Prognosis determination in heart failure

Predicting the risk of mortality and rehospitalization in heart failure patients: A retrospective cohort study by machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a global problem, affecting more than 26 million people worldwide. This study evaluated the performance of 10 machine learning (ML) algorithms and chose the best algorithm to predict mortality and readmission of HF patients by using The Fasa Registry on Systolic HF (FaRSH) database.

HYPOTHESIS

ML algorithms may better identify patients at increased risk of HF readmission or death with demographic and clinical data.

METHODS

Through comprehensive evaluation, the best-performing model was used for prediction. Finally, all the trained models were applied to the test data, which included 20% of the total data. For the final evaluation and comparison of the models, five metrics were used: accuracy, F1-score, sensitivity, specificity and Area Under Curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Ten ML algorithms were evaluated. The CatBoost (CAT) algorithm uses a series of decision tree models to create a nonlinear model, and this CAT algorithm performed the best of the 10 models studied. According to the three final outcomes from this study, which involved 2488 participants, 366 (14.7%) of the patients were readmitted to the hospital, 97 (3.9%) of the patients died within 1 month of the follow-up, and 342 (13.7%) of the patients died within 1 year of the follow-up. The most significant variables to predict the events were length of stay in the hospital, hemoglobin level, and family history of MI.

CONCLUSIONS

The ML-based risk stratification tool was able to assess the risk of 5-year all-cause mortality and readmission in patients with HF. ML could provide an explicit explanation of individualized risk prediction and give physicians an intuitive understanding of the influence of critical features in the model.

Clinical characteristics and long-term prognosis of ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy

Objectives

The different etiology of HF has different prognostic risk factors. Prognosis assessment of ICM and NICM has important clinical value. This study is aimed to explore the predicting factors for ICM and NICM.

Methods

1082 HFrEF patients were retrospectively enrolled from Jan. 01, 2016 to Dec. 31, 2017. On Jan. 31, 2019, 873 patients were enrolled for analysis excluding incomplete, unfollowed, and unexplained data. The patients were divided into ischemic and non-ischemic group. The differences in clinical characteristics and long-term prognosis between the two groups were analyzed, and multivariate Cox analysis was used to predict the respective all-cause mortality, SCD and rehospitalization of CHF.

Results

873 patients aged 64(53,73) were divided into two groups: ICM (403, 46.16%) and NICM. At the end, 203 died (111 in ICM, 54.68%), of whom 87 had SCD (53 in ICM, 60.92%) and 269 had rehospitalization for HF(134 in ICM, 49.81%). Independent risk factors affecting all-cause mortality in ICM: DM, previous hospitalization of HF, age, eGFR, LVEF; for SCD: PVB, eGFR, Hb, revascularization; for readmission of HF: low T3 syndrome, PVB, DM, previous hospitalization of HF, eGFR. Otherwise; factors affecting all-cause mortality in NICM: NYHA III-IV, paroxysmal AF/AFL, previous hospitalization of HF, β-blocker; for SCD: low T3 syndrome, PVB, nitrates, sodium, β-blocker; for rehospitalization of HF: paroxysmal AF/AFL, previous admission of HF, LVEF.

Conclusions

Both all-cause mortality and SCD in ICM is higher than that in NICM. Different etiologies of CHF have different risk factors affecting the prognosis.

Evaluation of mortality and readmissions following hospitalization with heart failure

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of patient/clinical characteristics with mortality and readmission following a heart failure (HF)-related hospitalization.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Claims data, linked to laboratory, race/ethnicity, and mortality data, from a large US health plan were utilized to identify individuals with ≥1 inpatient claim with a diagnosis code for HF (1 January 2008-30 September 2012). Study variables were analyzed using descriptive and multivariable approaches to identify patient/clinical characteristics associated with post-discharge outcomes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes included post-discharge mortality and readmission.

RESULTS

A total of 126,214 individuals were identified with a HF-related hospitalization; 19.1% with data to calculate chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage. For the overall sample, mortality probability was 4.9% and 13.4% at 1 and 6 months post-discharge, respectively (4.5% and 12.4% for subset with calculated CKD stage), while readmission (all-cause) probability was 14.8% and 39.6% at 1 and 6 months post-discharge, respectively (18.4% and 44.5% for subset with calculated CKD stage). Within the subset with calculated CKD stage, mortality and readmission probabilities differed by CKD stage (p < 0.001), with decreased renal function corresponding with increased risk of mortality and readmission. After multivariable adjustment, increasing age was associated with increased risk of mortality, while advancing CKD stage, various index hospitalization variables (i.e., pre-admission emergency room visit, intensive care unit during hospitalization), and baseline all-cause hospitalization were associated with both increased risk of mortality and all-cause 1 month readmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Calculated CKD, various index hospitalization variables, and baseline all-cause hospitalization were associated with increased risk of mortality and all-cause 1 month readmission among patients hospitalized with HF. Risk of post-discharge readmission and mortality increased with worse renal function, suggesting that improved management of this subset may reduce the burden and cost of this disease. Key study limitations include those related to retrospective claims-based studies and that renal function data were available for a subset of study patients.

The influence of illness severity on health satisfaction in patients with cardiovascular disease: the mediating role of illness perception and self-efficacy beliefs

The importance of psychological factors in improving conditions of cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients is stressed by the guidelines for their prevention and rehabilitation, but little is known about the impact of illness severity on patients' well-being, and on the psychosocial variables that may mediate this association. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of illness perception and self-efficacy beliefs on the relationship between illness severity and health satisfaction in 75 CVD patients undergoing rehabilitation (80% men; mean age = 65.44) at the St. Luca Hospital, Istituto Auxologico Italiano, Milan, Italy. Illness severity was measured in terms of left ventricular ejection fraction; psychological factors were assessed at the beginning and end of rehabilitation. Results from path analyses showed that the relationships among CVD severity and health satisfaction were mediated by illness perception and self-efficacy beliefs. Findings underscored the importance of considering illness representations and self-efficacy beliefs to improve well-being in CVD patients.

Cost Effectiveness of Cardioprotective Strategies in Patients with Aggressive Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma

OBJECTIVE

The cardiotoxicity of anthracyclines remains a key problem in patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). With regard to the actual long-term prognosis of aggressive NHL, the development of cardioprotective strategies is mandatory for these patients. A cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out to determine the potential economic profile of dexrazoxane or liposome-encapsulated doxorubicin in patients with aggressive NHL treated with a CHOP regimen (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone) as first-line therapy.

METHODS

A decision-analysis model described clinical events and economic consequences for theoretical patients who were to receive eight consecutive cycles of a CHOP regimen containing 50 mg/m(2) of doxorubicin as first-line chemotherapy. The timeframe of the model was the patient's lifetime. The probabilities were related to the cumulative dose of doxorubicin and age. The study was carried out from the perspective of the French healthcare system. Patients entered the model at 'choose' node: no cardioprotection versus cardioprotection with dexrazoxane or liposome-encapsulated doxorubicin. The model was based on a retrospective epidemiological study and on published data. The clinical end-point was life expectancy. Direct medical costs related to the cardioprotection and the treatment of congestive heart failure were considered. Monetary values for French prices in the year 2002 were used. Several univariate sensitivity analyses were carried out with varying clinical and economic parameters.

RESULTS

Per 100 patients, the two cardioprotective strategies provided similar benefits that were estimated as 24.5 and 13.4 life-years in 60- and 40-year-old patients, respectively. The cost per life-year saved with dexrazoxane was estimated as euro6931 and euro15 599 in 60- and 40-year-old patients, respectively, and euro22 940 and euro44 982, respectively, with liposome-encapsulated doxorubicin. Several sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the model.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest the potential clinical and economic usefulness of cardioprotective therapies in patients with aggressive NHL. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

The diversity of heart failure in a hospitalized population: the role of age

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of heart failure (HF) among hospitalized elderly patients is high and steadily growing. However, because most studies have focused mostly on young patients, little is known about the clinical characteristics, echocardiographic measures, prognostic factors, and outcome of hospitalized elderly HF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We identified all HF patients aged ≥50 years who had undergone ≥1 echocardiography study and had been hospitalized during January 2000 to December 2009. A comparative analysis was performed between 3,897 "young" patients (aged 50-75 years) and 5,438 "elderly" patients (aged >75 years), followed for a mean 2.8 ± 2.6 years. Elderly HF patients were more often female (50% vs 35%; P < .0001) and had a higher prevalence of HF with preserved ejection fraction (64.8% vs 53%; P < .0001), more significant valvular disease (35.7% vs 32.5%; P < .0001), and lower rates of ischemic heart disease (65.5% vs 70.9%; P < .0001) and diabetes (34.4% vs 53.9%; P < .0001). Thirty-day and 1-year mortality rates were significantly higher among the elderly population (12.2% vs 6.9% [P < .0001] and 34.3% vs 21.2% [P < .0001], respectively). Prognostic markers differed significantly between age groups. Young-specific predictors were chronic renal failure, diastolic dysfunction, malignancy, and tricuspid regurgitation, whereas elderly-specific predictors were HF with reduced ejection fraction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary hypertension, and mitral regurgitation.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalized elderly, compared with young, HF patients differed in prevalence of cardiac and noncardiac comorbid conditions, echocardiographic parameters, and predictors of short- and intermediate-term mortality. Identifying unique features in the elderly population may render age-tailored therapeutics.

The impact of a nurse-led care programme on events and physical and psychosocial parameters in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: a randomized clinical trial in primary care in Russia

BACKGROUND

Disease management programmes (DMPs) improve quality of care for patients with heart failure (HF). However, only a limited number of trials have studied the efficacy of such programmes for patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF).

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of a structured, nurse-led patient education programme and care plan in general practice on outcome parameters and events in patients with HFPEF.

METHODS

Single blinded randomized clinical trial with an intervention over six months and a follow-up during 12 additional months. In the control group, the patients (n = 41) were managed according to Russian national guidelines. Patients in the intervention group (n = 44) received education on individual lifestyle changes and modifications of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, home-based exercise training and weekly nurse consultations in addition to usual care.

RESULTS

Six months after their inclusion, patients in the intervention group significantly improved body mass index, waist circumference, six-min walk test distance, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, quality of life and level of anxiety. After 18 months, there were 11 deaths (25%) or hospitalizations in the intervention group and 12 (29%) in the control group (P = 0.134). Cardiovascular mortality and readmission rate were not reduced significantly after six months of follow-up: the hazard ratio was 0.47 (95% CI: 0.17-1.28; P = 0.197). After 18 months, this was 0.85 (0.42-1.73; P = 0.658).

CONCLUSION

This primary care based DMP for patients with HFPEF improved the patients' emotional status and quality of life, positively influenced body weight, functional capacity and lipid profile, and attenuated heart remodelling.

Factors Associated With Outcome in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Background—

The determinants of prognosis in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HF-PEF) are poorly documented.

Methods and Results—

We evaluated data from 4128 patients in the I-PRESERVE trial (Irbesartan in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction Study). Multivariable Cox regression models were developed using 58 baseline demographic, clinical, and biological variables to model the primary outcome of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization (1505 events), all-cause mortality (881 events), and HF death or hospitalization (716 events). Log N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide, age, diabetes mellitus, and previous hospitalization for HF were the most powerful factors associated with the primary outcome and with the HF composite. For all-cause mortality, log N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide, age, diabetes mellitus, and left ventricular EF were the strongest independent factors. Other independent factors associated with poor outcome included quality of life, a history of chronic obstructive lung disease, log neutrophil count, heart rate, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The models accurately stratified the actual 3-year rate of outcomes from 8.1% to 59.9% (primary outcome) 2.7% to 36.5% (all-cause mortality), and 2.1% to 38.9% (HF composite) for the lowest to highest septiles of predicted risks.

Conclusions—

In a large sample of elderly patients with HF and preserved EF enrolled in I-Preserve, simple clinical, demographic, and biological variables were associated with outcome and identified subgroups at very high and very low risk of events.

Clinical Trial Registration—

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00095238.

Heart rate turbulence for prediction of heart transplantation and mortality in chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown conflicting results about the value of heart rate turbulence (HRT) for risk stratification of patients (pts) with chronic heart failure (CHF). We prospectively evaluated the relation between HRT and progression toward end-stage heart failure or all-cause mortality in patients with CHF.

METHODS

HRT was assessed from 24-hour Holter recordings in 110 pts with CHF (54 in NYHA class II, 56 in class III-IV; left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 30%+/- 10%) on optimal pharmacotherapy and quantified as turbulence onset (TO,%), turbulence slope (TS, ms/RR interval), and turbulence timing (beginning of RR sequence for calculation of TS, TT). TO > or = 0%, TS < or = 2.5 ms/RR, and TT >10 were considered abnormal. End point was development of end-stage CHF requiring heart transplantation (OHT) or all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

During a follow-up of 5.8 +/- 1.3 years, 24 pts died and 10 required OHT. TO, TS, TT, and both (TO and TS) were abnormal in 35%, 50%, 30%, and 25% of all patients, respectively. Patients with at least one relatively preserved HRT parameter (TO, TS, or TT) (n = 98) had 5-year event-free rate of 83% compared to 33% of those in whom all three parameters were abnormal (n = 12). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, the most powerful predictor of end point events was heart rate variability (SDNN < 70 ms, hazard ratio (HR) 9.41, P < 0.001), followed by LVEF < or = 35% (HR 6.23), TT > or = 10 (HR 3.14), and TO > or = 0 (HR 2.54, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In patients with CHF on optimal pharmacotherapy, HRT can help to predict those at risk for progression toward OHT or death of all causes.

Evolving applications for patient-centered health status measures

Patient-centered health status measures-assessments of patients' symptoms, function, and quality of life-have matured substantially over the past 2 decades. Currently, valid, reliable, and sensitive disease-specific measures are available for quantifying the health status of patients with cardiovascular disease. This article briefly reviews the concept of health status measures, with a focus on their interpretation. It then discusses both the rationale and potential applications of health status measures in clinical care. Health status measures are not surrogate measures of outcome but rather highly meaningful outcomes of care. As such, they have important emerging roles as outcomes in clinical trials, as tools for monitoring patients in routine clinical care, as a mechanism for operationalizing and evaluating disease management programs, and as tools for quality assessment/improvement. Over time, it is expected that health status measures will also have an increasingly important role in patient-centered medical decision making. By becoming aware of the evolving roles of health status measures, clinicians can help to accelerate the realization of the Institute of Medicine's vision for a more transparent, evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare system.

Health-related quality of life after myocardial infarction is associated with level of left ventricular ejection fraction

Background

The objective was to explore the relationship between left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) assessed during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (MI) and later health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

Methods

We used multivariable linear regression to assess the relationship between LVEF and HRQoL in 256 MI patients who responded to the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ), the EQ-5D Index, and the EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-VAS) 2.5 years after the index MI.

Results

167 patients had normal LVEF (>50%), 56 intermediate (40%–50%), and 33 reduced (<40%). The mean (SD) KCCQ clinical summary scores were 85 (18), 75 (22), and 68 (21) (p <0.001) in the three groups, respectively. The corresponding EQ-5D Index scores were 0.83 (0.18), 0.72 (0.27), and 0.76 (0.14) (p = 0.005) and EQ-VAS scores were 72 (18), 65 (21), and 57 (20) (p = 0.001). In multivariable linear regression analysis age ≥ 70 years, known chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), subsequent MI, intermediate LVEF, and reduced LVEF were independent determinants for reduced KCCQ clinical summary score. Female sex, medication for angina pectoris at discharge, and intermediate LVEF were independent determinants for reduced EQ-5D Index score. Age ≥ 70 years, COPD, and reduced LVEF were associated with reduced EQ-VAS score.

Conclusion

LVEF measured during hospitalization for MI was a determinant for HRQoL 2.5 years later.

Multidisciplinary management of elderly patients with chronic heart failure: five year outcome measures in death and survivor groups

BACKGROUND

The utility of multidisciplinary chronic disease evaluation measures, especially health related quality of life (HRQL), for long long-term prognostic use in elderly patients with heart failure is uncertain.

AIM

To report on clinical, functional and HRQL values of deceased and surviving patients of a 6-month RCT of Cardiac Rehabilitation in addition to specialist nurse outpatient clinic at 5 years.

METHODS

The original measures (walk test, Borg RPE, MLHF, EuroQol score and vas, biochemistry) were repeated for patients in a satisfactory condition.

RESULTS

Five year survival was characterised by significantly better baseline values for LV dysfunction and NYHA class and 6-month values for MLHF, physical function and biochemistry measures. EuroQuol scores were worse than baseline for surviving patients at 5 years, in contrast to MLHF scores. The walk test gave the highest 5-year relative mortality risk, whereas the MLHF gave similar values to the Borg and uric acid measures. Deaths were more evident in normal weight older patients than in younger obese patients.

CONCLUSION

Changes in patient measures were evident over 5 years and most differentiated between survivor and deceased groups. In comparison to the use of the MLHF and EuroQuol-vas, the EuroQuol score was limited by impairments of the ageing process.

Risk stratification assessed by combined lung and heart iodine-123 metaiodobenzylguanidine uptake in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy

Iodine-123 metaiodobenzylguanidine (123I-MIBG) has been used to assess myocardial sympathetic nervous activity and severity of heart failure. (123)I-MIBG is also used as a potential marker of pulmonary endothelial cell function and may be related to pulmonary hypertension. Thus, we hypothesized that combined assessment of lung and heart 123I-MIBG kinetics predicts future clinical outcome more accurately than myocardial evaluation alone in patients with chronic heart failure. To test this hypothesis, we examined 123I-MIBG scintigrams in 62 consecutive patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Anterior planar images were obtained 15 minutes and 3 hours after 123I-MIBG injection. Cardiac and pulmonary 123I-MIBG activities were quantified as heart-to-mediastinum activity ratio and lung-to-mediastinum activity ratio. We introduced lung-to-heart activity ratio as the new 123I-MIBG parameter including myocardial sympathetic nerve activity and pulmonary endothelial cell function. Delayed lung-to-heart ratio was correlated with pulmonary vascular resistance (r = 0.48, p <0.0001), disease duration (r = 0.49, p <0.0001), and number of heart failure episodes (r = 0.55, p <0.0001). During a mean follow-up of 25 months, 15 patients had a cardiac event. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves for prediction of the event was greatest in delayed lung-to-heart ratio (lung to heart 0.92, heart to mediastinum 0.83, lung to mediastinum 0.80). In multivariate analysis, the lung-to-heart ratio (hazard ratio 2.76/0.1 increase, p = 0.002) was selected as an independent predictor for a future cardiac event. In conclusion, the combined assessment of lung and heart 123I-MIBG uptake may help to predict future clinical outcome for patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy more accurately than myocardial evaluation alone.

Applying heart failure guidelines to adult congenital heart disease patients

There is a growing population of adult patients with congenital heart defects in the developed world. Most have been repaired, but few have been cured. Many have myocardial dysfunction. Most have exercise intolerance. Some have heart failure. As a group, they show neurohormonal activation similar to that seen in an adult heart failure population with acquired heart disease. Currently, the patients at greatest risk of heart failure are those without a systemic left ventricle, such as Mustard and Senning repairs of transposition of the great arteries (TGA), congenitally corrected TGA, and patients who have had a Fontan procedure. Exercise intolerance may predict hospitalization and death in such patients. For those patients with systemic left ventricles, it would seem reasonable to use the heart failure guidelines developed for patients with acquired heart disease. For those patients without a systemic left ventricle (e.g., a systemic right ventricle or single ventricle), there is currently no foundation for evidence-based therapy.

Prognostic markers in heart failure--congestion, neurohormones, and the cardiorenal syndrome

There are several markers of poor prognosis in heart failure (HF). The most established markers of poor prognosis in HF include neurohormonal (NH) imbalance, low ejection fraction (EF), ventricular arrhythmias, intraventricular conduction delays, low functional capacity, low SBP, and renal failure. The relative importance of these factors is unknown, as they have never been studied together. We present a 74-year-old female with nonischemic cardiomyopathy and an EF<20% who over 24 years since diagnosis, never developed clinical or hemodynamic congestion, was never hospitalized for HF, and never required a loop diuretic. She had all of the clinical indicators of poor prognosis in HF except for severe NH imbalance and renal failure, illustrating their importance in HF prognosis. While NH activation in HF is initially an adaptive mechanism, an imbalance of NH effectors causes congestion leading to a vicious cycle of congestion, renal dysfunction, and worsening of HF. The combination of NH activation and renal failure in HF is a vasomotor nephropathy known as the cardiorenal syndrome (CRS) and portends a poor prognosis. Pharmacological disruption of NH pathways early in HF may prevent CRS and, therefore, improve outcomes.

Beta1- and beta2-adrenergic receptor polymorphisms affect susceptibility to idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy

OBJECTIVE

Beta1- and beta2-adrenergic receptors (ARs) play a pivotal role in myocardial function. We investigated whether functionally relevant polymorphisms within the genes encoding for these receptors indicate susceptibility to idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).

METHODS

This case-control association study involved 189 patients with DCM and 378 gender- and age-matched control subjects. All of the subjects were characterised by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis in terms of Ser49Gly and Arg389Gly polymorphisms in the beta1-AR, and the 5' leader cistron Arg19Cys, Arg16Gly, Gln27Glu, and Thr164Ile polymorphisms in the beta2-AR. Genotype, allele and haplotype frequencies were analysed.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that the distribution of genotype and allele frequencies of the beta1-Ser49Gly, beta1-Arg389Gly and beta2-Arg16Gly polymorphisms was significantly different between the patients and controls, and the beta1-Gly49/beta1-Arg389 haplotype was significantly more represented in the patients. Multivariate analysis showed that only the beta1-Gly49 variant (odds ratio 1.91; 95% confidence interval 1.24-2.95; P = 0.003) and beta2-Gly16Gly genotype (odds ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval 1.10-2.26; P = 0.013) carriers were at significantly higher risk of developing DCM.

CONCLUSIONS

In our population from southern Italy, the Gly49 allele of the beta1-AR and the Gly16Gly genotype of the beta2-AR were significantly and independently associated with the DCM phenotype, thus suggesting their role in favouring susceptibility to the disease.

Management of acute decompensated heart failure

Acute decompensated heart failure is the most common cause for hospitalization among patients over 65 years of age. It may result from new onset of ventricular dysfunction or, more typically, exacerbation of chronic heart failure symptoms. In-hospital mortality remains high for both systolic and diastolic forms of the disease. Therapy is largely empirical as few randomized, controlled trials have focused on this population and consensus practice guidelines are just beginning to be formulated. Treatment should be focused upon correction of volume overload, identifying potential precipitating causes, and optimizing vasodilator and beta-adrenergic blocker therapy. The majority of patients (>90%) will improve without the use of positive inotropic agents, which should be reserved for patients with refractory hypotension, cardiogenic shock, end-organ dysfunction, or failure to respond to conventional oral and/or intravenous diuretics and vasodilators. The role of aldosterone antagonists, biventricular pacing, and novel pharmacological agents including vasopressin antagonists, endothelin blockers, and calcium-sensitizing agents is also reviewed.

The prognostic influence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients hospitalised for chronic heart failure

AIMS

To investigate the prevalence and the prognostic impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), in patients hospitalised with chronic heart failure (CHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In an observational study based on longitudinal information from administrative registers, 1020 patients aged >or=60 years, who were chronically treated for and hospitalised with CHF were identified and followed-up for major events up to 1 year. Median age was 80 years, half of the patients were female and 241 patients (23.6%) had concomitant COPD. There were no differences in the prevalence of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities between CHF patients with or without COPD. However, COPD patients were more often male (60.6% vs. 46.3%), more frequently treated with diuretics (95.9% vs. 91.5%) but less often exposed to beta-blockers (16.2% vs. 22.0%). Significantly higher adjusted in-hospital (HR 1.50 [95%CI 1.00-2.26]) and out-of-hospital (1.42 [1.09-1.86]) mortality rates were found in CHF patients with concomitant COPD. A higher occurrence of non-fatal AMI/stroke/rehospitalisation for CHF (1.26 [1.01-1.58]) as well as hospitalisation for CHF (1.35 [1.00-1.82]) was associated with COPD.

CONCLUSIONS

COPD is a frequent concomitant disease in patients with heart failure and it is an independent short-term prognostic indicator of mortality and cardiovascular comorbidity in patients who have been admitted to hospital for heart failure.

Heart transplantation: Assessment of heart failure mortality risk

Heart failure (HF) presents with a wide spectrum of disease severity and with a broad risk of associated morbidity and mortality. Identification of individuals at high risk for HF death is important for assessment of candidacy for heart transplantation and mechanical circulatory assistance and, more broadly, for guiding pharmaceutical, surgical, or palliative interventions. In this article, we review and compare several of the HF risk prediction tools currently available, highlighting their clinical utilities and potential shortcomings. Risk prediction tools must be carefully selected, recognizing that their accuracy is likely to be greatest when used in patients most similar to those from whom the tool was developed. As HF is a dynamic condition, serial risk assessment at regular intervals and as patient clinical status changes is warranted, although clinical evidence to support this practice is limited.

Effect of atrial fibrillation on plasma NT-proBNP in chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Brain natriuretic peptides are elevated in patients with systolic heart failure (HF) as well as in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and are strong predictors of death in HF patients. The aim of our study was to examine the levels of N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with HF and AF versus HF and sinus rhythm (SR) and if NT-proBNP has prognostic influence in patients with AF.

METHODS

We included 245 patients (72% men, 70 years) with HF referred to a HF clinic. NT-proBNP was measured at referral (baseline).

RESULTS

At baseline, 26% had AF and at follow-up 35% of the surviving patients. Patients with AF were older than patients with SR (p=0.009), but LVEF and NYHA distribution were similar. Median NT-proBNP levels were higher: 2528 vs. 899 pg/ml (p<0.001). NT-proBNP was significantly correlated with AF at baseline (p<0.001), age (p=0.001), P-creatinine (p<0.001) and reduced LVEF (p=0.002). NT-proBNP was an independent predictor of death in patients with AF, adjusted HR 4.0 (95% CI 1.6-10.2) (p=0.003).

CONCLUSION

NT-proBNP levels are higher in HF patients with AF than in HF patients with SR and has prognostic value despite the presence of AF.

Identifying heart failure patients at high risk for near-term cardiovascular events with serial health status assessments

BACKGROUND

Identification of heart failure outpatients at increased risk for clinical deterioration remains a critical challenge, with few tools currently available to assist clinicians. We tested whether serial health status assessments with the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) can identify patients at increased risk for mortality and hospitalization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We evaluated 1358 patients with heart failure after an acute myocardial infarction in the Eplerenone's Neurohormonal Efficacy and Survival Study, a multicenter randomized trial that included serial KCCQ assessments. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine whether changes in KCCQ scores during successive outpatient visits were independently associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization. Change in KCCQ (deltaKCCQ) was linearly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], for each 5-point decrease in deltaKCCQ, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19) and the combined outcome of cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization (HR for each 5-point decrease in deltaKCCQ, 1.12; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.18). In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, all-cause mortality among patients with deltaKCCQ of < or = -10, > -10 to < 10, and > 10 points was 26%, 16%, and 13%, respectively (P=0.008). After multivariable adjustment, the linear relationship between deltaKCCQ and both all-cause mortality and combined cardiovascular death and hospitalization persisted (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.18; and HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.17 for each 5-point decrease in deltaKCCQ, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In heart failure outpatients, serial health status assessments with the KCCQ can identify high-risk patients and may prove useful in directing the frequency of follow-up and the intensity of treatment.

Technology assessment for the anesthesiologist

The expense associated with modern heath care in the United States is very high, in excess of 15% of the GDP, continues to grow and has become a significant public policy issue. New technologies, defined as all drugs, devices, procedures, and organizational systems, are major contributors to rising health care costs. The use of health technology assessment tools can assist those in leadership positions in making rational decisions as to which new technologies to adopt. The classical approach is to use data from prospective, randomized, clinical trials that compare the outcomes of those treated with the new technology and the accepted therapy. Using this information and detailed economic data, the cost-effectiveness ratio can be determined. The accepted metrics are either dollars per life year saved or dollars per quality-adjusted life year saved. If the new medical intervention costs less than $50,000 to 80,000 dollars per life year saved, it is considered to be cost-effective and worthy of adoption. This kind of analysis is complex and expensive. In addition, the required information is not always available, limiting the applicability of this approach. Finally, the economic analysis often includes down-stream expense and benefit not relevant from a medical center perspective. Another approach is to focus the analysis to what impacts the medical center. This includes determining whether the technology has received the necessary approvals and has been shown to be effective, to improve health outcomes, to be at least as effective as standard therapy, and to be achievable outside the investigative setting. A fiscal analysis also must be done to determine what will it cost to acquire and operate the technology, what are the anticipated patient volumes and payer mix, and what will be the down-stream consequences to the medical center. If the process concludes that the technology works, makes a positive difference to patient care, and is fiscally and operationally acceptable, it should be purchased. After the technology has been installed and has been used, a postimplementation review should be done. This review should go over the same attributes that led to the decision to purchase. It should be determined whether the expected patient volumes, outcomes, income, and expenses were seen. If not, the technology assessment process should be refined to make better decisions in the future. Finally, if the results are at a substantial negative variance from what was anticipated, abandoning the technology should be considered. Anesthesiology either directly controls or indirectly influences a significant portion of medical technology in every medical center. Therefore, the processes that have been discussed in this article should be used by the department of anesthesiology to assure optimal patient care and the fiscal stability of the organization.

Palliative care and hospice in advanced heart failure

This paper provides an evidence-based review of the principles underlying palliative care for heart failure (HF), including its pathogenesis, staging, assessment, prognosis, and treatment. Approaches to advanced care planning, symptom management, hospice eligibility, home inotropic infusions, device management and improving the continuum of care in HF are discussed. The reader will be able to recognize advanced HF, use important elements of physical assessment, utilize Web-based prognostic and risk-stratification models, facilitate advance care planning, ensure optimal treatment, manage common symptoms and comorbid conditions, determine hospice eligibility, and consider issues related to withholding or withdrawal of inotropic infusions and devices used in HF refractory to standard treatment. The ultimate goal of palliative care for heart failure is to integrate knowledge of treatment advances and comfort measures and to provide them concurrently in a seamless continuum to patients with late-stage disease.

Comparative evaluation of B-type natriuretic peptide, mid-regional pro-A-type natriuretic peptide, mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin, and Copeptin to predict 1-year mortality in patients with acute destabilized heart failure

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the capability B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) as a prognostic marker in patients with acute destabilized heart failure in comparison with mid-regional pro-A-type natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), and the C-terminal part of the arginine vasopressin prohormone (Copeptin).

METHODS AND RESULTS

BNP, MR-proANP, MR-proADM, and Copeptin plasma concentrations were obtained in 137 patients with acute destabilized heart failure attending a tertiary care hospital. The end point was defined as all-cause mortality, and the study participants were followed for 365 days. Of the 137 patients enrolled, 41 died and 96 survived during follow-up. ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under curve for the prediction of 1-year mortality were similar for BNP (0.716; 95% CI 0.633-0.790), MR-proANP (0.725; 95% CI 0.642-0.798), MR-proADM (0.708; 95% CI 0.624-0.782), and Copeptin (0.688; 95% CI 0.603-0.764). Using tercile approaches, Kaplan-Meier curve analyses demonstrated that the predictive value of all four analytes for survival probability was comparable (log-rank test for trend, P < .001 for each). In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses, increased BNP, MR-proANP, MR-proADM, and Copeptin plasma concentrations were the strongest predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

BNP is considered an established prognostic marker for heart failure patients. The present study provides evidence that MR-proANP, MR-proADM, and Copeptin measurements might have similar predictive properties compared with BNP determinations for one-year all-cause mortality in acute destabilized heart failure.

EFFECT OF HIGH SALT INTAKE ON LOCAL RENIN-ANGIOTENSIN SYSTEM AND VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION FOLLOWING MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION IN RATS

1. This study was performed to evaluate the effect of chronic high salt intake on local cardiac and renal components of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) and its impact on cardiac remodelling and function after myocardial infarction (MI). 2. Rats submitted to coronary artery ligation to produce MI or sham operation (SO) were randomized to receive 1% NaCl solution or tap water as drinking water for 4 weeks. Plasma renin activity (PRA) and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) activity were quantified. Tissue angiotensin (Ang) II and ACE activity were determined by ELISA and a fluorimetric assay, respectively. Renal and cardiac AT(1) and AT(2) receptor protein levels were quantified by western blot. 3. Independent of the lower PRA levels, MI promoted a significant increase in the left ventricular/bodyweight ratio and impaired cardiac function. The cardiac RAS was activated after MI with a significant increase in ACE activity, AngII and AT(1) receptor levels. The RAS was slightly attenuated under high-salt conditions. 4. Interestingly, high salt intake increased the expression of the AT(2) receptor by approximately twofold in the kidney of MI rats compared with the SO control group. Because of its natriuretic effect, the AT(2) receptor may counterbalance the salt overload and prevent the additional impairment of cardiac function. 5. The present study indicates that 4 weeks after MI, high salt intake did not further increase cardiac hypertrophy or further impair cardiac function in MI rats. A chronic increase in salt intake significantly suppressed PRA, but did not prevent activation of the local RAS or the progression of cardiac remodelling and left ventricular dysfunction caused by MI. 6. The present results show that inhibition of systemic renin production with salt overload does not affect ventricular remodelling after MI in rats. This suggests that local activation of the RAS in the heart, which was not suppressed by salt overload, exerts a predominant role for local adaptations of the heart after MI.

Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study of High-Dose HMG CoA Reductase Inhibitor Therapy on Ventricular Remodeling, Pro-Inflammatory Cytokines and Neurohormonal Parameters in Patients With Chronic Systolic Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Statins decrease mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. However, chronic heart failure (CHF) patients were often excluded in such trials. Statins possess pharmacologic properties (independent of cholesterol lowering) that may be beneficial on ventricular remodeling in such patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a 6-month randomized placebo (PBO)-controlled study of rosuvastatin (ROS) in patients with systolic (left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] <40%) CHF of ischemic or nonischemic etiology. The primary end point was change in LVEF by radionuclide ventriculogram. Secondary end points included change in echocardiographic parameters, neurohormonal and inflammatory markers, Packer composite score, death, and heart failure hospitalization. Patients were well matched for baseline values. Compared with PBO (n = 46), ROS patients (n = 40) had a decrease in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (PBO +3, ROS -54%, P < .001). There was no significant change in LVEF by radionuclide ventriculogram (PBO +5.3, ROS +3.2%), fractional shortening by echocardiographic (PBO +2.7, ROS +1.8%), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (PBO -1.7, ROS +0.8 mm), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (PBO -1.9, ROS +0.1 mm). Plasma norepinephrine, endothelin-1, brain natriuretic peptide, hsCRP, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6, patient global assessment, Packer composite, death/heart failure hospitalization, and adverse events were similar between PBO and ROS.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite being safe and effective at decreasing plasma cholesterol, high-dose ROS did not beneficially alter parameters of LV remodeling. Reasons for absence of benefit are uncertain, but may include patient population studied, high dose of ROS used or high use of effective background CHF medications.

Long-term survival of patients with heart failure and ventricular conduction delay treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy

This multicenter longitudinal observational trial was designed to analyze the long-term outcome of patients with heart failure (HF) treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) alone or with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) backup in a daily practice scenario. It is unknown whether the magnitude of survival benefits conferred by CRT in a daily practice scenario is comparable to what has been observed in randomized controlled trials and whether this benefit is sustained over the long term. The outcome of 1,303 consecutive patients with ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy on optimal pharmacologic therapy treated from August 1, 1995 to August 1, 2004 at 4 European centers with CRT alone (44%) or with ICD backup for symptomatic HF and prolonged QRS duration was assessed. Cumulative event-free survival was evaluated for a combined end point, defined as death from any cause, urgent transplantation, or implantation of a left ventricular assist device. The cumulative incidence of competing events, HF, sudden cardiac death, and noncardiac death, was also assessed. Event-free survival was similar across the different centers. At 1 and 5 years, cumulative event-free survivals were 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 91 to 94) and 56% (95% CI 48 to 64), respectively. The cumulative incidence of HF deaths was 25.1% (95% CI 19 to 31.7), whereas that of sudden death was 9.5% (95% CI 5.1 to 15.7). Using multivariate analysis, CRT with an ICD backup was associated with a nonsignificant decrease in mortality by 20% (hazard ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.17, p = 0.284), with a highly significant protective effect against sudden cardiac death (hazard ratio 0.04, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.28, p <0.002). In conclusion, patients with advanced HF and a wide QRS complex routinely treated with CRT have a favorable long-term outcome that was reproducible at different centers. The leading cause of death in these patients remained HF, and this mode of death was competing with other causes in determining outcome. Total mortality was 20% lower with ICD backup (95% CI 42% lower to 17% higher) due to a protective effect against sudden cardiac death.

A novel prognostic index to determine the impact of cardiac conditions and co-morbidities on one-year outcome in patients with heart failure

Prognostic stratification is relevant in clinical decision making in heart failure (HF). Predictors identified during hospitalization or in clinical trials may be unrepresentative of HF in the community. The aim of this study was to derive and validate, in different clinical settings, a risk stratification model for the prediction of stable HF outcomes. The study included 807 patients, 350 enrolled at discharge from the hospital (44%), 309 in the outpatient clinic (38%), and 148 in the home-care setting (18%). There were 292 patients in the derivation cohort and 515 in the validation cohort. A multivariate logistic analysis was performed to obtain the CardioVascular Medicine Heart Failure (CVM-HF) index. One-year mortality was 20.8% in the derivation cohort and 20.7% in the validation cohort. The CVM-HF index included cardiac conditions and co-morbidities and stratified the 1-year mortality risk as low (death rate 4%), average (32%), high (63%), and very high (96%). The area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.844 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.779 to 0.89) for the derivation cohort and 0.812 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.86) for the validation cohort. Model performance was equally good in the 3 different HF settings. In a subgroup of 409 patients, the CVM-HF index (area under the curve 0.821, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.89) outperformed the most-used prognostic models (the Charlson index and the Heart Failure Risk Scoring System). In conclusion, the CVM-HF index, a novel prognostic model that is easy to derive and applicable to unselected patients, may represent a valuable tool for the prognostication of stable HF outcomes.

The central circulation in congestive heart failure non-invasively evaluated with dynamic positron emission tomography

BACKGROUND

Positron emission tomography (PET) with [15O]-H2O-PET (WAT-PET) or [11C]-acetate (AC-PET) quantifies myocardial perfusion and oxidative metabolism, but routine clinical use is hampered by the need for additional investigations to assess cardiac performance.

OBJECTIVE

To apply classical tracer kinetics to dynamic PET could provide important haemodynamic parameters.

METHODS

First-pass PET data were used with indicator dilution techniques to measure stroke volume index (SVI). Early pulmonary retention of [11C]-acetate was converted to standard uptake values (SUV) (Lung(AC-SUV)). Regional lung water (rLW) content was computed from the WAT-PET scan at equilibrium. PET was compared with radionuclide angiography and echocardiography in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy with New York Heart Association class II (n = 10) or III (n = 18) congestive heart failure. Elderly male volunteers without heart disease (n = 11) underwent AC-PET as controls.

RESULTS

SVI with both tracers correlated in patients (r = 0.91, P<0.001, estimated standard error = 4 ml m(-2)) and with left ventricular ejection fraction (both tracers r>0.6, P<0.001). SVI was significantly different between all groups (ANOVA: P<0.001). Lung(AC-SUV) correlated with rLW (r = 0.78, P<0.001) and both were elevated in severe heart failure (P<0.05 for both). Elevated Lung(AC-SUV) was associated with a restrictive left ventricular (LV) filling pattern by Doppler echocardiography.

CONCLUSION

Dynamic PET with first-pass analysis and tracers of myocardial perfusion enables quantification of the haemodynamic consequences of LV systolic and diastolic dysfunctions in ischaemic cardiomyopathy and could be useful in the evaluation of the central circulation in heart failure.

Cardiac troponin I and ventricular arrhythmia in patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Both detectable serum cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and ventricular dysrhythmias are common in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and are paralleled with the severity of the CHF. However, the relationship between serum cTnI and ventricular arrhythmia severity in patients with CHF remains unknown; the mechanism of the ventricular arrhythmia in the CHF patients also remains unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study group included 218 patients with CHF who had cTnI assay drawn at the time of initial presentation. Patients with acute myocardial infarction or myocarditis were excluded from the analysis. The patients were divided into two groups: cTnI-positive with serum cTnI > 0.5 ng mL(-1) (n = 98) and cTnI-negative with serum cTnI < or = 0.5 ng mL(-1) (n = 120). The severity of ventricular dysrhythmias was assessed by 24-h Holter monitoring, using prospectively defined measures of ventricular arrhythmic burden.

RESULTS

Prevalence of risk factors for ventricular dysrhythmias was equal in both groups. All measures of ventricular ectopy were much higher in patients of the cTnI-positive groups. Mean hourly ventricular pairs (13.59 +/- 10.3 vs. 11.1 +/- 6.01, P = 0.027), mean hourly repetitive ventricular beats (26.01 +/- 13.67 vs. 22.01 +/- 13.56, P = 0.032), and the frequency of ventricular tachycardia episodes per 24 h (12.54 +/- 16.68 vs. 7.68 +/- 11.54, P = 0.012) were higher in patients with detectable cTnI levels. After inclusion of clinical variables and drug therapies in a multivariate analysis, the positive relationship between cTnI and the frequency of ventricular pairs (P = 0.03), repetitive ventricular beats (P = 0.037), and ventricular tachycardia (P = 0.03) remained independent. In multivariate logistic regression, the risk of developing ventricular tachycardia was higher in patients with detectable cTnI levels with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 2.31 (95% CI, 1.22-2.65, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CHF, serum cTnI is closely related to increased occurrence of ventricular dysrhythmias and could identify a subgroup of patients with ventricular tachycardia. The minimal myocardial injury detected by serum cTnI might be the abnormal substrate for ventricular dysrhythmias.

Validation of a Risk Score for Dying Within 1 Year of an Admission for Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Development of heart failure greatly reduces life expectancy. Accurate estimates of the risk of dying are needed in clinical practice and for risk adjustment in observational studies. A relatively simple risk score has been developed to determine the risk of dying within 1-year of an admission for heart failure. We wanted to evaluate the risk score's predictive validity.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were abstracted from the electronic medical records of 769 patients admitted to the Minneapolis Veterans Administration medical center with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Mortality within 1 year of admission was 25%. The c-index for the risk score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.67-0.76). Similar to the original derivation cohort, mortality in risk score groups was 7% for a score lower than 60 (n = 44), 14% for 61 to 90 (n = 246), 26% for 91 to 120 (n = 222), 51% for 121 to 150 (n = 106), and 50% for scores greater than 150 (n = 8).

CONCLUSION

A previously developed risk score for 1-year mortality after an admission for heart failure provided a moderate degree of discrimination in a validation cohort from a different setting. Mortality in risk score groups was consistent with the original patient cohort. These results support the validity of the risk score and its application to a different patient population.

Clinical predictors and timing of New York Heart Association class improvement with cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with advanced chronic heart failure: results from the Multicenter InSync Randomized Clinical Evaluation (MIRACLE) and Multicenter InSync ICD Randomized Clinical Evaluation (MIRACLE-ICD) trials

BACKGROUND

Based on current patient selection criteria, a significant proportion of recipients of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) do not respond to treatment. The purpose of this analysis is to identify predictors and characterize the timing of response to CRT in patients with advanced heart failure.

METHODS

Patients randomized to receive CRT in the MIRACLE and MIRACLE-ICD trials, designed to assess the benefit of CRT compared with standard medical therapy in patients with advanced heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction <0.35, and QRS > or =130 milliseconds, were included for this analysis. Patients with an improvement of > or =1 New York Heart Association (NYHA) class from baseline to the 6-month follow-up were considered responders and those who had no change or worse NYHA class or died were classified as nonresponders. Responders were subdivided into early (within 1-3 months) and late (6 months).

RESULTS

One hundred forty-three (64%) of 224 and 190 (61%) of 313 patients in the MIRACLE and MIRACLE-ICD trials, respectively, responded to therapy, with 81 (57%) of 143 and 100 (53%) of 190 responding early. Several but differing factors predicted CRT response and timing in the two trials with a high sensitivity (89%-90%) but, owing to a low specificity (31%-49%), a modest predictive accuracy (66%-75%).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on improvement of > or =1 NYHA class, less than two thirds of patients enrolled in the MIRACLE or MIRACLE-ICD trials responded to CRT, with just more than half responding within the first month. Several factors predicted CRT response and timing, but given their modest predictive accuracy, comparable for both studies, additional methods for selecting candidates most likely to benefit from CRT are needed.

Non-Invasive Cardiac Evaluation in Heart Failure Patients Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Feasibility Study

BACKGROUND

To assess the feasibility of a fast, flow-insensitive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) protocol in heart failure patients for the evaluation of cardiac function, cardiovascular anatomy, and myocardial viability.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Thirty-two consecutive patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction and 13 control subjects were prospectively evaluated with MRI. The exam consisted of cine imaging with a steady-state free precession sequence, followed by time-resolved, three-dimensional angiography and delayed, contrast-enhanced imaging. Multiple LV parameters were evaluated, and the heart failure and control results were compared. In 12 patients, MRI-determined ejection fractions were compared to echocardiographic values. Additionally, a qualitative analysis of the cine images was performed. The cardiac MR evaluation yielded diagnostic-quality images in all subjects. Mean imaging time was 37 min. MRI demonstrated significant differences between the heart failure and control subjects in all parameters assessed (p < 0.05). MRI-determined ejection fractions correlated strongly with echocardiographic values (R = 0.75), although the limits of agreement were wide (-17.3%-18.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Using fast, flow-insensitive imaging techniques, MRI is feasible in heart failure for the derivation of more independent indices of cardiac status than any other non-invasive test. Although further investigation is warranted, MRI may prove uniquely helpful in heart failure diagnosis and management.

Predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure

AIMS

We aimed to develop prognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We evaluated data from 7599 patients in the CHARM programme with CHF with and without left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Multi-variable Cox regression models were developed using baseline candidate variables to predict all-cause mortality (n=1831 deaths) and the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (n=2460 patients with events). Final models included 21 predictor variables for CV death/HF hospitalization and for death. The three most powerful predictors were older age (beginning >60 years), diabetes, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) (beginning <45%). Other independent predictors that increased risk included higher NYHA class, cardiomegaly, prior HF hospitalization, male sex, lower body mass index, and lower diastolic blood pressure. The model accurately stratified actual 2-year mortality from 2.5 to 44% for the lowest to highest deciles of predicted risk.

CONCLUSION

In a large contemporary CHF population, including patients with preserved and decreased left ventricular systolic function, routine clinical variables can discriminate risk regardless of EF. Diabetes was found to be a surprisingly strong independent predictor. These models can stratify risk and help define how patient characteristics relate to clinical course.

Heart failure after myocardial infarction: clinical presentation and survival

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the presentation and outcome of patients with heart failure (HF) after myocardial infarction (MI) according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and test the hypothesis that the outcome of HF did not change over time.

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the presentation and outcome of HF post-MI and how these may have changed over time.

METHODS

Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota who experienced an incident MI between 1979 and 1998 were identified; MI and HF were validated using standardized criteria. Subjects were followed through their community medical record.

RESULTS

Between 1979 and 1998, 1915 patients with incident MI and no prior history of HF were identified. Of these, 791(41%) experienced new onset HF as defined by Framingham criteria during 6.6+/-5.0 years of follow-up. Forty-seven percent were men, mean age was 73+/-12 years. Forty-four percent had impaired LVEF, 18% preserved LVEF and 38% had no LVEF measurement within 60 days after the HF event. Median survival after HF onset was 4 years and at 5 years after HF onset, only 45% were alive. Older age, male sex, comorbidity, hypertension and no LVEF assessment were associated with increased risk of death, however, patients with impaired LVEF had the worst outcome. Over time, survival did not improve (HR for year: 1.00; 95% CI 0.99, 1.02; P=0.919) even after adjustment for baseline characteristics.

CONCLUSION

In this geographically defined cohort of patients with MI, new onset HF after the MI was frequent. When measured, LVEF was most frequently reduced, consistent with systolic heart failure. Mortality was high and did not decline over time and death was independently associated with male sex, older age, hypertension and comorbidity. It also differed according to LVEF, which was inconsistently ascertained in this setting, potentially representing practice opportunities.

The risk of cardiovascular death in elderly patients with possible heart failure. Results from a 6-year follow-up of a Swedish primary care population

Little is known about the prognosis and clinical variables influencing the prognosis among elderly patients in primary health care with mild to moderate heart failure.

AIM

To evaluate the risk of cardiovascular mortality in elderly patients with symptoms of heart failure with respect to systolic and diastolic function, and functional impairment. To evaluate prognostic determinants and to risk-stratify the patients.

METHODS

A cardiologist examined 510 patients, out of 548 invited, attending primary care for symptoms of dyspnoea, fatigue and/or peripheral oedema and assessed New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class. Examination by Doppler echocardiography was done in 454 patients, 56 patients being excluded because of, e.g., atrial fibrillation. Abnormal systolic function was defined as ejection fraction<40%. The diastolic function was evaluated using the mitral inflow and pulmonary venous flow variables. Different clinical and echocardiographic variables were analysed using a Cox regression analysis to identify those most influencing the risk of cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSION

Abnormal systolic and/or diastolic function was found in 219 patients (48% of the 454 patients who could be echocardiographically completely investigated). The follow-up period was 6 years. Total mortality was 20%, and cardiovascular mortality was 14% (70% of total mortality). Cardiovascular mortality was high in patients with severely impaired functional capacity and ejection fraction<40% at the start of the study. Risk variables identified were male gender, diabetes mellitus, impaired functional capacity and abnormal cardiac function by echocardiography. A prognostic score model using simple clinical variables (gender, NYHA class, cardiac function) was developed to assess the risk of cardiovascular death in order to identify patients with high, moderate or low risk. In a ROC curve analysis, the AUC for clinical variables was only 0.75, whereas the AUC for clinical variables and echocardiography was 0.78, indicating that the additional prognostic information obtained by Doppler echocardiography was rather small.

Minor myocardial damage detected by troponin T is a powerful predictor of long-term prognosis in patients with acute decompensated heart failure

BACKGROUND

The progression of chronic heart failure (CHF) is characterized by frequent exacerbation requiring hospitalization and high mortality. Clinical deterioration is triggered by many factors that could promote ongoing myocytes injury. We sought to determine whether a specific marker of cardiac injury, troponin T (cTnT), is associated with prognosis in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).

METHODS

One hundred and eighty-four consecutive patients with ADHF were enrolled in the absence of an acute coronary syndrome. A cTnT value> or =0.1 ng/ml in samples drawn at 6, 12 or 24 h after hospital admission was considered abnormal.

RESULTS

Increased levels of cTnT were found in 58 patients (31.5%, group 1). There were no significant differences between group 1 and patients with cTnT<0.1 ng/ml (group 2) in terms of demographic and clinical characteristics, although ischemic etiology was more prevalent in group 1 (51.7% vs. 31.7%, p=0.009). During follow-up, the mortality in groups 1 and 2 was 31% and 17.5% (p=0.038, OR=2.13, 95% CI: 1.03-4.69), respectively. The 3-year free-CHF readmission survival in group 1 and 2 was 25% and 53% (log rank test p=0.015). In a Cox proportional hazard model, poor tissue perfusion (HR=2.46, 95% CI=1.31-4.6), previous infarction (HR=1.99, 95% CI=1.02-3.9) and cTnT> or =0.1 ng/ml (HR=1.74, 95% CI=1.05-2.9) emerged as the independent predictors of long-term outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

One third of patients with decompensated CHF had elevated levels of cTnT. Troponin T was an independent long-term prognostic marker of morbidity and mortality and it suggests a role of biochemical risk stratification in this setting.

Ongoing Myocardial Injury in Stable Severe Heart Failure

Background— The progression of chronic heart failure (CHF) is related to ongoing myocyte loss, which can be detected by cardiac troponin T (cTnT). We examined the prevalence and prognostic value of increased cTnT concentrations in serial blood specimens from patients with severe CHF.

Methods and Results— Clinical, echocardiographic, and 6-minute walk test data were collected prospectively at baseline and at 1 year in 115 outpatients (mean age, 61±11 years; 75% men; 62% coronary heart disease) with CHF and a left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. Blood samples were collected at baseline and at 3, 6, and 12 months of follow-up. cTnT concentrations ≥0.02 ng/mL were considered abnormal, and a Tn index (highest cTnT measurement/0.02 ng/mL) was calculated. In 62 patients (54%), cTnT was consistently <0.02 ng/mL (group 1); 28 (24%) had a single abnormal cTnT result (group 2); and 25 (22%) had ≥2 abnormal cTnT results (group 3). At 18 months, CHF hospitalization-free survival was 63%, 46%, and 17%, respectively ( P =0.0001). In a Cox proportional-hazards model, hospitalization for worsening CHF in the previous year (HR=2.1; 95% CI, 1.1 to 4.1), functional class III–IV (HR=2.3; 95% CI, 1.1 to 4.6), and number of abnormal cTnT samples (HR=1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.4) were independently associated with prognosis. A cTnT rise of 0.020 ng/mL in any sample was associated with an excess of 9% (95% CI, 1% to 18%) in the incidence of combined end point.

Conclusions— Abnormal cTnT concentrations were detected in >50% of outpatients with advanced CHF. This ongoing myocardial necrosis was a strong predictor of worsening CHF, suggesting a role of cTnT-based monitoring to identify high-risk patients.

Association of beta-adrenergic receptor polymorphisms and progression to heart failure in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy

PURPOSE

Increased sympathetic nervous system activation via the beta-adrenergic pathway influences the evolution of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. We assessed the effects of beta-adrenergic receptor variants on heart failure in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy.

METHODS

We prospectively analyzed 171 consecutive patients (mean [+/- SD] age, 49 +/- 14 years; 129 men) with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy who were receiving conventional treatment. All were characterized by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis for Ser49Gly and Arg389Gly in the beta1-adrenergic receptor; the 5' leader cistron (LC) Arg19Cys, Arg16Gly, Gln27Glu, and Thr164Ile in the beta2-adrenergic receptor; and Arg64Trp in the beta3-adrenergic receptor. The endpoint was heart failure, defined as a worsening of clinical condition leading to hospitalization for heart failure, cardiac transplantation, or death from heart failure.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 33 months, 24 patients had heart failure. In a Cox univariate analysis, the beta1Gly49 and beta2 5'LC-Cys19, Arg16, and Gln27 alleles were associated with a lower risk of heart failure. In a multivariate analysis that considered age, functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and beta-blocker use, three beta2-adrenergic receptor alleles were associated with lower risk: 5'LC-Cys19 (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05 to 0.42), Arg16 (HR: 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.35), and Gln27 (HR: 0.15; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.42).

CONCLUSION

The Gly49 allele in the beta1-adrenergic receptor and the 5' LC-Cys19, Arg16, and Gln27 alleles in the beta2-adrenergic receptor were associated with a lower risk of heart failure in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, suggesting that the beta1- and beta2-adrenergic receptor genes are modifier genes.

Usefulness of123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine myocardial scintigraphy in the prediction of cardiac events in patients with cardiomyopathy showing stabilization of symptoms or preserved cardiac function

OBJECTIVE

It is not rare for patients with cardiomyopathy to be asymptomatic for long periods or to show improved cardiac function following various medical interventions. Conversely, cardiac events sometimes occur in those patients, requiring close observation. We assessed the usefulness of 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine myocardial scintigraphy (MIBG) to predict the occurrence of cardiac events in patients with stable cardiomyopathy.

METHODS

The subjects comprised 74 outpatients with stable cardiomyopathy. MIBG was performed calculate the extent score, severity score, washout rate (WR), and heart-to-mediastinum ratio. At about the same time, the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) by echocardiography and the plasma brain natriuretic peptide were measured. The mean observation period extended for 741+/-437 days with an end point of cardiac events (cardiac death, heart failure requiring hospitalization, and arrhythmias requiring hospitalization).

RESULTS

During the mean follow-up period, 15 cardiac events occurred. Results of multivariate analysis revealed that LVEF was the most powerful predictor of cardiac events (0.006, p < 0.01). However, WR was the only significant predictor of hard events such as cardiac death (1.171, p < 0.001) and cardiac events in the group of patients who preserved cardiac function with LVEF 0.4 or higher (1.079, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Combined use of LVEF and WR is useful to predict the occurrence of cardiac events in patients with stable cardiomyopathy.

A common variant of the AMPD1 gene predicts improved survival in patients with ischemic left ventricular dysfunction

BACKGROUND

A recent retrospective study suggested that the adenosine monophosphate deaminase (AMPD)-1 gene variant C34T predicts outcome in heart failure patients. This variant might lead to ischemic preconditioning by increasing tissue adenosine. We tested whether the survival benefit of C34T occurs preferentially in the setting of ischemic left ventricular dysfunction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A consecutive cohort of patients (n=390) with left ventricular ejection fraction <40% was evaluated. In the ischemic patient subgroup (n=210) multivariate analysis identified AMPD1 T allele carriage (hazard ratio=0.43, confidence interval=0.20-0.94, P=.035) as an independent predictor of transplant-free cardiovascular survival. No benefit was found in the nonischemic group although the number of events was too small to reliably exclude a benefit by genotype.

CONCLUSION

The AMPD1 C34T polymorphism influences transplant-free cardiovascular survival in the setting of ischemic left ventricular dysfunction.

Prognostic value of health status in patients with heart failure after acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Disease-specific health status instruments such as the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) can quantify symptoms, functional limitations, and quality of life in patients with heart failure. Understanding the relationship between KCCQ scores and prognosis may assist clinicians in both interpreting KCCQ scores and stratifying risk in patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined the prognostic value of the KCCQ in a prospective, international cohort of 1516 patients with heart failure after a recent acute myocardial infarction. We focused on the relationship between the KCCQ overall score (KCCQ-os), measured at the first outpatient visit (4 weeks after enrollment), and subsequent 1-year cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization (n=258, 20.3%). KCCQ-os was strongly associated with subsequent cardiovascular events in that those with a score > or =75 had an 84% 1-year event-free survival compared with 59% for those with a score <25 (P<0.001). After demographic and other clinical characteristics were controlled for in multivariable models, KCCQ-os remained strongly associated with outcome (hazard ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.24 to 3.27 for KCCQ-os <25; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In outpatients with heart failure complicating an acute myocardial infarction, KCCQ-os is strongly associated with subsequent 1-year cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization. Use of the KCCQ in outpatient clinical practice can both quantify patients' health status and provide insight into their prognosis.

Elevated blood urea nitrogen level as a predictor of mortality in patients admitted for decompensated heart failure

BACKGROUND

Hospitalization for decompensated heart failure is associated with high mortality after discharge. In heart failure, renal function involves both cardiovascular and hemodynamic properties. We studied the relation between renal dysfunction and mortality in patients admitted for decompensated heart failure.

METHODS

The prognostic importance of four measures of renal function-blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio, and estimated creatinine clearance-was evaluated in 541 patients (mean [+/- SD] age, 63 +/- 14 years; 377 men [70%]) with a previous diagnosis of heart failure (96% with New York Heart Association class III or IV symptoms) who were admitted for clinical decompensation.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 343 +/- 185 days, 177 patients (33%) died. In multivariable Cox regression models, the risk of all-cause mortality increased with each quartile of blood urea nitrogen, with an adjusted relative risk of 2.3 in patients in the upper compared with the lower quartiles (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3 to 4.1; P = 0.005). Creatinine and estimated creatinine clearance were not significant predictors of mortality after adjustment for other covariates. Blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio yielded similar prognostic information as blood urea nitrogen (adjusted relative risk = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.4 to 3.8; P = 0.0007 for patients in the upper compared with the lower quartiles).

CONCLUSION

Blood urea nitrogen is a simple clinical variable that provides useful prognostic information in patients admitted for decompensated heart failure. In this setting, elevated blood urea nitrogen levels probably reflect the cumulative effects of hemodynamic and neurohormonal alterations that result in renal hypoperfusion.