PBPK modelling of inter-individual variability in the pharmacokinetics of environmental chemicals

Advancing PFAS risk assessment: Integrative approaches using agent-based modelling and physiologically-based kinetic for environmental and health safety

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), ubiquitous in a myriad of consumer and industrial products, and depending on the doses of exposure represent a hazard to both environmental and public health, owing to their persistent, mobile, and bio accumulative properties. These substances exhibit long half-lives in humans and can induce potential immunotoxic effects at low exposure levels, sparking growing concerns. While the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has assessed the risk to human health related to the presence of PFAS in food, in which a reduced antibody response to vaccination in infants was considered as the most critical human health effect, a comprehensive grasp of the molecular mechanisms spearheading PFAS-induced immunotoxicity is yet to be attained. Leveraging modern computational tools, including the Agent-Based Model (ABM) Universal Immune System Simulator (UISS) and Physiologically Based Kinetic (PBK) models, a deeper insight into the complex mechanisms of PFAS was sought. The adapted UISS serves as a vital tool in chemical risk assessments, simulating the host immune system's reactions to diverse stimuli and monitoring biological entities within specific adverse health contexts. In tandem, PBK models unravelling PFAS' biokinetics within the body i.e. absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination, facilitating the development of time-concentration profiles from birth to 75 years at varied dosage levels, thereby enhancing UISS-TOX's predictive abilities. The integrated use of these computational frameworks shows promises in leveraging new scientific evidence to support risk assessments of PFAS. This innovative approach not only allowed to bridge existing data gaps but also unveiled complex mechanisms and the identification of unanticipated dynamics, potentially guiding more informed risk assessments, regulatory decisions, and associated risk mitigations measures for the future.

Mapping Interindividual Variability of Toxicodynamics Using High-Throughput Transcriptomics and Primary Human Hepatocytes from Fifty Donors

BACKGROUND

Understanding the variability across the human population with respect to toxicodynamic responses after exposure to chemicals, such as environmental toxicants or drugs, is essential to define safety factors for risk assessment to protect the entire population. Activation of cellular stress response pathways are early adverse outcome pathway (AOP) key events of chemical-induced toxicity and would elucidate the estimation of population variability of toxicodynamic responses.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to map the variability in cellular stress response activation in a large panel of primary human hepatocyte (PHH) donors to aid in the quantification of toxicodynamic interindividual variability to derive safety uncertainty factors.

METHODS

High-throughput transcriptomics of over 8,000 samples in total was performed covering a panel of 50 individual PHH donors upon 8 to 24 h exposure to broad concentration ranges of four different toxicological relevant stimuli: tunicamycin for the unfolded protein response (UPR), diethyl maleate for the oxidative stress response (OSR), cisplatin for the DNA damage response (DDR), and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF α ) for NF- κ B signaling. Using a population mixed-effect framework, the distribution of benchmark concentrations (BMCs) and maximum fold change were modeled to evaluate the influence of PHH donor panel size on the correct estimation of interindividual variability for the various stimuli.

RESULTS

Transcriptome mapping allowed the investigation of the interindividual variability in concentration-dependent stress response activation, where the average of BMCs had a maximum difference of 864-, 13-, 13-, and 259-fold between different PHHs for UPR, OSR, DDR, and NF- κ B signaling-related genes, respectively. Population modeling revealed that small PHH panel sizes systematically underestimated the variance and gave low probabilities in estimating the correct human population variance. Estimated toxicodynamic variability factors of stress response activation in PHHs based on this dataset ranged between 1.6 and 6.3.

DISCUSSION

Overall, by combining high-throughput transcriptomics and population modeling, improved understanding of interindividual variability in chemical-induced activation of toxicity relevant stress pathways across the human population using a large panel of plated cryopreserved PHHs was established, thereby contributing toward increasing the confidence of in vitro-based prediction of adverse responses, in particular hepatotoxicity. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11891.

Mesoporous silica nanoparticles: An emerging approach in overcoming the challenges with oral delivery of proteins and peptides

Proteins and peptides (PPs), as therapeutics are widely explored in the past few decades, by virtue of their inherent advantages like high specificity and biocompatibility with minimal side effects. However, owing to their macromolecular size, poor membrane permeability, and high enzymatic susceptibility, the effective delivery of PPs is often challenging. Moreover, their subjection to varying environmental conditions, when administered orally, results in PPs denaturation and structural conformation, thereby lowering their bioavailability. Hence, for effective delivery with enhanced bioavailability, protection of PPs using nanoparticle-based delivery system has gained a growing interest. Mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSNs), with their tailored morphology and pore size, high surface area, easy surface modification, versatile loading capacity, excellent thermal stability, and good biocompatibility, are eligible candidates for the effective delivery of macromolecules to the target site. This review highlights the different barriers hindering the oral absorption of PPs and the various strategies available to overcome them. In addition, the potential benefits of MSNs, along with their diversifying role in controlling the loading of PPs and their release under the influence of specific stimuli, are also discussed in length. Further, the tuning of MSNs for enhanced gene transfection efficacy is also highlighted. Since extensive research is ongoing in this area, this review is concluded with an emphasis on the potential risks of MSNs that need to be addressed prior to their clinical translation.

A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for predicting doxorubicin disposition in multiple tissue levels and quantitative toxicity assessment

Doxorubicin is a widely-used chemotherapeutic drug, however its high toxicity poses a significant challenge for its clinical use. To address this issue, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was implemented to quantitatively assess doxorubicin toxicity at cellular scale. Due to its unique pharmacokinetic behavior (e.g. high volume of distribution and affinity to extra-plasma tissue compartments), we proposed a modified PBPK model structure and developed the model with multispecies extrapolation to compensate for the limitation of obtaining clinical tissue data. Our model predicted the disposition of doxorubicin in multiple tissues including clinical tissue data with an overall absolute average fold error (AAFE) of 2.12. The model's performance was further validated with 8 clinical datasets in combined with intracellular doxorubicin concentration with an average AAFE of 1.98. To assess the potential cellular toxicity, toxicity levels and area under curve (AUC) were defined for different dosing regimens in toxic and non-toxic scenarios. The cellular concentrations of doxorubicin in multiple organ sites associated with commonly observed adverse effects (AEs) were simulated and calculated the AUC for quantitative assessments. Our findings supported the clinical dosing regimen of 75 mg/m2 with a 21-day interval and suggest that slow infusion and separated single high doses may lower the risk of developing AEs from a cellular level, providing valuable insights for the risk assessment of doxorubicin chemotherapy. In conclusion, our work highlights the potential of PBPK modelling to provide quantitative assessments of cellular toxicity and supports the use of clinical dosing regimens to mitigate the risk of adverse effects.

The Application of a Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Model in Health Risk Assessment

Toxicokinetics plays a crucial role in the health risk assessments of xenobiotics. Classical compartmental models are limited in their ability to determine chemical concentrations in specific organs or tissues, particularly target organs or tissues, and their limited interspecific and exposure route extrapolation hinders satisfactory health risk assessment. In contrast, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models quantitatively describe the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of chemicals across various exposure routes and doses in organisms, establishing correlations with toxic effects. Consequently, PBTK models serve as potent tools for extrapolation and provide a theoretical foundation for health risk assessment and management. This review outlines the construction and application of PBTK models in health risk assessment while analyzing their limitations and future perspectives.

An Overview of Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models for Forensic Science

A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model represents the structural components of the body with physiologically relevant compartments connected via blood flow rates described by mathematical equations to determine drug disposition. PBPK models are used in the pharmaceutical sector for drug development, precision medicine, and the chemical industry to predict safe levels of exposure during the registration of chemical substances. However, one area of application where PBPK models have been scarcely used is forensic science. In this review, we give an overview of PBPK models successfully developed for several illicit drugs and environmental chemicals that could be applied for forensic interpretation, highlighting the gaps, uncertainties, and limitations.

Cumulative Risk Meets Inter-Individual Variability: Probabilistic Concentration Addition of Complex Mixture Exposures in a Population-Based Human In Vitro Model

Although humans are continuously exposed to complex chemical mixtures in the environment, it has been extremely challenging to investigate the resulting cumulative risks and impacts. Recent studies proposed the use of “new approach methods,” in particular in vitro assays, for hazard and dose−response evaluation of mixtures. We previously found, using five human cell-based assays, that concentration addition (CA), the usual default approach to calculate cumulative risk, is mostly accurate to within an order of magnitude. Here, we extend these findings to further investigate how cell-based data can be used to quantify inter-individual variability in CA. Utilizing data from testing 42 Superfund priority chemicals separately and in 8 defined mixtures in a human cell-based population-wide in vitro model, we applied CA to predict effective concentrations for cytotoxicity for each individual, for “typical” (median) and “sensitive” (first percentile) members of the population, and for the median-to-sensitive individual ratio (defined as the toxicodynamic variability factor, TDVF). We quantified the accuracy of CA with the Loewe Additivity Index (LAI). We found that LAI varies more between different mixtures than between different individuals, and that predictions of the population median are generally more accurate than predictions for the “sensitive” individual or the TDVF. Moreover, LAI values were generally <1, indicating that the mixtures were more potent than predicted by CA. Together with our previous studies, we posit that new approach methods data from human cell-based in vitro assays, including multiple phenotypes in diverse cell types and studies in a population-wide model, can fill critical data gaps in cumulative risk assessment, but more sophisticated models of in vitro mixture additivity and bioavailability may be needed. In the meantime, because simple CA models may underestimate potency by an order of magnitude or more, either whole-mixture testing in vitro or, alternatively, more stringent benchmarks of cumulative risk indices (e.g., lower hazard index) may be needed to ensure public health protection.

Advances in computational methods along the exposure to toxicological response paradigm

Human health risk assessment is a function of chemical toxicity, bioavailability to reach target biological tissues, and potential environmental exposure. These factors are complicated by many physiological, biochemical, physical and lifestyle factors. Furthermore, chemical health risk assessment is challenging in view of the large, and continually increasing, number of chemicals found in the environment. These challenges highlight the need to prioritize resources for the efficient and timely assessment of those environmental chemicals that pose greatest health risks. Computational methods, either predictive or investigative, are designed to assist in this prioritization in view of the lack of cost prohibitive in vivo experimental data. Computational methods provide specific and focused toxicity information using in vitro high throughput screening (HTS) assays. Information from the HTS assays can be converted to in vivo estimates of chemical levels in blood or target tissue, which in turn are converted to in vivo dose estimates that can be compared to exposure levels of the screened chemicals. This manuscript provides a review for the landscape of computational methods developed and used at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) highlighting their potentials and challenges.

Insights into the mapping of green synthesis conditions for ZnO nanoparticles and their toxicokinetics

Research on ZnO nanoparticles (NPs) has broad medical applications. However, the green synthesis of ZnO NPs involves a wide range of properties requiring optimization. ZnO NPs show toxicity at lower doses. This toxicity is a function of NP properties and pharmacokinetics. Moreover, NP toxicity and pharmacokinetics are affected by the species type and age of the animals tested. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling offers a mechanistic platform to scrutinize the colligative effect of the interplay between these factors, which reduces the need for in vivo studies. This review provides a guide to choosing green synthesis conditions that result in minimal toxicity using a mechanistic tool, namely PBPK modeling.

Probabilistic modelling of developmental neurotoxicity based on a simplified adverse outcome pathway network

In a century where toxicology and chemical risk assessment are embracing alternative methods to animal testing, there is an opportunity to understand the causal factors of neurodevelopmental disorders such as learning and memory disabilities in children, as a foundation to predict adverse effects. New testing paradigms, along with the advances in probabilistic modelling, can help with the formulation of mechanistically-driven hypotheses on how exposure to environmental chemicals could potentially lead to developmental neurotoxicity (DNT). This investigation aimed to develop a Bayesian hierarchical model of a simplified AOP network for DNT. The model predicted the probability that a compound induces each of three selected common key events (CKEs) of the simplified AOP network and the adverse outcome (AO) of DNT, taking into account correlations and causal relations informed by the key event relationships (KERs). A dataset of 88 compounds representing pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and pesticides was compiled including physicochemical properties as well as in silico and in vitro information. The Bayesian model was able to predict DNT potential with an accuracy of 76%, classifying the compounds into low, medium or high probability classes. The modelling workflow achieved three further goals: it dealt with missing values; accommodated unbalanced and correlated data; and followed the structure of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to simulate the simplified AOP network. Overall, the model demonstrated the utility of Bayesian hierarchical modelling for the development of quantitative AOP (qAOP) models and for informing the use of new approach methodologies (NAMs) in chemical risk assessment.

PBPK Modeling to Simulate the Fate of Compounds in Living Organisms

Pharmacokinetics study the fate of xenobiotics in a living organism. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models provide realistic descriptions of xenobiotics' absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion processes. They model the body as a set of homogeneous compartments representing organs, and their parameters refer to anatomical, physiological, biochemical, and physicochemical entities. They offer a quantitative mechanistic framework to understand and simulate the time-course of the concentration of a substance in various organs and body fluids. These models are well suited for performing extrapolations inherent to toxicology and pharmacology (e.g., between species or doses) and for integrating data obtained from various sources (e.g., in vitro or in vivo experiments, structure-activity models). In this chapter, we describe the practical development and basic use of a PBPK model from model building to model simulations, through implementation with an easily accessible free software.

Oral delivery of proteins and peptides: Challenges, status quo and future perspectives

Proteins and peptides (PPs) have gradually become more attractive therapeutic molecules than small molecular drugs due to their high selectivity and efficacy, but fewer side effects. Owing to the poor stability and limited permeability through gastrointestinal (GI) tract and epithelia, the therapeutic PPs are usually administered by parenteral route. Given the big demand for oral administration in clinical use, a variety of researches focused on developing new technologies to overcome GI barriers of PPs, such as enteric coating, enzyme inhibitors, permeation enhancers, nanoparticles, as well as intestinal microdevices. Some new technologies have been developed under clinical trials and even on the market. This review summarizes the history, the physiological barriers and the overcoming approaches, current clinical and preclinical technologies, and future prospects of oral delivery of PPs.

Patient-Specific Organoid and Organ-on-a-Chip: 3D Cell-Culture Meets 3D Printing and Numerical Simulation

The last few decades have witnessed diversified in vitro models to recapitulate the architecture and function of living organs or tissues and contribute immensely to advances in life science. Two novel 3D cell culture models: 1) Organoid, promoted mainly by the developments of stem cell biology and 2) Organ-on-a-chip, enhanced primarily due to microfluidic technology, have emerged as two promising approaches to advance the understanding of basic biological principles and clinical treatments. This review describes the comparable distinct differences between these two models and provides more insights into their complementarity and integration to recognize their merits and limitations for applicable fields. The convergence of the two approaches to produce multi-organoid-on-a-chip or human organoid-on-a-chip is emerging as a new approach for building 3D models with higher physiological relevance. Furthermore, rapid advancements in 3D printing and numerical simulations, which facilitate the design, manufacture, and results-translation of 3D cell culture models, can also serve as novel tools to promote the development and propagation of organoid and organ-on-a-chip systems. Current technological challenges and limitations, as well as expert recommendations and future solutions to address the promising combinations by incorporating organoids, organ-on-a-chip, 3D printing, and numerical simulation, are also summarized.

Opening a debate on open-source modeling tools: Pouring fuel on fire versus extinguishing the flare of a healthy debate

As model‐informed drug development becomes an integral part of modern approaches to the discovery of new therapeutic entities and showing their safety and effectiveness, modalities of incorporating the paradigm into widespread practice require a revisit. Traditionally, modeling and simulation (M&S) have been performed by specialized teams who create bespoke models for each case and have reservations about letting modeling be done by the greater mass of scientists engaged in various stages of drug development. An analogy can be drawn between M&S and automobiles: typical drivers of ordinary cars use them for daily tasks, such as going from point A to B whereas specialized Formula 1 drivers using bespoke individually made cars to test the latest technologies. The reliability and robustness of ordinary cars for the first group requires elements related to quality and endurance that are very different from those applicable to any Formula 1 car supported by a large team of engineers. In this commentary, we frame and analyze the problems concerning the structure and setup of various M&S tools, and their pros and cons. We demonstrate that many misconceptions have precluded having an open discussion on what each modality of M&S tools strives to achieve, and we provide data and evidence that support the move of M&S to main stream use by many, as opposed to specialized usage by few. Parallels are drawn in many other areas involving laboratory instrumentation, statistical analyses, and so on.

Bayesian population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for robustness evaluation of withdrawal time in tilapia aquaculture administrated to florfenicol

The antimicrobial residues of aquacultural production is a growing public concern, leading to reexamine the method for establishing robust withdrawal time and ensuring food safety. Our study aims to develop the optimizing population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for assessing florfenicol residues in the tilapia tissues, and for evaluating the robustness of the withdrawal time (WT). Fitting with published pharmacokinetic profiles that experimented under temperatures of 22 and 28 °C, a PBPK model was constructed by applying with the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carol (MCMC) algorithm to estimate WTs under different physiological, environmental and dosing scenarios. Results show that the MCMC algorithm improves the estimates of uncertainty and variability of PBPK-related parameters, and optimizes the simulation of the PBPK model. It is noteworthy that posterior sets generated from temperature-associated datasets to be respectively used for simulating residues under corresponding temperature conditions. Simulating the residues under regulated regimen and overdosing scenarios for Taiwan, the estimated WTs were 12-16 days at 22 °C and 9-12 days at 28 °C, while for the USA, the estimated WTs were 14-18 and 11-14 days, respectively. Comparison with the regulated WT of 15 days, results indicate that the current WT has well robustness and resilience in the environment of higher temperatures. The optimal Bayesian population PBPK model provides effective analysis for determining WTs under scenario-specific conditions. It is a new insight into the increasing body of literature on developing the Bayesian-PBPK model and has practical implications for improving the regulation of food safety.

Use of Exposomic Methods Incorporating Sensors in Environmental Epidemiology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The exposome is a recently coined concept that comprises the totality of nongenetic factors that affect human health. It is recognized as a major conceptual advancement in environmental epidemiology, and there is increased demand for technologies that capture the spatial, temporal, and chemical variability of exposures across individuals (i.e., "exposomic sensors"). We review a selection of these tools, highlighting their strengths and limitations with regard to epidemiological research.

RECENT FINDINGS

Wearable passive samplers are emerging as promising exposomic sensors for individuals. In conjunction with targeted and untargeted assays, these sensors enable the measurement of complex multipollutant mixtures, which can include both known and previously unknown environmental contaminants. Because of their minimally burdensome and noninvasive nature, they are deployable among sensitive populations, such as seniors, pregnant women, and children. The integration of exposomic data captured by these sensors with other omic data (e.g., transcriptomic and metabolomic) presents exciting opportunities for investigating disease risk factors. For example, the linkage of exposomic sensor data with other omic data may indicate perturbation by multipollutant mixtures at multiple physiological levels, which would strengthen evidence of their effects and potentially indicate targets for interventions. However, there remain considerable theoretical and methodological challenges that must be overcome to realize the potential promise of omic integration. Through continued investment and improvement in exposomic sensor technologies, it may be possible to refine their application and reduce their outstanding limitations to advance the fields of exposure science and epidemiology.

Inter-phenotypic differences in CYP2C9 and CYP2C19 metabolism: Bayesian meta-regression of human population variability in kinetics and application in chemical risk assessment

Quantifying variability in pharmacokinetics (PK) and toxicokinetics (TK) provides a science-based approach to refine uncertainty factors (UFs) for chemical risk assessment. In this context, genetic polymorphisms in cytochromes P450 (CYPs) drive inter-phenotypic differences and may result in reduction or increase in metabolism of drugs or other xenobiotics. Here, an extensive literature search was performed to identify PK data for probe substrates of the human polymorphic isoforms CYP2C9 and CYP2C19. Relevant data from 158 publications were extracted for markers of chronic exposure (clearance and area under the plasma concentration-time curve) and analysed using a Bayesian meta-regression model. Enzyme function (EF), driven by inter-phenotypic differences across a range of allozymes present in extensive and poor metabolisers (EMs and PMs), and fraction metabolised (Fm), were identified as exhibiting the highest impact on the metabolism. The Bayesian meta-regression model provided good predictions for such inter-phenotypic differences. Integration of population distributions for inter-phenotypic differences and estimates for EF and Fm allowed the derivation of CYP2C9- and CYP2C19-related UFs which ranged from 2.7 to 12.7, and were above the default factor for human variability in TK (3.16) for PMs and major substrates (Fm >60%). These results provide population distributions and pathway-related UFs as conservative in silico options to integrate variability in CYP2C9 and CYP2C19 metabolism using in vitro kinetic evidence and in the absence of human data. The future development of quantitative extrapolation models is discussed with particular attention to integrating human in vitro and in vivo PK or TK data with pathway-related variability for chemical risk assessment.

Assessment of Multipollutant Exposures During Pregnancy Using Silicone Wristbands

Silicone wristbands can assess multipollutant exposures in a non-invasive and minimally burdensome manner, which may be suitable for use among pregnant women. We investigated silicone wristbands as passive environmental samplers in the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study, a prospective pregnancy cohort. We used wristbands to assess exposure to a broad range of organic chemicals, identified multipollutant exposure profiles using self-organizing maps (SOMs), and assessed temporal consistency and determinants of exposures during pregnancy. Participants (n = 255) wore wristbands for 1 week at 12 gestational weeks. Of 1,530 chemicals assayed, 199 were detected in at least one wristband and 16 were detected in >60% of wristbands. A median of 23 (range: 12,37) chemicals were detected in each wristband, and chemicals in commerce and personal care products were most frequently detected. A subset of participants (n=20) wore a second wristband at 24 gestational weeks, and concentrations of frequently detected chemicals were moderately correlated between time points (median intraclass correlation: 0.22; range: 0.00,0.69). Women with higher educational attainment had fewer chemicals detected in their wristbands and the total number of chemicals detected varied seasonally. Triphenyl phosphate concentrations were positively associated with nail polish use, and benzophenone concentrations were highest in summer. No clear associations were observed with other a priori relations, including certain behaviors, season, and socioeconomic factors. SOM analyses revealed 12 profiles, ranging from 2 to 149 participants, captured multipollutant exposure profiles observed in this cohort. The most common profile (n = 149) indicated that 58% of participants experienced relatively low exposures to frequently detected chemicals. Less common (n ≥ 10) and rare (n < 10) profiles were characterized by low to moderate exposures to most chemicals and very high and/or very low exposure to a subset of chemicals. Certain covariates varied across SOM profile membership; for example, relative to women in the most common profile who had low exposures to most chemicals, women in the profile with elevated exposure to galaxolide and benzyl benzoate were younger, more likely to be single, and more likely to report nail polish use. Our study illustrates the utility of silicone wristbands for measurement of multipollutant exposures in sensitive populations, including pregnant women.

Current Approaches and Techniques in Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modelling of Nanomaterials

There have been efforts to develop physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for nanomaterials (NMs). Since NMs have quite different kinetic behaviors, the applicability of the approaches and techniques that are utilized in current PBPK models for NMs is warranted. Most PBPK models simulate a size-independent endocytosis from tissues or blood. In the lungs, dosimetry and the air-liquid interface (ALI) models have sometimes been used to estimate NM deposition and translocation into the circulatory system. In the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, kinetics data are needed for mechanistic understanding of NM behavior as well as their absorption through GI mucus and their subsequent hepatobiliary excretion into feces. Following absorption, permeability (P_t) and partition coefficients (PCs) are needed to simulate partitioning from the circulatory system into various organs. Furthermore, mechanistic modelling of organ- and species-specific NM corona formation is in its infancy. More recently, some PBPK models have included the mononuclear phagocyte system (MPS). Most notably, dissolution, a key elimination process for NMs, is only empirically added in some PBPK models. Nevertheless, despite the many challenges still present, there have been great advances in the development and application of PBPK models for hazard assessment and risk assessment of NMs.

PBPK model reporting template for chemical risk assessment applications

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling analysis does not stand on its own for regulatory purposes but is a robust tool to support drug/chemical safety assessment. While the development of PBPK models have grown steadily since their emergence, only a handful of models have been accepted to support regulatory purposes due to obstacles such as the lack of a standardized template for reporting PBPK analysis. Here, we expand the existing guidances designed for pharmaceutical applications by recommending additional elements that are relevant to environmental chemicals. This harmonized reporting template can be adopted and customized by public health agencies receiving PBPK model submission, and it can also serve as general guidance for submitting PBPK-related studies for publication in journals or other modeling sharing purposes. The current effort represents one of several ongoing collaborations among the PBPK modeling and risk assessment communities to promote, when appropriate, incorporating PBPK modeling to characterize the influence of pharmacokinetics on safety decisions made by regulatory agencies.

Development of a generic lifelong physiologically based biokinetic model for exposome studies

The current study within the frame of the HEALS project aims at the development of a lifelong physiologically based biokinetic (PBBK) model for exposome studies. The aim was to deliver a comprehensive modelling framework for addressing a large chemical space. Towards this aim, the delivered model can easily adapt parameters from existing ad-hoc models or complete the missing compound specific parameters using advanced quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR). All major human organs are included, as well as arterial, venous, and portal blood compartments. Xenobiotics and their metabolites are linked through the metabolizing tissues. This is mainly the liver, but also other sites of metabolism might be considered (intestine, brain, skin, placenta) based on the presence or not of the enzymes involved in the metabolism of the compound of interest. Each tissue is described by three mass balance equations for (a) red blood cells, (b) plasma and interstitial tissue and (c) cells respectively. The anthropometric parameters of the models are time dependent, so as to provide a lifetime internal dose assessment, as well as to describe the continuously changing physiology of the mother and the developing fetus. An additional component of flexibility is that the biokinetic processes that relate to metabolism are related with either Michaelis-Menten kinetics, as well as intrinsic clearance kinetics. The capability of the model is demonstrated in the assessment of internal exposure and the prediction of expected biomonitored levels in urine for three major compounds within the HEALS project, namely bisphenol A (BPA), Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and cadmium (Cd). The results indicated that the predicted urinary levels fit very well with the ones from human biomonitoring (HBM) studies; internal exposure to plasticizers is very low (in the range of ng/L), while internal exposure to Cd is in the range of μg/L.

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA's Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

A dual mixture of persistent organic pollutants modifies carbohydrate metabolism in the human hepatic cell line HepaRG

Individuals as well as entire ecosystems are exposed to mixtures of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). Previously, we showed, by a non-targeted approach, that the expression of several genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism was almost completely inhibited in the human hepatic cell line HepaRG following exposure to a mixture of the organochlorine insecticide alpha-endosulfan and 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin. In this European HEALS project, which studies the effects of the exposome on human health, we used a Physiologically Based BioKinetic model to compare the concentrations previously used in vitro with in vivo exposures for humans. We investigated the effects of these POPs on the levels of proteins, on glycogen content, glucose production and the oxidation of glucose into CO₂ and correlated them to the expression of genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism as measured by RT-qPCR. Exposure to individual POPs and the mixture decreased the expression of the proteins investigated as well as glucose output (up to 82%), glucose oxidation (up to 29%) and glycogen content (up to 48%). siRNAs that specifically inhibit the expression of several xenobiotic receptors were used to assess receptor involvement in the effects of the POPs. In the HepaRG model, we demonstrate that the effects are mediated by the aryl hydrocarbon receptor and the estrogen receptor alpha, but not the pregnane X receptor or the constitutive androstane receptor. These results provide evidence that exposure to combinations of POPs, acting through different signaling pathways, may affect, more profoundly than single pollutants alone, metabolic pathways such as carbohydrate/energy metabolism and play a potential role in pollutant associated metabolic disorders.

Critical assessment and integration of separate lines of evidence for risk assessment of chemical mixtures

Humans are exposed to multiple chemicals on a daily basis instead of to just a single chemical, yet the majority of existing toxicity data comes from single-chemical exposure. Multiple factors must be considered such as the route, concentration, duration, and the timing of exposure when determining toxicity to the organism. The need for adequate model systems (in vivo, in vitro, in silico and mathematical) is paramount for better understanding of chemical mixture toxicity. Currently, shortcomings plague each model system as investigators struggle to find the appropriate balance of rigor, reproducibility and appropriateness in mixture toxicity studies. Significant questions exist when comparing single-to mixture-chemical toxicity concerning additivity, synergism, potentiation, or antagonism. Dose/concentration relevance is a major consideration and should be subthreshold for better accuracy in toxicity assessment. Previous work was limited by the technology and methodology of the time, but recent advances have resulted in significant progress in the study of mixture toxicology. Novel technologies have added insight to data obtained from in vivo studies for predictive toxicity testing. These include new in vitro models: omics-related tools, organs-on-a-chip and 3D cell culture, and in silico methods. Taken together, all these modern methodologies improve the understanding of the multiple toxicity pathways associated with adverse outcomes (e.g., adverse outcome pathways), thus allowing investigators to better predict risks linked to exposure to chemical mixtures. As technology and knowledge advance, our ability to harness and integrate separate streams of evidence regarding outcomes associated with chemical mixture exposure improves. As many national and international organizations are currently stressing, studies on chemical mixture toxicity are of primary importance.

Prediction of maternal and foetal exposures to perfluoroalkyl compounds in a Spanish birth cohort using toxicokinetic modelling

Prenatal exposures to perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been associated with child health outcomes, but many of these associations remain poorly characterized. The aim of this work was to provide new indicators of foetal exposure for the Spanish INMA birth cohort. First, a pregnancy and lactation physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was calibrated in a population framework to provide quantitative estimates for the PFOA and PFOS placental transfers in humans. The estimated distributions indicated that PFOA crosses the placental barrier at a rate three times higher than PFOS and shows a higher variability between mothers. The PBPK model was then used to back-calculate the time-varying daily intakes of the INMA mothers corrected for their individual history from a spot maternal concentration. We showed the importance of accounting for the mothers' history as different dietary intakes can result in similar measured concentrations at one time point. Finally, the foetal exposure was simulated in target organs over pregnancy using the PBPK model and the estimated maternal intakes. We showed that the pattern of PFOA and PFOS exposures varies greatly among the foetuses. About a third has levels of either one compound always higher than the levels of the other compound. The other two thirds showed different ranking of PFOA and PFOS in terms of concentrations in the target organs. Our simulated foetal exposures bring additional information to the measured maternal spot concentrations and can help to better characterize the prenatal exposure in target organs during windows of susceptibility.

Physiology-based toxicokinetic modelling in the frame of the European Human Biomonitoring Initiative

Given the opportunities provided by internal dosimetry modelling in the interpretation of human biomonitoring (HBM) data, the assessment of the links between exposure to chemicals and observed HBM data can be effectively supported by PBTK modelling. This paper gives a comprehensive review of available human PBTK models for compounds selected as a priority by the European Human Biomonitoring Initiative (HBM4EU). We highlight their advantages and deficiencies and suggest steps for advanced internal dose modelling. The review of the available PBTK models highlighted the conceptual differences between older models compared to the ones developed recently, reflecting commensurate differences in research questions. Due to the lack of coordinated strategies for deriving useful biomonitoring data for toxicokinetic properties, significant problems in model parameterisation still remain; these are further increased by the lack of human toxicokinetic data due to ethics issues. Finally, questions arise as well as to the extent they are really representative of interindividual variability. QSARs for toxicokinetic properties is a complementary approach for PBTK model parameterisation, especially for data poor chemicals. This approach could be expanded to model chemico-biological interactions such as intestinal absorption and renal clearance; this could serve the development of more complex generic PBTK models that could be applied to newly derived chemicals. Another gap identified is the framework for mixture interaction terms among compounds that could eventually interact in metabolism. From the review it was concluded that efforts should be shifted toward the development of generic multi-compartmental and multi-route models, supported by targeted biomonitoring coupled with parameterisation by both QSAR approach and experimental (in-vivo and in-vitro) data for newly developed and data poor compounds.

Population pharmacokinetic reanalysis of a Diazepam PBPK model: a comparison of Stan and GNU MCSim

The aim of this study is to benchmark two Bayesian software tools, namely Stan and GNU MCSim, that use different Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the estimation of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model parameters. The software tools were applied and compared on the problem of updating the parameters of a Diazepam PBPK model, using time-concentration human data. Both tools produced very good fits at the individual and population levels, despite the fact that GNU MCSim is not able to consider multivariate distributions. Stan outperformed GNU MCSim in sampling efficiency, due to its almost uncorrelated sampling. However, GNU MCSim exhibited much faster convergence and performed better in terms of effective samples produced per unit of time.

Risk characterization of bisphenol-A in the Slovenian population starting from human biomonitoring data

The current study aims to characterize exposure and risk associated to bisphenol-A (BPA) exposure in Slovenia, starting from biomonitoring data. Based on the urinary data, daily intake for the individuals was back-calculated using a physiology based biokinetic (PBBK) model properly parameterized for BPA, coupled with an exposure reconstruction algorithm. Re-running the PBBK model in forward mode allowed the estimation of biologically effective dose (free plasma BPA) and the respective daily area under the curve (AUC). Finally, risk characterization ratio was derived using both external and internal dose metrics. The urinary BPA levels were found low, with GM of 0.79, 1.51 and 0.20 μg/g creatinine for mothers, children and fathers respectively, similar to the levels of other European countries. Based on the above and accounting for the dynamics of exposure and biokinetics, daily intake was estimated, median exposure levels have been estimated equal to 0.019, 0.035 and 0.005 μg/kg_bw/d for mothers, fathers and children respectively. The highest estimated intake level was found in a child, equal to 0.87 μg/kg_bw/d, while the maximum intake for mothers and fathers were 0.7 and 0.8 μg/kg_bw/d respectively. The respective RCR levels using the EFSA t-TDI of 4 μg/kg_bw/d were 2 magnitudes of order lower below 1, independently of the selected method. It has to be noted that had daily intake been estimated solely based on the urinary concentrations mass balance, the estimated intake would be lower, as a result of the oversimplification on exposure and elimination time dynamics. This highlights the importance for using PBBK modelling based exposure reconstruction schemes for rapidly metabolized and excreted compounds such as BPA, as well as the study design of efficient sampling for rapidly metabolized compounds.

Challenges Associated With Applying Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for Public Health Decision-Making

The development and application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in chemical toxicology have grown steadily since their emergence in the 1980s. However, critical evaluation of PBPK models to support public health decision-making across federal agencies has thus far occurred for only a few environmental chemicals. In order to encourage decision-makers to embrace the critical role of PBPK modeling in risk assessment, several important challenges require immediate attention from the modeling community. The objective of this contemporary review is to highlight 3 of these challenges, including: (1) difficulties in recruiting peer reviewers with appropriate modeling expertise and experience; (2) lack of confidence in PBPK models for which no tissue/plasma concentration data exist for model evaluation; and (3) lack of transferability across modeling platforms. Several recommendations for addressing these 3 issues are provided to initiate dialog among members of the PBPK modeling community, as these issues must be overcome for the field of PBPK modeling to advance and for PBPK models to be more routinely applied in support of public health decision-making.

A framework for application of quantitative property-property relationships (QPPRs) in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for high-throughput prediction of internal dose of inhaled organic chemicals

New generation of toxicological tests and assessment strategies require validated toxicokinetic data or models that are lacking for most chemicals. This study aimed at developing a quantitative property-property relationship (QPPR)-based human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling framework for high-throughput predictions of inhalation toxicokinetics of organic chemicals. A PBPK model was parameterized with QPPR-derived values for hepatic clearance (CL_h) and partition coefficients (P) [blood:air (P_ba) and tissue:air (P_ta) and tissue:blood (P_tb)]. The model was initially applied to an evaluation dataset of 40 organic chemicals in the applicability domain, and then to an expanded dataset of 249 organic chemicals from diverse chemical classes. 'Batch' analyses were performed for rapid assessments of hundreds of chemicals. The simulations of inhalation toxicokinetics following an 8-h exposure to 1 ppm of each chemical were successful. The mean ratios of their predicted-to-experimental values were within a factor of 1.36-2.36 for P_tb and 1.18 for CL_h, for 80% of the chemicals in the evaluation dataset. The predicted 24-h area under the venous blood concentration-time curve (AUC₂₄) values were within the predicted envelopes obtained while using experimental values of P_ba and considering either no or maximal hepatic extraction. The reliability analysis (based on combined sensitivity and uncertainty analyses) indicated that AUC₂₄ predictions for 55% of the expanded dataset were moderately to highly reliable, with 46% exhibiting highly reliable values. Overall, the modeling framework suggests that molecular structure and chemical properties can together be effectively used to obtain first-cut estimates of the toxicokinetics of data-poor organic chemicals for screening and prioritization purposes.

Exploration of sexual dimorphism and inter-individual variability in multivariate parameter spaces for a pharmacokinetic compartment model

Pharmacokinetic models are particularly useful to study the underlying and complex physiological mechanisms contributing to clinical differences across patient subgroups or special populations. Unfortunately, the inherent variability of biological systems and knowledge gaps in physiological data limit confidence in model predictions for special populations. Sourcing data to reflect the desired physiologies can be resource intensive, particularly for a larger model. Thus, a critical step in model development for special populations involves an in-depth analysis of model inputs, which can be guided by Monte Carlo simulations. Such an approach enables the generation of parameter values by stochastic sampling that are subsequently restricted to the combinations that describe biologically plausible or target model output. Our approach utilized a published pharmacokinetic compartmental model to demonstrate how sampling in conjunction with global sensitivity analysis can be used to explore sexual dimorphism and inter-individual variability in multivariate parameter spaces for differentiation of model input and behavior across phenotypes. Despite limiting the model output to relatively narrow ranges, male and female phenotypes were associated with wide variability in both individual parameter values and combinations of parameters. Through an integrated approach using a support vector machine, principal component analysis and global sensitivity analysis, our approach revealed that specific combinations of parameters gave rise to a certain phenotype, while individual parameters influenced the shape of plasma concentration profile. Augmenting analysis of the model input with global sensitivity analysis enabled an understanding of both sexual dimorphism and inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetics. While the current study revealed how model input could be separated by sex for a simple compartment model, the approach could be extended to other patient factors, such as age or disease, and to a more complex physiologically-based model that describes absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination with more detail.

PBTK model for assessment of operator exposure to haloxyfop using human biomonitoring and toxicokinetic data

Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are mathematical representations of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) in animals. Each parameter in a PBTK model describes a physiological, physicochemical or biochemical process that affects ADME. Distributions can be assigned to the model parameters to describe population variability and uncertainty. In this study to assess potential crop sprayer operator exposure to the herbicide haloxyfop, a permeability-limited PBTK model was constructed with parameter uncertainty and variability, and calibrated using Bayesian analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A hierarchical statistical model was developed to reconstruct operator exposure using available measurement data: experimentally determined octanol/water partition coefficient, mouse and human toxicokinetic data as well as human biomonitoring data from seven operators who participated in a field study. A chemical risk assessment was performed by comparing the estimated systemic exposure to the acceptable operator exposure level (AOEL). The analysis suggested that in one of the seven operators, the model estimates systemic exposure to haloxyfop of 49.04 ± 10.19 SD μg/kg bw in relation to an AOEL of 5.0 μg/kg bw/day. This does not represent a safety concern as this predicted exposure is well within the 100-fold uncertainty factor applied to the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) in animals. In addition, given the availability of human toxicokinetic data, the 10x uncertainty factor for interspecies differences in ADME could be reduced (EFSA, 2006). Thus the AOEL could potentially be raised tenfold from 5.0 to 50.0 μg/kg bw/day.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic-quantitative systems toxicology and safety (PBPK-QSTS) modeling approach applied to predict the variability of amitriptyline pharmacokinetics and cardiac safety in populations and in individuals

The physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models allow for predictive assessment of variability in population of interest. One of the future application of PBPK modeling is in the field of precision dosing and personalized medicine. The aim of the study was to develop PBPK model for amitriptyline given orally, predict the variability of cardiac concentrations of amitriptyline and its main metabolite-nortriptyline in populations as well as individuals, and simulate the influence of those xenobiotics in therapeutic and supratherapeutic concentrations on human electrophysiology. The cardiac effect with regard to QT and RR interval lengths was assessed. The Emax model to describe the relationship between amitriptyline concentration and heart rate (RR) length was proposed. The developed PBPK model was used to mimic 29 clinical trials and 19 cases of amitriptyline intoxication. Three clinical trials and 18 cases were simulated with the use of PBPK-QSTS approach, confirming lack of cardiotoxic effect of amitriptyline in therapeutic doses and the increase in heart rate along with potential for arrhythmia development in case of amitriptyline overdose. The results of our study support the validity and feasibility of the PBPK-QSTS modeling development for personalized medicine.

Bridging the Data Gap From in vitro Toxicity Testing to Chemical Safety Assessment Through Computational Modeling

Chemical toxicity testing is moving steadily toward a human cell and organoid-based in vitro approach for reasons including scientific relevancy, efficiency, cost, and ethical rightfulness. Inferring human health risk from chemical exposure based on in vitro testing data is a challenging task, facing various data gaps along the way. This review identifies these gaps and makes a case for the in silico approach of computational dose-response and extrapolation modeling to address many of the challenges. Mathematical models that can mechanistically describe chemical toxicokinetics (TK) and toxicodynamics (TD), for both in vitro and in vivo conditions, are the founding pieces in this regard. Identifying toxicity pathways and in vitro point of departure (PoD) associated with adverse health outcomes requires an understanding of the molecular key events in the interacting transcriptome, proteome, and metabolome. Such an understanding will in turn help determine the sets of sensitive biomarkers to be measured in vitro and the scope of toxicity pathways to be modeled in silico. In vitro data reporting both pathway perturbation and chemical biokinetics in the culture medium serve to calibrate the toxicity pathway and virtual tissue models, which can then help predict PoDs in response to chemical dosimetry experienced by cells in vivo. Two types of in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) are needed. (1) For toxic effects involving systemic regulations, such as endocrine disruption, organism-level adverse outcome pathway (AOP) models are needed to extrapolate in vitro toxicity pathway perturbation to in vivo PoD. (2) Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) modeling is needed to extrapolate in vitro PoD dose metrics into external doses for expected exposure scenarios. Linked PBTK and TD models can explore the parameter space to recapitulate human population variability in response to chemical insults. While challenges remain for applying these modeling tools to support in vitro toxicity testing, they open the door toward population-stratified and personalized risk assessment.

Probabilistic risk assessment of gold nanoparticles after intravenous administration by integrating in vitro and in vivo toxicity with physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling

This study aimed to conduct an integrated and probabilistic risk assessment of gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) based on recently published in vitro and in vivo toxicity studies coupled to a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Dose-response relationships were characterized based on cell viability assays in various human cell types. A previously well-validated human PBPK model for AuNPs was applied to quantify internal concentrations in liver, kidney, skin, and venous plasma. By applying a Bayesian-based probabilistic risk assessment approach incorporating Monte Carlo simulation, probable human cell death fractions were characterized. Additionally, we implemented in vitro to in vivo and animal-to-human extrapolation approaches to independently estimate external exposure levels of AuNPs that cause minimal toxicity. Our results suggest that under the highest dosing level employed in existing animal studies (worst-case scenario), AuNPs coated with branched polyethylenimine (BPEI) would likely induce ∼90-100% cellular death, implying high cytotoxicity compared to <10% cell death induced by low-to-medium animal dosing levels, which are commonly used in animal studies. The estimated human equivalent doses associated with 5% cell death in liver and kidney were around 1 and 3 mg/kg, respectively. Based on points of departure reported in animal studies, the human equivalent dose estimates associated with gene expression changes and tissue cell apoptosis in liver were 0.005 and 0.5 mg/kg, respectively. Our analyzes provide insights into safety evaluation, risk prediction, and point of departure estimation of AuNP exposure for humans and illustrate an approach that could be applied to other NPs when sufficient data are available.

Modeling Pharmacokinetics

Pharmacokinetics is the study of the fate of xenobiotics in a living organism. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models provide realistic descriptions of xenobiotics' absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion processes. They model the body as a set of homogeneous compartments representing organs, and their parameters refer to anatomical, physiological, biochemical, and physicochemical entities. They offer a quantitative mechanistic framework to understand and simulate the time-course of the concentration of a substance in various organs and body fluids. These models are well suited for performing extrapolations inherent to toxicology and pharmacology (e.g., between species or doses) and for integrating data obtained from various sources (e.g., in vitro or in vivo experiments, structure-activity models). In this chapter, we describe the practical development and basic use of a PBPK model from model building to model simulations, through implementation with an easily accessible free software.

Mechanistic Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Model of the Heart Accounting for Inter-Individual Variability: Development and Performance Verification

Modern model-based approaches to cardiac safety and efficacy assessment require accurate drug concentration-effect relationship establishment. Thus, knowledge of the active concentration of drugs in heart tissue is desirable along with inter-subject variability influence estimation. To that end, we developed a mechanistic physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of the heart. The models were described with literature-derived parameters and written in R, v.3.4.0. Five parameters were estimated. The model was fitted to amitriptyline and nortriptyline concentrations after an intravenous infusion of amitriptyline. The cardiac model consisted of 5 compartments representing the pericardial fluid, heart extracellular water, and epicardial intracellular, midmyocardial intracellular, and endocardial intracellular fluids. Drug cardiac metabolism, passive diffusion, active efflux, and uptake were included in the model as mechanisms involved in the drug disposition within the heart. The model accounted for inter-individual variability. The estimates of optimized parameters were within physiological ranges. The model performance was verified by simulating 5 clinical studies of amitriptyline intravenous infusion, and the simulated pharmacokinetic profiles agreed with clinical data. The results support the model feasibility. The proposed structure can be tested with the goal of improving the patient-specific model-based cardiac safety assessment and offers a framework for predicting cardiac concentrations of various xenobiotics.

Ab initio chemical safety assessment: A workflow based on exposure considerations and non-animal methods

We describe and illustrate a workflow for chemical safety assessment that completely avoids animal testing. The workflow, which was developed within the SEURAT-1 initiative, is designed to be applicable to cosmetic ingredients as well as to other types of chemicals, e.g. active ingredients in plant protection products, biocides or pharmaceuticals. The aim of this work was to develop a workflow to assess chemical safety without relying on any animal testing, but instead constructing a hypothesis based on existing data, in silico modelling, biokinetic considerations and then by targeted non-animal testing. For illustrative purposes, we consider a hypothetical new ingredient x as a new component in a body lotion formulation. The workflow is divided into tiers in which points of departure are established through in vitro testing and in silico prediction, as the basis for estimating a safe external dose in a repeated use scenario. The workflow includes a series of possible exit (decision) points, with increasing levels of confidence, based on the sequential application of the Threshold of Toxicological (TTC) approach, read-across, followed by an "ab initio" assessment, in which chemical safety is determined entirely by new in vitro testing and in vitro to in vivo extrapolation by means of mathematical modelling. We believe that this workflow could be applied as a tool to inform targeted and toxicologically relevant in vitro testing, where necessary, and to gain confidence in safety decision making without the need for animal testing.

High-Throughput Analysis of Ovarian Cycle Disruption by Mixtures of Aromatase Inhibitors

BACKGROUND

Combining computational toxicology with ExpoCast exposure estimates and ToxCast™ assay data gives us access to predictions of human health risks stemming from exposures to chemical mixtures.

OBJECTIVES

We explored, through mathematical modeling and simulations, the size of potential effects of random mixtures of aromatase inhibitors on the dynamics of women's menstrual cycles.

METHODS

We simulated random exposures to millions of potential mixtures of 86 aromatase inhibitors. A pharmacokinetic model of intake and disposition of the chemicals predicted their internal concentration as a function of time (up to 2 y). A ToxCast™ aromatase assay provided concentration-inhibition relationships for each chemical. The resulting total aromatase inhibition was input to a mathematical model of the hormonal hypothalamus-pituitary-ovarian control of ovulation in women.

RESULTS

Above 10% inhibition of estradiol synthesis by aromatase inhibitors, noticeable (eventually reversible) effects on ovulation were predicted. Exposures to individual chemicals never led to such effects. In our best estimate, ∼10% of the combined exposures simulated had mild to catastrophic impacts on ovulation. A lower bound on that figure, obtained using an optimistic exposure scenario, was 0.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate the possibility to predict large-scale mixture effects for endocrine disrupters with a predictive toxicology approach that is suitable for high-throughput ranking and risk assessment. The size of the effects predicted is consistent with an increased risk of infertility in women from everyday exposures to our chemical environment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP742.