Agricultural modifications of hydrological flows create ecological surprises

A new multivariate index for ecological security assessment in the China-Myanmar border region

The coordination of development efforts and ecological conservation in China's border regions is a significant challenge due to the overlap of biodiversity hotspots, ecologically fragile zones, and impoverished areas. Achieving the harmonious integration of ecological preservation and economic development relies on the fundamental assessment of ecological security (ES). However, comprehensive assessments of ES in border regions remain limited. This study introduces a new index, the multivariate ecological security index (MESI), which integrates ecosystem vigor, organization, elasticity, services and risk. Here, the MESI was utilized to assess the temporal and spatial changes in ES and its associated impact factors in the China-Myanmar border region (CMBR) from 2000 to 2020. The MESI provides a clear representation of the actual ES status in the CMBR, exhibiting a significant correlation with the eco-environmental quality index (EEQI; p < 0.01). The ES status exhibited notable spatial heterogeneity in the CMBR, consisting primarily of both relatively safe and safe levels, which accounted for approximately 85% of the total area. From 2000 to 2020, the CMBR experienced a gradual improvement in ES status, with the area experiencing an increase in the ES level accounting for 23.41% of the total area, which exceeded the proportion of the area experiencing a decrease in the ES level (4.71%). The combined impact of multiple factors exerted a greater influence on ES than did individual factors alone. Notably, human factors increasingly influenced the ES status during the study period. The results of this study provide valuable insights for ecological preservation and sustainable management in the CMBR, and the MESI can be extended to assess the ES of other regions.

Effects of Micro-Topography and Vegetation on Soil Moisture on Fixed Sand Dunes in Tengger Desert, China

Soil moisture is a key factor in arid ecosystems, with local variations influenced by topography and vegetation. Understanding this relationship is crucial for combating desertification. Employing ANOVA, Mean Decrease Accuracy (MDA) analysis from random forest modeling and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), this study investigates the distribution of soil moisture and its associations with topographic and vegetative factors across four micro-geomorphic units in the Tengger Desert, China. Significant heterogeneity in soil moisture across various layers and locations, including windward and leeward slopes and the tops and bottoms of dunes, was observed. Soil moisture generally increases from the surface down to 300 cm, with diminishing fluctuations at greater depths. Soil moisture peaks in the surface and middle layers on windward slopes and in deep layers at the bottom of dunes, exhibiting an initial rise and then a decline on windward slopes. Topographic (including slope direction and elevation difference) and vegetation (including shrub and herb coverage) factors significantly influence soil moisture across three depth layers. Topographic factors negatively affect soil moisture directly, whereas vegetation positively influences it indirectly, with shrub and herb abundance enhancing moisture levels. These insights inform ecological management and the formulation of soil moisture-conservation strategies in arid deserts. The study underscores customizing sand-binding vegetation to various micro-geomorphic dune units.

Un-yielding: Evidence for the agriculture transformation we need

There has been a seismic shift in the center of gravity of scientific writing and thinking about agriculture over the past decades, from a prevailing focus on maximizing yields toward a goal of balancing trade-offs and ensuring the delivery of multiple ecosystem services. Maximizing crop yields often results in a system where most benefits accrue to very few (in the form of profits), alongside irreparable environmental harm to agricultural ecosystems, landscapes, and people. Here, we present evidence that an un-yielding, which we define as de-emphasizing the importance of yields alone, is necessary to achieve the goal of a more Food secure, Agrobiodiverse, Regenerative, Equitable and just (FARE) agriculture. Focusing on yields places the emphasis on one particular outcome of agriculture, which is only an intermediate means to the true endpoint of human well-being. Using yields as a placeholder for this outcome ignores the many other benefits of agriculture that people also care about, like health, livelihoods, and a sense of place. Shifting the emphasis to these multiple benefits rather than merely yields, and to their equitable delivery to all people, we find clear scientific evidence of win-wins for people and nature through four strategies that foster FARE agriculture: reduced disturbance, systems reintegration, diversity, and justice (in the form of securing rights to land and other resources). Through a broad review of the current state of agriculture, desired futures, and the possible pathways to reach them, we argue that while trade-offs between some ecosystem services in agriculture are unavoidable, the same need not be true of the end benefits we desire from them.

Increased river flow enhances the resilience of spatially patterned mudflats to erosion

Estuarine mudflats are profoundly affected by increased coastal erosion and reduced sediment delivery from major rivers. Although managers are having difficulties to control the cause of increased coastal erosion, they can help to manage the resilience of mudflat ecosystems to erosion through river flow regulation. In this study, we associated the resilience of a mudflat ecosystem to erosion with various magnitudes of river flow using a mechanism-based eco-morphodynamic model. Ecosystem resilience was reported in terms of i) what range of erosion rate the system can withstand before function collapse (persistence), ii) at which point function can be recovered (recovery), and iii) the uncertainty of system response to disturbances (response uncertainty). Specifically, the function of intertidal mudflat was characterized by landscape heterogeneity, primary productivity, and sediment stabilization. In a case study of the Yellow River Estuary (YRE) of China, it is found that increased erosion induced a collapse of the functioning state. Once collapsed, the erosion rate at which mudflat could recovered was lower than the erosion rate at which mudflat collapsed. Increased river flow enhanced the resilience of the mudflat ecosystem to erosion by increasing sediment deposition rate, which was an important attribute in the interaction process driving ecosystem resilience. Furthermore, given the same river flow allocation, the system with dynamic grazer population was more resilient than the system with a constant grazer number, highlighting the importance of controlling mudflat aquaculture to optimize the performance of river flow regulation. Our modeling results are dependent on the environment with several assumptions, however, as a preliminary, we believe our work represents a fundamental shift to modeling ecosystem resilience based on the mechanism of bio-physical interactions rather than relying on just quantifying the vital rates of particular species to compare river flow scenarios.

A metric-based analysis on the effects of riparian and catchment landuse on macroinvertebrates

Woody riparian vegetation along rivers and streams provides multiple functions beneficial for aquatic macroinvertebrate communities. They retain fine sediments, nutrients and pesticides, improve channel hydromorphology, control water temperature and primary production through shading and provide leaves, twigs and large wood. In a recent conceptual model (Feld et al., 2018), woody riparian functions were considered either independent from large-scale landuse stressors (e.g. shading, input of organic matter), or dependent on landuse at larger spatial scales (e.g. fine sediment, nutrient and pesticide retention). We tested this concept using high-resolution data on woody riparian vegetation cover and empirical data from 1017 macroinvertebrate sampling sites in German lowland and mountain streams. Macroinvertebrate metrics indicative for individual functions were used as response variables in structural equation models (SEM), representing the hierarchical structure between the different considered stressors at different spatial scales: catchment, upstream riparian, local riparian and local landuse cover along with hydromorphology and water quality. The analysis only partly confirmed the conceptual model: Biotic integrity and water quality were strongly related to large-scale stressors as expected (absolute total effect 0.345-0.541), but against expectations, fine sediments retention, considered scale-dependent in the conceptual model, was poorly explained by large-scale stressors (absolute total effect 0.027-0.231). While most functions considered independent from large-scale landuse were partly explained by riparian landuse cover (absolute total effect 0.023-0.091) they also were nonetheless affected by catchment landuse cover (absolute total effect 0.017-0.390). While many empirical case studies at smaller spatial scales clearly document the positive effects of restoring woody riparian vegetation, our results suggest that most effects of riparian landuse cover are possibly superimposed by larger-scale stressors. This does not negate localized effects of woody riparian vegetation but helps contextualize limitations to successful restoration measures targeting the macroinvertebrate community.

Water and sectoral policies in agriculture-forest frontiers: An expanded interdisciplinary research approach

Major land use changes such as deforestation and restoration influence water resources in agriculture-forest landscapes. Changes are observed in water flows, groundwater infiltration, water quality and rainfall. Interdisciplinary water-forest research has unravelled biophysical parts of the interplay that influences forest and water resources. In this Perspective paper, we propose an expanded interdisciplinary research approach to study water and policies in agriculture-forest frontiers. The approach differs in four important aspects from previous ones: (i) a conceptual 'frontier' understanding; an analytical focus on (ii) agriculture and (iii) policy-water linkages; (iv) empirical attention to northern and southern countries. The approach is put into practice with the "Pendulum" framework, with interventions and the agriculture-forest frontier oscillating over time between exploitation and restoration. Through the approach, a better understanding will be provided on the dynamic interplay of water and policies in oscillating agriculture-forest frontiers, with changing outcomes for people and environment.

Humans in the upstream can exacerbate climate change impacts on water birds' habitat in the downstream

The present paper aims to quantify how human-made changes in the upstream exacerbate climate change impacts on water birds' habitat in the downstream. To reduce climate change effects and design adaptation policies, it is important to identify whether human activities understate or overstate the effects of climate change in a region on its inhabitants. This paper also shows how human activities may magnify climate change impacts both locally and regionally. Land-use/land-cover change as the important sign of human-made destruction in an ecosystem was detected in the upstream of the Helmand basin over 40 years. Owing to conflicts in Afghanistan, studies on this basin are rare. The water bird's habitat suitability maps during the study period were created using the maximum entropy model and the multi-criteria evaluation method. The post-classification method was applied to show the land-use/land-cover change over 40 years. These results were compared to the area of suitable habitat for water birds. The findings of these analyses indicated that the irrigated farming was expanded in the upstream despite climate change and water limitation, while the water birds' habitat in the downstream was declined. These results revealed that the unsustainable pattern of farming and blocking water behind dams in the upstream exacerbated the negative effects of climate change on water birds' habitat in the downstream. The significance of this study is to demonstrate the role of human in exacerbating climate change impacts both locally and regionally.

Hydrological processing of salinity and nitrate in the Salinas Valley agricultural watershed

Regime shifts of major salinity constituents (Ca, Mg, Na, K, SO₄, Cl, HCO₃, and NO₃) in the lower Salinas River, an agricultural ecosystem, can have major impacts on ecosystem services central to continued agricultural production in the region. Regime shifts are large, persistent, and often abrupt changes in the structure and dynamics of social-ecological systems that occur when there is a reorganization of the dominant feedbacks in the system. Monitoring information on changes in the system state, controlling variables, and feedbacks is a crucial contributor to applying sustainability and ecosystem resilience at an operational level. To better understand the factors driving salinization of the lower Salinas River on the central coast of California, we examined a 27-year record of concentrations of major salinity constituents in the river. Although limited in providing an understanding of solute flux behavior during storm events, long-term "grab sampling" datasets with accompanying stream discharges can be used to estimate the actual history of concentrations and fluxes. We developed new concentration-discharge relationships to evaluate the dynamics of chemical weathering, hydrological processes, and agricultural practices in the watershed. Examinations of long-term records of surface water and groundwater salinity are required to provide both understanding and perspective towards managing salinity in arid and semi-arid regions while also enabling determination of the influence of external climatic variability and internal drivers in the system. We found that rock weathering is the main source of Ca, Mg, Na, HCO₃, and SO₄ in the river that further enables ion exchange between Ca, Mg, and Na. River concentrations of K, NO₃, and Cl were associated with human activities while agricultural practices were the major source of K and NO₃. A more direct anthropogenic positive trend in NO₃ that has persisted since the mid-1990s is associated with the lag or memory effects of field cropping and use of flood irrigation. Event to inter-year scale patterns in the lower Salinas River salinity are further controlled by antecedent hydrologic conditions. This study underscores the importance of obtaining long-term monitoring records towards understanding watershed changes-of-state and time constants on the range of driving processes.

Ecosystem service lens reveals diverse community values of small-scale fisheries

The ocean provides benefits to coastal communities around the world, however, the depth and complexity of people's interactions with marine ecosystems are not well represented in many marine management initiatives. Many fisheries are managed to maximize provisioning value, which is readily quantified, while ignoring cultural values. An ecosystem services approach that includes both provisioning and cultural services will enable managers to better account for the diverse values marine fisheries provide to coastal communities. In this study, we assess community values related to a top fished species, the Mexican chocolate clam, Megapitaria squalida, in Loreto, Baja California Sur, Mexico. We conducted an exploratory analysis based on 42 household surveys, and found that community members perceive multiple provisioning and cultural benefits from the clam, including community economic, historical, and identity values. Despite reporting infrequent harvest and consumption of clams, participants perceive the species as an important part of community identity, highlighting the role of Mexican chocolate clams as a cultural keystone species in the Loreto region. Fisheries management that recognizes the full range of ecosystem services a species contributes to coastal communities will be better equipped to sustain these diverse values into the future.

Hydrologic Analysis of an Intensively Irrigated Area in Southern Peru Using a Crop-Field Scale Framework

Majes is one of the largest agricultural areas in the Arequipa region (southern Peru). Low seasonal precipitation and increasing water demands for agricultural irrigation, industry, and human consumption have made water supply projections a major concern. Agricultural development is becoming more extensive in this dry, sunny climate where crops can be grown year-round. However, because this type of project usually involves significant perturbations to the regional water cycle, understanding the effects of irrigation on local hydrology is crucial. Based on the watershed-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), this investigation focuses on the impacts of intensive irrigation on hydrological responses in the Majes region. This study is unique because we allow for crop-field scale input within our regional-scale model to provide information at this smaller scale, which is important to inform local stakeholders and decision makers. Each hydrologic response unit (HRU) was generated to represent an individual crop field, so that management practices could be applied according to real-world scenarios. The management file of each HRU was modified to include different operation schedules for crop rotation, irrigation, harvest, and tillage. The model was calibrated and validated against monthly observed stream discharge during the 2009–2020 period. Additionally, evapotranspiration, irrigation water volume, and daily stream discharge downstream of the local river (Siguas) were used to verify the model performance. A total of 49 sub-basins and 4222 HRUs were created, with 3000 HRUs designated to represent individual crop fields. The simulation results revealed that infiltration from agricultural activities in Majes represents the majority of annual groundwater return flow, which makes a substantial contribution to streamflow downstream of the Siguas River. Simulations also suggested that groundwater flow processes and the interactions between surface and groundwater have a major impact on the water balance of the study area. Additionally, climate variability had a higher impact on surface runoff than on groundwater return flow, illustrating that the groundwater component in the study area is important for future water resources resiliency under expected climate change scenarios. Finally, there is a need to perform a follow-up implementation to provide a guideline for decision-makers to assess future sustainable water resources management under varying climatic conditions for this arid irrigated system.

Impacts of multiple anthropogenic stressors on stream macroinvertebrate community composition and functional diversity

Ensuring the provision of essential ecosystem services in systems affected by multiple stressors is a key challenge for theoretical and applied ecology. Trait-based approaches have increasingly been used in multiple-stressor research in freshwaters because they potentially provide a powerful method to explore the mechanisms underlying changes in populations and communities. Individual benthic macroinvertebrate traits associated with mobility, life history, morphology, and feeding habits are often used to determine how environmental drivers structure stream communities. However, to date multiple-stressor research on stream invertebrates has focused more on taxonomic than on functional metrics. We conducted a fully crossed, 4-factor experiment in 64 stream mesocosms fed by a pristine montane stream (21 days of colonization, 21 days of manipulations) and investigated the effects of nutrient enrichment, flow velocity reduction and sedimentation on invertebrate community, taxon, functional diversity and trait variables after 2 and 3 weeks of stressor exposure. 89% of the community structure metrics, 59% of the common taxa, 50% of functional diversity metrics, and 79% of functional traits responded to at least one stressor each. Deposited fine sediment and flow velocity reduction had the strongest impacts, affecting invertebrate abundances and diversity, and their effects translated into a reduction of functional redundancy. Stressor effects often varied between sampling occasions, further complicating the prediction of multiple-stressor effects on communities. Overall, our study suggests that future research combining community, trait, and functional diversity assessments can improve our understanding of multiple-stressor effects and their interactions in running waters.

Fine sediment and flow velocity impact bacterial community and functional profile more than nutrient enrichment

Freshwater ecosystems face many simultaneous pressures due to human activities. Consequently, there has been a rapid loss of freshwater biodiversity and an increase in biomonitoring programs. Our study assessed the potential of benthic stream bacterial communities as indicators of multiple-stressor impacts associated with urbanization and agricultural intensification. We conducted a fully crossed four-factor experiment in 64 flow-through mesocosms fed by a pristine montane stream (21 d of colonization, 21 d of manipulations) and investigated the effects of nutrient enrichment, flow-velocity reduction and added fine sediment after 2 and 3 weeks of stressor exposure. We used high-throughput sequencing and metabarcoding techniques (16S rRNA genes), as well as curated biological databases (METAGENassit, MetaCyc), to identify changes in bacterial relative abundances and predicted metabolic functional profile. Sediment addition and flow-velocity reduction were the most pervasive stressors. They both increased α-diversity and had strong taxon-specific effects on community composition and predicted functions. Sediment and flow velocity also interacted frequently, with 88% of all bacterial response variables showing two-way interactions and 33% showing three-way interactions including nutrient enrichment. Changes in relative abundances of common taxa were associated with shifts in dominant predicted functions, which can be extrapolated to underlaying stream-wide mechanisms such as carbon use and bacterial energy production pathways. Observed changes were largely stable over time and occurred after just 2 weeks of exposure, demonstrating that bacterial communities can be well-suited for early detection of multiple stressors. Overall, added sediment and reduced flow velocity impacted both bacterial community structure and predicted function more than nutrient enrichment. In future research and stream management, a holistic approach to studying multiple-stressor impacts should include multiple trophic levels with their functional responses, to enhance our mechanistic understanding of complex stressor effects and promote establishment of more efficient biomonitoring programs.

Knowledge Production for Resilient Landscapes: Experiences from Multi-Stakeholder Dialogues on Water, Food, Forests, and Landscapes

Landscape-wide approaches integrating agriculture, forestry, energy, and water are considered key to address complex environmental problems and to avoid trade-offs. The objective of this paper is to analyse how knowledge production through multi-stakeholder dialogues on water, landscapes, forests, and agriculture can inform governance and the management of landscapes. Multi-stakeholder learning dialogues and platforms (MSPs) were established related to water and natural resources management, complemented by targeted reviews, to establish a shared understanding of the drivers of change and impacts on the hydrology of landscapes and ecosystem services. The MSP dialogues illustrate the need to address water as an integral part of landscape management and governance to achieve the wide range of the Sustainable Development Goals related to water and food security, climate action, life on land, as well as sustainable production and consumption, equality, and strong institutions. The co-production of knowledge through MSPs contributes to continuous learning that informs adaptive management of water flows in landscapes, above and below ground, as well as in the atmosphere. It helps to build a shared understanding of system dynamics and integrate knowledge about hydrology and water flows into policy recommendations. Co-production of knowledge also contributes to stakeholder participation at different levels, inclusiveness, and transparency, and to water stewardship.

Dissolved Organic Matter Quality and Biofilm Composition Affect Microbial Organic Matter Uptake in Stream Flumes

Agriculture delivers significant amounts of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to streams, thereby changing the composition and biodegradability of the aquatic DOM. This study focuses on the interactive effects of DOM quality and biofilm composition on the degradation of DOM in a laboratory flume experiment. Half of the flumes were exposed to light to stimulate algal growth, the other half was shaded. Leachates of deciduous leaves, maize leaves, and cow dung were added to the flumes in a single pulse and changes of DOC (dissolved organic carbon) and nutrient concentrations, DOM composition (absorbance and fluorescence data), chlorophyll-a concentrations, bacterial abundances, and enzymatic activities were recorded over a week. DOM was taken up with rates of 50, 109, and 136 µg DOC L−1 h−1 for dung, leaf, and maize leachates, respectively, in the light flumes and 37, 80, and 170 µg DOC L−1 h−1 in the dark flumes. DOC uptake correlated strongly with initial SRP (soluble reactive phosphorus) and DOC concentrations, but barely with DOM components and indices. Algae mostly stimulated the microbial DOC uptake, but the effects differed among differently aged biofilms. We developed a conceptual model of intrinsic (DOM quality) and external (environmental) controlling factors on DOM degradation, with the microbial community acting as biotic filter.

Uncovering Dryland Woody Dynamics Using Optical, Microwave, and Field Data—Prolonged Above-Average Rainfall Paradoxically Contributes to Woody Plant Die-Off in the Western Sahel

Dryland ecosystems are frequently struck by droughts. Yet, woody vegetation is often able to recover from mortality events once precipitation returns to pre-drought conditions. Climate change, however, may impact woody vegetation resilience due to more extreme and frequent droughts. Thus, better understanding how woody vegetation responds to drought events is essential. We used a phenology-based remote sensing approach coupled with field data to estimate the severity and recovery rates of a large scale die-off event that occurred in 2014–2015 in Senegal. Novel low (L-band) and high-frequency (Ku-band) passive microwave vegetation optical depth (VOD), and optical MODIS data, were used to estimate woody vegetation dynamics. The relative importance of soil, human-pressure, and before-drought vegetation dynamics influencing the woody vegetation response to the drought were assessed. The die-off in 2014–2015 represented the highest dry season VOD drop for the studied period (1989–2017), even though the 2014 drought was not as severe as the droughts in the 1980s and 1990s. The spatially explicit Die-off Severity Index derived in this study, at 500 m resolution, highlights woody plants mortality in the study area. Soil physical characteristics highly affected die-off severity and post-disturbance recovery, but pre-drought biomass accumulation (i.e., in areas that benefited from above-normal rainfall conditions before the 2014 drought) was the most important variable in explaining die-off severity. This study provides new evidence supporting a better understanding of the “greening Sahel”, suggesting that a sudden increase in woody vegetation biomass does not necessarily imply a stable ecosystem recovery from the droughts in the 1980s. Instead, prolonged above-normal rainfall conditions prior to a drought may result in the accumulation of woody biomass, creating the basis for potentially large-scale woody vegetation die-off events due to even moderate dry spells.

Sustainability transformations: socio-political shocks as opportunities for governance transitions

Faced with accelerating environmental challenges, research on social-ecological systems is increasingly focused on the need for transformative change towards sustainable stewardship of natural resources. This paper analyses the potential of rapid, large-scale socio-political change as a window of opportunity for transformative change of natural resources governance. We hypothesize that shocks at higher levels of social organization may open up opportunities for transformation of social-ecological systems into new pathways of development. However, opportunities need to be carefully navigated otherwise transformations may stall or lead the social-ecological system in undesirable directions. We investigate (i) under which circumstances socio-political change has been used by actors as a window of opportunity for initiating transformation towards sustainable natural resource governance, (ii) how the different levels of the systems (landscape, regime and niche) interact to pave the way for initiating such transformations and (iii) which key features (cognitive, structural and agency-related) get mobilized for transformation. This is achieved through analyzing natural resource governance regimes of countries that have been subject to rapid, large-scale political change: water governance in South Africa and Uzbekistan and governance of coastal fisheries in Chile. In South Africa the political and economic change of the end of the apartheid regime resulted in a transformation of the water governance regime while in Uzbekistan after the breakdown of the Soviet Union change both at the economic and political scales and within the water governance regime remained superficial. In Chile the democratization process after the Pinochet era was used to transform the governance of coastal fisheries. The paper concludes with important insight on key capacities needed to navigate transformation towards biosphere stewardship. The study also contributes to a more nuanced view on the relationship between collapse and renewal.

Influence of Farming Intensity and Climate on Lowland Stream Nitrogen

Nitrogen lost from agriculture has altered the geochemistry of the biosphere, with pronounced impacts on aquatic ecosystems. We aim to elucidate the patterns and driving factors behind the N fluxes in lowland stream ecosystems differing about land-use and climatic-hydrological conditions. The climate-hydrology areas represented humid cold temperate/stable discharge conditions, and humid subtropical climate/flashy conditions. Three complementary monitoring sampling characteristics were selected, including a total of 43 streams under contrasting farming intensities. Farming intensity determined total dissolved N (TDN), nitrate concentrations, and total N concentration and loss to streams, despite differences in soil and climatic-hydrological conditions between and within regions. However, ammonium (NH4+) and dissolved organic N concentrations did not show significant responses to the farming intensity or climatic/hydrological conditions. A high dissolved inorganic N to TDN ratio was associated with the temperate climate and high base flow conditions, but not with farming intensity. In the absence of a significant increase in farming N use efficiency (or the introduction of other palliative measures), the expected farming intensification would result in a stronger increase in NO3−, TDN, and TN concentrations as well as in rising flow-weighted concentrations and loss in temperate and subtropical streams, which will further exacerbate eutrophication.

Disentangling the mechanisms underpinning disturbance-mediated invasion

Disturbances can play a major role in biological invasions: by destroying biomass, they alter habitat and resource abundances. Previous field studies suggest that disturbance-mediated invader success is a consequence of resource influxes, but the importance of other potential covarying causes, notably the opening up of habitats, have yet to be directly tested. Using experimental populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens, we determined the relative importance of disturbance-mediated habitat opening and resource influxes, plus any interaction between them, for invader success of two ecologically distinct morphotypes. Resource addition increased invasibility, while habitat opening had little impact and did not interact with resource addition. Both invaders behaved similarly, despite occupying different ecological niches in the microcosms. Treatment also affected the composition of the resident population, which further affected invader success. Our results provide experimental support for the observation that resource input is a key mechanism through which disturbance increases invasibility.

River nutrient water and sediment measurements inform on nutrient retention, with implications for eutrophication

The consideration of nutrients in pollution dynamics is important for environmental management and conservation. Developing countries are yet to appreciate the aquatic ecosystem pollution impacts on their economies and as such, information on water pollution dynamics is limited. This study assessed the spatio-temporal dynamics of nutrient loading and retention in stream water and sediments in the Bloukrans River system, Eastern Cape province, South Africa over the course of the wet and dry season. Sediment and water samples were analysed for total phosphorus (TP) and nitrogen (TN) concentrations, and were used in combination with river flow discharge, to determine nutrient loads. The study results highlight that river discharge plays a significant role in temporal differences in sediment and water column nutrient concentrations. The mean sediment nutrient concentration was high for the dry season, with high values being observed for the urban river system. Nutrient loads were high above the sewage treatment works outflow (i.e. urban sites), as such, a decreasing trend was observed with increasing distance from the urban environment. Nutrient loads were generally high for the dry season in comparison to the wet season indicating organic matter retention (i.e. accumulation from burst sewage pipes) most likely due to low flows. While it was evident that the ageing wastewater infrastructure contributed to the observed state of the Bloukrans River, the high natural nutrient retention capacity seemed to mitigate eutrophication of downstream aquatic ecosystems. As such, the nutrient retention capacity and management of the system is central to the entire Bloukrans River catchment management practices. Therefore, the study contributes to our understanding of water and sediment nutrient pollution dynamics in an arid temperate river landscape where vast spatio-temporal differences in base flow characterise the riverscape.

Habitat associations of bats in a working rangeland landscape

Land-use change has resulted in rangeland loss and degradation globally. These changes include conversion of native grasslands for row-crop agriculture as well as degradation of remaining rangeland due to fragmentation and changing disturbance regimes. Understanding how these and other factors influence wildlife use of rangelands is important for conservation and management of wildlife populations. We investigated bat habitat associations in a working rangeland in southeastern North Dakota. We used Petterson d500x acoustic detectors to systematically sample bat activity across the study area on a 1-km point grid. We identified calls using Sonobat autoclassification software. We detected five species using this working rangeland, which included Lasionycteris noctivagans (2,722 detections), Lasiurus cinereus (2,055 detections), Eptesicus fuscus (749 detections), Lasiurus borealis (62 detections), and Myotis lucifugus (1 detection). We developed generalized linear mixed-effects models for the four most frequently detected species based on their ecology. The activity of three bat species increased with higher tree cover. While the scale of selection varied between the four species, all three investigated scales were explanatory for at least one bat species. The broad importance of trees to bats in rangelands may put their conservation needs at odds with those of obligate grassland species. Focusing rangeland bat conservation on areas that were treed prior to European settlement, such as riparian forests, can provide important areas for bat conservation while minimizing negative impacts on grassland species.

Decoupled water-sediment interactions restrict the phosphorus buffer mechanism in agricultural streams

Our study aimed to explore the effects of agriculture on the phosphorus buffer capacity of 11 headwater streams in Austria. We used phosphorus adsorption curves and re-suspension experiments to determine both, the potential of the sediments to act as phosphorus source or sink and the actual phosphorus exchange between water and sediments. Additionally, we determined the alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) in epilithic and epipsammic biofilms as indicator for the phosphorus demand of the benthic and hyporheic community. We hypothesized that highly polluted streams will show decreased phosphorus buffer capacities, which were either due to saturation or restricted water-sediment interactions. Our results support the second hypothesis. Fine sediment accumulations, organic matter content, and phosphorus concentrations in water and sediments increased with percent cropland in the catchment. Below SRP concentrations of 120μgL^-1 in the stream water, sediments showed a high potential for phosphorus release, with zero equilibrium phosphorus concentrations (EPC₀) being more than twice as high as SRP concentrations. Above 150μgL^-1, EPC₀ reached only 20-50% of SRP concentrations, indicating a high potential of the sediments to act as phosphorus sinks. These findings were confirmed by phosphorus uptake of these sediments during re-suspension. While APA in epilithic biofilms decreased with increasing SRP concentrations, APA in epipsammic biofilms showed the reverse pattern, indicating a restricted phosphorus supply of the hyporheic community despite phosphorus surplus in the water column. Our study shows that inputs of fine sediments from agricultural sources may reduce the phosphorus buffering mechanism of stream sediments through restrictions of water-sediment interactions. Consequently, water column and sediment processes are increasingly decoupled and phosphorus-rich stream water will not effectively reach the reactive sites in the sediments responsible for uptake. Therefore, phosphorus mitigation measures in stream ecosystems must comprise sediment management in the catchment as well as in-stream measures for the rehabilitation of the hyporheic zone.

Managing Multiple Catchment Demands for Sustainable Water Use and Ecosystem Service Provision

Ensuring water, food and energy security for a growing world population represents a 21st century catchment management challenge. Failure to recognise the complexity of interactions across ecosystem service provision can risk the loss of other key environmental and socioeconomic benefits from the natural capital of catchment systems. In particular, the ability of soil and water to meet human needs is undermined by uncertainties around climate change effects, ecosystem service interactions and conflicting stakeholder interests across catchments. This critical review draws from an extensive literature to discuss the benefits and challenges of utilising an ecosystem service approach for integrated catchment management (ICM). State-of-the-art research on ecosystem service assessment, mapping and participatory approaches is evaluated and a roadmap of the key short- and longer-term research needs for maximising landscape-scale ecosystem service provision from catchments is proposed.

Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems

This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic model (SD). We employ the model to explore eight 'what if' scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawal). The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2°C temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5°C temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase the long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources, and 3) revising global policies (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) that negatively impact at regional scales. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations, and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems.

Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability

There is an ongoing debate on what constitutes sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA). In this paper, we propose that a paradigm for sustainable intensification can be defined and translated into an operational framework for agricultural development. We argue that this paradigm must now be defined-at all scales-in the context of rapidly rising global environmental changes in the Anthropocene, while focusing on eradicating poverty and hunger and contributing to human wellbeing. The criteria and approach we propose, for a paradigm shift towards sustainable intensification of agriculture, integrates the dual and interdependent goals of using sustainable practices to meet rising human needs while contributing to resilience and sustainability of landscapes, the biosphere, and the Earth system. Both of these, in turn, are required to sustain the future viability of agriculture. This paradigm shift aims at repositioning world agriculture from its current role as the world's single largest driver of global environmental change, to becoming a key contributor of a global transition to a sustainable world within a safe operating space on Earth.

Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO₂ can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.

Future agricultural productivity is threatened by high temperatures. Here, using 9 crop models, Schauberger et al. find that yield losses due to temperatures >30 °C are captured by current models where yield losses by mild heat stress occur mainly due to water stress and can be buffered by irrigation.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as UN population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

Fishing for ecosystem services

Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships.

Science for the sustainable use of ecosystem services

Sustainability is a key challenge for humanity in the 21st century. Ecosystem services—the benefits that people derive from nature and natural capital—is a concept often used to help explain human reliance on nature and frame the decisions we make in terms of the ongoing value of nature to human wellbeing. Yet ecosystem service science has not always lived up to the promise of its potential. Despite advances in the scientific literature, ecosystem service science has not yet answered some of the most critical questions posed by decision-makers in the realm of sustainability. Here, we explore the history of ecosystem service science, discuss advances in conceptualization and measurement, and point toward further work needed to improve the use of ecosystem service in decisions about sustainable development.

Long-term impacts of land cover changes on stream channel loss

Land cover change and stream channel loss are two related global environmental changes that are expanding and intensifying. Here, we examine how different types and transitions of land cover change impact stream channel loss across a large urbanizing watershed. We present historical land cover in the 666-km(2) Lake Thunderbird watershed in central Oklahoma (USA) over a 137 year period and coinciding stream channel length changes for the most recent 70 years of this period. Combining these two datasets allowed us to assess the interaction of land cover changes with stream channel loss. Over this period, the upper third of the watershed shifted from predominantly native grassland to an agricultural landscape, followed by widespread urbanization. The lower two-thirds of the watershed changed from a forested landscape to a mosaic of agriculture, urban, forest, and open water. Most channel length lost in the watershed over time was replaced by agriculture. Urban development gradually increased channel loss and disconnection from 1942 to 2011, particularly in the headwaters. Intensities of channel loss for both agriculture and urban increased over time. The two longest connected segments of channel loss came from the creation of two large impoundments, resulting in 46 km and 25 km of lost stream channel, respectively. Overall, the results from this study demonstrate that multiple and various land-use changes over long time periods can lead to rapid losses of large channel lengths as well as gradual (but increasing) losses of small channel lengths across all stream sizes. When these stream channel losses are taken into account, the environmental impacts of anthropogenic land-use change are compounded.

Regime shifts, thresholds and multiple stable states in freshwater ecosystems; a critical appraisal of the evidence

The concepts of ecosystem regime shifts, thresholds and alternative or multiple stable states are used extensively in the ecological and environmental management literature. When applied to aquatic ecosystems, these terms are used inconsistently reflecting differing levels of supporting evidence among ecosystem types. Although many aquatic ecosystems around the world have become degraded, the magnitude and causes of changes, relative to the range of historical variability, are poorly known. A working group supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) reviewed 135 papers on freshwater ecosystems to assess the evidence for pressure-induced non-linear changes in freshwater ecosystems; these papers used terms indicating sudden and non-linear change in their titles and key words, and so was a positively biased sample. We scrutinized papers for study context and methods, ecosystem characteristics and focus, types of pressures and ecological responses considered, and the type of change reported (i.e., gradual, non-linear, hysteretic or irreversible change). There was little empirical evidence for regime shifts and changes between multiple or alternative stable states in these studies although some shifts between turbid phytoplankton-dominated states and clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states were reported in shallow lakes in temperate climates. We found limited understanding of the subtleties of the relevant theoretical concepts and encountered few mechanistic studies that investigated or identified cause-and-effect relationships between ecological responses and nominal pressures. Our results mirror those of reviews for estuarine, nearshore and marine aquatic ecosystems, demonstrating that although the concepts of regime shifts and alternative stable states have become prominent in the scientific and management literature, their empirical underpinning is weak outside of a specific environmental setting. The application of these concepts in future research and management applications should include evidence on the mechanistic links between pressures and consequent ecological change. Explicit consideration should also be given to whether observed temporal dynamics represent variation along a continuum rather than categorically different states.

Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis

The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

Diversification practices reduce organic to conventional yield gap

Agriculture today places great strains on biodiversity, soils, water and the atmosphere, and these strains will be exacerbated if current trends in population growth, meat and energy consumption, and food waste continue. Thus, farming systems that are both highly productive and minimize environmental harms are critically needed. How organic agriculture may contribute to world food production has been subject to vigorous debate over the past decade. Here, we revisit this topic comparing organic and conventional yields with a new meta-dataset three times larger than previously used (115 studies containing more than 1000 observations) and a new hierarchical analytical framework that can better account for the heterogeneity and structure in the data. We find organic yields are only 19.2% (±3.7%) lower than conventional yields, a smaller yield gap than previous estimates. More importantly, we find entirely different effects of crop types and management practices on the yield gap compared with previous studies. For example, we found no significant differences in yields for leguminous versus non-leguminous crops, perennials versus annuals or developed versus developing countries. Instead, we found the novel result that two agricultural diversification practices, multi-cropping and crop rotations, substantially reduce the yield gap (to 9 ± 4% and 8 ± 5%, respectively) when the methods were applied in only organic systems. These promising results, based on robust analysis of a larger meta-dataset, suggest that appropriate investment in agroecological research to improve organic management systems could greatly reduce or eliminate the yield gap for some crops or regions.

Efficiency and detrimental side effects of denitrifying bioreactors for nitrate reduction in drainage water

A laboratory column experiment was conducted to test the efficiency of denitrifying bioreactors for the nitrate (NO3-N) removal in drainage waters at different flow rates and after desiccation. In addition, we investigated detrimental side effects in terms of the release of nitrite (NO2-N), ammonium (NH4-N), phosphate (PO4-P), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), methane (CH4), and dinitrogen oxide (N2O). The NO3-N removal efficiency decreased with increasing NO3-N concentrations, increasing flow rates, and after desiccation. Bioreactors with purely organic fillings showed higher NO3-N removal rates (42.6-55.7 g NO3-N m(-3) day(-1)) than those with organic and inorganic fillings (6.5-21.4 g NO3-N m(-3) day(-1)). The release of NO2-N and DOC was considerable and resulted in concentrations of up to 800 μg NO2-N L(-1)and 25 mg DOC L(-1) in the effluent water. N2O concentrations increased by 4.0 to 15.3 μg N2O-N L(-1) between the influent and the effluent, while CH4 production rates were low. Our study confirms the high potential of denitrifying bioreactors to mitigate NO3-N pollution in drainage waters, but highlights also the potential risks for the environment.

Structure and composition of altered riparian forests in an agricultural Amazonian landscape

Deforestation and fragmentation influence the microclimate, vegetation structure, and composition of remaining patches of tropical forest. In the southern Amazon, at the frontier of cropland expansion, forests are converted and fragmented in a pattern that leaves standing riparian forests whose dimensions are mandated by the Brazilian National Forest Code. These altered riparian forests share many characteristics of well-studied upland forest fragments, but differ because they remain connected to larger areas of forest downstream, and because they may experience wetter soil conditions because reduction of forest cover in the surrounding watershed raises groundwater levels and increases stream runoff. We compared forest regeneration, structure, composition, and diversity in four areas of intact riparian forest and four areas each of narrow, medium, and wide altered riparian forests that have been surrounded by agriculture since the early 1980s. We found that seedling abundance was reduced by as much as 64% and sapling abundance was reduced by as much as 67% in altered compared to intact riparian forests. The most pronounced differences between altered and intact forest occurred near forest edges and within the narrowest sections of altered riparian forests. Woody plant species composition differed and diversity was reduced in altered forests compared to intact riparian forests. However, despite being fragmented for several decades, large woody plant biomass and carbon storage, the number of live or dead large woody plants, mortality rates, and the size distribution of woody plants did not differ significantly between altered and intact riparian forests. Thus, even in these relatively narrow forests with high edge: area ratios, we saw no evidence of the increases in mortality and declines in biomass that have been found in other tropical forest fragment studies. However, because of the changes in both species community and reduced regeneration, it is unclear how long this relative lack of change will be sustained. Additionally, Brazil recently passed a law in their National Forest Code allowing narrower riparian buffers than those studied here in restored areas, which could affect their long-term sustainability.

Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience

Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.

Mechanisms of basin-scale nitrogen load reductions under intensified irrigated agriculture

Irrigated agriculture can modify the cycling and transport of nitrogen (N), due to associated water diversions, water losses, and changes in transport flow-paths. We investigate dominant processes behind observed long-term changes in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations and loads of the extensive (465,000 km2) semi-arid Amu Darya River basin (ADRB) in Central Asia. We specifically considered a 40-year period (1960-2000) of large irrigation expansion, reduced river water flows, increased fertilizer application and net increase of N input into the soil-water system. Results showed that observed decreases in riverine DIN concentration near the Aral Sea outlet of ADRB primarily were due to increased recirculation of irrigation water, which extends the flow-path lengths and enhances N attenuation. The observed DIN concentrations matched a developed analytical relation between concentration attenuation and recirculation ratio, showing that a fourfold increase in basin-scale recirculation can increase DIN attenuation from 85 to 99%. Such effects have previously only been observed at small scales, in laboratory experiments and at individual agricultural plots. These results imply that increased recirculation can have contributed to observed increases in N attenuation in agriculturally dominated drainage basins in different parts of the world. Additionally, it can be important for basin scale attenuation of other pollutants, including phosphorous, metals and organic matter. A six-fold lower DIN export from ADRB during the period 1981-2000, compared to the period 1960-1980, was due to the combined result of drastic river flow reduction of almost 70%, and decreased DIN concentrations at the basin outlet. Several arid and semi-arid regions around the world are projected to undergo similar reductions in discharge as the ADRB due to climate change and agricultural intensification, and may therefore undergo comparable shifts in DIN export as shown here for the ADRB. For example, projected future increases of irrigation water withdrawals between 2005 and 2050 may decrease the DIN export from arid world regions by 40%.