Validation of a host blood transcriptomic biomarker for pulmonary tuberculosis in people living with HIV: a prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study

Biomarkers in diagnosing and therapeutic monitoring of tuberculosis: a review

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to pose a significant health challenge worldwide, emphasizing the importance of prompt diagnosis and efficient monitoring of treatment outcomes for effective disease control. Biomarkers have become increasingly important in the realm of TB diagnoses and treatment. The objective of this comprehensive review is to examine the present state of biomarkers employed in the diagnosis of TB, monitoring the response to treatment, and predicting treatment outcomes. In this study, we undertake a comprehensive examination of the diverse biomarkers utilized in TB diagnoses, spanning molecular, immunological, and other novel methodologies. Furthermore, we examine the potential of biomarkers in the context of therapeutic monitoring, assessment of treatment effectiveness, and anticipation of drug resistance. Additionally, this paper presents future prospects regarding the utilization of biomarkers in the therapy of tuberculosis.

Risk score prediction for bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in northwest Ethiopia: prognostic model development

OBJECTIVE

This study was aimed at developing a risk score prediction model for bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis (TB) among adults with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institutional-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 569 adults with HIV on ART. We used demographic and clinical prognostic factors to develop a risk prediction model. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination and calibration using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and calibration plot. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical utility.

RESULTS

Opportunistic infection, functional status, anemia, isoniazid preventive therapy, and WHO clinical stages were used to develop risk prediction. The AUROC curve of the original model was 87.53% [95% confidence interval (CI): 83.88-91.25] and the calibration plot ( P -value = 0.51). After internal validation, the AUROC curve of 86.61% (95% CI: 82.92-90.29%) was comparable with the original model, with an optimism coefficient of 0.0096 and good calibration ( P -value = 0.10). Our model revealed excellent sensitivity (92.65%) and negative predictive value (NPV) (98.60%) with very good specificity (70.06%) and accuracy (72.76%). After validation, accuracy (74.85%) and specificity (76.27%) were improved, but sensitivity (86.76%) and NPV (97.66%) were relatively reduced. The risk prediction model had a net benefit up to 7.5 threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

This prognostic model had very good performance. Moreover, it had very good sensitivity and excellent NPV. The model could help clinicians use risk estimation and stratification for early diagnosis and treatment to improve patient outcomes and quality of life.

Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV before antiretroviral therapy initiation: a diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed tuberculosis remains a major threat for people living with HIV. Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for tuberculosis diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) tuberculosis screening.

METHODS

We enrolled consecutive adults (age ≥18 years) referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA signatures (one single gene biomarker [BATF2] and six multigene biomarkers) for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity and specificity at prespecified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed by calculating net benefit in decision curve analysis. We compared performance with C-reactive protein (CRP; threshold ≥5 mg/L), WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS), and the WHO target product profile for tuberculosis triage tests.

FINDINGS

A total of 707 people living with HIV (407 [58%] female and 300 [42%] male) were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells per mm3 (IQR 184-486). Of 676 participants with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed tuberculosis. The seven RNA signatures were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0·42-0·93) and discriminated tuberculosis culture positivity with similar AUROCs (0·73-0·80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0·78, 95% CI 0·72-0·83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among participants with negative W4SS (AUROCs 0·56-0·65) compared with positive (AUROCs 0·75-0·84). The RNA biomarker with the highest AUROC point estimate was a four-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0·80, 95% CI 0·75-0·86), with sensitivity 83% (95% CI 74-90) and specificity 59% (55-63) at the Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5 mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 80% (70-87), specificity of 70% (66-74), and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone.

INTERPRETATION

RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing for people living with HIV before ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches might be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support tuberculosis screening before ART initiation.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2, National Institutes of Health National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, The Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Royal College of Physicians London.

Research tests for the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection

INTRODUCTION

Despite huge efforts, tuberculosis (TB) is still a major public health threat worldwide, it is estimated that a quarter of the global population is infected by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). For controlling TB and reducing Mtb transmission it is fundamental to diagnose TB infection (TBI) as well as the progressors from TBI to disease to identify those requiring preventive therapy. At present, there is no gold standard test for TBI diagnosis although several new methodologies have been attempted.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides an update on the most recent approaches to develop reliable tests to diagnose TBI and progressors from infection to disease. Experimental tests are based on either the direct identification of Mtb (i.e., Mtb DNA upon host cells isolation; Mtb proteins or peptides) or host response (i.e., levels and quality of specific anti-Mtb antibodies; host blood transcriptome signatures).

EXPERT OPINION

The experimental tests described are very interesting. However, further investigation and randomized clinical trials are needed to improve the sensitivity and specificity of these new research-based tests. More reliable proofs-of-concept and simplification of technical procedures are necessary to develop new diagnostic tools for identifying TBI patients and those that will progress from infection to TB disease.

Assessing the Diagnostic Performance of New Commercial Interferon-γ Release Assays for Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

We compared 6 new interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs; hereafter index tests: QFT-Plus, QFT-Plus CLIA, QIAreach, Wantai TB-IGRA, Standard E TB-Feron, and T-SPOT.TB/T-Cell Select) with World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed tests for tuberculosis infection (hereafter reference tests).

METHODS

Data sources (1 January 2007-18 August 2021) were Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and manufacturers' data. Cross-sectional and cohort studies comparing the diagnostic performance of index and reference tests were selected. The primary outcomes of interest were the pooled differences in sensitivity and specificity between index and reference tests. The certainty of evidence (CoE) was summarized using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven studies were included (44 evaluated the QFT-Plus, 4 QFT-Plus CLIA, 3 QIAreach, 26 TB-IGRA, 10 TB-Feron [1 assessing the QFT-Plus], and 1 T-SPOT.TB/T-Cell Select). Compared to the QFT-GIT, QFT Plus's sensitivity was 0.1 percentage points lower (95% confidence interval [CI], -2.8 to 2.6; CoE: moderate), and its specificity 0.9 percentage points lower (95% CI, -1.0 to -.9; CoE: moderate). Compared to QFT-GIT, TB-IGRA's sensitivity was 3.0 percentage points higher (95% CI, -.2 to 6.2; CoE: very low), and its specificity 2.6 percentage points lower (95% CI, -4.2 to -1.0; CoE: low). Agreement between the QFT-Plus CLIA and QIAreach with QFT-Plus was excellent (pooled κ statistics of 0.86 [95% CI, .78 to .94; CoE: low]; and 0.96 [95% CI, .92 to 1.00; CoE: low], respectively). The pooled κ statistic comparing the TB-Feron and the QFT-Plus or QFT-GIT was 0.85 (95% CI, .79 to .92; CoE: low).

CONCLUSIONS

The QFT-Plus and the TB-IGRA have very similar sensitivity and specificity as WHO-approved IGRAs.

Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV prior to anti-retroviral therapy initiation: A diagnostic accuracy study

Background

Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat for people living with HIV (PLHIV). Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for TB diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) TB screening.

Methods

We enrolled consecutive adults referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene-panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA biomarkers for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity/specificity at pre-specified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis. We compared performance to CRP (threshold ≥5mg/L), World Health Organisation (WHO) four-symptom screen (W4SS) and the WHO target product profile for TB triage tests.

Results

A total of 707 PLHIV were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells/mm3. Of 676 with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed TB. The seven RNA biomarkers were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0.42-0.93) and discriminated TB culture-positivity with similar AUROCs (0.73-0.80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0.78; 95% CI 0.72-0.83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among W4SS-negative (AUROCs 0.56-0.65) compared to W4SS-positive participants (AUROCs 0.75-0.84). The RNA biomarker with highest AUROC point estimate was a 4-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0.80; 95% CI 0.75-0.86), with sensitivity 0.83 (0.74-0.90) and specificity 0.59 (0.55-0.63) at Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 0.80 (0.70-0.87), specificity of 0.70 (0.66-0.74) and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone.

Interpretation

RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing for PLHIV prior to ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP, and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches may be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support TB screening pre-ART initiation.

Funding

South African MRC, EDCTP2, NIH/NIAID, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Royal College of Physicians London.

Systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host blood transcriptomic signatures of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV

Background HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) has high mortality; however, current triage and prognostic tools offer poor sensitivity and specificity, respectively. We conducted a systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host-blood transcriptomic signatures of TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Methods We systematically searched online databases for studies published in English between 1990-2020. Eligible studies included PLHIV of any age in test or validation cohorts, and used microbiological or composite reference standards for TB diagnosis. Inclusion was not restricted by setting or participant age. Study selection, quality appraisal using the QUADAS-2 tool, and data extraction were conducted independently by two reviewers. Thereafter, narrative synthesis of included studies, and comparison of signatures performance, was performed. Results We screened 1,580 records and included 12 studies evaluating 31 host-blood transcriptomic signatures in 10 test or validation cohorts of PLHIV that differentiated individuals with TB from those with HIV alone, latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, or other diseases (OD). Two (2/10; 20%) cohorts were prospective (29 TB cases; 51 OD) and 8 (80%) case-control (353 TB cases; 606 controls) design. All cohorts (10/10) were recruited in Sub-Saharan Africa and 9/10 (90%) had a high risk of bias. Ten signatures (10/31; 32%) met minimum WHO Target Product Profile (TPP) criteria for TB triage tests. Only one study (1/12; 8%) evaluated prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature for progression to TB in PLHIV, which did not meet the minimum WHO prognostic TPP. Conclusions Generalisability of reported findings is limited by few studies enrolling PLHIV, limited geographical diversity, and predominantly case-control design, which also introduces spectrum bias. New prospective cohort studies are needed that include PLHIV and are conducted in diverse settings. Further research exploring the effect of HIV clinical, virological, and immunological factors on diagnostic performance is necessary for development and implementation of TB transcriptomic signatures in PLHIV.

Host blood-based biosignatures for subclinical TB and incipient TB: A prospective study of adult TB household contacts in Southern India

A large proportion of the global tuberculosis (TB) burden is asymptomatic and not detectable by symptom-based screening, driving the TB epidemic through continued M. tuberculosis transmission. Currently, no validated tools exist to diagnose incipient and subclinical TB. Nested within a large prospective study in household contacts of pulmonary TB cases in Southern India, we assessed 35 incipient TB and 12 subclinical TB cases, along with corresponding household active TB cases (n=11), and household controls (n=39) using high throughput methods for transcriptional and protein profiling. We split the data into training and test sets and applied a support vector machine classifier followed by a Lasso regression model to identify signatures. The Lasso regression model identified an 11-gene signature (ABLIM2, C20orf197, CTC-543D15.3, CTD-2503O16.3, HLADRB3, METRNL, RAB11B-AS1, RP4-614C10.2, RNA5SP345, RSU1P1, and UACA) that distinguished subclinical TB from incipient TB with a very good discriminatory power by AUCs in both training and test sets. Further, we identified an 8-protein signature comprising b-FGF, IFNγ, IL1RA, IL7, IL12p70, IL13, PDGF-BB, and VEGF that differentiated subclinical TB from incipient TB with good and moderate discriminatory power by AUCs in the training and test sets, respectively. The identified 11-gene signature discriminated well between the distinct stages of the TB disease spectrum, with very good discriminatory power, suggesting it could be useful for predicting TB progression in household contacts. However, the high discriminatory power could partly be due to over-fitting, and validation in other studies is warranted to confirm the potential of the immune biosignatures for identifying subclinical TB.

Culture independent markers of nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) lung infection and disease in the cystic fibrosis airway

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are opportunistic pathogens that affect a relatively small but significant portion of the people with cystic fibrosis (CF), and may cause increased morbidity and mortality in this population. Cultures from the airway are the only test currently in clinical use for detecting NTM. Culture techniques used in clinical laboratories are insensitive and poorly suited for population screening or to follow progression of disease or treatment response. The lack of sensitive and quantitative markers of NTM in the airway impedes patient care and clinical trial design, and has limited our understanding of patterns of acquisition, latency and pathogenesis of disease. Culture-independent markers of NTM infection have the potential to overcome many of the limitations of standard NTM cultures, especially the very slow growth, inability to quantitate bacterial burden, and low sensitivity due to required decontamination procedures. A range of markers have been identified in sputum, saliva, breath, blood, urine, as well as radiographic studies. Proposed markers to detect presence of NTM or transition to NTM disease include bacterial cell wall products and DNA, as well as markers of host immune response such as immunoglobulins and the gene expression of circulating leukocytes. In all cases the sensitivity of culture-independent markers is greater than standard cultures; however, most do not discriminate between various NTM species. Thus, each marker may be best suited for a specific clinical application, or combined with other markers and traditional cultures to improve diagnosis and monitoring of treatment response.

Systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host blood transcriptomic signatures of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV

Background HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) has high mortality; however, current triage and prognostic tools offer poor sensitivity and specificity, respectively. We conducted a systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic host-blood transcriptomic signatures of TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Methods We systematically searched online databases for studies published in English between 1990-2020. Eligible studies included PLHIV of any age in test or validation cohorts, and used microbiological or composite reference standards for TB diagnosis. Inclusion was not restricted by setting or participant age. Study selection, quality appraisal using the QUADAS-2 tool, and data extraction were conducted independently by two reviewers. Thereafter, narrative synthesis of included studies, and comparison of signatures performance, was performed. Results We screened 1,580 records and included 12 studies evaluating 31 host-blood transcriptomic signatures in 10 test or validation cohorts of PLHIV that differentiated individuals with TB from those with HIV alone, latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, or other diseases (OD). Two (2/10; 20%) cohorts were prospective (29 TB cases; 51 OD) and 8 (80%) case-control (353 TB cases; 606 controls) design. All cohorts (10/10) were recruited in Sub-Saharan Africa and 9/10 (90%) had a high risk of bias. Ten signatures (10/31; 32%) met minimum WHO Target Product Profile (TPP) criteria for TB triage tests. Only one study (1/12; 8%) evaluated prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature for progression to TB in PLHIV, which did not meet the minimum WHO prognostic TPP. Conclusions Generalisability of reported findings is limited by few studies enrolling PLHIV, limited geographical diversity, and predominantly case-control design, which also introduces spectrum bias. New prospective cohort studies are needed that include PLHIV and are conducted in diverse settings. Further research exploring the effect of HIV clinical, virological, and immunological factors on diagnostic performance is necessary for development and implementation of TB transcriptomic signatures in PLHIV.

The role of IGRA in the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection, differentiating from active tuberculosis, and decision making for initiating treatment or preventive therapy of tuberculosis infection

OBJECTIVES

The World Health Organization estimated that a quarter of the global population is infected by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). A better control of tuberculosis (TB) is based on the ability to detect Mtb infection, identifying the progressors to TB disease, undergoing to preventive therapy and implementing strategies to register the infections and treatment completion.

DESIGN

we reviewed the literature regarding the tests available for TB infection diagnosis, the preventive therapies options and the cascade of care for controlling TB at a public health level.

RESULTS

current tests for TB infection diagnosis as IFN-γ release assays or tuberculin skin tests are based on the detection of an immune response to Mtb in the absence of clinical disease. The main limit is their low accuracy to detect progressors to disease. New preventive treatments are available with short duration that are associated with better adherence. Options to register TB infections are presented.

CONCLUSIONS

Tests to diagnose TB infection are available but they lack accuracy to identify the progressors from infection to TB disease. Shorter preventive TB therapy are available but need to be implemented worldwide. A TB infection registry is crucial for improving the cascade of care leading to a better TB control.

Diagnostic biomarkers for active tuberculosis: progress and challenges

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality from a single infectious agent, despite being preventable and curable. Early and accurate diagnosis of active TB is critical to both enhance patient care, improve patient outcomes, and break Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission cycles. In 2020 an estimated 9.9 million people fell ill from Mtb, but only a little over half (5.8 million) received an active TB diagnosis and treatment. The World Health Organization has proposed target product profiles for biomarker- or biosignature-based diagnostics using point-of-care tests from easily accessible specimens such as urine or blood. Here we review and summarize progress made in the development of pathogen- and host-based biomarkers for active TB diagnosis. We describe several unique patient populations that have posed challenges to development of a universal diagnostic TB biomarker, such as people living with HIV, extrapulmonary TB, and children. We also review additional limitations to widespread validation and utilization of published biomarkers. We conclude with proposed solutions to enhance TB diagnostic biomarker validation and uptake.

Preventive Treatment for Household Contacts of Drug-Susceptible Tuberculosis Patients

People who live in the household of someone with infectious pulmonary tuberculosis are at a high risk of tuberculosis infection and subsequent progression to tuberculosis disease. These individuals are prioritized for contact investigation and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT). The treatment of TB infection is critical to prevent the progression of infection to disease and is prioritized in household contacts. Despite the availability of TPT, uptake in household contacts is poor. Multiple barriers prevent the optimal implementation of these policies. This manuscript lays out potential next steps for closing the policy-to-implementation gap in household contacts of all ages.

Isoniazid preventive therapy and tuberculosis transcriptional signatures in people with HIV

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) or nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) sputum culture positivity and tuberculosis (TB) transcriptional signatures in people with HIV.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

We enrolled adults living with HIV who were IPT-naive or had completed IPT more than 6 months prior at HIV care clinics in western Kenya. We calculated TB signatures using gene expression data from qRT-PCR. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association between prior receipt of IPT or NTM sputum culture positivity with a transcriptional TB risk score, RISK6 (range 0-1). In secondary analyses, we explored the association between IPT or NTM positivity and four other TB transcriptional signatures.

RESULTS

Among 381 participants, 99.7% were receiving antiretroviral therapy and 86.6% had received IPT (completed median of 1.1 years prior). RISK6 scores were lower (mean difference 0.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.06-0.15; P  < 0.001) among participants who received IPT than those who did not. In a model that adjusted for age, sex, duration of ART, and plasma HIV RNA, the RISK6 score was 52.8% lower in those with a history of IPT ( P  < 0.001). No significant association between year of IPT receipt and RISK6 scores was detected. There was no association between NTM sputum culture positivity and RISK6 scores.

CONCLUSION

In people with HIV, IPT was associated with significantly lower RISK6 scores compared with persons who did not receive IPT. These data support investigations of its performance as a TB preventive therapy response biomarker.

Are mRNA based transcriptomic signatures ready for diagnosing tuberculosis in the clinic? - A review of evidence and the technological landscape

Funding

Systematic review of host genomic biomarkers of invasive bacterial disease: Distinguishing bacterial from non-bacterial causes of acute febrile illness

Background

Infectious diseases play a significant role in the global burden of disease. The gold standard for the diagnosis of bacterial infection, bacterial culture, can lead to diagnostic delays and inappropriate antibiotic use. The advent of high- throughput technologies has led to the discovery of host-based genomic biomarkers of infection, capable of differentiating bacterial from other causes of infection, but few have achieved validation for use in a clinical setting.

Methods

A systematic review was performed. PubMed/Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase and Scopus databases were searched for relevant studies from inception up to 30/03/2022 with forward and backward citation searching of key references. Studies assessing the diagnostic performance of human host genomic biomarkers of bacterial infection were included. Study selection and assessment of quality were conducted by two independent reviewers. A meta-analysis was undertaken using a diagnostic random-effects model. The review was registered with PROSPERO (ID: CRD42021208462).

Findings

Seventy-two studies evaluating the performance of 116 biomarkers in 16,216 patients were included. Forty-six studies examined TB-specific biomarker performance and twenty-four studies assessed biomarker performance in a paediatric population. The results of pooled sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio of genomic biomarkers of bacterial infection were 0.80 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.82), 0.86 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.88), 0.18 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.21), 5.5 (95% CI 4.9 to 6.3), 30.1 (95% CI 24 to 37), respectively. Significant between-study heterogeneity (I² 77%) was present.

Interpretation

Host derived genomic biomarkers show significant potential for clinical use as diagnostic tests of bacterial infection however, further validation and attention to test platform is warranted before clinical implementation can be achieved.

Funding

No funding received.

End-point definition and trial design to advance tuberculosis vaccine development

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious cause of death worldwide and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has negatively impacted the global TB burden of disease indicators. If the targets of TB mortality and incidence reduction set by the international community are to be met, new more effective adult and adolescent TB vaccines are urgently needed. There are several new vaccine candidates at different stages of clinical development. Given the limited funding for vaccine development, it is crucial that trial designs are as efficient as possible. Prevention of infection (POI) approaches offer an attractive opportunity to accelerate new candidate vaccines to advance into large and expensive prevention of disease (POD) efficacy trials. However, POI approaches are limited by imperfect current tools to measure Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection end-points. POD trials need to carefully consider the type and number of microbiological tests that define TB disease and, if efficacy against subclinical (asymptomatic) TB disease is to be tested, POD trials need to explore how best to define and measure this form of TB. Prevention of recurrence trials are an alternative approach to generate proof of concept for efficacy, but optimal timing of vaccination relative to treatment must still be explored. Novel and efficient approaches to efficacy trial design, in addition to an increasing number of candidates entering phase 2-3 trials, would accelerate the long-standing quest for a new TB vaccine.

Evaluation of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk in combination with an interferon gamma release assay: A diagnostic test accuracy study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (TB) risk (RISK11) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold-plus (QFTPlus) as combination biomarkers of TB risk.

METHODS

Healthy South Africans who were HIV-negative aged 18-60 years with baseline RISK11 and QFTPlus results were evaluated in a prospective cohort study conducted between Sept 20, 2016 and Dec 20, 2019. Prevalence and incidence-rate ratios were used to evaluate risk of TB. Positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios were used to compare individual tests versus Both-Positive (RISK11+/QFTPlus+) and Either-Positive (RISK11+ or QFTPlus+) combinations.

FINDINGS

Among 2912 participants, prevalent TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 13·3-fold (95% CI 4·2-42·7) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·4-fold (95% CI 1·2-4·8) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 4·5-fold (95% CI 2·5-8·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants. Risk of incident TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 8·3-fold (95% CI 2·5-27·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·0-6·6) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 2·1-fold (95% CI 1·2-3·4) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants, respectively. Compared to QFTPlus, the Both-Positive test combination increased diagnostic LR+ from 1·3 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 4·7 (95% CI 3·2-7·0), and prognostic LR+ from 1·4 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 2·8 (95% CI 1·5-5·1), but did not improve upon RISK11 alone. Compared with RISK11, the Either-Positive test combination decreased diagnostic LR- from 0·7 (95% CI 0·6-0·9) to 0·3 (95% CI 0·2-0·6), and prognostic LR- from 0·9 (95% CI 0·8-1·0) to 0·3 (0·1-0·7), but did not improve upon QFTPlus alone.

INTERPRETATION

Combining two tests such as RISK11 and QFTPlus, with discordant individual performance characteristics does not improve overall discriminatory performance, relative to the individual tests.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Prospective multicentre head-to-head validation of host blood transcriptomic biomarkers for pulmonary tuberculosis by real-time PCR

Background

Sensitive point-of-care screening tests are urgently needed to identify individuals at highest risk of tuberculosis. We prospectively tested performance of host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis signatures.

Methods

Adults without suspicion of tuberculosis were recruited from five endemic South African communities. Eight parsimonious host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis signatures were measured by microfluidic RT-qPCR at enrolment. Upper respiratory swab specimens were tested with a multiplex bacterial-viral RT-qPCR panel in a subset of participants. Diagnostic and prognostic performance for microbiologically confirmed prevalent and incident pulmonary tuberculosis was tested in all participants at baseline and during active surveillance through 15 months follow-up, respectively.

Results

Among 20,207 HIV-uninfected and 963 HIV-infected adults screened; 2923 and 861 were enroled. There were 61 HIV-uninfected (weighted prevalence 1.1%) and 10 HIV-infected (prevalence 1.2%) tuberculosis cases at baseline. Parsimonious signature diagnostic performance was superior among symptomatic (AUCs 0.85-0.98) as compared to asymptomatic (AUCs 0.61-0.78) HIV-uninfected participants. Thereafter, 24 HIV-uninfected and 9 HIV-infected participants progressed to incident tuberculosis (1.1 and 1.0 per 100 person-years, respectively). Among HIV-uninfected individuals, prognostic performance for incident tuberculosis occurring within 6-12 months was higher relative to 15 months. 1000 HIV-uninfected participants were tested for respiratory microorganisms and 413 HIV-infected for HIV plasma viral load; 7/8 signature scores were higher (p < 0.05) in participants with viral respiratory infections or detectable HIV viraemia than those without.

Conclusions

Several parsimonious tuberculosis transcriptomic signatures met triage test targets among symptomatic participants, and incipient test targets within 6 months. However, the signatures were upregulated with viral infection and offered poor specificity for diagnosing sub-clinical tuberculosis.

The effect of host factors on discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk

Background

We aimed to understand host factors that affect discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk (RISK11).

Methods

HIV-negative adults aged 18–60 years were evaluated in a prospective study of RISK11 and surveilled for tuberculosis through 15 months. Generalised linear models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) regression were used to estimate effect of host factors on RISK11 score (%marginal effect) and on discriminatory performance for tuberculosis disease (area under the curve, AUC), respectively.

Findings

Among 2923 participants including 74 prevalent and 56 incident tuberculosis cases, percentage marginal effects on RISK11 score were increased among those with prevalent tuberculosis (+18·90%, 95%CI 12·66−25·13), night sweats (+14·65%, 95%CI 5·39−23·91), incident tuberculosis (+7·29%, 95%CI 1·46−13·11), flu-like symptoms (+5·13%, 95%CI 1·58−8·68), and smoking history (+2·41%, 95%CI 0·89−3·93) than those without; and reduced in males (−6·68%, 95%CI −8·31−5·04) and with every unit increase in BMI (−0·13%, −95%CI −0·25−0·01). Adjustment for host factors affecting controls did not change RISK11 discriminatory performance. Cough was associated with 72·55% higher RISK11 score in prevalent tuberculosis cases. Stratification by cough improved diagnostic performance from AUC = 0·74 (95%CI 0·67−0·82) overall, to 0·97 (95%CI 0·90−1·00, p < 0·001) in cough-positive participants. Combining host factors with RISK11 improved prognostic performance, compared to RISK11 alone, (AUC = 0·76, 95%CI 0·69−0·83 versus 0·56, 95%CI 0·46−0·68, p < 0·001) over a 15-month predictive horizon.

Interpretation

Several host factors affected RISK11 score, but only adjustment for cough affected diagnostic performance. Combining host factors with RISK11 should be considered to improve prognostic performance.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Clinical predictors of pulmonary tuberculosis among South African adults with HIV

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) clinical prediction rules rely on presence of symptoms, however many undiagnosed cases in the community are asymptomatic. This study aimed to explore the utility of clinical factors in predicting TB among people with HIV not seeking care.

Methods

Baseline data were analysed from an observational cohort of ambulant adults with HIV in South Africa. Participants were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) sensitisation (interferon-γ release assay, IGRA) and microbiologically-confirmed prevalent pulmonary TB disease at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident TB through 15 months. Multivariable LASSO regression with post-selection inference was used to test associations with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease.

Findings

Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 861 participants were enrolled; Among 851 participants included in the analysis, 94·5% were asymptomatic and 45·9% sensitised to Mtb. TB prevalence was 2·0% at baseline and incidence 2·3/100 person-years through 15 months follow-up. Study site was associated with baseline Mtb sensitisation (p < 0·001), prevalent (p < 0·001), and incident TB disease (p = 0·037). Independent of site, higher CD4 counts (per 50 cells/mm3, aOR 1·48, 95%CI 1·12-1·77, p = 0·006) were associated with increased IGRA positivity, and participants without TB disease (aOR 0·80, 95%CI 0·69-0·94, p = 0·006) had reduced IGRA positivity; no variables were independently associated with prevalent TB. Mixed ancestry (aHR 1·49, 95%CI 1·30->1000, p = 0·005) and antiretroviral initiation (aHR 1·48, 95%CI 1·01-929·93, p = 0·023) were independently associated with incident TB. Models incorporating clinical features alone performed poorly in diagnosing prevalent (AUC 0·65, 95%CI 0·44-0·85) or predicting progression to incident (0·67, 0·46-0·88) TB.

Interpretation

CD4 count and antiretroviral initiation, proxies for immune status and HIV stage, were associated with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease. Inadequate performance of clinical prediction models may reflect predominantly subclinical disease diagnosed in this setting and unmeasured local site factors affecting transmission and progression.

Funding

The CORTIS-HR study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town.

The definition of tuberculosis infection based on the spectrum of tuberculosis disease

Latent tuberculosis infection was the term traditionally used to indicate tuberculosis (TB) infection. This term was used to define “a state of persistent immune response to stimulation by Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens through tests such as the tuberculin skin test (TST) or an interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) without clinically active TB”. Recent evidence indicates that the spectrum from TB infection to TB disease is much more complex, including a “continuum” of situations didactically reported as uninfected individual, TB infection, incipient TB, subclinical TB without signs/symptoms, subclinical TB with unrecognised signs/symptoms, and TB disease with signs/symptoms. Recent evidence suggests that subclinical TB is responsible for important M. tuberculosis transmission. This review describes the different stages described above and their relationships. It also summarises the new developments in prevention, diagnosis and treatment of TB infection as well as their public health and policy implications.

The evolution from TB infection to disease is now described as a “continuum process”. Understanding of this is important to appreciate what is new on prevention, diagnosis and treatment of TB infection.https://bit.ly/3jauRKA

A systematic review of potential screening biomarkers for active TB disease

INTRODUCTION

The standard TB Four Symptom Screen does not meet the World Health Organization (WHO) ideal screening criteria for having greater than 90% sensitivity to identify active TB disease, regardless of HIV status. To identify novel screening biomarkers for active TB, we performed a systematic review of any cohort or case-control study reporting associations between screening biomarkers and active TB disease.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase for articles published before October 10, 2021. We included studies from high or medium tuberculosis burden countries. We excluded articles focusing on C-reactive protein and lipoarabinomannan. For all included biomarkers, we calculated sensitivity, specificity and 95% confidence intervals, and assessed study quality using a tool adapted from the QUADAS-2 risk of bias.

RESULTS

From 8,062 abstracts screened, we included 79 articles. The articles described 302 unique biomarkers, including host antibodies, host proteins, TB antigens, microRNAs, whole blood gene PCRs, and combinations of biomarkers. Of these, 23 biomarkers had sensitivity greater than 90% and specificity greater than 70%, meeting WHO criteria for an ideal screening test. Among the eleven biomarkers described in people living with HIV, only one had a sensitivity greater than 90% and specificity greater than 70% for active TB.

CONCLUSION

Further evaluation of biomarkers of active TB should be pursued to accelerate identification of TB disease.

A 10-gene biosignature of tuberculosis treatment monitoring and treatment outcome prediction

The clinical utility of blood transcriptomic biosignatures for the treatment monitoring and outcome prediction of tuberculosis (TB) remains limited. In this study, we aimed to discover and validate biomarkers for pulmonary TB treatment monitoring and outcome prediction based on kinetic responses of gene expression during treatment. In particular, differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified by time-series comparison. Subsequently, DEGs with the monotonic expression alterations during the treatment were selected. Ten consistently down-regulated genes (CD274, KIF1B, IL15, TLR1, TLR5, FCGR1A, GBP1, NOD2, GBP2, EGF) exhibited significant potential in treatment monitoring, demonstrated via biological and technical validation. Additionally, the biosignature showed potential in predicting the cured versus relapsed patients. Furthermore, the biosignature could be utilized for TB diagnosis, latent tuberculosis infection/active TB differential diagnosis, and risk of progression to active TB. Benchmarking analysis of the 10-gene biosignature with other biosignatures showed equivalent performance in tested data sets. In conclusion, we established a 10-gene transcriptomic biosignature that represents the kinetic responses of TB treatment. Subsequent studies are warranted to validate, refine and translate the biosignature into a precise assay to assist clinical decisions in a broad spectrum of TB management.

The impact of blood transcriptomic biomarker targeted tuberculosis preventive therapy in people living with HIV: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapy is recommended for all people living with HIV (PLHIV). Despite the elevated risk of TB amongst PLHIV, most of those eligible for preventive therapy would never develop TB. Tests which can identify individuals at greatest risk of disease would allow more efficient targeting of preventive therapy.

METHODS

We used mathematical modelling to estimate the potential impact of using a blood transcriptomic biomarker (RISK11) to target preventive therapy amongst PLHIV. We compared universal treatment to RISK11 targeted treatment and explored the effect of repeat screening of the population with RISK11.

RESULTS

Annual RISK11 screening, with preventive therapy provided to those testing positive, could avert 26% (95% CI 13-34) more cases over 10 years compared to one round of universal treatment. For the cost per case averted to be lower than universal treatment, the maximum cost of the RISK11 test was approximately 10% of the cost of preventive therapy. The benefit of RISK11 screening may be greatest amongst PLHIV on ART (compared to ART naïve individuals) due to the increased specificity of the test in this group.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarker targeted preventive therapy may be more effective than universal treatment amongst PLHIV in high incidence settings but would require repeat screening.

Longitudinal Dynamics of a Blood Transcriptomic Signature of Tuberculosis

Rationale

Performance of blood transcriptomic tuberculosis (TB) signatures in longitudinal studies and effects of TB-preventive therapy and coinfection with HIV or respiratory organisms on transcriptomic signatures has not been systematically studied.

Objectives

We evaluated longitudinal kinetics of an 11-gene blood transcriptomic TB signature, RISK11, and effects of TB-preventive therapy (TPT) and respiratory organisms on RISK11 signature score, in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals.

Methods

RISK11 was measured in a longitudinal study of RISK11-guided TPT in HIV-uninfected adults, a cross-sectional respiratory organisms cohort, or a longitudinal study in people living with HIV (PLHIV). HIV-uninfected RISK11⁺ participants were randomized to TPT or no TPT; RISK11⁻ participants received no TPT. PLHIV received standard-of-care antiretroviral therapy and TPT. In the cross-sectional respiratory organisms cohort, viruses and bacteria in nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were quantified by real-time quantitative PCR.

Measurements and Main Results

RISK11⁺ status was transient in most of the 128 HIV-negative participants with longitudinal samples; more than 70% of RISK11⁺ participants reverted to RISK11⁻ by 3 months, irrespective of TPT. By comparison, reversion from a RISK11⁺ state was less common in 645 PLHIV (42.1%). Non-HIV viral and nontuberculous bacterial organisms were detected in 7.2% and 38.9% of the 1,000 respiratory organisms cohort participants, respectively, and among those investigated for TB, 3.8% had prevalent disease. Median RISK11 scores (%) were higher in participants with viral organisms alone (46.7%), viral and bacterial organisms (42.8%), or prevalent TB (85.7%) than those with bacterial organisms other than TB (13.4%) or no organisms (14.2%). RISK11 could not discriminate between prevalent TB and viral organisms.

Conclusions

Positive RISK11 signature status is often transient, possibly due to intercurrent viral infection, highlighting potentially important challenges for implementation of these biomarkers as new tools for TB control.