Deaths in young people aged 0-24 years in the UK compared with the EU15+ countries, 1970-2008: analysis of the WHO Mortality Database

Amenable Mortality in Children under 5: An Indicator for Identifying Inequalities in Healthcare Delivery: A Review

Universal health coverage has been proposed as a strategy to improve health in low- and middle-income countries, but this depends on a good provision of health services. Under-5 mortality (U5M) reflects the quality of health services, and its reduction has been a milestone in modern society, reducing global mortality rates by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2020. However, despite these impressive achievements, they are still insufficient, and most deaths in children under 5 can be prevented with the provision of timely and high-quality health services. The aim of this paper is to conduct a literature review on amenable (treatable) mortality in children under 5. This indicator is based on the concept that deaths from certain causes should not occur in the presence of timely and effective medical care. A systematic and exhaustive review of available literature on amenable mortality in children under 5 was conducted using MEDLINE/PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, OVID medline, Scielo, Epistemonikos, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar in both English and Spanish. Both primary sources, such as scientific articles, and secondary sources, such as bibliographic indices, websites, and databases, were used. Results: The main cause of amenable mortality in children under 5 was respiratory disease, and the highest proportion of deaths occurred in the perinatal period. Approximately 65% of avoidable deaths in children under 5 were due to amenable mortality, that is, due to insufficient quality in the provision of health services. Most deaths in all countries and around the world are preventable, primarily through effective and timely access to healthcare (amenable mortality) and the management of public health programs focused on mothers and children (preventable mortality).

Maternal socioeconomic position and inequity in child deaths: An analysis of 2012 South Korean birth cohort of 466,636 children

Background

Inequalities in child mortality occur via interactions between socio-environmental factors and their constituents. Through childhood developmental stages, we can observe changing patterns of mortality. By investigating these patterns and social inequalities by cause and developmental stage, we aim to gain insights into health policies to reduce and equalize childhood mortality.

Methods

Using vital statistics, we examined the Korean birth cohort of 2012, including all children born in 2012 up to five years of age (N = 466,636). The dependent variables were all-cause and cause-specific mortality by developmental stage (i.e., neonatal, post-neonatal, and childhood). A Cox proportional hazard regression model was built to compare child mortality according to maternal education. The distribution of inequalities in cause-specific mortality by child age was calculated using the slope index of inequality (SII).

Results

Inequalities in child mortality due to maternal education occur during the neonatal period and increase over time. After adjusting for covariates, the Cox proportional hazard models showed that "injury and external causes" (HR = 2.178; 95% CI = [1.283-3.697]) and "unknown causes" (HR = 2.299; 95% CI = [1.572-3.363]) in the post-neonatal period, and "injury and external causes" (HR = 2.153; 95% CI = [1.347-3.440]) in the childhood period significantly contributed to socioeconomic inequalities in child mortality. For each period, the leading causes of inequality were identified as follows: "congenital" (96.7%) for the neonatal period, "unknown causes" (58.2%) and "injury and external causes" (28.4%) for the post-neonatal period, and "injury and external causes" (56.5%) for the childhood period.

Conclusion

We confirmed that the main causes of death in mortality inequality vary according to child age, in accordance with the distinctive context of child development. Strengthening the health system and multisectoral efforts that consider families' and children's needs according to spatial contexts (e.g., home, community) may be necessary to address the social inequalities in child health.

A Comparison of the Burden of Thyroid Cancer Among the European Union 15+ Countries, 1990-2019: Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

The global incidence of thyroid cancer has been increasing rapidly, and this increase has had an attendant burden on health systems. However, it is unclear how the burden of this disease differs among the pre-2004 countries of the European Union (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the UK), US, Australia, Canada, and Norway (EU15+).

Objective

To assess the trends in mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2019 in EU15+ nations. Data analysis was conducted from July 11 to October 11, 2021.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Observational cross-sectional analysis of the incidence of thyroid cancer was conducted using data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. Nineteen countries of the EU15+ were included.

Exposures

Thyroid cancer.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and DALYs were extracted for individual EU15+ countries per sex for each of the years from 1990 to 2019, and mortality-to-incidence indexes were computed. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe the trends.

Results

Thirteen of 19 countries (68%) showed an average annual percentage change increase in ASIR across the study period (range, 0.2%-2.5%). Joinpoint regression analysis revealed largely plateauing ASIR trends in recent years across most EU15+ nations since 1990. Between 2011 and 2019, the estimated annual percentage change in the US was 0. Australia, Denmark, and the US were the only countries with increasing ASMR trends with positive average annual percentage changes: Australia, 0.6 (95% CI, 0.2-1.0); Denmark, 1.0 (95% CI, 0.8-1.3); and US, 0.4 (95% CI, 0.4-0.5); the remaining 16 countries showed negative trends (range, -0.2 to -2.1). Disability-adjusted life-years decreased in all EU15+ countries except Australia, Denmark, and the US.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cross-sectional analysis found that overall, the burden of thyroid cancer across EU15+ countries appears to be decreasing, evidenced by plateauing incidence rates and reductions in mortality and DALYs over the 30-year study period. However, the US and Australia appear to have increasing ASMR and DALY trends. Ongoing observation is required to monitor how changes in international clinical practice guidelines affect thyroid cancer DALYs and mortality.

Influence of atmospheric parameters on human mortality data at different geographical levels

Human mortality data are often modeled using a demographic approach as a function of time. This approach does not present an adequate fit model for the number of deaths with great variability. For this reason, additional information (social, economic and environmental) is required for complementing and improving demographic modelling. This article evaluated the association between human mortality data (segregated by age and sex) with meteorological and air pollutant covariates at three geographical levels: country, macro-climate regions and county. The modelling was based on a generalized linear modelling framework and takes into account the common characteristic of overdispersion in human mortality data through the application of negative binomial distribution. The proposed approach improved the dynamic behavior of the Farrington-like model (basic demographic model) and took into account the extreme meteorological and natural air pollution events. Notably, the proposed modelling worked well in cases where the amount of data was scarce.

Cause-specific child and adolescent mortality in the UK and EU15+ countries

OBJECTIVE

To compare cause-specific UK mortality in children and young people (CYP) with EU15+ countries (European Union countries pre-2004, Australia, Canada and Norway).

DESIGN

Mortality estimates were coded from the WHO World Mortality Database. Causes of death were mapped using the Global Burden of Disease mortality hierarchy to 22 cause groups. We compared UK mortality by cause, age group and sex with EU15+ countries in 2015 (or latest available) using Poisson regression models. We then ranked the UK compared with the EU15+ for each cause.

SETTING

The UK and EU15+ countries.

PARTICIPANTS

CYP aged 1-19.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Mortality rate per 100 000 and number of deaths.

RESULTS

UK mortality in 2015 was significantly higher than the EU15+ for common infections (both sexes aged 1-9, boys aged 10-14 and girls aged 15-19); chronic respiratory conditions (both sexes aged 5-14); and digestive, neurological and diabetes/urological/blood/endocrine conditions (girls aged 15-19). UK mortality was significantly lower for transport injuries (boys aged 15-19). The UK had the worst to third worst mortality rank for common infections in both sexes and all age groups, and in five out of eight non-communicable disease (NCD) causes in both sexes in at least one age group. UK mortality rank for injuries in 2015 was in the top half of countries for most causes.

CONCLUSIONS

UK CYP mortality is higher than a group of comparable countries for common infections and multiple NCD causes. Excess UK CYP mortality may be amenable to health system strengthening.

Editor's Choice - Trends in Lower Extremity Amputation Incidence in European Union 15+ Countries 1990-2017

OBJECTIVE

Lower extremity amputation (LEA) carries significant mortality, morbidity, and health economic burden. In the Western world, it most commonly results from complications of peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) or diabetic foot disease. The incidence of PAOD has declined in Europe, the United States, and parts of Australasia. The present study aimed to assess trends in LEA incidence in European Union (EU15+) countries for the years 1990-2017.

METHODS

This was an observational study using data obtained from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Age standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) for LEA (stratified into toe amputation, and LEA proximal to toes) were extracted from the GBD Results Tool (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) for EU15+ countries for each of the years 1990-2017. Trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2017, variable trends in the incidence of LEA were observed in EU15+ countries. For LEAs proximal to toes, increasing trends were observed in six of 19 countries and decreasing trends in nine of 19 countries, with four countries showing varying trends between sexes. For toe amputation, increasing trends were observed in eight of 19 countries and decreasing trends in eight of 19 countries for both sexes, with three countries showing varying trends between sexes. Australia had the highest ASIRs for both sexes in all LEAs at all time points, with steadily increasing trends. The USA observed the greatest reduction in all LEAs in both sexes over the time period analysed (LEAs proximal to toes: female patients -22.93%, male patients -29.76%; toe amputation: female patients -29.93%, male patients -32.67%). The greatest overall increase in incidence was observed in Australia.

CONCLUSION

Variable trends in LEA incidence were observed across EU15+ countries. These trends do not reflect previously observed reductions in incidence of PAOD over the same time period.

Mortality of children aged 5-15 years in a tertiary care center in Yaoundé, Cameroon

INTRODUCTION

Although sub-Saharan Africa accounts for only 21% of the global population of children and adolescents aged 5-15 years, 55% of deaths among children in this age group occur in this region. This seems to be related to infectious diseases. We hypothesized that besides infectious diseases, in our context, a chronic underlying condition increases mortality. Our goal was to describe the leading causes of mortality among this age group.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study in a tertiary care center in Yaoundé. We included the medical files of children who died between January 2013 and December 2017.

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality rate was 10.3 per 1000. Coma and/or convulsion was the main cause of death (70.6%), followed by severe anemia (64.7%) and respiratory distress (56.8%). We identified a chronic illness in 62.2% of cases: HIV infection (39.2%) and sickle cell disease (24.5%) were the most prevalent. The main diagnoses were severe malaria, severe sepsis, and meningitis (Cryptococcus sp. included) in 25 (n=35), 16.4 (n=27), and 10.3% (n=17) of cases, respectively.

CONCLUSION

HIV infection and sickle cell disease are the most prevalent chronic diseases related to the patients' death in the age group studied. Specific interventions focusing on this age group are recommended including intensification of impregnated bednet usage as well as HIV and sickle cell disease management.

Mortality from abdominal aortic aneurysm: trends in European Union 15+ countries from 1990 to 2017

BACKGROUND

This observational study assessed trends in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) death rates in European Union (EU) 15+ countries for the years 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study Global Health Data Exchange. Trends were analysed using joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2017, ASDRs from AAA decreased in all 19 EU15+ countries for women, and in 18 of 19 countries for men. Increasing AAA mortality was observed only for men in Greece (+5·3 per cent). The largest relative decreases in ASDR between 1990 and 2017 were observed in Australia (men -65·6 per cent, women -50·4 per cent) and Canada (men -60·8 per cent, women -48·6 per cent). Over the 28-year interval, the smallest decreases in ASDR for women were noted in Greece (-2·3 per cent) and in Italy (-2·5 per cent). In 2017, the highest mortality rates were observed in the UK for both men and women (7·5 per 100 000 and 3·7 per 100 000 respectively). The lowest ASDR was observed in Portugal for men (2·8 per 100 000) and in Spain for women (1·0 per 100 000). ASDRs for AAA in 2017 were higher for men than women in all 19 EU15+ countries. The most recent trends demonstrated increasing AAA ASDRs in 14 of 19 countries for both sexes; the increases were relatively small compared with the improvements in the preceding years.

CONCLUSION

This observational study identified decreasing mortality from AAA across EU15+ countries since 1990. The most recent trends demonstrated relatively small increases in AAA mortality across the majority of EU15+ countries since 2012.

Trends in peripheral arterial disease incidence and mortality in EU15+ countries 1990-2017

AIMS

The aim was to assess trends in peripheral arterial disease (PAD) incidence and mortality rates in European Union(15+) countries between 1990 and 2017.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This observational study used data obtained from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. Age-standardised mortality and incidence rates from PAD were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange for EU15+ countries for the years 1990-2017. Trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Between 1990 and 2017, the incidence of PAD decreased in all 19 EU15+ countries for females, and in 18 of 19 countries for males. Increasing PAD incidence was observed only for males in the United States (+1.4%). In 2017, the highest incidence rates were observed in Denmark and the United States for males (213.6 and 202.3 per 100,000, respectively) and in the United States and Canada for females (194.8 and 171.1 per 100,000, respectively). There was a concomitant overall trend for increasing age-standardised mortality rates in all EU15+ countries for females, and in 16 of 19 EU15+ countries for males between 1990 and 2017. Italy (-25.1%), Portugal (-1.9%) and Sweden (-0.6%) were the only countries with reducing PAD mortality rates in males. The largest increases in mortality rates were observed in the United Kingdom (males +140.4%, females +158.0%) and the United States (males +125.7%, females +131.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

We identify shifting burden of PAD in EU15+ countries, with increasing mortality rates despite reducing incidence. Strong evidence supports goal-directed medical therapy in reducing PAD mortality - population-wide strategies to improve compliance to optimal goal-directed medical therapy are warranted.

Association of quality of paediatric epilepsy care with mortality and unplanned hospital admissions among children and young people with epilepsy in England: a national longitudinal data linkage study

BACKGROUND

Concerns have been raised about variation in care quality and outcomes among children and young people with epilepsies in England. We aimed to investigate the association between quality of paediatric care, hospital admissions, and all-cause deaths among epilepsy patients.

METHODS

In this longitudinal data linkage study of paediatric epilepsy services in England, we linked unit-level data from round 1 (2009-11) and round 2 (2013-14) of the Epilepsy12 national clinical audit, with death registrations from the UK Office for National Statistics and data for unplanned hospital admissions from Hospital Episode Statistics. We investigated the association between unit-level performance in involving a paediatrician with epilepsy expertise, an epilepsy specialist nurse, and a paediatric neurologist (where appropriate) in round 1 and the proportion of adolescents (aged 10-18 years) with epilepsy admitted to each unit who subsequently died during the study period (April 1, 2009, to March 31, 2015). We also investigated whether change in Epilepsy12 performance between the two audit rounds was associated with changes in the standardised ratio of observed-to-expected unplanned epilepsy admissions over the same period.

FINDINGS

In 99 units with data for the analyses relating to paediatricians with epilepsy expertise and epilepsy specialist nurses, 134 (7%) of 1795 patients died during the study period, 88 (5%) of whom died after the transition to adult service. In 55 units with data for the analyses relating to paediatric neurologists, 79 (7%) of 1164 patients died, 54 (5%) of whom did so after the transition. In regression models adjusting for population, unit, and hospital activity characteristics, absolute reductions in total mortality risk (6·4 percentage points, 95% CI 0·1-12·7) and mortality risk after transition (5·7 percentage points, 0·6-10·8) were found when comparing units where all versus no eligible patients were seen by a paediatric neurologist. Units where all eligible patients were seen by a paediatric neurologist were estimated to have absolute reductions of 4·6 percentage points (0·3-8·9) in total mortality and of 4·6 percentage points (1·2-8·0) in post-transition mortality, compared with units where no or some eligible patients were seen by a paediatric neurologist. There was no significant association between performance on being seen by an epilepsy specialist nurse or by a paediatrician with epilepsy expertise and mortality. In units where access to an epilepsy specialist nurse decreased, the standardised ratio of epilepsy admissions increased by a mean of 0·21 (0·01-0·42).

INTERPRETATION

Among adolescents with epilepsy, greater involvement of tertiary specialists in paediatric care is associated with decreased all-cause mortality in the period after transition to adult services. Reduced access to an epilepsy specialist nurse was associated with an increase in paediatric epilepsy admissions.

FUNDING

The Health Foundation.

Mediating roles of preterm birth and restricted fetal growth in the relationship between maternal education and infant mortality: A Danish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic disparities in infant mortality have persisted for decades in high-income countries and may have become stronger in some populations. Therefore, new understandings of the mechanisms that underlie socioeconomic differences in infant deaths are essential for creating and implementing health initiatives to reduce these deaths. We aimed to explore whether and the extent to which preterm birth (PTB) and small for gestational age (SGA) at birth mediate the association between maternal education and infant mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a population-based cohort study to include all 1,994,618 live singletons born in Denmark in 1981-2015. Infants were followed from birth until death, emigration, or the day before the first birthday, whichever came first. Maternal education at childbirth was categorized as low, medium, or high. An inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the controlled direct effect (CDE) of maternal education on offspring infant mortality, further split into neonatal (0-27 days) and postneonatal (28-364 days) deaths, and portion eliminated (PE) by eliminating mediation by PTB and SGA. The proportion eliminated by eliminating mediation by PTB and SGA was reported if the mortality rate ratios (MRRs) of CDE and PE were in the same direction. The MRRs between maternal education and infant mortality were 1.63 (95% CI 1.48-1.80, P < 0.001) and 1.19 (95% CI 1.08-1.31, P < 0.001) for low and medium versus high education, respectively. The estimated proportions of these total associations eliminated by reducing PTB and SGA together were 55% (MRRPE = 1.27, 95% CI 1.15-1.40, P < 0.001) for low and 60% (MRRPE = 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.22, P = 0.037) for medium versus high education. The proportions eliminated by eliminating PTB and SGA separately were, respectively, 46% and 11% for low education (versus high education) and 48% and 13% for medium education (versus high education). PTB and SGA together contributed more to the association of maternal educational disparities with neonatal mortality (proportion eliminated: 75%-81%) than with postneonatal mortality (proportion eliminated: 21%-23%). Limitations of the study include the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounders for the causal mediation analysis, and the limited generalizability of the findings to other countries with varying disparities in access and quality of perinatal healthcare.

CONCLUSIONS

PTB and SGA may play substantial roles in the relationship between low maternal education and infant mortality, especially for neonatal mortality. The mediating role of PTB appeared to be much stronger than that of SGA. Public health strategies aimed at reducing neonatal mortality in high-income countries may need to address socially related prenatal risk factors of PTB and impaired fetal growth. The substantial association of maternal education with postneonatal mortality not accounted for by PTB or SGA could reflect unaddressed educational disparities in infant care or other factors.

Austerity and families with disabled children: a European survey

AIM

To describe the impact austerity measures have had on families with disabled children across Europe and on professionals providing services for them.

METHOD

Cross-sectional surveys were disseminated via professional and family networks in 32 European countries for 3 months from December 2016.

RESULTS

Families (n=731), of whom 45% met UNICEF criteria for severe poverty, and professionals (n=959) responded from 23 and 32 countries respectively. Respondents were grouped into those from countries with and without austerity. The direct and indirect impact of austerity cuts and worse working conditions were reported more often by professionals from countries with austerity, compared to those without. Most families reported services to be worse in quality than 3 years ago. Families with completely dependent disabled children said the needs of their disabled children are significantly less well met now, compared to 10 years ago.

INTERPRETATION

A decline in quality of services for disabled children was reported by most family and many professional respondents across Europe, regardless of austerity. Where implemented, austerity measures were reported to have impacted significantly on families with disabled children. What this paper adds Stigma about disability remains a challenge in many countries across Europe. Most families and many health care professionals reported worsening quality of services than 3 years ago, regardless of austerity. Austerity cuts are reported to have impacted especially negatively on families with dependent disabled children.

Infant and Youth Mortality Trends by Race/Ethnicity and Cause of Death in the United States

IMPORTANCE

The United States has higher infant and youth mortality rates than other high-income countries, with striking disparities by racial/ethnic group. Understanding changing trends by age and race/ethnicity for leading causes of death is imperative for focused intervention.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate trends in US infant and youth mortality rates from 1999 to 2015 by age group and race/ethnicity, identify leading causes of death, and compare mortality rates with Canada and England/Wales.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This descriptive study analyzed death certificate data from the US National Center for Health Statistics, Statistics Canada, and the UK Office of National Statistics for all deaths among individuals younger than 25 years. The study took place from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2015, and analyses started in September 2017.

EXPOSURES

Race/ethnicity.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Average annual percent changes in mortality rates from 1999 to 2015 and absolute rate change between 1999 to 2002 and 2012 to 2015 for each age group, race/ethnicity, and cause of death.

RESULTS

Among individuals from birth to age 24 years, 1 169 537 deaths occurred in the United States, 80 540 in Canada, and 121 183 in England/Wales from 1999 to 2015. In the United States, 64% of deaths occurred in male individuals and 52.6% occurred in white individuals (25.1% deaths occurred in black individuals and 17.9% in Latino individuals). All-cause mortality declined for all age groups (infants younger than 1 year [38.5% of deaths], children aged 1-9 years [10.6%], early adolescents aged 10-14 years [5%], late adolescents aged 15-19 years [17.7%], and young adults aged 20-24 years [28.1%]) in the United States, Canada, and England/Wales from 1999 to 2015. However, rates were highest in the United States. Within the United States, annual declines in all-cause mortality rates occurred among all age groups of black, Latino, and white individuals, except for white individuals aged 20 to 24 years, whose rates remained stable. Mortality rates declined across most major causes of death from 1999 to 2002 and 2012 to 2015, with notable declines observed for sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injury death, and homicides. Among infants, unintentional suffocation and strangulation in bed increased (difference between 2012-2015 and 1999-2002 range, 6.11-29.03 per 100 000). Further, suicide rates among Latino and white individuals aged 10 to 24 years (range, 0.21-2.63 per 100 000) and black individuals aged 10 to 19 years (range, 0.10-0.45 per 100 000) increased, as did unintentional injury deaths in white young adults (0.79 per 100 000). The rise in unintentional injury deaths is attributed to increases in drug poisonings and was also observed in black and Latino young adults.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Mortality rates in the United States have generally declined for infants and youths from 1999 to 2015 owing to reductions in sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injury death, and homicides. However, US mortality rates remain higher than Canada and England/Wales, with particularly elevated rates among black and American Indian/Alaskan Native youth. Further, there is a concerning increase in suicide and drug poisoning death rates among US adolescents and young adults.

Respiratory disease mortality in the United Kingdom compared with EU15+ countries in 1985-2015: observational study

OBJECTIVE

To compare age standardised death rates for respiratory disease mortality between the United Kingdom and other countries with similar health system performance.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

World Health Organization Mortality Database, 1985-2015.

PARTICIPANTS

Residents of the UK, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Australia, Canada, the United States, and Norway (also known as EU15+ countries).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality from all respiratory disease and infectious, neoplastic, interstitial, obstructive, and other respiratory disease. Differences between countries were tested over time by mixed effect regression models, and trends in subcategories of respiratory related diseases assessed by a locally weighted scatter plot smoother.

RESULTS

Between 1985 and 2015, overall mortality from respiratory disease in the UK and EU15+ countries decreased for men and remained static for women. In the UK, the age standardised death rate (deaths per 100 000 people) for respiratory disease mortality in the UK fell from 151 to 89 for men and changed from 67 to 68 for women. In EU15+ countries, the corresponding changes were from 108 to 69 for men and from 35 to 37 in women. The UK had higher mortality than most EU15+ countries for obstructive, interstitial, and infectious subcategories of respiratory disease in both men and women.

CONCLUSION

Mortality from overall respiratory disease was higher in the UK than in EU15+ countries between 1985 and 2015. Mortality was reduced in men, but remained the same in women. Mortality from obstructive, interstitial, and infectious respiratory disease was higher in the UK than in EU15+ countries.

Trends in epilepsy admissions in children, 1981-2013: population-based observational study using the Scottish national hospital discharge database

OBJECTIVE

To examine trends in epilepsy admissions in children from 1981 to 2013.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional, population-based study.

SETTING

Scotland.

PATIENTS

We identified admissions among children between 1981 and 2013 inclusive. Epilepsy admissions were identified from the Scottish national hospital discharge database by using relevant diagnostic codes. Primary epilepsy admissions (PEAs) were those with epilepsy as the primary discharge diagnosis, or convulsions as the primary diagnosis but with epilepsy as secondary diagnosis. All other epilepsy admissions were secondary epilepsy admissions (SEAs).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Trends in annual epilepsy and non-epilepsy admission rates, as well as sociodemographic, clinical characteristics, length of stay and readmissions of epilepsy admissions.

RESULTS

57 031 epilepsy and 3 863 809 non-epilepsy admissions were available for analysis. Overall, epilepsy and non-epilepsy admissions increased, with a greater increase in epilepsy admissions (interaction Χ² test statistic 252, p<0.00001). Elective epilepsy admissions, unlike elective non-epilepsy admissions, continually increased, but emergency epilepsy admissions increased until 2000 and showed only minor fluctuations thereafter. Increase in SEAs was more marked than PEAs (interaction Χ² test statistic 627, p<0.0001). 48% of epilepsy admissions were to children's hospitals. No substantial trends were apparent in age, gender or deprivation distribution of epilepsy admissions. There was a clear trend towards shorter length of stay.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood epilepsy admissions are increasing, at a faster rate than non-epilepsy admissions, and have changed towards shorter, more elective admissions. Many will not be to children's hospitals, and the primary reason will often not be because of epilepsy/convulsions. More, not less, epilepsy resources are needed.

Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets

BACKGROUND

The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement.

METHODS

We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0-19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

RESULTS

UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1-4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1-4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1-4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1-4 years and 15-19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented.

DISCUSSION

UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.

A Service evaluation of a hospital child death review process to elucidate understanding of contributory factors to child mortality and inform practice in the English National Health Service

OBJECTIVE

To describe a novel approach to hospital mortality meetings to elucidate understanding of contributory factors to child death and inform practice in the National Health Service.

DESIGN

All child deaths were separately reviewed at a meeting attended by professionals across the healthcare pathway, and an assessment was made of contributory factors to death across domains intrinsic to the child, family and environment, parenting capacity and service delivery. Data were analysed from a centrally held database of records.

SETTING

All child deaths in a tertiary children's hospital between 1 April 2010 and 1 April 2013.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Descriptive data summarising contributory factors to child deaths.

RESULTS

95 deaths were reviewed. In 85% cases, factors intrinsic to the child provided complete explanation for death. In 11% cases, factors in the family and environment and, in 5% cases, factors in parenting capacity, contributed to patient vulnerability. In 33% cases, factors in service provision contributed to patient vulnerability and in two patients provided complete explanation for death. 26% deaths were classified as potentially preventable and in those cases factors in service provision were more commonly identified than factors across other domains (OR: 4.89; 95% CI 1.26 to 18.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital child death review meetings attended by professionals involved in patient management across the healthcare pathway inform understanding of events leading to a child's death. Using a bioecological approach to scrutinise contributory factors the multidisciplinary team concluded most deaths occurred as a consequence of underlying illness. Although factors relating to service provision were commonly identified, they rarely provided a complete explanation for death. Efforts to reduce child mortality should be driven by an understanding of modifiable risk factors. Systematic data collection arising from a standardised approach to hospital reviews should be the basis for national mortality review processes and database development.

Changing place of death in children who died after discharge from paediatric intensive care units: A national, data linkage study

BACKGROUND

Although child mortality is decreasing, more than half of all deaths in childhood occur in children with a life-limiting condition whose death may be expected.

AIM

To assess trends in place of death and identify characteristics of children who died in the community after discharge from paediatric intensive care unit.

DESIGN

National data linkage study.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

All children resident in England and Wales when admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit in the United Kingdom (1 January 2004 and 31 December 2014) were identified in the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network dataset. Linkage to death certificate data was available up to the end of 2014. Place of death was categorised as hospital (hospital or paediatric intensive care unit) or community (hospice, home or other) for multivariable logistic modelling.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 110,328 individuals. In all, 7709 deaths occurred after first discharge from paediatric intensive care unit. Among children dying, the percentage in-hospital at the time of death decreased from 83.8% in 2004 to 68.1% in 2014; 852 (0.8%) of children were discharged to palliative care. Children discharged to palliative care were eight times more likely to die in the community than children who died and had not been discharged to palliative care (odds ratio = 8.06 (95% confidence interval = 6.50-10.01)).

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of children dying in hospital is decreasing, but a large proportion of children dying after discharge from paediatric intensive care unit continue to die in hospital. The involvement of palliative care at the point of discharge has the potential to offer choice around place of care and death for these children and families.

Responding to the changing burden of disease for children and adolescents in modern Britain: the RCPCH State of Child Health Report 2017

The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health published the State of Child Health (SOCH) 2017, summarising the changing burden of disease in UK children and young people (CYP) over the past 20 years. These data show clearly that the three great challenges of our time for CYP are obesity, mental health problems and the impact of poverty and inequality on health. In this review, we summarise key findings from SOCH 2017 and outline key responses the UK must make to improve health and well-being for its CYP.

Group clinics for young adults with diabetes in an ethnically diverse, socioeconomically deprived setting (TOGETHER study): protocol for a realist review, co-design and mixed methods, participatory evaluation of a new care model

INTRODUCTION

Young adults with diabetes often report dissatisfaction with care and have poor diabetes-related health outcomes. As diabetes prevalence continues to rise, group-based care could provide a sustainable alternative to traditional one-to-one consultations, by engaging young people through life stage-, context- and culturally-sensitive approaches. In this study, we will co-design and evaluate a group-based care model for young adults with diabetes and complex health and social needs in socioeconomically deprived areas.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This participatory study will include three phases. In phase 1, we will carry out a realist review to synthesise the literature on group-based care for young adults with diabetes. This theory-driven understanding will provide the basis for phase 2, where we will draw on experience-based co-design methodologies to develop a new, group-based care model for young adults (aged <25 years, under the care of adult diabetes services). In phase 3, we will use a researcher-in-residence approach to implement and evaluate the co-designed group clinic model and compare with traditional care. We will employ qualitative (observations in clinics, patient and staff interviews and document analysis) and quantitative methods (eg, biological markers, patient enablement instrument and diabetes distress scale), including a cost analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

National Health Service ethics approval has been granted (reference 17/NI/0019). The project will directly inform service redesign to better meet the needs of young adults with diabetes in socioeconomically deprived areas and may guide a possible cluster-randomised trial, powered to clinical and cost-effectiveness outcomes. Findings from this study may be transferable to other long-term conditions and/or age groups. Project outputs will include briefing statements, summaries and academic papers, tailored for different audiences, including people living with diabetes, clinicians, policy makers and strategic decision makers.

REGISTRATION DETAILS

PROSPERO (CRD42017058726).

Patient Safety Incidents Involving Sick Children in Primary Care in England and Wales: A Mixed Methods Analysis

BACKGROUND

The UK performs poorly relative to other economically developed countries on numerous indicators of care quality for children. The contribution of iatrogenic harm to these outcomes is unclear. As primary care is the first point of healthcare contact for most children, we sought to investigate the safety of care provided to children in this setting.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We undertook a mixed methods investigation of reports of primary care patient safety incidents involving sick children from England and Wales' National Reporting and Learning System between 1 January 2005 and 1 December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected relevant incident reports meeting prespecified criteria, and then descriptively analyzed these reports to identify the most frequent and harmful incident types. This was followed by an in-depth thematic analysis of a purposive sample of reports to understand the reasons underpinning incidents. Key candidate areas for strengthening primary care provision and reducing the risks of systems failures were then identified through multidisciplinary discussions. Of 2,191 safety incidents identified from 2,178 reports, 30% (n = 658) were harmful, including 12 deaths and 41 cases of severe harm. The children involved in these incidents had respiratory conditions (n = 387; 18%), injuries (n = 289; 13%), nonspecific signs and symptoms, e.g., fever (n = 281; 13%), and gastrointestinal or genitourinary conditions (n = 268; 12%), among others. Priority areas for improvement included safer systems for medication provision in community pharmacies; triage processes to enable effective and timely assessment, diagnosis, and referral of acutely sick children attending out-of-hours services; and enhanced communication for robust safety netting between professionals and parents. The main limitations of this study result from underreporting of safety incidents and variable data quality. Our findings therefore require further exploration in longitudinal studies utilizing case review methods.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights opportunities to reduce iatrogenic harm and avoidable child deaths. Globally, healthcare systems with primary-care-led models of delivery must now examine their existing practices to determine the prevalence and burden of these priority safety issues, and utilize improvement methods to achieve sustainable improvements in care quality.

Learning the hard way: 10 lessons for developing undergraduate curricula

The present study outlines key learning points derived from 2 years spent developing a national undergraduate curriculum for child health. Findings are sourced from analyses of a series of semi-structured musings by beleaguered educationalists and may serve to reassure others engaged in developing undergraduate curricula that it is possible to survive the process and even to produce something quite good. The authors' best advice is to do it, but don't say we didn't warn you.

Child Health Systems in the United Kingdom (England)

Child health in the United Kingdom has improved markedly over recent decades but has failed to match health gains and reductions in mortality achieved by other European countries. Child poverty and inequalities are rising in the United Kingdom. The National Health Service (NHS) is a universally accessible health service, funded by taxation and is free at the point of use. The NHS is undergoing substantial reform, aiming to improve care quality and experience, meet rising demands, and contain costs. The NHS is struggling to balance access with expertise for urgent and unscheduled care. There is increasing use of urgent and emergency care, and there are unexplained variations in outcomes. Quality of care for children and young people with chronic and long-term conditions, including transition services, is variable and sometimes poor. Many determinants of noncommunicable conditions are worsening. Key achievements include a universal service free at the point of use, providing generally accessible, and equitable care. Key challenges include increasing fragmentation of services, insufficient emphasis on preventive care, achieving an effective balance between access and expertise of care for children, and improving child health and well-being outcomes despite generally high quality inputs and high levels of spending.

Fifteen-minute consultation: public health for paediatricians-adolescent public health

Paediatricians have a key role to play in ensuring a holistic, integrated approach is taken to meeting adolescent health needs. There is increasing evidence that failure to do so can lead to poor healthcare experience, avoidable ill health and increased need for healthcare services, both in the short term and in adult life. This article aims to guide paediatricians in answering the questions 'How well are the public health and clinical needs of the adolescent population in my area being met? And how can we improve?'

Place of death in children and young people with cancer and implications for end of life care: a population-based study in England, 1993-2014

BACKGROUND

Efforts to improve end of life care (EoLC) have made tangible impacts on care in adults, including enabling more people to die at their preferred place of death (PoD), usually home or hospices. Little is known how the PoD in children and young people (CYP, ≤24 years) has changed over time, especially in the context of a series of national initiatives for EoLC improvement since the late 1990s. To inform evidence-based policy-making and service development, we evaluated the national trends of PoD and the associated factors in CYP who died with cancer.

METHODS

Population-based observational study in the National Health Service (NHS) England, 1993-2014. All non-accidental CYP deaths with cancer (N = 12,774) were extracted from the death registration database of the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

RESULTS

Hospital deaths reduced from >50 to 45 %, hospice deaths were rare but more than doubled from 6 % in 1993-2000 to 13 % in 2005-2014, and home deaths fluctuated at around 40 %. Those aged 0-19 years were more likely to die at home than young adults (adjusted proportion ratio (PRs): 1.23-1.62); haematological cancer patients or those with 2+ comorbid conditions had higher chances of hospital death (PRs for home: 0.18-0.75, hospice: 0.04-0.37); deprivation was associated with a reduced chance of home death (PRs: 0.76-0.84). The residential region affected hospice but not home deaths. The variations of PoD by cause of death, comorbid conditions and deprivation slightly decreased with time.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitals and home were the main EoLC settings for CYP with cancer. Home death rates barely changed in the past two decades; deaths in hospitals remained the most common but slightly shifted towards hospices. CYP with haematological malignancy or with comorbid conditions had persistently high hospital deaths; these cases had an even lower chance of deaths in hospices (50 %) than at home. There were deprivation- and area-related inequalities in PoD which may need service- and/or policy-level intervention. The findings highlight a need for CYP specific initiatives to enhance EoLC support and capacities both at home and in hospices.

Child Health General Practice Hubs: a service evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of an integrated child health system.

DESIGN

Mixed methods service evaluation.

SETTING AND PATIENTS

Children, young people and their families registered in Child Health General Practitioner (GP) Hubs where groups of GP practices come together to form 'hubs'.

INTERVENTIONS

Hospital paediatricians and GPs participating in joint clinics and multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings in GP practices, a component of an 'Inside-Out' change known as 'Connecting Care For Children (CC4C)'.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cases seen in clinic or discussed at MDT meetings and their follow-up needs. Hospital Episode data: outpatient and inpatient activity and A&E attendance. Patient-reported experience measures and professionals' feedback.

RESULTS

In one hub, 39% of new patient hospital appointments were avoided altogether and a further 42% of appointments were shifted from hospital to GP practice. In addition, there was a 19% decrease in sub-specialty referrals, a 17% reduction in admissions and a 22% decrease in A&E attenders. Smaller hubs running at lower capacity in early stages of implementation had less impact on hospital activity. Patients preferred appointments at the GP practice, gained increased confidence in taking their child to the GP and all respondents said they would recommend the service to family and friends. Professionals valued the improvement in knowledge and learning and, most significantly, the development of trust and collaboration.

CONCLUSIONS

Child Health GP Hubs increase the connections between secondary and primary care, reduce secondary care usage and receive high patient satisfaction ratings while providing learning for professionals.

Mortality in Children Aged 0-9 Years: A Nationwide Cohort Study from Three Nordic Countries

BACKGROUND

Mortality in children under five years has been widely studied, whereas mortality at 5-9 years has received little attention. Using unique data from national registers in three Nordic countries, we aimed to characterize mortality directionality in children aged 0 to 9 years.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The cohort study included all children born in Denmark from 1973 to 2008 (n = 2,433,758), Sweden from 1973 to 2006 (n = 3,400,212), and a random sample of 89.3% of children born in Finland from 1987 to 2007 (n = 1,272,083). Children were followed from 0 to 9 years, and cumulative mortality and mortality rates were compared by age, gender, cause of death, and calendar periods. Among the 7,105,962 children, there were 48,299 deaths during study period. From 1981-1985 to 2001-2005, all-cause mortality rates were reduced by between 34% and 62% at different ages. Overall mortality rate ratio between boys and girls decreased from 1.25 to 1.21 with the most prominent reduction in children aged 5-9 years (from 1.59 to 1.19). Neoplasms, diseases of the nervous system and transport accidents were the most frequent cause of death after the first year of life. These three leading causes of death declined by 42% (from 6.2 to 3.6 per 100,000 person years), 43% (from 3.7 to 2.1) and 62% (from 3.9 to 1.5) in boys, and 25% (from 4.1 to 3.1 per 100000 person years), 42% (from 3.4 to 1.9) and 63% (from 3.0 to 1.1) in girls, respectively. Mortality from neoplasms was the highest in each age except infants when comparing cause-specific mortality, and half of deaths from diseases of the nervous system occurred in infancy. Mortality rate due to transport accidents increased with age and was highest in boys aged 5-9 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rate in children aged 0-9 years has been decreasing with diminished difference between genders over the past decades. Our results suggest the importance of further research on mortality by causes of neoplasms, and causes of transport accidents-especially in children aged 5-9 years.

Social and economic determinants of pediatric health inequalities: the model of chronic kidney disease

Purpose of this review is to deal with priorities and strategies to significantly tackle inequalities in the management of pediatric diseases in low-middle-income countries. This issue has become a focal point of epidemiological and public health, with special reference to chronic nontransmissible diseases. We will provide our readership with an essential overview of the cultural, institutional, and political events, which have occurred over the last 20 y and which have produced the current general framework for epidemiology and public health. Then the most recent epidemiological data will be evaluated, in order to quantify the interaction between the medical components of the disease profiles and their socioeconomic determinants. Finally, a focus will be added on models of pediatric chronic kidney diseases, which are in our opinion amongst the most sensitive markers of the interplay between health and society. Collaborative, pediatrician-initiated, multicentre projects in these fields should be given priority in calls for grants supported by public agencies. The involvement of a critical mass of those working in the "fringes" of pediatric care is a final, essential mean by which significant results can be produced under the sole responsibility and research interest of centers of excellence.

Comparison of Health Care Experience and Access Between Young and Older Adults in 11 High-Income Countries

PURPOSE

Young adults (18-24 years) frequently report poorer health care access and experience than older adults. We aimed to investigate how differences between young and older adults vary across 11 high-income countries.

METHODS

A total of 20,045 participants from 11 high-income countries (i.e., Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States) participating in the Commonwealth Fund 2013 International Health Policy Survey. We compared young adults (18-24 years) with older adults (25-34; 35-49; 50-64; 65+ years) on three aspects of health care: overall satisfaction, cost barriers to access, and four indicators of consultation quality relating to adequate information, time, involvement, and explanation.

RESULTS

Across all participants, young adults reported significantly worse overall satisfaction (63.6% vs. 70.3%; p < .001) and more frequent cost barriers (21.3% vs. 15.2%; p < .001) than older adults. Country-level analyses showed that young adults reported lower overall satisfaction than older adults in five of 11 countries (Australia, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, United States) and more frequent cost barriers in six of 11 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, United States). In five countries (Australia, Canada, France, Norway, Switzerland), most patient experience indicators were less positive among young adults than those among older adults. In three countries (Netherlands, New Zealand, United Kingdom), there was no significant difference between young and older adults on any indicator.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between age and health care access/experience varied markedly between countries, suggesting that poor access and experience among young adults is not inevitable and may be amenable to policy/practice interventions.

Why do young children die in the UK? A comparison with Sweden

BACKGROUND

The UK has a high child mortality rate, whereas Sweden's is lower (under-five mortality rates of five and three, respectively, in 2011).We therefore wished to compare causes of death in young children aged <5 years in the two countries.

METHODS

Under-five mortality data were obtained from the Office of National Statistics for each of the individual countries within the UK for 3 years (2006-2008). Data for Sweden for the same period were obtained from the National Board of Health and Welfare. Causes of death were compared statistically using χ(2) test.

RESULTS

There were a total of 14,104 and 1036 deaths aged <5 years in the UK and Sweden, respectively, between 2006 and 2008. The total numbers of live births during the same period were 2,295,964 and 315,884, respectively. The overall mortality rate in the UK was 614 per 100,000 children which was significantly higher than that in Sweden (328; p<0.001). The mortality rates for the three main causes of death in the UK (prematurity, congenital malformations and infections) were 138.5, 112.1 and 63.9, respectively, per 100,000 children. The mortality rates for the same three conditions in Sweden were 10.1, 88.6 and 34.8, respectively. They were all significantly more frequent in the UK than in Sweden (p<0.001), as were the majority of the disorders. Treatable infections, such as pneumonia, meningitis and septicaemia, in both neonates and young children had significantly higher mortality rates in the UK than in Sweden (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In order to reduce the mortality rate in the UK, we need to try and reduce the causes of prematurity. Additionally, the care of children with treatable infections should be reviewed to understand ways in which to reduce the differences in mortality seen.

Trends and socioeconomic disparities in preadolescent's health in the UK: evidence from two birth cohorts 32 years apart

BACKGROUND

Compared to children and adults, little is known about changes in adolescent health over time. This study profiles the health of preadolescents in two distinct time periods, 1980 and 2012.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of the British Cohort Study and the Millennium Cohort Study for preadolescents mostly aged between 10 and 11.5 years (range 9.75-13 years). The prevalence/average of, and socioeconomic gradients in, the following were compared between 1980 and 2012; general health problems, anthropometrics, allergic conditions, infectious diseases, health service use, smoking and parental smoking behaviour and maternal adiposity. Socioeconomic status was measured by familial income (3 groups).

RESULTS

There were decreases in the proportion of hospital admissions (Δ=-0.10(-0.09:-0.11)) smoking (Δ=-0.12(-0.11:-0.13)), parental smoking (mother: (Δ=-0.19(-0.18:-0.21)) father: (Δ=-0.35(-0.34:-0.37), infectious diseases (measles: (Δ=-0.46(-0.45:-0.47)) whooping cough: (Δ=-0.07(-0.06:-0.07)) and hearing problems (Δ=-0.04(-0.03:-0.05)). There were no changes in limiting long-standing illness (Δ=0.00 (-0.00:0.00)), or the proportion of children having two or more accidents requiring medical attention (Δ=-0.02(-0.00:-0.02)). There were increases in the proportion overweight (Δ=0.18(0.17:0.19)), maternal overweight(Δ=0.22(0.21:0.23)) and obesity(Δ=0.12(0.11:0.13)), height for age(Δ=0.47(0.44:0.49)), weight for age (Δ=0.68(0.65:0.71)), proportion reporting chicken pox (Δ=0.28(0.27:0.29)), allergic conditions (eczema Δ=0.19(0.18:0.20)), asthma Δ=0.12(0.11:0.13), hay fever Δ=0.15(0.14:0.16)) and wearing glasses (Δ=0.08(0.07:0.09)). There were increases in socioeconomic gradients for limiting long-standing illness, smoking, overweight, weight for age, height for age, wearing glasses, asthma and the onset of puberty.

CONCLUSIONS

There have been reductions in infectious diseases and tobacco exposure among British preadolescents, but overweight and allergic conditions have risen dramatically. Children from deprived families have benefitted least from improvements in health status, and have experienced the largest increases in health risks.

How Has the Age-Related Process of Overweight or Obesity Development Changed over Time? Co-ordinated Analyses of Individual Participant Data from Five United Kingdom Birth Cohorts

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of information on secular trends in the age-related process by which people develop overweight or obesity. Utilizing longitudinal data in the United Kingdom birth cohort studies, we investigated shifts over the past nearly 70 years in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and development of overweight or obesity across childhood and adulthood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The sample comprised 56,632 participants with 273,843 BMI observations in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; ages 2-64 years), 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; 7-50), 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS; 10-42), 1991 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; 7-18), or 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; 3-11). Growth references showed a secular trend toward positive skewing of the BMI distribution at younger ages. During childhood, the 50th centiles for all studies lay in the middle of the International Obesity Task Force normal weight range, but during adulthood, the age when a 50th centile first entered the overweight range (i.e., 25-29.9 kg/m2) decreased across NSHD, NCDS, and BCS from 41 to 33 to 30 years in males and 48 to 44 to 41 years in females. Trajectories of overweight or obesity showed that more recently born cohorts developed greater probabilities of overweight or obesity at younger ages. Overweight or obesity became more probable in NCDS than NSHD in early adulthood, but more probable in BCS than NCDS and NSHD in adolescence, for example. By age 10 years, the estimated probabilities of overweight or obesity in cohorts born after the 1980s were 2-3 times greater than those born before the 1980s (e.g., 0.229 [95% CI 0.219-0.240] in MCS males; 0.071 [0.065-0.078] in NSHD males). It was not possible to (1) model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity, because there were few obesity cases at young ages in the earliest-born cohorts, or (2) consider ethnic minority groups. The end date for analyses was August 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate how younger generations are likely to accumulate greater exposure to overweight or obesity throughout their lives and, thus, increased risk for chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the absence of effective intervention, overweight and obesity will have severe public health consequences in decades to come.

Adolescents and young adults on the acute medical unit: how might we do it better?

It is a common perception that young people do not become ill and do not pose a challenge in the unscheduled healthcare setting. The research, however, increasingly suggests that young adults and adolescents (YAAs) are a highly vulnerable group, with poorer outcomes than either older adults or children, and distinct healthcare needs. The acute medical unit (AMU) setting poses particular challenges to the care of this patient group. To improve care and patient experience, adult clinicians need to look critically at their services and seek to adapt them to meet the needs of YAAs. This requires cooperation and linkage with local paediatric and emergency services, as well as the input of other relevant stakeholder groups. Staff on AMUs also need to develop the knowledge, skills and attitudes to communicate effectively and address the developmental and health needs of YAAs and their parents/carers at times of high risk and stress.