The Greening of the Sahara: Past Changes and Future Implications

From hunter-gatherers to food producers: New dental insights into the Nile Valley population history (Late Paleolithic-Neolithic)

OBJECTIVES

This study presents biological affinities between the last hunter-fisher-gatherers and first food-producing societies from the Nile Valley. We investigate odontometric and dental tissue proportion changes between these populations from the Middle Nile Valley and acknowledge the biological processes behind them.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Dental remains of 329 individuals from Nubia and Central Sudan that date from the Late Pleistocene to the mid-Holocene are studied. Using 3D imaging techniques, we investigated outer and inner metric aspects of upper central incisors, and first and second upper molars.

RESULTS

Late Paleolithic and Mesolithic foragers display homogeneous crown dimensions, dental tissue proportions, and enamel thickness distribution. This contrasts with Neolithic trends for significant differences from earlier samples on inner and outer aspects. Finally, within the Neolithic sample differences are found between Nubian and Central Sudanese sites.

DISCUSSION

Substantial dental variation appears to have occurred around 6000 bce in the Nile Valley, coinciding with the emergence of food-producing societies in the region. Archeological and biological records suggest little differences in dietary habits and dental health during this transition. Furthermore, the substantial variations identified here would have happened in an extremely short time, a few centuries at most. This does not support in situ diet-related adaptation. Rather, we suggest these data are consistent with some level of population discontinuity between the Mesolithic and Neolithic samples considered here. Complex settlement processes could also explain the differences between Nubia and Central Sudan, and with previous results based on nonmetric traits.

Rise in water vapour driven by moisture transport facilitates water availability for the greening of global deserts

There are substantial changes in the global drylands owing to climate change and anthropogenic activities. However, this aspect is not adequately explored in the context of recent climate change and global warming. Therefore, we analyse the role of water vapour in driving precipitation and corresponding surface greenness in the global deserts using satellite measurements. Statistical techniques such as partial correlation and Randon Forest (RF) are employed to understand the relationship among the physical processes that drive water availability for desert greening. Our analysis shows that water vapour is relatively lower (<25 kg/m2) in the deserts than rest of the globe, but comparable to the polar and high-altitude regions. Among the deserts, Thar (25 kg/m2) and Sahara (15-20 kg/m2) show higher water vapour, in contrast to the American and Gobi deserts (<10 kg/m2). Trajectory analysis reveals that water vapour transport from the south Atlantic Ocean is very high (90 kg/m/s) to the Sahel region of Sahara. Similarly, water vapour comes from Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean to Thar, mainly during Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). There is an increase in water vapour driven by a rise in moisture transport to the American, Arabian, Thar and Sub-Sahara deserts during the period 2003-2020. The rise in moisture transport and associated water vapour in the deserts enhance water availability through precipitation and soil moisture, influencing surface greenness, as illustrated by the partial correlation and RF analyses. Enhanced water vapour and water availability, together with anthropogenic activities such as agriculture and afforestation in the deserts drive greening, which is more pronounced in Thar and Sub-Sahara. This study, thus, reveals the role of atmospheric moisture in regulating the terrestrial water availability and surface greenness in the extreme arid regions on the earth.

Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s)

The transition from a humid green Sahara to today's hyperarid conditions in northern Africa ~5.5 thousand years ago shows the dramatic environmental change to which human societies were exposed and had to adapt to. In this work, we show that in the 620,000-year environmental record from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift, with its decadal resolution, this one thousand year long transition is particularly well documented, along with 20-80 year long droughts, recurring every ~160 years, as possible early warnings. Together with events of extreme wetness at the end of the transition, these droughts form a pronounced climate "flickering", which can be simulated in climate models and is also present in earlier climate transitions in the Chew Bahir environmental record, indicating that transitions with flickering are characteristic of this region.

Changes in vegetation-water response in the Sahel-Sudan during recent decades

Study region

The Africa Sahel-Sudan region, defined by annual rainfall between 150 and 1200 mm.

Study focus

Understanding the mechanism of vegetation response to water availability could help mitigate the potential adverse effects of climate change on global dryland ecosystems. In the Sahel-Sudan region, spatio-temporal changes and drivers of the vegetation-water response remain unclear. This study employs long-term satellite water and vegetation products as proxies of water availability and vegetation productivity to analyze changes in vegetation-water sensitivity and the cumulative effect duration (CED) representing a measure of the legacy effect of the impact of water constraints on vegetation. A random forest model was subsequently used to analyze potential climatic drivers of the observed vegetation response.

New hydrological insights for the region

During 1982-2016 we found a significant decrease (p < 0.05) in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to water constraints in 26% of the Sahel-Sudan region, while 9% of the area showed a significantly increased sensitivity, mainly in the sub-humid zone. We further showed that CED significantly increased and decreased, respectively in around 9% of the study area in both cases. Our climatic driver attribution analysis suggested the existence of varying underlying mechanisms governing vegetation productivity in response to water deficit across the Sahel-Sudan dryland ecosystems. Our findings emphasize the need for diverse strategies in sustainable ecosystem management to effectively address these varying mechanisms.

Land surface conductance linked to precipitation: Co-evolution of vegetation and climate in Earth system models

Vegetation and precipitation are known to fundamentally influence each other. However, this interdependence is not fully represented in climate models because the characteristics of land surface (canopy) conductance to water vapor and CO2 are determined independently of precipitation. Working within a coupled atmosphere and land modelling framework (CAM6/CLM5; coupled Community Atmosphere Model v6/Community Land Model v5), we have developed a new theoretical approach to characterizing land surface conductance by explicitly linking its dynamic properties to local precipitation, a robust proxy for moisture available to vegetation. This will enable regional surface conductance characteristics to shift fluidly with climate change in simulations, consistent with general principles of co-evolution of vegetation and climate. Testing within the CAM6/CLM5 framework shows that climate simulations incorporating the new theory outperform current default configurations across several error metrics for core output variables when measured against observational data. In climate simulations for the end of this century the new, adaptive stomatal conductance scheme provides a revised prognosis for average and extreme temperatures over several large regions, with increased primary productivity through central and east Asia, and higher rainfall through North Africa and the Middle East. The new projections also reveal more frequent heatwaves than originally estimated for the south-eastern US and sub-Saharan Africa but less frequent heatwaves across east Europe and northeast Asia. These developments have implications for evaluating food security and risks from extreme temperatures in areas that are vulnerable to climate change.

The phylogeography of Middle Eastern tree frogs in Israel

Western Palearctic treefrogs of the genus Hyla provide an example of a morphologically and ecologically cryptic group. Up to three distinct Hyla species have been proposed as resident in Israel and this number has consistently been subject to taxonomical debates. Here, we analyzed 16S rRNA and COI gene fragments of 658 individuals sampled at 47 pools in nine regions across Israel and the West Bank in order to resolve the taxonomic status of Hyla frogs. We generated both Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenies, and constructed time-calibrated trees to provide an evolutionary and historical context of sequence variations. We further applied SAMOVA as well as Monmonier's maximum-difference algorithm to study the genetic structure among populations and to identify potential zones acting as barriers to gene flow across locations. Our results revealed two distinct haplogroups for each gene fragment, with 95% CI divergence times dated from 8.9-17.1 Mya (16S) and 7.1-23.6 Mya (COI), respectively. SAMOVA and barrier analyses partitioned the populations into three groups. Our results highlight that, while there are probably only two Hyla species in Israel, one population of one of the species might qualify as a separate evolutionarily significant unit. Our findings elucidate the taxonomic status of Hyla frogs in Israel and provide the basis for determining appropriate management and conservation priorities.

Unraveling phylogenetic relationships and species boundaries in the arid adapted Gerbillus rodents (Muridae: Gerbillinae) by RAD-seq data

Gerbillus is one of the most speciose genera among rodents, with ca. 51 recognized species. Previous attempts to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Gerbillus mainly relied on the mitochondrial cyt-b marker as a source of phylogenetic information. In this study, we utilize RAD-seq genomic data from 37 specimens representing 11 species to reconstruct the phylogenetic tree for Gerbillus, applying concatenation and coalescence methods. We identified four highly supported clades corresponding to the traditionally recognized subgenera: Dipodillus, Gerbillus, Hendecapleura and Monodia. Only two uncertain branches were detected in the resulting trees, with one leading to diversification of the main lineages in the genus, recognized by quartet sampling analysis as uncertain due to possible introgression. We also examined species boundaries for four pairs of sister taxa, including potentially new species from Morocco, using SNAPP. The results strongly supported a speciation model in which all taxa are treated as separate species. The dating analyses confirmed the Plio-Pleistocene diversification of the genus, with the uncertain branch coinciding with the beginning of aridification of the Sahara at the the Plio-Pleistocene boundary. This study aligns well with the earlier analyses based on the cyt-b marker, reaffirming its suitability as an adequate marker for estimating genetic diversity in Gerbillus.

North African humid periods over the past 800,000 years

The Sahara region has experienced periodic wet periods over the Quaternary and beyond. These North African Humid Periods (NAHPs) are astronomically paced by precession which controls the intensity of the African monsoon system. However, most climate models cannot reconcile the magnitude of these events and so the driving mechanisms remain poorly constrained. Here, we utilise a recently developed version of the HadCM3B coupled climate model that simulates 20 NAHPs over the past 800 kyr which have good agreement with NAHPs identified in proxy data. Our results show that precession determines NAHP pacing, but we identify that their amplitude is strongly linked to eccentricity via its control over ice sheet extent. During glacial periods, enhanced ice-albedo driven cooling suppresses NAHP amplitude at precession minima, when humid conditions would otherwise be expected. This highlights the importance of both precession and eccentricity, and the role of high latitude processes in determining the timing and amplitude of the NAHPs. This may have implications for the out of Africa dispersal of plants and animals throughout the Quaternary.

North African fox genomes show signatures of repeated introgression and adaptation to life in deserts

Elucidating the evolutionary process of animal adaptation to deserts is key to understanding adaptive responses to climate change. Here we generated 82 individual whole genomes of four fox species (genus Vulpes) inhabiting the Sahara Desert at different evolutionary times. We show that adaptation of new colonizing species to a hot arid environment has probably been facilitated by introgression and trans-species polymorphisms shared with older desert resident species, including a putatively adaptive 25 Mb genomic region. Scans for signatures of selection implicated genes affecting temperature perception, non-renal water loss and heat production in the recent adaptation of North African red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), after divergence from Eurasian populations approximately 78 thousand years ago. In the extreme desert specialists, Rueppell's fox (V. rueppellii) and fennec (V. zerda), we identified repeated signatures of selection in genes affecting renal water homeostasis supported by gene expression and physiological differences. Our study provides insights into the mechanisms and genetic underpinnings of a natural experiment of repeated adaptation to extreme conditions.

The spatiotemporal extent of the Green Sahara during the last glacial period

The Sahara Desert, one of today's most inhospitable environments, has known periods of enhanced precipitation that supported pre-historic humans. However, the Green Sahara timing and moisture sources are not well known due to limited paleoclimate information. Here, we present a multi-proxy (δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, Δ¹⁷O, and trace elements) speleothem-based climate record from Northwest (NW) Africa. Our data document two Green Sahara periods during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a and the Early to Mid-Holocene. Consistency with paleoclimate records across North Africa highlights the east-west geographical extent of the Green Sahara, whereas millennial-scale North Atlantic cooling (Heinrich) events consistently resulted in drier conditions. We demonstrate that an increase in westerly-originating winter precipitation during MIS5a resulted in favorable environmental conditions. The comparison of paleoclimate data with local archaeological sequences highlights the abrupt climate deterioration and the decline in human density in NW Africa during the MIS5-4 transition, which suggests climate-forced dispersals of populations, with possible implications for pathways into Eurasia.

Tree biodiversity of warm drylands is likely to decline in a drier world

Warm drylands represent 19% of land surfaces worldwide and host ca. 1100 tree species. The risk of decline due to climate aridification of this neglected biodiversity has been overlooked despite its ecological and societal importance. To fill this gap, we assessed the risk of decline due to climate aridification of tree species in warm drylands based on spatialized occurrence data and climate models. We considered both species vulnerability and exposure, compared the risk of tree species decline across five bioregions and searched for phylogenetic correlates. Depending on the future climate model, from 44% to 88% of warm drylands' tree species will undergo climate aridification with a high risk of decline even under the most optimistic conditions. On a regional scale, the rate of species that will undergo climate aridification in the future varies from 21% in the Old World North, to 90% in Australia, with a risk of decline confirming the high level of risk predicted at the global scale. Using generalized linear mixed models, we found that, species more exposed to climate aridification will be more at risk, but also that species vulnerability is a key driver of their risk of decline. Indeed, the warm drylands specialist species will be less at risk due to climate aridification than species being marginal in warm drylands. We also found that the risk of decline is widespread across the main clades of the phylogeny and involves several evolutionary distinct species. Estimating a high risk of decline for numerous tree species in all warm drylands, including emblematic dryland endemics, our work warns that future increase in aridity could result in an extensive erosion of tree biodiversity in these ecosystems.

Grassland cover declined in Southern Africa but increased in other African subcontinents in early twenty-first century

The African continent has the most extensive grassland cover in the world, providing valuable ecosystem services. African grasslands, like other continental grasslands, are prone to various anthropogenic disturbances and climate, and require data-driven monitoring for efficient functioning and service delivery. Yet, knowledge of how the African grassland cover has changed in the past years is lacking, especially at the subcontinent level, due to lack of relevant long-term, Africa-wide observations and experiments. In this study, we used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) data spanning 2001 to 2017 to conduct land use land cover (LULC) change analyses and map grassland distribution in Africa. Specifically, we assessed the changes in grassland cover across and within African subcontinents over three periods (2001-2013, 2013-2017, and 2001-2017). We found that the African grassland cover was 16,777,765.5 km², 16,999,468.25 km², and 16,968,304.25 km² in 2001, 2013, and 2017, respectively. There were net gain (1.32%) and net loss (- 0.19%) during 2001-2013 and 2013-2017 periods, respectively, and the annual rate of change during these periods were 0.11% and - 0.05%, respectively. Generally, the African grassland cover increased by 1.14% (0.07% per annum) over the entire study period (2001-2017) at the expense of forestland, cropland, and built-up areas. The East and West African grassland cover reduced by 0.07% (- 0.02% per annum) and 1.35% (- 0.34% per annum), respectively from 2013 to 2017 but increased in other periods. On the other hand, the grassland cover in North and Central Africa increased throughout the three periods while that of Southern Africa decreased over the three periods. Overall, the net gains in the grassland cover of other African subcontinents offset the loss in Southern Africa and promoted the overall gain across Africa. This study underscores the need for continuous monitoring of African grasslands and the causes of their changes for efficient delivery of ecosystem services.

Long-term projection of future climate change over the twenty-first century in the Sahara region in Africa under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways scenarios

Climate change affects air quality and people's health. Therefore, accurate prediction of future climate change is of great significance for human beings to better adapt and mitigate climate change. Using the projection simulation dataset of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, the future climate change in the Sahara region under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) is analyzed. The results show that annual and seasonal average surface air temperature in the Sahara region will continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century relative to the baseline period 1995-2014 if greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue increasing. Under the four SSPs scenarios, the warming in the Sahara region will be more pronounced than in the whole world through the twenty-first century. The annual maximum temperature (TX), the annual minimum temperature (TN), the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 35 °C (TX 35), and the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 40 °C (TX 40) in the Sahara region will continue to increase until the end of the twenty-first century under the four scenarios. The results of climate change prediction can provide scientific reference for climate policy-making.

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Genome sequencing of up to 6,000-yr-old Citrullus seeds reveals use of a bitter-fleshed species prior to watermelon domestication

Iconographic evidence from Egypt suggests that watermelon pulp was consumed there as a dessert by 4,360 BP. Earlier archaeobotanical evidence comes from seeds from Neolithic settlements in Libya, but whether these were watermelons with sweet pulp or other forms is unknown. We generated genome sequences from 6,000- and 3,300-year-old seeds from Libya and Sudan, and from worldwide herbarium collections made between 1824 and 2019, and analyzed these data together with resequenced genomes from important germplasm collections for a total of 131 accessions. Phylogenomic and population-genomic analyses reveal that (1) much of the nuclear genome of both ancient seeds is traceable to West African seed-use “egusi-type” watermelon (Citrullus mucosospermus) rather than domesticated pulp-use watermelon (Citrullus lanatus ssp. vulgaris); (2) the 6,000-year-old watermelon likely had bitter pulp and greenish-white flesh as today found in C. mucosospermus, given alleles in the bitterness regulators ClBT and in the red color marker LYCB; and (3) both ancient genomes showed admixture from C. mucosospermus, C. lanatus ssp. cordophanus, C. lanatus ssp. vulgaris, and even South African Citrullus amarus, and evident introgression between the Libyan seed (UMB-6) and populations of C. lanatus. An unexpected new insight is that Citrullus appears to have initially been collected or cultivated for its seeds, not its flesh, consistent with seed damage patterns induced by human teeth in the oldest Libyan material.

Past 200 kyr hydroclimate variability in the western Mediterranean and its connection to the African Humid Periods

The Iberian Peninsula is located at the intersection between the subtropical and temperate climate zones and the paleoclimate records from this region are key to elucidate the varying humidity and changing dominance of atmospheric circulation patterns in the Mediterranean-North African region in the past. Here we present a quantitative hydroclimate reconstruction for the last ca. 200 kyr from southern Iberian Peninsula based on pollen data from the Padul lake sediment record. We use the newly developed Scale-normalized Significant Zero crossing (SnSiZer) method to detect not only the statistically significant precipitation changes but also to estimate the relative magnitude of these oscillations in our reconstruction. We identify six statistically significant main humid phases, termed West Mediterranean Humid Periods (WMHP 1–6). These humid periods correlate with other West/Central Mediterranean paleohydrological records, suggesting that similar climatic factors affected different areas of the Mediterranean. In addition, the WMPHs are roughly coeval with the African Humid Periods (AHPs) during high seasonality, suggesting the same North Atlantic ocean-atmospheric dynamics and orbital forcing as main drivers of both areas. In contrast, during low seasonality periods, the West Mediterranean still appears to be affected by the westerlies and the local Mediterranean rainfall systems with moderate-to-high precipitation, whereas West Africa was characterized by droughts.

Development of a Dust Source Map for WRF-Chem Model Based on MODIS NDVI

We present the development of a physically-based dust source map for the GOCART-AFWA dust module in WRF-Chem model. The new parameterization is based on MODIS-NDVI and an updated emission strength map is computed every 15 days from the latest satellite observations. Modeling simulations for the period April–May 2017 over the Mediterranean, north Africa, and the Middle East are compared with observations of AOD at 31 AERONET stations. The new module is capable of reproducing the dust sources at finer detail. The overall performance of the model is improved, especially for stronger dust episodes with AOD > 0.25. For this threshold the model BIAS decreases from −0.20 to −0.02, the RMSE from 0.38 to 0.30, the Correlation Coefficient improves from 0.21 to 0.47, the fractional gross error (FGE) from 0.62 to 0.40, and the mean fractional bias (MFB) from −0.49 to −0.08. Similar improvement is also found for the lower AOD thresholds (>0.0 and >0.1), especially for the stations in Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahel, the Middle East, and Arabian Peninsula, which are mostly affected by dust transport during the experimental period. An overprediction of AOD, compared to the original dust-source scheme, is found for some stations in the Sahara desert, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Iberian Peninsula. In total, 124 out of the 170 statistical scores that are calculated indicate improvement of model performance.

Environmental regionalization and endemic plant distribution in the Maghreb

Clustering methods based on environmental variables are useful in the planning of conservation strategies for species and ecosystems. However, there is a lack of work on the regionalization of the vast space of North Africa and the distribution of plant species. The current lists of endemic plants are focused mostly on an occurrence at the country level and not on regions with different conditions. The aim of this work was to lay out an environmental scheme for northwest Africa and to collect data about the occurrence of endemic plants in this area. Clustering with 12 of 33 tested environmental rasters was performed to divide the Maghreb into environmental clusters. Then, a list of 1618 endemic plant taxa (1243 species and 375 subspecies) was prepared and their distribution in estimated environmental clusters was examined. Eleven clusters with different conditions were estimated. The main drivers of regionalization were temperature amplitude, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. According to the occurrence of endemic plants, northwest Africa may be divided into three zones: Atlas, Mediterranean (two environmental clusters), and southern zone (eight environmental clusters). The presented results provide a good basis for understanding the spatial patterns of the Maghreb, including its environment and species diversity. A designed list of endemic plant species together with environmental data may facilitate the planning of future research in north Africa and arranging methods of biodiversity protection.

Impacts of Anthropogenic Disturbance on Vegetation Dynamics: A Case Study of Wadi Hagul, Eastern Desert, Egypt

Irresponsible human interventions, encroachment of natural habitats, and climate change negatively affect wildlife. In this study, the effects of human influence on Wadi Hagul, an unprotected area in the north of the Egyptian Eastern Desert that has recently been subjected to blatant encroachments of vegetation, were studied. The most important of these threats is the construction of the new road Al-Galala-Wadi Hagul-Zafarana. In Wadi Hagul, 80 species are reported in this study; the most represented plant families are Asteraceae (15 species) and Brassicaceae (6 species). Perennial, chamaephyte and Saharo-Arabian species were recorded in the highest percentage. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis showed that latitude, longitude, altitude, silt, sand contents, pH, and CO₃^2- content are the factors that have the highest effect on vegetation distribution in the studied stands. Several invasive and alien species such as Euphorbia prostrata have been listed; these species typically have a negative effect on native species. The Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) indicated a decrease in plant cover during the study period, as compared to previous years. In 2013 and 2020, SAVI ranged from -0.02 to 0.42 and from -0.18 to 0.28, respectively. Recently, the violation and destruction of wildlife have increased, therefore, preserving it along with general biodiversity has become an urgent necessity.

The transition from hunting-gathering to agriculture in Nubia: dental evidence for and against selection, population continuity and discontinuity

Some researchers posit population continuity between Late Palaeolithic hunter-gatherers of the late Pleistocene and Holocene agriculturalists from Lower (northern) Nubia, in northeast Africa. Substantial craniodental differences in these time-successive groups are suggested to result from in situ evolution. Specifically, these populations are considered a model example for subsistence-related selection worldwide in the transition to agriculture. Others question continuity, with findings indicating that the largely homogeneous Holocene populations differ significantly from late Pleistocene Lower Nubians. If the latter are representative of the local populace, post-Pleistocene discontinuity is implied. So who was ancestral to the Holocene agriculturalists? Dental morphological analyses of 18 samples (1075 individuals), including one dated to the 12th millennium BCE from Al Khiday, near the Upper Nubian border, may provide an answer. It is the first Late Palaeolithic sample (n = 55) recovered within the region in approximately 50 years. Using the Arizona State University Dental Anthropology System to record traits and multivariate statistics to estimate biological affinities, Al Khiday is comparable to several Holocene samples, yet also highly divergent from contemporaneous Lower Nubians. Thus, population continuity is indicated after all, but with late Pleistocene Upper-rather than Lower Nubians as originally suggested-assuming dental traits are adequate proxies for ancient DNA.

Early Holocene greening of the Sahara requires Mediterranean winter rainfall

The greening of the Sahara, associated with the African Humid Period (AHP) between ca. 14,500 and 5,000 y ago, is arguably the largest climate-induced environmental change in the Holocene; it is usually explained by the strengthening and northward expansion of the African monsoon in response to orbital forcing. However, the strengthened monsoon in Early to Middle Holocene climate model simulations cannot sustain vegetation in the Sahara or account for the increased humidity in the Mediterranean region. Here, we present an 18,500-y pollen and leaf-wax δD record from Lake Tislit (32° N) in Morocco, which provides quantitative reconstruction of winter and summer precipitation in northern Africa. The record from Lake Tislit shows that the northern Sahara and the Mediterranean region were wetter in the AHP because of increased winter precipitation and were not influenced by the monsoon. The increased seasonal contrast of insolation led to an intensification and southward shift of the Mediterranean winter precipitation system in addition to the intensified summer monsoon. Therefore, a winter rainfall zone must have met and possibly overlapped the monsoonal zone in the Sahara. Using a mechanistic vegetation model in Early Holocene conditions, we show that this seasonal distribution of rainfall is more efficient than the increased monsoon alone in generating a green Sahara vegetation cover, in agreement with observed vegetation. This conceptual framework should be taken into consideration in Earth system paleoclimate simulations used to explore the mechanisms of African climatic and environmental sensitivity.

Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial

Proxy reconstructions from marine sediment cores indicate peak temperatures in the first half of the last and current interglacial periods (the thermal maxima of the Holocene epoch, 10,000 to 6,000 years ago, and the last interglacial period, 128,000 to 123,000 years ago) that arguably exceed modern warmth^1-3. By contrast, climate models simulate monotonic warming throughout both periods^4-7. This substantial model-data discrepancy undermines confidence in both proxy reconstructions and climate models, and inhibits a mechanistic understanding of recent climate change. Here we show that previous global reconstructions of temperature in the Holocene^1-3 and the last interglacial period⁸ reflect the evolution of seasonal, rather than annual, temperatures and we develop a method of transforming them to mean annual temperatures. We further demonstrate that global mean annual sea surface temperatures have been steadily increasing since the start of the Holocene (about 12,000 years ago), first in response to retreating ice sheets (12 to 6.5 thousand years ago), and then as a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations (0.25 ± 0.21 degrees Celsius over the past 6,500 years or so). However, mean annual temperatures during the last interglacial period were stable and warmer than estimates of temperatures during the Holocene, and we attribute this to the near-constant greenhouse gas levels and the reduced extent of ice sheets. We therefore argue that the climate of the Holocene differed from that of the last interglacial period in two ways: first, larger remnant glacial ice sheets acted to cool the early Holocene, and second, rising greenhouse gas levels in the late Holocene warmed the planet. Furthermore, our reconstructions demonstrate that the modern global temperature has exceeded annual levels over the past 12,000 years and probably approaches the warmth of the last interglacial period (128,000 to 115,000 years ago).

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

The mid-Holocene has seen a number of climate shifts, which have been associated with societal changes. Here, the authors investigate in a centuries long megadrought in Southeast Asia during the mid-Holocene, possibly caused by the end of the Green Sahara period.

Drier tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2-3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.