Geo-referenced multimedia environmental fate model (G-CIEMS): model formulation and comparison to the generic model and monitoring approaches

Pharmaceuticals and personal care product modelling: Unleashing artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities and impact on one health and sustainable development goals

The presence of pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) in the environment poses a significant threat to environmental resources, given their potential risks to ecosystems and human health, even in trace amounts. While mathematical modelling offers a comprehensive approach to understanding the fate and transport of PPCPs in the environment, such studies have garnered less attention compared to field and laboratory investigations. This review examines the current state of modelling PPCPs, focusing on their sources, fate and transport mechanisms, and interactions within the whole ecosystem. Emphasis is placed on critically evaluating and discussing the underlying principles, ongoing advancements, and applications of diverse multimedia models across geographically distinct regions. Furthermore, the review underscores the imperative of ensuring data quality, strategically planning monitoring initiatives, and leveraging cutting-edge modelling techniques in the quest for a more holistic understanding of PPCP dynamics. It also ventures into prospective developments, particularly the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) methodologies, to enhance the precision and predictive capabilities of PPCP models. In addition, the broader implications of PPCP modelling on sustainability development goals (SDG) and the One Health approach are also discussed. GIS-based modelling offers a cost-effective approach for incorporating time-variable parameters, enabling a spatially explicit analysis of contaminant fate. Swin-Transformer model enhanced with Normalization Attention Modules demonstrated strong groundwater level estimation with an R2 of 82 %. Meanwhile, integrating Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time-series with gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) data has been pivotal for assessing water-mass changes in the Indo-Gangetic basin, enhancing PPCP fate and transport modelling accuracy, though ongoing refinement is necessary for a comprehensive understanding of PPCP dynamics. The review aims to establish a framework for the future development of a comprehensive PPCP modelling approach, aiding researchers and policymakers in effectively managing water resources impacted by increasing PPCP levels.

Multi-media environmental fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in China: A systematic review of emissions, presence, transport modeling and health risks

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) are notorious persistent organic pollutants (POPs) with proven toxicity to human and ecosystems. This review critically evaluates existing research, emphasizing knowledge gaps regarding PCDD/F emissions, environmental behavior, human exposure, and associated risks in China. The current emission inventory of PCDD/Fs in China remains highly uncertain, both in terms of total emissions and emission trends. Moreover, existing monitoring data primarily focus on areas near pollution sources, limiting comprehensive understanding of the overall spatiotemporal characteristics of PCDD/F pollution. To address this, we propose a novel approach that integrates the Multi-media Urban Mode (MUM) model with an atmospheric chemical transport model that includes a dual adsorption model to capture gas-particle partitioning of PCDD/Fs in the atmosphere. This coupled model can simulate the transport and fate of PCDD/Fs in multi-media environments with high spatiotemporal resolution, facilitating a nuanced understanding of the impacts of emissions, climate, urbanization and other factors on PCDD/F pollution. Additionally, dietary ingestion, particularly from animal-derived foods, is identified as the predominant source (up to 98%) of human exposure to PCDD/Fs. While the changes in dietary structure, population distribution, and age structure can influence human exposure to PCDD/Fs, their impacts have not yet been quantified. The proposed model lays the foundation for a systematic assessment of health risks from PCDD/F exposure through various pathways by further incorporating a food chain model. Overall, this review offers a comprehensive strategy for assessing PCDD/F pollution, encompassing the entire continuum from emissions to environmental impacts.

Application of multimedia models for understanding the environmental behavior of volatile methylsiloxanes: Fate, transport, and bioaccumulation

Multimedia fate and transport models (MFTMs) describe how chemicals behave in the environment based on their inherent properties and the characteristics of receiving systems. We critically review the use of MFTMs for understanding the behavior of volatile methylsiloxanes (VMS). MFTMs have been used to predict the fate of VMS in wastewater treatment, rivers, lakes, marine systems, and the atmosphere, and to assess bioaccumulation and trophic transfers. More widely, they have been used to assess the overall persistence, long-range transport potential (LRTP), and the propensity for atmosphere-surface exchange. The application of MFTMs for VMS requires particularly careful selection of model inputs because the properties of VMS differ from those of most organic compounds. For example, although n-octanol/water partition coefficient (KOW ) values are high, air:water partition coefficient (KAW ) values are also high and n-octanol/air partition coefficient (KOA ) values are relatively low. In addition, organic carbon/water partition coefficient (KOC ) values are substantially lower than expectations based on KOW . This means that most empirical relationships between KOC and KOW are not appropriate. Good agreement between modeled and measured concentrations in air, sediment, and biota indicates that our understanding of environmental fate is reasonable. VMS compounds are "fliers" that principally partition to the atmosphere, implying high LRTP, although they have low redeposition potential. They are degraded in air (half-lives 3-10 days) and, thus, have low overall persistence. In water, exposure can be limited by hydrolysis, volatilization, and partitioning to sediments (where degradation half-lives are likely to be high). In food webs, they are influenced by metabolism in biota, which tends to drive trophic dilution (i.e., trophic magnification factors are often but not always <1). Key remaining uncertainties include the following: (i) the strength and direction of the temperature dependence for KOC ; (ii) the fate of atmospheric reaction products; and (iii) the magnitude of emissions to wastewater. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:599-621. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Forests effects on the environmental fates of organic pollutants in a tropical watershed

Poly-brominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), dioxins, furans and current-use pesticides (CUPs) are common organic pollutants that have received global scrutiny due to their association with adverse environmental and health impacts. However, there is limited previous work assessing their environmental fates in the context of tropical multi-use watersheds. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of forests on long-term environmental fate for some PBDEs, dioxins, furans and CUPs for a case study watershed of a tropical developing country (the Rio Cobre River drainage basin, Jamaica). Specifically, a dynamic, 16-compartment environmental multimedia model, RioShed, was developed and applied to calculate compartmental concentrations, as well as some long-term environmental fate metrics. Results indicate that the presence of tropical forests, especially those that are evergreen, reduced the atmospheric concentrations, atmospheric long-range transport potential, and the overall persistence of the study pollutants. Reductions in atmospheric concentrations by tropical forests were most enhanced for the more polar CUPs. Forest parameters that notably influenced soil concentration and/or overall persistence included the canopy drip parameter, the leaf area index and the wax erosion rate. The results of this research are expected to inform land-use and environmental management of the study area and similar tropical regions.

Spatially resolved environmental fate models: A review

Spatially resolved environmental models are important tools to introduce and highlight the spatial variability of the real world into modeling. Although various spatial models have been developed so far, yet the development and evaluation of these models remain a challenging task due to several difficulties related to model setup, computational cost, and obtaining high-resolution input data (e.g., monitoring and emission data). For example, atmospheric transport models can be used when high resolution predicted concentrations in atmospheric compartments are required, while spatial multimedia fate models may be preferred for regulatory risk assessment, life cycle impact assessment of chemicals, or when the partitioning of chemical substances in a multimedia environment is considered. The goal of this paper is to review and compare different spatially resolved environmental models, according to their spatial, temporal and chemical domains, with a closer insight into spatial multimedia fate models, to achieve a better understanding of their strengths and limitations. This review also points out several requirements for further improvement of existing models as well as for their integration.

An all-in-one tool for multipurpose ecological risk assessment and management (MeRAM) of chemical substances in aquatic environment

A quality-assured ecological risk assessment (ERA) requires enormous resources (time and labor) in collection/assessment of hazard data, as well as considerable expertise to interpret the risk. The ERA of chemicals is thereby considered difficult or impossible for those with little assessment experience and cumbersome or complicated for practitioners. To meet the concerns regarding ERA and accelerate the risk assessment and management of chemicals, we developed an all-in-one free tool for multi-purpose ecological risk assessment management (MeRAM) of chemical substances in aquatic environment called the AIST-MeRAM Ver. 2.0.0 (Copyright No: H28PRO-2007). It allows users from beginners to experts to conduct ERA without any preparation because all the necessary ecotoxicity test data and methodologies are available in the system. Approximately 270,000 ecotoxicity test data points for 3900 chemical substances together with the scientific methodologies from traditional simple hazard quotient (HQ) to more ecologically relevant complicated assessments such as species sensitivity distribution (SSD) and population-level assessment are embedded in the AIST-MeRAM. In addition, users can easily understand the Japanese regulatory RA and management of chemical substances due to a special function based on the Japanese Chemical Substance Control Law (CSCL). Here, we demonstrate a tiered ERA using the embedded sample data to evaluate and ensure the functions of AIST-MERAM. We show that the AIST-MeRAM can provide a comprehensive and accurate ERA, suggesting that it is a powerful IT solution for cumbersome ERA.

Evaluation of interregional consistency in associations between neonicotinoid insecticides and functions of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas

Neonicotinoid insecticides pose risks that need to be managed for conservation of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the associations between the estimated environmental concentrations of two neonicotinoid insecticides (imidacloprid and dinotefuran) and the total abundances of seven functional feeding groups (FFGs) of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas in four Japanese regions. Regional datasets of benthic invertebrate communities and environmental variables available for Japan were analyzed. The associations between neonicotinoid exposure and benthic functional groups in each region were evaluated by applying a partial redundancy analysis to each regional dataset. We then examined whether there was an interregionally consistent pattern in the observed associations to ascertain the general applicability of the associations. In two of the four regions, the associations of the total abundances of the seven FFGs with neonicotinoid concentrations were significant, suggesting negative effects of imidacloprid and dinotefuran on river ecosystem functions in these two Japanese regions. Moreover, although the associations in the remaining two regions were not significant, the pattern of associations of the total abundances of six of the FFGs (shredders, filter feeders, collectors, grazers, predators, and scavengers) with imidacloprid concentrations seemed to be consistent among the four regions. This implies broad-scale negative effects of imidacloprid on river ecosystem functions in urban rice-paddy areas. We did not, however, find any interregionally consistent patterns in the associations with dinotefuran concentrations. This may be related to the multicollinearity with the imidacloprid concentrations and/or the low maximum dinotefuran concentration relative to the toxicity values of this neonicotinoid. Therefore, the association between dinotefuran and river ecosystem functions requires additional investigation. We believe that this type of hypotheses-generating research using country-wide biomonitoring and exposure databases can be a great aid in future ecological risk assessment studies.

Georeferenced multimedia environmental fate of volatile methylsiloxanes modeled in the populous Tokyo Bay catchment basin

We investigated the multimedia fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) in the densely populated catchment basin of Tokyo Bay, Japan, by using a georeferenced multimedia model. We estimated the daily per person consumption rate of these compounds in Japan according to literature. Emissions to the atmosphere accounted for almost all of the emissions of these compounds to the environment. The majority of these compounds was predicted to be distributed in the atmosphere (about 60%) and sediment (about 40%). The advective flows in and out of the atmosphere over the Tokyo Bay catchment basin dominated the flows of these compounds. The sewerage systems contributed considerably to the transport and fate of D5 and D6 in water. They transported these compounds from households to discharge outlets of sewage treatment plants (STPs), which in turn accounted for approximately one quarter of the emission of these compounds to rivers and to Tokyo Bay. The wastewater treatment plants also effectively removed these compounds from the wastewater. The overall persistence of D5 and D6 in the catchment basin was estimated to be 3.8-9.5 days. The horizontal distributions of these compounds were similar among environmental compartments; high concentrations were generally observed in populated areas. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the D5 discharge rate to Tokyo Bay excluding the direct discharge from STPs and the D5 mass in the river compartment were sensitive to changes of the organic-carbon-water partition coefficient. Comparison with the concentrations in rivers measured recently in the target area showed that the model captured overall trends of low to high concentrations in rivers. However, there was some variability and a bias toward underprediction. The model provided a better fit to measurements for D5 than for D6. One potential factor contributing to the bias toward underprediction was underestimation of the consumption rates.

Validation of AIST-SHANEL Model Based on Spatiotemporally Extensive Monitoring Data of Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate in Japan: Toward a Better Strategy on Deriving Predicted Environmental Concentrations

Strategies for deriving predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) using environmental exposure models have become increasingly important in the environmental risk assessment of chemical substances. However, many strategies are not fully developed owing to uncertainties in the derivation of PECs across spatially extensive areas. Here, we used 3-year environmental monitoring data (river: 11 702 points; lake: 1867 points; sea: 12 points) on linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) in Japan to evaluate the ability of the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)-Standardized Hydrology-Based Assessment Tool for the Chemical Exposure Load (SHANEL) model developed to predict chemical concentrations in major Japanese rivers. The results indicate that the estimation ability of the AIST-SHANEL model conforms more closely to the actual measured values in rivers than it does for lakes and seas (correlation coefficient: 0.46; proportion within the 10× factor range: 82%). In addition, the 95th percentile, 90th percentile, 50th percentile, and mean values of the distributions of the measured values (14 µg/L, 8.2 µg/L, 0.88 µg/L, and 3.4 µg/L, respectively) and estimated values (19 µg/L, 13 µg/L, 1.4 µg/L, and 4.2 µg/L, respectively) showed high concordance. The results suggest that AIST-SHANEL may be useful in estimating summary statistics (e.g., 95th and 90th percentiles) of chemical concentrations in major rivers throughout Japan. Given its practical use and high accuracy, these environmental risk assessments are suitable for a wide range of regions and can be conducted using representative estimated values, such as the 95th percentile. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;15:750-759. © 2019 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

A review of multimedia transport and fate models for chemicals: Principles, features and applicability

The frequent use of chemicals has caused ecosystems and humans to be threatened due to their discharge into the environment. Multimedia environmental fate models could provide a comprehensive picture of transport behaviour and fate for organic chemicals in multiple environmental media. They have been designed and widely used for chemical risk assessment, chemical ranking and management support, and determination of chemical bioaccumulation. This study reviewed the principles, features and applicability of recent commonly used multimedia fate models from peer-reviewed literature. Fugacity-based and concentration-based models are now widely adopted for use in chemical fate evaluation, while they are more appropriate for volatile and semi-volatile chemicals. Or the fugacity-based models can use aquivalence equilibrium criterion to cations, anions and involatile chemicals. The MAMI and SESAMe models based on activity approach are applicable to neutral and ionizable molecules. However, interactions of ionic species with other water solutes are not taken into account in these models. Additionally, they could not directionally simulate how chemicals transported form one grid to another. Future attention should be focused on the reliability of transfer behaviour and fate of ionizable chemicals, as integrating the advantages of these two kinds of models into a reconstructed one may be a better choice. In a word, environmental multimedia models have been beneficial tools for chemical control and management, risk and effect estimation, and decision supporting.

Broad-scale effect of herbicides on functional properties in benthic invertebrate communities of rivers: An integrated analysis of biomonitoring and exposure evaluations

We conducted a broad-scale ecological effect assessment of agricultural chemicals where we combined biomonitoring databases of riverine invertebrate communities with predictions of environmental concentrations of chemicals, based on an exposure evaluation model for Japanese rivers. One of the difficulties of broad-scale assessment arises from the use of biomonitoring databases for which the monitoring sites are often spread across different geographic regions, with varying species compositions and heterogeneous environmental factors. This problem was circumvented using a trait-based approach, which extracts patterns of ecological properties of species response to changes in either chemical concentration or environmental factors. We identified groups of species that had particular trait categories that were negatively correlated with herbicide pollutants (the predicted concentration divided by the acute toxic concentration). Numerical abundances of species groups classified by trait categories had more sensitive responses to herbicide pollutants than total species abundance. However, a finding that trait diversity and species diversity indexes in the communities examined did not change with herbicide pollutants means that the two indexes showed resistance to chemical stresses. We inferred that the reason for the greater resistance in terms of trait and species diversity was that compositional changes of species caused by increasing herbicide pollutions were simply a shift from communities composed of susceptible species to those composed only of tolerant species.

A global framework to model spatial ecosystems exposure to home and personal care chemicals in Asia

This paper analyzes spatially ecosystem exposure to home and personal care (HPC) chemicals, accounting for market data and environmental processes in hydrological water networks, including multi-media fate and transport. We present a global modeling framework built on ScenAT (spatial scenarios of emission), SimpleTreat (sludge treatment plants), and Pangea (spatial multi-scale multimedia fate and transport of chemicals), that we apply across Asia to four chemicals selected to cover a variety of applications, volumes of production and emission, and physico-chemical and environmental fate properties: the anionic surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulphonate (LAS), the antimicrobial triclosan (TCS), the personal care preservative methyl paraben (MeP), and the emollient decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). We present maps of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and compare them with monitored values. LAS emission levels and PECs are two to three orders of magnitude greater than for other substances, yet the literature about monitored levels of LAS in Asia is very limited. We observe a good agreement for TCS in freshwater (Pearson r=0.82, for 253 monitored values covering 12 streams), a moderate agreement in general, and a significant model underestimation for MeP in sediments. While most differences could be explained by uncertainty in both chemical/hydrological parameters (DT50_water, DT50_sediments, K_oc, f_oc, TSS) and monitoring sites (e.g. spatial/temporal design), the underestimation of MeP concentrations in sediments may involve potential natural sources. We illustrate the relevance of local evaluations for short-lived substances in fresh water (LAS, MeP), and their inadequacy for substances with longer half-lives (TCS, D5). This framework constitutes a milestone towards higher tier exposure modeling approaches for identifying areas of higher chemical concentration, and linking large-scale fate modeling with (sub) catchment-scale ecological scenarios; a major limitation in model accuracy comes from the discrepancy between streams routed on a gridded, 0.5°×0.5° global hydrological network and actual locations of streams and monitoring sites.

Source-to-exposure assessment with the Pangea multi-scale framework - case study in Australia

Effective planning of airshed pollution mitigation is often constrained by a lack of integrative analysis able to relate the relevant emitters to the receptor populations at risk. Both emitter and receptor perspectives are therefore needed to consistently inform emission and exposure reduction measures. This paper aims to extend the Pangea spatial multi-scale multimedia framework to evaluate source-to-receptor relationships of industrial sources of organic pollutants in Australia. Pangea solves a large compartmental system in parallel by block to determine arrays of masses at steady-state for 100 000+ compartments and 4000+ emission scenarios, and further computes population exposure by inhalation and ingestion. From an emitter perspective, radial spatial distributions of population intakes show high spatial variation in intake fractions from 0.68 to 33 ppm for benzene, and from 0.006 to 9.5 ppm for formaldehyde, contrasting urban, rural, desert, and sea source locations. Extending analyses to the receptor perspective, population exposures from the combined emissions of 4101 Australian point sources are more extended for benzene that travels over longer distances, versus formaldehyde that has a more local impact. Decomposing exposure per industrial sector shows petroleum and steel industry as the highest contributing industrial sectors for benzene, whereas the electricity sector and petroleum refining contribute most to formaldehyde exposures. The source apportionment identifies the main sources contributing to exposure at five locations. Overall, this paper demonstrates high interest in addressing exposures from both an emitter perspective well-suited to inform product oriented approaches such as LCA, and from a receptor perspective for health risk mitigation.

Development and validation of a simulation method, PeCHREM, for evaluating spatio-temporal concentration changes of paddy herbicides in rivers

In pesticide risk management in Japan, predicted environmental concentrations are estimated by a tiered approach, and the Ministry of the Environment also performs field surveys to confirm the maximum concentrations of pesticides with risk concerns. To contribute to more efficient and effective field surveys, we developed the Pesticide Chemicals High Resolution Estimation Method (PeCHREM) for estimating spatially and temporally variable emissions of various paddy herbicides from paddy fields to the environment. We used PeCHREM and the G-CIEMS multimedia environmental fate model to predict day-to-day environmental concentration changes of 25 herbicides throughout Japan. To validate the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model, we also conducted a field survey, in which river waters were sampled at least once every two weeks at seven sites in six prefectures from April to July 2009. In 20 of 139 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicides were detected in at least three samples, all observed concentrations differed from the corresponding prediction by less than one order of magnitude. We also compared peak concentrations and the dates on which the concentrations reached peak values (peak dates) between predictions and observations. The peak concentration differences between predictions and observations were less than one order of magnitude in 66% of the 166 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicide was detected in river water. The observed and predicted peak dates differed by less than two weeks in 79% of these 166 combinations. These results confirm that the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of surveys by predicting the peak concentrations and peak dates of various herbicides.

Multiscale Spatial Modeling of Human Exposure from Local Sources to Global Intake

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals, are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea, an innovative multiscale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties are expressed as the evolution of the population intake fraction through inhalation and ingestion as a function of the distance from sources. For substances with atmospheric half-lives longer than a week, less than 20% of the global population intake through inhalation (median of 126 emission scenarios) can occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ∼10 000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route which locations minimize global intakes. Maps of global intake fractions associated with each emission location show clear patterns associated with population and agriculture production densities.

A moni-modelling approach to manage groundwater risk to pesticide leaching at regional scale

Historically, the approach used to manage risk of chemical contamination of water bodies is based on the use of monitoring programmes, which provide a snapshot of the presence/absence of chemicals in water bodies. Monitoring is required in the current EU regulations, such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), as a tool to record temporal variation in the chemical status of water bodies. More recently, a number of models have been developed and used to forecast chemical contamination of water bodies. These models combine information of chemical properties, their use, and environmental scenarios. Both approaches are useful for risk assessors in decision processes. However, in our opinion, both show flaws and strengths when taken alone. This paper proposes an integrated approach (moni-modelling approach) where monitoring data and modelling simulations work together in order to provide a common decision framework for the risk assessor. This approach would be very useful, particularly for the risk management of pesticides at a territorial level. It fulfils the requirement of the recent Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive. In fact, the moni-modelling approach could be used to identify sensible areas where implement mitigation measures or limitation of use of pesticides, but even to effectively re-design future monitoring networks or to better calibrate the pedo-climatic input data for the environmental fate models. A case study is presented, where the moni-modelling approach is applied in Lombardy region (North of Italy) to identify groundwater vulnerable areas to pesticides. The approach has been applied to six active substances with different leaching behaviour, in order to highlight the advantages in using the proposed methodology.

A large-scale model for simulating the fate & transport of organic contaminants in river basins

We present STREAM-EU (Spatially and Temporally Resolved Exposure Assessment Model for EUropean basins), a novel dynamic mass balance model for predicting the environmental fate of organic contaminants in river basins. STREAM-EU goes beyond the current state-of-the-science in that it can simulate spatially and temporally-resolved contaminant concentrations in all relevant environmental media (surface water, groundwater, snow, soil and sediments) at the river basin scale. The model can currently be applied to multiple organic contaminants in any river basin in Europe, but the model framework is adaptable to any river basin in any continent. We simulate the environmental fate of perfluoroctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) in the Danube River basin and compare model predictions to recent monitoring data. The model predicts PFOS and PFOA concentrations that agree well with measured concentrations for large stretches of the river. Disagreements between the model predictions and measurements in some river sections are shown to be useful indicators of unknown contamination sources to the river basin.

Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models

Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. The authors developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled assessment of ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation. First, risk maps of 5 herbicides (pretilachlor, butachlor, simetryn, mefenacet, and esprocarb) were created from the spatial predictions of environmental concentrations and 50% inhibitory concentrations of the herbicides. Simulations of algal density dynamics at high-risk sites were then conducted by incorporating the predicted temporal dynamics of the environmental concentration of each herbicide at the sites. The results suggested that the risk of pretilachlor was clearly the highest of the 5 herbicides, in terms of both the spatial distributions and the temporal durations. The present study highlights the importance of integrating exposure models and effect models to clarify spatial and temporal risk and to develop management plans for chemical exposure that shows high spatiotemporal variation.

Temporal trends for inflow of perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) to Tokyo Bay, Japan, estimated by a receptor-oriented approach

We estimated inflow rates of perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) to Tokyo Bay, Japan, between February 2004 and February 2011 by a receptor-oriented approach based on quarterly samplings of the bay water. Temporal trends in these inflow rates are an important basis for evaluating changes in PFOS and PFOA emissions in the Tokyo Bay catchment basin. A mixing model estimated the average concentrations of these compounds in the freshwater inflow to the bay, which were then multiplied by estimated freshwater inflow rates to obtain the inflow rates of these compounds. The receptor-oriented approach enabled us to comprehensively cover inflow to the bay, including inflow via direct discharge to the bay. On a logarithmic basis, the rate of inflow for PFOS decreased gradually, particularly after 2006, whereas that for PFOA exhibited a marked stepwise decrease from 2006 to 2007. The rate of inflow for PFOS decreased from 730kg/y during 2004-2006 to 160kg/y in 2010, whereas that for PFOA decreased from 2000kg/y during 2004-2006 to 290kg/y in 2010. These reductions probably reflected reductions in the use and emission of these compounds and their precursors in the Tokyo Bay catchment basin. Our estimated per-person inflow rates (i.e., inflow rates divided by the estimated population in the basin) for PFOS were generally comparable to previously reported per-person waterborne emission rates in Japan and other countries, whereas those for PFOA were generally higher than previously reported per-person waterborne emission rates. A comparison with previous estimates of household emission rates of these compounds suggested that our inflow estimates included a considerable contribution from point industrial sources.

Development and evaluation of a dynamic multimedia model (ECORAME) for local scale assessment of aquatic ecological exposure to chemicals originating from sources in environmental media

Use of multimedia models (MMMs) has been limited in exposure assessment for aquatic ecosystems at local scale typically due to their coarse spatial resolution and inability to predict the individual concentrations of multiple streams within a watershed cell. An MMM named ECORAME is presented which overcomes the limitations by treating each water segment as an independent cell rather than a compartment within a watershed cell. This offers two advantages for exposure assessment, i.e., i) the spatial resolution for water is readily adjustable and ii) multiple water streams within one watershed cell could be handled individually. Model evaluation with respect to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) demonstrated that ECORAME's prediction of relative concentration agreed with measured values within a factor of five or less. A case study of PAHs using ECORAME shows that the concentration can change by more than 10 fold over the 40km main stream stretch of the Han River in Seoul, Korea. The concentration difference among multiple streams in the same watershed cell could be substantial (greater than 100 fold). Besides a need of finer spatial resolutons than those typically used in MMMs, the results strongly suggest that exposure prediction capability for individual streams in the same watershed is necessary for local scale assessment. As demostrated with ECORAME, the need can be effectively met by handling the water segments as individual cells in future MMMs.

Investigating the need for complex vs. simple scenarios to improve predictions of aquatic ecosystem exposure with the SoilPlus model

A spatially-explicit version of the recent multimedia fate model SoilPlus was developed and applied to predict the runoff of three pesticides in a small agricultural watershed in north-eastern Italy. In order to evaluate model response to increasing spatial resolution, a tiered simulation approach was adopted, also using a dynamic model for surface water (DynA model), to predict the fate of pesticides in runoff water and sediment, and concentrations in river water. Simulation outputs were compared to water concentrations measured in the basin. Results showed that a high spatial resolution and scenario complexity improved model predictions of metolachlor and terbuthylazine in runoff to an acceptable performance (R(2) = 0.64-0.70). The importance was also shown of a field-based database of properties (i.e. soil texture and organic carbon, rainfall and water flow, pesticides half-life in soil) in reducing the distance between predicted and measured surface water concentrations and its relevance for risk assessment.

Facing complexity through informed simplifications: a research agenda for aquatic exposure assessment of nanoparticles

Exposure assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) is a challenging task mainly due to the novel properties of these new materials and the complexity caused by a wide range of particle characteristics, ENP-containing products and possible environmental interactions. We here present a research agenda in which we propose to face the complexity associated with ENP exposure assessment through informed and systematic simplifications. Exposure modelling is presented as a method for addressing complexity by identifying processes dominant for the fate of ENPs in the environment and enabling an iterative learning process by studying different emission and fate scenarios. Furthermore, the use of models is important to highlight most pressing research needs. For this reason, we also strongly encourage improved communication and collaboration between modellers and experimental scientists. Feedback between modellers and experimental scientists is crucial in order to understand the big picture of ENP exposure assessment and to establish common research strategies. Through joint research efforts and projects, the field of ENP exposure assessment can greatly improve and significantly contribute to a comprehensive and systematic risk assessment of ENPs.

Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale

Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: - identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and - reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km(2) regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk.

High-resolution inventory of Japanese anthropogenic mercury emissions

Heavy metals like mercury that are emitted into the environment remain there indefinitely, posing a long-term threat to both the environment and human health. Elemental mercury is volatile and is in gaseous form, and because of the long residence time, transported over long distances. Comprehensive control of mercury emissions therefore remains an important international issue. The crucial steps for designing effective approaches for such control include the quantification of mercury emissions by sources and the identification of geographical characteristics of the emissions. In this study a detailed, high-resolution inventory of Japanese mercury emissions in 2005 was developed to improve understanding of their geographical distribution. Proceeding from a national emissions inventory per source category, emissions were spatially allocated with increasing geographical resolution in a stepwise procedure using statistics from geographic information resources, yielding mercury emissions per prefecture, per municipality and per grid cell of approximately 1 × 1 km. The five prefectures with the highest emissions were Fukuoka, Yamaguchi, Hyogo, Oita, and Hokkaido, accounting for 35.2% of all emissions. In each prefecture a small number of municipalities account for a major share of emissions. Distribution by grid cell is characterized by a concentration of 50% of all emissions in a mere 32 of the 255 954 grid cells over which emissions are distributed in this study. It was also quantitatively confirmed that use of larger grid cells leads to greater uncertainty in emissions distribution. Problems with data collection are clarified and measures to improve the accuracy of future estimation are proposed.

Modeling redistribution of α-HCH in Chinese soil induced by environment factors

This study explores long-term environmental fate of α-HCH in China from 1952 to 2007 using ChnGPERM (Chinese Gridded Pesticide Emission and Residue Model). The model captures well the temporal and spatial variations of α-HCH concentration in Chinese soils by comparing with a number of measured data across China in different periods. The results demonstrate α-HCH grasshopping effect in Eastern China and reveal several important features of the chemical in Northeast and Southeast China. It is found that Northeast China is a prominent sink region of α-HCH emitted from Chinese sources and α-HCH contamination in Southwest China is largely attributed to foreign sources. Southeast China is shown to be a major source contributing to α-HCH contamination in Northeast China, incurred by several environmental factors including temperature, soil organic carbon content, wind field and precipitation.

Spatially explicit multimedia fate models for pollutants in Europe: state of the art and perspectives

A review by Hollander et al. (in preparation), discusses the relative potentials, advantages and shortcomings of spatial and non spatial models of chemical fate, highlighting that spatially explicit models may be needed for specific purposes. The present paper reviews the state of the art in spatially explicit chemical fate and transport modeling in Europe. We summarize the three main approaches currently adopted in spatially explicit modeling, namely (1) multiple box models, (2) numerical solutions of simultaneous advection-dispersion equations (ADE) in air, soil and water, and (3) the development of meta-models. As all three approaches experience limitations, we describe in further detail geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling as an alternative approach allowing a simple, yet spatially explicit description of chemical fate. We review the input data needed, and the options available for their retrieval at the European scale. We also discuss the importance of, and limitations in model evaluation. We observe that the high uncertainty in chemical emissions and physico-chemical behavior in the environment make realistic simulations difficult to obtain. Therefore we envisage a shift in model use from process simulation to hypothesis testing, in which explaining the discrepancies between observed and computed chemical concentrations in the environment takes importance over prediction per se. This shift may take advantage of using simple models in GIS with residual uses of complex models for detailed studies. It also calls for tighter joint interpretation of models and spatially distributed monitoring datasets, and more refined spatial representation of environmental drivers such as landscape and climate variables, and better emission estimates. In summary, we conclude that the problem is not "how to compute" (i.e. emphasis on numerical methods, spatial/temporal discretization, quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis...) but "what to compute" (i.e. emphasis on spatial distribution of emissions, and the depiction of appropriate spatial patterns of environmental drivers).

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed. Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies. Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.

A GIS-based approach for modeling the fate and transport of pollutants in Europe

This paper presents an approach to estimate chemical concentration in multiple environmental media (soil, water, and the atmosphere) with the sole use of basic geographical information system (GIS) operations and, particularly, map algebra. This allows solving mass balance equations in a different way from the traditional methods involving numerical or analytical solution of systems of equations, producing maps of chemical fluxes and concentrations only through combinations of maps of emissions and environmental removal or transfer rates. Benchmarking with the well-established EMEP MSCE-POP model shows that the method provides consistent results with this more detailed description. When available, experimental evidence equally supports the proposed method in relation to the more complex approaches.

Probabilistic estimation of dietary exposure of the general Japanese population to dioxins in fish, using region-specific fish monitoring data

Many studies show that dietary consumption of fish is the greatest contributor to dioxin exposure of humans in Japan. To establish a link between ocean contamination and human exposure to dioxins in fish, we proposed a method of estimating exposure by integrating region-specific measured concentrations of dioxins in fish samples and information on the production and import-export volumes of fish. The advantage over "total diet studies" (TDS) was that the proposed method could analyze the impact of the geographical variability of ocean contamination on human exposure to dioxins in fish; this may help us to apply more effective measures against dioxin exposure. Probabilistic distributions (probability density functions (PDFs)) were assigned to express the variability in the results of monitoring dioxin concentrations in fish from coastal areas divided according to prefecture, and from offshore and distant waters and imported sources. The Monte Carlo technique was applied for probabilistic estimation of dietary exposure of the general Japanese population to dioxins in fish. The mean and 5th to 95th percentile range of dietary exposure were estimated, respectively, as 67.12 and 22.65-184.35 pg toxic equivalent per day. Sensitivity analysis showed that some specific coastal areas with higher dioxin levels in fish and some with larger production volumes of fish impacted more than others to total exposure and may thus attract priority in the implementation of dioxin abatement measures.

Influence of the large grid size used in a multimedia mass balance model (POPsME) on the exposure assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans

A multimedia mass balance model (MMM), POPsME, was evaluated for its performance to assess the fate and transport of 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/Fs in Seoul and a neighboring area (150 km x 150 km) in Korea. As part of the evaluation, the effects of the grid size with the homogeneous mixing assumption were estimated on the sign and magnitude of the prediction bias. The prediction compared with the monitoring data generally within 1 order of magnitude. In the presence of a concentration gradient within individual cells of 30 km x 30 km,the prediction bias for air and soil tended to increase with the distance from the sources. It was observed that the ratio of the predicted to the measured values could vary more than 4 times with the location of the monitoring site. Use of the large grid size in POPsME (and perhaps other MMMs) resulted in overpredictions for a major portion of the model domain at the cost of underprediction for limited areas nearthe sources. Beyond the source areas, a substantial contribution of the total prediction bias originated from the congeners with a large atmospheric loss rate and small TEF value. On a TEQ basis, therefore, the magnitude of the overpredictions could be significantly reduced as compared to that of the underprediction for the source areas.

Spatial variance in multimedia mass balance models: comparison of LOTOS-EUROS and SimpleBox for PCB-153

The aim of this study was to determine whether nested generic box models can be used to predict spatial variance. An inter-comparison study was performed for the nested box model SimpleBox, and the spatially resolved model LOTOS-EUROS, using PCB-153 emissions in Europe as an example. We compared the two models concerning (1) average environmental concentrations, (2) spatial concentration variances, (3) spatial concentration patterns (maps), and (4) agreement with measured concentrations for the air and soil compartments. In SimpleBox, the spatial concentration variances and patterns were calculated subsequently for each separate grid cell surrounded by a regional and a continental shell with homogeneous, averaged circumstances. Average European PCB-153 concentrations calculated by LOTOS-EUROS and SimpleBox for the period 1981-2000 agree well for the air and soil compartments. Moreover, the predicted concentrations of both models are in line with the measured PCB-153 concentrations in Europe during that period. For PCB-153, the prediction of spatial concentration variances with the nested multimedia fate model SimpleBox performs adequately in most cases, except for the lower concentration boundary in the air compartment. It is concluded that SimpleBox can be used to predict the spatial maximum and average concentrations of PCB-153 in the air and soil compartments. The proposed method has to be tested systematically for different types of compounds, emission scenarios, environmental compartments and spatial scales in order to allow conclusions about the general applicability of the method.

Assessment of Environmental Fate and Exposure Variability of Organic Contaminants

Advanced fate assessment and its application/implication for hazardous chemicals is discussed. The spatially resolved fate assessment of chemicals has been performed using a newly developed spatially resolved multimedia environmental fate model (G-CIEMS: Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) based on the geographical information system environment. The G-CIEMS modeling system has roughly 5x5-km resolution on the entire Japanese terrestrial region, combining a gridded-air and catchment-based surface and river geographic structure. A summary of the model description is given and validation results are discussed, which showed generally acceptable agreement between measured and simulated environmental levels for several tested chemicals. By applying the results of spatially resolved environmental concentration, the geographic distribution of exposure to humans is estimated, which showed that the majority of exposure occurred in Japan's land area with higher environmental concentration at the level of 99 percentiles or higher. The impact on the geographic distribution of environmental levels on human exposure from fish is analyzed based on monitoring, modeling, and several social and fisheries statistics. The results of estimation were compared to those of total diet studies. The estimated results are in a range close to the results of the total diet survey and thus basic validation was achieved in this study. However, as the nature of samples differed, more in-depth comparison may be necessary for future study.

Site-dependent life-cycle analysis by the SAME approach: its concept usefulness, and application to the calculation of embodied impact intensity by means of an input-output analysis

This paper describes a practical approach to site-dependent life-cycle analysis (SDLCA) that differentiates site-dependent environmental impacts from a system's processes by considering the geographical conditions of each process. This approach converts an environmental output into its impacts by using site-dependent characterization factors (SDCFs). This approach defines an area-the Spatial Area of iMpact Equivalency (SAME)-within the boundaries of the geographical system during site-dependent life-cycle inventory (SDLCI) analysis and calculates an environmental output from a process for the SAMEs. Each SAME represents a collection of geographical areas with internally homogeneous environmental impacts and can be mapped using a geographic information system. Preparing a SDLCI and SDCFs based on SAMEs facilitates the implementation of SDLCA by permitting the use of fewer regions during SDLCI. To demonstrate application of the SAME approach, an embodied impact intensity was formulated; it quantifies the impact directly and indirectly on the basis of the unit activity of a sector by means of input-output analysis with SDCFs. The validity of using SAMEs for SDLCA is demonstrated through two case studies: one studying suspended particulate matter, and one studying benzene. In both cases, the impact intensities are calculated using the SAME approach and the results are compared with those of site-generic LCI.