Childhood correlates and young adult outcomes of trajectories of emotional problems from childhood to adolescence

BACKGROUND

Emotional problems, especially anxiety, have become increasingly common in recent generations. Few population-based studies have examined trajectories of emotional problems from early childhood to late adolescence or investigated differences in psychiatric and functional outcomes.

METHODS

Using the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, n = 8286, 50.4% male), we modeled latent class growth trajectories of emotional problems, using the parent-reported Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire emotional scale (SDQ-E) on seven occasions (4-17 years). Psychiatric outcomes in young adulthood (21-25 years) were major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and self-harm. Functional outcomes were exam attainment, educational/occupational status, and social relationship quality.

RESULTS

We identified four classes of emotional problems: low (67.0%), decreasing (18.4%), increasing (8.9%), and persistent (5.7%) problems. Compared to those in the low class, individuals with decreasing emotional problems were not at elevated risk of any poor adult outcome. Individuals in the increasing and persistent classes had a greater risk of adult MDD (RR: 1.59 95% CI 1.13-2.26 and RR: 2.25 95% CI 1.49-3.41) and self-harm (RR: 2.37 95% CI 1.91-2.94 and RR: 1.87 95% CI 1.41-2.48), and of impairment in functional domains. Childhood sleep difficulties, irritability, conduct and neurodevelopmental problems, and family adversity were associated with a persistent course of emotional problems.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood emotional problems were common, but those whose symptoms improved over time were not at increased risk for adverse adult outcomes. In contrast, individuals with persistent or adolescent-increasing emotional problems had a higher risk of mental ill-health and social impairment in young adulthood which was especially pronounced for those with persistent emotional problems.

Predicting the Accumulation of Ionizable Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products in Aquatic and Terrestrial Organisms

The extent to which chemicals bioaccumulate in aquatic and terrestrial organisms represents a fundamental consideration for chemicals management efforts intended to protect public health and the environment from pollution and waste. Many chemicals, including most pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), are ionizable across environmentally relevant pH gradients, which can affect their fate in aquatic and terrestrial systems. Existing mathematical models describe the accumulation of neutral organic chemicals and weak acids and bases in both fish and plants. Further model development is hampered, however, by a lack of mechanistic insights for PPCPs that are predominantly or permanently ionized. Targeted experiments across environmentally realistic conditions are needed to address the following questions: (1) What are the partitioning and sorption behaviors of strongly ionizing chemicals among species? (2) How does membrane permeability of ions influence bioaccumulation of PPCPs? (3) To what extent are salts and associated complexes with PPCPs influencing bioaccumulation? (4) How do biotransformation and other elimination processes vary within and among species? (5) Are bioaccumulation modeling efforts currently focused on chemicals and species with key data gaps and risk profiles? Answering these questions promises to address key sources of uncertainty for bioaccumulation modeling of ionizable PPCPs and related contaminants. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:502-512. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

A weight of evidence approach for bioaccumulation assessment

Bioaccumulation assessments conducted by regulatory agencies worldwide use a variety of methods, types of data, metrics, and categorization criteria. Lines of evidence (LoE) for bioaccumulation assessment can include bioaccumulation metrics such as in vivo bioconcentration factor (BCF) and biomagnification factor (BMF) data measured from standardized laboratory experiments, and field (monitoring) data such as BMFs, bioaccumulation factors (BAFs), and trophic magnification factors (TMFs). In silico predictions from mass-balance models and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and a combination of in vitro biotransformation rates and in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) models can also be used. The myriad bioaccumulation metrics and categorization criteria and underlying uncertainty in measured or modeled data can make decision-making challenging. A weight of evidence (WoE) approach is recommended to address uncertainty. The Bioaccumulation Assessment Tool (BAT) guides a user through the process of collecting and generating various LoE required for assessing the bioaccumulation of neutral and ionizable organic chemicals in aquatic (water-respiring) and air-breathing organisms. The BAT includes data evaluation templates (DETs) to critically evaluate the reliability of the LoE used in the assessment. The DETs were developed from standardized testing guidance. The approach used in the BAT is consistent with OECD and SETAC WoE principles and facilitates the implementation of chemical policy objectives in chemical assessment and management. The recommended methods are also iterative and tiered, providing pragmatic methods to reduce unnecessary animal testing. General concepts of the BAT are presented and case study applications of the tool for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH) are demonstrated. The BAT provides a consistent and transparent WoE framework to address uncertainty in bioaccumulation assessment and is envisaged to evolve with scientific and regulatory developments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1235-1253. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

A framework for understanding the bioconcentration of surfactants in fish

Surfactants are a class of chemicals released in large quantities to water, and therefore bioconcentration in fish is an important component of their safety assessment. Their structural diversity, which encompasses nonionic, anionic, cationic and zwitterionic molecules with a broad range of lipophilicity, makes their evaluation challenging. A strong influence of environmental pH adds a further layer of complexity to their bioconcentration assessment. Here we present a framework that penetrates this complexity. Using simple equations derived from current understanding of the relevant underlying processes, we plot the key bioconcentration parameters (uptake rate constant, elimination rate constant and bioconcentration factor) as a function of its membrane lipid/water distribution ratio and the neutral fraction of the chemical in water at pH 8.1 and at pH 6.1. On this chemical space plot, we indicate boundaries at which four resistance terms (perfusion with water, transcellular, paracellular, and perfusion with blood) limit transport of surfactants across the gills. We then show that the bioconcentration parameters predicted by this framework align well with in vivo measurements of anionic, cationic and nonionic surfactants in fish. In doing so, we demonstrate how the framework can be used to explore expected differences in bioconcentration behavior within a given sub-class of surfactants, to assess how pH will influence bioconcentration, to identify the underlying processes governing bioconcentration of a particular surfactant, and to discover knowledge gaps that require further research. This framework for amphiphilic chemicals may function as a template for improved understanding of the accumulation potential of other ionizable chemicals of environmental concern, such as pharmaceuticals or dyes.

An amended in vitro-in vivo extrapolation model that accounts for first pass clearance effects on chemical bioaccumulation in fish

Measured rates of in vitro intrinsic clearance for fish may be extrapolated to the whole animal as a means of estimating a whole-body biotransformation rate constant (k_B; d^-1). This estimate of k_B can then be used as an input to existing bioaccumulation prediction models. Most in vitro-in vivo extrapolation/bioaccumulation (IVIVE/B) modeling efforts to date have focused on predicting the chemical bioconcentration in fish (aqueous only exposure), with less attention paid to dietary exposures. Following dietary uptake, biotransformation in the gut lumen, intestinal epithelia, and liver can reduce chemical accumulation; however, current IVIVE/B models do not consider these first pass clearance effects on dietary uptake. Here we present an amended IVIVE/B model that accounts for first pass clearance. The model is then used to examine how biotransformation in the liver and intestinal epithelia (alone or combined) may impact chemical accumulation that occurs during dietary exposure. First pass clearance by the liver can greatly reduce dietary uptake of contaminants, but these effects are only apparent at rapid rates of in vitro biotransformation (first order depletion rate constant k_DEP ≥ 10 h^-1). The impact of first pass clearance becomes more pronounced when biotransformation in the intestinal epithelia is included in the model. Modelled results suggest that biotransformation in the liver and intestinal epithelia cannot entirely explain reduced dietary uptake reported in several in vivo bioaccumulation tests. This unexplained reduction in dietary uptake is attributed to chemical degradation in the gut lumen. These findings underscore the need for research to directly investigate luminal biotransformation in fish.

Developing an internal threshold of toxicological concern (iTTC)

BACKGROUND

Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approaches are used for chemical safety assessment and risk-based priority setting for data poor chemicals. TTCs are derived from in vivo No Observed Effect Level (NOEL) datasets involving an external administered dose from a single exposure route, e.g., oral intake rate. Thus, a route-specific TTC can only be compared to a route-specific exposure estimate and such TTCs cannot be used for other exposure scenarios such as aggregate exposures.

OBJECTIVE

Develop and apply a method for deriving internal TTCs (iTTCs) that can be used in chemical assessments for multiple route-specific exposures (e.g., oral, inhalation or dermal) or aggregate exposures.

METHODS

Chemical-specific toxicokinetics (TK) data and models are applied to calculate internal concentrations (whole-body and blood) from the reported administered oral dose NOELs used to derive the Munro TTCs. The new iTTCs are calculated from the 5th percentile of cumulative distributions of internal NOELs and the commonly applied uncertainty factor of 100 to extrapolate animal testing data for applications in human health assessment.

RESULTS

The new iTTCs for whole-body and blood are 0.5 nmol/kg and 0.1 nmol/L, respectively. Because the iTTCs are expressed on a molar basis they are readily converted to chemical mass iTTCs using the molar mass of the chemical of interest. For example, the median molar mass in the dataset is 220 g/mol corresponding to an iTTC of 22 ng/L-blood (22 pg/mL-blood). The iTTCs are considered broadly applicable for many organic chemicals except those that are genotoxic or acetylcholinesterase inhibitors. The new iTTCs can be compared with measured or estimated whole-body or blood exposure concentrations for chemical safety screening and priority-setting.

SIGNIFICANCE

Existing Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approaches are limited in their applications for route-specific exposure scenarios only and are not suitable for chemical risk and safety assessments under conditions of aggregate exposure. New internal Threshold of Toxicological Concern (iTTC) values are developed to address data gaps in chemical safety estimation for multi-route and aggregate exposures.

Dynamic Mass Balance Modeling for Chemical Distribution Over Time in In Vitro Systems With Repeated Dosing

As toxicologists and risk assessors move away from animal testing and more toward using in vitro models and biological modeling, it is necessary to produce tools to quantify the chemical distribution within the in vitro environment prior to extrapolating in vitro concentrations to human equivalent doses. Although models predicting chemical distribution in vitro have been developed, very little has been done for repeated dosing scenarios, which are common in prolonged experiments where the medium needs to be refreshed. Failure to account for repeated dosing may lead to inaccurate estimations of exposure and introduce bias into subsequent in vitro to in vivo extrapolations. Our objectives were to develop a dynamic mass balance model for repeated dosing in in vitro systems; to evaluate model accuracy against experimental data; and to perform illustrative simulations to assess the impact of repeated doses on predicted cellular concentrations. A novel dynamic in vitro partitioning mass balance model (IV-MBM DP v1.0) was created based on the well-established fugacity approach. We parameterized and applied the dynamic mass balance model to single dose and repeat dosing scenarios, and evaluated the predicted medium and cellular concentrations against available empirical data. We also simulated repeated dosing scenarios for organic chemicals with a range of partitioning properties and compared the in vitro distributions over time. In single dose scenarios, for which only medium concentrations were available, simulated concentrations predicted measured concentrations with coefficients of determination (R2) of 0.85–0.89, mean absolute error within a factor of two and model bias of nearly one. Repeat dose scenario simulations displayed model bias <2 within the cell lysate, and ∼1.5-3 in the medium. The concordance between simulated and available experimental data supports the predictive capacity of the IV-MBM DP v1.0 tool, but further evaluation as empirical data becomes available is warranted, especially for cellular concentrations.

In Vivo Bioconcentration of 10 Anionic Surfactants in Rainbow Trout Explained by In Vitro Data on Partitioning and S9 Clearance

Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) in rainbow trout were measured for 10 anionic surfactants with a range of alkyl chain lengths and different polar head groups. The BCFs ranged from 0.04 L kg^-1 ww (for C₁₀SO₃) to 1370 L kg^-1 ww (C₁₆SO₃). There was a strong correlation between the log BCF and log membrane lipid-water distribution ratio (D_MLW, r² = 0.96), and biotransformation was identified as the dominant elimination mechanism. The strong positive influence of D_MLW on BCF was attributed to two phenomena: (i) increased partitioning from water into the epithelial membrane of the gill, leading to more rapid diffusion across this barrier and more rapid uptake, and (ii) increased sequestration of the surfactant body burden into membranes and other body tissues, resulting in lower freely dissolved concentrations available for biotransformation. Estimated whole-body in vivo biotransformation rate constants k_B-BCF are within a factor three of rate constants estimated from S9 in vitro assays for six of the eight test chemicals for which k_B-BCF could be determined. A model-based assessment indicated that the hepatic clearance rate of freely dissolved chemicals was similar for the studied surfactants. The dataset will be useful for evaluation of in silico and in vitro methods to assess bioaccumulation.

Graphical tools for the planning and interpretation of polyurethane foam based passive air sampling campaigns

Due to low cost and easy handling during sampling and extraction, passive air samplers (PASs) using polyurethane foam (PUF) as a sorbent have become the most commonly deployed PASs for semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). However, depending on the scenario, PUF-PAS may not always be operating in the linear uptake phase, which implies the need to consider how temperature, wind speed, deployment length and chemical properties interact to determine the amount of a target chemical taken up and the fraction of a depuration compound (DC) being lost during deployment. Guidance is, therefore, necessary to quantitatively interpret curvi-linear uptake in the PUF-PAS and avoid selection of DCs unsuited to the deployment conditions. In this study, the PAS-SIM model is used to generate graphical tools that aid in addressing important questions frequently arising during the use of PUF-PASs. Specifically, we generated five charts that display (i) the inherent sampling rate as a function of wind speed and a chemical's molecular diffusivity, (ii) the length of the linear uptake period as a function of chemical properties, temperature and the acceptable deviation from linearity, (iii) the time to 95% equilibrium as influenced by chemical properties, temperature and wind speed, (iv) the dependence of the fractional loss of DCs on chemical properties, temperature, wind speed and deployment length, and (v) the influence of chemical properties, temperature and the total suspended particle concentration on the extent of sorption to atmospheric particles. The charts also facilitate the assessment of the influence of parameter uncertainty. It is hoped that these charts assist with planning and interpreting sampling campaigns based on a mechanistic and quantitative understanding of uptake in PUF-based PASs.

Screening the baseline fish bioconcentration factor of various types of surfactants using phospholipid binding data

Fish bioconcentration factors (BCFs) are commonly used in chemical hazard and risk assessment. For neutral organic chemicals BCFs are positively correlated with the octanol-water partition ratio (K_OW), but K_OW is not a reliable parameter for surfactants. Membrane lipid-water distribution ratios (D_MLW) can be accurately measured for all kinds of surfactants, using phospholipid-based sorbents. This study first demonstrates that D_MLW values for ionic surfactants are more than 100 000 times higher than the partition ratio to fish-oil, representing neutral storage lipid. A non-ionic alcohol ethoxylate surfactant showed almost equal affinity for both lipid types. Accordingly, a baseline screening BCF value for surfactants (BCF_baseline) can be approximated for ionic surfactants by multiplying D_MLW by the phospholipid fraction in tissue, and for non-ionic surfactants by multiplying D_MLW by the total lipid fraction. We measured D_MLW values for surfactant structures, including linear and branched alkylbenzenesulfonates, an alkylsulfoacetate and an alkylethersulfate, bis(2-ethylhexyl)-surfactants (e.g., docusate), zwitterionic alkylbetaines and alkylamine-oxides, and a polyprotic diamine. Together with sixty previously published D_MLW values for surfactants, structure-activity relationships were derived to elucidate the influence of surfactant specific molecular features on D_MLW. For 23 surfactant types, we established the alkyl chain length at which BCF_baseline would exceed the EU REACH bioaccumulation (B) threshold of 2000 L kg^-1, and would therefore require higher tier assessments to further refine the BCF estimate. Finally, the derived BCF_baseline are compared with measured literature in vivo BCF data where available, suggesting that refinements, most notably reliable estimates of biotransformation rates, are needed for most surfactant types.

Development and Evaluation of a Holistic and Mechanistic Modeling Framework for Chemical Emissions, Fate, Exposure, and Risk

BACKGROUND

Large numbers of chemicals require evaluation to determine if their production and use pose potential risks to ecological and human health. For most chemicals, the inadequacy and uncertainty of chemical-specific data severely limit the application of exposure- and risk-based methods for screening-level assessments, priority setting, and effective management.

OBJECTIVE

We developed and evaluated a holistic, mechanistic modeling framework for ecological and human health assessments to support the safe and sustainable production, use, and disposal of organic chemicals.

METHODS

We consolidated various models for simulating the PROduction-To-EXposure (PROTEX) continuum with empirical data sets and models for predicting chemical property and use function information to enable high-throughput (HT) exposure and risk estimation. The new PROTEX-HT framework calculates exposure and risk by integrating mechanistic computational modules describing chemical behavior and fate in the socioeconomic system (i.e., life cycle emissions), natural and indoor environments, various ecological receptors, and humans. PROTEX-HT requires only molecular structure and chemical tonnage (i.e., annual production or consumption volume) as input information. We evaluated the PROTEX-HT framework using 95 organic chemicals commercialized in the United States and demonstrated its application in various exposure and risk assessment contexts.

RESULTS

Seventy-nine percent and 97% of the PROTEX-HT human exposure predictions were within one and two orders of magnitude, respectively, of independent human exposure estimates inferred from biomonitoring data. PROTEX-HT supported screening and ranking chemicals based on various exposure and risk metrics, setting chemical-specific maximum allowable tonnage based on user-defined toxicological thresholds, and identifying the most relevant emission sources, environmental media, and exposure routes of concern in the PROTEX continuum. The case study shows that high chemical tonnage did not necessarily result in high exposure or health risks.

CONCLUSION

Requiring only two chemical-specific pieces of information, PROTEX-HT enables efficient screening-level evaluations of existing and premanufacture chemicals in various exposure- and risk-based contexts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9372.

Update and Evaluation of a High-Throughput In Vitro Mass Balance Distribution Model: IV-MBM EQP v2.0

This study demonstrates the utility of an updated mass balance model for predicting the distribution of organic chemicals in in vitro test systems (IV-MBM EQP v2.0) and evaluates its performance with empirical data. The IV-MBM EQP v2.0 tool was parameterized and applied to four independent data sets with measured ratios of bulk medium or freely-dissolved to initial nominal concentrations (e.g., C24/C0 where C24 is the measured concentration after 24 h of exposure and C0 is the initial nominal concentration). Model performance varied depending on the data set, chemical properties (e.g., "volatiles" vs. "non-volatiles", neutral vs. ionizable organics), and model assumptions but overall is deemed acceptable. For example, the r² was greater than 0.8 and the mean absolute error (MAE) in the predictions was less than a factor of two for most neutral organics included. Model performance was not as good for the ionizable organic chemicals included but the r² was still greater than 0.7 and the MAE less than a factor of three. The IV-MBM EQP v2.0 model was subsequently applied to several hundred chemicals on Canada's Domestic Substances List (DSL) with nominal effects data (AC50s) reported for two in vitro assays. We report the frequency of chemicals with AC50s corresponding to predicted cell membrane concentrations in the baseline toxicity range (i.e., >20-60 mM) and tabulate the number of chemicals with "volatility issues" (majority of chemical in headspace) and "solubility issues" (freely-dissolved concentration greater than water solubility after distribution). In addition, the predicted "equivalent EQP blood concentrations" (i.e., blood concentration at equilibrium with predicted cellular concentration) were compared to the AC50s as a function of hydrophobicity (log octanol-water partition or distribution ratio). The predicted equivalent EQP blood concentrations exceed the AC50 by up to a factor of 100 depending on hydrophobicity and assay conditions. The implications of using AC50s as direct surrogates for human blood concentrations when estimating the oral equivalent doses using a toxicokinetic model (i.e., reverse dosimetry) are then briefly discussed.

Biotransformation Potential of Cationic Surfactants in Fish Assessed with Rainbow Trout Liver S9 Fractions

Biotransformation may substantially reduce the extent to which organic environmental contaminants accumulate in fish. Presently, however, relatively little is known regarding the biotransformation of ionized chemicals, including cationic surfactants, in aquatic organisms. To address this deficiency, a rainbow trout liver S9 substrate depletion assay (RT-S9) was used to measure in vitro intrinsic clearance rates (CL_int ; ml min^-1 g liver^-1 ) for 22 cationic surfactants that differ with respect to alkyl chain length and degree of methylation on the charged nitrogen atom. None of the quaternary N,N,N-trimethylalkylammonium compounds exhibited significant clearance. Rapid clearance was observed for N,N-dimethylalkylamines, and slower rates of clearance were measured for N-methylalkylamine analogs. Clearance rates for primary alkylamines were generally close to or below detectable levels. For the N-methylalkylamines and N,N-dimethylalkylamines, the highest CL_int values were measured for C₁₀ -C₁₂ homologs; substantially lower clearance rates were observed for homologs containing shorter or longer carbon chains. Based on its cofactor dependency, biotransformation of C₁₂ -N,N-dimethylamine appears to involve one or more cytochrome P450-dependent reaction pathways, and sulfonation. On a molar basis, N-demethylation metabolites accounted for up to 25% of the N,N-dimethylalkylamines removed during the 2-h assay, and up to 55% of the removed N-methylalkylamines. These N-demethylation products possess greater metabolic stability in the RT-S9 assay than the parent structures from which they derive and may contribute to the overall risk of ionizable alkylamines. The results of these studies provide a set of consistently determined CL_int values that may be extrapolated to whole trout to inform in silico bioaccumulation assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:3123-3136. © 2021 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Development and intercomparison of single and multicompartment physiologically-based toxicokinetic models: Implications for model selection and tiered modeling frameworks

This study describes the development and intercomparison of generic physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models for humans comprised of internally consistent one-compartment (1Co-) and multi-compartment (MCo-) implementations (G-PBTK). The G-PBTK models were parameterized for an adult male (70 kg) using common physiological parameters and in vitro biotransformation rate estimates and subsequently evaluated using independent concentration versus time data (n = 6) and total elimination half-lives (n = 15) for diverse organic chemicals. The model performance is acceptable considering the inherent uncertainty in the biotransformation rate data and the absence of model calibration. The G-PBTK model was then applied using hypothetical neutral organics, acidic ionizable organics and basic ionizable organics (IOCs) to identify combinations of partitioning properties and biotransformation rates leading to substantial discrepancies between 1Co- and MCo-PBTK calculations for whole body concentrations and half-lives. The 1Co- and MCo-PBTK model calculations for key toxicokinetic parameters are broadly consistent unless biotransformation is rapid (e.g., half-life less than five days). When half-lives are relatively short, discrepancies are greatest for the neutral organics and least for the acidic IOCs which follows from the estimated volumes of distribution (e.g., VD_SS = 9.6-15.4 L/kg vs 0.3-1.6 L/kg for the neutral and acidic compounds respectively) and the related approach to internal chemical equilibrium. The model intercomparisons demonstrate that 1Co-PBTK models can be applied with confidence to many exposure scenarios, particularly those focused on chronic or repeat exposures and for prioritization and screening-level decision contexts. However, MCo-PBTK models may be necessary in certain contexts, particularly for intermittent, short-term and highly variable exposures. A key recommendation to guide model selection and the development of tiered PBTK modeling frameworks that emerges from this study is the need to harmonize models with respect to parameterization and process descriptions to the greatest extent possible when proceeding from the application of simpler to more complex modeling tools as part of chemical assessment activities.

Acritical review and weight of evidence approach for assessing the bioaccumulation of phenanthrene in aquatic environments

Bioaccumulation (B) assessment is challenging because there are various B-metrics from laboratory and field studies, multiple criteria and thresholds for classifying bioaccumulative (B), very bioaccumulative (vB), and not bioaccumulative (nB) chemicals, as well as inherent variability and uncertainty in the data. These challenges can be met using a weight of evidence (WoE) approach. The Bioaccumulation Assessment Tool (BAT) provides a transparent WoE assessment framework that follows Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) principles for performing a WoE analysis. The BAT guides an evaluator through the process of data collection, generation, evaluation, and integration of various lines of evidence (LoE) (i.e., B-metrics) to inform decision-making. Phenanthrene (PHE) is a naturally occurring chemical for which extensive B and toxicokinetics data are available. A B assessment for PHE using the BAT is described that includes a critical evaluation of 74 measured in vivo LoE for fish and invertebrate species from laboratory and field studies. The number of LoE are reasonably well balanced across taxa (i.e., fish and invertebrates) and the different B-metrics. Additionally, in silico and in vitro biotransformation rate estimates and corresponding model-predicted B-metrics are included as corroborating evidence. Application of the BAT provides a consistent, coherent, and scientifically defensible WoE evaluation to conclude that PHE is not bioaccumulative (nB) because the overwhelming majority of the bioconcentration, bioaccumulation, and biomagnification metrics for both fish and invertebrates are below regulatory thresholds. An analysis of the relevant data using fugacity ratios is also provided, showing that PHE does not biomagnify in aquatic food webs. The critical review identifies recommendations to increase the consistency of B assessments, such as improved standardization of B testing guidelines, data reporting requirements for invertebrate studies, and consideration of temperature and salinity effects on certain B-metrics. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:911-925. © 2021 Concawe. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Bioconcentration of Several Series of Cationic Surfactants in Rainbow Trout

Cationic surfactants have a strong affinity to sorb to phospholipid membranes and thus possess an inherent potential to bioaccumulate, but there are few measurements of bioconcentration in fish. We measured the bioconcentration of 10 alkylamines plus two quaternary ammonium compounds in juvenile rainbow trout at pH 7.6, and repeated the measurements at pH 6.2 for 6 of these surfactants. The BCF of the amines with chain lengths ≤ C14 was positively correlated with chain length, increasing ∼0.5 log units per carbon. Their BCF was also pH dependent and approximately proportional to the neutral fraction of the amine in the water. The BCFs of the quaternary ammonium compounds showed no pH dependence and were >2 orders of magnitude less than for amines of the same chain length at pH 7.6. This indicates that systemic uptake of permanently charged cationic surfactants is limited. The behavior of the quaternary ammonium compounds and the two C16 amines studied was consistent with previous observations that these surfactants accumulate primarily to the gills and external surfaces of the fish. At pH 7.6 the BCF exceeded 2000 L kg-1 for 4 amines with chains ≥ C13, showing that bioconcentration can be considerable for some longer chained cationic surfactants.

PFAS Exposure Pathways for Humans and Wildlife: A Synthesis of Current Knowledge and Key Gaps in Understanding

We synthesize current understanding of the magnitudes and methods for assessing human and wildlife exposures to poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Most human exposure assessments have focused on 2 to 5 legacy PFAS, and wildlife assessments are typically limited to targeted PFAS (up to ~30 substances). However, shifts in chemical production are occurring rapidly, and targeted methods for detecting PFAS have not kept pace with these changes. Total fluorine measurements complemented by suspect screening using high-resolution mass spectrometry are thus emerging as essential tools for PFAS exposure assessment. Such methods enable researchers to better understand contributions from precursor compounds that degrade into terminal perfluoroalkyl acids. Available data suggest that diet is the major human exposure pathway for some PFAS, but there is large variability across populations and PFAS compounds. Additional data on total fluorine in exposure media and the fraction of unidentified organofluorine are needed. Drinking water has been established as the major exposure source in contaminated communities. As water supplies are remediated, for the general population, exposures from dust, personal care products, indoor environments, and other sources may be more important. A major challenge for exposure assessments is the lack of statistically representative population surveys. For wildlife, bioaccumulation processes differ substantially between PFAS and neutral lipophilic organic compounds, prompting a reevaluation of traditional bioaccumulation metrics. There is evidence that both phospholipids and proteins are important for the tissue partitioning and accumulation of PFAS. New mechanistic models for PFAS bioaccumulation are being developed that will assist in wildlife risk evaluations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:631-657. © 2020 SETAC.

Tissue Distribution of Several Series of Cationic Surfactants in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Following Exposure via Water

Bioaccumulation assessment is important for cationic surfactants in light of their use in a wide variety of consumer products and industrial processes. Because they sorb strongly to natural surfaces and to cell membranes, their bioaccumulation behavior is expected to differ from other classes of chemicals. Divided over two mixtures, we exposed rainbow trout to water containing 10 alkyl amines and 2 quaternary alkylammonium surfactants for 7 days, analyzed different fish tissues for surfactant residues, and calculated the tissues' contribution to fish body burden. Mucus, skin, gills, liver, and muscle each contributed at least 10% of body burden for the majority of the test chemicals. This indicates that both sorption to external surfaces and systemic uptake contribute to bioaccumulation. In contrast to the analogue alkylamine bases, the permanently charged quaternary ammonium compounds accumulated mostly in the gills and were nearly absent in internal tissues, indicating that systemic uptake of the charged form of cationic surfactants is very slow. Muscle-blood distribution coefficients were close to 1 for all alkyl amines, whereas liver-blood distribution coefficients ranged from 13 to 90, suggesting that the dominant considerations for sorption in liver are different from those in blood and muscle. The significant fraction of body burden on external surfaces can have consequences for bioaccumulation assessment.

Model-based exploration of the variability in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) bioaccumulation factors: The influence of physiology and trophic relationships

Because dietary consumption of fish is often a major vector of human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), much effort is directed toward a quantitative understanding of fish bioaccumulation using mechanistic models. However, many such models fail to explicitly consider how uptake and loss rate constants relate to fish physiology. We calculated the bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of hypothetical POPs, with octanol-water partition coefficients ranging from 10^4.5 to 10^8.5 , in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) with a food-web bioaccumulation model that uses bioenergetics to ensure that physiological parameters applied to a species are internally consistent. We modeled fish in 6 Canadian lakes (Great Slave Lake, Lake Ontario, Source Lake, Happy Isle Lake, Lake Opeongo, and Lake Memphremagog) to identify the factors that cause the BAFs of differently sized lake trout to vary between and within lakes. When comparing differently sized lake trout within a lake, larger fish tend to have the highest BAF because they allocate less energy toward growth than smaller fish and have higher activity levels. When comparing fish from different lakes, the model finds that diet composition and prey energy density become important in determining the BAF, in addition to activity and the amount of total energy allocated to growth. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:831-840. © 2019 SETAC.

Quantitative bias analysis of the association of type 2 diabetes mellitus with 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153)

An association between serum concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153), and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been reported. Conditional on body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), a higher serum PCB-153 concentration may be a marker of T2DM risk because it reflects other aspects of obesity that are related to T2DM risk and to PCB-153 clearance. To estimate the amount of residual confounding by other aspects of obesity, we performed a quantitative bias analysis on the results of a specific study. A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to predict serum levels of PCB-153 for a simulated population. T2DM status was assigned to simulated subjects based on age, sex, BMI, WC, and visceral adipose tissue mass. The distributions of age, BMI, WC, and T2DM prevalence of the simulated population were tailored to closely match the target population. Analysis of the simulated data showed that a small part of the observed association appeared to be due to residual confounding. For example, the predicted odds ratio of T2DM that would have been obtained had the results been adjusted for visceral adipose tissue mass, for the ≥90th percentile of PCB-153 serum concentration, was 6.60 (95% CI 2.46-17.74), compared with an observed odds ratio of 7.13 (95% CI 2.65-19.13). Our results predict that the association between PCB-153 and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus would not be substantially changed by additional adjustment for visceral adipose tissue mass in epidemiologic analyses. Confirmation of these predictions with longitudinal data would be reassuring.

Application of an Iterative Fragment Selection (IFS) Method to Estimate Entropies of Fusion and Melting Points of Organic Chemicals

The main objective of this study is to develop and evaluate novel Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships (QSPRs) for predicting entropy of fusion (ΔS_M ) and melting point (T_M ) of organic chemicals from chemical structure. The QSPRs are developed using the Iterative Fragment Selection (IFS) method that requires only 2D structural information from the user (SMILES codes) for property prediction. The QSPRs also provide information on the applicability domain for each calculation and uncertainty estimates for the predictions. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the external validation sets are 11.8 J mol^-1  K^-1 and 46.9 K for the ΔS_M and T_M QSPRs, respectively. The performance of the new QSPRs is comparable to other predictive methods but has advantages with respect to availability and ease of use as well as the guidance on applicability domain for each prediction. Limitations of the new QSPRs are discussed. The QSPRs are coded as a user-friendly, freely available tool.

Development and Evaluation of a Combined Bioenergetics and Organic Chemical Mass-Balance Bioaccumulation Model for Fish

This study describes the development and evaluation of a new bioenergetically balanced bioaccumulation (3B) model for organic chemicals in fish. The 3B model is developed from a large database of routine metabolic (oxygen consumption) rates composed of a range of species, body mass, and temperatures. The chemical uptake and elimination rates of the 3B model are compared against those from three existing bioaccumulation models. A time-variant version of the 3B model is evaluated against measured concentrations of five polychlorinated biphenyls in different-size fish depurated over the course of a year, during which water temperature changed by 22 °C. The "generic" species 3B model predicts fish concentrations to within a factor of 3 of the measured data for the majority of observations ( n = 438) and outperforms a previously published "species-specific" bioenergetics model. Bioenergetics aspects of the 3B model are further evaluated by comparing predicted feeding rates and growth rates to measured rates obtained from diverse laboratory conditions ( n 572). While bioenergetics performance is acceptable, the 3B model seems to generally perform better when ingestion rates are calculated from growth rates rather than vice versa. For field applications, parametrization of the activity multiplier remains a key uncertainty underlying the bioenergetics calculations.

A Model for Risk-Based Screening and Prioritization of Human Exposure to Chemicals from Near-Field Sources

Exposure- and risk-based assessments for chemicals used indoors or applied to humans (i.e., in near-field environments) necessitate an aggregate exposure pathway framework that aligns chemical exposure information from use sources to internal dose and eventually to their potential for health effects. Such a source-to-effect continuum is advocated to balance the complexity of human exposure and the insufficiency of relevant data for thousands of existing and emerging chemicals. Here, we introduce the Risk Assessment, IDentification And Ranking-Indoor and Consumer Exposure (RAIDAR-ICE) model, which establishes an integrated framework to evaluate human exposure due to indoor use and direct application of chemicals to humans. As a model evaluation, RAIDAR-ICE faithfully reproduces exposure estimates inferred from biomonitoring data for 37 chemicals with direct and indirect near-field sources. RAIDAR-ICE generates different rankings for 131 chemicals based on different exposure- and risk-based assessment metrics, demonstrating its versatility for diverse chemical screening goals. When coupled with a far-field RAIDAR model, the near-field RAIDAR-ICE model enables assessment of aggregate human exposure. Overall, RAIDAR-ICE is a powerful tool for high-throughput screening and prioritization of human exposure to neutral organic chemicals used indoors.

Linking algal growth inhibition to chemical activity: Excess toxicity below 0.1% of saturation

Chemical activity quantifies the energetic level of an organic compound relative to its pure liquid [0-1], and several studies have reported that baseline toxicity generally requires chemical activities of 0.01-0.1. The first aim was to challenge this chemical activity range for baseline toxicity. Algal growth inhibition data (median effective concentrations, EC₅₀) were compiled from two recent studies and included 108 compounds categorised as non-polar (mode of toxic action, MOA1) and polar (MOA2) narcotics. These data were linked to chemical activity by (1) plotting them relative to a regression for (subcooled) liquid solubility (S_L), which served as visual reference for chemical activity of unity and (2) determining EC₅₀/S_L ratios that essentially equal median effective chemical activity (Ea₅₀). Growth inhibition required chemical activity >0.01 for MOA1 and >0.001 for MOA2 compounds. The second aim was to identify compounds exerting excess toxicity, i.e., when growth inhibition occurred at chemical activity <0.001. From a recent review with 2323 data entries, 315 EC₅₀ values passed our selection criteria. 280 of these EC₅₀ values were within or near the baseline toxicity range (Ea₅₀>0.001), and 25 compounds were found to exert excess toxicity (Ea₅₀<0.001). Of these compounds, 16 are pesticides or precursors. Methodologically, this study includes two methods for translating EC₅₀ values into the chemical activity framework, each having advantages and limitations. Scientifically, this study confirms that baseline toxicity generally requires chemical activities of 0.01-0.1 and extends the application of the chemical activity approach beyond baseline toxicity, by demonstrating its utility to identify compounds that exert excess toxicity.

Which Molecular Features Affect the Intrinsic Hepatic Clearance Rate of Ionizable Organic Chemicals in Fish?

Greater knowledge of biotransformation rates for ionizable organic compounds (IOCs) in fish is required to properly assess the bioaccumulation potential of many environmentally relevant contaminants. In this study, we measured in vitro hepatic clearance rates for 50 IOCs using a pooled batch of liver S9 fractions isolated from rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). The IOCs included four types of strongly ionized acids (carboxylates, phenolates, sulfonates, and sulfates), three types of strongly ionized bases (primary, secondary, tertiary amines), and a pair of quaternary ammonium compounds (QACs). Included in this test set were several surfactants and a series of beta-blockers. For linear alkyl chain IOC analogues, biotransformation enzymes appeared to act directly on the charged terminal group, with the highest clearance rates for tertiary amines and sulfates and no clearance of QACs. Clearance rates for C₁₂-IOCs were higher than those for C₈-IOC analogues. Several analogue series with multiple alkyl chains, branched alkyl chains, aromatic rings, and nonaromatic rings were evaluated. The likelihood of multiple reaction pathways made it difficult to relate all differences in clearance to specific molecular features the tested IOCs. Future analysis of primary metabolites in the S9 assay is recommended to further elucidate biotransformation pathways for IOCs in fish.

Unravelling the Relationship between Body Mass Index and Polychlorinated Biphenyl Concentrations Using a Mechanistic Model

Human biomonitoring (HBM) often reveals statistical associations between persistent organic pollutant (POP) concentrations and body mass index (BMI). Both negative and positive associations have been observed, which has been hypothesized to reflect variable toxicokinetics in lean and obese individuals during times of increasing and decreasing exposure. We examined this hypothesis and assessed the influence of the obesity epidemic on time trends in human exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) at the population level using a mechanistic modeling approach and data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004. Using model results for PCB-153, we simulated cross-sectional body burden versus BMI trends (CBBTs), as well as population level body burden versus time trends. Negative associations between PCB-153 concentrations and BMI are predicted for all birth cohorts in HBM studies conducted in the 1990s, while for future cross-sectional studies, we predict negative or positive relationships depending on the age group sampled. At the population level, demographic changes such as the obesity epidemic and population aging had only marginal influence on the simulated rate of decline in PCB-153 concentrations between 1980 and 2010. Mechanistic bioaccumulation models can help unravel relationships between age, BMI, and POP concentrations, informing efforts to understand potential obesogenic effects of POPs.

Deterministic modeling of the exposure of individual participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to polychlorinated biphenyls

A population's exposure to persistent organic pollutants, e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), is typically assessed through national biomonitoring programs, such as the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). To complement statistical methods, we use a deterministic modeling approach to establish mechanistic links between human contaminant concentrations and factors (e.g. age, diet, lipid mass) deemed responsible for the often considerable variability in these concentrations. Lifetime exposures to four PCB congeners in 6128 participants from NHANES 1999-2004 are simulated using the ACC-Human model supplied with individualized input parameters obtained from NHANES questionnaires (e.g., birth year, sex, body mass index, dietary composition, reproductive behavior). Modeled and measured geometric mean PCB-153 concentrations in NHANES participants of 13.3 and 22.0 ng g^-1 lipid, respectively, agree remarkably well, although lower model-measurement agreement for air, water, and food suggests that this is partially due to fortuitous error cancellation. The model also reproduces trends in the measured data with key factors such as age, parity and sex. On an individual level, 62% of all modeled concentrations are within a factor of three of their corresponding measured values (Spearman r_s = 0.44). However, the model attributes more of the inter-individual variability to differences in dietary lipid intake than is indicated by the measured data. While the model succeeds in predicting levels and trends on the population level, the accuracy of individual-specific predictions would need to be improved for refined exposure characterization in epidemiological studies.

Dermal permeation data and models for the prioritization and screening-level exposure assessment of organic chemicals

High-throughput screening (HTS) models are being developed and applied to prioritize chemicals for more comprehensive exposure and risk assessment. Dermal pathways are possible exposure routes to humans for thousands of chemicals found in personal care products and the indoor environment. HTS exposure models rely on skin permeability coefficient (KP; cm/h) models for exposure predictions. An initial database of approximately 1000 entries for empirically-based KP data was compiled from the literature and a subset of 480 data points for 245 organic chemicals derived from testing with human skin only and using only water as a vehicle was selected. The selected dataset includes chemicals with log octanol-water partition coefficients (KOW) ranging from -6.8 to 7.6 (median=1.8; 95% of the data range from -2.5 to 4.6) and molecular weight (MW) ranging from 18 to 765g/mol (median=180); only 3% >500g/mol. Approximately 53% of the chemicals in the database have functional groups which are ionizable in the pH range of 6 to 7.4, with 31% being appreciably ionized. The compiled log KP values ranged from -5.8 to 0.1cm/h (median=-2.6). The selected subset of the KP data was then used to evaluate eight representative KP models that can be readily applied for HTS assessments, i.e., parameterized with KOW and MW. The analysis indicates that a version of the SKINPERM model performs the best against the selected dataset. Comparisons of representative KP models against model input parameter property ranges (sensitivity analysis) and against chemical datasets requiring human health assessment were conducted to identify regions of chemical properties that should be tested to address uncertainty in KP models and HTS exposure assessments.

Mechanistic polychlorinated biphenyl exposure modeling of mothers in the Canadian Arctic: the challenge of reliably establishing dietary composition

BACKGROUND

Traditional food (TF) consumption represents the main route of persistent organic pollutant (POP) exposure for indigenous Arctic Canadians. Ongoing dietary transitions away from TFs and toward imported foods (IFs) may contribute to decreasing POP exposures observed in these groups.

METHODS

To explore this issue, we combined the global fate and transport model GloboPOP and the human food chain bioaccumulation model ACC-Human Arctic to simulate polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure in two indigenous Arctic Canadian communities from the Inuvik region, Northwest Territories and Baffin region, Nunavut. Using dietary survey information from initial (1996-98) and follow-up (2005-07) biomonitoring campaigns in Inuvik and Baffin, we simulated PCB exposures (PCB-118, -138, -153, and -180) for each individual study participant and also whole study populations.

RESULTS

TF intake rates, particularly of marine mammals (MMs), were the most important predictors of modeled PCB exposure, while TF consumption did not associate consistently with measured PCB exposures. Further, reported mean TF intake increased from baseline to follow-up in both Inuvik (from 8 to 183gd(-1)) and Baffin (from 60 to 134gd(-1)), opposing both the expected dietary transition direction and the observed decrease in human PCB exposures in these communities (ΣPCB Inuvik: from 43 to 29ngglipid(-1), ΣPCB Baffin: from 213 to 82ngglipid(-1)). However dietary questionnaire data are frequently subject to numerous biases (e.g., recall, recency, confirmation), and thus casts doubt on the usefulness of these data.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultimately, our model's capability to reproduce historic PCB exposure data in these two groups was highly sensitive to TF intake, further underscoring the importance of accurate TF consumption reporting, and clarification of the role of dietary transitions in future POP biomonitoring of indigenous Arctic populations.

Tracking the Global Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutants Accounting for E-Waste Exports to Developing Regions

Elevated concentrations of various industrial-use Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), have been reported in some developing areas in subtropical and tropical regions known to be destinations of e-waste. We used a recent inventory of the global generation and exports of e-waste to develop various global scale emission scenarios for industrial-use organic contaminants (IUOCs). For representative IUOCs (RIUOCs), only hypothetical emissions via passive volatilization from e-waste were considered whereas for PCBs, historical emissions throughout the chemical life-cycle (i.e., manufacturing, use, disposal) were included. The environmental transport and fate of RIUOCs and PCBs were then simulated using the BETR Global 2.0 model. Export of e-waste is expected to increase and sustain global emissions beyond the baseline scenario, which assumes no export. A comparison between model predictions and observations for PCBs in selected recipient regions generally suggests a better agreement when exports are accounted for. This study may be the first to integrate the global transport of IUOCs in waste with their long-range transport in air and water. The results call for integrated chemical management strategies on a global scale.

Evaluating the PAS-SIM model using a passive air sampler calibration study for pesticides

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of a model for simulating the uptake of various pesticides on passive air samplers (PAS). From 2006-2007 a series of PAS using XAD-resin were deployed at Egbert, a rural agricultural site in southern Ontario, Canada, to measure the uptake of pesticides for time periods ranging from two months to one year. A continuous increase in sequestered amounts was observed for most pesticides, except for trifluralin and pendimethalin, which could conceivably be subject to substantial degradation inside the sampler. Continuous low-volume active air samples taken during the same period, along with data on weather conditions, allowed for the simulation of the uptake of the pesticides using the model (PAS-SIM). The modelled accumulation of pesticides on the PAS over the deployment period was in good agreement with the experimental data in most cases (i.e., within a factor of two) providing insight into the uptake kinetics of this type of sampler in the field. Passive sampling rates (PSR, m(3) d(-1)) were determined from the empirical data generated for this study using three different methods and compared with the PSRs generated by the model. Overall, the PAS-SIM model, which is capable of accounting for the influence of temperature and wind variations on PSRs, provided reasonable results that range between the three empirical approaches employed and well-established literature values. Further evaluation and application of the PAS-SIM model to explore the potential spatial and temporal variability in PAS uptake kinetics is warranted, particularly for established monitoring sites where detailed meteorological data are more likely to be available.

Environmental fate and dietary exposures of humans to TCDD as a result of the spraying of Agent Orange in upland forests of Vietnam

The fate and transport of 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro-p-dibenzodioxin (TCDD) released into the environment of South Vietnam (SVN) as a consequence of the aerial application of the herbicidal defoliant Agent Orange (AO) were simulated for a generic upland forest scenario and followed over a 50-year period (1965, 1968 and 1970 onwards). Modeled concentrations of TCDD in the environment were then used as inputs to a human exposure model, which focused on long-term exposures via the food chain. Intake rates and body burdens of TCDD were estimated for adult males over the course of the simulation period and compared to available biomonitoring data. One of the most important factors determining the magnitude of the simulated human exposure to TCDD was the fraction of the chemical deposited directly to soil (where it was assumed to have a degradation half-life of 10 or 15years) relative to the fraction assumed to remain on/in the forest canopy following the spray application (where it was assumed to have a degradation half-life of ≤48h). The simulated body burdens under the various scenarios considered were broadly consistent with the biomonitoring data from SVN collected in the mid-1980s to late 1990s. Taken together, the modeling results and empirical data suggest that highly elevated exposures to TCDD (i.e., body burdens in the several 100s of pg/g lipid range and greater) were not common among people inhabiting upland forest locations in SVN sprayed with AO and that peak and average body burdens were broadly similar to those of the general population of the U.S. in the 1970s and early 1980s. The model-based assessment is consistent with the 'hot spot' hypothesis i.e., potential exposures to TCDD linked to activities conducted on or near former bases where AO was stored are greater than potential exposures in areas subjected to aerial spraying.

Application of mass balance models and the chemical activity concept to facilitate the use of in vitro toxicity data for risk assessment

Practical, financial, and ethical considerations related to conducting extensive animal testing have resulted in various initiatives to promote and expand the use of in vitro testing data for chemical evaluations. Nominal concentrations in the aqueous phase corresponding to an effect (or biological activity) are commonly reported and used to characterize toxicity (or biological response). However, the true concentration in the aqueous phase can be substantially different from the nominal. To support in vitro test design and aid the interpretation of in vitro toxicity data, we developed a mass balance model that can be parametrized and applied to represent typical in vitro test systems. The model calculates the mass distribution, freely dissolved concentrations, and cell/tissue concentrations corresponding to the initial nominal concentration and experimental conditions specified by the user. Chemical activity, a metric which can be used to assess the potential for baseline toxicity to occur, is also calculated. The model is first applied to a set of hypothetical chemicals to illustrate the degree to which test conditions (e.g., presence or absence of serum) influence the distribution of the chemical in the test system. The model is then applied to set of 1194 real substances (predominantly from the ToxCast chemical database) to calculate the potential range of concentrations and chemical activities under assumed test conditions. The model demonstrates how both concentrations and chemical activities can vary by orders of magnitude for the same nominal concentration.

Tracking the global generation and exports of e-waste. Do existing estimates add up?

The transport of discarded electronic and electrical appliances (e-waste) to developing regions has received considerable attention, but it is difficult to assess the significance of this issue without a quantitative understanding of the amounts involved. The main objective of this study is to track the global transport of e-wastes by compiling and constraining existing estimates of the amount of e-waste generated domestically in each country MGEN, exported from countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) MEXP, and imported in countries outside of the OECD MIMP. Reference year is 2005 and all estimates are given with an uncertainty range. Estimates of MGEN obtained by apportioning a global total of ∼ 35,000 kt (range 20,000-50,000 kt) based on a nation's gross domestic product agree well with independent estimates of MGEN for individual countries. Import estimates MIMP to the countries believed to be the major recipients of e-waste exports from the OECD globally (China, India, and five West African countries) suggests that ∼ 5,000 kt (3,600 kt-7,300 kt) may have been imported annually to these non-OECD countries alone, which represents ∼ 23% (17%-34%) of the amounts of e-waste generated domestically within the OECD. MEXP for each OECD country is then estimated by applying this fraction of 23% to its MGEN. By allocating each country's MGEN, MIMP, MEXP and MNET = MGEN + MIMP - MEXP, we can map the global generation and flows of e-waste from OECD to non-OECD countries. While significant uncertainties remain, we note that estimated import into seven non-OECD countries alone are often at the higher end of estimates of exports from OECD countries.

Exploring the potential influence of climate change and particulate organic carbon scenarios on the fate of neutral organic contaminants in the Arctic environment

The main objective of this study is to explore the potential influence of climate change and particulate organic carbon scenarios on the fate of organic chemicals in the Arctic marine environment using an evaluative modeling approach. Particulate organic carbon scenarios are included to represent changes such as enhanced primary production and terrestrial inputs. Simulations are conducted for a set of hypothetical chemicals covering a wide range of partitioning property combinations using a 40-year emission scenario. Differences in model output between the default simulations (i.e. contemporary conditions) and future scenarios during the primary emission phase are limited in magnitude (typically within a factor of two), consistent with other modeling studies. The changes to particulate organic carbon levels in the Arctic Ocean assumed in the simulations exert a relatively important influence for hydrophobic organic chemicals during the primary emission phase, mitigating the potential for exposure via the pelagic food web by reducing freely-dissolved concentrations in the water column. The changes to particulate organic carbon levels are also influential in the secondary emission/depuration phase. The model results illustrate the potential importance of changes to organic carbon levels in the Arctic Ocean and support efforts to improve the understanding of organic carbon cycling and links to climate change.

Modeling the uptake of neutral organic chemicals on XAD passive air samplers under variable temperatures, external wind speeds and ambient air concentrations (PAS-SIM)

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and demonstrate the utility of a fugacity-based model of XAD passive air samplers (XAD-PAS) designed to simulate the uptake of neutral organic chemicals under variable temperatures, external wind speeds and ambient air concentrations. The model (PAS-SIM) simulates the transport of the chemical across the air-side boundary layer and within the sampler medium, which is segmented into a user-defined number of thin layers. Model performance was evaluated using data for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from a field calibration study (i.e., active and XAD-PAS data) conducted in Egbert, Ontario, Canada. With some exceptions, modeled PAS uptake curves are in good agreement with the empirical PAS data. The results are highly encouraging, given the uncertainty in the active air sampler data used as input and other uncertainties related to model parametrization (e.g., sampler-air partition coefficients, the influence of wind speed on sampling rates). The study supports the further development and evaluation of the PAS-SIM model as a diagnostic (e.g., to aid interpretation of calibration studies and monitoring data) and prognostic (e.g., to inform design of future passive air sampling campaigns) tool.

Exploring the role of shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean in determining the Arctic contamination potential of neutral organic contaminants

The main objective of this study was to model the contribution of shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean to the total mass of neutral organic contaminants accumulated in the Arctic environment using a standardized emission scenario for sets of hypothetical chemicals and realistic emission estimates (1930-2100) for polychlorinated biphenyl congener 153 (PCB-153). Shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean are shown to be important reservoirs for neutral organic chemicals across a wide range of partitioning properties, increasing the total mass in the surface compartments of the Arctic environment by up to 3.5-fold compared to simulations excluding this compartment. The relative change in total mass for hydrophobic organic chemicals with log air-water partition coefficients ≥0 was greater than for chemicals with properties similar to typical POPs. The long-term simulation of PCB-153 generated modeled concentrations in shelf sediments in reasonable agreement with available monitoring data and illustrate that the relative importance of shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean for influencing surface ocean concentrations (and therefore exposure via the pelagic food web) is most pronounced once primary emissions are exhausted and secondary sources dominate. Additional monitoring and modeling work to better characterize the role of shelf sediments for contaminant fate is recommended.

Development and evaluation of a mechanistic bioconcentration model for ionogenic organic chemicals in fish

A mechanistic mass balance bioconcentration model is developed and parameterized for ionogenic organic chemicals (IOCs) in fish and evaluated against a compilation of empirical bioconcentration factors (BCFs). The model is subsequently applied to a set of perfluoroalkyl acids. Key aspects of model development include revised methods to estimate the chemical absorption efficiency of IOCs at the respiratory surface (E(W) ) and the use of distribution ratios to characterize the overall sorption capacity of the organism. Membrane-water distribution ratios (D(MW) ) are used to characterize sorption to phospholipids instead of only considering the octanol-water distribution ratio (D(OW) ). Modeled BCFs are well correlated with the observations (e.g., r(2)  = 0.68 and 0.75 for organic acids and bases, respectively) and accurate to within a factor of three on average. Model prediction errors appear to be largely the result of uncertainties in the biotransformation rate constant (k(M) ) estimates and the generic approaches for estimating sorption capacity (e.g., D(MW) ). Model performance for the set of perfluoroalkyl acids considered is highly dependent on the input parameters describing hydrophobicity (i.e., log K(OW) of the neutral form). The model applications broadly support the hypothesis that phospholipids contribute substantially to the sorption capacity of fish, particularly for compounds that exhibit a high degree of ionization at biologically relevant pH. Additional empirical data on biotransformation and sorption to phospholipids and subsequent incorporation into property estimation approaches (e.g., k(M) , D(MW) ) are priorities with respect to improving model performance.

Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and bioaccumulation: the role of multimedia models

Multimedia environmental fate models are valuable tools for investigating potential changes associated with global climate change, particularly because thermodynamic forcing on partitioning behavior as well as diffusive and nondiffusive exchange processes are implicitly considered. Similarly, food-web bioaccumulation models are capable of integrating the net effect of changes associated with factors such as temperature, growth rates, feeding preferences, and partitioning behavior on bioaccumulation potential. For the climate change scenarios considered in the present study, such tools indicate that alterations to exposure concentrations are typically within a factor of 2 of the baseline output. Based on an appreciation for the uncertainty in model parameters and baseline output, the authors recommend caution when interpreting or speculating on the relative importance of global climate change with respect to how changes caused by it will influence chemical fate and bioavailability.

A methodology for evaluating the influence of diets and intergenerational dietary transitions on historic and future human exposure to persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Inuit populations have been observed to decrease over the last decade. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to quantify the potential influence of intergenerational dietary transitions on human exposure to organic contaminants in the Arctic environment using PCB-153 as a case study. Long-term (1930-2050) dynamic simulations using realistic emission estimates were conducted using linked chemical fate and bioaccumulation models. Female body burdens were calculated over time assuming five diets with varying proportions of traditional and imported food items and then used to illustrate the potential variability at a community/population level. At any given time point, individuals consuming a 100% traditional diet (i.e. high intake of ringed seal blubber) have modelled body burdens approximately 15-150 times higher than individuals consuming a 100% imported food diet. Consumption of locally-harvested fish (e.g. Arctic cod) and seal meat are also associated with comparatively low body burdens. Decreased emissions are predicted to decrease the PCB-153 body burden of 30-year old females by 6 to 13-fold from 1980 to 2020 with dietary transitions accounting for an additional factor of 2-50 (i.e. 12-650 times lower in total) depending on the type of dietary transition and the origin of the imported food items. The model results indicate that dietary transitions are an important factor underlying the variability within and between subpopulations in addition to partially explaining the observed temporal trends. Specific information on the nature and timing of dietary transitions is highly valuable when interpreting biomonitoring data.

Development of a dynamic model for estimating the food web transfer of chemicals in small aquatic ecosystems

A dynamic combined fate and food web model was developed to estimate the food web transfer of chemicals in small aquatic ecosystems (i.e. ponds). A novel feature of the modeling approach is that aquatic macrophytes (submerged aquatic vegetation) were included in the fate model and were also a food item in the food web model. The paper aims to investigate whether macrophytes are effective at mitigating chemical exposure and to compare the modeling approach developed here with previous modeling approaches recommended in the European Union (EU) guideline for risk assessment of pesticides. The model was used to estimate bioaccumulation of three hypothetical chemicals of varying hydrophobicity in a pond food web comprising 11 species. Three different macrophyte biomass densities were simulated in the model experiments to determine the influence of macrophytes on fate and bioaccumulation. Macrophytes were shown to have a significant effect on the fate and food web transfer of highly hydrophobic compounds with log KOW>=5. Modeled peak concentrations in biota were highest for the scenarios with the lowest macrophyte biomass density. The distribution and food web transfer of the hypothetical compound with the lowest hydrophobicity (log KOW=3) was not affected by the inclusion of aquatic macrophytes in the pond environment. For the three different hypothetical chemicals and at all macrophyte biomass densities, the maximum predicted concentrations in the top predator in the food web model were at least one order of magnitude lower than the values estimated using methods suggested in EU guidelines. The EU guideline thus provides a highly conservative estimate of risk. In our opinion, and subject to further model evaluation, a realistic assessment of dynamic food web transfer and risk can be obtained using the model presented here.

Hexabromocyclododecane: current understanding of chemistry, environmental fate and toxicology and implications for global management

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is a globally produced brominated flame retardant (BFR) used primarily as an additive FR in polystyrene and textile products and has been the subject of intensified research, monitoring and regulatory interest over the past decade. HBCD is currently being evaluated under the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. HBCD is hydrophobic (i.e., has low water solubility) and thus partitions to organic phases in the aquatic environment (e.g., lipids, suspended solids). It is ubiquitous in the global environment with monitoring data generally exhibiting the expected relationship between proximity to known sources and levels; however, temporal trends are not consistent. Estimated degradation half-lives, together with data in abiotic compartments and long-range transport potential indicate HBCD may be sufficiently persistent and distributed to be of global concern. The detection of HBCD in biota in the Arctic and in source regions and available bioaccumulation data also support the case for regulatory scrutiny. Toxicity testing has detected reproductive, developmental and behavioral effects in animals where exposures are sufficient. Recent toxicological advances include a better mechanistic understanding of how HBCD can interfere with the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis, affect normal development, and impact the central nervous system; however, levels in biota in remote locations are below known effects thresholds. For many regulatory criteria, there are substantial uncertainties that reduce confidence in evaluations and thereby confound management decision-making based on currently available information.

BETR global--a geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15°×15° grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Global climate change and contaminants--an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic

This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.

Toward a consistent evaluative framework for POP risk characterization

The purpose of Annex E in the Stockholm Convention (SC) on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) is to assess whether a chemical is likely, as a result of its long-range environmental transport, to lead to significant adverse human health or environmental effects, such that global action is warranted. To date, risk profiles for nominated POPs have not consistently selected assessment endpoints or completed mandated risk characterizations. An assessment endpoint hierarchy is proposed to facilitate risk characterization for the implementation of the SC. The framework is illustrated for a nominated POP, hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), using three risk estimation methods. Based on current monitoring and toxicity data, the screening-level results indicate that humans and ecological receptors in remote regions such as the Arctic are unlikely to experience significant adverse effects (i.e., low risk) due to long-range environmental transport of HBCD. The results for birds are more uncertain than the results for fish and mammals due to the paucity of avian toxicity data. Risk characterization results for HBCD and for some listed POPs are compared to illustrate how the proposed methods can further assist decision-making and chemical management.

Modeling the global fate and transport of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and precursor compounds in relation to temporal trends in wildlife exposure

A global-scale fate and transport model was applied to investigate the historic and future trends in ambient concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and volatile perfluorooctane sulfonyl fluoride (POSF)-based precursor compounds in the environment. First, a global emission inventory for PFOS and its precursor compounds was estimated for the period 1957-2010. We used this inventory as input to a global-scale contaminant fate model and compared modeled concentrations with field data. The main focus of the simulations was to examine how modeled concentrations of PFOS and volatile precursor compounds respond to the major production phase-out that occurred in 2000-2002. Modeled concentrations of PFOS in surface ocean waters are generally within a factor of 5 of field data and are dominated by direct emissions of this substance. In contrast, modeled concentrations of the precursor compounds considered in this study are lower than measured concentrations both before and after the production phase-out. Modeled surface ocean water concentrations of PFOS in source regions decline slowly in response to the production phase-out while concentrations in remote regions continue to increase until 2030. In contrast, modeled concentrations of precursor compounds in both the atmosphere and surface ocean water compartment in all regions respond rapidly to the production phase-out (i.e., decline quickly to much lower levels). With respect to wildlife biomonitoring data, since precursor compounds are bioavailable and degrade to PFOS in vivo, it is at least plausible that declining trends in PFOS body burdens observed in some marine organisms are attributable to this exposure pathway. The continued increases in PFOS body burdens observed in marine organisms inhabiting other regions may reflect exposure primarily to PFOS itself, present in the environment due to production and use of this compound as well as degradation of precursor compounds.