OARSI-OMERACT definition of relevant radiological progression in hip/knee osteoarthritis

Predictive models of radiographic progression and pain progression in patients with knee osteoarthritis: data from the FNIH OA biomarkers consortium project

OBJECTIVES

The progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA) can be defined as either radiographic progression or pain progression. This study aimed to construct models to predict radiographic progression and pain progression in patients with knee OA.

METHODS

We retrieved data from the FNIH OA Biomarkers Consortium project, a nested case-control study. A total of 600 subjects with mild to moderate OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade of 1, 2, or 3) in one target knee were enrolled. The patients were classified as radiographic progressors (n = 297), non-radiographic progressors (n = 303), pain progressors (n = 297), or non-pain progressors (n = 303) according to the change in the minimum joint space width of the medial compartment and the WOMAC pain score during the follow-up period of 24-48 months. Initially, 376 variables concerning demographics, clinical questionnaires, imaging measurements, and biochemical markers were included. We developed predictive models based on multivariate logistic regression analysis and visualized the models with nomograms. We also tested whether adding changes in predictors from baseline to 24 months would improve the predictive efficacy of the models.

RESULTS

The predictive models of radiographic progression and pain progression consisted of 8 and 10 variables, respectively, with area under curve (AUC) values of 0.77 and 0.76, respectively. Incorporating the change in the WOMAC pain score from baseline to 24 months into the pain progression predictive model significantly improved the predictive effectiveness (AUC = 0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified risk factors for imaging progression and pain progression in patients with knee OA over a 2- to 4-year period, and provided effective predictive models, which could help identify patients at high risk of progression.

Identifying Muscle Function-based Phenotypes Associated With Radiographic Progression of Secondary Hip Osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

The purposes of our study were to (1) identify muscle function-based clinical phenotypes in patients with hip osteoarthritis (OA) and (2) determine the association between those phenotypes and radiographic progression of hip OA.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Clinical biomechanics laboratory of a university.

PARTICIPANTS

Fifty women patients with mild-to-moderate secondary hip OA (N=50) were recruited from the orthopedic department of a single institution.

INTERVENTIONS

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Two-step cluster analyses were performed to classify the patients, using hip flexion, extension, abduction, and external/internal rotation muscle strength (cluster analysis 1); relative hip muscle strength to total hip strength (ie, hip muscle strength balance; cluster analysis 2); and both hip muscle strength and muscle strength balance (cluster analysis 3) as variables. The association between the phenotype and hip OA progression over 12 months (indicated by joint space width [JSW] >0.5 mm) was investigated by logistic regression analyses. Hip joint morphology, hip pain, gait speed, physical activity, Harris hip score, and SF-36 scores were compared between the phenotypes.

RESULTS

Radiographic progression of hip OA was observed in 42% of the patients. The patients were classified into 2 phenotypes in each of the 3 cluster analyses. The solution in cluster analyses 1 and 3 was similar, and high-function and low-function phenotypes were identified; however, no association was found between the phenotypes and hip OA progression. The phenotype 2-1 (high-risk phenotype) extracted in cluster analysis 2, which had relative muscle weakness in hip flexion and internal rotation, was associated with subsequent hip OA progression, even after adjusting for age and minimum JSW at baseline (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 3.60 [1.07-12.05]; P=.039).

CONCLUSION

As preliminary findings, the phenotype based on hip muscle strength balance, rather than hip muscle strength, may be associated with hip OA progression.

Potential surrogate outcomes in individuals at high risk for incident knee osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To study potential surrogate outcomes for osteoarthritis (OA) incidence by evaluating the association of short-term changes in clinical and imaging biomarkers with long-term clinical knee OA incidence.

DESIGN

Middle-aged women with overweight/obesity, but free of knee symptoms were recruited through their general practitioners. At baseline, after 2.5 years, and after 6.5 years, questionnaires, physical examination, radiographs, and Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained. The percentage of knees with a minimal clinically important difference for knee pain severity, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain/stiffness/function, and joint space narrowing, and of those with progression/regression of medial knee alignment, chronic knee pain, radiographic osteophytes, and cartilage defects, bone marrow lesions, osteophytes, and effusion/synovitis on MRI were determined. For each of these potential surrogate outcomes with ≥10% improvement or progression in the population over 2.5 years, the association with incident clinical knee OA, defined using the combined ACR-criteria, after 6.5 years was determined.

RESULTS

Most pre-defined potential surrogate outcomes showed ≥10% change in the population over 2.5 years, but only worsening of TF cartilage defects, worsening of TF osteophytes on MRI, and an increase in pain severity were significantly associated with greater clinical knee OA incidence after 6.5 years. These potential surrogate outcomes had high specificity and negative predictive value (89-91%) and low sensitivity and positive predictive value (20-28%) CONCLUSIONS: Worsening of TF cartilage defects and TF osteophytes on MRI, and increased pain severity could be seen as surrogate outcomes for long-term OA incidence. However, higher positive predictive values seem warranted for the applicability of these factors in future preventive trials.

High tibiofemoral contact and muscle forces during gait are associated with radiographic knee OA progression over 3 years

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to investigate differences in tibiofemoral joint contact forces between individuals with moderate medial OA who exhibit radiographic knee OA progression within 3 years versus those who do not, and to understand the relationship between model-predicted contact forces and net external moments for this population.

METHODS

27 individuals with moderate medial compartment knee OA underwent baseline instrumented gait analysis. OA progressors were defined as those who experienced at least a one grade increase in medial joint space narrowing at three years. An electromyography-driven musculoskeletal model was used to estimate muscle and tibiofemoral contact forces at baseline, which were compared between progressors and non-progressors using t-tests.

RESULTS

Seven individuals experienced radiographic OA progression by 3 years. Progressors walked with significantly higher peaks of medial and total tibiofemoral contact forces, and higher impulse of medial contact forces. Significant and high correlations were found between: first peaks of medial and total contact forces with first peak of the knee adduction moment (R² = 0.74; R² = 0.59); second peaks of medial and total knee contact forces with second peaks of knee adduction and flexion moments (R² = 0.71; R² = 0.68); medial knee contact force impulse with knee adduction moment impulse (R² = 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher tibiofemoral joint contact forces during walking were associated with three-year radiographic knee OA progression based on medial joint space narrowing. These results support the need for strategies that reduce compressive knee contact forces through the reduction of adduction and flexion moments during walking.

A "best-in-class" systemic biomarker predictor of clinically relevant knee osteoarthritis structural and pain progression

We aimed to identify markers in blood (serum) to predict clinically relevant knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression defined as the combination of both joint structure and pain worsening over 48 months. A set of 15 serum proteomic markers corresponding to 13 total proteins reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 73% for distinguishing progressors from nonprogressors in a cohort of 596 individuals with knee OA. Prediction based on these blood markers was far better than traditional prediction based on baseline structural OA and pain severity (59%) or the current "best-in-class" biomarker for predicting OA progression, urinary carboxyl-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type II collagen (58%). The generalizability of the marker set was confirmed in a second cohort of 86 individuals that yielded an AUC of 70% for distinguishing joint structural progressors. Blood is a readily accessible biospecimen whose analysis for these biomarkers could facilitate identification of individuals for clinical trial enrollment and those most in need of treatment.

Relationship of early postoperative perceived leg length discrepancy to the progression of osteoarthritis in the contralateral hip after unilateral total hip arthroplasty—a retrospective cohort study using propensity score matching

[Purpose] This study aimed to identify the relationship between the early postoperative perceived leg length discrepancy after unilateral total hip arthroplasty and the progression of osteoarthritis in the contralateral hip. [Participants and Methods] This was a retrospective cohort study of 65 patients who underwent primary unilateral total hip arthroplasty for bilateral hip osteoarthritis. The minimum joint space width of the contralateral hip was measured preoperatively. The change in minimum joint space width one year postoperatively compared with preoperatively was measured. At three weeks postoperatively, patients were divided into the perceived and non-perceived leg length discrepancy groups using the block test. Patients with a perceived leg length discrepancy of 2 mm or more and less than 2 mm were grouped into the perceived and non-perceived leg length discrepancy groups, respectively. Before and after propensity score matching, the change in minimum joint space width between the two groups from the preoperative period to one year postoperatively was compared. [Results] In the pre-propensity matching sample, there was no significant difference in the change in minimum joint space width between the two groups. In the post-propensity matching sample, the change in minimum joint space width in the perceived leg length discrepancy group was significantly larger than that in the non-perceived leg length discrepancy group. [Conclusion] The early postoperative perceived leg length discrepancy after unilateral total hip arthroplasty may affect the progression of osteoarthritis in the contralateral hip.

Predicted and actual 2-year structural and pain progression in the IMI-APPROACH knee osteoarthritis cohort

OBJECTIVES

The IMI-APPROACH knee osteoarthritis study used machine learning (ML) to predict structural and/or pain progression, expressed by a structural (S) and pain (P) predicted-progression score, to select patients from existing cohorts. This study evaluates the actual 2-year progression within the IMI-APPROACH, in relation to the predicted-progression scores.

METHODS

Actual structural progression was measured using minimum joint space width (minJSW). Actual pain (progression) was evaluated using the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcomes Score (KOOS) pain questionnaire. Progression was presented as actual change (Δ) after 2 years, and as progression over 2 years based on a per patient fitted regression line using 0, 0.5, 1 and 2-year values. Differences in predicted-progression scores between actual progressors and non-progressors were evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) reported. Using Youden's index, optimal cut-offs were chosen to enable evaluation of both predicted-progression scores to identify actual progressors.

RESULTS

Actual structural progressors were initially assigned higher S predicted-progression scores compared with structural non-progressors. Likewise, actual pain progressors were assigned higher P predicted-progression scores compared with pain non-progressors. The AUC-ROC for the S predicted-progression score to identify actual structural progressors was poor (0.612 and 0.599 for Δ and regression minJSW, respectively). The AUC-ROC for the P predicted-progression score to identify actual pain progressors were good (0.817 and 0.830 for Δ and regression KOOS pain, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The S and P predicted-progression scores as provided by the ML models developed and used for the selection of IMI-APPROACH patients were to some degree able to distinguish between actual progressors and non-progressors.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03883568.

Knee biomechanics and contralateral knee osteoarthritis progression after total knee arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

Despite the success rate of Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA), many patients undergo contralateral TKA. It is possible that altered gait mechanics after unilateral TKA play a role in the progression of contralateral OA progression.

RESEARCH QUESTION

The purpose of this study was to identify biomechanical predictors of radiographic OA progression in the contralateral (non-surgical) knee after unilateral (primary/initial) TKA. In addition, this study quantified for patients who had contralateral OA progression.

METHODS

Biomechanical outcomes were collected 6-24 months after unilateral primary TKA and were used to predict changes in contralateral OA severity at follow-up. Participants were divided into "Progressor" and "Non-Progressor" groups based on changes in Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) OA grade and Joint Space Width (JSW) between baseline and follow-up testing sessions. Biomechanical factors during walking were peak knee adduction moment, knee flexion/extension excursions, knee angle at initial foot contact, and peak knee flexion/extension. Multiple independent t-tests were used to examine the magnitude of differences in biomechanical variables between the groups. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between the biomechanical predictors and change in KL scores and JSW.

RESULTS

The mean time between surgery and follow-up x-rays was 8.8 (2.4) years. Of 40 participants, 62.5-78% had contralateral radiographic knee OA progression by follow-up. There were no significant differences in the biomechanical variables between groups. For the regression analysis, none of the biomechanical variables were found to be predictors for contralateral OA progression.

SIGNIFICANCE

Although abnormal biomechanics are known risk factors for primary knee OA, it is possible that the mechanisms that result in OA progression of the contralateral limb are different than primary knee OA progression. Future work should evaluate other objective measures of OA progression and determine if cumulative measures of joint loading are related to OA worsening.

Baseline clinical characteristics of predicted structural and pain progressors in the IMI-APPROACH knee OA cohort

OBJECTIVES

To describe the relations between baseline clinical characteristics of the Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway (IMI-APPROACH) participants and their predicted probabilities for knee osteoarthritis (OA) structural (S) progression and/or pain (P) progression.

METHODS

Baseline clinical characteristics of the IMI-APPROACH participants were used for this study. Radiographs were evaluated according to Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L grade) and Knee Image Digital Analysis. Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) were used to evaluate pain. Predicted progression scores for each individual were determined using machine learning models. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to evaluate correlations between scores for predicted progression and baseline characteristics. T-tests and χ2 tests were used to evaluate differences between participants with high versus low progression scores.

RESULTS

Participants with high S progressions score were found to have statistically significantly less structural damage compared with participants with low S progression scores (minimum Joint Space Width, minJSW 3.56 mm vs 1.63 mm; p<0.001, K&L grade; p=0.028). Participants with high P progression scores had statistically significantly more pain compared with participants with low P progression scores (KOOS pain 51.71 vs 82.11; p<0.001, NRS pain 6.7 vs 2.4; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The baseline minJSW of the IMI-APPROACH participants contradicts the idea that the (predicted) course of knee OA follows a pattern of inertia, where patients who have progressed previously are more likely to display further progression. In contrast, for pain progressors the pattern of inertia seems valid, since participants with high P score already have more pain at baseline compared with participants with a low P score.

Clinical risk factors associated with radiographic osteoarthritis progression among people with knee pain: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to identify modifiable clinical factors associated with radiographic osteoarthritis progression over 1 to 2 years in people with painful medial knee osteoarthritis.

METHODS

A longitudinal study was conducted within a randomised controlled trial, the "Long-term Evaluation of Glucosamine Sulfate" (LEGS study). Recruitment occurred in 2007-2009, with 1- and 2-year follow-up assessments by blinded assessors. Community-dwelling people with chronic knee pain (≥4/10) and medial tibiofemoral narrowing (but retaining >2mm medial joint space width) on radiographs were recruited. From 605 participants, follow-up data were available for 498 (82%, mean [sd] age 60 [8] years). Risk factors evaluated at baseline were pain, physical function, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), statin use, not meeting physical activity guidelines, presence of Heberden's nodes, history of knee surgery/trauma, and manual occupation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted adjusting for age, sex, obesity, high blood pressure, allocation to glucosamine and chondroitin treatment, and baseline structural disease severity (Kellgren and Lawrence grade, joint space width, and varus alignment). Radiographic osteoarthritis progression was defined as joint space narrowing ≥0.5mm over 1 to 2 years (latest follow-up used where available).

RESULTS

Radiographic osteoarthritis progression occurred in 58 participants (12%). Clinical factors independently associated with radiographic progression were the use of NSAIDs, adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.05 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.8), and not meeting physical activity guidelines, OR 2.07 (95% CI 0.9 to 4.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Among people with mild radiographic knee osteoarthritis, people who use NSAIDs and/or do not meet physical activity guidelines have a greater risk of radiographic osteoarthritis progression.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00513422 . This original study trial was registered a priori, on August 8, 2007. The current study hypothesis arose before inspection of the data.

Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI): Past, present and future

We provide a detailed account of the origin and establishment of the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) and celebrate its history from inception to the current day. We discuss the mission, vision and strategic objectives of OARSI and how these have developed and evolved over the last 3 decades. We celebrate the achievements of the society as we approach its 30th birthday, honor the entire presidential line and respectfully pay tribute to the past presidents who are no longer with us. We reflect on the strong foundations of our society, OARSI's efforts to disseminate understanding of the health, disability and economic burdens of osteoarthritis (OA) to policymakers, and the exciting initiatives to make the society inclusive and international. We thank our corporate and industrial sponsors, who have supported us over many years, without whom our annual congresses would not have been possible. We celebrate our longstanding strategic partnership with our publisher, Elsevier, and the successful launch of our new journal Osteoarthritis and Cartilage Open, the most significant new development in our dissemination toolbox. For the first time in the history of the organization, our annual congress was cancelled in April 2020 and the 2021 meeting will be virtual. Despite the numerous challenges posed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the need to adapt quickly to a rapidly changing landscape, we must remain optimistic about the future. We will take advantage of new exciting opportunities to advance our mission and vision to enhance the quality of life of persons with OA.

Quantitative Three-dimensional Assessment of Knee Joint Space Width from Weight-bearing CT

Background Imaging of structural disease in osteoarthritis has traditionally relied on MRI and radiography. Joint space mapping (JSM) can be used to quantitatively map joint space width (JSW) in three dimensions from CT images. Purpose To demonstrate the reproducibility, repeatability, and feasibility of JSM of the knee using weight-bearing CT images. Materials and Methods Two convenience samples of weight-bearing CT images of left and right knees with radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence grades (KLGs) less than or equal to 2 were acquired from 2014 to 2018 and were analyzed retrospectively with JSM to deliver three-dimensional JSW maps. For reproducibility, images of three sets of knees were used for novice training, and then the JSM output was compared against an expert's assessment. JSM was also performed on 2-week follow-up images in the second cohort, yielding three-dimensional JSW difference maps for repeatability. Statistical parametric mapping was performed on all knee imaging data (KLG, 0-4) to show the feasibility of a surface-based analysis in three dimensions. Results Reproducibility (in 20 individuals; mean age, 58 years ± 7 [standard deviation]; mean body mass index, 28 kg/m² ± 6; 14 women) and repeatability (in nine individuals; mean age, 53 years ± 6; mean body mass index, 26 kg/m² ± 4; seven women) reached their lowest performance at a smallest detectable difference less than ±0.1 mm in the central medial tibiofemoral joint space for individuals without radiographically demonstrated disease. The average root mean square coefficient of variation was less than 5% across all groups. Statistical parametric mapping (33 individuals; mean age, 57 years ± 7; mean body mass index, 27 kg/m² ± 6; 23 women) showed that the central-to-posterior medial joint space was significantly narrower by 0.5 mm for each incremental increase in the KLG (threshold P < .05). One knee (KLG, 2) demonstrated a baseline versus 24-month change in its three-dimensional JSW distribution that was beyond the smallest detectable difference across the lateral joint space. Conclusion Joint space mapping of the knee using weight-bearing CT images is feasible, demonstrating a relationship between the three-dimensional joint space width distribution and structural joint disease. It is reliably learned by novice users, can be personalized for disease phenotypes, and can be used to achieve a smallest detectable difference that is at least 50% smaller than that reported to be achieved at the highest performance level in radiography. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Roemer in this issue.

Cross-cultural adaptation, reliability and validity of the Fremantle Knee Awareness Questionnaire in Italian subjects with painful knee osteoarthritis

Background and aim

Growing attention is being given to utilising physical function measures to better understand and manage knee osteoarthritis (OA). The Fremantle Knee Awareness Questionnaire (FreKAQ), a self-reported measure of body-perception specific to the knee, has never been validated in Italian patients. The aims of this study were to culturally adapt and validate the Italian version of the FreKAQ (FreKAQ-I), to allow for its use with Italian-speaking patients with painful knee OA.

Methods

The FreKAQ-I was developed by means of forward–backward translation, a final review by an expert committee and a test of the pre-final version to evaluate its comprehensibility. The psychometric testing included: internal structural validity by Rasch analysis; construct validity by assessing hypotheses of FreKAQ correlations with the knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS), a pain intensity numerical rating scale (PI-NRS), the pain catastrophising scale (PCS), and the Hospital anxiety and depression score (HADS) (Pearson’s correlations); known-group validity by evaluating the ability of FreKAQ scores to discriminate between two groups of participants with different clinical profiles (Mann–Whitney U test); reliability by internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha) and test–retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC_2.1); and measurement error by calculating the minimum detectable change (MDC).

Results

It took one month to develop a consensus-based version of the FreKAQ-I. The questionnaire was administered to 102 subjects with painful knee OA and was well accepted. Internal structural validity confirmed the substantial unidimensionality of the FreKAQ-I: variance explained was 53.3%, the unexplained variance in the first contrast showed an eigenvalue of 1.8, and no local dependence was detected. Construct validity was good as all of the hypotheses were met; correlations: KOOS (rho = 0.38–0.51), PI-NRS (rho = 0.35–0.37), PCS (rho = 0.47) and HADS (Anxiety rho = 0.36; Depression rho = 0.43). Regarding known-groups validity, FreKAQ scores were significantly different between groups of participants demonstrating high and low levels of pain intensity, pain catastrophising, anxiety, depression and the four KOOS subscales (p ≤ 0.004). Internal consistency was acceptable (α = 0.74) and test–retest reliability was excellent (ICC = 0.92, CI 0.87–0.94). The MDC₉₅ was 5.22 scale points.

Conclusion

The FreKAQ-I is unidimensional, reliable and valid in Italian patients with painful knee OA. Its use is recommended for clinical and research purposes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12955-021-01754-4.

Association between current medication use and progression of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Objective

Use of specific medications may accelerate the progression of radiographic knee OA (RKOA). Our aim was to examine the effect of medication use on the progression of RKOA.

Methods

We used longitudinal data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), an observational study of risk factors for knee OA. At baseline, we selected participants with RKOA (Kellgren–Lawrence grade ≥2) and excluded those with a history of knee-related injury/surgery and other musculoskeletal disorders. Current medication use (use/non-use in the previous 30 days) and radiographic medial minimum joint space width (mJSW) data were available at baseline and annually up to 96 months follow-up. We used random effects, panel regression to assess the association between current medication use (non-users as reference group) and change in mJSW.

Results

Of 2054 eligible participants, 2003 participants with baseline mJSW data were included [55.7% female, mean age 63.3 (s.d. 8.98) years]. Of seven medication classes, at baseline NSAIDs were the most frequently used analgesia (14.7%), anti-histamine (10.4%) use was frequent and the following comorbidity medications were used most frequently: statins (27.4%), anti-hypertensives (up to 15.0%), anti-depressant/anxiolytics/psychotropics (14.0%), osteoporosis-related medication (10.9%) and diabetes-related medication (6.9%). Compared with current non-users, current use of NSAIDs was associated with a loss of mJSW (b = −0.042, 95% CI −0.08, −0.0004). No other associations were observed.

Conclusions

In current users of NSAIDs, mJSW loss was increased compared with current non-users in participants with RKOA. Clinical trials are required to assess the potential disease-modifying effects of these medications.

Multivariable modeling of biomarker data from the phase 1 Foundation for the NIH Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium

OBJECTIVE

To determine the optimal combination of imaging and biochemical biomarkers to predict knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression.

METHODS

Nested case-control study from the FNIH OA Biomarkers Consortium of participants with Kellgren-Lawrence grade 1-3 and complete biomarker data (n=539 to 550). Cases were knees with radiographic and pain progression between 24-48 months from baseline. Radiographic progression only was assessed in secondary analyses. Biomarkers (baseline and 24-month changes) with p<0.10 in univariate analysis were selected, including MRI (quantitative (Q) cartilage thickness and volume; semi-quantitative (SQ) MRI markers; bone shape and area; Q meniscal volume), radiographic (trabecular bone texture (TBT)), and serum and/or urine biochemical markers. Multivariable logistic regression models were built using three different step-wise selection methods (complex vs. parsimonious models).

RESULTS

Among baseline biomarkers, the number of locations affected by osteophytes (SQ), Q central medial femoral and central lateral femoral cartilage thickness, patellar bone shape, and SQ Hoffa-synovitis predicted progression in most models (C-statistics 0.641-0.671). 24-month changes in SQ MRI markers (effusion-synovitis, meniscal morphology, and cartilage damage), Q central medial femoral cartilage thickness, Q medial tibial cartilage volume, Q lateral patellofemoral bone area, horizontal TBT (intercept term), and urine NTX-I predicted progression in most models (C-statistics 0.680-0.724). A different combination of imaging and biochemical biomarkers (baseline and 24-month change) predicted radiographic progression only, with higher C-statistics (0.716-0.832).

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the combination of biomarkers with potential prognostic utility in OA disease-modifying trials. Properly qualified, these biomarkers could be used to enrich future trials with participants likely to progress.

The Longitudinal Relationship Between Physical Activity and Joint Space Narrowing: 48-Month Follow-Up Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether amount of physical activity (PA) is a determinant of joint space narrowing (JSN) worsening over 48-months in participants with knee osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. PA, measured using the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), was defined as the mean value of the annual measurements conducted prior to development of worsening JSN. Worsening JSN was defined as at least a partial grade increase in OARSI JSN score over 48 months, in comparison with baseline. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) function was used to group participants based on the linear association between PA and JSN worsening. A pooled logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between PA and JSN worsening adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

2,167 participants were included. In total, 625 (28.8%) participants had JSN worsening over 48 months. Compared with PASE score of 140-180, PASE scores of 100-140 and >220 associated with an increased risk of JSN worsening in men with OR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.07, 2.81) and 1.83 (1.14, 2.93) respectively. Similarly, in participants with Kellgren and Lawrence grade 2, compared with a PASE score of 140-180, PASE score of <100 and >220 were associated with increased risks of JSN worsening, with OR (95% CIs) of 1.69 (1.13, 2.54) and 1.64 (1.05, 2.56) respectively.

CONCLUSION

Compared to moderate PA, higher or lower amounts of PA are associated with elevated risk for JSN worsening in men and in participants with KL grade 2 knees.

The presence of erosive joints is a strong predictor of radiological progression in hand osteoarthritis: results of a 2-year prospective follow-up of the Liège Hand Osteoarthritis Cohort (LIHOC)

Background

This study measured the magnitude and determinants of clinical and radiological progression in patients with hand osteoarthritis (HOA) over a 2-year prospective follow-up to gain a greater understanding of the disease time course.

Methods

Two hundred three consecutive outpatients diagnosed with HOA were followed for 2 years (183 women, median age 69 years). Pain and function were evaluated using the Australian/Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index (AUSCAN), and clinical examination recorded the number of painful/swollen joints and nodes. X-rays were scored using Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) and Verbruggen-Veys scales. Clinical progression was defined as deterioration in AUSCAN ≥ the minimal clinically important difference. Radiographic progression was defined as (a) one new erosive/remodeled joint, (b) progression of ≥ one anatomical stage in one joint, or (c) change in KL total score above the smallest detectable difference. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether patient characteristics influenced clinical and radiological progression.

Results

After 2 years, all radiographic scores deteriorated significantly in the study population (p <  0.05), and the number of proximal and distal interphalangeal nodes was significantly higher (p <  0.01). The AUSCAN, number of painful joints at rest or at pressure, number of swollen joints, and pain measure on a visual analog scale remained unchanged. At the individual level, the number of patients with clinically meaningful progression ranged from 25 to 42% (clinical progression) and from 22 to 76% (radiological progression). The only significant predictor of worsening of total AUSCAN was AUSCAN pain subscale < 74.5 (odds ratio [OR] 1.02 [1.01, 1.03]; p <  0.01). The presence of ≥ four swollen joints (OR 2.78 [1.21, 6.39]; p = 0.02) and erosive osteoarthritis (OR 13.23 [5.07, 34.56]; p <  0.01) at baseline predicted a new erosive joint. A meaningful change in KL was more frequent with painful joints at baseline (OR 3.43 [1.68, 7.01]; p <  0.01).

Conclusions

Evidence of radiological progression over 2 years was observed in patients with HOA in the LIHOC population even without clinical worsening of disease. For individual patients, baseline pain level is predictive for clinical progression and the presence of erosive or swollen joints are significant predictors of radiological progression.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-020-02390-x.

The perspectives of intra-articular therapy in the management of osteoarthritis

Management of Osteoarthritis (OA) still is a challenge for clinicians. Taking into account a multidisciplinary approach including pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments, intra-articular (IA) injection could be considered as an effective local therapy. Areas covered This review provides a new perspective of IA treatment going beyond current available IA agents. We describe novel biological targets for developing new IA agents and innovative modalities of delivery systems. Additional topics include predictors of response for a better choice of IA agents for each patient, diagnostic and prognostic role of biomarkers, accuracy of IA injection, and cost-effectiveness of IA injection. Expert opinion IA treatments seem to be very promising for the management of OA. Identifying clinical and biochemical predictive factors could drive clinician to the appropriate therapeutic approach. To date, there is a gap regarding the benefit of IA treatments in the 'real practice' once they have been adopted. However, considering these promising effects of IA approach, several open questions remain not clarified.

Cohort profile: The Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway (IMI-APPROACH) study: a 2-year, European, cohort study to describe, validate and predict phenotypes of osteoarthritis using clinical, imaging and biochemical markers

PURPOSE

The Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway (APPROACH) consortium intends to prospectively describe in detail, preselected patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA), using conventional and novel clinical, imaging, and biochemical markers, to support OA drug development.

PARTICIPANTS

APPROACH is a prospective cohort study including 297 patients with tibiofemoral OA, according to the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. Patients were (pre)selected from existing cohorts using machine learning models, developed on data from the CHECK cohort, to display a high likelihood of radiographic joint space width (JSW) loss and/or knee pain progression.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Selection appeared logistically feasible and baseline characteristics of the cohort demonstrated an OA population with more severe disease: age 66.5 (SD 7.1) vs 68.1 (7.7) years, min-JSW 2.5 (1.3) vs 2.1 (1.0) mm and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score pain 31.3 (19.7) vs 17.7 (14.6), except for age, all: p<0.001, for selected versus excluded patients, respectively. Based on the selection model, this cohort has a predicted higher chance of progression.

FUTURE PLANS

Patients will visit the hospital again at 6, 12 and 24 months for physical examination, pain and general health questionnaires, collection of blood and urine, MRI scans, radiographs of knees and hands, CT scan of the knee, low radiation whole-body CT, HandScan, motion analysis and performance-based tests.After two years, data will show whether those patients with the highest probabilities for progression experienced disease progression as compared to those wit lower probabilities (model validation) and whether phenotypes/endotypes can be identified and predicted to facilitate targeted drug therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03883568.

Quantitative 3D imaging parameters improve prediction of hip osteoarthritis outcome

Osteoarthritis is an increasingly important health problem for which the main treatment remains joint replacement. Therapy developments have been hampered by a lack of biomarkers that can reliably predict disease, while 2D radiographs interpreted by human observers are still the gold standard for clinical trial imaging assessment. We propose a 3D approach using computed tomography—a fast, readily available clinical technique—that can be applied in the assessment of osteoarthritis using a new quantitative 3D analysis technique called joint space mapping (JSM). We demonstrate the application of JSM at the hip in 263 healthy older adults from the AGES-Reykjavík cohort, examining relationships between 3D joint space width, 3D joint shape, and future joint replacement. Using JSM, statistical shape modelling, and statistical parametric mapping, we show an 18% improvement in prediction of joint replacement using 3D metrics combined with radiographic Kellgren & Lawrence grade (AUC 0.86) over the existing 2D FDA-approved gold standard of minimum 2D joint space width (AUC 0.73). We also show that assessment of joint asymmetry can reveal significant differences between individuals destined for joint replacement versus controls at regions of the joint that are not captured by radiographs. This technique is immediately implementable with standard imaging technologies.

Clinical phenotypes based on clinical prognostic factors in patients with secondary hip osteoarthritis: preliminary findings from a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Recently, several clinical prognostic factors for hip osteoarthritis (OA) progression such as spinal malalignment, reduced spinal mobility, and excessive daily cumulative hip loading have been identified. This study aimed to identify clinical phenotypes based on clinical prognostic factors in patients with secondary hip OA using data from prospective cohort studies and to define the clinical features of each phenotype.

METHODS

Fifty patients participated. Two-step cluster analysis was performed to identify the phenotypes using the following potential prognostic factors for hip OA progression: spinal inclination in standing, thoracolumbar spine mobility, daily cumulative hip moment, and minimum joint space width (JSW) at baseline. Comprehensive basic and clinical features (age, body mass index, hip pain, Harris hip score, JSW, radiographic hip morphology, hip impairments, spinal alignment and mobility, and gait-related variables) and ratio of progressors in 12 months were compared among the phenotypes using bootstrap method (unadjusted and adjusted for age).

RESULTS

Three phenotypes were identified and each phenotype was characterized as follows (P < 0.05): phenotype 1 (30%)-relatively young age and higher daily cumulative hip loading; phenotype 2 (42.0%)-relatively older age, reduced JSW, and less spinal mobility; and phenotype 3 (28.0%)-changed thoracic spine alignment and less spinal (especially in the thoracic spine) mobility. The ratio of progressors among the phenotypes was not statistically significantly different. These characteristics remained after adjustment for age.

CONCLUSION

Three phenotypes with similar progression risk were identified. This finding will help in designing treatment tailored to each phenotype for hip OA progression prevention.Key Points• Three phenotypes with similar progression risk were identified based on clinical prognostic factors.• Phenotype 1 was characterized by young age and higher daily cumulative hip loading.• Phenotype 2 was relatively old age and had reduced JSW and less spinal mobility.• Phenotype 3 had changed thoracic spine alignment and less thoracic spine mobility.

A pilot study of peripheral blood DNA methylation models as predictors of knee osteoarthritis radiographic progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of chronic disability worldwide, but no diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers are available. Increasing evidence supports epigenetic dysregulation as a contributor to OA pathogenesis. In this pilot study, we investigated epigenetic patterns in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) as models to predict future radiographic progression in OA patients enrolled in the longitudinal Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study. PBMC DNA was analyzed from baseline OAI visits in 58 future radiographic progressors (joint space narrowing at 24 months, sustained at 48 months) compared to 58 non-progressors. DNA methylation was quantified via Illumina microarrays and beta- and M-values were used to generate linear classification models. Data were randomly split into a 60% development and 40% validation subsets, models developed and tested, and cross-validated in a total of 40 cycles. M-value based models outperformed beta-value based models (ROC-AUC 0.81 ± 0.01 vs. 0.73 ± 0.02, mean ± SEM, comparison p = 0.002), with a mean classification accuracy of 73 ± 1% (mean ± SEM) for M- and 69 ± 1% for beta-based models. Adjusting for covariates did not significantly alter model performance. Our findings suggest that PBMC DNA methylation-based models may be useful as biomarkers of OA progression and warrant additional evaluation in larger patient cohorts.

Phenotypes of osteoarthritis: current state and future implications

In the most recent years, an extraordinary research effort has emerged to disentangle osteoarthritis heterogeneity, opening new avenues for progressing with therapeutic development and unravelling the pathogenesis of this complex condition. Several phenotypes and endotypes have been proposed albeit none has been sufficiently validated for clinical or research use as yet. This review discusses the latest advances in OA phenotyping including how new modern statistical strategies based on machine learning and big data can help advance this field of research.

Efficacy and safety of avocado-soybean unsaponifiables for the treatment of hip and knee osteoarthritis: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis from randomized controlled trials to examine the efficacy and safety of avocado-soybean unsaponifiables (ASU) in patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA).

DATA SOURCES

Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases were searched for randomized placebo-controlled trials.

STUDY SELECTION

Original studies were randomized placebo-controlled trials evaluating the effect of orally administered ASU on knee or hip OA symptoms using the Lequesne index, visual analog scale (VAS) and/or joint space width (JSW).

DATA EXTRACTION

Meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects model and generic inverse variance method. Heterogeneity was tested using the I² statistic index.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Avocado-soybean unsaponifiables therapy had a significant reduction on pain by VAS assessment (weighted mean difference [WMD]: -9.64 mm, 95% CI: -17.43, -1.84; P = .02; I²  = 92%). A subanalysis according to the type of OA showed that ASU significantly decreased both VAS and Lequesne index in knee OA (WMD: -17.36, 95% CI: -25.91, -8.82; P < .0001; I²  = 87% and WMD: -2.33, 95% CI: -2.88, -1.78; P < .00001; I²  = 18%, respectively) but not in hip OA. Finally, ASU supplementation showed no significant differences for adverse events compared to placebo (relative risk: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.25; P = .88; I²  = 0%).

CONCLUSION

Results of this meta-analysis suggest a beneficial effect of ASU treatment in symptomatic knee OA but not in hip OA. Additionally, adverse events were similar in patients receiving ASU therapy or placebo.

Intra-articular corticosteroids and the risk of knee osteoarthritis progression: results from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVE

A recent randomized clinical trial reported that repeated intra-articular corticosteroids (IACs) were associated with a greater cartilage loss. This study aimed to examine the relation of IACs to knee radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) progression in a real-world setting.

DESIGN

A cohort that initiated IACs and a comparison cohort without IACs from participants with mild to moderate knee ROA in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) were assembled (from 0-month to 48-month). Two measures of knee ROA progression were assessed during the follow-up period: (1) an increase in Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) grade by ≥1 grade or having a knee replacement (i.e., KL grade worsening); and (2) a decrease in joint space width (JSW) by ≥0.7 mm or having a knee replacement (i.e., JSW worsening). The associations of IACs initiation using a propensity-score matched cohort study and continuous IACs using marginal structural models with the risk of knee ROA progression were examined.

RESULTS

Among 684 propensity-score matched participants at baseline (148 IACs initiators, 536 comparators), 65 knees (21.7/100 person-years) in the IACs initiation cohort and 90 knees (7.1/100 person-years) in the comparison cohort experienced KL worsening. The hazard ratios (HRs) of KL worsening from IACs initiation and continuous IACs were 3.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.19-4.16) and 4.67 (95% CI, 2.92-7.47), respectively. The corresponding HRs of JSW worsening were 2.93 (95% CI, 2.13-4.02) and 3.26 (95% CI, 1.78-5.96), respectively. All HRs for continuous use of IACs were further away from the null.

CONCLUSIONS

IACs, especially continuous IACs, may be associated with an increased risk of knee ROA progression.

Trajectories of femorotibial cartilage thickness among persons with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis: development of a prediction model to identify progressors

OBJECTIVE

There is significant variability in the trajectory of structural progression across people with knee osteoarthritis (OA). We aimed to identify distinct trajectories of femorotibial cartilage thickness over 2 years and develop a prediction model to identify individuals experiencing progressive cartilage loss.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) (n = 1,014). Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was used to identify trajectories of medial femorotibial cartilage thickness assessed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline, 1 and 2 years. Baseline characteristics were compared between trajectory-based subgroups and a prediction model was developed including those with frequent knee symptoms at baseline (n = 686). To examine clinical relevance of the trajectories, we assessed their association with concurrent changes in knee pain and incidence of total knee replacement (TKR) over 4 years.

RESULTS

The optimal model identified three distinct trajectories: (1) stable (87.7% of the population, mean change -0.08 mm, SD 0.19); (2) moderate cartilage loss (10.0%, -0.75 mm, SD 0.16) and (3) substantial cartilage loss (2.2%, -1.38 mm, SD 0.23). Higher Western Ontario & McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scores, family history of TKR, obesity, radiographic medial joint space narrowing (JSN) ≥1 and pain duration ≤1 year were predictive of belonging to either the moderate or substantial cartilage loss trajectory [area under the curve (AUC) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74, 0.84]. The two progression trajectories combined were associated with pain progression (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.34, 2.97) and incidence of TKR (OR 4.34, 1.62, 11.62).

CONCLUSIONS

A minority of individuals follow a progressive cartilage loss trajectory which was strongly associated with poorer clinical outcomes. If externally validated, the prediction model may help to select individuals who may benefit from cartilage-targeted therapies.

Longitudinal evidence links joint level mechanics and muscle activation patterns to 3-year medial joint space narrowing

BACKGROUND

It is currently not known if there are different mechanical factors involved in accelerated rates of knee osteoarthritis structural progression. Data regarding the role of the transverse plane moment along with the contributions to joint loading from muscle activity, a primary contributor to the joint loading environment, is not well represented in the current literature on knee OA radiographic progression. The objective of this study was to understand if a 3-year end point corroborates what has been shown for longer term radiographic progression or provides more insight into factors that may be implicated in more accelerated radiographic progression than those shown previously.

METHODS

52 participants visited the Dynamics of Human Motion laboratory at baseline for three-dimensional, self-selected speed over ground walking gait analysis. Differences in magnitude and patterns of 3D knee moments and electromyography waveforms between participants who progressed radiographically from those that did not were compared using t-tests (P < 0.05).

FINDINGS

Features of the frontal and transverse plane knee moments along with muscle activation patterns for the lateral gastrocnemius and lateral hamstrings differentiated the progression group from the non-progression group at baseline.

INTERPRETATION

In general, the walking gait biomechanics of the progression group in this 3-year radiographic study aligned well with previously reported characteristics of diagnosed or symptomatic osteoarthritis. The higher rotation moment range during stance found with the progression group is a novel finding that points to a need to better understand torsional joint loading and its implications for loading of the knee joint tissues.

Efficacy of bisphosphonates in specific knee osteoarthritis subpopulations: protocol for an OA Trial Bank systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Randomised clinical trials to date investigating the efficacy of bisphosphonates in knee osteoarthritis (OA) have found divergent results, with a recent meta-analysis finding no superiority of these drugs over placebo. Whether particular patient subgroups are more likely to benefit from this therapy than others is still unclear. We aim to investigate the effects of bisphosphonates compared with a control group (placebo, no treatment, another active treatment) on clinical and structural outcomes in specific knee OA subpopulations with possible distinct rates of subchondral bone turnover.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Sciences and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials will be searched from inception to February 2018. Randomised clinical trials will be eligible if they reported at least one potential treatment effect modifier at baseline: gender, menopausal status, age, body mass index, radiographic stage, knee pain severity, presence of bone marrow lesions, levels of biochemical markers of bone turnover (serum and/or urinary) and systemic bone mineral density status. Authors of original trials will be contacted to obtain individual patient data from each study. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's tool. The primary outcomes will include pain and radiographic joint space width loss. Studies using other MRI-based assessment of disease progression will also be eligible. Outcomes will be grouped into short-term (≤3 months), intermediate-term (>3 months; ≤12 months) and long-term (>12 months). Regression models will be used, adding an interaction term for each subgroup of interest to determine possible subgroup effects. There was no source of funding for this study.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Dissemination of our findings is planned to occur through conference presentations, publication in peer-reviewed journals and social media. No formal ethics approval is generally required as no new data collection will be undertaken.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018093327.

The role of thigh muscle and adipose tissue in knee osteoarthritis progression in women: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether loss in thigh muscle strength in women concurrent with knee osteoarthritis progression is associated with reductions of muscle anatomical cross-sectional area (ACSA) or specific-strength (i.e., isometric force÷ACSA), and to explore relationships with local adiposity.

DESIGN

Female participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative with Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≤3, thigh isometric strength measurements, and thigh magnetic resonance images at year-two (Y2) and year-four (Y4) (n = 739, age 62 ± 9 years; body mass index measurements (BMI) 28.8 ± 5.9 kg/m²) were grouped into: (1) those with vs without symptomatic progression (≥9 increase in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC)-pain [scale: 0-100]); and (2) those with vs without radiographic progression (≥0.7 mm reduction in minimum joint space width). The change in knee extensor and flexor ACSA and specific-strength, and subcutaneous and intermuscular fat (IMF) ACSAs were compared between progressors and non-progressors using analysis of covariance.

RESULTS

Symptomatic progression was associated with a significantly greater loss (p < 0.001) of knee extensor ACSA (-2.0%, 95%CI -2.5, -1.5) compared to those without progression (-0.7%, 95%CI -1.0, -0.4), and greater loss (p = 0.020) of knee flexor specific-strength (-7.6%, 95%CI -11.5, -3.7; vs -2.4%, 95%CI -4.8, 0.0). Radiographic progression was associated with a significantly greater increase (p = 0.023) in IMF (+1.7%, 95%CI -0.1, +3.6) compared to those without progression (-0.6%, 95%CI -1.6, +0.3).

CONCLUSION

The significant reduction in thigh muscle strength concurrent with symptomatic progression in women appears to be associated with loss of extensor muscle ACSA and flexor specific-strength. In contrast, radiographic progression appears to be unrelated to muscle properties, but to be associated with local (intermuscular) adiposity gains.

Knee extensor muscle weakness and radiographic knee osteoarthritis progression

Background and purpose - Knee extensor (KE) muscle weakness is a modifiable feature commonly observed in individuals with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) and constitutes a potential target for patient-specific interventions. Therefore, in this study, we explored whether KE weakness is associated with radiographic (medial and/or lateral) KOA progression and how this relationship differs depending on frontal plane knee alignment and sex. Patients and methods - We studied 3,075 knees (1,961 participants, 58% female) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative with radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence grade 1-3. Peak KE torque (Nm/kg) was assessed at baseline, and progression defined as fixed-location joint space width loss (≥ 0.7mm) in medial and lateral tibiofemoral compartments from baseline to 4-year follow-up. Knee-based generalized estimating equations, stratified by alignment (malaligned vs. neutral), estimated the relative risk (RR) of progression for those in the lowest (and middle) vs. highest KE torque group (split by tertiles). Secondary analyses explored whether this relationship was compartmental- or sex-specific. Results - Being in the lowest (or middle) compared with the highest torque group increased the risk of progression in neutrally aligned knees (relative risk [RR] 1.2 [95% CI 1.0-1.4]; and 1.2 [CI 1.0-1.4], respectively), but not after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, pain, and radiographic severity. In secondary analyses, women with neutral alignment in the lowest compared with the highest torque group had significantly increased risk of lateral compartment progression independent of age, BMI, disease severity, and pain (RR 1.3 [CI 1.0-1.8]). No association was observed between KE torque and KOA progression in men, irrespective of alignment. Interpretation - These results identify a potentially important clinical phenotype: KE weakness may be a more important risk factor for radiographic KOA progression in women without knee malalignment.

A new quantitative 3D approach to imaging of structural joint disease

Imaging of joints with 2D radiography has not been able to detect therapeutic success in research trials while 3D imaging, used regularly in the clinic, has not been approved for this purpose. We present a new 3D approach to this challenge called joint space mapping (JSM) that measures joint space width in 3D from standard clinical computed tomography (CT) data, demonstrating its analysis steps, technical validation, and reproducibility. Using high resolution peripheral quantitative CT as gold standard, we show a marginal over-estimation in accuracy of +0.13 mm and precision of ±0.32 mm. Inter-operator reproducibility bias was near-zero at −0.03 mm with limits of agreement ±0.29 mm and a root mean square coefficient of variation 7.5%. In a technical advance, we present results from across the hip joint in 3D with optimum validation and reproducibility metrics shown at inner joint regions. We also show JSM versatility using different imaging data sets and discuss potential applications. This 3D mapping approach provides information with greater sensitivity than reported for current radiographic methods that could result in improved patient stratification and treatment monitoring.

Sagittal alignment and mobility of the thoracolumbar spine are associated with radiographic progression of secondary hip osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To identify predictors of radiographic progression of hip osteoarthritis (OA) over 12 months among functional hip impairments and spinal alignment and mobility.

DESIGN

Fifty female patients with secondary hip OA, excluding those with end-stage hip OA, participated in this prospective cohort study. Joint space width (JSW) of the hip was measured at baseline and 12 months later. With radiographic progression of hip OA over 12 months (>0.5 mm in JSW) as dependent variable, logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors for hip OA progression among functional impairments of the hip and spine with and without adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), and minimum JSW at baseline. The independent variables were hip pain, Harris hip score (HHS), hip morphological parameters, hip passive range of motion (ROM) and muscle strength, and alignment and mobility of the thoracolumbar spine at baseline.

RESULTS

Twenty-one (42.0%) patients demonstrated radiographic progression of hip OA. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that larger anterior inclination of the spine in standing position (adjusted OR [95% CI], 1.37 [1.04-1.80]; P = 0.028) and less thoracolumbar spine mobility (adjusted OR [95% CI], 0.96 [0.92-0.99]; P = 0.037) at baseline were statistically significantly associated with radiographic progression of hip OA, even after adjustment for age, BMI, and minimum JSW.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that spinal alignment and mobility should be considered when assessing risk and designing preventive intervention for radiographic progression of secondary hip OA.

Association of Mucoid Degeneration of the Anterior Cruciate Ligament at MR Imaging with Medial Tibiofemoral Osteoarthritis Progression at Radiography: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Purpose To determine whether anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) mucoid degeneration in participants with or at risk for osteoarthritis is associated with longitudinal risk of radiographic progression of medial tibiofemoral compartment joint space loss (JSL). Materials and Methods Baseline demographic, clinical, radiographic, and Magnetic Resonance (MR) Imaging Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) data were evaluated in 600 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative database. Two blinded musculoskeletal radiologists independently evaluated baseline MR images for ACL mucoid degeneration. Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate the association between ACL mucoid degeneration at MR imaging and JSL progression at radiography, defined as a minimum joint space width decrease greater than 0.7 mm (48 months; cutoff according to mean and standard deviation of 1-year minimum joint space width changes in 90 knees of reference group). Stratified analysis was performed based on baseline cartilage surface damage. Results Knees with ACL mucoid degeneration showed a greater proportion of JSL progression compared with knees with a normal ACL (64% vs 47%; P = .004). After adjustment for all demographic, clinical, radiographic, and MOAKS variables, ACL mucoid degeneration was not statistically significantly associated with JSL progression in the entire cohort (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 2.77; P = .051). In subgroup analysis, ACL mucoid degeneration was statistically significantly associated with JSL progression in participants with less baseline cartilage surface damage (maximum cartilage surface loss of ≤75% in all subregions [P = .015] and ≤4 of involved subregions with cartilage surface loss [P = .028]). Conclusion ACL mucoid degeneration in participants with or at risk for osteoarthritis is associated with progression of medial tibiofemoral compartment JSL in knees with less baseline cartilage surface area damage. ^© RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Effects of dietary weight loss with and without exercise on interstitial matrix turnover and tissue inflammation biomarkers in adults with knee osteoarthritis: the Intensive Diet and Exercise for Arthritis trial (IDEA)

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of dietary weight loss, with and without exercise, on selected soluble biomarkers in overweight and obese older adults with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA).

DESIGN

Blood samples were analyzed from 429 participants in the Intensive Diet and Exercise for Arthritis (IDEA) trial randomized to either an 18 month exercise control group (E), weight loss diet (D), or D + E. C1M, C2M, C3M and CRPM biomarkers and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were quantitated using ELISAs. Radiographic progression was defined as a decrease in joint space width of ≥0.7 mm. Statistical modeling of group means and associations used mixed models adjusted for visit, baseline body mass index (BMI), gender, and baseline values of the outcome.

RESULTS

Compared to the E control group, C1M was significantly lower in the D and D + E groups at both 6 and 18 months while C3M was significantly lower in D and D + E at 6 months and in D + E at 18 months. C2M did not change in any group. Using data from all groups, change in C1M (P < 0.0001), C3M (P < 0.0001), as well as CRPM (P = 0.0004) from baseline to 18 months was positively associated with change in weight. No marker was associated with change in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain or radiographic progression. C3M (P = 0.008) and CRPM (P = 0.028) were positively associated with change in WOMAC function. Change in IL-6 was positively associated with change in C1M, C3M, and CRPM.

CONCLUSION

Overweight and obese adults with knee OA who lost weight from diet and diet plus exercise reduced serum markers of interstitial matrix turnover and inflammation but not type II collagen degradation.

Statin use and knee osteoarthritis progression: Results from a post-hoc analysis of the SEKOIA trial

OBJECTIVE

Epidemiological and experimental studies have suggested that lipid disorders might be involved in the pathophysiology of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Studies assessing the effect of statins on knee OA progression have shown conflicting results. We investigated the impact of statin use on radiological progression in patients with radiological and symptomatic knee OA.

METHODS

In total, 336 patients from the placebo arm of SEKOIA trial completed the 3-year follow-up and were included in this post-hoc analysis. Statin use was recorded at baseline interview. Minimal medial tibiofemoral joint space was measured on plain radiographs by an automated method at baseline and then annually. Radiologic progression was defined as joint space narrowing≥0.5mm over 3 years.

RESULTS

Overall, 71 patients were statin users (21.1%). They had a higher BMI (31.1±5.3 vs. 29.3±5.2kg/m², P=0.008), a higher sum of metabolic factors (≥3 factors: 43.7% vs 7.2%; P for trend<0.001) and a higher rate of radiological progression (49.3% vs. 32.1%, P=0.007) as compared to statin non-users. The significant association between radiological progression and statin use was independent of age, gender, WOMAC global score, disease duration, baseline joint space width, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, obesity (BMI>30kg/m²) and cardiovascular diseases [relative risk 1.49 (95% CI: 1.10-2.02), P=0.010].

CONCLUSION

Among patients with knee OA, statin use was associated with radiological worsening over 3 years, regardless of other potential confounding factors (obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, disease duration, symptom intensity and radiological severity).

Longitudinal change in thigh muscle strength prior to and concurrent with symptomatic and radiographic knee osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether symptomatic and/or radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression is associated with prior and/or concurrent change in thigh muscle strength in men or women.

DESIGN

Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants with isometric muscle strength measurements at baseline, 2- and 4-year follow-up (n = 1785: 1016 women) were grouped into 1) those with vs without symptomatic progression (i.e., increase ≥9 in WOMAC-pain [scale: 0-100]); and 2) those with vs without radiographic progression (i.e., decrease in minimum joint space width (JSW) ≥0.7 mm) between year-two and year-four follow-up. Sex-specific changes in thigh muscle strength concurrent (between year-two and year-four follow-up) and prior to (between baseline and year-two follow-up) symptomatic and radiographic progression were compared between groups (progression vs no progression) using analysis of covariance, with adjustment for age and body mass index.

RESULTS

In women, but not in men, loss in knee extensor and flexor strength was greater concurrent with symptomatic progression (extensors: -3.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -6.4, -0.9; flexors: -7.2% 95% CI -10.7, -3.7) than in women without symptomatic progression (extensors: -0.3%, 95% CI -1.9, 1.3, P = 0.030; flexors: -2.6%, 95% CI -4.7, -0.6, P = 0.018). No association was found between extensor or flexor strength loss concurrent to radiographic progression, in either men or women, nor any statistically significant association between prior change in muscle strength with symptomatic or radiographic progression.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that there is concurrent but not prior longitudinal association between loss in muscle strength and symptomatic KOA progression that is specific to women.

Longitudinal association between foot and ankle symptoms and worsening of symptomatic radiographic knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether foot and/or ankle symptoms are associated with an increased risk of worsening of knee pain and radiographic change in people with knee osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

The presence and laterality of foot/ankle symptoms were recorded at baseline in 1368 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) with symptomatic radiographic knee OA. Knee pain severity (measured using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain subscale) and minimum medial tibiofemoral joint space (minJSW) width measured on X-ray were assessed yearly over the subsequent 4 years. Associations between foot/ankle symptoms and worsening of (1) knee pain, and (2) both knee pain and minJSW (i.e., symptomatic radiographic knee OA) were assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Foot/ankle symptoms in either foot/ankle significantly increased the odds of knee pain worsening (adjusted OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.91). Laterality analysis showed ipsilateral (adjusted OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.10), contralateral (adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.06) and bilateral foot/ankle symptoms (adjusted OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.13) were all associated with knee pain worsening in the follow up period. There was no association between foot/ankle symptoms and worsening of symptomatic radiographic knee OA.

CONCLUSION

The presence of foot/ankle symptoms in people with symptomatic radiographic knee OA was associated with increased risk of knee pain worsening, but not worsening of symptomatic radiographic knee OA, over the subsequent 4 years. Future studies should investigate whether treatment of foot/ankle symptoms reduces the risk of knee pain worsening in people with knee OA.

Daily cumulative hip moment is associated with radiographic progression of secondary hip osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether higher daily cumulative hip moment at baseline is associated with subsequent radiographic progression of hip osteoarthritis (OA) over 12 months.

DESIGN

Fifty patients with secondary hip OA, excluding patients with end-stage hip OA, participated in this prospective cohort study. Joint space width (JSW) of the hip was measured at baseline and 12 months later. With radiographic progression of hip OA (>0.5 mm/year in JSW) as dependent variable (yes/no), univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between load-related parameters during gait (i.e., peak hip moment, hip moment impulse, and daily cumulative hip moment [product of hip moment impulse and mean steps/day]) and hip OA progression with and without adjustment for age, body weight, and minimum JSW.

RESULTS

Of the 50 patients (47.4 ± 10.7 years old), 21 (42.0%) were classified into the progression group. The higher daily cumulative hip moment in the frontal plane at baseline was statistically significantly associated with radiographic progression of hip OA (adjusted odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)], 1.34 [1.06-1.70]; P = 0.013). The higher daily cumulative hip moment in the sagittal plane was also approaching significance in its association with hip OA progression (adjusted OR, 1.80 [0.99-3.26]; P = 0.052).

CONCLUSIONS

In the female patients with secondary hip OA, higher daily cumulative hip moment, particularly in the frontal plane, was a predictor of radiographic progression of hip OA over 12 months. Reduction in daily cumulative hip moment by modification in gait and physical activity may potentially slow hip OA progression.

Subregional laminar cartilage MR spin-spin relaxation times (T2) in osteoarthritic knees with and without medial femorotibial cartilage loss - data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether subregional laminar femorotibial cartilage spin-spin relaxation time (T2) is associated with subsequent radiographic progression and cartilage loss and/or whether one-year change in subregional laminar femorotibial cartilage T2 is associated with concurrent progression in knees with established radiographic OA (ROA).

METHODS

In this case-control study, Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) knees with medial femorotibial progression were selected based on one-year loss in both quantitative cartilage thickness Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and radiographic joint space width (JSW). Non-progressor knees were matched by sex, Body mass index (BMI), baseline Kellgren-Lawrence-grade (2/3), and pain. Baseline and one-year follow-up superficial and deep cartilage T2 was analyzed in 16 femorotibial subregions using multi-echo spin-echo MRI.

RESULTS

37 knees showed medial femorotibial progression whereas 37 matched controls had no medial or lateral compartment progression. No statistically significant baseline differences between progressor and non-progressor knees in medial femorotibial cartilage T2 were observed in the superficial (48.9 ± 3.0 ms; 95% CI: [47.9, 49.9] vs 47.8 ± 3.6 ms; 95% CI: [46.6, 49.0], P = 0.07) or deep cartilage layer (40.8 ± 3.6 ms; 95% CI: [39.5, 42.0] vs 40.1 ± 4.7 ms; 95% CI: [38.5, 41.6], P = 0.29). Concurrent T2 change was more pronounced in the deep than the superficial cartilage layer. In the medial femorotibial compartment (MFTC), longitudinal change was greater in the deep layer of progressor than non-progressor knees (1.8 ± 4.5 ms; 95% CI: [0.3, 3.3] vs -0.2 ± 1.9 ms; 95% CI: [-0.8, 0.5], P = 0.02), whereas no difference was observed in the superficial layer.

CONCLUSION

Medial compartment cartilage T2 did not appear to be a strong prognostic factor for subsequent structural progression in the same compartment of knees with established ROA, when appropriately controlling for covariates. Yet, deep layer T2 change in the medial compartment occurred concurrent with medial femorotibial progression.

Predictive Capacity of Thigh Muscle Strength in Symptomatic and/or Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: Data from the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium

Thigh muscle weakness is a risk factor for incident radiographic and symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (KOA). The role of thigh muscle weakness in radiographic and/or symptomatic KOA progression remains elusive. Five hundred twenty-seven knees of 527 Osteoarthritis Initiative participants with baseline Kellgren-Lawrence grades 1 to 3 were included in this nested case-control study evaluating whether baseline muscle strength predicted symptomatic and/or radiographic KOA progression. Case knees (n = 173) displayed both medial tibiofemoral joint space loss (≥0.7 mm) and a persistent increase in Western Ontario McMasters Osteoarthritis Index pain (≥9 on a 0- to 100-point scale) over 24 to 48 months from baseline. Control knees (n = 354) included 174 with neither radiographic nor symptomatic progression, 91 with radiographic progression only, and 89 with symptomatic progression only. Isometric knee extensor and flexor strength were recorded at baseline. Using logistic regression models, muscle strength was not associated with case status. However, knee extensor (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.3; P = 0.035) and flexor weakness (odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1, 3.3; P = 0.016) predicted isolated symptomatic progression in males, but not in females. The results indicate that thigh muscle strength may affect symptomatic and structural progression differently in males with KOA and identify an important window for potentially lowering risk of symptomatic osteoarthritis progression in men.

Semiquantitative Imaging Biomarkers of Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: Data From the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between changes in semiquantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers over 24 months and radiographic and pain progression over 48 months in knees with mild-to-moderate osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

We undertook a nested case-control study as part of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Biomarkers Consortium Project. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the association between change over 24 months in semiquantitative MRI markers and radiographic and pain progression in knee OA. MRIs were read according to the MRI OA Knee Score system. We focused on changes in cartilage, osteophytes, meniscus, bone marrow lesions, Hoffa-synovitis, and effusion-synovitis.

RESULTS

The most parsimonious model included changes in cartilage thickness and surface area, effusion-synovitis, Hoffa-synovitis, and meniscal morphology (C statistic 0.740). Compared with no worsening, worsening in cartilage thickness in ≥3 subregions was associated with 2.8-fold (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.3-5.9) greater odds of being a case, and worsening in cartilage surface area in ≥3 subregions was associated with 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.3-4.4) greater odds of being a case. Worsening of meniscal morphology in any region was associated with 2.2-fold (95% CI 1.3-3.8) greater odds of being a case. Worsening effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis were also associated with a greater odds of being a case (odds ratios 2.7 and 2.0, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Twenty-four-month changes in cartilage thickness, cartilage surface area, effusion-synovitis, Hoffa-synovitis, and meniscal morphology were independently associated with OA progression, suggesting that these factors may serve as efficacy biomarkers in clinical trials of disease-modifying interventions for knee OA.

T1ρ and T2 relaxation times are associated with progression of hip osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether baseline T1ρ and T2 relaxation times of hip cartilage are associated with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based progression of hip osteoarthritis (OA) at 18 months.

METHODS

3T MRI studies of the hip were obtained at baseline and 18-month follow-up for 54 subjects without evidence of severe OA at baseline [Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score of 0-3]. 2D fast spin-echo sequences were used for semi-quantitative morphological scoring of cartilage lesions and a combined T1ρ/T2 sequence was used to quantitatively assess cartilage composition. Progression of hip OA was defined based on incident or progression of morphological semi-quantitative grade at 18 months. Baseline T1ρ and T2 relaxation times were compared between progressors and non-progressors using one-way analysis of variance and Mann-Whitney U tests and used to predict progression with binary logistic regression after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, and KL score. Additionally, a novel voxel-based relaxometry technique was used to compare the spatial distribution of baseline T1ρ and T2 between progressors and non-progressors.

RESULTS

Significantly higher baseline T1ρ and T2 values were observed in hip OA progressors compared to non-progressors, particularly in the posterosuperior and anterior aspects of the femoral cartilage. Logistic regression showed that higher baseline T1ρ or T2 values in the femoral cartilage were significantly associated with progression of femoral cartilage lesions at 18 months.

CONCLUSION

T1ρ and T2 relaxation parameters are associated with morphological cartilage degeneration at 18 months and may serve as potential imaging biomarkers for progression of cartilage lesions in hip OA.

Association of urinary metabolites with radiographic progression of knee osteoarthritis in overweight and obese adults: an exploratory study

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic factors may contribute to osteoarthritis (OA). This study employed metabolomics analyses to determine if differences in metabolite profiles could distinguish people with knee OA who exhibited radiographic progression.

METHODS

Urine samples obtained at baseline and 18 months from overweight and obese adults in the Intensive Diet and Exercise for Arthritis (IDEA) trial were selected from two subgroups (n = 22 each) for metabolomics analysis: a group that exhibited radiographic progression (≥0.7 mm decrease in joint space width, JSW) and an age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) matched group who did not progress (≤0.35 mm decrease in JSW). Multivariate analysis methods, including orthogonal partial least square discriminate analysis, were used to identify metabolite profiles that separated progressors and non-progressors. Plasma levels of IL-6 and C-reactive protein (CRP) were evaluated as inflammatory markers.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis of the binned metabolomics data distinguished progressors from non-progressors. Library matching revealed that glycolate, hippurate, and trigonelline were among the important metabolites for distinguishing progressors from non-progressors at baseline whereas alanine, N,N-dimethylglycine, glycolate, hippurate, histidine, and trigonelline, were among the metabolites that were important for the discrimination at 18 months. In non-progressors, IL-6 decreased from baseline to 18 months while IL-6 was unchanged in progressors; the change over time in IL-6 was significantly different between groups.

CONCLUSION

These findings support a role for metabolic factors in the progression of knee OA and suggest that measurement of metabolites could be useful to predict progression. Further investigation in a larger sample that would include targeted investigation of specific metabolites is warranted.

Sensitivity-to-change and validity of semi-automatic joint space width measurements in hand osteoarthritis: a follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

To assess sensitivity-to-change and validity of longitudinal quantitative semi-automatic joint space width (JSW) measurements and to compare this method with semi-quantitative joint space narrowing (JSN) scoring in hand osteoarthritis (OA) patients.

DESIGN

Baseline and 2-year follow-up radiographs of 56 hand OA patients (mean age 62 years, 86% women) were used. JSN was scored 0-3 using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International atlas and JSW was quantified in millimetres (mm) in the second to fifth distal, proximal interphalangeal and metacarpal joints (DIPJs, PIPJs, MCPJs). Sensitivity-to-change was evaluated by calculating Standardized Response Means (SRMs). Change in JSW or JSN above the Smallest Detectable Difference (SDD) defined progression on joint level. To assess construct validity, progressed joints were compared by cross-tabulation and by associating baseline ultrasound variables with progression (using generalized estimating equations, adjusting for age and sex).

RESULTS

The JSW method detected statistically significant mean changes over 2.6 years (-0.027 mm (95%CI -0.01; -0.04), -0.024 mm (-0.01; -0.03), -0.021 mm (-0.01; -0.03) for DIPJs, PIPJs, MCPJs, respectively). Sensitivity-to-change was low (SRMs: 0.174, 0.168, 0.211, respectively). 9.1% (121/1336) of joints progressed in JSW, but 3.6% (48/1336) widened. 83 (6.2%) joints progressed in JSW only, 36 (2.7%) in JSN only and 37 (2.8%) in both methods. Progression in JSW showed weaker associations with baseline inflammatory ultrasound features than progression in JSN.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of progression in hand OA defined by JSW measurements is possible, but performs less well than progression defined by JSN scoring. Therefore, the value of JSW measurements in hand OA clinical trials remains questionable.

Prediction of medial tibiofemoral compartment joint space loss progression using volumetric cartilage measurements: Data from the FNIH OA biomarkers consortium

OBJECTIVES

Investigating the association between baseline cartilage volume measurements (and initial 24th month volume loss) with medial compartment Joint-Space-Loss (JSL) progression (>0.7 mm) during 24-48th months of study.

METHODS

Case and control cohorts (Biomarkers Consortium subset from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)) were defined as participants with (n=297) and without (n=303) medial JSL progression (during 24-48th months). Cartilage volume measurements (baseline and 24th month loss) were obtained at five knee plates (medial-tibial, lateral-tibial, medial-femoral, lateral-femoral and patellar), and standardized values were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used with adjustment for known confounders. Artificial-Neural-Network analysis was conducted by Multi-Layer-Perceptrons (MLPs) including baseline determinants, and baseline (1) and interval changes (2) in cartilage volumes.

RESULTS

Larger baseline lateral-femoral cartilage volume was predictive of medial JSL (OR: 1.29 (1.01-1.64)). Greater initial 24th month lateral-femoral cartilage volume-loss (OR: 0.48 (0.27-0.84)) had protective effect on medial JSL during 24-48th months of study. Baseline and interval changes in lateral-femoral cartilage volume, were the most important estimators for medial JSL progression (importance values: 0.191(0.177-0.204), 0.218(0.207-0.228)) in the ANN analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Cartilage volumes (both at baseline and their change during the initial 24 months) in the lateral femoral plate were predictive of medial JSL progression.

KEY POINTS

• Baseline lateral femoral cartilage volume is directly associated with medial JSL progression. • 24-month lateral femoral cartilage loss is inversely associated with medial JSL progression. • Lateral femoral cartilage volume is most important in association with medial JSL progression.

Brief Report: Cartilage Thickness Change as an Imaging Biomarker of Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: Data From the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of cartilage thickness change over 24 months, as determined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), with knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression at 24-48 months.

METHODS

This nested case-control study included 600 knees with a baseline Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grade of 1-3 from 600 Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants. Case knees (n = 194) had both medial tibiofemoral radiographic joint space loss (≥0.7 mm) and a persistent increase in the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain score (≥9 on a 0-100 scale) 24-48 months from baseline. Control knees (n = 406) included 200 with neither radiographic nor pain progression, 103 with radiographic progression only, and 103 with pain progression only. Medial and lateral femorotibial cartilage was segmented from sagittal 3T MRIs at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of change in cartilage thickness, with a focus on the central medial femorotibial compartment, and OA progression.

RESULTS

Central medial femorotibial compartment thickness loss was significantly associated with case status, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.6-2.3) (P < 0.0001). Association with case status reached P < 0.05 for both the central femur (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1.5-2.2]) and the central tibia (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1.3-1.9]). Lateral femorotibial compartment cartilage thickness loss, in contrast, was not significantly associated with case status. A reduction in central medial femorotibial compartment cartilage thickness was strongly associated with radiographic progression (OR 4.0 [95% CI 2.9-5.3]; P < 0.0001) and only weakly associated with pain progression (OR 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.6]; P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that loss of medial femorotibial cartilage thickness over 24 months is associated with the combination of radiographic and pain progression in the knee, with a stronger association for radiographic progression.

The relationship between smoking and knee osteoarthritis in the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the extent that smoking history is associated with symptoms and disease progression among individuals with radiographically confirmed knee Osteoarthritis (OA).

METHOD

Both cross-sectional (baseline) and longitudinal studies employed data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) (n = 2250 participants). Smoking history was assessed at baseline with 44% current or former smokers. The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) was used to measure knee pain, stiffness, and physical function. Disease progression was measured using joint space width (JSW). We used adjusted multivariable linear models to examine the relationship between smoking status and exposure in pack years (PY) with symptoms and JSW at baseline. Changes in symptoms and JSW over time were further assessed.

RESULTS

In cross-sectional analyses, compared to never-smokers high PY (≥15 PY) was associated with slightly greater pain (beta 0.36, 95% CI: 0.01-0.71) and stiffness (beta 0.20, 95% CI: 0.03-0.37); and low PY (<15 PY) was associated with better JSW (beta 0.15, 95% CI: 0.02-0.28). Current smoking was associated with greater pain (beta 0.59, 95% CI: 0.04-1.15) compared to never-smokers. These associations were not confirmed in the longitudinal study. Longitudinally, no associations were found between high or low PY or baseline smoking status with changes in symptoms (at 72 months) or JSW (at 48 months).

CONCLUSION

Cross-sectional findings are likely due residual confounding. The more robust longitudinal analysis found no associations between smoking status and symptoms or JSW. Long-term smoking provides no benefits to knee OA patients while exposing them to other well-documented serious health risks.

Recommendations for an update of the 2010 European regulatory guideline on clinical investigation of medicinal products used in the treatment of osteoarthritis and reflections about related clinically relevant outcomes: expert consensus statement

OBJECTIVE

The European Society on Clinical and Economic aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (ESCEO) organised a working group to evaluate the need for updating the current European guideline on clinical investigation of drugs used in the treatment of osteoarthritis (OA).

DESIGN

Areas of potential attention were identified and the need for modifications, update or clarification was examined. Proposals were then developed based on literature reviews and through a consensus process.

RESULTS

It was agreed that the current guideline overall still reflects the current knowledge in OA, although two possible modifications were identified. The first relates to the number and timing of measurements required as primary endpoints during clinical trials of symptom-relieving drugs, either drugs with rapid onset of action or slow acting drugs. The suggested modifications are intended to take into consideration the time related clinical need and expected time response to these drugs - i.e., a more early effect for the first category in addition to the maintenance of effect, a more continuous benefit over the long-term for the latter - in the timing of assessments. Secondly, values above which a benefit over placebo should be considered clinically relevant were considered. Based on literature reviews, the most consensual values were determined for primary endpoints of both symptom-relieving drugs (i.e., pain intensity on a visual analogue scale (VAS)) and disease-modifying drugs (i.e., radiographic joint-space narrowing).

CONCLUSIONS

This working document might be considered by the European regulatory authorities in a future update of the guideline for the registration of drugs in OA.

Quantitative 3D analysis of bone in hip osteoarthritis using clinical computed tomography

Objective

To assess the relationship between proximal femoral cortical bone thickness and radiological hip osteoarthritis using quantitative 3D analysis of clinical computed tomography (CT) data.

Methods

Image analysis was performed on clinical CT imaging data from 203 female volunteers with a technique called cortical bone mapping (CBM). Colour thickness maps were created for each proximal femur. Statistical parametric mapping was performed to identify statistically significant differences in cortical bone thickness that corresponded with the severity of radiological hip osteoarthritis. Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L) grade, minimum joint space width (JSW) and a novel CT-based osteophyte score were also blindly assessed from the CT data.

Results

For each increase in K&L grade, cortical thickness increased by up to 25 % in distinct areas of the superolateral femoral head–neck junction and superior subchondral bone plate. For increasing severity of CT osteophytes, the increase in cortical thickness was more circumferential, involving a wider portion of the head–neck junction, with up to a 7 % increase in cortical thickness per increment in score. Results were not significant for minimum JSW.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that quantitative 3D analysis of the proximal femur can identify changes in cortical bone thickness relevant to structural hip osteoarthritis.

Key Points

• CT is being increasingly used to assess bony involvement in osteoarthritis

• CBM provides accurate and reliable quantitative analysis of cortical bone thickness

• Cortical bone is thicker at the superior femoral head–neck with worse osteoarthritis

• Regions of increased thickness co-locate with impingement and osteophyte formation

• Quantitative 3D bone analysis could enable clinical disease prediction and therapy development

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00330-015-4048-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.