Incorporating oral PrEP into standard prevention services for South African women: a nested interrupted time-series study

Health impact, budget impact, and price threshold for cost-effectiveness of lenacapavir for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in eastern and southern Africa: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Injectable lenacapavir administered every 6 months is a promising product for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We aimed to estimate the health and budget impacts and threshold price at which lenacapavir could be cost-effective in eastern and southern Africa.

METHODS

We adapted an agent-based network model, EMOD-HIV, to simulate lenacapavir scale-up in Zimbabwe, South Africa, and western Kenya from 2026 to 2035. Uptake assumptions were informed by a literature review of PrEP product preferences. In the main analysis, we varied lenacapavir coverage by subgroup: female sex workers (40% coverage); male clients of female sex workers (40%); adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years with more than one sexual partner (32%); women aged 25 years and older with more than one sexual partner (36%); and males with more than one sexual partner (32%). We also assessed a higher coverage scenario (64-76% across subgroups) and scenarios of expanding lenacapavir use, varying from concentrated among those at highest HIV risk to broader coverage including those at medium HIV risk. We estimated the maximum per-dose lenacapavir price that achieved cost-effectiveness (

FINDINGS

In the main analysis, lenacapavir was projected to achieve from 1·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-1·8) to 4·0% (3·4-5·1) population coverage across settings and to avert from 12·3% (5·4-19·5) to 18·0% (11·0-22·9) of infections over 10 years. The maximum price per dose was highest in South Africa ($106·28 [95% UI 95·72-115·87]), followed by Zimbabwe ($21·15 [17·70-24·89]), and lowest in western Kenya ($16·58 [15·44-17·70]). The 5-year budget impact was US$507·25 million (95% UI 436·14-585·42) in South Africa, $16·80 million (13·95-22·64) in Zimbabwe, and $4·09 million (3·86-4·30) in western Kenya. In the higher coverage scenario, lenacapavir distribution was projected to reach from 3·2% (95% UI 2·9-3·6) to 8·1% (6·8-10·5) population coverage and to avert from 21·2% (95% UI 14·7-18·5) to 33·3% (28·5-36·9) of HIV infections across settings over 10 years. Price thresholds were lower than in the main analysis: $88·34 (95% UI 83·02-94·19) in South Africa, $17·71 (15·61-20·05) in Zimbabwe, and $14·78 (14·33-15·30) in western Kenya. The 5-year budget impact was higher than the main analysis: $835·29 million (95% UI 736·98-962·98) in South Africa, $29·50 million (24·62-39·52) in Zimbabwe, and $7·45 million (7·11-7·85) in western Kenya. Expanding lenacapavir coverage resulted in higher HIV infections averted but lower price thresholds than scenarios of concentrated use among those with highest HIV risk.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that lenacapavir could avert substantial HIV incidence and that price thresholds and budget impacts vary by setting and coverage. These results could inform policy deliberations regarding lenacapavir pricing and resource planning.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings

• Humans
• HIV Infections/prevention & control
• HIV Infections/drug therapy
• HIV Infections/epidemiology
• HIV Infections/economics
• Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/economics
• Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/methods
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Male
• Female
• Adolescent
• Adult
• Young Adult
• Anti-HIV Agents/economics
• Anti-HIV Agents/administration & dosage
• Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use
• Budgets
• Africa, Southern/epidemiology
• Africa, Eastern/epidemiology
• Sex Workers

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Affiliation(s)

Linxuan Wu Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
David Kaftan Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
Rachel Wittenauer CHOICE Institute, University of Washington School of Pharmacy, Seattle, WA, USA
Cory Arrouzet Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Nishali Patel Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Arden L Saravis Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Brian Pfau Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Edinah Mudimu Department of Decision Sciences, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa
Anna Bershteyn Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
Monisha Sharma Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

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A Qualitative Exploration of PrEP Interests, Barriers, and Interventions Among Black and Latina Cisgender Women in the U.S

Black and Latina cisgender women (BLCW) are disproportionally affected by HIV, particularly in the southern U.S. In Austin, Texas, Black women contract HIV 18.4 times more and Latinas 2.6 times more compared to White women. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a medication that prevents contracting HIV; however, PrEP adoption among women is low. The current qualitative study aimed to explore PrEP awareness, interest, preferred PrEP administration methods, barriers to PrEP adoption, and future programs to increase PrEP adoption and adherence among BLCW. A total of 18 BLCW at high risk for HIV were enrolled. Participants completed 3 semi-structured interviews across 3 months. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, coded, and analyzed using thematic content analysis. Results demonstrated that BLCW had low PrEP awareness, high initial PrEP interest, and were interested in a long-acting injectable form of PrEP. Barriers to PrEP adoption included concerns regarding side effects, concerns about adherence to the currently available daily pill, and difficulty with insurance. Participants proposed different ideas for interventions, including support groups, education, community-level programs, and structural interventions. Future studies should focus on increasing PrEP awareness and HIV risk, consider alternative forms of PrEP, educate providers and medical staff on PrEP, and consider tailored interventions to reduce HIV risk among BLCW.

Potential cost-effectiveness of community availability of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for HIV prevention and treatment in east, central, southern, and west Africa: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) offers protection from HIV after condomless sex, but is not widely available in a timely manner in east, central, southern, and west Africa. To inform the potential pilot implementation of such an approach, we modelled the effect and cost-effectiveness of making PEP consisting of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir (TLD) freely and locally available in communities without prescription, with the aim of enabling PEP use within 24 h of condomless sex. Free community availability of TLD (referred to as community TLD) might also result in some use of TLD as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and as antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV.

METHODS

Using an existing individual-based model (HIV Synthesis), we explicitly modelled the potential positive and negative effects of community TLD. Through the sampling of parameter values we created 1000 setting-scenarios, reflecting the uncertainty in assumptions and a range of settings similar to those seen in east, central, southern, and west Africa (with a median HIV prevalence of 14·8% in women and 8·1% in men). For each setting scenario, we considered the effects of community TLD. TLD PEP was assumed to have at least 90% efficacy in preventing HIV infection after condomless sex with a person living with HIV.

FINDINGS

The modelled effects of community TLD availability based on an assumed high uptake of TLD resulted in a mean reduction in incidence of 31% (90% range over setting scenarios, 6% increase to 57% decrease) over 20 years, with an HIV incidence reduction over 50 years in 91% of the 1000 setting scenarios, deaths averted in 55% of scenarios, reduction in costs in 92% of scenarios, and disability-adjusted life-years averted in 64% of scenarios with community TLD. Community TLD was cost-effective in 90% of setting scenarios and cost-saving (with disability-adjusted life-years averted) in 58% of scenarios. When only examining setting scenarios in which there was lower uptake of community TLD, community TLD is cost-effective in 92% of setting scenarios.

INTERPRETATION

The introduction of community TLD, enabling greater PEP access, is a promising approach to consider further in pilot implementation projects.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the HIV Modelling Consortium.

A Scoping Review of Oral Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for Cisgender and Transgender Adolescent Girls and Young Women: What Works and Where Do We Go from Here?

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are disproportionately affected by HIV, and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can reduce HIV acquisition. The purpose of this scoping review was to synthesize results from interventions along the PrEP continuum for AGYW to inform research and programs. We searched electronic databases for studies published between January 2012-July 2021 and conducted secondary reference searching. Studies were included if they assessed interventions to increase PrEP interest, uptake, or continuation among AGYW. Results were synthesized narratively. Of 2168 citations identified, 50 studies were eligible for inclusion, and 20 contained AGYW-specific data. Among cisgender and transgender AGYW, studies overall demonstrated a positive impact on PrEP interest and uptake but generally attained suboptimal continuation rates. Results demonstrate feasibility of deploying PrEP across diverse settings-particularly when interventions are layered, tailored to AGYW, and include differentiated delivery-but also highlight knowledge gaps and the need for more holistic metrics of success.

Uptake and Persistence on HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Among Female Sex Workers and Men Having Sex with Men in Kigali, Rwanda: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study Design

Background

Although HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is known for its effectiveness in preventing HIV transmission; there is a global rise in HIV infection rates, particularly prominent in sub-Saharan Africa. This health concern is mostly evident among high-risk groups, namely Female Sex Workers (FSWs) and Men who have Sex with Men (MSMs), both of whom are more susceptible to sexually transmissible infections. This research examined the persistence, uptake, and associated predictors of PrEP utilization within the FSW and MSM populations.

Methods

A cross-sectional study design was conducted involving 4872 individuals from the FSW and MSM groups who were enrolled in a PrEP program across 10 health centers participating in a pilot initiative. The study population was subject to a year-long follow-up period commencing on March 1st, 2019. To evaluate the determinants of PrEP utilization within FSW and MSM groups, bivariate logistic analyses and multivariate logistic regression models were employed.

Results

The findings revealed that the occurrence of PrEP uptake was 45.55% (n=2219) among FSWs and 35.42% (n=17 participants) among MSM. Regarding PrEP persistence, MSM (88.24%, n=15 participants) presented higher PrEP proportion than FSWs (78.5%, n=1742 women). Our findings disclosed that individuals aged 25-34 years (aOR=0.82; 95% CI=0.72-0.93, p=0.002), 35-44 years (aOR=0.83; 95% CI=0.71-0.97, p=0.017), and 55 years and older (OR=0.14; 95% CI=0.04-0.48, p=0.002) exhibited lower likelihoods of having low PrEP uptake than those aged 15-19 years. Moreover, individuals residing with their families (aOR=0.71; 95% CI=0.58-0.87, p<0.001), living with roommates (aOR=0.7; 95% CI=0.5-0.97, p=0.032) displayed lower odds for experiencing low PrEP uptake than their counterparts living alone.

Conclusion

This study highlighted the low uptake of PrEP among participants when compared to previous studies. These results revealed significant influences of age and living conditions on PrEP usage.

Integrating pre-exposure prophylaxis of HIV infection into family planning services: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this review was to map evidence of integrating pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention into family planning services. A comprehensive package, using a combination of PrEP and contraceptive delivery, could reduce the number of new HIV infections and/or unintended pregnancies for at-risk women and adolescent girls.

METHODS

A scoping literature search was conducted between August 2020 and October 2020. After developing the review question, electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Global Health, Web of Science) were systematically reviewed. All types of articles published from 2012 to August 2020 in English were included. The intended outcome was to identify barriers and enablers of integrating services at the client-level and provider-level.

RESULTS

38 articles met inclusion criteria, with 16 from low-and middle-income countries and 22 from high-income countries. Barriers at the client-level included a lack of risk perception associated with low uptake and continuation of PrEP and pill burden; and at the provider-level, barriers included a lack of studies on cost-effectiveness of integrating services and provider training and knowledge. Facilitators included the initiation of PrEP and contraception at the same time and by the same provider or HIV self-testing.

CONCLUSION

Mapping and synthesising current evidence, this review identified key barriers and facilitators for the integration of PrEP into family planning services for women and adolescent girls. In order to address these factors, more implementation research in a variety of settings is needed to meet women's sexual and reproductive health needs globally.

Counterfactual estimation of efficacy against placebo for novel PrEP agents using external trial data: example of injectable cabotegravir and oral PrEP in women

INTRODUCTION

Multiple antiretroviral agents have demonstrated efficacy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). As a result, clinical trials of novel agents have transitioned from placebo- to active-controlled designs; however, active-controlled trials do not provide an estimate of efficacy versus no use of PrEP. Counterfactual placebo comparisons using other data sources could be employed to provide this information.

METHODS

We compared the active-controlled study (HPTN 084) of injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) versus daily oral emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF) among women from seven countries in Africa to three external, contemporaneous randomized HIV prevention trials from which we constructed counterfactual placebo estimates. We used direct standardization via analysis weights to achieve the same distribution of person-years between the external study and HPTN 084, across strata predictive of HIV risk (country and selected risk covariates). We estimated prevention efficacy against a counterfactual placebo to provide information on the use of CAB-LA and FTC/TDF compared to no intervention. We compared the counterfactual placebo findings for FTC/TDF to previous placebo-controlled trials, adjusted for observed adherence to daily pills.

RESULTS

Distribution of age and baseline prevalence of gonorrhoea and chlamydia were similar among matched counterfactual placebo and observed HPTN 084 arms after standardization. Counterfactual estimates of CAB-LA versus placebo in all three settings showed a consistent risk reduction of 93%-94%, with lower bounds of the confidence intervals above 72%. Observed adherence (quantifiable tenofovir in plasma) in HPTN 084 was 54%-56%, and estimated efficacy of daily oral FTC/TDF against a counterfactual placebo was consistent with a predicted risk reduction of 39%-40% for this level of daily pill use.

CONCLUSIONS

Counterfactual placebo rates of HIV acquisition derived from external trial data in similar locations and time can be used to support estimates of placebo-based efficacy of a novel HIV prevention agent. External trial data must be standardized to be representative of the clinical trial cohort testing the novel HIV prevention agent, accounting for confounders.

Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year.

FINDINGS

Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114.

INTERPRETATION

Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Service delivery models that promote linkages to PrEP for adolescent girls and young women and men in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an emerging biomedical prevention intervention. Documenting PrEP service delivery models (SDMs) that promote linkage to and continuation of PrEP will inform guidelines and maximise roll-out.

OBJECTIVES

To synthesise and appraise the effectiveness and feasibility of PrEP SDMs designed to promote linkage to PrEP care among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) and men in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Primary quantitative and qualitative studies published in English and conducted in SSA were included. No restrictions on the date of publication were applied.

SOURCES OF EVIDENCE

Methodology outlined in the Joanna Briggs Institute reviewers' manual was followed. PubMed, Cochrane library, Scopus, Web of Science and online-conference abstract archives were searched.

CHARTING METHODS

Data on article, population, intervention characteristics and key outcomes was charted in REDCap.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Of the 1204 identified records, 37 (met the inclusion criteria. Health facility-based integrated models of PrEP delivery with family planning, maternal and child health or sexual and reproductive services to AGYW resulted in PrEP initiation of 16%-90%. Community-based drop-in centres (66%) was the preferred PrEP outlet for AGYW compared with public clinics (25%) and private clinics (9%). Most men preferred community-based delivery models. Among individuals who initiated PrEP, 50% were men, 62% were <35 years old and 97% were tested at health fairs compared with home testing. Integrated antiretroviral therapy (ART)-PrEP delivery was favoured among serodiscordant couples with 82.9% of couples using PrEP or ART with no HIV seroconversions. PrEP initiation within healthcare facilities was increased by perceived client-friendly services and non-judgemental healthcare workers. Barriers to PrEP initiation included distance to travel to and time spent at health facilities and perceived community stigma. PrEP SDMs for AGYW and men need to be tailored to the needs and preferences for each group. Programme implementers should promote community-based SDMs to increase PrEP initiation among AGYW and men.

Correlates of Dapivirine Vaginal Ring Acceptance among Women Participating in an Open Label Extension Trial

MTN-025/HOPE was an open-label trial of the dapivirine vaginal ring conducted in four African countries between 2016 and 2018. Women were first offered one ring monthly (at baseline, months 1 and 2), thereafter, transitioned to a more applicable real-world dispensation schedule, - 3 rings quarterly (at months 3, 6 and 9). Logistic regression analysis was used to assess correlates of ring acceptance at baseline and through follow-up. A total of 1456 women (median age 31 years) enrolled, 1342 (92.2%) accepted the ring at baseline and 1163 (79.9%) accepted the ring(s) at all visits. Changing ring dispensation from a monthly to a quarterly schedule had no negative effect on acceptance. Having a primary partner and him knowing about the ring being offered in HOPE, use of long-acting contraception (implants, injections, IUDs) or sterilization were associated with ring acceptance, along with prior strong intention to use the ring in the future. Efforts should consider these factors when rolling out the ring for HIV prevention.

Study design and baseline to evaluate water service provision among peri-urban communities in Kasai Oriental, Democratic Republic of the Congo

We present a study design and baseline results to establish the impact of interventions on peri-urban water access, security and quality in Kasai Oriental province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In standard development practice, program performance is tracked via monitoring and evaluation frameworks of varying sophistication and rigor. Monitoring and evaluation, while usually occurring nearly concurrently with program delivery, may or may not measure parameters that can identify performance with respect to the project's overall goals. Impact evaluations, often using tightly controlled trial designs and conducted over years, challenge iterative program evolution. This study will pilot an implementation science impact evaluation approach in the areas immediately surrounding 14 water service providers, at each surveying 100 randomly-selected households and conducting water quality assessments at 25 randomly-selected households and five water points every three months. We present preliminary point-of-collection and point-of-use baseline data. This study is utilizing a variety of short- and medium-term monitoring and impact evaluation methods to provide feedback at multiple points during the intervention. Rapid feedback monitoring will assess the continuity of water services, point-of-consumption and point-of-collection microbial water quality, household water security, household measures of health status, ability and willingness to pay for water and sanitation service provision, and service performance monitoring. Long-term evaluation will focus on the use of qualitative comparative analysis whereby we will investigate the combination of factors that lead to improved water access, security and quality.

"Pharmacies are Everywhere, and You can get it at any Time": Experiences With Pharmacy-Based PrEP Delivery Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Kisumu, Kenya

INTRODUCTION

Many Kenyan adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) with behaviors associated with HIV acquisition access contraception at retail pharmacies. Offering oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in pharmacies could help reach AGYW with PrEP services.

METHODS

We piloted PrEP delivery at 3 retail pharmacies in Kisumu, Kenya. AGYW purchasing contraception were offered PrEP by nurses with remote prescriber oversight. AGYW who accepted were provided with a free 1-month supply. We conducted in-depth interviews with AGYW 30 days postobtaining PrEP. Transcripts were analyzed to explore experiences of AGYW accessing PrEP at pharmacies.

RESULTS

We conducted 41 interviews. AGYW preferred pharmacies for accessing PrEP and they were willing to pay for PrEP even if available for free at clinics. Reasons for this preference included accessibility, lack of queues, and medication stockouts, privacy, anonymity, autonomy, and high-quality counseling from our study nurses.

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacies may be an important PrEP access option for this population.

Brief Report: Quantifiable Plasma Tenofovir Among South African Women Using Daily Oral Pre-exposure Prophylaxis During the ECHO Trial

BACKGROUND

HIV endpoint-driven clinical trials provide oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as HIV prevention standard of care. We evaluated quantifiable plasma tenofovir among South African women who used oral PrEP during the Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes (ECHO) Trial.

METHODS

ECHO, a randomized trial conducted in 4 African countries between 2015 and 2018, assessed HIV incidence among HIV-uninfected women, aged 16-35 years, randomized to 1 of 3 contraceptives. Oral PrEP was offered onsite as part of the HIV prevention package at the South African trial sites. We measured tenofovir in plasma samples collected at the final trial visit among women reporting ongoing PrEP use. We used bivariate and multivariate logistical regression to assess demographic and sexual risk factors associated with plasma tenofovir quantification.

RESULTS

Of 260 women included, 52% were ≤24 years and 22% had Chlamydia trachomatis at enrollment. At PrEP initiation, 68% reported inconsistent/nonuse of condoms. The median duration of PrEP use was 90 days (IQR: 83-104). Tenofovir was quantified in 36% (n = 94) of samples. Women >24 years had twice the odds of having tenofovir quantified vs younger women (OR = 2.12; 95% confidence interval = 1.27 to 3.56). Women who reported inconsistent/nonuse of condoms had lower odds of tenofovir quantification (age-adjusted OR = 0.47; 95% confidence interval = 0.26 to 0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Over a third of women initiating PrEP and reporting ongoing use at the final trial visit had evidence of recent drug exposure. Clinical trials may serve as an entry point for PrEP initiation among women at substantial risk for HIV infection with referral to local facilities for ongoing access at trial end.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT02550067.

High HIV incidence among young women in South Africa: Data from a large prospective study

Introduction

South Africa has the highest national burden of HIV globally. Understanding drivers of HIV acquisition in recently completed, prospective studies in which HIV was an endpoint may help inform the strategy and investments in national HIV prevention efforts and guide the design of future HIV prevention trials. We assessed HIV incidence and correlates of incidence among women enrolled in ECHO (Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes), a large, open-label randomized clinical trial that compared three highly effective. reversible methods of contraception and rates of HIV acquisition.

Methods

During December 2015 to October 2018, ECHO followed sexually active, HIV-seronegative women, aged 16–35 years, seeking contraceptive services and willing to be randomized to one of three contraceptive methods (intramuscular depot medroxyprogesterone acetate, copper intrauterine device, or levonorgestrel implant) for 12–18 months at nine sites in South Africa. HIV incidence based on prospectively observed HIV seroconversion events. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to define baseline cofactors related to incident HIV infection.

Results

5768 women were enrolled and contributed 7647 woman-years of follow-up. The median age was 23 years and 62.5% were ≤24 years. A total of 345 incident HIV infections occurred, an incidence of 4.51 per 100 woman-years (95%CI 4.05–5.01). Incidence was >3 per 100 woman-years at all sites. Age ≤24 years, baseline infection with sexually transmitted infections, BMI≤30, and having new or multiple partners in the three months prior to enrollment were associated with incident HIV.

Conclusions

HIV incidence was high among South African women seeking contraceptive services. Integration of diagnostic management of sexually transmitted infections alongside delivery of HIV prevention options in health facilities providing contraception services are needed to mitigate ongoing risks of HIV acquisition for this vulnerable population.

Clinical trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02550067 was the main Clinical Trial from which this secondary, non-randomized / observational analysis was derived with data limited to just South African sites.

The case for prevention - Primary HIV prevention in the era of universal test and treat: A mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

As antiretroviral therapy (ART) has scaled up and HIV incidence has declined, some have questioned the continued utility of HIV prevention. This study examines the role and cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention in the context of "universal test and treat" (UTT) in three sub-Saharan countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

METHODS

Scenarios were created in Spectrum/Goals models for Lesotho, Mozambique, and Uganda with various combinations of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC); pre-exposure prophylaxis; and a highly effective, durable, hypothetical vaccine layered onto three different ART scenarios. One ART scenario held coverage constant at 2008 levels to replicate prevention modeling studies that were conducted prior to UTT. One scenario assumed scale-up to the UNAIDS treatment goals of 90-90-90 by 2025 and 95-95-95 by 2030. An intermediate scenario held ART constant at 2019 coverage. HIV incidence was visualized over time, and cost per HIV infection averted was assessed over 5-, 15-, and 30-year time frames, with 3% annual discounting.

FINDINGS

Each prevention intervention reduced HIV incidence beyond what was achieved by ART scale-up alone to the 90-90-90/95-95-95 goals, with near-zero incidence achievable by combinations of interventions covering all segments of the population. Cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention may decrease as HIV incidence decreases, but one-time interventions like VMMC and a durable vaccine may remain cost-effective and even cost-saving as ART is scaled up.

INTERPRETATION

Primary HIV prevention is still needed in the era of UTT. Combination prevention is more impactful than a single, highly effective intervention. Broad population coverage of primary prevention, regardless of cost-effectiveness, will be required in generalized epidemic countries to eradicate HIV.

HIV PrEP is more than ART-lite: Longitudinal study of real-world PrEP services data identifies missing measures meaningful to HIV prevention programming

INTRODUCTION

Evidence indicates HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious and effective. Substantial early discontinuation rates are reported by many programs, which may be misconstrued as program failure. However, PrEP use may be non-continuous and still effective, since HIV risk fluctuates. Real-world PrEP use phenomena, like restarting and cyclical use, and the temporal characteristics of these use patterns are not well described. The objective of our study was to characterize and identify predictors of use patterns observed in large PrEP scale-up programs in Africa.

METHODS

We analysed demographic and clinical data routinely collected during client visits between 2017 and 2019 in three Jhpiego-supported programs in Kenya, Lesotho and Tanzania. We characterized duration on/off PrEP and, using ordinal regression, modelled the likelihood of spending additional time off and identified factors associated with increasing cycle number. The Andersen-Gill model was used to identify predictors of time to PrEP discontinuation. To analyse factors associated with a client's first return following initiation, we used a two-step Heckman probit.

RESULTS

Among 47,532 clients initiating PrEP, approximately half returned for follow-up. With each increase in cycle number, time off PrEP between use cycles decreased. The Heckman first-step model showed an increased probability of returning versus not by older age groups and among key and vulnerable population groups versus the general population; in the second-step model older age groups and key and vulnerable populations were less likely in Kenya, but more likely in Lesotho, to return on-time (refill) versus delayed (restarting).

CONCLUSIONS

PrEP users frequently cycle on and off PrEP. Early discontinuation and delays in obtaining additional prescriptions were common, with broad predictive variability noted. Time off PrEP decreased with cycle number in all countries, suggesting normalization of use with experience. More nuanced measures of use are needed than exist for HIV treatment if effective use of PrEP is to be meaningfully measured. Providers should be equipped with measures and counselling messages that recognize non-continuous and cyclical use patterns so that clients are supported to align fluctuating risk and use, and can readily restart PrEP after stopping, in effect empowering them further to make their own prevention choices.