Mapping the global flow of aluminum: from liquid aluminum to end-use goods

Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle

Low-carbon technologies are essential for the aluminum industry to meet its climate targets despite increasing demand. However, the penetration of these technologies is often delayed due to the long lifetimes of the industrial assets currently in use. Existing models and scenarios for the aluminum sector omit this inertia and therefore potentially overestimate the realistic mitigation potential. Here, we introduce a technology-explicit dynamic material flow model for the global primary (smelters) and secondary (melting furnaces) aluminum production capacities. In business-as-usual scenarios, we project emissions from smelters and melting furnaces to rise from 710 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2020 to 920-1400 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2050. Rapid implementation of inert anodes in smelters can reduce emissions by 14% by 2050. However, a limitation of emissions compatible with a 2 °C scenario requires combined action: (1) an improvement of collection and recycling systems to absorb all the available postconsumer scrap, (2) a fast and wide deployment of low-carbon technologies, and (3) a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity sources. These measures need to be implemented even faster in scenarios with a stronger increase in aluminum demand. Lock-in effects are likely: building new capacity using conventional technologies will compromise climate mitigation efforts and would require premature retirement of industrial assets.

Thermal utilization techniques and strategies for secondary aluminum dross: A review

Secondary aluminum ash (SAD) disposal is challenging, particularly in developing countries, and presents severe eco-environmental risks. This paper presents the treatment techniques, mechanisms, and effects of SAD at the current technical-economic level based on aluminum ash's resource utilization and environmental properties. Five recovery techniques were summarized based on aluminum's recoverability in SAD. Four traditional utilization methods were outlined as per the utilization of alumina in SAD. Three new utilization methods of SAD were summarized based on the removability (or convertibility) of aluminum nitride in SAD. The R-U-R (recoverability, utilizability, and removability) theory of SAD was formed based on several studies that helped identify the fingerprint of SAD. Furthermore, the utilization strategies of SAD, which supported the recycling of aluminum ash, were proposed. To form a perfect fingerprint database and develop various relevant techniques, future research must focus on an extensive examination of the characteristics of aluminum ash. This research will be advantageous for addressing the resource and environmental challenges of aluminum ash.

Material and Carbon Footprints of Machinery Capital

Machinery and equipment, integral as technology-specific capital goods, play a dual role in climate change: it acts as both a mitigator and an exacerbator due to its carbon-intensive life cycle. Despite their importance, current climate mitigation analyses often overlook these items, leaving a gap in comprehensive analyses of their material stock and environmental impacts. To address this, our research integrates input-output analysis (IOA) with dynamic material flow analysis (d-MFA) to assess the carbon and material footprints of machinery. It finds that in 2019, machinery production required 30% of global metal production and 8% of global carbon emissions. Between 2000 and 2019, the metal footprint of the stock of machinery grew twice as fast as the economy. To illustrate the global implications and scale, we spotlight key countries. China's rise in machinery material stock is noteworthy, surpassing the United States in 2008 in total amount and achieving half of the US per capita level by 2019. Our study also contrasts economic depreciation─a value-centric metric─with the tangible lifespan of machinery, revealing how much the physical size of the capital stock exceeds its book values. As physical machinery stocks saturate, new machinery can increasingly be built from metals recycled from retired machinery.

A comprehensive review of aluminium electrolysis and the waste generated by it

Aluminium is produced by electrolysis using alumina (Al2O3) as raw material and cryolite (Na3AlF6) as electrolyte. In this Hall-Héroult process, the energy consumption is relatively large, and solid wastes such as spent anodes and spent pot liner, flue gas and waste heat are generated. Therefore, this article discusses from the perspective of high energy consumption and high pollution and summarizes the methods to reduce energy consumption and solve pollution problems. The functions of carbon anode, carbon cathode, refractory material and sidewall in aluminium electrolysis cells are discussed in detail. The process of aluminium electrolysis and the ways to improve the current efficiency of aluminium electrolysis cells and reduce their energy consumption are outlined. The causes and treatment methods of spent anodes, spent cathodes, spent refractories and spent spot liner are reviewed. The research progress of waste heat recovery and aluminium electrolysis flue gas purification are analysed. And the future research directions of aluminium electrolysis flue gas are provided.

Producing Metal Powder from Machining Chips Using Ball Milling Process: A Review

In the pursuit of achieving zero emissions, exploring the concept of recycling metal waste from industries and workshops (i.e., waste-free) is essential. This is because metal recycling not only helps conserve natural resources but also requires less energy as compared to the production of new products from virgin raw materials. The use of metal scrap in rapid tooling (RT) for injection molding is an interesting and viable approach. Recycling methods enable the recovery of valuable metal powders from various sources, such as electronic, industrial, and automobile scrap. Mechanical alloying is a potential opportunity for sustainable powder production as it has the capability to convert various starting materials with different initial sizes into powder particles through the ball milling process. Nevertheless, parameter factors, such as the type of ball milling, ball-to-powder ratio (BPR), rotation speed, grinding period, size and shape of the milling media, and process control agent (PCA), can influence the quality and characteristics of the metal powders produced. Despite potential drawbacks and environmental impacts, this process can still be a valuable method for recycling metals into powders. Further research is required to optimize the process. Furthermore, ball milling has been widely used in various industries, including recycling and metal mold production, to improve product properties in an environmentally friendly way. This review found that ball milling is the best tool for reducing the particle size of recycled metal chips and creating new metal powders to enhance mechanical properties and novelty for mold additive manufacturing (MAM) applications. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct further research on various parameters associated with ball milling to optimize the process of converting recycled copper chips into powder. This research will assist in attaining the highest level of efficiency and effectiveness in particle size reduction and powder quality. Lastly, this review also presents potential avenues for future research by exploring the application of RT in the ball milling technique.

The Materials Science behind Sustainable Metals and Alloys

Production of metals stands for 40% of all industrial greenhouse gas emissions, 10% of the global energy consumption, 3.2 billion tonnes of minerals mined, and several billion tonnes of by-products every year. Therefore, metals must become more sustainable. A circular economy model does not work, because market demand exceeds the available scrap currently by about two-thirds. Even under optimal conditions, at least one-third of the metals will also in the future come from primary production, creating huge emissions. Although the influence of metals on global warming has been discussed with respect to mitigation strategies and socio-economic factors, the fundamental materials science to make the metallurgical sector more sustainable has been less addressed. This may be attributed to the fact that the field of sustainable metals describes a global challenge, but not yet a homogeneous research field. However, the sheer magnitude of this challenge and its huge environmental effects, caused by more than 2 billion tonnes of metals produced every year, make its sustainability an essential research topic not only from a technological point of view but also from a basic materials research perspective. Therefore, this paper aims to identify and discuss the most pressing scientific bottleneck questions and key mechanisms, considering metal synthesis from primary (minerals), secondary (scrap), and tertiary (re-mined) sources as well as the energy-intensive downstream processing. Focus is placed on materials science aspects, particularly on those that help reduce CO₂ emissions, and less on process engineering or economy. The paper does not describe the devastating influence of metal-related greenhouse gas emissions on climate, but scientific approaches how to solve this problem, through research that can render metallurgy fossil-free. The content is considering only direct measures to metallurgical sustainability (production) and not indirect measures that materials leverage through their properties (strength, weight, longevity, functionality).

Transformation of used aluminium foil food container into AlOOH nanoflakes with high catalytic activity in anionic azo dye reduction

Synthesis of aluminium-based nanomaterials from aluminium-waste has received huge attention in current scientific research. Herein, an attempt was made to convert aluminium foil food container into aluminium oxyhydroxide (AlOOH) nanoparticles by a precipitation method. X-ray diffraction (XRD), spectroscopic and electron microscopic studies were employed to characterize impure AlOOH (containing sodium chloride, NaCl) and pure AlOOH samples. The band gap (E_g) of AlOOH nanoparticles was found to be 4.5 eV. The catalytic potential of AlOOH samples was evaluated using reduction of methyl orange (MO) and Eriochrome black T (EBT) dyes. Impure AlOOH nanoparticles could reduce 99.8% of MO and EBT dye within 4 min and 3 min respectively. Effect of the AlOOH dosage and NaBH₄ concentration on catalytic reduction was determined. Used aluminium foil food container-derived AlOOH nanoparticles will become a low-cost and sustainable catalyst in the catalytic treatment of azo dye contaminated waters.

Digitally-enhanced lubricant evaluation scheme for hot stamping applications

Digitally-enhanced technologies are set to transform every aspect of manufacturing. Networks of sensors that compute at the edge (streamlining information flow from devices and providing real-time local data analysis), and emerging Cloud Finite Element Analysis technologies yield data at unprecedented scales, both in terms of volume and precision, providing information on complex processes and systems that had previously been impractical. Cloud Finite Element Analysis technologies enable proactive data collection in a supply chain of, for example the metal forming industry, throughout the life cycle of a product or process, which presents revolutionary opportunities for the development and evaluation of digitally-enhanced lubricants, which requires a coherent research agenda involving the merging of tribological knowledge, manufacturing and data science. In the present study, data obtained from a vast number of experimentally verified finite element simulation results is used for a metal forming process to develop a digitally-enhanced lubricant evaluation approach, by precisely representing the tribological boundary conditions at the workpiece/tooling interface, i.e., complex loading conditions of contact pressures, sliding speeds and temperatures. The presented approach combines the implementation of digital characteristics of the target forming process, data-guided lubricant testing and mechanism-based accurate theoretical modelling, enabling the development of data-centric lubricant limit diagrams and intuitive and quantitative evaluation of the lubricant performance.

Exploring potential opportunities for the efficient development of the cobalt industry in China by quantitatively tracking cobalt flows during the entire life cycle from 2000 to 2021

Owing to its key role in high-tech industry and clean energy technology, cobalt has been regarded as a critical material in many countries. In this paper, material flow analysis was used to quantitatively track cobalt material flows in China throughout the entire life cycle from 2000 to 2021. Based on data pertaining to cobalt commodity trade, cobalt loss during raw material processing, and recovered cobalt, we analysed the actual cobalt consumption in China. During the study period from 2000 to 2021, the main findings were as follows: (1) China's cobalt raw material imports accounted for 84.7% of the total raw materials acquired, while the export of cobalt-containing end products amounted to 32.6% of the total production. (2) China's cumulative net import of all cobalt commodities reached 561 kt, and battery products accounted for 73.3% of the total cobalt consumption. (3) China recovered 77 kt of cobalt from end-of-life products, while 327 kt of cobalt was not recovered. (4) The cumulative cobalt loss during raw material processing reached 288 kt, with the highest loss occurring in refining (51.0%), followed by manufacturing and fabrication (26.5%), beneficiation (12.3%), and ore mining (10.2%). The overall utilization efficiency of cobalt was 73.8% throughout the entire life cycle. (5) China's actual cobalt consumption reached 497 kt, accounting for 51.9% of the apparent cobalt consumption. Moreover, 61.1% of the cobalt products produced in China was consumed domestically, while 38.9% was exported. The massive export of cobalt commodities resulted in China bearing a disproportionate responsibility for carbon emission reduction. The research results can provide a scientific reference for the reasonable adjustment of the trade structure of cobalt commodities and realization of the economic and efficient utilization of cobalt resources in China.

The Development Scenarios and Environmental Impacts of China's Aluminum Industry: Implications of Import and Export Transition

Aluminum is widely used in buildings, transportation, and home appliances. However, primary aluminum production is a resource, energy, and emission-intensive industrial process. As the world's largest aluminum producer, the aluminum industry (ALD) in China faces tremendous pressure on environmental protection. This study combines material flow analysis and scenario analysis to investigate the potential of resource conservation, energy saving, and emission reduction for China's ALD under the import and export trade transition. The results show China's per capita aluminum stock will follow a logistic curve to reach 415 kg/capita by 2030. However, unlike the continued build-up of stocks, domestic demand for aluminum will peak at 44 million tons (MT) in 2025 and fall to 36 MT in 2030. The scenario analysis reveals that China's primary aluminum output could peak in 2025 at around 52 MT if the restrictions are not implemented (Scenario A). Compared to Scenario A, demand for primary aluminum is effectively limited in Scenarios B and C where exports of aluminum products are reduced. Correspondingly, both scenarios also have obvious benefits in reducing the environmental load of China's ALD. Besides, if hydropower used in aluminum electrolysis increases to 25% by 2030, the total GHG emissions in 2030 will be reduced by 12%. Therefore, promoting import/export and energy mix transformation can become an essential means for the sustainable development of China's ALD.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40831-022-00582-0.

What Contribution Could Industrial Symbiosis Make to Mitigating Industrial Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Bulk Material Production?

In industrial symbiosis, byproducts and wastes are used to substitute other process inputs, with the goal of reducing the environmental impact of production. Potentially, such symbiosis could reduce greenhouse gas emissions; although there exists literature exploring this at specific industrial sites, there has not yet been a quantitative global assessment of the potential toward climate mitigation by industrial symbiosis in bulk material production of steel, cement, paper, and aluminum. A model based on physical production recipes is developed to estimate global mass flows for production of these materials with increasing levels of symbiosis. The results suggest that even with major changes to byproduct utilization in cement production, the emission reduction potential is low (7% of the total bulk material system emissions) and will decline as coal-fired electricity generation and blast furnace steel production are phased out. Introducing new technologies for heat recovery allows a greater potential reduction in emissions (up to 18%), but the required infrastructure and technologies have not yet been deployed at scale. Therefore, further industrial symbiosis is unlikely to make a significant contribution to GHG emission mitigation in bulk material production.

A solid-state electrolysis process for upcycling aluminium scrap

The recycling of aluminium scrap today utilizing a remelting technique downgrades the quality of the aluminium and the final sink of this down-graded recycled aluminium is aluminium casting alloys^1-9. The predicted increase in demand for high grade aluminium as consumers choose battery-powered electric vehicles over internal combustion engine vehicles is expected to be accompanied by a drop in the demand for low-grade recycled aluminium, which is mostly used in the production of internal combustion engines^2,7,10,11. To meet the demand for high-grade aluminium in the future, a new aluminium recycling method capable of upgrading scrap to a level similar to that of primary aluminium is required^2-4,7,11. Here we propose a solid-state electrolysis (SSE) process using molten salts for upcycling aluminium scrap. The SSE produces aluminium with a purity comparable to that of primary aluminium from aluminium casting alloys. Moreover, the energy consumption of the industrial SSE is estimated to be less than half that of the primary aluminium production process. By effectively recycling aluminium scrap, it could be possible to consistently meet our demand for high grade aluminium. True sustainability in the aluminium cycle is foreseeable with the use of this efficient, low energy-consuming process.

Systemic Approaches for Emission Reduction in Industrial Plants Based on Physical Accounting: Example for an Aluminum Smelter

Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting in industrial plants usually has multiple purposes, including mandatory reporting, shareholder and stakeholder communication, developing key performance indicators (KPIs), or informing cost-effective mitigation options. Current carbon accounting systems, such as the one required by the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), ignore the system context in which emissions occur. This hampers the identification and evaluation of comprehensive mitigation strategies considering linkages between materials, energy, and emissions. Here, we propose a carbon accounting method based on multilevel material flow analysis (MFA), which aims at addressing this gap. Using a Norwegian primary aluminum production plant as an example, we analyzed the material stocks and flows within this plant for total mass flows of goods as well as substances such as aluminum and carbon. The results show that the MFA-based accounting (i) is more robust than conventional tools due to mass balance consistency and higher granularity, (ii) allows monitoring the performance of the company and defines meaningful KPIs, (iii) can be used as a basis for the EU ETS reporting and linked to internal reporting, (iv) enables the identification and evaluation of systemic solutions and resource efficiency strategies for reducing emissions, and (v) has the potential to save costs.

Forecasting global aluminium flows to demonstrate the need for improved sorting and recycling methods

The probable emergence of a global aluminium scrap surplus in the coming decade is one of the main incentives for the aluminium recycling industry to invest in new methods and technologies to collect, sort and recycle aluminium scrap. However, due to the considerable uncertainty in the evolution of the global scrap surplus, it is difficult for policymakers and the recycling industry to accurately estimate the economic and environmental advantages of implementing enhanced sorting and recycling methods. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) has developed a model to track and forecast the global flows of aluminium, but this model is not extensive enough to estimate the scrap surplus evolution. Therefore, this paper introduces an alloy series resolution to the supply and demand of aluminium in the IAI's global flow model and estimates the composition of the recovered scrap flows to improve the estimate of the technical potential of secondary alloy production. The estimated scrap surplus evolution is subjected to a sensitivity analysis, considering the most critical parameters, including the speed of electrification in the automotive sector, the recovered scrap's composition and the lifetime of aluminium products. In addition, the estimated composition of the recovered aluminium scrap in the model is compared to composition measurements of alumimium scrap collected at a Belgian recycling facility as a means of validation. This study allows to estimate that the global aluminium scrap surplus will emerge soon and reach a size of 5.4 million tonnes by 2030 and 8.7 million tonnes by 2040, if currently adopted aluminium sorting and recycling methods are not improved.

Cost-Normalized Circular Economy Indicator and Its Application to Post-Consumer Plastic Packaging Waste

This work presents an adaptation of the material circularity indicator (MCI) that incorporates economic consideration. The Ellen MacArthur Foundation (EMF) has developed the MCI to characterize the sustainability, viz., the “circularity”, of a product by utilizing life cycle assessment data of a product range rather than a single product unit. Our new “circo-economic” indicator (MCIE), combines product MCI in relation to total product mass, with a cost-normalization against estimated plastic recycling costs, for both separately collected and municipal solid waste. This is applied to assess Dutch post-consumer plastic packaging waste comprising polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), film, and mixed plastic products. Results show that MCIE of separate plastic collection (0.81) exceeds municipal solid waste (0.73) for most plastics, thus suggesting that under cost normalization, there is greater conformity of separately collected washed and milled goods to the circular economy. Cost sensitivity analyses show that improvements in plastic sorting technology and policy incentives that enable the production of MSW washed and milled goods at levels comparable to their separately collected counterparts may significantly improve their MCI. We highlight data policy changes and industry collaboration as key to enhanced circularity—emphasized by the restrictive nature of current Dutch policy regarding the release of plastic production, recycling, and costing data, with a general industry reluctance against market integration of weight-benchmarked recycled plastics.

Taxonomy, Saving Potentials and Key Performance Indicators for Energy End-Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Aluminium Industry and Aluminium Casting Foundries

Increasing energy efficiency within the industrial sector is one of the main approaches in order to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. The production and processing of aluminium is energy and greenhouse gas intensive. To make well-founded decisions regarding energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigating investments, it is necessary to have relevant key performance indicators and information about energy end-use. This paper develops a taxonomy and key performance indicators for energy end-use and greenhouse gas emissions in the aluminium industry and aluminium casting foundries. This taxonomy is applied to the Swedish aluminium industry and two foundries. Potentials for energy saving and greenhouse gas mitigation are estimated regarding static facility operation. Electrolysis in primary production is by far the largest energy using and greenhouse gas emitting process within the Swedish aluminium industry. Notably, almost half of the total greenhouse gas emissions from electrolysis comes from process-related emissions, while the other half comes from the use of electricity. In total, about 236 GWh/year (or 9.2% of the total energy use) and 5588–202,475 tonnes CO2eq/year can be saved in the Swedish aluminium industry and two aluminium casting foundries. The most important key performance indicators identified for energy end-use and greenhouse gas emissions are MWh/tonne product and tonne CO2-eq/tonne product. The most beneficial option would be to allocate energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to both the process or machine level and the product level, as this would give a more detailed picture of the company’s energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Unveiling Carbon Emission Attributions along Sale Chains

Substantial anthropogenic emissions have resulted in serious environmental problems in China. Direct emissions and demand-pulled emissions along the supply chains have been extensively investigated. However, understanding the mechanism of how the sectoral emission is transferred through production activities along the sale chains at different production layers remains a challenge. In this paper, a top-down multilayer emission attribution model is developed to unveil the metabolism of multilayer input-driven emissions. For the first time, a diagramming approach enables the exhaustive depiction of the connections between primary input attributions and final production attributions, which allows accurate reallocation of the emission responsibilities to sectors at different production layers. Individual sale chain paths and supply chain paths have been extracted and ranked according to the contributions of emissions. A four-perspective comparison of sectoral emissions (i.e., direct emissions along sale chains, enabled emissions, direct emissions along the supply chains, and embodied emissions) is assessed. We find that at multiple production layers, sectoral direct emissions along the sale chains differ greatly from direct emissions along the supply chains. By comprehensively considering providers, consumers, and producers within a metabolic system, policy-makers should encourage upstream sectors to improve their cleaner production technologies and downstream sectors to adjust their industrial structures.

Aluminum and magnesium status during pregnancy and placenta oxidative stress and inflammatory mRNA expression: China Ma'anshan birth cohort study

The aim of this study was to explore the impact of prenatal Al and Mg on placental oxidative stress and inflammatory mRNA expression. A total of 2519 pregnant women from the China Ma'anshan birth cohort participated in this study. Al and Mg levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Placental stress and inflammatory mRNA expression were assessed by RT-PCR. The median Al levels in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy and in cord blood were higher than the corresponding median Mg levels. Predictors of lower Al and Mg levels included Han ethnicity and high education according to a mixed linear model. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that Al and Al/Mg levels had a positive association with inflammatory mRNA expression and placental oxidative stress in the second trimester of pregnancy. A negative association existed between Al and Al/Mg levels and inflammatory mRNA expression and placenta oxidative stress in the cord blood, with the exception of IL-1β expression. In conclusion, prenatal Al and Mg status was associated with placental oxidative stress and inflammatory mRNA expression. More preclinical studies are needed to confirm the relevant mechanism.

Finite Element Analysis of Grain Size Effects on Curvature in Micro-Extrusion

The precision and accuracy of the final geometry in micro-parts is crucial, particularly for high-value-added metallic products. Micro-extrusion is one of the most promising processes for delivering high-precision micro-parts. The curving tendency observed in micro-extrusion parts is a major concern, significantly affecting the final part geometry. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the driving mechanism behind the curvature in micro-extrusion at room temperature. A finite element (FE) simulation was carried out to observe the influential primary factors: (1) grain size, (2) grain boundary, (3) grain orientation, and (4) bearing length of a 6063 aluminum alloy. The Extrusion Curvature Index (ECI) was also established to indicate the level of curvature in micro-extruded parts. The results showed that the grain boundary at the high strain and die opening area was the dominant factor for single-grain conditions. The interactive effects of the grain boundary and grain orientation also affected the curvature under single-grain conditions. If the number of grains across the specimen increased up to 2.7 (poly-grains), the curvature effect was dramatically reduced (the pins were straightened). For all conditions, the curvature in micro-extrusion could be eliminated by extending the bearing length up to the exit diameter length.

Circular Economy Concept in the Context of Economic Development in EU Countries

The need has arisen to implement a circular economic model that enables economic growth and prosperity in accordance with environmental protection and sustainable development because of the current unsustainable linear means of production in the economy. The aim of this paper is to determine the application of the circular economy concept in member countries of the European Union from 2008 to 2016. The purpose is to analyse whether economic development measured by GDP (gross domestic product) affects the analysed circular economy variables. Based on the hypotheses set, an econometric model was formed where GDP was identified as an independent variable, while the dependent variables were the production of municipal waste per capita, the recycling rate of municipal waste, the recycling rate of packaging waste by type of packaging, the recycling of bio-waste, and the recycling rate of e-waste. The first part of the statistical analysis conducted using the Stata software package shows the Pearson correlation between the abovestated variables, while the second part explores the univariate regression model. The results point towards the conclusion that the application of the circular economy concept can ensure economic growth and GDP growth while reducing the use of natural resources and ensuring greater environmental protection.

Mapping anthropogenic mineral generation in China and its implications for a circular economy

Anthropogenic mineral is absorbing wide concern in the context of circular economy, but its generation mechanism and quantity from product to waste remain unclear. Here we consider three product groups, 30 products, and use the revised Weibull lifespan model to map the generation of anthropogenic mineral and 23 types of the capsulated materials by targeting their evolution from 2010 to 2050. Total weight of anthropogenic mineral on average in China reached 39 Mt in 2010, but it will double in 2022 and quadruple in 2045. Stocks of precious metals and rare earths will increase faster than most base materials. The total economic potential in yearly-generated anthropogenic mineral is anticipated to grow markedly from 100 billion US$ in 2020 to 400 billion US$ in 2050. Furthermore, anthropogenic mineral of around 20 materials will be capable to meet projected consumption of three product groups by 2050.

While a large quantity of underground mineral resources can be converted into manufactured products, a majority is still solid waste disposal. Here the authors found a large increase in total weight of anthropogenic mineral from 2010 to 2050 with faster growth rate for precious metals.

Source Risks As Constraints to Future Metal Supply

Rising consumer demand is driving concerns around the "availability" and "criticality" of metals. Methodologies have emerged to assess the risks related to global metal supply. None have specifically examined the initial supply source: the mine site where primary ore is extracted. Environmental, social, and governance ("ESG") risks are critical to the development of new mining projects and the conversion of resources to mine production. In this paper, we offer a methodology that assesses the inherent complexities surrounding extractives projects. It includes eight ESG risk categories that overlay the locations of undeveloped iron, copper, and aluminum orebodies that will be critical to future supply. The percentage of global reserves and resources that are located in complex ESG contexts (i.e., with four or more concurrent medium-to-high risks) is 47% for iron, 63% for copper, and 88% for aluminum. This work contributes to research by providing a more complete understanding of source level constraints and risks to supply.

Statistical Analysis of the Combined ECAP and Heat Treatment for Recycling Aluminum Chips Without Remelting

The main aim of this paper is to present an environmentally friendly method for aluminum recycling. Development of new recycling technologies in order to increase scrap reuse potential and CO2 emission savings are of the main importance for aluminum circular economy. In this paper, aluminum chips waste was recycled without any remelting phase in order to increase energy and material savings. The presented process is usually called solid state recycling or direct recycling. Solid state recycling process consists of chips cleaning, cold pre-compaction and hot direct extrusion followed by a combination of equal channel angular pressing (ECAP) and heat treatment. Influence of holding time during solid solution treatment and both artificial aging time and temperature on mechanical properties of the recycled EN AW 6082 aluminum chips were investigated. A comprehensive number of the experiments were performed utilizing design of experiments approach and response surface methodology. Regression models were developed for describe the influence of heat treatment parameters for presented solid state recycling process on mechanical properties of the recycled samples. Utilizing novel procedure high quality recycled samples were obtained with mechanical properties comparable with commercially produced EN AW 6082 aluminum alloy in T6 temper condition. Metallographic analysis of the recycled samples was also performed.

Life Cycle Analysis of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Automotive Applications

In light of the increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the global vehicle market, understanding the environmental impacts of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) that characterize the EVs is key to sustainable EV deployment. This study analyzes the cradle-to-gate total energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, SOx, NOx, PM10 emissions, and water consumption associated with current industrial production of lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries, with the battery life cycle analysis (LCA) module in the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model, which was recently updated with primary data collected from large-scale commercial battery material producers and automotive LIB manufacturers. The results show that active cathode material, aluminum, and energy use for cell production are the major contributors to the energy and environmental impacts of NMC batteries. However, this study also notes that the impacts could change significantly, depending on where in the world the battery is produced, and where the materials are sourced. In an effort to harmonize existing LCAs of automotive LIBs and guide future research, this study also lays out differences in life cycle inventories (LCIs) for key battery materials among existing LIB LCA studies, and identifies knowledge gaps.

Measuring Progress towards a Circular Economy: A Monitoring Framework for Economy-wide Material Loop Closing in the EU28

The concept of a circular economy (CE) is gaining increasing attention from policy makers, industry, and academia. There is a rapidly evolving debate on definitions, limitations, the contribution to a wider sustainability agenda, and a need for indicators to assess the effectiveness of circular economy measures at larger scales. Herein, we present a framework for a comprehensive and economy-wide biophysical assessment of a CE, utilizing and systematically linking official statistics on resource extraction and use and waste flows in a mass-balanced approach. This framework builds on the widely applied framework of economy-wide material flow accounting and expands it by integrating waste flows, recycling, and downcycled materials. We propose a comprehensive set of indicators that measure the scale and circularity of total material and waste flows and their socioeconomic and ecological loop closing. We applied this framework in the context of monitoring efforts for a CE in the European Union (EU28) for the year 2014. We found that 7.4 gigatons (Gt) of materials were processed in the EU and only 0.71 Gt of them were secondary materials. The derived input socioeconomic cycling rate of materials was therefore 9.6%. Further, of the 4.8 Gt of interim output flows, 14.8% were recycled or downcycled. Based on these findings and our first efforts in assessing sensitivity of the framework, a number of improvements are deemed necessary: improved reporting of wastes, explicit modeling of societal in-use stocks, introduction of criteria for ecological cycling, and disaggregated mass-based indicators to evaluate environmental impacts of different materials and circularity initiatives.

Energy Efficiency in the Supply Chains of the Aluminium Industry: The Cases of Five Products Made in Sweden

Improved energy efficiency in supply chains can reduce both environmental impact and lifecycle costs, and thus becomes a competitive advantage in the work towards a sustainable global economy. Viewing the supply chain as a system provides the holistic perspective needed to avoid sub-optimal energy use. This article studies measures relating to technology and management that can increase energy efficiency in the supply chains of five aluminium products made in Sweden. Additionally, energy efficiency potentials related to the flows of material, energy, and knowledge between the actors in the supply chains are studied. Empirical data was collected using focus group interviews and one focus group per product was completed. The results show that there are several areas for potential energy efficiency improvement; for example, product design, communication and collaboration, transportation, and reduced material waste. Demands from other actors that can have direct or indirect effects on energy use in the supply chains were identified. Despite the fact that companies can save money through improved energy efficiency, demands from customers and the authorities would provide the additional incentives needed for companies to work harder to improve energy efficiency.

Prenatal Exposure to Aluminum and Status of Selected Essential Trace Elements in Rural South African Women at Delivery

This study sought to evaluate the in utero exposure to aluminum and status of selected trace elements in South African women at delivery since aluminum is known to be toxic in all developmental stages even at low concentrations. Serum aluminum was negatively correlated with aluminum in urine, both uncorrected and corrected for creatinine, which suggests the retention of aluminum in body stores. Serum copper and zinc levels were found to be high in this study population. Serum copper levels were negatively correlated with aluminum in serum (β = -0.095; p = 0.05). There was a marginal negative correlation between aluminum levels in serum and manganese levels in whole blood (β = -0.087; p = 0.08). Copper levels in maternal serum were negatively correlated with birth weight and the length of neonates. There were a number of positive correlations between maternal characteristics and birth outcomes. Mothers who consumed root vegetables frequently appeared to be protected from aluminum retention and increased body burden since their serum aluminum levels were found to be significantly lower. The findings of the current study can be used as a baseline for further research on aluminum exposure and its associated interactions and outcomes in vulnerable populations.

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Mapping Global Flows of Chemicals: From Fossil Fuel Feedstocks to Chemical Products

Chemical products are ubiquitous in modern society. The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy consumer and the third largest industrial emitter of carbon dioxide. The current portfolio of mitigation options for the chemical sector emphasizes upstream "supply side" solutions, whereas downstream mitigation options, such as material efficiency, are given comparatively short shrift. Key reasons for this are the scarcity of data on the sector's material flows, and the highly intertwined nature of its complex supply chains. We provide the most up to date, comprehensive and transparent data set available publicly, on virgin production routes in the chemical sector: from fossil fuel feedstocks to chemical products. We map global mass flows for the year 2013 through a complex network of transformation processes, and by taking account of secondary reactants and by-products, we maintain a full mass balance throughout. The resulting data set partially addresses the dearth of publicly available information on the chemical sector's supply chain, and can be used to prioritise downstream mitigation options.

Metal Dissipation and Inefficient Recycling Intensify Climate Forcing

In the metals industry, recycling is commonly included among the most viable options for climate change mitigation, because using secondary (recycled) instead of primary sources in metal production carries both the potential for significant energy savings and for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Secondary metal production is, however, limited by the relative quantity of scrap available at end-of-life for two reasons: long product lifespans during use delay the availability of the material for reuse and recycling; and end-of-life recycling rates are low, a result of inefficient collection, separation, and processing. For a few metals, additional losses exist in the form of in-use dissipation. The sum of these lost material flows forms the theoretical maximum potential for future efficiency improvements. Based on a dynamic material flow analysis, we have evaluated these factors from an energy perspective for 50 metals and calculated the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions associated with the supply of lost material from primary sources that would otherwise be used to satisfy demand. A use-by-use examination demonstrates the potential emission gains associated with major application sectors. The results show that minimizing in-use dissipation and constraints to metal recycling have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the metal industry by about 13-23%, corresponding to 1% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Dynamic material flow modeling: an effort to calibrate and validate aluminum stocks and flows in Austria

A calibrated and validated dynamic material flow model of Austrian aluminum (Al) stocks and flows between 1964 and 2012 was developed. Calibration and extensive plausibility testing was performed to illustrate how the quality of dynamic material flow analysis can be improved on the basis of the consideration of independent bottom-up estimates. According to the model, total Austrian in-use Al stocks reached a level of 360 kg/capita in 2012, with buildings (45%) and transport applications (32%) being the major in-use stocks. Old scrap generation (including export of end-of-life vehicles) amounted to 12.5 kg/capita in 2012, still being on the increase, while Al final demand has remained rather constant at around 25 kg/capita in the past few years. The application of global sensitivity analysis showed that only small parts of the total variance of old scrap generation could be explained by the variation of single parameters, emphasizing the need for comprehensive sensitivity analysis tools accounting for interaction between parameters and time-delay effects in dynamic material flow models. Overall, it was possible to generate a detailed understanding of the evolution of Al stocks and flows in Austria, including plausibility evaluations of the results. Such models constitute a reliable basis for evaluating future recycling potentials, in particular with respect to application-specific qualities of current and future national Al scrap generation and utilization.

Global carbon benefits of material substitution in passenger cars until 2050 and the impact on the steel and aluminum industries

Light-weighting of passenger cars using high-strength steel or aluminum is a common emissions mitigation strategy. We provide a first estimate of the global impact of light-weighting by material substitution on GHG emissions from passenger cars and the steel and aluminum industries until 2050. We develop a dynamic stock model of the global car fleet and combine it with a dynamic MFA of the associated steel, aluminum, and energy supply industries. We propose four scenarios for substitution of conventional steel with high-strength steel and aluminum at different rates over the period 2010-2050. We show that light-weighting of passenger cars can become a "gigaton solution": Between 2010 and 2050, persistent light-weighting of passenger cars can, under optimal conditions, lead to cumulative GHG emissions savings of 9-18 gigatons CO2-eq compared to development business-as-usual. Annual savings can be up to 1 gigaton per year. After 2030, enhanced material recycling can lead to further reductions: closed-loop metal recycling in the automotive sector may reduce cumulative emissions by another 4-6 gigatons CO2-eq. The effectiveness of emissions mitigation by material substitution significantly depends on how the recycling system evolves. At present, policies focusing on tailpipe emissions and life cycle assessments of individual cars do not consider this important effect.

Thermodynamic Analysis for the Refining Ability of Salt Flux for Aluminum Recycling

The removability of impurities during the aluminum remelting process by oxidation was previously investigated by our research group. In the present work, alternative impurity removal with chlorination has been evaluated by thermodynamic analysis. For 43 different elements, equilibrium distribution ratios among metal, chloride flux and oxide slag phases in the aluminum remelting process were calculated by assuming the binary systems of aluminum and an impurity element. It was found that the removability of impurities isn’t significantly affected by process parameters such as chloride partial pressure, temperature and flux composition. It was shown that Ho, Dy, Li, La, Mg, Gd, Ce, Yb, Ca and Sr can be potentially eliminated into flux by chlorination from the remelted aluminum. Chlorination and oxidation are not effective to remove other impurities from the melting aluminum, due to the limited parameters which can be controlled during the remelting process. It follows that a proper management of aluminum scrap such as sorting based on the composition of the products is important for sustainable aluminum recycling.

On the materials basis of modern society

It is indisputable that modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Those technologies do many things very well, largely because each material is used for purposes to which it is exquisitely fitted. The result over time has been a steady increase in product performance. We show that this materials complexity has markedly increased in the past half-century and that elemental life cycle analyses characterize rates of recycling and loss. A further concern is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. Should materials availability constraints occur, the use of substitute materials comes to mind. We studied substitution potential by generating a comprehensive summary of potential substitutes for 62 different metals in all their major uses and of the performance of the substitutes in those applications. As we show herein, for a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. This situation largely decouples materials substitution from price, thereby forcing material design changes to be primarily transformative rather than incremental. As wealth and population increase worldwide in the next few decades, scientists will be increasingly challenged to maintain and improve product utility by designing new and better materials, but doing so under potential constraints in resource availability.

Mapping the global journey of anthropogenic aluminum: a trade-linked multilevel material flow analysis

Material cycles have become increasingly coupled and interconnected in a globalizing era. While material flow analysis (MFA) has been widely used to characterize stocks and flows along technological life cycle within a specific geographical area, trade networks among individual cycles have remained largely unexplored. Here we developed a trade-linked multilevel MFA model to map the contemporary global journey of anthropogenic aluminum. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic aluminum cycle depends substantially on international trade of aluminum in all forms and becomes highly interconnected in nature. While the Southern hemisphere is the main primary resource supplier, aluminum production and consumption concentrate in the Northern hemisphere, where we also find the largest potential for recycling. The more developed countries tend to have a substantial and increasing presence throughout the stages after bauxite refining and possess highly consumption-based cycles, thus maintaining advantages both economically and environmentally. A small group of countries plays a key role in the global redistribution of aluminum and in the connectivity of the network, which may render some countries vulnerable to supply disruption. The model provides potential insights to inform government and industry policies in resource criticality, supply chain security, value chain management, and cross-boundary environmental impacts mitigation.

Human exposure to aluminium

Human activities have circumvented the efficient geochemical cycling of aluminium within the lithosphere and therewith opened a door, which was previously only ajar, onto the biotic cycle to instigate and promote the accumulation of aluminium in biota and especially humans. Neither these relatively recent activities nor the entry of aluminium into the living cycle are showing any signs of abating and it is thus now imperative that we understand as fully as possible how humans are exposed to aluminium and the future consequences of a burgeoning exposure and body burden. The aluminium age is upon us and there is now an urgent need to understand how to live safely and effectively with aluminium.

Designing climate change mitigation plans that add up

Mitigation plans to combat climate change depend on the combined implementation of many abatement options, but the options interact. Published anthropogenic emissions inventories are disaggregated by gas, sector, country, or final energy form. This allows the assessment of novel energy supply options, but is insufficient for understanding how options for efficiency and demand reduction interact. A consistent framework for understanding the drivers of emissions is therefore developed, with a set of seven complete inventories reflecting all technical options for mitigation connected through lossless allocation matrices. The required data set is compiled and calculated from a wide range of industry, government, and academic reports. The framework is used to create a global Sankey diagram to relate human demand for services to anthropogenic emissions. The application of this framework is demonstrated through a prediction of per-capita emissions based on service demand in different countries, and through an example showing how the "technical potentials" of a set of separate mitigation options should be combined.