Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Prognostic prediction models for treatment experienced people living with HIV: a protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Despite the favourable efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV/AIDS continues to impose significant disease burdens worldwide. This study aims to systematically review published prognostic prediction models for survival outcomes of treatment experienced people living with HIV (TE-PLHIV), to describe their characteristics, compare their performance and assess the risk of bias and real-world clinical utility.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Studies will be identified through a comprehensive search in PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, and OpenGrey databases. Two reviewers will independently conduct a selection of eligible studies, data extraction and critical appraisal. Included studies will be systematically summarised using appropriate tools designed for prognostic prediction modelling studies. Where applicable, evidence will be summarised with meta-analyses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required because only available published data will be analysed. The results of this work will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration number CRD42023412118.

Factors associated with HIV-positive status awareness among adults with long term HIV infection in four countries in the East and Southern Africa region: A multilevel approach

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) appropriately and regularly used decreases the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral load in the bloodstream, preventing HIV-infected people from spreading the infection to others. Disparities in ART adoption persists in East and Southern Africa, with low HIV-positive status knowledge being the primary factor. We investigated individual and household characteristics of HIV-positive status awareness among adults with long-term HIV infection in four East and Southern African countries: Eswatini, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. The study analyzed data from surveys conducted in Eswatini, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe in 2015-2016. Only individuals who tested positive for HIV through rapid tests were included in the analysis. Those who already knew they were HIV-positive were categorized as aware, while those who reported being negative, never tested, or didn't know their status were categorized as unaware. Statistical models were used to examine various factors related to HIV awareness. Pooled and country-specific odds ratios were computed. The percentage of people who knew they had HIV ranged from 58% (Tanzania and Malawi) to 87% (Eswatini). After adjusting for other variables, young persons in all countries were less likely to be aware of their HIV-positive status. Gender, marital status, education, working status, household wealth, and urbanization level of households were also associated with HIV-positive status awareness but inconsistent across countries. HIV-positive status awareness in these four East and Southern African nations remained unsatisfactory as compared to the United Nations' 95% guideline, indicating that testing and knowledge of HIV testing in this region still has a lot of potential for improvement. The observed variations among nations may be attributable to differences in HIV pandemic culture and policies. The findings of this study will assist governments determining which subpopulations to target to boost adoption of HIV testing services, as well as in designing and development of policies.

Prevalence and trends of advanced HIV disease among antiretroviral therapy-naïve and antiretroviral therapy-experienced patients in South Africa between 2010-2021: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the significant progress made in South Africa in getting millions of individuals living with HIV into care, many patients still present or re-enter care with Advanced HIV Disease (AHD). We aimed to estimate the prevalence of AHD among ART-naive and ART-experienced patients in South Africa using studies published between January 2010 and May 2022.

METHODS

We searched for relevant data on PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus and other sources, with a geographical filters limited to South Africa, up to May 31, 2022. Two reviewers conducted all screening, eligibility assessment, data extraction, and critical appraisal. We synthesized the data using the inverse-variance heterogeneity model and Freeman-Tukey transformation. We assessed heterogeneity using the I2 statistic and publication bias using the Egger and Begg's test.

RESULTS

We identified 2,496 records, of which 53 met the eligibility criteria, involving 11,545,460 individuals. The pooled prevalence of AHD among ART-naive and ART-experienced patients was 43.45% (95% CI 40.1-46.8%, n = 53 studies) and 58.6% (95% CI 55.7 to 61.5%, n = 2) respectively. The time trend analysis showed a decline of 2% in the prevalence of AHD among ART-naive patients per year. However, given the high heterogeneity between studies, the pooled prevalence should be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSION

Despite HIV's evolution to a chronic disease, our findings show that the burden of AHD remains high among both ART-naive and ART-experienced patients in South Africa. This emphasizes the importance of regular measurement of CD4 cell count as an essential component of HIV care. In addition, providing innovative adherence support and interventions to retain ART patients in effective care is a crucial priority for those on ART.

A retrospective clinical study of dolutegravir- versus efavirenz-based regimen in treatment-naïve patients with advanced HIV infection in Nanjing, China

Currently, there are limited data related to the efficacy and safety of ART regimens, as well as factors influencing immune recovery in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve patients with advanced HIV infection, especially in China. We designed a single-center, retrospective cohort study from March 1, 2019, to May 31, 2022, at The Second Hospital of Nanjing, China. ART-naïve adults with advanced HIV infection (CD4+ T-cell count < 200 cells/μL) who met the study criteria were included. The plasma viral load (VL), CD4+ T-cell count, CD4/CD8 ratio, treatment discontinuation, and immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) events were collected to compare the efficacy and safety of the dolutegravir (DTG) and the efavirenz (EFV) regimens. Factors of immune recovery were analyzed using the Cox regression model. Study enrolled 285 ART-naïve adults with advanced HIV-1 infection, of which 95 (33.3%) started regimens including DTG and 190 (66.7%) were treated with EFV. After ART initiation, the proportion of patients with HIV-1 RNA < 50 copies/mL was higher (22.5% versus 6.5%, P < 0.001) in those on DTG-based regimens at month 1, but no significant difference at other follow-up points. Compared to the baseline, the median CD4+ T-cell count and CD4/CD8 ratio increased significantly during follow-up both in the EFV and the DTG groups. However, the CD4+ T-cell count increased greater in patients on DTG-based regimens at months 6, 12, 24, and 36 (P < 0.05). A total of 52 (18.2%) patients discontinued treatment, with no significant difference between ART regimens in treatment discontinuation rates. Only 7 patients reported IRIS, without significant difference between ART regimens (P=0.224). Overall, 34.0% (97/285) achieved a CD4+ T-cell count ≥ 350 cells/μL during follow-up. Age (P < 0.001), baseline CD4+ T-cell count (P < 0.001), baseline VL (P < 0.001) and ART regimens (P = 0.019) were associated with the CD4+ T-cell count ≥ 350 cells/μL after adjusting for potential confounders. Among ART-naïve adults with advanced HIV infection, it appeared that DTG-based regimens were better options for initial therapy compared to regimens including EFV; in addition, ART regimens, age, baseline VL and CD4+ T-cell count were associated with immune recovery.

Differences in Reasons for Late Presentation to HIV Care in Uganda Among Men and Women

Late presentation to HIV care, i.e., presenting with < 200 CD4 cells/mL, is associated with higher mortality and worse outcomes. Despite that, a quarter of people living with HIV in Uganda still present late to care. We surveyed Ugandans living with HIV who enrolled in clinic ≤ 90 days prior. We compared groups who presented 'late' with CD4 < 200 and 'early' with CD4 > 350, stratifying by sex. We found men who presented late had higher externalized stigma than early presenters. Thirty-six percent of the entire cohort were depressed. Social support was stronger in late presenters versus early, although weak overall. Social support was inversely correlated with depression, with social support dropping as depression increased. Interventions to improve clinic privacy, reduce stigma, improve social support, and help women disclose their HIV status to male partners are needed to reduce late presentation to HIV care.

Coexistence of Cryptococcal Fungemia and Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia in an HIV-Infected Patient: A Case Report

INTRODUCTION

Opportunistic infections caused by bacteria and fungi are common in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. Cryptococcus neoformans and Pneumocystis jirovecii are the most common opportunistic infections in immunosuppressed individuals, but their coexistence is rare. To our knowledge, this is the first case presented in Turkey involving the coexistence of C.neoformans fungemia and P.jirovecii pneumonia.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 26-year-old male patient presented with a cachectic appearance, cough, sputum, weakness, shortness of breath, and a weight loss of 15 kg in the last three months. It was learned that the patient was diagnosed with HIV three years ago, did not go to follow-ups, and did not use the treatments. CD4 cell count was 7/mm3 (3.4%), CD8 cell count was 100 (54%) mm3, and HIV viral load was 5670 copies/mL. In thorax computed tomography (CT), increases in opacity in diffuse ground glass density in both lungs and fibroatelectasis in lower lobes were observed. With the prediagnosis of P. jiroveci pneumonia, the HIV-infected patient was given trimethoprim-- sulfamethoxazole 15 mg/kg/day intravenously (i.v.). On the 4th day of the patient's hospitalization, mutiplex PCR-based rapid syndromic Biofire (Film Array) blood culture identification 2 (BCID2) test (Biomerieux, France) was applied for rapid identification from blood culture. C. neoformans was detected in the blood culture panel. The treatment that the patient was taking with the diagnosis of C. neoformans fungemia was started at a dose of liposomal amphotericin B 5 mg/kg/- day + fluconazole 800 mg/day.

CONCLUSION

While the incidence of opportunistic infections has decreased with antiretroviral therapy (ART), it remains a problem in patients who are unaware of being infected with HIV or who fail ART or refuse treatment. High fungal burden, advanced age, low CD4+ cell count, and being underweight are risk factors for mortality in HIV-positive patients. Our case was a cachectic patient with a CD4 count of 7 cells/mm3. Despite the early and effective treatment, the course was fatal.

Effectiveness of linkage to care and prevention interventions following HIV self-testing: a global systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

Early identification of persons living with HIV (PLWH) is crucial to institute timely treatment to prevent HIV-related morbidity and mortality. The convenience, flexibility and confidentiality of HIV self-testing enhance the acceptability of HIV testing and early detection of PLWH. However, persons who tested positive after a self-test are more likely to present late for treatment. This review seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to improve linkage to care and prevention after self-testing.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will search PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, PsycInfo, Global Health Library, ClinicalTrials.gov and current controlled trials for all randomised and non-randomised studies published from 1 January 2010 to 31 July 2022 without language restriction. Two review authors will independently screen and select articles (based on the eligibility criteria for this review), extract data and assess the risk of bias in the included studies. Study-specific estimates will be converted to log risk ratios and weighted by the inverse of the variance of the log risk ratio before pooling into a fixed-effect model. The Cochrane's Q χ2 test and the I2 statistic will be used to assess and quantify heterogeneity in the included studies, respectively. The Egger's test and funnel plots will be used to assess publication bias. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted using leave-one-out analysis to assess the impact of outliers on the overall summary intervention effect.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No ethical clearance is needed for the current study as it will be based on already published articles. We will publish the findings of this study in international peer-reviewed journals and present them at conferences.

Effect of antiretroviral therapy care interruptions on mortality in children living with HIV

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of HIV-infected children that have care interruptions, during which the child's health status and use of medication is unknown.

DESIGN

We included data on children initiating ART between 2004 and 2016 at less than 16 years old at 16 International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa cohorts. Children were classified as loss to follow up (LTFU) if they had not attended clinic for more than 180 days. Children had a care interruption if they were classified as LTFU, and subsequently returned to care. Children who died within 180 days of ART start were excluded.

METHODS

The main outcome was all cause mortality. Two exposed groups were considered: those with a first care interruption within the first 6 months on ART, and those with a first care interruption after 6 months on ART. Adjusted hazard ratios were determined using a Cox regression model.

RESULTS

Among 53 674 children included, 23 437 (44%) had a care interruption, of which 10 629 (20%) had a first care interruption within 6 months on ART and 12 808 (24%) had a first care interruption after 6 months on ART. Increased mortality was associated with a care interruption within 6 months on ART [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.52, 95% CI 1.12-2.04] but not with a care interruption after 6 months on ART (AHR = 1.05, 95% CI 0.77-1.44).

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that strengthening retention of children in care in the early period after ART initiation is critical to improving paediatric ART outcomes.

Pharmacogenetics of the Late-Onset Efavirenz Neurotoxicity Syndrome (LENS)

BACKGROUND

The late-onset efavirenz neurotoxicity syndrome (LENS) presents as ataxia and/or encephalopathy with supratherapeutic efavirenz plasma concentrations (>4 µg/mL). Efavirenz is primarily metabolized by cytochrome P450 2B6 (CYP2B6), with CYP2A6 as an accessory pathway. We hypothesized that participants with LENS would predominantly be CYP2B6 slow metabolizers. The aim of our study was to determine the frequency of CYP2B6 slow metabolizers in participants with LENS.

METHODS

Adult HIV-positive participants on efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy presenting with LENS were prospectively enrolled. Genetic polymorphisms known to be associated with increased efavirenz plasma concentrations in CYP2B6 (rs3745274, rs28399499, rs4803419) and CYP2A6 (rs28399433) were selected and used to determine proportions of slow metabolizers. Pharmacokinetic analyses were performed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Median (IQR) plasma efavirenz and 8-hydroxyefavirenz were described.

RESULTS

Fifteen participants were enrolled. Thirteen (13/15) were Black-African and 13 were female. Median weight was 49.9kg with a median duration on efavirenz of 2.2 years. All 15 participants were successfully genotyped as slow CYP2B6 metabolizers, with 6 participants additionally having CYP2A6 heterozygous genotype. Thirteen were receiving the CYP2A6 enzyme inhibitor isoniazid, and all 15 were genotypic NAT2 slow or intermediate acetylators. Efavirenz plasma concentration was markedly increased at 50.5 (47.0-65.4) µg/mL; 8-hydroxyefavirenz concentration was markedly decreased at 0.10 (0.07-0.15) µg/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Our cohort provides definitive evidence that LENS is associated with the CYP2B6 slow metabolizer genotype, with a median efavirenz plasma concentration >12-fold higher than the defined upper limit of the therapeutic range. Isoniazid and low body weight are important contributors to LENS development.

Overlapping Key Populations and HIV Transmission in Tijuana, Mexico: A Modelling Analysis of Epidemic Drivers

Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020-2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up < 10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020-2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.

Development and external validation of a prognostic model for survival of people living with HIV/AIDS initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background: Most existing prognostic models for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) were derived from cohorts in high-income settings established a decade ago and may not be applicable for contemporary patients, especially for patients in developing settings. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a prognostic model for survival in PLWHA initiating ART based on a large population-based cohort in China.

Methods: We obtained data for patients from the Chinese National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program database. The derivation cohort consisted of PLWHA treated between February 2004 and December 2019 in a tertiary center in Guangzhou, South China, and validation cohort of patients treated between February 2004 to December 2018 in another tertiary hospital in Shenyang, Northeast China. We included ART-naive patients aged above 16 who initiated a combination ART regimen containing at least three drugs and had at least one follow-up record. We assessed 20 candidate predictors including patient characteristics, disease characteristics, and laboratory tests for an endpoint of death from all causes. The prognostic model was developed from a multivariable cox regression model with predictors selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso). To assess the model's predictive ability, we quantified the discriminative power using the concordance (C) statistic and calibration accuracy by comparing predicted survival probabilities with observed survival probabilities estimated with the Kaplan–Meier method.

Findings: The derivation cohort included 16481 patients with a median follow-up of 3·41 years, among whom 735 died. The external validation cohort comprised 5751 participants with a median follow-up of 2·71 years, of whom 185 died. The final model included 10 predictors: age, body mass index, route of HIV acquisition, coinfection with tuberculosis, coinfection with hepatitis C virus, haemoglobin, CD4 cell count, platelet count, aspartate transaminase, and plasma glucose. The C-statistic was 0·84 (95% confidence interval 0·82–0·85) in internal validation after adjustment of optimism and 0·84 (0·82–0·87) in external validation, which remained consistently above 0·75 in all landmark time points within five years of follow up when using time-updated laboratory measurements. The calibration accuracy was satisfactory in both derivation and validation cohorts.

Interpretation: We have developed and externally validated a model to predict long-term survival in PLWHA on ART. This model could be applied to individualized patient counseling and management during treatment, and future innovative trial design.

Funding: Natural Science Foundation of China Excellent Young Scientists Fund, Natural Science Foundation of China International/Regional Research Collaboration Project, Natural Science Foundation of China Young Scientist Fund, the National Science and Technology Major Project of China,National Special Research Program of China for Important Infectious Diseases, 13th Five-Year Key Special Project of Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Joint-innovation Program in Healthcare for Special Scientific Research Projects of Guangzhou.

The cascade of care of HIV after one year of follow-up in a cohort of HIV-positive adult patients in three health settings of Morrumbene in rural Mozambique

OBJECTIVE

To assess the state of the retention in care of HIV patients in three health settings in Morrumbene, a rural district of Inhambane Province, Mozambique. We evaluated potential factors associated with early loss to follow-up (LTFU), retention in care and ART adherence during the first year of follow-up.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study. We collected data on patients diagnosed with HIV infection in 2017 in two permanent clinics and one mobile clinic. Demographic, clinical, immunological and therapeutic data were retrieved up to December 31st, 2018. Data on follow-up were collected at 6 and 12 months for medical visits and for ART adherence and analysed for factors associated with LTFU, retention in care and adherence to ART by Stata Version 14 and univariate and stepwise multiple unconditional logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In 2017, 960 patients were diagnosed with HIV infection. At 6-month follow-up, 49% attended the medical visit and 157 (25%) adhered to ART. After one year, 34% of patients were available for follow-up, and only 72 patients adhered to ART. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with early LTFU were male sex (p = 0.036) and immediate prescription of ART (p = 0.064). Older age (p < 0.001) and being followed in the mobile clinic (p = 0.001) favoured retention in care. Advanced WHO status (p = 0.005) and being pregnant or breastfeeding showed a negative correlation with adherence to treatment (p = 0.068).

CONCLUSIONS

Only one-third of patients were available for follow-up after one year, and only 13% adhered to ART. Young individuals, men and pregnant/breastfeeding women seem to be particularly at risk for LTFU and non-adherence to treatment.

Poor retention and care-related sex disparities among youth living with HIV in rural Mozambique

Background

There are few studies that characterize sex-related differences in HIV outcomes among adolescents and young adults (AYA) 15–24 years of age.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among AYA who enrolled in a comprehensive HIV program in Mozambique between 2012–2016. We assessed patients by sex and pregnancy/lactation status, comparing time to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation using Cox proportional hazard models. We employed multivariable logistic regression to investigate pre- and post-ART retention. Patients were defined as ‘retained pre-ART’ if they attended at least 3 of 4 required visits or started ART in the 6 months after enrollment, and ‘retained post-ART’ if they had any ART pickup or clinical visit during the last 90 days of the one-year follow-up period.

Results

Of 47,702 patients in the cohort, 81% (n = 38,511) were female and 19% (n = 9,191) were male. Of the females, 57% (n = 21,770) were non-pregnant and non-lactating (NPNL) and 43% (n = 16,741) were pregnant or lactating (PL). PL (aHR 2.64, 95%CI:2.47–2.81) and NPNL females (aHR 1.36, 95%CI:1.30–1.42) were more likely to initiate ART than males. PL females had higher odds of pre-ART retention in care (aOR 3.56, 95%CI: 3.30–3.84), as did NPNL females (aOR 1.71, 95%CI: 1.62–1.81), compared to males. This was also true for retention post-ART initiation, with higher odds for both PL (aOR 1.78, 95%CI:1.63–1.94) and NPNL females (aOR 1.50, 95%CI:1.35–1.65) compared to males.

Conclusions

PL females were most likely to initiate ART and remain in care post-ART in this AYA cohort, likely reflecting expansion of Option B+. Despite pregnancy and policy driven factors, we observed important sex-related disparities in this cohort. NPNL females were more likely to initiate ART and be retained in care before and after ART initiation than males. These data suggest that young males need targeted interventions to improve these important care continuum outcomes.

Selecting the model for multiple imputation of missing data: Just use an IC!

Multiple imputation and maximum likelihood estimation (via the expectation‐maximization algorithm) are two well‐known methods readily used for analyzing data with missing values. While these two methods are often considered as being distinct from one another, multiple imputation (when using improper imputation) is actually equivalent to a stochastic expectation‐maximization approximation to the likelihood. In this article, we exploit this key result to show that familiar likelihood‐based approaches to model selection, such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), can be used to choose the imputation model that best fits the observed data. Poor choice of imputation model is known to bias inference, and while sensitivity analysis has often been used to explore the implications of different imputation models, we show that the data can be used to choose an appropriate imputation model via conventional model selection tools. We show that BIC can be consistent for selecting the correct imputation model in the presence of missing data. We verify these results empirically through simulation studies, and demonstrate their practicality on two classical missing data examples. An interesting result we saw in simulations was that not only can parameter estimates be biased by misspecifying the imputation model, but also by overfitting the imputation model. This emphasizes the importance of using model selection not just to choose the appropriate type of imputation model, but also to decide on the appropriate level of imputation model complexity.

Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Clinical scores to determine early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality risk have not been developed for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to 70% of people living with HIV. In the absence of validated scores, WHO eligibility criteria (EC) for ART care intensification are CD4 < 200/μL or WHO stage III/IV.

METHODS

We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult ART enrollees to develop CD4-independent and CD4-dependent multivariable prognostic models for 6-month mortality. Scores were derived by rescaling coefficients. Scores were developed using the first 50% of XPRES ART enrollees, and their accuracy validated internally and externally using South African TB Fast Track (TBFT) trial data. Predictive accuracy was compared between scores and WHO EC.

RESULTS

Among 5553 XPRES enrollees, 2838 were included in the derivation dataset; 68% were female and 83 (3%) died by 6 months. Among 1077 TBFT ART enrollees, 55% were female and 6% died by 6 months. Factors predictive of 6-month mortality in the derivation dataset at p < 0.01 and selected for the CD4-independent score included male gender (2 points), ≥ 1 WHO tuberculosis symptom (2 points), WHO stage III/IV (2 points), severe anemia (hemoglobin < 8 g/dL) (3 points), and temperature > 37.5 °C (2 points). The same variables plus CD4 < 200/μL (1 point) were included in the CD4-dependent score. Among XPRES enrollees, a CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 86% sensitivity and 66% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 83% sensitivity and 58% specificity. If WHO stage alone was used, sensitivity was 48% and specificity 89%. Among TBFT enrollees, the CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 95% sensitivity and 27% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 100% sensitivity but 0% specificity. Accuracy was similar between CD4-independent and CD4-dependent scores. Categorizing CD4-independent scores into low (< 4), moderate (4-6), and high risk (≥ 7) gave 6-month mortality of 1%, 4%, and 17% for XPRES and 1%, 5%, and 30% for TBFT enrollees.

CONCLUSIONS

Sensitivity of the CD4-independent score was nearly twice that of WHO stage in predicting 6-month mortality and could be used in settings lacking CD4 testing to inform ART care intensification. The CD4-dependent score improved specificity versus WHO EC. Both scores should be considered for scale-up in SSA.

Predictors of first-line antiretroviral therapy failure among adults and adolescents living with HIV/AIDS in a large prevention and treatment program in Nigeria

Background

A substantial number of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria do not experience durable viral suppression on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Understanding risk factors for first-line treatment failure informs patient monitoring practices and distribution of limited resources for second-line regimens. We determined predictors of immunologic and virologic failures in a large ART delivery program in Abuja, Nigeria.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, a tertiary health care facility, using data from February 2005 to December 2014 in Abuja, Nigeria. All PLWH aged ≥ 15 years who initiated ART with at least 6-month follow-up and one CD4 measurement were included. Immunologic failure was defined as a CD4 decrease to or below pre-ART level or persistent CD4 < 100 cells per mm³ after 6 months on ART. Virologic failure (VF) was defined as two consecutive HIV-1 RNA levels > 1000 copies/mL after at least 6 months of ART and enhanced adherence counselling. HIV drug resistance (Sanger sequences) was analyzed using the Stanford HIV database algorithm and scored for resistance to common nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). Univariate and multivariate log binomial regression models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Of 12,452 patients followed, a total of 5928 initiated ART with at least 6 months of follow-up and one CD4 measurement. The entry point for 3924 (66.2%) was through the program’s own voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) center, while 1310 (22.1%) were referred from an outside clinic/program, 332 (5.6%) in-patients, and 373 (6.3%) through other entry points including prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and transferred from other programs. The mean CD4 at enrollment in care was 268 ± 23.7 cells per mm³, and the mean HIV-1 RNA was 3.3 ± 1.3.log₁₀ copies/mL. A total of 3468 (80.5%) received nevirapine (NVP) and 2260 (19.5%) received efavirenz (EFV)—based regimens. A total of 2140 (36.1%) received tenofovir (TDF); 2662 (44.9%) zidovudine (AZT); and 1126 (19.0%) stavudine (d4T). Among those receiving TDF, 45.0% also received emtricitabine (FTC). In a multivariate model, immunologic failure was more common among PLWH with female gender as compared to male [RR (95% CI) 1.22 (1.07–1.40)] and less common among those who entered care at the program’s VCT center as compared to other entry points [0.79 (0.64–0.91)], WHO stage 3/4 as compared to 1/2 [0.19 (0.16–0.22)], or CD4 200 + cells per mm³ as compared to lower [0.19 (0.16–0.22)]. Virologic failure was more common among PLWH who entered care at the program’s VCT center as compared to other entry points [RR (95% CI) 1.45 (1.11–1.91) and those with CD4 < 200 cells per mm³ at entry into care as compared to higher [1.71 (1.36–2.16)]. Of 198 patient-derived samples sequenced during virologic failure, 42 (21%) were wild-type; 145 (73%) carried NNRTI drug resistance mutations; 151 (76.3%) M184I/V; 29 (14.6%) had ≥ 3 TAMs, and 37 (18.7%) had K65R, of whom all were on TDF-containing first-line regimens.

Conclusions

In this cohort of Nigerian PLWH followed for a period of 9 years, immunologic criteria poorly predicted virologic failure. Furthermore, a subset of samples showed that patients failing ART for extended periods of time had HIV-1 strains harboring drug resistance mutations.

Higher iron stores and the HFE 187C>G variant delay onset of peripheral neuropathy during combination antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

People with HIV (PWH) continue to experience sensory neuropathy and neuropathic pain in the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era for unclear reasons. This study evaluated the role of iron in a previously reported association of iron-loading hemochromatosis (HFE) gene variants with reduced risk of neuropathy in PWH who received more neurotoxic cART, since an iron-related mechanism also might be relevant to neuropathic symptoms in PWH living in low-resource settings today.

DESIGN

This time-to-event analysis addressed the impact of systemic iron levels on the rapidity of neuropathy onset in PWH who initiated cART.

METHODS

Soluble transferrin receptor (sTFR), the sTFR-ferritin index of iron stores, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels were determined in stored baseline sera from participants of known HFE genotype from AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) Study 384, a multicenter randomized clinical trial that evaluated cART strategies. Associations with incident neuropathy were evaluated in proportional-hazards, time-to-event regression models, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Of 151 eligible participants with stored serum who were included in the original genetic study, 43 had cART-associated neuropathy; 108 had sufficient serum for analysis, including 30 neuropathy cases. Carriers of HFE variants had higher systemic iron (lower sTFR and sTFR-ferritin index) and lower hsCRP levels than non-carriers (all p<0.05). Higher sTFR or iron stores, the HFE 187C>G variant, and lower baseline hsCRP were associated with significantly delayed neuropathy in self-reported whites (n = 28; all p-values<0.05), independent of age, CD4+ T-cell count, plasma HIV RNA, and cART regimen.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher iron stores, the HFE 187C>G variant, and lower hsCRP predicted delayed onset of neuropathy among self-reported white individuals initating cART. These findings require confirmation but may have implications for cART in HIV+ populations in areas with high endemic iron deficiency, especially those PWH in whom older, more neurotoxic antiretroviral drugs are occasionally still used.

Revisiting the basis for haemoglobin screening in pregnancy

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Anaemia affects up to 50% of pregnancies worldwide, and is associated with maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Prevention and management of anaemia remains a priority. Despite this, there is ongoing debate on the optimal approach to identifying anaemia in pregnant women and the best strategies for prevention and management. The objective of this review is to describe the current landscape of haemoglobin testing in pregnancy in low and high-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

Current definitions of anaemia in pregnancy comprise a laboratory threshold of haemoglobin below which treatment is offered. Haemoglobin measurement is not sensitive in detecting iron deficiency - the most common cause of maternal anaemia. Furthermore, these historical thresholds were derived from heterogeneous populations comprising men and women. Women with anaemia in pregnancy are offered iron therapy, without testing for the underlying cause. This may be appropriate in high-income settings, where iron deficiency is the likely cause, but may not address the complex causes of anaemia in other geographical areas.

SUMMARY

Current thresholds of haemoglobin defining anaemia in pregnancy are under review. Further research and policy should focus on optimal strategies to identify women at risk of anaemia from all causes.

Trends in CD4 and viral load testing 2005 to 2018: multi-cohort study of people living with HIV in Southern Africa

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a CD4 cell count before starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) to detect advanced HIV disease, and routine viral load (VL) testing following ART initiation to detect treatment failure. Donor support for CD4 testing has declined to prioritize access to VL monitoring. We examined trends in CD4 and VL testing among adults (≥15 years of age) starting ART in Southern Africa.

METHODS

We analysed data from 14 HIV treatment programmes in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe in 2005 to 2018. We examined the frequency of CD4 and VL testing, the percentage of adults with CD4 or VL tests, and among those having a test, the percentage starting ART with advanced HIV disease (CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 ) or failing to suppress viral replication (>1000 HIV-RNA copies/mL) after ART initiation. We used mixed effect logistic regression to assess time trends adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

Among 502,456 adults, the percentage with CD4 testing at ART initiation decreased from a high of 78.1% in 2008 to a low of 38.0% in 2017; the probability declined by 14% each year (odds ratio (OR) 0.86; 95% CI 0.86 to 0.86). Frequency of CD4 testing also declined. The percentage starting ART with advanced HIV disease declined from 83.3% in 2005 to 23.5% in 2018; each year the probability declined by 20% (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.81). VL testing after starting ART varied; 61.0% of adults in South Africa and 10.7% in Malawi were tested, but fewer than 2% were tested in the other four countries. The probability of VL testing after ART start increased only modestly each year (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.06). The percentage with unsuppressed VL was 8.6%. There was no evidence of a decrease in unsuppressed VL over time (OR 1.00; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.01).

CONCLUSIONS

CD4 cell counting declined over time, including testing at the start of ART, despite the fact that many patients still initiated ART with advanced HIV disease. Without CD4 testing and expanded VL testing many patients with advanced HIV disease and treatment failure may go undetected, threatening the effectiveness of ART in sub-Saharan Africa.

Sex differences in HIV treatment outcomes and adherence by exposure groups among adults in Guangdong, China: A retrospective observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to assess sex differences in treatment outcomes and adherence comparing men who have sex with women (MSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and women who have sex with men (WSM), as well as men and women who inject drugs living with HIV on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Guangdong, China.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational cohort study with data from the National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program database. We included ART-naive patients aged 18 to 80 years who had contracted HIV through sex or injecting drugs, initiated first-line ART between January 2004 and December 2016, and had at least 60 days of follow-up. Participants were followed for five years. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate all-cause mortality. Cumulative incidence function and Cox proportional hazards models accounting for competing risks were used to evaluate disease progression to AIDS. Modified Poisson regression models were used to evaluate immunological and virological responses and loss to follow-up. Repeated measures analysis was used to evaluate regular CD4+ cell count, HIV viral load monitoring, ART adherence, side effects, and interruption of ART.

FINDINGS

We included 26,409 persons living with HIV. 21,779 (82·5%) people acquired HIV through sex (5118 WSM [23·5%], 8506 MSW [39·0%], 8175 MSM [37·5%]), and 4610 people (17·5%) through injection drug use (249 women [5·4%], 4361 men [94·6%]). Among those infected through sex, MSW had increased risks of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1·48, 95% CI 1·20-1·83), progression to AIDS (1·27, 1·09-1·47), virological failure (adjusted incidence rates ratio [aIRR] 1·27, 95% CI 1·09-1·48), and loss to follow-up (1·22, 1·10-1·35) compared to WSM. In contrast, MSM had lower risk of all-cause mortality (aHR 0·49, 95%CI 0·32-0·76), disease progression to AIDS (0·83, 0·68-1·00), and virological failure (aIRR 0·78, 95%CI 0·65-0·94), were more likely to receive regular CD4+ cell count (1·08, 1·07-1·10) and HIV viral load monitoring (1·13, 1·12-1·15), were less likely to report missing ART doses (0·54, 0·49-0·61), interrupt ART (0·34, 0·26-0·44), or be lost to follow-up (0·56, 0·49-0·65) compared to WSM. Men who inject drugs were almost twice as likely as women who inject drugs to die (aHR 1·72, 95%CI 1·03-2·85), experience disease progression to AIDS (2·05, 1·18-3·57), virological failure (aIRR 1·81, 95%CI 1·19-2·76), report ART side effects (1·78, 1·43-2·22), and interruptions in ART (2·29, 1·50-3·50).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings highlight the importance of identifying potentially at-risk MSW and promoting HIV education and testing among them. Particular attention is warranted among men who inject drugs to improve timely HIV diagnosis, drug interaction management, and retention in treatment. Additional research from rural settings is needed to assess the long-term treatment outcomes and adherence in MSM with HIV.

HIV Prevalence and Morbidity in Older Inpatients in a High HIV Prevalence Setting

Understanding of the burden of HIV infection and comorbid conditions in older adults is limited, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased longevity of HIV-positive individuals, making age-related comorbidities more likely. This study aimed to compare the demographic and disease profiles, including chronic comorbid conditions of inpatients, at least 50 years of age, by HIV status, admitted to a regional hospital in South Africa. Adults, 50 years of age and older, admitted to internal medicine wards from November 2015 to February 2016 were approached to participate. Sociodemographic data, laboratory results, anthropometric data, discharge diagnoses, and HIV status were collected and compared by HIV serostatus. Overall, 151 participants were enrolled. Their median age was 61 years (IQR: 56-68 years); 89 (58.9%) were women. Overall, 47 (31.1%) were HIV positive, of whom 10 (6.6%) were first diagnosed during the admission. HIV-positive inpatients were younger than HIV-negative patients. The leading discharge diagnoses of all participants were acute gastroenteritis (11.5%) and community-acquired pneumonia (11.5%). Hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were the leading comorbidities in both HIV-negative and HIV-positive participants. Prevalence of hypertension was 75.0% in seronegative, 59.5% in those with a prior diagnosis of HIV, and 40.0% in newly diagnosed; similarly, prevalence of T2DM was 22.1% in HIV-negative and 24.3% in known HIV-positive participants. Similar proportions died during admission; 11.3% of HIV-negative and 12.7% of HIV-positive admitted inpatients died. Almost one third of patients admitted were HIV positive. In HIV-positive older admitted to hospital, the leading cause for hospitalization was coinfections. In the ART era, irrespective of HIV status, older patients have similar age-related chronic illnesses and similar mortality rates, despite younger age at admission.

Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda

There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000-14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case.

Effect of tuberculosis screening and retention interventions on early antiretroviral therapy mortality in Botswana: a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains the most common cause of HIV-related mortality. Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is being rolled out globally to improve TB diagnostic capacity. However, previous Xpert impact trials have reported that health system weaknesses blunted impact of this improved diagnostic tool. During phased Xpert rollout in Botswana, we evaluated the impact of a package of interventions comprising (1) additional support for intensified TB case finding (ICF), (2) active tracing for patients missing clinic appointments to support retention, and (3) Xpert replacing sputum-smear microscopy, on early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality.

METHODS

At 22 clinics, ART enrollees > 12 years old were eligible for inclusion in three phases: a retrospective standard of care (SOC), prospective enhanced care (EC), and prospective EC plus Xpert (EC+X) phase. EC and EC+X phases were implemented as a stepped-wedge trial. Participants in the EC phase received SOC plus components 1 (strengthened ICF) and 2 (active tracing) of the intervention package, and participants in the EC+X phase received SOC plus all three intervention package components. Primary and secondary objectives were to compare all-cause 6-month ART mortality between SOC and EC+X and between EC and EC+X phases, respectively. We used adjusted analyses, appropriate for study design, to control for baseline differences in individual-level factors and intra-facility correlation.

RESULTS

We enrolled 14,963 eligible patients: 8980 in SOC, 1768 in EC, and 4215 in EC+X phases. Median age of ART enrollees was 35 and 64% were female. Median CD4 cell count was lower in SOC than subsequent phases (184/μL in SOC, 246/μL in EC, and 241/μL in EC+X). By 6 months of ART, 461 (5.3%) of SOC, 54 (3.2%) of EC, and 121 (3.0%) of EC+X enrollees had died. Compared with SOC, 6-month mortality was lower in the EC+X phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.97, p = 0.029). Compared with EC enrollees, 6-month mortality was similar among EC+X enrollees.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to strengthen ICF and retention were associated with lower early ART mortality. This new evidence highlights the need to strengthen ICF and retention in many similar settings. Similar to other trials, no additional mortality benefit of replacing sputum-smear microscopy with Xpert was observed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Retrospectively registered: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02538952).

Funding antiretroviral treatment for HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia prevents transmission and is inexpensive

Background The aim of this study is to estimate the reduction in new HIV infections and resultant cost outcomes of providing antiretroviral treatment (ART) through Australia's 'universal access' health scheme to all temporary residents with HIV infection living legally in Australia, but currently deemed ineligible to access subsidised ART via this scheme.

METHODS

A mathematical model to estimate the number of new HIV infections averted and the associated lifetime costs over 5 years if all HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia had access to ART and subsidised medical care was developed. Input data came from a cohort of 180 HIV-positive temporary residents living in Australia who are receiving free ART donated by pharmaceutical companies for up to 4 years.

RESULTS

Expanding ART access to an estimated total 450 HIV+ temporary residents in Australia for 5 years could avert 80 new infections. The model estimated the total median discounted (5%) cost for ART and associated care to be A$36million, while the total savings in lifetime-discounted costs for the new infections averted was A$22million.

CONCLUSIONS

It is estimated that expanded access to ART for all HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia will substantially reduce HIV transmission to their sexual partners at little additional cost. In the context of Australia's National HIV strategy and Australia's endorsement of global goals to provide universal access to ART for all people with HIV, this is an important measure to remove inequities in the provision of HIV-related treatment and care.

An optimal BMI range associated with a lower risk of mortality among HIV-infected adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in Guangxi, China

Previous studies investigating HIV-infected patients suggested a direct link between underweight and the mortality rate of AIDS. However, there was a lack of evidence showing the optimal range of initial body mass index (BMI) patients maintain during antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to evaluate associations of the BMI values pre-ART and during the entire ART duration with mortality among HIV-positive individuals. In total, 5101 HIV/AIDS patients, including 1439 (28.2%) underweight, 3047 (59.7%) normal-weight, 548 (10.7%) overweight and 67 (1.3%) obese patients, were included in this cohort. The cumulative mortality of underweight, normal-weight, and overweight were 2.4/100 person-years (95% CI 1.9–2.9), 1.1/100 person-years (95% CI 0.9–1.3), and 0.5/100 person-years (95% CI 0.1–0.9), respectively. Cumulative mortality was lower in both the normal-weight and overweight populations than in the underweight population, with an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) of 0.5 (95% CI 0.4–0.7, p < 0.001) and 0.3 (95% CI 0.1–0.6, p = 0.002), respectively. Additionally, in the 1176 patients with available viral load data, there was significant difference between the underweight and normal-weight groups after adjustment for all factors, including viral load (p = 0.031). This result suggests that HIV-infected patients in Guangxi maintaining a BMI of 19–28 kg/m², especially 24–28 kg/m², have a reduced risk of death.

Screening for Tuberculosis With Xpert MTB/RIF Assay Versus Fluorescent Microscopy Among Adults Newly Diagnosed With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Rural Malawi: A Cluster Randomized Trial (Chepetsa)

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals globally. Screening for TB at the point of HIV diagnosis with a high-sensitivity assay presents an opportunity to reduce mortality.

METHODS

We performed a cluster randomized trial of TB screening among adults newly diagnosed with HIV in 12 primary health clinics in rural Thyolo, Malawi. Clinics were allocated in a 1:1 ratio to perform either point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) or point-of-care light-emitting diode fluorescence microscopy (LED-FM) for individuals screening positive for TB symptoms. Asymptomatic participants were offered isoniazid preventive therapy in both arms. Investigators, but not clinic staff or participants, were masked to allocation. Our primary outcome was the incidence rate ratio (RR) of all-cause mortality within 12 months of HIV diagnosis.

RESULTS

Prevalent TB was diagnosed in 24 of 1001 (2.4%) individuals enrolled in clinics randomized to Xpert, compared with 10 of 841 (1.2%) in clinics randomized to LED-FM. All-cause mortality was 22% lower in the Xpert arm than in the LED-FM arm (6.7 vs 8.6 per 100 person-years; RR, 0.78 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .58-1.06]). A planned subgroup analysis suggested that participants with more advanced HIV (World Health Organization clinical stage 3 or 4) disease had lower mortality in clinics randomized to Xpert than to LED-FM (RR, 0.43 [95% CI, .22-.87]).

CONCLUSIONS

In rural Malawi, using point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF to test symptomatic patients for TB at the time of HIV diagnosis reduced all-cause 12-month mortality among individuals with advanced HIV.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01450085.

Drug susceptibility testing and mortality in patients treated for tuberculosis in high-burden countries: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance is a challenge for the global control of tuberculosis. We examined mortality in patients with tuberculosis from high-burden countries, according to concordance or discordance of results from drug susceptibility testing done locally and in a reference laboratory.

METHODS

This multicentre cohort study was done in Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Peru, and Thailand. We collected Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates and clinical data from adult patients aged 16 years or older. Patients were stratified by HIV status and tuberculosis drug resistance. Molecular or phenotypic drug susceptibility testing was done locally and at the Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria, Zurich, Switzerland. We examined mortality during treatment according to drug susceptibility test results and treatment adequacy in multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for sex, age, sputum microscopy, and HIV status.

FINDINGS

We obtained M tuberculosis isolates from 871 patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2016. After exclusion of 237 patients, 634 patients with tuberculosis were included in this analysis; the median age was 33·2 years (IQR 26·9-42·5), 239 (38%) were women, 272 (43%) were HIV-positive, and 69 (11%) patients died. Based on the reference laboratory drug susceptibility test, 394 (62%) strains were pan-susceptible, 45 (7%) monoresistant, 163 (26%) multidrug-resistant (MDR), and 30 (5%) had pre-extensively or extensively drug resistant (pre-XDR or XDR) tuberculosis. Results of reference and local laboratories were concordant for 513 (81%) of 634 patients and discordant for 121 (19%) of 634. Overall, sensitivity to detect any resistance was 90·8% (95% CI 86·5-94·2) and specificity 84·3% (80·3-87·7). Mortality ranged from 6% (20 of 336) in patients with pan-susceptible tuberculosis treated according to WHO guidelines to 57% (eight of 14) in patients with resistant strains who were under-treated. In logistic regression models, compared with concordant drug susceptibility test results, the adjusted odds ratio of death was 7·33 (95% CI 2·70-19·95) for patients with discordant results potentially leading to under-treatment.

INTERPRETATION

Inaccurate drug susceptibility testing by comparison with a reference standard leads to under-treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis and increased mortality. Rapid molecular drug susceptibility test of first-line and second-line drugs at diagnosis is required to improve outcomes in patients with MDR tuberculosis and pre-XDR or XDR tuberculosis.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss National Center for Mycobacteria.

Survival and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS: A 30-year national survey in Iran

Background:

The survival in Iranian HIV/AIDS patients based on data from Iran National HIV/AIDS Case Registry System has not been evaluated. This study assessed the survival rates and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS in Iran.

Materials and Methods:

The population in this observational study included 32168 patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS registered in Iran disease registry system between 1986 and 31 December 2015. Data until June 2016 (the cutoff date of our last data linkage) were investigated to estimate survival and related factors following HIV diagnosis.

Results:

Of registered patients, 17.7% were diagnosed at AIDS stage. By June 2016, 27.2% of study population progressed to AIDS, and 8081 (25.1%) of patients died. The survival rate was 88%, 85%, 77%, and 67% for 1, 2, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Cumulative proportion surviving was significantly lower in males than in females (P = 0.0001). A higher rate of survival was seen in female patients, who diagnosed after 2010, infected in sexual route, and had CD4 cell count more than 500, nonconfected patients with tuberculosis (TB), and those who received antiretroviral therapy (ART). Based on multivariate model, the mortality risk in female patients, those with CD4 cell count more than 500, patients who received ART, and those with TB and injection drug uses (IDUs) was higher.

Conclusion:

The survival in studied patients increased in recent time periods, and ART reduced AIDS-related mortality in these patients. The survival can be increased by focus on improvements in patient care among male patients, IDUs, and patients with TB coinfection.

Aging with HIV: what effect on mortality and loss to follow-up in the course of antiretroviral therapy? The IeDEA West Africa Cohort Collaboration

Background

Reporting mortality and lost to follow-up (LTFU) by age is essential as older HIV-positive patients might be at risk of long-term effects of living with HIV and/or taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). As age effects might not be linear and might impact HIV outcomes in the oldest more severely, people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 50-59 years and PLHIV aged >60 years were considered separately.

Setting

Seventeen adult HIV/AIDS clinics spread over nine countries in West Africa.

Methods

Data were collected within the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS West Africa Collaboration. ART-naïve PLHIV-1 adults aged >16 years initiating ART and attending ≥2 clinic visits were included (N=73,525). Age was divided into five groups: 16-29/30-39/40-49/50-59/≥60 years. The age effect on mortality and LTFU was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regressions.

Results

At month 36, 5.9% of the patients had died and 47.3% were LTFU. Patients aged ≥60 (N=1,736) and between 50-59 years old (N=6,792) had an increased risk of death in the first 36 months on ART (adjusted hazard ratio=1.66; 95% CI: 1.36-2.03 and adjusted hazard ratio=1.31; 95% CI: 1.15-1.49, respectively; reference: <30 years old). Patients ≥60 years old tend to be more often LTFU.

Conclusion

The oldest PLHIV presented the poorest outcomes, suggesting that the PLHIV aged >50 years old should not be considered as a unique group irrespective of their age. Tailored programs focusing on improving the care services for older PLHIV in Sub-Saharan Africa are clearly needed to improve basic program outcomes.

Research productivity and main publishing institutions in Côte d'Ivoire, 2000-2016

BACKGROUND

The research productivity of countries commonly grouped within sub-Saharan Africa is as diverse as their cultural, economic, linguistic, political, and social profiles. While South Africa has been the science hub on the subcontinent for decades, publishing original research articles in the thousands, Mauritania struggles to have a single publication in international indexed journals in any given year. Detailed country-specific accounts on the co-evolution of research productivity and demographic and economic indicators from sub-Saharan Africa are lacking and render an accurate evaluation and cross-country comparison of internal research progress challenging.

METHODS

We assessed the research productivity of Côte d'Ivoire, a francophone West African country that has gone through considerable socio-political unrest, for the period 2000-2016, and determined the main publishing institutions. We considered original research articles extracted from PubMed and Web of Science Core Collection, emphasizing life sciences and biomedical sciences.

RESULTS

We found the quantity of publications doubling from 4.1 to 8.5 per million population and the 'total product' - a measure for quantity and quality of published articles - rising from 0.8 to 22.1 per million population between 2000 and 2016. Since 2010 there was a marked increase in the proportion of English publications and a concomitant drop in the proportion of articles with Ivorian first and last authors. The percentage of foreign author contribution increased from 38.7% in 2000 to 71.6% in 2016, suggesting an 'internationalization' of the country's research production and output. Mixed authorship compared with 'Ivorian only' showed higher representation in journals with an official impact factor by Web of Science with proportions of 73% versus 28% for 2008 and 91% versus 45% for 2016. Two universities and university hospitals and three autonomous research institutions were consistently among the top 10 institutions publishing peer-reviewed material in three selected years (2000, 2008, and 2016). The main features of the most successful publishing institutions were research staff size, diversification of research portfolio and funding, multiple research bases across the country, and established and productive partnerships with foreign institutions.

CONCLUSION

Since the turn of the millennium, research productivity in Côte d'Ivoire has steadily grown at an above regional and global rate despite recurring economic pressures and sociopolitical unrest. We have observed benefits of internationalization throughout this current analysis reaching from improved publishing standards to increasing resilience of research institutions in times of crisis.

Estimating retention in HIV care accounting for patient transfers: A national laboratory cohort study in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews have described high rates of attrition in patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, migration and clinical transfer may lead to an overestimation of attrition (death and loss to follow-up). Using a newly linked national laboratory database in South Africa, we assessed national retention in South Africa's national HIV program.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Patients receiving care in South Africa's national HIV program are monitored through regular CD4 count and viral load testing. South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service has maintained a database of all public-sector CD4 count and viral load results since 2004. We linked individual laboratory results to patients using probabilistic matching techniques, creating a national HIV cohort. Validation of our approach in comparison to a manually matched dataset showed 9.0% undermatching and 9.5% overmatching. We analyzed data on patients initiating ART in the public sector from April 1, 2004, to December 31, 2006, when ART initiation could be determined based on first viral load among those whose treatment followed guidelines. Attrition occurred on the date of a patient's last observed laboratory measure, allowing patients to exit and reenter care prior to that date. All patients had 6 potential years of follow-up, with an additional 2 years to have a final laboratory measurement to be retained at 6 years. Data were censored at December 31, 2012. We assessed (a) national retention including all laboratory tests regardless of testing facility and (b) initiating facility retention, where laboratory tests at other facilities were ignored. We followed 55,836 patients initiating ART between 2004 and 2006. At ART initiation, median age was 36 years (IQR: 30-43), median CD4 count was 150 cells/mm3 (IQR: 81-230), and 66.7% were female. Six-year initiating clinic retention was 29.1% (95% CI: 28.7%-29.5%). After allowing for transfers, national 6-year retention was 63.3% (95% CI: 62.9%-63.7%). Results differed little when tightening or relaxing matching procedures. We found strong differences in retention by province, ranging from 74.2% (95% CI: 73.2%-75.2%) in Western Cape to 52.2% (95% CI: 50.6%-53.7%) in Mpumalanga at 6 years. National attrition was higher among patients initiating at lower CD4 counts and higher viral loads, and among patients initiating ART at larger facilities. The study's main limitation is lack of perfect cohort matching, which may lead to over- or underestimation of retention. We also did not have data from KwaZulu-Natal province prior to 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, HIV care retention was substantially higher when viewed from a national perspective than from a facility perspective. Our results suggest that traditional clinical cohorts underestimate retention.

Ten year experience with antiretroviral treatment in Cambodia: Trends in patient characteristics and treatment outcomes

BACKGROUND

Although HIV disease stage at ART initiation critically determines ART outcomes, few reports have longitudinally monitored this within Asia. Using prospectively collected data from a large ART program at Sihanouk Hospital Center of Hope in Cambodia, we report on the change in patient characteristics and outcomes over a ten-year period.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis including all adults (≥ 18 years old) starting ART from March 2003-March 2013 in a non-governmental hospital in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The cumulative incidence of death, lost to follow-up (LTFU), attrition (death or LTFU) and first line treatment failure were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Independent risk factors for these outcomes were determined using Cox regression modeling.

RESULTS

Over the ten-year period, 3581 patients initiated ART with a median follow-up time of 4.8 years (IQR 2.8-7.2). The median age was 35 years (IQR 30-41), 54% were female. The median CD4 count at ART initiation increased from 22 cells/μL (IQR 4-129) in 2003 to 218 (IQR 57-302) in 2013. Over the 10 year period, a total of 282 (7.9%) individuals died and 433 (12.1%) were defined LTFU. Program attrition (died or LTFU) was 11.1% (95% CI: 10.1%- 12.4%) at one year, 16.3% (95% CI: 15.1%-17.6%) at three years, 19.8% (95% CI: 18.5%-21.2%) at five years and 23.3% (95% CI: 21.6-25.1) at ten years. Male sex and low baseline body mass index (BMI) were associated with increased attrition. Factors independently associated with mortality included a low baseline CD4 count, older age, male sex, low baseline BMI and hepatitis B co-infection. Individuals aged above 40 years old had an increased risk of mortality but were less likely to LTFU. There were a total of 137 individuals with first line ART failure starting second line treatment. The probability of first line failure was estimated at 2.8% (95% CI: 2.3%-3.4%) at 3 years, 4.6% (95% CI: 3.9%-5.5%) at 5 years and 7.8% (95% CI 4.8%-12.5%) at ten years of ART. The probability was particularly high in the first few program years. A lower risk was observed among individuals starting ART during the 2006-2008 period. Factors independently associated with an increased risk of treatment failure included ART-experience, NVP-based ART and a baseline CD4 count below 200 cells/μL.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall program outcomes were fair, and generally compare well to other reports from the region. Despite gradually earlier initiation of ART over the ten year period, ART is still initiated at too low CD4 count levels, warranting increased efforts for early HIV diagnosis and enrolment/retention into HIV care. Tailored strategies for poor prognostic groups (older age, male, low BMI) should be designed and evaluated.

Tuberculosis mortality and the male survival deficit in rural South Africa: An observational community cohort study

BACKGROUND

Women live on average five years longer than men, and the sex difference in longevity is typically lower in populations with high mortality. South Africa-a high mortality population with a large sex disparity-is an exception, but the causes of death that contribute to this difference are not well understood.

METHODS

Using data from a demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal (2000-2014), we estimate differences between male and female adult life expectancy by HIV status. The contribution of causes of death to these life expectancy differences are computed with demographic decomposition techniques. Cause of death information comes from verbal autopsy interviews that are interpreted with the InSilicoVA tool.

RESULTS

Adult women lived an average of 10.4 years (95% confidence Interval 9.0-11.6) longer than men. Sex differences in adult life expectancy were even larger when disaggregated by HIV status: 13.1 (95% confidence interval 10.7-15.3) and 11.2 (95% confidence interval 7.5-14.8) years among known HIV negatives and positives, respectively. Elevated male mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and external injuries were responsible for 43% and 31% of the sex difference in life expectancy among the HIV negative population, and 81% and 16% of the difference among people living with HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

The sex differences in adult life expectancy in rural KwaZulu-Natal are exceptionally large, atypical for an African population, and largely driven by high male mortality from pulmonary TB and injuries. This is the case for both HIV positive and HIV negative men and women, signalling a need to improve the engagement of men with health services, irrespective of their HIV status.

Economic Costs and Health-Related Quality of Life Outcomes of HIV Treatment After Self- and Facility-Based HIV Testing in a Cluster Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

The scale-up of HIV self-testing (HIVST) in Africa is recommended, but little is known about how this novel approach influences economic outcomes following subsequent antiretroviral treatment (ART) compared with established facility-based HIV testing and counseling (HTC) approaches.

SETTING

HIV clinics in Blantyre, Malawi.

METHODS

Consecutive HIV-positive participants, diagnosed by HIVST or facility-based HTC as part of a community cluster-randomized trial (ISRCTN02004005), were followed from initial assessment for ART until 1-year postinitiation. Healthcare resource use was prospectively measured, and primary costing studies undertaken to estimate total health provider costs. Participants were interviewed to establish direct nonmedical and indirect costs over the first year of ART. Costs were adjusted to 2014 US$ and INT$. Health-related quality of life was measured using the EuroQol EQ-5D at each clinic visit. Multivariable analyses estimated predictors of economic outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 325 participants attending HIV clinics for assessment for ART, 265 were identified through facility-based HTC, and 60 through HIVST; 168/265 (69.2%) and 36/60 (60.0%), respectively, met national ART eligibility criteria and initiated treatment. The mean total health provider assessment costs for ART initiation were US$22.79 (SE: 0.56) and US$19.92 (SE: 0.77) for facility-based HTC and HIVST participants, respectively, and was US$2.87 (bootstrap 95% CI: US$1.01 to US$4.73) lower for the HIVST group. The mean total health provider costs for the first year of ART were US$168.65 (SE: 2.02) and US$164.66 (SE: 4.21) for facility-based HTC and HIVST participants, respectively, and comparable between the 2 groups (bootstrap 95% CI: -US$12.38 to US$4.39). EQ-5D utility scores immediately before and one year after ART initiation were comparable between the 2 groups. EQ-5D utility scores 1 year after ART initiation had increased by 0.129 (SE: 0.011) and 0.139 (SE: 0.027) for facility-based HTC and HIVST participants, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Once HIV self-testers are linked into HIV services, their economic outcomes are comparable to those linking to services after facility-based HTC.

Development of a National Campaign Addressing South African Men's Fears About HIV Counseling and Testing and Antiretroviral Treatment

Introduction:

South African men are less likely to get tested for HIV than women and are more likely to commence antiretroviral treatment (ART) at later stages of disease, default on treatment, and to die from AIDS compared with women. The purpose of this study was to conduct formative research into the ideational and behavioral factors that enable or create obstacles to mens' uptake of HIV counseling and testing (HCT) and ART. The study consulted men with a goal of developing a communication campaign aimed at improving the uptake of HIV testing and ART initiation among men.

Methods:

Eleven focus groups and 9 in-depth interviews were conducted with 97 male participants in 6 priority districts in 4 South African provinces in rural, peri-urban, and urban localities.

Results:

Fears of compromised masculine pride and reputation, potential community rejection, and fear of loss of emotional control (“the stress of knowing”) dominated men's rationales for avoiding HIV testing and treatment initiation.

Conclusions:

A communication campaign was developed based on the findings. Creative treatments aimed at redefining a ‘strong’ man as someone who faces his fears and knows his HIV status. The resultant campaign concept was: “positive or negative—you are still the same person.”

Predictors of attrition from care at 2 years in a prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults in Tigray, Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Ethiopia has experienced rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, as long-term retention in ART therapy is key for ART effectiveness, determinants of attrition need to be identified so appropriate interventions can be designed.

METHODS

We used data from the 'Cohort of African people Starting Antiretroviral therapy' (CASA) project, a prospective study of a cohort of HIV-infected patients who started ART in seven health facilities (HFs). We analysed the data of patients who had started first-line ART between January 2013 and December 2014. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the probability of retention at different time points. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify factors associated with attrition.

RESULTS

A total of 1198 patients were included in the study. Kaplan-Meier estimates of retention in care were 83.9%, 82.1% and 79.8% at 12, 18 and 24 months after starting ART, respectively. Attrition was mainly due to loss to follow-up, transferred-out patients and documented mortality. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model showed that male sex, CD4 count <200 cells/µL and the type of HF were significantly associated with attrition.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed attrition differences according to gender suggest that separate interventions designed for women and men should be explored. Moreover, innovative strategies to increase HIV testing should be supported to avoid CD4 levels falling too low, a factor significantly associated with higher attrition in our study. Finally, specific studies to analyse the reasons for different levels of attrition among HFs are required.

Men "missing" from population-based HIV testing: insights from qualitative research

Men’s uptake of HIV testing is critical to the success of “test and treat” strategies in generalized epidemics. This study sought to identify cultural factors and community processes that influence men’s HIV testing uptake in the baseline year of an ongoing test-and-treat trial among 334,479 persons in eastern Africa (SEARCH, NCT#01864603). Data were collected using participant observation at mobile community health campaigns (CHCs) (n = 28); focus group discussions (n = 8 groups) with CHC participants; and in-depth interviews with care providers (n = 50), leaders (n = 32), and members (n = 112) of eight communities in Kenya and Uganda. An 8-person research team defined analytical codes and iteratively refined them during data collection using grounded theoretical approaches, and textual data were coded using Atlas.ti software. Structural and cultural barriers, including men’s mobility and gender norms valorizing risk-taking and discouraging health-seeking behavior, were observed, and contributed to men’s lower participation in HIV testing relative to women. Men’s labor opportunities often require extended absences from households: during planting season, men guarded fields from monkeys from dawn until nightfall; lake fishermen traveled long distances and circulated between beaches. Men often tested “by proxy”, believing their wives’ HIV test results to be their status. Debates about HIV risks were vigorous, with many men questioning “traditional” masculine gender norms that enhanced risks. The promise of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prolong health was a motivating factor for many men to participate in testing. Flexibility in operating hours of HIV testing including late evening and weekend times along with multiple convenient locations that moved were cited as facilitating factors enhancing male participating in HIV testing. Mobile testing reduced but did not eliminate barriers to men’s participation in a large-scale “test & treat” effort. However, transformations in gender norms related to HIV testing and care-seeking are underway in eastern Africa and should be supported.

Barriers to Care and 1-Year Mortality Among Newly Diagnosed HIV-Infected People in Durban, South Africa

Background:

Prompt entry into HIV care is often hindered by personal and structural barriers. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of self-perceived barriers to health care on 1-year mortality among newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa.

Methods:

Before HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites, adults (≥18 years) were surveyed regarding perceived barriers to care including (1) service delivery, (2) financial, (3) personal health perception, (4) logistical, and (5) structural. We assessed deaths via phone calls and the South African National Population Register. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to determine the association between number of perceived barriers and death within 1 year.

Results:

One thousand eight hundred ninety-nine HIV-infected participants enrolled. Median age was 33 years (interquartile range: 27–41 years), 49% were females, and median CD4 count was 192/μL (interquartile range: 72–346/μL). One thousand fifty-seven participants (56%) reported no, 370 (20%) reported 1–3, and 460 (24%) reported >3 barriers to care. By 1 year, 250 [13%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 12% to 15%] participants died. Adjusting for age, sex, education, baseline CD4 count, distance to clinic, and tuberculosis status, participants with 1–3 barriers (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.08) and >3 barriers (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.43) had higher 1-year mortality risk compared with those without barriers.

Conclusions:

HIV-infected individuals in South Africa who reported perceived barriers to medical care at diagnosis were more likely to die within 1 year. Targeted structural interventions, such as extended clinic hours, travel vouchers, and streamlined clinic operations, may improve linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy initiation for these people.

Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in north west Ethiopia. Predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio ≥1.5 or ≤0.67 were retained to calculate the predictor score. The derivation cohort consisted of 1686 VL patients treated at an upgraded health center and the external validation cohort consisted of 404 VL patients treated in hospital. There were 99 deaths in the derivation cohort and 53 deaths in the external validation cohort. The predictors of death were: age >40 years (score +1); HIV seropositive (score +1); HIV seronegative (score -1); hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl (score +1); bleeding (score +1); jaundice (score +1); edema (score +1); ascites (score +2) and tuberculosis (score +1). The total predictor score per patient ranged from -1 to +5. A score of -1, indicated a low risk of death (1.0%), a score of 0 an intermediate risk of death (3.8%) and a score of +1 to +5, a high risk of death (10.4-85.7%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.87) in derivation, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.83) in external validation.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The overall performance of the score was good. The score can enable the early detection of VL cases at high risk of death, which can inform operational, clinical management guidelines, and VL program management. Implementation of focused strategies could contribute to optimal management and reduction of the case fatality rates.

Human immunodeficiency virus care cascade among sub-populations in Rakai, Uganda: an observational study

INTRODUCTION

To assess progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 initiative targets, we examined the HIV care cascade in the population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in rural Uganda and examined differences between sub-groups.

METHODS

Self-reports and clinical records were used to assess the proportion achieving each stage in the cascade. Statistical inference based on a χ2 test for categorical variables and modified Poisson regression were used to estimate prevalence risk ratios (PRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for enrolment into care and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART).

RESULTS

From September 2013 through December 2015, 3,666 HIV-positive participants were identified in the RCCS. As of December 2015, 98% had received HIV Counseling and Testing (HCT), 74% were enrolled in HIV care, and 63% had initiated ART of whom 92% were virally suppressed after 12 months on ART. Engagement in care was lower among men than women (enrolment in care: adjPRR 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.91; ART initiation: adjPRR 0.75, 95% CI 0.69-0.82), persons aged 15-24 compared to those aged 30-39 (enrolment: adjPRR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.82; ART: adjPRR 0.69, 95%CI 0.60-0.80), unmarried persons (enrolment: adjPRR 0.84, 95% CI 0.71-0.99; ART adjPRR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.95), and new in-migrants (enrolment: adjPRR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67-0.83; ART: adjPRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.85). This cohort achieved 98-65-92 towards the UNAIDS "90-90-90" targets with an estimated 58% of the entire HIV-positive RCCS population virally suppressed.

CONCLUSIONS

This cohort achieved over 90% in both HCT and viral suppression among ART users, but only 65% in initiating ART, likely due to both an ART eligibility criterion of <500 CD4 cells/mL and suboptimal entry into care among men, younger individuals, and in-migrants. Interventions are needed to promote enrolment in HIV care, particular for hard-to-reach sub-populations.

Mortality in the First 3 Months on Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-Positive Adults in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Meta-analysis

Previous meta-analyses reported mortality estimates of 12-month post-antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation; however, 40%-60% of deaths occur in the first 3 months on ART, a more sensitive measure of averted deaths through early ART initiation. To determine whether early mortality is dropping as treatment thresholds have increased, we reviewed studies of 3 months on ART initiation in low- to middle-income countries. Studies of 3-month mortality from January 2003 to April 2016 were searched in 5 databases. Articles were included that reported 3-month mortality from a low- to middle-income country; nontrial setting and participants were ≥15. We assessed overall mortality and stratified by year using random effects models. Among 58 included studies, although not significant, pooled estimates show a decline in mortality when comparing studies whose enrollment of patients ended before 2010 (7.0%; 95% CI: 6.0 to 8.0) with the studies during or after 2010 (4.0%; 95% CI: 3.0 to 5.0). To continue to reduce early HIV-related mortality at the population level, intensified efforts to increase demand for ART through active testing and facilitated referral should be a priority. Continued financial investments by multinational partners and the implementation of creative interventions to mitigate multidimensional complex barriers of accessing care and treatment for HIV are needed.

The Relationship Between Caffeine Intake and Immunological and Virological Markers of HIV Disease Progression in Miami Adult Studies on HIV Cohort

Although there are many studies on adverse health effects of substance use and HIV disease progression, similar studies about caffeine consumption are few. In this study, we investigated the effects of caffeine on immunological and virological markers of HIV disease progression. A convenience sample of 130 clinically stable people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy (65 consuming ≤250 mg/day and 65 consuming >250 mg/day of caffeine) were recruited from the Miami Adult Studies on HIV (MASH) cohort. This study included a baseline and 3-month follow-up visit. Demographics, body composition measures, substance use, Modified Caffeine Consumption Questionnaire (MCCQ), and CD4 count and HIV viral load were obtained for all participants. Multivariable linear regression and Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) were used to understand the effect of caffeine consumption on CD4 count and HIV viral load. The mean age of the cohort was 47.9 ± 6.4 years, 60.8% were men and 75.4% were African Americans. All participants were on ART during both the visits. Mean caffeine intake at baseline was 337.6 ± 305.0 mg/day and did not change significantly at the 3-month follow-up visit. Multivariable linear regressions after adjustment for covariates showed significant association between caffeine consumption and higher CD4 count (β = 1.532, p = 0.049) and lower HIV viral load (β = -1.067, p = 0.048). LMM after adjustment for covariates showed that the relationship between caffeine and CD4 count (β = 1.720, p = 0.042) and HIV viral load (β = -1.389, p = 0.033) continued over time in a dose-response manner. Higher caffeine consumption was associated with higher CD4 cell counts and lower HIV viral loads indicating beneficial effects on HIV disease progression. Further studies examining biochemical effects of caffeine on CD4 cell counts and viral replication need to be done in the future.

Trends in the burden of HIV mortality after roll-out of antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: an observational community cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially decreases morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV. In this study, we describe population-level trends in the adult life expectancy and trends in the residual burden of HIV mortality after the roll-out of a public sector ART programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, one of the populations with the most severe HIV epidemics in the world.

METHODS

Data come from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), an observational community cohort study in the uMkhanyakude district in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used non-parametric survival analysis methods to estimate gains in the population-wide life expectancy at age 15 years since the introduction of ART, and the shortfall of the population-wide adult life expectancy compared with that of the HIV-negative population (ie, the life expectancy deficit). Life expectancy gains and deficits were further disaggregated by age and cause of death with demographic decomposition methods.

FINDINGS

Covering the calendar years 2001 through to 2014, we obtained information on 93 903 adults who jointly contribute 535 42 8 person-years of observation to the analyses and 9992 deaths. Since the roll-out of ART in 2004, adult life expectancy increased by 15·2 years for men (95% CI 12·4-17·8) and 17·2 years for women (14·5-20·2). Reductions in pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV-related mortality account for 79·7% of the total life expectancy gains in men (8·4 adult life-years), and 90·7% in women (12·8 adult life-years). For men, 9·5% is the result of a decline in external injuries. By 2014, the life expectancy deficit had decreased to 1·2 years for men (-2·9 to 5·8) and to 5·3 years for women (2·6-7·8). In 2011-14, pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV were responsible for 84·9% of the life expectancy deficit in men and 80·8% in women.

INTERPRETATION

The burden of HIV on adult mortality in this population is rapidly shrinking, but remains large for women, despite their better engagement with HIV-care services. Gains in adult life-years lived as well as the present life expectancy deficit are almost exclusively due to differences in mortality attributed to HIV and pulmonary tuberculosis.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health.

Effects of sex and alcohol use on antiretroviral therapy outcomes in Botswana: a cohort study

AIMS

To determine alcohol use effect on HIV treatment success and whether alcohol use mediates the relation between male sex and treatment failure.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Eight HIV clinics in and near Gaborone, Botswana.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 938 HIV-infected treatment-naive adults initiating regimens containing the antiretroviral medication efavirenz between June 2009 and February 2013, including 478 (51%) males, median age 38 years, and plasma HIV RNA 4.9 log₁₀ copies/ml.

MEASUREMENTS

Primary outcome was a composite of treatment failure over 6 months including death, lost to care or plasma HIV RNA > 25 copies/ml. Exposures included alcohol use and gender.

FINDINGS

Failure in 339 (36%) participants included 40 (4%) deaths, 194 (21%) lost to care and 105 (11%) with HIV RNA > 25 copies/ml. Both hazardous alcohol use in the past year [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0, 1.9] and male sex (aOR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.5, 2.9) were associated with failure. Hazardous alcohol use in the year prior to enrollment was more common in men (57%) than women (24%), P < 0.001. There was no difference in alcohol use effect on failure between sexes (P for interaction > 0.5). Controlling for hazardous alcohol use did not change the relation between sex and failure.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol use among HIV-infected adults in Botswana appears to worsen HIV treatment outcomes. Alcohol use does not appear to have either a mediating or a moderating effect on the relation between gender and HIV treatment outcome failure.

Gaps in the Continuum of HIV Care: Long Pretreatment Waiting Time between HIV Diagnosis and Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Leads to Poor Treatment Adherence and Outcomes

Background. Criteria for antiretroviral treatment (ART) were adjusted to enable early HIV treatment for people living HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) in China in recent years. This study aims to determine how pretreatment waiting time after HIV confirmation affects subsequent adherence and outcomes over the course of treatment. Methods. A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted using treatment data from PLHIV in Yuxi, China, between January 2004 and December 2015. Results. Of 1,663 participants, 348 were delayed testers and mostly initiated treatment within 28 days. In comparison, 1,315 were nondelayed testers and the median pretreatment waiting time was 599 days, but it significantly declined over the study period. Pretreatment CD4 T-cell count drop (every 100 cells/mm³) contributed slowly in CD4 recovery after treatment initiation (8% less, P < 0.01) and increased the risk of poor treatment adherence by 15% (ARR = 1.15, 1.08–1.25). Every 100 days of extensive pretreatment waiting time increased rates of loss to follow-up by 20% (ARR = 1.20, 1.07–1.29) and mortality rate by 11% (ARR = 1.11, 1.06–1.21), based on multivariable Cox regression. Conclusion. Long pretreatment waiting time in PLHIV can lead to higher risk of poor treatment adherence and HIV-related mortality. Current treatment guidelines should be updated to provide ART promptly.