Analysis of aggregation, a worked example: numbers of ticks on red grouse chicks

Model selection of GLMMs in the analysis of count data in single-case studies: A Monte Carlo simulation

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) have great potential to deal with count data in single-case experimental designs (SCEDs). However, applied researchers have faced challenges in making various statistical decisions when using such advanced statistical techniques in their own research. This study focused on a critical issue by investigating the selection of an appropriate distribution to handle different types of count data in SCEDs due to overdispersion and/or zero-inflation. To achieve this, I proposed two model selection frameworks, one based on calculating information criteria (AIC and BIC) and another based on utilizing a multistage-model selection procedure. Four data scenarios were simulated including Poisson, negative binominal (NB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB). The same set of models (i.e., Poisson, NB, ZIP, and ZINB) were fitted for each scenario. In the simulation, I evaluated 10 model selection strategies within the two frameworks by assessing the model selection bias and its consequences on the accuracy of the treatment effect estimates and inferential statistics. Based on the simulation results and previous work, I provide recommendations regarding which model selection methods should be adopted in different scenarios. The implications, limitations, and future research directions are also discussed.

Explorational analysis of the abundance and prevalence of chigger and gamasid mites parasitic on small mammals in Vietnam

We studied chigger and gamasid mite loads on small mammals during the dry season in Vietnam and used both our field data and museum collections to estimate the influence of environmental factors on mite abundance and prevalence. Generalized linear (mixed effect) models were used to analyze the data. We examined 1,239 small mammal individuals, which were obtained from field expeditions and museum collections belonging to 59 species. In different localities, Rattus Fischer (Rodentia: Muridae), Niviventer Marshall (Rodentia: Muridae), and Maxomys Sody (Rodentia: Muridae) were the most common animals captured. The prevalence of chigger and gamasid mites in our expedition data was high: 72% and 62%, respectively. We found differences in the abundance of chigger mites between different populations of the same species of small mammals. Season and locality were the main factors that influenced chigger mite abundance and prevalence. The best model that predicted the abundance and prevalence of chigger mites included geography (province) as a predictor and host species and season as random effects. For the first time, we analyzed factors connected with climate and weather affecting chigger mites of small mammals in Vietnam.

Accounting for missing ticks: Use (or lack thereof) of hierarchical models in tick ecology studies

Ixodid (hard) ticks play important ecosystem roles and have significant impacts on animal and human health via tick-borne diseases and physiological stress from parasitism. Tick occurrence, abundance, activity, and key life-history traits are highly influenced by host availability, weather, microclimate, and landscape features. As such, changes in the environment can have profound impacts on ticks, their hosts, and the spread of diseases. Researchers recognize that spatial and temporal factors influence activity and abundance and attempt to account for both by conducting replicate sampling bouts spread over the tick questing period. However, common field methods notoriously underestimate abundance, and it is unclear how (or if) tick studies model the confounding effects of factors influencing activity and abundance. This step is critical as unaccounted variance in detection can lead to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance. We performed a descriptive review to evaluate the extent to which studies account for the detection process while modeling tick data. We also categorized the types of analyses that are commonly used to model tick data. We used hierarchical models (HMs) that account for imperfect detection to analyze simulated and empirical tick data, demonstrating that inference is muddled when detection probability is not accounted for in the modeling process. Our review indicates that only 5 of 412 (1 %) papers explicitly accounted for imperfect detection while modeling ticks. By comparing HMs with the most common approaches used for modeling tick data (e.g., ANOVA), we show that population estimates are biased low for simulated and empirical data when using non-HMs, and that confounding occurs due to not explicitly modeling factors that influenced both detection and abundance. Our review and analysis of simulated and empirical data shows that it is important to account for our ability to detect ticks using field methods with imperfect detection. Not doing so leads to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance which could complicate our understanding of parasite-host relationships and the spread of tick-borne diseases. We highlight the resources available for learning HM approaches and applying them to analyzing tick data.

Trait-specific sensitive developmental windows: Wing growth best integrates weather conditions encountered throughout the development of nestling Alpine swifts

The size and growth patterns of nestling birds are key determinants of their survival up to fledging and long-term fitness. However, because traits such as feathers, skeleton and body mass can follow different developmental trajectories, our understanding of the impact of adverse weather on development requires insights into trait-specific sensitive developmental windows. We analysed data from nestling Alpine swifts in Switzerland measured throughout growth up to the age of 50 days (i.e. fledging between 50 and 70 days), for wing length and body mass (2693 nestlings in 25 years) and sternum length (2447 nestlings in 22 years). We show that the sensitive developmental windows for wing and sternum length corresponded to the periods of trait-specific peak growth, which span almost the whole developmental period for wings and the first half for the sternum. Adverse weather conditions during these periods slowed down growth and reduced size. Although nestling body mass at 50 days showed the greatest inter-individual variation, this was explained by weather in the two days before measurement rather than during peak growth. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and body mass was not linear, and the initial sharp increase in body mass associated with the increase in temperature was followed by a moderate drop on hot days, likely linked to heat stress. Nestlings experiencing adverse weather conditions during wing growth had lower survival rates up to fledging and fledged at later ages, presumably to compensate for slower wing growth. Overall, our results suggest that measures of feather growth and, to some extent, skeletal growth best capture the consequences of adverse weather conditions throughout the whole development of offspring, while body mass better reflects the short, instantaneous effects of weather conditions on their body reserves (i.e. energy depletion vs. storage in unfavourable vs. favourable conditions).

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Multilevel modeling in single-case studies with zero-inflated and overdispersed count data

Count outcomes are frequently encountered in single-case experimental designs (SCEDs). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) have shown promise in handling overdispersed count data. However, the presence of excessive zeros in the baseline phase of SCEDs introduces a more complex issue known as zero-inflation, often overlooked by researchers. This study aimed to deal with zero-inflated and overdispersed count data within a multiple-baseline design (MBD) in single-case studies. It examined the performance of various GLMMs (Poisson, negative binomial [NB], zero-inflated Poisson [ZIP], and zero-inflated negative binomial [ZINB] models) in estimating treatment effects and generating inferential statistics. Additionally, a real example was used to demonstrate the analysis of zero-inflated and overdispersed count data. The simulation results indicated that the ZINB model provided accurate estimates for treatment effects, while the other three models yielded biased estimates. The inferential statistics obtained from the ZINB model were reliable when the baseline rate was low. However, when the data were overdispersed but not zero-inflated, both the ZINB and ZIP models exhibited poor performance in accurately estimating treatment effects. These findings contribute to our understanding of using GLMMs to handle zero-inflated and overdispersed count data in SCEDs. The implications, limitations, and future research directions are also discussed.

Adaptive introgression of a visual preference gene

Visual preferences are important drivers of mate choice and sexual selection, but little is known of how they evolve at the genetic level. In this study, we took advantage of the diversity of bright warning patterns displayed by Heliconius butterflies, which are also used during mate choice. Combining behavioral, population genomic, and expression analyses, we show that two Heliconius species have evolved the same preferences for red patterns by exchanging genetic material through hybridization. Neural expression of regucalcin1 correlates with visual preference across populations, and disruption of regucalcin1 with CRISPR-Cas9 impairs courtship toward conspecific females, providing a direct link between gene and behavior. Our results support a role for hybridization during behavioral evolution and show how visually guided behaviors contributing to adaptation and speciation are encoded within the genome.

Discovery of insecticide resistance in field-collected populations of the aphid pest, Acyrthosiphon kondoi Shinji

BACKGROUND

The bluegreen aphid (Acyrthosiphon kondoi) is a worldwide pest of alfalfa, pulses, and other legume crops. An overreliance on insecticides to control A. kondoi has potentially placed populations under selection pressure favouring resistant phenotypes, but to date, there have been no documented cases of insecticide resistance. Recently, Australian growers began reporting that conventional insecticides were failing to adequately control A. kondoi populations, prompting this laboratory-based investigation into whether these populations have evolved resistance.

RESULTS

We discovered four A. kondoi populations with moderate resistance (10-40-fold) to three different insecticide groups: organophosphates, carbamates and pyrethroids. However, A. kondoi populations showed no resistance to the butenolide, flupyradifurone. We were unable to identify general metabolic mechanisms using synergist assays (cytochromes P450, glutathione S-transferases, or esterases), indicating that further detailed molecular investigations to characterise the putative resistance mechanism are needed.

CONCLUSION

Insecticide-resistant A. kondoi present an emerging challenge to Australian agriculture. Growers require new tools and updated strategies, including access to newer chemistries, to alleviate their reliance on the few insecticides currently registered against A. kondoi. The implications of insecticide resistant A. kondoi for future management, the potential mechanisms of resistance, and future research priorities are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Effects of Tourist and Researcher Presence on Fecal Glucocorticoid Metabolite Levels in Wild, Habituated Sulawesi Crested Macaques (Macaca nigra)

Ecotourism managers and researchers often assume that apparently habituated primate groups no longer experience adverse consequences of prolonged exposure to tourists or researchers. We examined the effects of tourists and researchers on fecal glucocorticoid metabolite output (FGCM) in three critically endangered, wild crested macaque (Macaca nigra) groups in Tangkoko Nature Reserve, Sulawesi, Indonesia. We assayed FGCM from 456 fecal samples collected from thirty-three adults. Tourists can walk through and among macaque groups freely. Hence, we examined the possible effects of tourists both (1) in the reserve when away and not interacting with the study groups and (2) when they were present within the macaque groups. Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) analysis indicated that when tourists were present in the forest, but not directly among the macaques, FGCM levels in the macaque tourism groups were higher in months with more tourists. When tourists were among the macaque groups, some female macaques experienced rises and subsequent postexposure decreases in FGCM levels, consistent with predictions for acute stress. Male FGCM levels increased with tourist numbers within the group. Nevertheless, they were not significantly different from levels during undisturbed or postexposure conditions. FGCM responses related to researchers in groups varied by group, sex, and tourist presence. However, the temporal patterning of FGCM responses showed little evidence of chronic stress from tourism at this site.

Impact of health disparities on national breast cancer screening participation rates in South Korea

Socioeconomic barriers to cancer screening exist at a regional level. The deprivation index is used to estimate socioeconomic gradients and health disparities across different geographical regions. We aimed to examine the impact of deprivation on breast cancer screening participation rates among South Korean women. Municipal breast cancer screening participation rates in women were extracted from the National Cancer Screening Information System and linked to the Korean version of the deprivation index constructed by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. A generalised linear mixed model was employed to investigate the association between the deprivation index and age-standardised breast cancer screening participation rates in 2005, 2012, and 2018. Participation rates increased gradually across all age groups from 2005 to 2018. Participants in their 60 s consistently had one of the highest participation rates (2005: 30.37%, 2012: 61.57%, 2018: 65.88%). In 2005, the most deprived quintile had a higher estimate of breast cancer screening participation than the least deprived quintile (2nd quintile; estimate: 1.044, p = 0.242, 3rd quintile; estimate: 1.153, p = 0.192, 4th quintile; estimate: 3.517, p = 0.001, 5th quintile; estimate: 6.913, p =  < 0.0001). In 2012, the participation rate also increased as the level of deprivation increased. There were no statistically meaningful results in 2018. Regions with high deprivation have a higher participation rate in breast cancer screening. The role of health disparities in determining cancer outcomes among women in Korea requires further examination.

Use climatic space-for-time substitutions with care: Not only climate, but also local environment affect performance of the key forest species bilberry along elevation gradient

An urgent aim of ecology is to understand how key species relate to climatic and environmental variation, to better predict their prospects under future climate change. The abundant dwarf shrub bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) has caught particular interest due to its uphill expansion into alpine areas. Species' performance under changing climate has been widely studied using the climatic space-for-time approach along elevation gradients, but potentially confounding, local environmental variables that vary along elevation gradients have rarely been considered. In this study, performed in 10 sites along an elevation gradient (200-875 m) in W Norway, we recorded species composition and bilberry performance, both vegetative (ramet size and cover) and reproductive (berry and seed production) properties, over one to 4 years. We disentangled effects of local environmental variables and between-year, climatic variation (precipitation and temperature), and identified shared and unique contributions of these variables by variation partitioning. We found bilberry ramet size, cover and berry production to peak at intermediate elevations, whereas seed production increased upwards. The peaks were less pronounced in extreme (dry or cold) summers than in normal summers. Local environmental variables explained much variation in ramet size and cover, less in berry production, and showed no relation to seed production. Climatic variables explained more of the variation in berry and seed production than in ramet size and cover, with temperature relating to vegetative performance, and precipitation to reproductive performance. Bilberry's clonal growth and effective reproduction probably explain why the species persists in the forest and at the same time invades alpine areas. Our findings raise concerns of the appropriateness of the climatic space-for-time approach. We recommend including both climatic and local environmental variables in studies of variation along elevation gradients and conclude that variation partitioning can be a useful supplement to other methods for analysing variation in plant performance.

Long-term trends and drivers of biological invasion in Central European streams

Rates of biological invasion continue to accelerate and threaten the structure and function of ecosystems worldwide. High habitat connectivity, multiple pathways, and inadequate monitoring have rendered aquatic ecosystems vulnerable to species introductions. Past riverine invasion dynamics were largely restricted to large rivers, leaving out smaller rivers that commonly harbour high freshwater biodiversity. Moreover, biodiversity time series have rarely been used to investigate invasions across larger spatial-temporal scales, limiting our understanding of aquatic invasion dynamics. Here, we used 6067 benthic invertebrate samples from streams and small rivers from the EU Water Framework Directive monitoring program collected across Central Europe between 2000 and 2018 to assess temporal changes to benthic invertebrate communities as well as non-native species. We assessed invasion rates according to temperature, precipitation, elevation, latitude, longitude, and stream type. Overall, average daily temperatures significantly increased by 0.02 °C per annum (0.34 °C in total) while annual precipitation significantly decreased by 0.01 mm per annum (-67.8 mm over the study period), paralleled with significant increases in overall species richness (12.3 %) and abundance (14.9 %); water quality was relatively stable. Non-native species richness increased 5-fold and abundance 40-fold, indicating an ongoing community shift from native to non-native species. The observed increase in invasions was stronger in low mountain rivers compared to low mountain streams, with the share of non-native species abundance and richness declining with increasing elevation and latitude but increasing with temperature. We found thermophilic non-native species invasion success was greatest in larger sized streams, at lower latitudes, lower elevations and higher temperatures. These results indicate that widespread environmental characteristics (i.e., temperature) could heighten invasion success and confer refuge effects (i.e., elevation and latitude) in higher sites. High altitude and latitude environments should be prioritised for prevention efforts, while biosecurity and management should be improved in lowland areas subject to greater anthropogenic pressure, where non-native introductions are more likely.

From laboratory to field: laboratory-measured pesticide resistance reflects outcomes of field-based control in the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor

Resistance to pesticides is typically identified via laboratory bioassays after field control failures are observed, but the results of such assays are rarely validated through experiments under field conditions. Such validation is particularly important when only a low-to-moderate level of resistance is detected in the laboratory. Here we undertake such a validation for organophosphate resistance in the agricultural pest mite Halotydeus destructor, in which low-to-moderate levels of resistance to organophosphorus pesticides have evolved in Australia. Using data from laboratory bioassays, we show that resistance to the organophosphate chlorpyrifos is higher (around 100-fold) than resistance to another organophosphate, omethoate (around 7-fold). In field trials, both these chemicals were found to effectively control pesticide-susceptible populations of H. destructor. However, when applied to a resistant mite population in the field, the effectiveness of chlorpyrifos was substantially decreased. In contrast, omethoate remained effective when tested alone or as a mixture with chlorpyrifos. We also show that two novel (non-pesticide) treatments, molasses and wood vinegar, are ineffective in controlling H. destructor when sprayed to pasture fields at rates of 4 L/ha. These findings suggest a close link between levels of resistance quantified through laboratory bioassays and the field effectiveness of pesticides; however, in the case of H. destructor, this does not necessarily mean all field populations possessing organophosphate resistance will respond similarly given the potentially complex nature of the underlying resistance mechanism(s).

An aggressive nonconsumptive effect mediates pest control and multipredator interactions in a coffee agroecosystem

Natural pest control is an alternative to pesticide use in agriculture, and may help to curb insect declines and promote crop production. Nonconsumptive interactions in natural pest control that historically have received far less attention than consumptive interactions, may have distinct impacts on pest damage suppression and may also mediate positive multipredator interactions. Additionally, when nonconsumptive effects are driven by natural enemy aggression, variation in alternative resources for enemies may impact the strength of pest control. Here we study control of the coffee berry borer (CBB), Hypothenemus hampei, by a keystone arboreal ant species, Azteca sericeasur, which exhibits a nonconsumptive effect on CBB by throwing them off coffee plants. We conducted two experiments to investigate: (1) if the strength of this behavior is driven by spatial or temporal variability in scale insect density (an alternative resource that Azteca tends for honeydew), (2) if this behavior mediates positive interactions between Azteca and other ground-foraging ants, and (3) the effect this behavior has on the overall suppression of CBB damage in multipredator scenarios. Our behavioral experiment showed that nearly all interactions between Azteca and CBB are nonconsumptive and that this behavior occurs more frequently in the dry season and with higher densities of scale insects on coffee branches. Our multipredator experiment revealed that borers thrown off coffee plants by Azteca can survive and potentially damage other nearby plants but may be suppressed by ground-foraging ants. Although we found no non-additive effects between Azteca and ground-foraging ants on overall CBB damage, together, both species resulted in the lowest level of plant damage with the subsequent reduction in "spillover" damage caused by thrown CBB, indicating spatial complementarity between predators. These results present a unique case of natural pest control, in which damage suppression is driven almost exclusively by nonconsumptive natural enemy aggression, as opposed to consumption or prey behavioral changes. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the variability that may occur in nonconsumptive pest control interactions when natural enemy aggressive behavior is impacted by alternative resources, and also show how these nonconsumptive effects can mediate positive interactions between natural enemies to enhance overall crop damage reduction.

No net effect of host density on tick-borne disease hazard due to opposing roles of vector amplification and pathogen dilution

To better understand vector-borne disease dynamics, knowledge of the ecological interactions between animal hosts, vectors, and pathogens is needed. The effects of hosts on disease hazard depends on their role in driving vector abundance and their ability to transmit pathogens. Theoretically, a host that cannot transmit a pathogen could dilute pathogen prevalence but increase disease hazard if it increases vector population size. In the case of Lyme disease, caused by Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. and vectored by Ixodid ticks, deer may have dual opposing effects on vectors and pathogen: deer drive tick population densities but do not transmit B. burgdorferi s.l. and could thus decrease or increase disease hazard. We aimed to test for the role of deer in shaping Lyme disease hazard by using a wide range of deer densities while taking transmission host abundance into account. We predicted that deer increase nymphal tick abundance while reducing pathogen prevalence. The resulting impact of deer on disease hazard will depend on the relative strengths of these opposing effects. We conducted a cross-sectional survey across 24 woodlands in Scotland between 2017 and 2019, estimating host (deer, rodents) abundance, questing Ixodes ricinus nymph density, and B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence at each site. As predicted, deer density was positively associated with nymph density and negatively with nymphal infection prevalence. Overall, these two opposite effects canceled each other out: Lyme disease hazard did not vary with increasing deer density. This demonstrates that, across a wide range of deer and rodent densities, the role of deer in amplifying tick densities cancels their effect of reducing pathogen prevalence. We demonstrate how noncompetent host density has little effect on disease hazard even though they reduce pathogen prevalence, because of their role in increasing vector populations. These results have implications for informing disease mitigation strategies, especially through host management.

Variable seed bed microsite conditions and light influence germination in Australian winter annuals

Environmentally cued germination may play an important role in promoting coexistence in Mediterranean annual plant systems if it causes niche differentiation across heterogeneous microsite conditions. In this study, we tested how microsite conditions experienced by seeds in the field and light conditions in the laboratory influenced germination in 12 common annual plant species occurring in the understorey of the York gum-jam woodlands in southwest Western Australia. Specifically, we hypothesized that if germination promotes spatial niche differentiation, then we should observe species-specific germination responses to light. In addition, we hypothesized that species' laboratory germination response may depend on the microsite conditions experienced by seeds while buried. We tested the laboratory germination response of seeds under diurnally fluctuating light and complete darkness, which were collected from microsites spanning local-scale environmental gradients known to influence community structure in this system. We found that seeds of 6 out of the 12 focal species exhibited significant positive germination responses to light, but that the magnitude of these responses varied greatly with the relative light requirement for germination ranging from 0.51 to 0.86 for these species. In addition, germination increased significantly across a gradient of canopy cover for two species, but we found little evidence to suggest that species' relative light requirement for germination varied depending on seed bank microsite conditions. Our results suggest that variability in light availability may promote coexistence in this system and that the microsite conditions seeds experience in the intra-growing season period can further nuance species germination behaviour.

Beetle diversity is higher in sunny forests due to higher microclimatic heterogeneity in deadwood

Microclimate is a crucial driver of saproxylic beetle assemblages, with more species often found in sunny forests than in shady ones. Whether this pattern is caused by a higher detectability due to increased beetle activity under sunny conditions or a greater diversity of beetles emerging from sun-exposed deadwood remains unclear. This study examined whether sun exposure leads to higher microclimatic heterogeneity in deadwood and whether this drives beetle diversity in deadwood logs and at forest stand scale. Saproxylic beetles were sampled at the stand scale using flight-interception traps and at object scale using stem-emergence traps on deadwood logs at the same site. The variability in wood surface temperature was measured on single logs and between logs as a proxy for microclimatic heterogeneity in deadwood. Abundance in sunny forests was higher at the stand scale, and in shady forests at the object scale. The estimated number of species was higher in sunny forests at both scales and correlated positively with temperature variability on single logs and between logs at the stand scale and, albeit weakly, with temperature variability on single logs at the object scale. Gamma-diversity, and thus beta-diversity, across logs at the object scale was higher in sunny forests. These findings indicate that sun exposure promotes saproxylic beetle diversity due to higher microclimatic heterogeneity within and between deadwood logs. Our study therefore corroborates previous research demonstrating the importance of canopy cover and microclimate for forest biodiversity.

The recovery of functional diversity with restoration

Ecological restoration aims at recovering biodiversity in degraded ecosystems, and it is commonly assessed via species richness. However, it is unclear whether increasing species richness in a site also recovers its functional diversity, which has been shown to be a better representation of ecosystem functioning. We conducted a quantitative synthesis of 30 restoration projects and tested whether restoration improves functional diversity. We compared actively and passively restored sites with degraded and reference sites with respect to four key measures of functional diversity (richness, evenness, dispersion and functional turnover) and two measures of species diversity (richness and evenness). We separately analyzed longitudinal studies (which monitor degraded, reference and restored sites through time) and space-for-time substitutions (which compare at one point in time degraded and reference sites with restored sites of different ages). Space-for-time studies suggested that species and functional diversity improved over time. However, replicated longitudinal data showed no sustained benefits of active or passive restoration for functional diversity measures, relative to degraded sites. This could suggest that the positive results in space-for-time designs may have been unreliable, but the relative short duration of longitudinal studies suggests a need for longer-term longitudinal research to robustly demonstrate the absence of any effect. These differences across study designs may explain the variable results found in recent studies directly measuring the response of functional diversity to restoration. We recommend that future assessments of ecological community dynamics include control sites in monitoring, to ensure the consequences of treatments, including but not limited to restoration, are correctly partitioned from unassisted temporal changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Experimental evidence for opposing effects of high deer density on tick-borne pathogen prevalence and hazard

BACKGROUND

Identifying the mechanisms driving disease risk is challenging for multi-host pathogens, such as Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.), the tick-borne bacteria causing Lyme disease. Deer are tick reproduction hosts but do not transmit B. burgdorferi s.l., whereas rodents and birds are competent transmission hosts. Here, we use a long-term deer exclosure experiment to test three mechanisms for how high deer density might shape B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence in ticks: increased prevalence due to higher larval tick densities facilitating high transmission on rodents (M1); alternatively, reduced B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence because more larval ticks feed on deer rather than transmission-competent rodents (dilution effect) (M2), potentially due to ecological cascades, whereby higher deer grazing pressure shortens vegetation which decreases rodent abundance thus reducing transmission (M3).

METHODS

In a large enclosure where red deer stags were kept at high density (35.5 deer km^-2), we used an experimental design consisting of eight plots of 0.23 ha, four of which were fenced to simulate the absence of deer and four that were accessible to deer. In each plot we measured the density of questing nymphs and nymphal infection prevalence in spring, summer and autumn, and quantified vegetation height and density, and small mammal abundance.

RESULTS

Prevalence tended to be lower, though not conclusively so, in high deer density plots compared to exclosures (predicted prevalence of 1.0% vs 2.2%), suggesting that the dilution and cascade mechanisms might outweigh the increased opportunities for transmission mechanism. Presence of deer at high density led to shorter vegetation and fewer rodents, consistent with an ecological cascade. However, Lyme disease hazard (density of infected I. ricinus nymphs) was five times higher in high deer density plots due to tick density being 18 times higher.

CONCLUSIONS

High densities of tick reproduction hosts such as deer can drive up vector-borne disease hazard, despite the potential to simultaneously reduce pathogen prevalence. This has implications for environmental pathogen management and for deer management, although the impact of intermediate deer densities now needs testing.

Methods to evaluate the effectiveness of advanced stop lines for motorcycles in improving road safety

In Barcelona, Advanced Stop Lines (ASL) for motorcycles, were implemented since 2009. This paper aims to describe the process followed in determining the best statistical model to analyse the effectiveness of ASL in preventing road traffic injury collisions. A quasi-experimental design of an evaluation study of an intervention with comparison group was performed.•

The starting model is the Poisson regression model, including type of area (ASL, comparison zone), period (pre and post-intervention), linear trend of the number of collisions, period and type of area interaction, as explanatory variables.

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Various models are tested to correct existing overdispersion in the starting model: Poisson -Lognormal, Poisson- Gamma, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle model with Poisson distribution and with Negative Binomial distribution. To select the best model the Akaike Information Criterion is used. The final model is the Poisson-lognormal, adding the area as random factor (for each area repeated measures for different years are available).

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The coefficients of the model parameters are interpreted in terms of relatives risks (RR), and the percentage change in the number of collisions is estimated in the post regards the pre-intervention period, from the RRs (- (1-RR)), to quantify the impact of ASL. The interaction allows assessment of whether the effect of the intervention differed between ASL and comparison zones.

Ixodes ricinus and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in the Royal Parks of London, UK

Assessing the risk of tick-borne disease in areas with high visitor numbers is important from a public health perspective. Evidence suggests that tick presence, density, infection prevalence and the density of infected ticks can vary between habitats within urban green space, suggesting that the risk of Lyme borreliosis transmission can also vary. This study assessed nymph density, Borrelia prevalence and the density of infected nymphs across a range of habitat types in nine parks in London which receive millions of visitors each year. Ixodes ricinus were found in only two of the nine locations sampled, and here they were found in all types of habitat surveyed. Established I. ricinus populations were identified in the two largest parks, both of which had resident free-roaming deer populations. Highest densities of nymphs (15.68 per 100 m²) and infected nymphs (1.22 per 100 m²) were associated with woodland and under canopy habitats in Richmond Park, but ticks infected with Borrelia were found across all habitat types surveyed. Nymphs infected with Borrelia (7.9%) were only reported from Richmond Park, where Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and Borrelia afzelii were identified as the dominant genospecies. Areas with short grass appeared to be less suitable for ticks and maintaining short grass in high footfall areas could be a good strategy for reducing the risk of Lyme borreliosis transmission to humans in such settings. In areas where this would create conflict with existing practices which aim to improve and/or meet historic landscape, biodiversity and public access goals, promoting public health awareness of tick-borne disease risks could also be utilised.

Emergence of Lyme Disease on Treeless Islands, Scotland, United Kingdom

Lyme disease is usually associated with forested habitats but has recently emerged on treeless islands in the Western Isles of Scotland. The environmental and human components of Lyme disease risk in open habitats remain unknown. We quantified the environmental hazard and risk factors for human tick bite exposure among treeless islands with low and high Lyme disease incidence in the Western Isles. We found a higher prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato–infected ticks on high-incidence than on low-incidence islands (6.4% vs. 0.7%); we also found that residents of high-incidence islands reported increased tick bite exposure. Most tick bites (72.7%) occurred <1 km from the home, including many in home gardens. Residents of high Lyme disease incidence islands reported increasing problems with ticks; many suggested changing deer distribution as a potential driver. We highlight the benefits of an integrated approach in understanding the factors that contribute to Lyme disease emergence.

Abundance, not diversity, of host beetle communities determines abundance and diversity of parasitoids in deadwood

Most parasites and parasitoids are adapted to overcome defense mechanisms of their specific hosts and hence colonize a narrow range of host species. Accordingly, an increase in host functional or phylogenetic dissimilarity is expected to increase the species diversity of parasitoids. However, the local diversity of parasitoids may be driven by the accessibility and detectability of hosts, both increasing with increasing host abundance. Yet, the relative importance of these two mechanisms remains unclear. We parallelly reared communities of saproxylic beetle as potential hosts and associated parasitoid Hymenoptera from experimentally felled trees. The dissimilarity of beetle communities was inferred from distances in seven functional traits and from their evolutionary ancestry. We tested the effect of host abundance, species richness, functional, and phylogenetic dissimilarities on the abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity of parasitoids. Our results showed an increase of abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity of parasitoids with increasing beetle abundance. Additionally, abundance of parasitoids increased with increasing species richness of beetles. However, functional and phylogenetic dissimilarity showed no effect on the diversity of parasitoids. Our results suggest that the local diversity of parasitoids, of ephemeral and hidden resources like saproxylic beetles, is highest when resources are abundant and thereby detectable and accessible. Hence, in some cases, resources do not need to be diverse to promote parasitoid diversity.

Level and spatial pattern of overstory retention impose trade-offs for regenerating and retained trees

Variable retention (VR) has been adopted globally as an alternative to more intensive forms of regeneration harvest. By retaining live trees within harvest units, VR seeks balance among the commodity, ecological, and aesthetic values of managed forests. Achieving these multiple, often competing objectives requires an understanding of how level and spatial pattern of retention shape the abundance, growth, and mortality of regenerating and retained trees. Using long-term (18-19 yr) data from a regional-scale VR experiment, we explore the individual and interactive effects of retention level (15% vs. 40% of initial basal area) and pattern (dispersed vs. aggregated) on the post-harvest dynamics of forests of differing structure and seral composition. Level and pattern of retention imposed trade-offs for the density and growth of regenerating trees (≥0.1 m tall, <5 cm dbh) and ingrowth (trees attaining 5 cm during the study). Greater retention led to greater density of late-seral regeneration, but lower density of early-seral ingrowth, and slower growth of late-seral ingrowth. Dispersed retention enhanced the density of early- and late-seral regeneration (compared to aggregated treatments), but reduced the growth of early-seral ingrowth. We also observed trade-offs for retained trees. Lower retention enhanced the growth of smaller trees (<25 cm dbh), particularly in dispersed settings, but reduced the survival of larger trees, which were more susceptible to windthrow. Greater retention reduced the growth, but enhanced the survival of smaller trees. Pattern imposed similar trade-offs, with dispersed retention enhancing growth, but reducing survival of small trees. Finally, level and pattern resulted in trade-offs for productivity of regenerating vs. retained-tree cohorts. Ingrowth productivity was greater at lower retention and in aggregated treatments; retained-tree productivity was greater at higher retention and in dispersed treatments. Our results provide a unique, long-term perspective on the sensitivity of tree regeneration, growth, and mortality to key structural elements of VR systems. Strong responses to level and pattern of retention produce trade-offs for different ecological or resource objectives. Balancing these objectives may require the combined use of aggregates, dispersed retention, and clearings, to mimic the spatial heterogeneity of habitats, physical structures, and resource conditions that are produced by natural disturbances.

Social network dynamics predict hormone levels and behavior in a highly social cichlid fish

Group living confers many benefits while simultaneously exposing group members to intense competition. An individual's rise to prominence within a group may conflict with the overall functioning of the group. There is therefore a complex and dynamic relationship between the behavioral displays that directly benefit an individual, the consequences of these actions for the community, and how they feed back on individual-level fitness. We used a network analysis approach to study the link between behavior, social stability, and steroid hormone levels in replicate communities of the cichlid fish, Astatotilapia burtoni, which live in social groups with a dominance hierarchy. We demonstrate that individual behavior can have direct and indirect effects on the behavior of others while also affecting group characteristics. Our results show that A. burtoni males form stable social networks, where dominant individuals act as hubs for social interactions. However, there was variation in the temporal stability in these networks, and this variation in stability impacted hormone levels. Dominant males had higher testosterone levels, however, the differences in testosterone levels between dominant and subordinate males were greatest in stable communities. In sum, our analyses provide novel insights into the processes by which individual and community properties interact.

Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.

Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle

Numerous studies have documented changes in the seasonal timing of organisms' growth and reproduction in response to climate warming. These changes correlate with documented changes in species' abundance, but mechanisms linking these trends remain elusive. We investigated the joint demographic effects of advanced reproductive phenology and warming on a globally invasive plant (Carduus nutans) in a field experiment, documenting a substantial shift toward completion of the life cycle at younger ages. Demographic modeling projected 71% of warmed individuals flower as annuals, compared to 61% under current conditions. As this species only reproduces once, this represents a major acceleration of the life cycle. We project a 15% increase in this invader's population growth rate. We show that rising temperatures accelerate this invasive species' population growth by increasing the average size of reproducing individuals; increasing the proportion of individuals that survive to reproduce; and increasing the fraction that reproduce as annuals. Major increases in population growth in this, and potentially many other, invasive species will threaten food security and require careful planning to avoid significant environmental and economic impacts.

Does diversity beget diversity in microbiomes?

Microbes are embedded in complex communities where they engage in a wide array of intra- and inter-specific interactions. The extent to which these interactions drive or impede microbiome diversity is not well understood. Historically, two contrasting hypotheses have been suggested to explain how species interactions could influence diversity. 'Ecological Controls' (EC) predicts a negative relationship, where the evolution or migration of novel types is constrained as niches become filled. In contrast, 'Diversity Begets Diversity' (DBD) predicts a positive relationship, with existing diversity promoting the accumulation of further diversity via niche construction and other interactions. Using high-throughput amplicon sequencing data from the Earth Microbiome Project, we provide evidence that DBD is strongest in low-diversity biomes, but weaker in more diverse biomes, consistent with biotic interactions initially favouring the accumulation of diversity (as predicted by DBD). However, as niches become increasingly filled, diversity hits a plateau (as predicted by EC).

Resource-enhancing global changes drive a whole-ecosystem shift to faster cycling but decrease diversity

Many global changes take the form of resource enhancements that have potential to transform multiple aspects of ecosystems from slower to faster cycling, including a suite of both above- and belowground variables. We developed a novel analytic approach to measure integrated ecosystem responses to resource-enhancing global changes, and how such whole ecosystem slow-to-fast transitions are linked to diversity and exotic invasions in real-world ecosystems. We asked how 5-yr experimental rainfall and nutrient enhancements in a natural grassland system affected 16 ecosystem functions, pools, and stoichiometry variables considered to indicate slow vs. fast cycling. We combined these metrics into a novel index we termed "slow-fast multifunctionality" and assessed its relationship to plant community diversity and exotic plant dominance. Nutrient and rainfall addition interacted to affect average slow-fast multifunctionality. Nutrient addition alone pushed the system toward faster cycling, but this effect weakened with the joint addition of rainfall and nutrients. Variables associated with soil nutrient pools and cycling most strongly contributed to this antagonistic interaction. Nutrient and water addition together, respectively, had additive or synergistic effects on plant trait composition and productivity, demonstrating divergence of above- and belowground ecosystem responses. Our novel metric of faster cycling was strongly associated with decreased plant species richness and increased exotic species dominance. These results demonstrate the breadth of interacting community and ecosystem changes that ensue when resource limitation is relaxed.

Does latitudinal migration represent an advantage in the decrease of ectoparasitic loads in Leptonycteris yerbabuenae (Chiroptera)?

Latitudinal migration increases fitness of migrants by allowing them to exploit favorable conditions in nonadjacent geographic regions. Other consequences also may follow, such as interactions with parasites. Migrants may have lower parasite prevalence and abundance than resident individuals because of their ability to abandon infested areas or due to mortality of highly infested hosts. To further understand whether variation in ectoparasite loads is influenced by migration, we investigated whether prevalence and abundance of two species of obligate ectoparasites, the wing mite Periglischrus paracaligus (Mesostigmata: Spinturnicidae) and the bat fly Nycterophilia coxata (Diptera: Streblidae, Nycterophiliinae), of the lesser long-nosed bat, Leptonycteris yerbabuenae, varied between migratory and resident populations throughout their range in Mexico. We examined the presence or absence of migratory behavior, as well as sex and reproductive status of the host because ectoparasitism differentially affects the sexes. Our results showed that the prevalence of both ectoparasites did not vary between migrant and resident females or males, but abundance of the wing mite P. paracaligus was lower in migrant females compared with resident females, with an important influence from the reproductive status of the host. A partial negative relationship between ectoparasite loads and latitudinal migration therefore was demonstrated.

Responses of sympatric canids to human development revealed through citizen science

Measuring wildlife responses to anthropogenic activities often requires long-term, large-scale datasets that are difficult to collect. This is particularly true for rare or cryptic species, which includes many mammalian carnivores. Citizen science, in which members of the public participate in scientific work, can facilitate collection of large datasets while increasing public awareness of wildlife research and conservation. Hunters provide unique benefits for citizen science given their knowledge and interest in outdoor activities. We examined how anthropogenic changes to land cover impacted relative abundance of two sympatric canids, coyote (Canis latrans), and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) at a large spatial scale. In order to assess how land cover affected canids at this scale, we used citizen science data from bow hunter sighting logs collected throughout New York State, USA, during 2004-2017. We found that the two species had contrasting responses to development, with red foxes positively correlated and coyotes negatively correlated with the percentage of low-density development. Red foxes also responded positively to agriculture, but less so when agricultural habitat was fragmented. Agriculture provides food and denning resources for red foxes, whereas coyotes may select forested areas for denning. Though coyotes and red foxes compete in areas of sympatry, we did not find a relationship between species abundance, likely a consequence of the coarse spatial resolution used. Red foxes may be able to coexist with coyotes by altering their diets and habitat use, or by maintaining territories in small areas between coyote territories. Our study shows the value of citizen science, and particularly hunters, in collection of long-term data across large areas (i.e., the entire state of New York) that otherwise would unlikely be obtained.

Identifying Environmental Risk Factors for Louping Ill Virus Seroprevalence in Sheep and the Potential to Inform Wildlife Management Policy

Identifying the risk factors for disease is crucial for developing policy and strategies for controlling exposure to pathogens. However, this is often challenging, especially in complex disease systems, such as vector-borne diseases with multiple hosts and other environmental drivers. Here we combine seroprevalence data with GIS-based environmental variables to identify the environmental risk factors associated with an endemic tick-borne pathogen—louping ill virus—in sheep in Scotland. Higher seroprevalences were associated with (i) upland/moorland habitats, in accordance with what we predicted from the habitat preferences of alternative LIV transmission hosts (such as red grouse), (ii) areas of higher deer density, which supports predictions from previous theoretical models, since deer are the key Ixodes ricinus tick reproduction host in this system, and (iii) a warmer climate, concurring with our current knowledge of how temperature affects tick activity and development rates. The implications for policy include adopting increased disease management and awareness in high risk habitats and in the presence of alternative LIV hosts (e.g., grouse) and tick hosts (especially deer). These results can also inform deer management policy, especially where there may be conflict between contrasting upland management objectives, for example, revenue from deer hunting vs. sheep farmers.

Older mothers produce more successful daughters

Annual reproductive success and senescence patterns vary substantially among individuals in the wild. However, it is still seldom considered that senescence may not only affect an individual but also affect age-specific reproductive success in its offspring, generating transgenerational reproductive senescence. We used long-term data from wild yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) living in two different elevational environments to quantify age-specific reproductive success of daughters born to mothers differing in age. Contrary to prediction, daughters born to older mothers had greater annual reproductive success on average than daughters born to younger mothers, and this translated into greater lifetime reproductive success. However, in the favorable lower elevation environment, daughters born to older mothers also had greater age-specific decreases in annual reproductive success. In the harsher higher elevation environment on the other hand, daughters born to older mothers tended to die before reaching ages at which such senescent decreases could be observed. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating environment-specific transgenerational parent age effects on adult offspring age-specific life-history traits to fully understand the substantial variation observed in senescence patterns in wild populations.

Experimental study of micro-habitat selection by ixodid ticks feeding on avian hosts

Mechanisms of on-host habitat selection of parasites are important to the understanding of host-parasite interactions and evolution. To this end, it is important to separate the factors driving parasite micro-habitat selection from those resulting from host anti-parasite behaviour. We experimentally investigated whether tick infestation patterns on songbirds are the result of an active choice by the ticks themselves, or the outcome of songbird grooming behaviour. Attachment patterns of three ixodid tick species with different ecologies and host specificities were studied on avian hosts. Ixodes arboricola, Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes frontalis were put on the head, belly and back of adult great tits (Parus major) and adult domestic canaries (Serinus canaria domestica) which were either restricted or not in their grooming capabilities. Without exception, ticks were eventually found on a bird's head. When we gave ticks full opportunities to attach on other body parts - in the absence of host grooming - they showed lower attachment success. Moreover, ticks moved from these other body parts to the host's head when given the opportunity. This study provides evidence that the commonly observed pattern of ticks feeding on songbirds' heads is the result of an adaptive behavioural strategy. Experimental data on a novel host species, the domestic canary, and a consistent number of published field observations, strongly support this hypothesis. We address some proximate and ultimate causes that may explain parasite preference for this body part in songbirds. The link found between parasite micro-habitat preference and host anti-parasite behaviour provides further insight into the mechanisms driving ectoparasite aggregation, which is important for the population dynamics of hosts, ectoparasites and the micro-pathogens for which they are vectors.

Habitat and host factors associated with liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) diagnoses in wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) in the Scottish Highlands

BACKGROUND

Red deer (Cervus elaphus) are a common wild definitive host for liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) that have been the subject of limited diagnostic surveillance. This study aimed to explore the extent to which coprological diagnoses for F. hepatica in red deer in the Scottish Highlands, Scotland, are associated with variability among hosts and habitats.

METHODS

Our analyses were based on coproantigen ELISA diagnoses derived from faecal samples that were collected from carcasses of culled deer on nine hunting estates during two sampling seasons. Sampling locations were used as centroids about which circular home ranges were quantified. Data were stratified by season, and associations between host, hydrological, land cover and meteorological variables and binary diagnoses during 2013-2014 (n = 390) were explored by mixed effect logistic regression. The ability of our model to predict diagnoses relative to that which would be expected by chance was quantified, and data collected during 2012-2013 (n = 289) were used to assess model transferability.

RESULTS

During 2013-2014, habitat and host characteristics explained 28% of variation in diagnoses, whereby half of the explained variation was attributed to differences among estates. The probability of a positive diagnosis was positively associated with the length of streams in the immediate surroundings of each sampling location, but no non-zero relationships were found for land cover or lifetime average weather variables. Regardless of habitat, the probability of a positive diagnosis remained greatest for males, although males were always sampled earlier in the year than females. A slight decrease in prediction efficacy occurred when our model was used to predict diagnoses for out-of-sample data.

CONCLUSIONS

We are cautious to extrapolate our findings geographically, owing to a large proportion of variation attributable to overarching differences among estates. Nevertheless, the temporal transferability of our model is encouraging. While we did not identify any non-zero relationship between meteorological variables and probability of diagnosis, we attribute this (in part) to limitations of interpolated meteorological data. Further study into non-independent diagnoses within estates and differences among estates in terms of deer management, would improve our understanding of F. hepatica prevalence in wild deer.