Comparison of the international consensus guidelines for predicting malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms. Surgery. 2016;159:878-884. [PMID: 26506564 DOI: 10.1016/j.surg.2015.08.042]

Uncinate Duct Dilatation Predicts Additional Risk for High-Grade Dysplasia or Invasive Carcinoma Among Fukuoka-Positive Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether uncinate duct dilatation (UDD) increases the risk of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma (HGD/IC) in Fukuoka-positive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs).

BACKGROUND

Though classified as a branch duct, the uncinate duct is the primary duct of the pancreatic ventral anlage. We hypothesized that UDD, like main duct dilatation, confers additional risk for HGD/IC.

METHODS

A total of 467 patients met inclusion criteria in a retrospective cohort study of surgically resected IPMNs at the Massachusetts General Hospital. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze the association between UDD (defined as ≥4 mm) and HGD/IC, controlling for Fukuoka risk criteria. In a secondary analysis, the modeling was repeated in the 194 patients with dorsal branch duct IPMNs (BD-IPMNs) in the pancreatic neck, body, or tail.

RESULTS

Mean age at surgery was 70, and 229 (49%) patients were female. In total, 267 (57%) patients had only worrisome features and 200 (43%) had at least 1 high-risk feature. UDD was present in 164 (35%) patients, of whom 118 (73%) had HGD/IC. On multivariable analysis, UDD increased the odds of HGD/IC by 2.8-fold, even while controlling for Fukuoka risk factors (95% CI: 1.8-4.4, P <0.001). Prevalence of HGD/IC in all patients with UDD was 73%, compared with 74% in patients with high-risk stigmata and 73% in patients with main duct IPMNs. In the secondary analysis, UDD increased the odds of HGD/IC by 3.2-fold in patients with dorsal BD-IPMNs (95% CI: 1.3-7.7, P =0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

UDD confers additional risk for HGD/IC unaccounted for by current Fukuoka criteria. Further research can extend this study to Fukuoka-negative patients, including unresected patients.

Circulating cytokines allow for identification of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are the precursor lesions of pancreatic cancers, requiring active surgical intervention during cancer development. However, the current criteria for predicting malignant IPMNs remain challenging and limited. Hence, this study aimed to assess the discriminatory performance of circulating cytokines, including TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8, then build a novel predictive model to improve the diagnostic accuracy.

METHOD

A total of 131 retrospective (from March 2016 to December 2019) and 53 prospective (from March 2020 to January 2021) patients who were histologically confirmed as IPMNs were consecutively collected and analyzed.

RESULT

The circulating levels of TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 were significantly elevated in malignant IPMNs, and were verified as independent factors for malignant IPMNs (p < 0.05). Then, a novel score, the circulating cytokine score (CCS), was calculated and demonstrated as an independent predictive indicator with a higher area under the curve (AUC) than each cytokine alone (p < 0.001). Besides the CCS, two high-risk stigmata features, the presence of solid component (PSC), and main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilation ≥10 mm were also demonstrated as independent indicators for predicting malignant IPMNs. Finally, a novel nomogram incorporating the CCS and these two high-risk stigmata features presented a remarkable diagnostic performance, both in the training and validation cohorts with AUCs of 0.928 and 0.873, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The CCS can be considered a novel independent predictive indicator for malignant IPMNs. Additionally, the formulated nomogram model integrating the CCS, PSC, and MPD ≥10 mm can be a valuable and promising tool for predicting the malignant transformation of IPMNs during long-term follow-ups to assist in timely and accurate surgical decisions.

Peak density of immature nerve cells occurs with high-grade dysplasia in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

The development of neural structures within tumors is now considered vital for carcinogenesis. However, the time course of this development in human pre-invasive neoplasia has been incompletely described. Therefore, we performed a detailed analysis of nerves across the neoplastic spectrum in resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas. Histology and multiplexed immunochemistry demonstrated that nerve density increased from low-grade (LG) to high-grade dysplasia (HG) but did not further increase once invasive IPMN (INV IPMN) was present. Higher nerve density correlated with increasing expression of nerve growth factor (NGF) by the tumor cells. Intra-tumoral nerves were immature and lacked markers of sympathetic, parasympathetic, and sensory lineages. Here, we show for the first time the presence of neural precursor cells (NPCs) within the stroma of pancreatic tumors. The density of these doublecortin (DCX)-positive NPCs increased from LG to HG, but not from HG to INV IPMN. We conclude that peak neural density of tumors is reached in high-grade dysplasia (often termed carcinoma in situ) rather than after invasion. These findings suggest that nerve-tumor interactions are important in IPMN progression and may serve as the basis for future mechanistic studies and novel therapeutic modalities. © 2022 The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Pancreatic Incidentaloma

Pancreatic incidentalomas (PIs) represent a clinical entity increasingly recognized due to advances in and easier access to imaging techniques. By definition, PIs should be detected during abdominal imaging performed for indications other than a pancreatic disease. They range from small cysts to invasive cancer. The incidental diagnosis of pancreatic cancer can contribute to early diagnosis and treatment. On the other hand, inadequate management of PIs may result in overtreatment and unneeded morbidity. Therefore, there is a strong need to evaluate the nature and clinical features of individual PIs. In this review, we summarize the major characteristics related to PIs and present suggestions for their management.

Diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance image for malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: the importance of size of enhancing mural nodule within cyst

PURPOSE

To investigate the clinical significance of enhancing mural nodules ≥ 5 mm by comparing the diagnostic performance of high-risk stigmata for diagnosing the malignant IPMN between the international consensus guideline (ICG) 2012 and 2017 in pancreatic magnetic resonance image (MRI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, we reviewed preoperative pancreatic MRI with surgically confirmed IPMNs between May 2009 and April 2021. High-risk stigmata, defined by ICG 2012 and ICG 2017, associated with malignant IPMN were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. We calculated and compared the sensitivity and specificity of ICG 2012 and ICG 2017 for diagnosing malignant IPMNs. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare ICG 2012 to ICG 2017.

RESULTS

A total of 73 patients (43 men and 30 women; mean age, 69 years; standard deviation, 8 years) with 34 malignant IPMNs and 39 benign IPMNs were included. Among high-risk stigmata, enhancing mural nodule ≥ 5 mm, and MPD diameter ≥ 10 mm were the significant predictor of malignant IPMN, in multivariate logistic regression (P < 0.001 for all). For the diagnosis of malignant IPMN, the specificity of ICG 2017 for enhancing mural nodules ≥ 5 mm as the high-risk stigmata was significantly higher than that of ICG 2012 (87.2% vs. 64.1%, P = 0.008). However, there was no significant difference in sensitivity between the two guidelines (94.1% vs. 97.1%, P = 1.0). The comparison of the ROC curves showed that the diagnostic performance of ICG 2017 for malignant IPMNs (AUC, 0.91) significantly improved when compared to that of ICG 2012 (AUC, 0.81) (P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

When applying enhancing mural nodule ≥ 5 mm as a high-risk stigmata, ICG 2017 provided a significantly higher specificity than ICG 2012 without a reduction in sensitivity.

Preoperative Predictive Features of Invasive Carcinoma Among Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas

OBJECTIVE

Noninvasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) theoretically do not metastasize. The purpose of this study is to preoperatively distinguish invasive carcinomas associated with IPMN from noninvasive IPMN.

METHODS

A total of 131 patients who underwent surgical resection for IPMN were retrospectively analyzed to identify the predictors of invasive carcinoma, based on the International Association of Pancreatology Consensus Guidelines.

RESULTS

Of the 131 patients, 29 (22%) had invasive carcinomas and 102 (78%) had noninvasive IPMN. An enhancing mural nodule (MN) greater than or equal to 5 mm, obstructive jaundice, an abrupt change in the caliber of the pancreatic duct (PD) with distal pancreatic atrophy, and lymphadenopathy were the significant predictors of invasive carcinoma in univariate analysis. The optimal cutoff value for the size of the enhancing MN to differentiate invasive carcinoma was 13 mm. In multivariate analysis, enhancing MN greater than or equal to 13 mm, obstructive jaundice, and an abrupt change in the PD caliber were the independent predictors. When all these factors were absent, only 17% were invasive carcinomas.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhancing MN greater than or equal to 13 mm, obstructive jaundice, and an abrupt change in the PD caliber were predictive factors for invasive carcinoma. Systematic lymph node dissection may be omitted when a high-risk patient has none of these factors.

Telomere Attrition in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas Associated With Carcinogenesis and Aging

OBJECTIVES

It is challenging to preoperatively distinguish malignant and benign forms of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas. The aims of this study were to investigate whether telomere length is associated with pathological grade of IPMNs and age and to clarify the utility of telomere length as a marker to identify malignant IPMNs.

METHODS

Pancreas tissue was obtained from 28 patients after resection. We measured the telomere lengths of tumor cells in IPMNs and normal duct cells by quantitative fluorescence in situ hybridization. The association of normalized telomere-centromere ratio (NTCR) to pathological grade of IPMNs and age were determined.

RESULTS

The NTCR showed a gradual decrease with increasing pathological grade of IPMNs. The NTCR in intermediate- and high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma lesions was significantly shorter than in normal pancreatic ducts (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, telomere length was most associated with carcinogenesis. When the cutoff value of NTCR was set to 0.74, the sensitivity for detection of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma was 82.8%, with a specificity of 87.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Telomere shortening occurs with carcinogenesis and aging. A significant reduction of telomere length in IPMNs may be useful for surgical decision making.

The Role of Diabetes Mellitus in the Malignant Pancreatic Cyst Neoplasm Diagnosis and Prognosis

Purpose

Pancreatic cyst neoplasm (PCN) is a precursor of pancreatic cancer. Previous studies reported PCN was often concurrent with diabetes. We aim to examine the association between diabetes with PCN malignancy and to detect the potential role of diabetes in PCN management and treatment.

Patients and Methods

A total of 224 patients who were diagnosed with the three major types of PCN (IPMN, MCN, and SCN) and underwent surgical resection were selected. Patients were divided into three groups (normal group, new-onset diabetes group (NODM) (<4years), and long-standing diabetes group (LSDM) (>4years)) according to diabetic history and diagnostic time interval. Diabetes, fast blood glucose level, HbA1c, and insulin resistance level were measured. Malignant PCN (mPCN) radiological features (worrisome features and high-risk stigmata) were analyzed. Pathological features (PCN type, dysplasia grade, tumor stage, and tumor volume) and immunohistology of Ki67 and SMAD4 were performed. Diagnostic efficacy of each variable was determined by the ROC curve. mPCN diagnosis was the main outcome in diagnostic prediction and overall survival as the glucose controlling outcome variables.

Results

Diabetes groups (NODM and LSDM) showed difference with the normal group in age, weight loss, malignancy, CA19-9 value, CEA value, Ki-67 value, tumor volume, pathological grade, and a lowered pancreatic fistula risk. NODM was related to insulin resistance, weight loss, and SMAD4 mutation. NODM (87.3%) and high insulin resistance rate (93.6%) significantly increased the sensitivity of radiological evidence-based mPCN diagnosis. Moreover, long-standing diabetes and elevated HbA1c led to reduced survival in mPCN patients than the normal PCN group. Anti-diabetic drugs showed limited influence on PCN malignancy and tumor volume.

Conclusion

NODM in PCN patients was associated with malignancy, insulin resistance, weight loss, and SMAD4 mutation. Prediabetic status and NODM diagnosis enhanced the diagnostic accuracy of radiological standards (worrisome features and high-risk stigmata). Stable glucose surveillance is necessary for mPCN patients’ survival.

Cystic Neoplasms of the Pancreas: Differential Diagnosis and Radiology Correlation

Although the probability of pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) being detected is raising year by year, their differential diagnosis and individualized treatment are still a challenge in clinical work. PCNs are tumors containing cystic components with different biological behaviors, and their clinical manifestations, epidemiology, imaging features, and malignant risks are different. Some are benign [e.g., serous cystic neoplasms (SCNs)], with a barely possible that turning into malignant, while others display a low or higher malignant risk [e.g., solid pseudopapillary neoplasms (SPNs), intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs), and mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCNs)]. PCN management should concentrate on preventing the progression of malignant tumors while preventing complications caused by unnecessary surgical intervention. Clinically, various advanced imaging equipment are usually combined to obtain a more reliable preoperative diagnosis. The challenge for clinicians and radiologists is how to accurately diagnose PCNs before surgery so that corresponding surgical methods and follow-up strategies can be developed or not, as appropriate. The objective of this review is to sum up the clinical features, imaging findings and management of the most common PCNs according to the classic literature and latest guidelines.

Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: Have IAP Consensus Guidelines Changed our Approach?: Results from a Multi-institutional Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the influence of consensus guidelines on the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) and the subsequent changes in pathologic outcomes.

BACKGROUND

Over time, multiple guidelines have been developed to identify high-risk IPMN. We hypothesized that the development and implementation of guidelines should have increased the percentage of resected IPMN with high-risk disease.

METHODS

Memorial Sloan-Kettering (MSK), Johns Hopkins (JH), and Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) databases were queried for resected IPMN (2000-2015). Patients were categorized into main-duct (MD-IPMN) versus branch-duct (BD-IPMN). Guideline-specific radiographic/endoscopic features were recorded. High-risk disease was defined as high-grade dysplasia/carcinoma. Fisher's exact test was used to detect differences between institutions. Logistic regression evaluated differences between time-points [preguidelines (pre-GL, before 2006), Sendai (SCG, 2006-2012), Fukuoka (FCG, after 2012)].

RESULTS

The study included 1210 patients. The percentage of BD-IPMN with ≥1 high-risk radiographic feature differed between centers (MSK 69%, JH 60%, MGH 45%; P < 0.001). In MD-IPMN cohort, the presence of radiographic features such as solid component and main pancreatic duct diameter ≥10 mm also differed (solid component: MSK 38%, JH 30%, MGH 18%; P < 0.001; duct ≥10 mm: MSK 49%, JH 32%, MGH 44%; P < 0.001). The percentage of high-risk disease on pathology, however, was similar between institutions (BD-IPMN: P = 0.36, MD-IPMN: P = 0.48). During the study period, the percentage of BD-IPMN resected with ≥1 high-risk feature increased (52% pre-GL vs 67% FCG; P = 0.005), whereas the percentage of high-risk disease decreased (pre-GL vs FCG: 30% vs 20%). For MD-IPMN, there was not a clear trend towards guideline adherence, and the rate of high-risk disease was similar over the time (pre-GL vs FCG: 69% vs 67%; P = 0.63).

CONCLUSION

Surgical management of IPMN based on radiographic criteria is variable between institutions, with similar percentages of high-risk disease. Over the 15-year study period, the rate of BD-IPMN resected with high-risk radiographic features increased; however, the rate of high-risk disease decreased. Better predictors are needed.

Ductal Dilatation of ≥5 mm in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm Should Trigger the Consideration for Pancreatectomy: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review of Resected Cases

Simple Summary

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) are common but difficult to manage since accurate tools for diagnosing malignancy are unavailable. This study evaluates the diagnostic value of main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter for detecting IPMN malignancy, using a meta-analysis of published data. The result suggests that malignancy is highly prevalent in IPMN with ductal dilatation of >5 mm.

Abstract

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) are common but difficult to manage since accurate tools for diagnosing malignancy are unavailable. This study tests the diagnostic value of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter for detecting IPMN malignancy using a meta-analysis of published data of resected IPMNs. Collected from a comprehensive literature search, the articles included in this analysis must report malignancy cases (high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and invasive carcinoma (IC)) and MPD diameter so that two MPD cut-offs could be created. The sensitivity, specificity, and odds ratios of the two cutoffs for predicting malignancy were calculated. A review of 1493 articles yielded 20 retrospective studies with 3982 resected cases. A cutoff of ≥5 mm is more sensitive than the ≥10 mm cutoff and has pooled sensitivity of 72.20% and 75.60% for classification of HGD and IC, respectively. Both MPD cutoffs of ≥5 mm and ≥10 mm were associated with malignancy (OR = 4.36 (95% CI: 2.82, 6.75) vs. OR = 3.18 (95% CI: 2.25, 4.49), respectively). The odds of HGD and IC for patients with MPD ≥5 mm were 5.66 (95% CI: 3.02, 10.62) and 7.40 (95% CI: 4.95, 11.06), respectively. OR of HGD and IC for MPD ≥10 mm cutoff were 4.36 (95% CI: 3.20, 5.93) and 4.75 (95% CI: 2.39, 9.45), respectively. IPMN with MPD of >5 mm could very likely be malignant. In selected IPMN patients, pancreatectomy should be considered when MPD is >5 mm.

Radiomic nomogram based on MRI to predict grade of branching type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a multicenter study

Background

Accurate diagnosis of high-grade branching type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is challenging in clinical setting. We aimed to construct and validate a nomogram combining clinical characteristics and radiomic features for the preoperative prediction of low and high-grade in BD-IPMNs.

Methods

Two hundred and two patients from three medical centers were enrolled. The high-grade BD-IPMN group comprised patients with high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma in BD-IPMN (n = 50). The training cohort comprised patients from the first medical center (n = 103), and the external independent validation cohorts comprised patients from the second and third medical centers (n = 48 and 51). Within 3 months prior to surgery, all patients were subjected to magnetic resonance examination. The volume of interest was delineated on T1-weighted (T1-w) imaging, T2-weighted (T2-w) imaging, and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (CET1-w) imaging, respectively, on each tumor slice. Quantitative image features were extracted using MITK software (G.E.). The Mann-Whitney U test or independent-sample t-test, and LASSO regression, were applied for data dimension reduction, after which a radiomic signature was constructed for grade assessment. Based on the training cohort, we developed a combined nomogram model incorporating clinical variables and the radiomic signature. Decision curve analysis (DCA), a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), a calibration curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the utility of the constructed model based on the external independent validation cohorts.

Results

To predict tumor grade, we developed a nine-feature-combined radiomic signature. For the radiomic signature, the AUC values of high-grade disease were 0.836 in the training cohort, 0.811 in external validation cohort 1, and 0.822 in external validation cohort 2. The CA19–9 level and main pancreatic duct size were identified as independent parameters of high-grade of BD-IPMNs using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The CA19–9 level and main pancreatic duct size were then used to construct the radiomic nomogram. Using the radiomic nomogram, the high-grade disease-associated AUC values were 0.903 (training cohort), 0.884 (external validation cohort 1), and 0.876 (external validation cohort 2). The clinical utility of the developed nomogram was verified using the calibration curve and DCA.

Conclusions

The developed radiomic nomogram model could effectively distinguish high-grade patients with BD-IPMNs preoperatively. This preoperative identification might improve treatment methods and promote personalized therapy in patients with BD-IPMNs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-021-00395-6.

Significance of Uncinate Duct Dilatation in IPMNs: A New High-risk Criterion?

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the significance of UDD in IPMNs.

BACKGROUND

The uncinate process of the pancreas has an independent ductal drainage system. International consensus guidelines of IPMNs still consider it as a branch-duct, even though it is the main drainage system for the uncinate process.

METHODS

A retrospective review of all surgically treated IPMNs at our institution after 2008 was performed. Preoperative radiological studies were reviewed by an abdominal radiologist who was blinded to the pathological results. In addition to the Fukuoka criteria, presence of UDD was recorded. Using multivariate analysis, the pathological significance of UDD in predicting advanced neoplasia [high grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma (HGD/IC)] was determined.

RESULTS

Two hundred sixty patients were identified (mean age at diagnosis was 68 years and 49% were females): 122 (47%) had HGD/IC. UDD was noted in 59 (23%), of which 36 (61%) had HGD/IC (P < 0.003). On multivariate analysis, UDD was an independent predictor of HGD/IC (odds ratio = 2.99, P < 0.04). Subgroup analysis on patients with IPMNs confined to the dorsal portion of the gland (n = 161), also demonstrated UDD to be a significant predictor of HGD/IC in those remote lesions (odds ratio: 4.41, P = 0.039).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the largest study to evaluate the significance of UDD in IPMNs and shows it to be a high-risk feature. This association persisted for remote IPMNs limited to the dorsal pancreas, suggesting UDD may be associated with an aggressive phenotype even in remote IPMN lesions.

Validation of the clinical utility of 4 guidelines in the initial triage of mucinous cystic lesions of the pancreas based on cross-sectional imaging: Experience with 188 surgically-treated patients

INTRODUCTION

Over the years, several guidelines have been introduced to guide management of mucinous pancreatic cystic neoplasms (mPCN). In this study, we aimed to evaluate and compare the clinically utility of the Sendai-06, Fukuoka-12, Fukuoka-17 and European-18 guidelines in predicting malignancy of mPCN.

METHODS

One hundred and eighty-eight patients with mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCN) or intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) who underwent surgery were retrospectively reviewed and classified under the 4 guidelines. Malignancy was defined as high grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma.

RESULTS

Raised CA19-9>37U/ml, enhancing mural nodule≥5 mm and main pancreatic duct≥10 mm were significantly associated with malignancy on multivariate analysis. Increasing number of high risk features, absolute indications (European-18), worrisome risk or relative indications (European-18) were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of malignancy. The positive predictive values (PPV) of high risk features for Sendai-06, Fukuoka-12, Fukuoka-17 and absolute indications (European-18) for malignancy were 53%, 76%, 78% and 78% respectively. The negative predictive values (NPV) of the Sendai-06, Fukuoka-12 and Fukuoka-17 were 100%, while that of the European-18 was 92%. Risk of malignancy for patients with ≥4 worrisome features (Fukuoka-17) and ≥3 relative indications (European-18) was 66.7% and 75.0% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

All 4 guidelines studied were useful in the initial triage of mPCN for the risk stratification of malignancy. The Fukuoka-17 had the highest PPV and NPV.

Multiphase computed tomography radiomics of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms to predict malignancy

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are non-invasive pancreatic precursor lesions that can potentially develop into invasive pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Currently, the International Consensus Guidelines (ICG) for IPMNs provides the basis for evaluating suspected IPMNs on computed tomography (CT) imaging. Despite using the ICG, it remains challenging to accurately predict whether IPMNs harbor high grade or invasive disease which would warrant surgical resection. A supplementary quantitative radiological tool, radiomics, may improve diagnostic accuracy of radiological evaluation of IPMNs. We hypothesized that using CT whole lesion radiomics features in conjunction with the ICG could improve the diagnostic accuracy of predicting IPMN histology.

AIM

To evaluate whole lesion CT radiomic analysis of IPMNs for predicting malignant histology compared to International Consensus Guidelines.

METHODS

Fifty-one subjects who had pancreatic surgical resection at our institution with histology demonstrating IPMN and available preoperative CT imaging were included in this retrospective cohort. Whole lesion semi-automated segmentation was performed on each preoperative CT using Healthmyne software (Healthmyne, Madison, WI). Thirty-nine relevant radiomic features were extracted from each lesion on each available contrast phase. Univariate analysis of the 39 radiomics features was performed for each contrast phase and values were compared between malignant and benign IPMN groups using logistic regression. Conventional quantitative and qualitative CT measurements were also compared between groups, via χ² (categorical) and Mann Whitney U (continuous) variables.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine subjects (15 males, age 71 ± 9 years) with high grade or invasive tumor histology comprised the "malignant" cohort, while 22 subjects (11 males, age 70 ± 7 years) with low grade tumor histology were included in the "benign" cohort. Radiomic analysis showed 18/39 precontrast, 19/39 arterial phase, and 21/39 venous phase features differentiated malignant from benign IPMNs (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis including only ICG criteria yielded two significant variables: thickened and enhancing cyst wall and enhancing mural nodule < 5 mm with an AUC (95%CI) of 0.817 (0.709-0.926). Multivariable post contrast radiomics achieved an AUC (95%CI) of 0.87 (0.767-0.974) for a model including arterial phase radiomics features and 0.834 (0.716-0.953) for a model including venous phase radiomics features. Combined multivariable model including conventional variables and arterial phase radiomics features achieved an AUC (95%CI) of 0.93 (0.85-1.0) with a 5-fold cross validation AUC of 0.90.

CONCLUSION

Multi-phase CT radiomics evaluation could play a role in improving predictive capability in diagnosing malignancy in IPMNs. Future larger studies may help determine the clinical significance of our findings.

Multimodal radiomics and cyst fluid inflammatory markers model to predict preoperative risk in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Purpose: Our paper contributes to the burgeoning field of surgical data science. Specifically, multimodal integration of relevant patient data is used to determine who should undergo a complex pancreatic resection. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) represent cystic precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer with varying risk for malignancy. We combine previously defined individual models of radiomic analysis of diagnostic computed tomography (CT) with protein markers extracted from the cyst fluid to create a unified prediction model to identify high-risk IPMNs. Patients with high-risk IPMN would be sent for resection, whereas patients with low-risk cystic lesions would be spared an invasive procedure. Approach: Retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired cyst fluid and CT scans was undertaken for this study. A predictive model combining clinical features with a cyst fluid inflammatory marker (CFIM) was applied to patient data. Quantitative imaging (QI) features describing radiomic patterns predictive of risk were extracted from scans. The CFIM model and QI model were combined into a single predictive model. An additional model was created with tumor-associated neutrophils (TANs) assessed by a pathologist at the time of resection. Results: Thirty-three patients were analyzed (7 high risk and 26 low risk). The CFIM model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74. Adding the QI model improved performance with an AUC of 0.88. Combining the CFIM, QI, and TAN models further increased performance to an AUC of 0.98. Conclusions: Quantitative analysis of routinely acquired CT scans combined with CFIMs provides accurate prediction of risk of pancreatic cancer progression. Although a larger cohort is needed for validation, this model represents a promising tool for preoperative assessment of IPMN.

An integrated analysis of host- and tumor-derived markers for predicting high-grade dysplasia and associated invasive carcinoma of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

PURPOSE

To clarify the usefulness of cancer-related inflammation, hypermetabolism, and subsequent host malnutrition biomarkers for predicting the histological grades of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas (IPMNs).

METHODS

The systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) on fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography were compared across 171 resected IPMN cases of different histological grades. The diagnostic performance of each marker and of their combinations for predicting IPMN with high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/associated invasive carcinoma (INV) was also tested.

RESULTS

Of the 171 IPMNs, the IPMN cases with HGD showed significantly higher values of SII (median 406 vs. 340; P = 0.041) and SUVmax (median 2.5 vs. 2.0; P = 0.001) than those with low-grade dysplasia (LGD). On a multivariate analysis, the SII and SUVmax were both independent markers for predicting HGD/INV. A combination analysis including the tumor- and host-derived markers in combination with imaging findings showed an improved diagnostic performance (area under the curve 0.824; sensitivity 75.9%; specificity 80.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of multiple markers of host-derived inflammation and tumor-derived focal hypermetabolism can serve as a predictor for the presence of HGD/INV.

Usefulness of septal thickness measurement on endoscopic ultrasound as a predictor of malignancy of branched-duct and mixed-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Septal thickness (ST) can predict a malignant branch-duct (BD) and mixed-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas, but its cut-off value has not been established. The aim of the present study was to determine the optimal ST cut-off value to predict malignancy using endoscopic ultrasound (EUS).

METHODS

We retrospectively identified 200 patients with IPMN, including 132 with BD- and mixed-IPMN, who underwent surgical resection between 1989 and 2017. ST was defined as the septum or lesion wall with the maximum diameter in BD- and mixed-IPMN. The possibility of ST as a malignant predictor was examined, as well as the diagnostic ability of ST combined with mural nodule (MN) height for malignant IPMN.

RESULTS

Among the 132 IPMN patients, pathological diagnosis was benign in 81 (61.4%) and malignant in 51 (38.6%). Area under the curve for the diagnosis of malignancy using ST was 0.74 for pathological specimens, 0.70 for EUS and 0.56 for computed tomography. Multivariate analysis showed that the odds ratios for ST ≥2.5 mm and MN height ≥5 mm were 3.51 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.55-7.97, P = 0.003] and 3.36 (95% CI, 1.52-7.45, P = 0.003), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Septal thickness was an independent predictive factor similar to MN height for malignant IPMN in a multivariate analysis. The ST on EUS appeared to be the thickness of a fibrotic septum associated with the malignant transformation of IPMN. An ST cut-off value of 2.5 mm might provide an accurate prediction of malignant IPMN.

Multi-institutional Validation Study of Pancreatic Cyst Fluid Protein Analysis for Prediction of High-risk Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas

OBJECTIVE

Preliminary work by our group suggested that proteins within the pancreatic cyst fluid (CF) may discriminate degree of IPMN dysplasia. We sought to externally validate these markers and determine whether their inclusion in a preoperative clinical nomogram could increase diagnostic accuracy.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

IPMN is the most common radiographically identifiable precursor to pancreatic cancer; however, the timing and frequency of its malignant progression are unknown, and there are currently no reliable preoperative tests that can determine the grade of dysplasia in IPMN.

METHODS

Clinical and radiographic data, as well as CF samples, were obtained from 149 patients who underwent resection for IPMN at 1 of 3 institutions. High-risk disease was defined as the presence of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. Multianalyte bead array analysis (Luminex) of CF was performed for 4 protein markers that were previously associated with high-risk disease. Logistic regression models were fit on training data, with and without adjustment for a previously developed clinical nomogram and validated with an external testing set. The models incorporating clinical risk score were presented graphically as nomograms.

RESULTS

Within the group of 149 resected patients, 89 (60%) had low-risk disease, and 60 (40%) had high-risk disease. All 4 CF markers (MMP9, CA72-4, sFASL, and IL-4) were overexpressed in patients with high-risk IPMN (P < 0.05). Two predictive models based on preselected combinations of CF markers had concordance indices of 0.76 (Model-1) and 0.80 (Model-2). Integration of each CF marker model into a previously described clinical nomogram leads to increased discrimination compared with either the CF models or nomogram alone (c-indices of 0.84 and 0.83, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This multi-institutional study validated 2 CF protein marker models for preoperative identification of high-risk IPMN. When combined with a clinical nomogram, the ability to predict high-grade dysplasia was even stronger.

Determining Malignant Potential of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: CT versus MRI by Using Revised 2017 International Consensus Guidelines

Background Several changes have been made to the revised 2017 international consensus guidelines for management of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). However, the diagnostic performance is yet to be verified. Purpose To evaluate the revised guidelines for predicting malignant potential of pancreatic IPMNs and to compare diagnostic performance and intermodality agreement between contrast material-enhanced CT and MRI. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, two radiologists analyzed the preoperative contrast-enhanced CT and MRI of patients with surgically resected pancreatic IPMNs from January 2007 to December 2017. The diagnostic performance of CT and MRI were analyzed by using receiver operating curve analysis. Intermodality agreement was assessed by using weighted κ and intraclass correlation coefficient values. Results A total of 86 patients (mean age, 67.6 years ± 8.9 [standard deviation]; 47 men and 39 women) with pancreatic IPMNs (benign, 58; malignant, 28) were included. At both CT and MRI, enhancing mural nodule (P < .001), abrupt main pancreatic duct caliber change (P < .001), lymphadenopathy (P = .006), larger main pancreatic duct size (P = .003), and faster cyst growth rate (P = .04) were more common in malignant than benign IPMNs. Irrespective of the modality, enhancing mural nodule of 5 mm or greater had the highest odds ratio (25 at CT vs 29 at MRI). The diagnostic performance of CT (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.83 [95% confidence interval: 0.75, 0.92]) and MRI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.86 [95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.95]) for predicting malignant IPMNs were comparable (P = .43), with good intermodality agreement (κ = 0.70). Conclusion Among revised features, enhancing mural nodule of 5 mm or greater had the strongest association with malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), and diagnostic performance for prediction of malignant IPMNs were comparable between contrast-enhanced CT and MRI with good intermodality agreement. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Clinical validation of the 2017 international consensus guidelines on intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas

Purpose

The 2017 international consensus guidelines (ICG) for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas were recently released. Important changes included the addition of worrisome features such as elevated serum CA 19-9 and rapid cyst growth (>5 mm over 2 years). We aimed to clinically validate the 2017 ICG and compare the diagnostic performance between the 2017 and 2012 ICG.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study. During January 2000–January 2017, patients who underwent complete surgical resection and had pathologic confirmation of branch-duct or mixed-type IPMN were included. To evaluate diagnostic performance, the areas under the receiver operating curves (AUCs) were evaluated.

Results

A total of 448 patients were included. The presence of mural nodule (hazard ratio [HR], 9.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.60–18.09; P = 0.001), main pancreatic duct dilatation (>5 mm) (HR, 5.32; 95% CI, 2.67–10.60; P = 0.001), thickened cystic wall (HR, 3.40; 95% CI, 1.51–7.63; P = 0.003), and elevated CA 19-9 level (>37 unit/mL) (HR, 5.25; 95% CI, 2.05–13.42; P = 0.001) were significantly associated with malignant IPMN. Malignant lesions showed a cyst growth rate >5 mm over 2 years more frequently than benign lesions (60.9% vs. 29.7%, P = 0.012). The AUC was higher for the 2017 ICG than the 2012 ICG (0.784 vs. 0.746).

Conclusion

The new 2017 ICG for IPMN is clinically valid, with a superior diagnostic performance to the 2012 ICG. The inclusion of elevated serum CA 19-9 level and cyst growth rate to the 2017 ICG is appropriate.

Blood Type as a Predictor of High-Grade Dysplasia and Associated Malignancy in Patients with Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are precursor lesions to the development of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. We determined if non-O blood groups are more common in patients with IPMN and if blood group is a risk factor for progression to invasive pancreatic cancer among patients with IPMN.

METHODS

The medical records were reviewed of all patients undergoing resection of an IPMN at Johns Hopkins Hospital from June 1997 to August 2016. Potential risk factors of high-grade dysplasia and associated adenocarcinoma were identified through a multivariate logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Seven hundred and seventy-seven patients underwent surgical resection of an IPMN in which preoperative blood type was known. Sixty-two percent of IPMN patients had non-O blood groups (vs. 57% in two large US reference cohorts, P = 0.002). The association between non-O blood group was significant for patients with IPMN with low- or intermediate-grade dysplasia (P < 0.001), not for those with high-grade dysplasia (P = 0.68). Low- and intermediate-grade IPMNs were more likely to have non-type O blood compared to those with high-grade IPMN and/or associated invasive adenocarcinoma (P = 0.045). Blood type O was an independent predictor of having high-grade dysplasia without associated adenocarcinoma (P = 0.02), but not having associated invasive cancer (P = 0.72). The main risk factor for progression to invasive cancer after surgical resection was IPMN with high-grade dysplasia (P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

IPMN patients are more likely to have non-O blood groups than controls, but type O blood group carriers had higher odds of having high-grade dysplasia in their IPMN. These results indicate blood group status may have different effects on the risk and progression of IPMNs.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Impact of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas With High-Grade Dysplasia and Associated Invasive Carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic impact of systemic inflammatory markers for IPMN with high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/invasive carcinoma.

METHODS

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived NLR, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio were compared across the different histological grades of 205 IPMN cases. We also tested the diagnostic performance for IPMN with HGD/invasive carcinoma.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) preoperative NLR was higher in IPMN with HGD/invasive carcinoma (2.03 [1.48-2.93]) than IPMN with low-grade dysplasia (1.74 [1.42-2.24], P = 0.0137). The C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio and derived NLR values were also significant higher in cases with HGD/invasive carcinoma. A combination assay of NLR, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 revealed a 58.8% sensitivity and 76.8% specificity. Among the cases with worrisome features, the high NLR values increased the positive predictive value (68.8%) compared with low values (31.8%). In IPMN cases with the associated invasive carcinoma, high NLR values showed association with the deeper vertical invasion and shorter survival periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative NLR, combined with tumor markers and image findings, can be a useful predictive marker for the presence of HGD/invasive carcinoma in IPMNs. Preoperative NLR also predicts the long-term outcomes in IPMN cases with invasive carcinoma.

Prognostic influence of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration in IPMN-derived invasive adenocarcinoma

Background

Endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) for mucinous cystic neoplasm of the pancreas carries a potential risk of inducing peritoneal tumor cell dissemination. We investigated the diagnostic yield and safety of EUS-FNA-based cytology of cells obtained from the pancreatic invasion site of intraductal papillary-mucinous neoplasm-derived adenocarcinoma (IPMC).

Methods

We included 22 surgically resected IPMCs and 84 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs). Among the IPMC cases, 14 did not undergo EUS-FNA before surgical resection. The diagnostic yield of EUS-FNA was compared between IPMC and PDAC. Additionally, prognosis (relapse-free and overall survival time after resection) and the rate of peritoneal dissemination were compared among IPMC with EUS-FNA, IPMC without EUS-FNA, and PDAC. A survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test.

Results

(EUS-FNA diagnosis) There were no significant differences in the number of needle passages (PDAC 2.5 vs. IPMC 2.0 passages, P = 0.84) or puncture route (stomach/duodenum: 2/6 vs. 45/39, P = 0.29). However, the correct diagnosis rate was significantly higher in PDAC (92.9%) than in IPMC (62.5%) (P = 0.03). No procedure-related adverse events occurred. Peritoneal lavage cytology performed during the operation was negative in all cases. (Prognosis) Among IPMC with EUS-FNA, IPMC without EUS-FNA, and PDAC, there were no significant differences in relapse-free survival (21.0 vs. 22.4 vs. 12.5 months, respectively; P = 0.64) or overall survival time (35.5 vs. 53.1 vs. 35.9 months, respectively; P = 0.42), and peritoneal dissemination was detected during the observation period in 25%, 28.5%, and 21.4% cases, respectively (P = 0.82).

Conclusion

Even though a correct diagnosis was more difficult to obtain in IPMC than in PDAC, IPMC allows specimens to be obtained without influencing the rate of recurrence and prognosis.

Current Guideline Controversies in the Management of Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms

Pancreatic cystic lesions are a common clinical entity. The majority are neoplastic and have the potential for malignant transformation. To assist with patient management, a number of clinical guidelines have been developed over the past decade. However, controversies exist in regards to the various guidelines and treatment strategies they offer. This article will review the various clinical guidelines for management of pancreatic cysts, describe the limitations of these guidelines, and present future directions for improvement in clinical decision making for patients diagnosed with a pancreatic cystic neoplasm.

The validity of the surgical indication for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas advocated by the 2017 revised International Association of Pancreatology consensus guidelines

PURPOSE

This study was performed to evaluate the surgical indication for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) advocated by the 2017 revised International Association of Pancreatology consensus guidelines (IAPCG2017).

METHODS

The medical records of 63 patients who underwent pancreatectomy for IPMN were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

Thirteen patients had main-duct IPMN, 25 had mixed IPMN, and 25 had branch-duct IPMN with frequencies of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma of 62, 24, and 28%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of high-risk stigmata for high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma advocated by the IAPCG2017 were 90 and 67%, respectively. Of 17 patients with invasive carcinoma, all patients had high-risk stigmata, and 16 had an enhanced mural nodule (MN) of ≥ 5 mm. The sensitivity and specificity of a ≥ 5-mm enhanced MN for predicting invasive carcinoma were 94% and 87%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing a size threshold for enhanced MNs into the assessment of high-risk stigmata increases the specificity without jeopardizing the sensitivity. The surgical indication for any type of IPMN may be determined using only a ≥ 5-mm enhanced MN. When the type of IPMN is classified strictly, about half of IPMNs are mixed type, and most are benign. The surgical indication for mixed IPMN should be reconsidered.

Systematic review of the clinical utility and validity of the Sendai and Fukuoka Consensus Guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

This systematic review was performed to assess the clinical utility of the Sendai Consensus Guidelines (SCG) and Fukuoka Consensus Guidelines (FCG) for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN).

METHODS

A computerized search of PubMed was performed to identify all the studies which evaluated the SCG and FCG in surgically resected, histologically confirmed IPMNs.

RESULTS

Ten studies evaluating the FCG, 8 evaluating the SCG and 4 evaluating both guidelines were included. In 14 studies evaluating the FCG, out of a total of 2498 neoplasms, 849 were malignant and 1649 were benign neoplasms. Pooled analysis showed that 751 of 1801 (42%) FCG+ve neoplasms were malignant and 599 neoplasms of 697 (86%) FCG-ve neoplasms were benign. PPV of the high risk and worrisome risk groups were 465/986 (47%) and 239/520 (46%) respectively. In 12 studies evaluating the SCG, 1234 neoplasms were analyzed of which 388 (31%) were malignant and 846 (69%) were benign. Pooled analysis demonstrated that 265 of 802 (33%) SCG+ve neoplasms were malignant and 238 of 266 SCG-ve (90%) neoplasms were benign.

CONCLUSION

The FCG had a higher positive predictive value (PPV) compared to the SCG. However, the negative predictive value (NPV) of the FCG was slightly lower than that of the SCG. Malignant and even invasive IPMN may be missed according to both guidelines.

Surgical management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm with main duct involvement: an international expert survey and case-vignette study

BACKGROUND

The risk of invasive cancer in resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm with main pancreatic duct involvement is 33%-60%. Most guidelines, therefore, advise resection of main duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and mixed type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm in surgically fit patients, although advice on the surgical strategy (partial or total pancreatectomy) differs. We performed a survey amongst international experts to guide the design of future studies and help to prepare for a single international set of guidelines.

METHODS

An online survey including case vignettes was sent to 221 international experts who had published on main duct/mixed type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm in the previous decade and to all surgeon and gastroenterologist members of the pancreatic cyst guideline committees of the European Study Group and the International Association of Pancreatology.

RESULTS

Overall, 97 experts (67 surgeons, 30 gastroenterologists) from 19 countries replied (44% response rate). Most (93%) worked in an academic hospital, with a median of 15 years' experience with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm treatment. In main duct/mixed type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm patients with pancreatic duct dilation (>5 mm) in the entire pancreas, 41% (n = 37) advised nonoperative surveillance every 3-6 months, whereas 59% (n = 54) advised operative intervention. Of those who advised operative intervention, 46% (n = 25) would perform a total pancreatectomy and 31% (n = 17) pancreatoduodenectomy with follow-up. No structural differences in advice were seen between surgeons and gastroenterologists, between continents where the respondents lived, and based on years of experience.

CONCLUSION

This international survey identified a clinically relevant lack of consensus in the treatment strategy in main duct/mixed type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm among experts. Studies with long-term follow-up including quality of life after partial and total pancreatectomy for main duct/mixed type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm are required.

Evaluation of the International Consensus Guidelines for the Surgical Resection of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

BACKGROUND

International consensus guidelines for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) were revised in 2012.

AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of each predictor in the 2006 and 2012 guidelines and validate the diagnostic value and surgical indications.

METHODS

Forty-two patients with surgically resected IPMNs were included. Each predictor was applied to evaluate its diagnostic value.

RESULTS

The 2012 guidelines had greater accuracy for invasive carcinoma than the 2006 guidelines (64.3 vs. 31.0%). Moreover, the accuracy for high-grade dysplasia was also increased (48.6 vs. 77.1%). When the main pancreatic duct (MPD) size ≥8 mm was substituted for MPD size ≥10 mm in the 2012 guidelines, the accuracy for high-grade dysplasia was 80.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2012 guidelines exhibited increased diagnostic accuracy for invasive IPMN. It is important to consider surgical resection prior to invasive carcinoma, and high-risk stigmata might be a useful diagnostic criterion. Furthermore, MPD size ≥8 mm may be predictive of high-grade dysplasia.

The 2012 International Consensus Guidelines of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas (Fukuoka Criteria) Predict the Malignant Potential, Even in Actual Clinical Situations

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present study was to validate the use of the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) (Fukuoka criteria) in patients without findings of obstructive jaundice and/or an enhanced solid component.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients who underwent pancreatectomy for IPMN between October 2002 and September 2016. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for malignancy were calculated for each feature of high-risk stigmata.

RESULTS

Of the 135 patients who underwent surgery for IPMN, 50 (37.0%) had low/intermediate-grade dysplasia, 25 (18.5%) had high-grade dysplasia, and the remaining 60 (44.5%) had invasive carcinoma. A malignant potential was, thus, present in 63% of all resected cases. Considering an actual clinical situation, the predictors for malignant potential were assessed in 62 patients without findings of obstructive jaundice and/or an enhanced solid component. A multivariate analysis revealed that the Fukuoka criteria were the only independent factor for predicting the malignant potential (odds ratio, 5.69; P = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggested that malignant potential can be accurately detected by faithfully keeping to the Fukuoka criteria. Using these criteria enables us to identify patients with malignant potential, even in the actual clinical situations.

Systematic review, meta-analysis, and a high-volume center experience supporting the new role of mural nodules proposed by the updated 2017 international guidelines on IPMN of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

Mural nodules (MNs) have a predominant role in the 2016 revision of the international guidelines on intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas. The aim of this study was to evaluate MNs as predictors of invasive cancer (iCa) or high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in IPMNs and to investigate the role of MN size in risk prediction.

METHODS

A PRISMA-compliant systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis on selected studies were conducted. The random effect model was adopted, and the pooled SMD (standardized mean difference) obtained. The surgical series of IPMNs at a single high-volume institution was reviewed.

RESULTS

This review included 70 studies and 2297 resected IPMNs. MNs have a positive predictive value for malignancy of 62.2%. The meta-analysis suggested that MN size has a considerable effect on predicting IPMNs with both iCa or HGD with a mean SMD of 0.79. All studies included in the meta-analysis used contrast-enhanced endosonography (CE-EUS) to assess MNs. Due to the heterogeneity of the proposed thresholds, no reliable MN size cut-off was identified. Of 317 IPMNs resected at our institution, 102 (32.1%) had a preoperative diagnosis of MN. Multivariate analysis showed that MN is the only independent predictor of iCa and HGD for all types of IPMNs.

CONCLUSION

MNs are reliable predictors of iCa and HGD in IPMNs as proposed by the 2016 IAP guidelines. CE-EUS seems to be the best tool for characterizing size and has the best accuracy for predicting malignancy. Further studies should determine potential MN dimensional cut-offs.

Predictive performance of factors associated with malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia of the pancreas

Background

Estimation of the risk of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN) of the pancreas is a clinical challenge. Several routinely used clinical factors form the basis of the current consensus guidelines. This study aimed to determine the predictive values of the most commonly assessed risk factors.

Methods

A meta-analysis of individual risk factors of malignancy in IPMN was performed. Contingency tables were derived from these data, and sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) were determined. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curves for each factor were calculated and the respective area under the curve (AUC) was assessed.

Results

A total of 3443 studies were screened initially. Analysis of recent literature revealed 60 studies with 13 relevant risk factors including clinical, serological and radiological parameters. The largest area under the HSROC curve was found for weight loss (0·84) and jaundice/raised bilirubin level (0·80), followed by increased carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (0·79) or carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 (0·78) levels. The most sensitive factors were patient age (71 per cent) and mural nodules (65 per cent), and jaundice/raised bilirubin level (97 per cent) and increased CEA level (95 per cent) were most specific. None of the analysed factors reached a positive or negative level of prediction beyond 90 per cent.

Conclusion

None of the established criteria safely distinguishes malignant from non-malignant lesions.

Natural history of pancreatic cystic lesions: A multicenter prospective observational study for evaluating the risk of pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The aim of this study is to elucidate the natural history of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs), including branch duct-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN), via midterm follow-up analysis of a multicenter prospective observational study (NSPINAL study).

METHODS

From July 2011 to October 2016, 881 patients with PCLs were enrolled in NSPINAL study, and 664 patients with > 12 months of follow up were analyzed. Every patient was asymptomatic, and endoscopic ultrasound was performed at the initial diagnosis to exclude high-risk individuals. Follow up included endoscopic ultrasound, computed tomography, or magnetic resonance imaging at least once a year. Serial morphological changes and the pancreatic cancer (PC) incidence, including malignant progression of PCLs, were evaluated.

RESULTS

The 664 patients (358 men) were followed for a median of 33.5 months (interquartile range 29). The cyst and main pancreatic duct sizes were 16.6 ± 9.3 and 2.3 ± 1.0 mm, respectively. Morphologically, 518 cases were multilocular, 137 were unilocular, and 9 had a honeycomb pattern; 269 cases involved multifocal lesions. Ninety-six patients (14.5%) showed worsening progression on imaging. There were two resectable and four unresectable cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and three cases of malignant BD-IPMN. The 3-year risk of developing PC was 1.2%. The standardized incidence ratio for PC among PCLs was 10.0 (95% confidence interval 3.5-16.5), and the standardized incidence ratio among BD-IPMN was 16.6 (95% confidence interval 5.1-28.1). Multivariate analysis showed that development of symptoms and worsening progression were significant predictors of PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Malignant progression of PCLs, including PC development, is not uncommon. Patients with PCLs should be carefully monitored to detect pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma at early stages.

Simple Detection of Telomere Fusions in Pancreatic Cancer, Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm, and Pancreatic Cyst Fluid

Telomere end-to-end fusions are an important source of chromosomal instability that arise in cells with critically shortened telomeres. We developed a nested real-time quantitative PCR method for telomere fusion detection in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs), and IPMN cyst fluids. Ninety-one pancreatic cancer cell lines and xenograft samples, 93 IPMNs, and 93 surgically aspirated IPMN cyst fluid samples were analyzed. The association between telomere shortening, telomerase activity, and telomere fusion detection was evaluated. Telomere fusions were detected in 56 of 91 pancreatic cancers (61.5%). Telomere fusion-positive cell lines had significantly shorter telomere lengths than fusion-negative lines (P = 0.003). Telomere fusions were undetectable in normal pancreas or IPMNs with low-grade dysplasia (0.0%) and were detected in IPMN with high-grade dysplasia (HGD; 48.0%) (P < 0.001). In IPMN cyst fluids, telomere fusions were more frequent in IPMNs with HGD (26.9%) or associated invasive cancer (42.9%) than IPMN with intermediate-grade dysplasia (15.4%) or low-grade dysplasia (0%) (P = 0.025). Telomerase activity levels were higher in cyst fluids with fusions than in those without (P = 0.0414). Cyst fluid telomere fusion status was an independent predictor of HGD/invasive cancer by multivariate analysis (odds ratio, 6.23; 95% CI, 1.61-28.0). Telomere fusions are detected in later stages of IPMN progression and can serve as a marker for predicting the presence of HGD and/or invasive cancer.

Diagnostic accuracy of diffusion restriction in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas in comparison with "high-risk stigmata" of the 2012 international consensus guidelines for prediction of the malignancy and invasiveness

Background It is debated whether diagnostic performance of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), which is widely used for detection and characterization of various malignant tumors, is comparable with high-risk stigmata of 2012 international consensus guidelines (ICG) for diagnosis of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Purpose To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of diffusion restriction in IPMNs for prediction of malignancy and invasiveness in comparison with high-risk stigmata of 2012 ICG. Material and Methods This retrospective study was institutional review board approved and informed consent was waived. A total of 132 patients with surgically proven IPMNs (49 malignant, 83 benign) who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and DWI with a b-value of 0, 100, and 800 s/mm² using a 3.0 T MR system were included. Two radiologists independently evaluated imaging parameters of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features of 2012 ICG and diffusion restriction in IPMNs. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and McNemar's test were used for statistical analysis. Results The presence of diffusion restriction in IPMNs was the only independent imaging parameter for prediction of malignancy (odds ratio [OR], 11.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.60-39.87; P < 0.001) and invasiveness (OR, 17.92; 95% CI, 3.91-82.03; P < 0.001) on multivariate analysis. The diagnostic accuracy and specificity of diffusion restriction were significantly improved compared to high-risk stigmata of 2012 ICG to prediction of malignant ( P = 0.006 and P < 0.001, respectively) or invasive IPMNs ( P = 0.009 and P = 0.015, respectively). Conclusion The diffusion restriction in IPMNs could be considered as another high-risk stigma of malignancy and predictor for invasiveness.

Comparison of the diagnostic accuracy of three current guidelines for the evaluation of asymptomatic pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Asymptomatic pancreatic cysts are a common clinical problem but only a minority of these cases progress to cancer. Our aim was to compare the accuracy to detect malignancy of the 2015 American Gastroenterological Association (AGA), the 2012 International Consensus/Fukuoka (Fukuoka guidelines [FG]), and the 2010 American College of Radiology (ACR) guidelines.We conducted a retrospective study at 3 referral centers for all patients who underwent resection for an asymptomatic pancreatic cyst between January 2008 and December 2013. We compared the accuracy of 3 guidelines in predicting high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or cancer in resected cysts. We performed logistic regression analyses to examine the association between cyst features and risk of HGD or cancer.A total of 269 patients met inclusion criteria. A total of 228 (84.8%) had a benign diagnosis or low-grade dysplasia on surgical pathology, and 41 patients (15.2%) had either HGD (n = 14) or invasive cancer (n = 27). Of the 41 patients with HGD or cancer on resection, only 3 patients would have met the AGA guideline's indications for resection based on the preoperative cyst characteristics, whereas 30/41 patients would have met the FG criteria for resection and 22/41 patients met the ACR criteria. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value of HGD, and/or cancer of the AGA guidelines were 7.3%, 88.2%, 10%, and 84.1%, compared to 73.2%, 45.6%, 19.5%, and 90.4% for the FG and 53.7%, 61%, 19.8%, and 88% for the ACR guidelines. In multivariable analysis, cyst size >3 cm, compared to ≤3 cm, (odds ratio [OR] = 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11, 4.2) and each year increase in age (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03, 1.11) were positively associated with risk of HGD or cancer on resection.In patients with asymptomatic branch duct-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms or mucinous cystic neoplasms who underwent resection, the prevalence rate of HGD or cancer was 15.2%. Using the 2015 AGA criteria for resection would have missed 92.6% of patients with HGD or cancer. The more "inclusive" FG and ACR had a higher sensitivity for HGD or cancer but lower specificity. Given the current deficiencies of these guidelines, it will be important to determine the acceptable rate of false-positives in order to prevent a single true-positive.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio is a Predictive Marker for Invasive Malignancy in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the correlation between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) values, and the presence of invasive carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN).

BACKGROUND

NLR and (PLR) are inflammatory markers that have been associated with overall survival in patients with invasive malignancies, including pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 272 patients who underwent surgical resection for histologically confirmed IPMN from January 1997 to July 2015. NLR and PLR were calculated and coevaluated with additional demographic, clinical, and imaging data for possible correlation with IPMN-associated carcinoma in the form of a predictive nomogram.

RESULTS

NLR and PLR were significantly elevated in patients with IPMN-associated invasive carcinoma (P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, NLR value higher than 4 (P < 0.001), IPMN cyst of size more than 3 cm (P < 0.001), presence of enhanced solid component (P = 0.014), main pancreatic duct dilatation of more than 5 mm (P < 0.001), and jaundice (P < 0.001) were statistically significant variables. The developed statistical model has a c-index of 0.895. Implementation of the statistically significant variables in a predictive nomogram provided a reliable point system for estimating the presence of IPMN-associated invasive carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR is an independent predictive marker for the presence of IPMN-associated invasive carcinoma. Further prospective studies are needed to assess the predictive ability of NLR and how it can be applied in the clinical setting.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas - epidemiology, risk factors, diagnosis, and management

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is one of the most common cystic neoplasms of the pancreas. It is a heterogeneous disease and can be divided into ductal types and morphological subtypes. The incidence of IPMN is increasing, likely due to the widespread use of cross-sectional imaging and a growing elderly population. IPMN poses an increasing demand on the health care system. Current guidelines provide indications for surgery and recommendations for surveillance, but management of IPMN is still challenging in routine clinical practice. In this article, we review current knowledge about IPMN and provide future directions for improving diagnosis and management.

Validation of the 2012 Fukuoka Consensus Guideline for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas From a Single Institution Experience

OBJECTIVES

The 2012 Fukuoka consensus guideline has stratified the risks of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas into "high-risk stigmata" (HRS) and "worrisome feature" (WF). This study aimed to evaluate its clinical validity based on a single institution experience.

METHODS

Eighty-nine patients who underwent surgical resection with pathological diagnosis of IPMN were retrospectively studied.

RESULTS

High-risk stigmata was significantly correlated with the prevalence of malignant IPMN as compared with WF. The positive predictive values of HRS and WF were 66.7% and 35.7% for branch duct IPMN and 80% and 38.1% for main duct IPMN, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that all the factors in HRS and WF had statistical significance. Whereas multivariate analysis revealed only enhanced solid component (odds ratio [OR], 50.01; P = 0.008), presence of mural nodule (OR, 73.83; P < 0.001) and lymphadenopathy (OR, 20.85; P = 0.03) were independent predictors. Scoring HRS and WF by different numbers of positive factors resulted in improved predictive value. The area under the curve of HRS score was significantly lower than that of WF or HRS + WF score (0.680 vs 0.900 or 0.902, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

As supplementary to the 2012 Fukuoka guideline, we suggest that calculating scores of WF and HRS may have superior diagnostic accuracy in predicting malignant IPMN.

Pancreatic cancer screening: Still a delusion?

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma represents the fourth most common cause of cancer mortality and death due to pancreatic cancer (PC) have increased since 2003. Its incidence has also raised about 30% in the past decade and it is expected to become the second cause of cancer mortality by 2020 in the USA. Most PC present with metastatic disease and improvements in treatment outcomes for this group have been disappointing. These observations support the idea that screening to identify patients at an earlier stage might be an important strategy in improving overall PC outcomes. Many protocols have been tested, nevertheless, by now there is no effective screening program. Given the overall low incidence of disease and the current lack of accurate, inexpensive and noninvasive screening tests, the consensus is that widespread population-based screening for PC in the general population or in patients with only one affected first-degree relative is neither practicable nor indicated in most countries. However, a different scenario is screening patients with higher risk for PC, most of them with hereditary conditions predisposing the development of this neoplasia. In fact, some guidelines are now available helping to select these individuals at risk and to screen them, in order to achieve early detection of PC.

Revisions of international consensus Fukuoka guidelines for the management of IPMN of the pancreas

The management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) continues to evolve. In particular, the indications for resection of branch duct IPMN have changed from early resection to more deliberate observation as proposed by the international consensus guidelines of 2006 and 2012. Another guideline proposed by the American Gastroenterological Association in 2015 restricted indications for surgery more stringently and recommended physicians to stop surveillance if no significant change had occurred in a pancreatic cyst after five years of surveillance, or if a patient underwent resection and a non-malignant IPMN was found. Whether or not it is safe to do so, as well as the method and interval of surveillance, has generated substantial debate. Based on a consensus symposium held during the meeting of the International Association of Pancreatology in Sendai, Japan, in 2016, the working group has revised the guidelines regarding prediction of invasive carcinoma and high-grade dysplasia, surveillance, and postoperative follow-up of IPMN. As the working group did not recognize the need for major revisions of the guidelines, we made only minor revisions and added most recent articles where appropriate. The present guidelines include updated information and recommendations based on our current understanding, and highlight issues that remain controversial or where further research is required.

Pancreatic Cysts and Guidelines

Pancreatic cysts, especially incidental asymptomatic ones seen on noninvasive imaging such as CT or MR imaging, remain a clinical challenge. The etiology of such cysts may range from benign cysts without any malignant potential such as pancreatic pseudocysts and serous cystadenomas to premalignant or frankly malignant cysts such as mucinous cystic neoplasms, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, cystic degeneration associated with solid tumors such as pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or pancreatic endocrine neoplasms, and solid pseudopapillary neoplasms. The clinical challenge in 2017 is to accurately preoperatively diagnose them and their malignant potential before deciding about surgery, surveillance or doing nothing. This review will focus on the currently available clinical guidelines for doing so.

Comparing 3 guidelines on the management of surgically removed pancreatic cysts with regard to pathological outcome

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Currently, 3 guidelines are available for the management of pancreatic cysts. These guidelines vary in their indication for resection of high-risk cysts. We retrospectively compared the final pathologic outcome of surgically removed pancreatic cysts with the indications for resection according to 3 different guidelines.

METHODS

Patients who underwent pancreatic resection were extracted from our prospective pancreatic cyst database (2006-present). The final histopathologic diagnosis was compared with the initial indication for surgery stated by the guidelines of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP), European Study Group on Cystic tumors of the Pancreas and American Gastroenterological Association (AGA). We considered surgery in retrospect justified for malignancy, high-grade dysplasia, solid pseudopapillary neoplasms, neuroendocrine tumors or symptom improvement. Furthermore, we evaluated the patients with suspected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) separately.

RESULTS

Overall, 115 patients underwent pancreatic resection. The preoperative diagnosis was correct in 83 of 115 patients (72%) and differentiation between benign and premalignant in 99 of 115 patients (86%). In retrospect, surgery was justified according to the aforementioned criteria in 52 of 115 patients (45%). For patients with suspected IPMN (n = 75) resection was justified in 36 of 67 (54%), 36 of 68 (53%), and 32 of 54 (59%) of patients who would have had surgery based on the IAP, European, or AGA guidelines, respectively. The AGA guideline would have avoided resection in 21 of 75 (28%) patients, versus 8 of 75 (11%) and 7 of 75 (9%) when the IAP or European guideline would have been applied strictly. Nevertheless, 4 of 33 patients (12%) with high-grade dysplasia or malignancy would have been missed with the AGA guidelines, compared with none with the IAP or European guidelines.

CONCLUSION

Although fewer patients undergo unnecessary surgery based on the AGA guidelines, the risk of missing malignancy or high-grade dysplasia with this guideline seems considerably high.

Management of patients with pancreatic cystic lesions: A case-based survey

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCL), including intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN), harbor different malignant potential and the optimal management is often challenging. The present study aims to depict the compliance of experts with current consensus guidelines and the accuracy of treatment recommendations stratified by the medical specialty and hospital volume.

METHODS

An international survey was conducted using a set of 10 selected cases of PCL that were presented to a cohort of international experts on pancreatology. All presented cases were surgically resected between 2004 and 2015 and histopathological examination was available. Accuracy of the treatment recommendations was based on the European and international consensus guideline algorithms, and the histopathological result.

RESULTS

The response rate of the survey was 26% (46 of 177 contacted experts), consisting of 70% surgeons and 30% gastroenterologists/oncologists (GI/Onc). In the case of main-duct IPMN (MD-IPMN), surgeons preferred more often the surgical approach in comparison with the GI/Onc (55 versus 44%). The mean accuracy rate based on the European and international consensus guidelines, and the histopathological result, were 71/76/38% (surgeons), and 70/73/34% (GI/Onc), respectively. High-volume centers achieved insignificantly higher accuracy scores with regard to the histopathology. Small branch-duct IPMN with cysts <2 cm and malignant potential were not identified by the guideline algorithms.

CONCLUSION

The survey underlines the complexity of treatment decisions for patients with PCL; less than 40% of the recommendations were in line with the final histopathology in this selected case panel. Experts and consensus guidelines may fail to predict malignant potential in small PCL.

Predicting the Grade of Dysplasia of Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms Using Cyst Fluid DNA Methylation Markers

Purpose: Pancreatic cysts are common and pose diagnostic and management challenges. Pancreatic cyst fluid markers have the potential to aid in the management of cysts with concerning imaging findings. Our aim was to evaluate cyst fluid methylated DNA markers for their accuracy for predicting the histologic grade of neoplastic pancreatic cysts.Experimental Design: Pancreatic cyst fluid samples from 183 patients (29 discovery and 154 validation) aspirated after surgical resection were analyzed for methylated DNA at selected genes (SOX17, BNIP3, FOXE1, PTCHD2, SLIT2, EYA4, and SFRP1) using methylation-specific droplet-digital PCR (dd-QMSP). Methylated DNA levels were evaluated for their accuracy at predicting the grade of dysplasia of the pancreatic cyst.Results: All six markers evaluated in the validation set could accurately distinguish high-risk cystic neoplasms (with high-grade dysplasia and/or associated invasive cancer) from low-risk cysts (lower grades of dysplasia) with accuracies from 79.8% to 83.6%. Methylated SOX17 had the highest overall accuracy as a single marker (sensitivity, 78.4%; specificity, 85.6%; accuracy 83.6%, cutoff; 25 methylated DNA molecules/μL cyst fluid). The best four-gene combination had 84.3% sensitivity, 89.4% specificity, and 88.0% accuracy at distinguishing cysts with high-grade dysplasia and/or invasive cancer from those without. All six markers were independent predictors of having invasive cancer/high-grade dysplasia after adjusting for clinical/imaging factors known to be associated with grade of dysplasia. The combination of methylated SOX17 with cytology better predicted neoplastic grade than cytology alone.Conclusions: A panel of methylated gene markers quantified by dd-QMSP can be used to predict the grade of dysplasia of pancreatic cysts. Clin Cancer Res; 23(14); 3935-44. ©2017 AACR.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and mucinous cystadenomas: current status and recommendations

The real prevalence of pancreatic cystic lesions remains unknown. The malignant potential of some of these lesions remains a cause for significant concern. Thus, it is mandatory to develop a strategy to clearly discriminate those cysts with a potential for malignant transformation from those that do not carry any significant risk. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and mucinous cystadenomas are mucinous cystic neoplasms with a known malignant potential that have gained greater recognition in recent years. However, despite the numerous studies that have been carried out, their differential diagnosis among other cysts subtypes and their therapeutic approach continue to be a challenge for clinicians. This review contains a critical approach of the current recommendations and management strategies regarding intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and mucinous cystadenomas, as well as highlighting the limitations exposed in current guidelines.

EUS for pancreatic cystic neoplasms: The roadmap to the future is much more than just a few shades of gray

Pancreatic cystic and neoplasms are being diagnosed with increasing frequency. Accurate diagnosis and determination of benign versus malignant lesions is crucial for determining need for surveillance versus surgery or endoscopic therapy as well as avoiding unnecessary surgery in cysts with no malignant potential. Tumor markers such as KRAS and GNAS hold promise, but which molecular marker or a combination of markers is most useful and cost effective remains to be seen. Advanced imaging with confocal laser endomicroscopy can serve as an optical biopsy and play a part in the diagnostic algorithm. Microforceps aided biopsy of pancreatic cyst wall and tumor contents hold great promise as they allow direct tissue acquisition. Much progress has been made in the role of EUS guided evaluation of pancreatic cystic neoplasms over the last several years, and with the advances enumerated above, the future is more than just a few shades of gray. Future studies should include prospective multi-arm trials of microforceps biopsy versus conventional EUS-FNA and use of biochemical and molecular markers, confocal laser endomicroscopy or a combination thereof to determine best approach to pancreatic cystic neoplasms. In Osler's words, 'Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability'. Incorporation of advanced imaging and molecular markers into a new diagnostic algorithm with subsequent validation through retrospective and prospective studies has the potential to increase diagnostic accuracy and guide optimal management of patients and improve outcomes.