Analysis of clinical benefit, harms, and cost-effectiveness of screening women for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Evaluating growth patterns of abdominal aortic aneurysms among women

OBJECTIVE

Though initially protected from vessel dilation by estrogen, women may experience rapid abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth post-menopause. The rate of growth has been poorly defined in prior literature. Here, we describe aneurysm growth in a cohort of women found through an AAA screening program.

METHODS

Women with AAAs were retrospectively identified. Aortic imaging was reviewed, and measurements of maximum transverse and anterior-posterior diameters were completed. Growth was stratified by the type of aortic pathology (fusiform aneurysm, aortic ectasia, dissection with aneurysmal degeneration, saccular aneurysm) as well as size category (<3 cm, 3.0-3.9 cm, 4.0-4.9 cm, ≥5.0 cm) at diagnosis.

RESULTS

A cohort of 488 women was identified; 286 had multiple scans for review. The mean age of the entire cohort was 75 ± 9.9 years. Stratified by type of pathology, the mean age was 76 ± 8.9 years in patients with a fusiform AAA, 74 ± 9.8 years in ectasia, 65 ± 13.7 years in dissection, and 76 ± 5.6 years in saccular aneurysms. The maximum growth was highest in women with fusiform AAAs, followed by dissection, ectasia, and saccular pathology (9.7 mm, 7.0 mm, 3.0 mm, and 2.2 mm, respectively; P < .001). Comparing mean growth by year, the highest mean growth was in fusiform AAAs (3.6 mm vs 1.75 mm in dissection; P < .001). The Shapiro-Wilk test demonstrated that mean growth per year was non-normally distributed with a right skew. Stratified by aortic diameter at the time of diagnosis, mean growth/year increased with increasing size at diagnosis in fusiform AAAs and dissection (0.91 mm for <3 cm, 2.34 mm for 3.0-3.9 cm, 2.49 mm for 4.0-4.9 mm, and 6.16 mm for ≥5.0 cm in patients with fusiform AAAs vs 0.57 mm, 0.94 mm, 1.87 mm, and 2.66 mm, respectively, for patients with dissection). Smoking history was associated with a higher mean growth/year (2.6 mm vs 3.3 mm; P < .001). Conversely, patients with a family history of AAA had a lower mean growth/year (3.2 mm vs 1.5 mm; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of aneurysm growth in women varies based on pathology and aneurysm size, and women experience rapid aneurysm growth at sizes greater than 4.5 cm. Current screening guidelines are inadequate, and our results demonstrate that the rate of growth of fusiform aneurysms in women is faster than in men at a smaller size and may warrant more frequent surveillance than current Society for Vascular Surgery recommendations to prevent risk of increased morbidity.

Thirty-Nine Percent of Patients with a Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) Have an Incidentally Detected AAA Prior to Rupture

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening has been offered to 65-year-old men living in Oslo, Norway, since May 2011. A significant number of AAA-related deaths occurred in individuals who are not eligible for screening. The primary aim of this study was to describe the group of patients admitted to Oslo University Hospital with a ruptured AAA after the implementation of the local AAA screening project. The following parameters were investigated: AAA detection before rupture, surveillance status, eligibility for screening, and comorbidities. We also sought to compare outcomes (repair rates and 30-day mortality) between patients with and without an incidentally detected AAA prior to rupture.

METHODS

This cohort study included patients admitted acutely to Oslo University Hospital due to a symptomatic or ruptured AAA in the period January 2011 to December 2022. Data on demographics, prior AAA detection, surveillance status, treatment, and mortality were collected retrospectively through electronic medical records.

RESULTS

We identified 200 patients with a symptomatic or ruptured AAA, among which 79 (40%) had an AAA detected before rupture-one (1%) through screening and 78 (39%) incidentally. Up to 30% of the incidentally detected AAAs were not under any surveillance. Six patients were found eligible for screening: one had attended, three were non-attenders, and two had not been invited. Patients with an incidentally detected AAA before rupture had a more advanced age and a significantly higher degree of comorbidities than patients without a previously detected AAA, and the repair rates in these groups were 56% and 84%, respectively (P < 0.001). Adjusted for comorbidities and risk factors, the odds ratio for repair among patients with incidentally detected AAA was 0.56 (P = 0.292). The 30-day mortality was not significantly different between the two groups (P = 0.097).

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients with a ruptured AAA were not eligible for screening, but 39% of the patients had an incidentally detected AAA prior to rupture. Standardized reporting and follow-up of incidentally detected AAAs is thus identified as an additional measure to organized screening in the effort to reduce AAA-related mortality.

Machine learning algorithms for the prognostication of abdominal aortic aneurysm progression: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), often characterized by an abdominal aortic diameter over 3.0 cm, is managed through screening, surveillance, and surgical intervention. AAA growth can be heterogeneous and rupture carries a high mortality rate, with size and certain risk factors influencing rupture risk. Research is ongoing to accurately predict individual AAA growth rates for personalized management. Machine learning, a subset of artificial intelligence, has shown promise in various medical fields, including endoleak detection post-EVAR. However, its application for predicting AAA growth remains insufficiently explored, thus necessitating further investigation. Subsequently, this paper aims to summarize the current status of machine learning in predicting AAA growth.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A systematic database search of Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane, PubMed and Google Scholar from inception till December 2022 was conducted of original articles that discussed the use of machine learning in predicting AAA growth using the aforementioned databases.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Overall, 2742 articles were extracted, of which seven retrospective studies involving 410 patients were included using a predetermined criteria. Six out of seven studies applied a supervised learning approach for their machine learning (ML) models, with considerable diversity observed within specific ML models. The majority of the studies concluded that machine learning models perform better in predicting AAA growth in comparison to reference models. All studies focused on predicting AAA growth over specified durations. Maximal luminal diameter was the most frequently used indicator, with alternative predictors being AAA volume, ILT (intraluminal thrombus) and flow-medicated diameter (FMD).

CONCLUSIONS

The nascent field of applying machine learning (ML) for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) expansion prediction exhibits potential to enhance predictive accuracy across diverse parameters. Future studies must emphasize evidencing clinical utility in a healthcare system context, thereby ensuring patient outcome improvement. This will necessitate addressing key ethical implications in establishing prospective studies related to this topic and collaboration among pivotal stakeholders within the AI field.

Aortic Size Index Versus Aortic Diameter in the Prediction of Rupture in Women With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) pose significant challenges in clinical management, particularly in female patients, whose unique anatomical and physiological characteristics influence rupture risk. While aortic diameter (AD) has traditionally been the primary metric for predicting rupture, its limitations, especially in women, have spurred exploration into alternative measures such as the aortic size index (ASI). This review examines the anatomy and physiology of AAAs in women, gender-specific challenges in diagnosis and management, and the comparative effectiveness of ASI versus AD in predicting rupture risk. ASI, calculated as AD divided by body surface area (BSA), offers a more nuanced assessment by adjusting for individual body size differences, potentially mitigating gender disparities in rupture rates. Comparative analyses indicate ASI's superiority in predicting adverse aortic events, particularly in women, thereby advocating for its integration into clinical practice to improve patient outcomes. Additionally, emerging techniques such as 3D volumetric measurements and biomechanical assessments show promise in enhancing rupture risk prediction, heralding a shift toward more personalized and effective management strategies for AAA patients.

Trends in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair Incidence, Comorbidity, Treatment, and Mortality: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study, 1996-2018

Background

Significant changes in Western populations' abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) epidemiology have been reported following the introduction of screening, endovascular AAA repair, and reduced tobacco consumption. We report incidence and mortality of AAA repair in Denmark from 1996 to 2018, where AAA screening was not implemented.

Methods

Nationwide cohort study of prospective data from population-based Danish registries covering 1996 to 2018. We identified 15,395 patients undergoing first-time AAA repair using the Danish Vascular Registry. Comorbidity was assessed by Charlson's Comorbidity Index (CCI). Incidence rate (IR) ratios and mortality rate ratios (MRR) were estimated by multivariable Poisson and Cox regression, respectively.

Results

Overall AAA repair IR decreased by 24% from 1996 through 2018, mainly reflecting a 53% IR reduction in ruptured AAA repairs in men. Overall, the IR decreased 52-63% in age groups below 70 years and increased 81% among octogenarians. The proportion of intact AAAs repaired endovascularly increased from 2% in 1996-1999 to 42% in 2015-2018. For both ruptured and intact AAAs the CCI score increased by 0.9% annually independently of age and sex. The adjusted five-year MRR in 2016-2018 vs.1996-2000 was 0.46 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39-0.54) following ruptured and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.44-0.59) following intact AAA repair.

Conclusion

In Denmark, overall AAA repair incidence decreased between 1996 and 2018, primarily reflecting a reduction among males and a shift to an older population requiring intervention. These trends mirror changes in tobacco consumption in Denmark. Regardless of age and comorbidity, AAA repair mortality decreased markedly during the study period.

One-time screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Ontario, Canada: a model-based cost-utility analysis

BACKGROUND

Screening programs for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are not available in Canada. We sought to determine the effectiveness and costutility of AAA screening in Ontario.

METHODS

We compared one-time ultrasonography-based AAA screening for people aged 65 years to no screening using a fully probabilistic Markov model with a lifetime horizon. We estimated life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), AAA-related deaths, number needed to screen to prevent 1 AAA-related death and costs (in Canadian dollars) from the perspective of the Ontario Ministry of Health. We retrieved model inputs from literature, Statistics Canada, and the Ontario Case Costing Initiative.

RESULTS

Screening reduced AAA-related deaths by 84.9% among males and 81.0% among females. Compared with no screening, screening resulted in 0.04 (18.96 v. 18.92) additional life-years and 0.04 (14.95 v. 14.91) additional QALYs at an incremental cost of $80 per person among males. Among females, screening resulted in 0.02 (21.25 v. 21.23) additional life-years and 0.01 (16.20 v. 16.19) additional QALYs at an incremental cost of $11 per person. At a willingness-to-pay of $50 000 per year, screening was cost-effective in 84% (males) and 90% (females) of model iterations. Screening was increasingly cost-effective with higher AAA prevalence.

INTERPRETATION

Screening for AAA among people aged 65 years in Ontario was associated with fewer AAA-related deaths and favourable cost-effectiveness. To maximize QALY gains per dollar spent and AAA-related deaths prevented, AAA screening programs should be designed to ensure that populations with high prevalence of AAA participate.

Editor's Choice -- European Society for Vascular Surgery (ESVS) 2024 Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Abdominal Aorto-Iliac Artery Aneurysms

OBJECTIVE

The European Society for Vascular Surgery (ESVS) has developed clinical practice guidelines for the care of patients with aneurysms of the abdominal aorta and iliac arteries in succession to the 2011 and 2019 versions, with the aim of assisting physicians and patients in selecting the best management strategy.

METHODS

The guideline is based on scientific evidence completed with expert opinion on the matter. By summarising and evaluating the best available evidence, recommendations for the evaluation and treatment of patients have been formulated. The recommendations are graded according to a modified European Society of Cardiology grading system, where the strength (class) of each recommendation is graded from I to III and the letters A to C mark the level of evidence.

RESULTS

A total of 160 recommendations have been issued on the following topics: Service standards, including surgical volume and training; Epidemiology, diagnosis, and screening; Management of patients with small abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), including surveillance, cardiovascular risk reduction, and indication for repair; Elective AAA repair, including operative risk assessment, open and endovascular repair, and early complications; Ruptured and symptomatic AAA, including peri-operative management, such as permissive hypotension and use of aortic occlusion balloon, open and endovascular repair, and early complications, such as abdominal compartment syndrome and colonic ischaemia; Long term outcome and follow up after AAA repair, including graft infection, endoleaks and follow up routines; Management of complex AAA, including open and endovascular repair; Management of iliac artery aneurysm, including indication for repair and open and endovascular repair; and Miscellaneous aortic problems, including mycotic, inflammatory, and saccular aortic aneurysm. In addition, Shared decision making is being addressed, with supporting information for patients, and Unresolved issues are discussed.

CONCLUSION

The ESVS Clinical Practice Guidelines provide the most comprehensive, up to date, and unbiased advice to clinicians and patients on the management of abdominal aorto-iliac artery aneurysms.

Prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in first-degree relatives: detecting AAA in adult offspring of AAA patients

BACKGROUND

First-degree relatives of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) may have an increased risk of developing the disease. The primary aim was to report the prevalence of AAA in adult male and female offspring of patients with AAA. The secondary aim was to explore the efficiency of a registry-based detection route, and the third aim was to report contemporary prevalence in the population.

METHODS

Adult offspring of individuals with AAA and matched controls were identified through national registries. The examination included questionnaires and ultrasound examinations of the infrarenal aorta. Aortic pathology was defined as an aortic diameter ≥25 mm, AAA ≥30 mm.

RESULTS

The participation rate among male and female adult offspring was 64% (350/543) and 69% (402/583), respectively. A lower participation rate was found in male and female controls (51% and 52%). No difference in prevalence of AAA was observed between male adult offspring and controls (0.9%, c.i. 0.2 to 2.3%) or in the female population (prevalence of 0.2% in adult offspring and controls). Aortic pathology and previously diagnosed AAA were detected in 5.3% (c.i. 3.3 to 8.0%) of male adult offspring and 2.3% (c.i. 1.1 to 4.2%) in controls. Aortic pathology was more prevalent among adult offspring of females with AAA.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of AAA in the general population is low, but aortic pathology is notably higher among male first-degree relatives. Increased awareness should be directed towards individuals with a possible hereditary predisposition, particularly offspring of females with AAA and older smokers. Risk factor-based targeted screening of adult offspring of patients with AAA after registry-based detection should be further explored.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT4623268.

Comprehensive framework of factors accounting for worse aortic aneurysm outcomes in females: A scoping review

Sex-based outcome studies have consistently documented worse results for females undergoing care for abdominal aortic aneurysms. This review explores the underlying factors that account for worse outcomes in the females sex. A scoping review of studies reporting sex-based disparities on abdominal aortic aneurysms was performed. The review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews. Factors that account for worse outcomes in the females sex were identified, grouped into themes, and analyzed. Key findings of each study are reported and a comprehensive framework of these factors is presented. A total of 35 studies were identified as critical in highlighting sex-based disparities in care of patients with aortic aneurysms. We identified the following 10 interrelated themes in the chain of aneurysm care that account for differential outcomes in females: natural history, risk factors, pathobiology, biomechanics, screening, morphology, device design and adherence to instructions for use, technique, trial enrollment, and social determinants. Factors accounting for worse outcomes in the care of females with aortic aneurysms were identified and described. Some factors are immediately actionable, such as screening criteria, whereas device design improvement will require further research and development. This comprehensive framework of factors affecting care of aneurysms in females should serve as a blueprint to develop education, outreach, and future research efforts to improve outcomes in females.

Disturbed hemodynamics and oxidative stress interaction in endothelial dysfunction and AAA progression: Focus on Nrf2 pathway

Hemodynamic shear stress is one of the major factors that are involved in the pathogenesis of many cardiovascular diseases including atherosclerosis and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), through its modulatory effect on the endothelial cell's redox homeostasis and mechanosensitive gene expression. Among important mechanisms, oxidative stress, endoplasmic reticulum stress activation, and the subsequent endothelial dysfunction are attributed to disturbed blood flow and low shear stress in the vascular curvature and bifurcations which are considered atheroprone regions and aneurysm occurrence spots. Many pathways were shown to be involved in AAA progression. Of particular interest from recent findings is, the (Nrf2)/Keap-1 pathway, where Nrf2 is a transcription factor that has antioxidant properties and is strongly associated with several CVDs, yet, the exact mechanism by which Nrf2 alleviates CVDs still to be elucidated. Nrf2 expression is closely affected by shear stress and was shown to participate in AAA. In the current review paper, we discussed the link between disturbed hemodynamics and its effect on Nrf2 as a mechanosensitive gene and its role in the development of endothelial dysfunction which is linked to the progression of AAA.

Health Economic Research Assessing the Value of Early Detection of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most prominent cause of death worldwide and has a major impact on healthcare budgets. While early detection strategies may reduce the overall CVD burden through earlier treatment, it is unclear which strategies are (most) efficient.

AIM

This systematic review reports on the cost effectiveness of recent early detection strategies for CVD in adult populations at risk.

METHODS

PubMed and Scopus were searched to identify scientific articles published between January 2016 and May 2022. The first reviewer screened all articles, a second reviewer independently assessed a random 10% sample of the articles for validation. Discrepancies were solved through discussion, involving a third reviewer if necessary. All costs were converted to 2021 euros. Reporting quality of all studies was assessed using the CHEERS 2022 checklist.

RESULTS

In total, 49 out of 5552 articles were included for data extraction and assessment of reporting quality, reporting on 48 unique early detection strategies. Early detection of atrial fibrillation in asymptomatic patients was most frequently studied (n = 15) followed by abdominal aortic aneurysm (n = 8), hypertension (n = 7) and predicted 10-year CVD risk (n = 5). Overall, 43 strategies (87.8%) were reported as cost effective and 11 (22.5%) CVD-related strategies reported cost reductions. Reporting quality ranged between 25 and 86%.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence suggests that early CVD detection strategies are predominantly cost effective and may reduce CVD-related costs compared with no early detection. However, the lack of standardisation complicates the comparison of cost-effectiveness outcomes between studies. Real-world cost effectiveness of early CVD detection strategies will depend on the target country and local context.

REGISTRATION OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

CRD42022321585 in International Prospective Registry of Ongoing Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) submitted at 10 May 2022.

Artificial Intelligence Application to Screen Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Using Computed tomography Angiography

The aim of our study is to validate a totally automated deep learning (DL)-based segmentation pipeline to screen abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) in computed tomography angiography (CTA) scans. We retrospectively evaluated 73 thoraco-abdominal CTAs (48 AAA and 25 control CTA) by means of a DL-based segmentation pipeline built on a 2.5D convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture to segment lumen and thrombus of the aorta. The maximum aortic diameter of the abdominal tract was compared using a threshold value (30 mm). Blinded manual measurements from a radiologist were done in order to create a true comparison. The screening pipeline was tested on 48 patients with aneurysm and 25 without aneurysm. The average diameter manually measured was 51.1 ± 14.4 mm for patients with aneurysms and 21.7 ± 3.6 mm for patients without aneurysms. The pipeline correctly classified 47 AAA out of 48 and 24 control patients out of 25 with 97% accuracy, 98% sensitivity, and 96% specificity. The automated pipeline of aneurysm measurements in the abdominal tract reported a median error with regard to the maximum abdominal diameter measurement of 1.3 mm. Our approach allowed for the maximum diameter of 51.2 ± 14.3 mm in patients with aneurysm and 22.0 ± 4.0 mm in patients without an aneurysm. The DL-based screening for AAA is a feasible and accurate method, calling for further validation using a larger pool of diagnostic images towards its clinical use.

The Fate of Patients Opportunistically Screened for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms During Echocardiogram or Arterial Duplex Scans

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long term outcomes of individuals who attended for transthoracic echocardiograms (TTEs) or lower limb arterial duplex scans (LLADS) and were opportunistically screened for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA).

METHODS

Follow up of a prospective single centre pilot cohort study conducted between December 2012 and September 2014 at a tertiary vascular centre in the United Kingdom. Men and Women aged 65 and over were invited to undergo AAA screening when attending hospital for TTE or LLADS. Screening was performed by ultrasonographic examination of the abdomen at the end of their planned scans. AAA was defined as an abdominal aorta outer wall to outer wall anteroposterior diameter of 30 mm or more. Patients were excluded if they had a known AAA or previous abdominal aorta intervention. Follow up outcomes were evaluated in December 2020.

RESULTS

762 patients were enrolled in this study; 486 had TTE and 276 patients had LLADS. The overall incidence of AAA was 54 (7.1%) in the combined cohort, 25 (5.1%) in the TTE group, and 29 (10.5%) in the LLADS group. After a median 7.6 years, two of the 54 AAAs received intervention in the form of endovascular repair. Three others reached treatment threshold but were managed conservatively. The overall intervention rate was 3.7% of detected AAAs. Adjusted mortality rates in those with AAA vs. without was 64.8% and 36%, respectively (hazard ratio [HR] 2.02, p < .001). Diabetes (HR 1.35, p = .015) and older age (HR 1.18, p = .17) were the other factors associated with death.

CONCLUSION

AAA is associated with a significantly increased mortality rate. Populations attending hospital for TTE or LLADS demonstrate a higher prevalence of AAA than population based screening; however, the proportion offered AAA intervention was low. Further research into opportunistic screening should target those more likely to undergo AAA repair, unless other interventions are demonstrated, to reduce the general increased mortality in AAA patients.

Relevance of the Viborg Population Based Screening Programme (VISP) for Cardiovascular Conditions Among 67 Year Olds: Attendance Rate, Prevalence, and Proportion of Initiated Cardiovascular Medicines Stratified By Sex

OBJECTIVE

To report sex specific overall attendance rate, prevalence of screen detected cardiovascular conditions, proportion of unknown conditions before screening, and proportion initiating prophylactic medicine among 67 year olds in Denmark.

DESIGN

Cross sectional cohort study.

METHODS

Since 2014, all 67 year olds in Viborg, Denmark, have been invited to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), carotid plaque (CP), hypertension, cardiac disease, and type 2 diabetes. Individuals with AAA, PAD, and or CP are recommended cardiovascular prophylaxis. Combining data with registries has facilitated estimation of unknown screen detected conditions. Up to August 2019, 5 505 had been invited; registry data were available for the first 4 826 who were invited.

RESULTS

The attendance rate was 83.7%, without sex difference. Screen detected prevalence was significantly lower among women than men: AAA, 5 (0.3%) vs. 38 (1.9%) (p < .001); PAD, 90 (4.5%) vs. 134 (6.6%) (p = .011); CP, 641 (31.8%) vs. 907 (44.8%) (p < .001); arrhythmia, 26 (1.4%) vs. 77 (4.2%) (p < .001); blood pressure ≥ 160/100 mmHg, 277 (13.8%) vs. 346 (17.1%) (p = .004); and HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol, 155 (7.7%) vs. 198 (9.8%) (p = .019), respectively. Pre-screening proportions of unknown conditions were particularly high for AAA (95.4%) and PAD (87.5%). AAA, PAD, and or CP were found in 1 623 (40.2%), of whom 470 (29.0%) received pre-screening antiplatelets and 743 (45.8%) lipid lowering therapy. Furthermore, 413 (25.5%) started antiplatelet therapy and 347 (21.4%) started lipid lowering therapy. Only smoking was significantly associated with all vascular conditions in multivariable analysis: odds ratios (ORs) for current smoking were AAA 8.11 (95% CI 2.27 - 28.97), PAD 5.60 (95% CI 3.61 - 8.67) and CP 3.64 (95% CI 2.95 - 4.47).

CONCLUSION

The attendance rate signals public acceptability for attending cardiovascular screening. Men had more screen detected conditions than women, but prophylactic medicine was started equally frequently in both sexes. Sex specific cost effectiveness follow up is warranted.

Mitochondrial quality control in abdominal aortic aneurysm: From molecular mechanisms to therapeutic strategies

Mitochondria are the energy supply sites of cells and are crucial for eukaryotic life. Mitochondrial dysfunction is involved in the pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Multiple mitochondrial quality control (MQC) mechanisms, including mitochondrial DNA repair, biogenesis, antioxidant defense, dynamics, and autophagy, play vital roles in maintaining mitochondrial homeostasis under physiological and pathological conditions. Abnormalities in these mechanisms may induce mitochondrial damage and dysfunction leading to cell death and tissue remodeling. Recently, many clues suggest that dysregulation of MQC is closely related to the pathogenesis of AAA. Therefore, specific interventions targeting MQC mechanisms to maintain and restore mitochondrial function have become promising therapeutic methods for the prevention and treatment of AAA.

Editor's Choice - Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Normal Infrarenal Aortic Diameter in the General Worldwide Population and Changes in Recent Decades

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the characteristics of normal infrarenal aortic diameter (AD) in the general worldwide population, to examine changes over time, and to investigate geographical differences.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science.

REVIEW METHODS

This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published up to October 2020 describing infrarenal AD measured by ultrasound in the general adult population. The study was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA statement and placed no restrictions on geographical location or year of publication. Studies of individuals pre-selected for certain diseases or risk factors and opportunistic screening were excluded. A random effects model was used to estimate pooled mean AD, and meta-regression analysis was used to study the effects of determinants of AD.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were included, reporting data for 941 144 individuals (98% were men). The pooled mean AD was 19.4 mm (95% confidence interval [CI] 18.8 - 20.1), being 20.1 mm (95% CI 19.4 - 20.8) in men and 17.8 mm (95% CI 16.5 - 19.1) in women (p < .001). Outer edge to outer edge (OTO) caliper placement method (p = .015) and body surface area (BSA; p = .010) were significantly associated with larger AD. In men, the largest mean AD was observed in Oceania (p < .001) and the smallest in Asia (p < .020). As none of the studies collected data between 2002 and 2007, the studies were divided into two periods: 2001 and before, and 2008 and after. All recent studies were European, with the diameters being significantly smaller (p = .003) in the latter period (18.3 mm [95% CI 17.5 - 19.1] vs. 20.7 mm [95% CI 19.1 - 22.3]). In the meta-regression models, the reduction in AD over time remained significant after adjustment for potential effect modifiers such as sex, age, geographical area, body size, cardiovascular risk factors, and ultrasound method.

CONCLUSION

Mean infrarenal AD in older European adults has decreased significantly in recent decades. Male sex, BSA, and OTO ultrasound measurement method are associated with larger AD, and geographical differences were observed in men.

Guidelines on the management of abdominal aortic aneurysms: updates from the Italian Society of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery (SICVE)

The objective of these Guidelines was to revise and update the previous 2016 Italian Guidelines on Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Disease, in accordance with the National Guidelines System (SNLG), to guide every practitioner toward the most correct management pathway for this pathology. The methodology applied in this update was the GRADE-SIGN version methodology, following the instructions of the AGREE quality of reporting checklist as well. The first methodological step was the formulation of clinical questions structured according to the PICO (Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome) model according to which the Recommendations were issued. Then, systematic reviews of the Literature were carried out for each PICO question or for homogeneous groups of questions, followed by the selection of the articles and the assessment of the methodological quality for each of them using qualitative checklists. Finally, a Considered Judgment form was filled in for each clinical question, in which the features of the evidence as a whole are assessed to establish the transition from the level of evidence to the direction and strength of the recommendations. These guidelines outline the correct management of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm in terms of screening and surveillance. Medical management and indication for surgery are discussed, as well as preoperative assessment regarding patients' background and surgical risk evaluation. Once the indication for surgery has been established, the options for traditional open and endovascular surgery are described and compared, focusing specifically on patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms as well. Finally, indications for early and late postoperative follow-up are explained. The most recent evidence in the Literature has been able to confirm and possibly modify the previous recommendations updating them, likewise to propose new recommendations on prospectively relevant topics.

Overview of screening eligibility in patients undergoing ruptured AAA repair from 2003 to 2019 in the Vascular Quality Initiative

OBJECTIVE

Although efforts such as the Screening Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Very Efficiently (SAAAVE) Act have improved access to abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening, certain high-risk populations are currently excluded from the guidelines yet may benefit from screening. We therefore examined all patients who underwent repair of ruptured AAA (rAAA) to characterize those who are ineligible for screening under current guidelines and evaluate the potential impact of these restrictions on their disease.

METHODS

We identified patients undergoing rAAA repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database between 2003 and 2019. These patients were stratified by AAA screening eligibility according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement guidelines. We then described baseline characteristics to identify high-risk features of these cohorts. Groups with disproportionate representation in the screening-ineligible cohort were identified as potential targets of screening expansion. Trends over time in screening eligibility and the proportion of AAA repairs performed for rAAA were also analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 5340 patients underwent rAAA repair. The majority (66%) were screening-ineligible. When characterizing the screening-ineligible group by sex and risk factors (smoking history or family history of AAA), the largest contributors to screening ineligibility were males less than 65 years of age with a smoking history or family history of AAA (25%), males greater than 75 years of age with a smoking history (25%), and females older than 65 years of age with a smoking history (19%). In comparison with rAAAs prior to implementation of the SAAAVE act, the proportion of AAA repair performed for rupture among males undergoing AAA repair in the VQI decreased from 12% to 8% (P < .001), whereas in females, there was no change (P = .990). There was no statically significant difference in screening eligibility for either males (P = .762) or females (P = .335).

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients who underwent rAAA repair were ineligible for initial AAA screening or aged out of the screening window. Furthermore, rAAA rates and screening ineligibility have not improved as much as expected since the passage of the SAAAVE Act. Our data suggest that three high-risk populations may benefit from expansion of AAA screening guidelines: males with a smoking history or family history of AAA between ages 55 and 64 years, female smokers older than 65 years, and male smokers older than 75 years who are otherwise in good health. Increased efforts to screen these high-risk populations may increase elective AAA repair and minimize the morbidity and mortality associated with rAAAs.

AAA Revisited: A Comprehensive Review of Risk Factors, Management, and Hallmarks of Pathogenesis

Despite declining incidence and mortality rates in many countries, the abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) continues to represent a life-threatening cardiovascular condition with an overall prevalence of about 2-3% in the industrialized world. While the risk of AAA development is considerably higher for men of advanced age with a history of smoking, screening programs serve to detect the often asymptomatic condition and prevent aortic rupture with an associated death rate of up to 80%. This review summarizes the current knowledge on identified risk factors, the multifactorial process of pathogenesis, as well as the latest advances in medical treatment and surgical repair to provide a perspective for AAA management.

Sex-specific normal values and determinants of infrarenal abdominal aortic diameter among non-aneurysmal elderly population

To establish age- and sex-specific distribution of the infrarenal abdominal aortic diameters (IAD) among non-aneurysmal elderly population and to investigate the associations between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and IAD in men and women. We included 4032 participants (mean age 67.2 years; 60.4% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study, free of cardiovascular disease, who underwent IAD ultrasound assessment between 2009-2014. Linear regression analysis was used to identify determinants of IAD. The medians (inter-quartile range) of absolute IAD and body surface area (BSA)-adjusted IAD were 17.0 (15.0-18.0) mm and 9.3 (8.5-10.2) mm for women and 19.0 (18.0-21.0) mm and 9.4 (8.6-10.3) mm for men, respectively. There was a non-linear relationship between age and IAD. IAD increased steeply with advancing age and up to 70 years. After around 75 years of age, the diameter values reached a plateau. Waist circumference and diastolic blood pressure were associated with larger diameters in both sexes. Body mass index [Effect estimate (95% CI): 0.04 (0.00 to 0.08)], systolic blood pressure [- 0.01(- 0.02 to 0.00)], current smoking [0.35 (0.06 to 0.65)], total cholesterol levels [- 0.21 (- 0.31 to - 0.11)], and lipid-lowering medication [- 0.43 (- 0.67 to - 0.19)] were significantly associated with IAD in women. Sex differences in IAD values diminished after taking BSA into account. The increase in diameters was attenuated after 70 years. Differences were observed in the associations of several cardiovascular risk factors with IAD among men and women.

Derivation and Validation of a 10-Year Risk Score for Symptomatic Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Cohort Study of Nearly 500 000 Individuals

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can occur in patients who are ineligible for routine ultrasound screening. A simple AAA risk score was derived and compared with current guidelines used for ultrasound screening of AAA.

METHODS

United Kingdom Biobank participants without previous AAA were split into a derivation cohort (n=401 820, 54.6% women, mean age 56.4 years, 95.5% White race) and validation cohort (n=83 816). Incident AAA was defined as first hospital inpatient diagnosis of AAA, death from AAA, or an AAA-related surgical procedure. A multivariable Cox model was developed in the derivation cohort into an AAA risk score that did not require blood biomarkers. To illustrate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for AAA, a theoretical threshold to refer patients for ultrasound at 0.25% 10-year risk was modeled. Discrimination of the risk score was compared with a model of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) AAA screening guidelines.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, there were 1570 (0.40%) cases of AAA over a median 11.3 years of follow-up. Components of the AAA risk score were age (stratified by smoking status), weight (stratified by smoking status), antihypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medication use, height, diastolic blood pressure, baseline cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. In the validation cohort, over 10 years of follow-up, the C-index for the model of the USPSTF guidelines was 0.705 (95% CI, 0.678-0.733). The C-index of the risk score as a continuous variable was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.837-0.878). In the validation cohort, the USPSTF model yielded sensitivity 63.9% and specificity 71.3%. At the 0.25% 10-year risk threshold, the risk score yielded sensitivity 82.1% and specificity 70.7% while also improving the net reclassification index compared with the USPSTF model +0.176 (95% CI, 0.120-0.232). A combined model, whereby risk scoring was combined with the USPSTF model, also improved prediction compared with USPSTF alone (net reclassification index +0.101 [95% CI, 0.055-0.147]).

CONCLUSIONS

In an asymptomatic general population, a risk score based on patient age, height, weight, and medical history may improve identification of asymptomatic patients at risk for clinical events from AAA. Further development and validation of risk scores to detect asymptomatic AAA are needed.

Ultrasound screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in high-risk women

Background

Population-wide ultrasound screening programmes for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men have already been established in some countries. Women account for one third of aneurysm-related mortality and are four times more likely to experience an AAA rupture than men. Whole-population screening for AAA in women is unlikely to be clinically or economically effective. The aim of this study was to determine the outcomes of a targeted AAA screening programme for women at high risk of AAA.

Method

Women aged 65–74 years deemed at high risk of having an AAA (current smokers, ex-smokers, or with a history of coronary artery disease) were invited to attend ultrasound screening (July 2016 to March 2019) for AAA in the Female Aneurysm screening STudy (FAST). Primary outcomes were attendance for screening and prevalence of AAA. Biometric data, medical history, quality of life (QoL) and aortic diameter on ultrasound imaging were recorded prospectively.

Results

Some 6037 women were invited and 5200 attended screening (86.7 per cent). Fifteen AAAs larger than 29 mm were detected (prevalence 0.29 (95 per cent c.i. 0.18 to 0.48) per cent). Current smokers had the highest prevalence (0.83 (95 per cent c.i. 0.34 to 1.89) per cent) but lowest attendance (75.2 per cent). Three AAAs greater than 5.5 cm were identified and referred for consideration of surgical repair; one woman underwent repair. There was a significant reduction in patient-reported QoL scores following screening.

Conclusion

A low prevalence of AAA was detected in high-risk women, with lowest screening uptake in those at highest risk. Screening for AAA in high-risk women may not be beneficial.

Editor's Choice - Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Sex Specific Differences in Adverse Events After Open and Endovascular Intact Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: Consistently Worse Outcomes for Women

OBJECTIVE

Previously, reports have shown that women experience a higher mortality rate than men after elective open (OAR) and endovascular (EVAR) repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). With recent improvements in overall AAA repair outcomes, this study aimed to identify whether sex specific disparity has been ameliorated by modern practice, and to define sex specific differences in peri- and post-operative complications and pre-operative status; factors which may contribute to poor outcome.

METHODS

This was a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression of sex specific differences in 30 day mortality and complications conducted according to PRISMA guidance (Prospero registration CRD42020176398). Papers with ≥ 50 women, reporting sex specific outcomes, following intact primary AAA repair, from 2000 to 2020 worldwide were included; with separate analyses for EVAR and OAR. Data sources were Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL databases 2005 - 2020 searched using ProQuest Dialog.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies (371 215 men, 65 465 women) were included. Meta-analysis and meta-regression indicated that sex specific odds ratios (ORs) for 30 day mortality were unchanged from 2000 to 2020. Mortality risk was higher in women for OAR and more so for EVAR (OR [95% CI] 1.49 [1.37 - 1.61]; 1.86 [1.59 - 2.17], respectively) and this remained following multivariable risk adjustment. Transfusion, pulmonary complications, and bowel ischaemia were more common in women after OAR and EVAR (OAR: ORs 1.81 [1.60 - 2.04], 1.40 [1.28 - 1.53], 1.54 [1.36 - 1.75]; EVAR: ORs 2.18 [2.08 - 2.29] 1.44 [1.17 - 1.77], 1.99 [1.51 - 2.62], respectively). Arterial injury, limb ischaemia, renal and cardiac complications were more common in women after EVAR (ORs 3.02 [1.62 - 5.65], 2.13 [1.48 - 3.06], 1.46 [1.22 - 1.72] and 1.19 [1.03 - 1.37], respectively); the latter was associated with greater mortality risk on meta-regression.

CONCLUSION

Increased mortality risk for women following AAA repair remains. Women had a higher incidence of transfusion, pulmonary and bowel complications after EVAR and OAR. Higher mortality risk ratios for EVAR may result from cardiac complications, additional arterial injury, and embolisation, leading to renal and limb ischaemia. These findings indicate possible causes for observed outcome disparities and targets for quality improvement.

Outcomes of Small Incidental Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in Octogenarian and Nonagenarian Patients in Northern Spain

OBJECTIVE

Greater population life expectancy and consistent improvement in diagnostic techniques have increased the diagnosis of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in the elderly population. The aim was to study the natural history of small (< 55 mm) incidental AAAs in octogenarian and nonagenarian patients to assess the need for follow up and/or invasive treatment.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of a prospective registry. Patients ≥ 80 years old at the time of diagnosis of a < 55 mm AAA in 1988-2018 were selected. Clinical and anatomical characteristics were registered. Patients were divided in three groups: 30 - 39 mm, 40 - 49 mm, and 50 - 54 mm AAA. The outcome variables were aorto-iliac rupture, AAA reaching a surgical threshold (≥ 55 mm), and death. A descriptive statistical analysis was performed and life tables, Kaplan-Meier curves, and uni- and multivariable Cox regression were used.

RESULTS

Three hundred and ten patients were included, 256 (82.6%) men, with mean index age of 84.5 years (standard deviation [SD] 3.5), and median follow up of 37.9 months (interquartile range [IQR] 18.2 - 65.4). Eighteen (5.8%) AAAs ruptured; four of these patients were operated on and only one survived. Sixty-two (20%) AAA reached a surgical size; eight were repaired electively, with 0% early mortality. The survival rates were 81%, 70%, and 38% at one, two, and five years. The rupture rates were 1%, 2%, and 6% and the AAAs reaching surgical threshold were 1%, 4%, and 19% for the same time periods. AAA size < 40 mm was an independent protective factor from rupture (0.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03 - 0.48), reaching surgical threshold (0.08; 95% CI 0.04 - 0.16) and death (0.63; 95% CI 0.42 - 0.95).

CONCLUSION

The risk of late rupture of small incidental AAA diagnosed in octogenarian and nonagenarian patients is very small, especially when the AAA is < 40 mm in diameter. In contrast, global mortality is high. Conservative management seems sensible, with strict selection of the patients who would benefit from follow up and eventual repair.

Configuration of vascular services: a multiple methods research programme

Background

Vascular services is changing rapidly, having emerged as a new specialty with its own training and specialised techniques. This has resulted in the need for reconfiguration of services to provide adequate specialist provision and accessible and equitable services.

Objectives

To identify the effects of service configuration on practice, resource use and outcomes. To model potential changes in configuration. To identify and/or develop electronic data collection tools for collecting patient-reported outcome measures and other clinical information. To evaluate patient preferences for aspects of services other than health-related quality of life.

Design

This was a multiple methods study comprising multiple systematic literature reviews; the development of a new outcome measure for users of vascular services (the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular) based on the reviews, qualitative studies and psychometric evaluation; a trade-off exercise to measure process utilities; Hospital Episode Statistics analysis; and the development of individual disease models and a metamodel of service configuration.

Setting

Specialist vascular inpatient services in England.

Data sources

Modelling and Hospital Episode Statistics analysis for all vascular inpatients in England from 2006 to 2018. Qualitative studies and electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular evaluation with vascular patients from the Sheffield area. The trade-off studies were based on a societal sample from across England.

Interventions

The data analysis, preference studies and modelling explored the effect of different potential arrangements for service provision on the resource use, workload and outcomes for all interventions in the three main areas of inpatient vascular treatment: peripheral arterial disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm and carotid artery disease. The electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular was evaluated as a potential tool for clinical data collection and outcome monitoring.

Main outcome measures

Systematic reviews assessed quality and psychometric properties of published outcome measures for vascular disease and the relationship between volume and outcome in vascular services. The electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular development considered face and construct validity, test–retest reliability and responsiveness. Models were validated using case studies from previous reconfigurations and comparisons with Hospital Episode Statistics data. Preference studies resulted in estimates of process utilities for aneurysm treatment and for travelling distances to access services.

Results

Systematic reviews provided evidence of an association between increasing volume of activity and improved outcomes for peripheral arterial disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm and carotid artery disease. Reviews of existing patient-reported outcome measures did not identify suitable condition-specific tools for incorporation in the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular. Reviews of qualitative evidence, primary qualitative studies and a Delphi exercise identified the issues to be incorporated into the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular, resulting in a questionnaire with one generic and three disease-specific domains. After initial item reduction, the final version has 55 items in eight scales and has acceptable psychometric properties. The preference studies showed strong preference for endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm treatment (willingness to trade up to 0.135 quality-adjusted life-years) and for local services (up to 0.631 quality-adjusted life-years). A simulation model with a web-based interface was developed, incorporating disease-specific models for abdominal aortic aneurysm, peripheral arterial disease and carotid artery disease. This predicts the effects of specified reconfigurations on workload, resource use, outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Initial exploration suggested that further reconfiguration of services in England to accomplish high-volume centres would result in improved outcomes, within the bounds of cost-effectiveness usually considered acceptable in the NHS.

Limitations

The major source of evidence to populate the models was Hospital Episode Statistics data, which have limitations owing to the complexity of the data, deficiencies in the coding systems and variations in coding practice. The studies were not able to address all of the potential barriers to change where vascular services are not compliant with current NHS recommendations.

Conclusions

There is evidence of potential for improvement in the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vascular services through further centralisation of sites where major vascular procedures are undertaken. Preferences for local services are strong, and this may be addressed through more integrated services, with a range of services being provided more locally. The use of a web-based tool for the collection of clinical data and patient-reported outcome measures is feasible and can provide outcome data for clinical use and service evaluation.

Future work

Further evaluation of the economic models in real-world situations where local vascular service reconfiguration is under consideration and of the barriers to change where vascular services do not meet NHS recommendations for service configuration is needed. Further work on the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular is required to assess its acceptability and usefulness in clinical practice and to develop appropriate report formats for clinical use and service evaluation. Further studies to assess the implications of including non-health-related preferences for care processes, and location of services, in calculations of cost-effectiveness are required.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042570, CRD42016042573, CRD42016042574, CRD42016042576, CRD42016042575, CRD42014014850, CRD42015023877 and CRD42015024820.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 9, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Changes to the Surveillance Intervals in the UK Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the safety and cost-effectiveness of lengthening the time between surveillance ultrasound scans in the UK Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) Screening Programme.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of AAA screening for men aged 65, comparing current surveillance intervals to 6 alternative surveillance interval strategies that lengthened the time between surveillance scans for 1 or more AAA size categories. The model considered clinical events and costs incurred over a 30-year time horizon and the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The model adopted the National Health Service perspective and discounted future costs and benefits at 3.5%.

RESULTS

Compared with current practice, alternative surveillance strategies resulted in up to a 4% reduction in the number of elective AAA repairs but with an increase of up to 1.6% in the number of AAA ruptures and AAA-related deaths. Alternative strategies resulted in a small reduction in QALYs compared to current practice but with reduced costs. Two strategies that lengthened surveillance intervals in only very small AAAs (3.0-3.9 cm) provided, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000 per QALY, the highest positive incremental net benefit. There was negligible chance that current practice is the most cost-effective strategy at any threshold below £40 000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Lengthening surveillance intervals in the UK Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme, especially for small AAA, can marginally reduce the incremental cost per QALY of the program. Nevertheless, whether the cost savings from refining surveillance strategies justifies a change in clinical practice is unclear.

A Decision Analysis Evaluating Screening for Kidney Cancer Using Focused Renal Ultrasound

BACKGROUND

Screening for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has been identified as a key research priority; however, no randomised control trials have been performed. Value of information analysis can determine whether further research on this topic is of value.

OBJECTIVE

To determine (1) whether current evidence suggests that screening is potentially cost-effective and, if so, (2) in which age/sex groups, (3) identify evidence gaps, and (4) estimate the value of further research to close those gaps.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A decision model was developed evaluating screening in asymptomatic individuals in the UK. A National Health Service perspective was adopted.

INTERVENTION

A single focused renal ultrasound scan compared with standard of care (no screening).

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Expected lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted at 3.5% per annum.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Given a prevalence of RCC of 0.34% (0.18-0.54%), screening 60-yr-old men resulted in an ICER of £18 092/QALY (€22 843/QALY). Given a prevalence of RCC of 0.16% (0.08-0.25%), screening 60-yr-old women resulted in an ICER of £37327/QALY (€47 129/QALY). In the one-way sensitivity analysis, the ICER was <£30000/QALY as long as the prevalence of RCC was ≥0.25% for men and ≥0.2% for women at age 60yr. Given the willingness to pay a threshold of £30000/QALY (€37 878/QALY), the population-expected values of perfect information were £194 million (€244 million) and £97 million (€123 million) for 60-yr-old men and women, respectively. The expected value of perfect parameter information suggests that the prevalence of RCC and stage shift associated with screening are key research priorities.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence suggests that one-off screening of 60-yr-old men is potentially cost-effective and that further research into this topic would be of value to society.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Economic modelling suggests that screening 60-yr-old men for kidney cancer using ultrasound may be a good use of resources and that further research on this topic should be performed.

Sex Differences in Rupture Risk and Mortality in Untreated Patients With Intact Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Background

Studies on intact abdominal aortic aneurysms mainly focus on treated patients, and data on untreated patients are sparse. The objective was to investigate sex differences among untreated patients regarding rupture and mortality rates and to determine predictors for these events. Sex‐specific causes of death were evaluated.

Methods and Results

All patients ≥40 years diagnosed from 2001 to 2015 (n=32 393) with intact abdominal aortic aneurysms were identified in national registries; 60% (n=19 569) were untreated. Comorbid loads, crude rupture, and mortality rates were assessed. Predictors of 5‐year rupture and mortality were analyzed in Cox models (sex, age, comorbidities, income, and marital status). The proportion of men and women with multiple comorbidities was similar. Within 5 years, 798 ruptures occurred (9.7% women versus 6.9% men, P<0.001). Ruptures were independently predicted by female sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07–1.42; P=0.004), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.15–1.62; P<0.001), age (HR, 11.49; 95% CI, 5.68–23.25 for ≥80 years; P<0.001), and income (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.53–0.75 for highest tertile; P<0.001). After 5 years, 56.5% women and 50.4% men were deceased. Mortality was not independently predicted by female sex. Rupture was the third most common cause of death (11.9% women versus 8.7% men; P<0.001). The median time‐to‐events was 2.8 years.

Conclusions

A considerable proportion of patients with intact abdominal aortic aneurysms in surveillance remain untreated. Despite surveillance algorithms, the healthcare system fails to prevent a high number of ruptures, especially among women. The time‐to‐event data highlight the urgency to develop more individualized surveillance.

Epidemiology of endovascular and open repair for abdominal aortic aneurysms in the United States from 2004 to 2015 and implications for screening

BACKGROUND

Contemporary national trends in the repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) and intact AAAs are relatively unknown. Furthermore, screening is only covered by insurance for patients aged 65 to 75 years with a family history of AAAs and for men with a positive smoking history. It is unclear what proportion of patients who present with a ruptured AAA would have been candidates for screening.

METHODS

Using the National Inpatient Sample from 2004 to 2015, we identified ruptured and intact AAA admissions and repairs using the International Classification of Diseases codes. We generated the screening-eligible cohort using previously identified proportions of male smokers (87%) and all patients with a family history of AAAs (10%) and applied these proportions to patients aged 65 to 75 years. We accounted for those who could have had a previous AAA diagnosis (17%), either from screening or an incidental detection in patients aged >75 years who had presented with AAA rupture. The primary outcomes were treatment and in-hospital mortality between patients meeting the criteria for screening vs those who did not.

RESULTS

We evaluated 65,125 admissions for ruptured AAAs and 461,191 repairs for intact AAAs. Overall, an estimated 45,037 admitted patients (68%) and 25,777 patients who had undergone repair for ruptured AAAs (59%) did not meet the criteria for screening. Of the patients who did not qualify, 27,653 (63%) were aged >75 years, 10,603 (24%) were aged <65 years, and 16,103 (36%) were women. Endovascular AAA repair (EVAR) increased for ruptured AAAs from 10% in 2004 to 55% in 2015 (P < .001), with operative mortality of 35%. EVAR increased for intact AAAs from 45% in 2004 to 83% in 2015 (P < .001), with operative mortality of 2.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients who had undergone repair for ruptured AAAs did not qualify for screening. EVAR was the primary treatment of both ruptured and intact AAAs with relatively low in-hospital mortality. Therefore, expansion of the screening criteria to include selected women and a wider age range should be considered.

Abdominal aortic aneurysms part one: Epidemiology, presentation and preoperative considerations

An abdominal aortic aneurysm is an irreversible dilatation of the abdominal aorta. The majority of abdominal aortic aneurysms are asymptomatic and identified incidentally while investigating a separate pathology. Others are detected by national screening programmes and some present due to a growth or rupture. Symptomatic or ruptured aneurysms require urgent or emergency repair in patients fit for surgery. Perioperative practitioners should therefore be aware of how patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms present and are investigated, so that they can implement timely management. Guidelines have been recently updated to reflect this. This literature review discusses these recommendations and explores the evidence upon which they are based. The aim of this article is to highlight the important preoperative principles that need to be considered in cases of abdominal aortic aneurysm.

Management of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Disease: Similarities and Differences Among Cardiovascular Guidelines and NICE Guidance

The development of endovascular techniques has improved abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) management over the past 2 decades. Different cardiovascular societies worldwide have recommended the endovascular approach as the standard of care in their currently available guidelines. While endovascular treatment has established its role in daily clinical practice, a new debate has arisen regarding the indications, appropriateness, limitations, and role of open surgery. To inform this debate, the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched from 2010 to May 2020; the systematic search identified 5 articles published between 2011 and 2020 by 4 cardiovascular societies and the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Four debatable domains were assessed and analyzed: diagnostic methods and screening, preoperative management, indications and treatment modalities, and postoperative follow-up and endoleak management. The review addresses controversial proposals as well as widely accepted recommendations and "gray zone" issues that need to be further investigated and analyzed, such as screening in women, medical management, and follow-up imaging. While the recommendations for AAA management have significant overlap and agreement among international cardiovascular societies, the NICE guidelines diverge regarding the role of open repair in aortic disease, recommending conventional surgery in most elective cases.

Both Small and Large Infrarenal Aortic Size is Associated with an Increased Prevalence of Ischaemic Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE

Past studies have suggested a potential "J shaped" relationship between infrarenal aortic diameter and both cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevalence and all cause mortality. However, screening programmes have focused primarily on large (aneurysmal) aortas. In addition, aortic diameter is rarely adjusted for body size, which is particularly important for women. This study aimed to investigate specifically the relationship between body size adjusted infrarenal aortic diameter and baseline prevalence of CVD.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on a total of 4882 elderly (>50 years) participants (mean age 69.4 ± 8.9 years) for whom duplex ultrasound to assess infrarenal abdominal aortic diameters had been performed. History of CVDs, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and associated risk factors were collected at the time of assessment. A derivation cohort of 1668 participants was used to select cut offs at the lower and upper 12.5% tails of the aortic size distributions (aortic size index of <0.84 and >1.2, respectively), which was then tested in a separate cohort.

RESULTS

A significantly elevated prevalence of CVD, and specifically IHD, was observed in participants with both small and large aortas. These associations remained significant following adjustment for age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, obesity (body mass index), and smoking.

CONCLUSION

The largest and smallest infrarenal aortic sizes were both associated with prevalence of IHD. In addition to identifying those with aneurysmal disease, it is hypothesised that screening programmes examining infrarenal aortic size may also have the potential to improve global CVD risk prediction by identifying those with small aortas.

Analysis of the Differences Between the ESVS 2019 and NICE 2020 Guidelines for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to understand why two recently published guidelines for the diagnosis and management of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2020 guidelines and the European Society for Vascular Surgery (ESVS) 2019 guidelines, have discordant recommendations in several important areas.

METHODS

A review of the approach, methodology, and evidence used by the two guideline committees was carried out to understand potential reasons for their differing recommendations in their two final published guidelines.

RESULTS

NICE guidelines use a multidisciplinary committee to address a limited number of prospectively identified questions, using rigorous methods heavily reliant on evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) supported by in house economic modelling, with the purpose of providing the best, cost-effective health care in the UK in 46 main recommendations. The ESVS guidelines use an expert committee to encourage clinical effectiveness across a range of European health economies. ESVS guideline topics, but not questions, are prospectively identified, assessment of evidence was less rigorous, and 125 recommendations were made. More up to date evidence searches by the ESVS committee partially underscore the differences in recommendations for screening women. The NICE committee did not consider sex specific analysis or evidence for thresholds for intervention but relied on sex specific modelling to support their advice to use endovascular repair (EVAR) for ruptures in women. Their recommendation to use open repair for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in men aged < 71 years was based on in house economic modelling. NICE recommends an open first strategy for non-ruptured AAA mainly based on earlier RCTs and UK specific economic modelling, while the ESVS guidelines recommend an EVAR first strategy after consideration of modern, but lower quality, evidence from observational studies. Similar reasons explain differences in the recommended treatments of juxtarenal aneurysms.

CONCLUSION

Differences between the NICE and ESVS guidelines can be explained, at least in part, by their differing perspectives, methodologies, and quality assurance. Future ESVS guidelines may benefit from more multidisciplinary input and prospectively identified questions.

Evaluating the prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms in the United States through a national screening database

OBJECTIVE

The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force guidelines for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening are based mainly on studies of older Caucasian males from non-U.S.

POPULATIONS

This study was designed to analyze the findings of a large, all-inclusive AAA screening program in the United States.

METHODS

Screening events were held nationally by a U.S. nonprofit organization between 2001 and 2017. AAA screening was offered regardless of risk profile. Participants filled out a demographics form with known comorbidities. Significant risk factors were determined using logistic regression with backward stepwise variable selection. Odds ratios (OR) are reported with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 9457 screened participants (47% male) were analyzed. The mean age was 67 ± 9 years with 40.8% between 65 and 75 years old. Most participants were Caucasian (83.4%), followed by African American (13.1%). Screened risk factors included hypertension (58.1%), hyperlipidemia (54.9%), smoking (52.0%), cardiac disease (29.2%), diabetes mellitus (18.4%), a family history of AAA (22.4%) or brain aneurysms (8.6%), and body mass index (26.9 ± 5.28). Overall, 267 participants (2.82%) were found to have an AAA (>3 cm). Those ages 65 to 75 had a prevalence of 2.98%. In a fully adjusted, multivariate logistic regression, there was an increased risk of AAA in males (OR, 3.24; 95% CI, 2.39-4.40), current smokers (OR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.36-4.54), previous smokers (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.41-2.47), cardiac disease (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.01-1.68), family history of AAA (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.20-2.14), and advancing age (P < .0001). Female ever smokers 65 to 75 years old had a prevalence of 1.7%. Male smokers 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 years old had a prevalence of 3.37% and 4.43%, respectively. There was an increased risk of AAA in females with morbid obesity (OR, 5.54; 95% CI, 1.34-22.83 in never smokers and OR, 5.61; 95% CI, 1.04-30.15 in smokers), female smokers with hypertension (OR, 3.22; 95% CI, 1.21-8.58), males with cardiac disease (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.08-3.90 in never smokers and OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.05-2.09), male smokers with a family history of AAA (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.61-2.46), and current smokers (OR, 6.33; 95% CI, 2.62-15.24 for females and OR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.70-3.65 for males).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that there remain high-risk groups outside the current guidelines that would likely benefit from AAA screening. Risk factors for AAA include male gender, smoking, cardiac disease, family history of AAA, and advancing age. The most significant risk factor is current smoking status.

Primary Care Screening for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force

IMPORTANCE

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) have mortality estimated at 81%.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the evidence on benefits and harms of AAA screening and small aneurysm treatment to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, PubMed (publisher supplied only), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for relevant English-language studies published through September 2018. Surveillance continued through July 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Trials of AAA screening benefits and harms; trials and cohort studies of small (3.0-5.4 cm) AAA treatment benefits and harms.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two investigators independently reviewed abstracts and full-text articles and extracted data. The Peto method was used to pool odds ratios (ORs) for AAA-related mortality, rupture, and operations; the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model was used to pool calculated risk ratios for all-cause mortality.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

AAA and all-cause mortality; AAA rupture; treatment complications.

RESULTS

Fifty studies (N = 323 279) met inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of population-based randomized clinical trials (RCTs) estimated that a screening invitation to men 65 years or older was associated with a reduction in AAA-related mortality over 12 to 15 years (OR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.57-0.74]; 4 RCTs [n = 124 926]), AAA-related ruptures over 12 to 15 years (OR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.55-0.70]; 4 RCTs [n = 124 929]), and emergency surgical procedures over 4 to 15 years (OR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.48-0.68]; 5 RCTS [n = 175 085]). In contrast, no significant association with all-cause mortality benefit was seen at 12- to 15-year follow-up (relative risk, 0.99 [95% CI 0.98-1.00]; 4 RCTs [n = 124 929]). One-time screening was associated with significantly more procedures over 4 to 15 years in the invited group compared with the control group (OR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.34-1.55]; 5 RCTs [n = 175 085]). Four trials (n = 3314) of small aneurysm surgical treatment demonstrated no significant difference in AAA-related mortality or all-cause mortality compared with surveillance over 1.7 to 12 years. These 4 early surgery trials showed a substantial increase in procedures in the early surgery group. For small aneurysm treatment, registry data (3 studies [n = 14 424]) showed that women had higher surgical complications and postoperative mortality compared with men.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

One-time AAA screening in men 65 years or older was associated with decreased AAA-related mortality and rupture rates but was not associated with all-cause mortality benefit. Higher rates of elective surgery but no long-term differences in quality of life resulted from screening.

Ovariectomy increases the incidence and diameter of abdominal aortic aneurysm in a hypoperfusion-induced abdominal aortic aneurysm animal model

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a vascular disease characterized by weakening of the vascular walls. Male sex is a risk factor for AAA, and peak AAA incidence occurs in men 10 years earlier than in women. However, the growth rate of AAA is faster in women, and women have a higher mortality due to AAA rupture. The mechanisms underlying sex-related differences in AAA remain unknown. Herein, we evaluated the effects of ovariectomy (OVX) on AAA in rats. Upon evaluation of the effects of OVX and AAA induction, AAA incidence rate and the aneurysm diameter increased in the OVX group. However, the histopathology in the developed AAA wall was not different between groups. When the effects of OVX on the vascular wall without AAA induction were evaluated, elastin and collagen levels were significantly decreased. Furthermore, the level of matrix metalloproteinase-9 significantly increased in the OVX group. According to our results, it is speculated that decreased levels of collagen and elastin fibers induced by OVX might be involved in increased incidence rate and diameter of AAA. Weakening of the vascular wall before the onset of AAA might be one reason for the faster rate of AAA growth in women.

Plasma Desmosine and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Disease

Background

It is recognized that factors beyond aortic size are important in predicting outcome in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) disease. AAA is characterized by the breakdown of elastin within the aortic tunica media, leading to aortic dilatation and rupture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of plasma desmosine (pDES), an elastin‐specific degradation product, with disease severity and clinical outcome in patients with AAA.

Methods and Results

We measured pDES and serum biomarker concentrations in 507 patients with AAAs (94% men; mean age, 72.4±6.1 years; mean AAA diameter, 48±8 mm) and 162 control subjects (100% men; mean age, 71.5±4.4 years) from 2 observational cohort studies. In the longitudinal cohort study (n=239), we explored the incremental prognostic value of pDES on AAA events. pDES was higher in patients with AAA compared with control subjects (mean±SD: 0.46±0.22 versus 0.33±0.16 ng/mL; P<0.001) and had the strongest correlation with AAA diameter (r=0.39; P<0.0001) of any serum biomarker. After adjustment for baseline AAA diameter, pDES was associated with an AAA event (hazard ratio, 2.03 per SD increase [95% CI, 1.02–4.02]; P=0.044). In addition to AAA diameter, pDES provided incremental improvement in risk stratification (continuous net reclassification improvement, 34.4% [95% CI, −10.8% to 57.5%; P=0.09]; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.00–0.15; P=0.050]).

Conclusions

pDES concentrations predict disease severity and clinical outcomes in patients with AAA.

Clinical Trial Registration

http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN76413758.

The population prevalence of undetected abdominal aortic aneurysm in New Zealand Māori

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in Polynesian populations such as the New Zealand Māori has not been characterized. We measured this in a large population-based sample.

METHODS

A cross-sectional population-based prevalence study was conducted as part of an AAA screening pilot; 2467 Māori men aged 54 to 74 years and 1526 women aged 65 to 74 years registered with a primary care practice in Auckland (New Zealand) were invited to be screened by abdominal ultrasound between June 2016 and March 2018. Patients with pre-existing AAA disease and those with terminal conditions or circumstances that would make them unlikely to benefit from screening were excluded. The prevalence rate of AAA in Māori women was calculated with a cutoff definition of 27 mm as well as with the normal 30-mm definition (used in men). A log-binomial regression model estimated the prevalence rate at exactly 65 years for the purpose of comparison with screened populations in the United Kingdom.

RESULTS

The crude prevalence rate of undiagnosed AAA in Māori men aged 60 to 74 years was 3.6%. In women, it was 1.7% at the 30-mm threshold and 2.3% at 27 mm. The prevalence rate at exactly 65 years of age was calculated from the log-binomial regression model to be 2.7% (confidence interval [CI], 2.0%-3.8%) in men, 0.9% (CI, 0.4%-2.2%) in women at the 30-mm threshold, and 1.5% (CI, 0.7%-3.0%) in women at the 27-mm threshold. Among smokers, the crude prevalence rates were 7.5% (CI, 4.9%-11.5%) in men and 6.9% (CI, 4.1%-11.5%) in women (30 mm+).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of undiagnosed AAA in New Zealand Māori men is considerably higher than in screened populations of equivalent age in the United Kingdom and Sweden. Prevalence rates in New Zealand Māori women are close to those of screened British men. New Zealand should consider implementing a population-based screening program for Māori men and conduct further research into the health impact of screening Māori women.

Retrospective review of abdominal aortic aneurysm deaths in New Zealand: what proportion of deaths is potentially preventable by a screening programme in the contemporary setting?

OBJECTIVES

To describe the proportions of people dying from abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) who might have benefited from a formal screening programme for AAA.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional review of deaths.

SETTING AND STUDY POPULATIONS

All AAA deaths registered in New Zealand from 2010 to 2014 in the absence of a national AAA screening programme.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Known history of AAA prior to the acute event leading to AAA death, prognosis limiting comorbidities, history of prior abdominal imaging and a validated multimorbidity measure (M3-index scores).

RESULTS

1094 AAA deaths were registered in the 5 years between 2010 and 2014 in New Zealand. Prior to the acute AAA event resulting in death, 31.3% of the cohort had a known AAA diagnosis, and 10.9% had a previous AAA procedure. On average, the AAA diagnosis was known 3.7 years prior to death. At least 77% of the people dying from AAA also had one or more other prognosis limiting diagnosis. The hazard of 1-year mortality associated with the non-AAA related comorbidities for the AAA cohort aged 65 or above were 1.5-2.6 times higher than to the age matched general population based on M3-index scores. In 2014, overall AAA deaths accounted for only 0.7% of total deaths, and 1.0% of deaths among men aged 65 or above in New Zealand. At most, 20% of people dying from AAA in New Zealand between 2010 and 2014 might have had the potential to derive full benefit from a screening programme. About 51% of cases would have derived no or very limited benefit from a screening programme.

CONCLUSION

Falling AAA mortality, and high prevalence of competing comorbidities and/or prior AAA diagnosis and procedure raises the question about the likely value of a national AAA screening programme in a country such as New Zealand.

Health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness of a population-based screening programme for abdominal aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture carries a high fatality rate. AAAs can be detected before rupture by abdominal ultrasound imaging, allowing elective repair. Population-based screening for AAA in older men reduces AAA-related mortality by about 40 per cent. The UK began an AAA screening programme offering one-off scans to men aged 65 years in 2009. Sweden has a similar programme. Currently, there is no AAA screening programme in New Zealand. This cost-utility analysis aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a UK-style screening programme in the New Zealand setting.

METHODS

The analysis compared a formal AAA screening programme (one-off abdominal ultrasound imaging for about 20 000 men aged 65 years in 2011) with no systematic screening. A Markov macrosimulation model was adapted to estimate the health gains (in quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs), health system costs and cost-effectiveness in New Zealand. A health system perspective and lifetime horizon was adopted.

RESULTS

With New Zealand-specific inputs, the adapted model produced an estimate of about NZ $15 300 (€7746) per QALY gained, with a 95 per cent uncertainty interval (UI) of NZ $8700 to 31 000 (€4405 to 15 694) per QALY gained. Health gains were estimated at 117 (95 per cent UI 53 to 212) QALYs. Health system costs were NZ $1·68 million (€850 535), with a 95 per cent UI of NZ $820 200 to 3·24 million (€415 243 to €1·65 million).

CONCLUSION

Using New Zealand's gross domestic product per capita (about NZ $45 000 or €22 100) as a cost-effectiveness threshold, a UK-style AAA screening programme would be cost-effective in New Zealand.

Screening women aged 65 years or over for abdominal aortic aneurysm: a modelling study and health economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening programmes have been established for men in the UK to reduce deaths from AAA rupture. Whether or not screening should be extended to women is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of population screening for AAAs in women and compare a range of screening options.

DESIGN

A discrete event simulation (DES) model was developed to provide a clinically realistic model of screening, surveillance, and elective and emergency AAA repair operations. Input parameters specifically for women were employed. The model was run for 10 million women, with parameter uncertainty addressed by probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses.

SETTING

Population screening in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged ≥ 65 years, followed up to the age of 95 years.

INTERVENTIONS

Invitation to ultrasound screening, followed by surveillance for small AAAs and elective surgical repair for large AAAs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of operations undertaken, AAA-related mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), NHS costs and cost-effectiveness with annual discounting.

DATA SOURCES

AAA surveillance data, National Vascular Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics, trials of elective and emergency AAA surgery, and the NHS Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme (NAAASP).

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic reviews of AAA prevalence and, for elective operations, suitability for endovascular aneurysm repair, non-intervention rates, operative mortality and literature reviews for other parameters.

RESULTS

The prevalence of AAAs (aortic diameter of ≥ 3.0 cm) was estimated as 0.43% in women aged 65 years and 1.15% at age 75 years. The corresponding attendance rates following invitation to screening were estimated as 73% and 62%, respectively. The base-case model adopted the same age at screening (65 years), definition of an AAA (diameter of ≥ 3.0 cm), surveillance intervals (1 year for AAAs with diameter of 3.0-4.4 cm, 3 months for AAAs with diameter of 4.5-5.4 cm) and AAA diameter for consideration of surgery (5.5 cm) as in NAAASP for men. Per woman invited to screening, the estimated gain in QALYs was 0.00110, and the incremental cost was £33.99. This gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £31,000 per QALY gained. The corresponding incremental net monetary benefit at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained was -£12.03 (95% uncertainty interval -£27.88 to £22.12). Almost no sensitivity analyses brought the ICER below £20,000 per QALY gained; an exception was doubling the AAA prevalence to 0.86%, which resulted in an ICER of £13,000. Alternative screening options (increasing the screening age to 70 years, lowering the threshold for considering surgery to diameters of 5.0 cm or 4.5 cm, lowering the diameter defining an AAA in women to 2.5 cm and lengthening the surveillance intervals for the smallest AAAs) did not bring the ICER below £20,000 per QALY gained when considered either singly or in combination.

LIMITATIONS

The model for women was not directly validated against empirical data. Some parameters were poorly estimated, potentially lacking relevance or unavailable for women.

CONCLUSION

The accepted criteria for a population-based AAA screening programme in women are not currently met.

FUTURE WORK

A large-scale study is needed of the exact aortic size distribution for women screened at relevant ages. The DES model can be adapted to evaluate screening options in men.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015020444 and CRD42016043227.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Safety of Men With Small and Medium Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Under Surveillance in the NAAASP

BACKGROUND

Population screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has commenced in several countries, and has been shown to reduce AAA-related mortality by up to 50%. Most men who screen positive have an AAA <5.5 cm in diameter, the referral threshold for treatment, and are entered into an ultrasound surveillance program. This study aimed to determine the risk of ruptured AAA (rAAA) in men under surveillance.

METHODS

Men in the National Health Service AAA Screening Programme who initially had a small (3-4.4 cm) or medium (4.5-5.4 cm) AAA were followed up. The screening program's database collected data on ultrasound AAA diameter measurements, dates of referral, and loss to follow-up. Local screening programs recorded adverse outcomes, including rAAA and death. Rupture and mortality rates were calculated by initial and final known AAA diameter.

RESULTS

A total of 18 652 men were included (50 103 person-years of surveillance). Thirty-one men had rAAA during surveillance, of whom 29 died. Some 952 men died of other causes during surveillance, mainly cardiovascular complications (26.3%) and cancer (31.2%). The overall mortality rate was 1.96% per annum, similar for men with small and medium AAAs. The rAAA risk was 0.03% per annum (95% CI, 0.02%-0.05%) for men with small AAAs and 0.28% (0.17%-0.44%) for medium AAAs. The rAAA risk for men with AAAs just below the referral threshold (5.0-5.4 cm) was 0.40% (0.22%-0.73%).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of rAAA under surveillance is <0.5% per annum, even just below the present referral threshold of 5.5 cm, and only 0.4% of men under surveillance are estimated to rupture before referral. It can be concluded that men with small and medium screen-detected AAAs are safe provided they are enrolled in an intensive surveillance program, and that there is no evidence that the current referral threshold of 5.5 cm should be changed.

Pathophisiology of abdominal aortic aneurysm: biomarkers and novel therapeutic targets

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a vascular pathology with a high rate of morbidity and mortality and a prevalence that, in men over 65 years, can reach around 8%. In this disease, usually asymptomatic, there is a progressive dilatation of the vascular wall that can lead to its rupture, a fatal phenomenon in more than 80% of cases. The treatment of patients with asymptomatic aneurysms is limited to periodic monitoring with imaging tests, control of cardiovascular risk factors and treatment with statins and antiplatelet therapy. There is no effective pharmacological treatment capable of limiting AAA progression or avoiding their rupture. At present, the aortic diameter is the only marker of risk of rupture and determines the need for surgical repair when it reaches values greater than 5.5cm. This review addresses the main aspects related to epidemiology, risk factors, diagnosis and clinical management of AAA, exposes the difficulties to have good biomarkers of this pathology and describes the strategies for the identification of new therapeutic targets and biomarkers in AAA.

Sex differences in national rates of repair of emergency abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the sex differences in both the rate and type of repair for emergency abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in England.

METHODS

Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data sets from April 2002 to February 2015 were obtained. Clinical and administrative codes were used to identify patients who underwent primary emergency definitive repair of ruptured or intact AAA, and patients with a diagnosis of AAA who died in hospital without repair. These three groups included all patients with a primary AAA who presented as an emergency. Sex differences between repair rates and type of surgery (endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) versus open repair) over time were examined.

RESULTS

In total, 15 717 patients (83·3 per cent men) received emergency surgical intervention for ruptured AAA and 10 276 (81·2 per cent men) for intact AAA; 12 767 (62·0 per cent men) died in hospital without attempted repair. The unadjusted odds ratio for no repair in women versus men was 2·88 (95 per cent c.i. 2·75 to 3·02). Women undergoing repair of ruptured AAA were older and had a higher in-hospital mortality rate (50·0 versus 41·0 per cent for open repair; 30·9 versus 23·5 per cent for EVAR). After adjustment for age, deprivation and co-morbidities, the odds ratio for no repair in women versus men was 1·34 (1·28 to 1·40). The in-hospital mortality rate after emergency repair of an intact AAA was also higher among women.

CONCLUSION

Women who present as an emergency with an AAA are less likely to undergo repair than men. Although some of this can be explained by differences in age and co-morbidities, the differences persist after case-mix adjustment.

Correcting for Body Surface Area Identifies the True Prevalence of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in Screened Women

OBJECTIVE

Recently, the prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) using screening strategies based on elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk was reported. AAA was defined as a diameter ≥30 mm, with prevalence of 6.1% and 1.8% in men and women respectively, consistent with the widely reported AAA predominant prevalence in males. Given the obvious differences in body size between sexes this study aimed to re-evaluate the expanded CVD risk based AAA screening dataset to determine the effect of body size on sex specific AAA prevalence.

METHODS

Absolute (26 and 30 mm) and relative (aortic size index [ASI] equals the maximum infrarenal aorta diameter (cm) divided by body surface area (m²), ASI ≥ 1.5) thresholds were used to assess targeted AAA screening groups (n = 4115) and compared with a self reported healthy elderly control group (n = 800).

RESULTS

Male AAA prevalence was the same using either the 30 mm or ASI ≥1.5 aneurysm definitions (5.7%). In females, AAA prevalence was significantly different between the 30 mm (2.4%) and ASI ≥ 1.5 (4.5%) or the 26 mm (4.4%) thresholds.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest the purported male predominance in AAA prevalence is primarily an artefact of body size differences. When aortic size is adjusted for body surface area there is only a modest sex difference in AAA prevalence. This observation has potential implications in the context of the ongoing discussion regarding AAA screening in women.