Malaria Hotspots: Is There Epidemiological Evidence for Fine-Scale Spatial Targeting of Interventions?

Mapping malaria transmission foci in Northeast Thailand from 2011 to 2021: approaching elimination in a hypoendemic area

BACKGROUND

Thailand is approaching local elimination of malaria in the eastern provinces. It has successfully reduced the number of cases over the past decade, but there are persistent transmission hot spots in and around forests. This study aimed to use data from the malaria surveillance system to describe the spatiotemporal trends of malaria in Northeast Thailand and fine-scale patterns in locally transmitted cases between 2011 and 2021.

METHODS

Case data was stratified based on likely location of infection and parasite species. Annual Parasite Index per 1000 population (API) was calculated for different categories. Time series decomposition was performed to identify trends and seasonal patterns. Statistically significant clusters of high (hot spots) and low (cold spots) API were identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. The stability of those hot spots and the absolute change in the proportion of API density from baseline were compared by case type.

RESULTS

The total number of confirmed cases experienced a non-linear decline by 96.6%, from 1061 in 2011 to 36 in 2021. There has been a decline in both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum case numbers, with only four confirmed P. falciparum cases over the last two years-a 98.89% drop from 180 in 2011. API was generally higher in Si Sa Ket province, which had peaks every 2-3 years. There was a large outbreak in Ubon Ratchathani in 2014-2016 which had a high proportion of P. falciparum reported. The proportion of cases classified increased over the study period, and the proportion of cases classed as indigenous to the village of residence increased from 0.2% to 33.3%. There were stable hot spots of indigenous and imported cases in the south of Si Sa Ket and southeast of Ubon Ratchathani. Plasmodium vivax hot spots were observed into recent years, while those of P. falciparum decreased to zero in Ubon in 2020 and emerged in the eastern part in 2021, the same year that P. falciparum hot spots in Si Sa Ket reached zero.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a large, non-linear decline in the number of malaria cases reported and an increasing proportion of cases are classed as indigenous to the patient's village of residence. Stable hot spots of ongoing transmission in the forested border areas were identified, with transmission likely persisting because of remote location and high-risk forest-going behaviours. Future efforts should include cross-border collaboration and continued targeting of high-risk behaviours to reduce the risk of imported cases seeding local transmission.

Malaria transmission heterogeneity in different eco-epidemiological areas of western Kenya: a region-wide observational and risk classification study for adaptive intervention planning

BACKGROUND

Understanding of malaria ecology is a prerequisite for designing locally adapted control strategies in resource-limited settings. The aim of this study was to utilize the spatial heterogeneity in malaria transmission for the designing of adaptive interventions.

METHODS

Field collections of clinical malaria incidence, asymptomatic Plasmodium infection, and malaria vector data were conducted from 108 randomly selected clusters which covered different landscape settings including irrigated farming, seasonal flooding area, lowland dryland farming, and highlands in western Kenya. Spatial heterogeneity of malaria was analyzed and classified into different eco-epidemiological zones.

RESULTS

There was strong heterogeneity and detected hot/cold spots in clinical malaria incidence, Plasmodium prevalence, and vector abundance. The study area was classified into four zones based on clinical malaria incidence, parasite prevalence, vector density, and altitude. The two irrigated zones have either the highest malaria incidence, parasite prevalence, or the highest malaria vector density; the highlands have the lowest vector density and parasite prevalence; and the dryland and flooding area have the average clinical malaria incidence, parasite prevalence and vector density. Different zones have different vector species, species compositions and predominant species. Both indoor and outdoor transmission may have contributed to the malaria transmission in the area. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.), Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles funestus s.s., and Anopheles leesoni had similar human blood index and malaria parasite sporozoite rate.

CONCLUSION

The multi-transmission-indicator-based eco-epidemiological zone classifications will be helpful for making decisions on locally adapted malaria interventions.

Using serological diagnostics to characterize remaining high-incidence pockets of malaria in forest-fringe Cambodia

BACKGROUND

Over the last decades, the number of malaria cases has drastically reduced in Cambodia. As the overall prevalence of malaria in Cambodia declines, residual malaria transmission becomes increasingly fragmented over smaller remote regions. The aim of this study was to get an insight into the burden and epidemiological parameters of Plasmodium infections on the forest-fringe of Cambodia.

METHODS

950 participants were recruited in the province of Mondulkiri in Cambodia and followed up from 2018 to 2020. Whole-blood samples were processed for Plasmodium spp. identification by PCR as well as for a serological immunoassay. A risk factor analysis was conducted for Plasmodium vivax PCR-detected infections throughout the study, and for P. vivax seropositivity at baseline. To evaluate the predictive effect of seropositivity at baseline on subsequent PCR-positivity, an analysis of P. vivax infection-free survival time stratified by serological status at baseline was performed.

RESULTS

Living inside the forest significantly increased the odds of P. vivax PCR-positivity by a factor of 18.3 (95% C.I. 7.7-43.5). Being a male adult was also a significant predictor of PCR-positivity. Similar risk profiles were identified for P. vivax seropositivity. The survival analysis showed that serological status at baseline significantly correlated with subsequent infection. Serology is most informative outside of the forest, where 94.0% (95% C.I. 90.7-97.4%) of seronegative individuals survived infection-free, compared to 32.4% (95% C.I.: 22.6-46.6%) of seropositive individuals.

CONCLUSION

This study justifies the need for serological diagnostic assays to target interventions in this region, particularly in demographic groups where a lot of risk heterogeneity persists, such as outside of the forest.

Spatially-targeted tuberculosis screening has limited impact beyond household contact tracing in Lima, Peru: A model-based analysis

Mathematical models have suggested that spatially-targeted screening interventions for tuberculosis may efficiently accelerate disease control, but empirical data supporting these findings are limited. Previous models demonstrating substantial impacts of these interventions have typically simulated large-scale screening efforts and have not attempted to capture the spatial distribution of tuberculosis in households and communities at a high resolution. Here, we calibrate an individual-based model to the locations of case notifications in one district of Lima, Peru. We estimate the incremental efficiency and impact of a spatially-targeted interventions used in combination with household contact tracing (HHCT). Our analysis reveals that HHCT is relatively efficient with a median of 40 (Interquartile Range: 31.7 to 49.9) household contacts required to be screened to detect a single case of active tuberculosis. However, HHCT has limited population impact, producing a median incidence reduction of only 3.7% (Interquartile Range: 5.8% to 1.9%) over 5 years. In comparison, spatially targeted screening (which we modeled as active case finding within high tuberculosis prevalence areas 100 m2 grid cell) is far less efficient, requiring evaluation of ≈12 times the number of individuals as HHCT to find a single individual with active tuberculosis. Furthermore, the addition of the spatially targeted screening effort produced only modest additional reductions in tuberculosis incidence over the 5 year period (≈1.3%) in tuberculosis incidence. In summary, we found that HHCT is an efficient approach for tuberculosis case finding, but has limited population impact. Other screening approaches which target areas of high tuberculosis prevalence are less efficient, and may have limited impact unless very large numbers of individuals can be screened.

Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

In malaria endemic regions, transmission of Plasmodium falciparum parasites is often seasonal with very low transmission during the dry season and high transmission in the wet season. Parasites survive the dry season within some individuals who experience prolonged carriage of parasites and are thought to 'seed' infection in the next transmission season.

METHODS

Dry season carriers and their role in the subsequent transmission season are characterized using a combination of mathematical simulations and data analysis of previously described data from a longitudinal study in Mali of individuals aged 3 months-12 years (n = 579).

RESULTS

Simulating the life-history of individuals experiencing repeated exposure to infection predicts that dry season carriage is more likely in the oldest, most exposed and most immune individuals. This hypothesis is supported by the data from Mali, which shows that carriers are significantly older, experience a higher biting rate at the beginning of the transmission season and develop clinical malaria later than non-carriers. Further, since the most exposed individuals in a community are most likely to be dry season carriers, this is predicted to enable a more than twofold faster spread of parasites into the mosquito population at the start of the subsequent wet season.

CONCLUSIONS

Carriage of malaria parasites over the months-long dry season in Mali is most likely in the older, more exposed and more immune children. These children may act as super-spreaders facilitating the fast spread of parasites at the beginning of the next transmission season.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar, 2015-2020

BACKGROUND

Despite high coverage of malaria interventions, malaria elimination in Zanzibar remains elusive, with the annual number of cases increasing gradually over the last 3 years.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of the study were to (1) assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar between 2015 and 2020 and (2) identify malaria hotspots that would allow Zanzibar to develop an epidemiological stratification for more effective and granular intervention targeting.

METHODS

In this study, we analysed data routinely collected by Zanzibar's Malaria Case Notification (MCN) system. The system collects sociodemographic and epidemiological data from all malaria cases. Cases are passively detected at health facilities (ie, primary index cases) and through case follow-up and reactive case detection (ie, secondary cases). Analyses were performed to identify the spatial heterogeneity of case reporting at shehia (ward) level during transmission seasons.

RESULTS

From 1 January 2015 to 30 April 2020, the MCN system reported 22 686 index cases. Number of cases reported showed a declining trends from 2015 to 2016, followed by an increase from 2017 to 2020. More than 40% of cases had a travel history outside Zanzibar in the month prior to testing positive for malaria. The proportion of followed up index cases was approximately 70% for all years. Out of 387 shehias, 79 (20.4%) were identified as malaria hotspots in any given year; these hotspots reported 52% of all index cases during the study period. Of the 79 hotspot shehias, 12 were hotspots in more than 4 years, that is, considered temporally stable, reporting 14.5% of all index cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm that the scale-up of malaria interventions has greatly reduced malaria transmission in Zanzibar since 2006. Analyses identified hotspots, some of which were stable across multiple years. Malaria efforts should progress from a universal intervention coverage approach to an approach that is more tailored to a select number of hotspot shehias.

Population heterogeneity in Plasmodium vivax relapse risk

A key characteristic of Plasmodium vivax parasites is their ability to adopt a latent liver-stage form called hypnozoites, able to cause relapse of infection months or years after a primary infection. Relapses of infection through hypnozoite activation are a major contributor to blood-stage infections in P vivax endemic regions and are thought to be influenced by factors such as febrile infections which may cause temporary changes in hypnozoite activation leading to 'temporal heterogeneity' in reactivation risk. In addition, immunity and variation in exposure to infection may be longer-term characteristics of individuals that lead to 'population heterogeneity' in hypnozoite activation. We analyze data on risk of P vivax in two previously published data sets from Papua New Guinea and the Thailand-Myanmar border region. Modeling different mechanisms of reactivation risk, we find strong evidence for population heterogeneity, with 30% of patients having almost 70% of all P vivax infections. Model fitting and data analysis indicates that individual variation in relapse risk is a primary source of heterogeneity of P vivax risk of recurrences. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01640574, NCT01074905, NCT02143934.

The use of drones for mosquito surveillance and control

In recent years, global health security has been threatened by the geographical expansion of vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue, yellow fever, Zika and chikungunya. For a range of these vector-borne diseases, an increase in residual (exophagic) transmission together with ecological heterogeneity in everything from weather to local human migration and housing to mosquito species' behaviours presents many challenges to effective mosquito control. The novel use of drones (or uncrewed aerial vehicles) may play a major role in the success of mosquito surveillance and control programmes in the coming decades since the global landscape of mosquito-borne diseases and disease dynamics fluctuates frequently and there could be serious public health consequences if the issues of insecticide resistance and outdoor transmission are not adequately addressed. For controlling both aquatic and adult stages, for several years now remote sensing data have been used together with predictive modelling for risk, incidence and detection of transmission hot spots and landscape profiles in relation to mosquito-borne pathogens. The field of drone-based remote sensing is under continuous change due to new technology development, operation regulations and innovative applications. In this review we outline the opportunities and challenges for integrating drones into vector surveillance (i.e. identification of breeding sites or mapping micro-environmental composition) and control strategies (i.e. applying larval source management activities or deploying genetically modified agents) across the mosquito life-cycle. We present a five-step systematic environmental mapping strategy that we recommend be undertaken in locations where a drone is expected to be used, outline the key considerations for incorporating drone or other Earth Observation data into vector surveillance and provide two case studies of the advantages of using drones equipped with multispectral cameras. In conclusion, recent developments mean that drones can be effective for accurately conducting surveillance, assessing habitat suitability for larval and/or adult mosquitoes and implementing interventions. In addition, we briefly discuss the need to consider permissions, costs, safety/privacy perceptions and community acceptance for deploying drone activities.

Relationships between biological age, distance from aquatic habitats and pyrethroid resistance status of Anopheles funestus mosquitoes in south-eastern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission can be highly heterogeneous between and within localities, and is influenced by factors such as survival and biting frequencies of Anopheles mosquitoes. This study investigated the relationships between the biological age, distance from aquatic habitats and pyrethroid resistance status of Anopheles funestus mosquitoes, which currently dominate malaria transmission in south-east Tanzania. The study also examined how such relationships may influence malaria transmission and control.

METHODS

Female An. funestus were collected in houses located 50-100 m, 150-200 m or over 200 m from the nearest known aquatic habitats. The mosquitoes were exposed to 1×, 5× and 10× the diagnostic doses of deltamethrin or permethrin, or to the synergist, piperonyl butoxide (PBO) followed by the pyrethroids, then monitored for 24 h-mortality. Ovaries of exposed and non-exposed mosquitoes were dissected to assess parity as a proxy for biological age. Adults emerging from larval collections in the same villages were tested against the same insecticides at 3-5, 8-11 or 17-20 days old.

FINDINGS

Mosquitoes collected nearest to the aquatic habitats (50-100 m) had the lowest mortalities compared to other distances, with a maximum of 51% mortality at 10× permethrin. For the age-synchronized mosquitoes collected as larvae, the insecticide-induced mortality assessed at both the diagnostic and multiplicative doses (1×, 5× and 10×) increased with mosquito age. The highest mortalities at 1× doses were observed among the oldest mosquitoes (17-20 days). At 10× doses, mortalities were 99% (permethrin) and 76% (deltamethrin) among 8-11 day-olds compared to 80% (permethrin) and 58% (deltamethrin) among 3-5 day-olds. Pre-exposure to PBO increased the potency of both pyrethroids. The proportion of parous females was highest among mosquitoes collected farthest from the habitats.

CONCLUSION

In this specific setting, older An. funestus and those collected farthest from the aquatic habitats (near the centre of the village) were more susceptible to pyrethroids than the younger ones and those caught nearest to the habitats. These findings suggest that pyrethroid-based interventions may remain at least moderately effective despite widespread pyrethroid-resistance, by killing the older, less-resistant and potentially-infective mosquitoes. Further studies should investigate how and whether these observations could be exploited to optimize malaria control in different settings.

Spatio-temporal monitoring of health facility-level malaria trends in Zambia and adaptive scaling for operational intervention

Background

The spatial and temporal variability inherent in malaria transmission within countries implies that targeted interventions for malaria control in high-burden settings and subnational elimination are a practical necessity. Identifying the spatio-temporal incidence, risk, and trends at different administrative geographies within malaria-endemic countries and monitoring them in near real-time as change occurs is crucial for developing and introducing cost-effective, subnational control and elimination intervention strategies.

Methods

This study developed intelligent data analytics incorporating Bayesian trend and spatio-temporal Integrated Laplace Approximation models to analyse high-burden over 32 million reported malaria cases from 1743 health facilities in Zambia between 2009 and 2015.

Results

The results show that at least 5.4 million people live in catchment areas with increasing trends of malaria, covering over 47% of all health facilities, while 5.7 million people live in areas with a declining trend (95% CI), covering 27% of health facilities. A two-scale spatio-temporal trend comparison identified significant differences between health facilities and higher-level districts, and the pattern observed in the southeastern region of Zambia provides the first evidence of the impact of recently implemented localised interventions.

Conclusions

The results support our recommendation for an adaptive scaling approach when implementing national malaria monitoring, control and elimination strategies and a particular need for stratified subnational approaches targeting high-burden regions with increasing disease trends. Strong clusters along borders with highly endemic countries in the north and south of Zambia underscore the need for coordinated cross-border malaria initiatives and strategies.

Malaria is an infectious disease that is widespread in many African countries. Malaria transmission within a country can vary between regions, so tailored interventions for malaria control and elimination targeted to different regions are necessary. To achieve this, it is important to measure and monitor the frequency of malaria infections, its risk, and trends at different geographic administrative scales. This study analysed over 32 million reported malaria cases from 1743 health facilities in Zambia between 2009 and 2015. The results showed an increasing national trend in malaria risk and malaria infection frequency and identified differences between health facility and district trends. These findings support a flexible approach when implementing and expanding national malaria monitoring, control and elimination strategies, especially in areas bordering countries where malaria is widespread, cross-border movement is common, and cross-border initiatives could be beneficial.

Lubinda et al. analyse over 32 million health-facility reported malaria cases in Zambia (2009–15) to examine spatially-structured temporal trends. They observe overall increasing trends in risk and rates and highlight the potential benefits of using an adaptive scaling approach in national malaria strategies, and a need for cross-border initiatives.

Hotspots and super-spreaders: Modelling fine-scale malaria parasite transmission using mosquito flight behaviour

Malaria hotspots have been the focus of public health managers for several years due to the potential elimination gains that can be obtained from targeting them. The identification of hotspots must be accompanied by the description of the overall network of stable and unstable hotspots of malaria, especially in medium and low transmission settings where malaria elimination is targeted. Targeting hotspots with malaria control interventions has, so far, not produced expected benefits. In this work we have employed a mechanistic-stochastic algorithm to identify clusters of super-spreader houses and their related stable hotspots by accounting for mosquito flight capabilities and the spatial configuration of malaria infections at the house level. Our results show that the number of super-spreading houses and hotspots is dependent on the spatial configuration of the villages. In addition, super-spreaders are also associated to house characteristics such as livestock and family composition. We found that most of the transmission is associated with winds between 6pm and 10pm although later hours are also important. Mixed mosquito flight (downwind and upwind both with random components) were the most likely movements causing the spread of malaria in two out of the three study areas. Finally, our algorithm (named MALSWOTS) provided an estimate of the speed of malaria infection progression from house to house which was around 200-400 meters per day, a figure coherent with mark-release-recapture studies of Anopheles dispersion. Cross validation using an out-of-sample procedure showed accurate identification of hotspots. Our findings provide a significant contribution towards the identification and development of optimal tools for efficient and effective spatio-temporal targeted malaria interventions over potential hotspot areas.

The fight against malaria: Diminishing gains and growing challenges

Since the year 2000, historic reductions in malaria incidence and mortality have been driven by the widespread distribution of bed nets, drugs, and insecticides for the prevention and treatment of malaria. Scale-up of these tools has been enabled by an increase in malaria financing compounded by price reductions, yet these trends are unlikely to continue at the same rate. Rapid population growth in high-endemic areas requires procurement of more of these tools just to maintain current coverage, even as prices are likely to increase as resistance to drugs and insecticides forces shifts to newer products. Further progress toward the long-term goal of malaria eradication requires a combination of greater funding, more cost-effective resource allocation, and fundamental changes to the global malaria control strategy.

Malaria diagnostic methods with the elimination goal in view

Malaria control measures have been in use for years but have not completely curbed the spread of infection. Ultimately, global elimination is the goal. A major playmaker in the various approaches to reaching the goal is the issue of proper diagnosis. Various diagnostic techniques were adopted in different regions and geographical locations over the decades, and these have invariably produced diverse outcomes. In this review, we looked at the various approaches used in malaria diagnostics with a focus on methods favorably used during pre-elimination and elimination phases as well as in endemic regions. Microscopy, rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are common methods applied depending on prevailing factors, each with its strengths and limitations. As the drive toward the elimination goal intensifies, the search for ideal, simple, fast, and reliable point-of-care diagnostic tools is needed more than ever before to be used in conjunction with a functional surveillance system supported by the ideal vaccine.

Plasmodium falciparum genomic surveillance reveals spatial and temporal trends, association of genetic and physical distance, and household clustering

Molecular epidemiology using genomic data can help identify relationships between malaria parasite population structure, malaria transmission intensity, and ultimately help generate actionable data to assess the effectiveness of malaria control strategies. Genomic data, coupled with geographic information systems data, can further identify clusters or hotspots of malaria transmission, parasite genetic and spatial connectivity, and parasite movement by human or mosquito mobility over time and space. In this study, we performed longitudinal genomic surveillance in a cohort of 70 participants over four years from different neighborhoods and households in Thiès, Senegal—a region of exceptionally low malaria transmission (entomological inoculation rate less than 1). Genetic identity (identity by state, IBS) was established using a 24-single nucleotide polymorphism molecular barcode, identity by descent was calculated from whole genome sequence data, and a hierarchical Bayesian regression model was used to establish genetic and spatial relationships. Our results show clustering of genetically similar parasites within households and a decline in genetic similarity of parasites with increasing distance. One household showed extremely high diversity and warrants further investigation as to the source of these diverse genetic types. This study illustrates the utility of genomic data with traditional epidemiological approaches for surveillance and detection of trends and patterns in malaria transmission not only by neighborhood but also by household. This approach can be implemented regionally and countrywide to strengthen and support malaria control and elimination efforts.

A practical approach for geographic prioritization and targeting of insecticide-treated net distribution campaigns during public health emergencies and in resource-limited settings

BACKGROUND

The use of data in targeting malaria control efforts is essential for optimal use of resources. This work provides a practical mechanism for prioritizing geographic areas for insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution campaigns in settings with limited resources.

METHODS

A GIS-based weighted approach was adopted to categorize and rank administrative units based on data that can be applied in various country contexts where Plasmodium falciparum transmission is reported. Malaria intervention and risk factors were used to rank local government areas (LGAs) in Nigeria for prioritization during mass ITN distribution campaigns. Each factor was assigned a unique weight that was obtained through application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The weight was then multiplied by a value based on natural groupings inherent in the data, or the presence or absence of a given intervention. Risk scores for each factor were then summated to generate a composite unique risk score for each LGA. This risk score was translated into a prioritization map which ranks each LGA from low to high priority in terms of timing of ITN distributions.

RESULTS

A case study using data from Nigeria showed that a major component that influenced the prioritization scheme was ITN access. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that changes to the methodology used to quantify ITN access did not modify outputs substantially. Some 120 LGAs were categorized as 'extremely high' or 'high' priority when a spatially interpolated ITN access layer was used. When prioritization scores were calculated using DHS-reported state level ITN access, 108 (90.0%) of the 120 LGAs were also categorized as being extremely high or high priority. The geospatial heterogeneity found among input risk factors suggests that a range of variables and covariates should be considered when using data to inform ITN distributions.

CONCLUSION

The authors provide a tool for prioritizing regions in terms of timing of ITN distributions. It serves as a base upon which a wider range of vector control interventions could be targeted. Its value added can be found in its potential for application in multiple country contexts, expediated timeframe for producing outputs, and its use of systematically collected malaria indicators in informing prioritization.

Identifying Plasmodium falciparum transmission patterns through parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate

Background

Monitoring malaria transmission is a critical component of efforts to achieve targets for elimination and eradication. Two commonly monitored metrics of transmission intensity are parasite prevalence (PR) and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Comparing the spatial and temporal variations in the PR and EIR of a given geographical region and modelling the relationship between the two metrics may provide a fuller picture of the malaria epidemiology of the region to inform control activities.

Methods

Using geostatistical methods, we compare the spatial and temporal patterns of Plasmodium falciparum EIR and PR using data collected over 38 months in a rural area of Malawi. We then quantify the relationship between EIR and PR by using empirical and mechanistic statistical models.

Results

Hotspots identified through the EIR and PR partly overlapped during high transmission seasons but not during low transmission seasons. The estimated relationship showed a 1-month delayed effect of EIR on PR such that at lower levels of EIR, increases in EIR are associated with rapid rise in PR, whereas at higher levels of EIR, changes in EIR do not translate into notable changes in PR.

Conclusions

Our study emphasises the need for integrated malaria control strategies that combine vector and human host managements monitored by both entomological and parasitaemia indices.

Funding

This work was supported by Stichting Dioraphte grant number 13050800.

Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of malaria cases using remote sensing meteorological data in Diébougou health district, Burkina Faso, 2016-2017

Malaria control and prevention programs are more efficient and cost-effective when they target hotspots or select the best periods of year to implement interventions. This study aimed to identify the spatial distribution of malaria hotspots at the village level in Diébougou health district, Burkina Faso, and to model the temporal dynamics of malaria cases as a function of meteorological conditions and of the distance between villages and health centres (HCs). Case data for 27 villages were collected in 13 HCs. Meteorological data were obtained through remote sensing. Two synthetic meteorological indicators (SMIs) were created to summarize meteorological variables. Spatial hotspots were detected using the Kulldorf scanning method. A General Additive Model was used to determine the time lag between cases and SMIs and to evaluate the effect of SMIs and distance to HC on the temporal evolution of malaria cases. The multivariate model was fitted with data from the epidemic year to predict the number of cases in the following outbreak. Overall, the incidence rate in the area was 429.13 cases per 1000 person-year with important spatial and temporal heterogeneities. Four spatial hotspots, involving 7 of the 27 villages, were detected, for an incidence rate of 854.02 cases per 1000 person-year. The hotspot with the highest risk (relative risk = 4.06) consisted of a single village, with an incidence rate of 1750.75 cases per 1000 person-years. The multivariate analysis found greater variability in incidence between HCs than between villages linked to the same HC. The time lag that generated the better predictions of cases was 9 weeks for SMI1 (positively correlated with precipitation variables) and 16 weeks for SMI2 (positively correlated with temperature variables. The prediction followed the overall pattern of the time series of reported cases and predicted the onset of the following outbreak with a precision of less than 3 weeks. This analysis of malaria cases in Diébougou health district, Burkina Faso, provides a powerful prospective method for identifying and predicting high-risk areas and high-transmission periods that could be targeted in future malaria control and prevention campaigns.

Investigating differences in village-level heterogeneity of malaria infection and household risk factors in Papua New Guinea

Malaria risk is highly heterogeneous. Understanding village and household-level spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk can support a transition to spatially targeted interventions for malaria elimination. This analysis uses data from cross-sectional prevalence surveys conducted in 2014 and 2016 in two villages (Megiar and Mirap) in Papua New Guinea. Generalised additive modelling was used to characterise spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk and investigate the contribution of individual, household and environmental-level risk factors. Following a period of declining malaria prevalence, the prevalence of P. falciparum increased from 11.4 to 19.1% in Megiar and 12.3 to 28.3% in Mirap between 2014 and 2016, with focal hotspots observed in these villages in 2014 and expanding in 2016. Prevalence of P. vivax was similar in both years (20.6% and 18.3% in Megiar, 22.1% and 23.4% in Mirap) and spatial risk heterogeneity was less apparent compared to P. falciparum. Within-village hotspots varied by Plasmodium species across time and between villages. In Megiar, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of infection could be partially explained by household factors that increase risk of vector exposure, such as collecting outdoor surface water as a main source of water. In Mirap, increased AOR overlapped with proximity to densely vegetated areas of the village. The identification of household and environmental factors associated with increased spatial risk may serve as useful indicators of transmission hotspots and inform the development of tailored approaches for malaria control.

Effectiveness of spatially targeted interventions for control of HIV, tuberculosis, leprosy and malaria: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

As infectious diseases approach global elimination targets, spatial targeting is increasingly important to identify community hotspots of transmission and effectively target interventions. We aimed to synthesise relevant evidence to define best practice approaches and identify policy and research gaps.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically appraise evidence for the effectiveness of spatially targeted community public health interventions for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), leprosy and malaria.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews between 1 January 1993 and 22 March 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

The studies had to include HIV or TB or leprosy or malaria and spatial hotspot definition, and community interventions.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

A data extraction tool was used. For each study, we summarised approaches to identifying hotpots, intervention design and effectiveness of the intervention.

RESULTS

Ten studies, including one cluster randomised trial and nine with alternative designs (before-after, comparator area), satisfied our inclusion criteria. Spatially targeted interventions for HIV (one USA study), TB (three USA) and leprosy (two Brazil, one Federated States of Micronesia) each used household location and disease density to define hotspots followed by community-based screening. Malaria studies (one each from India, Indonesia and Kenya) used household location and disease density for hotspot identification followed by complex interventions typically combining community screening, larviciding of stagnant water bodies, indoor residual spraying and mass drug administration. Evidence of effect was mixed.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies investigating spatially targeted interventions were few in number, and mostly underpowered or otherwise limited methodologically, affecting interpretation of intervention impact. Applying advanced epidemiological methodologies supporting more robust hotspot identification and larger or more intensive interventions would strengthen the evidence-base for this increasingly important approach.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019130133.

The application of drones for mosquito larval habitat identification in rural environments: a practical approach for malaria control?

BACKGROUND

Spatio-temporal trends in mosquito-borne diseases are driven by the locations and seasonality of larval habitat. One method of disease control is to decrease the mosquito population by modifying larval habitat, known as larval source management (LSM). In malaria control, LSM is currently considered impractical in rural areas due to perceived difficulties in identifying target areas. High resolution drone mapping is being considered as a practical solution to address this barrier. In this paper, the authors' experiences of drone-led larval habitat identification in Malawi were used to assess the feasibility of this approach.

METHODS

Drone mapping and larval surveys were conducted in Kasungu district, Malawi between 2018 and 2020. Water bodies and aquatic vegetation were identified in the imagery using manual methods and geographical object-based image analysis (GeoOBIA) and the performances of the classifications were compared. Further, observations were documented on the practical aspects of capturing drone imagery for informing malaria control including cost, time, computing, and skills requirements. Larval sampling sites were characterized by biotic factors visible in drone imagery and generalized linear mixed models were used to determine their association with larval presence.

RESULTS

Imagery covering an area of 8.9 km² across eight sites was captured. Larval habitat characteristics were successfully identified using GeoOBIA on images captured by a standard camera (median accuracy = 98%) with no notable improvement observed after incorporating data from a near-infrared sensor. This approach however required greater processing time and technical skills compared to manual identification. Larval samples captured from 326 sites confirmed that drone-captured characteristics, including aquatic vegetation presence and type, were significantly associated with larval presence.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the potential for drone-acquired imagery to support mosquito larval habitat identification in rural, malaria-endemic areas, although technical challenges were identified which may hinder the scale up of this approach. Potential solutions have however been identified, including strengthening linkages with the flourishing drone industry in countries such as Malawi. Further consultations are therefore needed between experts in the fields of drones, image analysis and vector control are needed to develop more detailed guidance on how this technology can be most effectively exploited in malaria control.

Fine-scale variation in malaria prevalence across ecological regions in Madagascar: a cross-sectional study

Background

Large-scale variation in ecological parameters across Madagascar is hypothesized to drive varying spatial patterns of malaria infection. However, to date, few studies of parasite prevalence with resolution at finer, sub-regional spatial scales are available. As a result, there is a poor understanding of how Madagascar’s diverse local ecologies link with variation in the distribution of infections at the community and household level. Efforts to preserve Madagascar’s ecological diversity often focus on improving livelihoods in rural communities near remaining forested areas but are limited by a lack of data on their infectious disease burden.

Methods

To investigate spatial variation in malaria prevalence at the sub-regional scale in Madagascar, we sampled 1476 households (7117 total individuals, all ages) from 31 rural communities divided among five ecologically distinct regions. The sampled regions range from tropical rainforest to semi-arid, spiny forest and include communities near protected areas including the Masoala, Makira, and Mikea forests. Malaria prevalence was estimated by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) cross-sectional surveys performed during malaria transmission seasons over 2013–2017.

Results

Indicative of localized hotspots, malaria prevalence varied more than 10-fold between nearby (< 50 km) communities in some cases. Prevalence was highest on average in the west coast region (Morombe district, average community prevalence 29.4%), situated near protected dry deciduous forest habitat. At the household level, communities in southeast Madagascar (Mananjary district) were observed with over 50% of households containing multiple infected individuals at the time of sampling. From simulations accounting for variation in household size and prevalence at the community level, we observed a significant excess of households with multiple infections in rural communities in southwest and southeast Madagascar, suggesting variation in risk within communities.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the malaria infection burden experienced by rural communities in Madagascar varies greatly at smaller spatial scales (i.e., at the community and household level) and that the southeast and west coast ecological regions warrant further attention from disease control efforts. Conservation and development efforts in these regions may benefit from consideration of the high, and variable, malaria prevalences among communities in these areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11090-3.

Vector role and human biting activity of Anophelinae mosquitoes in different landscapes in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Environmental disturbance, deforestation and socioeconomic factors all affect malaria incidence in tropical and subtropical endemic areas. Deforestation is the major driver of habitat loss and fragmentation, which frequently leads to shifts in the composition, abundance and spatial distribution of vector species. The goals of the present study were to: (i) identify anophelines found naturally infected with Plasmodium; (ii) measure the effects of landscape on the number of Nyssorhynchus darlingi, presence of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae, human biting rate (HBR) and malaria cases; and (iii) determine the frequency and peak biting time of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes and Ny. darlingi.

METHODS

Anopheline mosquitoes were collected in peridomestic and forest edge habitats in seven municipalities in four Amazon Brazilian states. Females were identified to species and tested for Plasmodium by real-time PCR. Negative binomial regression was used to measure any association between deforestation and number of Ny. darlingi, number of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae, HBR and malaria. Peak biting time of Ny. darlingi and Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae were determined in the 12-h collections. Binomial logistic regression measured the association between presence of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae and landscape metrics and malaria cases.

RESULTS

Ninety-one females of Ny. darlingi, Ny. rangeli, Ny. benarrochi B and Ny. konderi B were found to be infected with Plasmodium. Analysis showed that the number of malaria cases and the number of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae were more prevalent in sites with higher edge density and intermediate forest cover (30-70%). The distance of the drainage network to a dwelling was inversely correlated to malaria risk. The peak biting time of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae was 00:00-03:00 h. The presence of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes was higher in landscapes with > 13 malaria cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Nyssorhynchus darlingi, Ny. rangeli, Ny. benarrochi B and Ny. konderi B can be involved in malaria transmission in rural settlements. The highest fraction of Plasmodium-infected Anophelinae was caught from midnight to 03:00 h. In some Amazonian localities, the highest exposure to infectious bites occurs when residents are sleeping, but transmission can occur throughout the night. Forest fragmentation favors increases in both malaria and the occurrence of Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes in peridomestic habitat. The use of insecticide-impregnated mosquito nets can decrease human exposure to infectious Anophelinae and malaria transmission.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria in Sarawak from 2008 to 2017

Zoonotic knowlesi malaria has replaced human malaria as the most prevalent malaria disease in Malaysia. The persistence of knowlesi malaria in high-risk transmission areas or hotspots can be discouraging to existing malaria elimination efforts. In this study, retrospective data of laboratory-confirmed knowlesi malaria cases were obtained from the Sarawak Health Department to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and clustering of knowlesi malaria in the state of Sarawak from 2008 to 2017. Purely spatial, purely temporal, and spatiotemporal analyses were performed using SaTScan software to define clustering of knowlesi malaria incidence. Purely spatial and spatiotemporal analyses indicated most likely clusters of knowlesi malaria in the northern region of Sarawak, along the Sarawak-Kalimantan border, and the inner central region of Sarawak between 2008 and 2017. Temporal cluster was detected between September 2016 and December 2017. This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant Plasmodium knowlesi malaria clusters in Sarawak, Malaysia. The analysis approach applied in this study showed potential in establishing surveillance and risk management system for knowlesi malaria control as Malaysia approaches human malaria elimination.

Anopheles arabiensis hotspots along intermittent rivers drive malaria dynamics in semi-arid areas of Central Ethiopia

Background

Understanding malaria vector’s population dynamics and their spatial distribution is important to define when and where the largest infection risks occur and implement appropriate control strategies. In this study, the seasonal spatio-temporal dynamics of the malaria vector population and transmission intensity along intermittent rivers in a semi-arid area of central Ethiopia were investigated.

Methods

Mosquitoes were collected monthly from five clusters, 2 close to a river and 3 away from a river, using pyrethrum spray catches from November 2014 to July 2016. Mosquito abundance was analysed by the mixed Poisson regression model. The human blood index and sporozoite rate was compared between seasons by a logistic regression model.

Results

A total of 2784 adult female Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) were collected during the data collection period. All tested mosquitoes (n = 696) were identified as Anopheles arabiensis by polymerase chain reaction. The average daily household count was significantly higher (P = 0.037) in the clusters close to the river at 5.35 (95% CI 2.41–11.85) compared to the clusters away from the river at 0.033 (95% CI 0.02–0.05). Comparing the effect of vicinity of the river by season, a significant effect of closeness to the river was found during the dry season (P = 0.027) and transition from dry to wet season (P = 0.032). Overall, An. arabiensis had higher bovine blood index (62.8%) as compared to human blood index (23.8%), ovine blood index (9.2%) and canine blood index (0.1%). The overall sporozoite rate was 3.9% and 0% for clusters close to and away from the river, respectively. The overall Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax entomologic inoculation rates for An. arabiensis in clusters close to the river were 0.8 and 2.2 infective bites per person/year, respectively.

Conclusion

Mosquito abundance and malaria transmission intensity in clusters close to the river were higher which could be attributed to the riverine breeding sites. Thus, vector control interventions including targeted larval source management should be implemented to reduce the risk of malaria infection in the area.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03697-z.

Complexities in Defining the Unit of Intervention for Reactive Community-Based Malaria Treatment in the Gambia

With significant declines in malaria, infections are increasingly clustered in households, or groups of households where malaria transmission is higher than in surrounding household/villages. To decrease transmission in such cases, reactive interventions target household members of clinical malaria cases, with the intervention unit (e.g., the "household/s") derived from an epidemiological and operational perspective. A lack of unanimity regarding the spatial range of the intervention unit calls for greater importance to be placed on social context in conceptualizing the appropriate unit. A novel malaria elimination strategy based on reactive treatment was recently evaluated by a cluster randomized trial in a low transmission setting in The Gambia. Transdisciplinary research was used to assess and improve the effectiveness of the intervention which consisted, among others, of reflecting on whether the household was the most adequate unit of analysis. The intervention was piloted on the smallest treatment unit possible and was further adapted following a better understanding of the social and epidemiological context. Intervention units defined according to (i) shared sleeping spaces and (ii) household membership, showed substantial limitations as it was not possible to define them clearly and they were extremely variable within the study setting. Incorporating local definitions and community preference in the trial design led to the appropriate intervention unit-the compound-defined as an enclosed space containing one or several households belonging to the same extended patrilineal family. Our study demonstrates the appropriateness of using transdisciplinary research for investigating alternative intervention units that are better tailored to reactive treatment approaches.

Spatial and temporal village-level prevalence of Plasmodium infection and associated risk factors in two districts of Meghalaya, India

BACKGROUND

Despite declining incidence over the past decade, malaria remains an important health burden in India. This study aimed to assess the village-level temporal patterns of Plasmodium infection in two districts of the north-eastern state of Meghalaya and evaluate risk factors that might explain these patterns.

METHODS

Primary Health Centre passive malaria case data from 2014 to 2018 were analysed to characterize village-specific annual incidence and temporal trends. Active malaria case detection was undertaken in 2018 and 2019 to detect Plasmodium infections using PCR. A questionnaire collected socio-demographic, environmental, and behavioural data, and households were spatially mapped via GPS. Adult mosquitoes were sampled at a subset of subjects' houses, and Anopheles were identified by PCR and sequencing. Risk factors for Plasmodium infection were evaluated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and spatial cluster analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS

The annual malaria incidence from PHC-based passive surveillance datasets in 2014-2018 was heterogenous but declining across villages in both districts. Active surveillance in 2018 enrolled 1468 individuals from 468 households (West Jaintia Hills) and 1274 individuals from 359 households (West Khasi Hills). Plasmodium falciparum prevalence per 100 people varied from 0 to 4.1% in the nine villages of West Jaintia Hills, and from 0 to 10.6% in the 12 villages of West Khasi Hills. Significant clustering of P. falciparum infections [observed = 11, expected = 2.15, Relative Risk (RR) = 12.65; p < 0.001] was observed in West Khasi Hills. A total of 13 Anopheles species were found at 53 houses in five villages, with Anopheles jeyporiensis being the most abundant. Risk of infection increased with presence of mosquitoes and electricity in the households [Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.19 and 1.11], respectively. Households with reported animals had reduced infection risk (OR = 0.91).

CONCLUSION

Malaria incidence during 2014-2018 declined in all study villages covered by the passive surveillance data, a period that includes the first widespread insecticide-treated net campaign. The survey data from 2018 revealed a significant association between Plasmodium infection and certain household characteristics. Since species of Plasmodium-competent mosquito vectors continue to be abundant, malaria resurgence remains a threat, and control efforts should continue.

Within-household clustering of genetically related Plasmodium falciparum infections in a moderate transmission area of Uganda

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of genetic relatedness of malaria parasites is a useful tool for understanding transmission patterns, but patterns are not easily detectable in areas with moderate to high malaria transmission. To evaluate the feasibility of detecting genetic relatedness in a moderate malaria transmission setting, relatedness of Plasmodium falciparum infections was measured in cohort participants from randomly selected households in the Kihihi sub-county of Uganda (annual entomological inoculation rate of 27 infectious bites per person).

METHODS

All infections detected via microscopy or Plasmodium-specific loop mediated isothermal amplification from passive and active case detection during August 2011-March 2012 were genotyped at 26 microsatellite loci, providing data for 349 samples from 230 participants living in 80 households. Pairwise genetic relatedness was calculated using identity by state (IBS).

RESULTS

As expected, genetic diversity was high (mean heterozygosity [He] = 0.73), and the majority (76.5 %) of samples were polyclonal. Despite the high genetic diversity, fine-scale population structure was detectable, with significant spatiotemporal clustering of highly related infections. Although the difference in malaria incidence between households at higher (mean 1127 metres) versus lower elevation (mean 1015 metres) was modest (1.4 malaria cases per person-year vs. 1.9 per person-year, respectively), there was a significant difference in multiplicity of infection (2.2 vs. 2.6, p = 0.008) and, more strikingly, a higher proportion of highly related infections within households (6.3 % vs. 0.9 %, p = 0.0005) at higher elevation compared to lower elevation.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic data from a relatively small number of diverse, multiallelic loci reflected fine scale patterns of malaria transmission. Given the increasing interest in applying genetic data to augment malaria surveillance, this study provides evidence that genetic data can be used to inform transmission patterns at local spatial scales even in moderate transmission areas.

Malaria in Southern Venezuela: The hottest hotspot in Latin America

Malaria elimination in Latin America is becoming an elusive goal. Malaria cases reached a historical ~1 million in 2017 and 2018, with Venezuela contributing 53% and 51% of those cases, respectively. Historically, malaria incidence in southern Venezuela has accounted for most of the country's total number of cases. The efficient deployment of disease prevention measures and prediction of disease spread to new regions requires an in-depth understanding of spatial heterogeneity on malaria transmission dynamics. Herein, we characterized the spatial epidemiology of malaria in southern Venezuela from 2007 through 2017 and described the extent to which malaria distribution has changed country-wide over the recent years. We found that disease transmission was focal and more prevalent in the southeast region of southern Venezuela where two persistent hotspots of Plasmodium vivax (76%) and P. falciparum (18%) accounted for ~60% of the total number of cases. Such hotspots are linked to deforestation as a consequence of illegal gold mining activities. Incidence has increased nearly tenfold over the last decade, showing an explosive epidemic growth due to a significant lack of disease control programs. Our findings highlight the importance of spatially oriented interventions to contain the ongoing malaria epidemic in Venezuela. This work also provides baseline epidemiological data to assess cross-border malaria dynamics and advocates for innovative control efforts in the Latin American region.

Identification of main malaria vectors and their insecticide resistance profile in internally displaced and indigenous communities in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a major public health concern in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its control is affected by recurrent conflicts. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) initiated several studies to better understand the unprecedented incidence of malaria to effectively target and implement interventions in emergency settings. The current study evaluated the main vector species involved in malaria transmission and their resistance to insecticides, with the aim to propose the most effective tools and strategies for control of local malaria vectors.

METHODS

This study was performed in 52 households in Shamwana (Katanga, 2014), 168 households in Baraka (South Kivu, 2015) and 269 households in Kashuga (North Kivu, 2017). Anopheles vectors were collected and subjected to standardized Word Health Organization (WHO) and Center for Disease Control (CDC) insecticide susceptibility bioassays. Mosquito species determination was done using PCR and Plasmodium falciparum infection in mosquitoes was assessed by ELISA targeting circumsporozoite protein.

RESULTS

Of 3517 Anopheles spp. mosquitoes collected, Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) (29.6%) and Anopheles funestus (69.1%) were the main malaria vectors. Plasmodium falciparum infection rates for An. gambiae s.l. were 1.0, 2.1 and 13.9% for Shamwana, Baraka and Kashuga, respectively. Anopheles funestus showed positivity rates of 1.6% in Shamwana and 4.4% in Baraka. No An. funestus were collected in Kashuga. Insecticide susceptibility tests showed resistance development towards pyrethroids in all locations. Exposure to bendiocarb, malathion and pirimiphos-methyl still resulted in high mosquito mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This is one of only few studies from these conflict areas in DRC to report insecticide resistance in local malaria vectors. The data suggest that current malaria prevention methods in these populations are only partially effective, and require additional tools and strategies. Importantly, the results triggered MSF to consider the selection of a new insecticide for indoor residual spraying (IRS) and a new long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN). The reinforcement of correct usage of LLINs and the introduction of targeted larviciding were also included as additional vector control tools as a result of the studies.

Forest malaria in Cambodia: the occupational and spatial clustering of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection risk in a cross-sectional survey in Mondulkiri province, Cambodia

Background

After a marked reduction in malaria burden in Cambodia over the last decades, case numbers increased again in 2017–2018. In light of the national goal of malaria elimination by 2025, remaining pockets of high risk need to be well defined and strategies well-tailored to identify and target the persisting burden cost-effectively. This study presents species-specific prevalence estimates and risk stratification for a remote area in Cambodia.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 17 villages in the high-incidence province Mondulkiri in the dry season (December 2017 to April 2018). 4200 randomly selected participants (2–80 years old) were tested for Plasmodium infection by PCR. Risk of infection was associated with questionnaire-derived covariates and spatially stratified based on household GPS coordinates.

Results

The prevalence of PCR-detectable Plasmodium infection was 8.3% (349/4200) and was more than twice as high for Plasmodium vivax (6.4%, 268) than for Plasmodium falciparum (3.0%, 125, p < 0.001). 97.8% (262/268) of P. vivax and 92.8% (116/125, p < 0.05) of P. falciparum infections were neither accompanied by symptoms at the time of the interview nor detected by microscopy or RDT. Recent travels to forest sites (aOR 2.17, p < 0.01) and forest work (aOR 2.88, p < 0.001) were particularly strong risk factors and risk profiles for both species were similar. Large village-level differences in prevalence of Plasmodium infection were observed, ranging from 0.6% outside the forest to 40.4% inside. Residing in villages at the forest fringe or inside the forest compared to outside was associated with risk of infection (aOR 2.14 and 12.47, p < 0.001). Villages inside the forest formed spatial hotspots of infection despite adjustment for the other risk factors.

Conclusions

Persisting pockets of high malaria risk were detected in forested areas and in sub-populations engaging in forest-related activities. High levels of asymptomatic infections suggest the need of better case detection plans and the predominance of P. vivax the implementation of radical cure. In villages inside the forest, within-village exposure was indicated in addition to risk due to forest activities. Village-level stratification of targeted interventions based on forest proximity could render the elimination efforts more cost-effective and successful.

How useful are malaria risk maps at the country level? Perceptions of decision-makers in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

Declining malaria prevalence and pressure on external funding have increased the need for efficiency in malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Modelled Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) maps are increasingly becoming available and provide information on the epidemiological situation of countries. However, how these maps are understood or used for national malaria planning is rarely explored. In this study, the practices and perceptions of national decision-makers on the utility of malaria risk maps, showing prevalence of parasitaemia or incidence of illness, was investigated.

Methods

A document review of recent National Malaria Strategic Plans was combined with 64 in-depth interviews with stakeholders in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The document review focused on the type of epidemiological maps included and their use in prioritising and targeting interventions. Interviews (14 Kenya, 17 Malawi, 27 DRC, 6 global level) explored drivers of stakeholder perceptions of the utility, value and limitations of malaria risk maps.

Results

Three different types of maps were used to show malaria epidemiological strata: malaria prevalence using a PfPR modelled map (Kenya); malaria incidence using routine health system data (Malawi); and malaria prevalence using data from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DRC). In Kenya the map was used to target preventative interventions, including long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), whilst in Malawi and DRC the maps were used to target in-door residual spraying (IRS) and LLINs distributions in schools. Maps were also used for operational planning, supply quantification, financial justification and advocacy. Findings from the interviews suggested that decision-makers lacked trust in the modelled PfPR maps when based on only a few empirical data points (Malawi and DRC).

Conclusions

Maps were generally used to identify areas with high prevalence in order to implement specific interventions. Despite the availability of national level modelled PfPR maps in all three countries, they were only used in one country. Perceived utility of malaria risk maps was associated with the epidemiological structure of the country and use was driven by perceived need, understanding (quality and relevance), ownership and trust in the data used to develop the maps.

Quantifying Plasmodium falciparum infections clustering within households to inform household-based intervention strategies for malaria control programs: An observational study and meta-analysis from 41 malaria-endemic countries

BACKGROUND

Reactive malaria strategies are predicated on the assumption that individuals infected with malaria are clustered within households or neighbourhoods. Despite the widespread programmatic implementation of reactive strategies, little empirical evidence exists as to whether such strategies are appropriate and, if so, how they should be most effectively implemented.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We collated 2 different datasets to assess clustering of malaria infections within households: (i) demographic health survey (DHS) data, integrating household information and patent malaria infection, recent fever, and recent treatment status in children; and (ii) data from cross-sectional and reactive detection studies containing information on the household and malaria infection status (patent and subpatent) of all-aged individuals. Both datasets were used to assess the odds of infections clustering within index households, where index households were defined based on whether they contained infections detectable through one of 3 programmatic strategies: (a) Reactive Case Detection (RACD) classifed by confirmed clinical cases, (b) Mass Screen and Treat (MSAT) classifed by febrile, symptomatic infections, and (c) Mass Test and Treat (MTAT) classifed by infections detectable using routine diagnostics. Data included 59,050 infections in 208,140 children under 7 years old (median age = 2 years, minimum = 2, maximum = 7) by microscopy/rapid diagnostic test (RDT) from 57 DHSs conducted between November 2006 and December 2018 from 23 African countries. Data representing 11,349 infections across all ages (median age = 22 years, minimum = 0.5, maximum = 100) detected by molecular tools in 132,590 individuals in 43 studies published between April 2006 and May 2019 in 20 African, American, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries were obtained from the published literature. Extensive clustering was observed-overall, there was a 20.40 greater (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.35-20.45; P < 0.001) odds of patent infections (according to the DHS data) and 5.13 greater odds (95% CI 3.85-6.84; P < 0.001) of molecularly detected infections (from the published literature) detected within households in which a programmatically detectable infection resides. The strongest degree of clustering identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/ loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was observed using the MTAT strategy (odds ratio [OR] = 6.79, 95% CI 4.42-10.43) but was not significantly different when compared to MSAT (OR = 5.2, 95% CI 3.22-8.37; P-difference = 0.883) and RACD (OR = 4.08, 95% CI 2.55-6.53; P-difference = 0.29). Across both datasets, clustering became more prominent when transmission was low. However, limitations to our analysis include not accounting for any malaria control interventions in place, malaria seasonality, or the likely heterogeneity of transmission within study sites. Clustering may thus have been underestimated.

CONCLUSIONS

In areas where malaria transmission is peri-domestic, there are programmatic options for identifying households where residual infections are likely to be found. Combining these detection strategies with presumptively treating residents of index households over a sustained time period could contribute to malaria elimination efforts.

Demonstration of indigenous malaria elimination through Track-Test-Treat-Track (T4) strategy in a Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project in Mandla, Madhya Pradesh

BACKGROUND

Many malaria endemic countries are heading towards malaria elimination through the use of case management and vector control strategies, which employ surveillance, improving access to early diagnosis, prompt treatment., and integrated vector control measures. There is a consensus that elimination of malaria is feasible when rapid detection and prompt treatment is combined with mosquito-human contact interruption in an efficient and sustainable manner at community levels. This paper describes results of an integrated case management and vector control strategy for reducing malaria cases in 1233 villages over 3 years in district Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India.

METHODS

The project enrolled the entire population (1,143,126) of Mandla district for fever surveillance followed by testing of febrile cases and treatment of positive subjects using T4 strategy, which is Track (by fever), Test (by RDTs), Treat (by ACT) and Track (for completion of treatment). In addition to the active and passive surveillance for detection and treatment of febrile cases, the project conducted mass screening and treatment to clear the asymptomatic reservoirs of infection. Febrile cases were also tested in the out-patient department of the District Hospital from June 2018 to September, 2018 and in a community-based medical camp from November 7 to 14, 2019. The project also used vector control measures for interrupting human-mosquito contact, and information, education and communication (IEC) campaigns to increase demand for malaria services at community level.

RESULTS

This project has revealed about 91% reduction of indigenous cases of malaria during the period from June 2017 to May 2020, through case management and vector control strategies. A total 357,143 febrile cases were screened, out of which 0.19% were found positive for the presence of malaria parasites, with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax ratio of 62:38. The prevalence of malaria was higher in individuals > 15 years of age (69% cases). The positivity rate was 0.33% in 2017-18, 0.13% in 2018-19, and 0.06% in 2019-20. In all of the 3 years of the project, the peak transmission correlated with rains. Mass screening revealed 0.18% positivity in Sep-Oct 2018, followed by 0.06% in June 2019, and 0.03% in December 2019, and these were mostly asymptomatic cases in the community. Imported cases into the district were mostly contributed by the distant state of Telangana (51.13%). Fever patients tested for malaria parasites in the District Hospital and medical camp revealed zero cases.

CONCLUSION

Using the current intervention and prevention tools along with optimum utilization of human resources, a 91% reduction in indigenous cases of malaria was seen in the district in 3 years. The reduction was similar in the three high prevalence blocks of the district. These results reveal that malaria elimination is achievable in India within a stipulated time frame. The reduction of malaria at the community level was further validated when zero malaria cases were diagnosed during hospital and community-based studies in Mandla. Prompt detection and treatment of imported/migratory cases may have prevented outbreaks in the district. This project has demonstrated that field programmes backed by adequate technical, management, operational, and financial controls with robust monitoring are needed for achieving malaria elimination.

Neurological disorder and psychosocial aspects of cerebral malaria: what is new on its pathogenesis and complications? A minireview

Recently, malaria is remain considered as the most prevalent infectious disease, affecting the human health globally. High morbidity and mortality worldwide is often allied with cerebral malaria (CM) based disorders of the central nervous system, especially across many tropical and sub-tropical regions. These disorders are characterised by the infection of Plasmodium species, which leads to acute or chronic neurological disorders, even after having active/effective antimalarial drugs. Furthermore, even during the treatment, individual remain sensitive for neurological impairments in the form of decrease blood flow and vascular obstruction in brain including many more other changes. This review briefly explains and update on the epidemiology, burden of disease, pathogenesis and role of CM in neurological disorders with behaviour and function in mouse and human models. Moreover, the social stigma, which plays an important role in neurological disorders and a factor for assessing CM, is also discussed in this review.