk presenting in primary care: development of a clinical asthma prediction score

BACKGROUND

A setting-specific asthma prediction score for preschool children with wheezing and/or dyspnoea presenting in primary healthcare is needed since existing indices are mainly based on general populations.

AIMS

To find an optimally informative yet practical set of predictors for the prediction of asthma in preschool children at high risk who present in primary healthcare.

METHODS

A total of 771 Dutch preschool children at high risk of asthma were followed prospectively until the age of six years. Data on asthma symptoms and environmental conditions were obtained using validated questionnaires and specific IgE was measured. At the age of six years the presence of asthma was assessed based on asthma symptoms, medication, and bronchial hyper-responsiveness. A clinical asthma prediction score (CAPS) was developed using bootstrapped multivariable regression methods.

RESULTS

In all, 438 children (56.8%) completed the study; the asthma prevalence at six years was 42.7%. Five parameters optimally predicted asthma: age, family history of asthma or allergy, wheezing-induced sleep disturbances, wheezing in the absence of common colds, and specific IgE. CAPS scores range from 0 to 11 points; scores <3 signified a negative predictive value of 78.4% while scores of >7 signified a positive predictive value of 74.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed an easy-to-use CAPS for preschool children with symptoms suggesting asthma who present in primary healthcare. After suitable validation, the CAPS may assist in guiding shared decision-making to tailor the need for medical or non-medical interventions. External validation of the CAPS is needed.

The novel 10-item asthma prediction tool: external validation in the German MAS birth cohort

Background

A novel non-invasive asthma prediction tool from the Leicester Cohort, UK, forecasts asthma at age 8 years based on 10 predictors assessed in early childhood, including current respiratory symptoms, eczema, and parental history of asthma.

Objective

We aimed to externally validate the proposed asthma prediction method in a German birth cohort.

Methods

The MAS-90 study (Multicentre Allergy Study) recorded details on allergic diseases prospectively in about yearly follow-up assessments up to age 20 years in a cohort of 1,314 children born 1990. We replicated the scoring method from the Leicester cohort and assessed prediction, performance and discrimination. The primary outcome was defined as the combination of parent-reported wheeze and asthma drugs (both in last 12 months) at age 8. Sensitivity analyses assessed model performance for outcomes related to asthma up to age 20 years.

Results

For 140 children parents reported current wheeze or cough at age 3 years. Score distribution and frequencies of later asthma resembled the Leicester cohort: 9% vs. 16% (MAS-90 vs. Leicester) of children at low risk at 3 years had asthma at 8 years, at medium risk 45% vs. 48%. Performance of the asthma prediction tool in the MAS-90 cohort was similar (Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.23) and discrimination slightly better than in the original cohort (area under the curve, AUC 0.83 vs. 0.78). Prediction and discrimination were robust against changes of inclusion criteria, scoring and outcome definitions. The secondary outcome ‘physicians’ diagnosed asthma at 20 years' showed the highest discrimination (AUC 0.89).

Conclusion

The novel asthma prediction tool from the Leicester cohort, UK, performed well in another population, a German birth cohort, supporting its use and further development as a simple aid to predict asthma risk in clinical settings.

Childhood asthma-predictive phenotype

Wheezing is a fairly common symptom in early childhood, but only some of these toddlers will experience continued wheezing symptoms in later childhood. The definition of the asthma-predictive phenotype is in children with frequent, recurrent wheezing in early life who have risk factors associated with the continuation of asthma symptoms in later life. Several asthma-predictive phenotypes were developed retrospectively based on large, longitudinal cohort studies; however, it can be difficult to differentiate these phenotypes clinically as the expression of symptoms, and risk factors can change with time. Genetic, environmental, developmental, and host factors and their interactions may contribute to the development, severity, and persistence of the asthma phenotype over time. Key characteristics that distinguish the childhood asthma-predictive phenotype include the following: male sex; a history of wheezing, with lower respiratory tract infections; history of parental asthma; history of atopic dermatitis; eosinophilia; early sensitization to food or aeroallergens; or lower lung function in early life.

Optimum predictors of childhood asthma: persistent wheeze or the Asthma Predictive Index?

BACKGROUND

The Asthma Predictive Index (API) and persistent wheezing phenotypes are associated with childhood asthma, but previous studies have not assessed their ability to predict objectively confirmed asthma.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the University of Cincinnati API Index (ucAPI) and/or persistent wheezing at age 3 can accurately predict objectively confirmed asthma at age 7.

METHODS

Data from the Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study, a high-risk prospective birth cohort, was used. Asthma was defined as parent-reported or physician-diagnosed asthma objectively confirmed by a change in FEV1 of ≥12% after bronchodilator or a positive methacholine challenge (PC20 ≤ 4 mg/mL); or as prior treatment with daily asthma controller medication(s). Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between confirmed asthma at age 7 and a positive ucAPI (adapted and modified from prior published API definitions) and persistent wheezing at age 3.

RESULTS

At age 7, 103 of 589 children (17.5%) satisfied the criteria for asthma. Confirmed asthma at age 7 was significantly associated with a positive ucAPI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 13.3 [95% CI, 7.0-25.2]; P < .01) and the persistent wheezing phenotype (aOR 9.8 [95% CI, 4.9-19.5]; P < .01) at age 3. Allergic persistent wheezing was associated with a significantly higher risk of asthma (aOR 10.4 [95% CI, 4.1-26.0]; P < .01) than nonallergic persistent wheezing (aOR 5.4 [95% CI, 2.04-14.06]; P < .01).

CONCLUSION

Both a positive ucAPI and persistent wheeze at age 3 were associated with objectively confirmed asthma at age 7; however, the highest risk was associated with ucAPI. These results demonstrate the ucAPI as a clinically useful tool for predicting future asthma in school-age children.

Infant wheeze, comorbidities and school age asthma

BACKGROUND

Factors associated with early onset of wheeze have been described, but there is limited knowledge on which of these infant wheezers who will have developed asthma in school age. The aim was to identify clinical risk factors for asthma in the 8-yr-old children that wheezed during infancy in a population-based setting.

METHODS

Three thousand two hundred and fifty-one children from a population-based birth cohort followed prospectively from infancy until age 8 yr were included in the study. Data were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Parents reported any wheeze episode before age 2 yr in 823 subjects (25%). Infant wheezers had an almost fourfold risk of asthma at age 8 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.68, 95% CI 2.74-4.96], equivalent to an asthma prevalence of 14% compared with 4% among non-wheezers (p < 0.001). After adjustments for sex, exposure to tobacco smoke and indoor dampness/mould, allergic heredity (aOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.02-2.30), increased frequency of wheeze (aOR 3.41, 95% CI 2.09-5.56 for children with ≥3 episodes compared with ≤2 episodes during the first 2 yr of life), infant eczema (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.52-3.49), and recurrent abdominal pain (aOR 2.33, 95% CI 1.30-4.16) remained risk factors for school age asthma in the infant wheezing group.

CONCLUSIONS

Among infant wheezers, allergic heredity, increased severity of wheeze, infant eczema, and recurrent abdominal pain were independent risk factors for asthma at age 8 yr. Among children with three or four of these risk factors, 38% had asthma at school age.

Exhaled nitric oxide predicts persistence of wheezing, exacerbations, and decline in lung function in wheezy infants and toddlers

BACKGROUND

There are limited data assessing the predictive value of fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FENO ) for persistence of wheezing, exacerbations, or lung function change over time in infants/toddlers with recurrent wheezing.

OBJECTIVES

In an ongoing longitudinal cohort of infants and toddlers with recurrent wheezing, we compared predictive values of single-breath FENO (SB-FENO ), tidal-breathing mixed expired FENO (tidal-FENO ), bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR) and the Castro-Rodriquez Asthma Predictive Index (API) for persistence of wheezing, exacerbations and lung function change through age 3 years.

METHODS

Enrolment forced expiratory flows and volumes infant pulmonary function tests (iPFTs) were measured in 44 infants/toddlers using the raised volume rapid thoracoabdominal compression method. SB-FENO was measured at 50 mL/s, and tidal-FENO was measured during awake tidal breathing. Clinical outcomes were assessed at age 3 years in 42 infants. Follow-up iPFTs were completed between ages 2.5-3 years in 32 subjects.

RESULTS

An enrolment SB-FENO concentration ≥ 30 p.p.b. predicted persistence of wheezing at age 3 years with a sensitivity of 77%, a specificity of 94%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74-0.98). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, and negative predictive values of SB-FENO for persistence of wheezing and exacerbations were superior to tidal-FENO , BDR, and the API. SB-FENO ≥ 30 p.p.b. and tidal-FENO ≥ 7 p.p.b. measured at enrolment was associated with a decline in both FEV0.5 and FEF25-75 between enrolment and age 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In wheezy infants/toddlers, SB-FENO was superior to tidal-FENO , BDR, and the API in predicting future exacerbations and persistence of wheezing at age 3 years. Both SB-FENO and tidal-FENO were associated with lung function decline over time.

Wheeze phenotypes in young children have different courses during the preschool period

BACKGROUND

Rules for predicting the course of asthma in wheezy infants have low specificity.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the novel phenotypes-mild early viral wheeze (EVW), atopic multiple-trigger wheeze (MTW), and nonatopic uncontrolled wheeze (NAUW)-have different courses during the preschool period.

METHODS

Part of the prospectively followed Trousseau Asthma Program cohort was phenotyped using cluster analysis with 12 parameters (sex, asthma severity and control with inhaled corticosteroid [ICS], parental asthma, allergic rhinitis, eczema, food allergy, EVW or MTW, and allergen exposure trigger). Wheezing trajectories were assessed by crossing the original phenotypes with the phenotypes obtained at 5 years.

RESULTS

Four clusters were identified at 5 years of age: asymptomatic children (n = 47) with no wheezing (98%), children with mild EVW (n = 40, 87% with EVW, 50% with EVW controlled with low-dose ICS), those with atopic MTW (n = 30, 100% with MTW, only 17% with MTW controlled with low-dose ICS, more significant for pollen asthmatic trigger), and those with atopic severe UW (n = 33, 63% with UW uncontrolled despite high doses of ICS, more significant for allergic rhinitis and dust as asthmatic trigger). Those with mild EVW became asymptomatic or remained with mild EVW. Those with atopic MTW remained with atopic MTW and those with NAUW developed severe UW in most cases.

CONCLUSION

These results show that remission is most frequently observed in mild EVW and that no remission is observed in atopic MTW.

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough

BACKGROUND

Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough.

METHODS

From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Severe bronchiolitis in infancy: can asthma in adolescence be predicted?

Bronchiolitis in infancy is a risk factor for development of asthma in the first decades of life, although the majority may be asymptomatic at school age. Respiratory symptoms are common in early life, and prediction of later asthma may be challenging. We aimed to study if simple clinical variables assessed at 2 years of age could predict asthma at 11 years of age and thereby provide a basis for follow-up and treatment after bronchiolitis in infancy. The study included 105 children hospitalized for bronchiolitis during their first year of life. Of these, 101 (96.2%) participated in the first follow-up at 2 years of age and 93 (88.6%) in the second follow-up at age 11. The overall prevalence of asthma at 11 years of age was 22.6%. Among the risk factors assessed at 2 years of age, recurrent wheeze appeared most important (odds ratio for later asthma: 7.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.3, 41.6; P = 0.015). Tested separately, recurrent wheeze had high sensitivity (90.5%), but low specificity (58.3%), low negative likelihood ratio (LR) (0.2) and low negative post-test probability (4.5%); indicating that absence of recurrent wheeze was better suited to exclude than to predict asthma at 11 years of age. Combining recurrent wheeze with either parental atopy, parental asthma or atopic dermatitis improved the specificity (>80), positive LR (>3) and positive post-test probability (∼50%), rendering the combinations more appropriate for the prediction of later asthma. In conclusion, after bronchiolitis in infancy, simple clinical non-invasive variables assessed at 2 years of age could predict asthma at 11 years of age with reasonable accuracy. However, the data were better suited to exclude than to predict later asthma.

Exhaled nitric oxide in symptomatic children at preschool age predicts later asthma

BACKGROUND

Prediction of asthma in young children with respiratory symptoms is hampered by the lack of objective measures applicable in clinical routine. In this prospective study in a preschool children cohort, we assessed whether the fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), a biomarker of airway inflammation, is associated with asthma at school age.

METHODS

At baseline, IgE and eosinophils were measured in the blood, and FeNO was measured offline in 391 children aged 3-47 months with lower airway symptoms. We developed an asthma predictive index (API) including high FeNO as major criterion. At follow-up, primary outcome was physician-diagnosed asthma based on standardized interviews in those children reaching school age (n = 166).

RESULTS

FeNO was significantly elevated in those children with later asthma (68/166) as compared to children not developing asthma. Median (IQR) FeNO was 10.5 (6.6-17.2) vs. 7.4 (5.3-10.3) ppb. Per 5 ppb FeNO increase, the odds ratio (95% CI) for asthma increased by 2.44 (1.61-3.70) without changing when adjusting for confounders. Using the new API, children scored at risk had 58.0% probability for later asthma, whereas the negative predictive value was 78.2%, which was comparable to the classical API.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of high-risk preschool children, elevated FeNO is associated with increased risk for school-age asthma. The new API including FeNO identifies children at risk of later asthma comparably to the classical API, but does not require blood sampling.

Predicting persistence of asthma in preschool wheezers: crystal balls or muddy waters?

Since preschool wheezing is the common expression of several heterogeneous disorders, identification of children at risk for persistent asthma is particularly challenging. To date, efforts to predict the outcome of preschool wheeze have mainly relied on predictive rules consisting of simple clinical and laboratory parameters. Among these tools, the asthma predictive index (API) has been introduced in international guidelines and position papers and is recommended for use in clinical practice. This article reviews the currently available asthma predictive models focusing on their validity and performance characteristics. Although these tools are generally simple and easy to apply, they suffer important intrinsic and practical limitations and they have been insufficiently validated to allow for widespread use in clinical settings. We also present evidence that their ability to predict the long-term outcome of preschool wheeze is limited in general populations, and even poorer in high-risk children in which prediction of asthma persistence might have important clinical and prognostic implications. Due to the complex and multifactorial nature of asthma, prediction of asthma persistence based on simple clinical models is practically impossible.