The global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and implications for current and future orthopoxvirus susceptibility: a modelling study

Factors potentially contributing to the decline of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands, 2022 and 2023

BackgroundIn 2022 and 2023, a global outbreak of mpox affected mostly gay, bisexual and other men having sex with men (GBMSM). Outbreak control in the Netherlands included isolation, quarantine, post-exposure prophylaxis vaccination and primary preventive vaccination (PPV).AimWe describe the course of the outbreak, the vaccination programme, vaccine effectiveness (VE) of full vaccination against symptomatic disease, and trends in behaviour to generate hypotheses about factors that influenced the outbreak's decline.MethodsIn this observational study, we collected data from public health services on notified cases, number of PPV invitations and PPV doses administered. We calculated PPV uptake and coverage. Trends in behavioural data of GBMSM visiting sexual health centres were analysed for all consultations in 2022. We estimated VE using the screening method.ResultsUntil 31 December 2023, 1,294 mpox cases were reported. The outbreak peaked in early July 2022 and then declined sharply. PPV started on 25 July 2022; in total 29,851 doses were administered, 45.8% received at least one dose, 35.4% were fully vaccinated. The estimated VE was 68.2% (95% CI 4.3-89.5%). We did not observe an evident decrease in high-risk behaviour.DiscussionIt is unlikely that PPV was a driver of the outbreak's decline, as incidence started to decline well before the start of the PPV programme. The possible impact of behavioural change could not be demonstrated with the available indicators, however, the data had limitations, hampering interpretation. We hypothesise that infection-induced immunity in high-risk groups was an important factor explaining the decline.

Tracing the journey of poxviruses: insights from history

The historical significance of the poxviruses is profound, largely due to the enduring impact left by smallpox virus across many centuries. The elimination of smallpox is a remarkable accomplishment in the history of science and medicine, with centuries of devoted efforts resulting in the development and widespread administration of smallpox vaccines. This review provides insight into the pivotal historical events involving medically significant poxviruses. Understanding the remarkable saga of combatting smallpox is crucial, serving as a guidepost for potential future encounters with poxvirus infections. There is a continual need for vigilant observation of poxvirus evolution and spillover from animals to humans, considering the expansive range of susceptible hosts. The recent occurrence of monkeypox cases in non-endemic countries stands as a stark reminder of the ease with which infections can be disseminated through international travel and trade. This backdrop encourages introspection about our journey and the current status of poxvirus research.

Unexpectedly higher levels of anti-orthopoxvirus neutralizing antibodies are observed among gay men than general adult population

BACKGROUND

The confirmed cases in the current outbreak of Monkeypox are predominantly identified in the networks of men who have sex with men (MSM). The preexisting antibodies may profoundly impact the transmission of monkeypox virus (MPXV), however the current-day prevalence of antibodies against MPXV among gay men is not well characterized.

METHODS

A cohort of gay men (n = 326) and a cohort of the general adult population (n = 295) were enrolled in this study. Binding antibodies responses against MPXV/vaccinia and neutralizing antibody responses against vaccinia virus (Tiantan strain) were measured. The antibody responses of these two cohorts were then compared, as well as the responses of individuals born before and in/after 1981 (when the smallpox vaccination ceased in China). Finally, the correlation between the anti-MPXV antibody responses and the anti-vaccinia antibody responses, and the associations between preexisting anti-orthopoxvirus antibody responses and the diagnosed sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the MSM cohort were analyzed separately.

RESULTS

Our data showed that binding antibodies against MPXV H3, A29, A35, E8, B6, M1 proteins and vaccinia whole-virus lysate could be detected in individuals born both before and in/after 1981, of which the prevalence of anti-vaccinia binding antibodies was significantly higher among individuals born before 1981 in the general population cohort. Moreover, we unexpectedly found that the positive rates of binding antibody responses against MPXV H3, A29, A35, E8 and M1 proteins were significantly lower among individuals of the MSM cohort born in/after 1981, but the positive rates of anti-MPXV B6 and anti-vaccinia neutralizing antibody responses were significantly higher among these individuals compared to those of age-matched participants in the general population cohort. Additionally, we demonstrated that the positive and negative rates of anti-MPXV antibody responses were associated with the anti-vaccinia antibody responses among individuals born before 1981 in the general population cohort, but no significant association was observed among individuals born in/after 1981 in both cohorts. The positive rates of both the binding and the neutralizing antibody responses were comparable between individuals with and without diagnosed STIs in the MSM cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-MPXV and anti-vaccinia antibodies could be readily detected in an MSM cohort and a general population cohort. And a higher level of anti-vaccinia neutralizing antibody responses was observed among individuals who did not get vaccinated against smallpox in the MSM cohort compared to age-matched individuals in the general population cohort.

Human Monkeypox-A Global Public Health Emergency

Monkeypox, a viral zoonosis caused by an Orthopoxvirus, is clinically characterized by fever, headache, lymphadenopathy, myalgia, rash and burdened by some complications that can be severe and life threatening. Monkeypox, endemic in some central and west African countries, in tropical areas near equator, rose to the headlines following its recent outbreak in non-endemic countries of Europe and the USA. Thus, the World Health Organization, worried about the growing dimension of the problem, declared monkeypox a global public health emergency. Now, after months of careful observation, the western scientific research is drawing conclusion that African endemic countries represent a reserve pool able to feed, through travelers and sexual networks, the outbreak in non-endemic countries in which high-risk communities such as gay and bisexual men are the most affected. Prevention through vaccination and early diagnosis are the core to breaking the chain of diffusion of this epidemic. Particular attention should be paid to avoid the spread from endemic countries, also implementing the economic investments in their public health system. Information campaigns and assistance to high-risk classes in non-endemic countries are important priorities, however, assuming that specific treatments for this disease are still tentative.