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Kim Y, Oh J, Kim S, Kim A, Park J, Ahn S, Kang C, Kim S, Lee HJ, Lee JT, Lee W. Relationship between short-term ozone exposure, cause-specific mortality, and high-risk populations: A nationwide, time-stratified, case-crossover study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 261:119712. [PMID: 39096989 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2024] [Revised: 07/29/2024] [Accepted: 07/30/2024] [Indexed: 08/05/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies reported that short-term exposure to ground-level ozone is associated with mortality risk. However, due to the limited monitored areas, existing studies were limited in assessing the nationwide risk and suggesting specific vulnerable populations to the ozone-mortality risk. METHODS We performed a nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study to evaluate the association between short-term ozone and cause-specific mortality in South Korea (2015-2019). A machine learning-ensemble prediction model (a test R2 > 0.96) was used to assess the short-term ozone exposure. Stratification analysis was conducted to examine the high-risk populations, and the excess mortality due to non-compliance with the WHO guideline was also assessed. RESULTS For all-cause mortality (1,343,077 cases), the risk associated with ozone (lag0- 1) was weakly identified (odd ratio: 1.005 with 95% CI: 0.997-1.014), and the risk was prominent in mortality with circulatory system diseases. In addition, based on the point estimates, the ozone-mortality risk was higher in people aged less than 65y, and this pattern was also observed in circulatory system disease deaths and urban areas. CONCLUSIONS This study provides national estimates of mortality risks associated with short-term ozone. Results showed that the benefits of stricter air quality standards could be greater in vulnerable populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yejin Kim
- School of the Biomedical Convergence Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Jieun Oh
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sooyeong Kim
- School of the Biomedical Convergence Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Ayoung Kim
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jinah Park
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seoyeong Ahn
- Department of Information Convergence Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Cinoo Kang
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sera Kim
- Multidisciplinary Research Center for Public Health in Complex System, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Research and Management Center for Health Risk of Particulate Matter, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Hyung Joo Lee
- Research and Management Center for Health Risk of Particulate Matter, Seoul, Republic of Korea; The Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Republic of Korea; Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology, Yonsei University, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong Tae Lee
- Research and Management Center for Health Risk of Particulate Matter, Seoul, Republic of Korea; School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Sciences, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Biomedical Convergence Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea; Research and Management Center for Health Risk of Particulate Matter, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
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Gasparrini A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Tobias A. The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network: An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health. Environ Epidemiol 2024; 8:e339. [PMID: 39263673 PMCID: PMC11390054 DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2024] [Accepted: 08/08/2024] [Indexed: 09/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Research on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
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Cheng G, Qu R, Song G, Li X, Zhang F, Wang J, Li W, Wen J, Xiao Y, Wei Y, Zhang W, Yi X, Li S, Ding J, Zhang Y. Association of ambient temperature and diurnal temperature range with the outcome of in vitro fertilization in women from Hubei, China: A retrospective cohort study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024:120072. [PMID: 39341537 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.120072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2024] [Revised: 09/08/2024] [Accepted: 09/25/2024] [Indexed: 10/01/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To examine the relationship between ambient temperature and DTR and pregnancy outcomes in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic monosperm injection and embryo transfer (IVF/ICSI-ET) women. METHODS The study included 5,264 women who were treated with IVF/ICSI-ET at two centers in Hubei province from 2017 to 2022. The daily mean, daily maximum, and daily minimum temperatures at the subjects' home addresses were extracted, and DTR values were calculated based on latter two. The associations between ambient temperature and DTR with clinical pregnancy and live birth rates were assessed using multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for covariates. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to explore potential modifiers. RESULT High/low temperatures as well as a larger DTR had a significant effect on pregnancy outcomes in fresh cycles, but not in FET cycles. Specifically, hot weather exposure to high temperatures was associated with reduced clinical pregnancy rates: Period4 (embryo transfer to serum HCG testing) (aOR = 0.873, 95%CI: 0.763-0.999). Ambient temperature in cold weather was positively associated with live birth rate: Period 2 (Gn initiation to oocyte retrieval) (aOR = 1.082, 95% CI: 1.01-1.170), Period 3 (oocyte retrieval to embryo transfer) (aOR = 1.111, 95% CI: 1.019-1.212), Period 4 (aOR = 1.134, 95% CI: 1.028-1.252), and Period7 (85 days prior to oocyte retrieval to serum hCG testing) (aOR = 1.105, 95% CI: 1.007-1.212). For DTR, exposure to larger DTR (Q3) at Period2, Period3, and Period6 (Gn initiation to embryo transfer) reduces clinical pregnancy and live birth rates compared with Q1. Subgroup analyses revealed susceptibility profiles across age groups and residential address populations in different sensitivity windows. CONCLUSION Our study shows that exposure to hot and cold weather and higher DTR reduces clinical pregnancy rates and live birth rates in women undergoing fresh embryo transfer, but has no significant effect on FET cycles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guan Cheng
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, institute of translational medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Rui Qu
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Ge Song
- Hubei Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing of Land and Atmosphere, School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Hubei, 430000, China
| | - Xing Li
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430060, China
| | - Feng Zhang
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Jingxuan Wang
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Wenzhu Li
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Jiahui Wen
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, institute of translational medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Yanfei Xiao
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, institute of translational medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Yiqiu Wei
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Weiqian Zhang
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Xiaofang Yi
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, Renhe Hospital, Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443000, PR China
| | - Siwei Li
- Hubei Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing of Land and Atmosphere, School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Hubei, 430000, China; Hubei Luojia Laboratory, Wuhan University, Hubei, 430000, China; State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Hubei, 430000, China
| | - Jinli Ding
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China
| | - Yan Zhang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, institute of translational medicine, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, PR China.
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Gao Y, Lin L, Yin P, Kan H, Chen R, Zhou M. Heat Exposure and Dementia-Related Mortality in China. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e2419250. [PMID: 38941091 PMCID: PMC11214125 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.19250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/27/2024] [Indexed: 06/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Importance Although existing research has found daily heat to be associated with dementia-related outcomes, there is still a gap in understanding the differing associations of nighttime and daytime heat with dementia-related deaths. Objectives To quantitatively assess the risk and burden of dementia-related deaths associated with short-term nighttime and daytime heat exposure and identify potential effect modifications. Design, Setting, and Participants This case-crossover study analyzed individual death records for dementia across all mainland China counties from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2019, using a time-stratified case-crossover approach. Statistical analysis was conducted from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2019. Exposures Two novel heat metrics: hot night excess (HNE) and hot day excess (HDE), representing nighttime and daytime heat intensity, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures Main outcomes were the relative risk and burden of dementia-related deaths associated with HNE and HDE under different definitions. Analysis was conducted with conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Results The study involved 132 573 dementia-related deaths (mean [SD] age, 82.5 [22.5] years; 73 086 women [55.1%]). For a 95% threshold, the median hot night threshold was 24.5 °C (IQR, 20.1 °C-26.2 °C) with an HNE of 3.7 °C (IQR, 3.1 °C-4.3 °C), and the median hot day threshold was 33.3 °C (IQR, 29.9 °C-34.7 °C) with an HDE of 0.6 °C (IQR, 0.5 °C-0.8 °C). Both nighttime and daytime heat were associated with increased risk of dementia-related deaths. Hot nights' associations with risk of dementia-related deaths persisted for 6 days, while hot days' associations with risk of dementia-related deaths extended over 10 days. Extreme HDE had a higher relative risk of dementia-related deaths, with a greater burden associated with extreme HNE at more stringent thresholds. At a 97.5% threshold, the odds ratio for dementia-related deaths was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.22-1.55) for extreme HNE and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.27-1.68) for extreme HDE, with an attributable fraction of 1.45% (95% empirical confidence interval [95% eCI], 1.43%-1.47%) for extreme HNE and 1.10% (95% eCI, 1.08%-1.11%) for extreme HDE. Subgroup analyses suggested heightened susceptibility among females, individuals older than 75 years of age, and those with lower educational levels. Regional disparities were observed, with individuals in the south exhibiting greater sensitivity to nighttime heat and those in the north to daytime heat. Conclusions and Relevance Results of this nationwide case-crossover study suggest that both nighttime and daytime heat are associated with increased risk of dementia-related deaths, with a greater burden associated with nighttime heat. These findings underscore the necessity of time-specific interventions to mitigate extreme heat risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ya Gao
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lin Lin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Chevance G, Minor K, Vielma C, Campi E, O'Callaghan-Gordo C, Basagaña X, Ballester J, Bernard P. A systematic review of ambient heat and sleep in a warming climate. Sleep Med Rev 2024; 75:101915. [PMID: 38598988 DOI: 10.1016/j.smrv.2024.101915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2023] [Revised: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is elevating nighttime and daytime temperatures worldwide, affecting a broad continuum of behavioral and health outcomes. Disturbed sleep is a plausible pathway linking rising ambient temperatures with several observed adverse human responses shown to increase during hot weather. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the literature investigating the relationship between ambient temperature and valid sleep outcomes measured in real-world settings, globally. We show that higher outdoor or indoor temperatures are generally associated with degraded sleep quality and quantity worldwide. The negative effect of heat persists across sleep measures, and is stronger during the hottest months and days, in vulnerable populations, and the warmest regions. Although we identify opportunities to strengthen the state of the science, limited evidence of fast sleep adaptation to heat suggests rising temperatures induced by climate change and urbanization pose a planetary threat to human sleep, and therefore health, performance, and wellbeing.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kelton Minor
- Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, United States.
| | | | | | - Cristina O'Callaghan-Gordo
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Faculty of Health Sciences, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain; Municipal Institute of Medical Research (IMIM-Hospital del Mar), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Xavier Basagaña
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Paquito Bernard
- Department of Physical Activity Sciences, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Research Center, University Institute of Mental Health at Montreal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
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6
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Sa'adi Z, Al-Suwaiyan MS, Yaseen ZM, Tan ML, Goliatt L, Heddam S, Halder B, Ahmadianfar I, Homod RZ, Shafik SS. Observed and future shifts in climate zone of Borneo based on CMIP6 models. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 360:121087. [PMID: 38735071 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2024] [Revised: 03/21/2024] [Accepted: 05/03/2024] [Indexed: 05/14/2024]
Abstract
Climate change has significantly altered the characteristics of climate zones, posing considerable challenges to ecosystems and biodiversity, particularly in Borneo, known for its high species density per unit area. This study aimed to classify the region into homogeneous climate groups based on long-term average behavior. The most effective parameters from the high-resolution daily gridded Princeton climate datasets spanning 65 years (1950-2014) were utilized, including rainfall, relative humidity (RH), temperatures (Tavg, Tmin, Tmax, and diurnal temperature range (DTR)), along with elevation data at 0.25° resolution. The FCM clustering method outperformed K-Mean and two Ward's hierarchical methods (WardD and WardD2) in classifying Borneo's climate zones based on multi-criteria assessment, exhibiting the lowest average distance (2.172-2.180) and the highest compromise programming index (CPI)-based correlation ranking among cluster averages across all climate parameters. Borneo's climate zones were categorized into four: 'Wet and cold' (WC) and 'Wet' (W) representing wetter zones, and 'Wet and hot' (WH) and 'Dry and hot' (DH) representing hotter zones, each with clearly defined boundaries. For future projection, EC-Earth3-Veg ranked first for all climate parameters across 961 grid points, emerging as the top-performing model. The linear scaling (LS) bias-corrected EC-Earth3-Veg model, as shown in the Taylor diagram, closely replicated the observed datasets, facilitating future climate zone reclassification. Improved performance across parameters was evident based on MAE (35.8-94.6%), MSE (57.0-99.5%), NRMSE (42.7-92.1%), PBIAS (100-108%), MD (23.0-85.3%), KGE (21.1-78.1%), and VE (5.1-9.1%), with closer replication of empirical probability distribution function (PDF) curves during the validation period. In the future, Borneo's climate zones will shift notably, with WC elongating southward along the mountainous spine, W forming an enclave over the north-central mountains, WH shifting northward and shrinking inland, and DH expanding northward along the western coast. Under SSP5-8.5, WC is expected to expand by 39% and 11% for the mid- and far-future periods, respectively, while W is set to shrink by 46%. WH is projected to expand by 2% and 8% for the mid- and far-future periods, respectively. Conversely, DH is expected to expand by 43% for the far-future period but shrink by 42% for the mid-future period. This study fills a gap by redefining Borneo's climate zones based on an increased number of effective parameters and projecting future shifts, utilizing advanced clustering methods (FCM) under CMIP6 scenarios. Importantly, it contributes by ranking GCMs using RIMs and CPI across multiple climate parameters, addressing a previous gap in GCM assessment. The study's findings can facilitate cross-border collaboration by providing a shared understanding of climate dynamics and informing joint environmental management and disaster response efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zulfaqar Sa'adi
- Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
| | - Mohammad Saleh Al-Suwaiyan
- Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia; Interdisciplinary Research Center for Construction and Building Materials, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Zaher Mundher Yaseen
- Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Mou Leong Tan
- Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800, Penang, Malaysia.
| | - Leonardo Goliatt
- Computational Modeling Program, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, MG, Brazil.
| | - Salim Heddam
- Faculty of Science, Agronomy Department, Hydraulics Division University, 20 Août 1955, Route El Hadaik, BP 26, Skikda, Algeria.
| | - Bijay Halder
- Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, 43600, Selangor, Malaysia.
| | - Iman Ahmadianfar
- Department of Civil Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran.
| | - Raad Z Homod
- Department of Oil and Gas Engineering, Basrah University for Oil and Gas, Iraq.
| | - Shafik S Shafik
- Experimental Nuclear Radiation Research Group, Scientific Research Center, Al-Ayen University, Thi-Qar, 64001, Iraq.
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Yu W, Yang J, Sun D, Xue B, Sun W, Ren J, Yu H, Xiao X, Xia J, Li X. Shared insights for heat health risk adaptation in metropolitan areas of developing countries. iScience 2024; 27:109728. [PMID: 38706855 PMCID: PMC11068638 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Revised: 03/02/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Global warming has led to a surge in heat health risks (HHRs), the impacts of which are particularly pronounced in metropolitan areas of developing countries. In the current study, six metropolitan areas - Beijing, China; Cairo, Egypt; Jakarta, Indonesia; Mumbai, India; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and Tehran, Iran - were selected as the study area to further differentiate the built-up landscapes by utilizing the concept of local climate zones. Moreover, we assessed the similarities and differences in HHR associated with the landscape. Results revealed a 30.67% higher HHR in compact built-up landscapes than in the open built-up type. Urban green spaces played an effective but differentiated role in mitigating HHR. That is, low vegetation in urbanized areas and trees in suburban areas significantly mitigated HHR. Collectively, our findings emphasize the role of effective planning and management in addressing HHR and provide empirical support for implementing HHR mitigation and adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenbo Yu
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
- Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
| | - Jun Yang
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
- Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
- Jangho Architecture College, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
| | - Dongqi Sun
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciencess, Beijing 110016, China
| | - Bing Xue
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
| | - Wei Sun
- Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
| | - Jiayi Ren
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
| | - Huisheng Yu
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
| | - Xiangming Xiao
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Earth Observation and Modeling, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA
| | - Jianhong(Cecilia) Xia
- School of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS), Curtin University, Perth, WA 65630, Australia
| | - Xueming Li
- Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
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Liu S, Smith-Greenaway E. Racial and ethnic minorities disproportionately exposed to extreme daily temperature variation in the United States. PNAS NEXUS 2024; 3:pgae176. [PMID: 38774391 PMCID: PMC11107375 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 04/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/24/2024]
Abstract
In the history of Homo sapiens, well-populated habitats have featured relatively stable temperatures with generally small daily variations. As the global population is increasingly residing in highly disparate climates, a burgeoning literature has documented the adverse health effects of single-day and day-to-day variation in temperature, raising questions of inequality in exposure to this environmental health risk. Yet, we continue to lack understanding of inequality in exposure to daily temperature variation (DTV) in the highly unequal United States. Using nighttime and daytime land surface temperature data between 2000 and 2017, this study analyzes population exposure to long-term DTV by race and ethnicity, income, and age for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The analysis is based on population-weighted exposure at the census-tract level. We find that, on average, non-White (especially Black and Hispanic) and low-income Americans are exposed disproportionately to larger DTV. Race-based inequalities in exposure to DTV are larger than income-based disparities, with inequalities heightened in the summer months. In May, for example, the DTV difference by race and ethnicity of 51 states is between 0.20 and 3.01 °C (up to 21.0%). We find that younger populations are, on average, exposed to larger DTV, though the difference is marginal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shengjie Liu
- Spatial Sciences Institute, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Emily Smith-Greenaway
- Department of Sociology, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
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Achebak H, Rey G, Chen ZY, Lloyd SJ, Quijal-Zamorano M, Méndez-Turrubiates RF, Ballester J. Heat Exposure and Cause-Specific Hospital Admissions in Spain: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2024; 132:57009. [PMID: 38775486 PMCID: PMC11110655 DOI: 10.1289/ehp13254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2023] [Revised: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND More frequent and intense exposure to extreme heat conditions poses a serious threat to public health. However, evidence on the association between heat and specific diagnoses of morbidity is still limited. We aimed to comprehensively assess the short-term association between cause-specific hospital admissions and high temperature, including the added effect of temperature variability and heat waves and the effect modification by humidity and air pollution. METHODS We used data on cause-specific hospital admissions, weather (i.e., temperature and relative humidity), and air pollution [i.e., fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μ m (PM 2.5 ), fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μ m (PM 10 ), NO 2 , and ozone (O 3 )] for 48 provinces in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2019. The statistical analysis was performed for the summer season (June-September) and consisted of two steps. We first applied quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression models in combination with distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to estimate province-specific temperature-morbidity associations, which were then pooled through multilevel univariate/multivariate random-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS High temperature had a generalized impact on cause-specific hospitalizations, while the added effect of temperature variability [i.e., diurnal temperature range (DTR)] and heat waves was limited to a reduced number of diagnoses. The strongest impact of heat was observed for metabolic disorders and obesity [relative risk (RR) = 1.978; 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 1.772, 2.208], followed by renal failure (1.777; 95% eCI: 1.629, 1.939), urinary tract infection (1.746; 95% eCI: 1.578, 1.933), sepsis (1.543; 95% eCI: 1.387, 1.718), urolithiasis (1.490; 95% eCI: 1.338, 1.658), and poisoning by drugs and nonmedicinal substances (1.470; 95% eCI: 1.298, 1.665). We also found differences by sex (depending on the diagnosis of hospitalization) and age (very young children and the elderly were more at risk). Humidity played a role in the association of heat with hospitalizations from acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis and diseases of the muscular system and connective tissue, which were higher in dry days. Moreover, heat-related effects were exacerbated on high pollution days for metabolic disorders and obesity (PM 2.5 ) and diabetes (PM 10 , O 3 ). DISCUSSION Short-term exposure to heat was found to be associated with new diagnoses (e.g., metabolic diseases and obesity, blood diseases, acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis, muscular and connective tissue diseases, poisoning by drugs and nonmedicinal substances, complications of surgical and medical care, and symptoms, signs, and ill-defined conditions) and previously identified diagnoses of hospital admissions. The characterization of the vulnerability to heat can help improve clinical and public health practices to reduce the health risks posed by a warming planet. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13254.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hicham Achebak
- Inserm, France Cohortes, Paris, France
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
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10
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Terada S, Nishimura H, Miyasaka N, Fujiwara T. Ambient temperature and preterm birth: A case-crossover study. BJOG 2024; 131:632-640. [PMID: 37984435 DOI: 10.1111/1471-0528.17720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 10/25/2023] [Accepted: 10/29/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between ambient temperature and preterm birth (PTB) and to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of PTBs due to low and high temperatures. DESIGN Time-stratified case-crossover design. SETTING Japan (46 prefectures, excluding Okinawa), 2011-2020. SAMPLE 214 050 PTBs registered in the Japan Perinatal Registry Network database among 1 908 168 singleton live births. METHODS A quasi-Poisson regression model with a distributed lag nonlinear model was employed to assess the associations between daily mean temperature and PTBs for a lag of 0-27 days in each prefecture. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted by combining effect estimates from the 46 prefectures to estimate pooled relative risks (RRs). The PAFs of the PTBs due to below or above the mean of the 46 median temperatures (16.0°C) were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Preterm singleton live births. RESULTS The association between daily mean temperature and PTB risk exhibited a U-shaped curve. The adjusted RRs were 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.25) at the mean of the 1st percentiles (0.8°C) and 1.08 (95% CI 1.00-1.17) at the mean of the 99th percentiles (30.2°C) of 46 prefectures, with 16.0°C as the reference temperature. Approximately 2.3% (95% CI 0.6-4.0) of PTBs were attributable to low temperatures. CONCLUSIONS Both low and possibly high temperatures were associated with an increased risk of PTBs. These findings may help to inform preventive measures for pregnant women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuhei Terada
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hisaaki Nishimura
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Naoyuki Miyasaka
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takeo Fujiwara
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
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Ma Y, He Y, Tang D, Cai G, Fan D, Cao Y, Pan F. Association between diurnal temperature range and sperm quality: Evidence from a prospective cohort in Central China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 913:169761. [PMID: 38171276 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2023] [Revised: 12/23/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
Inter-day temperature variability has been reported to be associated with sperm quality in a city-level exposure assessment study. However, studies exploring the impact of temperature variability within a single day on sperm quality at individual level are still lacking. The present study aims to bridge this research gap by analyzing the linear and non-linear associations between diurnal temperature range (DTR) exposure and sperm quality, utilizing data from the Anhui Prospective Assisted Reproduction Cohort. The study included 15,112 males (totaling 28,267 tests) and assessed individual exposure to various environmental factors (residential greenness, ambient particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, relative humidity, ambient temperature, and DTR) during the 0-90 day period before semen analysis. A combination of a linear mixed model, natural cubic splines, and subgroup analysis was employed. Significant "U"-shaped non-linear associations were observed between DTR exposure and total motility, sperm concentration, sperm count, total motile sperm count, and progressive motile sperm count. Lower DTR levels negatively impacted these parameters, whereas higher DTR levels showed a positive effect. Notably, these associations were more pronounced at ambient temperatures below 16.5 °C, while absent in warmer conditions. Sperm quality demonstrates increased sensitivity to DTR exposure in cooler environments. Therefore, implementing effective individual temperature management strategies is crucial for mitigating decreased sperm quality associated with DTR exposure, highlighting the potential benefits of government policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality to enhance overall sperm quality in the general population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yubo Ma
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, China; The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, 81 Meishan Road, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Ye He
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China; Reproductive Medicine Center, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Dongdong Tang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China; Reproductive Medicine Center, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Guoqi Cai
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, China; The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, 81 Meishan Road, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Dazhi Fan
- Foshan Institute of Fetal Medicine, Southern Medical University Affiliated Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Foshan, Foshan, Guangdong, China
| | - Yunxia Cao
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China; Reproductive Medicine Center, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
| | - Faming Pan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, China; The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, 81 Meishan Road, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China.
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Boudreault J, Campagna C, Chebana F. Revisiting the importance of temperature, weather and air pollution variables in heat-mortality relationships with machine learning. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2024; 31:14059-14070. [PMID: 38270762 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-31969-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 01/07/2024] [Indexed: 01/26/2024]
Abstract
Extreme heat events have significant health impacts that need to be adequately quantified in the context of climate change. Traditionally, heat-health association methods have relied on statistical models using a single air temperature index, without considering other heat-related variables that may influence the relationship and their potentially complex interactions. This study aims to introduce and compare different machine learning (ML) models, which naturally consider interactions between predictors and non-linearities, to re-examine the importance of temperature, weather and air pollution predictors in modeling the heat-mortality relationship. ML approaches based on tree ensembles and neural networks, as well as non-linear statistical models, were used to model the heat-mortality relationship in the two most populated metropolitan areas of the province of Quebec, Canada. The models were calibrated using a comprehensive database of heat-related predictors including various lagged temperature indices, temperature variations, meteorological and air pollution variables. Performance was evaluated based on out-of-sample summer mortality predictions. For the two studied regions, models relying only on lagged temperature indices performed better, or equally well, than models considering more heat-related predictors such as temperature variations, weather and air pollution variables. The temperature index with the best performance differed by region, but both mean temperature and humidex were among the best indices. In terms of modeling approaches, non-linear statistical models were as competent as more advanced ML models for predicting out-of-sample summer mortality. This research validated the current use of non-linear statistical models with the appropriate lagged temperature index to model the heat-mortality relationship. Although ML models have not improved the performance of all-cause mortality modeling, these approaches should continue to be explored, particularly for other health effects that may be more directly linked to heat exposure and, in the future, when more data become available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jérémie Boudreault
- Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), 490 de La Couronne, Quebec, QC, G1K 9A9, Canada.
- Direction de la santé environnementale, au travail et de la toxicologie, Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), 945 Avenue Wolfe, Quebec, QC, G1V 5B3, Canada.
| | - Céline Campagna
- Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), 490 de La Couronne, Quebec, QC, G1K 9A9, Canada
- Direction de la santé environnementale, au travail et de la toxicologie, Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), 945 Avenue Wolfe, Quebec, QC, G1V 5B3, Canada
| | - Fateh Chebana
- Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), 490 de La Couronne, Quebec, QC, G1K 9A9, Canada
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Yan X, Li J, Wu J, Lin S, Wang Z, Pei L, Zheng C, Wang X, Cao X, Hu Z, Tian Y. Association between short-term daily temperature variability and blood pressure in the Chinese population: From the China hypertension survey. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 184:108463. [PMID: 38324925 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Revised: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 01/28/2024] [Indexed: 02/09/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to evaluate the impacts of short-term daily temperature variability (DTV) on blood pressure (BP) among participants with normotension, prehypertension, and hypertension, respectively, and explore the effects in different climate zones and seasons. METHODS A representative population sample (n = 397,173) covering the subtropical, temperate continental, and temperate monsoon zones was obtained from the China Hypertension Survey. DTV was calculated as the standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. The linear mixed effect regression model was used to estimate the associations between DTV exposure and BP among normotension, prehypertension, and hypertension, respectively, and further stratified analysis was performed by climate zones and seasons. RESULTS After adjustment for confounders, per interquartile range (IQR) increase in DTV (2.28 °C) at 0-6 days of exposure was associated with an increase of 0.41 mmHg (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.07, 0.75) in systolic BP (SBP) and 0.41 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.09, 0.72) in pulse pressure (PP) among hypertensive participants in the subtropical zone. Similarly, DTV exposure was associated with an increase of 0.31 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.06, 0.55) in SBP and 0.59 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.24, 0.94) in PP among prehypertensive participants in the temperate continental zone. Additionally, during the warm season, DTV was positively associated with SBP among populations with prehypertension and hypertension, and with PP among all three populations. CONCLUSION Short-term DTV exposure was associated with an increase in SBP and PP among hypertensive and prehypertensive participants in the subtropical zone and the temperate continental zone. In addition, positive associations of DTV with SBP and PP were observed among participants with prehypertension and hypertension in the warm season. Comprehensive health education and effective intervention strategies should be implemented to mitigate the effects of temperature variations on BP, particularly among prehypertensive and hypertensive populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaojin Yan
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Jiajia Li
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Jilei Wu
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Shiqi Lin
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Zengwu Wang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China.
| | - Lijun Pei
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
| | - Congyi Zheng
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Xin Wang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Xue Cao
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Zhen Hu
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Yixin Tian
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
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Liang C, Yuan J, Tang X, Kan H, Cai W, Chen J. The influence of humid heat on morbidity of megacity Shanghai in China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 183:108424. [PMID: 38219539 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2023] [Revised: 12/12/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 01/16/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Increased attention has been paid to humid-heat extremes as they are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. However, it remains unclear how compound extremes of heat and humidity affects morbidity when the climate is projected to continue warming in the future, in particular for a megacity with a large population. METHODS We chose the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index as the metric to characterize the humid-heat exposure. The historical associations between daily outpatient visits and daily mean WBGT was established using a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) during the warm season (June to September) from 2013 to 2015 in Shanghai, a prominent megacity of China. Future morbidity burden related to the combined effect of high temperature and humidity were projected under four greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585). RESULTS The humid-heat weather was significantly associated with a higher risk of outpatient visits in Shanghai than the high-temperature conditions. Relative to the baseline period (2010-2019), the morbidity burden due to humid-heat weather was projected to increase 4.4 % (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.1 %-10.1 %) even under the strict emission control scenario (SSP126) by 2100. Under the high-GHGs emission scenario (SSP585), this burden was projected to be 25.4 % (95 % CI: 15.8 %-38.4 %), which is 10.1 % (95 % CI: 6.5 %-15.8 %) more than that due to high-temperature weather. Our results also indicate that humid-hot nights could cause large morbidity risks under high-GHGs emission scenarios particularly in heat-sensible diseases such as the respiratory and cardiovascular disease by the end of this century. CONCLUSIONS Humid heat exposures significantly increased the all-cause morbidity risk in the megacity Shanghai, especially in humid-hot nights. Our findings suggest that the combined effect of elevated temperature and humidity is projected to have more substantial impact on health compared to high temperature alone in a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen Liang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Jiacan Yuan
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China.
| | - Xu Tang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Jianmin Chen
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
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Amoatey P, Osborne NJ, Darssan D, Xu Z, Doan QV, Phung D. The effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality and emergency department presentations in Victoria state of Australia: A time-series analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 240:117397. [PMID: 37879389 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117397] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2023] [Revised: 07/30/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/27/2023]
Abstract
State of Victoria, Australia (SVA) has a wide variation of diurnal temperatures (DTR). DTR has been reported to be associated with risk of mortality and morbidity. We examined the association between exposure to DTR and risk of all-cause mortality and emergency department (ED) presentations in the SVA. We obtained data on daily counts of deaths and ED presentations, and weather data from 1 st January 2000─2019. We applied a quasi-Poisson time-series regression analysis to examine the association between daily DTR exposures and risk of mortality and ED presentations. The analyses were queried by age, sex, seasons, ED presentations triages, and departure status. Risk of mortality and ED presentation increased by 0.33% (95% CI: 0.24%-0.43%), and 0.094% (95% CI: 0.077%-0.11%) in relation to one degree increase in the daily DTR. The association between DTR and ED presentations was stronger in children (0-15 years) (0.38% [95% CI: 0.34%-0.42%]) and the elderly (75+ years) (0.34% [95% CI: 0.29%-0.39%]). Resuscitation, which was consistently accounted for the highest vulnerability to DTR variation, increased by 0.79% (95% CI: 0.60%-0.99%). This study suggests that the risk of mortality and ED presentations associates with the increase of DTR. Children, the elderly, and their caregivers need to be made aware of the health risk posed by DTR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Amoatey
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Australia
| | - Nicholas J Osborne
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Australia; School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; European Centre for Environment and Human Health (ECEHH), University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro TR1 3HD, Cornwall, UK; Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, The University of Queensland, Australia
| | - Darsy Darssan
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Australia
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Australia
| | - Quang-Van Doan
- Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Dung Phung
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Australia; Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, The University of Queensland, Australia.
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Wu X, Weinberger KR, Wellenius GA, Dominici F, Braun D. Assessing the causal effects of a stochastic intervention in time series data: are heat alerts effective in preventing deaths and hospitalizations? Biostatistics 2023; 25:57-79. [PMID: 36815555 PMCID: PMC11032723 DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxad002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 01/07/2023] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The methodological development of this article is motivated by the need to address the following scientific question: does the issuance of heat alerts prevent adverse health effects? Our goal is to address this question within a causal inference framework in the context of time series data. A key challenge is that causal inference methods require the overlap assumption to hold: each unit (i.e., a day) must have a positive probability of receiving the treatment (i.e., issuing a heat alert on that day). In our motivating example, the overlap assumption is often violated: the probability of issuing a heat alert on a cooler day is near zero. To overcome this challenge, we propose a stochastic intervention for time series data which is implemented via an incremental time-varying propensity score (ItvPS). The ItvPS intervention is executed by multiplying the probability of issuing a heat alert on day $t$-conditional on past information up to day $t$-by an odds ratio $\delta_t$. First, we introduce a new class of causal estimands, which relies on the ItvPS intervention. We provide theoretical results to show that these causal estimands can be identified and estimated under a weaker version of the overlap assumption. Second, we propose nonparametric estimators based on the ItvPS and derive an upper bound for the variances of these estimators. Third, we extend this framework to multisite time series using a spatial meta-analysis approach. Fourth, we show that the proposed estimators perform well in terms of bias and root mean squared error via simulations. Finally, we apply our proposed approach to estimate the causal effects of increasing the probability of issuing heat alerts on each warm-season day in reducing deaths and hospitalizations among Medicare enrollees in 2837 US counties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Wu
- Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th St, New York, NY 10032, USA and Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Kate R Weinberger
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, 2206 E Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada
| | - Gregory A Wellenius
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Francesca Dominici
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Danielle Braun
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA and Department of Data Science, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, 450 Brookline Ave, Boston, MA 02215, USA
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Achebak H, Garcia-Aymerich J, Rey G, Chen Z, Méndez-Turrubiates RF, Ballester J. Ambient temperature and seasonal variation in inpatient mortality from respiratory diseases: a retrospective observational study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2023; 35:100757. [PMID: 38115961 PMCID: PMC10730325 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Revised: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/04/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
Background The seasonal fluctuation in mortality and hospital admissions from respiratory diseases, with a winter peak and a summer trough, is widely recognized in extratropical countries. However, little is known about the seasonality of inpatient mortality and the role of ambient temperature remains uncertain. We aimed to analyse the association between ambient temperature and in-hospital mortality from respiratory diseases in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona, Spain. Methods We used data on daily hospitalisations, weather (ie, temperature and relative humidity) and air pollutants (ie, PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3) for the Spanish provinces of Madrid and Barcelona during 2006-2019. We applied a daily time-series quasi-Poisson regression in combination with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to assess, on the one hand, the seasonal variation in fatal hospitalisations and the contribution of ambient temperature, and on the other hand, the day-to-day association between temperature and fatal hospital admissions. The analyses were stratified by sex, age and primary diagnostic of hospitalisation. Findings The study analysed 1 710 012 emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases (mean [SD] age, 60.4 [31.0] years; 44.2% women), from which 103 845 resulted in in-hospital death (81.4 [12.3] years; 45.1%). We found a strong seasonal fluctuation in in-hospital mortality from respiratory diseases. While hospital admissions were higher during the cold season, the maximum incidence of inpatient mortality was during the summer and was strongly related to high temperatures. When analysing the day-to-day association between temperature and in-hospital mortality, we only found an effect for high temperatures. The relative risk (RR) of fatal hospitalisation at the 99th percentile of the distribution of daily temperatures vs the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was 1.395 (95% eCI: 1.211-1.606) in Madrid and 1.612 (1.379-1.885) in Barcelona. In terms of attributable burden, summer temperatures (June-September) were responsible for 16.2% (8.8-23.3) and 22.3% (15.4-29.2) of overall fatal hospitalisations from respiratory diseases in Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. Women were more vulnerable to heat than men, whereas the results by diagnostic of admission showed heat effects for acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis, pneumonia and respiratory failure. Interpretation Unless effective adaptation measures are taken in hospital facilities, climate warming could exacerbate the burden of inpatient mortality from respiratory diseases during the warm season. Funding European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT, European Research Council Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hicham Achebak
- Inserm, France Cohortes, Paris, France
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Judith Garcia-Aymerich
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
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18
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Zhu Y, He C, Gasparrini A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Liu C, Bachwenkizi J, Zhou L, Cheng Y, Kan L, Chen R, Kan H. Global warming may significantly increase childhood anemia burden in sub-Saharan Africa. ONE EARTH (CAMBRIDGE, MASS.) 2023; 6:1388-1399. [PMID: 37904727 PMCID: PMC7615260 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2023]
Abstract
Childhood anemia constitutes a global public health problem, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it remains unknown whether global warming has an impact on childhood anemia. Here, we examined the association between annual temperatures and childhood anemia prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and then projected childhood anemia burden attributable to climate change. Each 1°C increment in annual temperature was associated with increased odds of childhood anemia (odd ratio = 1.138, 95% confidence interval: 1.134-1.142). Compared with the baseline period (1985-2014), the attributable childhood anemia cases would increase by 7,597 per 100,000 person-years under a high-emission scenario in the 2090s, which would be almost 2-fold and over 3-fold more than those projected in moderate- and low-emission scenarios. Our results reveal the vulnerabilities and inequalities of children for the excess burden of anemia due to climate warming and highlight the importance of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in LMICs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yixiang Zhu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
- Helmholtz Zentrum Mu€nchen - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Institute of Epidemiology, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Cong Liu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Jovine Bachwenkizi
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Lu Zhou
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yuexin Cheng
- Department of Hematology, The First People’s Hospital of Yancheng, Yancheng Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Yancheng, China
| | - Lena Kan
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
- Children’s Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children’s Health, Shanghai, China
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19
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Liu J, Du X, Yin P, Kan H, Zhou M, Chen R. Cause-specific mortality and burden attributable to temperature variability in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 896:165267. [PMID: 37406687 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2023] [Revised: 06/23/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Few large-scale, nationwide studies have assessed cause-specific mortality risks and burdens associated with temperature variability (TV). OBJECTIVE To estimate associations between TV and cause-specific mortality and quantify the mortality burden in China. METHODS Data on daily total and cause-specific mortality in 272 Chinese cities between 2013 and 2015 were recorded. TVs were computed as the standard deviations of daily minimum and maximum temperatures over a duration of 2 to 7 days. The time-series quasi-Poisson regression model with adjustment of the cumulative effects of daily mean temperature over the same duration was applied to evaluate the city-specific associations of TV and mortality. Then, we pooled the effect estimates using a random-effects meta-analysis and calculated the mortality burdens. RESULTS Overall, TV showed significant and positive associations with total and cause-specific mortality. The TV-mortality associations were generally stronger when using longer durations. A 1 °C increase in TV at 0-7 days (TV0-7) was associated with a 0.79 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.55 %, 0.96 %] increase in total mortality. Mortality fractions attributable to TV0-7 were 4.37 % for total causes, 4.75 % for overall cardiovascular disease, 4.37 % for coronary heart disease, 5.05 % for stroke, 8.28 % for ischaemic stroke, 1.08 % for haemorrhagic stroke, 6.93 % for respiratory disease, and 6.81 % for COPD, respectively. The mortality risk and burden were generally higher in the temperate monsoon zone, females, and elders. CONCLUSION This nationwide study indicated that TV was an independent risk factor of mortality, and could result in significant burden for main cardiorespiratory diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangmei Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xihao Du
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and National Health Commission (NHC) Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and National Health Commission (NHC) Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and National Health Commission (NHC) Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, China.
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20
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de Schrijver E, Sivaraj S, Raible CC, Franco OH, Chen K, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS : ERL [WEB SITE] 2023; 18:094010. [PMID: 38854588 PMCID: PMC7616072 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace7e1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
Climate change and progressive population development (i.e., ageing and changes in population size) are altering the temporal patterns of temperature-related mortality in Switzerland. However, limited evidence exists on how current trends in heat- and cold-related mortality would evolve in future decades under composite scenarios of global warming and population development. Moreover, the contribution of these drivers to future mortality impacts is not well-understood. Therefore, we aimed to project heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland under various combinations of emission and population development scenarios and to disentangle the contribution of each of these two drivers using high-resolution mortality and temperature data. We combined age-specific (<75 and ⩾75 years) temperature-mortality associations in each district in Switzerland (1990-2010), estimated through a two-stage time series analysis, with 2 km downscaled CMIP5 temperature data and population and mortality rate projections under two scenarios: RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. We derived heat and cold-related mortality for different warming targets (1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C) using different emission and population development scenarios and compared this to the baseline period (1990-2010). Heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 312 (116; 510) in the 1990-2010 period to 1274 (537; 2284) annual deaths under 2.0 °C of warming (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 1871 (791; 3284) under 3.0 °C of warming (RCP8.5/SSP5). Cold-related mortality will substantially increase from 4069 (1898; 6016) to 6558 (3223; 9589) annual deaths under 2.0 °C (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 5997 (2951; 8759) under 3.0 °C (RCP8.5/SSP5). Moreover, while the increase in cold-related mortality is solely driven by population development, for heat, both components (i.e., changes in climate and population) have a similar contribution of around 50% to the projected heat-related mortality trends. In conclusion, our findings suggest that both heat- and cold-related mortality will substantially increase under all scenarios of climate change and population development in Switzerland. Population development will lead to an increase in cold-related mortality despite the decrease in cold temperature under warmer scenarios. Whereas the combination of the progressive warming of the climate and population development will substantially increase and exacerbate the total temperature-related mortality burden in Switzerland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate School of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Sidharth Sivaraj
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Christoph C Raible
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Oscar H Franco
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University of Utrecht Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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21
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Healy JP, Danesh Yazdi M, Wei Y, Qiu X, Shtein A, Dominici F, Shi L, Schwartz JD. Seasonal Temperature Variability and Mortality in the Medicare Population. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:77002. [PMID: 37404028 PMCID: PMC10321237 DOI: 10.1289/ehp11588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2022] [Revised: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Seasonal temperature variability remains understudied and may be modified by climate change. Most temperature-mortality studies examine short-term exposures using time-series data. These studies are limited by regional adaptation, short-term mortality displacement, and an inability to observe longer-term relationships in temperature and mortality. Seasonal temperature and cohort analyses allow the long-term effects of regional climatic change on mortality to be analyzed. OBJECTIVES We aimed to carry out one of the first investigations of seasonal temperature variability and mortality across the contiguous United States. We also investigated factors that modify this association. Using adapted quasi-experimental methods, we hoped to account for unobserved confounding and to investigate regional adaptation and acclimatization at the ZIP code level. METHODS We examined the mean and standard deviation (SD) of daily temperature in the warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) season in the Medicare cohort from 2000 to 2016. This cohort comprised 622,427,230 y of person-time in all adults over the age of 65 y from 2000 to 2016. We used daily mean temperature obtained from gridMET to develop yearly seasonal temperature variables for each ZIP code. We used an adapted difference-in-difference approach model with a three-tiered clustering approach and meta-analysis to observe the relationship between temperature variability and mortality within ZIP codes. Effect modification was assessed with stratified analyses by race and population density. RESULTS For every 1°C increase in the SD of warm and cold season temperature, the mortality rate increased by 1.54% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73%, 2.15%] and 0.69% (95% CI: 0.22%, 1.15%) respectively. We did not see significant effects for seasonal mean temperatures. Participants who were classified by Medicare into an "other" race group had smaller effects than those classified as White for Cold and Cold SD and areas with lower population density had larger effects for Warm SD. DISCUSSION Warm and cold season temperature variability were significantly associated with increased mortality rates in U.S. individuals over the age of 65 y, even after controlling for seasonal temperature averages. Warm and cold season mean temperatures showed null effects on mortality. Cold SD had a larger effect size for those who were in the racial subgroup other, whereas Warm SD was more harmful for those living in lower population density areas. This study adds to the growing calls for urgent climate mitigation and environmental health adaptation and resiliency. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11588.
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Affiliation(s)
- James P. Healy
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Mahdieh Danesh Yazdi
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Yaguang Wei
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Xinye Qiu
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Alexandra Shtein
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Francesca Dominici
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Joel D. Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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22
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Wen B, Wu Y, Guo Y, Li S. A new method to separate the impacts of interday and intraday temperature variability on mortality. BMC Med Res Methodol 2023; 23:92. [PMID: 37061686 PMCID: PMC10105159 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-023-01914-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 04/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risks. However, the independent impacts of interday and intraday are still unknown. METHODS We proposed a new method to decompose TV into interday TV and intraday TV through algebra derivation. Intraday TV was defined as the weighted average standard deviation (SD) of minimum temperature and maximum temperature on each day. Interday TV was defined as the weighted SD of daily mean temperatures during the exposure period. We then performed an illustrative analysis using data on daily mortality and temperature in France in 2019-2021. RESULTS The novel interday and intraday TV indices were good proxies for existing indicators, inlcluding diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN). In the illustrative analyses, interday and intraday TVs showed differentiated mortality risks. Mortality burden related to TV was mainly explained by the intraday component, accounting for an attributable fraction (AF) of 1.81% (95% CI: 0.64%, 2.97%) of total mortality, more than twice the AF of interday TV (0.86%, 95% CI: 0.47%, 1.24%). CONCLUSIONS This study proposed a novel method for identifying and isolating the different components of temperature variability and offered a comprehensive way to investigate their health impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Wen
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Yao Wu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
| | - Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
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23
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Savić S, Arsenović D, Lužanin Z, Milošević D, Dunjić J, Šećerov I, Kojić M, Radić I, Harhaji S, Arsić M. Hospital admission tendencies caused by day-to-day temperature changes during summer: a case study for the city of Novi Sad (Serbia). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:695-704. [PMID: 36881173 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02447-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Increased temperature risk in cities threatens the health and well-being of urban population and is fueled by climate change and intensive urbanization. Consequently, further steps must be taken for assessing temperature conditions in cities and their association with public health, in order to improve public health prevention at local or regional level. This study contributes to solving the problems by analyzing the connection between extreme temperatures and the tendencies of all-cause hospital admissions. The analyses used (a) 1-h air temperature data, and (b) daily data of all-cause hospital admissions. The datasets include the summer period (June, July, August) for the years 2016 and 2017. We tested the effects of two temperature indices, day-to-day change in maximum temperature - Tmax,c and daily temperature range - Tr, with all-cause hospital admission subgroups, such as all-cause cases - Ha, hospital admissions in the population below 65 - Ha<65, and hospital admissions in the population aged 65 and over - Ha≥65. The results show the highest values of Ha when Tmax,c is between 6 and 10 °C. Therefore, more intensive hospital admissions can be expected when Tmax increases from day-to-day (positive values of Tmax,c), and it is more visible for Ha and Ha<65 (1 °C = 1% increase in hospital admissions). Also, Tr values between 10 °C and 14 °C cause an increase in the number of hospital admissions, and it is more noticeable for Ha≥65.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stevan Savić
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.
| | - Daniela Arsenović
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Zorana Lužanin
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Dragan Milošević
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Jelena Dunjić
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Ivan Šećerov
- Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Milena Kojić
- Institute of Economic Sciences, Zmaj Jovina 12, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia
| | - Ivana Radić
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Hajduk Veljkova 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Futoška 121, Novi Sad, 21102, Serbia
| | - Sanja Harhaji
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Hajduk Veljkova 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Futoška 121, Novi Sad, 21102, Serbia
| | - Miodrag Arsić
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Futoška 121, Novi Sad, 21102, Serbia
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Qi J, Chen L, Yin P, Zhou M, Peng S, Liu G, Wang L, Noman M, Xie Y, Dong Z, Guo Y. Projecting the excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range: A nationwide analysis in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 864:160971. [PMID: 36535487 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 11/24/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The projection of excess mortality due to diurnal temperature range (DTR) in future has not been evaluated yet in China. Based on daily cause-specific mortality data from 266 cities in China, this study aimed to examine the association between DTR and mortality, which help project the future mortality burden attributable to DTR by considering the modification effects of altitude and population migration. We first found that every 10 °C increase in the DTR would result in a 3.3 % (95 % confidence interval: 2.6 %-4.1 %) excess risk of non-accidental mortality. The unit risk of DTR-associated cause-specific mortality at moderate or high altitudes was significantly lower than at lower altitudes, especially for cardiovascular disease. Subsequently, DTR-associated excess mortality in 2017 in China was 233,154 deaths (with a population-weighted attributable fraction of 2.9 %). Furthermore, we projected DTR-attributable additional mortality in the future, with the associated mortalities to be 221,860 deaths in 2050-2059 (2050s) and 132,305 deaths in 2090-2099 (2090s), under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Meanwhile, the regional inequalities were exacerbated by 18 % in 2050s and 13 % in 2090s when considering the modification effects of city altitude. Future population migration would increase excess mortality in most areas in central and southern China, and reduce the disease burden in most areas in eastern, western, and northern China. Our findings underpinned that regional strategies should be adopted to mitigate excess mortality attributable to global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinlei Qi
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Lili Chen
- Beijing Academy of Blockchain and Edge Computing, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Shushi Peng
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, China
| | - Gang Liu
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, China
| | - Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Muhammad Noman
- School of Space and Environment, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Xie
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China; Laboratory for Low-carbon Intelligent Governance, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
| | - Zhaomin Dong
- School of Space and Environment, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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25
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Sankalp S, Sahoo BB, Sahoo SN. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of deep learning models for diurnal temperature range (DTR) forecasting over five Indian cities. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:291. [PMID: 36633692 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-10844-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 12/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
In this article, the maximum and minimum daily temperature data for Indian cities were tested, together with the predicted diurnal temperature range (DTR) for monthly time horizons. RClimDex, a user interface for extreme computing indices, was used to advance the estimation because it allowed for statistical analysis and comparison of climatological elements such time series, means, extremes, and trends. During these 69 years, a more erratic DTR trend was seen in the research area. This study investigates the suitability of three deep neural networks for one-step-ahead DTR time series (DTRTS) forecasting, including recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and auto-regressive integrated moving average exogenous (ARIMAX). To evaluate the effectiveness of models in the testing set, six statistical error indicators, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of correlation (R), percent bias (PBIAS), modified index of agreement (md), and relative index of agreement (rd), were chosen. The Wilson score approach was used to do a quantitative uncertainty analysis on the prediction error to forecast the outcome DTR. The findings show that the LSTM outperforms the other models in terms of its capacity to forget, remember, and update information. It is more accurate on datasets with longer sequences and displays noticeably more volatility throughout its gradient descent. The results of a sensitivity analysis on the LSTM model, which used RMSE values as an output and took into account different look-back periods, showed that the amount of history used to fit a time series forecast model had a direct impact on the model's performance. As a result, this model can be applied as a fresh, trustworthy deep learning method for DTRTS forecasting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sovan Sankalp
- Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Rourkela, Rourkela (Odisha), India.
| | - Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Centurion University of Technology and Management, R.Sitapur, Odisha, India
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Yu L, Zhou T, Shao M, Zhang T, Wang J, Ma Y, Xu S, Chen Y, Zhu J, Pan F. The role of meteorological factors in suicide mortality in Wuhu, a humid city along the Yangtze River in Eastern China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:9558-9575. [PMID: 36057060 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22832-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
As the climate continues to change, suicide is becoming more frequent. In this study, absolute humidity (AH) was included for the first time and Wuhu, a typical subtropical city along the Yangtze River, was taken as the research object to explore the impact of suicide death risk on meteorological factors. The daily meteorological factors and suicide mortality data of Wuhu city from 2014 to 2020 were collected. Guided by structural equation model (SEM), a time series analysis method combining distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and generalized additive model (GAM) was adopted. To investigate the correlation among different populations, we stratified age and gender at different meteorological levels. A total of 1259 suicide deaths were collected in Wuhu. The results indicated that exceedingly low and low levels of AH short-term exposure increased suicide mortality, with the maximum effect occurring at lag 14 for both levels of exposure, when the relative risk (RR) was 1.131 (95% CI: 1.030, 1.242) and 1.065 (95% CI: 1.006, 1.127), respectively. Exposure to exceedingly high and exceedingly low levels of temperature mean (T mean) also increased suicide mortality, with maximum RR values of 1.132 (lag 14, 95% CI: 1.015, 1.263) and 1.203 (lag 0, 95% CI: 1.079, 1.340), sequentially. As for diurnal temperature range (DTR), low-level exposure decreased the risk of suicide, while high-level exposure increased this risk, with RR values of 0.955 (lag 0, 95% CI: 0.920, 0.991, minimum) and 1.060 (lag 0, 95% CI: 1.018, 1.104, maximum), sequentially. Stratified analysis showed that AH and DTR increased the suicide death risk in male and elderly people, while the risk effect of T mean have no effect on young people only. In summary, male and elderly people appear to be more vulnerable to adverse weather effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lingxiang Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Tingting Zhou
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Ming Shao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Jinian Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Yubo Ma
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Shanshan Xu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Yuting Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China
| | - Jiansheng Zhu
- Wuhu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhu, Anhui Province, China
| | - Faming Pan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China.
- The Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, China.
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Dawson LP, Andrew E, Nehme Z, Bloom J, Cox S, Anderson D, Stephenson M, Lefkovits J, Taylor AJ, Kaye D, Guo Y, Smith K, Stub D. Temperature-related chest pain presentations and future projections with climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 848:157716. [PMID: 35914598 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change has led to increased interest in studying adverse health effects relating to ambient temperatures. It is unclear whether incident chest pain is associated with non-optimal temperatures and how chest pain presentation rates might be affected by climate change. METHODS The study included ambulance data of chest pain presentations in Melbourne, Australia from 1/1/2015 to 30/6/2019 with linkage to hospital and emergency discharge diagnosis data. A time series quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model was fitted to assess the temperature-chest pain presentation associations overall and according to age, sex, socioeconomic status, and event location subgroups, with adjustment for season, day of the week and long-term trend. Future excess chest pain presentations associated with cold and heat were projected under six general circulation models under medium and high emission scenarios. RESULTS In 206,789 chest pain presentations, mean (SD) age was 61.2 (18.9) years and 50.3 % were female. Significant heat- and cold-related increased risk of chest pain presentations were observed for mean air temperatures above and below 20.8 °C, respectively. Excess chest pain presentations related to heat were observed in all subgroups, but appeared to be attenuated for older patients (≥70 years), patients of higher socioeconomic status (SES), and patients developing chest pain at home. We projected increases in heat-related chest pain presentations with climate change under both medium- and high-emission scenarios, which are offset by decreases in chest pain presentations related to cold temperatures. CONCLUSIONS Heat- and cold- exposure appear to increase the risk of chest pain presentations, especially among younger patients and patients of lower SES. This will have important implications with climate change modelling of chest pain, in particular highlighting the importance of risk mitigation strategies to minimise adverse health impacts on hotter days.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke P Dawson
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Cardiology, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emily Andrew
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ziad Nehme
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Paramedicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jason Bloom
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; The Baker Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shelley Cox
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Anderson
- Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michael Stephenson
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Paramedicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jeffrey Lefkovits
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Cardiology, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Andrew J Taylor
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Kaye
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; The Baker Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Karen Smith
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Paramedicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dion Stub
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; The Baker Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
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Kapwata T, Gebreslasie MT, Wright CY. An analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat-associated mortality threshold: towards a heat health warning system. Environ Health 2022; 21:112. [PMID: 36401226 PMCID: PMC9675182 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00921-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Heatwaves can have severe impacts on human health extending from illness to mortality. These health effects are related to not only the physical phenomenon of heat itself but other characteristics such as frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves. Therefore, understanding heatwave characteristics is a crucial step in the development of heat-health warning systems (HHWS) that could prevent or reduce negative heat-related health outcomes. However, there are no South African studies that have quantified heatwaves with a threshold that incorporated a temperature metric based on a health outcome. To fill this gap, this study aimed to assess the spatial and temporal distribution and frequency of past (2014 - 2019) and future (period 2020 - 2039) heatwaves across South Africa. Heatwaves were defined using a threshold for diurnal temperature range (DTR) that was found to have measurable impacts on mortality. In the current climate, inland provinces experienced fewer heatwaves of longer duration and greater intensity compared to coastal provinces that experienced heatwaves of lower intensity. The highest frequency of heatwaves occurred during the austral summer accounting for a total of 150 events out of 270 from 2014 to 2019. The heatwave definition applied in this study also identified severe heatwaves across the country during late 2015 to early 2016 which was during the strongest El Niño event ever recorded to date. Record-breaking global temperatures were reported during this period; the North West province in South Africa was the worst affected experiencing heatwaves ranging from 12 to 77 days. Future climate analysis showed increasing trends in heatwave events with the greatest increases (80%-87%) expected to occur during summer months. The number of heatwaves occurring in cooler seasons is expected to increase with more events projected from the winter months of July and August, onwards. The findings of this study show that the identification of provinces and towns that experience intense, long-lasting heatwaves is crucial to inform development and implementation of targeted heat-health adaptation strategies. These findings could also guide authorities to prioritise vulnerable population groups such as the elderly and children living in high-risk areas likely to be affected by heatwaves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thandi Kapwata
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, 2028, South Africa.
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa.
| | - Michael T Gebreslasie
- School of Agriculture, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 3629, South Africa
| | - Caradee Y Wright
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria, 0084, South Africa
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Wang Y, Ye D, Cheng Y, Liu Y, Li N, Wang Y, Bi P, Tong S, Li Y, Yao X. Seasonal variation in association between temperature change and emergency department visits: A multi-site study in China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 214:113963. [PMID: 35963321 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113963] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2021] [Revised: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 07/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is limited evidence of effects and seasonal variation of temperature change on emergency department visits (EDVs). OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between diurnal temperature range (DTR), temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) and a comprehensive collection of cause-specific EDVs in China. METHODS We collected EDVs, weather, and air pollution data in 20 sites in China from 2014 to 2018. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate DTR- and TCN-EDVs association. We used meta-analysis to pool site-specific estimates. We also conducted seasonal analysis and assess effects of modifiers. RESULTS A 1 °C increase of DTR and TCN was associated with 0.29% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.07%, 0.51%)] and 1.44% (95% CI: 0.93%, 1.96%) increase of total EDVs, respectively. People aged 18-44 were sensitive to DTR and TCN, while the elderly population was sensitive to TCN only in spring and autumn. In seasonal analysis, effects of temperature change on total EDVs were lower in summer. TCN increased risks of genitourinary diseases in summer, respiratory diseases in winter, injury in autumn, and mental diseases in spring. DTR increased the risk of respiratory diseases in autumn. CONCLUSION Exposure to DTR and TCN was associated with elevated risk of EDVs but with great seasonal variations. Our results provided potential time and target populations for adaptive strategies and preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Wang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Dianxiu Ye
- National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Yibin Cheng
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yue Liu
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Na Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Wang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Yonghong Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Xiaoyuan Yao
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Zhang Z, Xu D, Chen J, Meng Q, Liang Z, Zhang X. Daily diurnal temperature range associated with outpatient visits of acute lower respiratory infection in children: A time-series study in Guangzhou, China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:951590. [PMID: 36339182 PMCID: PMC9632279 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.951590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Diurnal temperature range (DTR) has been increasingly recognized as a risk factor for mortality and morbidity, but the association between DTR and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) outpatient visits has not been examined among children in China. Methods A total of 79,416 ALRI outpatient visits among children were obtained from the Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital between 2013 and 2019. DTR was calculated by taking the difference between the maximum and the minimum temperatures. Generalized additive models using a quasi-Poisson distribution were used to model the relationship between DTR and ALRI outpatient visits. Results Diurnal temperature range was significantly associated with elevated risks of ALRI outpatient visits: the excess risks (ERs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 2.31% (1.26, 3.36%) for ALRI, 3.19% (1.86, 4.54%) for pneumonia, and 1.79% (0.59, 3.01%) for bronchiolitis, respectively. Subgroup analyses suggested that the associations were significantly stronger during rainy seasons (ER for ALRI: 3.02%, 95% CI: 1.43, 4.64%) than those in dry seasons (ER for ALRI: 2.21%, 95% CI: 0.65, 3.81%), while no significant effect modifications were found in sex and age groups. Conclusion Diurnal temperature range may elevate the risk of ALRI outpatient visits among children in China, especially during rainy seasons. Public health policies are needed to mitigate the adverse health impacts of DTR on children.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Zhenyu Liang
- Department of Pediatrics, Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiao Zhang
- Department of Pediatrics, Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital, Guangzhou, China
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Park C, Yang J, Lee W, Kang C, Song IK, Kim H. Excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrests due to ambient temperatures in South Korea from 2008 to 2018. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113130. [PMID: 35339469 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2021] [Revised: 02/05/2022] [Accepted: 03/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a notable public health issue with negative outcomes, such as high mortality and aftereffects. Additionally, the adverse effects of extreme temperatures on health have become more important under climate change; however, few studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and OHCA. In this study, we examined the association between temperature and OHCA and its underlying risk factors. We conducted a two-stage time-series analysis using a Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and meta-analysis, based on a nationwide dataset from South Korea (2008-2018). We found that 17.4% of excess OHCA was attributed to cold, while 0.9% was attributed to heat. Based on central estimates, excess OHCA attributed to cold were more prominent in the population with hypertension comorbidity (31.0%) than the populations with diabetes (24.3%) and heart disease (17.4%). Excess OHCA attributed to heat were larger in the populations with diabetes (2.7%) and heart disease comorbidity (2.7%) than the population with hypertension (1.2%) based on central estimates. Furthermore, the time-varying excess OHCA attributed to cold have decreased over time, and although those of heat did not show a certain pattern during the study period, there was a weak increasing tendency since 2011. In conclusion, we found that OHCAs were associated with temperature, and cold temperatures showed a greater impact than that of hot temperatures. The effects of cold and hot temperatures on OHCA were more evident in the populations with hypertension, diabetes, and heart diseases, compared to the general population. In addition, the impacts of heat on OHCA increased in recent years, while those of cold temperatures decreased. Our results provide scientific evidence for policymakers to mitigate the OHCA burden attributed to temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaerin Park
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Juyeon Yang
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
| | - Cinoo Kang
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - In-Kyung Song
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
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He C, Kim H, Hashizume M, Lee W, Honda Y, Kim SE, Kinney PL, Schneider A, Zhang Y, Zhu Y, Zhou L, Chen R, Kan H. The effects of night-time warming on mortality burden under future climate change scenarios: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e648-e657. [PMID: 35932785 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00139-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Revised: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 05/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health impacts of climate warming are usually quantified based on daily average temperatures. However, extra health risks might result from hot nights. We project the future mortality burden due to hot nights. METHODS We selected the hot night excess (HNE) to represent the intensity of night-time heat, which was calculated as the excess sum of high temperature during night time. We collected historical mortality data in 28 cities from three east Asian countries, from 1981 to 2010. The associations between HNE and mortality in each city were firstly examined using a generalised additive model in combination with a distributed lag non-linear model over lag 0-10 days. We then pooled the cumulative associations using a univariate meta-regression model at the national or regional levels. Historical and future hourly temperature series were projected under two scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980-2099, with ten general circulation models. We then projected the attributable fraction of mortality due to HNE under each scenario. FINDINGS Our dataset comprised 28 cities across three countries (Japan, South Korea, and China), including 9 185 598 deaths. The time-series analyses showed the HNE was significantly associated with increased mortality risks, the relative mortality risk on days with hot nights could be 50% higher than on days with non-hot nights. Compared with the rise in daily mean temperature (lower than 20%), the frequency of hot nights would increase more than 30% and the intensity of hot night would increase by 50% by 2100s. The attributable fraction of mortality due to hot nights was projected to be 3·68% (95% CI 1·20 to 6·17) under a strict emission control scenario (SSP126). Under a medium emission control scenario (SSP245), the attributable fraction of mortality was projected to increase up to 5·79% (2·07 to 9·52), which is 0·95% (-0·39 to 2·29) more than the attributable fraction of mortality due to daily mean temperature. INTERPRETATION Our study provides evidence for significant mortality risks and burden in association with night-time warming across Japan, South Korea, and China. Our findings suggest a growing role of night-time warming in heat-related health effects in a changing climate. FUNDING The National Natural Science Foundation of China, Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Whanhee Lee
- Department of Environmental Medicine, College of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea; Institute of Ewha-SCL for Environmental Health, College of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Satbyul Estella Kim
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | | | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Yuqiang Zhang
- Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Yixiang Zhu
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lu Zhou
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Children's Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children's Health, Shanghai, China.
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Frangione B, Rodríguez Villamizar LA, Lang JJ, Colman I, Lavigne E, Peters C, Anisman H, Villeneuve PJ. Short-term changes in meteorological conditions and suicide: A systematic review and meta-analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 207:112230. [PMID: 34688638 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2021] [Revised: 10/08/2021] [Accepted: 10/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Suicide is a leading cause of death, particularly for young adults. Suicidal behaviours are influenced by a wide-range of personal, social, and cultural factors. Emerging evidence suggests that daily changes in meteorological conditions, including temperature, increases the risk of suicide. METHODS We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that examined associations between either daily, or weekly, variations for eight meteorological variables and suicide outcomes (attempts, or deaths). Meta-analytic methods were applied to derive summary measures of association using random effect models. We assessed the heterogeneity in these associations by region and biological sex. RESULTS We identified 29 studies of suicide. Of these, 26 reported associations between temperature, while fewer studies reported on rain (n = 4), solar radiation (n = 4), humidity (n = 3), sunshine (n = 3), atmospheric pressure (n = 2), wind (n = 2) and cloud cover (n = 2). The overall relative risk for suicide deaths/attempts per 1 °C increase in ambient temperature was 1.016 (95% CI: 1.013-1.019). Subgroup analysis of temperature found stronger associations with suicide when using the maximum rather than the mean daily temperature, among men, and for completed suicides relative to attempts. Regionally, the strongest associations were found in the East Asia and Pacific region. While associations were found for solar radiation and cloud coverage and suicide, we did not undertake a meta-analysis for these exposures as it was not possible to standardize measures of association across studies. Statistically significant associations were not observed for other identified meteorological variables. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that daily increases in temperature increase the risk of suicide, particularly, among men and in the East Asia and Pacific region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brianna Frangione
- Faculty of Science, Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, Canada
| | | | - Justin J Lang
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research, K1S 5H4, Ottawa, Canada; Faculty of Science, Department of Neuroscience, Carleton University, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Ian Colman
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Eric Lavigne
- Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa/université d'Ottawa, K1N 6N5, Ottawa, Canada; Health Canada/Santé Canada, K1A 0K9, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Cheryl Peters
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, K1N 6N5, Ottawa, Canada; Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Alberta Health Services, T2S 3C3, Calgary, Canada
| | - Hymie Anisman
- Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, T2N 4N1, Calgary, Canada
| | - Paul J Villeneuve
- Faculty of Science, Department of Neuroscience, Carleton University, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, Canada; CHAIM Research Centre, Carleton University, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, Canada.
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Wu Y, Li S, Zhao Q, Wen B, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Nunes B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Pan SC, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, De la Cruz Valencia C, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Van Dung D, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de'Donato F, Rao S, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Hurtado Diaz M, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho M, Ortega NV, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Correa PM, Goodman P, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Guo YL, Bell ML, Guo Y. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e410-e421. [PMID: 35550080 PMCID: PMC9177161 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00073-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Revised: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 03/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Bo Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | | | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | | | | | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Alexander von Humboldt", Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | | | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
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Nishimura H, Nawa N, Ogawa T, Fushimi K, Fujiwara T. Association of ambient temperature and sun exposure with hip fractures in Japan: A time-series analysis using nationwide inpatient database. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 807:150774. [PMID: 34619189 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2021] [Revised: 09/16/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Evidence on whether meteorological conditions affect hip fractures (HFs) is limited. This study aimed to clarify the associations between ambient temperature and sun exposure and HFs in Japan. METHODS Record of daily hospital admissions for HFs between 2015 and 2018 were extracted from a Japanese nationwide inpatient database. We conducted a time-series quasi-Poisson regression analysis using a distributed lag non-linear model with lag 0-39 days to estimate prefecture-specific relative risks (RRs) of HFs. We also estimated pooled RRs using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS We identified 355,563 HFs. For mean temperature, immediate RRs (lag 0-2 days) were 1.349 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.305, 1.395) and 0.754 (95% CI: 0.727, 0.782) for low (mean of the 2.5th percentile) and high (mean of the 97.5th percentile) mean temperature, respectively, relative to the reference (mean of medians). For sunshine duration, immediate RRs were 0.929 (95% CI: 0.913, 0.946) and 1.056 (95% CI: 1.029, 1.085) for short (mean of the 2.5th percentile) and long (mean of the 97.5th percentile) sunshine duration, respectively, and delayed RRs (lag 3-39 days) was 0.770 (95% CI: 0.696, 0.851) for long sunshine duration relative to the reference (mean of medians). Immediate RRs were larger for both exposures in patients admitted from home than in those from care facilities. CONCLUSIONS Lower mean temperature and longer sunshine duration were associated with immediate higher HF risks. Higher mean temperature and shorter sunshine duration were associated with immediate lower HF risks. These associations were modified by admission routes. Longer sunshine duration was also associated with delayed lower HF risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hisaaki Nishimura
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Nobutoshi Nawa
- Department of Medical Education Research and Development, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takahisa Ogawa
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kiyohide Fushimi
- Department of Health Policy and Informatics, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takeo Fujiwara
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan.
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Yu Y, Luo S, Zhang Y, Liu L, Wang K, Hong L, Wang Q. Comparative analysis of daily and hourly temperature variability in association with all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in 45 US cities. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:11625-11633. [PMID: 34537946 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16476-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Accepted: 09/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Temperature variability (TV) has been widely associated with increased mortality risk and burden. Extensive researches have used the standard deviations of several days' daily maximum and minimum temperatures or hourly mean temperatures as daily and hourly TV measures (TVdaily and TVhourly). However, comparative analysis of daily and hourly TV related to cardiorespiratory mortality is still limited. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 45 US metropolises, 1987-2000. A three-stage analysis was adopted to investigate TV-mortality associations using TVdaily and TVhourly as exposure metrics. We first applied a time-series quasi-Poisson regression to estimate location-specific TV-mortality relationships, which were then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis with maximum likelihood estimation. We additionally calculated attributable fraction (AF) as a reflection of mortality burden associated with TV. Stratified analyses by age were also performed to identify the susceptible group to TV-related risks. There were a total of 15.4 million all-cause deaths, of which 6.1 million were from cardiovascular causes and 1.2 million were from respiratory causes. Per 1 °C increase in TVdaily and TVhourly was associated with an increase of 0.53% (95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.76%) and 0.52% (0.26-0.79%) in cardiovascular mortality risks, 0.62% (0.26-0.98%) and 0.53% (0.13-0.94%) in respiratory mortality risks. Estimates of cardiovascular AF for TVdaily and TVhourly were 2.43% (1.42-3.43%) vs. 1.63% (0.82-2.43%), whereas estimates of respiratory AF were 3.07% (1.11-4.99%) vs. 1.89% (0.43-3.34%). Both daily and hourly TV indexes showed approximately linear relationships with different mortality categories and similar lag patterns, but greater fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly. People over 75 years old were relatively more vulnerable to TV-induced risks of mortality. In conclusion, both TVdaily and TVhourly significantly increased all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality risks and burden. Daily and hourly TV metrics exhibited comparable effects of mortality risk, while greater mortality burden was estimated using TVdaily than TVhourly. Our findings may add significance to TV-mortality research and help to promote optimal health management strategies to better mitigate TV-related health effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong Yu
- School of Public Health, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, China
| | - Siqi Luo
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Linjiong Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Ke Wang
- Department of Nursing, Medical College, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Le Hong
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Qun Wang
- School of Public Health, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, China.
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Lee W, Prifti K, Kim H, Kim E, Yang J, Min J, Park JY, Kim YC, Lee JP, Bell ML. Short-term Exposure to Air Pollution and Attributable Risk of Kidney Diseases: A Nationwide Time-series Study. Epidemiology 2022; 33:17-24. [PMID: 34711735 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several studies have shown that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with reduced kidney function. However, less is known about effects of short-term exposure to air pollution on kidney disease aggravation and resultant emergency room (ER) burden. This study aimed to estimate excess ER visits attributable to short-term air pollution and to provide evidence relevant to air pollution standards to protect kidney patients. METHODS We conducted time-series analysis using National Health Insurance data covering all persons in South Korea (2003-2013). We collected daily data for air pollutants (particulate matter ≤10 µm [PM10], ozone [O3], carbon monoxide [CO], and sulfur dioxide [SO2]) and ER visits for total kidney and urinary system disease, acute kidney injury (AKI), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We performed a two-stage time-series analysis to estimate excess ER visits attributable to air pollution by first calculating estimates for each of 16 regions, and then generating an overall estimate. RESULTS For all kidney and urinary disease (902,043 cases), excess ER visits attributable to air pollution existed for all pollutants studied. For AKI (76,330 cases), we estimated the highest impact on excess ER visits from O3, while for CKD (210,929 cases), the impacts of CO and SO2 were the highest. The associations between air pollution and kidney ER visits existed for days with air pollution concentrations below current World Health Organization guidelines. CONCLUSION This study provides quantitative estimates of ER burdens attributable to air pollution. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that stricter air quality standards benefit kidney patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Whanhee Lee
- From the School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT
| | - Kristi Prifti
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Ejin Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Juyeon Yang
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jieun Min
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae Yoon Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, Dongguk University Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Republic of Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Dongguk University College of Medicine, Goyang, Republic of Korea
| | - Yong Chul Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jung Pyo Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Michelle L Bell
- From the School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT
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Pan R, Yao Z, Yi W, Wei Q, He Y, Tang C, Liu X, Son S, Ji Y, Song J, Cheng J, Ji Y, Su H. Temporal trends of the association between temperature variation and hospitalizations for schizophrenia in Hefei, China from 2005 to 2019: a time-varying distribution lag nonlinear model. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:5184-5193. [PMID: 34417696 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15797-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Along with climate change, unstable weather patterns are becoming more frequent. However, the temporal trend associated with the effect of temperature variation on schizophrenia (SCZ) is not clear. Daily time-series data on SCZ and meteorological factors for 15-year between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2019 were collected. And we used the Poisson regression model combined with the time-varying distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to explore the temporal trend of the association between three temperature variation indicators (diurnal temperature range, DTR; temperature variability, TV; temperature change between neighboring days, TCN) and SCZ hospitalizations, respectively. Meanwhile, we also explore the temporal trend of the interaction between temperature and temperature variation. Stratified analyses were performed in different gender, age, and season. Across the whole population, we found a decreasing trend in the risk of SCZ hospitalizations associated with high DTR (from 1.721 to 1.029), TCN (from 1.642 to 1.066), and TV (TV0-1, from 1.034 to 0.994; TV0-2, from 1.041 to 0.994, TV0-3, from 1.044 to 0.992, TV0-4, from 1.049 to 0.992, TV0-5, from 1.055 to 0.993, TV0-6, from 1.059 to 0.991, TV0-7, from 1.059 to 0.990), but an increasing trend in low DTR (from 0.589 to 0.752). Subgroup analysis results further revealed different susceptible groups. Besides, the interactive effect suggests that temperature variation may cause greater harm under low-temperature conditions. There was a synergy between TCN and temperature on the addition and multiplication scales, which were 1.068 (1.007, 1.133) and 0.067 (0.009, 0.122), respectively. Our findings highlight public health interventions to mitigate temperature variation effects needed to focus not only on high temperature variations but also moderately low temperature variations. Future hospitalizations for SCZ associated with temperature variation may be more severely affected by temperature variability from low temperature environments. The temporal trend is associated with the effect of temperature variation on schizophrenia (SCZ).
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Affiliation(s)
- Rubing Pan
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Zhenhai Yao
- Anhui Public Meteorological Service Center, Hefei, 230011, Anhui, China
| | - Weizhuo Yi
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Qiannan Wei
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Yangyang He
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Chao Tang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Xiangguo Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Shasha Son
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Yanhu Ji
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Jian Song
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Jian Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China
| | - Yifu Ji
- The Fourth People's Hospital, Hefei, China.
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.
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Zhang F, Wu C, Zhang M, Zhang H, Feng H, Zhu W. The association between diurnal temperature range and clinic visits for upper respiratory tract infection among college students in Wuhan, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:2287-2297. [PMID: 34363175 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15777-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The effects of daily mean temperature on health outcomes have been discussed in many previous studies, but few have considered the adverse impacts on upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) due to variance of temperature in one day. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) was a novel indicator calculated as maximum temperature minus minimum temperature on the same day. In this study, generalized additive model (GAM) with quasi-Poisson distribution was used to investigate the association between DTR and the number of daily outpatient visits for URTI among college students. Data about meteorological factors and air pollutants were provided by Hubei Meteorological Bureau and Wuhan Environmental Protection Bureau, respectively. Outpatient visits data were collected from the Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2018. Short-term exposure to DTR was associated with the increased risk of outpatient for URTI among all college students. Per 1 °C increased in DTR was associated with 0.73% (95%CI: 0.24, 1.21) increased in outpatient visits of all college students for URTI at lag 0 day. The greatest effect values were observed in males [1.35% (95%CI: 0.33,2.39)] at lag 0-6 days, and in females [0.86% (95%CI: 0.24, 1.49)] at lag 0-1 days. DTR had more adverse health impact in autumn and winter. Public health departments should consider the negative effect of DTR to formulate more effective prevention and control measures for protecting vulnerable people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faxue Zhang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Chuangxin Wu
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Miaoxuan Zhang
- Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, Hubei, China
| | - Han Zhang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Huan Feng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Wei Zhu
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.
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Impact of Heat Waves on Hospitalisation and Mortality in Nursing Homes: A Case-Crossover Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182010697. [PMID: 34682444 PMCID: PMC8536121 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182010697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2021] [Revised: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 10/09/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Climate change leads to more days with extremely hot temperatures. Previous analyses of heat waves have documented a short-term rise in mortality. The results on the relationship between high temperatures and hospitalisations, especially in vulnerable patients admitted to nursing homes, are inconsistent. The objective of this research was to examine the discrepancy between heat-related mortality and morbidity in nursing homes. A time-stratified case-crossover study about the impact of heat waves on mortality and hospitalisations between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017 was conducted in 10 nursing homes over 5 years in Flanders, Belgium. In this study, the events were deaths and hospitalisations. We selected our control days during the same month as the events and matched them by day of the week. Heat waves were the exposure. Conditional logistic regression models were applied. The associations were reported as odds ratios at lag 0, 1, 2, and 3 and their 95% confidence intervals. In the investigated time period, 3048 hospitalisations took place and 1888 residents died. The conditional logistic regression showed that odds ratios of mortality and hospitalisations during heat waves were 1.61 (95% confidence interval 1.10–2.37) and 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.67–1.36), respectively, at lag 0. Therefore, the increase in mortality during heat waves was statistically significant, but no significant changes in hospitalisations were obtained. Our result suggests that heat waves have an adverse effect on mortality in Flemish nursing homes but have no significant effect on the number of hospitalisations.
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Pan R, Wang Q, Yi W, Wei Q, Cheng J, Su H. Temporal trends of the association between extreme temperatures and hospitalisations for schizophrenia in Hefei, China from 2005 to 2014. Occup Environ Med 2021; 78:oemed-2020-107181. [PMID: 33737328 DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2020-107181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2020] [Revised: 01/06/2021] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We aimed to examine the temporal trends of the association between extreme temperature and schizophrenia (SCZ) hospitalisations in Hefei, China. METHODS We collected time-series data on SCZ hospitalisations for 10 years (2005-2014), with a total of 36 607 cases registered. We used quasi-Poisson regression and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the association between extreme temperature (cold and heat) and SCZ hospitalisations. A time-varying DLNM was then used to explore the temporal trends of the association between extreme temperature and SCZ hospitalisations in different periods. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age (0-39 and 40+ years) and gender, respectively. RESULTS We found that extreme cold and heat significantly increased the risk of SCZ hospitalisations (cold: 1st percentile of temperature 1.19 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.37) and 2.5th percentile of temperature 1.16 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.31); heat: 97.5th percentile of temperature 1.37 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.66) and 99th percentile of temperature 1.38 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.69)). We found a slightly decreasing trend in heat-related SCZ hospitalisations and a sharp increasing trend in cold effects from 2005 to 2014. However, the risk of heat-related hospitalisation has been rising since 2008. Stratified analyses showed that age and gender had different modification effects on temporal trends. CONCLUSIONS The findings highlight that as temperatures rise the body's adaptability to high temperatures may be accompanied by more threats from extreme cold. The burden of cold-related SCZ hospitalisations may increase in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rubing Pan
- Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Qizhi Wang
- Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Weizhuo Yi
- Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Qiannan Wei
- Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Jian Cheng
- Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Hong Su
- Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
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