Climate variability and North Sea cod

Robust fisheries management strategies under deep uncertainty

Fisheries worldwide face uncertain futures as climate change manifests in environmental effects of hitherto unseen strengths. Developing climate-ready management strategies traditionally requires a good mechanistic understanding of stock response to climate change in order to build projection models for testing different exploitation levels. Unfortunately, model-based projections of fish stocks are severely limited by large uncertainties in the recruitment process, as the required stock-recruitment relationship is usually not well represented by data. An alternative is to shift focus to improving the decision-making process, as postulated by the decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) framework. Robust Decision Making (RDM), a key DMDU concept, aims at identifying management decisions that are robust to a vast range of uncertain scenarios. Here we employ RDM to investigate the capability of North Sea cod to support a sustainable and economically viable fishery under future climate change. We projected the stock under 40,000 combinations of exploitation levels, emission scenarios and stock-recruitment parameterizations and found that model uncertainties and exploitation have similar importance for model outcomes. Our study revealed that no management strategy exists that is fully robust to the uncertainty in relation to model parameterization and future climate change. We instead propose a risk assessment that accounts for the trade-offs between stock conservation and profitability under deep uncertainty.

Addressing the dichotomy of fishing and climate in fishery management with the FishClim model

The relative influence of fishing and Climate-Induced Environmental Change (CIEC) on long-term fluctuations in exploited fish stocks has been controversial1–3 because separating their contributions is difficult for two reasons. Firstly, there is in general, no estimation of CIEC for a pre-fishing period and secondly, the assessment of the effects of fishing on stocks has taken place at the same time as CIEC4. Here, we describe a new model we have called FishClim that we apply to North Sea cod from 1963 to 2019 to estimate how fishing and CIEC interact and how they both may affect stocks in the future (2020-2100) using CMIP6 scenarios5. The FishClim model shows that both fishing and CIEC are intertwined and can either act synergistically (e.g. the 2000-2007 collapse) or antagonistically (e.g. second phase of the gadoid outburst). Failure to monitor CIEC, so that fisheries management immediately adjusts fishing effort in response to environmentally-driven shifts in stock productivity, will therefore create a deleterious response lag that may cause the stock to collapse. We found that during 1963-2019, although the effect of fishing and CIEC drivers fluctuated annually, the pooled influence of fishing and CIEC on the North Sea cod stock was nearly equal at ~55 and ~45%, respectively. Consequently, the application of FishClim, which quantifies precisely the respective influence of fishing and climate, will help to develop better strategies for sustainable, long-term, fish stock management.

Warming Accelerates the Onset of the Molecular Stress Response and Increases Mortality of Larval Atlantic Cod

Temperature profoundly affects ectotherm physiology. Although differential thermal responses influence fitness, thus driving population dynamics and species distributions, our understanding of the molecular architecture underlying these responses is limited, especially during the critical larval stage. Here, using RNA-sequencing of laboratory-reared Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) larvae of wild origin, we find changes in gene expression in thousands of transcripts consistent with a severe cellular stress response at both ambient and projected (+2°C and +4°C) temperatures. In addition, specific responses to stress, heat, and hypoxia were commonly identified in gene ontology enrichment analyses and 33 of the 44 genes comprising the minimum stress proteome of all organisms were upregulated. Earlier onset of the stress response was evident at higher temperatures; concomitant increased growth and mortality suggests a reduction in fitness. Temporal differences in gene expression levels do not correspond to differences in growing degree days, suggesting negative physiological consequences of warming beyond accelerated development. Because gene expression is costly, we infer that the upregulation of thousands of transcripts in response to warming in larval cod might act as an energetic drain. We hypothesize that the energetically costly stress response, coupled with increased growth rate at warmer temperatures, leads to faster depletion of energy reserves and increased risk of mortality in larval cod. As sea surface temperatures continue to rise over the next century, reduced fitness of Atlantic cod larvae might lead to population declines in this ecologically and socioeconomically important species. Further, our findings expand our understanding of transcriptomic responses to temperature by ectothermic vertebrate larvae beyond the critical first-feeding stage, a time when organisms begin balancing the energetic demands of growth, foraging, development, and maintenance. Linking the molecular basis of a thermal response to key fitness-related traits is fundamentally important to predicting how global warming will affect ectotherms.

Building bridges between natural and social science disciplines: a standardized methodology to combine data on ecosystem quality trends

Despite a growing interest in interdisciplinary research, systematic ways of how to integrate data from different disciplines are still scarce. We argue that successful resource management relies on two key data sources: natural science data, which represents ecosystem structure and processes, and social science data, which describes people's perceptions and understanding. Both are vital, mutually complementing information sources that can underpin the development of feasible and effective policies and management interventions. To harvest the added value of combined knowledge, a uniform scaling system is needed. In this paper, we propose a standardized methodology to connect and explore different types of quantitative data from the natural and social sciences reflecting temporal trends in ecosystem quality. We demonstrate this methodology with different types of data such as fisheries stocks and mangrove cover on the one hand and community's perceptions on the other. The example data are collected from three United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Biosphere reserves and one marine park in Southeast Asia. To easily identify patterns of convergence or divergence among the datasets, we propose heat maps using colour codes and icons for language- and education-independent understandability. Finally, we discuss the limitations as well as potential implications for resource management and the accompanying communication strategies.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems’.

Manipulating the strength of organism-environment feedback increases nonlinearity and apparent hysteresis of ecosystem response to environmental change

Theory predicts that organism-environment feedbacks play a central role in how ecological communities respond to environmental change. Strong feedback causes greater nonlinearity between environmental change and ecosystem state, increases the likelihood of hysteresis in response to environmental change, and augments the possibility of alternative stable regimes. To illustrate these predictions and their dependence on a temporal scale, we simulated a minimal ecosystem model. To test the predictions, we manipulated the feedback strength between the metabolism and the dissolved oxygen concentration in an aquatic heterotrophic tri-trophic community in microecosystems. The manipulation consisted of five levels, ranging from low to high feedback strength by altering the oxygen diffusivity: free gas exchange between the microcosm atmosphere and the external air (metabolism not strongly affecting environmental oxygen), with the regular addition of 200, 100, or 50 ml of air and no gas exchange. To test for nonlinearity and hysteresis in response to environmental change, all microecosystems experienced a gradual temperature increase from 15 to 25°C and then back to 15°C. We regularly measured the dissolved oxygen concentration, total biomass, and species abundance. Nonlinearity and hysteresis were higher in treatments with stronger organism-environment feedbacks. There was no evidence that stronger feedback increased the number of observed ecosystem states. These empirical results are in broad agreement with the theory that stronger feedback increases nonlinearity and hysteresis. They therefore represent one of the first direct empirical tests of the importance of feedback strength. However, we discuss several limitations of the study, which weaken confidence in this interpretation. Research demonstrating the causal effects of feedback strength on ecosystem responses to environmental change should be placed at the core of efforts to plan for sustainable ecosystems.

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod

There are concerns that increasing anthropogenic stressors can cause catastrophic transitions in ecosystems. Such shifts have large social, economic, and ecological consequences and therefore have important management implications. A potential mechanism behind these regime shifts is the Allee effect, which describes the decline in realized per capita growth rate at small population density. With an age-structured population model for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, we illustrate how interactions between human-induced stressors, such as fishing and climate change, can worsen the impact of an Allee effect on populations by promoting hysteresis. Therefore, the risk of population collapse and recovery failure is exacerbated and the success of preventing and reverting collapse depends on the climate regime. We find that, in presence of the Allee effect, a fishing moratorium is only sufficient for recovery when sea surface temperature rise remains within 2°C and fishing is restricted within 10 yrs. If sea surface temperature rises beyond 2°C, even immediate banning of fishing is not sufficient to guarantee recovery. If fishing is not fully banned and a residual fishing pressure remains, the probability of recovery is further decreased, also in the absence of an Allee effect. The results underscore the decisive role of Allee effects for the management of depleted populations in an increasingly human-dominated world. Once the population collapses and its growth rate is suppressed, rebuilding measures will be squandered and collapse will very likely be irreversible. We therefore emphasize the need for proactive management involving precautionary, adaptive measures and reference points. Our studies shows that climate change has the potential to strengthen Allee effects, which could increasingly challenge fisheries management.

Assessing impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Coregonus ussuriensis and other coldwater fishes in northern China

Climate change seriously affects habitat suitability for coldwater fish. Amur whitefish (Coregonus ussuriensis) is a commercially important coldwater fish species found in northeast China that is particularly sensitive to water temperature. We use water temperature models for Songhua (Harbin to Yilan) and Mayi rivers to predict habitat suitability for Amur whitefish and other coldwater fish species during the months of July and August in 2014 and 2100-2 months during which river temperatures can reach extremes. The predict-results showed that fish habitat was to deteriorate over time, and to be less suitable for survival of coldwater fish species in 2100 than that in 2014. Under scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5), the time period during which habitat for Amur whitefish was unsuitable increased continually; under scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), Amur whitefish might even disappear from the river basin. A significant increase in river water temperature will compromise coldwater fish survival and possibly lead to their disappearance. Practical measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the impact of global warming on aquatic ecosystems must be taken.

Do New World pitvipers "scale-down" at high elevations? Macroecological patterns of scale characters and body size

Bergmann's rule describes the macroecological pattern of increasing body size in response to higher latitudes and elevations. This pattern is extensively documented in endothermic vertebrates, within and among species; however, studies involving ectotherms are less common and suggest no consistent pattern for amphibians and reptiles. Moreover, adaptive traits, such as epidermal features like scales, have not been widely examined in conjunction with Bergmann's rule, even though these traits affect physiological processes, such as thermoregulation, which are hypothesized as underlying mechanisms for the pattern. Here, we investigate how scale characters correlate with elevation among 122 New World pitviper species, representing 15 genera. We found a contra-Bergmann's pattern, where body size is smaller at higher elevations. This pattern was mainly driven by the presence of small-bodied clades at high elevations and large-bodied clades at low elevations, emphasizing the importance of taxonomic scope in studying macroecological patterns. Within a subset of speciose clades, we found that only Crotalus demonstrated a significant negative relationship between body size and elevation, perhaps because of its wide elevational range. In addition, we found a positive correlation between scale counts and body size but no independent effect of elevation on scale numbers. Our study increases our knowledge of Bergmann's rule in reptiles by specifically examining characters of squamation and suggests a need to reexamine macroecological patterns for this group.

Influences of Global Warming on the Larval Survival and Transport of Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in the Sea of Japan

The snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) sustains an important bottom trawling fishery in the Sea of Japan. Its response to global warming is attracting the attention of the public. Using a transport and survival model for crab larvae in the Sea of Japan, we examined the spatial-temporal variations of crab spawning and larval settlement in the past (mid-20th century), present (early 21st century), and future (mid- and late 21st century) under the low and high radiative forcing scenarios. It was found that the variations in spawning differed between the regions south of and north of 41.5° N, on both seasonal and long-term scales. Larval settlement in the Sea of Japan was projected to increase in the future, which is mainly attributed to a reduction in mortality due to the low water temperature. Moreover, the aggregating location of the settled megalopae will likely shift northward, with increasing settlement off Hokkaido Island. With additional sensitivity experiments, we confirmed that the change in water temperature has a stronger impact on larval settlement than that in the current field. The change in water temperature controlled both the amount and distribution of crab larval settlement, while a change in current field only affected the distribution to some extent.

Spatially-Resolved Influence of Temperature and Salinity on Stock and Recruitment Variability of Commercially Important Fishes in the North Sea

Understanding of the processes affecting recruitment of commercially important fish species is one of the major challenges in fisheries science. Towards this aim, we investigated the relation between North Sea hydrography (temperature and salinity) and fish stock variables (recruitment, spawning stock biomass and pre-recruitment survival index) for 9 commercially important fishes using spatially-resolved cross-correlation analysis. We used high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) hydrographic data fields matching the maximal temporal extent of the fish population assessments (1948-2013). Our approach allowed for the identification of regions in the North Sea where environmental variables seem to be more influential on the fish stocks, as well as the regions of a lesser or nil influence. Our results confirmed previously demonstrated negative correlations between temperature and recruitment of cod and plaice and identified regions of the strongest correlations (German Bight for plaice and north-western North Sea for cod). We also revealed a positive correlation between herring spawning stock biomass and temperature in the Orkney-Shetland area, as well as a negative correlation between sole pre-recruitment survival index and temperature in the German Bight. A strong positive correlation between sprat stock variables and salinity in the central North Sea was also found. To our knowledge the results concerning correlations between North Sea hydrography and stocks' dynamics of herring, sole and sprat are novel. The new information about spatial distribution of the correlation provides an additional help to identify mechanisms underlying these correlations. As an illustration of the utility of these results for fishery management, an example is provided that incorporates the identified environmental covariates in stock-recruitment models.

Changes in behaviour drive inter-annual variability in the at-sea distribution of northern gannets

The at-sea distribution of seabirds primarily depends on the distance from their breeding colony, and the abundance, distribution and predictability of their prey, which are subject to strong spatial and temporal variation. Many seabirds have developed flexible foraging strategies to deal with this variation, such as increasing their foraging effort or switching to more predictable, less energy dense, prey, in poor conditions. These responses may vary both within and between individuals, and understanding this variability is vital to predict the population-level impacts of spatially explicit environmental disturbances, such as offshore windfarms. We conducted a multi-year tracking study in order to investigate the inter-annual variation in the foraging behaviour and location of a population of northern gannets breeding on Alderney in the English Channel. To do so, we investigated the link between individual-level behaviour and population-level behaviour. We found that a sample of gannets tracked in 2015 had longer trip durations, travelled further from the colony and had larger core foraging areas and home range areas than gannets tracked in previous years. This inter-annual variation may be associated with oceanographic conditions indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our findings suggest that this inter-annual variation was driven by individuals visiting larger areas in all of their trips rather than individuals diversifying to visit more, distinct areas. These findings suggest that, for gannets at least, if prey becomes less abundant or more widely distributed, more individuals may be required to forage further from the colony, thus increasing their likelihood of encountering pressures from spatially explicit anthropogenic disturbances.

Variation in spawning time promotes genetic variability in population responses to environmental change in a marine fish

The level of phenotypic plasticity displayed within a population (i.e. the slope of the reaction norm) reflects the short-term response of a population to environmental change, while variation in reaction norm slopes among populations reflects spatial variation in these responses. Thus far, studies of thermal reaction norm variation have focused on geographically driven adaptation among different latitudes, altitudes or habitats. Yet, thermal variability is a function of both space and time. For organisms that reproduce at different times of year, such variation has the potential to promote adaptive variability in thermal responses for critical early life stages. Using common-garden experiments, we examined the spatial scale of genetic variation in thermal plasticity for early life-history traits among five populations of endangered Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) that spawn at different times of year. Patterns of plasticity for larval growth and survival suggest that population responses to climate change will differ substantially, with increasing water temperatures posing a considerably greater threat to autumn-spawning cod than to those that spawn in winter or spring. Adaptation to seasonal cooling or warming experienced during the larval stage is suggested as a possible cause. Furthermore, populations that experience relatively cold temperatures during early life might be more sensitive to changes in temperature. Substantial divergence in adaptive traits was evident at a smaller spatial scale than has previously been shown for a marine fish with no apparent physical barriers to gene flow (∼200 km). Our findings highlight the need to consider the impact of intraspecific variation in reproductive timing on thermal adaptation when forecasting the effects of climate change on animal populations.

Temperature during early development has long-term effects on microRNA expression in Atlantic cod

Background

Environmental temperature has serious implications in life cycle of aquatic ectotherms. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of temperature acclimation and adaptation of marine organisms is of the uttermost importance for ecology, fisheries, and aquaculture, as it allows modeling the effects of global warming on population dynamics. Regulatory molecules are major modulators of acclimation and adaptation; among them, microRNAs (miRNAs) are versatile and substantial contributors to regulatory networks of development and adaptive plasticity. However, their role in thermal plasticity is poorly known. We have asked whether the temperature and its shift during the early ontogeny (embryonic and larval development) affect the miRNA repertoire of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and if thermal experience has long-term consequences in the miRNA profile.

Results

We characterized miRNA during different developmental stages and in juvenile tissues using next generation sequencing. We identified 389 putative miRNA precursor loci, 120 novel precursor miRNAs, and 281 mature miRNAs. Some miRNAs showed stage- or tissue-enriched expression and miRNAs, such as the miR-17 ~ 92 cluster, myomiRs (miR-206), neuromiRs (miR-9, miR-124), miR-130b, and miR-430 showed differential expression in different temperature regimes. Long-term effect of embryonic incubation temperature was revealed on expression of some miRNAs in juvenile pituitary (miR-449), gonad (miR-27c, miR-30c, and miR-200a), and liver (let-7 h, miR-7a, miR-22, miR-34c, miR-132a, miR-192, miR-221, miR-451, miR-2188, and miR-7550), but not in brain. Some of differentially expressed miRNAs in the liver were confirmed using LNA-based rt-qPCR. The effect of temperature on methylation status of selected miRNA promoter regions was mostly inconclusive.

Conclusions

Temperature elevation by several degrees during embryonic and larval developmental stages significantly alters the miRNA profile, both short-term and long-term. Our results suggest that a further rise in seas temperature might affect life history of Atlantic cod.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-015-1503-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3 1/2 decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish.

Spatio-temporal variability of the North Sea cod recruitment in relation to temperature and zooplankton

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.

Historical DNA reveals the demographic history of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in medieval and early modern Iceland

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) vertebrae from archaeological sites were used to study the history of the Icelandic Atlantic cod population in the time period of 1500-1990. Specifically, we used coalescence modelling to estimate population size and fluctuations from the sequence diversity at the cytochrome b (cytb) and Pantophysin I (PanI) loci. The models are consistent with an expanding population during the warm medieval period, large historical effective population size (NE), a marked bottleneck event at 1400-1500 and a decrease in NE in early modern times. The model results are corroborated by the reduction of haplotype and nucleotide variation over time and pairwise population distance as a significant portion of nucleotide variation partitioned across the 1550 time mark. The mean age of the historical fished stock is high in medieval times with a truncation in age in early modern times. The population size crash coincides with a period of known cooling in the North Atlantic, and we conclude that the collapse may be related to climate or climate-induced ecosystem change.

Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations.

Exploring neutral and adaptive processes in expanding populations of gilthead sea bream, Sparus aurata L., in the North-East Atlantic

Recent studies in empirical population genetics have highlighted the importance of taking into account both neutral and adaptive genetic variation in characterizing microevolutionary dynamics. Here, we explore the genetic population structure and the footprints of selection in four populations of the warm-temperate coastal fish, the gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata), whose recent northward expansion has been linked to climate change. Samples were collected at four Atlantic locations, including Spain, Portugal, France and the South of Ireland, and genetically assayed using a suite of species-specific markers, including 15 putatively neutral microsatellites and 23 expressed sequence tag-linked markers, as well as a portion of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region. Two of the putatively neutral markers, Bld-10 and Ad-10, bore signatures of strong directional selection, particularly in the newly established Irish population, although the potential 'surfing effect' of rare alleles at the edge of the expansion front was also considered. Analyses after the removal of these loci suggest low but significant population structure likely affected by some degree of gene flow counteracting random genetic drift. No signal of historic divergence was detected at mtDNA. BLAST searches conducted with all 38 markers used failed to identify specific genomic regions associated to adaptive functions. However, the availability of genomic resources for this commercially valuable species is rapidly increasing, bringing us closer to the understanding of the interplay between selective and neutral evolutionary forces, shaping population divergence of an expanding species in a heterogeneous milieu.

Does increasing mortality change the response of fish populations to environmental fluctuations?

Fluctuations of fish populations abundances are shaped by the interplay between population dynamics and the stochastic forcing of the environment. Age-structured populations behave as a filter of the environment. This filter is characterised by the species-specific life cycle and life-history traits. An increased mortality of mature individuals alters these characteristics and may therefore induce changes in the variability of populations. The response of a generic age-structured model was analysed to investigate the expected changes in the fluctuations of fish populations in response to decreased adult survival. These expectations were then tested on an extensive dataset. In accordance with theory, the analyses revealed that decreased adult survival and mean age of spawners were linked to an increase in the relative importance of short-term fluctuations. It suggests that intensive exploitation can lead to a change in the variability of fish populations, an issue of central interest from both conservation and management perspectives.

Exceptional aerobic scope and cardiovascular performance of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) may underlie resilience in a warming climate

Little is known of the physiological mechanisms underlying the effects of climate change on animals, yet it is clear that some species appear more resilient than others. As pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in British Columbia, Canada, have flourished in the current era of climate warming in contrast to other Pacific salmonids in the same watershed, this study investigated whether the continuing success of pink salmon may be linked with exceptional cardiorespiratory adaptations and thermal tolerance of adult fish during their spawning migration. Sex-specific differences existed in minimum and maximum oxygen consumption rates ( and , respectively) across the temperature range of 8 to 28°C, reflected in a higher aerobic scope () for males. Nevertheless, the aerobic scope of both sexes was optimal at 21°C (Topt) and was elevated across the entire temperature range in comparison with other Pacific salmonids. As Topt for aerobic scope of this pink salmon population is higher than in other Pacific salmonids, and historic river temperature data reveal that this population rarely encounters temperatures exceeding Topt, these findings offer a physiological explanation for the continuing success of this species throughout the current climate-warming period. Despite this, declining cardiac output was evident above 17°C, and maximum attainable swimming speed was impaired above ∼23°C, suggesting negative implications under prolonged thermal exposure. While forecasted summer river temperatures over the next century are likely to negatively impact all Pacific salmonids, we suggest that the cardiorespiratory capacity of pink salmon may confer a selective advantage over other species.

Biomarkers in natural fish populations indicate adverse biological effects of offshore oil production

Background

Despite the growing awareness of the necessity of a sustainable development, the global economy continues to depend largely on the consumption of non-renewable energy resources. One such energy resource is fossil oil extracted from the seabed at offshore oil platforms. This type of oil production causes continuous environmental pollution from drilling waste, discharge of large amounts of produced water, and accidental spills.

Methods and principal findings

Samples from natural populations of haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in two North Sea areas with extensive oil production were investigated. Exposure to and uptake of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were demonstrated, and biomarker analyses revealed adverse biological effects, including induction of biotransformation enzymes, oxidative stress, altered fatty acid composition, and genotoxicity. Genotoxicity was reflected by a hepatic DNA adduct pattern typical for exposure to a mixture of PAHs. Control material was collected from a North Sea area without oil production and from remote Icelandic waters. The difference between the two control areas indicates significant background pollution in the North Sea.

Conclusion

It is most remarkable to obtain biomarker responses in natural fish populations in the open sea that are similar to the biomarker responses in fish from highly polluted areas close to a point source. Risk assessment of various threats to the marine fish populations in the North Sea, such as overfishing, global warming, and eutrophication, should also take into account the ecologically relevant impact of offshore oil production.

Actually achieving marine sustainability demands a radical re-think in approach, not 'more of the same'

The UK is committed to meeting a series of 'high-level marine objectives' which are required to satisfy national obligations and to meet international commitments for the marine environment. There are more than 16 such international high-level policy driven obligations and commitments, together with more than 18 European and more than 12 of national origin. In the UK, there is an assumption that the current and planned monitoring will provide evidence to demonstrate achievement against these high-level objectives.

Spawning stock and recruitment in North Sea cod shaped by food and climate

In order to provide better fisheries management and conservation decisions, there is a need to discern the underlying relationship between the spawning stock and recruitment of marine fishes, a relationship which is influenced by the environmental conditions. Here, we demonstrate how the environmental conditions (temperature and the food availability for fish larvae) influence the stock–recruitment relationship and indeed what kind of stock–recruitment relationship we might see under different environmental conditions. Using unique zooplankton data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, we find that food availability (i.e. zooplankton) in essence determines which model applies for the once large North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Further, we show that recruitment is strengthened during cold years and weakened during warm years. Our combined model explained 45 per cent of the total variance in cod recruitment, while the traditional Ricker and Beverton–Holt models only explained about 10 per cent. Specifically, our approach predicts that a full recovery of the North Sea cod stock might not be expected until the environment becomes more favourable.

Genomic signatures of local directional selection in a high gene flow marine organism; the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

BACKGROUND

Marine fishes have been shown to display low levels of genetic structuring and associated high levels of gene flow, suggesting shallow evolutionary trajectories and, possibly, limited or lacking adaptive divergence among local populations. We investigated variation in 98 gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for evidence of selection in local populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) across the species distribution.

RESULTS

Our global genome scan analysis identified eight outlier gene loci with very high statistical support, likely to be subject to directional selection in local demes, or closely linked to loci under selection. Likewise, on a regional south/north transect of central and eastern Atlantic populations, seven loci displayed strongly elevated levels of genetic differentiation. Selection patterns among populations appeared to be relatively widespread and complex, i.e. outlier loci were generally not only associated with one of a few divergent local populations. Even on a limited geographical scale between the proximate North Sea and Baltic Sea populations four loci displayed evidence of adaptive evolution. Temporal genome scan analysis applied to DNA from archived otoliths from a Faeroese population demonstrated stability of the intra-population variation over 24 years. An exploratory landscape genetic analysis was used to elucidate potential effects of the most likely environmental factors responsible for the signatures of local adaptation. We found that genetic variation at several of the outlier loci was better correlated with temperature and/or salinity conditions at spawning grounds at spawning time than with geographic distance per se.

CONCLUSION

These findings illustrate that adaptive population divergence may indeed be prevalent despite seemingly high levels of gene flow, as found in most marine fishes. Thus, results have important implications for our understanding of the interplay of evolutionary forces in general, and for the conservation of marine biodiversity under rapidly increasing evolutionary pressure from climate and fisheries induced changes in local environments.

Haemoglobin polymorphisms affect the oxygen-binding properties in Atlantic cod populations

A major challenge in evolutionary biology is to identify the genes underlying adaptation. The oxygen-transporting haemoglobins directly link external conditions with metabolic needs and therefore represent a unique system for studying environmental effects on molecular evolution. We have discovered two haemoglobin polymorphisms in Atlantic cod populations inhabiting varying temperature and oxygen regimes in the North Atlantic. Three-dimensional modelling of the tetrameric haemoglobin structure demonstrated that the two amino acid replacements Met55beta1Val and Lys62beta1Ala are located at crucial positions of the alpha1beta1 subunit interface and haem pocket, respectively. The replacements are proposed to affect the oxygen-binding properties by modifying the haemoglobin quaternary structure and electrostatic feature. Intriguingly, the same molecular mechanism for facilitating oxygen binding is found in avian species adapted to high altitudes, illustrating convergent evolution in water- and air-breathing vertebrates to reduction in environmental oxygen availability. Cod populations inhabiting the cold Arctic waters and the low-oxygen Baltic Sea seem well adapted to these conditions by possessing the high oxygen affinity Val55-Ala62 haplotype, while the temperature-insensitive Met55-Lys62 haplotype predominates in the southern populations. The distinct distributions of the functionally different haemoglobin variants indicate that the present biogeography of this ecologically and economically important species might be seriously affected by global warming.

Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.

Linking environmental variability and fish performance: integration through the concept of scope for activity

Investigating the biological mechanisms linking environmental variability to fish production systems requires the disentangling of the interactions between habitat, environmental adaptation and fitness. Since the number of environmental variables and regulatory processes is large, straightening out the environmental influences on fish performance is intractable unless the mechanistic analysis of the 'fish-milieu' system is preceded by an understanding of the properties of that system. While revisiting the key points in our currently poorly integrated understanding of fish ecophysiology, we have highlighted the explanatory potential contained within Fry's (Fry 1947 Univ. Toronto Stud. Biol. Ser. 55, 1-62) concept of metabolic scope and categorization of environmental factors. These two notions constitute a pair of powerful tools for conducting an external (at the emerging property level) analysis of the environmental influences on fish, as well as an internal (mechanistic) examination of the behavioural, morphological and physiological processes involved. Using examples from our own and others work, we have tried to demonstrate that Fry's framework represents a valuable conceptual basis leading to a broad range of testable ecophysiological hypotheses.

Assessing the impact of a downscaled climate change simulation on the fish fauna in an Inner-Alpine River

This study assesses the impact of a changing climate on fish fauna by comparing the past mean state of fish assemblage to a possible future mean state. It is based on (1) local scale observations along an Inner-Alpine river called Mur, (2) an IPCC emission scenario (IS92a), implemented by atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3, and (3) a model-chain that links climate research to hydrobiology. The Mur River is still in a near-natural condition and water temperature in summer is the most important aquatic ecological constraint for fish distribution. The methodological strategy is (1) to use downscaled air temperature and precipitation scenarios for the first half of the twenty-first century, (2) to establish a model that simulates water temperature by means of air temperature and flow rate in order to generate water temperature scenarios, and (3) to evaluate the impact on fish communities using an ecological model that is driven by water temperature. This methodology links the response of fish fauna to an IPCC emission scenario and is to our knowledge an unprecedented approach. The downscaled IS92a scenarios show increased mean air temperatures during the whole year and increased precipitation totals during summer, but reduced totals for the rest of the annual cycle. These changes result in scenarios of increased water temperatures, an altered annual cycle of flow rate, and, in turn, a 70 m displacement in elevation of fish communities towards the river's head. This would enhance stress on species that rely on low water temperatures and coerce cyprinid species into advancing against retreating salmonids. Hyporhithral river sectors would turn into epipotamal sectors. Grayling (Thymallus thymallus) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), presently characteristic for the Mur River, would be superceded by other species. Native brown trout (Salmo trutta), already now under pressure of competition, may be at risk of losing its habitat in favour of invaders like the exotic rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), which are better adapted to higher water temperatures. Projected changes in fish communities suggest an adverse influence on salmonid sport fishing and a loss in its high economic value.

Experimental simulations about the effects of overexploitation and habitat fragmentation on populations facing environmental warming

Populations of many species are dramatically declining worldwide, but the causal mechanism remains debated among different human-related threats. Coping with this uncertainty is critical to several issues about the conservation and future of biodiversity, but remains challenging due to difficulties associated with the experimental manipulation and/or isolation of the effects of such threats under field conditions. Using controlled microcosm populations, we quantified the individual and combined effects of environmental warming, overexploitation and habitat fragmentation on population persistence. Individually, each of these threats produced similar and significant population declines, which were accelerated to different degrees depending upon particular interactions. The interaction between habitat fragmentation and harvesting generated an additive decline in population size. However, both of these threats reduced population resistance causing synergistic declines in populations also facing environmental warming. Declines in population size were up to 50 times faster when all threats acted together. These results indicate that species may be facing risks of extinction higher than those anticipated from single threat analyses and suggest that all threats should be mitigated simultaneously, if current biodiversity declines are to be reversed.

Warm water occupancy by North Sea cod

The North Sea has warmed in recent years and there is an ongoing debate into how this is affecting the distribution of fishes and other marine organisms. Of particular interest is the commercially important Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.), which has declined sharply in abundance in the North Sea over the past 20 years. Observations of the temperature experienced by 129 individual cod throughout the North Sea were made during a large-scale electronic tagging programme conducted between 1999 and 2005. We asked whether individual cod fully occupied the thermal habitat available to them. To this end, we compared the temperature experience of cod with independently measured contemporaneous sea-bottom temperature data. The majority of cod experienced a warmer fraction of the sea than was potentially available to them. By summer, most of the individuals in the south experienced temperatures considered superoptimal for growth. Cooler waters were within the reach of the cod and a small number of individuals migrated to areas that allowed them to experience lower temperatures, indicating that the cod had the capacity to find cooler water. Most did not, however, suggesting that the changing thermal regime of the North Sea is not yet causing adult cod to move to cooler waters.

Prey Selection, Vertical Migrations and the Impacts of Harvesting Upon the Population Dynamics of a Predator-Prey System

A model is developed to describe the interaction between a predator and two prey types located in different regions. Conditions for stability and persistence are analysed. The effects of harvesting the predators are investigated by making the predator mortality rate habitat dependent. Results demonstrate that for any given set of parameter values there is a value of the intrinsic preference of the predator for each prey type at which the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation. Above this critical value the system evolves towards a stable equilibrium, whereas below it, stable limit cycles arise by Hopf bifurcations. Simulations demonstrate that the presence of demographic stochasticity may destabilise oscillatory populations, thereby causing population extinctions. An application of the model to the foraging behaviour of North Sea cod is described. It is shown that if the preferred prey is more productive, it is likely that the equilibrium will be stable, whereas if the less preferred prey is more productive, populations are likely to display cycles and in the stochastic case become extinct. As cod fishing mortality is increased, the point of bifurcation and region of parameter space for which the system is unstable decreases. An increased understanding of how cod behave may enable fish stocks to be managed more successfully, for example by indicating where marine reserves should be placed.