Who believes in conspiracy theories? A meta-analysis on personality correlates

Insight in the Conspiracist's Mind

Academic AbstractThe motto of the conspiracist, "Do your own research," may seem ludicrous to scientists. Indeed, it is often dismissed as a mere rhetorical device that conspiracists use to give themselves the semblance of science. In this perspective paper, we explore the information-seeking activities ("research") that conspiracists do engage in. Drawing on the experimental psychology of aha experiences, we explain how these activities, as well as the epistemic experiences that precede (curiosity) or follow (insight or "aha" experiences) them, may play a crucial role in the appeal and development of conspiracy beliefs. Aha moments have properties that can be exploited by conspiracy theories, such as the potential for false but seemingly grounded conclusions. Finally, we hypothesize that the need for autonomous epistemic agency and discovery is universal but increases as people experience more uncertainty and/or feel epistemically excluded in society, hence linking it to existing literature on explaining conspiracy theories.

Thought contagion? Conspiracy beliefs boost paranoid thoughts

Conspiracy theories accusing specific groups of secret malevolent actions can foster a perception of the world as a dangerous place. In our research, we contend that both adherence and exposure to conspiracy beliefs can serve as a potential cause of certain psychological problems in the form of paranoid thoughts. This hypothesis was tested in three studies conducted among Polish and British participants. In Study 1 (longitudinal, N = 603), we found that conspiracy beliefs exerted a positive overtime effect on paranoid thoughts. Experimental studies 2 (N = 384) and 3 (N = 445), showed that being exposed to conspiracy theories (vs. control stimuli) heightened paranoid thoughts. In Study 3, we proposed a potential mechanism explaining this effect, according to which exposure to conspiracies increased paranoid thoughts via only negative intense emotions. Our work adds to the discussion on the consequences of conspiracy beliefs and has implications for mental health research, underlining the importance of designing interventions limiting the adverse effects of conspiracy beliefs.

Political polarization may affect attitudes towards vaccination. An analysis based on the European Social Survey data from 23 countries

BACKGROUND

Political polarization may result in increased confirmation bias, strengthening of disinformation mechanisms or policy distortion. This raises the question whether it may influence the vaccination programmes. This study investigates the relationship between the level of political polarization and coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine behaviour and vaccine acceptance.

METHODS

In our study, we use the Partisan Polarization Index (PPI). The PPI aims to measure the gap between satisfaction with the government expressed by supporters of the ruling parties and that expressed by supporters of the opposition parties. We use the data from the latest round of the European Social Service from 23 countries. The effect of the PPI on the variability of vaccination declarations and intent across countries was verified based on a linear regression model.

RESULTS

The linear regression score for 23 countries revealed a statistically significant relationship between the vaccination variable and the level of political polarization. The model explains the variability in the vaccination levels based on the PPI in a given country at 38.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Political polarization can contribute to shaping negative attitudes towards vaccination through policy distortion, undermining the effectiveness of compliance against regulation, undermining trust in science and increasing the public's susceptibility to conspiracy theories.

Experimental manipulation of uncanny feeling does not increase adherence to conspiracy theories

Research over the past decade has shown that endorsement of conspiracy theories (CTs) is shaped by motivated cognition processes. Accordingly, CTs are theorized to stem from compensatory processes, as individuals attempt to cope with existential threats (i.e., uncertainty, loss of control). Based on the meaning maintenance model, we investigated whether this compensatory effect could follow from epistemic threats in domains unrelated to CTs in the form of uncanniness. Feelings of uncanniness were experimentally manipulated through exposure to absurdist art and literature in a set of five studies, followed by a mini meta-analysis (Ntotal  = 1,041). We conducted a final, preregistered sixth study (N = 266) manipulating uncanniness through autobiographical recall. No robust evidence for a compensatory effect was found. We discussed methodological and conceptual limitations of the meaning maintenance model, as well as boundary conditions under which conspiracy theories could have a compensatory function to deal with threats.

Curious about threats: Morbid curiosity and interest in conspiracy theories in US adults

Conspiracy theories allege secret plots between two or more powerful actors to achieve an outcome, sometimes explaining important events or proposing alternative understandings of reality in opposition to mainstream accounts, and commonly highlight the threat presented by the plot and its conspirators. Research in psychology proposes that belief in conspiracy theories is motivated by a desire to understand threats and is predicted by increased anxiety. Morbid curiosity describes the tendency to seek out information about threatening or dangerous situations and is associated with an interest in threat-related entertainment and increased anxiety. Across three studies, we investigated the relationship between morbid curiosity and conspiracy theories in US-based samples. We found that higher trait morbid curiosity was associated with higher general conspiracist beliefs (Study 1) and the perceived threat of conspiratorial explanations of events (Study 2). Using a behavioural choice paradigm, we found that participants who chose to investigate morbidly curious stimuli were more likely to choose to learn about conspiratorial explanations for events (Study 3). Greater curiosity about the minds of dangerous people was consistently the strongest predictor of conspiratorial ideation and interest. These results suggest that morbid curiosity is an important but hitherto unstudied predictor of conspiratorial interest and belief.

To trust or not to trust in the thrall of the COVID-19 pandemic: Conspiracy endorsement and the role of adverse childhood experiences, epistemic trust, and personality functioning

RATIONALE

Conspiracy endorsement is a public health challenge for the successful containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. While usually considered a societal phenomenon, little is known about the equally important developmental backdrops and personality characteristics like mistrust that render an individual prone to conspiracy endorsement. There is a growing body of evidence implying a detrimental role of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) - a highly prevalent developmental burden - in the development of epistemic trust and personality functioning. This study aimed to investigate the association between ACEs and conspiracy endorsement in the general population, specifically questioning a mediating role of epistemic trust and personality functioning.

METHODS

Based on cross-sectional data from a representative German survey collected during the COVID-19 pandemic (N = 2501), we conducted structural equation modelling (SEM) where personality functioning (OPD-SQS) and epistemic trust (ETMCQ) were included as mediators of the association between ACEs and conspiracy endorsement. Bootstrapped confidence intervals (5000 samples, 95%-CI) are presented for all paths.

RESULTS

ACEs were significantly associated with conspiracy endorsement (β = 0.25, p < 0.001) and explained 6% of its variance. Adding epistemic trust and personality functioning as mediators increased the explained variance of conspiracy endorsement to 19% while the direct association between ACEs and conspiracy endorsement was diminished (β = 0.12, p < 0.001), indicating an indirect effect of personality functioning and epistemic trust in the association between ACEs and conspiracy endorsement. Fit indices confirmed good model fit.

CONCLUSIONS

Establishing an association between ACEs and conspiracy endorsement further increases the evidence for early childhood adversities' far-reaching and detrimental effects. By including epistemic trust and personality functioning, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms in the way that ACEs may be associated with conspiracy endorsement.

Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs Scale: Validation and Measurement Invariance in a Youth Sample

The Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs Scale (VCBS) is a widely used measure of conspiracy beliefs about vaccines, but evidence of its validity and measurement invariance, especially in youth samples, is still largely missing. The present study examined VCBS scores' factor structure, measurement invariance, convergent and discriminant validity, and incremental predictive validity. A sample of 803 Serbian youths (age range 15-24; 59.2% females) was recruited for the study. A modified single-factor model of the VCBS was supported, and showed evidence of full scalar invariance across gender, age, vaccination status, and personal history of COVID-19. Evidence of the VCBS scores' convergent and discriminant validity was obtained by examining associations with general conspiracy beliefs, vaccination attitudes, vaccination knowledge, intentions to get vaccinated against COVID-19, paranoia worries, fear of injections and blood draws, importance of God, self-rated health, and self-rated family's financial situation. The VCBS scores predicted a unique variance in the intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19, over and above vaccination attitudes and vaccination knowledge. The results suggest that the VCBS is a valid measure of vaccine conspiracy beliefs in youth.

Validating a German Version of the Conspiracy Mentality Scale (CMS)

Increased scientific interest in conspiracy beliefs raises the need for validated individual difference measures in the general tendency to believe in conspiracy theories, otherwise referred to as conspiracy mentality. In this article, we present a German language version of the Conspiracy Mentality Scale (CMS). A representative sample of German-speaking Swiss residents (N = 468) filled in the scale, along with measures of trust in several sources of information, need for social validation, compliance with Covid-19 preventive measures, perceived severity of the pandemic, loneliness, functional literacy and interpersonal conflict. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the two-dimensional structure of the original scale. Positive correlations between conspiracy theory ideation and trust in friends and the need for social validation on the one hand, and negative correlations with trust in scientific publications and scientific experts, perceived severity of the pandemic and functional literacy on the other hand supported construct validity. We conclude that our German language version of the scale is a valid measure of conspiracy theory ideation and skepticism.

Moral foundations are better predictors of belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories than the Big Five personality traits

Upon the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, various conspiracy theories regarding the virus proliferated in the social media. This study focused on the sociodemographic, personality, and moral predictors of these beliefs. More specifically, we asked whether moral values predict belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories over and above sociodemographic variables and the Big Five personality traits. According to Moral Foundations Theory, five cross-cultural moral foundations are more broadly categorized under individualizing (Care & Fairness) and binding (Loyalty, Authority, & Sanctity) foundations. A sixth moral foundation was Liberty which we included along with binding and individualizing foundations. Participants were 227 Iranians (mean age = 31.43, SD = 12.61, 75.3% female) who responded to Moral Foundations Questionnaire and Liberty items, a range of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs, and the 10-Item Personality Measure of the Big Five. Among demographic variables, religiosity and socioeconomic status were the strongest determinants of conspiracy beliefs regarding the origin of Coronavirus. Among the Big Five, only extraversion predicted these beliefs in a positive direction. Moral foundations, most notably Authority and Sanctity, showed incremental predictive power over both demographic variables and the Big Five personality traits. Findings are discussed in light of the role of social media in dissemination of conspiracy beliefs regarding the pandemic. They point to the more relevance of moral foundations, particularly binding foundations, than the Big Five in the context of pandemic-related conspiracy beliefs, and add to the literature on the unique contribution of moral foundations to socio-political attitudes across cultures.

Narcissistic susceptibility to conspiracy beliefs exaggerated by education, reduced by cognitive reflection

Conspiracy theories are alternate viewpoints of provided explanations; sensational stories revolving around small groups exerting control for nefarious reasons. Recent events and research have outlined myriad negative social and personal outcomes for those who endorse them. Prior research suggests several predictors of susceptibility to conspiracy theories, including narcissistic personality traits (grandiosity, need for uniqueness), cognitive processes (critical thinking, confirmation bias) and lack of education. The aim of the current paper was to explore how facets of narcissism predict susceptibility to conspiracy theories. It was expected that narcissism would be a positive predictor, but education and cognitive reflection would act as protective factors, reducing this effect. Study one utilized an international survey (N = 323) to investigate the role of education as a protective tool in the relationship between narcissistic traits and conspiratorial beliefs. Support was found for the hypotheses that individuals with higher levels of grandiosity, vulnerable narcissism, a strive for uniqueness, and a strive for supremacy predicted higher levels of conspiracy endorsement. Higher education and STEM education were associated with lower levels of conspiracy endorsement, however all significant moderations indicated that for narcissistic individuals, education increased their likelihood of adopting conspiracy beliefs, contrary to expectation. To investigate this further, study two analyzed a large-scale publicly available dataset (N = 51,404) to assess the relationship between narcissism, critical thinking skills (specifically cognitive reflection) and conspiracy beliefs pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic. As expected, analysis found narcissism and poor cognitive reflection (intuitive thinking) as predictors of conspiracy beliefs. Higher levels of cognitive reflection were found to be protective, moderating and reducing the impact of narcissism on endorsement of conspiracy theories. The findings suggest that cognitive reflection, but not education protect against narcissistic conspiracy belief. Moreover, that cognitive reflection may have a lessened effect against conspiracy theories adopted for social or ideological reasons. These findings improve understanding of both the role and limitations of education/critical thinking skills as protective factors against conspiracy theory endorsement.

Social Worldviews Predict the General Factor of Paranormal and Generic Conspiracist Beliefs

Even though wide access to any warranted information in the modern age, the problem of unfounded belief is still relevant, since these beliefs often lead to negative consequences (e.g., vaccination refusal, homeopathic treatment, etc.). The aim of this study was testing the relationship of social worldviews with paranormal beliefs and conspiracy beliefs. We assumed dimensionality hypothesis based on functional standpoint that there should be a general factor (underlying all the domains of paranormal beliefs and generic conspiracist beliefs), which has associations with the social worldviews as well. Derived our analysis from the survey of 228 participants (M_age = 30.6, SD = 11.7), we found that (a) the structure of paranormal and generic conspiracist beliefs can be described by a bifactor model; (b) the general factor of paranormal and generic conspiracist beliefs in the bifactor model was positively associated with global belief in just world and dangerous worldview; (c) paranormal beliefs were positively associated with global belief in just world and negatively associated with competitive worldview; (d) generic conspiracist beliefs were positively associated with dangerous worldview, competitive worldview, and zero-sum game belief; (e) contrary to our hypotheses, there was no evidence for any negative association of paranormal beliefs with dangerous worldview or zero-sum game belief and for any negative association of generic conspiracist beliefs with global belief in just world. We claim that the unfounded beliefs can be of some functional nature, demonstrating a connection with social worldviews, which opens up new perspectives for considering this problem within the framework of social psychology.

The role of conspiracy mindset in reducing support for child vaccination for COVID-19 in the United States

Introduction

We have previously proposed and tested a model that predicts reluctance to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US from embrace of a conspiracy mindset that distrusts the federal health agencies of the US government and regards their intentions as malevolent. In this study, we tested the model's ability to predict adult support for COVID vaccination of children ages 5-11 after the vaccine was approved for this age group.

Methods

Relying on a national panel that was established in April 2021 (N = 1941) and followed until March of 2022, we examined the relation between conspiratorial thinking measured at baseline and belief in misinformation and conspiracies about COVID vaccines, trust in various health authorities, perceived risk of COVID to children, and belief in conspiracy theories about the pandemic's origin and impact. In addition, we tested a structural equation model (SEM) in which conspiracy mindset predicted adult support for childhood vaccination for COVID in January and March of 2022 as well as the adults own vaccination status and their willingness to recommend vaccinating children against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR).

Results

The model accounted for 76% of the variance in support for childhood vaccination for COVID-19; the relation between the mindset and support for vaccination was entirely mediated by baseline assessments of misinformation, trust, risk, and acceptance of pandemic conspiracy theories.

Discussion

The SEM replicated the prior test of the model, indicating that a conspiracy mindset present among at least 17% of the panel underlies their resistance to vaccinate both themselves and children. Efforts to counteract the mindset will likely require the intervention of trusted spokespersons who can overcome the skepticism inherent in conspiratorial thinking about the government and its health-related agencies' recommendations for a particular vaccine.

A latent profile analysis of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: Associations with thinking styles, mistrust, socio-political control, need for closure and verbal intelligence

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, attention has been drawn to conspiracy theories. To date, research has largely examined commonalities in conspiracy theory belief, however it is important to identify where there may be notable differences. The aim of the present research was first to distinguish between typologies of COVID-19 conspiracy belief and explore demographic, social cognitive factors associated with these beliefs. Secondly, we aimed to examine the effects of such beliefs on adherence to government health guidelines. Participants (N = 319) rated well known COVID-19 conspiracy theories, completing measures of thinking style, socio-political control, mistrust, verbal intelligence, need for closure and demographic information. Participants also rated the extent to which they followed government health guidelines. Latent profile analysis suggests three profiles of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs with low, moderate, and high COVID conspiracy belief profiles and successively stronger endorsement on all but one of the COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Those holding stronger COVID-19 conspiracy theory beliefs are more likely to reason emotively, feel less socio-political control, mistrust others, have lower verbal ability and adhere less to COVID-19 guidelines. The social and health implications of these findings are discussed.

Spirituality is associated with Covid-19 vaccination scepticism

Vaccine scepticism poses a significant global health risk, which has again become clear during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Previous research has identified spirituality as an important contributor to general vaccine scepticism. In the present manuscript, we assessed whether self-identified spirituality similarly contributes to scepticism towards Covid-19 vaccines, vaccine uptake, and indecisiveness in intention to be vaccinated. We conducted three studies online in the UK in late 2020, early 2021, and the summer 2021. In Studies 1 and 2 (N = 585), as expected, individuals who strongly identified as spiritual were more sceptical about Covid-19 vaccines. This association was explained by low faith in science, but not by conspiracy beliefs. Importantly, among the vaccinated participants, those who were more spiritual were more indecisive to get a Covid-19 vaccine. Using structural equation modelling (SEM), we further found that spirituality directly predicted lower likelihood of being vaccinated against Covid-19 (Study 3, N = 456). We also identified low science literacy as an additional predictor of Covid-19 scepticism, but not self-reported vaccine uptake. To conclude, spiritual beliefs are an important factor to consider when aiming to increase understanding of vaccine-related science scepticism and vaccination rejection.

Individual, intergroup and nation-level influences on belief in conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories are part of mainstream public life, with the potential to undermine governments, promote racism, ignite extremism and threaten public health efforts. Psychological research on conspiracy theories is booming, with more than half of the academic articles on the topic published since 2019. In this Review, we synthesize the literature with an eye to understanding the psychological factors that shape willingness to believe conspiracy theories. We begin at the individual level, examining the cognitive, clinical, motivational, personality and developmental factors that predispose people to believe conspiracy theories. Drawing on insights from social and evolutionary psychology, we then review research examining conspiracy theories as an intergroup phenomenon that reflects and reinforces societal fault lines. Finally, we examine how conspiracy theories are shaped by the economic, political, cultural and socio-historical contexts at the national level. This multilevel approach offers a deep and broad insight into conspiracist thinking that increases understanding of the problem and offers potential solutions.

A continuous time meta-analysis of the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and individual preventive behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

In several longitudinal studies, reduced willingness to show COVID-19-related preventive behavior (e.g., wearing masks, social distancing) has been partially attributed to misinformation and conspiracy beliefs. However, there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the strength of the relationship and whether the negative relationship exists in both directions (reciprocal effects). One explanation of the heterogeneity pertains to the fact that the time interval between consecutive measurement occasions varies (e.g., 1 month, 3 months) both between and within studies. Therefore, a continuous time meta-analysis based on longitudinal studies was conducted. This approach enables one to examine how the strength of the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and COVID-19 preventive behavior depends on the time interval. In total, 1035 correlations were coded for 17 samples (N = 16,350). The results for both the full set of studies and a subset consisting of 13 studies corroborated the existence of reciprocal effects. Furthermore, there was some evidence of publication bias. The largest cross-lagged effects were observed between 3 and 6 months, which can inform decision-makers and researchers when carrying out interventions or designing studies examining the consequences of new conspiracy theories.

Validation of the Spanish Version of the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale

Theorists acknowledge that conspiracy beliefs represent an established psychological construct. The study of conspiracy beliefs is important because allied ideation potentially influences everyday attitudes and behaviors across a range of domains (i.e., cognitive, social, cross-cultural, and political psychology). In this article, we analyze the internal structure and construct validity of the Spanish adaptation of the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale (GCBS). Correlational and confirmatory factor analyses using an international sample of 732 Spanish-speakers revealed a five-factor structure equivalent to the original instrument. Convergent validity was demonstrated using educational level, political orientation, need for uniqueness, and four social axioms (social cynicism, religiosity, reward for application, and fate control). In comparison to two English samples (N = 794 and N = 421), the adaptation demonstrated satisfactory, although restricted, levels of invariance. Accordingly, findings support the use of this translated form of the GCBS with Spanish speakers.