Effective population size/adult population size ratios in wildlife: a review

Patterns of reproduction and autozygosity distinguish the breeding from nonbreeding gray wolves of Yellowstone National Park

For species of management concern, accurate estimates of inbreeding and associated consequences on reproduction are crucial for predicting their future viability. However, few studies have partitioned this aspect of genetic viability with respect to reproduction in a group-living social mammal. We investigated the contributions of foundation stock lineages, putative fitness consequences of inbreeding, and genetic diversity of the breeding versus nonreproductive segment of the Yellowstone National Park gray wolf population. Our dataset spans 25 years and seven generations since reintroduction, encompassing 152 nuclear families and 329 litters. We found more than 87% of the pedigree foundation genomes persisted and report influxes of allelic diversity from two translocated wolves from a divergent source in Montana. As expected for group-living species, mean kinship significantly increased over time but with minimal loss of observed heterozygosity. Strikingly, the reproductive portion of the population carried a significantly lower genome-wide inbreeding coefficients, autozygosity, and more rapid decay for linkage disequilibrium relative to the nonbreeding population. Breeding wolves had significantly longer lifespans and lower inbreeding coefficients than nonbreeding wolves. Our model revealed that the number of litters was negatively significantly associated with heterozygosity (R = -0.11). Our findings highlight genetic contributions to fitness, and the importance of the reproductively active individuals in a population to counteract loss of genetic variation in a wild, free-ranging social carnivore. It is crucial for managers to mitigate factors that significantly reduce effective population size and genetic connectivity, which supports the dispersion of genetic variation that aids in rapid evolutionary responses to environmental challenges.

Ecological genetics of isolated loach populations indicate compromised adaptive potential

Many endangered species live in fragmented and isolated populations with low genetic variability, signs of inbreeding, and small effective population sizes - all features elevating their extinction risk. The flat-headed loach (Oreonectes platycephalus), a small noemacheilid fish, is widely across southern China, but only in the headwaters of hillstreams; as a result, they are spatially isolated from conspecific populations. We surveyed single nucleotide polymorphisms in 16 Hong Kong populations of O. platycephalus to determine whether loach populations from different streams were genetically isolated from each other, showed low levels of genetic diversity, signs of inbreeding, and had small contemporary effective population sizes. Estimates of average observed heterozygosity (HO = 0.0473), average weighted nucleotide diversity (πw = 0.0546) and contemporary effective population sizes (Ne = 10.2 ~ 129.8) were very low, and several populations showed clear signs of inbreeding as judged from relatedness estimates. The degree of genetic differentiation among populations was very high (average FST = 0.668), even over short geographic distances (<1.5 km), with clear patterns of isolation by distance. These results suggest that Hong Kong populations of O. platycephalus have experienced strong genetic drift and loss of genetic variability because sea-level rise after the last glaciation reduced connectedness among paleodrainages, isolating populations in headwaters. All this, together with the fact that the levels of genetic diversity and contemporary effective population sizes within O. platycephalus populations are lower than most other freshwater fishes, suggests that they face high local extinction risk and have limited capacity for future adaptation.

Multinational evaluation of genetic diversity indicators for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Under the recently adopted Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, 196 Parties committed to reporting the status of genetic diversity for all species. To facilitate reporting, three genetic diversity indicators were developed, two of which focus on processes contributing to genetic diversity conservation: maintaining genetically distinct populations and ensuring populations are large enough to maintain genetic diversity. The major advantage of these indicators is that they can be estimated with or without DNA-based data. However, demonstrating their feasibility requires addressing the methodological challenges of using data gathered from diverse sources, across diverse taxonomic groups, and for countries of varying socio-economic status and biodiversity levels. Here, we assess the genetic indicators for 919 taxa, representing 5271 populations across nine countries, including megadiverse countries and developing economies. Eighty-three percent of the taxa assessed had data available to calculate at least one indicator. Our results show that although the majority of species maintain most populations, 58% of species have populations too small to maintain genetic diversity. Moreover, genetic indicator values suggest that IUCN Red List status and other initiatives fail to assess genetic status, highlighting the critical importance of genetic indicators.

Pitfalls and windfalls of detecting demographic declines using population genetics in long-lived species

Detecting recent demographic changes is a crucial component of species conservation and management, as many natural populations face declines due to anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change. Genetic methods allow researchers to detect changes in effective population size (Ne) from sampling at a single timepoint. However, in species with long lifespans, there is a lag between the start of a decline in a population and the resulting decrease in genetic diversity. This lag slows the rate at which diversity is lost, and therefore makes it difficult to detect recent declines using genetic data. However, the genomes of old individuals can provide a window into the past, and can be compared to those of younger individuals, a contrast that may help reveal recent demographic declines. To test whether comparing the genomes of young and old individuals can help infer recent demographic bottlenecks, we use forward-time, individual-based simulations with varying mean individual lifespans and extents of generational overlap. We find that age information can be used to aid in the detection of demographic declines when the decline has been severe. When average lifespan is long, comparing young and old individuals from a single timepoint has greater power to detect a recent (within the last 50 years) bottleneck event than comparing individuals sampled at different points in time. Our results demonstrate how longevity and generational overlap can be both a hindrance and a boon to detecting recent demographic declines from population genomic data.

Outbreeding reduces survival during metamorphosis in a headwater stream salamander

Assessing direct fitness effects of individual genetic diversity is challenging due to the intensive and long-term data needed to quantify survival and reproduction in the wild. But resolving these effects is necessary to determine how inbreeding and outbreeding influence eco-evolutionary processes. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data and single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes for 1906 individuals to test for effects of individual heterozygosity on stage-specific survival probabilities in the salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus. The life cycle of G. porphyriticus includes an aquatic larval stage followed by metamorphosis into a semi-aquatic adult stage. In our study populations, the larval stage lasts 6-10 years, metamorphosis takes several months, and lifespan can reach 20 years. Previous studies showed that metamorphosis is a sensitive life stage, leading us to predict that fitness effects of individual heterozygosity would occur during metamorphosis. Consistent with this prediction, monthly probability of survival during metamorphosis declined with multi-locus heterozygosity (MLH), from 0.38 at the lowest MLH (0.10) to 0.06 at the highest MLH (0.38), a reduction of 84%. Body condition of larvae also declined significantly with increasing MLH. These relationships were consistent in the three study streams. With evidence of localised inbreeding within streams, these results suggest that outbreeding disrupts adaptations in pre-metamorphic and metamorphic individuals to environmental gradients along streams, adding to evidence that headwater streams are hotspots of microgeographic adaptation. Our results also underscore the importance of incorporating life history in analyses of the fitness effects of individual genetic diversity and suggest that metamorphosis and similar discrete life stage transitions may be critical periods of viability selection.

Global assessment of effective population sizes: Consistent taxonomic differences in meeting the 50/500 rule

Effective population size (Ne) is a particularly useful metric for conservation as it affects genetic drift, inbreeding and adaptive potential within populations. Current guidelines recommend a minimum Ne of 50 and 500 to avoid short-term inbreeding and to preserve long-term adaptive potential respectively. However, the extent to which wild populations reach these thresholds globally has not been investigated, nor has the relationship between Ne and human activities. Through a quantitative review, we generated a dataset with 4610 georeferenced Ne estimates from 3829 populations, extracted from 723 articles. These data show that certain taxonomic groups are less likely to meet 50/500 thresholds and are disproportionately impacted by human activities; plant, mammal and amphibian populations had a <54% probability of reachingN ̂ e = 50 and a <9% probability of reachingN ̂ e = 500. Populations listed as being of conservation concern according to the IUCN Red List had a smaller medianN ̂ e than unlisted populations, and this was consistent across all taxonomic groups.N ̂ e was reduced in areas with a greater Global Human Footprint, especially for amphibians, birds and mammals, however relationships varied between taxa. We also highlight several considerations for future works, including the role that gene flow and subpopulation structure plays in the estimation ofN ̂ e in wild populations, and the need for finer-scale taxonomic analyses. Our findings provide guidance for more specific thresholds based on Ne and help prioritise assessment of populations from taxa most at risk of failing to meet conservation thresholds.

Low-coverage sequencing and Wahlund effect severely bias estimates of inbreeding, heterozygosity and effective population size in North American wolves

vonHoldt et al. ((2024), Molecular Ecology, 33, e17231) (vH24) used low-coverage (average ~ 7X read depth) restriction site-associated DNA sequence data to estimate individual inbreeding and heterozygosity, and recent effective population size (Ne), in Great Lakes (GL) and Northern Rocky Mountain (RM) wolves. They concluded that RM heterozygosity rapidly declined between 1991 and 2020, and that Ne declined substantially in GL and RM over the last 50 generations. Here, we evaluate the effects of low sequence coverage and sampling strategy on vH24's findings and provide general recommendations for using sequence data to evaluate inbreeding, heterozygosity and Ne. Low-coverage sequencing resulted in downwardly biased estimates of individual inbreeding and heterozygosity, and an erroneous large temporal decline in RM heterozygosity due to declining read depth through time. Additionally, vH24's sampling strategy-which combined individuals from several genetically differentiated populations and across at least eight wolf generations-is expected to have resulted in severe downward bias in estimates of recent Ne for RM. We recommend using high-coverage sequence data (≥ $$ \ge $$ 15-20X) to estimate inbreeding and heterozygosity. Carefully filtering individuals, loci and genotypes, and using genotype imputation or likelihoods can help to minimise bias when low-coverage sequence data must be used. For estimation of contemporary Ne, the marginal benefits of using more than 103-104 loci are small, so aggressive filtering of loci with low average read depth potentially can retain most individuals without sacrificing much precision. Individuals are relatively more valuable than loci because analyses of contemporary Ne should focus on roughly single-generation samples from local breeding populations.

Temporal genetic variation mediated by climate change-induced salinity decline, a study on Artemia (Crustacea: Anostraca) from Kyêbxang Co, a high altitude salt lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of the areas the richest in salt lakes and Artemia sites. As a result of climate warming and wetting, the areas of salt lakes on the plateau have been increasing, and the salinities have decreased considerably since 1990s. However, the impact of salinity change on the genetic diversity of Artemia is still unknown. Kyêbxang Co is the highest (4620 m above sea level) salt lake currently with commercial harvesting of Artemia resting eggs in the world, and harbors the largest Artemia population on the plateau. Its salinity had dropped from ∼67 ppt in 1998 to ∼39 ppt in 2019. Using 13 microsatellite markers and the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase submit I (COI) gene, we analyzed the temporal changes of genetic diversity, effective population size and genetic structure of this Artemia population based on samples collected in 1998, 2007 and 2019. Our results revealed a steady decline of genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation among the sampling years, which may be a consequence of genetic drift and the selection of decreased salinity. A decline of effective population size was also detected, which may be relative to the fluctuation in census population size, skewed sex ratio, and selection of the declined salinity. In 2007 and 2019, the Artemia population showed an excess of heterozygosity and significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (p < 0.001), which may be associated with the heterozygote advantage under low salinity. To comprehensively understand the impact of climate warming and wetting on Artemia populations on the plateau, further investigation with broad and intensive sampling are needed.

Genomics of post-bottleneck recovery in the northern elephant seal

Populations and species are threatened by human pressure, but their fate is variable. Some depleted populations, such as that of the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris), recover rapidly even when the surviving population was small. The northern elephant seal was hunted extensively and taken by collectors between the early 1800s and 1892, suffering an extreme population bottleneck as a consequence. Recovery was rapid and now there are over 200,000 individuals. We sequenced 260 modern and 8 historical northern elephant seal nuclear genomes to assess the impact of the population bottleneck on individual northern elephant seals and to better understand their recovery. Here we show that inbreeding, an increase in the frequency of alleles compromised by lost function, and allele frequency distortion, reduced the fitness of breeding males and females, as well as the performance of adult females on foraging migrations. We provide a detailed investigation of the impact of a severe bottleneck on fitness at the genomic level and report on the role of specific gene systems.

Harvest and decimation affect genetic drift and the effective population size in wild reindeer

Harvesting and culling are methods used to monitor and manage wildlife diseases. An important consequence of these practices is a change in the genetic dynamics of affected populations that may threaten their long-term viability. The effective population size (N e) is a fundamental parameter for describing such changes as it determines the amount of genetic drift in a population. Here, we estimate N e of a harvested wild reindeer population in Norway. Then we use simulations to investigate the genetic consequences of management efforts for handling a recent spread of chronic wasting disease, including increased adult male harvest and population decimation. The N e/N ratio in this population was found to be 0.124 at the end of the study period, compared to 0.239 in the preceding 14 years period. The difference was caused by increased harvest rates with a high proportion of adult males (older than 2.5 years) being shot (15.2% in 2005-2018 and 44.8% in 2021). Increased harvest rates decreased N e in the simulations, but less sex biased harvest strategies had a lower negative impact. For harvest strategies that yield stable population dynamics, shifting the harvest from calves to adult males and females increased N e. Population decimation always resulted in decreased genetic variation in the population, with higher loss of heterozygosity and rare alleles with more severe decimation or longer periods of low population size. A very high proportion of males in the harvest had the most severe consequences for the loss of genetic variation. This study clearly shows how the effects of harvest strategies and changes in population size interact to determine the genetic drift of a managed population. The long-term genetic viability of wildlife populations subject to a disease will also depend on population impacts of the disease and how these interact with management actions.

Swinging back from the brink? Polygamous mating strategies revealed for an iconic threatened freshwater fish

Catastrophic fish death events are increasing in frequency and severity globally. A series of major recent fish deaths in the semi-arid lower Darling-Baaka river system (LDBR) of Australia are emblematic of these issues with tens of millions of native fish perishing. In 2018-2019 there was a major death event for Australia's largest freshwater fish, Murray cod (Maccullochella peelii). To aid the recovery and guide restoration activities of local Murray cod populations, it is essential to gather information on the mating strategies and effective population size following the fish death event. After the fish deaths, we collected larvae during the 2020 and 2021 breeding seasons and used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to provide insight mating strategies and to estimate effective population size. Larvae were detected in both years along the entire length of the LDBR. Sixteen percent of the inferred breeding individuals were found to contribute to multiple pairings, confirming a complex and polygamous mating system. A high frequency of polygamy was evident both within and between years with 100 % polygamy identified among parents that produced offspring in both 2020 and 2021 and 95 % polygamy identified among parents involved in multiple spawning events within years. Post-larval Murray cod samples collected between 2016 and 2021 were co-analysed to further inform kinship patterns. Again, monogamy was rare with no confirmed cases of the same male-female pair contributing to multiple breeding events within or between seasons. Effective population size based on Murray cod collected after the fish death event was estimated at 721.6 (CI 471-1486), though this has likely declined following a subsequent catastrophic fish death event in the LDBR in March 2023. Our data provide insight into the variability of Murray cod mating strategies, and we anticipate that this knowledge will assist in planning conservation actions to ultimately help recover a species in crisis.

Sources of bias in applying close-kin mark-recapture to terrestrial game species with different life histories

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a method analogous to traditional mark-recapture but without requiring recapture of individuals. Instead, multilocus genotypes (genetic marks) are used to identify related individuals in one or more sampling occasions, which enables the opportunistic use of samples from harvested wildlife. To apply the method accurately, it is important to build appropriate CKMR models that do not violate assumptions linked to the species' and population's biology and sampling methods. In this study, we evaluated the implications of fitting overly simplistic CKMR models to populations with complex reproductive success dynamics or selective sampling. We used forward-in-time, individual-based simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of CKMR abundance and survival estimates in species with different longevities, mating systems, and sampling strategies. Simulated populations approximated a range of life histories among game species of North America with lethal sampling to evaluate the potential of using harvested samples to estimate population size. Our simulations show that CKMR can yield nontrivial biases in both survival and abundance estimates, unless influential life history traits and selective sampling are explicitly accounted for in the modeling framework. The number of kin pairs observed in the sample, in combination with the type of kinship used in the model (parent-offspring pairs and/or half-sibling pairs), can affect the precision and/or accuracy of the estimates. CKMR is a promising method that will likely see an increasing number of applications in the field as costs of genetic analysis continue to decline. Our work highlights the importance of applying population-specific CKMR models that consider relevant demographic parameters, individual covariates, and the protocol through which individuals were sampled.

Genomic Analyses Capture the Human-Induced Demographic Collapse and Recovery in a Wide-Ranging Cervid

The glacial cycles of the Quaternary heavily impacted species through successions of population contractions and expansions. Similarly, populations have been intensely shaped by human pressures such as unregulated hunting and land use changes. White-tailed and mule deer survived in different refugia through the Last Glacial Maximum, and their populations were severely reduced after the European colonization. Here, we analyzed 73 resequenced deer genomes from across their North American range to understand the consequences of climatic and anthropogenic pressures on deer demographic and adaptive history. We found strong signals of climate-induced vicariance and demographic decline; notably, multiple sequentially Markovian coalescent recovers a severe decline in mainland white-tailed deer effective population size (Ne) at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum. We found robust evidence for colonial overharvest in the form of a recent and dramatic drop in Ne in all analyzed populations. Historical census size and restocking data show a clear parallel to historical Ne estimates, and temporal Ne/Nc ratio shows patterns of conservation concern for mule deer. Signatures of selection highlight genes related to temperature, including a cold receptor previously highlighted in woolly mammoth. We also detected immune genes that we surmise reflect the changing land use patterns in North America. Our study provides a detailed picture of anthropogenic and climatic-induced decline in deer diversity and clues to understanding the conservation concerns of mule deer and the successful demographic recovery of white-tailed deer.

Current State of Mugger Populations

The mugger (Crocodylus palustris) is a medium-sized crocodilian inhabiting South Asia. As a result of intensive hunting, its range declined drastically up till the 1970s. Currently, the world mugger population is fragmented and threatened mainly by habitat loss and the consequences of human-crocodile conflict, being classified as Vulnerable by the IUCN. The goal of this paper is to comprehensively determine the mugger's current range, and assess risks in notable habitats of the species across its range. To determine the range and notable habitats, extensive literature covering surveys, monitoring, population studies and reports of human-crocodile conflict was examined. Habitat suitability and risk assessment were performed by evaluating selected habitats using eight factors: the legal status of the area, elevation, surface water availability, water quality, salinity, availability of nesting and basking sites, interaction with humans and interspecific competition. Based on our findings, the chances of the mugger's survival varies greatly across its range and the threats they face are complex and often site-specific. Defining these threats is the first step for determining suitable risk mitigation efforts, some of which are explored in this review.

High germline mutation rates, but not extreme population outbreaks, influence genetic diversity in a keystone coral predator

Lewontin's paradox, the observation that levels of genetic diversity (π) do not scale linearly with census population size (Nc) variation, is an evolutionary conundrum. The most extreme mismatches between π and Nc are found for highly abundant marine invertebrates. Yet, the influences of new mutations on π relative to extrinsic processes such as Nc fluctuations are unknown. Here, we provide the first germline mutation rate (μ) estimate for a marine invertebrate in corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster cf. solaris). We use high-coverage whole-genome sequencing of 14 parent-offspring trios alongside empirical estimates of Nc in Australia's Great Barrier Reef to jointly examine the determinants of π in populations undergoing extreme Nc fluctuations. The A. cf. solaris mean μ was 9.13 x 10-09 mutations per-site per-generation (95% CI: 6.51 x 10-09 to 1.18 x 10-08), exceeding estimates for other invertebrates and showing greater concordance with vertebrate mutation rates. Lower-than-expected Ne (~70,000-180,000) and low Ne/Nc values (0.0047-0.048) indicated weak influences of population outbreaks on long-term π. Our findings are consistent with elevated μ evolving in response to reduced Ne and generation time length, with important implications for explaining high mutational loads and the determinants of genetic diversity in marine invertebrate taxa.

Genetic erosion in an endangered desert fish during a megadrought despite long-term supportive breeding

Human water use combined with a recent megadrought have reduced river and stream flow through the southwest United States and led to periodic drying of formerly perennial river segments. Reductions in snowmelt runoff and increased extent of drying collectively threaten short-lived, obligate aquatic species, including the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus). This species is subject to boom-and-bust population dynamics, under which large fluctuations in abundance are expected to lower estimates of effective population size and erode genetic diversity over time. Rates of diversity loss are also affected by additions of hatchery-origin fish used to supplement the wild population. We used demographic and genetic data from wild and hatchery individuals to examine the relationship of genetic diversity and effective population size to abundance over the last two decades. Genetic diversity was low during the early 2000s, but diversity and demographic metrics stabilized after the hatchery program was initiated and environmental conditions improved. Yet, from 2017 onward, allelic diversity declined (Cohen's d = 1.34) and remained low despite hatchery stocking and brief wild population recovery. Across the time series, single-sample estimates of effective population size based on linkage disequilibrium (LD Ne ) were positively associated (r = 0.53) with wild abundance and total abundance, but as the proportion of hatchery-origin spawners increased, LD Ne declined (r = -0.55). Megadrought limited wild spawner abundance and precluded refreshment of hatchery brood stocks with wild fish; hence, we predict a riverine population increasingly dominated by hatchery-origin individuals and accelerated loss of genetic diversity despite supplementation. We recommend an adaptive and accelerated management plan that integrates river flow management and hatchery operations to slow the pace of genetic diversity loss exacerbated by megadrought.

Demographic history shapes North American gray wolf genomic diversity and informs species' conservation

Effective population size estimates are critical information needed for evolutionary predictions and conservation decisions. This is particularly true for species with social factors that restrict access to breeding or experience repeated fluctuations in population size across generations. We investigated the genomic estimates of effective population size along with diversity, subdivision, and inbreeding from 162,109 minimally filtered and 81,595 statistically neutral and unlinked SNPs genotyped in 437 grey wolf samples from North America collected between 1986 and 2021. We found genetic structure across North America, represented by three distinct demographic histories of western, central, and eastern regions of the continent. Further, grey wolves in the northern Rocky Mountains have lower genomic diversity than wolves of the western Great Lakes and have declined over time. Effective population size estimates revealed the historical signatures of continental efforts of predator extermination, despite a quarter century of recovery efforts. We are the first to provide molecular estimates of effective population size across distinct grey wolf populations in North America, which ranged between Ne  ~ 275 and 3050 since early 1980s. We provide data that inform managers regarding the status and importance of effective population size estimates for grey wolf conservation, which are on average 5.2-9.3% of census estimates for this species. We show that while grey wolves fall above minimum effective population sizes needed to avoid extinction due to inbreeding depression in the short term, they are below sizes predicted to be necessary to avoid long-term risk of extinction.

Genetic approaches reveal a healthy population and an unexpectedly recent origin for an isolated desert spring fish

Foskett Spring in Oregon's desert harbors a historically threatened population of Western Speckled Dace (Rhinichthys klamathensis). Though recently delisted, the dace's recruitment depends upon regular removal of encroaching vegetation. Previous studies assumed that Foskett Dace separated from others in the Warner Valley about 10,000 years ago, thereby framing an enigma about the population's surprising ability to persist for so long in a tiny habitat easily overrun by plants. To investigate that persistence and the effectiveness of interventions to augment population size, we assessed genetic diversity among daces inhabiting Foskett Spring, a refuge at Dace Spring, and three nearby streams. Analysis revealed a robust effective population size (Ne) of nearly 5000 within Foskett Spring, though Ne in the Dace Spring refuge is just 10% of that value. Heterozygosity is slightly lower than expected based on random mating at all five sites, indicating mild inbreeding, but not at a level of concern. These results confirm the genetic health of Foskett Dace. Unexpectedly, genetic differentiation reveals closer similarity between Foskett Dace and a newly discovered population from Nevada's Coleman Creek than between Foskett Dace and dace elsewhere in Oregon. Demographic modeling inferred Coleman Creek as the ancestral source of Foskett Dace fewer than 1000 years ago, much more recently than previously suspected and possibly coincident with the arrival of large herbivores whose grazing may have maintained open water suitable for reproduction. These results solve the enigma of persistence by greatly shortening the duration over which Foskett Dace have inhabited their isolated spring.

Estimation of the contemporary effective population size from SNP data while accounting for mating structure

A new method is developed to estimate the contemporary effective population size (Ne ) from linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs without information on their location, which is the usual scenario in non-model species. The general theory of linkage disequilibrium is extended to include the contribution of full-sibs to the measure of LD, leading naturally to the estimation of Ne in monogamous and polygamous mating systems, as well as in multiparous species, and with non-random distributions of full-sib family size due to selection or other causes. Prediction of confidence intervals for Ne estimates was solved using a small artificial neural network trained on a dataset of over 105 simulation results. The method, implemented in a user-friendly and fast software (currentNe), is able to estimate Ne even in problematic scenarios with large population sizes or small sample sizes and provides confidence intervals that are more consistent than resampling methods.

Where to now with the evolutionarily significant unit?

The designation of units for conservation has been a necessary but challenging objective since conservation efforts began. Most species are divided, typically by environment, into populations with independent evolutionary trajectories. There are practical conservation objectives for defining these boundaries. Separate genetic clusters provide future evolutionary potential as environments change, and individuals in isolated populations may lose fitness when population size is reduced. The history of the effort to define units is briefly reviewed here, but I focus on finding a process that may facilitate uniform and effective application at a time when conservation urgency is great. I propose a refinement of the designated unit concept, distinguishing between conservation units (CUs) and evolutionarily sustaining conservation units (ESCUs).

Worldwide Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene population declines in extant megafauna are associated with Homo sapiens expansion rather than climate change

The worldwide extinction of megafauna during the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene is evident from the fossil record, with dominant theories suggesting a climate, human or combined impact cause. Consequently, two disparate scenarios are possible for the surviving megafauna during this time period - they could have declined due to similar pressures, or increased in population size due to reductions in competition or other biotic pressures. We therefore infer population histories of 139 extant megafauna species using genomic data which reveal population declines in 91% of species throughout the Quaternary period, with larger species experiencing the strongest decreases. Declines become ubiquitous 32-76 kya across all landmasses, a pattern better explained by worldwide Homo sapiens expansion than by changes in climate. We estimate that, in consequence, total megafauna abundance, biomass, and energy turnover decreased by 92-95% over the past 50,000 years, implying major human-driven ecosystem restructuring at a global scale.

Conservation macrogenetics: harnessing genetic data to meet conservation commitments

Genetic biodiversity is rapidly gaining attention in global conservation policy. However, for almost all species, conservation relevant, population-level genetic data are lacking, limiting the extent to which genetic diversity can be used for conservation policy and decision-making. Macrogenetics is an emerging discipline that explores the patterns and processes underlying population genetic composition at broad taxonomic and spatial scales by aggregating and reanalyzing thousands of published genetic datasets. Here we argue that focusing macrogenetic tools on conservation needs, or conservation macrogenetics, will enhance decision-making for conservation practice and fill key data gaps for global policy. Conservation macrogenetics provides an empirical basis for better understanding the complexity and resilience of biological systems and, thus, how anthropogenic drivers and policy decisions affect biodiversity.

Genomic analysis reveals limited hybridization among three giraffe species in Kenya

BACKGROUND

In the speciation continuum, the strength of reproductive isolation varies, and species boundaries are blurred by gene flow. Interbreeding among giraffe (Giraffa spp.) in captivity is known, and anecdotal reports of natural hybrids exist. In Kenya, Nubian (G. camelopardalis camelopardalis), reticulated (G. reticulata), and Masai giraffe sensu stricto (G. tippelskirchi tippelskirchi) are parapatric, and thus, the country might be a melting pot for these taxa. We analyzed 128 genomes of wild giraffe, 113 newly sequenced, representing these three taxa.

RESULTS

We found varying levels of Nubian ancestry in 13 reticulated giraffe sampled across the Laikipia Plateau most likely reflecting historical gene flow between these two lineages. Although comparatively weaker signs of ancestral gene flow and potential mitochondrial introgression from reticulated into Masai giraffe were also detected, estimated admixture levels between these two lineages are minimal. Importantly, contemporary gene flow between East African giraffe lineages was not statistically significant. Effective population sizes have declined since the Late Pleistocene, more severely for Nubian and reticulated giraffe.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite historically hybridizing, these three giraffe lineages have maintained their overall genomic integrity suggesting effective reproductive isolation, consistent with the previous classification of giraffe into four species.

Rapid genetic adaptation to a novel ecosystem despite a large founder event

Introduced and invasive species make excellent natural experiments for investigating rapid evolution. Here, we describe the effects of genetic drift and rapid genetic adaptation in pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) that were accidentally introduced to the Great Lakes via a single introduction event 31 generations ago. Using whole-genome resequencing for 134 fish spanning five sample groups across the native and introduced range, we estimate that the source population's effective population size was 146,886 at the time of introduction, whereas the founding population's effective population size was just 72-a 2040-fold decrease. As expected with a severe founder event, we show reductions in genome-wide measures of genetic diversity, specifically a 37.7% reduction in the number of SNPs and an 8.2% reduction in observed heterozygosity. Despite this decline in genetic diversity, we provide evidence for putative selection at 47 loci across multiple chromosomes in the introduced populations, including missense variants in genes associated with circadian rhythm, immunological response and maturation, which match expected or known phenotypic changes in the Great Lakes. For one of these genes, we use a species-specific agent-based model to rule out genetic drift and conclude our results support a strong response to selection occurring in a period gene (per2) that plays a predominant role in determining an organism's daily clock, matching large day length differences experienced by introduced salmon during important phenological periods. Together, these results inform how populations might evolve rapidly to new environments, even with a small pool of standing genetic variation.

RAD-sequencing improves the genetic characterization of a threatened tree peony (Paeonia ludlowii) endemic to China: Implications for conservation

Compared with traditional genetic markers, genomic approaches have proved valuable to the conservation of endangered species. Paeonia ludlowii having rarely and pure yellow flowers, is one of the world's most famous tree peonies. However, only several wild populations remain in the Yarlung Zangbo Valley (Nyingchi and Shannan regions, Xizang) in China due to increasing anthropogenic impact on the natural habitats. We used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms to elucidate the spatial pattern of genetic variation, population structure and demographic history of P. ludlowii from the fragmented region comprising the entire range of this species, aiming to provide a basis for conserving the genetic resources of this species. Unlike genetic uniformity among populations revealed in previous studies, we found low but varied levels of intra-population genetic diversity, in which lower genetic diversity was detected in the population in Shannan region compared to those in Nyingzhi region. These spatial patterns may be likely associated with different population sizes caused by micro-environment differences in these two regions. Additionally, low genetic differentiation among populations (Fst = 0.0037) were detected at the species level. This line of evidence, combined with the result of significant genetic differentiation between the two closest populations and lack of isolation by distance, suggested that shared ancestry among now remnant populations rather than contemporary genetic connectivity resulted in subtle population structure. Demographic inference suggested that P. ludlowii probably experienced a temporal history of sharp population decline during the period of Last Glacial Maximum, and a subsequent bottleneck event resulting from prehistoric human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. All these events, together with current habitat fragment and excavation might contribute to the endangered status of P. ludlowii. Our study improved the genetic characterization of the endangered tree peony (P. ludlowii) in China, and these genetic inferences should be considered when making different in situ and ex situ conservation actions for P. ludlowii in this evolutionary hotspot region.

Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco-evolutionary dynamics

Studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short-term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary processes, well studied in population genetics and evolutionary ecology, should also be considered to explore the full spectrum of feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Relevant but underappreciated processes include (1) drift and mutation, (2) disruptive selection causing lineage diversification or speciation reversal and (3) evolution driven by relative fitness differences that may decrease population growth. Because eco-evolutionary dynamics have often been studied by population and community ecologists, it will be important to incorporate a variety of concepts in population genetics and evolutionary ecology to better understand and predict eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature.

Genetic diversity and demographic history of the leopard seal: A Southern Ocean top predator

Leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) are top predators that can exert substantial top-down control of their Antarctic prey species. However, population trends and genetic diversity of leopard seals remain understudied, limiting our understanding of their ecological role. We investigated the genetic diversity, effective population size and demographic history of leopard seals to provide fundamental data that contextualizes their predatory influence on Antarctic ecosystems. Ninety leopard seals were sampled from the northern Antarctic Peninsula during the austral summers of 2008-2019 and a 405bp segment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced for each individual. We uncovered moderate levels of nucleotide (π = 0.013) and haplotype (Hd = 0.96) diversity, and the effective population size was estimated at around 24,000 individuals (NE = 24,376; 95% CI: 16,876-33,126). Consistent with findings from other ice-breeding pinnipeds, Bayesian skyline analysis also revealed evidence for population expansion during the last glacial maximum, suggesting that historical population growth may have been boosted by an increase in the abundance of sea ice. Although leopard seals can be found in warmer, sub-Antarctic locations, the species' core habitat is centered on the Antarctic, making it inherently vulnerable to the loss of sea ice habitat due to climate change. Therefore, detailed assessments of past and present leopard seal population trends are needed to inform policies for Antarctic ecosystems.

Alternative life-history strategy contributions to effective population size in a naturally spawning salmon population

Alternative life-history tactics are predicted to affect within-population genetic processes but have received little attention. For example, the impact of precocious males on effective population size (N e) has not been quantified directly in Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp., even though they can make up a large percentage of the total male spawners. We investigated the contribution of precocial males ("jacks") to N e in a naturally spawning population of Coho Salmon O. kisutch from the Auke Creek watershed in Juneau, Alaska. Mature adults that returned from 2009 to 2019 (~8000 individuals) were genotyped at 259 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci for parentage analysis. We used demographic and genetic methods to estimate the effective number of breeders per year (N b). Jack contribution to N b was assessed by comparing values of N b calculated with and without jacks and their offspring. Over a range of N b values (108-406), the average jack contribution to N b from 2009 to 2015 was 12.9% (SE = 3.8%). Jacks consistently made up over 20% of the total male spawners. The presence of jacks did not seem to influence N b/N. The linkage disequilibrium N e estimate was lower than the demographic estimate, possibly due to immigration effects on population genetic processes: based on external marks and parentage data, we estimated that immigrant spawners produced 4.5% of all returning offspring. Our results demonstrate that jacks can influence N b and N e and can make a substantial contribution to population dynamics and conservation of threatened stocks.

Host body size, not host population size, predicts genome-wide effective population size of parasites

The effective population size (N_e) of an organism is expected to be generally proportional to the total number of individuals in a population. In parasites, we might expect the effective population size to be proportional to host population size and host body size, because both are expected to increase the number of parasite individuals. However, among other factors, parasite populations are sometimes so extremely subdivided that high levels of inbreeding may distort these predicted relationships. Here, we used whole-genome sequence data from dove parasites (71 feather louse species of the genus Columbicola) and phylogenetic comparative methods to study the relationship between parasite effective population size and host population size and body size. We found that parasite effective population size is largely explained by host body size but not host population size. These results suggest the potential local population size (infrapopulation or deme size) is more predictive of the long-term effective population size of parasites than is the total number of potential parasite infrapopulations (i.e., host individuals).

Population structure and genetic diversity of the endangered fish black shinner Pseudopungtungia nigra (Cyprinidae) in Korea: a wild and restoration population

The black shinner Pseudopungtungia nigra Mori, 1935 is an endangered fish endemic to Korea. It lives in the narrow basin of the Geumgang River, Mangyeonggang River, and Ungcheoncheon Stream, which flow into the West Sea of Korea. One population of P. nigra in Ungcheoncheon Stream has been locally exterminated once; it is now inhabiting the upper reaches of the dam through a restoration program. Efforts to identify and understand the genetic structure of these populations are important for conservation planning. Here, we analyzed genetic diversity using 21 microsatellite markers for 9 populations. The mean number of alleles ranged from 4.4 to 8.1, mean allelic richness ranged from 4.6 to 7.8, mean observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.519 to 0.702, and mean expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.540 to 0.763. All groups had recent and historical bottlenecks (P < 0.05, M-ratio < 0.68). Three groups [YD (2019), OC and UC] had significant inbreeding index values, suggesting that they were engaged in inbreeding. We observed a moderate level of genetic differentiation between MG and the rest of the population (FST = 0.135 to 0.168, P < 0.05). The genetic structure exhibited a fitting constant K = 2, along with separation between MG and the remaining populations. With respect to genetic flow, YD (2019), OC, CG, and ND shifted to the UC population (0.263 to 0.278). The genetic flow of each population was transferred only within the population; there was no gene flow among populations, except for the Ungcheoncheon Stream population. This study shows that the Ungcheoncheon Stream population needs conservation efforts to increase its genetic diversity, and the Geumgang River populations needs a conservation plan that considers the possibility of conservation and evolution through gene exchange among the populations.

Life history complementarity and the maintenance of biodiversity

Life history, the schedule of when and how fast organisms grow, die and reproduce, is a critical axis along which species differ from each other^1-4. In parallel, competition is a fundamental mechanism that determines the potential for species coexistence^5-8. Previous models of stochastic competition have demonstrated that large numbers of species can persist over long timescales, even when competing for a single common resource^9-12, but how life history differences between species increase or decrease the possibility of coexistence and, conversely, whether competition constrains what combinations of life history strategies complement each other remain open questions. Here we show that specific combinations of life history strategy optimize the persistence times of species competing for a single resource before one species overtakes its competitors. This suggests that co-occurring species would tend to have such complementary life history strategies, which we demonstrate using empirical data for perennial plants.

When Theory Meets Practice: Balancing Genetic Diversity and Behaviour When Choosing Founders for a Recently Reintroduced Bison (Bison bison) Herd in Banff National Park, Canada

The tragic decline of plains bison (Bison bison bison) in North America is well known. By the turn of the 20th century, plains bison, once numbering in the tens of millions, were extirpated from the wild in Canada. Banff National Park, AB, Canada, is within the original range of bison in North America, and still contains suitable habitat for the species. In 2017, we used measures of genetic diversity, as well as age and reproductive status, to select 16 plains bison for reintroduction to an unoccupied corner of their former historic range in Banff National Park. However, five of the preferred founders from this genetically diverse group needed to be substituted for less ideal candidates when aggressive behavior was observed, which could have compromised animal welfare during translocation. The level of genetic diversity in the founding population was therefore lower than if all proposed founders had been used, although the difference was not substantial. As expected, adults in this small, reintroduced herd had lower observed heterozygosity and number of alleles than the larger source herd, but expected heterozygosity was higher, likely a result of preferentially choosing individuals with rare alleles. Another substantial contribution to genetic diversity was in unborn fetuses: sired by males that were not translocated, the calves born a few months later provided a boost to the genetic diversity of this small founder herd. Where opportunities allow, the inclusion of pregnant females can significantly increase the genetic diversity of small founder populations. When compared to other founded herds of bison, the techniques described here have ensured that the newly established Banff NP herd is one of the most diverse bison herds in Canada, despite its relatively small number of founders.

Effective population size in a partially clonal plant is not predicted by the number of genetic individuals

Estimating effective population size (N _e) is important for theoretical and practical applications in evolutionary biology and conservation. Nevertheless, estimates of N _e in organisms with complex life-history traits remain scarce because of the challenges associated with estimation methods. Partially clonal plants capable of both vegetative (clonal) growth and sexual reproduction are a common group of organisms for which the discrepancy between the apparent number of individuals (ramets) and the number of genetic individuals (genets) can be striking, and it is unclear how this discrepancy relates to N _e. In this study, we analysed two populations of the orchid Cypripedium calceolus to understand how the rate of clonal versus sexual reproduction affected N _e. We genotyped >1000 ramets at microsatellite and SNP loci, and estimated contemporary N _e with the linkage disequilibrium method, starting from the theoretical expectation that variance in reproductive success among individuals caused by clonal reproduction and by constraints on sexual reproduction would lower N _e. We considered factors potentially affecting our estimates, including different marker types and sampling strategies, and the influence of pseudoreplication in genomic data sets on N _e confidence intervals. The magnitude of N _e/N _ramets and N _e/N _genets ratios we provide may be used as reference points for other species with similar life-history traits. Our findings demonstrate that N _e in partially clonal plants cannot be predicted based on the number of genets generated by sexual reproduction, because demographic changes over time can strongly influence N _e. This is especially relevant in species of conservation concern in which population declines may not be detected by only ascertaining the number of genets.

Fragmented habitat compensates for the adverse effects of genetic bottleneck

In the face of the human-caused biodiversity crisis, understanding the theoretical basis of conservation efforts of endangered species and populations has become increasingly important. According to population genetics theory, population subdivision helps organisms retain genetic diversity, crucial for adaptation in a changing environment. Habitat topography is thought to be important for generating and maintaining population subdivision, but empirical cases are needed to test this assumption. We studied Saimaa ringed seals, landlocked in a labyrinthine lake and recovering from a drastic bottleneck, with additional samples from three other ringed seal subspecies. Using whole-genome sequences of 145 seals, we analyzed the distribution of variation and genetic relatedness among the individuals in relation to the habitat shape. Despite a severe history of genetic bottlenecks with prevalent homozygosity in Saimaa ringed seals, we found evidence for the population structure mirroring the subregions of the lake. Our genome-wide analyses showed that the subpopulations had retained unique variation and largely complementary patterns of homozygosity, highlighting the significance of habitat connectivity in conservation biology and the power of genomic tools in understanding its impact. The central role of the population substructure in preserving genetic diversity at the metapopulation level was confirmed by simulations. Integration of genetic analyses in conservation decisions gives hope to Saimaa ringed seals and other endangered species in fragmented habitats.

Isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-oceanography in Maroon Anemonefish (Amphiprion biaculeatus)

Obtaining dispersal estimates for a species is key to understanding local adaptation and population dynamics and to implementing conservation actions. Genetic isolation-by-distance (IBD) patterns can be used for estimating dispersal, and these patterns are especially useful for marine species in which few other methods are available. In this study, we genotyped coral reef fish (Amphiprion biaculeatus) at 16 microsatellite loci across eight sites across 210 km in the central Philippines to generate fine-scale estimates of dispersal. All sites except for one followed IBD patterns. Using IBD theory, we estimated a larval dispersal kernel spread of 8.9 km (95% confidence interval of 2.3-18.4 km). Genetic distance to the remaining site correlated strongly with the inverse probability of larval dispersal from an oceanographic model. Ocean currents were a better explanation for genetic distance at large spatial extents (sites greater than 150 km apart), while geographic distance remained the best explanation for spatial extents less than 150 km. Our study demonstrates the utility of combining IBD patterns with oceanographic simulations to understand connectivity in marine environments and to guide marine conservation strategies.

Demographic changes and life-history strategies predict the genetic diversity in crabs

Uncovering what predicts genetic diversity (GD) within species can help us access the status of populations and their evolutionary potential. Traits related to effective population size show a proportional association to GD, but evidence supports life-history strategies and habitat as the drivers of GD variation. Instead of investigating highly divergent taxa, focusing on one group could help to elucidate the factors influencing the GD. Additionally, most empirical data is based on vertebrate taxa; therefore, we might be missing novel patterns of GD found in neglected invertebrate groups. Here, we investigated the predictors of the GD in crabs (Brachyura) by compiling the most comprehensive cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) available. Eight predictor variables were analysed across 150 species (16 992 sequences) using linear models (multiple linear regression) and comparative methods (PGLS). Our results indicate that population size fluctuation represents the most critical trait predicting GD, with species that have undergone bottlenecks followed by population expansion showing lower GD. Egg size, pelagic larval duration and habitat might play a role probably because of their association with how species respond to disturbances. Ultimately, K-strategists that have undergone bottlenecks are the species showing lower GD. Some variables do not show an association with GD as expected, most likely due to the taxon-specific role of some predictors, which should be considered in further investigations and generalizations. This work highlights the complexity underlying the predictors of GD and adds results from a marine invertebrate group to the current understanding of this topic.

Genomic Underpinnings of Population Persistence in Isle Royale Moose

Island ecosystems provide natural laboratories to assess the impacts of isolation on population persistence. However, most studies of persistence have focused on a single species, without comparisons to other organisms they interact with in the ecosystem. The case study of moose and gray wolves on Isle Royale allows for a direct contrast of genetic variation in isolated populations that have experienced dramatically differing population trajectories over the past decade. Whereas the Isle Royale wolf population recently declined nearly to extinction due to severe inbreeding depression, the moose population has thrived and continues to persist, despite having low genetic diversity and being isolated for ∼120 years. Here, we examine the patterns of genomic variation underlying the continued persistence of the Isle Royale moose population. We document high levels of inbreeding in the population, roughly as high as the wolf population at the time of its decline. However, inbreeding in the moose population manifests in the form of intermediate-length runs of homozygosity suggestive of historical inbreeding and purging, contrasting with the long runs of homozygosity observed in the smaller wolf population. Using simulations, we confirm that substantial purging has likely occurred in the moose population. However, we also document notable increases in genetic load, which could eventually threaten population viability over the long term. Overall, our results demonstrate a complex relationship between inbreeding, genetic diversity, and population viability that highlights the use of genomic datasets and computational simulation tools for understanding the factors enabling persistence in isolated populations.

Genomic diversity and differentiation between island and mainland populations of white-tailed eagles (Haliaeetus albicilla)

Divergence in the face of high dispersal capabilities is a documented but poorly understood phenomenon. The white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) has a large geographic dispersal capability and should theoretically be able to maintain genetic homogeneity across its dispersal range. However, following analysis of the genomic variation of white-tailed eagles, from both historical and contemporary samples, clear signatures of ancient biogeographic substructure across Europe and the North-East Atlantic is observed. The greatest genomic differentiation was observed between island (Greenland and Iceland) and mainland (Denmark, Norway and Estonia) populations. The two island populations share a common ancestry from a single mainland population, distinct from the other sampled mainland populations, and despite the potential for high connectivity between Iceland and Greenland they are well separated from each other and are characterized by inbreeding and little variation. Temporal differences also highlight a pattern of regional populations persisting despite the potential for admixture. All sampled populations generally showed a decline in effective population size over time, which may have been shaped by four historical events: (1) Isolation of refugia during the last glacial period 110-115,000 years ago, (2) population divergence following the colonization of the deglaciated areas ~10,000 years ago, (3) human population expansion, which led to the settlement in Iceland ~1100 years ago, and (4) human persecution and exposure to toxic pollutants during the last two centuries.

Conservation genomics reveals fine-scale population structuring and recent declines in the Critically Endangered Australian Kuranda Treefrog

The Kuranda Treefrog occurs in tropical north-east Australia and is listed as Critically Endangered due to its small distribution and population size, with observed declines due to drought and human-associated impacts to habitat. Field surveys identified marked population declines in the mid-2000s, culminating in very low abundance at most sites in 2005 and 2006, followed by limited recovery. Here, samples from before (2001–2004) and after (2007–2009) this decline were analysed using 7132 neutral genome-wide SNPs to assess genetic connectivity among breeding sites, genetic erosion, and effective population size. We found a high level of genetic connectivity among breeding sites, but also structuring between the population at the eastern end of the distribution (Jumrum Creek) versus all other sites. Despite finding no detectable sign of genetic erosion between the two times periods, we observed a marked decrease in effective population size (Ne), from 1720 individuals pre-decline to 818 post-decline. This mirrors the decline detected in the field census data, but the magnitude of the decline suggested by the genetic data is greater. We conclude that the current effective population size for the Kuranda Treefrog remains around 800 adults, split equally between Jumrum Creek and all other sites combined. The Jumrum Creek habitat requires formal protection. Connectivity among all other sites must be maintained and improved through continued replanting of rainforest, and it is imperative that impacts to stream flow and water quality are carefully managed to maintain or increase population sizes and prevent genetic erosion.

(Not) far from home: No sex bias in dispersal, but limited genetic patch size, in an endangered species, the Spotted Turtle (Clemmys guttata)

Sex-biased dispersal is common in many animals, with male-biased dispersal often found in studies of mammals and reptiles, including interpretations of spatial genetic structure, ostensibly as a result of male-male competition and a lack of male parental care. Few studies of sex-biased dispersal have been conducted in turtles, but a handful of studies, in saltwater turtles and in terrestrial turtles, have detected male-biased dispersal as expected. We tested for sex-biased dispersal in the endangered freshwater turtle, the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata) by investigating fine-scale genetic spatial structure of males and females. We found significant spatial genetic structure in both sexes, but the patterns mimicked each other. Both males and females typically had higher than expected relatedness at distances <25 km, and in many distance classes greater than 25 km, less than expected relatedness. Similar patterns were apparent whether we used only loci in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (n = 7) or also included loci with potential null alleles (n = 5). We conclude that, contrary to expectations, sex-biased dispersal is not occurring in this species, possibly related to the reverse sexual dimorphism in this species, with females having brighter colors. We did, however, detect significant spatial genetic structure in males and females, separate and combined, showing philopatry within a genetic patch size of <25 km in C. guttata, which is concerning for an endangered species whose populations are often separated by distances greater than the genetic patch size.

Genomic analyses reveal range-wide devastation of sea otter populations

The genetic consequences of species-wide declines are rarely quantified because the timing and extent of the decline varies across the species' range. The sea otter (Enhydra lutris) is a unique model in this regard. Their dramatic decline from thousands to fewer than 100 individuals per population occurred range-wide and nearly simultaneously due to the 18th-19th century fur trade. Consequently, each sea otter population represents an independent natural experiment of recovery after extreme population decline. We designed sequence capture probes for 50 Mb of sea otter exonic and neutral genomic regions. We sequenced 107 sea otters from five populations that span the species range to high coverage (18-76×) and three historical Californian samples from ~1500 and ~200 years ago to low coverage (1.5-3.5×). We observe distinct population structure and find that sea otters in California are the last survivors of a divergent lineage isolated for thousands of years and therefore warrant special conservation concern. We detect signals of extreme population decline in every surviving sea otter population and use this demographic history to design forward-in-time simulations of coding sequence. Our simulations indicate that this decline could lower the fitness of recovering populations for generations. However, the simulations also demonstrate how historically low effective population sizes prior to the fur trade may have mitigated the effects of population decline on genetic health. Our comprehensive approach shows how demographic inference from genomic data, coupled with simulations, allows assessment of extinction risk and different models of recovery.

Recent Changes in Genetic Diversity, Structure, and Gene Flow in a Passerine Experiencing a Rapid Population Decline, the Dupont’s Lark (Chersophilus duponti)

Monitoring temporal dynamics in genetic diversity is of great importance for conservation, especially for threatened species that are suffering a rapid population decline and increased fragmentation. Here, we investigate temporal variation in genetic diversity, structure, and gene flow in the Dupont’s lark (Chersophilus duponti) across most of its range. This species shows increasing levels of population fragmentation, substantial population declines, and severe range contraction, so temporal losses of genetic diversity, increasing differentiation, and decreasing gene flow are expected when comparing present day data with previous situations. To address this, we resampled sites (nine regions in two countries) after 12–15 years (five-to-seven generations) and assessed changes in genetic parameters using 11 microsatellite markers. We found no substantial loss in genetic diversity over time at the species level, but we detected considerable variation among regions in the amount of allelic diversity and heterozygosity lost over time. Temporal variation in allele frequencies (common, rare, and private alleles), and changes in genetic differentiation and gene flow over time suggest a major role of connectivity for the stability of the overall metapopulation. Our results agree with the hypothesis that connectivity rescues genetic diversity via immigration and gene flow. However, evidence of recent genetic bottleneck and the substantial changes detected in some regions are clear signs of genetic erosion and may be signalling a rapid decline of the populations. Urgent actions must be carried out to stop and reverse human impacts on this threatened lark and its habitat.

Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability.

Adult sex ratios: causes of variation and implications for animal and human societies

Converging lines of inquiry from across the social and biological sciences target the adult sex ratio (ASR; the proportion of males in the adult population) as a fundamental population-level determinant of behavior. The ASR, which indicates the relative number of potential mates to competitors in a population, frames the selective arena for competition, mate choice, and social interactions. Here we review a growing literature, focusing on methodological developments that sharpen knowledge of the demographic variables underlying ASR variation, experiments that enhance understanding of the consequences of ASR imbalance across societies, and phylogenetic analyses that provide novel insights into social evolution. We additionally highlight areas where research advances are expected to make accelerating contributions across the social sciences, evolutionary biology, and biodiversity conservation.