LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption.

METHODOLOGY

We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period.

RESULTS

Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%.

CONCLUSION

Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

A dynamic game of lymphatic filariasis prevention by voluntary use of insecticide treated nets

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 with a goal to keep the prevalence of LF infections under the 1% threshold. While mass drug administration (MDA) is a primary strategy recommended by WHO, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) plays a crucial role as an alternative strategy when MDA cannot be used. In this paper, we use imitation dynamics to incorporate human behavior and voluntary use of ITN into the compartmental epidemiological model of LF transmission. We find the equilibrium states of the dynamics and the ITN usage as it depends on epidemiological parameters and the cost of ITNs. We investigate the conditions under which the voluntary use of ITNs can keep the LF prevalence under the 1% threshold. We found that when the cost of using the ITNs is about 105 smaller than the perceived cost of LF, then the voluntary use of ITNs will eliminate LF as a public health concern. Furthermore, when the ITNs are given away for free, our model predicts that over 80% of the population will use them which would eliminate LF completely in regions where Anopheles are the primary vectors.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.

METHODS

Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level.

RESULTS

Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames.

METHODS

Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting.

RESULTS

For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

How correlations between treatment access and surveillance inclusion impact neglected tropical disease monitoring and evaluation-A simulated study

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) largely impact marginalised communities living in tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration is the leading intervention method for five NTDs; however, it is known that there is lack of access to treatment for some populations and demographic groups. It is also likely that those individuals without access to treatment are excluded from surveillance. It is important to consider the impacts of this on the overall success, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of intervention programmes. We use a detailed individual-based model of the infection dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to investigate the impact of excluded, untreated, and therefore unobserved groups on the true versus observed infection dynamics and subsequent intervention success. We simulate surveillance in four groups-the whole population eligible to receive treatment, the whole eligible population with access to treatment, the TAS focus of six- and seven-year-olds, and finally in >20-year-olds. We show that the surveillance group under observation has a significant impact on perceived dynamics. Exclusion to treatment and surveillance negatively impacts the probability of reaching public health goals, though in populations that do reach these goals there are no signals to indicate excluded groups. Increasingly restricted surveillance groups over-estimate the efficacy of MDA. The presence of non-treated groups cannot be inferred when surveillance is only occurring in the group receiving treatment.

Sensitivity analysis and parameters estimation for the transmission of lymphatic filariasis

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease which poses public health concern and socio-economic challenges in developing and low-income countries. In this paper, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to generate data by white noise and use least square method to estimate parameter values. The validity of estimated parameter values is tested by Gaussian distribution method. The residuals of model outputs are normally distributed and hence can be used to study the dynamics of Lymphatic filariasis. After deriving the basic reproduction number, R 0 by the next generation matrix approach, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient is employed to explore which parameters significantly affect and most influential to the model outputs. The analysis for equilibrium states shows that the Lymphatic free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less a unity and endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 ≥ 1 . The findings reveal that rate of human infection, recruitment rate of mosquitoes increase the average new infections for Lymphatic filariasis. Moreover, asymptomatic individuals contribute significantly in the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis.

Mathematical study of the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis infection via fractional-calculus

The infection of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is the primary cause of poverty and disability in individuals living with the disease. Many organizations globally are working toward mitigating the disease's impact and enhancing the quality of life of the affected patients. It is paramount to inspect the transmission pattern of this infection to provide effective interventions for its prevention and control. Here, we formulate an epidemic model for the progression process of LF with acute and chronic infection in the fractional framework. The basic concept of the novel Atangana-Baleanu operator is presented for the analysis of suggested system. We determine the basic reproduction number of the system via the approach of next-generation matrix and investigate the equilibria of the system for stability analysis. We have shown the impact of input factors on the outcomes of reproduction parameter with the help of partial rank correlation coefficient approach and visualize the most critical factors. To conceptualize the time series analysis of the suggested dynamics, we propose utilizing a numerical approach. The solution pathways of the system are illustrated to demonstrate how different settings affect the system. We demonstrate the dynamics of the infection numerically to educate the policy makers and health authorities about the mechanisms necessary for management and control.

Comparing antigenaemia- and microfilaraemia as criteria for stopping decisions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in Africa

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the main strategy towards lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination. Progress is monitored by assessing microfilaraemia (Mf) or circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) prevalence, the latter being more practical for field surveys. The current criterion for stopping MDA requires <2% CFA prevalence in 6- to 7-year olds, but this criterion is not evidence-based. We used mathematical modelling to investigate the validity of different thresholds regarding testing method and age group for African MDA programmes using ivermectin plus albendazole.

METHODOLGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We verified that our model captures observed patterns in Mf and CFA prevalence during annual MDA, assuming that CFA tests are positive if at least one adult worm is present. We then assessed how well elimination can be predicted from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year-old children or from Mf or CFA prevalence in the 5+ or 15+ population, and determined safe (>95% positive predictive value) thresholds for stopping MDA. The model captured trends in Mf and CFA prevalences reasonably well. Elimination cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year olds. Resurgence may still occur if all children are antigen-negative, irrespective of the number tested. Mf-based criteria also show unfavourable results (PPV <95% or unpractically low threshold). CFA prevalences in the 5+ or 15+ population are the best predictors, and post-MDA threshold values for stopping MDA can be as high as 10% for 15+. These thresholds are robust for various alternative assumptions regarding baseline endemicity, biological parameters and sampling strategies.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

For African areas with moderate to high pre-treatment Mf prevalence that have had 6 or more rounds of annual ivermectin/albendazole MDA with adequate coverage, we recommend to adopt a CFA threshold prevalence of 10% in adults (15+) for stopping MDA. This could be combined with Mf testing of CFA positives to ensure absence of a significant Mf reservoir for transmission.

A game-theoretic model of lymphatic filariasis prevention

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a mosquito-borne parasitic neglected tropical disease. In 2000, WHO launched the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) as a public health problem. In 2020, new goals for 2030 were set which includes a reduction to 0 of the total population requiring Mass Drug Administrations (MDA), a primary tool of GPELF. We develop a mathematical model to study what can happen at the end of MDA. We use a game-theoretic approach to assess the voluntary use of insect repellents in the prevention of the spread of LF through vector bites. Our results show that when individuals use what they perceive as optimal levels of protection, the LF incidence rates will become high. This is in striking difference to other vector-borne NTDs such as Chagas or zika. We conclude that the voluntary use of the protection alone will not be enough to keep LF eliminated as a public health problem and a more coordinated effort will be needed at the end of MDA.

Depriving Out-of-School Children of Deworming Tablets for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection in Bangladesh: The Irony of a School-Based Deworming Programme

Since 2008, Bangladesh has had a school-based deworming programme to combat soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection among school-aged children (SACs). Existing programmes have trouble reaching SACs, especially those out-of-school (OSCs). This study evaluated deworming coverage among school going children (SGCs) and OSCs in two Nilphamari sub-districts. It also evaluated community knowledge on STH control and deworming coverage in both areas for all SACs. Saidpur (intervention) and Kishoregonj (control) sub-districts, in Nilphamari, were surveyed in December 2019. The survey included SACs and their parents. Among SGCs, the intervention group (89.0%) had higher deworming coverage than the control group (75.5%). In the intervention group, 59.9% of OSCs received the deworming tablet versus 24.6% in the control group. Community involvement activities including door-to-door visits, courtyard gatherings, and miking benefited both SACs and their primary caregivers. SACs living in the intervention region, awareness of the last pill distribution date, and caregivers observing BRAC workers in action, were linked to SAC deworming coverage. Re-strategizing the deworming programme to include the OSCs is vital and suggests timely action. Building community awareness and periodic epidemiological assessment can further facilitate an improved drug intake.

Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

Background

In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.

Methods

We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.

Results

The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.

Conclusions

In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.

Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)

The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO's NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infections to below 2%. After the threshold is reached, and mass drug administration is stopped, geographically defined evaluation units must pass Transmission Assessment Surveys to demonstrate that transmission has been interrupted. In this study, we use an empirically parameterised stochastic transmission model to investigate the appropriateness of 1% microfilaria-positive prevalence as a stopping threshold, and statistically evaluate how well various monitoring prevalence-thresholds predict elimination or disease resurgence in the future by calculating their predictive value. Our results support the 1% filaremia prevalence target as appropriate stopping criteria. However, because at low prevalence-levels random events dominate the transmission dynamics, we find single prevalence measurements have poor predictive power for predicting resurgence, which suggests alternative criteria for restarting MDA may be beneficial.

Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold

The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.

Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models

Background

With the 2020 target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) approaching, there is an urgent need to assess how long mass drug administration (MDA) programs with annual ivermectin + albendazole (IA) or diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) would still have to be continued, and how elimination can be accelerated. We addressed this using mathematical modeling.

Methods

We used 3 structurally different mathematical models for LF transmission (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, TRANSFIL) to simulate trends in microfilariae (mf) prevalence for a range of endemic settings, both for the current annual MDA strategy and alternative strategies, assessing the required duration to bring mf prevalence below the critical threshold of 1%.

Results

Three annual MDA rounds with IA or DA and good coverage (≥65%) are sufficient to reach the threshold in settings that are currently at mf prevalence <4%, but the required duration increases with increasing mf prevalence. Switching to biannual MDA or employing triple-drug therapy (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole [IDA]) could reduce program duration by about one-third. Optimization of coverage reduces the time to elimination and is particularly important for settings with a history of poorly implemented MDA (low coverage, high systematic noncompliance).

Conclusions

Modeling suggests that, in several settings, current annual MDA strategies will be insufficient to achieve the 2020 LF elimination targets, and programs could consider policy adjustment to accelerate, guided by recent monitoring and evaluation data. Biannual treatment and IDA hold promise in reducing program duration, provided that coverage is good, but their efficacy remains to be confirmed by more extensive field studies.

Mapping the baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis across Nigeria

Introduction

The baseline endemicity profile of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a key benchmark for planning control programmes, monitoring their impact on transmission and assessing the feasibility of achieving elimination. Presented in this work is the modelled serological and parasitological prevalence of LF prior to the scale-up of mass drug administration (MDA) in Nigeria using a machine learning based approach.

Methods

LF prevalence data generated by the Nigeria Lymphatic Filariasis Control Programme during country-wide mapping surveys conducted between 2000 and 2013 were used to build the models. The dataset comprised of 1103 community-level surveys based on the detection of filarial antigenemia using rapid immunochromatographic card tests (ICT) and 184 prevalence surveys testing for the presence of microfilaria (Mf) in blood. Using a suite of climate and environmental continuous gridded variables and compiled site-level prevalence data, a quantile regression forest (QRF) model was fitted for both antigenemia and microfilaraemia LF prevalence. Model predictions were projected across a continuous 5 × 5 km gridded map of Nigeria. The number of individuals potentially infected by LF prior to MDA interventions was subsequently estimated.

Results

Maps presented predict a heterogeneous distribution of LF antigenemia and microfilaraemia in Nigeria. The North-Central, North-West, and South-East regions displayed the highest predicted LF seroprevalence, whereas predicted Mf prevalence was highest in the southern regions. Overall, 8.7 million and 3.3 million infections were predicted for ICT and Mf, respectively.

Conclusions

QRF is a machine learning-based algorithm capable of handling high-dimensional data and fitting complex relationships between response and predictor variables. Our models provide a benchmark through which the progress of ongoing LF control efforts can be monitored.

The roadmap towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis by 2030: insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000 to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem by 1) interrupting transmission through mass drug administration (MDA) and 2) offering basic care to those suffering from lymphoedema or hydrocele due to the infection. Although impressive progress has been made, the initial target year of 2020 will not be met everywhere. The World Health Organization recently proposed 2030 as the new target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. In this letter, LF modelers of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) Modelling Consortium reflect on the proposed targets for 2030 from a quantitative perspective. While elimination as a public health problem seems technically and operationally feasible, it is uncertain whether this will eventually also lead to complete elimination of transmission. The risk of resurgence needs to be mitigated by strong surveillance after stopping interventions and sometimes perhaps additional interventions.

Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python

Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in the data. We develop an adaptive approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit a variety of epidemiologically relevant data with minimal hyper-parameter tuning by using an adaptive tolerance scheme. We implement a novel kernel density estimation scheme to capture both dispersed and multi-dimensional data, and directly compare this technique to standard Bayesian approaches. We then apply the procedure to a complex individual-based simulation of lymphatic filariasis, a human parasitic disease. The procedure and examples are released alongside this article as an open access library, with examples to aid researchers to rapidly fit models to data. This demonstrates that an adaptive ABC scheme with a general summary and distance metric is capable of performing model fitting for a variety of epidemiological data. It also does not require significant theoretical background to use and can be made accessible to the diverse epidemiological research community.

Quantifying the value of surveillance data for improving model predictions of lymphatic filariasis elimination

Background

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to evaluate strategies aiming to achieve the control or elimination of parasitic diseases. Recently, owing to growing realization that process-oriented models are useful for ecological forecasts only if the biological processes are well defined, attention has focused on data assimilation as a means to improve the predictive performance of these models.

Methodology and principal findings

We report on the development of an analytical framework to quantify the relative values of various longitudinal infection surveillance data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) for calibrating three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to achieve parasite elimination in endemic populations. The relative information contribution of site-specific data collected at the time points proposed by the WHO monitoring framework was evaluated using model-data updating procedures, and via calculations of the Shannon information index and weighted variances from the probability distributions of the estimated timelines to parasite extinction made by each model. Results show that data-informed models provided more precise forecasts of elimination timelines in each site compared to model-only simulations. Data streams that included year 5 post-MDA microfilariae (mf) survey data, however, reduced each model’s uncertainty most compared to data streams containing only baseline and/or post-MDA 3 or longer-term mf survey data irrespective of MDA coverage, suggesting that data up to this monitoring point may be optimal for informing the present LF models. We show that the improvements observed in the predictive performance of the best data-informed models may be a function of temporal changes in inter-parameter interactions. Such best data-informed models may also produce more accurate predictions of the durations of drug interventions required to achieve parasite elimination.

Significance

Knowledge of relative information contributions of model only versus data-informed models is valuable for improving the usefulness of LF model predictions in management decision making, learning system dynamics, and for supporting the design of parasite monitoring programmes. The present results further pinpoint the crucial need for longitudinal infection surveillance data for enhancing the precision and accuracy of model predictions of the intervention durations required to achieve parasite elimination in an endemic location.

Although parasite transmission models offer powerful tools for predicting the impacts of interventions, there is growing realization that these models can be useful for this purpose only if their governing biological processes are well defined. Recently, model-data assimilation has been applied to address this problem and improve the performance of process-oriented models for ecological forecasting. Here, we developed an analytical framework that allowed the sequential coupling of the three existing lymphatic filariasis (LF) models with longitudinal infection monitoring data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) to examine the relative value of such data for parameterizing these models and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to break parasite transmission. We found that data-informed models provided more precise and reliable forecasts of elimination timelines in the study sites compared to model-only predictions, and that data collected up to 5 years post-MDA reduced each model’s predictive uncertainty most. We also found that this improved performance may be intriguingly related to temporal changes in system dynamics. Our results underscore the significance of sequential model-data fusion for enhancing the understanding of LF transmission dynamics, design of surveillance, and generation of reliable model predictions for management decision making.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework

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No single mathematical model captures all features of parasite transmission dynamics.

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Multi-model ensemble modelling can overcome biases of single models.

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A multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis models is proposed and evaluated.

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The multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models in predicting infection.

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The ensemble approach may improve use of models to inform disease control policy.

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.

Community-based trial of annual versus biannual single-dose ivermectin plus albendazole against Wuchereria bancrofti infection in human and mosquito populations: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The Global Programme for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) has been in operation since the year 2000, with the aim of eliminating the disease by the year 2020, following five to six rounds of effective annual mass drug administration (MDA). The treatment regimen is ivermectin (IVM) in combination with diethylcarbamazine (DEC) or albendazole (ALB). In Ghana, MDA has been undertaken since 2001. While the disease has been eliminated in many areas, transmission has persisted in some implementation units that had experienced 15 or more rounds of MDA. Thus, new intervention strategies could eliminate residual infection in areas of persistent transmission and speed up the lymphatic filariasis (LF)-elimination process. This study, therefore, seeks to test the hypothesis that biannual treatment of LF-endemic communities will accelerate the interruption of LF in areas of persistent transmission.

METHODS

A cluster randomised trial will be implemented in LF-endemic communities in Ghana. The interventions will be yearly or twice-yearly MDA delivered to entire endemic communities. Allocation to study group will be by clusters identified using the prevalence of LF. Clusters will be randomised to one of two groups: receiving either (1) annual treatment with IVM + ALB or (2) annual MDA with IVM + ALB, followed by an additional MDA 6 months later. The primary outcome measure is the prevalence of LF infection, assessed by four cross-sectional surveys. Entomological assessments will also be undertaken to evaluate the transmission intensity of the disease in the study clusters. Costs and cost-effectiveness will be evaluated. Among a random subsample of participants, microfilaria prevalence will be assessed longitudinally. A nested process evaluation, using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and a stakeholder analysis, will investigate the community acceptability, feasibility and scale-up of each delivery system.

DISCUSSION

It is expected that this study will add to the existing evidence on the need for alternative intervention strategies for the elimination of LF in Ghana and in other African countries that are facing similar challenges or are at the beginning of their LF-elimination programmes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03036059 . Registered on 26 January 2017. Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, ID: PACTR201702002012425 . Registered on 23 February 2017.

Knowledge, attitudes and perceptions regarding lymphatic filariasis: study on systematic noncompliance with mass drug administration

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics, antigenic profile, perceptions, attitudes and practices of individuals who have been systematically non-compliant in mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns targeting lymphatic filariasis, in the municipality of Olinda, State of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil. A pretested questionnaire was used to obtain information on socioenvironmental demographics, perceptions of lymphatic filariasis and MDA, and reasons for systematic noncompliance with treatment. A rapid immunochromatographic test (ICT) was performed during the survey to screen for filariasis. It was found that the survey subjects knew about filariasis and MDA. Filariasis was identified as a disease (86.2%) and 74.4% associated it with the presence of swelling in the legs. About 80% knew about MDA, and the main source of information was healthcare workers (68.3%). For men the main reasons for systematic noncompliance with MDA were that “the individual had not received the medication” (p=0.03) and for women “the individual either feared experiencing adverse reactions”. According to the ICT, the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis was 2%. The most important causes of systematic noncompliance were not receiving the drug and fear of side-effects. For successful implementation of MDA programs, good planning, educational campaigns promoting the benefits of MDA, adoption of measures to minimize the impact of adverse effects and improvement of drug distribution logistics are needed.

Mathematical analysis of a lymphatic filariasis model with quarantine and treatment

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis is a globally neglected tropical parasitic disease which affects individuals of all ages and leads to an altered lymphatic system and abnormal enlargement of body parts.

METHODS

A mathematical model of lymphatic filariaris with intervention strategies is developed and analyzed. Control of infections is analyzed within the model through medical treatment of infected-acute individuals and quarantine of infected-chronic individuals.

RESULTS

We derive the effective reproduction number, [Formula: see text] and its interpretation/investigation suggests that treatment contributes to a reduction in lymphatic filariasis cases faster than quarantine. However, this reduction is greater when the two intervention approaches are applied concurrently.

CONCLUSIONS

Numerical simulations are carried out to monitor the dynamics of the filariasis model sub-populations for various parameter values of the associated reproduction threshold. Lastly, sensitivity analysis on key parameters that drive the disease dynamics is performed in order to identify their relative importance on the disease transmission.

Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration

It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome. We begin by reviewing the current modelling descriptions of this effect and introduce a new modelling framework that can be used to simulate a given level of systematic non-adherence. We formalise the likelihood that people may miss several rounds of treatment using the correlation in the attendance of different rounds. Using two very simplified models of the infection of helminths and non-helminths, respectively, we demonstrate that the modelling description used and the correlation included between treatment rounds can have a profound effect on the time to elimination of disease in a population. It is therefore clear that more detailed coverage data is required to accurately predict the time to disease elimination. We review published coverage data in which individuals are asked how many previous rounds they have attended, and show how this information may be used to assess the level of systematic non-adherence. We note that while the coverages in the data found range from 40.5% to 95.5%, still the correlations found lie in a fairly narrow range (between 0.2806 and 0.5351). This indicates that the level of systematic non-adherence may be similar even in data from different years, countries, diseases and administered drugs.

Modeling the Parasitic Filariasis Spread by Mosquito in Periodic Environment

In this paper a mosquito-borne parasitic infection model in periodic environment is considered. Threshold parameter R0 is given by linear next infection operator, which determined the dynamic behaviors of system. We obtain that when R0 < 1, the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable and when R0 > 1 by Poincaré map we obtain that disease is uniformly persistent. Numerical simulations support the results and sensitivity analysis shows effects of parameters on R0, which provided references to seek optimal measures to control the transmission of lymphatic filariasis.

Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2020. The principal approach used by current programmes is annual mass drug administration with two pairs of drugs with a good safety profile. However, one dose of a triple-drug regimen (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole) has been shown to clear the transmissible stage of the helminth completely in treated individuals. The aim of this study was to use modelling to assess the potential value of mass drug administration with the triple-drug regimen for accelerating elimination of lymphatic filariasis in different epidemiological settings.

METHODS

We used three different transmission models to compare the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to achieve a prevalence of microfilaraemia less than 1% with the triple-drug regimen and with current two-drug regimens.

FINDINGS

In settings with a low baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis (5%), the triple-drug regimen reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to reach the target prevalence by one or two rounds, compared with the two-drug regimen. For areas with higher baseline prevalence (10-40%), the triple-drug regimen strikingly reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed, by about four or five, but only at moderate-to-high levels of population coverage (>65%) and if systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration was low.

INTERPRETATION

Simulation modelling suggests that the triple-drug regimen has potential to accelerate the elimination of lymphatic filariasis if high population coverage of mass drug administration can be achieved and if systematic non-adherence with mass drug administration is low. Future work will reassess these estimates in light of more clinical trial data and to understand the effect on an individual country's programme.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background

India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this.

Methods

We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis.

Results

Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6–7 year-old children).

Conclusion

To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1768-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The health and economic benefits of the global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (2000-2014)

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF), also known as elephantiasis, is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for elimination through a Global Programme to Eliminate LF (GPELF). Between 2000 and 2014, the GPELF has delivered 5.6 billion treatments to over 763 million people. Updating the estimated health and economic benefits of this significant achievement is important in justifying the resources and investment needed for eliminating LF.

METHOD

We combined previously established models to estimate the number of clinical manifestations and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from three benefit cohorts (those protected from acquiring infection, those with subclinical morbidity prevented from progressing and those with clinical disease alleviated). The economic savings associated with this disease prevention was then analysed in the context of prevented medical expenses incurred by LF clinical patients, potential income loss through lost-labour, and prevented costs to the health system to care for affected individuals. The indirect cost estimates were calculated using the human capital approach. A combination of four wage sources was used to estimate the fair market value of time for an agricultural worker with LF infection (to ensure a conservative estimate, the lowest wage value was used).

RESULTS

We projected that due to the first 15 years of the GPELF 36 million clinical cases and 175 (116-250) million DALYs will potentially be averted. It was estimated that due to this notable health impact, US$100.5 billion will potentially be saved over the lifetimes of the benefit cohorts. This total amount results from summing the medical expenses incurred by LF patients (US$3 billion), potential income loss (US$94 billion), and costs to the health system (US$3.5 billion) that were projected to be prevented. The results were subjected to sensitivity analysis and were most sensitive to the assumed percentage of work hours lost for those suffering from chronic disease (changing the total economic benefit between US$69.30-150.7 billion).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the limitations of any such analysis, this study identifies substantial health and economic benefits that have resulted from the first 15 years of the GPELF, and it highlights the value and importance of continued investment in the GPELF.

Endectocide-treated cattle for malaria control: A coupled entomological-epidemiological model

The malaria vector landscape is dynamic and dependence on indoor control tools has drastically affected both species compositions and local mosquito biting behaviours. In the advent of spreading behavioural resilience and physiological resistance to insecticidal nets and house spray, approaches to target more zoophilic, outdoor-biting vectors are being sought with increased urgency. Endectocides are insecticides applied to hosts which are taken up by the vectors during biting, and recent field assessments have demonstrated favourable results of cattle treated with ivermectin, diflubenzuron, eprinomectin and fipronil. Models were constructed to account for the modern, diverse vector feeding behaviours and assess their role in shaping malaria transmission and control with cattle-treated endectocides. Efficacy of this novel approach to malaria control is shown to be strongly dependent not only on intrinsic host preferences of the vector but also on how this preference is augmented by variation in the encounter rates with alternative blood-hosts. Ecological scenarios are presented whereby endectocides used on cattle yield equivalent, and in some cases improved, efficacy over nets and spray in controlling malaria transmission. Interactions between mosquito biting behaviours and relative availabilities of alternative blood-host species have largely been neglected in malaria programmatic strategy but will increasingly underlie sustaining the successes of vector control initiatives.

Compliance with anthelmintic treatment in the neglected tropical diseases control programmes: a systematic review

Preventive chemotherapy (PCT) programmes are used to control five of the highest burden neglected tropical diseases (NTDs): soil-transmitted helminth infections (hookworm, ascariasis, and trichuriasis), lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma. Over the past decade, new resource commitments for the NTDs have enabled such programmes to intensify their control efforts, and for some diseases, to shift from goals of morbidity control to the interruption of transmission and elimination. To successfully eliminate the parasite reservoir, these programmes will undoubtedly require prolonged, high treatment coverage. However, it is important to consider that even when coverage levels reach an acceptable proportion of the target population, there may be a considerable gap between coverage (those who receive the drug) and compliance (those who actually consume the drug)—a topic of fundamental and perhaps underestimated importance. We conducted a systematic review of published literature that investigated compliance to PCT programmes for NTD control and elimination. Databases searched included PubMed/Medline, Web of Knowledge (including Web of Science), OVID, and Scopus. Data were collected on compliance rates, reasons for non-compliance, as well as the heterogeneity of compliance definitions and calculations across programmes and studies. A total of 112 studies were selected for inclusion. The findings of the review revealed substantial heterogeneity across compliance terms and definitions; an imbalance of available studies for particular disease areas and countries; and finally, a lack of longitudinal compliance studies to properly investigate the role of systematic non-compliance. The lack of consistency among reporting of compliance data can result in under- or over-estimating compliance in a population, and therefore has serious implications for setting and reaching elimination targets. Reframing of the guidelines on compliance definitions coupled with an urgent call for longitudinal research in systematic non-compliance should be essential elements in the programmatic shift from control to elimination.

The Role of More Sensitive Helminth Diagnostics in Mass Drug Administration Campaigns: Elimination and Health Impacts

Diagnostics play a crucial role in determining treatment protocols and evaluating success of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes used to control soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). The current diagnostic, Kato-Katz, relies on inexpensive, reusable materials and can be used in the field, but only trained microscopists can read slides. This diagnostic always underestimates the true prevalence of infection, and the accuracy worsens as the true prevalence falls. We investigate how more sensitive diagnostics would impact on the management and life cycle of MDA programmes, including number of mass treatment rounds, health impact, number of unnecessary treatments and probability of elimination. We use an individual-based model of STH transmission within the current World Health Organization (WHO) treatment guidelines which records individual disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost. We focus on Ascaris lumbricoides due to the availability of high-quality data on existing diagnostics. We show that the effect of improving the sensitivity of diagnostics is principally determined by the precontrol prevalence in the community. Communities at low true prevalence (<30%) and high true prevalence (>70%) do not benefit greatly from improved diagnostics. Communities with intermediate prevalence benefit greatly from increased chemotherapy application, both in terms of reduced DALY loss and increased probability of elimination. Our results suggest that programmes should be extended beyond school-age children, especially in high prevalence communities. Finally, we argue against using apparent or measured prevalence as an uncorrected proxy for true prevalence.

Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis--aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination

BACKGROUND

With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control. Modelling can assist in identifying what data should be collected and what strategies are best for which scenarios.

METHODS

We develop a new individual-based, stochastic mathematical model of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis. We validate the model by fitting to a first time point and predicting future timepoints from surveillance data in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which have different vectors and different stages of the control programme. We then simulate different treatment scenarios in low, medium and high transmission settings, comparing once yearly mass drug administration (MDA) with more frequent MDA and higher coverage. We investigate the potential impact that vector control, systematic non-compliance and different levels of aggregation have on the dynamics of transmission and control.

RESULTS

In all settings, increasing coverage from 65 to 80 % has a similar impact on control to treating twice a year at 65 % coverage, for fewer drug treatments being distributed. Vector control has a large impact, even at moderate levels. The extent of aggregation of parasite loads amongst a small portion of the population, which has been estimated to be highly variable in different settings, can undermine the success of a programme, particularly if high risk sub-communities are not accessing interventions.

CONCLUSION

Even moderate levels of vector control have a large impact both on the reduction in prevalence and the maintenance of gains made during MDA, even when parasite loads are highly aggregated, and use of vector control is at moderate levels. For the same prevalence, differences in aggregation and adherence can result in very different dynamics. The novel analysis of a small amount of surveillance data and resulting simulations highlight the need for more individual level data to be analysed to effectively tailor programmes in the drive for elimination.

What Is Needed to Eradicate Lymphatic Filariasis? A Model-Based Assessment on the Impact of Scaling Up Mass Drug Administration Programs

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease for which more than a billion people in 73 countries are thought to be at-risk. At a global level, the efforts against LF are designed as an elimination program. However, current efforts appear to aim for elimination in some but not all endemic areas. With the 2020 goal of elimination looming, we set out to develop plausible scale-up scenarios to reach global elimination and eradication. We predict the duration of mass drug administration (MDA) necessary to reach local elimination for a variety of transmission archetypes using an existing model of LF transmission, estimate the number of treatments required for each scenario, and consider implications of rapid scale-up.

Methodology

We have defined four scenarios that differ in their geographic coverage and rate of scale-up. For each scenario, country-specific simulations and calculations were performed that took into account the pre-intervention transmission intensity, the different vector genera, drug regimen, achieved level of population coverage, previous progress toward elimination, and potential programmatic delays due to mapping, operations, and administration.

Principal Findings

Our results indicate that eliminating LF by 2020 is unlikely. If MDA programs are drastically scaled up and expanded, the final round of MDA for LF eradication could be delivered in 2028 after 4,159 million treatments. However, if the current rate of scale-up is maintained, the final round of MDA to eradicate LF may not occur until 2050.

Conclusions/Significance

Rapid scale-up of MDA will decrease the amount of time and treatments required to reach LF eradication. It may also propel the program towards success, as the risk of failure is likely to increase with extended program duration.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a disease caused by filarial worms transmitted by different types of mosquitos that can lead to massive disability, including elephantiasis and hydrocele. LF has no significant zoonotic reservoir and is thought to be a potentially eradicable disease through once yearly treatment distributed by mass drug administration (MDA). In this study, we set out to determine how many treatments and over how much time it might take to globally eliminate and eradicate LF under different levels of treatment intensities. We created a model that took into account country-specific and disease-specific variables, and found that if the current intensity of MDA is maintained, 3,409 million treatments distributed over the next 37 years will be required. However, if treatment is rapidly expanded to the entire at-risk population in all endemic countries, eradication could be achieved with 4,159 million treatments and in less than half the time. While our estimates suggest more time may be needed to reach LF elimination than what is currently projected, with continued commitment, eradicating LF is within reach.

African Program for Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2010: Impact of Annual Ivermectin Mass Treatment on Off-Target Infectious Diseases

Since its initiation in 1995, the African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has had a substantial impact on the prevalence and burden of onchocerciasis through annual ivermectin mass treatment. Ivermectin is a broad-spectrum anti-parasitic agent that also has an impact on other co-endemic parasitic infections. In this study, we roughly assessed the additional impact of APOC activities on the burden of the most important off-target infections: soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH; ascariasis, trichuriasis, hookworm, and strongyloidiasis), lymphatic filariasis (LF), and scabies. Based on a literature review, we formulated assumptions about the impact of ivermectin treatment on the disease burden of these off-target infections. Using data on the number of ivermectin treatments in APOC regions and the latest estimates of the burden of disease, we then calculated the impact of APOC activities on off-target infections in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We conservatively estimated that between 1995 and 2010, annual ivermectin mass treatment has cumulatively averted about 500 thousand DALYs from co-endemic STH infections, LF, and scabies. This impact comprised approximately an additional 5.5% relative to the total burden averted from onchocerciasis (8.9 million DALYs) and indicates that the overall cost-effectiveness of APOC is even higher than previously reported.

Onchocerciasis, or river blindness, is an infectious disease caused by the worm Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted between humans through the bites of blackflies and causes deforming skin disease, itch, and vision loss. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) aims to control morbidity due to onchocerciasis by implementing mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin in endemic areas, targeting the whole population except for children under five and pregnant women. Aside from its effect on onchocerciasis, ivermectin also affects other parasitic infections such as lymphatic filariasis, intestinal worm infections, and scabies, which are all significantly co-endemic in areas covered by APOC. In this paper, the researchers roughly estimate the health impact of ivermectin MDA on off-target infections based on the number of dispensed treatments up to 2010, published estimates of the disease burden of off-target infections, and the expected effect of ivermectin treatment on the burden of these infections (based on literature review). This off-target health impact of APOC constitutes about 500 thousand years worth of healthy years of life (an additional 5.5% on top of the impact of APOC on the burden of onchocerciasis) and indicates that the cost-effectiveness of APOC is even higher than previously estimated.

The Allee effect and elimination of neglected tropical diseases: a mathematical modelling study

Elimination and control programmes for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are underway around the world, yet they are generally informed by epidemiological modelling only to a rudimentary degree. Chief among the modelling-derived predictors of disease emergence or controllability is the basic reproduction number R0. The ecological systems of several of the NTDs include density-dependent processes--which alter the rate of e.g. parasite establishment or fecundity--that complicate the calculation of R0. Here we show how the forms of the density-dependent functions for a model of the NTD lymphatic filariasis affect the effective reproduction number Reff. We construct infection transmission models containing various density-dependent functions and show how they alter the shape of the Reff profile, affecting two important epidemiological outcome variables that relate to elimination and control programmes: the parasite transmission breakpoint (or extinction threshold) and the reproduction fitness, as measured by Reff. The current drive to control, eliminate or eradicate several parasitic infections would be substantially aided by the existence of ecological Allee effects. For these control programmes, the findings of this paper are encouraging, since a single positive density dependency (DD) can introduce a reasonable chance of achieving elimination; however, there are diminishing returns to additional positive DDs.

Modelling lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: modelling frameworks, lessons learned and future directions

Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes.

How effective is integrated vector management against malaria and lymphatic filariasis where the diseases are transmitted by the same vector?

BACKGROUND

The opportunity to integrate vector management across multiple vector-borne diseases is particularly plausible for malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) control where both diseases are transmitted by the same vector. To date most examples of integrated control targeting these diseases have been unanticipated consequences of malaria vector control, rather than planned strategies that aim to maximize the efficacy and take the complex ecological and biological interactions between the two diseases into account.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed a general model of malaria and LF transmission and derived expressions for the basic reproductive number (R0) for each disease. Transmission of both diseases was most sensitive to vector mortality and biting rate. Simulating different levels of coverage of long lasting-insecticidal nets (LLINs) and larval control confirms the effectiveness of these interventions for the control of both diseases. When LF was maintained near the critical density of mosquitoes, minor levels of vector control (8% coverage of LLINs or treatment of 20% of larval sites) were sufficient to eliminate the disease. Malaria had a far greater R0 and required a 90% population coverage of LLINs in order to eliminate it. When the mosquito density was doubled, 36% and 58% coverage of LLINs and larval control, respectively, were required for LF elimination; and malaria elimination was possible with a combined coverage of 78% of LLINs and larval control.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Despite the low level of vector control required to eliminate LF, simulations suggest that prevalence of LF will decrease at a slower rate than malaria, even at high levels of coverage. If representative of field situations, integrated management should take into account not only how malaria control can facilitate filariasis elimination, but strike a balance between the high levels of coverage of (multiple) interventions required for malaria with the long duration predicted to be required for filariasis elimination.

Benefit of insecticide-treated nets, curtains and screening on vector borne diseases, excluding malaria: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the main interventions used for malaria control. However, these nets may also be effective against other vector borne diseases (VBDs). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the efficacy of ITNs, insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) and insecticide-treated house screening (ITS) against Chagas disease, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis, dengue, human African trypanosomiasis, Japanese encephalitis, lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and Tropical Disease Bulletin databases were searched using intervention, vector- and disease-specific search terms. Cluster or individually randomised controlled trials, non-randomised trials with pre- and post-intervention data and rotational design studies were included. Analysis assessed the efficacy of ITNs, ITCs or ITS versus no intervention. Meta-analysis of clinical data was performed and percentage reduction in vector density calculated.

Results

Twenty-one studies were identified which met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of clinical data could only be performed for four cutaneous leishmaniasis studies which together showed a protective efficacy of ITNs of 77% (95%CI: 39%–91%). Studies of ITC and ITS against cutaneous leishmaniasis also reported significant reductions in disease incidence. Single studies reported a high protective efficacy of ITS against dengue and ITNs against Japanese encephalitis. No studies of Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis or onchocerciasis were identified.

Conclusion

There are likely to be considerable collateral benefits of ITN roll out on cutaneous leishmaniasis where this disease is co-endemic with malaria. Due to the low number of studies identified, issues with reporting of entomological outcomes, and few studies reporting clinical outcomes, it is difficult to make strong conclusions on the effect of ITNs, ITCs or ITS on other VBDs and therefore further studies be conducted. Nonetheless, it is clear that insecticide-treated materials such as ITNs have the potential to reduce pathogen transmission and morbidity from VBDs where vectors enter houses.

Malaria is a deadly disease caused by a parasite which is transmitted by anopheline mosquitoes. Bednets treated with insecticide are one of the key tools used to prevent malaria and they have been distributed on a large scale in many countries, particularly in Africa. It may be possible to control other diseases transmitted by insects using insecticide-treated bednets because many of these insects also enter houses. We did a review of studies looking at the effectiveness of insecticide-treated bednets, curtains and house screening against nine major diseases transmitted by insects. We assessed the effect these tools had on reducing numbers of the insects and disease in humans. Insecticide-treated bednets were found to be effective in preventing cutaneous leishmaniasis—a disease transmitted by sandflies—and insecticide-treated curtains and screening showed potential in preventing other insect borne diseases. Although further studies are required, it is clear that insecticide-treated bednets, curtains and screening have the potential to prevent transmission of insect-transmitted diseases.

A review of factors that influence individual compliance with mass drug administration for elimination of lymphatic filariasis

Background

The success of programs to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) depends in large part on their ability to achieve and sustain high levels of compliance with mass drug administration (MDA). This paper reports results from a comprehensive review of factors that affect compliance with MDA.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Papers published between 2000 and 2012 were considered, and 79 publications were included in the final dataset for analysis after two rounds of selection. While results varied in different settings, some common features were associated with successful programs and with compliance by individuals. Training and motivation of drug distributors is critically important, because these people directly interact with target populations, and their actions can affect MDA compliance decisions by families and individuals. Other important programmatic issues include thorough preparation of personnel, supplies, and logistics for implementation and preparation of the population for MDA. Demographic factors (age, sex, income level, and area of residence) are often associated with compliance by individuals, but compliance decisions are also affected by perceptions of the potential benefits of participation versus the risk of adverse events. Trust and information can sometimes offset fear of the unknown. While no single formula can ensure success MDA in all settings, five key ingredients were identified: engender trust, tailor programs to local conditions, take actions to minimize the impact of adverse events, promote the broader benefits of the MDA program, and directly address the issue of systematic non-compliance, which harms communities by prolonging their exposure to LF.

Conclusions/Significance

This review has identified factors that promote coverage and compliance with MDA for LF elimination across countries. This information may be helpful for explaining results that do not meet expectations and for developing remedies for ailing MDA programs. Our review has also identified gaps in understanding and suggested priority areas for further research.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF, also known as “elephantiasis”) is a deforming and disabling disease that is caused by roundworm parasites that are transmitted by mosquitoes. The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis is the largest public health intervention program attempted to date based on mass drug administration (MDA). MDA does not cure filarial infections, but it can reduce or interrupt transmission of new infections by clearing larval parasites from human blood so that they are not available for mosquitoes. High levels of participation are required for this strategy to work; guidelines from the World Health Organization call for at least 65% of the eligible population to take the medications annually for four to six years. MDA presents logistical challenges that require cooperation between donors, health ministries, and communities. The success of MDA depends on coverage (drug delivery) and compliance (people ingesting antifilarial drugs), which depends on individual interactions between drug distributors and the people who live in LF-endemic areas. This paper focuses on this last step of implementation with a comprehensive review of published and unpublished information on factors that affect compliance with MDA at the level of the individual. We have also provided an outline of current gaps in understanding and recommendations for further research.

The symbiotic role of Wolbachia in Onchocercidae and its impact on filariasis

Symbiotic associations between eukaryotes and microorganisms are frequently observed in nature, and range along the continuum between parasitism and mutualism. The genus Wolbachia contains well-known intracellular bacteria of arthropods that induce several reproductive phenotypes that benefit the transmission of the bacteria. Interestingly, Wolbachia bacteria have been found in the Onchocercidae, a family of filarial nematodes, including species that cause human filarial diseases, e.g. lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis. The endosymbiont is thought to be mutualistic in the Onchocercidae, and to provide essential metabolites to the filariae. Currently, Wolbachia bacteria are targets of antibiotic therapy with tetracyclines, which have profound effects on the development, viability and fertility of filarial parasites. This overview article presents the Onchocercidae and Wolbachia, and then discusses the origin and the nature of the symbiosis. It highlights the contribution of Wolbachia to the survival of the filariae and to the development of pathology. Finally, the infection control implications for filariases are debated. Potential directions for future research are also discussed.

Sequential modelling of the effects of mass drug treatments on anopheline-mediated lymphatic filariasis infection in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted by the WHO for global eradication leading to the implementation of large scale intervention programs based on annual mass drug administrations (MDA) worldwide. Recent work has indicated that locality-specific bio-ecological complexities affecting parasite transmission may complicate the prediction of LF extinction endpoints, casting uncertainty on the achievement of this initiative. One source of difficulty is the limited quantity and quality of data used to parameterize models of parasite transmission, implying the important need to update initially-derived parameter values. Sequential analysis of longitudinal data following annual MDAs will also be important to gaining new understanding of the persistence dynamics of LF. Here, we apply a Bayesian statistical-dynamical modelling framework that enables assimilation of information in human infection data recorded from communities in Papua New Guinea that underwent annual MDAs, into our previously developed model of parasite transmission, in order to examine these questions in LF ecology and control.

RESULTS

Biological parameters underlying transmission obtained by fitting the model to longitudinal data remained stable throughout the study period. This enabled us to reliably reconstruct the observed baseline data in each community. Endpoint estimates also showed little variation. However, the updating procedure showed a shift towards higher and less variable values for worm kill but not for any other drug-related parameters. An intriguing finding is that the stability in key biological parameters could be disrupted by a significant reduction in the vector biting rate prevailing in a locality.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal invariance of biological parameters in the face of intervention perturbations indicates a robust adaptation of LF transmission to local ecological conditions. The results imply that understanding the mechanisms that underlie locally adapted transmission dynamics will be integral to identifying points of system fragility, and thus countermeasures to reliably facilitate LF extinction both locally and globally.

Modeling the impact and costs of semiannual mass drug administration for accelerated elimination of lymphatic filariasis

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) has a target date of 2020. This program is progressing well in many countries. However, progress has been slow in some countries, and others have not yet started their mass drug administration (MDA) programs. Acceleration is needed. We studied how increasing MDA frequency from once to twice per year would affect program duration and costs by using computer simulation modeling and cost projections. We used the LYMFASIM simulation model to estimate how many annual or semiannual MDA rounds would be required to eliminate LF for Indian and West African scenarios with varied pre-control endemicity and coverage levels. Results were used to estimate total program costs assuming a target population of 100,000 eligibles, a 3% discount rate, and not counting the costs of donated drugs. A sensitivity analysis was done to investigate the robustness of these results with varied assumptions for key parameters. Model predictions suggested that semiannual MDA will require the same number of MDA rounds to achieve LF elimination as annual MDA in most scenarios. Thus semiannual MDA programs should achieve this goal in half of the time required for annual programs. Due to efficiency gains, total program costs for semiannual MDA programs are projected to be lower than those for annual MDA programs in most scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this conclusion is robust. Semiannual MDA is likely to shorten the time and lower the cost required for LF elimination in countries where it can be implemented. This strategy may improve prospects for global elimination of LF by the target year 2020.

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) employs annual mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs to reduce infection rates in populations and interrupt transmission. While this program is working well in many countries, progress has been slow in others, and some countries have not yet started MDA programs. We used computer simulation modeling and cost projections to study how increasing MDA frequency from once to twice per year would affect program duration and costs. Our results suggest that semiannual MDA is likely to reduce the time required to eliminate LF by 50% and reduce total program costs (excluding the cost of donated drugs) in most situations. For these and other reasons, we expect semiannual MDA to be superior to annual MDA in most endemic settings. Semiannual MDA should be considered as a means of accelerating LF elimination in areas where it can be implemented, because this may improve prospects for global elimination of LF by the target year 2020.

Corallopyronin A specifically targets and depletes essential obligate Wolbachia endobacteria from filarial nematodes in vivo

Doxycycline and rifampicin deplete essential Wolbachia from filarial nematodes that cause lymphatic filariasis or onchocerciasis, resulting in blocked worm development and death. However, doxycycline is contraindicated for children and pregnant/breastfeeding women, as is rifampicin in the latter group with the additional specter of possible resistance development in Mycobacterium spp. Novel antibiotics with a narrower spectrum would aid in eliminating filarial diseases. Corallococcus coralloides synthesizes corallopyronin A, a noncompetitive inhibitor of RNA polymerase ineffective against Mycobacterium spp. Corallopyronin A depleted Wolbachia from infected insect cells (1.89 Thus the antibiotic is effective against intracellular bacteria despite the many intervening surfaces (blood vessels, pleura, worm cuticle) and membranes (worm cell, vesicle, Wolbachia inner and outer membranes). Corallopyronin A is an antibiotic to develop further for filariasis elimination without concern for cross-resistance development in tuberculosis.

A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: modelling for control and elimination

Mathematical modelling of helminth infections has the potential to inform policy and guide research for the control and elimination of human helminthiases. However, this potential, unlike in other parasitic and infectious diseases, has yet to be realised. To place contemporary efforts in a historical context, a summary of the development of mathematical models for helminthiases is presented. These efforts are discussed according to the role that models can play in furthering our understanding of parasite population biology and transmission dynamics, and the effect on such dynamics of control interventions, as well as in enabling estimation of directly unobservable parameters, exploration of transmission breakpoints, and investigation of evolutionary outcomes of control. The Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), was given the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps. A research and development agenda for helminthiasis modelling is proposed based on identified gaps that need to be addressed for models to become useful decision tools that can support research and control operations effectively. This agenda includes the use of models to estimate the impact of large-scale interventions on infection incidence; the design of sampling protocols for the monitoring and evaluation of integrated control programmes; the modelling of co-infections; the investigation of the dynamical relationship between infection and morbidity indicators; the improvement of analytical methods for the quantification of anthelmintic efficacy and resistance; the determination of programme endpoints; the linking of dynamical helminth models with helminth geostatistical mapping; and the investigation of the impact of climate change on human helminthiases. It is concluded that modelling should be embedded in helminth research, and in the planning, evaluation, and surveillance of interventions from the outset. Modellers should be essential members of interdisciplinary teams, propitiating a continuous dialogue with end users and stakeholders to reflect public health needs in the terrain, discuss the scope and limitations of models, and update biological assumptions and model outputs regularly. It is highlighted that to reach these goals, a collaborative framework must be developed for the collation, annotation, and sharing of databases from large-scale anthelmintic control programmes, and that helminth modellers should join efforts to tackle key questions in helminth epidemiology and control through the sharing of such databases, and by using diverse, yet complementary, modelling approaches.

Sustained reduction in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection in spite of missed rounds of mass drug administration in an area under mosquito nets for malaria control

BACKGROUND

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) was established by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2000 with the goal of eliminating lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem globally by 2020. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs is the principal strategy recommended for global elimination. Kenya launched a National Programme for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (NPELF) in Coast Region in 2002. During the same year a longitudinal research project to monitor trends of LF infection during MDA started in a highly endemic area in Malindi District. High coverage of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) in the coastal region has been associated with dramatic decline in hospital admissions due to malaria; high usage of ITNs is also expected to have an impact on LF infection, also transmitted by mosquitoes.

RESULTS

Four rounds of MDA with diethylcarbamazine citrate (DEC) and albendazole were given to 8 study villages over an 8-year period. Although annual MDA was not administered for several years the overall prevalence of microfilariae declined significantly from 20.9% in 2002 to 0.9% in 2009. Similarly, the prevalence of filarial antigenaemia declined from 34.6% in 2002 to 10.8% in 2009. All the examined children born since the start of the programme were negative for filarial antigen in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the fact that the study villages missed MDA in some of the years, significant reductions in infection prevalence and intensity were observed at each survey. More importantly, there were no rebounds in infection prevalence between treatment rounds. However, because of confounding variables such as insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), it is difficult to attribute the reduction to MDA alone as ITNs can lead to a significant reduction in exposure to filariasis vectors. The results indicate that national LF elimination programmes should be encouraged to continue provision of MDA albeit constraints that may lead to missing of MDA in some years.

Use of high-dose, twice-yearly albendazole and ivermectin to suppress Wuchereria bancrofti microfilarial levels

BACKGROUND

Annual mass treatment with albendazole and ivermectin is the mainstay of current strategies to interrupt transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti in Africa. More-effective microfilarial suppression could potentially reduce the time necessary to interrupt transmission, easing the economic burden of mass treatment programs in countries with limited resources.

METHODS

To determine the effect of increased dose and frequency of albendazole-ivermectin treatment on microfilarial clearance, 51 W. bancrofti microfilaremic residents of an area of W. bancrofti endemicity in Mali were randomized to receive 2 doses of annual, standard-dose albendazole-ivermectin therapy (400 mg and 150 μg/kg; n = 26) or 4 doses of twice-yearly, increased-dose albendazole-ivermectin therapy (800 mg and 400 μg/kg; n = 25).

RESULTS

Although microfilarial levels decreased significantly after therapy in both groups, levels were significantly lower in the high-dose, twice-yearly group at 12, 18, and 24 months. Furthermore, there was complete clearance of detectable microfilariae at 12 months in the 19 patients in the twice-yearly therapy group with data available at 12 months, compared with 9 of 21 patients in the annual therapy group (P < .001, by Fisher's exact test). This difference between the 2 groups was sustained at 18 and 24 months, with no detectable microfilariae in the patients receiving twice-yearly treatment. Worm nests detectable by ultrasonography and W. bancrofti circulating antigen levels, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, were decreased to the same degree in both groups at 24 months, compared with baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that increasing the dosage and frequency of albendazole-ivermectin treatment enhances suppression of microfilariae but that this effect may not be attributable to improved adulticidal activity.

Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control

Planning of the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models of malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction of likely epidemiological outcomes of a wide range of control strategies. Predictions of the effects of control often ignore medium- and long-term dynamics. The complexities of the Plasmodium life-cycle, and of within-host dynamics, limit the applicability of conventional deterministic malaria models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs. Individual infections are simulated by stochastic series of parasite densities, and naturally acquired immunity acts by reducing densities. Morbidity and mortality risks, and infectiousness to vectors, depend on parasite densities. The simulated infections are nested within simulations of individuals in human populations, and linked to models of interventions and health systems. We use numerous field datasets to optimise parameter estimates. By using a volunteer computing system we obtain the enormous computational power required for model fitting, sensitivity analysis, and exploration of many different intervention strategies. The project thus provides a general platform for comparing, fitting, and evaluating different model structures, and for quantitative prediction of effects of different interventions and integrated control programmes.