Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies

Comparative Computational Modeling of the Bat and Human Immune Response to Viral Infection with the Comparative Biology Immune Agent Based Model

Given the impact of pandemics due to viruses of bat origin, there is increasing interest in comparative investigation into the differences between bat and human immune responses. The practice of comparative biology can be enhanced by computational methods used for dynamic knowledge representation to visualize and interrogate the putative differences between the two systems. We present an agent based model that encompasses and bridges differences between bat and human responses to viral infection: the comparative biology immune agent based model, or CBIABM. The CBIABM examines differences in innate immune mechanisms between bats and humans, specifically regarding inflammasome activity and type 1 interferon dynamics, in terms of tolerance to viral infection. Simulation experiments with the CBIABM demonstrate the efficacy of bat-related features in conferring viral tolerance and also suggest a crucial role for endothelial inflammasome activity as a mechanism for bat systemic viral tolerance and affecting the severity of disease in human viral infections. We hope that this initial study will inspire additional comparative modeling projects to link, compare, and contrast immunological functions shared across different species, and in so doing, provide insight and aid in preparation for future viral pandemics of zoonotic origin.

Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China

BACKGROUND

The mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030.

METHODS

We reviewed the epidemiology of human deaths from rabies in mainland China from 2004 to 2018. We identified high risk regions, age and occupational groups, and used a continuous deterministic susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to explore seasonal rabies prevalence in different human populations. The SEIR model was used to simulate the data of human deaths from rabies reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). We calculated the relative transmission intensity of rabies from canines to different human groups, and they provided a reliable epidemiological basis for further control and prevention of human rabies.

RESULTS

Results showed that human deaths from rabies exhibited regional differences and seasonal characteristics in mainland China. The annual human death from rabies in different regions, age groups and occupational groups decreased steadily across time. Nevertheless, the decreasing rates and the calculated R0s of canines of various human groups were different. The transmission intensity of rabies from canines to human populations was the highest in the central regions of China, in people over 45 years old, and in farmers.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the annual cases of human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily since 2007, the proportion of human deaths from rabies varies with region, age, gender, and occupation. Further enhancement of public awareness and immunization status in high-risk population groups and blocking the transmission routes of rabies from canines to humans are necessary. The concept of One Health should be abided and human, animal, and environmental health should be considered simultaneously to achieve the goal of eradicating human rabies before 2030.

A review of mechanistic models of viral dynamics in bat reservoirs for zoonotic disease

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus with suspected bat origins, highlights a critical need for heightened understanding of the mechanisms by which bats maintain potentially zoonotic viruses at the population level and transmit these pathogens across species. We review mechanistic models, which test hypotheses of the transmission dynamics that underpin viral maintenance in bat systems. A search of the literature identified only twenty-five mechanistic models of bat-virus systems published to date, derived from twenty-three original studies. Most models focused on rabies and related lyssaviruses (eleven), followed by Ebola-like filoviruses (seven), Hendra and Nipah-like henipaviruses (five), and coronaviruses (two). The vast majority of studies has modelled bat virus transmission dynamics at the population level, though a few nested within-host models of viral pathogenesis in population-level frameworks, and one study focused on purely within-host dynamics. Population-level studies described bat virus systems from every continent but Antarctica, though most were concentrated in North America and Africa; indeed, only one simulation model with no associated data was derived from an Asian bat-virus system. In fact, of the twenty-five models identified, only ten population-level models were fitted to data - emphasizing an overall dearth of empirically derived epidemiological inference in bat virus systems. Within the data fitted subset, the vast majority of models were fitted to serological data only, highlighting extensive uncertainty in our understanding of the transmission status of a wild bat. Here, we discuss similarities and differences in the approach and findings of previously published bat virus models and make recommendations for improvement in future work.

Spatiotemporal epidemic models for rabies among animals

Rabies is a serious concern to public health and wildlife management worldwide. Over the last three decades, various mathematical models have been proposed to study the transmission dynamics of rabies. In this paper we provide a mini-review on some reaction-diffusion models describing the spatial spread of rabies among animals. More specifically, we introduce the susceptible-exposed-infectious models for the spatial transmission of rabies among foxes (Murray et al., 1986), the spatiotemporal epidemic model for rabies among raccoons (Neilan and Lenhart, 2011), the diffusive rabies model for skunk and bat interactions (Bonchering et al., 2012), and the reaction-diffusion model for rabies among dogs (Zhang et al., 2012). Numerical simulations on the spatiotemporal dynamics of these models from these papers are presented.

Bat-borne rabies in Latin America

The situation of rabies in America is complex: rabies in dogs has decreased dramatically, but bats are increasingly recognized as natural reservoirs of other rabies variants. Here, bat species known to be rabies-positive with different antigenic variants, are summarized in relation to bat conservation status across Latin America. Rabies virus is widespread in Latin American bat species, 22.5%⁷⁵ of bat species have been confirmed as rabies-positive. Most bat species found rabies positive are classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature as “Least Concern”. According to diet type, insectivorous bats had the most species known as rabies reservoirs, while in proportion hematophagous bats were the most important. Research at coarse spatial scales must strive to understand rabies ecology; basic information on distribution and population dynamics of many Latin American and Caribbean bat species is needed; and detailed information on effects of landscape change in driving bat-borne rabies outbreaks remains unassessed. Finally, integrated approaches including public health, ecology, and conservation biology are needed to understand and prevent emergent diseases in bats.

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Bats, emerging infectious diseases, and the rabies paradigm revisited

The significance of bats as sources of emerging infectious diseases has been increasingly appreciated, and new data have been accumulated rapidly during recent years. For some emerging pathogens the bat origin has been confirmed (such as lyssaviruses, henipaviruses, coronaviruses), for other it has been suggested (filoviruses). Several recently identified viruses remain to be ‘orphan’ but have a potential for further emergence (such as Tioman, Menangle, and Pulau viruses). In the present review we summarize information on major bat-associated emerging infections and discuss specific characteristics of bats as carriers of pathogens (from evolutionary, ecological, and immunological positions). We also discuss drivers and forces of an infectious disease emergence and describe various existing and potential approaches for control and prevention of such infections at individual, populational, and societal levels.

Host and viral ecology determine bat rabies seasonality and maintenance

Rabies is an acute viral infection that is typically fatal. Most rabies modeling has focused on disease dynamics and control within terrestrial mammals (e.g., raccoons and foxes). As such, rabies in bats has been largely neglected until recently. Because bats have been implicated as natural reservoirs for several emerging zoonotic viruses, including SARS-like corona viruses, henipaviruses, and lyssaviruses, understanding how pathogens are maintained within a population becomes vital. Unfortunately, little is known about maintenance mechanisms for any pathogen in bat populations. We present a mathematical model parameterized with unique data from an extensive study of rabies in a Colorado population of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) to elucidate general maintenance mechanisms. We propose that life history patterns of many species of temperate-zone bats, coupled with sufficiently long incubation periods, allows for rabies virus maintenance. Seasonal variability in bat mortality rates, specifically low mortality during hibernation, allows long-term bat population viability. Within viable bat populations, sufficiently long incubation periods allow enough infected individuals to enter hibernation and survive until the following year, and hence avoid an epizootic fadeout of rabies virus. We hypothesize that the slowing effects of hibernation on metabolic and viral activity maintains infected individuals and their pathogens until susceptibles from the annual birth pulse become infected and continue the cycle. This research provides a context to explore similar host ecology and viral dynamics that may explain seasonal patterns and maintenance of other bat-borne diseases.

Ecology of rabies virus exposure in colonies of Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) at natural and man-made roosts in Texas

Previous studies have investigated rabies virus (RABV) epizootiology in Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) in natural cave roosts. However, little is known about geographic variation in RABV exposure, or if the use of man-made roosts by this species affects enzootic RABV infection dynamics within colonies. We sampled rabies viral neutralizing antibodies in bats at three bridge and three cave roosts at multiple time points during the reproductive season to investigate temporal and roost variation in RABV exposure. We report seropositive bats in all age and sex classes with minimal geographic variation in RABV seroprevalence among Brazilian free-tailed bat colonies in south-central Texas. While roost type was not a significant predictor of RABV seroprevalence, it was significantly associated with seasonal fluctuations, suggesting patterns of exposure that differ between roosts. Temporal patterns suggest increased RABV seroprevalence after parturition in cave colonies, potentially related to an influx of susceptible young, in contrast to more uniform seroprevalence in bridge colonies. This study highlights the importance of life history and roost ecology in understanding patterns of RABV seroprevalence in colonies of the Brazilian free-tailed bat.

Effects of immune system diversity and physical variation of immunotypic mixing on the dynamics of rabies in bats

The ecology and life history of rabies viruses in bats suggest a need for an integrated modelling treatment that extends beyond traditional epidemiological approaches. We modify our adaptive modelling approach to investigate the effects of immune system structure and immunological mixing events on the disease profile of the bat colony and subsequently on the dynamics of rabies viruses in bats. Our theoretical framework, which is based on individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge and virus-specific disease mechanisms, integrates the individual components to provide information about the disease structure and the demographic composition of the bat colony. We focus on the changes in dynamics at the population level due to two processes: (1) immunological diversity in a biological process, reproduction, and (2) immunological diversity in a physical-physiological process, migration. The results suggest that immunotypic mixing plays a critical role in the disease progression within populations and it is an important factor in determining the persistence of rabies in exposed bat colonies.