Severe hypoglycemia is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation in type 2 diabetes mellitus: Nationwide population-based cohort study

Energy stress induced cardiac autophagy detection via a chronic and dynamic cardiomyocytes-based biosensing platform

Hypoglycemia is a common complication which occurs during the treatment of diabetes, closely associated with cardiovascular events. A sudden decrease in blood glucose increases the risk of arrhythmia, which can lead to sudden cardiac death. This event is usually accompanied by abnormal electrophysiological activities in cardiomyocytes. However, traditional models do not efficiently reflect real-time cardiomyocyte electrophysiological changes under various glucose deprivation conditions in a large-scale and high-throughput manner. Therefore, we need to develop a new biosensing platform to aid in related scientific research. In this study, a cardiomyocyte-based biosensor was developed for real-time, noninvasive monitoring of the electrophysiological responses of cardiomyocytes under different glucose concentrations. The findings show that low-glucose conditions result in abnormal electrophysiology in cardiomyocytes, but autophagy enables cells to survive this adversity. Inhibition of autophagy exacerbates electrophysiological abnormalities, and long-term glucose starvation causes irreversible damage to cardiomyocytes. The proposed chronic and dynamic cardiomyocyte-based biosensing platform provides a new tool for understanding the effects of hypoglycemia on the in vitro cardiomyocyte-based heart model, revealing that autophagy has the potential to be an alternative treatment for diabetes and hypoglycemia.

The Role of Sodium Glucose Co-Transporter 2 Inhibitors in Atrial Fibrillation: A Comprehensive Review

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent arrhythmia among adults worldwide, frequently co-occurring with comorbidities such as Heart Failure (HF) and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). This association contributes to increased morbidity and mortality, elevated healthcare costs, and diminished quality of life. Consequently, preventing or delaying the onset and recurrence of AF is crucial for reducing the incidence of complications. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is), due to their multifaceted pharmacological actions, have been proposed as potential therapeutic agents in the management of AF. However, current evidence from both animal models and clinical studies remains inconclusive. This narrative literature review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of existing evidence on the impact of SGLT2is on the prevalence, incidence of new-onset, and recurrence of AF in diabetic populations and patients with HF. Numerous observational studies, predominantly retrospective, suggest a consistent reduction in AF risk with SGLT2is, while randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have yielded mixed results, with some demonstrating benefits and others not reaching statistical significance. The heterogeneity in study outcomes, population characteristics, follow-up duration, and specific SGLT2is used, as well as potential biases, underscore the need for further extensive and rigorous RCTs to establish definitive conclusions and elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Association between triglyceride glucose-body mass index and all-cause mortality in critically ill patients with acute myocardial infarction: retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

Background

Insulin resistance (IR) is closely related to the development of cardiovascular diseases. Triglyceride-glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) has been proven to be a reliable surrogate of IR, but the relationship between TyG-BMI and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unknown. The present study aims to determine the effects of TyG-BMI on the clinical prognosis of critically ill patients with AMI.

Methods

The data of AMI patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. All patients were divided into four groups according to the TyG-BMI quartile. Outcomes were defined as 30-, 90-, 180-, and 365-day all-cause mortality. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve was used to compare survival rate between groups. Meanwhile, Cox regression analysis and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to explore the relationship between TyG-BMI index and outcome events.

Results

A total of 1,188 critically ill patients with AMI were included in this study. They were divided into four groups according to TyG-BMI quartiles, there were significant differences in 90-, 180-, and 365-day all-cause mortality while there was no difference in 30-day all-cause mortality. Interestingly, with the increase of TyG-BMI, the 90-, 180-, and 365-day survival rate increased first and then gradually decreased, but the survival rate after decreasing was still higher than that in the group with the lowest TyG-BMI. U-shaped relationships between TyG-BMI index and 90-, 180-, and 365-day all-cause mortality were identified using RCS curve and the inflection point was 311.1, 316.5, and 320.1, respectively, whereas the TyG-BMI index was not non-linearly associated with 30-day all-cause mortality. The results of Cox proportional hazard regression analysis are consistent with those of RCS analysis.

Conclusion

U-shaped relationships are existed between the TyG-BMI index and 90-, 180-, and 365-day all-cause mortality in critically ill patients with AMI, but not 30-day all-cause mortality. The TyG-BMI index can be used as an effective index for early prevention of critically ill patients with AMI.

Association of glycemic gap with stroke recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Glycemic gap, as a novel index of acute glycemic excursion, is associated with poor prognosis of different diseases. This study aimed to explore the association of the glycemic gap with long-term stroke recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke.

METHODS

This study included patients with ischemic stroke from the Nanjing Stroke Registry Program. The glycemic gap was calculated by subtracting the estimated average blood glucose from the blood glucose at admission. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to explore the association between the glycemic gap and the risk of stroke recurrence. The Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was used to estimate the effects of the glycemic gap on stroke recurrence stratified by diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

Among 2734 enrolled patients, 381 (13.9%) patients experienced stroke recurrence during a median follow-up of 3.02 years. In multivariate analysis, glycemic gap (high group vs. median group) was associated with significantly increased risk for stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.488; 95% confidence interval, 1.140-1.942; p = .003) and had varying effects on stroke recurrence depending on atrial fibrillation. The restricted cubic spline curve showed a U-shaped relationship between the glycemic gap and stroke recurrence (p = .046 for nonlinearity).

CONCLUSION

Our study found that the glycemic gap was significantly associated with stroke recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke. The glycemic gap was consistently associated with stroke recurrence across subgroups and had varying effects depending on atrial fibrillation.

Metabolic Syndrome and Atrial Fibrillation: Different Entities or Combined Disorders

Obesity, hypertension, insulin resistance, and dyslipidemia are all clusters of an entity called "Metabolic Syndrome". The global trends of this syndrome's incidence/prevalence continue to increase reciprocally, converting it into a massive epidemic problem in the medical community. Observing the risk factors of atrial fibrillation, a medical condition that is also converted to a scourge, almost all parts of the metabolic syndrome are encountered. In addition, several studies demonstrated a robust correlation between metabolic syndrome and the occurrence of atrial fibrillation. For atrial fibrillation to develop, a combination of the appropriate substrate and a trigger point is necessary. The metabolic syndrome affects the left atrium in a multifactorial way, leading to atrial remodeling, thus providing both the substrate and provoking the trigger needed, which possibly plays a substantial role in the progression of atrial fibrillation. Due to the remodeling, treatment of atrial fibrillation may culminate in pernicious sequelae, such as repeated catheter ablation procedures. A holistic approach of the patient, with simultaneous treatment of both entities, is suggested in order to ensure better outcomes for the patients.

Dysglycemia and arrhythmias

Disorders in glucose metabolism can be divided into three separate but interrelated domains, namely hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and glycemic variability. Intensive glycemic control in patients with diabetes might increase the risk of hypoglycemic incidents and glucose fluctuations. These three dysglycemic states occur not only amongst patients with diabetes, but are frequently present in other clinical settings, such as during critically ill. A growing body of evidence has focused on the relationships between these dysglycemic domains with cardiac arrhythmias, including supraventricular arrhythmias (primarily atrial fibrillation), ventricular arrhythmias (malignant ventricular arrhythmias and QT interval prolongation), and bradyarrhythmias (bradycardia and heart block). Different mechanisms by which these dysglycemic states might provoke cardiac arr-hythmias have been identified in experimental studies. A customized glycemic control strategy to minimize the risk of hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia and glucose variability is of the utmost importance in order to mitigate the risk of cardiac arrhythmias.

Association of hypoglycaemia with the risks of arrhythmia and mortality in individuals with diabetes - a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Hypoglycaemia has been linked to an increased risk of cardiac arrhythmias by causing autonomic and metabolic alterations, which may be associated with detrimental outcomes in individuals with diabetes(IWD), such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and mortality, especially in multimorbid or frail people. However, such relationships in this population have not been thoroughly investigated. For this reason, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

Relevant papers published on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Knowledge, Scopus, and CINHAL complete from inception to December 22, 2022 were routinely searched without regard for language. All of the selected articles included odds ratio, hazard ratio, or relative risk statistics, as well as data for estimating the connection of hypoglycaemia with cardiac arrhythmia, CVD-induced death, or total death in IWD. Regardless of the heterogeneity assessed by the I2 statistic, pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using random-effects models.

Results

After deleting duplicates and closely evaluating all screened citations, we chose 60 studies with totally 5,960,224 participants for this analysis. Fourteen studies were included in the arrhythmia risk analysis, and 50 in the analysis of all-cause mortality. Hypoglycaemic patients had significantly higher risks of arrhythmia occurrence (RR 1.42, 95%CI 1.21-1.68), CVD-induced death (RR 1.59, 95% CI 1.24-2.04), and all-cause mortality (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.49-1.90) compared to euglycaemic patients with significant heterogeneity.

Conclusion

Hypoglycaemic individuals are more susceptible to develop cardiac arrhythmias and die, but evidence of potential causal linkages beyond statistical associations must await proof by additional specifically well planned research that controls for all potential remaining confounding factors.

Glycemic variability and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis

Background

Glycemic variability (GV) has been associated with vascular complications in patients with diabetes. However, the relationship between GV and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains not fully determined. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the above association.

Methods

Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Wanfang, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure were searched for longitudinal follow-up studies comparing the incidence of AF between patients with higher versus lower GV. A random-effects model incorporating the potential heterogeneity was used to pool the results.

Results

Nine cohort studies with 6,877,661 participants were included, and 36,784 (0.53%) participants developed AF during follow-up. Pooled results showed that a high GV was associated with an increased risk of AF (risk ratio [RR]: 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11 to 1.30, p < 0.001, I² = 20%). Subgroup analyses suggested consistent association between GV and AF in prospective (RR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.59, p = 0.01) and retrospective studies (RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.29, p = 0.002), in diabetic (RR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.50, p = 0.03) and non-diabetic subjects (RR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.28, p = 0.05), in studies with short-term (RR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.40, p < 0.001) and long-term GV (RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.34, p = 0.006), and in studies with different quality scores (p for subgroup difference all > 0.05).

Conclusion

A high GV may predict an increased risk of AF in adult population.

U-shaped association between the triglyceride-glucose index and atrial fibrillation incidence in a general population without known cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE

The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index has been shown to be a new alternative measure for insulin resistance. However, no study has attempted to investigate the association of the TyG index with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population without known cardiovascular diseases.

METHODS

Individuals without known cardiovascular diseases (heart failure, coronary heart disease, or stroke) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort were recruited. The baseline TyG index was calculated as the Ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The association between the baseline TyG index and incident AF was examined using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of 11,851 participants, the mean age was 54.0 years; 6586 (55.6%) were female. During a median follow-up of 24.26 years, 1925 incidents of AF cases (0.78/per 100 person-years) occurred. An increased AF incidence with a graded TyG index was found by Kaplan‒Meier curves (P < 0.001). In multivariable-adjusted analysis, both < 8.80 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02, 1.29) and > 9.20 levels (aHR 1.18, 95% CI 1.03, 1.37) of the TyG index were associated with an increased risk of AF compared with the middle TyG index category (8.80-9.20). The exposure-effect analysis confirmed the U-shaped association between the TyG index and AF incidence (P = 0.041). Further sex-specific analysis showed that a U-shaped association between the TyG index and incident AF still existed in females but not in males.

CONCLUSIONS

A U-shaped association between the TyG index and AF incidence is observed in Americans without known cardiovascular diseases. Female sex may be a modifier in the association between the TyG index and AF incidence.

Diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation-from pathophysiology to treatment

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a leading risk factor for cardiovascular complications around the globe and one of the most common medical conditions. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common supraventricular arrhythmia, with a rapidly increasing prevalence. T2DM has been closely associated with the risk of AF development, identified as an independent risk factor. Regarding cardio-vascular complications, both AF and T2DM have been linked with high mortality. The underlying pathophysiology has not been fully determined yet; however, it is multifactorial, including structural, electrical, and autonomic pathways. Novel therapies include pharmaceutical agents in sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, as well as antiarrhythmic strategies, such as cardioversion and ablation. Of interest, glucose-lowering therapies may affect the prevalence of AF. This review presents the current evidence regarding the connection between the two entities, the pathophysiological pathways that link them, and the therapeutic options that exist.

The complex interplay between diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation

INTRODUCTION

: A growing body of evidence suggests that diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with an increased risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and contributes to suboptimal arrhythmia control and poor prognosis in patients with AF. The high prevalence of AF among patients with DM is primarily attributed to common risk factors, shared pathophysiological mechanisms, and associated atrial remodeling and autonomic dysfunction.

AREAS COVERED

: This comprehensive review covers the current data on the role of DM in the development and prognosis of AF. In addition, we review the impact of anti-DM medications on AF prevention and the role of anticoagulation in patients with coexisting DM and AF.

EXPERT OPINION

: DM is independently associated with new-onset AF, and the coexistence of these two conditions contributes to poor outcomes, from reduced quality of life to increased risks of thromboembolic events, heart failure, and mortality. Despite this strong link, the current evidence is insufficient to recommend routine screening for AF in patients with DM. Although some observations exist on preventing AF with anti-DM medications, randomized controlled trials are warranted to explore the proposed benefits of novel anti-DM medicines in reducing the risk of incident AF.

A New Hope: Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibition to Prevent Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial arrhythmias are common in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), and despite recent advances in pharmaceutical and invasive treatments, atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFl) are still associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Clinical trial data imply a protective effect of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) on the occurrence of AF and AFl. This review summarizes the state of knowledge regarding DM-mediated mechanisms responsible for AF genesis and recurrence but also discusses the recent data from experimental studies, published trials and metanalyses.

Severe Hypoglycemia Increases Dementia Risk and Related Mortality: A Nationwide, Population-based Cohort Study

CONTEXT

There are few studies focused on the relationship between hypoglycemia and new-onset dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes and no study regarding mortality of dementia after hypoglycemia.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the effect of severe hypoglycemia on dementia subtypes and its relation to overall mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We evaluated incident dementia, including Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia, among health checkup participants aged 40 years or older in the National Health Insurance System in Korea from January 2009 to December 2015. Episodes of severe hypoglycemia were examined for 3 years before the date of the health checkup.

RESULTS

Among 2 032 689 participants (1 172 271 men, 860 418 women), 14 443 (0.7%) experienced severe hypoglycemia, during a mean follow-up period of 6.9 ± 1.7 years. Individuals in the severe hypoglycemia group were more likely to be diagnosed with dementia compared to individuals without severe hypoglycemia (23.3% vs 7.3%; P < .001) and the overall incidence of Alzheimer disease was higher than vascular dementia. Dementia risk rose with increasing number of severe hypoglycemic episodes (1 episode [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.54; 95% CI, 1.48-1.60], 2 or more episodes [HR = 1.80; 95% CI, 1.66-1.94]). Overall mortality was higher in participants with dementia, but without severe hypoglycemia (HR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.96-2.10) and severe hypoglycemia, but without dementia (HR = 4.24; 95% CI, 4.29-4.40), and risk of death was highest in those with both severe hypoglycemia and dementia (HR = 5.08; 95% CI, 4.83-5.35).

CONCLUSION

Severe hypoglycemia is associated with dementia, especially Alzheimer disease and mortality; together, they have an additive effect on overall mortality.

Analysis of Severe Hypoglycemia Among Adults With Type 2 Diabetes and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

IMPORTANCE

Previous studies have indicated that liver cirrhosis is associated with hypoglycemia, but there have been no studies investigating the association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and hypoglycemia in noncirrhotic populations with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the association of NAFLD with severe hypoglycemia among patients with type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study using the National Health Insurance System of South Korea included individuals aged 20 years or older who had undergone a medical health examination between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2012, and were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Participants were followed up until December 31, 2015. Data analyses were performed between January 1, 2019, and February 2, 2021.

EXPOSURES

The baseline fatty liver index (FLI) was used as a surrogate marker for NAFLD.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The outcome of interest, severe hypoglycemia, was measured using hospital admission and emergency department visit records with a primary diagnosis of hypoglycemia.

RESULTS

Among 1 946 581 individuals with type 2 diabetes, 1 125 187 (57.8%) were male. During a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.2 (4.1-6.1) years, 45 135 (2.3%) experienced 1 or more severe hypoglycemia events. Participants with severe hypoglycemia, vs those without severe hypoglycemia, were older (mean [SD] age, 67.9 [9.9] years vs 57.2 [12.3] years; P < .001) and had lower mean (SD) body mass index (24.2 [3.43] vs 25.1 [3.4]; P < .001). Patients with NAFLD tended to have less severe hypoglycemia without consideration of obesity status. However, after adjustment of multiple clinical covariates, including body mass index, there was a J-shaped association between FLI and severe hypoglycemia (5th decile: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.90; 9th decile: aHR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96-1.08; 10th decile: aHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.22-1.37), and the estimated risk of hypoglycemia was higher in participants with NAFLD (aHR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.22-1.30). The association was more prominent in female participants (aHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.23-1.36) and those with underweight (aHR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.02-2.88).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, NAFLD was associated with a higher risk of severe hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes independent of obesity status. Presence of NAFLD should be considered when evaluating vulnerability to hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Long-term morbidity and mortality in patients diagnosed with an insulinoma

OBJECTIVE

Insulinomas are rare functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours. As previous data on the long-term prognosis of insulinoma patients are scarce, we studied the morbidity and mortality in the Finnish insulinoma cohort.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Incidence of endocrine, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and psychiatric disorders, and cancers was compared in all the patients diagnosed with an insulinoma in Finland during 1980-2010 (n = 79, including two patients with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 syndrome), vs 316 matched controls, using the Mantel-Haenszel method. Overall survival was analysed with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

The median length of follow-up was 10.7 years for the patients and 12.2 years for the controls. The long-term incidence of atrial fibrillation (rate ratio (RR): 2.07 (95% CI: 1.02-4.22)), intestinal obstruction (18.65 (2.09-166.86)), and possibly breast (4.46 (1.29-15.39) and kidney cancers (RR not applicable) was increased among insulinoma patients vs controls, P < 0.05 for all comparisons. Endocrine disorders and pancreatic diseases were more frequent in the patients during the first year after insulinoma diagnosis, but not later on. The survival of patients with a non-metastatic insulinoma (n = 70) was similar to that of controls, but for patients with distant metastases (n = 9), the survival was significantly impaired (median 3.4 years).

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term prognosis of patients with a non-metastatic insulinoma is similar to the general population, except for an increased incidence of atrial fibrillation, intestinal obstruction, and possibly breast and kidney cancers. These results need to be confirmed in future studies. Metastatic insulinomas entail a markedly decreased survival.

Significant abnormal glycemic variability increased the risk for arrhythmias in elderly type 2 diabetic patients

BACKGROUND

Little is known about whether the influence of glycemic variability on arrhythmia is related to age in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Therefore, we aimed to compare the association between glycemic variability and arrhythmia in middle-aged and elderly T2DM patients.

METHODS

A total of 107 patients were divided into two groups: elderly diabetes mellitus group (EDM, n = 73) and middle-aged diabetes mellitus group (MDM, n = 34). The main clinical data, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and dynamic ECG reports were collected. The parameters including standard deviation of blood glucose (SDBG), largest amplitude of glycemic excursions (LAGE), mean amplitude of glycemic excursions (MAGE), absolute means of daily differences (MODD), time in range (TIR), time below range (TBR), time above range (TAR), coefficient of variation (CV) were tested for glycemic variability evaluation.

RESULTS

In terms of blood glucose fluctuations, MAGE (5.77 ± 2.16 mmol/L vs 4.63 ± 1.89 mmol/L, P = 0.026), SDBG (2.39 ± 1.00 mmol/L vs 2.00 ± 0.82 mmol/L, P = 0.048), LAGE (9.53 ± 3.37 mmol/L vs 7.84 ± 2.64 mmol/L, P = 0.011) was significantly higher in EDM group than those of MDM group. The incidences of atrial premature beat, couplets of atrial premature beat, atrial tachycardia and ventricular premature beat were significantly higher in EDM group compared with the MDM group (all P < 0.05). Among patients with hypoglycemia events, the incidences of atrial premature beat, couplets of atrial premature beat, atrial tachycardia and ventricular premature beat (all P < 0.05) were significantly higher in the EDM group than those in the MDM group. In EDM group, TIR was negatively correlated with atrial tachycardia in the MAGE1 layer and with atrial tachycardia and ventricular premature beat in the MAGE2 layer, TBR was significantly positively correlated with atrial tachycardia in the MAGE2 layer (all P < 0.05). In MDM group, TAR was positively correlated with ventricular premature beat and atrial tachycardia in the MAGE2 layer (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrated the elderly patients had greater glycemic variability and were more prone to arrhythmias. Therefore, active control of blood glucose fluctuation in elderly patients will help to reduce the risk of severe arrhythmia.

Hypoglycaemia and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Patients with Diabetes

Hypoglycaemia represents an important side effect of insulin therapy and insulin secretagogues. It can occur in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. Also, some associations between hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular (CV) risk have been reported. Several mechanisms may be involved, including the sympathoadrenal system, hypokalaemia, endothelial dysfunction, coagulation, platelets, inflammation, atherothrombosis and impaired autonomic cardiac reflexes. This narrative review discusses the associations of hypoglycaemia with CV diseases, including coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiac arrhythmias, stroke, carotid disease and peripheral artery disease (PAD), as well as with dementia. Severe hypoglycaemia has been related to CHD, CV and all-cause mortality. Furthermore, there is evidence supporting an association between hypoglycaemia and cardiac arrhythmias, potentially predisposing to sudden death. The data linking hypoglycaemia with stroke, carotid disease and PAD is limited. Several factors may affect the hypoglycaemia-CV relationships, such as the definition of hypoglycaemia, patient characteristics, co-morbidities (including chronic kidney disease) and antidiabetic drug therapy. However, the association between hypoglycaemia and dementia is bilateral. Both the disorders are more common in the elderly; thus, glycaemic goals should be carefully selected in older patients. Further research is needed to elucidate the impact of hypoglycaemia on CV disease.

Severe hypoglycemia as a preventable risk factor for cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Glucose-lowering medication and lifestyle modification are essential for optimal glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, glucose-lowering agents, particularly insulin and insulin secretagogues, may cause hypoglycemia, which has multiple negative effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system and may cause death. Previous studies using institutional data from the Korean Nationwide Health Insurance database have consistently found a causal relationship between severe hypoglycemia and CV outcomes and mortality. Screening for high-risk patients, appropriate management, and intensive individualized education are the most effective measures and essential for the prevention of harmful hypoglycemic events. Based on identified risk factors that predict severe hypoglycemia, we developed an 1-year risk prediction model for severe hypoglycemia that can be used in clinical settings. In this review, we describe the current understanding of severe hypoglycemia and the clinical implications in patients with T2DM. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of intensive individualized education for high-risk patients and the risk prediction model to reduce severe hypoglycemia.

Effect of antidiabetic drugs on the risk of atrial fibrillation: mechanistic insights from clinical evidence and translational studies

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), which is the most common sustained arrhythmia and is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Advanced glycation end product and its receptor activation, cardiac energy dysmetabolism, structural and electrical remodeling, and autonomic dysfunction are implicated in AF pathophysiology in diabetic hearts. Antidiabetic drugs have been demonstrated to possess therapeutic potential for AF. However, clinical investigations of AF in patients with DM have been scant and inconclusive. This article provides a comprehensive review of research findings on the association between DM and AF and critically analyzes the effect of different pharmacological classes of antidiabetic drugs on AF.

Diabetes and Endocrine Disorders (Hyperthyroidism/Hypothyroidism) as Risk Factors for Atrial Fibrillation

Risk factors including cardiometabolic and endocrine disorders have a significant impact on atrial remodeling causing atrial fibrillation (AF). Diabetes mellitus and hyperthyroidism are strong independent risk factors for AF and worsen outcomes of rhythm control strategies. An early diagnosis and intervention for these risk factors combined with rhythm control strategies may improve the overall cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge about the AF risk factors diabetes mellitus and thyroid disease, and discusses the impact of the modification of these risk factors on primary and secondary prevention of AF.

Circadian Pattern of Acute Myocardial Infarction and Atrial Fibrillation in a Mediterranean Country: A study in Diabetic Patients

Background and objectives: The circadian pattern seems to play a crucial role in cardiovascular events and arrhythmias. Diabetes mellitus is a complex metabolic disorder associated with autonomic nervous system alterations and increased risk of microvascular and macrovascular disease. We sought to determine whether acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) follow a circadian pattern in diabetic patients in a Mediterranean country. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 178 diabetic patients (mean age: 67.7) with AMI or AF who were admitted to the coronary care unit. The circadian pattern of AMI and AF was identified in the 24-h period (divided in 3-h and 1-h intervals). Patients were also divided in 3 groups according to age; 40-65 years, 66-79 years and patients older than 80 years. A chi-square goodness-of-fit test was used for the statistical analysis. Results: AMI seems to occur more often in the midnight hours (21:00-23:59) (p < 0.001). Regarding age distribution, patients between 40 and 65 years were more likely to experience an AMI compared to other age groups (p < 0.001). Autonomic alterations, working habits, and social reasons might contribute to this phenomenon. AF in diabetic patients occurs more frequently at noon (12:00-14:59) (p = 0.019). Conclusions: Diabetic patients with AMI and AF seem to follow a specific circadian pattern in a Mediterranean country, with AMI occurring most often at midnight hours and AF mostly at noon. Autonomic dysfunction, glycemic fluctuations, intense anti-diabetic treatment before lunch, and patterns of insulin secretion and resistance may explain this pattern. More studies are needed to elucidate the circadian pattern of AMI and AF in diabetic patients to contribute to the development of new therapeutic approaches in this setting.

Association Between Intra-Hospital Uncontrolled Glycemia and Health Outcomes in Patients with Diabetes: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

BACKGROUND

Many people are still getting affected by uncontrolled glycemic events during hospital admission, which encompasses hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and high glycemic variability.

INTRODUCTION

Primary studies have shown an association of glycemic dysregulation with increased length of hospital stay and mortality among overall patients, however, there is no systematic review of current evidence on the association between uncontrolled in-hospital glycemia in patients with diabetes and health outcomes. This study aimed to systematically review the current evidence on the association between uncontrolled in-hospital glycemia in patients with diabetes and health outcomes.

METHODS

The association between glycemic dysregulation and health outcomes for inpatients with diabetes was systematically reviewed. PubMed, Embase, and LILACS databases were searched. Two independent reviewers were involved in each of the following steps: screening titles, abstracts, and fulltexts; assessing the methodological quality; and extracting data from included reviews. Descriptive analysis method was used.

RESULTS

Seven cohort studies were included, and only two had a prospective design, consisting of 7,174 hospitalized patients with diabetes. In-hospital occurrence of hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and glycemic variability were assessed, and outcomes were mortality, infections, renal complications, and adverse events. Among the exposure and outcomes, an association was observed between severe hypoglycemia and mortality, hyperglycemia and infection, and hyperglycemia and adverse events.

CONCLUSION

In-hospital uncontrolled glycemia in patients with diabetes is associated with poor health outcomes. More studies should be conducted for proper investigation because diabetes is a complex condition. Effects of glycemic dysregulation should be investigated on the basis of overall health of a patient instead from only organ-target perspective, which makes the investigation difficult.

Association of severe hypoglycemia with all-cause mortality and complication risks among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in China

AIMS

To investigate the association of severe hypoglycemia (SH) with all-cause mortality and complication risks among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

Cohort study and nested case-control studies were conducted based on medical insurance database 2008-2015. The incidence of outcomes or the exposure of previous SH was compared among matched patients, respectively. The association between SH and outcomes was investigated and validated by different models.

RESULTS

Among cohort study participants (mean age of 59.0 ± 11.2 years), SH was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.80, P < 0.001) and transient ischemic attacks (TIA, HR = 1.51, P < 0.001), while no association was observed between SH and complications including myocardial infarction (MI), angina, arrhythmia and stroke. Similarly, SH was associated with about doubled all-cause mortality (OR = 1.76, P < 0.001) and TIA (OR = 2.00, P < 0.001), but not associated with risk of MI or stroke in nested case-control studies.

CONCLUSIONS

In Chinese patients with T2DM, SH is associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and TIA, but no significant differences were found regard to the other examined complication risks, which need to be further explored in future studies.

Associations of general obesity and central obesity with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in a Korean population: A national population-based cohort study

Numerous previous studies have shown an association between general obesity and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, relatively few reports on the association of central obesity and HCC are available in Asian populations. Therefore, we investigated the association between WC representing central obesity and the risk of HCC in addition to BMI representing general obesity and the risk of HCC in Korea. A total of 10 505 818 participants who received the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) health checkups in 2009 were screened for study eligibility, and 26 979 cases of HCC occurred during the 7.3 years of mean follow-up. General obesity increased the risk of HCC with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.14 (95% CI, 1.11-1.18) for BMI 25.0-<30.0 kg/m² and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.43-1.61) for BMI ≥30 kg/m² compared to those whose BMI is within the normal range. Central obesity was also associated with a higher risk of HCC. For the participants with a WC ≥105 cm in men and WC ≥100 cm in women, the risk of HCC was higher than that of the reference group (HR = 1.69, 95% CI, 1.54-1.85). The HRs were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.07-1.19) for nonobese participants with central obesity, and 1.34 (95% CI, 1.30-1.38) for obese participants with central obesity compared to those without both conditions. Our findings suggest that the risk of HCC increases even more when general obesity is combined with central obesity. Moreover, central obesity is associated with the risk of HCC, regardless of general obesity.

Atrial Fibrillation and Diabetes Mellitus: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Diabetes mellitus is one of the most common chronic medical conditions, and is a risk factor for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). The presence of diabetes in patients with AF is associated with increased symptom burden and increased cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. The pathophysiology of diabetes-related AF is not fully understood, but is related to structural, electrical, electromechanical, and autonomic remodeling. This paper reviews the complex interaction between diabetes and AF, and explores its effect on the prevention and treatment of AF.

Effect of Dapagliflozin on Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background:

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) are associated with both diabetes mellitus and its related comorbidities, including hypertension, obesity, and heart failure (HF). SGLT2 (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2) inhibitors have been shown to lower blood pressure, reduce weight, have salutary effects on left ventricular remodeling, and reduce hospitalization for HF and cardiovascular death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. We therefore investigated whether SGLT2 inhibitors could also reduce the risk of AF/AFL.

Methods:

DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events–Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58) studied the efficacy and safety of the SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin versus placebo in 17 160 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and either multiple risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (n=10 186) or known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (n=6974). We explored the effect of dapagliflozin on the first and total number of AF/AFL events in patients with (n=1116) and without prevalent AF/AFL using Cox and negative binomial models, respectively. AF/AFL events were identified by search of the safety database using MedDRA preferred terms (“atrial fibrillation,” “atrial flutter”).

Results:

Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of AF/AFL events by 19% (264 versus 325 events; 7.8 versus 9.6 events per 1000 patient-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.68–0.95]; P =0.009). The reduction in AF/AFL events was consistent regardless of presence or absence of a history of AF/AFL at baseline (previous AF/AFL: HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.58–1.09]; no AF/AFL: HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.67–0.98]; P for interaction 0.89). Similarly, presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.66–1.04]) versus multiple risk factors (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.62–0.99]; P for interaction 0.72) or a history of HF (HF: HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.55–1.11]; No HF: HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.68–0.97]; P for interaction 0.88) did not modify the reduction in AF/AFL events observed with dapagliflozin. Moreover, there was no effect modification by sex, history of ischemic stroke, glycated hemoglobin A 1c , body mass index, blood pressure, or estimated glomerular filtration rate (all P for interaction >0.20). Dapagliflozin also reduced the total number (first and recurrent) of AF/AFL events (337 versus 432; incidence rate ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.64–0.92]; P =0.005).

Conclusions:

Dapagliflozin decreased the incidence of reported episodes of AF/AFL adverse events in high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This effect was consistent regardless of the patient’s previous history of AF, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, or HF.

Registration:

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT01730534.

Hypoglycaemic episodes increase the risk of ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac arrest in patients with type 2 diabetes-A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The impact of hypoglycaemic episode (HE) on the risk of ventricular arrhythmia (VA) and sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) remains unclear. We hypothesized that HE increases the risk of both VA and SCA and that glucose-lowering agents causing HE also increase the risk of VA/SCA in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

Patients aged 20 years or older with newly diagnosed T2D were identified using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database. HE was defined as the presentation of hypoglycaemic coma or specified/unspecified hypoglycaemia. The control group consisted of T2D patients without HE. The primary outcome was the occurrence of VA (including ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation) and SCA during the defined follow-up periods. A multivariate Cox hazards regression model was used to evaluate the hazard ratio (HR) for VA or SCA.

RESULTS

A total of 54 303 patients were screened, with 1037 patients with HE assigned to the HE group and 4148 frequency-matched patients without HE constituting the control group. During a mean follow-up period of 3.3 ± 2.5 years, 29 VA/SCA events occurred. Compared with the control group, HE group had a higher incidence of VA/SCA (adjusted HR: 2.42, P = .04). Patients who had used insulin for glycaemic control showed an increased risk of VA/SCA compared with patients who did not receive insulin (adjusted HR: 3.05, P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

The HEs in patients with T2D increased the risk of VA/SCA, compared with those who did not experience HEs. Use of insulin also independently increased the risk of VA/SCA.

The association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and esophageal, stomach, or colorectal cancer: National population-based cohort study

We investigated the association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and gastrointestinal tract cancer in the general population. Retrospective data on individuals aged ≥20 years who received healthcare checkups from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009 were analyzed using the National Health Insurance Database in Korea. NAFLD was defined based on the fatty liver index (FLI ≥60). The primary outcome was newly diagnosed esophageal, stomach, or colorectal cancer using ICD-10 codes during follow-up until 31 December 2017. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Among 8,120,674 subjects, 936,159 adults (11.5%) were identified as having NAFLD. Their mean age was 46.7 ± 14.1 years, and 52.1% were male. During the follow-up period (7.2 years), 3,792 esophageal, 57,292 stomach and 68,769 colorectal cancer cases were identified. FLI ≥60 was significantly associated with the development of esophageal (HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.88-2.35), stomach (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.14-1.22), and colon cancer (HR, 1.23, 95% CI 1.19-1.26) after multivariable adjustment. Compared to subjects without NAFLD, all-cause mortality in patients with esophageal (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.28-1.67), stomach (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.18-1.34), and colorectal cancer (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.10-1.22) was significantly increased in subjects with NAFLD (FLI ≥60). NAFLD defined using FLI was a good predictive indicator for GI tract malignancy and all-cause mortality in the general population. Subjects with NAFLD are needed for active surveillance of esophageal, stomach, and colorectal cancers.

Porcine models for studying complications and organ crosstalk in diabetes mellitus

The worldwide prevalence of diabetes mellitus and obesity is rapidly increasing not only in adults but also in children and adolescents. Diabetes is associated with macrovascular complications increasing the risk for cardiovascular disease and stroke, as well as microvascular complications leading to diabetic nephropathy, retinopathy and neuropathy. Animal models are essential for studying disease mechanisms and for developing and testing diagnostic procedures and therapeutic strategies. Rodent models are most widely used but have limitations in translational research. Porcine models have the potential to bridge the gap between basic studies and clinical trials in human patients. This article provides an overview of concepts for the development of porcine models for diabetes and obesity research, with a focus on genetically engineered models. Diabetes-associated ocular, cardiovascular and renal alterations observed in diabetic pig models are summarized and their similarities with complications in diabetic patients are discussed. Systematic multi-organ biobanking of porcine models of diabetes and obesity and molecular profiling of representative tissue samples on different levels, e.g., on the transcriptome, proteome, or metabolome level, is proposed as a strategy for discovering tissue-specific pathomechanisms and their molecular key drivers using systems biology tools. This is exemplified by a recent study providing multi-omics insights into functional changes of the liver in a transgenic pig model for insulin-deficient diabetes mellitus. Collectively, these approaches will provide a better understanding of organ crosstalk in diabetes mellitus and eventually reveal new molecular targets for the prevention, early diagnosis and treatment of diabetes mellitus and its associated complications.

Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Relation to the Time Course of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Fasting Blood Glucose

The relation of progression of type 2 diabetes and detailed fasting glucose level with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is not well known. A total of 6,199,629 subjects not diagnosed with AF who underwent health check-up in 2009 were included from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Risk of AF was compared among subjects with normal fasting glucose (NFG), subjects with impaired fasting glucose (IFG), patients with diabetes duration <5 years (early diabetes mellitus [DM]), and patients with diabetes duration ≥5 years (late DM). Next, risk of AF stratified by fasting glucose level per 10 mg/dL was assessed. During a mean follow-up of 7.2 years, the risk of AF significantly increased across the time course of type 2 diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.05 for IFG; aHR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.08 for early DM; aHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.11 for late DM). The risk of AF was significantly higher in subjects who progressed to type 2 diabetes in the IFG group. Risk of AF increased with a 10 mg/dL increment of fasting blood glucose (p-for-trend <0.0001). However, there was a U-shape relationship between fasting blood glucose and risk of AF in those who received antidiabetic medication. In conclusion, the risk of AF increased with the time course of type 2 diabetes. However, low blood glucose in antidiabetic medication user was associated with an increased risk of AF.

Pathological Role of Advanced Glycation End Products (AGEs) and their Receptor Axis in Atrial Fibrillation

Accumulating evidence has shown that the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is higher in patients with diabetes, especially those with poor glycemic control or long disease duration. Nonenzymatic glycation of amino acids of proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids has progressed under normal aging process and/or diabetic condition, which could lead to the formation and accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs). AGEs not only alter the tertiary structure and physiological function of macromolecules, but also evoke inflammatory and fibrotic reactions through the interaction of cell surface receptor for AGEs (RAGE), thereby being involved in aging-related disorders. In this paper, we briefly review the association of chronic hyperglycemia and type 1 diabetes with the risk of AF and then discuss the pathological role of AGE-RAGE axis in AF and its thromboembolic complications.

The Association Between Diabetes Mellitus and Atrial Fibrillation: Clinical and Mechanistic Insights

A number of clinical studies have reported that diabetes mellitus (DM) is an independent risk factor for Atrial fibrillation (AF). After adjustment for other known risk factors including age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors, DM remains a significant if modest risk factor for development of AF. The mechanisms underlying the increased susceptibility to AF in DM are incompletely understood, but are thought to involve electrical, structural, and autonomic remodeling in the atria. Electrical remodeling in DM may involve alterations in gap junction function that affect atrial conduction velocity due to changes in expression or localization of connexins. Electrical remodeling can also occur due to changes in atrial action potential morphology in association with changes in ionic currents, such as sodium or potassium currents, that can affect conduction velocity or susceptibility to triggered activity. Structural remodeling in DM results in atrial fibrosis, which can alter conduction patterns and susceptibility to re-entry in the atria. In addition, increases in atrial adipose tissue, especially in Type II DM, can lead to disruptions in atrial conduction velocity or conduction patterns that may affect arrhythmogenesis. Whether the insulin resistance in type II DM activates unique intracellular signaling pathways independent of obesity requires further investigation. In addition, the relationship between incident AF and glycemic control requires further study.

Atrial fibrillation and type 2 diabetes: Prevalence, etiology, pathophysiology and effect of anti-diabetic therapies

New-onset atrial fibrillation (NAF) is increased in the type 2 diabetic patient because of the presence of the metaboli syndrome and increased sympathetic activity. This results in inflammation, endothelial dysfunction and myocardial steatosis which, in turn, lead to atrial fibrosis and dilatation. The end result is the development of structural and electrical atrial remodeling. Drugs that lower insulin resistance, particularly pioglitazone, decrease the incidence of NAF while drugs that, through hypoglycaemia, stimulate the sympathetic nervous system, insulin and secretagogues, increase the incidence of NAF. Currently there is no evidence that GLP-1 agonists, SGLT2 inhibitors and DPP-4 inhibitors either accelerate or decelerate the development of NAF.

Efficacy of Wenxin Keli Plus Amiodarone versus Amiodarone Monotherapy in Treating Recent-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Use of amiodarone (AMIO) in atrial fibrillation (AF) has significant side effects over prolonged periods. Wenxin Keli (WXKL), a Chinese herb extract, has been shown to be effective in atrial-selective inhibiting peak I _Na and hence beneficial in treating atrial arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation. The aim of this randomized controlled trial was to evaluate potential effects of AMIO plus WXKL on conversion rate and time in patients with recent-onset AF.

Methods

A total of 41 patients (71 ± 12 years, 44% male) with recent-onset (<48 h) AF eligible for conversion were randomized to receive either intravenous amiodarone (loading dose 5 mg/kg in 1 hour followed by 50 mg/h; n=21) or amiodarone with same dosage plus oral WXKL 18 g thrice daily (n=20) for 24 hours.

Results

Conversion rate at 24 hours was of no difference between the two groups (75.0% vs. 81.0%, P=0.72); however, conversion time was markedly shorter in the AMIO + WXKL group compared to the AMIO group (291 ± 235 minutes vs. 725 ± 475 minutes, P=0.003). There were no serious adverse events during the study.

Conclusion

Administration of amiodarone plus WXKL for recent-onset AF conversion was safe and effective, with faster sinus rhythm restoration compared with amiodarone alone.

Diabetes and Arrhythmias: Pathophysiology, Mechanisms and Therapeutic Outcomes

The prevalence of diabetes is rapidly increasing and closely associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. While the major cardiovascular complication associated with diabetes is coronary artery disease, it is becoming increasingly apparent that diabetes impacts the electrical conduction system in the heart, resulting in atrial fibrillation, and ventricular arrhythmias. The relationship between diabetes and arrhythmias is complex and multifactorial including autonomic dysfunction, atrial and ventricular remodeling and molecular alterations. This review will provide a comprehensive overview of the link between diabetes and arrhythmias with insight into the common molecular mechanisms, structural alterations and therapeutic outcomes.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for severe hypoglycemia in adult patients with type 2 diabetes: a nationwide population-based cohort study

Purpose

There is a scarcity of long-term prediction models for severe hypoglycemia (SH) in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In this study, a model was developed and validated to predict the risk of SH in adult patients with T2DM.

Patients and methods

Baseline and follow-up data from patients with T2DM who received health evaluations from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010 (n=1,676,885) were analyzed as development (n=1,173,820) and validation (n=503,065) cohorts using the National Health Insurance Database (DB) in Korea. New SH episodes were identified using ICD-10 codes. A Cox proportional hazards regression model and Cox model coefficients were used to derive a risk scoring system, and 14 predictive variables were selected. A risk score nomogram based on the risk prediction model was created to estimate the 1-year risk of SH.

Results

In the development cohort, a total of 5,325 (0.45%) patients experienced SH episodes during the follow-up period. After multivariable adjustment, older age, female sex, current smoker, drinking, low body mass index, lack of exercise, previous SH events, insulin or multiple oral hypoglycemic agent use, presence of hypertension or chronic kidney disease, longer duration of diabetes, low or high glucose level, and high Charlson Comorbidity Index score were found to be significant risk factors for the development of SH and were incorporated into the risk model. The concordance indices were 0.871 (95% confidence interval, 0.863-0.881) in development cohort and 0.866 (95% CI, 0.856-0.879) in the validation cohort. The calibration plot showed a nearly 45° line, which indicates that this model predicts well an absolute SH event.

Conclusion

This 14-variable prediction model for SH events may be a useful tool to identify high-risk patients and guide prevention of SH in adult patients with T2DM.