Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Tuberculosis and HIV coinfection: Progress and challenges towards reducing incidence and mortality

HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV-TB) is associated with disproportionate mortality: approximately 24% of the 660,000 individuals with TB and HIV died, compared to 11% of those without HIV dying from TB in 2023. HIV is a key driver of ongoing high TB incidence in many countries, particularly in the World Health Organization Africa region, and TB is the leading cause of hospitalization in people with HIV (PWH) globally. Significant developments have occurred recently concerning the prevention, screening, diagnosis, and management of HIV-TB. Antiretroviral therapy and novel regimens for TB preventive therapy are now known to decrease TB incidence and improve survival. The use of Xpert Ultra (Cepheid, USA) and urine DetermineTM TB LAM Antigen (Abbott, USA) as diagnostics are associated with improved survival for HIV-TB. However, there are ongoing gaps in our knowledge: regarding the natural history of TB disease in PWH; optimal approaches to diagnosis of TB and TB drug resistance including in non-sputum samples; and post-TB disease in PWH. We discuss recent progress, together with ongoing challenges towards reducing incidence, morbidity, and mortality. We highlight ongoing research that will advance our understanding and management of HIV-TB: including vaccine research, novel treatment strategies, and expanded options for the diagnosis of TB and drug resistance in PWH.

Clustering Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific CD154+CD4+ T cells for distinguishing tuberculosis disease from infection based on single-cell RNA-seq analysis

BACKGROUND

Distinguishing between active tuberculosis disease (TBD) and latent tuberculosis infection (TBI) is crucial for TB control but remains challenging.

METHODS

Single-cell RNA sequencing was conducted on purified Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)-specific CD154+CD4+ T cells.

RESULTS

We observe a superior role of CD154 in detecting MTB infection, whereas its ability in distinguishing TBD from TBI is still limited due to patient heterogeneity. Single-cell RNA sequencing of MTB-specific CD154+CD4+ T cells identifies 10 distinct clusters, including Treg, T_act, Th1_pex, Th1_eff, Tfh, T_na, Th17_ex, Th2, NKT, and Th1_cyt. Notably, effector and apoptotic Th1 cells are predominant in CD154+CD4+ T cells of TBD. However, Tfh cells are the primary component in TBI. Most Th1_pex cells are positioned at the end of the developmental trajectory and are regulated by key genes associated with apoptosis and early exhaustion, such as GADD45B, FOS, and EZH2. Oxidative stress-induced metabolic disorder, marked by increased metabolism of nitrogen, cysteine, and glutathione, also contributes to the apoptosis of Th1_pex cells. Using seven features including NA, CM, EM, EMRA, CXCR3+ Th1, IFN-γ+ Th1, and Tfh of CD154+CD4+ T cells, both TBD and TBI can be classified into different subtypes, and a further established random forest model can accurately differentiate TBD from TBI. Additionally, the key checkpoints of exhausted MTB-specific Th1 cells are identified and blocking ADORA2A efficiently restores their function.

CONCLUSIONS

We depict the cellular compositions, transcriptional characteristics, and developmental trajectories of MTB-specific CD154+CD4+ T cells from TBI to TBD, putting forward a new direction in the diagnosis and prognosis of disease.

Evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis disease burden in Shenyang, China, 2023

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is one of the most serious infectious diseases worldwide and poses a great threat to people's health. China has a vast territory with substantial regional disparities in the PTB disease burden. However, there have been no studies conducted to evaluate the PTB disease burden in Shenyang. The aim was to elucidate the magnitude, composition, and distribution of PTB disease burden in Shenyang.

METHODS

The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) calculated based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework was used to assess the disease burden of PTB in Shenyang in 2023, and descriptive epidemiological methods were employed to elucidate the magnitude, composition, and distribution characteristics of PTB disease burden in Shenyang.

RESULTS

In 2023, 4,169 PTB cases were reported in Shenyang, including 2,901 males and 1,268 females. The incidence of PTB was 45.50/105, of which 64.29/105 for males and 27.30/105 for females. The incidence among males was higher than that among females (X2 = 688.56, p<0.001). The highest incidence was 107.00/105 in the group of the population aged 80 and above (X2 = 1171.75, p<0.001). In 2023, 189 PTB deaths were reported in Shenyang, including 156 males and 33 females. The mortality of PTB was 2.06/105 of which 3.46/105 for males and 0.71/105 for females. The mortality among males was higher than that among females (X2 = 83.69, p<0.001). The highest mortality was 16.04/105 in the group of the population aged 80 and above (X2 = 285.61, p<0.001). The PTB DALYs rate was 58.25/105, of which 91.73/105 for males and 21.22/105 for females. The DALYs rate among males was higher than that among females (X2 = 44.04, p<0.001). The highest DALYs rate was 149.86/105 in the group of the population aged 80 and above (X2 = 305.35, p<0.001). Years of life lost (YLLs) due to PTB accounted for 71.38% of total DALYs, of which 74.33% for males and 52.89% for females.

CONCLUSION

The PTB DALYs rate in Shenyang was 58.25/105, which was lower than that in China, equivalent to 80% of the national PTB disease burden rate. The disease burden showed a characteristic of increasing with age, and the PTB DALYs rate for males was higher than that for females, being equivalent to 4 times the female rate. The predominant disease burden of PTB was attributed to YLLs, accounting for as much as 71.38%, indicating that PTB primarily results in premature mortality rather than disability. Therefore, the focus should be shifted towards early intervention to reduce transmission, especially for the aged males.

Representativeness and adverse event reporting in late-phase clinical trials for rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis: a systematic review

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of trials of treatment for rifampicin-susceptible tuberculosis to evaluate the representativeness of participants compared with characteristics of the global population of people with tuberculosis, and the adequacy of adverse event reporting. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 10, 2023, for trials that had greater than or equal to 50 participants per arm and had follow-up to at least treatment completion. Studies were excluded if they compared different formulations of standard drugs (eg, fixed-dose combination tablets); aimed to primarily enrol participants with isoniazid-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis; evaluated treatment to prevent tuberculosis infection; tested dietary or vitamin supplementation; tested vaccines or other immune-based interventions; tested adherence support or system-related mechanisms; or enrolled participants with tuberculosis, but tuberculosis treatment itself was not randomised (ie, trials of the timing of antiretroviral therapy initiation). Trial protocols and trials not available in English were also excluded. The outcomes were inclusion and exclusion criteria, characteristics of participants, and adverse event reporting. This systematic review was prospectively registered (PROSPERO ID CRD42022373954). We identified 7328 articles, of which 40 were eligible for analysis. Demographic characteristics, including sex, were reported for 20 420 participants, of which 6663 (33%) were female and 13 757 (67%) were male. We found that people who were greatly affected by the global tuberculosis pandemic were frequently excluded from participation: of the 40 trials, 25 (62·5%) excluded people younger than 18 years, 12 (30·0%) excluded people aged 65 years or older, 34 (85·0%) excluded pregnant or lactating people, 12 (30·0%) excluded people with diabetes, and 11 (27·5%) excluded people with excessive alcohol use, drug use, or both. In the nine trials that reported enrolment of people with diabetes, the pooled proportion of participants with diabetes (9%) was lower than global estimates for the proportion of people with tuberculosis who have diabetes (16%). There were important gaps in adverse event ascertainment, analysis, and interpretation. Of the 40 trials, a minority reported measures of regimen acceptability: 14 (35·0%) reported study withdrawal, eight (20·0%) reported temporary and 16 (40·0%) reported permanent discontinuation of assigned therapy, and 11 (27·5%) reported adherence. Participants in trials were not representative of the global tuberculosis pandemic in demographic and clinical characteristics, restricting the generalisability of trial outcomes. Adverse event reporting could be improved through the use of patient-reported outcomes, standardised definitions of key outcomes, and uniform reporting of measures of regimen acceptability. There was no funding for this systematic review.

Epidemiological and osteoarticular involvement sites' characteristics of multiple osteoarticular tuberculosis: a scoping review

Multiple osteoarticular tuberculosis (MOT) represents an uncommon yet severe form of tuberculosis, characterized by a lack of systematic analysis and comprehension. Our objective was to delineate MOT's epidemiological characteristics and establish a scientific foundation for prevention and treatment. We conducted searches across eight databases to identify relevant articles. Pearson's chi-square test (Fisher's exact test) and Bonferroni method were employed to assess osteoarticular involvement among patients of varying age and gender (α = 0.05). The study comprised 98 articles, encompassing 151 cases from 22 countries, with China and India collectively contributing 67.55% of cases. MOT predominantly affected individuals aged 0-30 years (58.94%). Pulmonary tuberculosis was evident in 16.55% of cases, with spinal involvement prevalent (57.62%). Significant differences were noted in trunk, spine, thoracic, and lumbar vertebrae involvement, as well as type I lesions across age groups, increasing with age. Moreover, significant differences were observed in upper limb bone involvement and type II lesions across age groups, decreasing with age. Gender differences were not significant. MOT primarily manifests in China and India, predominantly among younger individuals, indicating age-related variations in osteoarticular involvement. Enhanced clinical awareness is crucial for accurate MOT diagnosis, mitigating missed diagnoses and misdiagnoses.

Cardiovascular Involvement in Tuberculosis Patients Treated in Southern Africa

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among people with HIV and a major global health challenge. Subclinical cardiovascular manifestations of TB are poorly documented in high TB and HIV burden countries.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to quantify the prevalence of cardiovascular involvement in TB patients and investigate changes after completion of anti-TB treatment.

Methods

HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients diagnosed with pulmonary TB between October 2022 and November 2023 were enrolled from 2 tertiary care hospitals in Zambia and South Africa. Standardized transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) was conducted at TB diagnosis and after 6 months of anti-TB treatment. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses assessed pericardial effusion, thickening, or calcification, with and without signs of pericardial constriction.

Results

A total of 286 TB patients (218 [76%] men, 109 [38%] people with HIV, median age 35 years) underwent TTE at TB diagnosis, of whom 105 participants had a second TTE after completion of treatment. At TB diagnosis, 134 (47%) had pericardial effusions, 86 (30%) thickening, 7 (2%) calcifications, 103 (42%) signs of constriction, and 13 (12%) had definite diagnosis of constriction. After TB treatment, pericardial effusions (47% vs 16%, P < 0.001) and pericardial thickenings (30% vs 15%, P = 0.002) became less prevalent. Pericardial calcifications (2% vs 1%, P = 0.4), signs of constrictions (42% vs 38%, P = 0.4), and definite diagnosis of constriction (12% vs 14%, P = 0.8) were similar.

Conclusions

Cardiac involvement is frequent in newly diagnosed TB patients. Early pericardial changes may be reversed with anti-TB treatment. Echocardiographic screening facilitates early detection and timely management of cardiovascular involvement in TB patients.

Tiled Amplicon Sequencing Enables Culture-free Whole-Genome Sequencing of Pathogenic Bacteria From Clinical Specimens

Pathogen sequencing is an important tool for disease surveillance and demonstrated its high value during the COVID-19 pandemic. Viral sequencing during the pandemic allowed us to track disease spread, quickly identify new variants, and guide the development of vaccines. Tiled amplicon sequencing, in which a panel of primers is used for multiplex amplification of fragments across an entire genome, was the cornerstone of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing. The speed, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of this method led to its implementation in academic and public health laboratories across the world and adaptation to a broad range of viral pathogens. However, similar methods are not available for larger bacterial genomes, for which whole-genome sequencing typically requires in vitro culture. This increases costs, error rates and turnaround times. The need to culture poses particular problems for medically important bacteria such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which are slow to grow and challenging to culture. As a proof of concept, we developed two novel whole-genome amplicon panels for M. tuberculosis and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Applying our amplicon panels to clinical samples, we show the ability to classify pathogen subgroups and to reliably identify markers of drug resistance without culturing. Development of this work in clinical settings has the potential to dramatically reduce the time of diagnosis of drug resistance for multiple drugs in parallel, enabling earlier intervention for high priority pathogens.

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV and tuberculosis and predictions by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

Objective

To assess sex, age, regional differences, and the changing trend in human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis (HIV-TB) in different regions from 1990 to 2021, and project future trends.

Methods

Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data were analyzed to assess HIV-TB incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2021, including different types of TB co-infections (drug-susceptible, multidrug-resistant, and extensively drug-resistant). Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to forecast age-standardized DALY rates through 2035.

Results

In 2021, there were approximately 1.76 million HIV-TB infections and 200,895 deaths globally. The highest burden of HIV-DS-TB and HIV-MDR-TB was found in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, while HIV-XDR-TB was most prevalent in Eastern Europe. The co-infection burden was highest among individuals aged 30-49. Key risk factors were unsafe sex, drug use, and intimate partner violence, with regional variations. The global burden of HIV-TB remains high, and age-standardized DALY rates are expected to increase in the coming years, especially in regions with low socio-demographic indices (SDI).

Conclusion

The burden of HIV-TB co-infection correlates with the socio-demographic index (SDI): countries with a low SDI have a higher burden. Therefore, clinical diagnosis and treatment in such areas are more challenging and may warrant more attention. High death rates underscore the importance of early management.

A Multi Center, Epidemiological Study of Bone Tuberculosis in Southwest China from 2011 to 2023

BACKGROUND

Despite continued efforts to manage and control Tuberculosis (TB) in China, it remains a major health concern. Bone tuberculosis (Bone-TB), a common form of extrapulmonary tuberculosis, still adds considerably to the global TB case load. Diagnosing Bone-TB is often difficult as its symptoms can be similar to other bone or joint diseases, which leads to delayed detection and treatment. Currently, comprehensive reports on the epidemiological aspects of Bone-TB in China are scarce.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed demographic and clinical data from 2,191 patients diagnosed with Bone-TB in Southwest China between January 2011 and September 2023.This study fully reveals the characteristics of Bone-TB in Southwest China.

RESULTS

The overall trend of bone tuberculosis was a slow rise. Among 2191 patients, males, farmers, aged 42-68 years, and people with HIV and diabetes are the priority groups for the prevention and treatment of Bone-TB. The majority of the infected spines (1556/2191) were located in the thoracic vertebra (759/2191) and lumbar vertebra (715/2191). Forty-nine (2.24%) patients had drug-resistant TB (DR-TB). Forty-five (2.05%) died during the treatment. The total and actual hospitalization. Costs amounted to $3,837.10 and $1,914.35 (p < 0.01). Patients with DR-TB incurred the highest costs, amounting to $4,968.37. Cervical TB, with a prevalence of 5 patients (6.10%), exhibited the highest rates of catastrophic expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2011 to 2023, the yearly occurrence of Bone-TB in southwestern China exhibited a rising pattern, marked by notable distinctions in terms of gender, age, and regional variations, indicating localized clustering characteristics.

Trends and annual percentage changes in tuberculosis mortality estimated by Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses, Taiwan, 1978-2022

Tuberculosis (TB) was a public health problem in the past and remained a threat worldwide, including in Taiwan. We aimed to estimate annual percentage changes (APC) in TB mortality and the age-period-cohort effects on TB mortality. Taiwan TB mortality data from 1978 to 2022 was used to estimate the APC through the Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort models. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) reduced from 23.46 to 3.02 and 41.70 to 1.59 per 100,000 population in males, while 8.84 to 1.09 and 14.58 to 0.45, respectively, in females. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the crude rates still significantly declined in males from 2020 to 2022 but not in females. APC in ASMR significantly decreased in males and females (-7.17% and -7.64%), while after adjusted age-period-cohort effects, the estimated APC were -8.83% and -9.77%. Age-period-cohort effects were observed, with the highest peaks in the youngest (aged 0-4) and the period 1978-1982 in both sexes and peaks in the male cohort 1898-1902 and female cohort 1903- 1907. TB mortality in Taiwan has declined in all ages, sexes, periods, and cohorts. However, the COVID-19 pandemic stopped TB mortality from decreasing.

Real-world diagnostic accuracy of lipoarabinomannan in three non-sputum biospecimens for pulmonary tuberculosis disease

BACKGROUND

Development of a non-sputum test using readily-obtainable biospecimens remains a global priority for tuberculosis (TB) control. We quantified lipoarabinomannan (LAM) concentrations, a pathogen biomarker for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, in urine, plasma and serum for real-world diagnostic accuracy of pulmonary TB among people living with and without HIV.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective diagnostic study among adults with TB symptoms in South Africa. We measured LAM concentrations in time-matched urine, plasma and serum with an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay using two capture antibodies (FIND 28 and S4-20). From the completed cohort, we randomly selected 210 participants (2 cases: 1 control) based on sensitivity estimates, and we compared diagnostic accuracy of LAM measurements against the microbiological reference standard.

FINDINGS

Urine and blood specimens from 210 of 684 adults enrolled were tested for LAM. Among 138 TB-positive adults (41% female), median urine LAM was 137 pg/mL and 52 pg/mL by FIND 28 and S4-20, respectively. Average LAM concentrations were highest in HIV-positive participants with CD4+ T cells <200 cells/mm3. Urine LAM by S4-20 achieved diagnostic sensitivity of 62% (95% CI: 53%-70%) and specificity of 99% (95% CI: 96%-100%). Plasma and serum LAM by FIND 28 showed similar sensitivity (70%, 95% CI: 62%-78%) and comparable specificities (90%, 95% CI: 82%-97%; 94%, 95% CI: 88%-99%). Diagnostic sensitivity of urine LAM by S4-20 was higher among participants without HIV (41%, 95% CI: 24%-61%) compared to HIV-positive participants with CD4 ≥200 cells/mm3 (20%, 95% CI: 8%-39%).

INTERPRETATION

Detection of LAM was achievable in non-sputum specimens for pulmonary TB, but additional analyte concentration or signal amplification may be required to achieve diagnostic accuracy targets.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tuberculosis case fatality is higher in male than female patients in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Epidemiological TB data indicate differences in infection prevalence, progression rates, and clinical disease incidence between sexes. In contrast, evidence on sex-specific differential (post) TB case fatality in Europe has not been synthesized systematically.

METHODS

We searched electronic databases and grey literature up to December 2020 for studies reporting sex-stratified TB death data for Europe. The JBI critical appraisal tools served for bias risk assessment and subgroup analyses for studying heterogeneity. Random-effects models meta-analyses enabled estimating pooled relative risks of sex-associated TB fatality. Considering associations of comorbidities and risk factors on fatality differences, we applied relative risk meta-regression.

RESULTS

Based on 17,400 records screened, 117 studies entered quantitative analyses. Seventy-five studies providing absolute participant data with moderate quality and limited sex stratification reported 33 to 235,000 TB cases and 7 to 27,108 deaths. The pooled male-to-female TB fatality risk ratio was 1.4 [1.3-1.5]. Heterogeneity was high between studies and subgroups. Study time, concurrent comorbidities (e.g., HIV, diabetes, cancers), and mean participant ages showed no effect modification. We identified higher male TB fatality in studies with higher homelessness (coefficient 3.18, 95% CI [-0.59 to 6.94], p-value 0.10) and lower migrants proportion (coefficient - 0.24, 95% CI [- 0.5 to 0.04], p-value 0.09).

CONCLUSION

We found 30-50% higher TB case fatality for males in Europe. Except for homelessness, migration, and a trend for some comorbidities, assessing effect modification could not reduce our meta-analysis' high heterogeneity. Public health authorities should take heed of this higher risk of dying in male patients' treatment services.

Tuberculous Pericarditis in an Immunocompromised Patient: A Case Report

This case report details the presentation, diagnostic process, and management of tuberculous pericarditis (TBP) in a 43-year-old male with a history of chronic severe pericarditis, right-sided heart failure, and rheumatoid arthritis. The patient exhibited symptoms of chest pain and dyspnea and showed signs of ascites and mild lower limb edema. Our patient was found to have significant pericardial thickening and effusion, as well as necrotic lymph nodes. Diagnostic tests, including a positive QuantiFERON-TB test (QIAGEN, Hilden, Germany) and imaging studies, supported the diagnosis of TBP. Management involved a combination of anti-tuberculosis therapy and eventually, a radical pericardiectomy. This report underscores the importance of timely diagnosis and treatment in improving outcomes for patients with TBP.

Further analysis of tuberculosis in eight high-burden countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data

BACKGROUNDS

Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis (TB) Report 2023 indicate that India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases. This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries.

METHODS

The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the DRC. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios (RR) of TB across diverse age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030.

RESULTS

The study found that the Philippines (average annual percentage change = 3.1%, P < 0.001) exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old. Notably, the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001, peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5 (P < 0.001) in the Philippines. Similarly, the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1 (P < 0.001) in the DRC. In the Philippines, the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001. Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory, with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines; India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0% of the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

CONCLUSIONS

Among the eight high-burden countries, the Philippines, India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO, and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations, which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.

Nationwide surveys of awareness of tuberculosis in India uncover a gender gap in tuberculosis awareness

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis remains a major challenge in India, with an estimated 2.69 million cases each year. Although men are more affected than women, gender differences and related factors affect awareness of tuberculosis and thus impact tuberculosis diagnosis and access to treatment. Understanding the gender-specific needs and complexities when diagnosing and treating tuberculosis is essential to manage cases in India.

METHODS

We undertook a comparative study using data from three National Family and Health Surveys (NFHS), specifically NFHS-3, NFHS-4 and NFHS-5. We investigated the prevalence and gender disparity in awareness about tuberculosis, and associated factors, using regression analysis.

RESULTS

Most men and women surveyed are between the ages of 15 and 19. Across the surveys, the proportion of men and women who are unaware of spreading of tuberculosis decreases from 44.9% during NFHS 3 to 29.6% during NFHS 5. However, the prevalence ratio of men to women with no knowledge about modes of transmission of Tuberculosis increases from 0.92 during NFHS 3 to 0.98 during NFHS 5. Higher odds with younger age (NFHS 5, aOR: 1.07 (1.01-1.13)) and rural residency (NFHS 5, aOR: 1.12 (1.06-1.18)), and lower odds with unmarried marital status (NFHS 5, aOR: 0.92 (0.86-0.98)) are noteworthy associations. Women and men have differences in knowledge.

CONCLUSIONS

Gender disparity associated with awareness about tuberculosis in India is observed across all three nationwide surveys. Being aged fifteen to nineteen years and residing in rural area are risk factors. Being unmarried is a protective factor for women, but not for men.

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV-negative tuberculosis, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major infectious disease with significant public health implications. Its widespread transmission, prolonged treatment duration, notable side effects, and high mortality rate pose severe challenges. This study examines the epidemiological characteristics of TB globally and across major regions, providing a scientific basis for enhancing TB prevention and control measures worldwide.

METHODS

The ecological study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. It assessed new incidence cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs), and DALY rates for drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project ASIR and ASMR.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global ASIR for all HIV-negative TB was 103.00 per 100,000 population [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 92.21, 114.91 per 100,000 population], declining by 0.40% (95% UI: - 0.43, - 0.38%) compared to 1990. The global ASMR was 13.96 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 12.61, 15.72 per 100,000 population), with a decline of 0.44% (95% UI: - 0.61, - 0.23%) since 1990. The global age-standardized DALY rate for HIV-negative TB was 580.26 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 522.37, 649.82 per 100,000 population), showing a decrease of 0.65% (95% UI: - 0.69, - 0.57 per 100,000 population) from 1990. The global ASIR of MDR-TB has not decreased since 2015, instead, it has shown a slow upward trend in recent years. The ASIR of XDR-TB has exhibited significant increase in the past 30 years. The projections indicate MDR-TB and XDR-TB are expected to see significant increases in both ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2035, highlighting the growing challenge of drug-resistant TB.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that the ASIR of MDR-TB and XDR-TB has shown an upward trend in recent years. To reduce the TB burden, it is essential to enhance health infrastructure and increase funding in low-SDI regions. Developing highly efficient, accurate, and convenient diagnostic reagents, along with more effective therapeutic drugs, and improving public health education and community engagement, are crucial for curbing TB transmission.

Epidemiological features and temporal trends of the co-infection between HIV and tuberculosis, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

The co-infection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant clinical challenge and is a major global public health issue. This study aims to elucidate the disease burden of HIV-TB co-infection in global, regions and countries, providing critical information for policy decisions to curb the HIV-TB epidemic.

METHODS

The ecological time-series study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. The data encompass the numbers of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY), as well as age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and DALY rate for HIV-infected drug-susceptible tuberculosis (HIV-DS-TB), HIV-infected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (HIV-MDR-TB), and HIV-infected extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (HIV-XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. from 1990 to 2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of rates, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), was calculated.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global ASIR for HIV-DS-TB was 11.59 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.37-13.05 per 100,000 population), 0.55 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.38-0.81 per 100,000 population), for HIV-MDR-TB, and 0.02 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.01-0.03 per 100,000 population) for HIV-XDR-TB. The EAPC for the ASIR of HIV-MDR-TB and HIV-XDR-TB from 1990 to 2021 were 4.71 (95% CI: 1.92-7.59) and 13.63 (95% CI: 9.44-18.01), respectively. The global ASMR for HIV-DS-TB was 2.22 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 1.73-2.74 per 100,000 population), 0.21 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.09-0.39 per 100,000 population) for HIV-MDR-TB, and 0.01 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.00-0.03 per 100,000 population) for HIV-XDR-TB in 2021. The EAPC for the ASMR of HIV-MDR-TB and HIV-XDR-TB from 1990 to 2021 were 4.78 (95% CI: 1.32-8.32) and 10.00 (95% CI: 6.09-14.05), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that enhancing diagnostic and treatment strategies, strengthening healthcare infrastructure, increasing access to quality medical care, and improving public health education are essential to combat HIV-TB co-infection.

Research priorities and trends in pulmonary tuberculosis in Latin America: A bibliometric analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant global public health challenge, particularly in developing countries. Over the years, scientific research has played a pivotal role in addressing this disease. In this study, we aimed to analyze and outline the trends in scientific output on TB and identify research priorities in Latin America (LA) from 1990 to 2021. Scientific production was analyzed, and the number of publications, financing sources, and journal characteristics were evaluated. Collaboration networks and keywords were visualized using mapping analysis with VOSviewer software. Research themes were prioritized by country based on co-occurrence frequency. In total, 4399 documents were identified, a significant trend was evident in the number of publications per year (R2 = 0.981), and research substantially contributed to the reduction of TB-related mortality (R2 = -0.876). Most publications were original articles (83.8 %). The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease had the highest publication and citation rates per document. International collaboration was predominantly with the United States, France, and Canada. Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico had the highest number of publications and external collaborations. In LA, interest in researching studies related to treatment and diagnosis (32.5 %) was notably high, followed by epidemiology and screening (26.9 %). Among the 20 countries in LA, research priorities varied, with the highest emphasis on HIV/AIDS (14/20), epidemiology (9/20), anti-TB agents (6/20), and mortality (5/20). TB resistance was only considered a research priority in Brazil, Peru, and Haiti. Therefore, LA experienced significant growth in its scientific output, playing a crucial role in TB control. Strategic adaptation to the region's specific challenges was observed, particularly in HIV/AIDS coinfection, epidemiological studies, and drug resistance. This progress was achieved by outstanding international scientific collaboration. This holistic approach emphasizes the importance of research in the fight against TB in LA.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis in 128 countries: a meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted for many interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis, but they have not been conducted for all interventions that are currently recommended in all countries. To support national decision makers in the effective allocation of resources, we conducted a meta-regression analysis of published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for interventions for these causes, and predicted ICERs for 14 recommended interventions for Global Fund-eligible countries.

METHODS

In the meta-regression analysis, we used data from the Tufts University Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (Boston, MA, USA) Cost-Effectiveness Registries (the CEA Registry beginning in 1976 and the Global Health CEA registry beginning in 1995) up to Jan 1, 2018. To create analysis files, we standardised and mapped the data, extracted additional data from published articles, and added variables from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Then we selected ratios for interventions with a minimum of two published articles and three published ICERs that mapped to one of five GBD causes (HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, drug-susceptible tuberculosis, or multi-drug resistant tuberculosis), and to a GBD country; reported a currency year during or after 1990; and for which the comparator intervention was defined as no intervention, standard of care, or placebo. Our meta-regression analysis used all available data on 25 eligible interventions, and quantified the association between ICERs and factors at country level and intervention level. We used a five-stage statistical model that was developed to synthesise evidence on cost-effectiveness analyses, and we adapted it for smaller sample sizes by grouping interventions by cause and type (ie, prevention, diagnostics, and treatment). Using the meta-regression parameters we predicted country-specific median ICERs, IQRs, and 95% uncertainty intervals in 2019 US$ per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) for 14 currently recommended interventions. We report ICERs in league tables with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and country-specific thresholds.

FINDINGS

The sample for the analysis was 1273 ratios from 144 articles, of which we included 612 ICERs from 106 articles in our meta-regression analysis. We predicted ICERs for antiretroviral therapy for prevention for two age groups and pregnant women, pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV for two risk groups, four malaria prevention interventions, antenatal syphilis screening, two tuberculosis prevention interventions, the Xpert tuberculosis test, and chemotherapy for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. At the country level, ranking of interventions and number of interventions with a predicted median ICER below the country-specific threshold varied greatly. For instance, median ICERs for six of 14 interventions were below the country-specific threshold in Sudan, whereas 12 of 14 were below the country-specific threshold in Peru. Antenatal syphilis screening had the lowest median ICER among all 14 interventions in 81 (63%) of 128 countries, ranging from $3 (IQR 2-4) per DALY averted in Equatorial Guinea to $3473 (2244-5222) in Ukraine. Pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV/AIDS for men who have sex with men had the highest median ICER among all interventions in 116 (91%) countries, ranging from $2326 (1077-4567) per DALY averted in Lesotho to $53 559 (23 841-108 534) in Maldives.

INTERPRETATION

Country-specific league tables highlight the interventions that offer better value per DALY averted, and can support decision making at a country level that is more tailored to available resources than GDP per capita and country-specific thresholds. Meta-regression is a promising method to synthesise cost-effectiveness analysis results and transfer them across settings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mortality of children and adolescents co-infected with tuberculosis and HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Children and adolescents with HIV infection are well known to face a heightened risk of tuberculosis. However, the exact mortality rates and temporal trends of those with HIV-tuberculosis (TB) co-infection remain unclear. We aimed to identify the overall mortality and temporal trends within this population.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were employed to search for publications reporting on the mortality rates of children and adolescents with HIV-TB co-infection from inception to March 2, 2024. The outcome is the mortality rate for children and adolescents with HIV-TB co-infection during the follow-up period. In addition, we evaluate the temporal trends of mortality.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, the pooled mortality was 16% [95% confidence interval (CI) 13-20]. Single infection of either HIV or TB exhibit lower mortality rates (6% and 4%, respectively). We observed elevated mortality risks among individuals aged less than 12 months, those with extrapulmonary TB, poor adherence to ART, and severe immunosuppression. In addition, we observed a decreasing trend in mortality before 2008 and an increasing trend after 2008, although the trends were not statistically significant ( P  = 0.08 and 0.2 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Children and adolescents with HIV-TB co-infection bear a significant burden of mortality. Timely screening, effective treatment, and a comprehensive follow-up system contribute to reducing the mortality burden in this population.

Preventing tuberculosis with community-based care in an HIV-endemic setting: a modelling analysis

INTRODUCTION

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) both prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease and deaths among people living with HIV. Differentiated care models, including community-based care, can increase the uptake of ART and TPT to prevent TB in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB, particularly among men.

METHODS

We developed a gender-stratified dynamic model of TB and HIV transmission and disease progression among 100,000 adults ages 15-59 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We drew model parameters from a community-based ART initiation and resupply trial in sub-Saharan Africa (Delivery Optimization for Antiretroviral Therapy, DO ART) and other scientific literature. We simulated the impacts of community-based ART and TPT care programmes during 2018-2027, assuming that community-based ART and TPT care were scaled up to similar levels as in the DO ART trial (i.e. ART coverage increasing from 49% to 82% among men and from 69% to 83% among women) and sustained for 10 years. We projected the number of TB cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted relative to standard, clinic-based care. We calculated programme costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the provider perspective.

RESULTS

If community-based ART care could be implemented with similar effectiveness to the DO ART trial, increased ART coverage could reduce TB incidence by 27.0% (range 21.3%-34.1%) and TB mortality by 34.6% (range 24.8%-42.2%) after 10 years. Increasing both ART and TPT uptake through community-based ART with TPT care could reduce TB incidence by 29.7% (range 23.9%-36.0%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9%-43.8%). Community-based ART with TPT care reduced gender disparities in TB mortality rates, with a projected 54 more deaths annually among men than women (range 11-103) after 10 years of community-based care versus 109 (range 41-182) in standard care. Over 10 years, the mean cost per DALY averted by community-based ART with TPT care was $846 USD (range $709-$1012).

CONCLUSIONS

By substantially increasing coverage of ART and TPT, community-based care for people living with HIV could reduce TB incidence and mortality in settings with high burdens of HIV-associated TB and reduce TB gender disparities.

Prevalence, Clinical Characteristics and Determinants of Unsuccessful Treatment Outcomes Among Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients: A 5-Year Registry-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Despite the existence of effective medications, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) remains a significant global public health concern, The evaluation and feedback of national TB control programs are crucial, requiring diligent monitoring of TB treatment outcomes and analysis of the factors influencing these outcomes. This study aims to provide valuable insights into the challenges faced by TB patients, which can inform better strategies for treatment and management in the future.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a study in King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2023. The study was a registry-based retrospective cohort study. Patients' data were sourced from the National Tuberculosis Registry database of Saudi Arabia. Treatment outcomes were determined as either success or failure, considering clinical evaluation, changes in chest X-rays, and the results of subsequent sputum examinations during follow-up. To evaluate the data, SPSS version 28.0 was used.

Results

A total of 427 PTB patients participated in the study. The results show successful treatment outcomes among 88.5% of patients. Among the patients, males exhibited a higher likelihood of treatment failure as compared to females (aOR 1.3; 95%Cl 1.2-1.5, p < 0.001). Patients with positive sputum smear (aOR 1.3; 95%Cl 1.1-1.3 p < 0.00) and the presence of cough were associated with an increased risk of treatment failure (aOR1.5; 95%Cl 1.1-1.4, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

This study shows that the percentage of unsuccessful treatment outcomes is high, ie, 11.5%, due to patients' deaths and loss to follow-up. Enhanced supervision and treatment monitoring for tuberculosis patients at high risk of treatment failure can lead to improved treatment success rates in Saudi Arabia.

The association between humidex and tuberculosis: a two-stage modelling nationwide study in China

BACKGROUND

Under a changing climate, the joint effects of temperature and relative humidity on tuberculosis (TB) are poorly understood. To address this research gap, we conducted a time-series study to explore the joint effects of temperature and relative humidity on TB incidence in China, considering potential modifiers.

METHODS

Weekly data on TB cases and meteorological factors in 22 cities across mainland China between 2011 and 2020 were collected. The proxy indicator for the combined exposure levels of temperature and relative humidity, Humidex, was calculated. First, a quasi-Poisson regression with the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was constructed to examine the city-specific associations between humidex and TB incidence. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was used to pool the city-specific effect estimates, and to explore the potential effect modifiers.

RESULTS

A total of 849,676 TB cases occurred in the 22 cities between 2011 and 2020. Overall, a conspicuous J-shaped relationship between humidex and TB incidence was discerned. Specifically, a decrease in humidex was positively correlated with an increased risk of TB incidence, with a maximum relative risk (RR) of 1.40 (95% CI: 1.11-1.76). The elevated RR of TB incidence associated with low humidex (5th humidex) appeared on week 3 and could persist until week 13, with a peak at approximately week 5 (RR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05). The effects of low humidex on TB incidence vary by Natural Growth Rate (NGR) levels.

CONCLUSION

A J-shaped exposure-response association existed between humidex and TB incidence in China. Humidex may act as a better predictor to forecast TB incidence compared to temperature and relative humidity alone, especially in regions with higher NGRs.

Mapping TB incidence across districts in Uganda to inform health program activities

BACKGROUND

Identifying spatial variation in TB burden can help national TB programs effectively allocate resources to reach and treat all people with TB. However, data limitations pose challenges for subnational TB burden estimation.

METHODS

We developed a small-area modeling approach using geo-positioned prevalence survey data, case notifications, and geospatial covariates to simultaneously estimate spatial variation in TB incidence and case notification completeness across districts in Uganda from 2016-2019. TB incidence was estimated using 1) cluster-level data from the national 2014-2015 TB prevalence survey transformed to incidence, and 2) case notifications adjusted for geospatial covariates of health system access. The case notification completeness surface was fit jointly using observed case notifications and estimated incidence.

RESULTS

Estimated pulmonary TB incidence among adults varied >10-fold across Ugandan districts in 2019. Case detection increased nationwide from 2016 to 2019, and the number of districts with case detection rates >70% quadrupled. District-level estimates of TB incidence were five times more precise than a model using TB prevalence survey data alone.

CONCLUSION

A joint spatial modeling approach provides useful insights for TB program operation, outlining areas where TB incidence estimates are highest and health programs should concentrate their efforts. This approach can be applied in many countries with high TB burden.

Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for tuberculosis, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant global health concern, being the leading cause of mortality from a single infectious agent worldwide. The investigation of TB incidence and epidemiological trends is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies and identifying ongoing challenges.

OBJECTIVES

This study presents the trend in TB incidence across 204 countries and regions over a 30-year period.

METHODS

The study utilises data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The age cohort model and gender subgroup analysis were employed to estimate the net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (age annual percentage change), longitudinal age curve (expected age ratio), and cycle and cohort effect (relative risk of cycle and birth cohort) of TB incidence from 1990 to 2019. This approach facilitates the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in TB incidence trends, potentially identifying disparities in TB prevention across different countries.

RESULTS

Over the past three decades, a general downward trend in TB incidence has been observed in most countries. However, in 15 of the 204 countries, the overall incidence rate is still on the rise (net drift ≥0.0 %) or stagnant decline (≥-0.5 %). From 1990 to 2019, the net drift of tuberculosis mortality ranged from -2.2 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): -2.33, -2.05] in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -1.7 % [95 % CI: -1.81, -1.62] in low SDI countries. In some below-average SDI countries,men in the birth cohort are at a disadvantage and at risk of deterioration, necessitating comprehensive TB prevention and treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

While the global incidence of TB has declined, adverse period and cohort effects have been identified in numerous countries, raising questions about the adequacy of TB healthcare provision across all age groups. Furthermore, this study reveals gender disparities in TB incidence.

Triple combination dry powder formulation of pretomanid, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide for treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Both latent and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) have been causing significant concern worldwide. A novel drug, pretomanid (PA-824), has shown a potent bactericidal effect against both active and latent forms of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTb) and a synergistic effect when combined with pyrazinamide and moxifloxacin. This study aimed to develop triple combination spray dried inhalable formulations composed of antitubercular drugs, pretomanid, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide (1:2:8 w/w/w), alone (PaMP) and in combination with an aerosolization enhancer, L-leucine (20 % w/w, PaMPL). The formulation PaMPL consisted of hollow, spherical, dimpled particles (<5 μm) and showed good aerosolization behaviour with a fine particle fraction of 70 %. Solid-state characterization of formulations with and without L-leucine confirmed the amorphous nature of moxifloxacin and pretomanid and the crystalline nature of pyrazinamide with polymorphic transformation after the spray drying process. Further, the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopic analysis revealed the predominant surface composition of L-leucine on PaMPL dry powder particles. The dose-response cytotoxicity results showed pyrazinamide and moxifloxacin were non-toxic in both A549 and Calu-3 cell lines up to 150 µg/mL. However, the cell viability gradually decreased to 50 % when the pretomanid concentration increased to 150 µg/mL. The in vitro efficacy studies demonstrated that the triple combination formulation had more prominent antibacterial activity with a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 1 µg/mL against the MTb H37Rv strain as compared to individual drugs. In conclusion, the triple combination of pretomanid, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide as an inhalable dry powder formulation will potentially improve treatment efficacy with fewer systemic side effects in patients suffering from latent and multidrug-resistant TB.

Global burden of MDR-TB and XDR-TB attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019: a retrospective analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019

PURPOSE

High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been identified as a risk factor for drug-resistant tuberculosis incidence and mortality. However, the epidemic characteristics of HFPG-attributable multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) remain unclear. We aimed to analyze the global spatial patterns and temporal trends of HFPG-attributable MDR-TB and XDR-TB from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project, annual deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of HFPG-attributable MDR-TB and XDR-TB were conducted from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression was employed to quantify trends over time.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the deaths and DALYs due to HFPG-attributable MDR-TB and XDR-TB globally showed an overall increasing trend, with a significant increase until 2003 to 2004, followed by a gradual decline or stability thereafter. The low sociodemographic index (SDI) region experienced the most significant increase over the past 30 years. Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and Oceania remained the highest burden. Furthermore, there was a sex and age disparity in the burden of HFPG-attributable MDR-TB and XDR-TB, with young males in the 25-34 age group experiencing higher mortality, DALYs burden and a faster increasing trend than females. Interestingly, an increasing trend followed by a stable or decreasing pattern was observed in the ASMR and ASDR of HFPG-attributable MDR-TB and XDR-TB with SDI increasing.

CONCLUSION

The burden of HFPG-attributable MDR-TB and XDR-TB rose worldwide from 1990 to 2019. These findings emphasize the importance of routine bi-directional screening and integrated management for drug-resistant TB and diabetes.

Global Burden of Tuberculosis in Adolescents and Young Adults: 1990-2019

OBJECTIVE

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major health threat in adolescents and young adults. However, its burden in this population remains unclear. This study aimed to assess TB burden and changing trends in individuals aged 10 to 24 years from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

All data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the percentage of relative changes in incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and DALYs were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs).

RESULTS

At global level, TB incidence (per 100 000 population) decreased from 144.12 in 1990 to 97.56 in 2019, with average 1.28% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36%-1.19%) of decline per year. Similar decreasing trends occurred across sex, age, sociodemographic index regions, and in most Global Burden of Disease study regions and countries. TB incidence in female adolescents decreased faster than that in male. However, there was an increasing trend in the incidence of extensively drug-resistant TB (EAPC = 11.23, 95% CI: 8.22-14.33) and multidrug-resistant TB without extensive drug resistance (EAPC = 3.28, 95% CI: 1.73-4.86). South Africa had the highest increase in TB incidence (EAPC = 3.51, 95% CI: 3.11-3.92).

CONCLUSIONS

Global TB incidence, mortality, and DALYs in adolescents and young adults decreased from 1990 to 2019. However, the incidence of drug-resistant TB increased. TB remains a threat in adolescents and young adults worldwide, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Global and regional estimates of tuberculosis burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019: emphasis on earlier glycemic control

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown subjects suffering from diabetes or persistent hyperglycemia were more likely to develop tuberculosis (TB). However, the global burden of TB attributed to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) remains unclear. This study aimed to characterize the global, regional, and national TB burden attributed to HFPG from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

With Global Burden of Disease study 2019, the numbers and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (ASDR) of TB attributed to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019 were extracted. The locally weighted regression model was applied to estimate the TB burden for different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.

RESULTS

Globally, the ASMR and ASDR attributed to HFPG were 2.70 (95% UI, 1.64-3.94) and 79.70 (95% UI, 50.26-112.51) per 100,000 population in 1990, respectively. These rates decreased to 1.46 (95% UI, 0.91-2.08) and 45.53 (95% UI, 29.06-62.29) in 2019. The TB burden attributed to HFPG remained high in low SDI and Central Sub-Saharan Africa regions, while it declined with most significantly in high SDI and East Asia regions. Additionally, the ASMR and ASDR of TB attributed to HFPG were significantly higher in the male and the elderly population.

CONCLUSIONS

The global TB burden attributable to HFPG decreased from 1990 to 2019, but remained high in low SDI regions among high-risk populations. Thus, urgent efforts are required to enhance the awareness of early glycemic control and TB treatment to alleviate the severe situation.

Changes in tuberculosis burden and its associated risk factors in Guizhou Province of China during 2006-2020: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Understanding the trends of tuberculosis (TB) burden and its risk factors at the provincial level in the context of global End TB targets is crucial to identify the progress and challenges in TB control. We aimed to estimate the burden of TB and risk factors for death from 2006 to 2020 for the first time in Guizhou Province, China.

METHODS

Data were collected from the national TB surveillance system. Four indicators of TB burden and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), including incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (ASDR), were estimated and stratified by year, age, gender and prefecture. Temporal trends of ASRs were presented by locally weighted regression, and the annual percentage change was calculated. The correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and ASRs was evaluated by Pearson correlation analysis. The associated risk factors for death in PTB patients were determined using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 557,476 pulmonary TB (PTB) cases and 11,234 deaths were reported, including 2233 (19.9%) TB specific deaths and 9001 (80.1%) deaths from other causes. The 15-year average incidence, prevalence and mortality rates were 94.6, 102.6 and 2.1 per 100,000 population, respectively. The average DALY rate was 0.60 per 1000 population. The ASIR and ASPR have shown downward trends since 2012, with the largest percentage decrease in 2020 (ASIR: -29.8%; ASPR: -30.5%). The number in TB specific deaths consistently decreased during the study period (P<0.001), while the increase in deaths from other causes drove the overall upward trend in ASMR and ASDR. Four ASRs remained high in males and 5 prefectures. GDP per capita was negatively associated with the ASIR, ASPR and ASDR (P<0.05). Among PTB patients, men, patients with no fixed job, those with a low GDP level, patients with increasing age, those previously treated, those with severe symptoms, those transferred in and those receiving directly observed treatment were more likely to suffer death.

CONCLUSION

Guizhou has made progress in reducing PTB cases and TB specific deaths over the last 15 years. Targeted interventions are needed to address these risk factors for death in PTB patients and high-risk areas.

Epidemiology and treatment outcomes of recurrent tuberculosis in Tanzania from 2018 to 2021 using the National TB dataset

BACKGROUND

Patients with recurrent TB have an increased risk of higher mortality, lower success rate, and a relatively feeble likelihood of treatment completion than those with new-onset TB. This study aimed to assess the epidemiology of recurrent TB in Tanzania; specifically, we aim to determine the prevalence of TB recurrence and factors associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes among patients with recurrent TB in Tanzania from 2018 to 2021.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we utilized Tanzania's routinely collected national TB program data. The study involved a cohort of TB patients over a fixed treatment period registered in the TB and Leprosy case-based District Health Information System (DHIS2-ETL) database from 2018 to 2021 in Tanzania. We included patients' sociodemographic and clinical factors, facility characteristics, and TB treatment outcomes. We conducted bivariate analysis and multivariable multi-level mixed effects logistic regression of factors associated with TB recurrence and TB treatment outcomes to account for the correlations at the facility level. A purposeful selection method was used; the multivariable model included apriori selected variables (Age, Sex, and HIV status) and variables with a p-value <0.2 on bivariate analysis. The adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval were recorded, and a p-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

FINDINGS

A total of 319,717 participants were included in the study; the majority were adults aged 25-49 (44.2%, n = 141,193) and above 50 years (31.6%, n = 101,039). About two-thirds were male (60.4%, n = 192,986), and more than one-fifth of participants (22.8%, n = 72,396) were HIV positive. Nearly two in every hundred TB patients had a recurrent TB episode (2.0%, n = 6,723). About 10% of patients with recurrent TB had unfavourable treatment outcomes (9.6%, n = 519). The odds of poor treatment outcomes were two-fold higher for participants receiving treatment at the central (aOR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.33-3.78) and coastal zones (aOR = 2.20; 95% CI 1.40-3.47) than the northern zone. HIV-positive participants had 62% extra odds of unfavourable treatment outcomes compared to their HIV-negative counterparts (aOR = 1.62; 95% CI 1.25-2.11). Bacteriological TB diagnosis (aOR = 1.39; 95% CI 1.02-1.90) was associated with a 39% additional risk of unfavourable treatment outcomes as compared to clinical TB diagnosis. Compared to community-based DOT, patients who received DOT at the facility had 1.39 times the odds of poor treatment outcomes (aOR = 1.39; 95%CI 1.04-1.85).

CONCLUSION

TB recurrence in Tanzania accounts for 2% of all TB cases, and it is associated with poor treatment outcomes. Unfavourable treatment outcomes were recorded in 10% of patients with recurrent TB. Poor TB treatment outcome was associated with HIV-positive status, facility-based DOT, bacteriologically confirmed TB and receiving treatment at the hospital level, differing among regions. We recommend post-treatment follow-up for patients with recurrent TB, especially those coinfected with HIV. We also propose close follow-up for patients treated at the hospital facility level and strengthening primary health facilities in TB detection and management to facilitate early treatment initiation.

Global prevalence, burden and trend in HIV and drug-susceptible tuberculosis co-infection from 1990 to 2019 and prediction to 2040

Objectives

The purpose of this study is to describe the current situation and forecast the trends of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) in different countries, across various age groups and genders.

Methods

We obtained data on the number of cases, age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized death rate from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. These data were used to describe the distribution and burden of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and DS-TB in different regions, genders, and age groups. We employed joinpoint regression analysis to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model was established to forecast the future trends of co-infection up to 2040.

Results

The prevalence and burden of co-infection varied across different age groups and genders. The territories with the higher disease burden were distributed in some Asian and African countries. In terms of temporal trends, the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of HIV and DS-TB co-infection exhibited an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, and the prediction indicated a slow downward trend from 2019 to 2040.

Conclusions

The co-infection of HIV and DS-TB posed a grave threat to public health and economic development. What's more, there existed a significant disparity between the actual state of co-infection and the desired goals for prevention and control.

Global, regional, and national mortality of tuberculosis attributable to alcohol and tobacco from 1990 to 2019: A modelling study based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is expected to become the second leading single cause of death with several risk factors, but the related disease burden is currently unknown. We aimed to analyse the pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) changes in mortality of TB attributable to alcohol and tobacco worldwide from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We obtained data of TB deaths and age-standardised death rates attributed to alcohol and cigarette in 204 countries and territories from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 public database. We performed a spatial-temporal analysis of age-standardised death rate and the average annual per cent change (AAPC), after which we analysed the effects of gender and socio-demographic index on age-standardised death rate using an age-period-cohort model. Finally, we built machine learning models to predict the TB age-standardised death rate in 2035.

Results

We found that the global age-standardised death rate of TB attributable to alcohol consumption declined from 5.35 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 3.51, 7.00) in 1990 to 2.54 (95% UI = 1.65, 3.33) in 2019, with significant declines in Andean Latin America (AAPC = -7.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -8, -7.16, P < 0.05), East Asia (AAPC = -7.32; 95% CI = -8.00, -6.62, P < 0.05), and Central Latin America (AAPC = -7.31; 95% CI = -7.63, -6.99, P < 0.05). However, there was an increase in a few regions, especially in parts of Central Asia. The age-standardised death rate for TB attributable to cigarette smoking declined more rapidly than that for TB attributable to alcohol, from 7.45 (95% UI = 6.17, 8.72) to 2.21 (95% UI = 1.78, 2.64), especially in East Asia (AAPC = -6.64; 95% CI = -7.07, -6.2, P < 0.05), North Africa and Middle East (AAPC = -6.47; 95% CI = -6.67, -6.28, P < 0.05), and Andean Latin America (AAPC = -6.31; 95% CI = -6.87, -5.75, P < 0.05). However, TB attributable to cigarette smoking increased in parts of Eastern Europe. In both TB attributable to alcohol consumption and to cigarette smoking, the age-standardised death rate was much higher in men than in women. The age-period-cohort model results showed that TB attributable to alcohol consumption was the highest in older adults aged 60-80 years, while TB attributable to cigarette smoking was the highest in adults aged 40-60 years. Machine learning models projected that by 2035, the age-standardised death rate for TB attributable to alcohol consumption would be 1.29 (per 100 000 population), while the age-standardised death rate for TB attributable to cigarette consumption would be 0.37 (per 100 000 population), which might not achieve the 2035 global target for eliminating TB.

Conclusions

Globally, the age-standardised death rate for TB attributable to alcohol consumption declined slower than that attributable to cigarette smoking. Controlling these two factors would help achieve the global goal of TB elimination, especially for the elderly who are at high risk.

Causal relationship between gut microbiota and tuberculosis: a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence from observational studies and clinical trials suggests that the gut microbiota is associated with tuberculosis (TB). However, it is unclear whether any causal relationship exists between them and whether causality is bidirectional.

METHODS

A bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed. The genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics of gut microbiota were obtained from the MiBioGen consortium, while the GWAS summary statistics of TB and its specific phenotypes [respiratory tuberculosis (RTB) and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB)] were retrieved from the UK Biobank and the FinnGen consortium. And 195 bacterial taxa from phylum to genus were analyzed. Inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger regression, maximum likelihood (ML), weighted median, and weighted mode methods were applied to the MR analysis. The robustness of causal estimation was tested using the heterogeneity test, horizontal pleiotropy test, and leave-one-out method.

RESULTS

In the UK Biobank database, we found that 11 bacterial taxa had potential causal effects on TB. Three bacterial taxa genus.Akkermansia, family.Verrucomicrobiacea, order.Verrucomicrobiales were validated in the FinnGen database. Based on the results in the FinnGen database, the present study found significant differences in the characteristics of gut microbial distribution between RTB and EPTB. Four bacterial taxa genus.LachnospiraceaeUCG010, genus.Parabacteroides, genus.RuminococcaceaeUCG011, and order.Bacillales were common traits in relation to both RTB and TB, among which order.Bacillales showed a protective effect. Additionally, family.Bacteroidacea and genus.Bacteroides were identified as common traits in relation to both EPTB and TB, positively associating with a higher risk of EPTB. In reverse MR analysis, no causal association was identified. No significant heterogeneity of instrumental variables (IVs) or horizontal pleiotropy was found.

CONCLUSION

Our study supports a one-way causal relationship between gut microbiota and TB, with gut microbiota having a causal effect on TB. The identification of characteristic gut microbiota provides scientific insights for the potential application of the gut microbiota as a preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic tool for TB.

Economic evaluation of novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis specific antigen-based skin tests for detection of TB infection: A modelling study

Evidence on the economic impact of novel skin tests for tuberculosis infection (TBST) is scarce and limited by study quality. We used estimates on the cost-effectiveness of the use of TBST compared to current tuberculosis infection (TBI) tests to assess whether TBST are affordable and feasible to implement under different country contexts. A Markov model parametrised to Brazil, South Africa and the UK was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of three TBI testing strategies: (1) Diaskintest (DST), (2) TST test, and (3) IGRA QFT test. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses over unit costs and main parameters were performed. Our modelling results show that Diaskintest saves $5.60 and gains 0.024 QALYs per patient and $8.40, and 0.01 QALYs per patient in Brazil, compared to TST and IGRA respectively. In South Africa, Diaskintest is also cost-saving at $4.39, with 0.015 QALYs per patient gained, compared to TST, and $64.41, and 0.007 QALYs per patient, compared to IGRA. In the UK, Diaskintest saves $73.33, and gaines 0.0351 QALYs per patient, compared to TST. However, Diaskintest, compared to IGRA, showed an incremental cost of $521.45 (95% CI (500.94-545.07)) per QALY, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $20.223 per QALY. Diaskintest potentially saves costs and results in greater health gains than the TST and IGRA tests in Brazil and South Africa. In the UK Diaskintest would gain health but also be more costly. Our results have potential external validity because TBST remained cost-effective despite extensive sensitivity analyses.

Relationship between patient sex and anatomical sites of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Mali

Background

Contribution of host factors in mediating susceptibility to extrapulmonary tuberculosis is not well understood.

Objective

To examine the influence of patient sex on anatomical localization of extrapulmonary tuberculosis.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study in Mali, West Africa. Hospital records of 1,304 suspected cases of extrapulmonary tuberculosis, available in TB Registry of a tertiary tuberculosis referral center from 2019 to 2021, were examined.

Results

A total of 1,012 (77.6%) were confirmed to have extrapulmonary tuberculosis with a male to female ratio of 1.59:1. Four clinical forms of EPTB predominated, namely pleural (40.4%), osteoarticular (29.8%), lymph node (12.5%), and abdominal TB (10.3%). We found sex-based differences in anatomical localization of extrapulmonary tuberculosis, with males more likely than females to have pleural TB (OR: 1.51; 95% CI [1.16 to 1.98]). Conversely, being male was associated with 43% and 41% lower odds of having lymph node and abdominal TB, respectively (OR: 0.57 and 0.59).

Conclusion

Anatomical sites of extrapulmonary tuberculosis differ by sex with pleural TB being associated with male sex while lymph node and abdominal TB are predominately associated with female sex. Future studies are warranted to understand the role of sex in mediating anatomical site preference of tuberculosis.

Diabetes mellitus affects the treatment outcomes of drug-resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Both tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are major public health problems threatening global health. TB patients with DM have a higher bacterial burden and affect the absorption and metabolism for anti-TB drugs. Drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) with DM make control TB more difficult.

METHODS

This study was completed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guideline. We searched PubMed, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Web of Science, ScienceDirect and Cochrance Library for literature published in English until July 2022. Papers were limited to those reporting the association between DM and treatment outcomes among DR-TB and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) patients. The strength of association was presented as odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the fixed-effects or random-effects models. This study was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD: 42,022,350,214.

RESULTS

A total of twenty-five studies involving 16,905 DR-TB participants were included in the meta-analysis, of which 10,124 (59.89%) participants were MDR-TB patients, and 1,952 (11.54%) had DM history. In DR-TB patients, the pooled OR was 1.56 (95% CI: 1.24-1.96) for unsuccessful outcomes, 0.64 (95% CI: 0.44-0.94) for cured treatment outcomes, 0.63 (95% CI: 0.46-0.86) for completed treatment outcomes, and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.03-1.58) for treatment failure. Among MDR-TB patients, the pooled OR was 1.57 (95% CI: 1.20-2.04) for unsuccessful treatment outcomes, 0.55 (95% CI: 0.35-0.87) for cured treatment outcomes, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.46-0.93) for treatment completed treatment outcomes and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.08-1.75) for treatment failure.

CONCLUSION

DM is a risk factor for adverse outcomes of DR-TB or MDR-TB patients. Controlling hyperglycemia may contribute to the favorite prognosis of TB. Our findings support the importance for diagnosing DM in DR-TB /MDR-TB, and it is needed to control glucose and therapeutic monitoring during the treatment of DR-TB /MDR-TB patients.

Tuberculosis and its associated risk factors among HIV-positive pregnant women in northwest Ethiopia: A retrospective follow-up study

Background

People living with the human immunodeficiency virus have a higher risk of developing active tuberculosis disease. Human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women are at a much higher risk of getting active tuberculosis infection, partly due to immune modulation. However, very little is known about the epidemiology of tuberculosis among pregnant women infected with the virus, particularly in resource-limited settings where the burdens of these infections are substantial. Hence, this study aimed to estimate tuberculosis incidence and identify its risk factors among human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women in northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

An institutional-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among pregnant women who were enrolled in option B+ prevention of mother to child transmission service between June 2013 and April 2021 in Pawe district. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Weibull regression model were used to estimate survival probability and identify risk factors of tuberculosis, respectively. The best model between the Cox and parametric models was chosen using the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria.

Result

Out of 289 human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women included in the final analysis, 29 (10.03 %) developed active tuberculosis. The overall incidence of tuberculosis was 17.4 per 1000 person-months of observation (95 % CI: 12.1, 25.1). Lack of isoniazid preventive therapy (AHR: 6.68, 95 % CI: 2.67, 16.7), new enrollment to care (AHR: 2.62, 95 % CI: 1.14, 6.03), under-nutrition (AHR: 5.09, 95 % CI: 2.02, 12.83), low CD4 count (AHR: 2.61, 95 % CI: 1.01, 6.78), and suboptimal antiretroviral therapy adherence (AHR: 3.17, 95 % CI: 1.46, 6.86) were predictors of tuberculosis among HIV-positive pregnant women.

Conclusion

This study found a high incidence of tuberculosis among human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women. Thus, strengthening the provision of tuberculosis preventive therapy, reinforcing adherence support, and controlling under-nutrition should be considered to decrease the risk of tuberculosis.

The associations of ambient fine particles with tuberculosis incidence and the modification effects of ambient temperature: A nationwide time-series study in China

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major air pollutant that poses significant risks to human health. However, little is known about the association of PM2.5 with tuberculosis (TB) incidence, and whether temperature modifies the association.This study aimed to explore the association between ambient PM2.5 exposure and TB incidence in China and the modification effects of temperature. Weekly meteorological data, PM2.5 concentrations, and TB incidence numbers were collected for 22 cities across Mainland China, from 2011 to 2020. A quasi-Poisson regression with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess city-specific PM2.5-TB associations. A multivariate meta-regression model was then used to pool the city-specific effect estimates, at the national and regional levels. A J-shaped PM2.5-TB relationship was observed at the national level for China. Compared to those with minimum PM2.5-TB risk, people who were exposed to the highest PM2.5 concentrations had a 26 % (RR:1.26, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.52) higher risk for TB incidence. J-shaped PM2.5-TB associations were also observed for most sub-groups, however, no significant modifying effects were found. While a trend was observed between low temperatures and increased exposure-response associations, these results were not significant. Overall, approximately 20 % of TB cases in the 22 study cities, over the period 2011-2020, could be attributed to PM2.5 exposure. Strengthening the monitoring and emission control of PM2.5 could aid the prevention and control of TB incidence.

Epidemiological features and temporal trends of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden from 1990 to 2019: a retrospective analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to analyse the burden and temporal trends of tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality globally, as well as the association between mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of TB data from 1990 to 2019 was conducted using the Global Burden of Disease Study database.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, there was a declining trend in the global incidence and mortality of TB. High SDI regions experienced a higher declining rate than in low SDI regions during the same period. Nearly half of the new patients occurred in South Asia. In addition, there is a sex-age imbalance in the overall burden of TB, with young males having higher incidence and mortality than females. In terms of the three subtypes of TB, drug-sensitive (DS)-TB accounted for more than 90% of the incidents and deaths and experienced a decline over the past 30 years. However, drug-resistant TB (multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB and extensively drug-resistant (XDR)-TB) showed an overall increasing trend in age-standardised incidence rates and age-standardised mortality rates, with an inflection point after the year 2000. At the regional level, South Asia and Eastern Europe remained a high burden of drug-resistant TB incidence and mortality. Interestingly, a negative correlation was found between the MIR and SDI for TB, including DS-TB, MDR-TB and XDR-TB. Notably, central sub-Saharan Africa had the highest MIR, which indicated a higher-than-expected burden given its level of sociodemographic development.

CONCLUSION

This study provides comprehensive insights into the global burden and temporal trends of TB incidence and mortality, as well as the relationship between MIR and SDI. These findings contribute to our understanding of TB epidemiology and can inform public health strategies for prevention and management.

Gender-related factors affecting access to TB services and treatment outcomes in the Philippines

SETTING

The Philippines is one of the countries with the highest TB burdens. While TB affects men and women differently, studies also show that gender affects people's experience of and access to healthcare. Men and women have usually assigned roles and responsibilities that affect their decisions and health-seeking behaviour.

OBJECTIVE

The gender analysis aimed to examine the relationship between gender and access to TB services and treatment outcomes according to five domains: cultural norms and beliefs; patterns of power and decision-making; gender roles and responsibilities; access to resources; laws and policies.

DESIGN

The team conducted 19 in-depth interviews and five focus group discussions with project staff, TB coordinators from healthcare facilities, representatives from the private and informal business sector and representatives from the Philippine Department of Health from August to November 2019.

RESULTS

Study findings indicated that men faced greater limitations than women in terms of accessing TB resources and services, which highlight the differences between genders in relation to health-seeking behaviours and ability to access healthcare.

CONCLUSION

This demonstrates the importance of integrating a gender lens into the service provision set up, from screening to treating and monitoring, to ensure equitable health benefits for men, women, transgender and gender-diverse persons.

COVID-19 pandemic and other factors associated with unfavorable tuberculosis treatment outcomes-Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2018-2021

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively influenced the availability of tuberculosis (TB) services, such as detection, diagnosis and treatment, around the world, including Kazakhstan. We set out to estimate the COVID-19 pandemic influence on TB treatment outcomes by comparing outcomes among people starting treatment before the pandemic (2018-2019) and during the pandemic (2020-2021) and to determine risk factors associated with unfavorable outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all people newly diagnosed with drug-sensitive pulmonary or extrapulmonary TB at least 18 years old who initiated treatment from 2018 to 2021 in Almaty. We abstracted data from the national electronic TB register. Unfavorable treatment outcomes were ineffective treatment, death, loss to follow-up, results not evaluated, and transferred. We used multivariable Poisson regression to calculate adjusted relative risk (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results

Among 1548 people newly diagnosed with TB during the study period, average age was 43 years (range 18-93) and 52% were male. The number of people initiating treatment was higher before than the pandemic (935 vs. 613, respectively). There was significantly different proportions before compared to during the pandemic for people diagnosed through routine screening (39% vs. 31%, p < 0.001), 60 years and older (16% vs. 22%, p = 0.005), and with diabetes (5% vs. 8%, p = 0.017). There was no difference in the proportion of HIV (8% in both periods). Unfavorable outcomes increased from 11 to 20% during the pandemic (aRR = 1.83; 95% CI: 1.44-2.31). Case fatality rose from 6 to 9% (p = 0.038). Risk factors for unfavorable TB treatment outcomes among all participants were being male (aRR = 1.44, 95%CI = 1.12-1.85), having HIV (aRR = 2.72, 95%CI = 1.99-3.72), having alcohol use disorder (aRR = 2.58, 95%CI = 1.83-3.62) and experiencing homelessness (aRR = 2.94, 95%CI = 1.80-4.80). Protective factors were being 18-39 years old (aRR = 0.33, 95%CI = 0.24-0.44) and 40-59 years old (aRR = 0.56, 95%CI = 0.41-0.75) compared to 60 years old and up.

Conclusion

COVID-19 pandemic was associated with unfavorable treatment outcomes for people newly diagnosed with drug-sensitive TB in Almaty, Kazakhstan. People with fewer comorbidities were at increased risk. Results point to the need to maintain continuity of care for persons on TB treatment, especially those at higher risk for poor outcomes during periods of healthcare service disruption.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in Indonesia: a nationwide longitudinal analysis of programme data

BACKGROUND

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in high-burden countries has not been adequately assessed. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national tuberculosis programme in Indonesia, in association with indicators of human development and health-system capacity across all 514 districts in 34 provinces.

METHODS

We did a nationwide longitudinal analysis to compare tuberculosis case notification, treatment coverage, and mortality rates in Indonesia before (2016-19) and during (2020-21) the COVID-19 pandemic. The following outcomes were assessed: the district-level quarterly reported tuberculosis case notification rate (number of all reported tuberculosis cases per 100 000 population), treatment coverage (proportion of tuberculosis patients who started treatment), and all-cause mortality rate in patients with tuberculosis (number of reported deaths per 100 000 population). District-level data on COVID-19 incidence and deaths, health-system capacity, and human development and sociodemographics were also analysed. Multilevel linear spline regression was done to assess quarterly time trends for the three outcomes.

FINDINGS

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the tuberculosis case notification rate declined by 26% (case notification rate ratio 0·74, 95% CI 0·72-0·77) and treatment coverage declined by 11% (treatment coverage ratio 0·89, 95% CI 0·88-0·90), but there was no significant increase in all-cause mortality (all-cause mortality rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·91-1·04) compared with the pre-pandemic period. In the second year of the pandemic, we observed a partial recovery of the case notification rate from Q1 to Q4 of 2021, a persistent decrease in treatment coverage, and a decrease in the all-cause mortality rate from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021. The multivariable analysis showed that the reduction in the tuberculosis case notification rate was associated with a higher COVID-19 incidence rate (adjusted odds ratio 3·1, 95% CI 1·1-8·6, for the highest compared with the lowest group) and fewer GeneXpert machines for tuberculosis diagnosis (3·1, 1·0-9·4, for the lowest compared with the highest group) per 100 000 population. The reduction in tuberculosis treatment coverage was associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (adjusted odds ratio 11·7, 95% CI 1·5-93·4, for the highest compared with the lowest group), fewer primary health centres (10·6, 4·1-28·0, for the lowest compared with the middle-high group), and a very low number of doctors (0·3, 0·1-0·9, for the low-middle compared with the lowest group) per 100 000 population. No factors were shown to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality.

INTERPRETATION

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely and unevenly affected the national tuberculosis programme across Indonesia, with the greatest impacts observed in districts with the lowest health-system capacity. These disruptions could lead to an escalation in tuberculosis transmission in the coming years, warranting the need for intensified efforts to control tuberculosis and strengthen local health systems.

FUNDING

Wellcome Africa Asia Programme Vietnam.

TRANSLATION

For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global-, Regional-, and National-Level Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Diagnoses, 2020-2021

Evaluating cross-country variability on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) may provide urgent inputs to control programs as countries recover from the pandemic. We compared expected TB notifications, modeled using trends in annual TB notifications from 2013-2019, with observed TB notifications to compute the observed to expected (OE) ratios for 170 countries. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to identify the covariates, out of 27 pandemic- and tuberculosis-relevant variables, that had the strongest explanatory power for log OE ratios. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 1.55 million (95% CI: 1.26-1.85, 21.0% [17.5-24.6%]) decrease in TB diagnoses in 2020 and a 1.28 million (0.90-1.76, 16.6% [12.1-21.2%]) decrease in 2021 at a global level. India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China contributed the most to the global declines for both years, while sub-Saharan Africa achieved pre-pandemic levels by 2021 (OE ratio = 1.02 [0.99-1.05]). Age-stratified analyses revealed that the ≥ 65-year-old age group experienced greater relative declines in TB diagnoses compared with the under 65-year-old age group in 2020 (RR = 0.88 [0.81-0.96]) and 2021 (RR = 0.88 [0.79-0.98]) globally. Covariates found to be associated with all-age OE ratios in 2020 were age-standardized smoking prevalence in 2019 (β = 0.973 [0.957-990]), school closures (β = 0.988 [0.977-0.998]), stay-at-home orders (β = 0.993 [0.985-1.00]), SARS-CoV-2 infection rate (β = 0.991 [0.987-0.996]), and proportion of population ≥65 years (β = 0.971 [0.944-0.999]). Further research is needed to clarify the extent to which the observed declines in TB diagnoses were attributable to disruptions in health services, decreases in TB transmission, and COVID-19 mortality among TB patients.

[Sex in infectious diseases-How sex differences influence the immune response to infections]

The humoral and cellular immune responses to antigen stimulation, vaccinations and infections differ between women and men. Genetic, epigenetic and hormonal factors contribute to the sex-specific immunity. The expression of genes on the X‑chromosome and the effect of sex hormones substantially influence the immune defence against infections. Females show stronger cellular and humoral immune responses to infections than males, but the enhanced immune response often leads to aberrant inflammatory reactions and autoimmune diseases. Men are principally more prone to bacterial, viral and fungal infections and more often show severe disease courses. In contrast, a more reactive female immune system results in significantly more adverse reactions to vaccinations. In order to be able to better identify the multiple sex-specific that have an influence on the immune system, sex-specific differences should be investigated in a differentiated way. The better understanding of the sex-specific differences in the immune response will have a long-term influence on the prevention, diagnostics and treatment of infectious diseases, and will ultimately contribute to improving healthcare of both women and men.

The path to tuberculosis elimination: a renewed vision

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination and pre-elimination, with thresholds of 1 and 10 incident cases per million population, respectively, were considered achievable for low TB incidence countries in the 1990s, when they were conceived. However, it has since become clear that, even in low TB incidence settings with effective programmes and sufficient resources, achieving pre-elimination in the next decade will require a dramatic acceleration of efforts. In this review, we describe the history of the TB elimination concept and existing country experiences, as well as the interventions available to accelerate the progress towards this threshold. We then propose a framework for near-term progress towards the more aspirational goal of TB pre-elimination. This framework consists of five stages (high incidence, moderate incidence, low incidence, nearing pre-elimination and pre-elimination) that are benchmarked to specific levels of TB incidence in each country. Using this framework, countries can set 5-year targets of achieving certain reductions in TB incidence and/or reaching the next stage, through the use of strategies tailored to both local epidemiology and available organisation and infrastructure. TB elimination remains as an aspirational goal in all stages, but certain activities can be prioritised in the short term to make more rapid progress, ensure local-level buy-in and increase accountability. As TB pre-elimination is approached, certain ethical and social concerns are likely to rise in importance; these concerns are also discussed. Our aim in setting this framework is to guide clinicians, public health experts and decision makers in taking actionable next steps in the trajectory towards TB pre-elimination and elimination.