Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review

2'-Fucosyllactose Inhibits Human Norovirus Replication in Human Intestinal Enteroids

Human noroviruses (HuNoVs) are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Currently, there are no targeted antivirals for the treatment of HuNoV infection. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGAs) on the intestinal epithelium are cellular attachment factors for HuNoVs; molecules that block the binding of HuNoVs to HBGAs thus have the potential to be developed as antivirals. Human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs) are glycans in human milk with structures analogous to HBGAs. HMOs have been shown to act as decoy receptors to prevent the attachment of multiple enteric pathogens to host cells. Previous X-ray crystallography studies have demonstrated the binding of HMO 2'-fucosyllactose (2'FL) in the same pocket as HBGAs for some HuNoV strains. We evaluated the effect of 2'FL on the replication of a globally dominant GII.4 Sydney [P16] HuNoV strain using human intestinal enteroids (HIEs) from adults and children. A significant reduction in GII.4 Sydney [P16] replication was seen in duodenal and jejunal HIEs from multiple adult donors, all segments of the small intestine from an adult organ donor and in two pediatric duodenal HIEs. However, 2'FL did not inhibit HuNoV replication in two infant jejunal HIEs that had significantly lower expression of α1-2-fucosylated glycans. 2'FL can be synthesized in large scale, and safety and tolerance have been assessed previously. Our data suggest that 2'FL has the potential to be developed as a therapeutic for HuNoV gastroenteritis.

Transmissibility quantification of norovirus outbreaks in 2016-2021 in Beijing, China

The transmissibility is a crucial feature for norovirus, yet its quantitative estimation has been limited. Our objective was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0 ) of norovirus and investigate its variation characteristics. Norovirus outbreaks reported from September 2016 to August 2021 in Beijing were analyzed. The susceptible-infected-removed compartment model was established to estimate R0 . Linear regression models and logistic regression models were used to explore the factors affecting the transmissibility of norovirus. The overall median R0 of norovirus was estimated as 2.1 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.8-2.5), with 650 norovirus outbreaks. The transmissibility of norovirus varied by year, outbreak setting and genotype. The R0 of norovirus during September 2019 to August 2020 (median 2.1, IQR 1.8-2.4) and September 2020 to August 2021 (median 2.0, IQR 1.7-2.3) was lower than that of September 2016 to August 2017 (median 2.3, IQR 1.8-2.7) (β = 0.94, p = 0.05; β = 0.93, p = 0.008). The R0 of norovirus for all other settings was lower than that for kindergarten (median 2.4, IQR 2.0-2.9) (primary school: median 2.0, IQR 1.7-2.4, β = 0.94, p = 0.001; secondary school: median 1.7, IQR 1.5-2.0, β = 0.87, p < 0.001; college: median 1.7, IQR 1.5-1.8, β = 0.89, p = 0.03; other closed settings: median 1.8, IQR 1.5-2.0, β = 0.90, p = 0.004). GⅡ.2[P16] outbreaks had a median R0 of 2.2 (IQR 1.8-2.7), which was higher than that for GⅡ.6[P7] outbreaks (median 1.8, IQR: 1.8-2.0, odds ratio = 0.19, p = 0.03; GⅡ.2[P16] as reference) and mixed-genotype outbreaks (median 1.7, IQR: 1.5-1.8, β = 0.92, p = 0.02; mixed-genotype as reference). In kindergartens and primary schools, norovirus shows increased transmissibility, emphasizing the vulnerable population and high-risk settings. Furthermore, the transmissibility of norovirus may change over time and with virus evolution, necessitating additional research to uncover the underlying mechanisms.

Wastewater surveillance beyond COVID-19: a ranking system for communicable disease testing in the tri-county Detroit area, Michigan, USA

Introduction

Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, wastewater surveillance has been utilized to monitor the disease in the United States through routine national, statewide, and regional monitoring projects. A significant canon of evidence was produced showing that wastewater surveillance is a credible and effective tool for disease monitoring. Hence, the application of wastewater surveillance can extend beyond monitoring SARS-CoV-2 to encompass a diverse range of emerging diseases. This article proposed a ranking system for prioritizing reportable communicable diseases (CDs) in the Tri-County Detroit Area (TCDA), Michigan, for future wastewater surveillance applications at the Great Lakes Water Authority's Water Reclamation Plant (GLWA's WRP).

Methods

The comprehensive CD wastewater surveillance ranking system (CDWSRank) was developed based on 6 binary and 6 quantitative parameters. The final ranking scores of CDs were computed by summing the multiplication products of weighting factors for each parameter, and then were sorted based on decreasing priority. Disease incidence data from 2014 to 2021 were collected for the TCDA. Disease incidence trends in the TCDA were endowed with higher weights, prioritizing the TCDA over the state of Michigan.

Results

Disparities in incidences of CDs were identified between the TCDA and state of Michigan, indicating epidemiological differences. Among 96 ranked CDs, some top ranked CDs did not present relatively high incidences but were prioritized, suggesting that such CDs require significant attention by wastewater surveillance practitioners, despite their relatively low incidences in the geographic area of interest. Appropriate wastewater sample concentration methods are summarized for the application of wastewater surveillance as per viral, bacterial, parasitic, and fungal pathogens.

Discussion

The CDWSRank system is one of the first of its kind to provide an empirical approach to prioritize CDs for wastewater surveillance, specifically in geographies served by centralized wastewater collection in the area of interest. The CDWSRank system provides a methodological tool and critical information that can help public health officials and policymakers allocate resources. It can be used to prioritize disease surveillance efforts and ensure that public health interventions are targeted at the most potentially urgent threats. The CDWSRank system can be easily adopted to geographical locations beyond the TCDA.

Evaluation of the transmissibility of norovirus and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures for schools in Jiangsu Province

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to estimate the transmissibility of norovirus outbreaks in schools by different transmission routes, and to evaluate the effects of isolation, school-closure and disinfection measures under different intervention intensities, finally, scientific prevention and control suggestions are proposed.

METHOD

23 outbreaks of norovirus infectious diarrhea occurring in Jiangsu Province's school from 2012-2018 were selected and fitted to the model. The data includes various types of school places and pathogen genotype. A 'SEIAQRW' model with two transmission routes was established. The transmissibility of each outbreak was assessed using effective reproduction number, the efficacy of different intervention measures and intensities were evaluated by calculating the total attack rate and peak incidence.

RESULTS

The mean effective reproduction number of noroviruses was estimated to be 8.92 for the human-to-human route of transmission and 2.19 for the water or food-to-human route of transmission. When all symptomatic cases were isolated, the median peak incidence for both transmission routes both being less than 1.8%. There was a smaller reduction in total attack rate compared to peak incidence, the median total attack rate for the two transmission routes decreased by 17.59% and 42.09%, respectively. When the effect of school-closure or disinfection is more than 90%, the total attack rate and peak incidence in the human-to-human route are reduced by more than 90% compared to no intervention, and the peak incidence in the water or food-to-human routes can be reduced to less than 1.4%, but the reduction in the total attack rate is only 50% or so.

CONCLUSION

Norovirus outbreaks have a high rate of transmission in schools. In the case of norovirus outbreaks, isolation should be complemented by other interventions, and the implementation of high-intensity school closures or disinfection of the external environment can be effective in reducing the spread of the virus.

Lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions following the COVID-19 pandemic - the quiet before the storm?

INTRODUCTION

In the first months of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that begun in 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted worldwide. However, the effects of NPI implementation go beyond slowing the spread of COVID-19. Here, we review the non-intended effects that may have arisen from prolonged application of NPIs.

AREAS COVERED

NPIs also affected the epidemiology of other infectious diseases, with unprecedentedly low circulation of several respiratory and gastrointestinal viruses being observed worldwide in 2020. While this was a welcome effect for already strained healthcare systems, prolonged low exposure to pathogens may result in an increased pool of individuals susceptible to certain diseases. Out-of-season or unusually intense outbreaks of non-vaccine preventable diseases have already been documented as NPIs were gradually eased. In the context of widespread and important disruptions in national vaccination programs during the early phase of the pandemic, the risk of vaccine-preventable disease resurgence after NPIs are lifted cannot be excluded either.

EXPERT OPINION

Awareness must be raised of the risk of vaccine-preventable disease resurgence, and efforts need to be made to mitigate this risk, where possible, by increasing vaccination coverage. Research and regulatory opportunities brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic should be seized.

Genomic stratification and differential natural selection signatures among human norovirus genogroup II isolates

Noroviruses (NoVs), which are members of the family Caliciviridae, are the most common cause of gastroenteritis in humans. Ten NoV genogroups have been reported so far. Of these, genogroup II (GII) is the most prevalent, and it causes serious infections worldwide. The complete genome sequences of NoV GII isolates from different geographical regions were retrieved from the public database. The model-based clustering approach, implemented in the STRUCTURE resource, was employed for assessment of genetic composition. The MEGA X and IQ Tree tools were used for phylogenetic analysis. Genome-wide natural selection analysis was performed using maximum-likelihood-based methods. The demographic features of NoV GII genome sequences were assessed using the BEAST package. All of the NoV GII sequences initially clustered into two main subpopulations at significant K = 2, where the genotype GII.4 samples clearly split from the rest of the genotypes. This indicates a marked genetic distinction between norovirus GII.4 and non-GII.4 samples. Phylogenetic analysis showed the presence of five distinct subclades for genotype GII.2 and seven subclades for GII.4 samples. Several isolates with admixed ancestry were identified that constituted distinct subclusters in the phylogenetic tree. No continental-specific genetic distinctions were observed among the NoV GII samples. Significant genomic signatures of both positive and negative natural selection were identified across the NoV GII genes. A differential pattern of positive selection signals was inferred between the GII.4 and non-GII.4 genotypes. The demographic analysis revealed an increase in the effective population size of NoV GII during 2009-2010, followed by a rapid fall in 2015.

Study of Risk Factors for Total Attack Rate and Transmission Dynamics of Norovirus Outbreaks, Jiangsu Province, China, From 2012 to 2018

Objective: To describe the epidemiological characteristics of norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province, utilize the total attack rate (TAR) and transmissibility (R_unc) as the measurement indicators of the outbreak, and a statistical difference in risk factors associated with TAR and transmissibility was compared. Ultimately, this study aimed to provide scientific suggestions to develop the most appropriate prevention and control measures.

Method: We collected epidemiological data from investigation reports of all norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2018 and performed epidemiological descriptions, sequenced the genes of the positive specimens collected that were eligible for sequencing, created a database and calculated the TAR, constructed SEIAR and SEIARW transmission dynamic models to calculate R_unc, and performed statistical analyses of risk factors associated with the TAR and R_unc.

Results: We collected a total of 206 reported outbreaks, of which 145 could be used to calculate transmissibility. The mean TAR in was 2.6% and the mean R_unc was 12.2. The epidemiological characteristics of norovirus outbreaks showed an overall increasing trend in the number of norovirus outbreaks from 2012 to 2018; more outbreaks in southern Jiangsu than northern Jiangsu; more outbreaks in urban areas than in rural areas; outbreaks occurred mostly in autumn and winter. Most of the sites where outbreaks occurred were schools, especially primary schools. Interpersonal transmission accounted for the majority. Analysis of the genotypes of noroviruses revealed that the major genotypes of the viruses changed every 3 years, with the GII.2 [P16] type of norovirus dominating from 2016 to 2018. Statistical analysis of TAR associated with risk factors found statistical differences in all risk factors, including time (year, month, season), location (geographic location, type of settlement, type of premises), population (total number of susceptible people at the outbreak site), transmission route, and genotype (P < 0.05). Statistical analysis of transmissibility associated with risk factors revealed that only transmissibility was statistically different between sites.

Conclusions: The number of norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province continues to increase during the follow-up period. Our findings highlight the impact of different factors on norovirus outbreaks and identify the key points of prevention and control in Jiangsu Province.

Norovirus Vaccines: Current Clinical Development and Challenges

Noroviruses are the major viral pathogens causing epidemic and endemic acute gastroenteritis with significant morbidity and mortality. While vaccines against norovirus diseases have been shown to be of high significance, the development of a broadly effective norovirus vaccine remains difficult, owing to the wide genetic and antigenic diversity of noroviruses with multiple co-circulated variants of various genotypes. In addition, the absence of a robust cell culture system, an efficient animal model, and reliable immune markers of norovirus protection for vaccine evaluation further hinders the developmental process. Among the vaccine candidates that are currently under clinical studies, recombinant VP1-based virus-like particles (VLPs) that mimic major antigenic features of noroviruses are the common ones, with proven safety, immunogenicity, and protective efficacy, supporting a high success likelihood of a useful norovirus vaccine. This short article reviews the recent progress in norovirus vaccine development, focusing on those from recent clinical studies, as well as summarizes the barriers that are being encountered in this developmental process and discusses issues of future perspective.

Retrospective molecular analysis of norovirus recombinant strains in the amazon region, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Noroviruses are enteric viruses that cause acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Over two decades, GII.4 genotype was responsible for most cases. However, recombinant strains have emerged and changed the epidemiological context of these infections.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to identify the recombinant genetic strains of norovirus causing gastroenteritis in Brazilian children from the Amazon region.

METHODS

We analyzed 534 cases of gastroenteritis between 2015 and 2016. Genotypic characterization was performed by partial sequencing of ORF1 and ORF2. Evolutionary history was inferred by Bayesian inference using MrBayes. Recombinant strains were confirmed by Simplot and RDP4 analysis.

FINDINGS

We performed viral detection tests and identified a norovirus frequency of 31.8% (175/534). Based on viral RdRp and VP1 genes, nine genotypes were identified: GIIP31/GII.4, GII·P16/GII.4, GII·P7/GII.6, GII·P21/GII.13, GII·P33/GII.1, GII·P17/GII.17, GI·P7/GI.7, GII·P4/NT, and GII.7/NT. The phylogenetic tree showed evolutionary relationships among the genotypes, including the recombinant strains. This is the first description of GII·P33/GII.1 and GII·P21/GII.13 genotypes in Brazil.

CONCLUSION

Norovirus evolution has been characterized by the continuous replacement of variants that have new antigenic properties. In recent years, recombinant strains have displaced GII.4, improving the viral fitness and influencing the viral transmissibility and pathogenicity.

Norovirus: Facts and Reflections from Past, Present, and Future

Human Norovirus is currently the main viral cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGEs) in most countries worldwide. Nearly 50 years after the discovery of the "Norwalk virus" by Kapikian and colleagues, the scientific and medical community continue to generate new knowledge on the full biological and disease spectrum of Norovirus infection. Nevertheless, several areas remain incompletely understood due to the serious constraints to effectively replicate and propagate the virus. Here, we present a narrated historic perspective and summarize our current knowledge, including insights and reflections on current points of interest for a broad medical community, including clinical and molecular epidemiology, viral-host-microbiota interactions, antivirals, and vaccine prototypes. We also include a reflection on the present and future impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Norovirus infection and disease.

Predicting Norovirus in the United States Using Google Trends: Infodemiology Study

Background

Norovirus is a contagious disease. The transmission of norovirus spreads quickly and easily in various ways. Because effective methods to prevent or treat norovirus have not been discovered, it is important to rapidly recognize and report norovirus outbreaks in the early phase. Internet search has been a useful method for people to access information immediately. With the precise record of internet search trends, internet search has been a useful tool to manifest infectious disease outbreaks.

Objective

In this study, we tried to discover the correlation between internet search terms and norovirus infection.

Methods

The internet search trend data of norovirus were obtained from Google Trends. We used cross-correlation analysis to discover the temporal correlation between norovirus and other terms. We also used multiple linear regression with the stepwise method to recognize the most important predictors of internet search trends and norovirus. In addition, we evaluated the temporal correlation between actual norovirus cases and internet search terms in New York, California, and the United States as a whole.

Results

Some Google search terms such as gastroenteritis, watery diarrhea, and stomach bug coincided with norovirus Google Trends. Some Google search terms such as contagious, travel, and party presented earlier than norovirus Google Trends. Some Google search terms such as dehydration, bar, and coronavirus presented several months later than norovirus Google Trends. We found that fever, gastroenteritis, poison, cruise, wedding, and watery diarrhea were important factors correlated with norovirus Google Trends. In actual norovirus cases from New York, California, and the United States as a whole, some Google search terms presented with, earlier, or later than actual norovirus cases.

Conclusions

Our study provides novel strategy-based internet search evidence regarding the epidemiology of norovirus.

Effect of Direct Viral-Bacterial Interactions on the Removal of Norovirus From Lettuce

Norovirus (NoV) is the main non-bacterial pathogen causing outbreaks of gastroenteritis and is considered to be the leading cause of foodborne illness. This study aims to determine whether lettuce-encapsulated bacteria can express histo-blood group antigen (HBGA)–like substances to bind to NoV and, if so, to explore its role in protecting NoV from disinfection practices. Fifteen bacterial strains (HBGA-SEBs) were isolated from the lettuce microbiome and studied as they were proved to have the ability to express HBGA-like substances through indirect ELISA detection. By using attachment assay, HBGA-SEBs showed great abilities in carrying NoVs regarding the evaluation of binding capacity, especially for the top four strains from genera Wautersiella, Sphingobacterium, and Brachybacterium, which could absorb more than 60% of free-flowing NoVs. Meanwhile, the direct viral–bacterial binding between HBGA-like substance-expressing bacteria (HBGA-SEB) and NoVs was observed by TEM. Subsequently, results of simulated environmental experiments showed that the binding of NoVs with HBGA-SEBs did have detrimental effects on NoV reduction, which were evident in short-time high-temperature treatment (90°C) and UV exposure. Finally, by considering the relative abundance of homologous microorganisms of HBGA-SEBs in the lettuce microbiome (ca. 36.49%) and the reduction of NoVs in the simulated environments, we suggested putting extra attention on the daily disinfection of foodborne-pathogen carriers to overcome the detrimental effects of direct viral–bacterial interactions on the reduction of NoVs.

Long-term dynamics of Norovirus transmission in Japan, 2005-2019

Norovirus continues to evolve, adjusting its pathogenesis and transmissibility. In the present study, we systematically collected datasets on Norovirus outbreaks in Japan from 2005 to 2019 and analyzed time-dependent changes in the asymptomatic ratio, the probability of virus detection, and the probability of infection given exposure. Reports of 1,728 outbreaks were published, and feces from all involved individuals, including those with asymptomatic infection, were tested for virus in 434 outbreaks. We found that the outbreak size did not markedly change over this period, but the variance in outbreak size increased during the winter (November–April). Assuming that natural history parameters did not vary over time, the asymptomatic ratio, the probability of virus detection, and the probability of infection given exposure were estimated to be 18.6%, 63.3% and 84.5%, respectively. However, a model with time-varying natural history parameters yielded better goodness-of-fit and suggested that the asymptomatic ratio varied by year. The asymptomatic ratio was as high as 25.8% for outbreaks caused by genotype GII.4 noroviruses. We conclude that Norovirus transmissibility has not changed markedly since 2005, and that yearly variation in the asymptomatic ratio could potentially be explained by the circulating dominant genotype.

Characterizing Norovirus Transmission from Outbreak Data, United States

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in the United States. We estimated the basic (R₀) and effective (R_e) reproduction numbers for 7,094 norovirus outbreaks reported to the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) during 2009–2017 and used regression models to assess whether transmission varied by outbreak setting. The median R₀ was 2.75 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.38–3.65), and median R_e was 1.29 (IQR 1.12–1.74). Long-term care and assisted living facilities had an R₀ of 3.35 (95% CI 3.26–3.45), but R₀ did not differ substantially for outbreaks in other settings, except for outbreaks in schools, colleges, and universities, which had an R₀ of 2.92 (95% CI 2.82–3.03). Seasonally, R₀ was lowest (3.11 [95% CI 2.97–3.25]) in summer and peaked in fall and winter. Overall, we saw little variability in transmission across different outbreaks settings in the United States.

Reduction in Sporadic Norovirus Infections Following the Start of the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2019-2020, Philadelphia

Introduction

Norovirus infections are common in the USA and worldwide. Detection of norovirus in fecal samples is now common in routine tests for enteric pathogens using molecular methods. We observed a change in positivity rates for norovirus after the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in our laboratory and performed a more detailed analysis of testing results.

Methods

We reviewed the positivity rates for detection of common enteric pathogens from stool samples submitted to an academic medical center laboratory pre (2016–2019) and post the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020).

Results

In contrast to other enteric pathogens, norovirus positivity rates dropped dramatically from a yearly average of 3.9% in 2016–2019 to 0.76% from March 2020 through the end of 2020.

Conclusion

A sustained reduction in norovirus positivity rates was temporally associated with COVID-19 mitigation processes in the Philadelphia area, while positivity rates for other common enteric pathogens were only intermittently reduced.

Multi-modality detection of SARS-CoV-2 in faecal donor samples for transplantation and in asymptomatic emergency surgical admissions

Background: Faecal transplantation is an evidence-based treatment for Clostridioides difficile. Patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 have been shown to shed the virus in stool for up to 33 days, well beyond the average clearance time for upper respiratory tract shedding. We carried out an analytical and clinical validation of reverse-transcriptase quantitative (RT-qPCR) as well as LAMP, LamPORE and droplet digital PCR in the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool from donated samples for faecal microbiota transplantation (FMT), spiked samples and asymptomatic inpatients in an acute surgical unit.  Methods: Killed SARS-CoV-2 viral lysate and extracted RNA was spiked into donor stool & FMT and a linear dilution series from 10 -1 to 10 -5 and tested via RT-qPCR, LAMP, LamPORE and ddPCR against SARS-CoV-2. Patients admitted to the critical care unit with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 and sequential asymptomatic patients from acute presentation to an acute surgical unit were also tested. Results: In a linear dilution series, detection of the lowest dilution series was found to be 8 copies per microlitre of sample. Spiked lysate samples down to 10 -2 dilution were detected in FMT samples using RTQPCR, LamPORE and ddPCR and down to 10 -1 with LAMP. In symptomatic patients 5/12 had detectable SARS-CoV-2 in stool via RT-qPCR and 6/12 via LamPORE, and in 1/97 asymptomatic patients via RT-qPCR. Conclusion: RT-qPCR can be detected in FMT donor samples using RT-qPCR, LamPORE and ddPCR to low levels using validated pathways. As previously demonstrated, nearly half of symptomatic and less than one percent of asymptomatic patients had detectable SARS-CoV-2 in stool.

Efficacy of compartmentalization in controlling an adenovirus type 54 keratoconjunctivitis outbreak on Oki Island, Japan

PURPOSE

To analyze the epidemiologic characteristics of an outbreak of human adenovirus type 54 (HAdV-54) on Oki Island, Shimane Prefecture, Japan, in 2017 and to assess the effectiveness of a compartmentalization method in controlling the incidence and spread.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

The infection was diagnosed in 136 individuals, and typing was confirmed by PCR and direct sequencing. The epidemiologic characteristics of the disease including the infection rate, incubation period, and basic reproductive number (R0), ie, number of cases directly infected by an infectious patient during the course of the disease, were investigated. The effectiveness of compartmentalization for infection control was determined by simulating the outbreak using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model.

RESULTS

The majority of the HAdV-54-infected individuals were the children of 3 nursery schools (A, B, and C) and their parents on Oki Island. The infection rates in the 3 schools were 13.2%, 16.9%, and 17.2%, respectively. The one class of school B without the index case was initially compartmentalized, and the infection rate in this compartment was 0%. The incubation period was calculated to be 9.3 ± 3.5 days, and the disease duration, 13.0 ± 5.4 days. The R0 was 1.43. Using these parameters, a SEIR model was constructed. The SEIR model well predicted the daily incidence of infection and indicated that the compartmentalization method provides effective reduction in the incidence of the infection, with much earlier control.

CONCLUSIONS

The compartmentalization method is effective to control HAdV-54 outbreaks.

Immunologic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Norovirus Transmission in Daycare and School Outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Norovirus outbreaks are notoriously explosive, with dramatic symptomology and rapid disease spread. Children are particularly vulnerable to infection and drive norovirus transmission due to their high contact rates with each other and the environment. Despite the explosive nature of norovirus outbreaks, attack rates in schools and daycares remain low with the majority of students not reporting symptoms.

METHODS

We explore immunologic and epidemiologic mechanisms that may underlie epidemic norovirus transmission dynamics using a disease transmission model. Towards this end, we compared different model scenarios, including innate resistance and acquired immunity (collectively denoted 'immunity'), stochastic extinction, and an individual exclusion intervention. We calibrated our model to daycare and school outbreaks from national surveillance data.

RESULTS

Including immunity in the model led to attack rates that were consistent with the data. However, immunity alone resulted in the majority of outbreak durations being relatively short. The addition of individual exclusion (to the immunity model) extended outbreak durations by reducing the amount of time that symptomatic people contribute to transmission. Including both immunity and individual exclusion mechanisms resulted in simulations where both attack rates and outbreak durations were consistent with surveillance data.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in daycare and school settings cannot be well described by a simple transmission model in which all individuals start as fully susceptible. More studies on how best to design interventions which leverage population immunity and encourage more rigorous individual exclusion may improve venue-level control measures. See video abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B795.

Virucidal Efficacy of Household Dishwashers

Not only since SARS-CoV-2, have transmission routes of viruses been of interest. Noroviruses e.g., can be transmitted via smear infection, are relatively stable in the environment and very resistant to chemical disinfection. Some studies determined the virucidal efficacy of laundering processes, but few studies focused on the virucidal efficacy of dishwashing processes. Here, especially consumer related conditions are of interest. Households for example are a hotspot of norovirus infection and thus a sufficient reduction of these and other viruses from dishes must be insured to avoid an infection via this route. The likelihood of such an event should not be underestimated, since it was shown that the washing machine can be a reservoir for the transmission of extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing bacteria in newborns. Although viruses do not replicate in these devices a transmission via contaminated cutlery e.g., cannot be excluded. Using a consumer related approach to determine the virucidal efficacy of dishwashers, we found a combination of a bleach containing dishwasher detergent, a cleaning temperature of 45 °C for 45 min and a rinsing temperature of 50 °C, to be sufficient to reduces viral titer of bovine corona virus, murine norovirus and modified vaccinia virus by 4.8, 4.2 and 3.8 logarithmic stages respectively.

Comparison of a one-step real-time RT-PCR and a nested real-time RT-PCR for a genogroup II norovirus reveals differences in sensitivity depending upon assay design and visualization

Human norovirus (NoV) is the leading cause of acute viral gastroenteritis and a major source of foodborne illness. Detection of NoV in food and environmental samples is typically performed using molecular techniques, including real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and less frequently, nested real-time PCR. In this study, we conducted a controlled comparison of two published NoV detection assays: a broadly reactive one-step real-time RT-PCR and a two-step nested real-time PCR assay. A 20% human fecal suspension containing a genogroup II human NoV was serially diluted, genome extracted, and subjected to amplification using the two assays compared via PCR Units. Additional amplicon confirmation was performed by dot blot hybridization using digoxigenin (DIG)-labeled oligonucleotide probes. Both assays displayed similar amplification standard curves/amplification efficiencies; however, the nested assay consistently detected one log10 lower virus. Dot blot hybridization improved the detection limit of the nested real-time PCR by one log10 NoV genome copies but impaired the detection limit of the one-step real-time RT-PCR by one log10 NoV genome copies. These results illustrate the complexities in designing and interpreting molecular techniques having a sufficient detection limit to detect low levels of viruses that might be anticipated in contaminated food and environmental samples.

Cost-effectiveness of pediatric norovirus vaccination in daycare settings

Objective:

Noroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the United States and outbreaks frequently occur in daycare settings. Results of norovirus vaccine trials have been promising, however there are open questions as to whether vaccination of daycare children would be cost-effective. We investigated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical norovirus vaccination for children in daycare settings compared to no vaccination.

Methods:

We conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using a disease transmission model of children attending daycare. Vaccination with a 90% coverage rate in addition to the observed standard of care (exclusion of symptomatic children from daycare) was compared to the observed standard of care. The main outcomes measures were infections and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Cost-effectiveness was analyzed from a societal perspective, including medical costs to children as well as productivity losses of parents, over a two-year time horizon. Data sources included outbreak surveillance data and published literature.

Results:

A 50% efficacious norovirus vaccine averts 571.83 norovirus cases and 0.003 norovirus-related deaths per 10,000 children compared to the observed standard of care. A $200 norovirus vaccine that is 50% efficacious has a net cost increase of $178.10 per child and 0.025 more QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $7,028/QALY. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we estimated that a $200 vaccination with 50% efficacy was 94.0% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000/QALY threshold and 95.3% likely at a $150,000/QALY threshold.

Conclusion:

Due to the large disease burden associated with norovirus, it is likely that vaccinating children in daycares could be cost-effective, even with modest vaccine efficacy and a high per-child cost of vaccination. Norovirus vaccination of children in daycare has a cost-effectiveness ratio similar to other commonly recommended childhood vaccines.

Understanding the Importance of Contact Heterogeneity and Variable Infectiousness in the Dynamics of a Large Norovirus Outbreak

BACKGROUND

Large norovirus (NoV) outbreaks are explosive in nature and vary widely in final size and duration, suggesting that superspreading combined with heterogeneous contact may explain these dynamics. Modeling tools that can capture heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact are important for NoV outbreak prevention and control, yet they remain limited.

METHODS

Data from a large NoV outbreak at a Dutch scout jamboree, which resulted in illness among 326 (of 4500 total) individuals from 7 separate camps, were used to examine the contributions of individual variation in infectiousness and clustered contact patterns to the transmission dynamics. A Bayesian hierarchical model of heterogeneous, clustered outbreak transmission was applied to represent (1) between-individual heterogeneity in infectiousness and (2) heterogeneous patterns of contact.

RESULTS

We found wide heterogeneity in infectiousness across individuals, suggestive of superspreading. Nearly 50% of individual infectiousness was concentrated in the individual's subcamp of residence, with the remainder distributed over other subcamps. This suggests a source-and-sink dynamic in which subcamps with greater average infectiousness fed cases to those with a lower transmission rate. Although the per capita transmission rate within camps was significantly greater than that between camps, the large pool of susceptible individuals across camps enabled similar numbers of secondary cases generated between versus within camps.

CONCLUSIONS

The consideration of clustered transmission and heterogeneous infectiousness is important for understanding NoV transmission dynamics. Models including these mechanisms may be useful for providing early warning and guiding outbreak response.

The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

A key unknown for SARS-CoV-2 is how asymptomatic infections contribute to transmission. We used a transmission model with asymptomatic and presymptomatic states, calibrated to data on disease onset and test frequency from the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak, to quantify the contribution of asymptomatic infections to transmission. The model estimated that 74% (70-78%, 95% posterior interval) of infections proceeded asymptomatically. Despite intense testing, 53% (51-56%) of infections remained undetected, most of them asymptomatic. Asymptomatic individuals were the source for 69% (20-85%) of all infections. The data did not allow identification of the infectiousness of asymptomatic infections, however low ranges (0-25%) required a net reproduction number for individuals progressing through presymptomatic and symptomatic stages of at least 15. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections may contribute substantially to transmission. Control measures, and models projecting their potential impact, need to look beyond the symptomatic cases if they are to understand and address ongoing transmission.

Surveillance of the 'bud event of norovirus-associated gastroenteritis' in schools: does it work in the prevention of norovirus infection outbreaks in Shanghai?

Outbreaks of norovirus-associated gastroenteritis have been reported in schools in recent decades in China. For early warning and response to infectious disease outbreaks, the Shanghai Infectious Diseases Bud Event Surveillance System (IDBESS) was established in 2016. Bud event is a term used for the early sign of a potential infectious disease outbreak in public settings when the first few cases appear. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis bud events from June 2016 to December 2017 and to understand factors influencing the severity of events. Data were extracted from the IDBESS, supplemented by field investigations and school absence surveillance. In total, 189 bud events of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis were reported in schools and kindergartens, affecting 3827 individuals and 52.38% happened in primary schools. The attack rate of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis was 3.82% on average in students in the affected schools. In each event, case numbers varied between 5 and 148, with a median of 16. The duration of bud events lasted for 2 days on average. School absence happened in 47.93% (1797/3749) of affected students and the average duration of absence was 3.07 days. It was found that a longer delay before reporting was associated with a longer-lasting duration of bud event (OR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.65, 3.07). In conclusion, ascribed to the sensitive threshold for alerting and the timely field investigation, the surveillance of bud events of Norovirus-associated gastroenteritis is effective in the control of Norovirus infection among preschool children and students in Shanghai.

Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections

Norovirus (NoV) is the most commonly recognized cause of acute gastroenteritis, with over a million cases globally per year. While usually self-limiting, NoV poses a substantial economic burden because it is highly contagious and there are multiple transmission routes. Infection occurs through inhalation of vomitus; faecal-oral spread; and food, water and environmental contamination. While the incidence of the disease is predictably seasonal, much less is known about the relative contribution of the various exposure pathways in causing disease. Additionally, asymptomatic excretion and viral shedding make forecasting disease burden difficult. We develop a novel stochastic dynamic network model to investigate the contributions of different transmission pathways in multiple coupled social networks representing schools, hospitals, care-homes and family households in a community setting. We analyse how the networks impact on transmission. We used ward-level demographic data from Northumberland, UK to create a simulation cohort. We compared the results with extant data on NoV cases from the IID2 study. Connectivity across the simulated cohort was high. Cases of NoV showed marked seasonality, peaking in early winter and declining through the summer. For the first time, we show that fomites and food appear to be the most important exposure routes in determining the population burden of disease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Misinformation making a disease outbreak worse: outcomes compared for influenza, monkeypox, and norovirus

Health misinformation can exacerbate infectious disease outbreaks. Especially pernicious advice could be classified as "fake news": manufactured with no respect for accuracy and often integrated with emotive or conspiracy-framed narratives. We built an agent-based model that simulated separate but linked circulating contagious disease and sharing of health advice (classified as useful or harmful). Such advice has potential to influence human risk-taking behavior and therefore the risk of acquiring infection, especially as people are more likely in observed social networks to share bad advice. We test strategies proposed in the recent literature for countering misinformation. Reducing harmful advice from 50% to 40% of circulating information, or making at least 20% of the population unable to share or believe harmful advice, mitigated the influence of bad advice in the disease outbreak outcomes. How feasible it is to try to make people "immune" to misinformation or control spread of harmful advice should be explored.

Quantifying the roles of vomiting, diarrhea, and residents vs. staff in norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home outbreaks

The role of individual case characteristics, such as symptoms or demographics, in norovirus transmissibility is poorly understood. Six nursing home norovirus outbreaks occurring in South Carolina, U.S. from 2014 to 2016 were examined. We aimed to quantify the contribution of symptoms and other case characteristics in norovirus transmission using the reproduction number (R_Ei) as an estimate of individual case infectivity and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. Individual estimates of R_Ei were calculated using a maximum likelihood procedure to infer the average number of secondary cases generated by each case. The associations between case characteristics and R_Ei were estimated using a weighted multivariate mixed linear model. Outbreaks began with one to three index case(s) with large estimated R_Ei’s (range: 1.48 to 8.70) relative to subsequent cases. Of the 209 cases, 155 (75%) vomited, 164 (79%) had diarrhea, and 158 (76%) were nursing home residents (vs. staff). Cases who vomited infected 2.12 (95% CI: 1.68, 2.68) times the number of individuals as non-vomiters, cases with diarrhea infected 1.39 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.87) times the number of individuals as cases without diarrhea, and resident-cases infected 1.53 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.02) times the number of individuals as staff-cases. Index cases tended to be residents (vs. staff) who vomited and infected considerably more secondary cases compared to non-index cases. Results suggest that individuals, particularly residents, who vomit are more infectious and tend to drive norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. While diarrhea also plays a role in norovirus transmission, it is to a lesser degree than vomiting in these settings. Results lend support for prevention and control measures that focus on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents.

The majority of all norovirus outbreaks reported to the CDC occur in long-term care facilities (LTCFs), including nursing homes, where older residents are at risk for more severe or prolonged infection. Because there is currently no publicly available norovirus vaccine, sound control measures are key to controlling norovirus outbreaks, but there is little evidence that standard control measures are effective in reducing the size and/or duration of LTCF norovirus outbreaks. Hence, studies leading to a better understanding of disease spread and prevention of additional cases, and thus more effective control measures, are needed. To this end, we aimed to quantify factors associated with norovirus transmission and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. We show that vomiting and, to a lesser extent, diarrhea are critical in initiating and sustaining norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. We also show that nursing home residents, rather than staff, are the primary drivers of transmission. Results suggest that control measures focusing on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents, would be most effective at curtailing norovirus transmission in these settings.

An agent-based model about the effects of fake news on a norovirus outbreak

BACKGROUND

Concern about health misinformation is longstanding, especially on the Internet.

METHODS

Using agent-based models, we considered the effects of such misinformation on a norovirus outbreak, and some methods for countering the possible impacts of "good" and "bad" health advice. The work explicitly models spread of physical disease and information (both online and offline) as two separate but interacting processes. The models have multiple stochastic elements; repeat model runs were made to identify parameter values that most consistently produced the desired target baseline scenario. Next, parameters were found that most consistently led to a scenario when outbreak severity was clearly made worse by circulating poor quality disease prevention advice. Strategies to counter "fake" health news were tested.

RESULTS

Reducing bad advice to 30% of total information or making at least 30% of people fully resistant to believing in and sharing bad health advice were effective thresholds to counteract the negative impacts of bad advice during a norovirus outbreak.

CONCLUSION

How feasible it is to achieve these targets within communication networks (online and offline) should be explored.

Application of the susceptible-infected-recovered deterministic model in a GII.P17 emergent norovirus strain outbreak in Romania in 2015

Purpose

This study shows the epidemiological profile of the first gastroenteritis outbreak of GII.P17 in the Romanian territory. An outbreak with such large amplitude in a European territory was previously undocumented.

Patients and methods

Using a cross-sectional design, with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) deterministic compartmental model for a fixed population, and the cluster method for establishing the high-incidence zones, we carried out our investigation by means of questionnaires containing personal data, affected collectivities, disease onset and duration, symptoms displayed, medical assistance provided, previous antibiotic intake where applicable, food consumption and water sources, and sanitation conditions. The confirmation of cases was done based on the typical norovirus gastroenteritis symptomatology and using three laboratory confirmations (by molecular diagnosis) for GII.P17-GII.17 genotype noroviruses from three patients.

Results

A gastroenteritis outbreak occurred in October-November 2015, affecting 328 people in Arad, a county in Western Romania, covering 44 neighbouring localities with a total population of 35,440 people. The study detected an inter-human transmission of the infection, with an intrafamilial risk of disease of 2.26 (95% CI 1.76 to 2.90) compared with the community transmission (in school collectivity). The basic reproduction number Ro dropped from 1.26 to 0.18 during weeks 43:44, after controlling the transmission by decontamination and isolation.

Conclusion

SIR made it possible to highlight the expansion of the emerging norovirus strain infection from community to family collectivities. This study provides practical solutions to limit disease cases, even in the absence of etiology, and shows the importance of sometimes underestimated traditional control methods.

Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model

OBJECTIVE

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health issue in many countries; however, its transmissibility in county-level outbreaks remains unclear. The aim of this study is to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD epidemics on both city level and county level, for a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of HFMD epidemics.

STUDY DESIGN

Simulation based on data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.

METHODS

The weekly number of reported HFMD cases from April 2009 to December 2017 in nine regions of Changsha City was collected. A susceptible-infectious-recovered model was used to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD. The reproduction number of reported cases during the ascending (denoted as R_asc) and descending (denoted as R_des) period was used to describe the transmissibility of HFMD.

RESULTS

The R_asc and R_des for HFMD in Changsha was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41-1.48) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.73), respectively. There was no statistical significance of R_asc values among nine regions (F = 1.056, P = 0.396), nor of R_des values among nine regions (F = 1.676, P = 0.106). The average R_asc (1.53, 95% CI: 1.46-1.61) from 2009 to 2012 was higher than the one (1.37, 95% CI: 1.34-1.40) from 2013 to 2017 (t = 3.974, P < 0.001), but the average R_des (0.67, 95% CI: 0.63-0.70) from 2009 to 2012 was lower than the one (0.74, 95% CI: 0.73-0.76) from 2013 to 2017 (t = -3.751, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemic of HFMD in Changsha City is still grim, and integrated strategies should be taken for controlling and preventing HFMD.