Modeling cervical cancer prevention in developed countries

Stochastic dynamics of human papillomavirus delineates cervical cancer progression

Starting from a deterministic model, we propose and study a stochastic model for human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer progression. Our analysis shows that the chronic infection state as random variables which have the ergodic invariant probability measure is necessary for progression from infected cell population to cervical cancer cells. It is shown that small progression rate from infected cells to precancerous cells and small microenvironmental noises associated with the progression rate and viral infection help to establish such chronic infection states. It implicates that large environmental noises associated with viral infection and the progression rate in vivo can reduce chronic infection. We further show that there will be a cervical cancer if the noise associated with precancerous cell growth is large enough. In addition, comparable numerical studies for the deterministic model and stochastic model, together with Hopf bifurcations in both deterministic and stochastic systems, highlight our analytical results.

Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme.

METHODS

Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021-2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme.

RESULTS

Over the years 2021-2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1-130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1-161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6-169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14-3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75-85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.

The trend of change in cervical tumor size and time to death of hospitalized patients in northwestern Ethiopia during 2018-2022: Retrospective study design

Background and Aims

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer-related death in the world. The objective of this study was to determine factors that affect the longitudinal change of tumor size and the time to death of outpat.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was carried out among 322 randomly selected patients with cervical cancer at the University of Gondar Referral Hospital from May 15, 2018 to May 15, 2022. Data were extracted from the patient's chart from all patients' data records. Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, the Cox proportional-hazard model, and the joint model for the two response variables simultaneously were used.

Results

Among 322 outpatients with cervical cancer, 148 (46%) of them were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive and 107 (33.3%) of them died. The results of joint and separate models show that there is an association between survival and the longitudinal data in the analysis; it indicates that there is a dependency between longitudinal terms of cervical tumor size and time-to-death events. A unit centimeter square rise in tumor size, corresponding to an exp(0.8502) = 2.34 times, significantly raised the mortality risk.

Conclusion

The study showed that HIV, stage of cancer, treatment, weight, history of abortion, oral contraceptive use, smoking status, and visit time were statistically significant factors for the two outcomes jointly.

Implications

As a result, adequate health services and adequate resource allocations are critical for cervical cancer control and prevention programs. Therefore, the government should provide adequate funding and well-trained health professionals to hospitals to sustain screening programs with appropriate coverage of cervical cancer patient treatments.

Direct cost of cochlear implants in Germany - a strategic simulation

BACKGROUND

Despite the current undersupply of cochlear implants (CIs) with simultaneously increasing indication, CI implantation numbers in Germany still are at a relatively low level.

METHODS

As there are hardly any solid forecasts available in the literature, we develop a System Dynamics model that forecasts the number and costs of CI implantations in adults for 40 years from a social health insurance (SHI) perspective.

RESULTS

CI demand will grow marginally by demographic changes causing average annual costs of about 538 million €. Medical-technical progress with following relaxed indication criteria and patients' increasing willingness for implantation will increase implantation numbers significantly with average annual costs of 765 million €.

CONCLUSION

CI demand by adults will increase in the future, thus will the costs for CI supply. Continuous research and development in CI technology and supply is crucial to ensure long-term financing of the growing CI demand through cost-reducing innovations.

Factors associated with cervical cancer screening among women aged 25-60 years in Lao People's Democratic Republic

BACKGROUND

Despite cervical cancer being a major public health concern in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), screening coverage is very low. The reasons and factors for this are unknown. This study aimed to identify factors associated with uptake of cervical cancer screening among women aged 25-60 years.

METHODS

The case-control study was conducted among women aged 25-60 years in Vientiane Capital and Luang Prabang province from March 15 to May 31, 2018. A total of 360 women were included in the study, a ratio of two controls per case. The cases were women who had undergone cervical cancer screening over the last five years. The controls were women who had never been screened or screened more than five years before, matched to the cases with residency and age (± five years). The cases were selected from central and provincial hospitals and the controls from the same community and districts where the cases resided. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with cervical cancer screening.

RESULTS

The mean age was 42.37±9.4 years (range: 25-60), 66.67% were women from Vientiane Capital, and 86.11% were married. The common reasons for not being screened were the absence of clinical signs and symptoms (45.28%) followed by never having heard about cervical cancer (13.33%). In the multivariable analyses, we found that having sexually transmitted infections (AOR = 3.93; 95% CI = 1.92-8.05), receiving recommendations for screening from health workers (AOR = 3.85; 95% CI = 1.90-7.78), a high score for knowledge (AOR = 7.90; 95% CI = 2.43-25.69) and attitude towards cervical cancer prevention and treatment (AOR = 2.26; 95% CI = 1.18-7.16), and having a car to travel (AOR = 2.97; 95% CI = 1.44-6.11) had a positive impact on undergoing cervical cancer screening.

CONCLUSION

Gynecological consultations, increased knowledge and positive attitudes result in women undergoing screening. Therefore, health education and advocacy for cervical cancer prevention should be provided to women.

A comparative analysis of cervical cancer prevention between Nigeria and Nordic countries that have experienced a decline in cervical cancer incidence

BACKGROUND

A modelling analysis carried out in 2014 suggested that, without cervical cancer screening programmes, the incidence of cervical cancer in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden would have been as high as that in some low- and middle-income countries. We compare programme strategies between Nigeria and these Nordic countries and develop translatable recommendations.

METHODS

A literature review using a systematic approach through Medline, Popline, Global Health, CINAHL PLUS, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Google Scholar, Africa Wide and WHO databases was conducted.

RESULTS

Fifteen journal articles and two grey literature reports met our criteria. Six descriptive studies from Nigeria noted that services in Nigeria were mainly provided in urban secondary/tertiary facilities and that uptake was low even where screening was free. Trials in Nigeria and Sweden noted that subsidies and free programmes alone did not improve uptake; a Danish trial demonstrated that reminders and invitations issued by general practitioners improved participation.

CONCLUSION

Free screening programmes are important but should also consider incentivisation of treatment when needed and demand creation among health workers. Additionally, effective monitoring and evaluation of programme data are key to improving and maintaining quality. More broadly, we suggest that Nigeria can build success through stakeholder-led implementation of well-defined policies with national consensus to ensure coordination and sustainability.

Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the Global South: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Many reviews have been conducted on the economic evaluation of the HPV vaccine in global north countries. But there is a dearth of such reviews in the Global South countries. Hence, this systematic review aims to summarize studies done in these countries.

METHODS

Four databases PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2019 were searched for economic evaluations on HPV vaccination in the Global South countries. PRISMA guidelines were followed to include full-text articles. 40 original articles were shortlisted for full-text review.

RESULTS

Studies had varied models, assumptions, and results according to different scenarios. Most studies concluded HPV vaccination to be cost-effective under varied scenarios and vaccine cost was the most influential parameter affecting the sensitivity analyses, consequently incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. A wide range in the cost-effectiveness ratio was observed in the included studies due to different study settings, populations, and inconsistencies in modeling practices (variations in methodological approaches).

CONCLUSIONS

This review suggests the introduction of HPV vaccination alone or in combination with screening according to different countries. The price of the vaccine should be economical and funds for the vaccine should be provided by public sector firms.

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making.

Guidelines for multi-model comparisons of the impact of infectious disease interventions

BACKGROUND

Despite the increasing popularity of multi-model comparison studies and their ability to inform policy recommendations, clear guidance on how to conduct multi-model comparisons is not available. Herein, we present guidelines to provide a structured approach to comparisons of multiple models of interventions against infectious diseases. The primary target audience for these guidelines are researchers carrying out model comparison studies and policy-makers using model comparison studies to inform policy decisions.

METHODS

The consensus process used for the development of the guidelines included a systematic review of existing model comparison studies on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination, a 2-day meeting and guideline development workshop during which mathematical modellers from different disease areas critically discussed and debated the guideline content and wording, and several rounds of comments on sequential versions of the guidelines by all authors.

RESULTS

The guidelines provide principles for multi-model comparisons, with specific practice statements on what modellers should do for six domains. The guidelines provide explanation and elaboration of the principles and practice statements as well as some examples to illustrate these. The principles are (1) the policy and research question - the model comparison should address a relevant, clearly defined policy question; (2) model identification and selection - the identification and selection of models for inclusion in the model comparison should be transparent and minimise selection bias; (3) harmonisation - standardisation of input data and outputs should be determined by the research question and value of the effort needed for this step; (4) exploring variability - between- and within-model variability and uncertainty should be explored; (5) presenting and pooling results - results should be presented in an appropriate way to support decision-making; and (6) interpretation - results should be interpreted to inform the policy question.

CONCLUSION

These guidelines should help researchers plan, conduct and report model comparisons of infectious diseases and related interventions in a systematic and structured manner for the purpose of supporting health policy decisions. Adherence to these guidelines will contribute to greater consistency and objectivity in the approach and methods used in multi-model comparisons, and as such improve the quality of modelled evidence for policy.

Model Comparisons of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination: A Systematic Review of the Literature

OBJECTIVES

To describe all published articles that have conducted comparisons of model-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results in the field of vaccination. Specific objectives were to 1) describe the methodologies used and 2) identify the strengths and limitations of the studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase databases for studies that compared predictions of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of two or more mathematical models. We categorized studies into two groups on the basis of their data source for comparison (previously published results or new simulation results) and performed a qualitative synthesis of study conclusions.

RESULTS

We identified 115 eligible articles (only 5% generated new simulations from the reviewed models) examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against 14 pathogens (69% of studies examined human papillomavirus, influenza, and/or pneumococcal vaccines). The goal of most of studies was to summarize evidence for vaccination policy decisions, and cost-effectiveness was the most frequent outcome examined. Only 33%, 25%, and 3% of studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies, assessed the quality of studies, and performed a quantitative synthesis of results, respectively. A greater proportion of model comparisons using published studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies and to assess their quality, whereas more studies using new simulations performed quantitative synthesis of results and identified drivers of model conclusions. Most comparative modeling studies concluded that vaccination was cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the variability in methods used to conduct/report comparative modeling studies, guidelines are required to enhance their quality and transparency and to provide better tools for decision making.

Simple but not simpler: a systematic review of Markov models for economic evaluation of cervical cancer screening

The aim of this study was to critically evaluate the quality of the models used in economic evaluations of screening strategies for cervical cancer prevention. We systematically searched multiple databases, selecting model-based full economic evaluations (cost-effectiveness analyses, cost-utility analyses, and cost-benefit analyses) of cervical cancer screening strategies. Two independent reviewers screened articles for relevance and performed data extraction. Methodological assessment of the quality of the models utilized formal checklists, and a qualitative narrative synthesis was performed. Thirty-eight articles were reviewed. The majority of the studies were conducted in high-income countries (82%, n=31). The Pap test was the most used screening strategy investigated, which was present in 86% (n=33) of the studies. Half of the studies (n=19) used a previously published Markov model. The deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed in 92% (n=35) of the studies. The mean number of properly reported checklist items was 9 out of the maximum possible 18. Items that were better reported included the statement of decision problem, the description of the strategies/comparators, the statement of time horizon, and information regarding the disease states. Compliance with some items of the checklist was poor. The Markov models for economic evaluation of screening strategies for cervical cancer varied in quality. The following points require improvement: 1) assessment of methodological, structural, heterogeneity, and parameter uncertainties; 2) model type and cycle length justification; 3) methods to account for heterogeneity; and 4) report of consistency evaluation (through calibration and validation methods).

Human papillomavirus vaccination and the role of herd effects in future cancer control planning: a review

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine herd effects are the indirect protection that vaccinated persons provide to those who remain susceptible to infection, due to the reduced transmission of infections. Herd effects have been an important part of the discourse on how to best implement human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and prevent HPV-related diseases.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the theory of HPV vaccine herd effects derived from mathematical models, give an account of observed HPV vaccine herd effects worldwide, and examine the implications of vaccine herd effects for future cervical cancer screening efforts.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

HPV vaccine herd effects improve the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating preadolescent girls, but contribute to making gender-neutral vaccination less economically efficient. Vaccination coverage and sexual mixing patterns by age are strong determinants of herd effects. Many countries worldwide are starting to observe reductions in HPV-related outcomes likely attributable to herd effects, most notably declining anogenital warts in young men, and declining HPV-16/18 infection prevalence in young unvaccinated women. Policy makers making recommendations for cervical cancer screening will have to consider HPV vaccination coverage and herd effects, as these will affect the positive predictive value of screening and the risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated women.

Comparative testing of HPV L1 protein monoclonal antibody panel for the detection of HPV in cervical exfoliated cells

AIMS

To determine the value of a monoclonal antibody panel against a C-terminal conserved sequence polypeptide of human papillomavirus (HPV) L1 (a major capsid protein) for the detection of HPV in cervical exfoliated cells, as well as the potential of this antibody panel to be developed into an assay kit for the clinical screening of cervical cancer.

METHODS

Cervical exfoliated cells were collected at a gynecology clinic. One part of each sample was sent to the Department of Pathology for HPV genotyping, and the other part was sent to the Department of Pathology for cytologic testing and then to the laboratory for immunological histological chemistry (IHC) assay in which an HPV L1 C-terminal conserved sequence polypeptide-induced mouse monoclonal antibody panel was used to detect HPV L1.

RESULTS

Cervical cell samples were collected from 514 patients at the gynecology clinic; of these, 339 samples were sent for HPV genotyping, and 220 were HPV positive (64.90%, 220/339). Moreover, the duplicate samples from these 339 patients were sent for IHC assay, and 229 samples were positive (67.55%, 229/339). The IHC result was concordant with that obtained by HPV genotyping (Kappa = 0.743, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that use of the HPV L1 C-terminal conserved sequence polypeptide-induced mouse monoclonal antibody panel was of great value for the detection of HPV in cervical cells; the resulting detection rate was comparable to that obtained using the commercial HPV genotyping kit that is currently in use in clinical practice.

Introduction of p16INK4a as a surrogate biomarker for HPV in women with invasive cervical cancer in Sudan

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide with highest incidence reported in Eastern Africa in 2012. The primary goal of this study was to study the expression of p16^INK4a in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and determine relation with clinico-pathological parameters. This study further explored the correlation of p16^INK4a immunostaining with another proliferation marker, Ki-67 and to study if human papillomavirus (HPV) IHC can be used as a marker for detection of virus in high-grade dysplasia.

METHODS

A total of 90 samples, diagnosed for cervical cancer, were included in the study. Fixed Paraffin Embedded (FFPE) tissue sections were stained with anti-p16^INK4a, anti-Ki-67 and anti-HPV antibodies using automated immunohistochemistry platform (ASLink 48-DAKO).

RESULTS

Immunohistochemical protein expression of p16^INK4a positivity was found to be highest in SCC (92.2%, n = 71) than other HPV tumors (76.9%, n = 10). The majority of cases (97.4%) were p16^INK4a positive in the age group 41-60 years. In addition, a statistically significant difference between p16^INK4a and HPV was observed among total cervical tumor cases and SCC cases.

CONCLUSIONS

As expected staining of invasive cervical cancer with anti-HPV showed rare positivity because HPV heralds active infection in dysplastic lesions and not of frank cervical carcinoma. In contrast, anti-p16^INK4a IHC results showed positive correlation in SCC and other cervical tumors.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Uptake in Canada: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most commonly sexually transmitted infection in the world and the primary cause of cervical cancer. Canada introduced publicly funded HPV vaccination programs in 2006. The objectives of this study are twofold and aim to (1) determine the levels and (2) examine the various factors influencing vaccine uptake among the general Canadian population. A literature search was conducted on seven databases, followed by screening, methodological quality review (using modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale), and data extraction. Pooled meta-analysis and a subgroup analysis were conducted stratifying by a number of variables (age, sex, type of program, and method of payment) determined apriori. A total of 718 peer-reviewed articles were initially identified with 12 remaining after screening and underwent methodological quality review. HPV vaccination uptake in Canada varied from 12.40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.77–20.26) to 88.20% (95% CI 85.72–90.39). The pooled random effects model showed the HPV vaccination uptake to be 55.92% (95% CI 44.87–66.65). The subgroup analysis showed that vaccination uptake was 66.95% (95% CI 55.00–77.89) in participants ≤ 18 years as compared to 13.58% (95% CI 10.93–16.46) in participants > 18 years. Uptake for females was higher 57.23% (95% CI: 45.40–68.66) when compared to that of 47.01% (95% CI: 0.82–97.75) in males. HPV vaccine uptake among school-based programs was 69.62% (95% CI 57.27–80.68) as compared to 18.66% (95% CI 6.66–34.92) for community-based programs. Vaccination uptake for publicly funded programs was significantly higher 66.95% (95% CI 55.00–77.89) when compared to 13.58% (95% CI 10.92–16.46) for programs where participants had to pay out of pocket. To prevent infections and reduce the burden of HPV-related diseases (including cervical cancer), communities should be made aware and encouraged to vaccinate their children. There is a documented need to direct effort and focus interventions toward improving HPV vaccination uptake in Canada.

Influence of Human Papillomavirus Infection on the Natural History of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia 1: A Meta-Analysis

Objective

To provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 (CIN1). This study evaluated the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection on the natural history of CIN1.

Methods

Electronic databases of Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PubMed, CNKI, CBM, and Wanfang were searched in April 2016. The eligibility criteria were documented by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). We used the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) to assess study quality.

Results

Thirty-eight studies out of 3,246 identified papers were eligible for inclusion. The risk of CIN1 progression (relative risk [RR]: 3.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.41–3.83; P < 0.00001) and persistence (RR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.17–1.87; P = 0.001) was higher in the HPV-positive group than HPV-negative group. Specifically, the risk of CIN1 progression (RR: 13.91; 95% CI: 3.46–55.90; P = 0.000) was higher among persistent high-risk HPV-positive patients and the ratio of CIN1 regression (RR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59–0.71; P < 0.00001) was lower in the HPV-positive group than HPV-negative group.

Conclusion

HPV infection resulted in an increased risk of CIN1 progression and decreased disease reversibility. Persistent high-risk HPV infection resulted in a further increased risk of CIN1 progression.

Projected impact of Cervarix™ vaccination on oncogenic human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer in the United Kingdom

We developed a dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of HPV Universal Mass Vaccination (UMV) with Cervarix™, which offers protection against HPV16/18 and cross-protection against other cancer-causing types, using up-to-date efficacy data. Analyses were performed in the UK because of the large amount of high quality epidemiological data available. For each HPV type/group of types considered, the model was calibrated to 14 epidemiological datasets (prevalence of HPV infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN): CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 pre-screening and cervical cancer (CC) incidence over 10 y post-screening). Impacts of cross-protection, female catch-up vaccination, and additional male vaccination on oncogenic infections, high-grade CIN (CIN2+) and CC were evaluated. Our results show that female UMV with 80% coverage and cross-protection against high-risk types resulted in 81% CIN2+ and 88% CC reductions vs. 57% and 75%, respectively, without cross-protection. Vaccinating 40% of males and 80% of females was equivalent to 90% female-only coverage regarding CIN2+ (87% and 87%, respectively) and CC (93% and 94%, respectively) reductions. Female-only coverage of 80% substantially reduced male HPV16 and 18 infection due to herd protection (74% and 89%, respectively). Increasing female coverage to 90% reduced HPV16 and HPV18 infections in males relatively similarly to 80% female combined with 40% male coverage. Model outcomes strengthen previous conclusions about the significant added value of Cervarix™ cross-protection for CC prevention, the primary HPV vaccination public health priority. Regarding female CC prevention and male HPV16/18 infection, small increases in female coverage induce similar benefits to those achieved by additionally vaccinating men with 40% coverage.

Economic Evaluation of Screening Strategies Combined with HPV Vaccination of Preadolescent Girls for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Vientiane, Lao PDR

Background

Several approaches to reduce the incidence of invasive cervical cancers exist. The approach adopted should take into account contextual factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of the available options.

Objective

To determine the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies combined with a vaccination program for 10-year old girls for cervical cancer prevention in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

Methods

A population-based dynamic compartment model was constructed. The interventions consisted of a 10-year old girl vaccination program only, or this program combined with screening strategies, i.e., visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), cytology-based screening, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing, or combined VIA and cytology testing. Simulations were run over 100 years. In base-case scenario analyses, we assumed a 70% vaccination coverage with lifelong protection and a 50% screening coverage. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost per Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted.

Results

In base-case scenarios, compared to the next best strategy, the model predicted that VIA screening of women aged 30–65 years old every three years, combined with vaccination, was the most attractive option, costing 2 544 international dollars (I$) per DALY averted. Meanwhile, rapid HPV DNA testing was predicted to be more attractive than cytology-based screening or its combination with VIA. Among cytology-based screening options, combined VIA with conventional cytology testing was predicted to be the most attractive option. Multi-way sensitivity analyses did not change the results. Compared to rapid HPV DNA testing, VIA had a probability of cost-effectiveness of 73%. Compared to the vaccination only option, the probability that a program consisting of screening women every five years would be cost-effective was around 60% and 80% if the willingness-to-pay threshold is fixed at one and three GDP per capita, respectively.

Conclusions

A VIA screening program in addition to a girl vaccination program was predicted to be the most attractive option in the health care context of Lao PDR. When compared with other screening methods, VIA was the primary recommended method for combination with vaccination in Lao PDR.

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies]

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Effect of vaccination age on cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination against cervical cancer in China

Background

The cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in women pre-sexual debut has been demonstrated in many countries. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a 3-dose bivalent HPV vaccination at ages 12 to 55 year in both rural and urban settings in China.

Methods

The Markov cohort model simulated the natural history of HPV infection and included the effect of screening and HPV vaccination over the lifetime of a 100,000 female cohort. Transition probabilities and utilities were obtained from published literature. Cost data were estimated by Delphi panel using healthcare payers’ perspective. Vaccine cost was assumed Hong Kong listed price. Vaccine efficacy (VE) was based on the PATRICIA trial data assuming VE irrespective of HPV type at all ages on incident HPV. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3 %. Cervical cancer cases and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for vaccination and screening compared with screening alone were estimated for each vaccination age. Reduced VE in women post-sexual debut were investigated in scenario analyses.

Results

With 70 % vaccination coverage, a reduction of cancer cases varying from 585 to 33 in rural and 691 to 32 in urban were estimated at ages 12 to 55, respectively. The discounted ICERs of vaccination at any age under 23 years in rural and any age under 25 years in urban were lower than the current threshold. Scenario analyses with lower VE post-sexual debut confirmed the results with age 20 in rural and 21 in urban had consistent lower ICERs. The more ‘catch-up’ cohorts vaccinated at the start of a program, the more cancer lesions are avoided in the long-term.

Conclusions

Vaccination at any age under 23 years old in rural and any age under 25 years old in urban were cost-effective. Catch-up to the age of 25 years in rural and urban could still be cost-effective.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2207-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Update on human papillomavirus vaccination: Where are we now?

Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is the major cause of pre-invasive and invasive lesions of the urogenital tract, resulting in morbidity and mortality worldwide. HPV-related infection is responsible for most cases of cervical cancer, a leading cause of cancer death in women worldwide. Developed countries have screening programs in place to detect precancerous lesions at early stages; in resource-limited settings however, HPV related diseases are often identified in advanced stages. This is due to limitations in the availability and roll out of effective screening programs. The relatively recent availability of the HPV vaccine has provided a new public health opportunity to decrease the incidence of HPV-related disease. The high mortality rates seen in developing countries could be reduced through effective implementation of HPV vaccination programs. Large trials have proven the efficacy of bivalent, quadrivalent vaccine and most recently 9-valent vaccine. Uptake in vaccination remains low due to multiple barriers including lack of education, lack of access, and costs. New strategies are being assessed to increase access, increase knowledge and reduce costs that may result in feasible vaccination programs worldwide. The goal of this article is to review the effectiveness and safety of the current HPV vaccines available, vaccine delivery strategies, cost effectiveness, and efforts to improve the acceptability. A literature search was conducted through PubMed using the terms “HPV vaccination, and safety, and males, and acceptability and strategies, and cost effectiveness,”focusing on articles published between 2006 and 2015. The most relevant and larger scale trials were evaluated for discussion.

HPV-FASTER: broadening the scope for prevention of HPV-related cancer

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related screening technologies and HPV vaccination offer enormous potential for cancer prevention, notably prevention of cervical cancer. The effectiveness of these approaches is, however, suboptimal owing to limited implementation of screening programmes and restricted indications for HPV vaccination. Trials of HPV vaccination in women aged up to 55 years have shown almost 90% protection from cervical precancer caused by HPV16/18 among HPV16/18-DNA-negative women. We propose extending routine vaccination programmes to women of up to 30 years of age (and to the 45-50-year age groups in some settings), paired with at least one HPV-screening test at age 30 years or older. Expanding the indications for HPV vaccination and much greater use of HPV testing in screening programmes has the potential to accelerate the decline in cervical cancer incidence. Such a combined protocol would represent an attractive approach for many health-care systems, in particular, countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia, and some more-developed parts of Africa. The role of vaccination in women aged >30 years and the optimal number of HPV-screening tests required in vaccinated women remain important research issues. Cost-effectiveness models will help determine the optimal combination of HPV vaccination and screening in public health programmes, and to estimate the effects of such approaches in different populations.

The Dynamics of HPV Infection and Cervical Cancer Cells

The development of cervical cells from normal cells infected by human papillomavirus into invasive cancer cells can be modeled using population dynamics of the cells and free virus. The cell populations are separated into four compartments: susceptible cells, infected cells, precancerous cells and cancer cells. The model system of differential equations also has a free virus compartment in the system, which infect normal cells. We analyze the local stability of the equilibrium points of the model and investigate the parameters, which play an important role in the progression toward invasive cancer. By simulation, we investigate the boundary between initial conditions of solutions, which tend to stable equilibrium point, representing controlled infection, and those which tend to unbounded growth of the cancer cell population. Parameters affected by drug treatment are varied, and their effect on the risk of cancer progression is explored.

Beware of Kinked Frontiers: A Systematic Review of the Choice of Comparator Strategies in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Human Papillomavirus Testing in Cervical Screening

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the choice of comparator strategies in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of human papillomavirus testing in cervical screening.

METHODS

The PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and Scopus databases were searched to identify eligible model-based CEAs of cervical screening programs using human papillomavirus testing. The eligible CEAs were reviewed to investigate what screening strategies were chosen for analysis and how this choice might have influenced estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Selected examples from the reviewed studies are presented to illustrate how the omission of relevant comparators might influence estimates of screening cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The search identified 30 eligible CEAs. The omission of relevant comparator strategies appears likely in 18 studies. The ICER estimates in these cases are probably lower than would be estimated had more comparators been included. Five of the 30 studies restricted relevant comparator strategies to sensitivity analyses or other subanalyses not part of the principal base-case analysis. Such exclusion of relevant strategies from the base-case analysis can result in cost-ineffective strategies being identified as cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Many of the CEAs reviewed appear to include insufficient comparator strategies. In particular, they omit strategies with relatively long screening intervals. Omitting relevant comparators matters particularly if it leads to the underestimation of ICERs for strategies around the cost-effectiveness threshold because these strategies are the most policy relevant from the CEA perspective. Consequently, such CEAs may not be providing the best possible policy guidance and lead to the mistaken adoption of cost-ineffective screening strategies.

Underscreened Women Remain Overrepresented in the Pool of Cervical Cancer Cases in Spain: A Need to Rethink the Screening Interventions

OBJECTIVE

Audit of women with invasive cervical cancer (CC) is critical for quality control within screening activities. We analysed the screening history in the 10 years preceding the study entry in women with and without CC during 2000-2011.

METHODS

323 women with CC from six pathology departments in Catalonia (Spain) and 23,782 women with negative cytology were compared. Age, previous history of cytologies, and histological type and FIGO stage were collected from the pathology registries. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI95%).

RESULTS

History of cytology was registered in 26.2% of CC cases and in 78% of the control women (P < 0.0001) and its frequency decreased with increasing age. Compared to women with squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma cases were significantly more likely to have a cytology within the 3-year interval preceding cancer diagnosis (OR = 2.6 CI 95%: 1.2-5.6) and to have normal cytology results in previous screenings (OR = 2.4 CI 95%: 1.2-4.5). FIGO II-IV cases were more common among older women (older than 60 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Absence of prior screening history was extremely common among CC cases compared to controls. Organized actions to reduce underscreened women and use of highly sensitive HPV-based tests could be important to reduce CC burden.

Projected impact of Cervarix® vaccination on oncogenic human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer in the United Kingdom

We developed a dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of HPV Universal Mass Vaccination with Cervarix(®), which offers protection against HPV16/18 and cross-protection against other cancer-causing types, using up-to-date efficacy data.   Analyses were performed in the UK because of the large amount of high quality epidemiological data available. For each HPV type/group of types considered, the model was calibrated to 14 epidemiological data sets (prevalence of HPV infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN): CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 pre-screening and cervical cancer (CC) incidence over 10 years post-screening). Impacts of cross-protection, female catch-up vaccination, and additional male vaccination on oncogenic infections, high-grade CIN (CIN2+) and CC were evaluated. Our results show that female UMV with 80% coverage and cross-protection against high-risk types resulted in 79% CIN2+ and 84% CC reductions vs. 55% and 71%, respectively, without cross-protection. Vaccinating 40% of males and 80% of females was equivalent to 90% female-only coverage regarding CIN2+ (85% and 86%, respectively) and CC (90% and 91%, respectively) reductions. Female-only coverage of 80% substantially reduced male HPV16 and 18 infection due to herd protection (59% and 80%, respectively). Increasing female coverage to 90% reduced HPV16 and HPV18 infections in males similarly to 80% female combined with 20% and 40% male coverage, respectively. Model outcomes strengthen previous conclusions about the significant added value of Cervarix(®) cross-protection for CC prevention, the primary HPV vaccination public health priority. Regarding female CC prevention and male HPV16/18 infection, small increases in female coverage induce similar benefits achieved by additionally vaccinating men with 20-40% coverage.

Economic evaluations with agent-based modelling: an introduction

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a relatively new technique, which overcomes some of the limitations of other methods commonly used for economic evaluations. These limitations include linearity, homogeneity and stationarity. Agents in ABMs are autonomous entities, who interact with each other and with the environment. ABMs provide an inductive or 'bottom-up' approach, i.e. individual-level behaviours define system-level components. ABMs have a unique property to capture emergence phenomena that otherwise cannot be predicted by the combination of individual-level interactions. In this tutorial, we discuss the basic concepts and important features of ABMs. We present a case study of an application of a simple ABM to evaluate the cost effectiveness of screening of an infectious disease. We also provide our model, which was developed using an open-source software program, NetLogo. We discuss software, resources, challenges and future research opportunities of ABMs for economic evaluations.

Systematic review of model-based cervical screening evaluations

BACKGROUND

Optimising population-based cervical screening policies is becoming more complex due to the expanding range of screening technologies available and the interplay with vaccine-induced changes in epidemiology. Mathematical models are increasingly being applied to assess the impact of cervical cancer screening strategies.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed MEDLINE®, Embase, Web of Science®, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and The Cochrane Library databases in order to identify the mathematical models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer progression used to assess the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. Key model features and conclusions relevant to decision-making were extracted.

RESULTS

We found 153 articles meeting our eligibility criteria published up to May 2013. Most studies (72/153) evaluated the introduction of a new screening technology, with particular focus on the comparison of HPV DNA testing and cytology (n = 58). Twenty-eight in forty of these analyses supported HPV DNA primary screening implementation. A few studies analysed more recent technologies - rapid HPV DNA testing (n = 3), HPV DNA self-sampling (n = 4), and genotyping (n = 1) - and were also supportive of their introduction. However, no study was found on emerging molecular markers and their potential utility in future screening programmes. Most evaluations (113/153) were based on models simulating aggregate groups of women at risk of cervical cancer over time without accounting for HPV infection transmission. Calibration to country-specific outcome data is becoming more common, but has not yet become standard practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Models of cervical screening are increasingly used, and allow extrapolation of trial data to project the population-level health and economic impact of different screening policy. However, post-vaccination analyses have rarely incorporated transmission dynamics. Model calibration to country-specific data is increasingly common in recent studies.

Development of a quality framework for models of cervical screening and its application to evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in developed countries

BACKGROUND

HPV vaccination has now been introduced in most developed countries, but this has occurred in the context of established cervical cancer screening mechanisms which provide population-level protection against the most common HPV-related cancer. Therefore, estimating the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination to further reduce HPV-related disease depends in large part on the estimation of the effectiveness of the cervical screening 'background'. The aim of this study was to systematically review and assess methods for simulating cervical screening in decision analytic models used for evaluation of HPV vaccination.

METHODS

Existing quality frameworks for economic models were extended to develop a specific quality framework for models of cervical screening. This involved domains for model structure, parameterisation (data sources) and validation (consistency). A systematic review of economic evaluations of HPV vaccination was then conducted, and assessment of cervical screening model components was then performed via application of the new quality framework.

RESULTS

Generally, models took into account population-level cervical screening participation, but were inconsistent in their approach to modelling abnormal smear management, diagnostic evaluation and treatment of precancerous disease. There was also considerable variability in the accuracy of modelling clinical pathways and the scope of validation performed for screening-related outcomes, with focus directed towards cervical cancer targets. Only a few models comprehensively validated against observed pre-cancerous abnormalities.

CONCLUSION

Models of HPV vaccination in developed countries can be improved by further attention to the 'background' modelling of secondary protection via cervical screening. The quality framework developed for this review can be used to inform future HPV vaccination evaluations, including evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of male vaccination and next generation HPV vaccines, and to assess models used to evaluate new cervical screening technologies and recommendations.

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules of human papillomavirus vaccination: a transmission-dynamic modelling study

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests that two doses of HPV vaccines may be as protective as three doses in the short-term. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules of girls-only and girls & boys HPV vaccination programmes in Canada.

METHODS

We used HPV-ADVISE, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model of multi-type HPV infection and diseases (anogenital warts, and cancers of the cervix, vulva, vagina, anus, penis and oropharynx). We conducted the analysis from the health payer perspective, with a 70-year time horizon and 3% discount rate, and performed extensive sensitivity analyses, including duration of vaccine protection and vaccine cost.

FINDINGS

Assuming 80% coverage and a vaccine cost per dose of $85, two-dose girls-only vaccination (vs. no vaccination) produced cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)-gained varying between $7900-24,300. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of giving the third dose to girls (vs. two doses) was below $40,000/QALY-gained when: (i) three doses provide longer protection than two doses and (ii) two-dose protection was shorter than 30 years. Vaccinating boys (with two or three doses) was not cost-effective (vs. girls-only vaccination) under most scenarios investigated.

INTERPRETATION

Two-dose HPV vaccination is likely to be cost-effective if its duration of protection is at least 10 years. A third dose of HPV vaccine is unlikely to be cost-effective if two-dose duration of protection is longer than 30 years. Finally, two-dose girls & boys HPV vaccination is unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per dose for boys is substantially lower than the cost for girls.

Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study

BACKGROUND

Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in settings with the highest burden of HPV is not universal, partly because of the absence of quantitative estimates of country-specific effects on health and economic costs. We aimed to develop and validate a simple generic model of such effects that could be used and understood in a range of settings with little external support.

METHODS

We developed the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programmes or vaccine uptake. We validated PRIME against existing reports of HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness, projected outcomes for 179 countries (assuming full vaccination of 12-year-old girls), and outcomes for 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries (using vaccine uptake data from the GAVI Alliance). We assessed differences between countries in terms of cost-effectiveness and health effects.

FINDINGS

In validation, PRIME reproduced cost-effectiveness conclusions for 24 of 26 countries from 17 published studies, and for all 72 countries in a published study of GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccination of a cohort of 58 million 12-year-old girls in 179 countries prevented 690,000 cases of cervical cancer and 420,000 deaths during their lifetime (mostly in low-income or middle-income countries), at a net cost of US$4 billion. HPV vaccination was very cost effective (with every disability-adjusted life-year averted costing less than the gross domestic product per head) in 156 (87%) of 179 countries. Introduction of the vaccine in countries without national HPV vaccination at present would prevent substantially more cases of cervical cancer than in countries with such programmes, although the disparity has narrowed since 2012. If 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries adopt vaccination according to forecasts, then in 2070 GAVI Alliance-funded vaccination could prevent 200,000 cases of cervical cancer and 100,000 deaths in some of the highest-burden countries.

INTERPRETATION

Large between-country disparities exist for HPV vaccination, with countries with the most to gain yet to introduce national HPV vaccination. Support from the GAVI Alliance could help to reduce such disparities, but a substantial burden will remain even after presently projected vaccine introductions.

FUNDING

WHO.

Women have a preference for their male partner to be HPV vaccinated

BACKGROUND

Peer influence and social networking can change female adolescent and young adult behavior. Peer influence on preferences for male human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has not been documented. The primary aim of this study was to determine if women had preferences about male sexual partner HPV vaccination receipt.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A prospective survey of women 18-26 years of age was conducted at an urban university student health clinic. Education about the two HPV vaccines, cervical cancer and genital warts was provided. Women self-reported their demographic and medical history data, as well as their own preferences for HPV vaccine and their preferences for their male partner HPV vaccine using a 5 point Likert scale. 601 women, mean age of 21.5 years (SD 2.4), participated between 2011 and 2012. Nearly 95% of respondents were heterosexual; condoms and contraceptives were used in over half of the population. Regardless of the woman's vaccination status, women had significantly higher (strongly agree/agree) preferences for the male partner being vaccinated with HPV4 than not caring if he was vaccinated (63.6% vs. 13.1%, p<0.001). This preference was repeated for sexual risk factors and past reproductive medical history. Women who received HPV4 compared to those choosing HPV2 had a significantly lower proportion of preferences for not caring if the male partner was vaccinated (13% vs. 22%, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

Women preferred a HPV vaccinated male partner. Peer messaging might change the male HPV vaccination uptake.

Mathematical modelling and prediction in infectious disease epidemiology

We discuss to what extent disease transmission models provide reliable predictions. The concept of prediction is delineated as it is understood by modellers, and illustrated by some classic and recent examples. A precondition for a model to provide valid predictions is that the assumptions underlying it correspond to the reality, but such correspondence is always limited—all models are simplifications of reality. A central tenet of the modelling enterprise is what we may call the ‘robustness thesis’: a model whose assumptions approximately correspond to reality will make predictions that are approximately valid. To examine which of the predictions made by a model are trustworthy, it is essential to examine the outcomes of different models. Thus, if a highly simplified model makes a prediction, and if the same or a very similar prediction is made by a more elaborate model that includes some mechanisms or details that the first model did not, then we gain some confidence that the prediction is robust. An important benefit derived from mathematical modelling activity is that it demands transparency and accuracy regarding our assumptions, thus enabling us to test our understanding of the disease epidemiology by comparing model results and observed patterns. Models can also assist in decision-making by making projections regarding important issues such as intervention-induced changes in the spread of disease.

Exploiting biospectroscopy as a novel screening tool for cervical cancer: towards a framework to validate its accuracy in a routine clinical setting

Biospectroscopy is an emerging field that harnesses the platform of physical sciences with computational analysis in order to shed novel insights on biological questions. An area where this approach seems to have potential is in screening or diagnostic clinical settings, where there is an urgent need for new approaches to objectively interrogate large numbers of samples in an objective fashion with acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity. This review outlines the benefits of biospectroscopy in screening for precancer lesions of the cervix due to its ability to separate different grades of dysplasia. It evaluates the feasibility of introducing this technique into cervical screening programs on the basis of its ability to identify biomarkers of progression within derived spectra (‘biochemical‑cell fingerprints’).

Comparative cost-effectiveness of the quadrivalent and bivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: a transmission-dynamic modeling study

BACKGROUND

The quadrivalent and bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now licensed in several countries. We compared the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccines to provide evidence for policy decisions.

METHODS

We developed HPV-ADVISE, a multi-type individual-based transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and disease (anogenital warts, and cervical, anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers). We calibrated the model to sexual behavior and epidemiologic data from Canada, and estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost and costs ($CAN 2010) from the literature. Vaccine-type efficacy was based on a systematic literature review. The analysis was performed from the healthcare provider perspective, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Predictions are presented using the median [10th;90th percentiles] of simulations.

RESULTS

Under base-case assumptions (vaccinating 10-year-old girls, 80% coverage, $95/dose), using the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines is estimated to cost $15,528 [12,056;19,140] and $20,182 [15,531;25,240] per QALY-gained, respectively. At equal price, the quadrivalent vaccine is more cost-effective than bivalent under all scenarios investigated, except when assuming longer duration of protection for the bivalent and minimal anogenital warts burden. Under base-case assumptions, the maximum additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to remain more cost-effective than the bivalent is $32 [17;46] (using a $40,000/QALY-gained threshold). Results were most sensitive to discounting, time-horizon, differences in durations of protection and anogenital warts burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating pre-adolescent girls against HPV is predicted to be highly cost-effective. If equally priced, the quadrivalent is the most economically desirable vaccine. However, ultimately, the most cost-effective HPV vaccine will be determined by their relative price.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in low and middle income countries: a systematic review

The World Health Organization recommends establishing that human papillomavirus vaccination is cost-effective before vaccine introduction. We searched Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane Library to 1 April 2012 for economic evaluations of human papillomavirus vaccination in low and middle income countries. We found 25 articles, but almost all low income countries and many middle income countries lacked country-specific studies. Methods, assumptions and consequently results varied widely, even for studies conducted for the same country. Despite the heterogeneity, most studies conclude that vaccination is likely to be cost-effective and possibly even cost saving, particularly in settings without organized cervical screening programmes. However, study uncertainty could be reduced by clarity about vaccine prices and vaccine delivery costs. The review supports extending vaccination to low income settings where vaccine prices are competitive, donor funding is available, cervical cancer burden is high and screening options are limited.

Primary prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccination programs: future perspective on global impact

Of the 40 types of human papillomavirus that can infect the mucosal epithelium, four types can now be prevented using prophylactic vaccination. Two of these types (high-risk types 16 and 18) cause 70% of cervical cancers, a proportion of other genital cancers and a subset of head and neck cancers. The low-risk types 6 and 11 cause 90% of genital warts and the disease recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. Thus, if primary HPV vaccination programs can be implemented effectively, the potential for a reduction in global disease burden is great. This article considers the current issues and challenges in delivering primary HPV vaccination programs effectively and the likely impact of the vaccines in both the near and more distant future.

Vaccinating Girls and Boys with Different Human Papillomavirus Vaccines: Can It Optimise Population-Level Effectiveness?

BACKGROUND

Decision-makers may consider vaccinating girls and boys with different HPV vaccines to benefit from their respective strengths; the quadrivalent (HPV4) prevents anogenital warts (AGW) whilst the bivalent (HPV2) may confer greater cross-protection. We compared, to a girls-only vaccination program with HPV4, the impact of vaccinating: 1) both genders with HPV4, and 2) boys with HPV4 and girls with HPV2.

METHODS

We used an individual-based transmission-dynamic model of heterosexual HPV infection and diseases. Our base-case scenario assumed lifelong efficacy of 100% against vaccine types, and 46,29,8,18,6% and 77,43,79,8,0% efficacy against HPV-31,-33,-45,-52,-58 for HPV4 and HPV2, respectively.

RESULTS

Assuming 70% vaccination coverage and lifelong cross-protection, vaccinating boys has little additional benefit on AGW prevention, irrespective of the vaccine used for girls. Furthermore, using HPV4 for boys and HPV2 for girls produces greater incremental reductions in SCC incidence than using HPV4 for both genders (12 vs 7 percentage points). At 50% vaccination coverage, vaccinating boys produces incremental reductions in AGW of 17 percentage points if both genders are vaccinated with HPV4, but increases female incidence by 16 percentage points if girls are switched to HPV2 (heterosexual male incidence is incrementally reduced by 24 percentage points in both scenarios). Higher incremental reductions in SCC incidence are predicted when vaccinating boys with HPV4 and girls with HPV2 versus vaccinating both genders with HPV4 (16 vs 12 percentage points). Results are sensitive to vaccination coverage and the relative duration of protection of the vaccines.

CONCLUSION

Vaccinating girls with HPV2 and boys with HPV4 can optimize SCC prevention if HPV2 has higher/longer cross-protection, but can increase AGW incidence if vaccination coverage is low among boys.

Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts

Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

Potential impact of a nine-valent vaccine in human papillomavirus related cervical disease

Background

Information on human papillomavirus (HPV) type distribution is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of current and future HPV vaccines. We estimated the relative contribution (RC) to invasive cervical cancer (ICC) and precancerous cervical lesions of the nine HPV types (HPV 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) included in an HPV vaccine currently under development.

Methods

Estimations on ICC were based on an international study of 8,977 HPV positive cases and estimations on precancerous cervical lesions were extracted from a published meta-analysis including 115,789 HPV positive women. Globocan 2008 and 2010 World Population Prospects were used to estimate current and future projections of new ICC cases.

Results

RC of the 9 HPV types in ICC was 89.4%, with 18.5% of cases positive for HPV 31/33/45/52/58. Regional variations were observed. RCs varied by histology, ranging between 89.1% in squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) and 95.5% in adenocarcinomas (ADC). HPV 16/18/45 were detected in 94.2% of ADC. RC of the 9 types altogether decreased with age (trend test p < 0.0001), driven by the decrease in older ages of HPV 16/18/45. In contrast, the RC of HPV 31/33/52/58 increased with age. Due to population growth alone, projected estimates of ICC cases attributable to the 9 types are expected to rise from 493,770 new cases in 2012 to 560,887 new cases in 2025.

The RCs of individual high risk HPV types varied by cytological and histological grades of HPV-positive precancerous cervical lesions, and there was an under representation of HPV 18 and 45 compared to ICC.

Conclusions

The addition of HPV 31/33/45/52/58 to HPV types included in current vaccines could prevent almost 90% of ICC cases worldwide. If the nine-valent vaccine achieves the same degree of efficacy than previous vaccines, world incidence rates could be substantially reduced.

Modeling preventative strategies against human papillomavirus-related disease in developed countries

Over the last 5 years, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in pre-adolescent females has been introduced in most developed countries, supported by modeled evaluations that have almost universally found vaccination of pre-adolescent females to be cost-effective. Studies to date suggest that vaccination of pre-adolescent males may also be cost-effective at a cost per vaccinated individual of ~US$400-500 if vaccination coverage in females cannot be increased above ~50%; but if it is possible, increasing coverage in females appears to be a better return on investment. Comparative evaluation of the quadrivalent (HPV16,18,6,11) and bivalent (HPV16,18) vaccines centers around the potential trade-off between protection against anogenital warts and vaccine-specific levels of cross-protection against infections not targeted by the vaccines. Future evaluations will also need to consider the cost-effectiveness of a next generation nonavalent vaccine designed to protect against ~90% of cervical cancers. The timing of the effect of vaccination on cervical screening programs will be country-specific and will depend on vaccination catch-up age range and coverage and the age at which screening starts. Initial evaluations suggest that if screening remains unchanged, it will be less cost-effective in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated women but, in the context of current vaccines, will remain an important prevention method. Comprehensive evaluation of new approaches to screening will need to consider the population-level effects of vaccination over time. New screening strategies of particular interest include delaying the start age of screening, increasing the screening interval and switching to primary HPV screening. Future evaluations of screening will also need to focus on the effects of disparities in screening and vaccination uptake, the potential effects of vaccination on screening participation, and the effects of imperfect compliance with screening recommendations. This article forms part of a special supplement entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases" Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

Potential benefits of second-generation human papillomavirus vaccines

Background

Current prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two oncogenic types (16 and 18) that contribute to 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Our objective was to quantify the range of additional benefits conferred by second-generation HPV prophylactic vaccines that are expected to expand protection to five additional oncogenic types (31, 33, 45, 52 and 58).

Methods

A microsimulation model of HPV and cervical cancer calibrated to epidemiological data from two countries (Kenya and Uganda) was used to estimate reductions in lifetime risk of cervical cancer from the second-generation HPV vaccines. We explored the independent and joint impact of uncertain factors (i.e., distribution of HPV types, co-infection with multiple HPV types, and unidentifiable HPV types in cancer) and vaccine properties (i.e., cross-protection against non-targeted HPV types), compared against currently-available vaccines.

Results

Assuming complete uptake of the second-generation vaccine, reductions in lifetime cancer risk were 86.3% in Kenya and 91.8% in Uganda, representing an absolute increase in cervical cancer reduction of 26.1% in Kenya and 17.9% in Uganda, compared with complete uptake of current vaccines. The range of added benefits was 19.6% to 29.1% in Kenya and 14.0% to 19.5% in Uganda, depending on assumptions of cancers attributable to multiple HPV infections and unidentifiable HPV types. These effects were blunted in both countries when assuming vaccine cross-protection with both the current and second-generation vaccines.

Conclusion

Second-generation HPV vaccines that protect against additional oncogenic HPV types have the potential to improve cervical cancer prevention. Co-infection with multiple HPV infections and unidentifiable HPV types can influence vaccine effectiveness, but the magnitude of effect may be moderated by vaccine cross-protective effects. These benefits must be weighed against the cost of the vaccines in future analyses.

Cervical cancer screening: women's knowledge, attitudes, and practices in the region of Monastir (Tunisia)

BACKGROUND

In Tunisia, cervical cancer is considered the second leading cancer in women and causes high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to investigate women's knowledge, attitudes, and practices of cervical cancer screening in the region of Monastir (Tunisia).

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study exploring the cervical cancer screening knowledge, attitudes, and practices of women in the region of Monastir. The study was conducted in health centers in this region from 1st March to 30th June 2009. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire containing 15 items on demographic status, knowledge of risk factors and screening methods, and attitudes toward the relevance and effectiveness of cervical cancer screening.

RESULTS

A total of 900 women agreed to take part in the study. Their mean age was 41.6±12.4 years and 64% did not exceed the primary level of education. According to the constructed scores, 22.8% of the participants had good knowledge of cervical cancer risk factors and 38.2% had good knowledge of screening methods. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that women aged 45 and older, married, with good knowledge of risk factors and screening methods were more likely to undergo cervical cancer screening (P-value<0.01).

CONCLUSION

This study provides useful information that could be utilized by both researchers and those involved in public health programs. The results show the need for educational programs to enhance women's adherence to cervical cancer screening programs in Tunisia.

Cost-effectiveness of adding vaccination with the AS04-adjuvanted human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine to cervical cancer screening in Hungary

BACKGROUND

The cervical cancer screening program implemented in Hungary to date has not been successful. Along with screening, vaccination is an effective intervention to prevent cervical cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of adding vaccination with the human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine to the current cervical cancer screening program in Hungary.

METHODS

We developed a cohort simulation state-transition Markov model to model the life course of 12-year-old girls. Eighty percent participation in the HPV vaccination program at 12 years of age was assumed. Transitional probabilities were estimated using data from the literature. Local data were used regarding screening participation rates, and the costs were estimated in US $. We applied the purchasing power parity exchange rate of 129 HUF/$ to the cost data. Only direct health care costs were considered. We used a 3.7% discount rate for both the cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The time horizon was 88 years.

RESULTS

Inclusion of HPV vaccination at age 12 in the cervical cancer prevention program was predicted to be cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of adding HPV vaccination to the current national cancer screening program was estimated to be 27 588 $/QALY. The results were sensitive to the price of the vaccine, the discount rate, the screening participation rate and whether herd immunity was taken into account.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modeling analysis showed that the vaccination of 12-year-old adolescent girls against cervical cancer with the AS04-adjuvanted human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine would be a cost-effective strategy to prevent cervical cancer in Hungary.

Population-level impact of the bivalent, quadrivalent, and nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccines: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now licensed in several countries. Furthermore, clinical trials examining the efficacy of a nonavalent vaccine are underway. We aimed to compare the potential population-level effectiveness of the bivalent, quadrivalent, and candidate nonavalent HPV vaccines.

METHODS

We developed an individual-based, transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and disease in a population stratified by age, gender, sexual activity, and screening behavior. The model was calibrated to highly stratified sexual behavior, HPV epidemiology, and cervical screening data from Canada.

RESULTS

Under base case assumptions, vaccinating 12-year-old girls (70% coverage) with the bivalent (quadrivalent) vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative incidence of anogenital warts (AGWs) by 0.0% (72.1%), diagnosed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions 2 and 3 (CIN2 and -3) by 51.0% (46.1%), and cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) by 31.9% (30.5%), over 70 years. Changing from a bivalent (quadrivalent) to a nonavalent vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative number of AGW episodes by an additional 66.7% (0.0%), CIN2 and -3 episodes by an additional 9.3% (12.5%), and SCC cases by an additional 4.8% (6.6%) over 70 years. Differences in predicted population-level effectiveness between the vaccines were most sensitive to duration of protection and the time horizon of analysis. The vaccines produced similar effectiveness at preventing noncervical HPV-related cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The bivalent vaccine is expected to be slightly more effective at preventing CIN2 and -3 and SCC in the longer term, whereas the quadrivalent vaccine is expected to substantially reduce AGW cases shortly after the start of vaccination programs. Switching to a nonavalent vaccine has the potential to further reduce precancerous lesions and cervical cancer.

Awareness, perception and factors affecting utilization of cervical cancer screening services among women in Ibadan, Nigeria: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Over the years awareness and uptake of cervical cancer screening services has remained poor in developing countries. Problems associated with cervical cancer incidence include late reporting, ignorance and cultural issues relating to cervical cancer screening. This study sought to explore the awareness, perception and utilization of cervical cancer screening among women in Ibadan as well as factors that influence utilization.

METHOD

This is a qualitative study that utilized Eight Focus Group Discussions to collect information from women in selected health facilities in Ibadan, South West, Nigeria. The 82 participants were purposely recruited from women attending Antenatal clinics in 4 secondary and 4 primary health care facilities after approval was received from the Institutional Review Board in charge of the facilities. The focus group discussions were tape recorded and transcribed verbatim. The transcripts were analyzed into themes.

FINDINGS

The study provided qualitative information on the awareness, perception of the utilization of cervical cancer screening services among women in Ibadan. Participants were mainly married women (92.7%), mean age =27.6, SD =4.5, mainly traders (39%) and from Yoruba ethnic backgrounds (87.8%) and had secondary education (39%). The respondents reported not being aware of cervical cancer and were not utilizing the services. Though they did not know what cervical cancer screening entailed or the screening methods, they still believed that it is important since like for other diseases will help in early detection and treatment. The participants were eager to get more information from nurses on cervical cancer about cervical cancer screening. The major factors identified by the women that influence screening utilization were ignorance, Illiteracy, belief in not being at risk, having many contending issues, nonchalant attitude to their health, financial constraint and fear of having a positive result.

CONCLUSION

There is an urgent need for more enlightenment about cervical cancer especially by health workers. Also, cervical cancer services should be made available at very affordable cost so that women can easily access the services in order to reduce incidence of invasive cancer.

A revision of sexual mixing matrices in models of sexually transmitted infection

Two sexual mixing matrices previously used in models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are intended to calculate the probability of sexual interaction between age groups and sexual behaviour subgroups. When these matrices are used to specify multiple criteria for how people select sexual partners (such as age group and sexual behaviour class), their conditional probability structure means that they have in practice been prone to misuse. We constructed revised mixing matrices that incorporate a corrected conditional probability structure and then used one of them to examine the effect of this revision on population modelling of STIs. Using a dynamic model of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission as an example, we examined changes to estimates of HPV prevalence and the relative reduction in age-standardised HPV incidence after the commencement of publicly funded HPV vaccination in Australia. When all other model specifications were left unchanged, the revised mixing matrix initially led to estimates of age-specific oncogenic HPV prevalence that were up to 11% higher than our previous models at certain ages. After re-calibrating the model by modifying unobservable parameters characterising HPV natural history, the revised mixing matrix yielded similar estimates to our previous models, predicting that vaccination would lead to relative HPV incidence reductions of 43% and 85% by 2010 and 2050, respectively, compared with 43% and 86% using the unrevised mixing matrix formulation. Our revised mixing matrix offers a rigorous alternative to commonly used mixing matrices, which can be used to reliably and explicitly accommodate conditional probabilities, with appropriate re-calibration of unobservable model parameters.