Risk predictors of progression to severe disease during the febrile phase of dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Dengue severity by serotype and immune status in 19 years of pediatric clinical studies in Nicaragua

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus, a major global health threat, consists of four serotypes (DENV1-4) that cause a range of clinical manifestations from mild to severe and potentially fatal disease.

METHODS

This study, based on 19 years of data from the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study and Pediatric Dengue Hospital-based Study in Managua, Nicaragua, investigates the relationship of serotype and immune status with dengue severity. Dengue cases were confirmed by molecular, serological, and/or virological methods, and study participants 6 months to 17 years old were followed during their hospital stay or as ambulatory patients.

RESULTS

We enrolled a total of 15,833 participants, of whom 3,308 (21%) were positive for DENV infection. Of 2,644 cases with serotype result by RT-PCR, 559 corresponded to DENV1, 1,002 to DENV2, 760 to DENV3 and 323 to DENV4. Severe disease was more prevalent among secondary DENV2 and DENV4 cases, while similar disease severity was observed in both primary and secondary DENV1 and DENV3 cases. According to the 1997 World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, both DENV2 and DENV3 caused a higher proportion of severe disease compared to other serotypes, whereas DENV3 caused the greatest percentage of severity according to the WHO-2009 classification. DENV2 was associated with increased odds of pleural effusion and low platelet count, while DENV3 was associated with both hypotensive and compensated shock.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate differences in dengue severity by serotype and immune status and emphasize the critical need for a dengue vaccine with balanced effectiveness against all four serotypes, particularly as existing vaccines show variable efficacy by serotype and serostatus.

Simultaneous detection of dengue virus serotypes in a dual-serotype-detection nucleic acid based lateral flow assay

Dengue virus (DENV) is an important arthropod-borne viral disease, with four antigenically and genetically diverse serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4). Timely and accurate diagnosis of dengue virus serotypes is crucial for the management of outbreaks. This study focussed on the development of a RT-PCR based lateral flow strip assay to detect DENV serotypes in a dual detection manner without using gel electrophoresis. The assay uses anti-biotin/streptavidin colloidal gold conjugates with fluorescent/enzymatic tagged DENV serotype specific antibodies for the direct detection of DENV infected serum samples on a nitrocellulose membrane using biotin-BSA as control line. The detection limit of the assay was up to 10 copies of cDNA for DENV-1 and 100 copies for DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4. In house evaluation of DENV LFIA demonstrated 100 % sensitivity in all the serotypes compared to conventional RT-PCR, 100 % specificity for DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and 95 % specificity for DENV-4 detection. DENV serotyping was assessed in a dual detection manner (DENV-1/DENV-3 and DENV-2/DENV-4 at two test lines) on the strip. The limitation of the assay is the requirement of PCR for initial amplification and confirmation of individual serotype in case of DENV-1/DENV-3 and DENV-2/DENV-4 detection, besides the field evaluation of the assay detected DENV-2 and DENV-3 serotypes, and no other serotype was detected in line with RT-PCR findings.

Early circulating biomarkers to predict plasma leakage in dengue fever

BACKGROUND

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infection, poses a rapidly growing burden, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Without early identification of patients at risk of severe outcomes (dengue haemorrhagic fever, severe dengue, and plasma leakage- the latter typically occurring on days 5-7 of illness), untriaged admissions lead to hospital overcrowding and suboptimal care.

METHODS

This nested case-control study compared early-stage plasma samples (within the first 96 hours of fever) from dengue patients with and without plasma leakage. Thirty-four potential biomarkers, selected through systematic review, were tested on a multiplex bead-based immunoassay platform. Subgroup analysis stratified patients by primary or secondary dengue infection.

FINDINGS

A total of 228 patient samples (114 had plasma leakage) were tested. Elevated Vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (OR:3.289, 95% CI: 1.090-9.926, p<0.05), and Interleukin 33 receptor levels (OR: 2.677, 95% CI: 1.244-5.856, p<0.05) were associated with an increased risk of plasma leakage while eotaxin-1 was associated with a decreased risk (OR: 0.166, 95% CI: 0.057-0.483, p<0.05). When adjusted for prior dengue exposure, additional biomarkers (C-X-C motif chemokine 11, serum amyloid A) were also associated with plasma leakage.

INTERPRETATION

Plasma leakage in dengue, being more objectively measurable than other severe outcomes, offers a reliable endpoint for biomarker studies. Identifying biomarkers that predict plasma leakage strengthens the evidence base in dengue research. These biomarkers could improve clinical assessment and patient care in dengue cases.

Fatal dengue virus infection in an unvaccinated traveler

Dengue is an increasing threat to individuals living in or visiting endemic countries. Effective vaccines have become available, but their use in travelers is typically only recommended to individuals with documented prior infection. We present a fatal case of severe dengue in an unvaccinated traveler without known prior dengue virus infection but longitudinal serologic and molecular evidence for secondary infection. In the context of this case and vaccination guidance for travelers, we discuss pre-vaccination screening, potential implications for travelers to regions with ongoing outbreaks, and emphasize the importance of serostatus-independent vaccines.

Per vaginal bleeding-an important but ignored feature of dengue

Background

Elderly individuals, those with comorbidities and pregnant women are at a higher risk of developing severe dengue and succumbing to their illness. However, an increased incidence of severe dengue and fatalities are seen in females of the reproductive age. As per vaginal (PV) bleeding is an important complication that has not been well characterized, we sought to determine the frequency, complications and disease outcomes in women who develop PV bleeding.

Methodology/Principal findings

288 adult female patients were recruited from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases Sri Lanka. All clinical features and laboratory investigations were recorded throughout the duration of hospital admission along with treatment received.28/288 (9.72%) reported PV bleeding, with 12/28 (42.85%) developing dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) compared to 65/260 (25%) of those who did not have bleeding.Women who developed PV bleeding were more likely to have developed DHF (OR 2.2, 95% CI 0.98 to 5.1, p=0.06), abdominal pain (OR=2.17, 95% CI = 0.99 to 4.69, p = 0.06), vomiting (OR= 2.0, 95% CI= 0.89 to 4.44, p= 0.10), diarhoea (OR= 4.35, 95% CI = 1.908 to 9.610, p= 0.0004) or evidence of any fluid leakage (OR= 1.98, 95% CI = 0.91 to 4.5, p = 0.11). Although not significant, those who had PV bleeding were more likely to have been given intravenous fluids, blood transfusions and colloids.

Conclusions

PV bleeding appears to associate with worse disease outcomes. The possible contribution of PV bleeding to higher incidence of severe dengue and fatality rates observed in many countries, should be further investigated.

Current epidemiology of infectious encephalitis: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

Infectious encephalitis poses a global health challenge with a high mortality and severe neurological consequences in survivors. Emerging pathogens and outbreaks are reshaping the patterns of the disease.

OBJECTIVE

To understand the current epidemiology for improving prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

SOURCES

MEDLINE/PubMed was searched using "encephalitis" and related MeSH terms from 2020 to September 2024. Population-based and case-control studies on encephalitis were searched for without time restrictions. Other studies known by the authors were also included.

CONTENT

The incidence of infectious encephalitis ranged from 1.4 to 13.8 cases per 100,000 per year with a bimodal peak in infants and older adults. Herpes viruses remain the most common causes of sporadic encephalitis with Herpes simplex virus type 1 and Varicella Zoster virus reported most frequently. In endemic regions, arboviruses such as Japanese encephalitis virus and West Nile virus contribute significantly to the disease burden. Climate change is adding to the spread of these vector-borne viruses and thereby both altering the geographic distribution of causative agents and increasing the frequency of outbreaks. Evidence on risk factors associated to encephalitis is scarce and hampered by the absence of population-based case-control studies. The prognosis of infectious encephalitis remains unchanged during recent decades with high case-fatality rates and may vary according to e.g. aetiology, age, and presence of immuno-compromising conditions or other comorbidities. Importantly, a substantial proportion of survivors are left with disabling neurological sequalae.

IMPLICATIONS

The findings underscore the importance of public health surveillance and prevention strategies to address the changing epidemiology of encephalitis. This can be pursued through vaccination programs and vector control efforts. Future research should focus on identifying risk factors, improving diagnostic tools, optimizing current treatment as well as exploring novel therapies for patients with encephalitis. Timely treatment and specialised post-hospital rehabilitation remain essential for patient management.

Dengue

This JAMA Insights explores several aspects of dengue virus infection, including epidemiology, diagnosis, and clinical management, following a global resurgence in both endemic and nonendemic regions.

Significance of diagnostic and therapeutic potential of serum endothelial and inflammatory biomarkers in defining disease severity of dengue infected patients

Dengue virus (DENV) mediated disease severity leads to fatality among infected patients. Immune sentinels recognize DENV thereby secreting inflammatory mediators, endothelial biomarkers and anticoagulation factors. Absence of any diagnostic biomarkers for early identification of severe dengue (SD) patients has hindered disease management. Present study is aimed to evaluate diagnostic potential of these biomarkers along with their therapeutic targets for disease severity. Dengue infection was screened among 214 symptomatic patients and 25 healthy individuals by qRT-PCR, NS1-antigen, anti-dengue-IgM, anti-dengue-IgG ELISA and categorized them according to WHO-classification, 2009. Dengue viral-load and serotypes were determined by qRT-PCR. Serum-protein concentrations of inflammatory mediators (MIF, PAF, MMP2, MMP9, MCP1, RANTES, STNFRI, ST2, EOTAXIN), endothelial biomarkers (SDC1, VEGF, ANGPT2), anticoagulation factors (sTM, vWF, TF, PAI) were determined by sandwich ELISA. Statistical, PPI-network, hub-proteins, drug prediction analysis were performed by GraphPad-Prism9, STRING, Cytoscape-cytoHubba, DrugBank online, TTD, respectively. Among 81 dengue infected patients, significantly higher levels of MIF, PAF, sTNFRI, MMP9, VEGF, ANGPT2, MMP2, RANTES, SDC1 were detected among SD patients compared to non-severe ones, with excellent and good diagnostic potential of first (> 77.11, > 57.57 ng/ml, > 3226 pg/ml) and next three (> 105.3 ng/ml, > 12,380, > 8284 pg/ml) biomarkers, respectively. Serum MIF, PAF, MMP9, sTNFRI levels were significantly higher among hospitalized (p-value: 0.0081-0.0499), high-viral-load (p-value: 0.0266-0.0466) and DENV-2, 4 (p-value: < 0.0001-0.0298) infected patients. PPI-network analysed MMP9, PAI, vWF, ANGPT2, sTM, sTNFRI, MIF as hub-proteins targeted by FDA-approved/experimental drugs. This study recognized serum-biomarkers: MIF, PAF, sTNFRI, MMP9, VEGF, ANGPT2 to have significant diagnostic potential for identification of SD cases.

A machine learning-based risk score for prediction of mechanical ventilation in children with dengue shock syndrome: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with severe dengue who develop severe respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) support have significantly increased mortality rates. This study aimed to develop a robust machine learning-based risk score to predict the need for MV in children with dengue shock syndrome (DSS) who developed acute respiratory failure.

METHODS

This single-institution retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary pediatric hospital in Vietnam between 2013 and 2022. The primary outcome was severe respiratory failure requiring MV in the children with DSS. Key covariables were predetermined by the LASSO method, literature review, and clinical expertise, including age (< 5 years), female patients, early onset day of DSS (≤ day 4), large cumulative fluid infusion, higher colloid-to-crystalloid fluid infusion ratio, severe bleeding, severe transaminitis, low platelet counts (< 20 x 109/L), elevated hematocrit, and high vasoactive-inotropic score. These covariables were analyzed using supervised models, including Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis was used to assess feature contribution.

RESULTS

A total of 1,278 patients were included, with a median patient age of 8.1 years (IQR: 5.4-10.7). Among them, 170 patients (13.3%) with DSS required mechanical ventilation. A significantly higher fatality rate was observed in the MV group than that in the non-MV group (22.4% vs. 0.1%). The RF and SVM models showed the highest model discrimination. The SHAP model explained the significant predictors. Internal validation of the predictive model showed high consistency between the predicted and observed data, with a good slope calibration in training (test) sets 1.0 (0.934), and a low Brier score of 0.04. Complete-case analysis was used to construct the risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a robust machine learning-based risk score to estimate the need for MV in hospitalized children with DSS.

PEDIATRIC DENGUE IN NONENDEMIC AREAS: THE IMPORTANCE OF THE AWARENESS TO DETECT NEW CASES AND WARNING SIGNS: A CASE REPORT

A substantial increase in dengue cases has been reported globally lately, particularly in the Region of the Americas. Children have a higher risk of severity, so it is important to be aware of dengue clinical courses. We present an unusual pediatric case of imported primary dengue infection with warning signs diagnosed in a nonendemic area.

Impact of prior dengue infection on severity and outcomes: meta-analysis of placebo-controlled trials

Objective

This study evaluated the association between serologically confirmed prior dengue infection and the subsequent risk of virologically confirmed dengue, severe dengue, dengue hospitalization, dengue-related death and all-cause mortality.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. PubMed, CINAHL, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched for reports of phase III randomized controlled trials of vaccine efficacy that had data about the placebo group and information about prior infections and were published between January 1994 and March 2024. Random-effects models were used to calculate combined odds ratios (ORs), and heterogeneity was assessed.

Results

Four studies from three phase III trials were included. Participants with prior infection had a lower likelihood of developing virologically confirmed dengue during follow up (OR: 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75 to 0.98, P = 0.024) and the same risk of dengue hospitalization as those without prior infection (OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.53, P = 0.198). However, they had a higher rate of severe dengue (OR: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.23 to 6.87, P = 0.015). No dengue-related deaths occurred during follow up. There were no statistically significant differences in all-cause mortality between individuals with and without prior dengue (OR: 1.74, 95% CI: 0.21 to 14.08, P = 0.76).

Conclusions

Prior dengue infection significantly reduced the risk of virologically confirmed dengue and increased the risk of severe dengue, but had no significant effect on dengue hospitalization, dengue-related death or all-cause mortality during follow up. These findings suggest the need to reconsider prior infection as an independent risk factor.

Dengue fever in immunocompromised patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Given the complex role of immunity in dengue severity, we aimed to review the clinical course of dengue infection in immunocompromised patients.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of studies reporting outcomes among immunocompromised patients with laboratory-confirmed dengue infection. Meta-analysis using the Mantel-Haenszel method (fixed effects) was performed for studies with control groups. We registered the study with PROSPERO (No. CRD42021258930).

RESULTS

We included 115 studies. Among these, 30 studies compared immunocompromised (cases) and nonimmunocompromised (control) patients, focusing mainly on children (n = 22 studies) with malnutrition (n=18). Immunocompromised patients had a higher likelihood of dengue complications (OR 1.87; 95% CI: 1.04-3.35]) but a lower likelihood of severe dengue (OR 0.83; 95% CI: 0.69-1.00]. No significant difference in mortality was observed. In the 85 studies focused solely on immunocompromised patients, severe dengue and mortality rates were 9% and 4%, respectively, mostly among adult solid organ transplant recipients and those with inflammatory diseases. Immunosuppressive treatment alterations and temporary graft dysfunction were reported.

CONCLUSION

Immunocompromised patients have an increased risk of dengue-related complications. However, definitive conclusions about the comparative severity of dengue across different immunocompromised patient groups are limited by a lack of robust data, highlighting the need for well-designed future studies.

Nine fatal cases of dengue: a case series from an intensive care unit in Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

The case fatality rate of untreated dengue is 20%; it can be reduced to less than 1% with optimal management. The leading causes of death in dengue patients are shock, bleeding, and acute liver injury. We describe the clinical features of patients who died of dengue and discuss the therapeutic challenges and pitfalls of complicated dengue.

METHODS

This retrospective study was done in the intensive care unit (MICU) of the National Hospital of Sri Lanka over 30 months between 2021 and 2023. All patients who died of serologically confirmed dengue were incorporated.

RESULTS

Of the 1722 ICU admissions, 44 (2.6%) patients were treated for dengue-of them, 11 (25.0%) died. Two patients were excluded as their deaths were not directly linked to dengue. Six were females. The average age was 40.2 years. The leading causes of death included shock (n = 5), acute liver failure (n = 6), intracranial bleeding (n = 2), and pulmonary embolism (n = 1). Patient 1 had concomitant leakage and bleeding, which did not respond to fluids or blood products. He developed fluid overload and acute liver failure (ALF) and died of multiorgan dysfunction. Patients 2-5 were in shock for a prolonged period due to leakage ± bleeding. Patients 2-5 developed ALF and lactic acidosis followed by multiorgan dysfunction. Patient 8 developed acute hepatitis and ALF without preceding shock. The patient was treated with immunosuppressants for myasthenia gravis. Patients 6 and 7 experienced intracranial bleeding. Patient 9 died of pulmonary embolism after prolonged ventilation for dengue encephalitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Prolonged shock, fluid overload and acute liver failure were common causes of dengue related deaths, in our study. Fluid overload occurred when vigorous crystalloid resuscitation was continued in patients who were poorly responding. A prompt switch to colloids or blood could have prevented overload. Patients who were in shock for a prolonged period become unresponsive to fluid resuscitation. How to manage dengue in patients who take anti-inflammatory drugs, immunomodulators, or antiplatelets is not known. Balancing the bleeding risk of dengue in patients predisposed to bleeding or thrombosis is a challenge.

Are viral loads in the febrile phase a predictive factor of dengue disease severity?

BACKGROUND

As many studies have shown conflicting results regarding the extent of viraemia and clinical disease severity, we sought to investigate if viraemia during early dengue illness is associated with subsequent clinical disease severity.

METHODS

Realtime PCR was carried out to identify the dengue virus (DENV serotype), in 362 patients, presenting within the first 4 days of illness, from 2017 to 2022, in Colombo Sri Lanka. To characterize subsequent clinical disease severity, all patients were followed throughout their illness daily and disease severity classified according to WHO 1997 and 2009 disease classification.

RESULTS

263 patients had DF, 99 progressed to develop DHF, and 15/99 with DHF developed shock (DSS). Although the viral loads were higher in the febrile phase in patients who progressed to develop DHF than in patients with DF this was not significant (p = 0.5). Significant differences were observed in viral loads in patients infected with different DENV serotypes (p = 0.0009), with lowest viral loads detected in DENV2 and the highest viral loads in DENV3. Sub-analysis for association of viraemia with disease severity for each DENV serotype was again not significant. Although those infected with DENV2 had lower viral loads, infection with DENV2 was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing DHF (p = 0.011, Odds ratio 1.9; 95% CI 1.164 to 3.078). Based on the WHO 2009 disease classification, 233 had dengue with warning signs (DWW), 114 dengue without warning signs (DWoWS), and 15 had severe dengue (SD). No significant difference was observed in the viral loads between those with SD, DWW and DWoWS (p = 0.27).

CONCLUSIONS

Viral loads were significantly different in the febrile phase between different DENV serotypes, and do not appear to significantly associate with subsequent clinical disease severity in a large Sri Lankan cohort.

C1q modulation of antibody-dependent enhancement of dengue virus infection in human myeloid cell lines is dependent on cell type and antibody specificity

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of dengue virus (DENV) infection is one of the mechanisms contributing to increased severity during heterotypic, secondary infection. The complement protein C1q has been shown to reduce the magnitude of ADE in vitro. Therefore, we investigated the mechanisms of C1q modulation of ADE, focusing on processes of viral entry. Using a model of ADE of DENV-1 infection in human myeloid cell lines in the presence of monoclonal antibodies, 4G2 and 2H2, we found that C1q produced nearly a 40-fold reduction of ADE of DENV-1 in K562 cells, but had no effect in U937 cells. In K562 cells, C1q reduced adsorption of DENV-1/4G2 and exerted a dual inhibitory effect on adsorption and internalization of DENV-1/2H2. Distinct endocytic pathways in the presence of antibody corresponded to conditions where C1q produced a differential action. Also, C1q did not affect the intrinsic cell response mediated by FcγR in human myeloid cells. The modulation of ADE of DENV-1 by C1q is dependent on the FcγR expressed on immune cells and the specificity of the antibody comprising the immune complex. Understanding protective and pathogenic mechanisms in the humoral response to DENV infections is crucial for the successful design of antivirals and vaccines.

Secondary Dengue Infection Elicits Earlier Elevations in IL-6 and IL-10 Levels

This study investigates the kinetics of interleukine-6 (IL-6) and interleukine-10 (IL-10) levels in dengue virus (DENV) infections during the febrile stage. Viremic patients were categorized into two phases based on anti-DENV IgM presence. Among 259 patients, 71% were in Phase I and 29% in Phase II. Secondary infections, accounting for 38.2% of cases, exhibited earlier elevations of IL-6 and IL-10 than primary infections, suggesting that pre-existing immune memory primes faster cytokine release. Thrombocytopenia and elevated aspartate transaminase (AST) levels were associated with Phase II, secondary infections, and hospitalization. Elevated IL-6 and IL-10 levels correlated with low platelet counts, linking them to clinical manifestations. The key finding is that IL-6 and IL-10 levels rise earlier in secondary infections compared to primary infections, whereas elevated cytokine levels typically occur later in the febrile phase. This study highlights the importance of cytokine dynamics in DENV infections, particularly during the early stages. The observation of cytokine concentration changes, especially in viremic samples, provides insights into the progression of dengue disease. Further research with broader cytokine panels is warranted to validate and expand these findings.

Immune responses and severe dengue: what have we learned?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

With the marked rise in dengue globally, developing well tolerated and effective vaccines and therapeutics is becoming more important. Here we discuss the recent developments in the understanding of immune mechanisms that lead to severe dengue and the learnings from the past, that can help us to find therapeutic targets, prognostic markers, and vaccines to prevent development of severe disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

The extent and duration of viraemia often appears to be associated with clinical disease severity but with some variability. However, there also appear to be significant differences in the kinetics of viraemia and nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) antigenemia and pathogenicity between different serotypes and genotypes of the DENV. These differences may have significant implications for development of treatments and in inducing robust immunity through dengue vaccines. Although generally higher levels of neutralizing antibodies are thought to protect against infection and severe disease, there have been exceptions and the specificity, breadth and functionality of the antibody responses are likely to be important.

SUMMARY

Although there have been many advances in our understanding of dengue pathogenesis, viral and host factors associated with occurrence of severe dengue, vascular leak and the immune correlates of protection remain poorly understood.

Severe Organ Impairment Was Common in Elderly Individuals with Dengue in Guangdong, China

Guangdong, China, has experienced several dengue epidemics involving thousands of confirmed cases in recent decades, and elderly individuals suffered severe dengue (SD) most seriously. However, the clinical characteristics and risk factors for SD among elderly patients in Guangdong have not been investigated. Patients older than 65 years were recruited and divided into a dengue fever (DF) group and an SD group according to the 2009 Dengue Guidelines of the WHO. We analyzed the clinical manifestations of the elderly patients with dengue and then assessed the risk factors for SD. Of a total of 1,027 patients, 868 patients were diagnosed as having DF and 159 as having SD. Of the 159 elderly patients with SD, 129 (81%) had comorbidities, with hypertension being the most common. Severe organ impairment (SOI) (115, 54%) was the most common presentation in SD patients, followed by severe plasma leakage (52, 24.4%) and severe hemorrhage (46, 21.6%). The most common symptom of SOI was kidney injury, followed by heart injury and central nervous system injury. Furthermore, multivariate regression revealed that the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a lower red blood cell (RBC) count (≤3.5 × 1012/L; odds ratio [OR], 0.35; 95% CI, 0.17-0.55; P <0.001), lower serum albumin (ALB) (≤35 U/L; OR, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.09-0.32; P <0.001), and hyperpyrexia (body temperature ≥39°C; OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.6, P <0.001) were risk factors for SD. Severe organ impairment was the predominant manifestation in elderly individuals with SD characterized by kidney injury. The potential risk factors of SD such as presence of COPD and hyperpyrexia and lower RBC and ALB levels might help clinicians identify patients with SD early.

Dengue NS1 interaction with lipids alters its pathogenic effects on monocyte derived macrophages

BACKGROUND

While dengue NS1 antigen has been shown to be associated with disease pathogenesis in some studies, it has not been linked in other studies, with the reasons remaining unclear. NS1 antigen levels in acute dengue are often associated with increased disease severity, but there has been a wide variation in results based on past dengue infection and infecting dengue virus (DENV) serotype. As NS1 engages with many host lipids, we hypothesize that the type of NS1-lipid interactions alters its pathogenicity.

METHODS

Primary human monocyte derived macrophages (MDMs) were co-cultured with NS1 alone or with HDL, LDL, LPS and/or platelet activating factor (PAF) from individuals with a history of past dengue fever (DF = 8) or dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF = 8). IL-1β levels were measured in culture supernatants, and gene expression analysis carried out in MDMs. Monocyte subpopulations were assessed by flow cytometry. Hierarchical cluster analysis with Euclidean distance calculations were used to differentiate clusters. Differentially expressed variables were extracted and a classifier model was developed to differentiate between past DF and DHF.

RESULTS

Significantly higher levels of IL-1β were seen in culture supernatants when NS1 was co-cultured with LDL (p = 0.01, median = 45.69 pg/ml), but lower levels when NS1 was co-cultured with HDL (p = 0.05, median = 4.617 pg/ml). MDMs of those with past DHF produced higher levels of IL-1β when NS1 was co-cultured with PAF (p = 0.02). MDMs of individuals with past DHF, were significantly more likely to down-regulate RPLP2 gene expression when macrophages were co-cultured with either PAF alone, or NS1 combined with PAF, or NS1 combined with LDL. When NS1 was co-cultured with PAF, HDL or LDL two clusters were detected based on IL10 expression, but these did not differentiate those with past DF or DHF.

CONCLUSIONS

As RPLP2 is important in DENV replication, regulating cellular stress responses and immune responses and IL-10 is associated with severe disease, it would be important to further explore how differential expression of RPLP2 and IL-10 could lead to disease pathogenesis based on NS1 and lipid interactions.

A Case of Emergency Pericardial Drainage for Cardiac Tamponade Due to Dengue Fever

Dengue fever is a febrile viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The symptoms of dengue fever are numerous and varied; however, cardiac tamponade is a particularly rare and atypical complication. This study describes a case of a 30-year-old male who presented with acute respiratory distress and chest pain on the ninth day after diagnosis of dengue fever. On admission, a computed tomography scan revealed a large pericardial effusion. The patient went into shock and was urgently treated with pericardial drainage, which resulted in rapid improvement of his symptoms. Emergent management of this rare but potentially fatal complication of dengue fever resulted in a favorable outcome in this case.

Central and Peripheral Nervous System Manifestations Associated with Dengue Illness

Dengue illness, caused by the dengue viruses, continues to be a major global health concern, with increasing incidence and the emergence of severe manifestations such as neurological complications. An overview of the current understanding of dengue epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and research priorities is presented here. Dengue transmission has escalated in recent years, exacerbated by factors such as vector expansion, climate change, and socioeconomic challenges. The clinical spectrum of dengue ranges from mild febrile illness to severe manifestations, including hemorrhagic fever and neurological complications. Neurological manifestations of dengue, once considered rare, are now increasingly reported, encompassing encephalitis, myelitis, and Guillain-Barré Syndrome, among others. Diagnosis primarily relies on laboratory methods such as RT/PCR, NS1 antigen detection, and serological assays. Despite advancements in understanding the dengue pathogenesis, there remains a critical need for effective vaccines, antiviral drugs, improved surveillance methods, predictive models for disease severity, and long-term studies on post-Dengue sequelae. Integrated programs and holistic approaches to dengue control are essential for mitigating its impact. Addressing these research priorities will be pivotal in combating dengue and reducing its global burden.

Are viral loads in the febrile phase a predictive factor of dengue disease severity?

Background

As many studies have shown conflicting results regarding the extent of viraemia and clinical disease severity, we sought to investigate if viraemia during early dengue illness is associated with subsequent clinical disease severity.

Methods

Realtime PCR was carried out to identify the dengue virus (DENV serotype), in 362 patients, presenting within the first 4 days of illness, from 2017 to 2022, in Colombo Sri Lanka. To characterize subsequent clinical disease severity, all patients were followed throughout their illness daily and disease severity classified according to WHO 1997 and 2009 disease classification.

Results

263 patients had DF, 99 progressed to develop DHF, and 15/99 with DHF developed shock (DSS). Although the viral loads were higher in the febrile phase in patients who progressed to develop DHF than in patients with DF this was not significant (p=0.5). Significant differences were observed in viral loads in patients infected with different DENV serotypes (p=0.0009), with lowest viral loads detected in DENV2 and the highest viral loads in DENV3. Sub-analysis for association of viraemia with disease severity for each DENV serotyped was again not significant. Although those infected with DENV2 had lower viral loads, infection with DENV2 was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing DHF (p=0.011, Odds ratio 1.9; 95% CI 1.164 to 3.078). Based on the WHO 2009 disease classification, 233 had dengue with warning signs (DWW), 114 dengue without warning signs (DWoWS), and 15 had severe dengue (SD). No significant difference was observed in the viral loads between those with SD, DWW and DWoWS (p=0.27).

Conclusions

Viral loads were significantly different in the febrile phase between different DENV serotypes, and do not appear to significantly associate with subsequent clinical disease severity in a large Sri Lankan cohort.

An effective pan-serotype dengue vaccine and enhanced control strategies could help in reducing the severe dengue burden in Bangladesh-A perspective

Dengue is an important vector-borne disease occurring globally. Dengue virus (DENV) infection can result in a potentially life-threatening disease. To date, no DENV-specific antiviral treatment is available. Moreover, an equally effective pan-serotype dengue virus vaccine is not available. Recently, two DENV vaccines, Dengvaxia and Qdenga, were licensed for limited use. However, none of them have been approved in Bangladesh. DENV is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, and global warming caused by climate change favoring Aedes breeding plays an important role in increasing DENV infections in Bangladesh. Dengue is a serious public health concern in Bangladesh. In the year 2023, Bangladesh witnessed its largest dengue outbreak, with the highest number of dengue cases (n = 321,179) and dengue-related deaths (n = 1,705) in a single epidemic year. There is an increased risk of severe dengue in individuals with preexisting DENV-specific immunoglobulin G if the individuals become infected with different DENV serotypes. To date, vector control has remained the mainstay for controlling dengue; therefore, an immediate, strengthened, and effective vector control program is critical and should be regularly performed for controlling dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh. In addition, the use of DENV vaccine in curbing dengue epidemics in Bangladesh requires more consideration and judgment by the respective authority of Bangladesh. This review provides perspectives on the control and prevention of dengue outbreaks. We also discuss the challenges of DENV vaccine use to reduce dengue epidemics infection in Bangladesh.

Mathematical analysis and prediction of future outbreak of dengue on time-varying contact rate using machine learning approach

This article introduces a novel mathematical model analyzing the dynamics of Dengue in the recent past, specifically focusing on the 2023 outbreak of this disease. The model explores the patterns and behaviors of dengue fever in Bangladesh. Incorporating a sinusoidal function reveals significant mid-May to Late October outbreak predictions, aligning with the government's exposed data in our simulation. For different amplitudes (A) within a sequence of values (A = 0.1 to 0.5), the highest number of infected mosquitoes occurs in July. However, simulations project that when βM = 0.5 and A = 0.1, the peak of human infections occurs in late September. Not only the next-generation matrix approach along with the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are observed, but also a cutting-edge Machine learning (ML) approach such as the Prophet model is explored for forecasting future Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh. Remarkably, we have fitted our solution curve of infection with the reported data by the government of Bangladesh. We can predict the outcome of 2024 based on the ML Prophet model situation of Dengue will be detrimental and proliferate 25 % compared to 2023. Finally, the study marks a significant milestone in understanding and managing Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Incidence of acute liver failure and its associated mortality in patients with dengue infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a devastating consequence of dengue infection. This systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the incidence of ALF in dengue infection and its associated mortality. We systematically searched the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases from inception to December 2023 for observational studies reporting ALF incidence and mortality in dengue patients. Twenty-one studies encompassing 26,839 dengue-infected patients were included. Meta-analysis revealed a pooled incidence of ALF in cases of general dengue infection of 2.0 % (95 % CI, 1.2-3.0 %), with 1.2 % (95 % CI, 0.6-2.1 %) in adults and 5.0 % (95 % CI, 1.5-10.2 %) in children. ALF incidence was 17.3 % (95 % CI, 6.5 %-31.5 %) in severe dengue and 7.4 % (95 % CI, 0.8-18.5 %) in dengue shock syndrome. The pooled mortality rate of dengue-associated ALF was 47.0 % (95 % CI, 32.9-61.2 %). These findings underscore the detrimental impact of dengue infection on the development of the relatively uncommon, albeit life-threatening, condition of ALF.

A simple nomogram to predict dengue shock syndrome: A study of 4522 south east Asian children

Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) substantially worsens the prognosis of children with dengue infection. This study aimed to develop a simple clinical tool to predict the risk of DSS. A cohort of 2221 Thai children with a confirmed dengue infection who were admitted to King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital between 1987 and 2007 was conducted. Another data set from a previous publication comprising 2,301 Vietnamese children with dengue infection was employed to create a pooled data set, which was randomly split into training (n = 3182), testing (n = 697) and validating (n = 643) datasets. Logistic regression was compared to alternative machine learning algorithms to derive the most predictive model for DSS. 4522 children, including 899 DSS cases (758 Thai and 143 Vietnamese children) with a mean age of 9.8 ± 3.4 years, were analyzed. Among the 12 candidate clinical parameters, the Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm retained the most predictive subset of five covariates, including body weight, history of vomiting, liver size, hematocrit levels, and platelet counts. At an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81-0.90) in testing data set, logistic regression outperformed random forest, XGBoost and support vector machine algorithms, with AUC values being 0.82 (0.77-0.88), 0.82 (0.76-0.88), and 0.848 (0.81-0.89), respectively. At its optimal threshold, this model had a sensitivity of 0.71 (0.62-0.80), a specificity of 0.84 (0.81-0.88), and an accuracy of 0.82 (0.78-0.85) on validating data set with consistent performance across subgroup analyses by age and gender. A logistic regression-based nomogram was developed to facilitate the application of this model. This work introduces a simple and robust clinical model for DSS prediction that is well-tailored for children in resource-limited settings.

Early-phase factors associated with pediatric severe dengue in the Thai-Myanmar cross-border region

BACKGROUND

Dengue disease is caused by dengue virus, which is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Although most infected individuals have benign febrile illness or no apparent symptoms, a small percentage develop severe dengue, a potentially fatal condition that occurs after a febrile stage. Many studies have identified factors predicting dengue severity among different populations and time courses. To help find practical approaches applicable in remote settings, we focused on the investigation of early factors associated with severe dengue in Thai-Myanmar cross-border region.

METHODS

This retrospective case-control study was performed to determine factors contributing to severe dengue in the pediatric population. We reviewed the hospital records of patients with dengue infection aged 0-19 years who were admitted to Maesot General Hospital, situated near the Thai-Myanmar cross-border region, between 2017 and 2022. Medical data during the first 5 days of illness and outcomes were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

This study included 144 patients with a serologically confirmed diagnosis of dengue infection, with 43 severe and 101 non-severe cases. Among biological factors, being an infant and belonging to an ethnic group in Myanmar showed a significant association with severe dengue in the univariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that the presence of mucosal bleeding (adjusted OR 5.39, 95% CI 1.06-27.52, P = 0.043), a change in hematocrit ≥ 10% (adjusted OR 3.68, 95% CI 1.15-11.74, P = 0.028), and serum albumin < 35 g/L (adjusted OR 8.10, 95% CI 2.55-25.72, P < 0.001) during the first 5 days of illness were significantly associated with developing severe dengue.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the use of certain WHO warning signs and hematocrit change during febrile phase to predict pediatric severe dengue in low-resource settings. Potential factors such as very young age and ethnic groups warrant further exploration to identify risks contributing to severe dengue infection.

Mucocutaneous Manifestations in Patients with Dengue Fever: From the EPIDENGUE Cohort on Reunion Island

Nearly 4 billion people live in a dengue risk area worldwide. The prevalence of dengue-related mucocutaneous manifestations and their association with severe dengue differ across studies. The aim of the study was to describe the characteristics of patients with dengue-related mucocutaneous manifestations and to investigate those were associated with severe dengue. A retrospective study was conducted in 2019 among patients with a positive RT-PCR for dengue at the University Hospital of Reunion, which has been experiencing a re-emergence of dengue since 2018. Of 847 patients with confirmed dengue, 283 (33.4%) developed mucocutaneous manifestations. Only manifestations of dehydration such as glossitis, dysgeusia, or conjunctivitis were associated with severe dengue, unlike pruritus and rash, in bivariate analysis but not in multivariate analysis. The rash and pruritus of dengue appear to be accompanied by a pronounced flu-like syndrome in younger people without comorbidity or severity, although careful examination of mucous membranes would better identify signs of dehydration and thus cases likely to worsen.

Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) as a Novel Score in Early Detection of Complicated Dengue Fever

Introduction

The occurrence of dengue fever presents a considerable burden for public health care in developing countries. This study aims to validate APRI as predictor score for severity of dengue fever so that catastrophic events could be prevented, and early triage can save lives.

Methods

The retrospective cross-sectional study was done on dengue positive patients from August to November 2023. APRI score was calculated for every patient at the time of admission. The primary end-point was non-complicated disease (Simple dengue fever) vs complicated disease (dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome). ROC curve was used to identify the role of APRI in prediction of dengue complication. Youden index was used to find the cut-off value of APRI along with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios. To further evaluate the role of APRI score, patients were divided into two groups, patients with APRI score greater and lesser than cut-off value. The qualitative variables among two groups were compared by chi-square testing. The predictors of complicated dengue were first determined by univariate regression analysis and then confirmed by multivariate regression analysis.

Results

The mean APRI score of 135 patients was 20.06 ± 6.31. AUC for APRI score was 0.93 (p < 0.0001) indicating that APRI score calculated at the time of admission is an excellent marker in determining the complicated dengue. The cut-off value for APRI score was 9.04 (sensitivity 84.91%, specificity 89.02%, p < 0.0001). The patients with APRI <9.04 mostly developed simple dengue fever (54.1%) vs DHF (4.4%) and DSS (1.5%), while patients with APRI >9.04 had more DHF (20.7%) and DSS (12.6%) vs simple dengue fever (6.7%). None of the patient died with APRI <9.04 while the mortality rate was 3.7% in patients with APRI >9.04.

Conclusion

The APRI score, calculated at the time of admission, is an excellent marker in determining the severe dengue.

Retrospective Analysis of Severe Dengue by Dengue Virus Serotypes in a Population with Social Security, Mexico 2023

BACKGROUND

Risk factors for severe dengue manifestations have been attributed to various factors, including specific serotypes, sex, and age. Mexico has seen the re-emergence of DENV-3, which has not circulated in a decade.

OBJECTIVE

To describe dengue serotypes by age, sex, and their association with disease severity in dengue-positive serum samples from epidemiological surveillance system units.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A descriptive analysis was conducted to evaluate the frequency of dengue severity by sex, age, disease quarter, geographical location, and dengue virus serotypes. The study was conducted using laboratory samples from confirmed dengue cases through RT-qPCR from the epidemiological surveillance laboratory network of the Mexican Social Security Institute, Mexico. Simple frequencies and proportions were calculated using the z-test for proportional differences between groups. Bivariate analysis with adjusted Chi2 was performed, and binary logistic regression models were constructed using the forward Wald method considering the model's predictive capacity. The measure of association was the odds ratio, with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was set to an alpha level of <0.05.

RESULTS

In 2023, 10,441 samples were processed for dengue RT-qPCR at the IMSS, with a predominance of serotype DENV-3 (64.4%). The samples were mostly from women (52.0%) and outpatient cases (63.3%). The distribution of dengue severity showed significant variations by age, with a lower proportion of severe cases in young children and a higher proportion in the 5- to 14-year-old group. Hospitalizations increased significantly with severity. Warm regions had more cases overall and severity. Cases were most frequent from July to September. While DENV-2 was associated with severity, DENV-4 was not. Binary regression identified higher risk in women, age extremes, and DENV-2, with an overall predictive model of 58.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Women, age groups at the extremes of life, and the DENV-2 serotype presented severe risk of dengue in a population with social security in Mexico during 2023.

Molecular mechanisms in the pathogenesis of dengue infections

Dengue is the most rapidly emerging climate-sensitive infection, and morbidity/mortality and disease incidence are rising markedly, leading to healthcare systems being overwhelmed. There are currently no specific treatments for dengue or prognostic markers to identify those who will progress to severe disease. Owing to an increase in the burden of illness and a change in epidemiology, many patients experience severe disease. Our limited understanding of the complex mechanisms of disease pathogenesis has significantly hampered the development of safe and effective treatments, vaccines, and biomarkers. We discuss the molecular mechanisms of dengue pathogenesis, the gaps in our knowledge, and recent advances, as well as the most crucial questions to be answered to enable the development of therapeutics, biomarkers, and vaccines.

Febrile Phase Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor and Olfactomedin 4 as Prognostic Biomarkers for Severe Dengue in Adults

BACKGROUND

Dengue cases continue to rise and can overwhelm healthcare systems during outbreaks. In dengue, neutrophil mediators, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and olfactomedin 4, and mast cell mediators, chymase and tryptase, have not been measured longitudinally across the dengue phases. The utility of these proteins as prognostic biomarkers for severe dengue has also not been assessed in an older adult population.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled 99 adults with dengue-40 dengue fever, 46 dengue with warning signs and 13 severe dengue, along with 30 controls. Plasma levels of suPAR, olfactomedin 4, chymase and tryptase were measured at the febrile, critical and recovery phases in dengue patients.

RESULTS

The suPAR levels were significantly elevated in severe dengue compared to the other dengue severities and controls in the febrile (P < .001), critical (P < .001), and recovery (P = .005) phases. In the febrile phase, suPAR was a prognostic biomarker of severe dengue, with an AUROC of 0.82. Using a cutoff derived from Youden's index (5.4 ng/mL) and an estimated prevalence of severe dengue (16.5%) in our healthcare institution, the sensitivity was 71.4% with a specificity of 87.9% in the febrile phase, and the positive and negative predictive values were 54.7% and 95.8%, respectively. Olfactomedin 4 was elevated in dengue patients but not in proportion to disease severity in the febrile phase (P = .04) There were no significant differences in chymase and tryptase levels between dengue patients and controls.

CONCLUSIONS

In adult dengue, suPAR may be a reliable prognostic biomarker for severe dengue in the febrile phase.

Using Computational Simulations Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Detect Dengue Complications

Dengue remains a globally prevalent and potentially fatal disease, affecting millions of people worldwide each year. Early and accurate detection of dengue complications is crucial to improving clinical outcomes and reducing the burden on healthcare systems. In this study, we explore the use of computational simulations based on fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to improve the detection of dengue complications. We propose an innovative approach that integrates clinical data into a computational model that mimics the decision-making process of a medical expert. Our method uses FCMs to model complexity and uncertainty in dengue. The model was evaluated in simulated scenarios with each of the dengue classifications. These maps allow us to represent and process vague and fuzzy information effectively, capturing relationships that often go unnoticed in conventional approaches. The results of the simulations show the potential of our approach to detecting dengue complications. This innovative strategy has the potential to transform the way clinical management of dengue is approached. This research is a starting point for further development of complication detection approaches for events of public health concern, such as dengue.

Harness risk stratification of diabetic patients with dengue in a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Identifying predictors of severe dengue (SD) is key for triage and management of patients as well as for advising travellers to countries where dengue is endemic. In this, meta-analyses have raised diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for SD and a prognostic factor for dengue-related mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess whether diabetic patients (DPs) are at increased risk for SD in comparison to non-diabetic patients (NDPs) in a setting of high prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and increasing endemicity for dengue.

METHODS

In a cohort study conducted during the 2019 dengue epidemic on Reunion Island, we estimated the risk ratios (RR) of DPs for SD (WHO 2009 definition), hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, critical care need or death in the ICU, and scales rating severity or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), among confirmed cases of dengue (positive RT-PCR or NS1 antigen).

RESULTS

In a Poisson regression model adjusted for age, gender and comorbidity, DPs were more likely to develop SD (adjusted RR: 1.46, 95%CI 1.10-1.95), to be hospitalised, admitted to the ICU, and need critical care or die in the ICU. Subgroup analyses identified female DPs, non-elderly DPs (< 65 years) and DPs with low Charlson score (< 3) to be at higher risk for SD, the two first subgroups trough more severe presentation (higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score-2 values; higher MODS scores, respectively). Male gender, age less than 65 years and mixed comorbidity were identified as prognostic factors for critical care need or death in the ICU, male and non-elderly DPs being more likely to develop MODS than their non-diabetic counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these data highlight the role of diabetes mellitus in the progression from dengue to SD through higher severity per se or the event of MODS.

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Frequency, Markers and Costs of Secondary Bacterial Infection in Pediatric Dengue

BACKGROUND

Secondary bacterial infection (SBI) occurs in a proportion of individuals with dengue and results in longer hospitalization, higher mortality, and increased health-related costs. However, the frequency, risk factors and predictive biomarkers of this comorbidity in pediatric dengue is partially known.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective multicenter study in a dengue hyperendemic region of Colombia, analyzing 1597 children from two pediatric cohorts. We included children with confirmed dengue (mild to severe disease) and evaluated the rate of SBI, their clinical characteristics, diagnostic predictors and attention costs. We also assessed the diagnostic performance of plasma interleukin (IL)-6 for detecting SBI in pediatric dengue.

RESULTS

The frequency of SBI in children with dengue with warning signs in cohorts 1 and 2 was 2.4% and 7.3%, respectively, and this rate reached 30.7% and 38.2% in children with severe disease. Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli were the more frequent infectious agents. Increased total leukocytes and C-reactive protein levels, as well as high IL-6 at hospital admission, in children <48 months of age were early indications of SBI in dengue. Higher rates of organ dysfunction, the requirement of a longer hospitalization and a 2.3-fold increase in attention costs were observed in SBI.

CONCLUSIONS

An important proportion of children with dengue course with SBI and exhibit higher morbidity. Elevated leukocytes, C-reactive protein and IL-6 in young children are early markers of SBI. Physicians should identify children with dengue and risk factors for SBI, microbiologically confirm the bacterial infection, and rationally and timely provide antimicrobial therapy.

Live, Attenuated, Tetravalent Butantan-Dengue Vaccine in Children and Adults

BACKGROUND

Butantan-Dengue Vaccine (Butantan-DV) is an investigational, single-dose, live, attenuated, tetravalent vaccine against dengue disease, but data on its overall efficacy are needed.

METHODS

In an ongoing phase 3, double-blind trial in Brazil, we randomly assigned participants to receive Butantan-DV or placebo, with stratification according to age (2 to 6 years, 7 to 17 years, and 18 to 59 years); 5 years of follow-up is planned. The objectives of the trial were to evaluate overall vaccine efficacy against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue of any serotype occurring more than 28 days after vaccination (the primary efficacy end point), regardless of serostatus at baseline, and to describe safety up to day 21 (the primary safety end point). Here, vaccine efficacy was assessed on the basis of 2 years of follow-up for each participant, and safety as solicited vaccine-related adverse events reported up to day 21 after injection. Key secondary objectives were to assess vaccine efficacy among participants according to dengue serostatus at baseline and according to the dengue viral serotype; efficacy according to age was also assessed.

RESULTS

Over a 3-year enrollment period, 16,235 participants received either Butantan-DV (10,259 participants) or placebo (5976 participants). The overall 2-year vaccine efficacy was 79.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 70.0 to 86.3) - 73.6% (95% CI, 57.6 to 83.7) among participants with no evidence of previous dengue exposure and 89.2% (95% CI, 77.6 to 95.6) among those with a history of exposure. Vaccine efficacy was 80.1% (95% CI, 66.0 to 88.4) among participants 2 to 6 years of age, 77.8% (95% CI, 55.6 to 89.6) among those 7 to 17 years of age, and 90.0% (95% CI, 68.2 to 97.5) among those 18 to 59 years of age. Efficacy against DENV-1 was 89.5% (95% CI, 78.7 to 95.0) and against DENV-2 was 69.6% (95% CI, 50.8 to 81.5). DENV-3 and DENV-4 were not detected during the follow-up period. Solicited systemic vaccine- or placebo-related adverse events within 21 days after injection were more common with Butantan-DV than with placebo (58.3% of participants, vs. 45.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

A single dose of Butantan-DV prevented symptomatic DENV-1 and DENV-2, regardless of dengue serostatus at baseline, through 2 years of follow-up. (Funded by Instituto Butantan and others; DEN-03-IB ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02406729, and WHO ICTRP number, U1111-1168-8679.).

APRI as a predictor of severe dengue fever

Introduction

The AST/platelet ratio index (APRI) is a well-researched indicator of liver fibrosis. Some studies have shown that APRI can be used as a predictor of severe dengue, but the data is limited. As dengue epidemics are common in our country with limited healthcare resources, we believe APRI can help emergency physicians/primary physicians in predicting the severity of dengue and plan for the appropriate use of limited healthcare resources.

Objective

1) To determine the utility of APRI as a predictor of severe dengue. 2) To determine the association of APRI with length of hospital stay and platelet requirement.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was done on patients presented to the Emergency Medicine department at Travancore Medicity Medical College with a positive Dengue NS1 antigen or IgM antibody.

Results

We found from the univariate analysis results that ALT > 74.5 IU/L has a sensitivity of 59.6 and a specificity of 76.3 (AUC: 0.696; 95% CI: 0.606-0.786), AST > 160.5 IU/L has a sensitivity of 42.3 and a specificity of 93.7 (AUC: 0.747; 95% CI: 0.665-0.829), and APRI > 3.2 has a sensitivity of 69.2 and a specificity of 84.2 (AUC: 0.806; 95% CI: 0.72-0.884) to predict severe dengue. Patients with an APRI of >3.2 required a mean hospital stay of 5.47 days (P = 0.005); 27 (81.8%) requiring platelet transfusion had an APRI of > 3.2 (P = 0.00).

Conclusion

APRI is a straightforward index that can be easily derived from AST and platelet values. APRI values of >3.2 can predict severe dengue with a sensitivity of 69.2 and a specificity of 84.2. APRI values of >3.2 are also associated with the length of hospital stay and requirement of platelet transfusion.

Severe dengue in the intensive care unit

Dengue fever is considered the most prolific vector-borne disease in the world, with its transmission rate increasing more than eight times in the last two decades. While most cases present mild to moderate symptoms, 5% of patients can develop severe disease. Although the mechanisms are yet not fully comprehended, immune-mediated activation leading to excessive cytokine expression is suggested as a cause of the two main findings in critical patients: increased vascular permeability that may shock and thrombocytopenia, and coagulopathy that can induce hemorrhage. The risk factors of severe disease include previous infection by a different serotype, specific genotypes associated with more efficient replication, certain genetic polymorphisms, and comorbidities such as diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends careful monitoring and prompt hospitalization of patients with warning signs or propensity for severe disease to reduce mortality. This review aims to update the diagnosis and management of patients with severe dengue in the intensive care unit.

Postural fall in systolic blood pressure is a useful warning sign in dengue fever

Background

Capillary leak is the hallmark of development of severe dengue. A rise in haematocrit has been a major warning sign in WHO guidelines. Postural hypotension, which could reflect the intravascular volume reduction in capillary leak has been noted as warning sign in CDC and Pan American Health Organisation guidelines. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of postural hypotension as a marker of development of severe dengue.

Methods

150 patients admitted with dengue fever were recruited in this prospective observational study. Diagnostic accuracy of conventional warning signs (abdominal pain, persistent vomiting, fluid accumulation, mucosal bleeding, lethargy, liver enlargement, increasing hematocrit with decreasing platelets) and postural hypotension was evaluated.

Results

23 (15.3%) subjects developed severe dengue. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that ascites/pleural effusion and postural fall in systolic blood pressure of >10.33% had odds ratio of 5.024(95%CI:1.11 - 22.75) and 11.369 (95% CI:2.27 - 56.87), respectively. Other parameters did not reach statistical significance. Sensitivity and specificity of ascites/pleural effusion were 82.6% and 88.2% for development of severe dengue whereas postural fall in systolic blood pressure had sensitivity and specificity of 87% and 82.7%.

Conclusions

These findings present a strong case for including postural hypotension as a warning sign in patients with dengue fever, especially in resource limited settings.

Facing the escalating burden of dengue: Challenges and perspectives

Dengue is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne infection and, due to climate change and unplanned urbanization, it is predicted that the global burden of dengue will rise further as the infection spreads to new geographical locations. Dengue-endemic countries are often unable to cope with such increases, with health care facilities becoming overwhelmed during each dengue season. Furthermore, although dengue has been predominantly a childhood illness in the past, it currently mostly affects adults in many countries, with higher incidence of severe disease and mortality rates in pregnant women and in those with comorbidities. As there is currently no specific treatment for dengue and no early biomarker to identify those who will progress to develop vascular leakage, all individuals with dengue are closely monitored in case they need fluid management. Furthermore, diagnosing patients with acute dengue is challenging due to the similarity of clinical symptoms during early illness and poor sensitivity and specificity of point-of-care diagnostic tests. Novel vector control methods, such as the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, have shown promising results by reducing vector density and dengue incidence in clinical trial settings. A new dengue vaccine, TAK-003, had an efficacy of 61.2% against virologically confirmed dengue, 84.1% efficacy against hospitalizations and a 70% efficacy against development of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) at 54 months. While vaccines and mosquito control methods are welcome, they alone are unlikely to fully reduce the burden of dengue, and a treatment for dengue is therefore essential. Several novel antiviral drugs are currently being evaluated along with drugs that inhibit host mediators, such as mast cell products. Although viral proteins such as NS1 contribute to the vascular leak observed in severe dengue, the host immune response to the viral infection also plays a significant role in progression to severe disease. There is an urgent need to discover safe and effective treatments for dengue to prevent disease progression.

Comparison of clinical and laboratory parameters of primary vs secondary dengue fever in travellers

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever (DF), caused by the dengue virus (DENV), is the most common arboviral disease in travellers worldwide. It is hypothesized that compared with primary DF, secondary DF may result in antibody-dependent enhancement of the immune response, resulting in more severe disease. We aimed to compare clinical and laboratory parameters in travellers with primary and secondary DF to determine whether secondary DF is associated with markers of severe disease.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, which included all patients diagnosed with DF at the Central Virology Laboratory of the Israeli Ministry of Health during 2008-19. Clinical, laboratory and virological data were extracted from laboratory and patient records. A diagnosis of DENV infection was based on a positive nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) test, polymerase chain reaction or serology testing for immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG). Primary and secondary infections were classified based on travel history, NS1 result and IgM/IgG ratio. Severe DF was defined according to WHO classification.

RESULTS

We identified 245 DF cases: 210 (86%) primary and 35 (14%) secondary. Whilst fever duration was significantly longer in secondary compared with primary infections (6.4 vs 5.3 days, P = 0.027), mean Aspartate aminotransferase levels were significantly higher in primary compared with secondary cases (146 vs 65 U/L, P < 0.001), and no other clinical or laboratory parameter differed significantly between the groups. Of note, only four patients had severe DF, all had primary infections and none died.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of returning travellers with DF, secondary infection, compared with primary infection, was not associated with a consistent trend towards greater severity of the clinical and laboratory markers examined in this study.

Genetic Association Studies of MICB and PLCE1 with Severity of Dengue in Indonesian and Taiwanese Populations

Dengue is an arboviral disease that has spread globally and become a major public health concern. A small proportion of patients may progress from symptomatic dengue fever (DF) to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Findings from a previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) demonstrated that variations in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I chain-related B (MICB) and the phospholipase C epsilon 1 (PLCE1) genes were related to DSS in a Vietnamese population. This study investigated associations of variations in MICB (rs3132468) and PLCE1 (rs3740360, rs3765524) with dengue severity and thrombocytopenia in both the Indonesian and Taiwanese populations. We sampled 160 patients from the Indonesian population and 273 patients from the Taiwanese population. None of the patients had DSS in the Taiwanese population. Based on age demographics, we found that dengue is more prevalent among younger individuals in the Indonesian population, whereas it has a greater impact on adults in the Taiwanese population. Our results showed the association between MICB rs3132468 and DSS. In addition, an association was identified between PLCE1 rs3740360 and DHF in secondary dengue in Indonesian patients. However, there is no association of MICB or PLCE1 variants with thrombocytopenia. This study highlights the value of genetic testing, which might be included in the clinical pathway for specific patients who can be protected from severe dengue.

Influence of previous Zika virus infection on acute dengue episode

BACKGROUND

The co-circulation of flaviviruses in tropical regions has led to the hypothesis that immunity generated by a previous dengue infection could promote severe disease outcomes in subsequent infections by heterologous serotypes. This study investigated the influence of antibodies generated by previous Zika infection on the clinical outcomes of dengue infection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We enrolled 1,043 laboratory confirmed dengue patients and investigated their prior infection to Zika or dengue. Severe forms of dengue disease were more frequent in patients with previous Zika infection, but not in those previously exposed to dengue.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings suggest that previous Zika infection may represent a risk factor for subsequent severe dengue disease, but we did not find evidence of antibody-dependent enhancement (higher viral titer or pro-inflammatory cytokine overexpression) contributing to exacerbation of the subsequent dengue infection.

Early biomarkers for prediction of severe manifestations of dengue fever: a systematic review and a meta-analysis

Early identification of dengue patients at risk of adverse outcomes is important to prevent hospital overcrowding in low- to middle- income countries during epidemics. We performed a systematic review to identify which biomarkers measured in first 96 h of fever could predict dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF, World Health Organization 1997 clinical classification) or severe dengue (SD, WHO 2009, clinical classification). PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched for prospective cohort and nested case-control studies published from 1997 to Feb 27, 2022. The protocol for the study was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42021230053). After screening 6747 publications, and analysing 37 eligible studies reporting on 5925 patients, elevated C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, interleukin-8 and decreased albumin levels were strongly associated with dengue haemorrhagic fever (by meta-analyses of multiple studies, p < 0.05), while elevated vascular cell adhesion protein 1, syndecan-1, aspartate aminotransferase and C-reactive protein levels were strongly associated with severe dengue (by meta-analyses of multiple studies, p < 0.05). Further 44 and 28 biomarkers were associated with the risk of DHF and SD respectively, but only in a single study. The meta-analyses suggest the importance of early acute inflammation with hepatic involvement in determining the subsequent course of illness in dengue.