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Islam A, Munro S, Hassan MM, Epstein JH, Klaassen M. The role of vaccination and environmental factors on outbreaks of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 in Bangladesh. One Health 2023; 17:100655. [PMID: 38116452 PMCID: PMC10728328 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023] Open
Abstract
High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc on the global poultry industry and threaten the health of wild bird populations, with sporadic spillover in humans and other mammals, resulting in widespread calls to vaccinate poultry. Bangladesh has been vaccinating poultry since 2012, presenting a prime opportunity to study the effects of vaccination on HPAI H5N1circulation in both poultry and wild birds. We investigated the efficacy of vaccinating commercial poultry against HPAI H5N1 along with climatic and socio-economic factors considered potential drivers of HPAI H5N1 outbreak risk in Bangladesh. Using a multivariate modeling approach, we estimated that the rate of outbreaks was 18 times higher before compared to after vaccination, with winter months having a three times higher chance of outbreaks than summer months. Variables resulting in small but significant increases in outbreak rate were relatively low ambient temperatures for the time of year, literacy rate, chicken and duck density, crop density, and presence of highways; this may be attributable to low temperatures supporting viral survival outside the host, higher literacy driving reporting rate, density of the host reservoir, and spread of the virus through increased connectivity. Despite the substantial impact of vaccination on outbreaks, we note that HPAI H5N1 is still enzootic in Bangladesh; vaccinated poultry flocks have high rates of H5N1 prevalence, and spillover to wild birds has increased. Vaccination in Bangladesh thus bears the risk of supporting "silent spread," where the vaccine only provides protection against disease and not also infection. Our findings underscore that poultry vaccination can be part of holistic HPAI mitigation strategies when accompanied by monitoring to avoid silent spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariful Islam
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10018, USA
| | | | - Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan
- Queensland Alliance for One Health Sciences, School of Veterinary Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chattogram 4225, Bangladesh
| | | | - Marcel Klaassen
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Wang Y, Gong G, Shi X, Huang Y, Deng X. Investigation of the effects of temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 in different climatic zones. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:83495-83512. [PMID: 37341939 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28237-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the effects of temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 for indoor heating, ventilation, and air conditioning design and policy development in different climate zones. We proposed a cumulative lag model with two specific parameters of specific average temperature and specific relative humidity to evaluate the impact of temperature and relative humidity on COVID-19 transmission by calculating the relative risk of cumulative effect and the relative risk of lag effect. We considered the temperature and relative humidity corresponding to the relative risk of cumulative effect or the relative risk of lag effect equal to 1 as the thresholds of outbreak. In this paper, we took the overall relative risk of cumulative effect equal to 1 as the thresholds. Data on daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 since January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021, for three sites in each of four climate zones similar to cold, mild, hot summer and cold winter, and hot summer and warm winter were selected for this study. Temperature and relative humidity had a lagged effect on COVID-19 transmission, with peaking the relative risk of lag effect at a lag of 3-7 days for most regions. All regions had different parameters areas with the relative risk of cumulative effect greater than 1. The overall relative risk of cumulative effect was greater than 1 in all regions when specific relative humidity was higher than 0.4, and when specific average temperature was higher than 0.42. In areas similar to hot summer and cold winter, temperature and the overall relative risk of cumulative effect were highly monotonically positively correlated. In areas similar to hot summer and warm winter, there was a monotonically positive correlation between relative humidity and the overall relative risk of cumulative effect. This study provides targeted recommendations for indoor air and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system control strategies and outbreak prevention strategies to reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission. In addition, countries should combine vaccination and non-pharmaceutical control measures, and strict containment policies are beneficial to control another pandemic of COVID-19 and similar viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxin Wang
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
| | - Guangcai Gong
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China.
| | - Xing Shi
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuting Huang
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaorui Deng
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
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Cao B, Bai C, Wu K, La T, Su Y, Che L, Zhang M, Lu Y, Gao P, Yang J, Xue Y, Li G. Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate-correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:3723-3746. [PMID: 37026556 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Revised: 03/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate has critical roles in the origin, pathogenesis and transmission of infectious zoonotic diseases. However, large-scale epidemiologic trend and specific response pattern of zoonotic diseases under future climate scenarios are poorly understood. Here, we projected the distribution shifts of transmission risks of main zoonotic diseases under climate change in China. First, we shaped the global habitat distribution of main host animals for three representative zoonotic diseases (2, 6, and 12 hosts for dengue, hemorrhagic fever, and plague, respectively) with 253,049 occurrence records using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling. Meanwhile, we predicted the risk distribution of the above three diseases with 197,098 disease incidence records from 2004 to 2017 in China using an integrated Maxent modeling approach. The comparative analysis showed that there exist highly coincident niche distributions between habitat distribution of hosts and risk distribution of diseases, indicating that the integrated Maxent modeling is accurate and effective for predicting the potential risk of zoonotic diseases. On this basis, we further projected the current and future transmission risks of 11 main zoonotic diseases under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070 in China using the above integrated Maxent modeling with 1,001,416 disease incidence records. We found that Central China, Southeast China, and South China are concentrated regions with high transmission risks for main zoonotic diseases. More specifically, zoonotic diseases had diverse shift patterns of transmission risks including increase, decrease, and unstable. Further correlation analysis indicated that these patterns of shifts were highly correlated with global warming and precipitation increase. Our results revealed how specific zoonotic diseases respond in a changing climate, thereby calling for effective administration and prevention strategies. Furthermore, these results will shed light on guiding future epidemiologic prediction of emerging infectious diseases under global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Cao
- Core Research Laboratory, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Chengke Bai
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Kunyi Wu
- Core Research Laboratory, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Ting La
- National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Biodiagnosis & Biotherapy, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Yiyang Su
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Lingyu Che
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Meng Zhang
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Yumeng Lu
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Pufan Gao
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jingjing Yang
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Ying Xue
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
| | - Guishuang Li
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
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Yang XY, Gong QL, Li YJ, Ata EB, Hu MJ, Sun YY, Xue ZY, Yang YS, Sun XP, Shi CW, Yang GL, Huang HB, Jiang YL, Wang JZ, Cao X, Wang N, Zeng Y, Yang WT, Wang CF. The global prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N8) infection in birds: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Microb Pathog 2023; 176:106001. [PMID: 36682670 DOI: 10.1016/j.micpath.2023.106001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2022] [Revised: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
The zoonotic pathogen avian influenza A H5N8 causes enormous economic losses in the poultry industry and poses a serious threat to the public health. Here, we report the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the worldwide prevalence of birds. We filtered 45 eligible articles from seven databases. A random-effects model was used to analyze the prevalence of H5N8 in birds. The pooled prevalence of H5N8 in birds was 1.6%. In the regions, Africa has the highest prevalence (8.0%). Based on the source, village (8.3%) was the highest. In the sample type, the highest prevalence was organs (79.7%). In seasons, the highest prevalence was autumn (28.1%). The largest prevalence in the sampling time was during 2019 or later (7.0%). Furthermore, geographical factors also were associated with the prevalence. Therefore, we recommend site-specific prevention and control tools for this strain in birds and enhance the surveillance to reduce the spread of H5N8.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xue-Yao Yang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Qing-Long Gong
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Yan-Jin Li
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Emad Beshir Ata
- Parasitology and Animal Diseases Dep., Vet. Res. Institute, National Research Centre, 12622, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Man-Jie Hu
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Yong-Yang Sun
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Zhi-Yang Xue
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Ying-Shi Yang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Xue-Pan Sun
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Chun-Wei Shi
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Gui-Lian Yang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Hai-Bin Huang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Yan-Long Jiang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Jian-Zhong Wang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Xin Cao
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Nan Wang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Yan Zeng
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China
| | - Wen-Tao Yang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China.
| | - Chun-Feng Wang
- College of Veterinary Medicine, College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Provincial Engineering Research Center of Animal Probiotics, Key Laboratory of Animal Production and Product Quality Safety of Ministry of Education, Jilin Agricultural University, 2888 Xincheng Street, Changchun, 130118, China.
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Yin J, Liu T, Tang F, Chen D, Sun L, Song S, Zhang S, Wu J, Li Z, Xing W, Wang X, Ding G. Effects of ambient temperature on influenza-like illness: A multicity analysis in Shandong Province, China, 2014-2017. Front Public Health 2023; 10:1095436. [PMID: 36699880 PMCID: PMC9868675 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1095436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The associations between ambient temperature and influenza-like illness (ILI) have been investigated in previous studies. However, they have inconsistent results. The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of ambient temperature on ILI in Shandong Province, China. Methods Weekly ILI surveillance and meteorological data over 2014-2017 of the Shandong Province were collected from the Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the China Meteorological Data Service Center, respectively. A distributed lag non-linear model was adopted to estimate the city-specific temperature-ILI relationships, which were used to pool the regional-level and provincial-level estimates through a multivariate meta-analysis. Results There were 911,743 ILI cases reported in the study area between 2014 and 2017. The risk of ILI increased with decreasing weekly ambient temperature at the provincial level, and the effect was statistically significant when the temperature was <-1.5°C (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00-1.54). We found that the relationship between temperature and ILI showed an L-shaped curve at the regional level, except for Southern Shandong (S-shaped). The risk of ILI was influenced by cold, with significant lags from 2.5 to 3 weeks, and no significant effect of heat on ILI was found. Conclusion Our findings confirm that low temperatures significantly increased the risk of ILI in the study area. In addition, the cold effect of ambient temperature may cause more risk of ILI than the hot effect. The findings have significant implications for developing strategies to control ILI and respond to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Yin
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong, China,Center for Big Data Research in Health and Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Ti Liu
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Fang Tang
- Center for Big Data Research in Health and Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Dongzhen Chen
- Institute of Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Liaocheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liaocheng, Shandong, China
| | - Lin Sun
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Shaoxia Song
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Shengyang Zhang
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Julong Wu
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Zhong Li
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Weijia Xing
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong, China,Weijia Xing ✉
| | - Xianjun Wang
- Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, China,Xianjun Wang ✉
| | - Guoyong Ding
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong, China,*Correspondence: Guoyong Ding ✉
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Zhang T, Qin W, Nie T, Zhang D, Wu X. Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of varicella in Lu'an, Eastern China, 2015-2020. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:10052-10062. [PMID: 36066801 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22878-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2022] [Accepted: 08/31/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Varicella (chickenpox) is a serious public health problem in China, with the most reported cases among childhood vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, and its reported incidence has increased over 20-fold since 2005. Few previous studies have explored the association of multiple meteorological factors with varicella and considered the potential confounding effects of air pollutants. It is the first study to investigate and analyze the effects of multiple meteorological factors on varicella incidence, controlling for the confounding effects of various air pollutants. Daily meteorological and air pollution data and varicella cases were collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, in Lu'an, Eastern China. A combination of the quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the meteorological factor-lag-varicella relationship, and the risk of varicella in extreme meteorological conditions. The maximum single-day lag effects of varicella were 1.288 (95%CI, 1.201-1.381, lag 16 day), 1.475 (95%CI, 1.152-1.889, lag 0 day), 1.307 (95%CI, 1.196-1.427, lag 16 day), 1.271 (95%CI, 0.981-1.647, lag 4 day), and 1.266 (95%CI, 1.162-1.378, lag 21 day), when mean temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), mean air pressure, wind speed, and sunshine hours were -5.8°C, 13.5°C, 1035.5 hPa, 6 m/s, and 0 h, respectively. At the maximum lag period, the overall effects of mean temperature and pressure on varicella showed W-shaped curves, peaked at 17.5°C (RR=2.085, 95%CI: 1.480-2.937) and 1035.5 hPa (RR=5.481, 95%CI: 1.813-16.577), while DTR showed an M-shaped curve and peaked at 4.4°C (RR=6.131, 95%CI: 1.120-33.570). Sunshine hours were positively correlated with varicella cases at the lag of 0-8 days and 0-9 days when sunshine duration exceeded 10 h. Furthermore, the lag effects of extreme meteorological factors on varicella cases were statistically significant, except for the extremely high wind speed. We found that mean temperature, mean air pressure, DTR, and sunshine hours had significant nonlinear effects on varicella incidence, which may be important predictors of varicella early warning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tingting Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Wei Qin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Department of Expanded Program on Immunization, Lu'an Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lu'an, 237000, Anhui, China
| | - Tingyue Nie
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Deyue Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Xuezhong Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232000, Anhui, China.
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Zhang R, Peng Z, Meng Y, Song H, Wang S, Bi P, Li D, Zhao X, Yao X, Li Y. Temperature and influenza transmission: Risk assessment and attributable burden estimation among 30 cities in China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 215:114343. [PMID: 36115415 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2022] [Revised: 08/19/2022] [Accepted: 09/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many studies have explored the epidemiological characteristics of influenza. However, most previous studies were conducted in a specific region without a national picture which is important to develop targeted strategies and measures on influenza control and prevention. OBJECTIVES To explore the association between ambient temperature and incidence of influenza, to estimate the attributable risk from temperature in 30 Chinese cities with different climatic characteristics for a national picture, and to identify the vulnerable populations for national preventative policy development. METHODS Daily meteorological and influenza incidence data from the 30 Chinese cities over the period 2016-19 were collected. We estimated the city-specific association between daily mean temperature and influenza incidence using a distributed lag non-linear model and evaluated the pooled effects using multivariate meta-analysis. The attributable fractions compared with reference temperature were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed by region, sex and age. RESULTS Overall, an N-shape relationship between temperature and influenza incidence was found in China. The cumulative relative risk of the peak risk temperature (5.1 °C) was 2.13 (95%CI: 1.41, 3.22). And 60% (95%eCI: 54.3%, 64.3%) of influenza incidence was attributed to ambient temperature during the days with sensitive temperatures (1.6°C-14.4 °C). The ranges of sensitive temperatures and the attributable disease burden due to temperatures varied for different populations and regions. The residents in South China and the children aged ≤5 and 6-17 years had higher fractions attributable to sensitive temperatures. CONCLUSIONS Tailored preventions targeting on most vulnerable populations and regions should be developed to reduce influenza burden from sensitive temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rui Zhang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Zhibin Peng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yujie Meng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hejia Song
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Songwang Wang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Dan Li
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xiang Zhao
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoyuan Yao
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yonghong Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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8
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Zhang JL, Chen ZY, Lin SL, King CC, Chen CC, Chen PS. Airborne Avian Influenza Virus in Ambient Air in the Winter Habitats of Migratory Birds. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2022; 56:15365-15376. [PMID: 36288568 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c04528] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Outbreaks of avian influenza virus (AIV) have raised public concerns recently. Airborne AIV has been evaluated in live poultry markets and case farms; however, no study has discussed airborne AIV in ambient air in the winter habitats of migratory birds. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate airborne AIV, specifically H5, H7, and H9, in a critical winter habitat of migratory birds and assess the factors influencing airborne AIV transmission in ambient air to provide novel insights into the epidemiology of avian influenza. A total of 357 ambient air samples were collected in the Aogu Wetland, Taiwan, Republic of China, between October 2017 and December 2019 and analyzed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The effects of environmental factors including air pollutants, meteorological factors, and the species of the observed migratory birds on the concentration of airborne AIV were also analyzed. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the relationship between airborne AIV in ambient air and the influence factors in the winter habitats of migratory birds, demonstrating the benefits of environmental sampling for infectious disease epidemiology. The positive rate of airborne H7 (12%) was higher than that of H5 (8%) and H9 (10%). The daily mean temperature and daily maximum temperature had a significant negative correlation with influenza A, H7, and H9. Cold air masses and bird migration were significantly associated with airborne H9 and H7, respectively. In addition, we observed a significant correlation between AIV and the number of pintails, common teals, Indian spot-billed ducks, northern shovelers, Eurasian wigeons, tufted ducks, pied avocets, black-faced spoonbills, and great cormorants. In conclusion, we demonstrated the potential for alternative surveillance approaches (monitoring bird species) as an indicator for influenza-related risks and identified cold air masses and the presence of specific bird species as potential drivers of the presence and/or the airborne concentration of AIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Lin Zhang
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung City807, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Zi-Yu Chen
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung City807, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Si-Ling Lin
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung City807, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Chwan-Chuen King
- Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei City106, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Chen-Chih Chen
- Animal Biologics Pilot Production Center, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung City912, Taiwan, Republic of China
- Research Center for Animal Biologics, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung City912, Taiwan, Republic of China
- Institute of Wildlife Conservation, College of Veterinary Medicine, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung City912, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Pei-Shih Chen
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung City807, Taiwan, Republic of China
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung City807, Taiwan, Republic of China
- Department of Medical Research, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung City807, Taiwan, Republic of China
- Research Center for Precision Environmental Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung City807, Taiwan, Republic of China
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9
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Baek K, Choi J, Park JT, Kwak K. Influence of temperature and precipitation on the incidence of hepatitis A in Seoul, Republic of Korea: a time series analysis using distributed lag linear and non-linear model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:1725-1736. [PMID: 35829753 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02313-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2022] [Revised: 03/21/2022] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the association between temperature and precipitation and the incidence of hepatitis A in Seoul, Korea, as meteorological factors may have different effects on specific diseases depending on the lifestyle in each region. Weekly cases of hepatitis A, weekly mean daily precipitation, and temperature data from 2016 to 2020 were analyzed. Quasi-Poisson-generalized linear models with time variable adjusted by spline function were used considering 0-6-week lags. The association of each variable and hepatitis A incidence was assessed by the single lag and the constrained distributed lag model. Multivariable distributed lag linear and non-linear models were used to develop models with significant independent variables. Weekly mean of daily mean temperature (Tmean) and maximum temperature (Tmax) were negatively associated with hepatitis A in the 6-week lag. Precipitation was negatively associated with hepatitis A in the 5- and 6-week lags. The multivariable model showed the negative association of Tmax, precipitation and hepatitis A in the 5- and 6-week lags. In the non-linear models, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was the highest at a Tmax of 11 °C and decreased thereafter. IRR was the highest at 12 mm of precipitation and showed decrease pattern to 25 mm and then gradually increased in the 5- and 6-week lags. Identifying the impact of climate factors on hepatitis A incidence would help in the development of strategies to prevent diseases and indirectly estimate the impact of climate change on hepatitis A epidemiology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kiook Baek
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Yeungnam University Hospital, Daegu, Republic of Korea
| | - Jonghyuk Choi
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Dankook University, Cheonan, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong-Tae Park
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan, Republic of Korea
| | - Kyeongmin Kwak
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan, Republic of Korea.
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10
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Chen W, Zhang X, Zhao W, Yang L, Wang Z, Bi H. Environmental factors and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the global outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:44175-44185. [PMID: 35128608 PMCID: PMC8818332 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19016-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/29/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has posed a major threat to global public health. Understanding the spatiotemporal outbreak characteristics and environmental factors of H5N1 outbreaks is of great significance for the establishment of effective prevention and control systems. The time and location of H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds officially confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health from 2005 to 2019 were collected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and multidistance spatial agglomeration analysis methods were used to analyze the global outbreak sites of H5N1. Combined with remote sensing data, the correlation between H5N1 outbreaks and environmental factors was analyzed using binary logistic regression methods. We analyzed the correlation between the H5N1 outbreak and environmental factors and finally made a risk prediction for the global H5N1 outbreaks. The results show that the peak of the H5N1 outbreaks occurs in winter and spring. H5N1 outbreaks exhibit aggregation, and a weak aggregation phenomenon is noted on the scale close to 5000 km. Water distance, road distance, railway distance, wind speed, leaf area index (LAI), and specific humidity were protective factors for the outbreak of H5N1, and the odds ratio (OR) were 0.985, 0.989, 0.995, 0.717, 0.832, and 0.935, respectively. Temperature was a risk factor with an OR of 1.073. The significance of these ORs was greater than 95%. The global risk prediction map was obtained. Given that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading globally, the methods and results of this study can provide a reference for studying the spread of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Chen
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China.
| | - Xuepeng Zhang
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Wenwu Zhao
- Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Lan Yang
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Zhe Wang
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Hongru Bi
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
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11
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Li Y, Wu J, Hao J, Dou Q, Xiang H, Liu S. Short-term impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of influenza in Wuhan, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:18116-18125. [PMID: 34677763 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16948-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Few studies have estimated the nonlinear association of ambient temperature with the risk of influenza. We therefore applied a time-series analysis to explore the short-term effect of ambient temperature on the incidence of influenza in Wuhan, China. Daily influenza cases were collected from Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Hubei CDC) from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2017. The meteorological and daily pollutant data was obtained from the Hubei Meteorological Service Center and National Air Quality Monitoring Stations, respectively. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) coupled with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to explore the exposure-lag-response relationship between the short-term risk of influenza and daily average ambient temperature. Analyses were also performed to assess the extreme cold and hot temperature effects. We observed that the ambient temperature was statistically significant, and the exposure-response curve is approximately S-shaped, with a peak observed at 23.57 ℃. The single-day lag curve showed that extreme hot and cold temperatures were both significantly associated with influenza. The extreme hot temperature has an acute effect on influenza, with the most significant effect observed at lag 0-1. The extreme cold temperature has a relatively smaller effect but lasts longer, with the effect exerted continuously during a lag of 2-4 days. Our study found significant nonlinear and delayed associations between ambient temperature and the incidence of influenza. Our finding contributes to the establishment of an early warning system for airborne infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanbing Li
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Basic Medicine Peking, Union Medical College, Beijing, 100005, China
- Center of Environmental and Health Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100005, China
| | - Jingtao Wu
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Basic Medicine Peking, Union Medical College, Beijing, 100005, China
- Center of Environmental and Health Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100005, China
| | - Jiayuan Hao
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Qiujun Dou
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Hao Xiang
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Suyang Liu
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China.
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12
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Wei JT, Liu YX, Zhu YC, Qian J, Ye RZ, Li CY, Ji XK, Li HK, Qi C, Wang Y, Yang F, Zhou YH, Yan R, Cui XM, Liu YL, Jia N, Li SX, Li XJ, Xue FZ, Zhao L, Cao WC. Impacts of transportation and meteorological factors on the transmission of COVID-19. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2020; 230:113610. [PMID: 32896785 PMCID: PMC7448770 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2020.113610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is challenging global public health response system. We aim to identify the risk factors for the transmission of COVID-19 using data on mainland China. We estimated attack rate (AR) at county level. Logistic regression was used to explore the role of transportation in the nationwide spread. Generalized additive model and stratified linear mixed-effects model were developed to identify the effects of multiple meteorological factors on local transmission. The ARs in affected counties ranged from 0.6 to 9750.4 per million persons, with a median of 8.8. The counties being intersected by railways, freeways, national highways or having airports had significantly higher risk for COVID-19 with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 1.40 (p = 0.001), 2.07 (p < 0.001), 1.31 (p = 0.04), and 1.70 (p < 0.001), respectively. The higher AR of COVID-19 was significantly associated with lower average temperature, moderate cumulative precipitation and higher wind speed. Significant pairwise interactions were found among above three meteorological factors with higher risk of COVID-19 under low temperature and moderate precipitation. Warm areas can also be in higher risk of the disease with the increasing wind speed. In conclusion, transportation and meteorological factors may play important roles in the transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China, and could be integrated in consideration by public health alarm systems to better prevent the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia-Te Wei
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Yun-Xia Liu
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Yu-Chen Zhu
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Jie Qian
- School of Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, PR China
| | - Run-Ze Ye
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Chun-Yu Li
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Xiao-Kang Ji
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Hong-Kai Li
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Chang Qi
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Ying Wang
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Fan Yang
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Yu-Hao Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Ran Yan
- Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Xiao-Ming Cui
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Yuan-Li Liu
- School of Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, PR China
| | - Na Jia
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Shi-Xue Li
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China; Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Xiu-Jun Li
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China; Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China
| | - Fu-Zhong Xue
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China; Institute for Medical Dataology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China.
| | - Lin Zhao
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China.
| | - Wu-Chun Cao
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, PR China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China.
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13
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Lu JY, Zhang ZB, He Q, Ma XW, Yang ZC. Association between climatic factors and varicella incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 728:138777. [PMID: 32330739 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2019] [Revised: 04/15/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To analyze the correlation between climatic factors and the incidence of varicella in Guangzhou, and improve the prevention measures about public health. METHODS Data for daily climatic variables and varicella incidence from 2006 to 2018 in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau and the National Notifiable Disease Report System. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to evaluate the association between climatic factors and varicella incidence. RESULTS The nonlinear effects of meteorological factors were observed. At lag day21,when the mean temperature was 31.8 °C, the relative risk was the highest as 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07-1.16). When the diurnal temperature range was 24.0 °C at lag day 20, the highest RR was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.05-1.17). For rainfall, the highest RR was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.19) at lag day 21,when the aggregate rainfall was 160 mm. When air pressure was 1028 hPa, the highest RR was 1.08 (95% CI: 1.04-1.13) at lag day 21. When wind speed was 0.7 m/s, the highest RR was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.11) at lag day 7. When the hours of sunshine were 9.0 h at lag day 21, the RR was highest as 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02-1.05). Aggregate rainfall, air pressure, and sunshine hours were positively correlated with the incidence of varicella, which was inconsistent with the wind velocity. Mean temperature showed a reverse U-shape curve relationship with varicella, while the diurnal temperature range showed a binomial distribution curve. The extreme effect of climatic factors on the varicella cases was statistically significant, apart from the extremely low effect of rainfall. CONCLUSION Our preliminary results offered fundamental knowledge which might be benefit to give an insight into epidemic trends of varicella and develop an early warning system. We could use our findings about influential factors to strengthen the intervention and prevention of varicella.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian-Yun Lu
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Zhou-Bin Zhang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Qing He
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Xiao-Wei Ma
- Department of Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Zhi-Cong Yang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China.
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Chen Y, Cheng J, Xu Z, Hu W, Lu J. Live poultry market closure and avian influenza A (H7N9) infection in cities of China, 2013-2017: an ecological study. BMC Infect Dis 2020; 20:369. [PMID: 32448137 PMCID: PMC7245998 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-020-05091-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2020] [Accepted: 05/13/2020] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Previous studies have proven that the closure of live poultry markets (LPMs) was an effective intervention to reduce human risk of avian influenza A (H7N9) infection, but evidence is limited on the impact of scale and duration of LPMs closure on the transmission of H7N9. Method Five cities (i.e., Shanghai, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou) with the largest number of H7N9 cases in mainland China from 2013 to 2017 were selected in this study. Data on laboratory-confirmed H7N9 human cases in those five cities were obtained from the Chinese National Influenza Centre. The detailed information of LPMs closure (i.e., area and duration) was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture. We used a generalized linear model with a Poisson link to estimate the effect of LPMs closure, reported as relative risk reduction (RRR). We used classification and regression trees (CARTs) model to select and quantify the dominant factor of H7N9 infection. Results All five cities implemented the LPMs closure, and the risk of H7N9 infection decreased significantly after LPMs closure with RRR ranging from 0.80 to 0.93. Respectively, a long-term LPMs closure for 10–13 weeks elicited a sustained and highly significant risk reduction of H7N9 infection (RRR = 0.98). Short-time LPMs closure with 2 weeks in every epidemic did not reduce the risk of H7N9 infection (p > 0.05). Partially closed LPMs in some suburbs contributed only 35% for reduction rate (RRR = 0.35). Shenzhen implemented partial closure for first 3 epidemics (p > 0.05) and all closure in the latest 2 epidemic waves (RRR = 0.64). Conclusion Our findings suggest that LPMs all closure in whole city can be a highly effective measure comparing with partial closure (i.e. only urban closure, suburb and rural remain open). Extend the duration of closure and consider permanently closing the LPMs will help improve the control effect. The effect of LPMs closure seems greater than that of meteorology on H7N9 transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Tropical Diseases Control of Ministry of Education, One Health Center of Excellence for Research &Training, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.,School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Jiahai Lu
- School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Tropical Diseases Control of Ministry of Education, One Health Center of Excellence for Research &Training, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
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Cheng W, Li H, Zhang X, Sun W, Chong KC, Lau SYF, Yu Z, Liu S, Ling F, Pan J, Chen E. The association between ambient particulate matters, nitrogen dioxide, and childhood scarlet fever in Hangzhou, Eastern China, 2014-2018. CHEMOSPHERE 2020; 246:125826. [PMID: 31918112 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.125826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2019] [Revised: 12/28/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The emerging cases of childhood scarlet fever (SF) and worsening air pollution problems in Chinese cities suggests a potential linkage between them. However, few studies had explored this association in a large childhood population. METHODS We conducted a time-series analysis using the daily count of SF and the daily concentrations of particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 (PM10), as well as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in Hangzhou, China from 2014 to 2018. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to estimate the lag effects of PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 for a maximum lag of 10 days, which were quantified using relative risk (RR) comparing the adjusted risks at the 2.5th (extremely low effect) and 97.5th (extremely high effect) percentiles of concentration of the three air pollutants to that at the median. Stratified RRs by sex were also reported. RESULTS Using the median concentration as reference, for extremely high effect, the RR was the highest on lag days 5, 6, and 3 for PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 respectively. While on lag day 0, the RR of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 were 1.04 (95%CI: 0.90-1.20), 1.07 (95%CI: 0.92-1.24), and 1.08 (95%CI: 0.92-1.26) respectively, the RRs increased constantly and cumulatively to the maximum values of 1.88 (95%CI: 1.33-2.66), 1.82 (95%CI: 1.29-2.55), and 2.19 (95%CI: 1.47-3.27) for PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 respectively on lag day 10. Subgroup analyses showed that females appeared to be more vulnerable to the three pollutants than males. CONCLUSION Our study provides evidence that PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 exert delayed effects on SF infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Cheng
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China
| | - Huanhuan Li
- Zhejiang Hospital, 12 Lingyin Road, Xihu District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310013, China
| | - Xueying Zhang
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City, NY, 10029, United States
| | - Wanwan Sun
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China
| | - Ka Chun Chong
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong China
| | - Steven Yuk-Fai Lau
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong China
| | - Zhao Yu
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China
| | - Shelan Liu
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China
| | - Feng Ling
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China
| | - Jinren Pan
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China.
| | - Enfu Chen
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China.
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16
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Cao LT, Liu HH, Li J, Yin XD, Duan Y, Wang J. Relationship of meteorological factors and human brucellosis in Hebei province, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 703:135491. [PMID: 31740063 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2019] [Revised: 10/31/2019] [Accepted: 11/11/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Brucellosis has always been one of the major public health problems in China. Investigating the influencing factors of brucellosis is conducive to its prevention and control. The incidence trend of brucellosis shows an obvious seasonality, suggesting that there may be a correlation between brucellosis and meteorological factors, but related studies were few. We aimed to use the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and brucellosis. METHODS The data of monthly incidence of brucellosis and meteorological factors in Hebei province from January 2004 to December 2015 were collected from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center and Chinese meteorological data website. An ARIMA model incorporated with covariables was conducted to estimate the effects of meteorological variables on brucellosis. RESULTS There was a highest peak from May to July every year and an upward trend during the study period. Atmospheric pressure, wind speed, mean temperature, and relative humidity had significant effects on brucellosis. The ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 model with the covariates of atmospheric pressure, wind speed and mean temperature was the optimal model. The results showed that the atmospheric pressure with a 2-month lag (β = -0.004, p = 0.037), the wind speed with a 1-month lag (β = 0.030, p = 0.035), and the mean temperature with a 2-month lag (β = -0.003, p = 0.034) were significant predictors. CONCLUSION Our study suggests that atmospheric pressure, wind speed, mean temperature, and relative humidity have a significant impact on brucellosis. Further understanding of its mechanism would help facilitate the monitoring and early warning of brucellosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Long-Ting Cao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230036, China
| | - Hong-Hui Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230036, China
| | - Juan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230036, China
| | - Xiao-Dong Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230036, China
| | - Yu Duan
- Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230036, China
| | - Jing Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230036, China.
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17
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Saud S, Li G, Sun Y, Khan MI, Ur Rehman A, Uzzaman A, Liu W, Ding C, Xiao H, Wang Y, Cao C. A facile isoelectric focusing of myoglobin and hemoglobin used as markers for screening of chicken meat quality in China. Electrophoresis 2019; 40:2767-2774. [PMID: 31172555 DOI: 10.1002/elps.201900157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2019] [Revised: 05/16/2019] [Accepted: 06/03/2019] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
A novel analytical protocol was developed for general quality screening of chicken meat based on IEF and protein extraction. To demonstrate the developed protocol, 24 chickens were divided into three groups; each had eight chickens. The chickens in Group 1 were slaughtered by exsanguination, Group 2 asphyxiated in water, and that in Group 3 were infected by new castle disease virus. Proteins were extracted from the meat samples by using pure water as an extractant, separated by IEF, verified by western blot, and quantified via imaging analysis. The relevant experiments demonstrated that two myoglobin (Mb) bands were detected at pI 6.8 and 7.04 for all samples of Groups 1, 2, and 3, but there were additional hemoglobin (Hb) bands at pI 7.09 and 7.13 (P < 0.05) for the samples of Groups 2 and 3. The results implied that Hb bands might be a potential biomarker for the screening of chicken meat quality. The RSD values of two Mb bands (pI 6.8 and 7.04) in Group 1 were respectively 4.08 and 3.63%, the ones of two Hb bands (pI 7.09 and 7.13) in Group 2 were 3.66 and 2.10%, and those in Group 3 were 2.17% and 2.77%, respectively. All the RSD values indicated high stability and reliability of the developed protocol. Additionally, the protocol had a direct readout of protein bands in IEF without staining. However, it was time-consuming and had high cost. Even so, the relevant general method and finding have potential for screening of chicken meat quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shah Saud
- Department of Instrument Science and Engineering, School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China.,School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Guoqing Li
- Department of Instrument Science and Engineering, School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China.,School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Yingjie Sun
- Shanghai Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Muhammad Idrees Khan
- Department of Instrument Science and Engineering, School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China.,School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Ashfaq Ur Rehman
- School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Asad Uzzaman
- Department of Instrument Science and Engineering, School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China.,School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Weiwen Liu
- Department of Instrument Science and Engineering, School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Chan Ding
- Shanghai Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Hua Xiao
- School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Yuxing Wang
- School of Physics and Astronomy, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
| | - Chengxi Cao
- Department of Instrument Science and Engineering, School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China.,School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
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Lau SYF, Chen E, Wang M, Cheng W, Zee BCY, Han X, Yu Z, Sun R, Chong KC, Wang X. Association between meteorological factors, spatiotemporal effects, and prevalence of influenza A subtype H7 in environmental samples in Zhejiang province, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 663:793-803. [PMID: 30738260 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2018] [Revised: 01/19/2019] [Accepted: 01/30/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human infection with the H7N9 virus has been reported recurrently since spring 2013. Given low pathogenicity of the virus in poultry, the outbreak cannot be noticed easily until a case of human infection is reported. Studies showed that the prevalence of influenza A subtype H7 in environmental samples is associated with the number of human H7N9 infection, with the latter associated with meteorological factors. Understanding the association between meteorological factors and the prevalence of H7 subtype in the environmental samples can shed light on how the virus propagates in the environment for disease control. METHOD Environmental samples and meteorological data (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed) collected in Zhejiang province, China, during 2013-2017 were used. A Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic spatiotemporal model which captures spatiotemporal effects was adopted to model the prevalence of H7 subtype with the meteorological factors. RESULTS The monthly overall prevalence of H7 subtype in the environmental samples was usually <30%. Compared with the odds at median, moderately low precipitation (49.19-115.60 mm), moderately long sunshine duration (4.22-9.25 h) and low temperature (<9.33 °C) were statistically significantly associated with a higher adjusted odds of detecting an H7-positive sample, whereas moderately high precipitation (119.51-146.85 mm), short and moderately short sunshine duration (<1.77 h; 4.00-4.17 h), and high temperature (>23.09 °C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower adjusted odds. The adjusted odds increased multiplicatively by 1.11 per 1% increase in relative humidity. CONCLUSION Since the prevalence of H7 subtype in environmental samples was associated with meteorological conditions and the number of human H7N9 infection, an environmental surveillance program which incorporates meteorological conditions in planning allows for early detection of the spread of the virus in the environment and better preparation for the outbreak in the human population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven Yuk-Fai Lau
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Enfu Chen
- Zhejiang Province Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China.
| | - Maggie Wang
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China; Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, No. 10, 2nd Yuexing Road, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Wei Cheng
- Zhejiang Province Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China.
| | - Benny Chung-Ying Zee
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China; Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, No. 10, 2nd Yuexing Road, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Xiaoran Han
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China
| | - Zhao Yu
- Zhejiang Province Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China.
| | - Riyang Sun
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Ka Chun Chong
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China; Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, No. 10, 2nd Yuexing Road, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Xiaoxiao Wang
- Zhejiang Province Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 3399 Binsheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China.
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Adlhoch C, Kuiken T, Monne I, Mulatti P, Smietanka K, Staubach C, Guajardo IM, Baldinelli F. Avian influenza overview November 2018 - February 2019. EFSA J 2019; 17:e05664. [PMID: 32626274 PMCID: PMC7009136 DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
No human infections due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) or A(H5N6) viruses ‐ detected in wild birds and poultry outbreaks in Europe ‐ have been reported so far and the risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered very low. Between 16 November 2018 and 15 February 2019, two HPAI A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments in Bulgaria, two HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in wild birds in Denmark and one low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5N3) in captive birds in the Netherlands were reported in the European Union (EU). Genetic characterisation of the HPAI A(H5N6) viruses reveals that they cluster with the A(H5N6) viruses that have been circulating in Europe since December 2017. The wild bird species involved were birds of prey and were likely infected due to hunting or scavenging infected wild waterfowl. However, HPAI virus was not detected in other wild birds during this period. Outside the EU, two HPAI outbreaks were reported in poultry during the reporting period from western Russia. Sequence information on an HPAI A(H5N6) virus found in a common gull in western Russia in October 2018 suggests that the virus clusters within clade 2.3.4.4c and is closely related to viruses that transmitted zoonotically in China. An increasing number of outbreaks in poultry and wild birds in Asia, Africa and the Middle East was observed during the time period for this report. Currently there is no evidence of a new HPAI virus incursion from Asia into Europe. However, passive surveillance systems may not be sensitive enough if the prevalence or case fatality in wild birds is very low. Nevertheless, it is important to encourage and maintain a certain level of passive surveillance in Europe testing single sick or dead wild birds and birds of prey as they may be sensitive sentinel species for the presence of HPAI virus in the environment. A well‐targeted active surveillance might complement passive surveillance to collect information on HPAI infectious status of apparently healthy wild bird populations.
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