Health and economic outcomes of HPV 16,18 vaccination in 72 GAVI-eligible countries

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Burkina Faso: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Africa has some of the highest cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates globally. Burkina Faso launched a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme for 9-year-old girls in 2022 with support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi). An economic evaluation of HPV vaccination is required to help sustain investment and inform decisions about optimal HPV vaccine choices.

METHODS

We used a proportionate outcomes static cohort model to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for 9-year-old girls over a ten-year period (2022-2031) in Burkina Faso. The primary outcome measure was the cost (2022 US$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from a limited societal perspective (including all vaccine costs borne by the government and Gavi, radiation therapy costs borne by the government, and all other direct medical costs borne by patients and their families). We evaluated four vaccines (CERVARIX®, CECOLIN®, GARDASIL-4®, GARDASIL-9®), comparing each to no vaccination (and no change in existing cervical cancer screening and treatment strategies) and to each other. We combined local estimates of HPV type distribution, healthcare costs, vaccine coverage and costs with GLOBOCAN 2020 disease burden data and clinical trial efficacy data. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses.

RESULTS

HPV vaccination could prevent 37-72% of cervical cancer cases and deaths. CECOLIN® had the most favourable cost-effectiveness (cost per DALY averted < 0.27 times the national gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). When cross-protection was included, CECOLIN® remained the most cost-effective (cost per DALY averted < 0.20 times the national GDP per capita), but CERVARIX® provided greater health benefits (66% vs. 48% reduction in cervical cancer cases and deaths) with similar cost-effectiveness (cost per DALY averted < 0.28 times the national GDP per capita, with CECOLIN® as the comparator). We estimated the annual cost of the vaccination programme at US$ 2.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 19.8 million for CECOLIN®, GARDASIL-4®, CERVARIX® and GARDASIL-9®, respectively. A single dose strategy reduced costs and improved cost-effectiveness by more than half.

CONCLUSION

HPV vaccination is cost-effective in Burkina Faso from a limited societal perspective. A single dose strategy and/or alternative Gavi-supported HPV vaccines could further improve cost-effectiveness.

HPV Vaccination Adherence in Working-Age Men: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the most common sexually transmitted viral infection in the world. HPV vaccination adherence rates in men are generally lower than in women. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess adherence to HPV vaccination in young working-age males (18-30 years old).

METHODS

A systematic review was performed using three databases: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA).

RESULTS

After duplicate removal, the initial search resulted in 478 eligible papers. With the exclusion of 425 papers after screening the abstracts, full texts of 53 articles were reviewed. Subsequently, 45 were excluded. Among the eight studies included, four (50%) examined the vaccination adherence in young adults through data registered in nationwide insurance or private companies' databases, three (37.5%) in young adults in different settings through data collected from surveys and questionnaires, and one (12.5%) an HPV vaccination campaign in a family medicine residency practice.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to HPV vaccination in men of working age (18-30 years) does not appear to be adequate (pooled prevalence 11%). In order to achieve a higher level of compliance, it is important to place an emphasis on vaccination campaigns in schools as well as in the workplace, after consultation with and approval from local, regional, and federal public health agencies.

Outcomes from 8 years of cervical cancer screening at a rural screen-and-treat site in northern Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

To examine screening outcomes for a rural screen-and-treat site as well as the referral completion rate, outreach programming, and screening costs.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of demographic information and screening outcomes for all women screened at a rural screen-and-treat site between August 2011 and December 2018 was conducted. Referral completion rate for women with suspected cervical cancer was calculated for 2018.

RESULTS

A total of 10 157 screenings were conducted during the study period. Median age was 35 years and median parity was 5. In all, 545 (5.35%) women were positive on visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA+), and 461 (91.1%) of 506 eligible women received cryotherapy. In 2018, 93 women were referred for suspected cancer to the zonal referral center, but only 10 (10.8%) presented for treatment. Mean screening cost was US$ 6.62 per person.

CONCLUSION

VIA+ rate was comparable to rates at urban sites in Tanzania, and outreach was an important component of screening. In contrast to other reports, few women suspected of having cancer reached treatment after being referred. Although the low cost of screening highlights the feasibility of rural screen-and-treat sites, additional research is needed to improve completion of referrals to a higher level of care.

Comprehensive league table of cost-utility ratios: A systematic review of cost-effectiveness evidence for health policy decisions in India

Background and objectives

Although a relatively recent concept for developing countries, the developed world has been using League Tables as a policy guiding tool for a comprehensive assessment of health expenditures; country-specific "League tables" can be a very useful tool for national healthcare planning and budgeting. Presented herewith is a comprehensive league table of cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) or Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) ratios derived from Health Technology Assessment (HTA) or economic evaluation studies reported from India through a systematic review.

Methods

Economic evaluations and HTAs published from January 2003 to October 2019 were searched from various databases. We only included the studies reporting common outcomes (QALY/DALY) and methodology to increase the generalizability of league table findings. To opt for a uniform criterion, a reference case approach developed by Health Technology Assessment in India (HTAIn) was used for the reporting of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, as, most of the articles expressed the outcome as DALY, both (QALY and DALY) were used as outcome indicators for this review.

Results

After the initial screening of 9,823 articles, 79 articles meeting the inclusion criteria were selected for the League table preparation. The spectrum of intervention was dominated by innovations for infectious diseases (33%), closely followed by maternal and child health (29%), and non-communicable diseases (20%). The remaining 18% of the interventions were on other groups of health issues, such as injuries, snake bites, and epilepsy. Most of the interventions (70%) reported DALY as an outcome indicator, and the rest (30%) reported QALY. Outcome and cost were discounted at the rate of 3 by 73% of the studies, at 5 by 4% of the studies, whereas 23% of the studies did not discount it. Budget impact and sensitivity analysis were reported by 18 and 73% of the studies, respectively.

Interpretation and conclusions

The present review offers a reasonably coherent league table that reflects ICER values of a range of health conditions in India. It presents an update for decision-makers for making decisions about resource allocation.

COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020–2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020–2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery.

Potential effectiveness of a therapeutic HPV intervention campaign in Uganda

Cervical cancer is a major source of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In addition to prophylactic HPV vaccination, secondary prevention strategies are needed to reduce cancer burden. We evaluated the potential cancer reductions associated with a hypothetical single-contact therapeutic HPV intervention-with 70% coverage and variable efficacy [30%-100%]-using a three-stage HPV modeling framework reflecting HPV and cervical cancer burden in Uganda. In the reference case, we assumed prophylactic preadolescent HPV vaccination starting in 2020 with 70% coverage. A one-time therapeutic intervention targeting 35-year-old women in 2025 (not age-eligible for prophylactic vaccination) averted 1801 cervical cancers per 100 000 women over their lifetime (100% efficacy) or 533 cancers per 100 000 (30% efficacy). Benefits were considerably smaller in birth cohorts eligible for prophylactic HPV vaccination (768 cases averted per 100 000 at 100% efficacy). Evaluating the population-level impact over 40 years, we found introduction of a therapeutic intervention in 2025 with 100% efficacy targeted annually to 30-year-old women averted 139 000 incident cervical cancers in Uganda. This benefit was greatly reduced if efficacy was lower (30% efficacy; 41 000 cases averted), introduction was delayed (2040 introduction; 72 000 cases averted) or both (22 000 cases averted). We demonstrate the potential benefits of a single-contact HPV therapeutic intervention in a low-income setting, but show the importance of high therapeutic efficacy and early introduction timing relative to existing prophylactic programs. Reduced benefits from a less efficacious intervention may be somewhat offset if available within a shorter time frame.

Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan: a comparative modelling study

Introduction

Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. Our study objective was to assess similarities and differences in vaccine-impact projections through comparative modelling analysis by independently estimating the potential health impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

Methods

Using two widely published models (Harvard and Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME)) to estimate HPV vaccination impact, we simulated a vaccination scenario of 90% annual coverage among 10 cohorts of 9-year-old girls from 2021 to 2030 in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. We estimated potential health impact in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years averted among vaccinated cohorts from the time of vaccination until 2100. We harmonised the two models by standardising input data to comparatively estimate HPV vaccination impact.

Results

Prior to harmonising model assumptions, the range between PRIME and Harvard models for number of cervical cancer cases averted by HPV vaccination was: 262 000 to 2 70 000 in Ethiopia; 1 640 000 to 1 970 000 in India; 330 000 to 3 36 000 in Nigeria and 111 000 to 1 33 000 in Pakistan. When harmonising model assumptions, alignment on HPV type distribution significantly narrowed differences in vaccine-impact estimates.

Conclusion

Despite model differences, the Harvard and PRIME models yielded similar vaccine-impact estimates. The main differences in estimates are due to variation in interpretation around data on cervical cancer attribution to HPV-16/18. As countries make progress towards WHO targets for cervical cancer elimination, continued explorations of underlying differences in model inputs, assumptions and results when examining cervical cancer prevention policy will be critical.

High-burden Cancers in Middle-income Countries: A Review of Prevention and Early Detection Strategies Targeting At-risk Populations

Cancer incidence is rising in low- and especially middle-income countries (MIC), driven primarily by four high-burden cancers (breast, cervix, lung, colorectal). By 2030, more than two-thirds of all cancer deaths will occur in MICs. Prevention and early detection are required alongside efforts to improve access to cancer treatment. Successful strategies for decreasing cancer mortality in high-income countries are not always effective, feasible or affordable in other countries. In this review, we evaluate strategies for prevention and early detection of breast, cervix, lung, and colorectal cancers, focusing on modifiable risk factors and high-risk subpopulations. Tobacco taxation, human papilloma virus vaccination, cervical cancer screen-and-treat strategies, and efforts to reduce patient and health system-related delays in the early detection of breast and colorectal cancer represent the highest yield strategies for advancing cancer control in many MICs. An initial focus on high-risk populations is appropriate, with increasing population coverage as resources allow. These strategies can deliver significant cancer mortality gains, and serve as a foundation from which countries can develop comprehensive cancer control programs. Investment in national cancer surveillance infrastructure is needed; the absence of national cancer data to identify at-risk groups remains a barrier to the development of context-specific cancer control strategies.

Health gains and financial protection from human papillomavirus vaccination in Ethiopia: findings from a modelling study

High out-of-pocket (OOP) medical expenses for cervical cancer (CC) can lead to catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) and medical impoverishment in many low-resource settings. There are 32 million women at risk for CC in Ethiopia, where CC screening is extremely limited. An evaluation of the population health and financial risk protection benefits, and their distributional consequences across socioeconomic groups, from human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination will be critical to support CC prevention efforts in this setting. We used a static cohort model that captures the main features of HPV vaccines and population demographics to project health and economic outcomes associated with routine HPV vaccination in Ethiopia. Health outcomes included the number of CC cases, and costs included vaccination and operational costs in 2015 US dollars over the years 2019–2118 and CC treatment costs over the lifetimes of cohorts eligible for vaccination in Ethiopia. We estimated the household OOP medical expenditures averted (assuming 68% of direct medical expenditures were financed OOP) and cases of CHE averted. A case of CHE was defined as 40% of household consumption expenditures, and the cases of CHE averted depended on wealth quintile, disease incidence, healthcare use and OOP payments. Our analysis shows that, assuming 100% vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 and 50% vaccination coverage, routine HPV vaccination could avert up to 970 000 cases of CC between 2019 and 2118, which translates to ∼932 000 lives saved. Additionally, routine HPV vaccination could avert 33 900 cases of CHE. Approximately one-third of health benefits would accrue to the poorest wealth quintile, whereas 50% of financial risk protection benefits would accrue to this quintile. HPV vaccination can reduce disparities in CC incidence, mortality and household health expenditures. This understanding and our findings can help policymakers in decisions regarding targeted CC control efforts and investment in a routine HPV vaccination programme following an initial catch-up programme.

The projected cost-effectiveness and budget impact of HPV vaccine introduction in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is responsible for around one-quarter of all cancer deaths among Ghanaian women. Between 2013 and 2015, Ghana conducted a pilot of HPV vaccination among 10-14-year-old girls in four regions; however, the country has yet to introduce the vaccine nationally. This study projected the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of adding HPV vaccination into Ghana's national immunization program.

METHODS

We used a proportional outcomes model (UNIVAC, version 1.4) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introduction with bivalent (Cervarix™) and quadrivalent (Gardasil®) vaccines from government and societal perspectives. Vaccine introduction was modeled to start in 2022 and continue over ten birth cohorts using a combined delivery strategy of school (80%) and community outreach (20%). We modeled vaccination in a single age cohort of 9-year-old girls vs. a multi-age cohort of 9-year-old girls (routine) and 10-14-year-old girls (one-time campaign) compared to no vaccination. Health outcomes included cervical cancer cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We applied a discount rate of 3% to costs and outcomes. All monetary units are reported in USD 2018.

RESULTS

National HPV vaccination in Ghana was projected to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination in all scenarios evaluated. The most cost-effective and dominant strategy was vaccination among 9-year-old girls, plus a one-time campaign among 10-14-year-old with the bivalent vaccine ($158/DALY averted from the government perspective; 95% credible range: $19-$280/DALY averted). Projected average annual costs of the vaccine program ranged from $11.2 to $15.4 M, depending on strategy. This represents 11-15% of the estimated total immunization costs for 2022 ($100,857,875 based on Ghana's comprehensive Multi-Year Plan for Immunization, 2020-2024).

DISCUSSION

Our model suggests that introducing HPV vaccination would be cost-effective in Ghana under any strategy when willingness-to-pay is at least 40% GDP per capita ($881). Inclusion of a one-time catch-up campaign is shown to create greater value for money than routine immunization alone but would incur greater program costs.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice on Cervical Cancer Screening and Associated Factors Among Women Aged 15-49 Years in Adigrat Town, Northern Ethiopia, 2019: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Cervical cancer, mainly attributed to persistent infection with a high-risk oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), is one of the most common types of women’s cancer globally, with more than 90% of new cases occurring in developing and resource-limited countries. In Ethiopia, cervical cancer ranks as the most frequent cancer among women and cause for 4732 deaths annually.

Objective

To assess knowledge, attitude, practice towards screening on cervical cancer and associated factors among women aged 15–49 years in Adigrat town, northern Tigray Ethiopia.

Methods

A community based quantitative study design was conducted among 617 samples in Adigrat town, northern Tigray Ethiopia. Data were collected using a structured, semi-structured, and pre-tested questionnaire. Associations between dependent and independent variables were tested using logistic regression with the assumptions of p-values <0.05 and confidence interval 95% and considered to be statistically significant.

Results

This study indicated that 46.4%, 53.3%, 38.1% of participants had knowledge, positive attitude, and screened on cervical cancer, respectively. Diploma and above [AOR=3.7, 95% CI (1.443, 9.433) were significant factors associated with knowledge of cervical cancer screening utilization. Primary school (1–8) [AOR=2.7, 95% CI (1.297, 5.699)], greater than 500 ETB household income [AOR = 4.8, 95% CI (2.783, 8.577)] were significant factors associated with attitude of cervical cancer screening utilization. Secondary school (9–12) [AOR = 3.4, 95% CI (1.565, 7.458)], not knowledgeable of cervical cancer [AOR = 1.8, 95% CI (1.156, 2.698)] were significant factors associated with practice of cervical cancer screening utilization.

Conclusion

Factors like age, educational status, anyone knowing with cervical cancer and ever received cancer information had a significant association with knowledge of cervical cancer screening utilization. Educational status and perceived income of the household had a significant association with an attitude of cervical cancer screening utilization. Educational status perceived income of the household, anyone knowing with cervical cancer, ever received cancer information, and knowledge of cervical cancer screening utilization were predictors of cervical cancer screening practice.

The patent buyout price for human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine and the ratio of R&D costs to the patent value

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for almost all of the 570,000 new cases of cervical cancer and approximately 311,000 deaths per year. HPV vaccination is an integral component of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) global strategy to fight the disease. However, high vaccine prices enforced through patent protection are limiting vaccine expansion, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. By limiting market power, patent buyouts could reduce vaccine prices and raise HPV vaccination rates while keeping innovation incentives. We estimate the global patent buyout price as the present discounted value (PDV) of the future profit stream over the remaining patent length for Merck’s HPV vaccines (Gardasil-4 and 9), which hold 87% of the global HPV vaccine market, in the range of US$ 15.6–27.7 billion (in 2018 US$). The estimated PDV of the profit stream since market introduction amounts to US$ 17.8–42.8 billion and the estimated R&D cost to US$ 1.05–1.21 billion. Thus, we arrive at a ratio of R&D costs to the patent value of the order of 2.5–6.8%. We relate this figure to typical estimates of the probability of success (POS) for clinical trials of vaccines to discuss if patent protection provides Merck with extraordinarily strong price setting power.

Revue de la littérature sur les interventions en milieu scolaire concernant la vaccination anti-HPV

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus infection is the most common sexually transmitted infection and is associated with cervical cancer and several other cancers. Although the human papillomavirus vaccine is highly effective and has an excellent safety record, vaccination coverage rates vary around the world and are very low in France.Purpose of research: A literature review on the last five years in the MEDLINE and Public Health Databases was conducted in November 2017. Sixteen studies on school-based interventions for human papillomavirus vaccination in girls aged 11 to 19&#160;years were selected and analyzed.

RESULTS

Half of the studies concerned underage girls in middle and high schools or their parents and the other half major students. Education through written information, presentation or discussion increased knowledge about human papillomavirus infection and vaccine prevention, even in the medium term. The interventions that had the greatest impact were those that used personalization of the message, combining information or sources and implementing pre-intervention questionnaires. Knowledge was not always correlated with effective vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Educational interventions increase knowledge about human papillomavirus and vaccination intention but not vaccination. Further studies seem necessary to understand the gap between the level of knowledge and its impact on immunization coverage.

Health and economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and the cost-effectiveness of potential interventions against RSV among children under 5 years in 72 Gavi-eligible countries

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) frequently causes acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5, representing a high burden in Gavi-eligible countries (mostly low-income and lower-middle-income). Since multiple RSV interventions, including vaccines and monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates, are under development, we aim to evaluate the key drivers of the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and infant mAb for 72 Gavi countries.

METHODS

A static Multi-Country Model Application for RSV Cost-Effectiveness poLicy (MCMARCEL) was developed to follow RSV-related events monthly from birth until 5 years of age. MCMARCEL was parameterised using country- and age-specific demographic, epidemiological, and cost data. The interventions' level and duration of effectiveness were guided by the World Health Organization's preferred product characteristics and other literature. Maternal vaccination and mAb were assumed to require single-dose administration at prices assumed to align with other Gavi-subsidised technologies. The effectiveness and the prices of the interventions were simultaneously varied in extensive scenario analyses. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were the primary health outcomes for cost-effectiveness, integrated with probabilistic sensitivity analyses and Expected Value of Partially Perfect Information analysis.

RESULTS

The RSV-associated disease burden among children in these 72 countries is estimated at an average of 20.8 million cases, 1.8 million hospital admissions, 40 thousand deaths, 1.2 million discounted DALYs, and US$611 million discounted direct costs. Strategy 'mAb' is more effective due to its assumed longer duration of protection versus maternal vaccination, but it was also assumed to be more expensive. Given all parameterised uncertainty, the optimal strategy of choice tends to change for increasing willingness to pay (WTP) values per DALY averted from the current situation to maternal vaccination (at WTP > US$1000) to mAB (at WTP > US$3500). The age-specific proportions of cases that are hospitalised and/or die cause most of the uncertainty in the choice of optimal strategy. Results are broadly similar across countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the maternal and mAb strategies need to be competitively priced to be judged as relatively cost-effective. Information on the level and duration of protection is crucial, but also more and better disease burden evidence-especially on RSV-attributable hospitalisation and death rates-is needed to support policy choices when novel RSV products become available.

Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels: a PRIME modelling study

Background

The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) has been used around the world to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in girls. We updated PRIME with new data and methods for demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden, and generated revised estimates of the health impact of HPV vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels for 177 countries.

Methods

PRIME was updated with population demography of the UN World Population Prospects (UNWPP) 2019 revision, disability weights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, and cervical cancer burden from the Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence (GLOBOCAN) 2018 database. We estimated the lifetime health benefits for bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccination of 9-year-old and 12-year-old girls at 90% coverage during 2020–29 in 177 countries. Health impact was presented in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths, or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per 1000 vaccinated girls in comparison with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination, and the number of girls needed to be vaccinated to prevent a single case, death, or DALY.

Findings

In estimating the health impact of HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls, the combined updates to demography, disability weights, cervical cancer burden estimates resulted in a 26% increase in the estimated number of cases averted, a 51% increase in deaths averted, and a 72% increase in DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated girls for both the bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines, compared with previous estimates. With the updated model, the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 15 cases, 12 deaths, and 243 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls, and the nonavalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 19 cases, 14 deaths, and 306 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls. The health benefits of vaccination of 12-year-old girls were estimated to be similar but slightly decreased in comparison with vaccination of 9-year-old girls.

Interpretation

HPV vaccination provides greater health benefits and is more cost-effective than was previously estimated. The demography update, which incorporates population aging, has the largest effect on the health impact estimates. The WHO African region is expected to gain the greatest health benefits and should be prioritised for HPV vaccination.

Funding

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Afghanistan

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has not been introduced in many countries in South-Central Asia, including Afghanistan, despite the sub-region having the highest incidence rate of cervical cancer in Asia. This study estimates the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Afghanistan to inform national decision-making.

METHOD

An Excel-based static cohort model was used to estimate the lifetime costs and health outcomes of vaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls in the year 2018 with the bivalent HPV vaccine, compared to no vaccination. We also explored a scenario with a catch-up campaign for girls aged 10-14 years. Input parameters were based on local sources, published literature, or assumptions when no data was available. The primary outcome measure was the discounted cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, evaluated from both government and societal perspectives.

RESULTS

Vaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls against HPV in Afghanistan could avert 1718 cervical cancer cases, 125 hospitalizations, and 1612 deaths over the lifetime of the cohort. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$426 per DALY averted from the government perspective and US$400 per DALY averted from the societal perspective. The estimated annual cost of the HPV vaccination program (US$3,343,311) represents approximately 3.53% of the country's total immunization budget for 2018 or 0.13% of total health expenditures.

CONCLUSION

In Afghanistan, HPV vaccine introduction targeting a single cohort is potentially cost-effective (0.7 times the GDP per capita of $586) from both the government and societal perspective with additional health benefits generated by a catch-up campaign, depending on the government's willingness to pay for the projected health outcomes.

Awareness and Beliefs About Cervical Cancer, the HPV Vaccine, and Cervical Cancer Screening Among Ghanaian Women with Diverse Education Levels

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among women in Ghana. Cost-effective tools for the primary and secondary prevention of cervical cancer, such as the Pap test, the HPV DNA test, and the HPV vaccine, are available in hospitals and clinics throughout Ghana. However, participation in cervical cancer prevention behaviors is low among Ghanaian women. Our objective was to determine if there were significant differences in cervical cancer awareness and stigmatizing beliefs about women with cervical cancer between Ghanaian women of different education levels. We surveyed 288 Ghanaian women who were at least 18 years old. Data on the participants' demographic characteristics, awareness of cervical cancer, cervical cancer screening, and the HPV vaccine, beliefs about cervical cancer screening, and stigmatizing beliefs about women with cervical cancer was collected. Chi-square tests for independence and Fisher's exact test of independence were preformed to determine if education level was associated with those factors. Participation in cervical cancer screening and uptake of the HPV vaccine was significantly lower among women with less than a senior high school education. Awareness about cervical cancer, cervical cancer screening, and the HPV vaccine was lower among women with less education. Women with lower levels of education were more likely to agree with the negative statements about cervical cancer screening and stigmatizing beliefs about women with cervical cancer. Cervical cancer education interventions that are tailored for Ghanaian women with different educational levels are needed to increase awareness of and participation in cervical cancer prevention strategies.

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making.

•

General modelling guidelines are insufficient for reporting HPV models.

•

HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a quality-based framework for HPV models.

•

The framework has seven domains consisting of distinct reporting standards.

•

HPV-FRAME aims to promote transparency and improve the quality in reporting.

Global Collaborations for Cervical Cancer: Can the East-West Alliance Facilitate Treatment for all?

Despite the advances in the primary prevention of cervical cancer, there is an absolute increase in the incidence of cervical cancer as a result of an increase in world population. A vast majority of patients in low and low-middle income countries continue to present at a locally advanced stage, necessitating treatment with chemoradiation and brachytherapy. There is a dearth of equipment and trained professionals for the treatment of cervical cancer, especially in low and low-middle income countries. There is an urgent need to improve treatment availability and develop better treatments. Worldwide trends, however, reveal a low number of therapeutic and innovative research trials in cervical cancer. The present article elucidates the existing challenges and provides solutions to improve outcomes. The proposed strategies hinge on strengthening collaborations for global advocacy.

A proof-of-concept study for the design of a VLP-based combinatorial HPV and placental malaria vaccine

In Africa, cervical cancer and placental malaria (PM) are a major public health concern. There is currently no available PM vaccine and the marketed Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are prohibitively expensive. The idea of a combinatorial HPV and PM vaccine is attractive because the target population for vaccination against both diseases, adolescent girls, would be overlapping in Sub-Saharan Africa. Here we demonstrate proof-of-concept for a combinatorial vaccine utilizing the AP205 capsid-based virus-like particle (VLP) designed to simultaneously display two clinically relevant antigens (the HPV RG1 epitope and the VAR2CSA PM antigen). Three distinct combinatorial VLPs were produced displaying one, two or five concatenated RG1 epitopes without obstructing the VLP’s capacity to form. Co-display of VAR2CSA was achieved through a split-protein Tag/Catcher interaction without hampering the vaccine stability. Vaccination with the combinatorial vaccine(s) was able to reduce HPV infection in vivo and induce anti-VAR2CSA IgG antibodies, which inhibited binding between native VAR2CSA expressed on infected red blood cells and chondroitin sulfate A in an in vitro binding-inhibition assay. These results show that the Tag/Catcher AP205 VLP system can be exploited to make a combinatorial vaccine capable of eliciting antibodies with dual specificity.

Making HPV vaccination available to girls everywhere

Cervical cancer is currently the fourth leading cause of cancer death among women worldwide, with most cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Safe, highly effective vaccines against HPV have been on the market since 2006, yet only 6% of girls worldwide have received this life-saving cancer prevention intervention. International organizations, including PATH, Gavi, and the pharmaceutical companies Merck and GlaxoSmithKline, have provided support to eligible low- and middle-income countries to implement national HPV vaccination programs. Still, glaring disparities in the availability of national HPV vaccination programs and the coverage of the primary target population between the global north and south persist. We illustrate worldwide HPV vaccine implementation and coverage using an online data visualization, which is publicly available and can be used to gain unique insights. We also present three emerging solutions to transform future HPV vaccine delivery in low- and middle-income countries: low-cost generics, single-dose vaccination, and co-administration with other adolescent vaccines. By rapidly expanding access to HPV vaccination to girls everywhere, vaccine-type HPV infections can be virtually eliminated. At high vaccination-coverage levels, more than 80%-or approximately 230 000-of the cervical cancer deaths that occur each year can be averted.

"She must have been sleeping around"…: Contextual interpretations of cervical cancer and views regarding HPV vaccination for adolescents in selected communities in Ibadan, Nigeria

Background

Human Papilloma virus (HPV) vaccines for adolescents are pivotal in the control of cervical cancer, the commonest women specific malignancy in sub-Saharan Africa. Knowledge about cervical cancer have been reported to be low in Africa but expressed acceptability for HPV vaccines have been high. The reason for this mismatch is not clear. An understanding of the interpretation of cervical cancer and views about HPV vaccine are important as they can affect actual decision making regarding adolescents’ uptake of HPV vaccine. This study explored contextual interpretations of stakeholders regarding cervical cancer and HPV vaccines for adolescents in five selected communities in Ibadan, Nigeria.

Methods

Qualitative data were collected through twenty focus group discussions among parents of adolescents, religious and traditional leaders, school teachers and adolescents; and four key informant interviews with the identified traditional healers in the selected communities. Constant comparison analysis was done after transcription.

Results

Almost every group had at least one person who had seen a cervical cancer patient. Cervical cancer was widely viewed as being caused by promiscuity of women while older participants believed that the alteration of lifestyle by civilization was a major contributory factor. There was also a general notion that it was due to a curse. The role of HPV was generally not known. Most participants were favourable towards HPV immunization for adolescents but traditional healers and some religious leaders were not. The high cost of the vaccines and possibility of side effects where the main concerns about the introduction of HPV vaccine. Decision to take the vaccine rest with the fathers whose views were heavily influenced by traditional and religious leaders.

Conclusions

Awareness about cervical cancer may not be as low as earlier reported and there were many misconceptions about cervical cancer in the study communities. It is important to address these misconceptions to ensure successful introduction of HPV vaccine for adolescents in future.

Health and economic benefits of single-dose HPV vaccination in a Gavi-eligible country

BACKGROUND

Although guidelines for prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination recommend two doses for girls ages 9-14 years, several studies have demonstrated similar protection with one dose. Our objective was to evaluate the long-term health and economic impacts of routine one-dose HPV vaccination compared to (1) no vaccination and (2) two-dose HPV vaccination in a low-income country.

METHODS

We used a three-tiered hybrid modeling approach that captured HPV transmission, cervical carcinogenesis, and population demographics to project long-term health and economic outcomes associated with one-dose HPV vaccination (assuming 80% efficacy against HPV-16/18 infections under three waning scenarios) and two-dose HPV vaccination (assuming 100% efficacy over the lifetime) in Uganda. Costs included the vaccine program (dosage and delivery) costs over a 10-year period and cervical cancer costs over the lifetimes of the current population of Ugandan women. Health outcomes included number of cervical cancer cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e., cost per DALY averted) were calculated and compared against the Ugandan per-capita gross domestic product.

RESULTS

Routine one-dose HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls required substantial upfront investment but was cost-saving compared to no vaccination when accounting for the cost-offsets from future cancers averted. Forty years after initiating routine vaccination and depending on assumptions of vaccine waning, one-dose HPV vaccination with equivalent coverage (70%) averted 15-16% of cervical cancer cases versus 21% with two-dose vaccination but required only half the upfront economic investment. Vaccination with two doses had an attractive cost-effectiveness profile except if one-dose vaccination enabled higher coverage (90% vs. 70%) and did not wane.

CONCLUSIONS

One-dose HPV vaccination resulted in cost-savings compared to no vaccination and could be cost-effective compared to two-dose vaccination if protection is longstanding and higher coverage can be achieved.

Efficacy of a Carrageenan gel Against Transmission of Cervical HPV (CATCH): interim analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2B trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the efficacy of a carrageenan-based lubricant gel in reducing the risk of genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infections in women.

METHODS

We conducted a planned interim analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2B trial. Women aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to a carrageenan-based gel or a placebo gel to be self-applied every other day for the first month and before and after each intercourse during follow-up. Assessments were performed at 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. The primary outcome was incidence of a new infection by an HPV type that was not present at baseline. Intention-to-treat analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Between January 2013 and June 2017, a total of 280 participants were randomly assigned to the carrageenan (n = 141) or the placebo (n = 139) arm. All participants were included in safety analyses, but three (1%) were excluded from efficacy analyses (HPV results unavailable for two participants in the carrageenan and one participant in the placebo arm). The median follow-up time was 9.2 months (interquartile range, 1.9-13.2 months). A total of 59 (42%) of 139 participants in the carrageenan arm and 78 (57%) of 138 participants in the placebo arm became infected by at least one new HPV type (hazard ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence interval = 0.45-0.89, p 0.009). A total of 62 (44%) of 141 participants in the carrageenan arm versus 43 (31%) of 139 participants in the placebo arm reported an adverse event (p 0.02), none of which was deemed related to the gels.

CONCLUSIONS

Our trial's interim analysis suggests that using a carrageenan-based lubricant gel can reduce the risk of genital HPV infections in women.

Factors Affecting Uptake of Cervical Cancer Screening Among African Women in Klang Valley, Malaysia

Introduction: Cervical cancer is a health concern among women worldwide, presently ranking as the second to fourth common cancer type among women in different parts of the world. Human papillomaviruses (HPV) 16 and 18 are the main causative agents of cervical cancer. However, prevention is possible with early and regular cervical cancer screening. Objective: This study aimed to identify the cervical cancer screening practices and factors affecting the screening status of African immigrant women attending selected church services in Klang Valley, Malaysia. Methodology: A cross-sectional study among 320 randomly selected respondents between ages 18-69 was conducted in three different churches with high numbers of African participants. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed among the respondents. To ensure a good understanding, the questionnaire was written and self-explained in English language, because English is the general spoken language among the study population. Three levels of analysis were conducted using SPSS 21, involving descriptive analysis, chi square and multiple logistic regression. Results: The response rate was 98.2%, the majority (68.1%) of the respondents being aged 31-50 years and married. The prevalence of screening among the respondents over the past 3 years was 27.2%. Using a p-value of 0.05 as the significance level, the final model showed that marital status (p=0.004), knowledge (p=0.035), perceived barriers (p=0.003), and having a regular health care provider (p<0.001) were the only significant predicting factors of uptake of cervical screening among African immigrant women in Klang Valley, Malaysia. Conclusion: The findings revealed that the uptake of cervical cancer screening among the African women was very low. Marital status, knowledge, perceived barriers and having a regular health care provider were the predictive factors. Specific awareness programs to increase uptake should be designed and implemented by the relevant authorities.

Geospatial Planning and the Resulting Economic Impact of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Introduction in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Research has shown that the distance to the nearest immunization location can ultimately prevent someone from getting immunized. With the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine throughout the world, a major question is whether the target populations can readily access immunization.

METHODS

In anticipation of HPV vaccine introduction in Mozambique, a country with a 2015 population of 25,727,911, our team developed Strategic Integrated Geo-temporal Mapping Application) to determine the potential economic impact of HPV immunization. We quantified how many people in the target population are reachable by the 1377 existing immunization locations, how many cannot access these locations, and the potential costs and disease burden averted by immunization.

RESULTS

If the entire 2015 cohort of 10-year-old girls goes without HPV immunization, approximately 125 (111-139) new cases of HPV 16,18-related cervical cancer are expected in the future. If each health center covers a catchment area with a 5-km radius (ie, if people travel up to 5 km to obtain vaccines), then 40% of the target population could be reached to prevent 50 (44-55) cases, 178 (159-198) disability-adjusted life years, and US $202,854 (US $140,758-323,693) in health care costs and lost productivity. At higher catchment area radii, additional increases in catchment area radius raise population coverage with diminishing returns.

CONCLUSIONS

Much of the population in Mozambique is unable to reach any existing immunization location, thereby reducing the potential impact of HPV vaccine. The geospatial information system analysis can assist in planning vaccine introduction strategies to maximize access and help the population reap the maximum benefits from an immunization program.

Cost-effectiveness of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination in Nigeria: a decision analysis using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage

Background

World Health Organisation recommends routine Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination for girls when its cost-effectiveness in the country or region has been duly considered. We therefore aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Nigeria using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage, i.e. realistically achievable in the studied context.

Methods

A microsimulation frame-work was used. The natural history for cervical cancer disease was remodelled from a previous Nigerian model-based study. Costing was based on health providers’ perspective. Disability adjusted life years attributable to cervical cancer mortality served as benefit estimate. Suitable policy option was obtained by calculating the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess parameter uncertainty. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore the robustness of the policy recommendation to key parameters alteration. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was calculated to determine the expected opportunity cost associated with choosing the optimal scenario or strategy at the maximum cost-effectiveness threshold.

Results

Combination of the current scenario of opportunistic screening and national HPV vaccination programme (CS + NV) was the only cost-effective and robust policy option. However, CS + NV scenario was only cost-effective so far the unit cost of HPV vaccine did not exceed $5. EVPI analysis showed that it may be worthwhile to conduct additional research to inform the decision to adopt CS + NV.

Conclusions

National HPV vaccination combined with opportunist cervical cancer screening is cost-effective in Nigeria. However, adoption of this strategy should depend on its relative efficiency when compared to other competing new vaccines and health interventions.

The health-economic studies of HPV vaccination in Southeast Asian countries: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The cervical cancer-related burden is an important problem in Southeast Asian (SEA) countries. However, only 3 out of 11 countries implement the comprehensive prevention program. Areas covered: This is a retrospective review from all relevant studies until 2015 from two main databases, MEDLINE/Pubmed and Embase in order to provide an evidence on the health economics of HPV vaccination in the region. Expert commentary: The implementation of HPV vaccination will generate substantial health and economic benefit in SEA countries since the number of cervical cancer cases in this region are generally high. Therefore, a clear recommendation on how HPV vaccination should be implemented in a country, for example on how many doses will be used, how much cost is required or is it a school based- or clinical based-delivery, is critically required.

The public health value of vaccines beyond efficacy: methods, measures and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Assessments of vaccine efficacy and safety capture only the minimum information needed for regulatory approval, rather than the full public health value of vaccines. Vaccine efficacy provides a measure of proportionate disease reduction, is usually limited to etiologically confirmed disease, and focuses on the direct protection of the vaccinated individual. Herein, we propose a broader scope of methods, measures and outcomes to evaluate the effectiveness and public health impact to be considered for evidence-informed policymaking in both pre- and post-licensure stages.

DISCUSSION

Pre-licensure: Regulatory concerns dictate an individually randomised clinical trial. However, some circumstances (such as the West African Ebola epidemic) may require novel designs that could be considered valid for licensure by regulatory agencies. In addition, protocol-defined analytic plans for these studies should include clinical as well as etiologically confirmed endpoints (e.g. all cause hospitalisations, pneumonias, acute gastroenteritis and others as appropriate to the vaccine target), and should include vaccine-preventable disease incidence and 'number needed to vaccinate' as outcomes. Post-licensure: There is a central role for phase IV cluster randomised clinical trials that allows for estimation of population-level vaccine impact, including indirect, total and overall effects. Dynamic models should be prioritised over static models as the constant force of infection assumed in static models will usually underestimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the immunisation programme by underestimating indirect effects. The economic impact of vaccinations should incorporate health and non-health benefits of vaccination in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, thus allowing for estimation of the net social value of vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

The full benefits of vaccination reach beyond direct prevention of etiologically confirmed disease and often extend across the life course of a vaccinated person, prevent outcomes in the wider community, stabilise health systems, promote health equity, and benefit local and national economies. The degree to which vaccinations provide broad public health benefits is stronger than for other preventive and curative interventions.

Interventions to close the divide for women with breast and cervical cancer between low-income and middle-income countries and high-income countries

Breast and cervical cancers are the commonest cancers diagnosed in women living in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where opportunities for prevention, early detection, or both, are few. Yet several cost-effective interventions could be used to reduce the burden of these two cancers in resource-limited environments. Population- wide vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) linked to cervical screening, at least once, for adult women has the potential to reduce the incidence of cervical cancer substantially. Strategies such as visual inspection with acetic acid and testing for oncogenic HPV types could make prevention of cervical cancer programmatically feasible. These two cancers need not be viewed as inevitably fatal, and can be cured, particularly if detected and treated at an early stage. Investing in the health of girls and women is an investment in the development of nations and their futures. Here we explore ways to lessen the divide between LMICs and high-income countries for breast and cervical cancers.

Cost-effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Mongolia

Objective

The Ministry of Health (MOH), Mongolia, is considering introducing 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in its national immunization programme to prevent the burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination in Mongolia.

Methods

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination was assessed using an age-stratified static multiple cohort model. The risk of various clinical presentations of pneumococcal disease (meningitis, pneumonia, non-meningitis non-pneumonia invasive pneumococcal disease and acute otitis media) at all ages for thirty birth cohorts was assessed. The analysis considered both health system and societal perspectives. A 3 + 0 vaccine schedule and price of US$3.30 per dose was assumed for the baseline scenario based on Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance’s advance market commitment tail price.

Results

The ICER of PCV13 introduction is estimated at US$52 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted (health system perspective), and cost-saving (societal perspective). Although indirect effects of PCV have been well-documented, a conservative scenario that does not consider indirect effects estimated PCV13 introduction to cost US$79 per DALY averted (health system perspective), and US$19 per DALY averted (societal perspective). Vaccination with PCV13 is expected to cost around US$920,000 in 2016, and thereafter US$820,000 every year. The programme is likely to reduce direct disease-related costs to MOH by US$440,000 in the first year, increasing to US$510,000 by 2025.

Conclusion

Introducing PCV13 as part of Mongolia’s national programme appears to be highly cost-effective when compared to no vaccination and cost-saving from a societal perspective at vaccine purchase prices offered through Gavi. Notwithstanding uncertainties around some parameters, cost-effectiveness of PCV introduction for Mongolia remains robust over a range of conservative scenarios. Availability of high-quality national data would improve future economic analyses for vaccine introduction.

Challenges in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Modelling of HPV Vaccines in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Practice Recommendations

BACKGROUND

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a number of challenges in implementing cervical cancer prevention programmes that do not apply in high-income countries.

OBJECTIVE

This review assessed how context-specific challenges of implementing cervical cancer prevention strategies in LMICs were accounted for in existing cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

METHODS

The databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, Web of Science, and the Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (CEA) Registry were searched for studies published from 2006 to 2015. A descriptive, narrative, and interpretative synthesis of data was undertaken.

RESULTS

Of the 33 studies included in the review, the majority acknowledged cost per vaccinated girl (CVG) (26 studies) and vaccine coverage rate (21 studies) as particular challenges for LMICs, while nine studies identified screening coverage rate as a challenge. Most of the studies estimated CVG as a composite of different cost items. However, the basis for the items within this composite cost was unclear. The majority used an assumption rather than an observed rate to represent screening and vaccination coverage rates. CVG, vaccine coverage and screening coverage were shown by some studies through sensitivity analyses to reverse the conclusions regarding cost-effectiveness, thereby significantly affecting policy recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS

While many studies recognized aspects of the particular challenges of HPV vaccination in LMICs, greater efforts need to be made in adapting models to account for these challenges. These include adapting costings of HPV vaccine delivery from other countries, learning from the outcomes of cervical cancer screening programmes in the same geographical region, and taking into account the country's previous experience with other vaccination programmes.

The global incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by subsite in 2012

By using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer publication Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents and GLOBOCAN, this report provides the first consolidated global estimation of the subsite distribution of new cases of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by country, sex, and age for the year 2012. Major geographically based, sex-based, and age-based variations in the incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by subsite were observed. Lip cancers were highly frequent in Australia (associated with solar radiation) and in central and eastern Europe (associated with tobacco smoking). Cancers of the oral cavity and hypopharynx were highly common in south-central Asia, especially in India (associated with smokeless tobacco, bidi, and betel-quid use). Rates of oropharyngeal cancers were elevated in northern America and Europe, notably in Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, and France and were associated with alcohol use, tobacco smoking, and human papillomavirus infection. Nasopharyngeal cancers were most common in northern Africa and eastern/southeast Asia, indicative of genetic susceptibility combined with Epstein-Barr virus infection and early life carcinogenic exposures (nitrosamines and salted foods). The global incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers of 529,500, corresponding to 3.8% of all cancer cases, is predicted to rise by 62% to 856,000 cases by 2035 because of changes in demographics. Given the rising incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers and the variations in incidence by subsites across world regions and countries, there is a need for local, tailored approaches to prevention, screening, and treatment interventions that will optimally reduce the lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancer burden in future decades. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:51-64. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Estimating long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV 16/18 vaccine in China

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 are the two most common HPV oncogenic types that can be prevented by vaccination. This study aimed at assessing the cost-effectiveness of 3 doses of the bivalent HPV vaccine in rural and urban settings in China.

METHODS

A Markov model was adapted to reflect the lifetime of a modelled 100,000 12-year-old girls cohort in rural and urban settings in China. Input parameters were obtained from published literature, official reports and a two-round expert review panel. Clinical and economic outcomes of vaccination at age 12 with screening was compared to screening only. In the base case analysis, a 3 % discount rate, the vaccine cost of 247 CNY (US$ 39, PAHO vaccine cost in 2013), two rounds of screening in a life time and 70 % coverage for both screening and vaccination were used. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. We used different thresholds of cost-effectiveness to reflect the diversity of economic development in China.

RESULTS

Vaccination in addition to screening could prevent 60 % more cervical cancer cases and deaths than screening only. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio varied largely when changing cost of vaccination and discount in one way analysis. Vaccination was very cost-effective when the vaccine cost ranged 87-630 CNY (US$ 13.8-100) in rural and 87-750 CNY (US$ 13.8-119) in urban; and remained cost-effective when the vaccine cost ranged 630-1,700 CNY (US$ 100-270) in rural and 750-1,900 CNY (US$ 119-302) in urban in two way analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that model results were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

In both rural and urban, the vaccination cost and discounting are important factors determining the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination; policy makers in China should take these into account when making a decision on the introduction of HPV vaccine. In areas with a high burden of cervical cancer and limited screening activities, HPV vaccination should be prioritized. However, the vaccine cost needs to be reduced in order to make it very cost-effective and affordable as well, in particular in poverty areas with high disease burden.

A Markov Decision Process Model for Cervical Cancer Screening Policies in Colombia

Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer in women around the world, and the human papillomavirus (HPV) is universally known as the necessary agent for developing this disease. Through early detection of abnormal cells and HPV virus types, cervical cancer incidents can be reduced and disease progression prevented. We propose a finite-horizon Markov decision process model to determine the optimal screening policies for cervical cancer prevention. The optimal decision is given in terms of when and what type of screening test to be performed on a patient based on her current diagnosis, age, HPV contraction risk, and screening test results. The cost function considers the tradeoff between the cost of prevention and treatment procedures and the risk of taking no action while taking into account a cost assigned to loss of life quality in each state. We apply the model to data collected from a representative sample of 1141 affiliates at a health care provider located in Bogotá, Colombia. To track the disease incidence more effectively and avoid higher cancer rates and future costs, the optimal policies recommend more frequent colposcopies and Pap tests for women with riskier profiles.

Economic Evaluation of Screening Strategies Combined with HPV Vaccination of Preadolescent Girls for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Vientiane, Lao PDR

Background

Several approaches to reduce the incidence of invasive cervical cancers exist. The approach adopted should take into account contextual factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of the available options.

Objective

To determine the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies combined with a vaccination program for 10-year old girls for cervical cancer prevention in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

Methods

A population-based dynamic compartment model was constructed. The interventions consisted of a 10-year old girl vaccination program only, or this program combined with screening strategies, i.e., visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), cytology-based screening, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing, or combined VIA and cytology testing. Simulations were run over 100 years. In base-case scenario analyses, we assumed a 70% vaccination coverage with lifelong protection and a 50% screening coverage. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost per Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted.

Results

In base-case scenarios, compared to the next best strategy, the model predicted that VIA screening of women aged 30–65 years old every three years, combined with vaccination, was the most attractive option, costing 2 544 international dollars (I$) per DALY averted. Meanwhile, rapid HPV DNA testing was predicted to be more attractive than cytology-based screening or its combination with VIA. Among cytology-based screening options, combined VIA with conventional cytology testing was predicted to be the most attractive option. Multi-way sensitivity analyses did not change the results. Compared to rapid HPV DNA testing, VIA had a probability of cost-effectiveness of 73%. Compared to the vaccination only option, the probability that a program consisting of screening women every five years would be cost-effective was around 60% and 80% if the willingness-to-pay threshold is fixed at one and three GDP per capita, respectively.

Conclusions

A VIA screening program in addition to a girl vaccination program was predicted to be the most attractive option in the health care context of Lao PDR. When compared with other screening methods, VIA was the primary recommended method for combination with vaccination in Lao PDR.

The economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination strategies against cervical cancer in women in Lao PDR: a mathematical modelling approach

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer, a preventable disease, is the third leading cause of cancer morbidity and mortality in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). Since many cervical cancers are linked to human papilloma virus (HPV) infection, vaccination against this virus may lead to a reduction in these types of cancer. The study described here is the first to compare the cost-effectiveness of different HPV vaccination options in Lao PDR.

METHODS

A dynamic compartment model was created. The model included routine screening activities already in place, as well as theoretical interventions that included a 10-year old girl-only vaccination programme combined with/without a 10-year old boy vaccination programme and/or a catch-up component. The simulation was run over 100 years. In base case analyses, we assumed 70 % vaccination coverage with lifelong protection and 100 % efficacy against HPV types 16/18. The outcomes of interest were the incremental cost per Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted.

RESULTS

In base case analyses, according to the WHO definition of cost-effectiveness thresholds, vaccinating 10-year-old girls was very cost-effective. Adding a catch-up vaccination element for females aged 11-25 years was also very cost-effective, costing 1559 international dollars (I$) per DALY averted. Increasing the age limit of the catch-up vaccination component to 75 years old showed that this remained a cost-effective option (I$ 5840 per DALY averted). Adding a vaccination programme for 10-year-old boys was not found to be cost-effective unless a short time simulation (30 years or less) was considered, along with a catch-up vaccination component for both males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding a catch-up female vaccination component is more attractive than adding a 10-year-old boy vaccination component.

Eurogin Roadmap 2015: How has HPV knowledge changed our practice: Vaccines

This review is one of two complementary reviews that have been prepared in the framework of the Eurogin Roadmap 2015 to evaluate how knowledge about HPV is changing practices in HPV infection and disease control through vaccination and screening. In this review of HPV vaccine knowledge, we present the most significant findings of the past year which have contributed to our knowledge of the two HPV prophylactic vaccines currently in widespread use and about the recently licensed nonavalent HPV vaccine. Whereas anal cancer is dealt with in the companion mini-review on screening, we also review here the rapidly evolving evidence regarding HPV-associated head and neck cancer and priority research areas.

Mothers' willingness to pay for HPV vaccines in Anambra state, Nigeria: a cross sectional contingent valuation study

BACKGROUND

Human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination in Nigeria will require substantial financing due to high cost of HPV vaccine and inexistence of structures to support adolescent vaccination. Alternative sources are needed to sustain the government funded HPV vaccination programme. This study assessed Nigerian mothers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for HPV vaccine. We also compared the difference between the average WTP and estimated costs of vaccinating a pre-adolescent girl (CVG).

METHODS

We conducted a quantitative, cross-sectional, survey-based study in which 50 questionnaires were distributed to each of 10 secondary schools located in two rural and one urban city in Anambra state. The questionnaires were then randomly distributed to girls aged 9-12 years of age to give to their mothers. Contingent valuation approach using the payment card technique was used to estimate the average maximum WTP among the survey participants. Correlates of WTP for HPV vaccination were obtained using multivariate logistic regression. Estimated CVG was obtained by adapting cost of HPV vaccine delivery in Tanzania to the Nigerian setting.

RESULTS

A total of 438 questionnaires (88 %) were returned. The average WTP was US$ 11.68. This is opposed to estimated delivery cost of US$ 18.16 and US$ 19.26 for urban and rural populations respectively at vaccine price offered by the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi) and US$ 35.16 and US$ 36.26 for urban and rural populations respectively at the lowest obtainable public sector vaccine price. Demand for HPV vaccine was deemed high (91.6 %) and was significantly associated with respondents previously diagnosed of HPV infection.

CONCLUSION

Demand for HPV vaccine was high although short of estimated CVG. High demand for vaccine should be capitalized upon to increase vaccine uptake. Education on cervical cancer and provider-initiated vaccination should be promoted to increase vaccine uptake. Co-payment could be a feasible financing strategy in the event of national HPV vaccination.

Cervical cancer prevention and treatment research in Africa: a systematic review from a public health perspective

BACKGROUND

Women living in Africa experience the highest burden of cervical cancer. Research and investment to improve vaccination, screening, and treatment efforts are critically needed. We systematically reviewed and characterized recent research within a broader public health framework to organize and assess the range of cervical cancer research in Africa.

METHODS

We searched online databases and the Internet for published articles and cervical cancer reports in African countries. Inclusion criteria included publication between 2004 and 2014, cervical cancer-related content pertinent to one of the four public health categories (primary, secondary, tertiary prevention or quality of life), and conducted in or specifically relevant to countries or regions within the African continent. The study design, geographic region/country, focus of research, and key findings were documented for each eligible article and summarized to illustrate the weight and research coverage in each area. Publications with more than one focus (e.g. secondary and tertiary prevention) were categorized by the primary emphasis of the paper. Research specific to HIV-infected women or focused on feasibility issues was delineated within each of the four public health categories.

RESULTS

A total of 380 research articles/reports were included. The majority (54.6 %) of cervical cancer research in Africa focused on secondary prevention (i.e., screening). The number of publication focusing on primary prevention (23.4 %), particularly HPV vaccination, increased significantly in the past decade. Research regarding the treatment of precancerous lesions and invasive cervical cancer is emerging (17.6 %), but infrastructure and feasibility challenges in many countries have impeded efforts to provide and evaluate treatment. Studies assessing aspects of quality of life among women living with cervical cancer are severely limited (4.1 %). Across all categories, 11.3 % of publications focused on cervical cancer among HIV-infected women, while 17.1 % focused on aspects of feasibility for cervical cancer control efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical cancer research in African countries has increased steadily over the past decade, but more is needed. Tertiary prevention (i.e. treatment of disease with effective medicine) and quality of life of cervical cancer survivors are two severely under-researched areas. Similarly, there are several countries in Africa with little to no research ever conducted on cervical cancer.