Mathematical models and lymphatic filariasis control: endpoints and optimal interventions

A dynamic game of lymphatic filariasis prevention by voluntary use of insecticide treated nets

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 with a goal to keep the prevalence of LF infections under the 1% threshold. While mass drug administration (MDA) is a primary strategy recommended by WHO, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) plays a crucial role as an alternative strategy when MDA cannot be used. In this paper, we use imitation dynamics to incorporate human behavior and voluntary use of ITN into the compartmental epidemiological model of LF transmission. We find the equilibrium states of the dynamics and the ITN usage as it depends on epidemiological parameters and the cost of ITNs. We investigate the conditions under which the voluntary use of ITNs can keep the LF prevalence under the 1% threshold. We found that when the cost of using the ITNs is about 105 smaller than the perceived cost of LF, then the voluntary use of ITNs will eliminate LF as a public health concern. Furthermore, when the ITNs are given away for free, our model predicts that over 80% of the population will use them which would eliminate LF completely in regions where Anopheles are the primary vectors.

Assessment of microfilaremia in 'hotspots' of four lymphatic filariasis endemic districts of Nepal during post-MDA surveillance

BACKGROUND

The lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination program in all sixty-three endemic districts of Nepal was based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) using a combination of diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole for at least 5 years. The MDA program was started in the Parsa district of the Terai region and at least six rounds of MDA were completed between 2003 and 2017 in all filariasis endemic districts of Central Nepal. Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) report indicated that circulating filarial antigen (CFA) prevalence was below the critical value i.e., ≤ 2% in selected LF endemic districts of Central Nepal. Based on the TAS report, antigen-positive cases were found clustered in the foci of those districts which were considered as "hotspots". Hence the present study was designed to assess microfilaremia in hotspots of four endemic districts of Central Nepal after the MDA program.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The present study assessed microfilaremia in hotspots of four endemic districts i.e. Lalitpur and Dhading from the hilly region and Bara and Mahottari from the Terai region of Central Nepal. Night blood samples (n = 1722) were collected by finger prick method from the eligible sample population irrespective of age and sex. Community people's participation in the MDA program was ensured using a structured questionnaire and chronic clinical manifestation of LF was assessed using standard case definition. Two districts one each from the hilly region (Lalitpur district) and Terai region (Bara district) showed improved microfilaria (MF) prevalence i.e. below the critical level (<1%) while the other two districts are still over the critical level. There was a significantly high prevalence of MF in male (p = <0.05) and ≥41 years of age group (p = <0.05) community people in the hotspots of four endemic districts. People who participated in the previous rounds of the MDA program have significantly low MF prevalence. The upper confidence limit of MF prevalence in all hotspots of four districts was above the critical level (>1%). Chronic clinical manifestation of LF showed significant association with the older age group (≥41 years) but not with sex.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed LF transmission improved in hotspots of two districts while continued in others but the risk of LF resurgence cannot be ignored since the upper confidence level of MF prevalence is over 1% in all the hotspots studied districts. High MF prevalence is well correlated with the number of MDA rounds but not with the MDA coverage. Community people involved in MDA drug uptake in any previous and last rounds have significantly less MF infection. Hence it is recommended that before deciding to stop the MDA rounds it is essential to conduct the MF survey at the hotspots of the sentinel sites.

Assessment of antigenemia among children in four hotspots of filarial endemic districts of Nepal during post-MDA surveillance

BACKGROUND

Sixty-three out of 77 districts reported lymphatic filariasis (LF) endemic in Nepal. Mass drug administration (MDA) with diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (ALB) treatment program was continued for 6 to 11 rounds in these districts. Nepal government has stopped the MDA program based on the transmission assessment survey (TAS) report of 2014 and 2018 indicating Wuchereria bancrofti antigenemia prevalence < 2%. But the persistence of low levels of the circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in some foci of four endemic districts of Central Nepal, i.e., 0.4% in Dhading, 0.7% in Mahottari, 0.21% in Lalitpur and 1.2% in Bara district could responsible for enhancing the risk of infection resurgence. Hence the present study was designed to assess antigenic prevalence using Filariasis Test Strip (Alere, Scarborough ME) in children born after MDA in hotspot areas of four endemic districts of Central Nepal.

RESULTS

The present study covers 70% children of the eligible population. The result revealed significantly high CFA prevalence in hotspots of Mahottari district belonging to the Terai region and Dhading district belonging to the hilly region, i.e., 13% and 10%, respectively, compared to baseline prevalence and TAS report. While in Lalitpur district and Bara district CFA prevalence was still found to be less than 2%. A higher number of MDA rounds covered in hotspots were found significantly associated with the low antigenic prevalence of W. bancrofti. Whereas median treatment coverage and inter-quartile range (IQR) in study districts were not found significantly associated with CFA prevalence. Although the clinical manifestation of hydrocele (1%) was found in all four study districts, it was not due to the W. bancrofti infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Two hotspot regions, one each from the Terai (Mahottari) and hilly (Dhading) districts were found highly prevalent with CFA and significantly associated with the number of MDA rounds but were not associated with treatment coverage and IQR. Higher CFA prevalence was observed in hotspots where baseline prevalence was high together indicating that rounds of MDA program need to be extended further in these hotspot regions of endemic districts.

Evaluating elimination thresholds and stopping criteria for interventions against the vector-borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, using mathematical modelling

We leveraged the ability of EPIFIL transmission models fit to field data to evaluate the use of the WHO Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) for supporting Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) intervention stopping decisions. Our results indicate that understanding the underlying parasite extinction dynamics, particularly the protracted transient dynamics involved in shifts to the extinct state, is crucial for understanding the impacts of using TAS for determining the achievement of LF elimination. These findings warn that employing stopping criteria set for operational purposes, as employed in the TAS strategy, without a full consideration of the dynamics of extinction could seriously undermine the goal of achieving global LF elimination.

A game-theoretic model of lymphatic filariasis prevention

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a mosquito-borne parasitic neglected tropical disease. In 2000, WHO launched the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) as a public health problem. In 2020, new goals for 2030 were set which includes a reduction to 0 of the total population requiring Mass Drug Administrations (MDA), a primary tool of GPELF. We develop a mathematical model to study what can happen at the end of MDA. We use a game-theoretic approach to assess the voluntary use of insect repellents in the prevention of the spread of LF through vector bites. Our results show that when individuals use what they perceive as optimal levels of protection, the LF incidence rates will become high. This is in striking difference to other vector-borne NTDs such as Chagas or zika. We conclude that the voluntary use of the protection alone will not be enough to keep LF eliminated as a public health problem and a more coordinated effort will be needed at the end of MDA.

A mathematical model of the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in Caraga Region, the Philippines

Despite being one of the first countries to implement mass drug administration (MDA) for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 2001 after a pilot study in 2000, the Philippines is yet to eliminate the disease as a public health problem with 6 out of the 46 endemic provinces still implementing MDA for LF as of 2018. In this work, we propose a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of LF in the Philippines and a control strategy for its elimination using MDA. Sensitivity analysis using the Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient methods suggests that the infected human population is most sensitive to the treatment parameters. Using the available LF data in Caraga Region from the Philippine Department of Health, we estimate the treatment rates r ₁ and r ₂ using the least-squares parameter estimation technique. Parameter bootstrapping showed small variability in the parameter estimates. Finally, we apply optimal control theory with the objective of minimizing the infected human population and the corresponding implementation cost of MDA, using the treatment coverage γ as the control parameter. Simulation results highlight the importance of maintaining a high MDA coverage per year to effectively minimize the infected population by the year 2030.

Simulating a Transmission Assessment Survey: An evaluation of current methods used in determining the elimination of the neglected tropical disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) to determine when an evaluation unit (EU) (a designated population survey area) has achieved elimination of transmission of the vector-borne macroparasitic disease Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). These determinations are based on combining data from multiple survey units within an EU; it is unclear how underlying cluster-level variation influences the outcome of the TAS at EU level. We simulate LF infection distribution in an EU and compare three methods for assessing whether LF elimination has occurred based on currently recommended decision thresholds and sampling methods.

METHODS

We simulate an EU divided into clusters of varying size and disease prevalence. We produce 1000 samples according to LF TAS examples and WHO guidelines and compare three decision-making approaches: lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) (recommended by WHO), one-sided interval estimate (CI), and n^th order statistic (MAX). Summary statistics demonstrating the "pass" rate for the EU under different disease transmission conditions are generated using a versatile SAS® macro.

RESULTS

As the prevalence of LF decreases, the LQAS and CI approaches produce increased likelihood of a pass outcome for an EU while some cluster units may still have a high likelihood of transmission. The MAX provides an alternative that increases the likelihood of determining a pass only once the whole area has a low likelihood of transmission. LQAS and CI approaches designed to estimate the LF prevalence in the EU miss hotspots that will continue to transmit infection while the MAX approach focuses on identifying clusters with high risk of transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

The current TAS methodology has a flaw that may result in false predictions of LF transmission interruption throughout an EU. Modifying the TAS methodology to address results from extreme clusters rather than being based on mean prevalence over an EU will result in greater success for global elimination of LF.

Mathematical Model for Optimal Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection

In this paper, we study the dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infection. We formulate and analyse a deterministic compartmental model using nonlinear differential equations. The basic reproduction number is obtained and both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are shown to be asymptotically stable under given threshold conditions. The model may exhibit backward bifurcation for some parameter values, and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number with respect to the parameters are determined. We extend the model to include control measures for eradication of the infection from the community. Pontryagian's maximum principle is used to formulate the optimal control problem using three control strategies, namely, health education through provision of educational materials, educational messages to improve the awareness of the susceptible population, and treatment by mass drug administration that target the entire population(preschool- and school-aged children) and sanitation through provision of clean water and personal hygiene. Numerical simulations were done using MATLAB and graphical results are displayed. The cost effectiveness of the control measures were done using incremental cost-effective ratio, and results reveal that the combination of health education and sanitation is the best strategy to combat the helminth infection. Therefore, in order to completely eradicate soil-transmitted helminths, we advise investment efforts on health education and sanitation controls.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

As modelling becomes commonly used in the design and evaluation of parasite elimination programs, the need for well-defined models and datasets describing the nature of transmission processes in local settings is becoming pronounced. For many neglected tropical diseases, however, data for site-specific model identification are typically sparse or incomplete. In this study, we present a new data-model computational discovery system that couples data-assimilation methods based on existing monitoring survey data with model-generated data about baseline conditions to discover the local transmission models required for simulating the impacts of interventions in typical endemic locations for the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF). Using data from eight study sites in Nigeria and elsewhere, we show that our reconstructive computational framework is able to combine information contained within partially-available site-specific monitoring data with knowledge of parasite transmission dynamics embedded in process-based models to generate the missing data required for inducing reliable locally applicable LF models. We also show that the models so discovered are able to generate the intervention forecasts required for supporting management-relevant decisions in parasite elimination.

Mapping lymphatic filariasis in Loa loa endemic health districts naïve for ivermectin mass administration and situated in the forested zone of Cameroon

BACKGROUND

The control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) caused by Wuchereria bancrofti in the Central African Region has been hampered by the presence of Loa loa due to severe adverse events that arise in the treatment with ivermectin. The immunochromatographic test (ICT) cards used for mapping LF demonstrated cross-reactivity with L. loa and posed the problem of delineating the LF map. To verify LF endemicity in forest areas of Cameroon where mass drug administration (MDA) has not been ongoing, we used the recently developed strategy that combined serology, microscopy and molecular techniques.

METHODS

This study was carried out in 124 communities in 31 health districts (HDs) where L. loa is present. At least 125 persons per site were screened. Diurnal blood samples were investigated for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) by FTS and for L. loa microfilariae (mf) using TBF. FTS positive individuals were further subjected to night blood collection for detecting W. bancrofti. qPCR was used to detect DNA of the parasites.

RESULTS

Overall, 14,446 individuals took part in this study, 233 participants tested positive with FTS in 29 HDs, with positivity rates ranging from 0.0 to 8.2%. No W. bancrofti mf was found in the night blood of any individuals but L. loa mf were found in both day and night blood of participants who were FTS positive. Also, qPCR revealed that no W. bancrofti but L.loa DNA was found with dry bloodspot. Positive FTS results were strongly associated with high L. loa mf load. Similarly, a strong positive association was observed between FTS positivity and L loa prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a combination of parasitological and molecular tools, we were unable to find evidence of W. bancrofti presence in the 31 HDs, but L. loa instead. Therefore, LF is not endemic and LF MDA is not required in these districts.

Advances in Vaccine Development for Human Lymphatic Filariasis

According to the World Health Organization, over 880 million people are currently at risk of acquiring lymphatic filariasis (LF) in over 52 countries worldwide. Current approaches to control LF by 2020 are short of the anticipated goal. Several studies suggest the existence of protective immunity against LF in humans. Thus, it is possible to develop a prophylactic vaccine against LF in humans. Several potential vaccine candidates were identified and tested for their potential against LF. To date, preclinical studies suggest that it is possible to develop a prophylactic vaccine against LF. Much work needs to be done, but it is clear that a prophylactic vaccine, combined with targeted chemotherapy, is critically required for eliminating LF worldwide.

Mapping the baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis across Nigeria

Introduction

The baseline endemicity profile of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a key benchmark for planning control programmes, monitoring their impact on transmission and assessing the feasibility of achieving elimination. Presented in this work is the modelled serological and parasitological prevalence of LF prior to the scale-up of mass drug administration (MDA) in Nigeria using a machine learning based approach.

Methods

LF prevalence data generated by the Nigeria Lymphatic Filariasis Control Programme during country-wide mapping surveys conducted between 2000 and 2013 were used to build the models. The dataset comprised of 1103 community-level surveys based on the detection of filarial antigenemia using rapid immunochromatographic card tests (ICT) and 184 prevalence surveys testing for the presence of microfilaria (Mf) in blood. Using a suite of climate and environmental continuous gridded variables and compiled site-level prevalence data, a quantile regression forest (QRF) model was fitted for both antigenemia and microfilaraemia LF prevalence. Model predictions were projected across a continuous 5 × 5 km gridded map of Nigeria. The number of individuals potentially infected by LF prior to MDA interventions was subsequently estimated.

Results

Maps presented predict a heterogeneous distribution of LF antigenemia and microfilaraemia in Nigeria. The North-Central, North-West, and South-East regions displayed the highest predicted LF seroprevalence, whereas predicted Mf prevalence was highest in the southern regions. Overall, 8.7 million and 3.3 million infections were predicted for ICT and Mf, respectively.

Conclusions

QRF is a machine learning-based algorithm capable of handling high-dimensional data and fitting complex relationships between response and predictor variables. Our models provide a benchmark through which the progress of ongoing LF control efforts can be monitored.

How Modelling Can Enhance the Analysis of Imperfect Epidemic Data

Mathematical models play an increasingly important role in our understanding of the transmission and control of infectious diseases. Here, we present concrete examples illustrating how mathematical models, paired with rigorous statistical methods, are used to parse data of different levels of detail and breadth and estimate key epidemiological parameters (e.g., transmission and its determinants, severity, impact of interventions, drivers of epidemic dynamics) even when these parameters are not directly measurable, when data are limited, and when the epidemic process is only partially observed. Finally, we assess the hurdles to be taken to increase availability and applicability of these approaches in an effort to ultimately enhance their public health impact.

Many data can be used to estimate the transmission potential of a pathogen, including descriptions of the transmission chains, human cluster sizes, sources of infection, and epidemic curves.

An important agenda in public health is understanding the impact of control methods. However, the dynamic nature of epidemics makes this task challenging. Models can disentangle the natural course of outbreaks from the effect of external factors.

In the absence of reliable surveillance data, models can reconstruct epidemic history by combining age-specific seroprevalence data with an understanding of the natural history of infection.

Mechanisms of immunity are hard to observe at an individual level, yet they affect population-level dynamics. Models can tease out such signatures.

Morbidity and mortality can be difficult to estimate when many infections are unobserved and severe infections are reported more often. Models can be used to correct for under-reporting and selection bias.

Understanding heterogeneities in mosquito-bite exposure and infection distributions for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis

It is well known that individuals in the same community can be exposed to a highly variable number of mosquito bites. This heterogeneity in bite exposure has consequences for the control of vector-borne diseases because a few people may be contributing significantly to transmission. However, very few studies measure sources of heterogeneity in a way which is relevant to decision-making. We investigate the relationship between two classic measures of heterogeneity, spatial and individual, within the context of lymphatic filariasis, a parasitic mosquito-borne disease. Using infection and mosquito-bite data for five villages in Papua New Guinea, we measure biting characteristics to model what impact bed-nets have had on control of the disease. We combine this analysis with geospatial modelling to understand the spatial relationship between disease indicators and nightly mosquito bites. We found a weak association between biting and infection heterogeneity within villages. The introduction of bed-nets increased biting heterogeneity, but the reduction in mean biting more than compensated for this, by reducing prevalence closer to elimination thresholds. Nightly biting was explained by a spatial heterogeneity model, while parasite load was better explained by an individual heterogeneity model. Spatial and individual heterogeneity are qualitatively different with profoundly different policy implications.

Lymphatic filariasis transmission in Rufiji District, southeastern Tanzania: infection status of the human population and mosquito vectors after twelve rounds of mass drug administration

Background

Control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in most of the sub-Saharan African countries is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) using a combination of ivermectin and albendazole. Monitoring the impact of this intervention is crucial for measuring the success of the LF elimination programmes. This study assessed the status of LF infection in Rufiji district, southeastern Tanzania after twelve rounds of MDA.

Methods

Community members aged between 10 and 79 years were examined for Wuchereria bancrofti circulating filarial antigens (CFA) using immunochromatographic test cards (ICTs) and antigen-positive individuals were screened for microfilaraemia. All study participants were examined for clinical manifestation of LF and interviewed for drug uptake during MDA rounds. Filarial mosquito vectors were collected indoor and outdoor and examined for infection with W. bancrofti using a microscope and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) techniques.

Results

Out of 854 participants tested, nine (1.1%) were positive for CFA and one (0.1%) was found to be microfilaraemic. The prevalence of hydrocele and elephantiasis was 4.8% and 2.9%, respectively. Surveyed drug uptake rates were high, with 70.5% of the respondents reporting having swallowed the drugs in the 2014 MDA round (about seven months before this study). Further, 82.7% of the respondents reported having swallowed the drugs at least once since the inception of MDA programme in 2000. Of the 1054 filarial vectors caught indoors and dissected to detect W. bancrofti infection none was found to be infected. Moreover, analysis by qPCR of 1092 pools of gravid Culex quinquefasciatus collected outdoors resulted in an estimated infection rate of 0.1%. None of the filarial vectors tested with qPCR were found to be infective.

Conclusion

Analysis of indices of LF infection in the human population and filarial mosquito vectors indicated a substantial decline in the prevalence of LF and other transmission indices, suggesting that local transmission was extremely low if occurring at all in the study areas. We, therefore, recommend a formal transmission assessment survey (TAS) to be conducted in the study areas to make an informed decision on whether Rufiji District satisfied WHO criteria for stopping MDA.

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

The decision when to stop an intervention is a critical component of parasite elimination programmes, but reliance on surveillance data alone can be inaccurate. Here, Michael et al. combine parasite transmission model predictions with disease survey data to more reliably determine when interventions can be stopped.

Lymphatic filariasis control in Tanzania: infection, disease perceptions and drug uptake patterns in an endemic community after multiple rounds of mass drug administration

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) control in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) with a combination of ivermectin and albendazole, in order to interrupt transmission. However, attaining and maintaining high treatment coverage has been a challenge in many LF control programmes. This study was designed to elucidate reasons for continued transmission of LF in an endemic area of Tanga, northeastern Tanzania, where control activities based on MDA had been in place for eight years by the time of this study in 2012.

METHODS

A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in three sentinel villages used for monitoring the impact of MDA on LF transmission. A total of 747 individuals were interviewed, out of which 172 (23.0%), 27 (3.6%) and 49 (6.5%) had been shown to have circulating filarial antigens (CFA), microfilaraemia (MF) and LF gross lesions, respectively, prior to the interviews.

RESULTS

The interviewed population had a mean age of 33.7 years and a male to female ratio of 0.8. Males, individuals aged 30 years and above, peasants/fishermen and recent immigrants to the study communities were significantly more affected (CFA, MF and/ or LF gross lesions) than the other population groups. However, drug uptake rates were not significantly different between LF affected (those with CFA, MF and/ or LF gross lesions) and non-affected individuals. Likewise, drug uptake rates were not significantly different across different demographic parameters of the study population, some of which differed significantly in the level of infection. Moreover, it was found that misconceptions on how LF can be acquired were still evident, linking its transmission to witchcraft, heredity and sexual behaviour.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicated that misconceptions about LF and its transmission still existed despite eight years of control activities in the area. Improved communication on the rationale of MDA and an enhanced drug delivery strategy that is adapted to the local settings and targeting important demographic groups that serve as reservoir of infection will help in reaching the elimination target within a reasonable timeframe.

Elimination of lymphatic filariasis in west African urban areas: is implementation of mass drug administration necessary?

Lymphatic filariasis in Africa is caused by the parasite Wuchereria bancrofti and remains a major cause of morbidity and disability in 74 countries globally. A key strategy of the Global Programme for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis, which has a target elimination date of 2020, is the treatment of entire endemic communities through mass drug administration of albendazole in combination with either ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine. Although the strategy of mass drug administration in combination with other interventions, such as vector control, has led to elimination of the infection and its transmission in many rural communities, urban areas in west Africa present specific challenges to achieving the 2020 targets. In this Personal View, we examine these challenges and the relevance of mass drug administration in urban areas, exploring the rationale for a reassessment of policy in these settings. The community-based mass treatment approach is best suited to rural areas, is challenging and costly in urban areas, and cannot easily achieve the 65% consistent coverage required for elimination of transmission. In our view, the implementation of mass drug administration might not be essential to interrupt transmission of lymphatic filariasis in urban areas in west Africa. Evidence shows that transmission levels are low and that effective mass drug distribution is difficult to implement, with assessments suggesting that specific control measures against filariasis in such dynamic settings is not an effective use of limited resources. Instead, we recommend that individuals who have clinical disease or who test positive for W bancrofti infection in surveillance activities should be offered antifilarial drugs through a passive surveillance approach, as well as morbidity management for their needs. We also recommend that more precise studies are done, so that mass drug administration in urban areas is considered if sustainable transmission is found to be ongoing. Otherwise, the limited resources should be directed towards other elements of the lymphatic filariasis programme.

Is mass drug administration against lymphatic filariasis required in urban settings? The experience in Kano, Nigeria

Background

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF), launched in 2000, has the target of eliminating the disease as a public health problem by the year 2020. The strategy adopted is mass drug administration (MDA) to all eligible individuals in endemic communities and the implementation of measures to reduce the morbidity of those suffering from chronic disease. Success has been recorded in many rural endemic communities in which elimination efforts have centered. However, implementation has been challenging in several urban African cities. The large cities of West Africa, exemplified in Nigeria in Kano are challenging for LF elimination program because reaching 65% therapeutic coverage during MDA is difficult. There is therefore a need to define a strategy which could complement MDA. Thus, in Kano State, Nigeria, while LF MDA had reached 33 of the 44 Local Government Areas (LGAs) there remained eleven ‘urban’ LGAs which had not been covered by MDA. Given the challenges of achieving at least 65% coverage during MDA implementation over several years in order to achieve elimination, it may be challenging to eliminate LF in such settings. In order to plan the LF control activities, this study was undertaken to confirm the LF infection prevalence in the human and mosquito populations in three urban LGAs.

Methods

The prevalence of circulating filarial antigen (CFA) of Wuchereria bancrofti was assessed by an immuno-chromatography test (ICT) in 981 people in three urban LGAs of Kano state, Nigeria. Mosquitoes were collected over a period of 4 months from May to August 2015 using exit traps, gravid traps and pyrethrum knock-down spray sheet collections (PSC) in different households. A proportion of mosquitoes were analyzed for W. bancrofti, using dissection, loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay and conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

Results

The results showed that none of the 981 subjects (constituted of <21% of children 5–10 years old) tested had detectable levels of CFA in their blood. Entomological results showed that An. gambiae s.l. had W. bancrofti DNA detectable in pools in Kano; W. bancrofti DNA was detected in between 0.96% and 6.78% and to a lesser extent in Culex mosquitoes where DNA was detected at rates of between 0.19% and 0.64%. DNA analysis showed that An. coluzzii constituted 9.9% of the collected mosquitoes and the remaining 90.1% of the mosquitoes were Culex mosquitoes.

Conclusion

Despite detection of W. bancrofti DNA within mosquito specimens collected in three Kano urban LGAs, we were not able to find a subject with detectable level of CFA. Together with other evidence suggesting that LF transmission in urban areas in West Africa may not be of significant importance, the Federal Ministry of Health advised that two rounds of MDA be undertaken in the urban areas of Kano. It is recommended that the prevalence of W. bancrofti infection in the human and mosquito populations be re-assessed after a couple of years.

Mass drug administration (MDA) for the control of elephantiasis in the state of Kano in Nigeria, started in the year 2010. It was estimated that by 2015, the MDA programme will be extended to 11 remaining urban Local Government Areas (LGAs). However, MDA in urban areas faces specific challenges, the most prominent being the need to achieve coverage rates of 65% and above. As such MDA alone may not be sufficient to achieve the required programme impacts of reducing LF transmission to levels below which transmission cannot be sustained, and additional interventions may be required. This study set out to confirm the LF infection prevalence in the human and mosquito populations in three urban LGAs in Kano. Individuals were tested for signs of the disease, and mosquito samples were collected and also tested for the worms that cause the disease. The study revealed that of 981 people tested, none had circulating filarial antigen in the blood. However, the mosquitoes collected revealed the presence of the disease-causing worms, but the level of infection was low. The infection in the mosquitoes was also detected in two different types of mosquitoes. Based on the outcomes of this study, and evidence from other West African cities on the transmission of LF, the Federal Ministry of Health recommended that two rounds of MDA be undertaken in urban areas of Kano. A further reassessment after a couple of years is warranted.

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020

BACKGROUND

There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.

Assessing endgame strategies for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis: A model-based evaluation of the impact of DEC-medicated salt

Concern is growing regarding the prospects of achieving the global elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) by 2020. Apart from operational difficulties, evidence is emerging which points to unique challenges that could confound achieving LF elimination as extinction targets draw near. Diethylcarbamazine (DEC)-medicated salt may overcome these complex challenges posed by the endgame phase of parasite elimination. We calibrated LF transmission models using Bayesian data-model assimilation techniques to baseline and follow-up infection data from 11 communities that underwent DEC salt medication. The fitted models were used to assess the utility of DEC salt treatment for achieving LF elimination, in comparison with other current and proposed drug regimens, during the endgame phase. DEC-medicated salt consistently reduced microfilaria (mf) prevalence from 1% mf to site-specific elimination thresholds more quickly than the other investigated treatments. The application of DEC salt generally required less than one year to achieve site-specific LF elimination, while annual and biannual MDA options required significantly longer durations to achieve the same task. The use of DEC-medicated salt also lowered between-site variance in extinction timelines, especially when combined with vector control. These results indicate that the implementation of DEC-medicated salt, where feasible, can overcome endgame challenges facing LF elimination programs.

Lymphatic filariasis elimination efforts in Rufiji, southeastern Tanzania: decline in circulating filarial antigen prevalence in young school children after twelve rounds of mass drug administration and utilization of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets

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Interventions based on mass drug administration and insecticide-treated nets led to a marked decline in Wuchereria bancrofti circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in young school children.

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The official reported treatment coverage was relatively higher than the surveyed coverage.

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There has been an increase in ownership and utilization of insecticide-treated nets in the study areas.

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a parasitic infection transmitted by mosquito vectors, and in Sub-Saharan Africa it is caused by the nematode Wuchereria bancrofti. The disease has been targeted for global elimination with the annual mass drug administration (MDA) strategy. Vector control is known to play an important complementary role to MDA in reducing the transmission of LF. The effects of an MDA and insecticide-treated net intervention implemented in an endemic area of southeastern Tanzania are reported here.

Methods

A cross-sectional study assessing W. bancrofti circulating filarial antigen (CFA) was conducted in five primary schools in five different villages. Standard one pupils aged 6–9 years were screened for CFA using immunochromatographic test cards (ICT), with a total of 413 screened in 2012 and 659 in 2015. Just after CFA testing, the children were interviewed on their participation in the MDA campaign. Moreover, 246 heads of households in 2012 and 868 in 2015 were interviewed on their participation in MDA and utilization of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs).

Results

The prevalence of CFA for the 413 children tested in 2012 was 14.3%, while it was 0.0% for the 659 children tested in 2015. The Tanzanian National Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Programme reported annual treatment coverage for Rufiji District ranging from 54.3% to 94.0% during the years 2002–2014. The surveyed treatment was 51.6% in 2011 and 57.4% in 2014. With regard to LLINs, possession and utilization increased from 63.4% and 59.2%, respectively, in 2012, to 92.5% and 75.4%, respectively, in 2015.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that 12 rounds of MDA complemented with vector control through the use of insecticide-treated nets resulted in a marked reduction in W. bancrofti CFA in young school children.

Application of a household-based molecular xenomonitoring strategy to evaluate the lymphatic filariasis elimination program in Tamil Nadu, India

Background

The monitoring and evaluation of lymphatic filariasis (LF) has largely relied on the detection of antigenemia and antibodies in human populations. Molecular xenomonitoring (MX), the detection of parasite DNA/RNA in mosquitoes, may be an effective complementary method, particularly for detecting signals in low-level prevalence areas where Culex is the primary mosquito vector. This paper investigated the application of a household-based sampling method for MX in Tamil Nadu, India.

Methods

MX surveys were conducted in 2010 in two evaluation units (EUs): 1) a hotspot area, defined as sites with community microfilaria prevalence ≥1%, and 2) a larger area that also encompassed the hotspots. Households were systematically selected using a sampling interval proportional to the number of households in the EU. Mosquito pools were collected and analyzed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Two independent samples were taken in each EU to assess reproducibility of results. Follow-up surveys were conducted in 2012.

Results

In 2010, the proportion of positive pools in the hotspot EU was 49.3% compared to 23.4% in the overall EU. In 2012, pool positivity was significantly reduced to 24.3% and 6.5%, respectively (p<0.0001). Pool positivity based on independent samples taken from each EU in 2010 and 2012 were not significantly different except for the hotspot EU in 2012 (p = 0.009). The estimated prevalence of infection in mosquitoes, measured by PoolScreen, declined from 2.2–2.7% in 2010 to 0.6–1.2% in 2012 in the hotspot area and from 0.9–1.1% to 0.2–0.3% in the larger area.

Conclusions

The household-based sampling strategy for MX led to mostly reproducible results and supported the observed LF infection trends found in humans. MX has the potential to be a cost-effective, non-invasive monitoring and evaluation tool with sensitive detection of infection signals in low prevalence settings. Further investigation and application of this sampling strategy for MX are recommended to support its adoption as a standardized method for global LF elimination programs.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the world’s foremost debilitating infectious diseases with nearly 800 million people at risk of infection. Given that LF is a mosquito-borne disease, the use of molecular xenomonitoring (MX) to detect parasite DNA/RNA in mosquitoes can serve as a valuable tool for LF monitoring and evaluation, particularly in Culex vector areas. We investigated using MX in a low-level prevalence district of Tamil Nadu, India by applying a household-based sampling strategy to determine trap location sites. Two independent mosquito samples were collected in each of a higher human infection hotspot area (sites with community microfilaria prevalence ≥1%) and across a larger evaluation area that also encompassed the hotspots. Pooled results showed mostly reproducible outcomes in both settings and a significant higher pool positivity in the hotspot area. A follow-up survey conducted two years later reconfirmed these findings while also showing a reduction in pool positivity and estimated prevalence of infection in mosquitoes in both settings. The utilization of a household-based sampling strategy for MX proved effective and should be further validated in wider epidemiological settings.

Molecular xenomonitoring (MX) and transmission assessment survey (TAS) of lymphatic filariasis elimination in two villages, Menoufyia Governorate, Egypt

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is focally endemic in Egypt where the female mosquito, Culex pipiens, is responsible for its transmission. The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of implementation of the 13th round of MDA in two Egyptian villages in the Menoufyia Governorate area after failing the transmission assessment survey (TAS) in 2005 using two methods, and to decide whether it is safe to stop MDA in these, as well as in similar implementation units (IUs). To achieve this aim, both the immunochromatographic card test (ICT) and molecular xenomonitoring (MX) techniques were employed. A cross-sectional study was carried out in the villages in 2014 with two sections: Section (1): a school-based survey where all the primary school entrants (6-7) years of age were tested by ICT. Section (2): a mosquito-based survey where a total of 152 mosquito pools collected from Samalay and 167 from Kafr El-Tarainah were tested for the presence of the gDNA of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaria by real-time PCR assays. The results revealed that all primary school children in both villages were 100% negative for antigenemia. Also, all mosquito pools were 100% negative for the microfilarial gDNA.

Freedom from Infection: Confirming Interruption of Malaria Transmission

The global reductions in disease burden and the continued spread of drug and insecticide resistance make malaria elimination both viable and imperative, although this may be more easily achieved in some settings compared to others. Whilst the focus has been on optimal approaches to achieve elimination, less attention has been paid to how to measure the absence of malaria. Measuring the absence of transmission poses a specific challenge in that it involves proving a negative. The concept of freedom from infection, routinely used in veterinary epidemiology, can provide quantitative and reproducible estimates that, if infections were present above a predefined (low) threshold, they would be detected with a known uncertainty. Additionally, these methods are adaptable for both passively and actively collected data as well as combining information when multiple surveillance streams are available. Here we discuss the potential application of this approach to malaria.

Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in American Samoa: Evaluation of Molecular Xenomonitoring as a Surveillance Tool in the Endgame

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has made significant progress toward interrupting transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) through mass drug administration (MDA). Operational challenges in defining endpoints of elimination programs include the need to determine appropriate post-MDA surveillance strategies. As humans are the only reservoirs of LF parasites, one such strategy is molecular xenomonitoring (MX), the detection of filarial DNA in mosquitoes using molecular methods (PCR), to provide an indirect indicator of infected persons nearby. MX could potentially be used to evaluate program success, provide support for decisions to stop MDA, and conduct post-MDA surveillance. American Samoa has successfully completed MDA and passed WHO recommended Transmission Assessment Surveys in 2011 and 2015, but recent studies using spatial analysis of antigen (Ag) and antibody (Ab) prevalence in adults (aged ≥18 years) and entomological surveys showed evidence of possible ongoing transmission. This study evaluated MX as a surveillance tool in American Samoa by linking village-level results of published human and mosquito studies. Of 32 villages, seropositive persons for Og4C3 Ag were identified in 11 (34.4%), for Wb123 Ab in 18 (56.3%) and for Bm14 Ab in 27 (84.4%) of villages. Village-level seroprevalence ranged from 0–33%, 0–67% and 0–100% for Og4C3 Ag, Wb123 Ab and Bm14 Ab respectively. PCR-positive Aedes polynesiensis mosquitoes were found in 15 (47%) villages, and their presence was significantly associated with seropositive persons for Og4C3 Ag (67% vs 6%, p<0.001) and Wb123 Ab (87% vs 29%, p = 0.001), but not Bm14 Ab. In villages with persons seropositive for Og4C3 Ag and Wb123 Ab, PCR-positive Ae. polynesiensis were found in 90.9% and 72.2% respectively. In villages without seropositive persons for Og4C3 Ag or Wb123 Ab, PCR-positive Ae. polynesiensis were also absent in 94.1% and 70.6% of villages respectively. Our study provides promising evidence to support the potential usefulness of MX in post-MDA surveillance in an Aedes transmission area in the Pacific Islands setting.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is caused by infection with filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquito bites. Globally, 36 million are disfigured and disabled by complications such as severe swelling of the legs (elephantiasis) or scrotum (hydrocele). The Global Programme to Eliminate LF (GPELF) aims to interrupt disease transmission through mass drug administration (MDA), and to control illness and suffering in affected persons. Significant progress has been made toward eliminating LF from many parts of the world, including the Pacific Islands. Current challenges of the GPELF include identification of any residual hotspots of ongoing transmission, and effective strategies for early identification of any resurgence of infections. As humans are the only reservoirs of LF parasites and mosquitoes have short flight ranges, one such strategy is to monitor LF infection in mosquitoes as an indicator of ongoing transmission nearby. Mosquito monitoring could potentially be used to evaluate program success, provide support for decisions to stop MDA, and conduct post-MDA surveillance. Our study evaluated mosquito monitoring as a surveillance tool in American Samoa by linking village-level results of published studies of LF in humans and mosquitoes, and provides promising evidence to support the potential usefulness of mosquito monitoring in post-MDA surveillance the Pacific Islands.

Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background

India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this.

Methods

We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis.

Results

Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6–7 year-old children).

Conclusion

To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1768-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Heterogeneous dynamics, robustness/fragility trade-offs, and the eradication of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

The current WHO-led initiative to eradicate the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), based on single-dose annual mass drug administration (MDA) represents one of the largest health programs devised to reduce the burden of tropical diseases. However, despite the advances made in instituting large-scale MDA programs in affected countries, a challenge to meeting the goal of global eradication is the heterogeneous transmission of LF across endemic regions, and the impact that such complexity may have on the effort required to interrupt transmission in all socioecological settings.

METHODS

Here, we apply a Bayesian computer simulation procedure to fit transmission models of LF to field data assembled from 18 sites across the major LF endemic regions of Africa, Asia and Papua New Guinea, reflecting different ecological and vector characteristics, to investigate the impacts and implications of transmission heterogeneity and complexity on filarial infection dynamics, system robustness and control.

RESULTS

We find firstly that LF elimination thresholds varied significantly between the 18 study communities owing to site variations in transmission and initial ecological parameters. We highlight how this variation in thresholds lead to the need for applying variable durations of interventions across endemic communities for achieving LF elimination; however, a major new result is the finding that filarial population responses to interventions ultimately reflect outcomes of interplays between dynamics and the biological architectures and processes that generate robustness/fragility trade-offs in parasite transmission. Intervention simulations carried out in this study further show how understanding these factors is also key to the design of options that would effectively eliminate LF from all settings. In this regard, we find how including vector control into MDA programs may not only offer a countermeasure that will reliably increase system fragility globally across all settings and hence provide a control option robust to differential locality-specific transmission dynamics, but by simultaneously reducing transmission regime variability also permit more reliable macroscopic predictions of intervention effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results imply that a new approach, combining adaptive modelling of parasite transmission with the use of biological robustness as a design principle, is required if we are to both enhance understanding of complex parasitic infections and delineate options to facilitate their elimination effectively.

Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R0).

RESULTS

The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R0) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions.

CONCLUSIONS

LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.

Estimation of changes in the force of infection for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis in countries with schistosomiasis control initiative-assisted programmes

Background

The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI).

Methods

A previous model for the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni was adapted here to S. haematobium. These models were fitted to longitudinal cohort (infection intensity) monitoring and evaluation data. Changes in the FOI following up to three annual rounds of praziquantel were estimated for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) according to country, baseline endemicity and schistosome species. Since schistosomiasis transmission is known to be highly focal, changes in the FOI at a finer geographical scale (that of sentinel site) were also estimated for S. mansoni in Uganda.

Results

Substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI relative to baseline were recorded in the majority of, but not all, combinations of country, parasite species, and endemicity areas. At the finer geographical scale assessed within Uganda, marked heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of the relative changes in FOI was observed that would not have been appreciated by a coarser-scale analysis.

Conclusions

Reductions in the rate at which humans acquire schistosomes have been achieved in many areas of SSA countries assisted by the SCI, while challenges in effectively reducing transmission persist in others. Understanding the underlying heterogeneity in the impact and performance of the control intervention at the level of the transmission site will become increasingly important for programmes transitioning from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. Such analyses will require a fine-scale approach. The lack of association found between programmatic variables, such as therapeutic treatment coverage (recorded at district level) and changes in FOI (at sentinel site level) is discussed and recommendations are made.

Bayesian calibration of simulation models for supporting management of the elimination of the macroparasitic disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

Background

Mathematical models of parasite transmission can help integrate a large body of information into a consistent framework, which can then be used for gaining mechanistic insights and making predictions. However, uncertainty, spatial variability and complexity, can hamper the use of such models for decision making in parasite management programs.

Methods

We have adapted a Bayesian melding framework for calibrating simulation models to address the need for robust modelling tools that can effectively support management of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination in diverse endemic settings. We applied this methodology to LF infection and vector biting data from sites across the major LF endemic regions in order to quantify model parameters, and generate reliable predictions of infection dynamics along with credible intervals for modelled output variables. We used the locally calibrated models to estimate breakpoint values for various indicators of parasite transmission, and simulate timelines to parasite extinction as a function of local variations in infection dynamics and breakpoints, and effects of various currently applied and proposed LF intervention strategies.

Results

We demonstrate that as a result of parameter constraining by local data, breakpoint values for all the major indicators of LF transmission varied significantly between the sites investigated. Intervention simulations using the fitted models showed that as a result of heterogeneity in local transmission and extinction dynamics, timelines to parasite elimination in response to the current Mass Drug Administration (MDA) and various proposed MDA with vector control strategies also varied significantly between the study sites. Including vector control, however, markedly reduced the duration of interventions required to achieve elimination as well as decreased the risk of recrudescence following stopping of MDA.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated how a Bayesian data-model assimilation framework can enhance the use of transmission models for supporting reliable decision making in the management of LF elimination. Extending this framework for delivering predictions in settings either lacking or with only sparse data to inform the modelling process, however, will require development of procedures to estimate and use spatio-temporal variations in model parameters and inputs directly, and forms the next stage of the work reported here.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1132-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: modelling frameworks, lessons learned and future directions

Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes.

Molecular epidemiology, phylogeny and evolution of the filarial nematode Wuchereria bancrofti

Wuchereria bancrofti (Wb) is the most widely distributed of the three nematodes known to cause lymphatic filariasis (LF), the other two being Brugia malayi and Brugia timori. Current tools available to monitor LF are limited to diagnostic tests targeting DNA repeats, filarial antigens, and anti-filarial antibodies. While these tools are useful for detection and surveillance, elimination programs have yet to take full advantage of molecular typing for inferring infection history, strain fingerprinting, and evolution. To date, molecular typing approaches have included whole mitochondrial genomes, genotyping, targeted sequencing, and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPDs). These studies have revealed much about Wb biology. For example, in one study in Papua New Guinea researchers identified 5 major strains that were widespread and many minor strains some of which exhibit geographic stratification. Genome data, while rare, has been utilized to reconstruct evolutionary relationships among taxa of the Onchocercidae (the clade of filarial nematodes) and identify gene synteny. Their phylogeny reveals that speciation from the common ancestor of both B. malayi and Wb occurred around 5-6 millions years ago with shared ancestry to other filarial nematodes as recent as 15 million years ago. These discoveries hold promise for gene discovery and identifying drug targets in species that are more amenable to in vivo experiments. Continued technological developments in whole genome sequencing and data analysis will likely replace many other forms of molecular typing, multiplying the amount of data available on population structure, genetic diversity, and phylogenetics. Once widely available, the addition of population genetic data from genomic studies should hasten the elimination of LF parasites like Wb. Infectious disease control programs have benefited greatly from population genetics data and recently from population genomics data. However, while there is currently a surplus of data for diseases like malaria and HIV, there is a scarcity of this data for filarial nematodes. With the falling cost of genome sequencing, research on filarial nematodes could benefit from the addition of population genetics statistics and phylogenetics especially in dealing with elimination programs. A comprehensive review focusing on population genetics of filarial nematode does not yet exist. Here our goal is to provide a current overview of the molecular epidemiology of W. bancrofti (Wb) the primary causative agent of LF. We begin by reviewing studies utilizing molecular typing techniques with specific focus on genomic and population datasets. Next, we used whole mitochondrial genome data to construct a phylogeny and examine the evolutionary history of the Onchocercidae. Then, we provide a perspective to aid in understanding how population genetic techniques translate to modern epidemiology. Finally, we introduce the concept of genomic epidemiology and provide some examples that will aid in future studies of Wb.

Decline in lymphatic filariasis transmission with annual mass drug administration using DEC with and without albendazole over a 10year period in India

The National Programme for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis is underway in the endemic districts of Tamil Nadu State, South India, since 2001. Annual mass drug administration (MDA) was carried out by the state health department to all eligible individuals. The impact of MDAs on transmission parameters was evaluated in 2 revenue blocks, viz, one with DEC alone and the other with a combination of albendazole. After 10 years with 6 annual MDAs, the transmission indices reached low levels in both treatment arms, but still persisted. However, the DEC alone arm showed higher transmission rates, compared to the DEC+ALB arm. Few villages which demonstrated persistent transmission need to be targeted with an additional control measure viz, vector control, to achieve LF elimination. It is evident from the 10 year period of the study that inclusion of albendazole along with DEC has significantly reduced the transmission indices to almost nil level, as compared to DEC alone.

Insecticidal bed nets and filariasis transmission in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND

Global efforts to eliminate lymphatic filariasis are based on the annual mass administration of antifilarial drugs to reduce the microfilaria reservoir available to the mosquito vector. Insecticide-treated bed nets are being widely used in areas in which filariasis and malaria are coendemic.

METHODS

We studied five villages in which five annual mass administrations of antifilarial drugs, which were completed in 1998, reduced the transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti, one of the nematodes that cause lymphatic filariasis. A total of 21,899 anopheles mosquitoes were collected for 26 months before and 11 to 36 months after bed nets treated with long-lasting insecticide were distributed in 2009. We evaluated the status of filarial infection and the presence of W. bancrofti DNA in anopheline mosquitoes before and after the introduction of insecticide-treated bed nets. We then used a model of population dynamics to estimate the probabilities of transmission cessation.

RESULTS

Village-specific rates of bites from anopheline mosquitoes ranged from 6.4 to 61.3 bites per person per day before the bed-net distribution and from 1.1 to 9.4 bites for 11 months after distribution (P<0.001). During the same period, the rate of detection of W. bancrofti in anopheline mosquitoes decreased from 1.8% to 0.4% (P=0.005), and the rate of detection of filarial DNA decreased from 19.4% to 14.9% (P=0.13). The annual transmission potential was 5 to 325 infective larvae inoculated per person per year before the bed-net distribution and 0 after the distribution. Among all five villages with a prevalence of microfilariae of 2 to 38%, the probability of transmission cessation increased from less than 1.0% before the bed-net distribution to a range of 4.9 to 95% in the 11 months after distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Vector control with insecticide-treated bed nets is a valuable tool for W. bancrofti elimination in areas in which anopheline mosquitoes transmit the parasite. (Funded by the U.S. Public Health Service and the National Institutes of Health.).

Lymphatic filariasis control in Tanzania: effect of six rounds of mass drug administration with ivermectin and albendazole on infection and transmission

Background

Control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) with a combination of ivermectin and albendazole, in order to interrupt transmission. We present findings from a detailed study on the effect of six rounds of MDA with this drug combination as implemented by the National Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Programme (NLFEP) in a highly endemic rural area of north-eastern Tanzania.

Methods

The effect of treatment on transmission and human infection was monitored in a community- and a school-based study during an 8-year period (one pre-intervention and 7 post-intervention years) from 2003 to 2011.

Results

Before intervention, 24.5% of the community population had microfilariae (mf) in the blood, 53.3% had circulating filarial antigens (CFA) and 78.9% had specific antibodies to the recombinant filarial antigen Bm14. One year after the sixth MDA, these values had decreased considerably to 2.7%, 19.6% and 27.5%, respectively. During the same period, the CFA prevalence among new intakes of Standard 1 pupils in 10 primary schools decreased from 25.2% to 5.6%. In line with this, transmission by the three vectors (Anopheles gambiae, An. funestus and Culex quinquefasciatus) as determined by dissection declined sharply (overall vector infectivity rate by 99.3% and mean monthly transmission potential by 99.2% between pre-intervention and fifth post-intervention period). A major shift in vector species composition, from predominantly anopheline to almost exclusively culicine was observed over the years. This may be largely unrelated to the MDAs but may have important implications for the epidemiology of LF in the area.

Conclusions

Six MDAs caused considerable decrease in all the measured indices for transmission and human infection. In spite of this, indices were still relatively high in the late period of the study, and it may take a long time to reach the recommended cut-off levels for interruption of transmission unless extra efforts are made. These should include increased engagement of the target population in the control activities, to ensure higher treatment coverage. It is expected that the recent initiative to distribute insecticide impregnated bed nets to every household in the area will also contribute towards reaching the goal of successful LF elimination.

Sequential modelling of the effects of mass drug treatments on anopheline-mediated lymphatic filariasis infection in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted by the WHO for global eradication leading to the implementation of large scale intervention programs based on annual mass drug administrations (MDA) worldwide. Recent work has indicated that locality-specific bio-ecological complexities affecting parasite transmission may complicate the prediction of LF extinction endpoints, casting uncertainty on the achievement of this initiative. One source of difficulty is the limited quantity and quality of data used to parameterize models of parasite transmission, implying the important need to update initially-derived parameter values. Sequential analysis of longitudinal data following annual MDAs will also be important to gaining new understanding of the persistence dynamics of LF. Here, we apply a Bayesian statistical-dynamical modelling framework that enables assimilation of information in human infection data recorded from communities in Papua New Guinea that underwent annual MDAs, into our previously developed model of parasite transmission, in order to examine these questions in LF ecology and control.

RESULTS

Biological parameters underlying transmission obtained by fitting the model to longitudinal data remained stable throughout the study period. This enabled us to reliably reconstruct the observed baseline data in each community. Endpoint estimates also showed little variation. However, the updating procedure showed a shift towards higher and less variable values for worm kill but not for any other drug-related parameters. An intriguing finding is that the stability in key biological parameters could be disrupted by a significant reduction in the vector biting rate prevailing in a locality.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal invariance of biological parameters in the face of intervention perturbations indicates a robust adaptation of LF transmission to local ecological conditions. The results imply that understanding the mechanisms that underlie locally adapted transmission dynamics will be integral to identifying points of system fragility, and thus countermeasures to reliably facilitate LF extinction both locally and globally.

Epidemiological assessment of eight rounds of mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis in India: implications for monitoring and evaluation

BACKGROUND

Monitoring and evaluation guidelines of the programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis require impact assessments in at least one sentinel and one spot-check site in each implementation unit (IU). Transmission assessment surveys (TAS) that assess antigenaemia (Ag) in children in IUs that have completed at least five rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) each with >65% coverage and with microfilaria (Mf) levels <1% in the monitored sites form the basis for stopping the MDA. Despite its rigour, this multi-step process is likely to miss sites with transmission potential ('hotspots') and its statistical assumptions for sampling and threshold levels for decision-making have not been validated. We addressed these issues in a large-scale epidemiological study in two primary health centres in Thanjavur district, India, endemic for bancroftian filariasis that had undergone eight rounds of MDA.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The prevalence and intensity of Mf (per 60 µl blood) were 0.2% and 0.004 respectively in the survey that covered >70% of 50,363 population. The corresponding values for Ag were 2.3% and 17.3 Ag-units respectively. Ag-prevalence ranged from 0.7 to 0.9%, in children (2-10 years) and 2.7 to 3.0% in adults. Although the Mf-levels in the survey and the sentinel/spot check sites were <1% and Ag-level was <2% in children, we identified 7 "residual" (Mf-prevalence ≥ 1%, irrespective of Ag-status in children) and 17 "transmission" (at least one Ag-positive child born during the MDA period) hotspots. Antigenaemic persons were clustered both at household and site levels. We identified an Ag-prevalence of ~1% in children (equivalent to 0.4% community Mf-prevalence) as a possible threshold value for stopping MDA.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Existence of 'hotspots' and spatial clustering of infections in the study area indicate the need for developing good surveillance strategies for detecting 'hotspots', adopting evidence-based sampling strategies and evaluation unit size for TAS.

Malaria and lymphatic filariasis: the case for integrated vector management

The global programmes to eliminate both malaria and lymphatic filariasis are facing operational and technical challenges. Available data show that the use of treated or untreated bednets and indoor residual spraying for malaria control concomitantly reduced filarial rates. In turn, mass drug administration campaigns against lymphatic filariasis can be combined with the distribution of insecticide-treated bednets. Combining these disease control efforts could lead to more efficient use of resources, more accurate attribution of effects, and more effective control of both diseases. Systematic integration requires coordination at all levels, mapping of coendemic areas, and comprehensive monitoring and evaluation.

Maintaining effective mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis through in-process monitoring in Sierra Leone

Background

Since 2007 Sierra Leone has conducted mass drug administration (MDA) for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) implemented by unpaid community health volunteers (CHVs). Other health campaigns such as Mother and Child Health Weeks (MCHW) pay for services to be implemented at community level and these persons are then known as community health workers (CHWs). In 2010, the LF MDA in the 12 districts of the Southern, Northern and Eastern Provinces un-expectantly coincided with universal distribution of Long Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets (LLITNs) during the MCHW. In-process monitoring of LF MDA was performed to ensure effective coverage was attained in hard to reach sites (HTR) in both urban and rural locations where vulnerable populations reside.

Methods

Independent monitors interviewed individuals eligible for LF MDA and tallied those who recalled having taken ivermectin and albendazole, calculated program coverage and reported results daily by phone. Monitoring of coverage in HTR sites in the 4 most rapidly urbanizing towns was performed after 4 weeks of LF MDA and again after 8 weeks throughout all 12 districts. End process monitoring was performed in randomly selected HTR sites not previously sampled throughout all 12 districts and compared to coverage calculated from the pre-MDA census and reported treatments.

Results

Only one town had reached effective program coverage (≥80%) after 4 weeks following which CHWs were recruited for LF MDA in all district headquarter towns. After 8 weeks only 4 of 12 districts had reached effective coverage so LF MDA was extended for a further month in all districts. By 12 weeks effective program coverage had been reached in all districts except Port Loko and there was no significant difference between those interviewed in communities versus households or by sex. Effective epidemiological coverage (≥65%) was reported in all districts and overall was significantly higher in males versus females.

Conclusions

The challenges to LF MDA included the late delivery in country of ivermectin, the availability and motivation of unpaid CHVs, concurrent LLITN distribution and the MCHW, remuneration for CHWs, rapid urbanization and employment seeking population migrations. 'In process' monitoring ensured modifications of LF MDA were made in a timely manner to ensure effective coverage was finally attained even in HTR locations.

The impact of a filariasis control program on Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND

Annual mass drug administration (MDA) over five years is the WHO's recommended strategy to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF). Some experts, however, consider that longer periods of treatment might be necessary in certain high prevalence and transmission environments based upon past unsuccessful field experience and modelling.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To evaluate predictors of success in a LF control program we conducted an ecological study during a pre-existing MDA program. We studied 27 villages in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea, from two areas with different infection rates before MDA. We undertook surveys to collect information on variables potentially having an influence on the outcome of the program, including epidemiological (baseline prevalence of infection, immigration rate), entomological (vector density) and operational (treatment coverage, vector control strategies) variables. The success in a village was defined using variables related to the infection (circulating filarial antigenemia prevalence < 1%) and transmission (antigenemia prevalence < 1 in 1000 children born since start of MDA). 8709 people were involved in the MDA program and average coverage rates were around 70%. The overall prevalence of filariasis fell from an initial 17.91% to 3.76% at round 5 (p < 0.001). Viewed on a village by village basis, 12/27 (44%) villages achieved success. In multivariate analysis, low baseline prevalence was the only factor predicting both success in reducing infection rates (OR 19,26; CI 95% 1,12 to 331,82) and success in preventing new infections (OR 27,44; CI 95% 1,05 to 719,6). Low vector density and the use of an optimal vector control strategy were also associated with success in reducing infection rates, but this did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results provide the data that supports the recommendation that high endemic areas may require longer duration MDA programs, or alternative control strategies.

Effect of annual mass administration of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole on bancroftian filariasis in five villages in south India

Annual mass drug administration (MDA) is the recommended strategy for lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination. We assessed the effect of six rounds of mass administration of diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (ALB) on microfilaria (Mf) prevalence and intensity and vector infection and infectivity rates and circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) in a group of five villages in south India, endemic for Culex-transmitted bancroftian filariasis. During different rounds of MDA, 60-70% of the eligible population (>15 kg body weight) was treated. The MDA reduced the Mf prevalence from 8.10% (CI 6.18-10.01) to 1.01% (CI 0.31-1.71) (P<0.05) and geometric mean intensity of Mf from 0.31 (CI 0.22-0.40) to 0.02 (CI 0.00-0.04) (P<0.05), equivalent to a fall of 86% and 94% respectively. The vector infection and infectivity rates declined from 13.11% (CI 11.52-14.70) to 0.78% (CI 0.16-1.40) (P<0.05) and 1.04% (CI 0.56-1.52) to 0.13% (CI 0.00-0.39) (P<0.05), respectively. Four out of the five villages recorded <0.5% Mf prevalence and 0% vector infection rate. Circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) fell by 86% in the total population and 100% in 1-10 year old children. One of the five villages, which showed the highest baseline vector infection rate, showed >1.0% Mf rate. The results suggest that six rounds of mass administration of DEC and ALB, with 60-70% treatment coverage, is likely to achieve total interruption of transmission and elimination of LF in the majority of villages.

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

Geographic and ecologic heterogeneity in elimination thresholds for the major vector-borne helminthic disease, lymphatic filariasis

Background

Large-scale intervention programmes to control or eliminate several infectious diseases are currently underway worldwide. However, a major unresolved question remains: what are reasonable stopping points for these programmes? Recent theoretical work has highlighted how the ecological complexity and heterogeneity inherent in the transmission dynamics of macroparasites can result in elimination thresholds that vary between local communities. Here, we examine the empirical evidence for this hypothesis and its implications for the global elimination of the major macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, by applying a novel Bayesian computer simulation procedure to fit a dynamic model of the transmission of this parasitic disease to field data from nine villages with different ecological and geographical characteristics. Baseline lymphatic filariasis microfilarial age-prevalence data from three geographically distinct endemic regions, across which the major vector populations implicated in parasite transmission also differed, were used to fit and calibrate the relevant vector-specific filariasis transmission models. Ensembles of parasite elimination thresholds, generated using the Bayesian fitting procedure, were then examined in order to evaluate site-specific heterogeneity in the values of these thresholds and investigate the ecological factors that may underlie such variability

Results

We show that parameters of density-dependent functions relating to immunity, parasite establishment, as well as parasite aggregation, varied significantly between the nine different settings, contributing to locally varying filarial elimination thresholds. Parasite elimination thresholds predicted for the settings in which the mosquito vector is anopheline were, however, found to be higher than those in which the mosquito is culicine, substantiating our previous theoretical findings. The results also indicate that the probability that the parasite will be eliminated following six rounds of Mass Drug Administration with diethylcarbamazine and albendazole decreases markedly but non-linearly as the annual biting rate and parasite reproduction number increases.

Conclusions

This paper shows that specific ecological conditions in a community can lead to significant local differences in population dynamics and, consequently, elimination threshold estimates for lymphatic filariasis. These findings, and the difficulty of measuring the key local parameters (infection aggregation and acquired immunity) governing differences in transmission thresholds between communities, mean that it is necessary for us to rethink the utility of the current anticipatory approaches for achieving the elimination of filariasis both locally and globally.

Mathematical modeling and the epidemiological research process

The authors of this paper advocate for the expanded use of mathematical models in epidemiology and provide an overview of the principles of mathematical modeling. Mathematical models can be used throughout the epidemiological research process. Initially they may help to refine study questions by visually expressing complex systems, directing literature searches, and identifying sensitive variables. In the study design phase, models can be used to test sampling strategies, to estimate sample size and power, and to predict outcomes for studies impractical due to time or ethical considerations. Once data are collected, models can assist in the interpretation of results, the exploration of causal pathways, and the combined analysis of data from multiple sources. Finally, models are commonly used in the process of applying research findings to public health practice by estimating population risk, predicting the effects of interventions, and contributing to the evaluation of ongoing programs. Mathematical modeling has the potential to make significant contributions to the field of epidemiology by enhancing the research process, serving as a tool for communicating findings to policymakers, and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration.

The role of monitoring mosquito infection in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

In addition to monitoring infection in the human host, there is also a need to assess larval infection in the vector mosquito population to evaluate the success of interventions for eliminating lymphatic filariasis transmission from endemic communities. Here, we review the current status of the available tools for quantifying vector infection and existing knowledge and evidence regarding potential infection thresholds for determining transmission interruption, to assess the potential for using vector infection monitoring as a tool for evaluating the success of filariasis treatment programmes.