Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change

Unveiling the overlooked: Current and future distribution dynamics of kissing bugs and palm species linked to oral Chagas disease transmission

Chagas disease, a neglected global health concern primarily transmitted through the bite and feces of kissing bugs, has garnered increasing attention due to recent outbreaks in northern Brazil, highlighting the role of oral transmission facilitated by the kissing bugs species Rhodnius robustus and Rhodnius pictipes. These vectors are associated with palm trees with large crowns, such as the maripa palm (Attalea maripa) and moriche palm (Mauritia flexuosa). In this study, we employ maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological niche models to analyze the spatial distribution of these vectors and palm species, predicting current and future climate suitability. Our models indicate broader potential habitats than documented occurrences, with high suitability in northern South America, southern Central America, central Africa, and southeast Asia. Projections suggest increased climate suitability by 2040, followed by a reduction by 2080. This study identifies present and future areas suitable for kissing bugs and palm tree species due to climate change, aiding in the design of prevention and management strategies.

Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China

Forest foundation species, vital for shaping community structure and dynamics through non-trophic level interactions, are key to forest succession and sustainability. Despite their ecological importance, the habitat ranges of these species in China and their responses to future climate change remain unclear. Our study employed the optimal MaxEnt model to assess the range shifts and their essential drivers of four typical forest foundation species from three climatic zones in China under climate scenarios, including Acer tegmentosum, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (temperate zone), Quercus glandulifera (subtropical zone), and Ficus hispida (tropical zone). The optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC values > 0.90) for the four foundation species, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, we observed that A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum are predominantly inhabited temperate forest areas in northeastern China, Q. glandulifera is primarily concentrated in subtropical forests in southeastern China, and F. hispida is mainly distributed across the tropical forests in southern China. Climate factors, particularly temperature, emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the potential range of forest foundation species. Moreover, precipitation strongly influenced the potential range of A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum, while elevation exhibited a greater impact on the range of Q. glandulifera and F. hispida. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum tend to expand southward, F. hispida tends to expand northward, while Q. glandulifera exhibited a tendency to contract towards the center. This study advances our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest foundation species in China under climate change, providing critical insights for conservation efforts and sustainable forest management practices.

Genetic diversity, population structure and ecological niche modeling of Thyrinteina arnobia (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), a native Eucalyptus pest in Brazil

Thyrinteina arnobia (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is a native American species. Despite its historical importance as an insect pest in Eucalyptus plantations, more information is needed regarding the population diversity, demography, and climatic variables associated with its distribution in different regions of Brazil. We used a phylogeographic approach to infer the genetic diversity, genetic structure, and demographic parameters of T. arnobia. We also conducted an ecological niche modeling (ENM) to predict suitable areas for T. arnobia occurrence in Brazil and other countries worldwide. Although T. arnobia populations have low genetic diversity in Brazil, we identified mitochondrial haplogroups predominating in different Brazilian regions and high ФST and ФCT values in AMOVA, suggesting a low frequency of insect movement among these regions. These results indicate that outbreaks of T. arnobia in Eucalyptus areas in different regions of Brazil are associated with local or regional populations, with no significant contribution from long-distance dispersal from different regions or biomes, suggesting that pest management strategies would be implemented on a regional scale. In Brazil, the demographic and spatial expansion signals of T. arnobia seem to be associated with the history of geographical expansion of Eucalyptus plantations, a new sustainable host for this species. ENM indicated that isothermality and annual rainfall are critical climatic factors for the occurrence of T. arnobia in tropical and subtropical areas in the Americas. ENM also suggested that T. arnobia is a potential pest in Eucalyptus areas in all Brazilian territory and in regions from Africa, Asia, and Oceania.

Potential impacts of climate change on cephalopods in a highly productive region (Northwest Pacific): Habitat suitability and management

Cephalopods occupy a mid-trophic level in marine ecosystems and are vital both ecologically and as fishery resources. However, under the pressure of climate change and fishing, the sustainability of cephalopod resources requires reasonable management. This study aims to study climate change and fishing impacts on the common economic cephalopod species habitats using species distribution models. We take the northwest Pacific Ocean region as an example, which stands out as a significant region for cephalopod production around the world. Results found that the habitats of cephalopods are moving to higher latitudes or deeper waters (Bohai Sea, mid-bottom Yellow Sea, and the Okinawa Trough waters) under climate change. Additionally, these regions are currently under lower fishing pressure, which suggests that species migration might mitigate the effects of warming and fishing. This study provides the large-scale assessment of the distribution range of cephalopods affected by climate change coping with fishing pressure in the northwest Pacific Ocean. By identifying climate refuges and key fishing grounds, we underscore the importance of this information for managing cephalopod resources in the context of climate adaptation and sustainable fishing practices.

Detecting Spatial Patterns of Peatland Greenhouse Gas Sinks and Sources with Geospatial Environmental and Remote Sensing Data

Peatlands play a key role in the circulation of the main greenhouse gases (GHG) - methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Therefore, detecting the spatial pattern of GHG sinks and sources in peatlands is pivotal for guiding effective climate change mitigation in the land use sector. While geospatial environmental data, which provide detailed spatial information on ecosystems and land use, offer valuable insights into GHG sinks and sources, the potential of directly using remote sensing data from satellites remains largely unexplored. We predicted the spatial distribution of three major GHGs (CH4, CO2, and N2O) sinks and sources across Finland. Utilizing 143 field measurements, we compared the predictive capacity of three different data sets with MaxEnt machine-learning modeling: (1) geospatial environmental data including climate, topography and habitat variables, (2) remote sensing data (Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2), and (3) a combination of both. The combined dataset yielded the highest accuracy with an average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.845 and AUC stability of 0.928. A slightly lower accuracy was achieved using only geospatial environmental data (test AUC 0.810, stability AUC 0.924). In contrast, using only remote sensing data resulted in reduced predictive accuracy (test AUC 0.763, stability AUC 0.927). Our results suggest that (1) reliable estimates of GHG sinks and sources cannot be produced with remote sensing data only and (2) integrating multiple data sources is recommended to achieve accurate and realistic predictions of GHG spatial patterns.

Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Amphibian populations are declining globally due to climate change. However, the impacts on the geographic distribution of amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a global biodiversity hotspot with 112 species of amphibians that is sensitive to global climate change, remains unclear. In this study, MaxEnt and barycentre shift analyses were performed to reveal the impact of climate change on the potential future habitats of amphibians on the QTP using the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate pattern with three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). In contrast to the widespread decline in the amphibian population, the future scenarios projected an increase in most amphibian habitats on the QTP, accompanied by migration to higher elevations or latitudes under three climatic projections (SSP 1-2.6, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). Average annual precipitation was the most crucial environmental variable impacting the future distribution of amphibians. The findings indicate that amphibians would flourish under climate change on the QTP, which is of great significance for the protection of amphibians and biodiversity on the QTP.

Effect of climate change on current and future potential distribution of Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in Türkiye

The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.

Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation

Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.

Predicting the potential distribution change of the endangered Francois' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) across its entire range in China under climate change

The Francois' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) is a rare primate species indicated as endangered and distributed in karst areas in northern Vietnam and southwestern China. However, research limited to specific nature reserves or sites has hampered holistic conservation management. A comprehensive map of the potential distribution for the Francois' langur is essential to advance conservation efforts and ensure coordinated management across regions. Here, we used 82 occurrence records of Francois' langur surveyed in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Chongqing from 2017 to 2020, along with 12 environmental variables, to build the potential habitat model under current and future climate (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090s) using maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). Our results indicated that (1) precipitation- and temperature-associated bioclimatic variables contributed the most to the distribution of Francois' langur. Vegetation, water sources, and anthropogenic variables also affected its distribution; (2) a total of 144,207.44 km2 of potential suitable habitat across the entire range in China was estimated by the current model. Moderate- and high-suitability habitats accounted for only 23.76% (34,265.96 km2) of the predicted suitable habitat and were mainly distributed in southwest Guangxi, east of Chongqing, and the border between Guizhou and Chongqing; (3) the suitable habitats of Francois' langur will contract considerably under future climate change, and the habitat centroid will move in the southeast direction with a shifting distance of approximately 2.84 km/year from current to 2100. The habitat prediction of Francois' langur and the main drivers proposed in this study could provide essential insights for the future conservation of this endangered species. The existing distribution areas should be monitored and protected, but conservation beyond existing habitats should also be a focus of effort, especially in future expansion areas. This would ensure effective and timely protection under climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitats and Ecological Niche for Trollius Wildflowers in Ili River Valley, Tacheng, Altay Prefecture

Xinjiang in China is distinguished by its distinctive regional landscape and high ecological sensitivity. Trollius wildflowers represent a unique and iconic element of the mountain flower landscape in Xinjiang. However, their populations are predominantly distributed in mountainous areas, making them susceptible to climate change. Despite this, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats and ecological niche differentiation for Trollius wildflowers have rarely been quantified. Consequently, simulations were conducted using the R-optimized MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitat distribution of Trollius wildflowers. This was based on the occurrence data and environmental variables for the four species of Trollius (T. altaicus, T. asiaticus, T. dschungaricus, and T. lilacinus) that exist in the study area. The simulation was conducted over a period of time, beginning with the past glacial period and extending to the present, and then to the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under multiple scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The simulation of suitable habitats enabled the measurement of the ecological niche breadth and differentiation. The results demonstrate that the model predictions are precisely accurate, with AUC values exceeding 0.9. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), isothermality (Bio3), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) are the dominant climate variables, in addition to vegetation, elevation, and soil factors. The proportion of suitable habitats for Trollius wildflowers varies considerably over time, from 0.14% to 70.97%. The majority of habitat loss or gain occurs at the edges of mountains, while stable habitats are concentrated in the core of the mountains. The gravity center of suitable habitats also shifts with spatial transfer, with the shifts mainly occurring in a northeasterly-southwesterly direction. The SSP1-2.6 scenario results in the sustained maintenance of habitats, whereas the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios present challenges to the conservation of habitats. The threshold of ecological niche breadth for Trollius wildflowers is subject to fluctuations, while the ecological niche differentiation also varies. The study aims to examine the evolution of the habitat and ecological niche of Trollius wildflowers in Xinjiang under climate change. The findings will provide theoretical support for delineating the conservation area, clarify the scope of mountain flower tourism development and protection of mountain flower resources, and promote the sustainable development of ecotourism and effective utilization of territorial space in Xinjiang.

The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction

Our study utilized 374 geographical distribution records of H. mutabilis and 19 bioclimatic factors, employing the MaxEnt model and the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). The key environmental variables influencing the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis were analyzed through the comprehensive contribution rate, permutation importance, and Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on this analysis, the contemporary and future suitable distribution areas and their extents were predicted. The results indicate that the key limiting factor affecting the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis is the precipitation of the driest month (bio14), with secondary factors being annual precipitation (bio12), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual temperature range (bio7). Under contemporary climate conditions, the total suitable area for H. mutabilis is approximately 2,076,600 km2, primarily concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions of southeastern China. Under low-to-medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), the total suitable area of H. mutabilis shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing compared to the current scenario. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), it exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The spatial pattern changes indicate that the retention rate of suitable areas for H. mutabilis ranges from 95.28% to 99.28%, with the distribution centers primarily located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces, showing an overall migration trend towards the west and north. These findings suggest that H. mutabilis possesses a certain level of adaptability to climate change. However, it is crucial to consider regional drought and sudden drought events in practical cultivation and introduction processes. The results of our study provide a scientific basis for the rational cultivation management, conservation, and utilization of germplasm resources of H. mutabilis.

Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change

Introduction

Arid and semi-arid regions are climate-sensitive areas, which account for about 40% of the world's land surface area. Future environment change will impact the environment of these area, resulting in a sharp expansion of arid and semi-arid regions. Cotoneaster multiflorus is a multi-functional tree species with extreme cold, drought and barren resistance, as well as ornamental and medicinal functions. It was found to be one of the most important tree species for ecological restoration in arid and semi-arid areas. However, bioclimatic factors play an important role in the growth, development and distribution of plants. Therefore, exploring the response pattern and ecological adaptability of C. multiflorus to future climate change is important for the long-term ecological restoration of C. multiflorus in arid and semi-arid areas.

Methods

In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of C. multiflorus in China under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt 2.0 model, and discussed its adaptability and the major factors affecting its geographical distribution.

Results

The major factors that explained the geographical distribution of C. multiflorus were Annual precipitation (Bio12), Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). However, C. multiflorus could thrive in environments where Annual precipitation (Bio12) >150 mm, Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) > -42.5°C, and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) > -20°C, showcasing its characteristics of cold and drought tolerance. Under different future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for C. multiflorus ranged from 411.199×104 km² to 470.191×104 km², which was 0.8~6.14 percentage points higher than the current total suitable area. Additionally, it would further shift towards higher latitude.

Discussion

The MaxEnt 2.0 model predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. multiflorus in the context of future climate change, and identified its ecological adaptability and the main climatic factors affecting its distribution. This study provides an important theoretical basis for natural vegetation restoration in arid and semi-arid areas.

Insight into the phylogeny and responses of species from the genus Sergia (Campanulaceae) to the climate changes predicted for the Mountains of Central Asia (a world biodiversity hotspot)

BACKGROUND

Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island-like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs).

RESULTS

The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot.

Modeling future changes in potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau by incorporating snow depth and snow phenology

Although snow cover is a major factor affecting vegetation in alpine regions, it is rarely introduced into ecological niche models in alpine regions. Snow phenology over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was estimated using a daily passive microwave snow depth dataset, and future datasets of snow depth and snow phenology were projected based on their sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, the potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the TP were predicted under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) by using a model with incorporated snow variables, and the driving factors of habitat change were analyzed. The results showed that the inclusion of snow variables improved the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model, particularly in alpine meadow habitats. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitats of steppes, meadows, shrubs, deserts, and coniferous forests on the TP will migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes, in which the potential habitats of alpine desert will recede (replaced by alpine steppe), and the potential habitats of other four vegetation types will expand. The random forest importance analysis showed that the recession of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in average annual temperature, and the expansion of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in precipitation. With the gradual increase in temperature and precipitation in the future, the snow depth and snow cover duration days will decrease, which may further lead to the transition of vegetation types from cold-adapted to warm-adapted on the TP. Our study highlights both that the prediction accuracy of alpine vegetation was improved by incorporating snow variables into the species distribution model, and that a changing climate will likely have a powerful influence on the distribution of alpine vegetation across the TP.

Distribution Pattern of Suitable Areas and Corridor Identification of Endangered Ephedra Species in China

The suitable habitat of endangered Ephedra species has been severely threatened and affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities; however, their migration trends and restoration strategies are still relatively understudied. In this study, we utilized the MaxEnt model to simulate the suitable habitats of five endangered Ephedra species in China under current and future climate scenarios. Additionally, we identified significant ecological corridors by incorporating the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable area of Ephedra equisetina Bunge, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey, Ephedra sinica Stapf, and Ephedra monosperma Gmel ex Mey comprised 16% of the area in China, while Ephedra rhytidosperma Pachom comprised only 0.05%. The distribution patterns of these five Ephedra species were primarily influenced by altitude, salinity, temperature, and precipitation. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of E. equisetina, E. intermedia, and E. sinica are projected to expand, while that of E. monosperma is expected to contract. Notably, E. rhytidosperma will lose its suitable area in the future. Our identified ecological corridors showed that the first-level corridors encompassed a wider geographical expanse, incorporating E. equisetina, E. intermedia, E. sinica, and E. monosperma, while that of E. rhytidosperma exhibited a shorter length and covered fewer geographical areas. Overall, our study provides novel insights into identifying priority protected areas and protection strategies targeting endangered Ephedra species.

Climatic variables are more effective on the spatial distribution of oak forests than land use change across their historical range

The current research is conducted to model the effect of climate change and land use change (LUC) on the geographical distribution of Quercus brantii Lindl. (QB) forests across their historical range. Forecasting was done based on six general circulation models under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 future climate change scenarios for the future years 2050 and 2070. In order to model the species distribution, different modeling methods were used. The results indicated that, in general, climatic variables had a higher influence on the distribution of QB than land use-related attributes. The mean diurnal range (bio2), the precipitation seasonality (bio15), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) were the main predictors in the distribution of QB forests, while land use variables were less important in oak species distribution. The GBM, MaxEnt, and RF had higher accuracy and performance in modeling species distribution. The outputs also showed that in the current climate circumstances, 97,608.81 km2 of the studied area has high desirability for the presence of QB, and by 2070, under the pessimistic scenario, 96.29% of these habitats will be lost under the concomitant effect of LUC and climate change. By using the results of this research, it is possible to predict and identify the effective factors in changing the habitat of this oak species with more certainty. Based on the insights obtained from the results of such studies, the protection and restoration planning of the habitat of this key species, which supports diverse species, will be provided more efficiently.

Spatial distribution dynamics for Epimedium brevicornum Maxim. from 1970 to 2020

At different time scales, a species will experience diverse distribution changes. For Epimedium brevicornum Maxim, the phenomenon is obvious, but the understanding of the spatial dynamics of E. brevicornum under distinct time scales is poor. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution for E. brevicornum for five time scales, 1970-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2019, with different occurrence data, and the Kuenm package was used to optimize the parameter combination. Then, SDM tools and a Venn diagram were utilized to simulate the changes in highly suitable areas and spatial dynamics, respectively. Comprehensive results show that temperature seasonality (BIO4, 37.54%) has the greatest effect on the distribution of E. brevicornum, followed by minimum temperature (TMIN, 21.42%). The areas of distribution for E. brevicornum are 35.06 × 105 km2, 25.7 × 105 km2, 67.64 × 105 km2, 27.29 × 105 km2, and 9.87× 105 km2, which are mainly concentrated in Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan, respectively. In addition, the largest regions for expansion, stability, and contraction under various time scales are 5.6 × 105 km2, 3.54 × 105 km2, and 3.47 × 105 km2, respectively. These changes indicate that approximately 7.96% of the regions are highly stable, and three critical counties, Wanyuan, Chenggu, and Hechuan, and Xixiang, have become significant areas for migration. Overall, our results indicate that there are different spatial distribution patterns and dynamics for E. brevicornum for different time scales. Given these results, this study also proposes comprehensive strategies for the conservation and management of E. brevicornum, which will further improve the current resource utilization status.

Potential Global Distribution of Paracoccus marginatus, under Climate Change Conditions, Using MaxEnt

The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is an invasive pest species found all over the world. It is native to Mexico and Central America, but is now present in more than 50 countries and regions, seriously threatening the economic viability of the agricultural and forestry industry. In the current study, the global potential distribution of P. marginatus was predicted under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. The results of the model assessment indicated that the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic ( ROC-AUC) was 0.949, while the TSS value was 0.820. The results also showed that the three variables with the greatest impact on the model were min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of wettest month (bio13), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), with corresponding contributions of 46.8%, 31.1%, and 13.1%, respectively. The results indicated that the highly suitable areas were mainly located in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, southern North America, Central America, Central Africa, Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia. Under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of suitability will change very little. Moreover, the results showed that the area of suitable areas in 2070s increased under all four climate scenarios compared to the current climate. In contrast, the area of suitable habitat increases from the current to the 2050s under the SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The current study could provide a reference framework for the future control and management of papaya mealybug and other invasive species.

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Dickeya zeae causal agent of stalk rot of maize in Sialkot district Pakistan

Maize (Zea mays) is an influential crop in its production across the world. However, the invasion of many phytopathogens greatly affects the maize crop yield at various hotspot areas. Of many diseases, bacterial stalk rot of maize caused by Dickeya zeae results in severe yield reduction, thus the need for efficient management is important. Further, to produce epidemiological information for control of disease outbreaks in the hot spot regions of Sialkot District, Punjab Pakistan, extensive field surveys during 2021 showed that out of 266 visited areas, the highest disease incidence ranging from 66.5 to 78.5% while the lowest incidence was ranging from 9 to 20%. The Maxent modeling revealed that among 19 environmental variables, four variables including temperature seasonality (bio-4), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio-8), annual precipitation (bio-12), and precipitation of driest month (bio-14) were significantly contributing to disease distribution in current and coming years. The study outcomes revealed that disease spread will likely increase across four tehsils of Sialkot over the years 2050 and 2070. Our findings will be helpful to policymakers and researchers in devising effective disease management strategies against bacterial stalk rot of maize outbreaks in Sialkot, Pakistan.

Predicting potential distribution of the Rhinoncus sibiricus under climatic in China using MaxEnt

In recent years, buckwheat (Fagopyrum spp.) is being increasingly damaged by the Siberian tortoise beetle (Rhinoncus sibiricus Faust). Adults and nymphs feed on leaf tissues and caulicles, thus damaging its stems and leaves. In this study, we investigated the habits, distribution, and environmental impact of R. sibiricus using MaxEnt, an ecological niche model. Geographic information about the infestation site from previous field surveys and climatic data from 2013 to 2018 were organized and optimized using R. The impact factors were calculated using MaxEnt software. The results indicate that population fluctuations in R. sibiricus are related to changes in temperature, humidity, and their spatial distribution. Under current climatic conditions, R. sibiricus is mainly distributed in northern China, with sporadic distribution in south-western China. The values for a survival probability threshold > 0.3 were: precipitation during the wettest month (bio13), 70.31-137.56 mm; mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), -15.00-0.85°C; mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), 11.88-23.16°C; precipitation during the coldest quarter (biol9), 0-24.39 mm. The main factors contributing > 70% to the models were precipitation during the wettest month and coldest quarter, and mean temperature during the warmest and coldest quarters. Under both future climate models, the center of the fitness zone moves northward. Our results will be useful in guiding administrative decisions and support farmers interested in establishing control and management strategies for R. sibiricus. This study could also serve as a reference for future research on other invasive pests.

Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

Introduction

Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary.

Methods

The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region.

Results

The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km2, accounting for 0.48% of China's land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km2), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km2) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km2) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km2) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km2), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km2), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km2) prefecture-level cities.

Discussion

In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.

The ecological suitability area of Cirsium lineare (Thunb.) Sch.-Bip. under future climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling

Many kinds of medicinal ingredients occur in Cirsium lineare that have good clinical efficacy, conferring on this species its high medicinal development value. However, with a rapidly changing global climate, it is increasingly imperative to study the factors affecting the habitat distribution and survival of species. We predicted the current and future distribution areas of suitable habitats for C. lineare, analyzed the importance of environmental variables in influencing habitat shifts, and described the alterations to suitable habitats of C. lineare in different periods (modern, 2050s, and 2070s) and scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results show that, under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. lineare is about 2,220,900 km2, of which the highly suitable portion amounts to ca. 292,600 km2. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and mean daily temperature range are the chief environmental variables affecting the distribution of habitat for C. lineare. In the same period, with rising greenhouse gas emission concentrations, the total suitable area will increase. In general, under future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. lineare will gradually migrate to the west and north, and its total suitable area will also expand. The results of this experiment can be used for the conservation and management of the wild resources of C. lineare. We can choose suitable growth areas to protect the medicinal resources of C. lineare through in situ conservation and artificial breeding.

Human activity and climate change accelerate the extinction risk to non-human primates in China

Human activity and climate change affect biodiversity and cause species range shifts, contractions, and expansions. Globally, human activities and climate change have emerged as persistent threats to biodiversity, leading to approximately 68% of the ~522 primate species being threatened with extinction. Here, we used habitat suitability models and integrated data on human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), road construction, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the location of protected areas (PAs), and climate change to predict potential changes in the distributional range and richness of 26 China's primate species. Our results indicate that both PAs and NDVI have a positive impact on primate distributions. With increasing anthropogenic pressure, species' ranges were restricted to areas of high vegetation cover and in PAs surrounded by buffer zones of 2.7-4.5 km and a core area of PAs at least 0.1-0.5 km from the closest edge of the PA. Areas with a GDP below the Chinese national average of 100,000 yuan were found to be ecologically vulnerable, and this had a negative impact on primate distributions. Changes in temperature and precipitation were also significant contributors to a reduction in the range of primate species. Under the expected influence of climate change over the next 30-50 years, we found that highly suitable habitat for primates will continue to decrease and species will be restricted to smaller and more peripheral parts of their current range. Areas of high primate diversity are expected to lose from 3 to 7 species. We recommend that immediate action be taken, including expanding China's National Park Program, the Ecological Conservation Redline Program, and the Natural Forest Protection Program, along with a stronger national policy promoting alternative/sustainable livelihoods for people in the local communities adjacent to primate ranges, to offset the detrimental effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change on primate survivorship.

MaxEnt model strategies to studying current and future potential land suitability dynamics of wheat, soybean and rice cultivation under climatic change scenarios in East Asia

Climate change and variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crops cultivation. Accurately predicting changes in the potential current and future land suitability distribution dynamics of wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max) and rice (Oryza sativa) crops due to climate change scenarios is critical to adapting and mitigating the impacts of bioclimatic changes, and plays a significant role in securing food security in East Asia region. This study compiled large datasets of wheat, soybean and rice occurrence locations from GBIF and 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database that affect crops growth. We recognized potential future suitable distribution regions for crops under the one socioeconomic pathway, (SSP585) for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, using the MaxEnt model. The accuracy of the MaxEnt was highly significant with mean AUC values ranging from 0.833 to 0.882 for all models evaluated. The jackknife test revealed that for wheat, Bio4 and Bio12 contributed 17.6% and 12.6%, for soybean Bio10 and Bio12 contributed 15.6% and 49.5%, while for rice Bio12 and Bio14 contributed 12.9% and 36.0% to the MaxEnt model. In addition, cultivation aptitude for wheat, soybean, and rice increased in southeast China, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, while decreasing in Mongolia and northwest China. Climate change is expected to increase the high land suitability for wheat, soybean, and rice in East Asia. Simulation results indicate an average decrease of unsuitable areas of -98.5%, -41.2% and -36.3% for wheat, soybean and rice from 2060 than that of current land suitability. In contrast, the high land suitable for wheat, soybean and rice cultivation is projected to increase by 75.1%, 68.5% and 81.9% from 2060 as compared with current. The findings of this study are of utmost importance in the East Asia region as they present an opportunity for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies required to sustain crops distribution under future climates. Although the risks of wheat, soybean and rice cultivation may be significantly higher in the future because of high temperatures, heat waves, and droughts caused by climate change.

From the classroom to the farm: a lesson plan that promotes smallholder farmers' education and training about plant pathology in the context of climate change

Climate change represents one of the biggest threats to agricultural productivity around the world. In the tropics, extreme climate and pest and disease outbreaks represent one of the biggest climate change threats to smallholder farmers. Understanding smallholder farmers' educational needs and increasing access to information and awareness of climate change through education and training are key first steps to enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers. In a primary effort to increase accessible training and education to these communities, we developed a plant pathology lesson plan. The lesson plan introduces basic concepts in plant pathology and disease management using diverse educational activities focused on experiential and collaborative learning. This lesson plan may have implications in enhancing farmers' adaptive capacity and increasing accessible education to underrepresented farming communities around the world.

Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis Decne in China

BACKGROUND

Rhamnus utilis Decne (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated for R. utilis using Maxent modeling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed.

RESULTS

January water vapor pressure, normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under the climate change scenario SSP 245, Maxent predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73 × 105 km2 in suitable habitat for R. utilis during 2041-2060 while an increase of ca. 0.65 × 105 km2 occurred during 2081-2100. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.

Modeling potential distribution and above-ground biomass of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) holds a substantial position as a tree species designated for biomass energy within European forests, covering a significant part of Türkiye's forests. We used the machine learning technique, namely, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), to estimate the suitable areas for Scots pine and to investigate its potential future distribution under various climate change scenarios in Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye. The distribution data of Scots pine was utilized, and a set of 20 variables was chosen from spectral, topographic, and bioclimatic datasets to train the MaxEnt model. A map depicting the potential distribution of Scots pine in the area was generated, and alterations in its spatial distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios were predicted. The results showed that the most effective factors for the distribution of Scots pine in the region were normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Red band of the imagery, and Bio19 variables, and the contribution percentages were 45.6%, 18.5%, and 18.1%, respectively. Current conditions have indicated that 81.11% of the region is not suitable for Scots pine. Highly suitable areas for Scots pine constituted 0.88% of the total area in the east and southeast parts of the region. Considering the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it has been determined that there may be a partial increase in highly suitable areas. The above-ground biomass (AGB) data generated based on potential distribution areas were predicted between 0.04 and 168.76 t ha-1, and the areas with dense biomass over 120 t ha-1 were identified in the west, north, and northeast parts of the region. While actual AGB of Scots pine was 6.92 MT, its potential AGB was estimated 125.93 MT in total area. The difference may well be attributed to the wide potential distribution of Scots pine stands in the area apart from the current forest lands. Nevertheless, this research contributes to the holistic management of forests and provides substantial values for formulating well-suited silvicultural interventions, developing sustainable forest management strategies, and furthering research aimed at estimating biomass reserves.

Can highway tunnel constructıon change the habitat selection of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758)?

One of the main things wildlife does for survival is movement. Wild animals need movement to meet their needs, such as reproduction, breeding, foraging, and dispersal. Although wildlife species use roads for various purposes, they also use them when moving from one habitat to another. In recent years, especially when it comes to habitat fragmentation brought about by urbanization, wild animals frequently use highways. Highways have a wide range of effects on factors such as biodiversity, wildlife, and ecology. Roads can cause habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, and habitat degradation; alter the composition of vegetation; act as barriers to the flow of genes and movement; increase human access to pristine areas; and even increase the risk of extinction for many threatened species. Species belonging to the family Cervidae also include the species most affected by road networks. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758) is the smallest of the 3 Cervid species living in Turkey. Roe deer are often injured or die in road accidents, and they are one of the most important species affected by the adverse effects of roads in Turkey. For this reason, it was investigated whether the road tunnel construction affected the distribution of roe deer in the region. In the study, the general distribution of roe deer in the Ilgaz Mountain, and the factors affecting their possible distribution were determined by ecological niche modeling. Data were taken between before (2012-2015) and after the highway tunnel built (2020-2022) in Ilgaz Mountain, which connects the Western Black Sea and Central Anatolia and is located in the middle of Kastamonu and Çankırı provinces. As a result of the modeling, it was found that before the construction of the tunnel, the most influential factor in the distribution of the deer was road density. After the tunnel construction, roads ceased to be the main factor affecting the distribution of the species. This study showed that roe deer are disturbed by the density of vehicles on the road passing through the middle of their habitat. With the decrease in the number of vehicles, they are more willing to cross the road and tend to use the areas close to the road as they are less disturbed.

Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change

The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021-2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species.

Assessing the suitability and dynamics of three medicinal Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios

Climate change exerts profound influences on the ecological environments on a global scale, leading to habitat destruction and altering distribution patterns for numerous plant species. Traditional Chinese medicinal plants, such as those belonging to the Sambucus genus, have been extensively utilized for several centuries to treat fractures, rheumatism, and inflammation. However, our understanding of their geographic distribution and climatic adaptation within China still needs to be improved. In this study, we screened the optimal predictive model (random forest model) to predict the potential suitable distribution of three Sambucus species (Sambucus adnata, Sambucus javanica, and Sambucus williamsii) across China under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, we identified key climate factors that influence their potential distributions. Our findings revealed that S. adnata and S. javanica are predominantly shaped by temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range, respectively, whereas S. williamsii is significantly affected by the precipitation of the wettest month. Currently, S. williamsii is primarily distributed in north and central south China (covering 9.57 × 105 km2), S. javanica is prevalent in the south and east regions (covering 6.41×105 km2), and S. adnata predominantly thrives in the southwest China (covering 1.99×105 km2). Under future climate change scenarios, it is anticipated that S. adnata may migrate to higher latitudes while S. javanica may shift to lower latitudes. However, potentially suitable areas for S. williamsii may contract under certain scenarios for the years 2050 and 2090, with an expansion trend under the SSP585 scenario for the year 2090. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic variables in influencing the potential geographic distribution of Sambucus species. These findings provide valuable theoretical insights for the preservation, cultivation, and utilization of Sambucus medicinal plant resources in the context of ongoing climate change.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Wild Radish in East Asia

Climate change can exert a considerable influence on the geographic distribution of many taxa, including coastal plants and populations of some plant species closely related to those used as agricultural crops. East Asian wild radish, Raphanus raphanistrum subsp. sativus, is an annual coastal plant that is a wild relative of the cultivated radish (R. sativus). It has served as source of genetic material that has been helpful to develop and improve the quality and yield of radish crops. To assess the impact of climate change on wild radish in East Asia, we analyzed its distribution at different periods using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results indicated that the precipitation of the driest month (bio14) and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the two most dominant environmental factors that affected the geographical distribution of wild radish in East Asia. The total potential area suitable for wild radish is 102.5574 × 104 km2, mainly located along the seacoasts of southern China, Korea, and the Japanese archipelago. Compared with its current distribution regions, the potentially suitable areas for wild radish in the 2070s will further increase and expand northwards in Japan, especially on the sand beach habitats of Hokkaido. This research reveals the spatiotemporal changes for the coastal plant wild radish under global warming and simultaneously provides a vital scientific basis for effective utilization and germplasm innovation for radish cultivars to achieve sustainable agriculture development.

Analysis of the distribution pattern of the ectomycorrhizal fungus Cenococcum geophilum under climate change using the optimized MaxEnt model

Cenococcum geophilum (C. geophilum) is a widely distributed ectomycorrhizal fungus that plays a crucial role in forest ecosystems worldwide. However, the specific ecological factors influencing its global distribution and how climate change will affect its range are still relatively unknown. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model optimized with the kuenm package to simulate changes in the distribution pattern of C. geophilum from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future based on 164 global distribution records and 17 environmental variables and investigated the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. We employed the optimal parameter combination of RM = 4 and FC = QPH, resulting in a highly accurate predictive model. Our study clearly shows that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation are the key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitats of C. geophilum. Currently, appropriate habitats of C. geophilum are mainly distributed in eastern Asia, west-central Europe, the western seaboard and eastern regions of North America, and southeastern Australia, covering a total area of approximately 36,578,300 km2 globally. During the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene, C. geophilum had a much smaller distribution area, being mainly concentrated in the Qinling-Huaihe Line region of China and eastern Peninsular Malaysia. As global warming continues, the future suitable habitat for C. geophilum is projected to shift northward, leading to an expected expansion of the suitable area from 9.21% to 21.02%. This study provides a theoretical foundation for global conservation efforts and biogeographic understanding of C. geophilum, offering new insights into its distribution patterns and evolutionary trends.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model

Cicadella viridis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is an omnivorous leafhopper that feeds on plant sap. It significantly reduces the yield of agricultural and forestry crops while feeding or ovipositing on the host plant. In recent years, the rapid expansion of C. viridis has posed a serious threat to agricultural and forestry crops. To study the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of the leafhopper, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software, combined with 253 geographic distribution records of the pest and 24 environmental variables, were used, for the first time, to predict the potential distribution of C. viridis in China under conditions of climatic change. The results showed that the currently suitable areas for C. viridis are 29.06-43° N, 65.25-85.15° E, and 93.45-128.85° E, with an estimated area of 11,231,423.79 km², i.e., 11.66% of China. The Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the Shandong Peninsula are the main suitable areas. The potential distribution of the leafhopper for the high and medium suitability areas decreased under each climate scenario (except RCP8.5 in the 2090s). Several key variables that have the most significant effect on the distribution of C. viridis were identified, including the mean annual temperature (Bio1), the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19). Our research provides important guidance for developing effective monitoring and pest control methods for C. viridis, given the predicted challenges of altered pest dynamics related to future climate change.

Selection of Flagship Species and Their Use as Umbrellas in Bird Conservation: A Case Study in Lishui, Zhejiang Province, China

The concept of flagship species is widely used in conservation biology. Flagship birds play a key role in raising conservation funds, increasing awareness of biodiversity conservation, and maintaining ecosystem services. This study selected flagship bird species in Lishui, Zhejiang Province, China, and assessed their conservation effectiveness and ability to serve as umbrella species. A regional bird survey program from 2019-2022 recorded 361 bird species in Lishui. This study constructed a framework of flagship species selection based on social, ecological, economic, and cultural criteria. The analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method (AHP-EM) was used to rank the score of 361 bird species, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the suitable distribution areas of these species. Finally, 10 species, which covered the distribution sites of all 361 bird species, were selected as the flagship species of Lishui. The distribution areas covered all the nature reserves and the priority areas of biodiversity of Lishui, in which these 10 species can also serve as umbrella species to protect local biodiversity. The methodology and ideas in this study could provide insights into the application of conservation concepts at the local level, as well as suggest possible recommendations for local governments to select flagship species for conservation.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

Seasonal differences in the spatial patterns of wildfire drivers and susceptibility in the southwest mountains of China

Wildfires directly affect global ecosystem stability and severely threaten human life. The mountainous areas of Southwest China experience frequent wildfires. Mapping the susceptibility patterns and analyzing the drivers of wildfires are crucial for effective wildfire management, especially considering that the inclusion of seasonal dimensions will produce more dynamic results. Using Yunnan Province of China as a case study area, a method was attempted to distinguish dependable wildfires by season, while possible wildfire drivers were obtained and refined within seasons. The patterns of wildfire susceptibility in different seasons were modeled based on the Maxent and random forest models. Then, the spatial relationships between wildfire and potential drivers were analyzed integrating with GeoDetector to evaluate the variable importance of drivers and the marginal effect of drivers. The results showed that the two models effectively depicted each season's wildfire susceptibility. The susceptible wildfire areas in spring and winter are located throughout Yunnan Province, with anthropogenic factors being the most significant drivers. During the summer and autumn, wildfire risk areas are relatively concentrated, showing a trend of dominant drought-driven and humid conditions. The differences in wildfire drivers across seasons reflect the lagged effect of climate factors on wildfires, leading to significant discrepancies in the marginal effects of how seasonal drivers affect wildfires. The findings improve our understanding of the effects of the interseasonal variability of environmental variables on wildfires and promote the development of specific seasonal wildfire management strategies.

Potential Geographic Range of the Endangered Reed Parrotbill Paradoxornis heudei under Climate Change

The phenomenon of global climate change can impact the geographic range and biodiversity, thereby heightening the vulnerability of rare species to extinction. The reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei David, 1872) is endemic to central and eastern China, it is mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the Northeast Plain. In this study, eight of ten algorithms of the species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. heudei under current and future climate scenarios and to analyze the possible related climate factors. After checking the collected data, 97 occurrence records of P. heudei were used. The relative contribution rate shows that among the selected climatic variables, temperature annual range (bio7), annual precipitation (bio12), and isothermality (bio3) were the principal climatic factors to limit the habitat suitability of P. heudei. The suitable habitat for P. heudei is primarily concentrated in the central–eastern and northeast plains of China, particularly in the eastern coastal region, spanning a mere area of 57,841 km2. The habitat suitability of P. heudei under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios was predicted to be different under future climatic conditions, but all of them had a larger range than the current one. The species distribution range could expand by more than 100% on average compared with the current range under the four scenarios in 2050, while it could contract by approximately 30% on average relative to the 2050 range in 2070 under different climate change scenarios. In the future, northeastern China may serve as a potential suitable habitat for P. heudei. The changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of P. heudei’s range are of utmost importance in identifying high-priority conservation regions and devising effective management strategies for its preservation.

The Distribution Pattern and Species Richness of Scorpionflies (Mecoptera: Panorpidae)

The uneven distribution of species diversity on earth, with mountainous regions housing half of the high species diversity areas, makes mountain ecosystems vital to biodiversity conservation. The Panorpidae are ecological indicators, ideal for studying the impact of climate change on potential insect distribution. This study examines the impact of environmental factors on the distribution of the Panorpidae and analyzes how their distribution has changed over three historical periods, the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Current. The MaxEnt model is used to predict the potential distribution area of Panorpidae based on global distribution data. The results show that precipitation and elevation are the primary factors affecting species richness, and the suitable areas for Panorpidae are distributed in southeastern North America, Europe, and southeastern Asia. Throughout the three historical periods, there was an initial increase followed by a decrease in the area of suitable habitats. During the LGM period, there was a maximum range of suitable habitats for cool-adapted insects, such as scorpionflies. Under the scenarios of global warming, the suitable habitats for Panorpidae would shrink, posing a challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. The study provides insights into the potential geographic range of Panorpidae and helps understand the impact of climate change on their distribution.

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models

Climate change increases the extinction risk of species, and studying the impact of climate change on endangered species is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. In this study, the endangered plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim (M. punicea) was selected as the research object. Four species distribution models (SDMs): the generalized linear model, the generalized boosted regression tree model, random forest and flexible discriminant analysis were applied to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climates scenarios. Among them, two emission scenarios of sharing socio-economic pathways (SSPs; i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two global circulation models (GCMs) were considered for future climate conditions. Our results showed that temperature seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the potential distribution of M. punicea. The prediction of the four SDMs consistently indicated that the current potential distribution area of M. punicea is concentrated between 29.02° N-39.06° N and 91.40° E-105.89° E. Under future climate change, the potential distribution of M. punicea will expand from the southeast to the northwest, and the expansion area under SSP5-8.5 would be wider than that under SSP2-4.5. In addition, there were significant differences in the potential distribution of M. punicea predicted by different SDMs, with slight differences caused by GCMs and emission scenarios. Our study suggests using agreement results from different SDMs as the basis for developing conservation strategies to improve reliability.

Modeling climate change impacts on potential global distribution of Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae)

The Asian citrus psyllid (ACP), Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae), is an efficient vector of "Candidatus Liberibacter" species, the causative agents implicated in citrus greening or huanglongbing (HLB). HLB is the most devastating citrus disease and has killed millions of citrus trees worldwide. Classical biological control using Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) against ACP has been successful in some regions. Climatic conditions are critical in determining suitable areas for the geographical distribution of T. radiata. However, paucity of information on climate change impacts on the global spread of T. radiata restricts international efforts to manage ACP with T. radiata. We investigated the potential global distribution of T. radiata using 317 native and non-native occurrence records and 20 environmental data sets (with correlation coefficients (|r| > 0.7)). Using the Maximum Entropy model, these data were analyzed for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two time periods (2030s and 2050s). We showed that habitat suitability for T. radiata occurred in all continents except Antarctica. However, the highly suitable areas for T. radiata were found in parts of the Americas, Asia, Africa and Oceania. The climate suitable areas would increase until the 2050s. The predictions showed that mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of T. radiata. The model reliably predicted habitat suitability for T. radiata, which can be adapted in classical biological control programs to effectively manage ACP in an environmentally friendly manner.

Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.

Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and has a wide global distribution. However, the current and future geographic distribution maps of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in global are still incomplete. Our study aims to predict the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in current and future conditions to provide a guideline for the formation and implementation of vector control strategies all over the world. We collected and screened the information on the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus by searching the literature and online databases and used ten algorithms to investigate its global distribution and impact factors. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus had been detected in 41 countries from 5 continents. The final ensemble model (TSS = 0.864 and AUC = 0.982) indicated that human footprint was the most important factor for the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The tropics and subtropics, including southeastern Asia, Central Africa, southeastern North America and eastern South America, showed high habitat suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is predicted to have a wider distribution in all the continents, especially in Western Europe and South America in the future under two extreme emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6). Targeted strategies for the control and prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus should be further strengthened.

Effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and potential distribution areas of 35 Millettia Species in China

Climate change has an extremely important impact on the geographic distribution of plants. The genus Millettia is an important plant resource in China and is widely used in medicine and ornamental industries. Due to the continuous changes of climate and the development and utilization of plant resources of the genus Millettia, it is of great significance to systematically investigate the geographic distribution of plants of the Millettia and their potential distribution under climate change. DIVA-GIS software was used to analyze 3492 plant specimens of 35 species of genus Millettia in the herbarium, and the ecological geographic distribution and richness of Millettia were analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the current and potential distribution in the future. The results show that the genus Millettia is distributed in 30 provinces in China, among which Yunnan and Guangdong provinces are the most distributed. Our model determines that precipitation in the driest month and annual temperature range are the most important bioclimatic variables. Future climate changes will increase the suitable habitat area of M. congestiflora by 16.75%, but other cliff beans Suitable habitats for vines will decrease significantly: M. cinereal by 47.66%, M. oosperma by 39.16%, M. pulchra by 36.04%, M. oraria by - 29.32%, M. nitida by 22.88%, M. dielsiana by 22.72%, M. sericosema by 19.53%, M. championii by 7.77%, M. pachycarpa by 7.72%, M. speciose by 2.05%, M. reticulata by 1.32%. Therefore, targeted measures should be taken to protect and develop these precious plant resources.

Projected Effects of Climate Change on Species Range of Pantala flavescens, a Wandering Glider Dragonfly

Dragonflies are sensitive to climate change due to their special habitat in aquatic and terrestrial environments, especially Pantala flavescens, which have extraordinary migratory abilities in response to climate change on spatio-temporal scales. At present, there are major gaps in the documentation of insects and the effects of climatic changes on the habitat and species it supports. In this study, we model the global distribution of a wandering glider dragonfly, P. flavescens, and detected the important environmental factors shaping its range, as well as habitat shifts under historical and future warming scenarios. The results showed a global map of species ranges of P. flavescens currently, including southern North America, most of South America, south-central Africa, most of Europe, South, East and Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania, in total, ca. 6581.667 × 10⁴ km². BIO5 (the max temperature of warmest month) and BIO13 (the precipitation of wettest month) greatly explained its species ranges. The historic refugia were identified around the Great Lakes in the north-central United States. Future warming will increase the total area of suitable habitat and shift the type of suitable habitat compared to the current distribution. The habitat suitability of P. flavescens decreased with elevation, global warming forced it to expand to higher elevations, and the habitat suitability of P. flavescens around the equator increased with global warming. Overall, our study provides a global dynamic pattern of suitable habitats for P. flavescens from the perspective of climate change, and provides a useful reference for biodiversity research and biological conservation.

MaxEnt modeling to show patterns of coastal habitats of reef-associated fish in the South and East China Seas

Reef-associated fish are a crucial source of protein for coastal residents and play an important role in the economy and ecology of marine ecosystems. However, human activities and climate change have led to the degradation of their habitats in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS). This study models the potential habitats of reef-associated fish in the SCS and ECS between 1993 and 2019 using high-spatial-resolution environmental factors and fish presence data, estimates the importance of environmental factors on habitat distribution and identifies seasonal variation and distribution shifts over recent decades, the results show moderate and highly suitable areas for reef-associated fish in the region total 360,000 km2. Sea body temperature, chlorophyll-α concentration, and seawater salinity are crucial for determining the distribution of reef-associated fish. Moreover, reef-associated fish are also sensitive to seawater temperature in winter. Suitable areas for reef-associated fish near coastlines have decreased due to environmental changes within the region. The findings of this study offer valuable resource for developing fishery management and conservation strategies for this important functional group.

Predicting the comprehensive geospatial pattern of two ephedrine-type alkaloids for Ephedra sinica in Inner Mongolia

Ephedra sinica Stapf. is a shrubby plant widely used in traditional Chinese medicine due to its high level of medicinal value, thus, it is in high demand. Ephedrine (E) and pseudoephedrine (PE) are key medicinal components and quality indicators for E. sinica. These two ephedrine-type alkaloids are basic elements that exert the medicinal effect of E. sinica. Recently, indiscriminate destruction and grassland desertification have caused the quantity and quality of these pharmacological plants to degenerate. Predicting potentially suitable habitat for high-quality E. sinica is essential for its future conservation and domestication. In this study, MaxEnt software was utilized to map suitable habitats for E. sinica in Inner Mongolia based on occurrence data and a set of variables related to climate, soil, topography and human impact. The model parametrization was optimized by evaluating alternative combinations of feature classes and values of the regularization multiplier. Second, a geospatial quality model was fitted to relate E and PE contents to the same environmental variables and to predict their spatial patterns across the study area. Outputs from the two models were finally coupled to map areas predicted to have both suitable conditions for E. sinica and high alkaloid content. Our results indicate that E. sinica with high-quality E content was mainly distributed in the Horqin, Ulan Butong and Wulanchabu grasslands. E. sinica with high-quality PE content was primarily found in the Ordos, Wulanchabu and Ulan Butong grasslands. This study provides scientific information for the protection and sustainable utilization of E. sinica. It can also help to control and prevent desertification in Inner Mongolia.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pine Wilt Disease in China under Climate Change

The primary culprits of pine wilt disease (PWD), an epidemic forest disease that significantly endangers the human environment and the world's forest resources, are pinewood nematodes (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus). The MaxEnt model has been used to predict and analyze the potential geographic spread of PWD in China under the effects of climate change and can serve as a foundation for high-efficiency monitoring, supervision, and prompt prevention and management. In this work, the MaxEnt model's criteria settings were optimized using data from 646 PWD infestation sites and seven climate variables from the ENMeval data package. It simulated and forecasted how PWD may be distributed under present and future (the 2050s and 2070s) climatic circumstances, and the key climate factors influencing the disease were examined. The area under AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.940 under the parameters, demonstrating the accuracy of the simulation. Under the current climate conditions, the moderately and highly suitable habitats of PWD are distributed in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, and other provinces. The outcomes demonstrated that the fundamental climate variables influencing the PWD distribution were rainfall and temperature, specifically including maximum temperature of warmest month, mean temperature of driest quarter, coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of wettest quarter. The evaluation outcomes of the MaxEnt model revealed that the total and highly suitable areas of PWD will expand substantially by both 2050 and 2070, and the potential distribution of PWD will have a tendency to spread towards high altitudes and latitudes.

Effects of climate-change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

Castanea henryi, with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate-change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate-change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi, assisted by a proposed three-domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor-made strategies.