Susceptibility of human populations to environmental exposure to organic contaminants

Association between exposure to chemical mixtures and epigenetic ageing biomarkers: Modifying effects of thyroid hormones and physical activity

Evidence on the effects of internal chemical mixture exposures on biological age is limited. It also remains unclear whether hormone homeostasis and lifestyle factors can modify such a relationship. Based on the Biomarkers for Air Pollutants Exposure (BAPE) study, which involved healthy older adults aged 60-69 years in China, we found that chemical mixture exposures, including metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), phthalates (PAEs), and organophosphate esters (OPEs), were significantly associated with shortened DNAmTL and accelerated SkinBloodClock, in which PFASs and OPEs in blood were the primary contributors to DNAmTL, while metals and PAEs had relatively higher contributions in urine. Furthermore, lower levels of thyroxin appeared to exacerbate the adverse effects of environmental chemicals on epigenetic ageing but relatively higher levels of physical activity had the beneficial impact. These findings may have important implications for the development of healthy ageing strategy and aged care policy, particularly in light of the global acceleration of population ageing.

Assessing disparities in Americans' exposure to PCBs and PBDEs based on NHANES pooled biomonitoring data

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) has been continuously biomonitoring Americans' exposure to two families of harmful environmental chemicals: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). However, biomonitoring these chemicals is expensive. To save cost, in 2005, NHANES resorted to pooled biomonitoring; i.e., amalgamating individual specimens to form a pool and measuring chemical levels from pools. Despite being publicly available, these pooled data gain limited applications in health studies. Among the few studies using these data, racial/age disparities were detected, but there is no control for confounding effects. These disadvantages are due to the complexity of pooled measurements and a dearth of statistical tools. Herein, we developed a regression-based method to unzip pooled measurements, which facilitated a comprehensive assessment of disparities in exposure to these chemicals. We found increasing dependence of PCBs on age and income, whereas PBDEs were the highest among adolescents and seniors and were elevated among the low-income population. In addition, Hispanics had the lowest PCBs and PBDEs among all demographic groups after controlling for potential confounders. These findings can guide the development of population-specific interventions to promote environmental justice. Moreover, both chemical levels declined throughout the period, indicating the effectiveness of existing regulatory policies.

The impact of mercury contamination on human health in the Arctic: A state of the science review

The 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Mercury (Hg) Assessment is motivated by Arctic populations, and most notably Indigenous Peoples in the region, who are particularly vulnerable to Hg pollution. The objective of this review paper is to answer the following AMAP policy-relevant question: what is the human health impact of Hg pollution in the Arctic? In doing so, this state of the science review paper builds on information published 10 years ago in the last AMAP Hg assessment. The synthesized results demonstrate that: a) global influences (e.g., sources and transport pathways, biogeochemical processes, climate change, globalization) drive Hg exposures into human communities; b) Hg exposures are realized through dietary intake of certain country food items, and that new exposure science approaches are helping to deepen understandings; c) the nutritional and cultural benefits of country foods are immense, though a dietary transition is underway raising concerns over metabolic syndrome and broader issues of food security as well as cultural and social well-being; d) blood Hg measures are among the highest worldwide based on the results of human biomonitoring studies; e) Hg exposures are associated with adverse health outcomes across life stages (e.g., neurodevelopmental outcomes in young children to cardiovascular disease in adults); and f) risk communication needs to be balanced, targeted and clear, culturally appropriate, and be done collaboratively. These synthesized findings are particularly timely and policy-relevant given that the Minamata Convention entered into legal force worldwide in 2017 as a regulatory scheme to reduce the use and environmental release of Hg in order to protect human health and the environment. The Convention was influenced by health concerns raised by northern populations as indicated in the preamble text which makes reference to "the particular vulnerabilities of Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous communities".

Model-based exploration of the variability in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) bioaccumulation factors: The influence of physiology and trophic relationships

Because dietary consumption of fish is often a major vector of human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), much effort is directed toward a quantitative understanding of fish bioaccumulation using mechanistic models. However, many such models fail to explicitly consider how uptake and loss rate constants relate to fish physiology. We calculated the bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of hypothetical POPs, with octanol-water partition coefficients ranging from 10^4.5 to 10^8.5 , in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) with a food-web bioaccumulation model that uses bioenergetics to ensure that physiological parameters applied to a species are internally consistent. We modeled fish in 6 Canadian lakes (Great Slave Lake, Lake Ontario, Source Lake, Happy Isle Lake, Lake Opeongo, and Lake Memphremagog) to identify the factors that cause the BAFs of differently sized lake trout to vary between and within lakes. When comparing differently sized lake trout within a lake, larger fish tend to have the highest BAF because they allocate less energy toward growth than smaller fish and have higher activity levels. When comparing fish from different lakes, the model finds that diet composition and prey energy density become important in determining the BAF, in addition to activity and the amount of total energy allocated to growth. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:831-840. © 2019 SETAC.

Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific

Climate change increases exposure and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine organisms, posing substantial ecophysiological and ecotoxicological risks. Here, we applied a trophodynamic ecosystem model to examine the bioaccumulation of organic mercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a Northeastern Pacific marine food web under climate change. We found largely heterogeneous sensitivity in climate-pollution impacts between chemicals and trophic groups. Concentration of MeHg and PCBs in top predators, including resident killer whales, is projected to be amplified by 8 and 3%, respectively, by 2100 under a high carbon emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) relative to a no-climate change control scenario. However, the level of amplification increases with higher carbon emission scenario for MeHg, but decreases for PCBs. Such idiosyncratic responses are shaped by the differences in bioaccumulation pathways between MeHg and PCBs, and the modifications of food web dynamics between different levels of climate change. Climate-induced pollutant amplification in mid-trophic level predators (Chinook salmon) are projected to be higher (~10%) than killer whales. Overall, the predicted trophic magnification factor is ten-fold higher in MeHg than in PCBs under high CO₂ emissions. This contribution highlights the importance of understanding the interactions with anthropogenic organic pollutants in assessing climate risks on marine ecosystems.

Predicting global scale exposure of humans to PCB 153 from historical emissions

Predicting human exposure to an environmental contaminant based on its emissions is one of the great challenges of environmental chemistry. It has been done successfully on a local or regional scale for some persistent organic pollutants. Here we assess whether it can be done at a global scale, using PCB 153 as a test chemical. The global multimedia fate model BETR Global and the human exposure model ACC-HUMAN were employed to predict the concentration of PCB 153 in human milk for 56 countries around the world from a global historical emissions scenario. The modeled concentrations were compared with measurements in pooled human milk samples from the UNEP/WHO Global Monitoring Plan. The modeled and measured concentrations were highly correlated (r = 0.76, p < 0.0001), and the concentrations were predicted within a factor of 4 for 49 of 78 observations. Modeled concentrations of PCB 153 in human milk were higher than measurements for some European countries, which may reflect weaknesses in the assumptions made for food sourcing and an underestimation of the rate of decrease of concentrations in air during the last decades. Conversely, modeled concentrations were lower than measurements in West African countries, and more work is needed to characterize exposure vectors in this region.

Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants.

Ranking REACH registered neutral, ionizable and ionic organic chemicals based on their aquatic persistency and mobility

The contaminants that have the greatest chances of appearing in drinking water are those that are mobile enough in the aquatic environment to enter drinking water sources and persistent enough to survive treatment processes. Herein a screening procedure to rank neutral, ionizable and ionic organic compounds for being persistent and mobile organic compounds (PMOCs) is presented and applied to the list of industrial substances registered under the EU REACH legislation as of December 2014. This comprised 5155 identifiable, unique organic structures. The minimum cut-off criteria considered for PMOC classification herein are a freshwater half-life >40 days, which is consistent with the REACH definition of freshwater persistency, and a log D_oc < 4.5 between pH 4-10 (where D_oc is the organic carbon-water distribution coefficient). Experimental data were given the highest priority, followed by data from an array of available quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs), and as a third resort, an original Iterative Fragment Selection (IFS) QSAR. In total, 52% of the unique REACH structures made the minimum criteria to be considered a PMOC, and 21% achieved the highest PMOC ranking (half-life > 40 days, log D_oc < 1.0 between pH 4-10). Only 9% of neutral substances received the highest PMOC ranking, compared to 30% of ionizable compounds and 44% of ionic compounds. Predicted hydrolysis products for all REACH parents (contributing 5043 additional structures) were found to have higher PMOC rankings than their parents, due to increased mobility but not persistence. The fewest experimental data available were for ionic compounds; therefore, their ranking is more uncertain than neutral and ionizable compounds. The most sensitive parameter for the PMOC ranking was freshwater persistency, which was also the parameter that QSARs performed the most poorly at predicting. Several prioritized drinking water contaminants in the EU and USA, and other contaminants of concern, were identified as PMOCs. This identification and ranking procedure for PMOCs can be part of a strategy to better identify contaminants that pose a threat to drinking water sources.

Mechanistic Pharmacokinetic Modeling of the Bioamplification of Persistent Lipophilic Organic Pollutants in Humans during Weight Loss

Bioamplification means the liberation of persistent lipophilic organic pollutants (PLOPs) into blood from their storage in inert adipose tissue during rapid weight loss. Here, using a modified mechanistic pharmacokinetic model, we investigated how chemical properties and anthropometric parameters interact to influence the bioamplification of various PLOPs in humans. The model succeeds in reproducing literature documented weight loss-induced increments in human blood PLOP concentrations. We simulated the degree of bioamplification, as characterized by the bioamplification factor (BAmF), of hypothetical PLOPs with different combinations of partitioning and biotransformation properties at various rates of lipid loss. We also investigated how BAmF evolves with the duration of weight loss. Results show that bioamplification is expected to occur for any chemical with even moderate lipophilicity (log K_OW > 2 and log K_OA > 6) as long as the half-life for metabolic elimination is long relative to the time scale of relative lipid loss (e.g., exceeding 10⁴ h in the case of lipid loss of 3 kg month^-1 with an initial lipid mass of 40 kg). While BAmF of a chemical is time-variant, whether bioamplification occurs for a chemical or not is independent of the duration of weight loss. The successful application of such a simple model demonstrates that it is the lipid dynamics that predominantly govern the dynamics of PLOPs rather than vice versa.

The Global Food System as a Transport Pathway for Hazardous Chemicals: The Missing Link between Emissions and Exposure

BACKGROUND

Food is a major pathway for human exposure to hazardous chemicals. The modern food system is becoming increasingly complex and globalized, but models for food-borne exposure typically assume locally derived diets or use concentrations directly measured in foods without accounting for food origin. Such approaches may not reflect actual chemical intakes because concentrations depend on food origin, and representative analysis is seldom available. Processing, packaging, storage, and transportation also impart different chemicals to food and are not yet adequately addressed. Thus, the link between environmental emissions and realistic human exposure is effectively broken.

OBJECTIVES

We discuss the need for a fully integrated treatment of the modern industrialized food system, and we propose strategies for using existing models and relevant supporting data sources to track chemicals during production, processing, packaging, storage, and transport.

DISCUSSION

Fate and bioaccumulation models describe how chemicals distribute in the environment and accumulate through local food webs. Human exposure models can use concentrations in food to determine body burdens based on individual or population characteristics. New models now include the impacts of processing and packaging but are far from comprehensive. We propose to close the gap between emissions and exposure by utilizing a wider variety of models and data sources, including global food trade data, processing, and packaging models.

CONCLUSIONS

A comprehensive approach that takes into account the complexity of the modern global food system is essential to enable better prediction of human exposure to chemicals in food, sound risk assessments, and more focused risk abatement strategies. Citation: Ng CA, von Goetz N. 2017. The global food system as a transport pathway for hazardous chemicals: the missing link between emissions and exposure. Environ Health Perspect 125:1-7; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP168.

Deterministic modeling of the exposure of individual participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to polychlorinated biphenyls

A population's exposure to persistent organic pollutants, e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), is typically assessed through national biomonitoring programs, such as the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). To complement statistical methods, we use a deterministic modeling approach to establish mechanistic links between human contaminant concentrations and factors (e.g. age, diet, lipid mass) deemed responsible for the often considerable variability in these concentrations. Lifetime exposures to four PCB congeners in 6128 participants from NHANES 1999-2004 are simulated using the ACC-Human model supplied with individualized input parameters obtained from NHANES questionnaires (e.g., birth year, sex, body mass index, dietary composition, reproductive behavior). Modeled and measured geometric mean PCB-153 concentrations in NHANES participants of 13.3 and 22.0 ng g^-1 lipid, respectively, agree remarkably well, although lower model-measurement agreement for air, water, and food suggests that this is partially due to fortuitous error cancellation. The model also reproduces trends in the measured data with key factors such as age, parity and sex. On an individual level, 62% of all modeled concentrations are within a factor of three of their corresponding measured values (Spearman r_s = 0.44). However, the model attributes more of the inter-individual variability to differences in dietary lipid intake than is indicated by the measured data. While the model succeeds in predicting levels and trends on the population level, the accuracy of individual-specific predictions would need to be improved for refined exposure characterization in epidemiological studies.

Mechanistic polychlorinated biphenyl exposure modeling of mothers in the Canadian Arctic: the challenge of reliably establishing dietary composition

BACKGROUND

Traditional food (TF) consumption represents the main route of persistent organic pollutant (POP) exposure for indigenous Arctic Canadians. Ongoing dietary transitions away from TFs and toward imported foods (IFs) may contribute to decreasing POP exposures observed in these groups.

METHODS

To explore this issue, we combined the global fate and transport model GloboPOP and the human food chain bioaccumulation model ACC-Human Arctic to simulate polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure in two indigenous Arctic Canadian communities from the Inuvik region, Northwest Territories and Baffin region, Nunavut. Using dietary survey information from initial (1996-98) and follow-up (2005-07) biomonitoring campaigns in Inuvik and Baffin, we simulated PCB exposures (PCB-118, -138, -153, and -180) for each individual study participant and also whole study populations.

RESULTS

TF intake rates, particularly of marine mammals (MMs), were the most important predictors of modeled PCB exposure, while TF consumption did not associate consistently with measured PCB exposures. Further, reported mean TF intake increased from baseline to follow-up in both Inuvik (from 8 to 183gd(-1)) and Baffin (from 60 to 134gd(-1)), opposing both the expected dietary transition direction and the observed decrease in human PCB exposures in these communities (ΣPCB Inuvik: from 43 to 29ngglipid(-1), ΣPCB Baffin: from 213 to 82ngglipid(-1)). However dietary questionnaire data are frequently subject to numerous biases (e.g., recall, recency, confirmation), and thus casts doubt on the usefulness of these data.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultimately, our model's capability to reproduce historic PCB exposure data in these two groups was highly sensitive to TF intake, further underscoring the importance of accurate TF consumption reporting, and clarification of the role of dietary transitions in future POP biomonitoring of indigenous Arctic populations.

Applicability of western chemical dietary exposure models to the Chinese population

A range of exposure models, which have been developed in Europe and North America, are playing an increasingly important role in priority setting and the risk assessment of chemicals. However, the applicability of these tools, which are based on Western dietary exposure pathways, to estimate chemical exposure to the Chinese population to support the development of a risk-based environment and exposure assessment, is unclear. Three frequently used modelling tools, EUSES, RAIDAR and ACC-HUMANsteady, have been evaluated in terms of human dietary exposure estimation by application to a range of chemicals with different physicochemical properties under both model default and Chinese dietary scenarios. Hence, the modelling approaches were assessed by considering dietary pattern differences only. The predicted dietary exposure pathways were compared under both scenarios using a range of hypothetical and current emerging contaminants. Although the differences across models are greater than those between dietary scenarios, model predictions indicated that dietary preference can have a significant impact on human exposure, with the relatively high consumption of vegetables and cereals resulting in higher exposure via plants-based foodstuffs under Chinese consumption patterns compared to Western diets. The selected models demonstrated a good ability to identify key dietary exposure pathways which can be used for screening purposes and an evaluative risk assessment. However, some model adaptations will be required to cover a number of important Chinese exposure pathways, such as freshwater farmed-fish, grains and pork.

Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in air, grass and yak butter from Namco in the central Tibetan Plateau

Limited studies on bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) along terrestrial food chains were conducted. The food chain air-grass-yak (butter) in the pasture region of Namco in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was chosen for study. The air, grass and butter POPs in the TP were at the lower end of the concentrations generally found around the globe. HCB was the main pollutant in air and butter. Besides HCB, β-HCH and p,p'-DDE were the other major compounds in butter. Along the food chain, DDTs and high molecular weight PCB-138, 153 and 180 had higher Biological Concentration Factor values. The air-butter transfer factors of POPs were derived and demonstrated the practical advantage in predicting the atmospheric OCPs and PCBs to the TP. This study sheds light on the transfer and accumulation of POPs along the terrestrial food chain of the TP.

Global warming and environmental contaminants in aquatic organisms: the need of the etho-toxicology approach

Environmental contaminants are associated with a wide spectrum of pathological effects. Temperature increase affects ambient distribution and toxicity of these chemicals in the water environment, representing a potentially emerging problem for aquatic species with short-, medium- and long-term repercussions on human health through the food chain. We assessed peer-reviewed literature, including primary studies, review articles and organizational reports available. We focused on studies concerning toxicity of environmental pollutants within a global warming scenario. Existing knowledge on the effects that the increase of water temperature in a contaminated situation has on physiological mechanisms of aquatic organisms is presented. Altogether we consider the potential consequences for the human beings due to fish and shellfish consumption. Finally, we propose an etho-toxicological approach to study the effects of toxicants in conditions of thermal increase, using aquatic organisms as experimental models under laboratory controlled conditions.

Evaluating the effectiveness of fish consumption advisories: modeling prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposures to persistent organic pollutants

BACKGROUND

Because human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) occurs mainly through ingestion of contaminated food, regulatory bodies issue dietary consumption advisories to describe safe intake levels for food items of concern, particularly fish.

OBJECTIVES

Our study goal was to estimate the effectiveness of fish consumption advisories in reducing exposure of infants and children to POPs.

METHODS

We used the time-variant mechanistic model CoZMoMAN to estimate and compare prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposure to polychlorinated biphenyl congener PCB-153 under different scenarios of maternal guideline adherence for both hypothetical constant and realistic time-variant chemical emissions. The scenarios differed in terms of length of compliance (1 vs. 5 years), extent of fish substitution (all vs. half), and replacement diet (uncontaminated produce vs. beef). We also estimated potential exposure reductions for a range of theoretical chemicals to explore how guideline effectiveness varies with a chemical's partitioning and degradation properties.

RESULTS

When assuming realistic time periods of advisory compliance, our findings suggest that temporarily eliminating or reducing maternal fish consumption is largely ineffective in reducing pre- and postnatal exposure to substances with long elimination half-lives in humans, especially during periods of decreasing environmental emissions. Substituting fish with beef may actually result in higher exposure to certain groups of environmental contaminants. On the other hand, advisories may be highly effective in reducing exposure to substances with elimination half-lives in humans shorter than the length of compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model estimates suggest that fish consumption advisories are unlikely to be effective in reducing prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposures to compounds with long elimination half-lives in humans.

Respiratory uptake kinetics of neutral hydrophobic organic chemicals in a marine benthic fish, Pseudopleuronectes yokohamae

We investigated the respiratory uptake kinetics of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organohalogen pesticides (OCPs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and 2,2',4,4'-tetrabrominated diphenyl ether (BDE #47) in a marine benthic fish, Pseudopleuronectes yokohamae. The respiratory uptake efficiencies (EW) of the chemicals, of which there have been no reports for the majority of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), were obtained by measuring the respiratory uptake rate constants (k1) and the oxygen consumption rates of fish. Fish were exposed to water in which these chemicals were dissolved at environmentally relevant concentrations for 28 d, followed by 168 d of depuration in clean seawater. The k1 and EW values for 99 compounds were obtained, and they ranged from 2000 to 42000 L kg-lipid(-1) d(-1) and from 0.060 to 1.3, respectively. The EW values of the chemicals, except for PAHs, tended to increase with increasing values of the log octanol-water partition coefficients (KOW) of the chemicals up to a log KOW of 5. For log KOW in the range 3-5, the EW values in this study were much lower than those in a published study (about one-third). As a result of analysis by a two-phase resistance model, the resistance of transport rates to the lipid phase in this study was lower than was the case in the published study. These findings indicate that the EW predicted by the published study for log KOW in the range 3-5 may differ among fish species and water temperature, and further study is needed.

Using quantitative structural property relationships, chemical fate models, and the chemical partitioning space to investigate the potential for long range transport and bioaccumulation of complex halogenated chemical mixtures

Some substances are mixtures of very large number of constituents which vary widely in their properties, and thus also in terms of their environmental fate and the hazard that they may pose to humans and the environment. Examples of such substances include industrial chemicals such as the chlorinated paraffins, technical pesticides such as toxaphene, and unintended combustion side products, such as mixed halogenated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans. Here we describe a simple graphical superposition method that could precede a more detailed hazard assessment for such substances. First, partitioning and degradation properties for each individual constituent of a mixture are estimated with high-throughput quantitative structure-property relationships. Placed in a chemical partitioning space, i.e. a coordinate system defined by two partitioning coefficients, the mixtures appear as 'clouds'. When model-derived hazard assessment metrics, such as the potential for bioaccumulation and long range transport, are superimposed on these clouds, the resulting maps identify the constituents with the highest value for a particular parameter and thus potentially the greatest hazard. The maps also indicate transparently how the potential for long range transport and bioaccumulation is dependent on structural attributes, such as chain length, and the degree and type of halogenation. In contrast to previous approaches, in which the mixture is represented by a single set of properties or those of a few selected constituents, the whole range of environmental fate behaviors displayed by the constituents of a mixture are being considered. The approach is illustrated with three sets of chemical substances.

Mountain cold-trapping increases transfer of persistent organic pollutants from atmosphere to cows' milk

Concentrations of long-lived organic contaminants in snow, soil, lake water, and vegetation have been observed to increase with altitude along mountain slopes. Such enrichment, called "mountain cold-trapping", is attributed to a transition from the atmospheric gas phase to particles, rain droplets, snowflakes, and Earth's surface at the lower temperatures prevailing at higher elevations. Milk sampled repeatedly from cows that had grazed at three different altitudes in Switzerland during one summer was analyzed for a range of persistent organic pollutants. Mountain cold-trapping significantly increased air-to-milk transfer factors of most analytes. As a result, the milk of cows grazing at higher altitudes was more contaminated with substances that have regionally uniform air concentrations (hexachlorobenzene, α-hexachlorocyclohexane, endosulfan sulfate). For substances that have sources, and therefore higher air concentrations, at lower altitudes (polychlorinated biphenyls, γ-hexachlorocyclohexane), alpine milk has lower concentrations, but not as low as would be expected without mountain cold-trapping. Differences in the elevational gradients in soil concentrations and air-to-milk transfer factors highlight that cold-trapping of POPs in pastures is mostly due to increased gas-phase deposition as a result of lower temperatures causing higher uptake capacity of plant foliage, whereas cold-trapping in soils more strongly depends on wet and dry particle deposition. Climatic influences on air-to-milk transfer of POPs needs to be accounted for when using contamination of milk lipids to infer contamination of the atmosphere.

Effects of heat recovery for district heating on waste incineration health impact: a simulation study in Northern Italy

The construction of waste incinerators in populated areas always causes substantial public concern. Since the heat from waste combustion can be recovered to power district heating networks and allows for the switch-off of domestic boilers in urbanized areas, predictive models for health assessment should also take into account the potential benefits of abating an important source of diffuse emission. In this work, we simulated the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants from a waste incinerator under construction in Parma (Italy) into different environmental compartments and estimated the potential health effect of both criteria- (PM(10)) and micro-pollutants (PCDD/F, PAH, Cd, Hg). We analyzed two emission scenarios, one considering only the new incinerator, and the other accounting for the potential decrease in pollutant concentrations due to the activation of a district heating network. We estimated the effect of uncertainty in parameter estimation on health risk through Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, we analyzed the robustness of health risk to alternative assumptions on: a) the geographical origins of the potentially contaminated food, and b) the dietary habits of the exposed population. Our analysis showed that under the specific set of assumptions and emission scenarios explored in the present work: (i) the proposed waste incinerator plant appears to cause negligible harm to the resident population; (ii) despite the net increase in PM(10) mass balance, ground-level concentration of fine particulate matter may be curbed by the activation of an extensive district heating system powered through waste combustion heat recovery and the concurrent switch-off of domestic/industrial heating boilers. In addition, our study showed that the health risk caused by waste incineration emissions is sensitive to assumptions about the typical diet of the resident population, and the geographical origins of food production.

Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and bioaccumulation: the role of multimedia models

Multimedia environmental fate models are valuable tools for investigating potential changes associated with global climate change, particularly because thermodynamic forcing on partitioning behavior as well as diffusive and nondiffusive exchange processes are implicitly considered. Similarly, food-web bioaccumulation models are capable of integrating the net effect of changes associated with factors such as temperature, growth rates, feeding preferences, and partitioning behavior on bioaccumulation potential. For the climate change scenarios considered in the present study, such tools indicate that alterations to exposure concentrations are typically within a factor of 2 of the baseline output. Based on an appreciation for the uncertainty in model parameters and baseline output, the authors recommend caution when interpreting or speculating on the relative importance of global climate change with respect to how changes caused by it will influence chemical fate and bioavailability.

A methodology for evaluating the influence of diets and intergenerational dietary transitions on historic and future human exposure to persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Inuit populations have been observed to decrease over the last decade. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to quantify the potential influence of intergenerational dietary transitions on human exposure to organic contaminants in the Arctic environment using PCB-153 as a case study. Long-term (1930-2050) dynamic simulations using realistic emission estimates were conducted using linked chemical fate and bioaccumulation models. Female body burdens were calculated over time assuming five diets with varying proportions of traditional and imported food items and then used to illustrate the potential variability at a community/population level. At any given time point, individuals consuming a 100% traditional diet (i.e. high intake of ringed seal blubber) have modelled body burdens approximately 15-150 times higher than individuals consuming a 100% imported food diet. Consumption of locally-harvested fish (e.g. Arctic cod) and seal meat are also associated with comparatively low body burdens. Decreased emissions are predicted to decrease the PCB-153 body burden of 30-year old females by 6 to 13-fold from 1980 to 2020 with dietary transitions accounting for an additional factor of 2-50 (i.e. 12-650 times lower in total) depending on the type of dietary transition and the origin of the imported food items. The model results indicate that dietary transitions are an important factor underlying the variability within and between subpopulations in addition to partially explaining the observed temporal trends. Specific information on the nature and timing of dietary transitions is highly valuable when interpreting biomonitoring data.

Assessing model uncertainty of bioaccumulation models by combining chemical space visualization with a process-based diagnostic approach

As models describing human exposure to organic chemicals gain wider use in chemical risk assessment and management, it becomes important to understand their uncertainty. Although evaluation of parameter sensitivity/uncertainty is increasingly common, model uncertainty is rarely assessed. When it is, the assessment is generally limited to a handful of chemicals. In this study, a strategy for more comprehensive model uncertainty assessment was developed. A regulatory model (EUSES) was compared with a research model based on more recent science. Predicted human intake was used as the model end point. Chemical space visualization techniques showed that the extent of disagreement between the models varied strongly with chemical partitioning properties. For each region of disagreement, the primary human exposure vector was determined. The differences between the models' process algorithms describing these exposure vectors were identified and evaluated. The equilibrium assumption for root crops in EUSES caused overestimations in daily intake of superhydrophobic chemicals (log K(OW) > 11, log K(OA) > 10), whereas EUSES's approach to calculating bioaccumulation in fish prey resulted in underestimations for hydrophobic compounds (log K(OW) ∼ 6-8). Uptake of hydrophilic chemicals from soil and bioaccumulation of superhydrophobic chemicals in zooplankton were identified as important research areas to enable further reduction of model uncertainty in bioaccumulation models.

Global climate change and contaminants--an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic

This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.

Fate of pesticides in the arid subtropics, Botswana, Southern Africa

Despite a history of pesticide usage, few data exist on their concentrations in air and soil of Southern Africa. To add to the understanding of the processes controlling the fate of organic contaminants in arid regions, the levels, spatial trends, and seasonal variability of pesticides were studied in air and soil from Botswana. XAD resin-based passive air samplers (PAS) were deployed at 15 sites across the country from May 2006 to May 2007. Soil samples were collected from the vicinity of nine of the PAS sampling sites. In addition, 27 24-h high-volume air samples were collected in Maun, at the southeastern edge of the Okavango Delta, every two weeks for one year. Levels of pesticides in PAS were low, with α-endosulfan and lindane being most abundant. Concentrations in soils were extremely low and only soils with high organic carbon contained notable amounts of dieldrin and traces of other pesticides. In particular, air and soil from the Okavango Delta had very low levels even though the area had repeatedly been sprayed with DDT and endosulfan in the past. Air samples from Eastern Botswana, where the majority of the population lives, contained higher levels. Higher air concentrations of α-endosulfan occurred during summer and higher HCB levels occurred in winter. This seasonality was related with neither minor seasonal changes in temperature nor hydrological seasonal events such as the rainy season or the flooding of the Okavango Delta. Thus, the observed spatial and seasonal patterns are more likely related to pesticide usage pattern than to environmental factors or historical use. High temperature and low organic matter content limit the uptake capacity of most subtropical soils for pesticides. No evidence was found that sorption to dry mineral matter plays a major role. Arid soils in subtropical regions are therefore neither a major reservoir of organic contaminants nor do they constitute a significant long-term source of pesticides to the atmosphere.