Gone or forgotten? The rise and fall of Zika virus

Herd immunity to endemic diseases: Historical concepts and implications for public health policy

BACKGROUND

"Herd immunity" became a contested term during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the term "herd immunity" is often used to refer to thresholds at which some diseases can be eliminated (e.g., due to mass vaccination), the term has multiple referents. Different concepts of herd immunity have been relevant throughout the history of immunology and infectious disease epidemiology. For some diseases, herd immunity plays a role in the development of an endemic equilibrium, rather than elimination via threshold effects.

METHODS

We reviewed academic literature from 1920 to 2022, using historical and philosophical analysis to identify and develop relevant concepts of herd immunity.

RESULTS

This paper analyses the ambiguity surrounding the concept of herd immunity during the pandemic. We argue for the need to recapture a long-standing interpretation of this concept as one of the factors that leads to a dynamic endemic equilibrium between a host population and a mutating respiratory pathogen.

CONCLUSIONS

Informed by the history of infectious disease epidemiology, we argue that understanding the concept in this way will help us manage both SARS-CoV-2 and hundreds of other seasonal respiratory pathogens with which we live but which have been disrupted due to sustained public health measures/non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2.

Natural infection by Zika virus but not DNA vaccination consistently elicits antibodies that compete with two potently neutralising monoclonal antibodies targeting distinct epitopes

BACKGROUND

Autochthonous transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) has been reported in 87 countries since 2015. Although most infections are mild, there is risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Vaccines are urgently needed to prevent Zika, but sufficient understanding of humoral responses and tools to assess ZIKV-specific immunity are lacking.

METHODS

We developed a blockade-of-binding (BOB) ELISA using A9E and G9E, two strongly neutralising ZIKV-specific monoclonal antibodies, which do not react with dengue virus. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis assessed A9E and G9E BOB serodiagnostic performance. BOB was then applied to samples from a surveillance cohort in Risaralda, Colombia, and phase 1 ZIKV vaccine trial samples, comparing results against traditional serologic tests.

FINDINGS

In the validation sample set (n = 120), A9E BOB has a sensitivity of 93.5% (95% CI: 79.3, 98.9) and specificity 97.8 (95% CI: 92.2, 99.6). G9E BOB had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 89.0, 100.0) and specificity 100% (95% CI: 95.9, 100). Serum from natural infections consistently tested positive in these assays for up to one year, and reactivity tracks well with ZIKV infection status among sera from endemic areas with complicated flavivirus exposures. Interestingly, a leading ZIKV vaccine candidate elicited minimal BOB reactivity despite generating neutralising antibody responses.

INTERPRETATION

In conclusion, A9E and G9E BOB assays are sensitive and specific assays for detecting antibodies elicited by recent or remote ZIKV infections. Given the additional ability of these BOB assays to detect immune responses that target different epitopes, further development of these assays is well justified for applications including flavivirus surveillance, translational vaccinology research and as potential serologic correlates of protective immunity against Zika.

FUNDING

R21 AI129532 (PI: S. Becker-Dreps), CDCBAA 2017-N-18041 (PI: A. M. de Silva), Thrasher Fund (PI: M. H. Collins), K22 AI137306 (PI: M. H. Collins).

Leon K, Ontiveros CO, Agarwal R, Tsetsarkin KA, Harris E, Ebel GD, Wohl S, Grubaugh ND, Andersen KG. Genomic and phenotypic analyses suggest moderate fitness differences among Zika virus lineages

RNA viruses have short generation times and high mutation rates, allowing them to undergo rapid molecular evolution during epidemics. However, the extent of RNA virus phenotypic evolution within epidemics and the resulting effects on fitness and virulence remain mostly unknown. Here, we screened the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in the Americas for lineage-specific fitness differences. We engineered a library of recombinant viruses representing twelve major Zika virus lineages and used them to measure replicative fitness within disease-relevant human primary cells and live mosquitoes. We found that two of these lineages conferred significant in vitro replicative fitness changes among human primary cells, but we did not find fitness changes in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Additionally, we found evidence for elevated levels of positive selection among five amino acid sites that define major Zika virus lineages. While our work suggests that Zika virus may have acquired several phenotypic changes during a short time scale, these changes were relatively moderate and do not appear to have enhanced transmission during the epidemic.

Using machine learning to understand microgeographic determinants of the Zika vector, Aedes aegypti

There are limited data on why the 2016 Zika outbreak in Miami-Dade County, Florida was confined to certain neighborhoods. In this research, Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of Zika virus, are studied to examine neighborhood-level differences in their population dynamics and underlying processes. Weekly mosquito data were acquired from the Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division from 2016 to 2020 from 172 traps deployed around Miami-Dade County. Using random forest, a machine learning method, predictive models of spatiotemporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti in response to meteorological conditions and neighborhood-specific socio-demographic and physical characteristics, such as land-use and land-cover type and income level, were created. The study area was divided into two groups: areas affected by local transmission of Zika during the 2016 outbreak and unaffected areas. Ae. aegypti populations in areas affected by Zika were more strongly influenced by 14- and 21-day lagged weather conditions. In the unaffected areas, mosquito populations were more strongly influenced by land-use and day-of-collection weather conditions. There are neighborhood-scale differences in Ae. aegypti population dynamics. These differences in turn influence vector-borne disease diffusion in a region. These results have implications for vector control experts to lead neighborhood-specific vector control strategies and for epidemiologists to guide vector-borne disease risk preparations, especially for containing the spread of vector-borne disease in response to ongoing climate change.

The global trends and regional differences in incidence of Zika virus infection and implications for Zika virus infection prevention

Background

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has potential result in severe birth effects. An improved understanding of global trend and regional differences is needed.

Methods

Annual ZIKV infection episodes and incidence rates were collected from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Episodes changes and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) were calculated. Top passenger airport-pairs were obtained from the International Air Transport Association to understand places susceptible to imported ZIKV cases.

Results

Globally, the ASR increased by an average of 72.85% (95%CI: 16.47% to 156.53%) per year from 2011 to 2015 and subsequently decreased from 20.25 per 100,000 in 2015 to 3.44 per 100,000 in 2019. Most of ZIKV infections clustered in Latin America. The proportion of episodes in Central and Tropical Latin America decreased in 2019 with sporadic episodes elsewhere. High Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions had more episodes in 2019 than in 2015. Additionally, 15–49 years group had the largest proportion of episodes, females had a higher number of episodes, and a higher incidence rate of 70 plus group was observed in males than females. Certain cities in Europe, North America and Latin America/Caribbean had a high population mobility in ZIKV outbreak areas considered a high risk of imported cases.

Conclusions

ZIKV infection is still a public health threat in Latin America and Caribbean and high SDI regions suffered an increasing trend of ZIKV infection. Interventions such as development of surveillance networks and vector-control should be attached to ZIKV control in these key regions. Reproductive suggestions should be taken to reduce ZIKV-related birth defects for the people of reproductive age who are facing a higher threat of ZIKV infection, especially females. Moreover, surveillance of travellers is needed to reverse the uptrends of travel-related imported ZIKV infection. More studies focusing on ZIKV should be performed to make targeted and effective prevention strategies in the future.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is a mosquito-borne illness and has potential result in severe birth effects. Currently, ZIKV is still causing an unprecedented ongoing epidemic in Latin America and threatening North America and potentially the rest of the world. This is the first study to assess the global landscape, long-term trends and regional differences in the incidence of ZIKV infection using the data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, including the description of ZIKV infection episodes by different sex and by different year group, as well as the relationship between international travellers and imported ZIKV cases. Our study can not only serve as complement to previous studies, but also provide a more comprehensive perspective of global ZIKV infection prevention strategies.

Experience with a triplex arbovirus nucleic acid test (NAT) at a Canadian Public Health Laboratory

BACKGROUND

Dengue, chikungunya and zika infections occur in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. We describe the utilization of an in-house nucleic acid test (NAT) targeting all three viruses for febrile returning travelers in Alberta, Canada.

METHODS

NAT was performed until 40 days from symptom onset or exposure due to the prolonged duration of zika virus RNA detection. From Sept 1, 2017 to August 31, 2019, 2552 specimens from 1932 patients were tested.

RESULTS

Approximately 2% of patients tested were NAT positive for dengue virus (n = 42), chikungunya virus (n = 4), and zika virus (n = 1). The majority presented with fever, myalgia and rash. Regions with the most frequent travel included SouthEast Asia (68.5%), South America (25%) and the Caribbean (6.5%). Ct values were stronger (~ 1.5 logs) for patients within 1-3 days following onset of clinical symptoms than those presenting later. Nineteen patients had urine and plasma submitted; 5 were positive for both specimens and 2 were positive only for dengue virus in the urine. Also, Ct values were lower for plasma when compared to the corresponding urine. RNA was detected until 10 days and 5 days post-exposure in plasma and urine respectively for dengue virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Owing to dengue viremia detected beyond the conventional 7 days and low levels of circulating zika virus globally, a cutoff of 14 days from symptom onset to NAT is sufficient to diagnose acute cases. Inclusion of a zoonotic history form that collects appropriate clinical history results in improved test utilization.

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature-dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid-century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.

A Comparison of Zika Virus and COVID-19: Clinical Overview and Public Health Messaging

Prenatal exposure to the Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with a significant risk of neurological impairment for infants. ZIKV serves as a cautionary model with significant parallels to the current coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A limited literature search was performed to compare and contrast the clinical and psychosocial aspects of infection with ZIKV and COVID-19. There are significant parallels between ZIKV disease and COVID-19 in terms of limited diagnostic techniques, therapeutics, and prognostic uncertainties. Both infections are associated with a significant risk of adverse outcomes for either the pregnant individual or the fetus. Existing social and economic inequalities amplify the risk burden of ZIKV disease and COVID-19 in vulnerable communities. Although each pathogen has unique features, there are underlying common principles with regard to the recognition, communication, and mitigation of risk of infection. Misinformation spread by social media platforms has undermined public health efforts and patient adoption of recommended mitigation strategies. Health care providers can provide partnership, social support, and evidence-based information to enhance health-seeking behaviors, thereby minimizing the risks for pregnant and reproductive-aged persons.

The Absence of Yellow Fever in Asia: History, Hypotheses, Vector Dispersal, Possibility of YF in Asia, and Other Enigmas

Since the recent epidemics of yellow fever in Angola and Brazil as well as the importation of cases to China in 2016, there has been an increased interest in the century-old enigma, absence of yellow fever in Asia. Although this topic has been repeatedly reviewed before, the history of human intervention has never been considered a critical factor. A two-stage literature search online for this review, however, yielded a rich history indispensable for the debate over this medical enigma. As we combat the pandemic of COVID-19 coronavirus worldwide today, we can learn invaluable lessons from the historical events in Asia. In this review, I explore the history first and then critically examine in depth major hypotheses proposed in light of accumulated data, global dispersal of the principal vector, patterns of YF transmission, persistence of urban transmission, and the possibility of YF in Asia. Through this process of re-examination of the current knowledge, the subjects for research that should be conducted are identified. This review also reveals the importance of holistic approach incorporating ecological and human factors for many unresolved subjects, such as the enigma of YF absence in Asia, vector competence, vector dispersal, spillback, viral persistence and transmission mechanisms.

Potent Restriction of Sexual Zika Virus Infection by the Lipid Fraction of Extracellular Vesicles in Semen

Sexual Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission from men to women occurs less frequently than the often-detected high viral loads in semen would suggest, but worries that this transmission route predisposes to fetal damage in pregnant women remain. To better understand sexual ZIKV pathogenesis, we studied the permissiveness of the human female genital tract to infection and the effect of semen on this process. ZIKV replicates in vaginal tissues and primary epithelial cells from the vagina, ectocervix, and endocervix and induces an innate immune response, but also continues to replicate without cytopathic effect. Infection of genital cells and tissues is strongly inhibited by extracellular vesicles (EV) in semen at physiological vesicle-to-virus ratios. Liposomes with the same composition as semen EVs also impair infection, indicating that the EV’s lipid fraction, rather than their protein or RNA cargo, is responsible for this anti-viral effect. Thus, EVs in semen potently restrict ZIKV transmission, but the virus propagates well once infection in the recipient mucosa has been established.

Experience in diagnosing congenital Zika syndrome in Brazilian children born to asymptomatic mothers

INTRODUCTION

Typical symptoms of primary Zika virus infection are not specific and share similarities with other arbovirus infections such as dengue fever and chikungunya. As acute infection can be asymptomatic in up to 73% of cases, infants with microcephaly represent a diagnostic challenge for pediatricians. We describe the frequency of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) in Brazilian children born to asymptomatic pregnant mothers and its differential diagnosis.

METHODS

This longitudinal, observational study was conducted on children with suspected CZS whose mothers did not report rash during pregnancy, referred to the reference hospital in a metropolitan area of ​ Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The diagnosis of suspected CZS was based on Brazilian Ministry of Health protocol.

RESULTS

Forty-three (17%) of 246 referred children were born to mothers without rash history during pregnancy. Thirteen (30%) of 43 children met the Brazilian Ministry of Health criteria for CZS, all with microcephaly (two post-natal). The other children included 11 cases with post-natal microcephaly due to hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (6), non-progressive encephalopathy of unknown etiology (2), microcephaly under investigation (2) and congenital toxoplasmosis (1); 17 children were misdiagnosed with microcephaly and progressed with normal head circumference during the follow-up period; one child was included because of epidemiological link and one was loss to follow-up. All children who underwent laboratory investigation for ZIKV infection during neonatal period had negative RT-qPCR tests.

CONCLUSION

We emphasize the increasing importance of CZS in differential diagnosis of microcephaly at birth or post-natal period. Detailed clinical investigation assisted by neuroimaging tests may clarify the diagnosis of CZS when laboratory tests are not available during the acute phase of the disease.

Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil

Despite all the research done on the first Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, it was only after the Brazilian epidemic that the Congenital Zika Syndrome was described. This was made possible due to the large number of babies born with microcephaly in the Northeast region (NE) in a narrow time. We hypothesize that the fivefold difference in the rate of microcephalic neonates between the NE and other regions is partially an effect of the population prior immunity against Dengue viruses (DENV), that cross-react with ZIKV. In this ecological study, we analysed the interaction between dengue fever epidemics from 2001 to 2014 and the 2015/2016 microcephaly epidemic in 400 microregions in Brazil using random-effects models under a Bayesian approach. The estimated effect of the time lag between the most recent large dengue epidemic (>400/100,000 inhabitants) and the microcephaly epidemic ranged from protection (up to 6 years prior) to an increased risk (from 7 to 12 years). This sustained window of protection, larger than described in previous longitudinal studies, is possibly an effect of herd immunity and of multiple exposures to DENV that could boost immunity.

A new twenty-first century science for effective epidemic response

With rapidly changing ecology, urbanization, climate change, increased travel and fragile public health systems, epidemics will become more frequent, more complex and harder to prevent and contain. Here we argue that our concept of epidemics must evolve from crisis response during discrete outbreaks to an integrated cycle of preparation, response and recovery. This is an opportunity to combine knowledge and skills from all over the world-especially at-risk and affected communities. Many disciplines need to be integrated, including not only epidemiology but also social sciences, research and development, diplomacy, logistics and crisis management. This requires a new approach to training tomorrow's leaders in epidemic prevention and response.

Inactivation of Zika Virus by Photoactive Iodonaphthyl Azide Preserves Immunogenic Potential of the Virus

Zika virus's (ZIKV) emergence as a pathogen of significant public health importance has accelerated efforts to develop a ZIKV vaccine. To date, the need for an effective ZIKV vaccine is unmet. In this study, we report inactivation of ZIKV using a hydrophobic photoactive compound: 1, 5 iodonaphthyl azide (INA). 50 and 100 µM of INA completely inactivated ZIKV (INA-ZIKV). Western blot and ELISA analysis show some loss of the binding capacity of INA-iZIKV to anti-ZIKV monoclonal antibodies; however, immunization of mice with INA-iZIKV demonstrated seroconversion and ZIKV-neutralizing antibody response. RNA isolated from INA-iZIKV did not induce productive infection in Vero cells, suggesting inactivation of ZIKV RNA. These results suggest that in the absence of an approved ZIKV vaccine, INA-iZIKV can be pursued as a viable ZIKV vaccine candidate.

Clinical Trials and Administration of Zika Virus Vaccine in Pregnant Women: Lessons (that Should Have Been) Learned from Excluding Immunization with the Ebola Vaccine during Pregnancy and Lactation

As evidenced from recent epidemics, both Ebola and Zika virus infection are potentially catastrophic when occurring in pregnant women. Ebola virus causes extremely high rates of mortality in both mothers and infants; Zika virus is a TORCH infection that produces a congenital malformation syndrome and pediatric neurodevelopmental abnormalities. Production of efficacious vaccines has been a public health priority for both infections. Unfortunately, during the clinical trials and subsequent deployment of a vaccine for the Ebola virus, pregnant and lactating women were, and continue to be, excluded from receiving the life-saving vaccine. The most serious consequence of Zika virus infection, congenital Zika syndrome, results from fetal infection during pregnancy. Thus, pregnant women have a major stake in the ongoing development of a vaccine for Zika virus. The exclusion of pregnant women from the development, clinical trials and administration of a potential Zika vaccine unfairly deprives them and their infants of the protection they need against this potentially catastrophic intrauterine infection. When creating policy about these issues, it is important to critically evaluate vaccine safety in pregnancy in the context of the substantial risk of infection for the pregnant woman and her fetus in the absence of immunization.

Pregnant women's attitudes toward Zika virus vaccine trial participation

INTRODUCTION

As Zika virus infection during pregnancy can cause a range of congenital anomalies, pregnant women may be a target population for vaccination in future outbreaks. Their inclusion in vaccine trials is critical to ensure safe and effective vaccines in pregnancy. Though many vaccine candidates are in development, pregnant women's willingness to participate in Zika virus vaccine research is unknown. This study aims to describe pregnant women's attitudes toward Zika virus vaccine research participation, as well as perceived barriers to and facilitators of enrollment.

METHODS

Pregnant and recently postpartum women (n = 128) attending prenatal care at Massachusetts General Hospital completed surveys querying their willingness to participate in four hypothetical Zika virus vaccine trials and their motivations for participation. Demographics, information on prior Zika virus exposure, and vaccine acceptance were collected.

RESULTS

Most women (77%) accepted participation in at least one hypothetical Zika virus vaccine trial, and women were significantly more likely to accept prospective enrollment in an inactivated vaccine trial compared to a live-attenuated vaccine trial (p-value <0.0001) or a nucleic acid-based vaccine trial (p-value <0.0444). Important motivators for participation included evidence from research with pregnant and non-pregnant people, a desire to protect the baby from Zika, perceptions of vaccine safety, and provider recommendation.

CONCLUSIONS

A majority of women in this cohort were willing to participate in a Zika virus vaccine trial while pregnant, however, differences in acceptance exist between vaccine platforms. The high value placed on evidence by participants highlights the importance of gathering and communicating pregnancy-specific data to potential research participants and their providers. Women's motivations for accepting research participation during pregnancy are important to inform the Zika virus vaccine research agenda, candidate prioritization, and trial design.

Human Mobility and the Global Spread of Infectious Diseases: A Focus on Air Travel

Greater human mobility, largely driven by air travel, is leading to an increase in the frequency and reach of infectious disease epidemics. Air travel can rapidly connect any two points on the planet, and this has the potential to cause swift and broad dissemination of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases that may pose a threat to global health security. Investments to strengthen surveillance, build robust early-warning systems, improve predictive models, and coordinate public health responses may help to prevent, detect, and respond to new infectious disease epidemics.