Predictors of mortality in COPD

A protein risk score for all-cause and respiratory-specific mortality in non-Hispanic white and African American individuals who smoke

Protein biomarkers are associated with mortality in cardiovascular disease, but their effect on predicting respiratory and all-cause mortality is not clear. We tested whether a protein risk score (protRS) can improve prediction of all-cause mortality over clinical risk factors in smokers. We utilized smoking-enriched (COPDGene, LSC, SPIROMICS) and general population-based (MESA) cohorts with SomaScan proteomic and mortality data. We split COPDGene into training and testing sets (50:50) and developed a protRS based on respiratory mortality effect size and parsimony. We tested multivariable associations of the protRS with all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality, and performed meta-analysis, area-under-the-curve (AUC), and network analyses. We included 2232 participants. In COPDGene, a penalized regression-based protRS was most highly associated with respiratory mortality (OR 9.2) and parsimonious (15 proteins). This protRS was associated with all-cause mortality (random effects HR 1.79 [95% CI 1.31-2.43]). Adding the protRS to clinical covariates improved all-cause mortality prediction in COPDGene (AUC 0.87 vs 0.82) and SPIROMICS (0.74 vs 0.6), but not in LSC and MESA. Protein-protein interaction network analyses implicate cytokine signaling, innate immune responses, and extracellular matrix turnover. A blood-based protein risk score predicts all-cause and respiratory mortality, identifies potential drivers of mortality, and demonstrates heterogeneity in effects amongst cohorts.

The contribution of estimated dead space fraction to mortality prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-a new proposal

Background

Mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasing. However, dead space fractions at rest (VD/VTrest) and peak exercise (VD/VTpeak) and variables affecting survival have not been evaluated. This study aimed to investigate these issues.

Methods

This retrospective observational cohort study was conducted from 2010-2020. Patients with COPD who smoked, met the Global Initiatives for Chronic Lung Diseases (GOLD) criteria, had available demographic, complete lung function test (CLFT), medication, acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), Charlson Comorbidity Index, and survival data were enrolled. VD/VTrest and VD/VTpeak were estimated (estVD/VTrest and estVD/VTpeak). Univariate and multivariable Cox regression with stepwise variable selection were performed to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality.

Results

Overall, 14,910 patients with COPD were obtained from the hospital database, and 456 were analyzed after excluding those without CLFT or meeting the lung function criteria during the follow-up period (median (IQR) 597 (331-934.5) days). Of the 456 subjects, 81% had GOLD stages 2 and 3, highly elevated dead space fractions, mild air-trapping and diffusion impairment. The hospitalized AECOPD rate was 0.60 ± 2.84/person/year. Forty-eight subjects (10.5%) died, including 30 with advanced cancer. The incidence density of death was 6.03 per 100 person-years. The crude risk factors for mortality were elevated estVD/VTrest, estVD/VTpeak, ≥2 hospitalizations for AECOPD, advanced age, body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m2, and cancer (hazard ratios (95% C.I.) from 1.03 [1.00-1.06] to 5.45 [3.04-9.79]). The protective factors were high peak expiratory flow%, adjusted diffusing capacity%, alveolar volume%, and BMI 24-26.9 kg/m2. In stepwise Cox regression analysis, after adjusting for all selected factors except cancer, estVD/VTrest and BMI <18.5 kg/m2 were risk factors, whereas BMI 24-26.9 kg/m2 was protective. Cancer was the main cause of all-cause mortality in this study; however, estVD/VTrest and BMI were independent prognostic factors for COPD after excluding cancer.

Conclusions

The predictive formula for dead space fraction enables the estimation of VD/VTrest, and the mortality probability formula facilitates the estimation of COPD mortality. However, the clinical implications should be approached with caution until these formulas have been validated.

Increased Risk of Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Related Hospitalizations in Tuberculosis Survivors: A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) survivors have an increased risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study assessed the risk of COPD development and COPD-related hospitalization in TB survivors compared to controls.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of TB survivors and 1:1 age- and sex-matched controls using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database collected from 2010 to 2017. We compared the risk of COPD development and COPD-related hospitalization between TB survivors and controls.

RESULTS

Of the subjects, 9.6% developed COPD, and 2.8% experienced COPD-related hospitalization. TB survivors had significantly higher COPD incidence rates (36.7/1,000 vs. 18.8/1,000 person-years, P < 0.001) and COPD-related hospitalization (10.7/1,000 vs. 4.3/1,000 person-years, P < 0.001) than controls. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed higher risks of COPD development (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54-1.73) and COPD-related hospitalization (aHR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.81-2.27) in TB survivors. Among those who developed COPD, the hospitalization rate was higher in individuals with post-TB COPD compared to those with non-TB COPD (10.7/1,000 vs. 4.9/1,000 person-years, P < 0.001), showing an increased risk of COPD-related hospitalization (aHR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.17-2.92).

CONCLUSION

TB survivors had higher risks of incident COPD and COPD-related hospitalization compared to controls. These results suggest that previous TB is an important COPD etiology associated with COPD-related hospitalization.

Association between computed tomography-quantified respiratory muscles and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

This study examined the association between chest muscles and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and the relationship between chest muscle areas and acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD).

METHODS

There were 168 subjects in the non-COPD group and 101 patients in the COPD group. The respiratory and accessory respiratory muscle areas were obtained using 3D Slicer software to analysis the imaging of  computed tomography (CT). Univariate and multivariate Poisson regressions were used to analyze the number of AECOPD cases during the preceding year. The cutoff value was obtained using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

We scanned 6342 subjects records, 269 of which were included in this study. We then measured the following muscle areas (non-COPD group vs. COPD group): pectoralis major (19.06 ± 5.36 cm2 vs. 13.25 ± 3.71 cm2, P < 0.001), pectoralis minor (6.81 ± 2.03 cm2 vs. 5.95 ± 1.81 cm2, P = 0.001), diaphragmatic dome (1.39 ± 0.97 cm2 vs. 0.85 ± 0.72 cm2, P = 0.011), musculus serratus anterior (28.03 ± 14.95 cm2 vs.16.76 ± 12.69 cm2, P < 0.001), intercostal muscle (12.36 ± 6.64 cm2 vs. 7.15 ± 5.6 cm2, P < 0.001), pectoralis subcutaneous fat (25.91 ± 13.23 cm2 vs. 18.79 ± 10.81 cm2, P < 0.001), paravertebral muscle (14.8 ± 4.35 cm2 vs. 13.33 ± 4.27 cm2, P = 0.007), and paravertebral subcutaneous fat (12.57 ± 5.09 cm2 vs. 10.14 ± 6.94 cm2, P = 0.001). The areas under the ROC curve for the pectoralis major, intercostal, and the musculus serratus anterior muscle areas were 81.56%, 73.28%, and 71.56%, respectively. Pectoralis major area was negatively associated with the number of AECOPD during the preceding year after adjustment (relative risk, 0.936; 95% confidence interval, 0.879-0.996; P = 0.037).

CONCLUSION

The pectoralis major muscle area was negative associated with COPD. Moreover, there was a negative correlation between the number of AECOPD during the preceding year and the pectoralis major area.

Development and validation of a nomogram model for mortality prediction in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients: A prospective observational study in the RealDTC cohort

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death worldwide. There is no nomogram model available for mortality prediction of stable COPD. We intended to develop and validate a nomogram model to predict mortality risk in stable COPD patients for personalised prognostic assessment.

Methods

A prospective observational study was made of COPD outpatients registered in the RealDTC study between December 2016 and December 2019. Patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. We used Lasso regression to screen predicted variables. Further, we evaluated the prognostic performance using the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve. We used the AUC, concordance index, and decision curve analysis to evaluate the net benefits and utility of the nomogram compared with three earlier prediction models.

Results

Of 2499 patients, the median follow-up was 38 months. The characteristics of the patients between the training cohort (n = 1743) and the validation cohort (n = 756) were similar. ABEODS nomogram model, combining age, body mass index, educational level, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and severe exacerbation in the first year, was constructed to predict mortality in stable COPD patients. In the integrative analysis of training and validation cohorts of the nomogram model, the three-year mortality prediction achieved AUC = 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.81, 0.88 and AUC = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.74, 0.86, respectively. The ABEODS nomogram model preserved excellent calibration in both the training cohort and validation cohort. The time-dependent AUC, concordance index, and net benefit of the nomogram model were higher than those of BODEx, updated ADO, and DOSE, respectively.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a prognostic nomogram model that accurately predicts mortality across the COPD severity spectrum. The proposed ABEODS nomogram model performed better than earlier models, including BODEx, updated ADO, and DOSE in Chinese patients with COPD.

Registration

ChiCTR-POC-17010431.

Association between body mass index and respiratory symptoms in US adults: a national cross-sectional study

The correlation between body mass index (BMI) and the development of cough, shortness of breath, and dyspnea is unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between these parameters. Data from individuals who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2003 and 2012 were analyzed. Weighted logistic regression analysis and smoothed curve fitting were used to examine the correlation between BMI and respiratory symptoms. In addition, the relationship between BMI, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and bronchial asthma was examined. Stratified analysis was used to discover inflection points and specific groups. Weighted logistic regression and smoothed curve fitting revealed a U-shaped relationship between BMI and respiratory symptoms. The U-shaped relationship in BMI was also observed in patients with bronchial asthma and COPD. Stratified analysis showed that the correlation between BMI and wheezing and dyspnea was influenced by race. In addition, non-Hispanic black individuals had a higher risk of developing cough than individuals of the other three races [OR 1.040 (1.021, 1.060), p < 0.0001], and they also exhibited an inverted U-shaped relationship between BMI and bronchial asthma. However, the association of BMI with cough, wheezing, dyspnea, COPD, and asthma was not affected by sex. High or low BMI was associated with cough, shortness of breath, and dyspnea, and has been linked to bronchial asthma and COPD. These findings provide new insights into the management of respiratory symptoms and respiratory diseases.

The treatable traits approach to adults with obstructive airways disease in primary and secondary care

The treatable traits approach is based on the recognition that the different clinical phenotypes of asthma and chronic obstructive airways disease (COPD) are a heterogeneous group of conditions with different underlying mechanisms and clinical manifestations, and that the identification and treatment of the specific clinical features or traits facilitates a personalised approach to management. Fundamentally, it recognises two important concepts. Firstly, that treatment for obstructive lung disease can achieve better outcomes if guided by specific clinical characteristics. Secondly, that in patients with a diagnosis of asthma, and/or COPD, poor respiratory health may also be due to numerous overlapping disorders that can present with symptoms that may be indistinguishable from asthma and/or COPD, comorbidities that might require treatment in their own right, and lifestyle or environmental factors that, if addressed, might lead to better control rather than simply increasing airways directed treatment. While these concepts are well accepted, how best to implement this personalised medicine approach in primary and secondary care within existing resource constraints remains uncertain. In this review, we consider the evidence base for this management approach and propose that the priority now is to assess different prototype templates for the identification and management of treatable traits in both asthma and COPD, in primary, secondary and tertiary care, to provide the evidence that will guide their use in clinical practice in different health care systems.

Association between fresh fruit consumption and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related hospitalization and death in Chinese adults: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Existing evidence suggests that fruit consumption is a significant influencing factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but this is unclear in the Chinese population. We examined the association of fresh fruit consumption with the risk of COPD-related hospitalization and death in a nationwide, population-based prospective cohort from China.

METHODS

Between 2004 and 2008, the China Kadoorie Biobank recruited >0.5 million adults aged 30 to 79 years from ten diverse regions across China. After excluding individuals diagnosed with major chronic diseases and prevalent COPD, the prospective analysis included 421,428 participants. Cox regression was used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between fresh fruit consumption and risk of COPD-related hospitalization and death, with adjustment for established and potential confounders.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, 11,292 COPD hospitalization events and deaths were documented, with an overall incidence rate of 2.47/1000 person-years. Participants who consumed fresh fruit daily had a 22% lower risk of COPD-related hospitalization and death compared with non-consumers (HR = 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71-0.87). The inverse association between fresh fruit consumption and COPD-related hospitalization and death was stronger among non-current smokers and participants with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5 kg/m 2 ≤ BMI < 24.0 kg/m 2 ); the corresponding HRs for daily fresh fruit consumption were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.68-0.89) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.59-0.79) compared with their counterparts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

High-frequency fruit consumption was associated with a lower risk of COPD in Chinese adults. Increasing fruit consumption, together with cigarette cessation and weight control, should be considered in the prevention and management of COPD.

Sociodemographic and Geographic Risk Factors for All-Cause Mortality in Patients with COPD

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Identifying both individual and community risk factors associated with higher mortality is essential to improve outcomes. Few population-based studies of mortality in COPD include both individual characteristics and community risk factors.

Objective

We used geocoded, patient-level data to describe the associations between individual demographics, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and all-cause mortality.

Methods

We performed a nationally representative retrospective cohort analysis of all patients enrolled in the Veteran Health Administration with at least one ICD-9 or ICD-10 code for COPD in 2016-2019. We obtained demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geocoded residential address. Area Deprivation Index and rurality were classified using individual geocoded residential addresses. We used logistic regression models to assess the association between these characteristics and age-adjusted all-cause mortality.

Results

Of 1,106,163 COPD patients, 33.4% were deceased as of January 2021. In age-adjusted models, having more comorbidities, Black/African American race (OR 1.09 [95% CI: 1.08-1.11]), and higher neighborhood disadvantage (OR 1.30 [95% CI: 1.28-1.32]) were associated with all-cause mortality. Female sex (OR 0.67 [95% CI: 0.65-0.69]), Asian race (OR 0.64, [95% CI: 0.59-0.70]), and living in a more rural area were associated with lower odds of all-cause mortality. After adjusting for age, comorbidities, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and rurality, the association with Black/African American race reversed.

Conclusion

All-cause mortality in COPD patients is disproportionately higher in patients living in poorer neighborhoods and urban areas, suggesting the impact of social determinants of health on COPD outcomes. Black race was associated with higher age-adjusted all-cause mortality, but this association was abrogated after adjusting for gender, socioeconomic status, comorbidities, and urbanicity. Future studies should focus on exploring mechanisms by which disparities arise and developing interventions to address these.

High urinary desmosine is associated with long-term mortality in patients with COPD

COPD patients with high baseline urinary desmosines demonstrated significantly higher mortality than those with lower urinary desmosines. High urinary desmosine is independently associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality in COPD patients. https://bit.ly/4015xZ9.

Early Desaturation During 6-Minute Walk Test is a Predictor of Mortality in COPD

BACKGROUND

Oxygen desaturation during exercise is mainly observed in severe cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is associated with a worse prognosis, but little is known about the type of desaturation that causes the greatest risk of mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We studied all of the 6-min walk tests performed periodically at a tertiary hospital over a period of 12 years in patients with moderate or severe COPD. We classified patients as non-desaturators if they did not suffer a drop in oxygen saturation (SpO2 < 88%) during the test, early desaturators if the time until desaturation was < 1 min, and non-early desaturators if it was longer than 1 min. The average length of follow-up per patient was 5.6 years.

RESULTS

Of the 319 patients analyzed, 126 non-desaturators, 91 non-early desaturators and 102 early desaturators were identified. The mortality analysis showed that early desaturators had a mortality of 73%, while it was 38% for non-early desaturators and 28% for non-desaturators, with a survival of 5.9 years compared to 7.5 years and 9.6 years, respectively (hazard ratio of 3.50; 95% CI 2.3-5.3; p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The early desaturation seen in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with greater mortality and is likely responsible for the poor prognosis shown globally in patients who desaturate. The survival of patients with early desaturation is almost 4 years less with respect to non-desaturators, and they, thus, require closer observation.

Are Predictors for Overall Mortality in COPD Patients Robust over Time?

(1) Background: Mortality is a major outcome in research on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with various predictors described. However, the dynamic courses of important predictors over time are disregarded. This study evaluates if longitudinal assessment of predictors provides additional information on the mortality risk in COPD when compared with a cross-sectional analysis.; (2) In a longitudinal, prospective, non-interventional cohort study including mild to very severe COPD patients, mortality and its various possible predictors were annually assessed up to seven years.; (3) Results: 297 patients were analysed. Mean (SD) age was 62.5 (7.6) years and 66% males. Mean (SD) FEV1 was 48.8 (21.4)%. A total of 105 events (35.4%) happened with a median (95% CI) survival time of 8.2 (7.2/NA) years. No evidence for a difference between the raw variable and the variable history on the predictive value for all tested variables over each visit was found. There was no evidence for changing effect estimates (coefficients) across the study visits due to the longitudinal assessment; (4) Conclusions: We found no evidence that predictors of mortality in COPD are time dependent. This implies that cross-sectional measured predictors show robust effect estimates over time and multiple assessments seem not to change the predictive value of the measure.

A qualitative study of the sources of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related emotional distress

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to identify the sources of illness-related emotional distress from the perspective of individuals living with mild to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

A qualitative study design with purposive sampling was applied at a Swiss University Hospital. Eleven interviews were conducted with individuals who suffered from COPD. To analyze data, framework analysis was used, guided by the recently presented model of illness-related emotional distress.

RESULTS

Six main sources for COPD-related emotional distress were identified: physical symptoms, treatment, restricted mobility, restricted social participation, unpredictability of disease course and COPD as stigmatizing disease. Additionally, life events, multimorbidity and living situation were found to be sources of non-COPD-related distress. Negative emotions ranged from anger, sadness, and frustration to desperation giving rise to the desire to die. Although most patients experience emotional distress regardless of the severity of COPD, the sources of distress appear to have an individual manifestation.

DISCUSSION

There is a need for a careful assessment of emotional distress among patients with COPD at all stages of the disease to provide patient-tailored interventions.

Race and Sex Differences in Mortality in Individuals with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: Despite differences in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) comorbidities, race- and sex-based differences in all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality are not well described. Objectives: To examine mortality differences in COPD by race-sex and underlying mechanisms. Methods: Medicare claims were used to identify COPD among REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) cohort participants. Mortality rates were calculated using adjudicated causes of death. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality comparing race-sex groups were modeled with Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: In the 2,148-member COPD subcohort, 49% were women, and 34% were Black individuals; 1,326 deaths occurred over a median 7.5 years (interquartile range, 3.9-10.5 yr) follow-up. All-cause mortality per 1,000 person-years comparing Black versus White men was 101.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.3-115.8) versus 93.9 (95% CI, 86.3-102.3; P = 0.99); comparing Black versus White women, all-cause mortality per 1,000 person-years was 74.2 (95% CI, 65.0-84.8) versus 70.6 (95% CI, 63.5-78.5; P = 0.99). Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was the leading cause-specific mortality among all race-sex groups. HR for CVD and chronic lung disease mortality were nonsignificant comparing Black versus White men. HR for CVD death was higher in Black compared with White women (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.06-1.95), whereas chronic lung disease death was lower (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.25-0.77). These differences were attributable to higher CVD risk factor burden among Black women. Conclusions: In the REGARDS COPD cohort, there were no race-sex differences in all-cause mortality. CVD was the most common cause of death for all race-sex groups with COPD. Black women with COPD had a higher risk of CVD-related mortality than White women. CVD comorbidity management, especially among Black individuals, may improve mortality outcomes.

Burden and treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among people using illicit opioids: matched cohort study in England

Objective

To understand the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among people who use illicit opioids such as heroin, and evaluate inequalities in treatment.

Design

Cohort study.

Setting

Patients registered at primary care practices in England.

Participants

106 789 patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with illicit opioid use recorded between 2001 and 2018, and a subcohort of 3903 patients with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. For both cohorts, the study sampled a comparison group with no history of illicit opioids that was matched by age, sex, and general practice.

Main outcome measures

In the base cohort: diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and death due to the disease. In the subcohort: five treatments (influenza vaccine, pneumococcal vaccine, pulmonary rehabilitation, bronchodilators or corticosteroids, and smoking cessation support) and exacerbations requiring hospital admission.

Results

680 of 106 789 participants died due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, representing 5.1% of all cause deaths. Illicit opioid use was associated with 14.59 times (95% confidence interval 12.28 to 17.33) the risk of death related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 5.89 times (5.62 to 6.18) the risk of a diagnosis of the disease. Among patients with a new diagnosis, comorbid illicit opioid use was associated with current smoking, underweight, worse lung function, and more severe breathlessness. After adjusting for these differences, illicit opioids were associated with 1.96 times (1.82 to 2.12) times the risk of exacerbations requiring hospital admission, but not associated with a substantially different probability of the five treatments.

Conclusions

Death due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is about 15 times more common among people who use illicit opioids than the general population. This inequality does not appear to be explained by differences in treatment, but late diagnosis of the disease among people who use illicit opioids might contribute.

MAIT cell counts are associated with the risk of hospitalization in COPD

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by persistent airflow limitation associated with chronic inflammation in the airways. Mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells are unconventional, innate-like T cells highly abundant in mucosal tissues including the lung. We hypothesized that the characteristics of MAIT cells in circulation may be prospectively associated with COPD morbidity.

METHODS

COPD subjects (n = 61) from the Tools for Identifying Exacerbations (TIE) study were recruited when in stable condition. At study entry, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) was measured and peripheral blood mononuclear cells were cryopreserved for later analysis by flow cytometry. Patients were followed for 3 years to record clinically meaningful outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients who required hospitalization at one or more occasions during the 3-year follow-up (n = 21) had lower MAIT cell counts in peripheral blood at study inclusion, compared with patients who did not get hospitalized (p = 0.036). In contrast, hospitalized and never hospitalized patients did not differ in CD8 or CD4 T cell counts (p = 0.482 and p = 0.221, respectively). Moreover, MAIT cells in hospitalized subjects showed a more activated phenotype with higher CD38 expression (p = 0.014), and there was a trend towards higher LAG-3 expression (p = 0.052). Conventional CD4 and CD8 T cells were similar between the groups. Next we performed multi-variable logistic regression analysis with hospitalizations as dependent variable, and FEV₁, GOLD 2017 group, and quantity or activation of MAIT and conventional T cells as independent variables. MAIT cell count, CD38 expression on MAIT cells, and LAG-3 expression on both MAIT and CD8 T cells were all independently associated with the risk of hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that MAIT cells might reflect a novel, FEV₁-independent immunological dimension in the complexity of COPD. The potential implication of MAIT cells in COPD pathogenesis and MAIT cells' prognostic potential deserve further investigation.

Development and validation of a prediction index for recent mortality in advanced COPD patients

The primary barrier to initiating palliative care for advanced COPD patients is the unpredictable course of the disease. We enroll 752 COPD patients into the study and validate the prediction tools for 1-year mortality using the current guidelines for palliative care. We also develop a composite prediction index for 1-year mortality and validate it in another cohort of 342 patients. Using the current prognostic models for recent mortality in palliative care, the best area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality is 0.68. Using the Modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score and oxygen saturation to define the combined dyspnea and oxygenation (DO) index, we find that the AUC of the DO index is 0.84 for predicting mortality in the validated cohort. Predictions of 1-year mortality based on the current palliative care guideline for COPD patients are poor. The DO index exhibits better predictive ability than other models in the study.

Soluble ST2 and All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease—A 10-Year Cohort Study

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an inflammatory condition with constantly increasing mortality rates. Interleukin (IL)-33 and its decoy receptor, soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2), play a central role in the inflammatory response during infection. sST2 was suggested as a factor in the pathogenesis of COPD and emerged as a predictor of mortality in other non-communicable diseases. The role of sST2 as a predictor of mortality remains unclear in COPD yet. In this cohort study, we measured circulating concentrations of IL-33 and sST2 in the serum of patients with stable COPD (n = 59), patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (n = 29) and smoking (n = 20) and non-smoking controls (n = 20), using commercially available ELISAs, and investigated the prognostic role of sST2 in stable COPD. sST2 levels were significantly higher in COPD patients and smokers compared with non-smoking controls. We identified systolic blood pressure, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1% predicted), neutrophil count, lactate dehydrogenase and pack-years index as independent predictors of sST2 levels. During a median follow-up time of 10.6 years, 28 patients (47.5%) died. sST2 was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with COPD with a hazard ratio of 2.9 (95% CI 1.1–8.4, p = 0.035) per one standard deviation after adjustment for age, sex, pack-years, FEV1% predicted and C-reactive protein (CRP). sST2 concentrations are associated with severity of disease and long-term outcome in patients with COPD.

Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Acute Respiratory Failure, Ventilator Dependence, and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of mortality and contributes to high morbidity worldwide. Patients with COPD have a higher risk for acute respiratory failure, ventilator dependence, and mortality after hospitalization compared with the general population. Accurate and early risk detection will provide more information for early management and better decision making. This study aimed to build prediction models using patients’ characteristics, laboratory data, and comorbidities for early detection of acute respiratory failure, ventilator dependence, and mortality in patients with COPD after hospitalization. We retrospectively collected the electronic medical records of 5061 patients with COPD in three hospitals of the Chi Mei Medical Group, Taiwan. After data cleaning, we built three prediction models for acute respiratory failure, ventilator dependence, and mortality using seven machine learning algorithms. Based on the AUC value, the best model for mortality was built by the XGBoost algorithm (AUC = 0.817), the best model for acute respiratory failure was built by random forest algorithm (AUC = 0.804), while the best model for ventilator dependence was built by LightGBM algorithm (AUC = 0.809). A web service application was implemented with the best models and integrated into the existing hospital information system for physician’s trials and evaluations. Our machine learning models exhibit excellent predictive quality and can therefore provide physicians with a useful decision-making reference for the adverse prognosis of COPD patients.

Association of Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease With County Health Disparities in New York State

IMPORTANCE

Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States, which imposes a considerable burden on individuals, families, and societies. The association between county-level health disparity and CLRD outcomes in New York state needs investigation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the associations of CLRD outcomes with county-level health disparities in New York state.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, CLRD age-adjusted hospitalization for 2016 and mortality rates from 2014 to 2016 were obtained from the New York state Community Health Indicator Reports provided by the New York state Department of Health. County Health Rankings were used to evaluate various health factors to provide a summary z score for each county representing the county health status and how that county ranks in the state. Data analysis was performed from November 2020 to March 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes were age-adjusted hospitalization and mortality rates for CLRD. The z score was calculated from the County Health Rankings, which includes subindicators of health behaviors, clinical care, social and economic factors, and physical environment. Pearson r and linear regression models were estimated.

RESULTS

During the study, 60 335 discharges were documented as CLRD hospitalizations in 2016 and 20 612 people died from CLRD from 2014 to 2016 in New York state. After adjusting for age, the CLRD hospitalization rate was 27.6 per 10 000 population, and the mortality rate was 28.9 per 100 000 population. Among 62 counties, Bronx had the highest hospitalization rate (64.7 per 10 000 population) whereas Hamilton had the lowest hospitalization rate (6.6 per 10 000 population). Mortality rates ranged from 17.4 per 100 000 population in Kings to 62.9 per 100 000 population in Allegany. County Health Rankings indicated Nassau had the lowest z score (the healthiest), at -1.17, but Bronx had the highest z score (the least healthy), at 1.43, for overall health factors in 2018. An increase of 1 point in social and economic factors z score was associated with an increase of 17.6 hospitalizations per 10 000 population (β = 17.61 [95% CI, 10.36 to 24.87]; P < .001). A 1-point increase in health behaviors z score was associated with an increase of 41.4 deaths per 100 000 population (β = 41.42 [95% CI, 29.88 to 52.97]; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, CLRD outcomes were significantly associated with county-level health disparities in New York state. These findings suggest that public health interventions and resources aimed at improving CLRD outcomes should be tailored and prioritized in health disadvantaged areas.

Mechanisms, Pathophysiology and Currently Proposed Treatments of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading global causes of morbidity and mortality. A hallmark of COPD is progressive airflow obstruction primarily caused by cigarette smoke (CS). CS exposure causes an imbalance favoring pro- over antioxidants (oxidative stress), leading to transcription factor activation and increased expression of inflammatory mediators and proteases. Different cell types, including macrophages, epithelial cells, neutrophils, and T lymphocytes, contribute to COPD pathophysiology. Alteration in cell functions results in the generation of an oxidative and inflammatory microenvironment, which contributes to disease progression. Current treatments include inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilator therapy. However, these therapies do not effectively halt disease progression. Due to the complexity of its pathophysiology, and the risk of exacerbating symptoms with existing therapies, other specific and effective treatment options are required. Therapies directly or indirectly targeting the oxidative imbalance may be promising alternatives. This review briefly discusses COPD pathophysiology, and provides an update on the development and clinical testing of novel COPD treatments.

Adaptive Capacities and Complexity of Heart Rate Variability in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Throughout Pulmonary Rehabilitation

Introduction

The complexity of bio-signals, like R-R intervals, is considered a reflection of the organism's capacity to adapt. However, this association still remains to be consolidated. We investigated whether the complexity of R-R intervals at rest and during perturbation [6-minute walking test (6MWT)], yielded information regarding adaptive capacities in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients during pulmonary rehabilitation (PR).

Methods

In total, 23 COPD patients (64 ± 8 years, with forced expiratory volume in 1 s of 55 ± 19% predicted) were tested three times at the start (T1), middle (T2), and end (T3) of 4 weeks PR. Each time, R-R intervals were measured at rest and during 6MWT. The complexity of R-R intervals was assessed by evenly spaced Detrended Fluctuations Analysis and evaluated by the fractal exponent α and deviation from maximal complexity |1-α|.

Results

The 6MWT distance was significantly increased at T2 and T3 compared to T1. Neither α nor |1-α| at rest and during perturbation significantly changed throughout PR, nor were they consistently associated with 6MWT distances at each time. Throughout the PR program, complexity during the 6MWT was significantly lower compared to the rest. The level of α during 6MWT at T1 was positively correlated with the improvement of the 6MWT distance throughout the PR program.

Discussion

Reduced complexity in COPD patients during acute perturbation at the beginning of PR supports a decreased improvement of the 6MWT distance throughout PR. This result seems consistent with the notion that the complexity reflects the patients' adaptive capacities and could therefore become a clinical indicator in an applied perspective.

Skeletal muscle mitochondrial adaptations induced by long-term cigarette smoke exposure

Because patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are often physically inactive, it is still unclear whether the lower respiratory capacity in the locomotor muscles of these patients is due to cigarette smoking per se or is secondary to physical deconditioning. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to examine mitochondrial alterations in the quadriceps muscle of 10 mice exposed to 8 mo of cigarette smoke, a sedentary mouse model of emphysema, and 9 control mice, using immunoblotting, spectrophotometry, and high-resolution respirometry in permeabilized muscle fibers. Mice exposed to smoke displayed a twofold increase in the oxidative stress marker, 4-HNE, (P < 0.05) compared with control mice. This was accompanied by significant decrease in protein expression of UCP3 (65%), ANT (58%), and mitochondrial complexes II-V (∼60%-75%). In contrast, maximal ADP-stimulated respiration with complex I and II substrates (CON: 23.6 ± 6.6 and SMO: 19.2 ± 8.2 ρM·mg-1·s-1) or octanoylcarnitine (CON: 21.8 ± 9.0 and SMO: 16.5 ± 6.6 ρM·mg-1·s-1) measured in permeabilized muscle fibers, as well as citrate synthase activity, were not significantly different between groups. Collectively, our findings revealed that sedentary mice exposed to cigarette smoke for 8 mo, which is typically associated with pulmonary inflammation and emphysema, exhibited a preserved mitochondrial respiratory capacity for various substrates, including fatty acid, in the skeletal muscle. However, the mitochondrial adaptations induced by cigarette smoke favored the development of chronic oxidative stress, which can indirectly contribute to augment the susceptibility to muscle fatigue and exercise intolerance.NEW & NOTEWORTHY It is unclear whether the exercise intolerance and skeletal muscle mitochondrial dysfunction observed in patients with COPD is due to cigarette smoke exposure, per se, or if they are secondary consequences to inactivity. Herein, while long-term exposure to cigarette smoke induces oxidative stress and an altered skeletal muscle phenotype, cigarette smoke does not directly contribute to mitochondrial dysfunction. With this evidence, we demonstrate the critical role of physical inactivity in cigarette smoke-related skeletal muscle dysfunction.

Assessment of risk factors responsible for rapid deterioration of lung function over a period of one year in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Compromised lung function is a common feature of COPD patients, but certain factors increase the rate of lung function decline in COPD patients. The objective of the current study was to investigate the effect of different clinically important factors responsible for rapid deterioration of lung function quantified as ≥ 60 ml decline in FEV1 over a period of one year. COPD patients recruited from the chest clinic of Penang hospital were followed-up for one year from August 2018 to August 2019. Rapid deterioration of lung function was defined as greater than 60 ml/year decline in force expiratory volume in one second. Among 367 included patients 73.84% were male, with mean age 65.26 (9.6) years and % predicted FEV1 51.07 (11.84). 30.27% patients showed mean decline of ≥ 60 ml in FEV1. The regression analysis showed that current smoking relative risk (RR) = 2.38 (1.78-3.07), p < 0.001); GOLD Stage III& IV RR = 1.43 (1.27-1.97), p < 0.001); mMRC score 3 to 4 RR = 2.03 (1.74-2.70), p < 0.01); SGRQ-C score ≥ 10 points difference RR = 2.01 (1.58-2.73), p < 0.01); SGRQ-C symptoms Score ≥ 10 points difference RR = 1.48 (1.23-2.29), p < 0.001); 6MWT < 350 m RR = 2.29 (1.87-3.34), p < 0.01); ≥ 3 exacerbation in study year RR = 2.28 (1.58-2.42, p < 0.001); 8 or more hospital admission days (RR = 3.62 (2.66-4.20), p < 0.001); Charlson comorbidity index ≥ 3 RR = 3.18 (2.23-3.76), p < 0.01) and emphysema RR = 1.31 (1.15-1.79), p < 0.01) were significant risk factors for the rapid deterioration of lung function (FEV1 decline ≥ 60 ml). Among different factors CCI score ≥ 3, abrupt decline in health status, exacerbation frequency ≥ 3, hospital admission days ≥ 8 and emphysema were reported as risk factors for rapid deterioration of lung function.

Combined assessment of pulmonary arterial enlargement and coronary calcification predicts the prognosis of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

INTRODUCTION

In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chest computed tomography (CT) provides clinically important cardiovascular findings, which include diameter of pulmonary artery (PA), its ratio to the diameter of the aorta (PA:A ratio), and coronary artery calcium score (CACS). The clinical importance of these cardiovascular findings has not been fully assessed in Japan, where cardiovascular morbidity and/or mortality is reported to be much less compared with Western counterparts.

METHODS

PA diameter and PA:A ratio were measured in 172 and 130 patients with COPD who enrolled in the Hokkaido COPD cohort study and the Kyoto University cohort, respectively. CACS was measured in 131 and 128 patients in each cohort.

RESULTS

While the highest quartile group in PA diameter was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared to the lowest quartile group in both cohorts, individual assessments of PA:A ratio and CACS were not associated with the long-term clinical outcomes. When PA diameter and CACS were combined, patients with PA enlargement (diameter >29.5 mm) and/or coronary calcification (score >440.8) were associated with higher all-cause mortality in both cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Combined assessment of PA enlargement and CACS was associated with poor prognosis, which provides a clinical advantage in management of patients with COPD even in geographical regions with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Acute effects of fine particulate matter constituents on cardiopulmonary function in a panel of COPD patients

BACKGROUND

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has been linked with adverse cardiorespiratory health conditions. However, evidence for PM_2.5 constituents is still scarce, especially among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the associations of short-term exposure to different chemical constituents of PM_2.5 with measures of cardiac and lung function in COPD patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective panel study among 100 COPD patients who received repeated measures of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), forced vital capacity (FVC) and peak expiratory flow (PEF) in Shanghai, China from August 2014 to September 2019. Daily PM_2.5 and PM_2.5 constituents were obtained from fixed-site monitoring station. Linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the associations of PM_2.5.

RESULTS

We found water-soluble ions of PM_2.5, mainly NO₃^-, SO₄^2-, and NH₄⁺ were robustly associated with reduced LVEF, and the reductions in LVEF associated with an IQR increase of them ranged from 1.8% to 2.0% (lag 1 d). Metal constituents such as Cu and As were associated with FEV₁, FVC and PEF. The corresponding reductions in lung function parameters for an IQR increase of them ranged from 1.4% to 2.3% (lag 0 or 1 d). These associations remained relatively robust after adjusting for total PM_2.5 mass and gaseous pollutants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that water-soluble ions and several metal/metalloid elements might be important constituents in PM_2.5 that were associated with reduced cardiorespiratory function among COPD patients.

Frailty, a Dimension of Impaired Functional Status in Advanced COPD: Utility and Clinical Applicability

Background and Objectives: In advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), functional status is significantly impaired mainly as a result of disease related respiratory symptoms such as dyspnea or as a result of fatigue, which is the extra-respiratory symptom the most prevalent in this setting. "Physical" frailty, considered to be an aging phenotype, has defining traits that can also be considered when studying impaired functional status, but little is known about this relationship in advanced COPD. This review discusses the relevance of this type of frailty in advanced COPD and evaluates it utility and its clinical applicability as a potential outcome measure in palliative care for COPD. Materials and Methods: A conceptual review on the functional status as an outcome measure of mortality and morbidity in COPD, and an update on the definition and traits of frailty. Results: Data on the prognostic role of frailty in COPD are rather limited, but individual data on traits of frailty demonstrating their relationship with mortality and morbidity in advanced COPD are available and supportive. Conclusions: Frailty assessment in COPD patients is becoming a relevant issue not only for its potential prognostic value for increased morbidity or for mortality, but also for its potential role as a measure of functional status in palliative care for advanced COPD.

Pulmonary function testing in COPD: looking beyond the curtain of FEV1

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) management remains challenging due to the high heterogeneity of clinical symptoms and the complex pathophysiological basis of the disease. Airflow limitation, diagnosed by spirometry, remains the cornerstone of the diagnosis. However, the calculation of the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) alone, has limitations in uncovering the underlying complexity of the disease. Incorporating additional pulmonary function tests (PFTs) in the everyday clinical evaluation of COPD patients, like resting volume, capacity and airway resistance measurements, diffusion capacity measurements, forced oscillation technique, field and cardiopulmonary exercise testing and muscle strength evaluation, may prove essential in tailoring medical management to meet the needs of such a heterogeneous patient population. We aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the available PFTs, which can be incorporated into the primary care physician's practice to enhance the efficiency of COPD management.

Markers of disease activity in COPD: an 8-year mortality study in the ECLIPSE cohort

Rationale

There are no validated measures of disease activity in COPD. Since “active” disease is expected to have worse outcomes (e.g. mortality), we explored potential markers of disease activity in patients enrolled in the ECLIPSE cohort in relation to 8-year all-cause mortality.

Methods

We investigated 1) how changes in relevant clinical variables over time (1 or 3 years) relate to 8-year mortality; 2) whether these variables inter-relate; and 3) if any clinical, imaging and/or biological marker measured cross-sectionally at baseline relates to any activity component.

Results

Results showed that 1) after 1 year, hospitalisation for COPD, exacerbation frequency, worsening of body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea and exercise (BODE) index or health status (St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ)) and persistence of systemic inflammation were significantly associated with 8-year mortality; 2) at 3 years, the same markers, plus forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) decline and to a lesser degree computed tomography (CT) emphysema, showed association, thus qualifying as markers of disease activity; 3) changes in FEV₁, inflammatory cytokines and CT emphysema were not inter-related, while the multidimensional indices (BODE and SGRQ) showed modest correlations; and 4) changes in these markers could not be predicted by any baseline cross-sectional measure.

Conclusions

In COPD, 1- and 3-year changes in exacerbation frequency, systemic inflammation, BODE and SGRQ scores and FEV₁ decline are independent markers of disease activity associated with 8-year all-cause mortality. These disease activity markers are generally independent and not predictable from baseline measurements.

In patients with COPD, 1- and 3-year changes in exacerbation frequency, systemic inflammation, BODE and SGRQ scores, and FEV₁ decline, are independent markers of disease activity associated with 8-year all-cause mortalityhttps://bit.ly/2CyifcN

Prediction of Mortality Using Different COPD Risk Assessments - A 12-Year Follow-Up

Purpose

A multidimensional approach in the risk assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is preferable. The aim of this study is to compare the prognostic ability for mortality by different COPD assessment systems; spirometric staging, classification by GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017, the age, dyspnea, obstruction (ADO) and the dyspnea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation (DOSE) indices.

Patients and Methods

A total of 490 patients diagnosed with COPD were recruited from primary and secondary care in central Sweden in 2005. The cohort was followed until 2017. Data for categorization using the different assessment systems were obtained through questionnaire data from 2005 and medical record reviews between 2000 and 2003. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess mortality risk. Receiver operating characteristic curves estimated areas under the curve (AUC) to evaluate each assessment systems´ ability to predict mortality.

Results

By the end of follow-up, 49% of the patients were deceased. The mortality rate was higher for patients categorized as stage 3–4, GOLD D in both GOLD classifications and those with a DOSE score above 4 and ADO score above 8. The ADO index was most accurate for predicting mortality, AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.83) for all-cause mortality and 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.85) for respiratory mortality. The AUC values for stages 1–4, GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017 and DOSE index were 0.73, 0.66, 0.63 and 0.69, respectively, for all-cause mortality.

Conclusion

All of the risk assessment systems predict mortality. The ADO index was in this study the best predictor and could be a helpful tool in COPD risk assessment.

Relationship between Emphysema Progression at CT and Mortality in Ever-Smokers: Results from the COPDGene and ECLIPSE Cohorts

Background The relationship between emphysema progression and long-term outcomes is unclear. Purpose To determine the relationship between emphysema progression at CT and mortality among participants with emphysema. Materials and Methods In a secondary analysis of two prospective observational studies, COPDGene (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00608764) and Evaluation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE; clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00292552), emphysema was measured at CT at two points by using the volume-adjusted lung density at the 15th percentile of the lung density histogram (hereafter, lung density perc15) method. The association between emphysema progression rate and all-cause mortality was analyzed by using Cox regression adjusted for ethnicity, sex, baseline age, pack-years, and lung density, baseline and change in smoking status, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and 6-minute walk distance. In COPDGene, respiratory mortality was analyzed by using the Fine and Gray method. Results A total of 5143 participants (2613 men [51%]; mean age, 60 years ± 9 [standard deviation]) in COPDGene and 1549 participants (973 men [63%]; mean age, 62 years ± 8) in ECLIPSE were evaluated, of which 2097 (40.8%) and 1179 (76.1%) had emphysema, respectively. Baseline imaging was performed between January 2008 and December 2010 for COPDGene and January 2006 and August 2007 for ECLIPSE. Follow-up imaging was performed after 5.5 years ± 0.6 in COPDGene and 3.0 years ± 0.2 in ECLIPSE, and mortality was assessed over the ensuing 5 years in both. For every 1 g/L per year faster rate of decline in lung density perc15, all-cause mortality increased by 8% in COPDGene (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.16; P = .03) and 6% in ECLIPSE (HR, 1.06; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.13; P = .045). In COPDGene, respiratory mortality increased by 22% (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.31; P < .001) for the same increase in the rate of change in lung density perc15. Conclusion In ever-smokers with emphysema, emphysema progression at CT was associated with increased all-cause and respiratory mortality. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Lee and Park in this issue.

Clinical Characteristics and Prognosis of COPD Patients Hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2

Objective

To describe the characteristics and prognosis of patients with COPD admitted to the hospital due to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

The SEMI-COVID registry is an ongoing retrospective cohort comprising consecutive COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Spain since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Data on demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory tests, radiology, treatment, and progress are collected. Patients with COPD were selected and compared to patients without COPD. Factors associated with a poor prognosis were analyzed.

Results

Of the 10,420 patients included in the SEMI-COVID registry as of May 21, 2020, 746 (7.16%) had a diagnosis of COPD. Patients with COPD are older than those without COPD (77 years vs 68 years) and more frequently male. They have more comorbidities (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, kidney failure) and a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (2 vs 1, p<0.001). The mortality rate in COPD patients was 38.3% compared to 19.2% in patients without COPD (p<0.001). Male sex, a history of hypertension, heart failure, moderate-severe chronic kidney disease, presence of cerebrovascular disease with sequelae, degenerative neurological disease, dementia, functional dependence, and a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index have been associated with increased mortality due to COVID-19 in COPD patients. Survival was higher among patients with COPD who were treated with hydroxychloroquine (87.1% vs 74.9%, p<0.001) and with macrolides (57.9% vs 50%, p<0.037). Neither prone positioning nor non-invasive mechanical ventilation, high-flow nasal cannula, or invasive mechanical ventilation were associated with a better prognosis.

Conclusion

COPD patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection have more severe disease and a worse prognosis than non-COPD patients.

¿La función muscular inspiratoria podría ser un equivalente de la insuflación pulmonar en los pacientes con EPOC?

Introduction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the respiratory disease that causes the greatest morbidity and mortality worldwide. Lung function parameters and systemic manifestations have been defined as prognostic factors; however, they have limitations. The aim of this study was to analyze whether inspiratory muscle strength could reflect lung hyperinflation, and therefore serve as a prognostic factor in COPD patients.

Method

We selected COPD patients who had performed a non-invasive respiratory muscle strength assessment and lung function testing between January 2015 and October 2017. Mortality was subsequently followed up until March 1, 2020.

Results

We included 140 COPD patients (GOLD stage I 5%, II 73.4%, and III 21.6%), of whom 10% died during follow-up. Bronchial obstruction, defined by FEV₁, was a good predictor of mortality (p = 0.004). Lung hyperinflation, defined as inspiratory capacity (IC)/total lung capacity less than 25 and IC less than 65% of predicted increased mortality in COPD patients (p = 0.001 and p = 0.06, respectively). In this cohort, inspiratory muscle strength, measured by SNIP, was not a prognostic factor (p = 0.629).

Conclusion

In COPD patients, lung hyperinflation is a prognostic factor, but inspiratory muscle function is not. Inspiratory muscle function in COPD patients depends not only on lung mechanics but also on intrinsic muscle factors.

One year after ICU admission for severe community-acquired pneumonia of bacterial, viral or unidentified etiology. What are the outcomes?

INTRODUCTION

Multiplex polymerase chain reaction (mPCR) for respiratory virus testing is increasingly used in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), however data on one-year outcome in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with reference to the causative pathogen are scarce.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a single-center retrospective study in 123 ICU patients who had undergone respiratory virus testing for CAP by mPCR and with known one-year survival status. Functional status including dyspnea (mMRC score), autonomy (ADL Katz score) and need for new home-care ventilatory support was assessed at a one-year post-ICU follow-up. Mortality rates and functional status were compared in patients with CAP of a bacterial, viral or unidentified etiology one year after ICU admission.

RESULTS

The bacterial, viral and unidentified groups included 19 (15.4%), 37 (30.1%), and 67 (54.5%) patients, respectively. In multivariate analysis, one-year mortality in the bacterial group was higher compared to the viral group (HR 2.92, 95% CI 1.71-7.28, p = 0.02) and tended to be higher compared to the unidentified etiology group (p = 0.06); but no difference was found between the viral and the unidentified etiology group (p = 0.43). In 64/83 one-year survivors with a post-ICU follow-up consultation, there were no differences in mMRC score, ADL Katz score and new home-care ventilatory support between the groups (p = 0.52, p = 0.37, p = 0.24, respectively). Severe dyspnea (mMRC score = 4 or death), severe autonomy deficiencies (ADL Katz score ≤ 2 or death), and major adverse respiratory events (new home-care ventilatory support or death) were observed in 52/104 (50.0%), 47/104 (45.2%), and 65/104 (62.5%) patients, respectively; with no difference between the bacterial, viral and unidentified group: p = 0.58, p = 0.06, p = 0.61, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CAP of bacterial origin had a poorer outcome than CAP of viral or unidentified origin. At one-year, impairment of functional status was frequently observed, with no difference according to the etiology.

Biomarkers in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: The Gateway to Precision Medicine

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a highly heterogeneous disease with limited adequate treatments. Biomarkers-which may relate to disease susceptibility, diagnosis, prognosis, or treatment response-are ideally suited to dissecting such a complex disease and form a critical component of the precision medicine paradigm. Not all potential candidates, however, make good biomarkers. To date, only plasma fibrinogen has been approved by regulatory bodies as a biomarker of exacerbation risk for clinical trial enrichment. This review outlines some of the challenges of biomarker research in COPD and highlights novel and promising biomarker candidates.

Early Predictors of Mortality in Patients with COPD, in Relation to Respiratory and Non-Respiratory Causes of Death - A National Register Study

Background

Both single factors and composite measures have been suggested to predict mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and there is a need to analyze the relative importance of each variable.

Objective

To explore the predictors of mortality for patients with COPD in relation to respiratory, cardiac, and malignant causes, as well as all causes of death.

Methods

After merging the Swedish Respiratory Tract Register (SRTR) and the Swedish Cause of Death Register, patients with respiratory, cardiac, and other causes of death were identified. Demographic and clinical variables from the deceased patients’ first registration with the SRTR were compared. Three univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted for different causes of death, with time from first registration to either death or a fixed end date as dependent variable, and variables regarding demographics, respiration, and comorbidities as independent variables.

Results

In the multivariable Cox models, mortality for patients with all causes of death was predicted by older age 1.79 (CI 1.41, 2.27), lower percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁ %) 0.99 (CI 0.98, 0.99), lower saturation 0.92 (CI 0.86, 0.97), worse dyspnea 1.48 (CI 1.26, 1.74) (p<0.002 to p<0.001), less exercise 0.91 (CI 0.85, 0.98), and heart disease 1.53 (CI 1.06, 2.19) (both p<0.05). Mortality for patients with respiratory causes was predicted by higher age 1.67 (CI 1.05, 2.65) (p<0.05), lower FEV_1% 0.98 (CI 0.97, 0.99), worse dyspnea 2.05 (CI 1.45, 2.90), and a higher number of exacerbations 1.27 (CI 1.11, 1.45) (p<0.001 in all comparisons). For patients with cardiac causes of death, mortality was predicted by lower FEV_1% 0.99 (CI 0.98, 0.99) (p=0.001) and lower saturation 0.82 (CI 0.76, 0.89) (p<0.001), older age 1.46 (CI 1.02, 2.09) (p<0.05), and presence of heart disease at first registration 2.06 (CI 1.13, 3.73) (p<0.05).

Conclusion

Obstruction predicted mortality in all models and dyspnea in two models and needs to be addressed. Comorbidity with heart disease could further worsen the COPD patient’s prognosis and should be treated by a multidisciplinary team of professional specialists.

Fibrotic Lung Disease at CT Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

Purpose

To evaluate the relationship between CT findings of diffuse lung disease and post-transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) outcomes.

Materials and Methods

Retrospective review of pre-TAVR CT scans obtained during 2012-2017 was conducted. Emphysema, reticulation, and honeycombing were separately scored using a five-point scale and applied to 10 images per examination. The fibrosis score was the sum of reticulation and honeycombing scores. Lung diseases were also assessed as dichotomous variables (zero vs nonzero scores). The two outcomes evaluated were death and the composite of death and readmission.

Results

The study included 373 patients with median age of 84 years (age range, 51-98 years; interquartile range, 79-88 years) and median follow-up of 333 days. Fibrosis and emphysema were present in 66 (17.7%) and 95 (25.5%) patients, respectively. Fibrosis as a dichotomous variable was independently associated with the composite of death and readmission (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; P = .030). In those without known chronic lung disease (CLD) (HR, 3.09; P = .024) and those without airway obstruction, defined by a ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second to the forced vital capacity greater than or equal to 70% (HR, 1.67, P = .039), CT evidence of fibrosis was a powerful predictor of adverse events. Neither emphysema score nor emphysema as a dichotomous variable was an independent predictor of outcome.

Conclusion

The presence of fibrosis on baseline CT scans was an independent predictor of adverse events after TAVR. In particular, fibrosis had improved predictive value in both patients without known CLD and patients without airway obstruction.Supplemental material is available for this article.© RSNA, 2020.

Survival benefit of lung transplantation compared with medical management and pulmonary rehabilitation for patients with end-stage COPD

BACKGROUND

COPD patients account for a large proportion of lung transplants; lung transplantation survival benefit for COPD patients is not well established.

METHODS

We identified 4521 COPD patients in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) dataset transplanted from May 2005 to August 2016, and 604 patients assigned to receive pulmonary rehabilitation and medical management in the National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT). After trimming the populations for NETT eligibility criteria and data completeness, 1337 UNOS and 596 NETT patients remained. Kaplan-Meier estimates of transplant-free survival from transplantation for UNOS, and NETT randomisation, were compared between propensity score-matched UNOS (n=401) and NETT (n=262) patients.

RESULTS

In propensity-matched analyses, transplanted patients had better survival compared to medically managed patients in NETT (p=0.003). Stratifying on 6 min walk distance (6 MWD) and FEV1, UNOS patients with 6 MWD <1000 ft (∼300 m) or FEV1 <20% of predicted had better survival than NETT counterparts (median survival 5.0 years UNOS versus 3.4 years NETT; log-rank p<0.0001), while UNOS patients with 6 MWD ≥1000 ft (∼300 m) and FEV1 ≥20% had similar survival to NETT counterparts (median survival, 5.4 years UNOS versus 4.9 years NETT; log-rank p=0.73), interaction p=0.01.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall survival is better for matched lung transplant patients compared with medical management alone. Patients who derive maximum benefit are those with 6 MWD <1000 ft (∼300 m) or FEV1 <20% of predicted, compared with pulmonary rehabilitation and medical management.

Clinical Impact of Multidisciplinary Outpatient Care on Outcomes of Patients with COPD

Purpose

Heterogeneous nature of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) must be comprehensively addressed. It is unclear if integrative multidisciplinary disease management (IMDM) can optimize clinical outcomes of patients with COPD.

Methods

A single-center, retrospective cohort observational study with a historical intervention was conducted in a clinic specialized for COPD care. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COPD were administered IMDM with measurement of BODE score on initial and follow-up visits. Primary outcomes were dynamic changes in BODE quartiles after receiving IMDM.

Results

Of 124 patients, 21% were misdiagnosed with COPD. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COPD were 50% female, median age 64 years (IQR 57-70), 43% actively smoking and initial visit median BODE quartile 2 (IQR 1-3). Three subgroups were identified based on the changes in BODE quartiles: worsened (21%), unchanged (55%) and improved (24%). At baseline, mMRC (median [IQR]) was higher in improved subgroup vs worsened and unchanged subgroup (3 [3, 4] vs 2 [1, 2] vs 2 [1, 3], p value 0.002) respectively. Drop in all components of BODE score was noted in worsened group, but significant improvement in mMRC with preservation of spirometry values was noted in the improved group. The incidence of smoking cigarettes changed from 39% to 26% during follow-up.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates that IMDM can be potentially effective in a subgroup of COPD patients. In others precipitous drop in lung function, activity tolerance, and subjective symptoms seems inevitable with worsening BODE quartiles.

Prognostic value of simple measures of physical function and muscle strength in COPD: A systematic review

PURPOSE

There has been an increased interest in simple measures of physical function and muscle strength that can be used in all clinical settings to assess individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and predict their prognosis. The main objective was to examine the prognostic value of simple measures of physical function and muscle strength in relation to exacerbation, hospitalization and mortality in individuals with COPD.

METHODS

Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane and Web of Science were searched. We included prospective observational studies that examined the prognostic value of simple performed-based tests or self-reported measures of physical function or muscle strength in relation to exacerbation, hospitalization and mortality in individuals with COPD.

RESULTS

Seven articles met the inclusion criteria. The most commonly used tests were the handgrip strength (HGS) (n = 4) and 1-min sit-to-stand (STS) (n = 2). There were considerable variations in terms of characteristics of patients included, setting of recruitment, type of tests used, duration of follow-up and outcome measures of interest. The majority of the studies were classified as having "fair" or "poor" methodological quality.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a limited number of studies examining the prognostic value of simple measures of physical function and muscle strength in relation to exacerbations, hospitalizations and mortality in individuals with COPD. To date, the HGS and 1-min STS tests are the most studied tests and seem to be suitable for prognosis purposes in individuals with COPD. However, more studies with better methodological quality are needed to confirm these findings.

Reversal of Upward Trends in Mortality During the Great Recession by Employment Status at Baseline in a National Longitudinal Study

Because of the healthy worker effect, mortality rates increased in individuals who were employed and those who were unemployed, and decreased in those economically inactive at baseline in reported studies. To determine if such trends continue during economic recessions, we analyzed mortality rates in Spain before and during the Great Recession in these subgroups. We included 21,933,351 individuals who were employed, unemployed, or inactive in November 2001 and aged 30-64 years in each calendar-year of follow-up (2002-2011). Annual age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated in each group. The annual percentage change in mortality rates adjusted for age and educational level in employed and unemployed persons were also calculated for 2002-2007 and 2008-2011. In employed and unemployed men, mortality rates increased until 2007 and then declined, whereas in employed and unemployed women, mortality rates increased and then stabilized during 2008-2011. The mortality rate among inactive men and women decreased throughout the follow-up. In the employed and the unemployed, the annual percentage change was reversed during 2008-2011 compared with 2002-2007 (-1.2 vs. 3.2 in employed men; -0.3 vs. 4.1 in employed women; -0.8 vs. 2.9 in unemployed men; and -0.6 vs. 1.3 in unemployed women). The upward trends in mortality rates among individuals who were employed or unemployed in 2001 were reversed during the Great Recession (2008-2011).

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To map and assess prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed until November 2018 and hand searched references from eligible articles.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model in COPD patients and focusing on any potential clinical outcome.

RESULTS

The systematic search yielded 228 eligible articles, describing the development of 408 prognostic models, the external validation of 38 models, and the validation of 20 prognostic models derived for diseases other than COPD. The 408 prognostic models were developed in three clinical settings: outpatients (n=239; 59%), patients admitted to hospital (n=155; 38%), and patients attending the emergency department (n=14; 3%). Among the 408 prognostic models, the most prevalent endpoints were mortality (n=209; 51%), risk for acute exacerbation of COPD (n=42; 10%), and risk for readmission after the index hospital admission (n=36; 9%). Overall, the most commonly used predictors were age (n=166; 41%), forced expiratory volume in one second (n=85; 21%), sex (n=74; 18%), body mass index (n=66; 16%), and smoking (n=65; 16%). Of the 408 prognostic models, 100 (25%) were internally validated and 91 (23%) examined the calibration of the developed model. For 286 (70%) models a model presentation was not available, and only 56 (14%) models were presented through the full equation. Model discrimination using the C statistic was available for 311 (76%) models. 38 models were externally validated, but in only 12 of these was the validation performed by a fully independent team. Only seven prognostic models with an overall low risk of bias according to PROBAST were identified. These models were ADO, B-AE-D, B-AE-D-C, extended ADO, updated ADO, updated BODE, and a model developed by Bertens et al. A meta-analysis of C statistics was performed for 12 prognostic models, and the summary estimates ranged from 0.611 to 0.769.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constitutes a detailed mapping and assessment of the prognostic models for outcome prediction in COPD patients. The findings indicate several methodological pitfalls in their development and a low rate of external validation. Future research should focus on the improvement of existing models through update and external validation, as well as the assessment of the safety, clinical effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of the application of these prognostic models in clinical practice through impact studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017069247.

Trends in disease mortality before and during the Great Recession in individuals employed in Spain in 2001

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on economic recessions and mortality due to cancer and other chronic diseases have yielded inconsistent findings. We investigated the trend in all-disease mortality and mortality due to several specific diseases before and during the Great Recession of 2008 in individuals who were employed in 2001, at the beginning of follow-up.

METHODS

We follow in a nationwide longitudinal study over 15 million subjects who had a job in Spain in 2001. The analysed outcomes were mortality at ages 25-64 years due to all diseases, cancer and other chronic diseases. We calculated annual mortality rates from 2003 to 2011, and the annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates during 2003-07 and 2008-11, as well as the effect size, measured by the APC difference between the two periods.

RESULTS

All-disease mortality increased from 2003 to 2007 in both men and women; then, between 2008 and 2011, all-disease mortality decreased in men and reached a plateau in women. In men, the APC in the all-disease mortality rate was 1.6 in 2003-07 and -1.4 in 2008-11 [effect size -3.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.7 to -2.2]; in women it was 2.5 and -0.3 (effect size -2.8, 95% CI -4.2 to -1.3), respectively. Cancer mortality and mortality due to other chronic diseases revealed similar trends.

CONCLUSIONS

In the group of individuals with a job in 2001 the Great Recession reversed or stabilized the upward trend in all-disease mortality.

Clinical Profiles of Selected Biomarkers Identifying Infection and Cancer Patients: A Gorzów Hospital Example

Introduction

Many pathobiological processes that manifest in a patient's organs could be associated with biomarker levels that are detectable in different human systems. However, biomarkers that promote early disease diagnosis should not be tested only in personalized medicine but also in large-scale diagnostic evaluations of patients, such as for medical management.

Objective

We aimed to create an easy algorithmic risk assessment tool that is based on obtainable "everyday" biomarkers, identifying infection and cancer patients.

Patients

We obtained the study data from the electronic medical records of 517 patients (186 infection and 331 cancer episodes) hospitalized at Gorzów Hospital, Poland, over a one and a half-year period from the 1^st of January 2017 to the 30^th of June 2018.

Methods and Results

A set of consecutive statistical methods (cluster analysis, ANOVA, and ROC analysis) was used to predict infection and cancer. For in-hospital diagnosis, our approach showed independent clusters of patients by age, sex, MPV, and disease fractions. From the set of available "everyday" biomarkers, we established the most likely bioindicators for infection and cancer together with their classification cutoffs.

Conclusions

Despite infection and cancer being very different diseases in their clinical characteristics, it seems possible to discriminate them using "everyday" biomarkers and popular statistical methods. The estimated cutoffs for the specified biomarkers can be used to allocate patients to appropriate risk groups for stratification purposes (medical management or epidemiological administration).

Indications for lung transplant referral and listing

Lung transplantation is a valuable therapeutic option for many patients with severe lung disease who have exhausted other medical or surgical therapies. However, since lungs are not a manufacturable organ like artificial heart valves or left ventricular assist devices, and since they are a limited resource compared to number of patients requiring the organs, the Department of Health and Human Services set the Final Rule of organ allocation in 1998. This led to development and implementation of Lung Allocation Score (LAS) in 2005. The score broadly divides lung diseases into 4 diagnostic criteria with a coefficient factor given to each category. The score is based on the prognostic factors of each patient to determine the risk of mortality without a transplant combined with the probability of patient survival post-transplant. Most of the guidelines for "Indications for referral and listing in lung transplant" is based on consensus opinion as there is limited amount of robust data and trials about this topic. The International Society for Heart and Lung Transplant (ISHLT) has published three editions for candidate selection and listing. In this article, we have attempted to highlight the guidelines and incorporated other disease specific prognostic factors that are not captured in the LAS. Ultimately, there are other factors like geographic location, height, blood group, preformed antibodies, transplant center experience, past wait times and transplant rate, availability of organs, etc., which also play a role especially when considering listing a patient for lung transplant. We also highlighted a representative disease in each category and most criteria for that disease will apply to other diseases in that category. Finally, this article does not delve into the history and reasoning behind each guideline but is meant to provide a general overview of indications and contraindications applicable in the field of adult lung transplantation.

The effect of isolated nocturnal oxygen desaturations on serum hs-CRP and IL-6 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

INTRODUCTION

A majority of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) die of cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet the mechanisms responsible for this association are not fully understood. It remains unknown if isolated nocturnal oxygen desaturation (iNOD) could be one of the potential pathways by which the 'inflammatory COPD' phenotype leads to CVD.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate if COPD patients who meet the Medicare guidelines for nocturnal oxygen therapy (iNOT+) had higher serum hs-CRP and IL-6 than those who did not meet the guidelines for iNOT (iNOT-).

METHODS

Patients with moderate to severe COPD (ie FEV1 < 80% and FEV1/FVC < 70), who were not on oxygen, underwent nocturnal oximetry on room air. Serum IL-6 and hs-CRP were collected the morning after the nocturnal oximetry testing.

RESULTS

A total of 28 patients were included in the study, 8 of whom had more than 5 minutes and 5% of their sleep time spent at oxygen saturation less than 88% and constituted the iNOT+ group. Only serum hs-CRP was significantly higher in iNOT+ than iNOT- (P = 0.050). There was no difference in the rate of COPD exacerbations at one and three months, or five-year survival between the groups (P > 0.3).

CONCLUSION

COPD patients who have more than 5 minutes and 5% of their sleep time spent at oxygen saturation less than 88% have increased hs-CRP, which is associated with increased risk of future CVD.

Mortality in Spain in the Context of the Economic Crisis and Austerity Policies

Objectives. To analyze the mortality trend in Spain before, during, and after the economic crisis and austerity policies. Methods. We calculated age-standardized annual mortality rates in 2001 through 2016 and estimated linear trends in mortality rates during 4 periods (2001-2007, 2008-2010, 2011-2013, and 2014-2016) using the annual percentage change (APC). Results. All-cause mortality rate decreased during the period 2001 to 2016, although we found increases over the previous year. After adjusting for increased influenza activity (P = .743) and heat waves (P = .473), we found the greatest declines during the economic crisis (2008-2010) and the smallest in the period 2014 to 2016, in which the APC in mortality rates was -2.9 and -0.6, respectively. The APC before the crisis (2001-2007) and during austerity (2011-2013) was -2.0 and -2.2, respectively. We observed similar results in mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory, and digestive diseases and motor vehicle accidents. Mortality from cancer showed the smallest decline during the crisis and the austerity period, whereas suicide increased in the period 2011 to 2013. Conclusions. Lifestyle changes could explain the decline in mortality during the economic crisis. Increased influenza activity and the 2015 heat wave may prevent identifying a possible delayed effect of austerity policies in the slowing down of mortality decline in the period 2014 to 2016.

Mortality in working-age population during the Great Recession and austerity in Spain

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the mortality trend in Spain before, during and after the economic crisis and austerity policies in the working-age population.

METHODS

From 2005 to 2016 we calculated the annual all-cause mortality rate and the annual mortality rate from the main causes of death in the population aged 15 to 64. We also estimated the linear trends in mortality rates during four time intervals-2005-2007 (before crisis), 2008-2010 (first part of the crisis), 2011-2013 (second part of the crisis and implementation of austerity policies) and 2014-2016 (after the crisis)- by the annual percentage change (APC).

RESULTS

The all-cause mortality rate in men and women showed the greatest decline in 2008-2010 and the smallest decline in 2014-2016. The decline in 2011-2013 was higher than in 2014-2016. The APCs in 2005-2007, 2008-2010, 2011-2013 and 2014-2016 were -2.8, -4.1, -3.0 and -1.5 in men and -1.0. -2.1, -1.1 and -0.6 in women, respectively, although the APC in 2014-2016 in women was not significant. In 2014-2016, cancer mortality showed the largest decrease, mortality from cardiovascular diseases (men), respiratory diseases and traffic accidents reversed and showed an upward trend, and the downward trend in mortality from infectious diseases and digestive diseases was equal to or greater than that observed before the crisis.

CONCLUSION

The decline in all-cause mortality in the working-age population during the economic crisis and the introduction of austerity measures was greater than that observed before and after the economic crisis. The slowing of the decline after the crisis was due to the reversal of the trend in mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.

It's more than low BMI: prevalence of cachexia and associated mortality in COPD

BACKGROUND

Cachexia is associated with increased mortality risk among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. However, low body mass index (BMI) as opposed to cachexia is often used, particularly when calculating the BODE (BMI, Obstruction, Dyspnea and Exercise) index. For this reason, we examined mortality using a consensus definition and a weight-loss definition of cachexia among COPD cases and compared two new COPD severity indices with BODE.

METHODS

In the current report, the consensus definition for cachexia incorporated weight-loss > 5% in 12-months or low BMI in addition to 3/5 of decreased muscle strength, fatigue, anorexia, low FFMI and inflammation. The weight-loss definition incorporated weight-loss > 5% or weight-loss > 2% (if low BMI) in 12-months. The low BMI component in BODE was replaced with the consensus definition to create the CODE (Consensus cachexia, Obstruction, Dyspnea and Exercise) index and the weight-loss definition to create the WODE (Weight loss, Obstruction, Dyspnea and Exercise) index. Mortality was assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox Regression. Performance of models was compared using C-statistics.

RESULTS

Among 1483 COPD cases, the prevalences of cachexia by the consensus and weight-loss definitions were 4.7 and 10.4%, respectively. Cachectic patients had a greater than three-fold increased mortality by either the consensus or the weight-loss definition of cachexia independent of BMI and lung function. The CODE index predicted mortality slightly more accurately than the BODE and WODE indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Cachexia is associated with increased mortality among COPD patients. Monitoring cachexia using weight-loss criteria is relatively simple and predictive of mortality among COPD cases who may be missed if only low BMI is used.