Mortality in Nursing Homes Following Emergency Evacuation: A Systematic Review

Climate Change and Aging: Implications for Psychiatric Care

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We reviewed recent evidence regarding the impact of climate change (specifically, high ambient temperatures, heatwaves, weather-related disasters, and air pollution) on older adults' mental health. We also summarized evidence regarding other medical problems that can occur in aging adults in connection with climate change, resulting in psychiatric manifestations or influencing psychopharmacological management.

RECENT FINDINGS

Older adults can experience anxiety, depressive, and/or posttraumatic stress symptoms, as well as sleep disturbances in the aftermath of climate disasters. Cognitive deficits may occur with exposure to air pollutants, heatwaves, or post-disaster. Individuals with major neurocognitive disorders and/or preexisting psychiatric illness have a higher risk of psychiatric hospitalizations after exposure to high temperatures and air pollution. There is a growing body of research regarding psychiatric clinical presentations associated with climate change in older adults. However, there is a paucity of evidence on management strategies. Future research should investigate culturally appropriate, cost-effective psychosocial and pharmacological interventions.

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Health Outcomes of Nursing Home Residents Receiving Post-Acute Care and Long-Term Care: A Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

To systematically examine the evidence of the association between extreme weather events (EWEs) and adverse health outcomes among short-stay patients undergoing post-acute care (PAC) and long-stay residents in nursing homes (NHs).

DESIGN

This is a scoping review. The findings were reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Extension for Scoping Reviews checklist.

SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

Studies published on short-stay PAC and long-stay residents in NHs.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in 6 databases. Studies retrieved were screened for eligibility against predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Studies were qualitatively synthesized based on the EWE, health outcomes, and special populations studied.

RESULTS

Of the 5044 studies reviewed, 10 met our inclusion criteria. All were retrospective cohort studies. Nine studies examined the association between hurricane exposure, defined inconsistently across studies, and PAC patients and long-stay residents in the NH setting in the Southern United States; the other study focused on post-flood risk among North Dakota NH residents. Nine studies focused on long-stay NH residents receiving custodial care, and 1 focused on patients receiving PAC. Outcomes examined were unplanned hospitalization rates and mortality rates within 30 and 90 days and changes in cognitive impairment. Nine studies consistently found an association between hurricane exposure and increased risk of 30- and 90-day mortality compared to unexposed residents.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Of the EWEs examined, hurricanes are associated with an increased risk of mortality among long-stay NH residents and those admitted to hospice, and with increased risk of hospitalization for short-stay PAC patients. As the threat of climate-amplified EWEs increases, future studies of NH residents should evaluate the impact of all types of EWEs, and not solely hurricanes, across wider geographic regions, and include longer-term health outcomes, associated costs, and analyses of potential disparities associated with vulnerable populations in NHs.

"We Used to Have Four Seasons, but Now There Is Only One": Perceptions Concerning the Changing Climate and Environment in a Diverse Sample of Israeli Older Persons

Solastalgia is the pain caused by the loss of solace and isolation from one's environment. Solastalgia is contrasted with nostalgia, which is defined as melancholy characterized by homesickness or the distance from one's home. The present study examines the two concepts of solastalgia and nostalgia in the context of climate change among diverse populations of older Israelis. In total, 50 older persons from four different population groups (e.g., veteran Israeli Jews, Israeli Arabs, immigrants from the former Soviet Union, and Ethiopian immigrants) were interviewed. All interviews were transcribed and analyzed thematically. Members of all four groups expressed emotional distress and grief associated with the changing climate, increased environmental pollution, and the disappearance of nature. Perceptions around the undesirability of these changes were quite unanimous, thus leading us to conclude that the outcomes associated with solastalgia and nostalgia are quite similar despite different etiological explanations.

Improving Nursing Home Disaster Readiness Through Implementation Science

As large-scale disasters continue to become increasingly common worldwide, nursing homes, whose residents are more vulnerable to disaster-related health and psychosocial shocks, and their staff, are carrying progressively more responsibility for health care readiness practices. Implementation science is a research discipline that seeks to improve uptake of evidence-based practices, such as health care readiness planning, and thus has potential to improve nursing home care delivery during and after disasters. We describe the limited field of existing evidence-based strategies in the peer-reviewed literature that seek to advance health care readiness in the nursing home setting and illustrate how implementation science can better support health care readiness planning for nursing homes. We rest on 3 main themes: (1) implementation science frameworks can strengthen nursing home staff engagement around health care readiness; (2) implementation science can support tailoring of emergency preparedness plans to individual nursing homes' unique needs; and (3) implementation science can advance the integration of nursing homes into local, state, and federal health care readiness planning initiatives. Finally, research is urgently needed to both generate and disseminate implementation strategies that increase uptake of evidence-based health care readiness practices in the nursing home setting.

Evacuation and Health Care Outcomes Among Assisted Living Residents After Hurricane Irma

Importance

Evacuation has been found to be associated with adverse outcomes among nursing home residents during hurricanes, but the outcomes for assisted living (AL) residents remain unknown.

Objective

To examine the association between evacuation and health care outcomes (ie, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, mortality, and nursing home visits) among Florida AL residents exposed to Hurricane Irma.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Retrospective cohort study using 2017 Medicare claims data. Participants were a cohort of Florida AL residents who were aged 65 years or older, enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service, and resided in 9-digit zip codes corresponding to US assisted living communities with 25 or more beds on September 10, 2017, the day of Hurricane Irma's landfall. Propensity score matching was used to match evacuated residents to those that sheltered-in-place based on resident and AL characteristics. Data were analyzed from September 2022 to February 2024.

Exposure

Whether the AL community evacuated or sheltered-in-place before Hurricane Irma made landfall.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Thirty- and 90-day emergency department visits, hospitalizations, mortality, and nursing home admissions.

Results

The study cohort included 25 130 Florida AL residents (mean [SD] age 81 [9] years); 3402 (13.5%) evacuated and 21 728 (86.5%) did not evacuate. The evacuated group had 2223 women (65.3%), and the group that sheltered-in-place had 14 556 women (67.0%). In the evacuated group, 42 residents (1.2%) were Black, 93 (2.7%) were Hispanic, and 3225 (94.8%) were White. In the group that sheltered in place, 490 residents (2.3%) were Black, 707 (3.3%) were Hispanic, and 20 212 (93.0%) were White. After 1:4 propensity score matching, when compared with sheltering-in-place, evacuation was associated with a 16% greater odds of emergency department visits (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33; P = .04) and 51% greater odds of nursing home visits (AOR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.14-2.00; P = .01) within 30 days of Hurricane Irma's landfall. Hospitalization and mortality did not vary significantly by evacuation status within 30 or 90 days after the landfall date.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of Florida AL residents, there was an increased risk of nursing home and emergency department visits within 30 days of Hurricane Irma's landfall among residents from communities that evacuated before the storm when compared with residents from communities that sheltered-in-place. The stress and disruption caused by evacuation may yield poorer immediate health outcomes after a major storm for AL residents. Therefore, the potential benefits and harms of evacuating vs sheltering-in-place must be carefully considered when developing emergency planning and response.

Evacuation safety effects of a lightweight elevator-type evacuation device using carbon material: Focus on plantar pressure and muscle strength

BACKGROUND

Elevator-type evacuation devices have proven to be feasible in high-rise buildings through studies on safety performance and evacuation time. However, there is a lack of research on safety using biosignal analysis in the elderly population.

OBJECTIVE

A carbon material is used in this study to reduce the weight of an evacuation elevator. The impact on the human body is evaluated by conducting a satisfaction survey involving elderly and youth groups and quantitatively analyzing biological signals, including electromyography (EMG) and plantar pressure, during five repeated uses of the proposed device.

METHODS

The study involves 12 healthy adults in their 20s and 20 elderly individuals with no experience in using an evacuation elevator. The EMG and left and right plantar pressures are analyzed to evaluate the physical factors affected by repeated use.

RESULTS

The experiment results showed that the normalization of EMG to maximum voluntary contraction showed a significant decrease with repeated use, especially in the right tibialis anterior muscle. Moreover, plantar pressure shows a significant difference, which decreased with repetition, and the left and right balance gradually tilted to the left.

CONCLUSION

This suggests that with more repeated use, muscle tension decreases owing to adaptation, resulting in lower muscle activity and plantar pressure. Particularly, the tibialis anterior muscle experiences significant muscle activity, indicating increased load, but without any apparent danger. In the future, it will be necessary to evaluate elevators for disabled individuals.

Asthma and landscape fire smoke: A Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement

Landscape fires are increasing in frequency and severity globally. In Australia, extreme bushfires cause a large and increasing health and socioeconomic burden for communities and governments. People with asthma are particularly vulnerable to the effects of landscape fire smoke (LFS) exposure. Here, we present a position statement from the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand. Within this statement we provide a review of the impact of LFS on adults and children with asthma, highlighting the greater impact of LFS on vulnerable groups, particularly older people, pregnant women and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. We also highlight the development of asthma on the background of risk factors (smoking, occupation and atopy). Within this document we present advice for asthma management, smoke mitigation strategies and access to air quality information, that should be implemented during periods of LFS. We promote clinician awareness, and the implementation of public health messaging and preparation, especially for people with asthma.

Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine death occurrences of Puerto Ricans on the mainland USA following the arrival of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in September 2017.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

Persons of Puerto Rican origin on the mainland USA.

EXPOSURES

Hurricane Maria.

MAIN OUTCOME

We use an interrupted time series design to analyse all-cause mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA following the hurricane. Hispanic origin data from the National Vital Statistics System and from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey are used to estimate monthly origin-specific mortality rates for the period 2012-2018. We estimated log-linear regressions of monthly deaths of persons of Puerto Rican origin by age group, gender, and educational attainment.

RESULTS

We found an increase in mortality for persons of Puerto Rican origin during the 6-month period following the hurricane (October 2017 through March 2018), suggesting that deaths among these persons were 3.7% (95% CI 0.025 to 0.049) higher than would have otherwise been expected. In absolute terms, we estimated 514 excess deaths (95% CI 346 to 681) of persons of Puerto Rican origin that occurred on the mainland USA, concentrated in those aged 65 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest an undercounting of previous deaths as a result of the hurricane due to the systematic effects on the displaced and resident populations in the mainland USA. Displaced populations are frequently overlooked in disaster relief and subsequent research. Ignoring these populations provides an incomplete understanding of the damages and loss of life.

Nursing Home Compare Star Rating and Daily Direct-Care Nurse Staffing During Hurricane Irma

OBJECTIVES

Nursing homes (NHs) are affected by major hurricanes and other natural disasters. To mitigate adverse effects of a major hurricane, NHs often increase their direct-care nurse staffing levels to meet the needs of their residents. However, the quality rating of the NH may affect the resources available to obtain and retain staff. This data brief provides estimates of direct-care nurse staffing levels by quality star rating during Hurricane Irma.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study from September 3, 2017, to September 10, 2017.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

570 Florida NHs that sheltered in place during Hurricane Irma.

METHODS

We stratified NHs by their NH Compare overall quality star rating and then measured change in direct-care nurse staffing levels for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and certified nursing assistants.

RESULTS

We found that the NH Compare overall star rating was positively associated with a greater staffing level response during Hurricane Irma among registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and certified nursing assistants. This change was largest for 5-star facilities and smallest for 1-star facilities.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Higher-quality NHs may be more responsive and have the resources to be more responsive, to increased needs during a natural disaster. Our findings may serve as a platform for ongoing discussion on the role of the federal, state, and local governments in ensuring minimum staffing standards during natural disasters.

Climate Change and Mental Health of Older Persons: A Human Rights Imperative

Climate change threatens the basic prerequisites for wellbeing, including clean air and water, food supply and the adequacy and security of shelter. Climate change is a powerful and ongoing presence in the lives of older persons, both creating and exacerbating vulnerabilities. The absence of a legally binding international instrument specifically protecting the human rights of older persons and minimal references to older persons in key international climate instruments attest to the lack of attention to and visibility of older persons in national and international law. There is a need to integrate the areas of older people and environmental sustainability to ensure that the rights of older people are preserved especially now, as the effects of the climate change crisis become more pronounced.

"You Just Forge Ahead": The Continuing Challenges of Disaster Preparedness and Response in Long-Term Care

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Protecting nursing home and assisted living community residents during disasters continues to be a challenge. The present study explores the experiences of long-term care facilities in Florida that were exposed to Hurricane Irma in 2017.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used an abductive approach, combining induction and deduction. Interviews and focus groups beginning in May 2018 were conducted by telephone and in person with 89 administrative staff members representing 100 facilities (30 nursing homes and 70 assisted living communities). Analyses identified themes and subthemes. Findings were further analyzed using the social ecological model to better understand the preparedness and response of nursing homes and assisted living communities to Hurricane Irma.

RESULTS

3 main themes were identified including: (1) importance of collaborative relationships in anticipating needs and planning to shelter in place or evacuate; (2) efforts required to maintain safety and stability during an unprecedented event; and (3) effects, repercussions, and recommendations for change following the disaster.

DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS

Preparing for and managing disasters in nursing homes and assisted living communities involves actions within multiple environments beyond the residents and facilities where they live. Among these, community-level relationships are critical.

A Proactive Nursing Home Risk Stratification Model for Disaster Response: Lessons Learned from COVID-19 to Optimize Resource Allocation

A coordinated emergency management response to disaster management in nursing homes is desperately needed globally. During the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, aside from a few exemplary countries, most countries have struggled to protect their nursing home populations. Timely and appropriate allocation of resources to nursing homes during disaster response is a challenging yet crucial task to prevent morbidity and mortality of residents. The responsibility for the management of nursing homes during the pandemic was multifaceted, and responsibilities lay at the national, jurisdictional, and regional levels. Success in managing COVID-19 in nursing homes required all these levels to be aligned and supportive, ideally through management by an emergency response leadership team. However, globally there is a paucity of effective management strategies. This article uses the example of the COVID-19 pandemic to propose a risk stratification system to ensure timely and appropriate allocation of resources to nursing homes during disaster preparation and management. Nursing homes should be risk-stratified according to 4 domains: risk of intrusion, capability for outbreak containment, failure in organizational capability, and failure in the availability of community and health care supports. Risk stratification should also consider factors such as current levels of community transmission, if applicable, and geographic location of nursing homes and services. Early identification of nursing homes at risk for infectious disease, or disasters, and targeted allocation of resources might help reduce the number of outbreaks, lower the mortality, and preserve community supports such as acute hospital services. The next step is to debate this concept to validate the selected variables and then develop and pilot test a risk stratification tool for use.

Effect of Hurricane Irma on daily direct-care nurse staffing in nursing homes

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effect of Hurricane Irma on staff-related financial expenditures and daily direct-care nurse staffing levels.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

September 3-24, 2017 in the state of Florida, United States. Hurricane Irma made landfall on September 10, 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

Six hundred and fifty-three nursing homes (NHs), 81 evacuated facilities, and 572 facilities that sheltered-in-place.

MEASUREMENTS

This study used data from Payroll-Based Journaling (PBJ), Certification and Survey Provider Enhanced Reports (CASPER), and Florida's health providers' emergency reporting system. PBJ provided estimates of daily direct-care nurse staffing levels for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and certified nursing assistants. CASPER reported facility-level characteristics such as profit status, chain membership, and special care unit availability. Florida's emergency reporting system identified evacuation status during Hurricane Irma. Linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the unique contribution of evacuation status on daily staffing increases over time from September 3 to 10.

RESULTS

Among all facilities, we found significant increases in staffing for licensed practical nurses (p = 0.02) and certified nursing assistants (p < 0.001), but not for registered nurses (p = 0.10) before Hurricane Irma made landfall. From 1 week before landfall to 2 weeks after landfall (September 3-24), an additional estimated $2.41 million was spent on direct-care nurse staffing. In comparison to facilities that sheltered-in-place, evacuated facilities increased staffing levels of all nurse types (all p < 0.001). At landfall, evacuated facilities spent an estimated $93.74 on nurse staffing per resident whereas facilities that sheltered-in-place spent $76.10 on nurse staffing per resident.

CONCLUSION

NHs face unprecedented challenges during hurricanes, including maintaining adequate direct-care nurse staffing levels to meet the needs of their residents. NHs that evacuated residents had an increase in direct-care nurse staffing that was greater than that seen in NHs that sheltered-in-place.

Public Health Messaging During Extreme Smoke Events: Are We Hitting the Mark?

Background: Emergency services working to protect communities from harm during wildfires aim to provide regular public advisories on the hazards from fire and smoke. However, there are few studies evaluating the success of public health communications regarding the management of smoke exposure. We explored the responses to smoke-related health advisories of people living in a severely smoke-affected region during extensive wildfires in Tasmania, Australia early in 2019. We also evaluated the acceptability of portable high efficiency particle air (HEPA) cleaners used in study participant's homes during the smoky period.

Methods: We conducted semi-structured interviews with 24 households in the Huon Valley region of Tasmania following a severe smoke episode. These households were initially recruited into a HEPA cleaner study. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed for common themes using an inductive framework approach.

Results: Public health messaging during the 2019 wildfire event in Tasmania was widely shared and understood, with social media playing a central role. However, some participants expressed concerns about the timeliness and effectiveness of the recommended interventions, and some would have appreciated more detailed information about the health risks from smoke. Public messages and actions to protect households from wildfire threat were, at times, contradictory or dominated in coverage over the smoke messaging, and many participants were conflicted with the multiple public messages and action relating to the more serious perceived threat from the fire.

Conclusions: Public messaging about smoke and health should continue to use multiple avenues of communication, with a focus on simple messages provided through social media. Messaging about the smoke hazard should be available from a trusted central source regarding all aspects of the wildfire emergency, with links to more detailed information including local air quality data alongside interpretation of the associated health risks.

Assisted Living Communities During Hurricane Irma: The Decision to Evacuate or Shelter in Place and Resident Acuity

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the factors associated with whether assisted living communities (ALCs) in Florida evacuated or sheltered in place for Hurricane Irma in 2017, focusing on license type as a proxy for acuity of care.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using data collected by the state through its emergency reporting system and a post-hurricane survey.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Analyses included all 3112 ALCs in the emergency reporting system. A subset of 1880 that completed the survey provided supplementary data.

METHODS

χ2 tests were used to examine differences between ALC characteristics (license type, size, payment, profit status, rural location, geographical region, and being under an evacuation order) and whether they evacuated. Logistic regression was used to test associations between characteristics and evacuation status.

RESULTS

Of 3112 ALCs, 560 evacuated and 2552 sheltered in place. Bivariate analysis found significant associations between evacuation status and evacuation order, license type (mental health care), payment, and region. In the adjusted analysis, medium and larger ALCs were 43% (P < .001) and 53% (P < .001) less likely to evacuate than ALCs with fewer than 25 beds. Compared with ALCs in the Southeast, nearly every region was more likely to evacuate, with the highest likelihood in the Central West (odds ratio 1.76, 95% confidence interval 1.35‒2.30). ALCs under an evacuation order were 8 times more likely to evacuate (P < .001). We found no relationship between evacuation status and having a license to provide higher care.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Prior research highlighting harm associated with evacuation has led to recommendations that long-term care facilities carefully consider resident impairment in evacuation decision-making. Evidence that small ALCs are more likely to evacuate and that having a higher-care license is not associated with evacuation likelihood shows research is needed to understand how ALCs weigh resident risks in decisions to evacuate or shelter in place.

Special Populations: Disaster Care Considerations in Chronically Ill, Pregnant, and Morbidly Obese Patients

Special populations, which include the morbidly obese and patients with chronic, complex medical conditions that require long-term health care services and infrastructure, are at increased risk for morbidity and mortality when these services are disrupted during a disaster. Past experiences have identified significant challenges in restoring necessary care services to these patients following major environmental events. This article describes the impact of disasters on special populations, provides a framework for future disaster preparation and planning, and identifies areas in need of further research. Gravid patients, who are often overlooked in disaster planning and preparation, are also discussed.

A Comparative Survival Analysis Between Evacuees and Nonevacuees Among Dialysis Patients in Fukushima Prefecture After Japan's 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Incident

OBJECTIVE

There has been little research on the health consequences of evacuation in the disaster context. A comparative analysis of survival between evacuated and nonevacuated hospital dialysis patients was conducted following Japan's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant incident, which occurred on March 11, 2011.

METHODS

The study included 554 patients (mean age: 70.9) receiving dialysis therapy at one of the Tokiwakai Group hospitals-all of which are located in and around Iwaki City, approximately 50 km from the Fukushima nuclear plant-as of the incident date. The patients' survival after the incident was tracked until March 3, 2017. Significant differences in mortality rates between postincident evacuees and nonevacuees were tested using the Bayesian survival analysis with Weibull multivariate regression.

RESULTS

Out of 554 dialysis patients, 418 (75.5%) were evacuated after the incident. The postincident mortality rate (adjusted for covariates) of evacuees was not statistically significantly different from that of nonevacuees. The hazard ratio was 1.17 (95% credible intervals: 0.77-1.74).

CONCLUSIONS

If performed in a well-planned manner with satisfactory arrangements for appropriate selection of evacuees and their transportation, evacuation could be a reasonable option, which might save more lives of vulnerable people.

A national survey of aged care facility managers' views of preparedness for natural disasters relevant to residents with dementia

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to explore the natural disaster preparedness strategies of Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs), focussing on aspects relevant to people with dementia.

METHODS

An online survey was sent to 2617 RACF managers, with 416 responding. Questions included the following: (a) demographics; (b) presence and detail level of disaster/evacuation plans; and (c) references to people with dementia.

RESULTS

One in four facilities had experienced a natural disaster in the previous five years. The majority had plans for natural disaster and evacuation. Two-thirds recognised the unique needs of people with dementia. Managers anticipated that residents with dementia would require more staff time and resources and might become disoriented.

CONCLUSIONS

Gaps identified in existing RACF evacuation plans highlighted challenges in ensuring the ongoing safety and care of residents, especially those with dementia. Facilities need to have adequate plans and processes that minimise the potential risks of natural disasters.

Balancing the risk of the evacuation and sheltering-in-place options: a survival study following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident

OBJECTIVE

The decision to evacuate or shelter-in-place is fundamental to emergency response, especially for a vulnerable population. While an elevated risk of mortality due to a hasty, unplanned evacuation has been well documented, there is little research on and knowledge about the health consequences of sheltering-in-place in disaster contexts. We compared hospital mortality in patients who sheltered-in-place (non-evacuees) after the incident with the baseline preincident mortality and articulated postincident circumstances of the hospital while sheltering-in-place.

PARTICIPANTS

We considered all 484 patients admitted to Takano Hospital (located 22 km South of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant) from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2016.

METHODS

Significant differences in mortality rates between preincident baseline and three postincident groups (evacuees, non-evacuees (our major interest) and new admittees) were tested using the Bayesian survival analysis with Weibull multivariate regression and survival probability using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. All the analyses were separately performed by the internal and psychiatry department.

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, non-evacuees in the internal department had a significantly higher mortality risk with an HR of 1.57 (95% credible intervals 1.11 to 2.18) than the baseline preincident. Of them, most deaths occurred within the first 100 days of the incident. No significant increase in mortality risk was identified in evacuees and new admittees postincident in the department, which were adjusted for covariates. In contrast, for the psychiatry department, statistical difference in mortality risk was not identified in any groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality risk of sheltering-in-place in a harsh environment might be comparable to those in an unplanned evacuation. If sheltering-in-place with sufficient resources is not guaranteed, evacuation could be a reasonable option, which might save more lives of vulnerable people if performed in a well-planned manner with satisfactory arrangements for appropriate transportation and places to safely evacuate.

Importance of risk comparison for individual and societal decision-making after the Fukushima disaster

Risk comparison is essential for effective societal and individual decision-making. After the Fukushima disaster, studies compared radiation and other disaster-related risks to determine the effective prioritizing of measures for response. Evaluating the value of risk comparison information can enable effective risk communication. In this review, the value of risk comparison after the Fukushima disaster for societal and individual decision-making is discussed while clarifying the concept of radiation risk assessment at low doses. The objectives of radiation risk assessment are explained within a regulatory science framework, including the historical adoption of the linear non-threshold theory. An example of risk comparison (i.e. radiation risk versus evacuation-related risk in nursing homes) is used to discuss the prioritization of pre-disaster measures. The effective communication of risk information by authorities is discussed with respect to group-based and face-to-face approaches. Furthermore, future perspectives regarding radiation risk comparisons are discussed.