Ocean circulation off east Antarctica affects ecosystem structure and sea-ice extent

Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica

Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) incubate and rear chicks on landfast sea ice, whose extent, dynamics, and quality are expected to vary substantially due to climate change. Until recently, this species' continent-wide observations were scarce, and knowledge on their distribution and habitat limited. Advances in satellite imagery now allow their observation and characterization of habitats across Antarctica at high resolution. Using circumpolar high-resolution satellite images, unique fast ice metrics, and geographic and biological factors, we identified diverse penguin habitats across the continent, with no significant difference between areas with penguins or not. There is a clear geographic partitioning of colonies with respect to their defining habitat characteristics, indicating possible behavioral plasticity among different metapopulations. This coincides with geographic structures found in previous genetic studies. Given projections of quasi-extinction for this species in 2100, this study provides essential information for conservation measures.

Wind-driven upwelling of iron sustains dense blooms and food webs in the eastern Weddell Gyre

The Southern Ocean is a major sink of anthropogenic CO₂ and an important foraging area for top trophic level consumers. However, iron limitation sets an upper limit to primary productivity. Here we report on a considerably dense late summer phytoplankton bloom spanning 9000 km² in the open ocean of the eastern Weddell Gyre. Over its 2.5 months duration, the bloom accumulated up to 20 g C m^-2 of organic matter, which is unusually high for Southern Ocean open waters. We show that, over 1997-2019, this open ocean bloom was likely driven by anomalies in easterly winds that push sea ice southwards and favor the upwelling of Warm Deep Water enriched in hydrothermal iron and, possibly, other iron sources. This recurring open ocean bloom likely facilitates enhanced carbon export and sustains high standing stocks of Antarctic krill, supporting feeding hot spots for marine birds and baleen whales.

Environmental conditions and marine heatwaves influence blue whale foraging and reproductive effort

Animal behavior is motivated by the fundamental need to feed and reproduce, and these behaviors can be inferred from spatiotemporal variations in biological signals such as vocalizations. Yet, linking foraging and reproductive effort to environmental drivers can be challenging for wide-ranging predator species. Blue whales are acoustically active marine predators that produce two distinct vocalizations: song and D calls. We examined environmental correlates of these vocalizations using continuous recordings from five hydrophones in the South Taranaki Bight region of Aotearoa New Zealand to investigate call behavior relative to ocean conditions and infer life history patterns. D calls were strongly correlated with oceanographic drivers of upwelling in spring and summer, indicating associations with foraging effort. In contrast, song displayed a highly seasonal pattern with peak intensity in fall, which aligned with the timing of conception inferred from whaling records. Finally, during a marine heatwave, reduced foraging (inferred from D calls) was followed by lower reproductive effort (inferred from song intensity).

Biological responses to change in Antarctic sea ice habitats

Sea ice is a key habitat in the high latitude Southern Ocean and is predicted to change in its extent, thickness and duration in coming decades. The sea-ice cover is instrumental in mediating ocean–atmosphere exchanges and provides an important substrate for organisms from microbes and algae to predators. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is reliant on sea ice during key phases of its life cycle, particularly during the larval stages, for food and refuge from their predators, while other small grazers, including copepods and amphipods, either live in the brine channel system or find food and shelter at the ice-water interface and in gaps between rafted ice blocks. Fish, such as the Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarcticum, use platelet ice (loosely-formed frazil crystals) as an essential hatching and nursery ground. In this paper, we apply the framework of the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO) to review current knowledge about relationships between sea ice and associated primary production and secondary consumers, their status and the drivers of sea-ice change in this ocean. We then use qualitative network modelling to explore possible responses of lower trophic level sea-ice biota to different perturbations, including warming air and ocean temperatures, increased storminess and reduced annual sea-ice duration. This modelling shows that pelagic algae, copepods, krill and fish are likely to decrease in response to warming temperatures and reduced sea-ice duration, while salp populations will likely increase under conditions of reduced sea-ice duration and increased number of days of >0°C. Differences in responses to these pressures between the five MEASO sectors were also explored. Greater impacts of environmental pressures on ice-related biota occurring presently were found for the West and East Pacific sectors (notably the Ross Sea and western Antarctic Peninsula), with likely flow-on effects to the wider ecosystem. All sectors are expected to be impacted over coming decades. Finally, we highlight priorities for future sea ice biological research to address knowledge gaps in this field.

Two scales of distribution and biomass of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in the eastern sector of the CCAMLR Division 58.4.2 (55°E to 80°E)

Regular monitoring is an important component of the successful management of pelagic animals of interest to commercial fisheries. Here we provide a biomass estimate for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in the eastern sector of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) Division 58.4.2 (55°E to 80°E; area = 775,732 km2) using data collected during an acoustic-trawl survey carried out in February and March 2021. Using acoustic data collected in day-time and trawl data, areal biomass density was estimated as 8.3 gm-2 giving a total areal krill biomass of 6.48 million tonnes, with a 28.9% coefficient of variation (CV). The inaccessibility of the East Antarctic makes fisheries-independent surveys of Antarctic krill expensive and time consuming, so we also assessed the efficacy of extrapolating smaller surveys to a wider area. During the large-scale survey a smaller scale survey (centre coordinates -66.28°S 63.35°E, area = 4,902 km2) was conducted. We examine how representative krill densities from the small-scale (Mawson box) survey were over a latitudinal range by comparing krill densities from the large-scale survey split into latitudinal bands. We found the small scale survey provided a good representation of the statistical distribution of krill densities within its latitudinal band (KS-test, D = 0.048, p-value = 0.98), as well as mean density (t-test p-value = 0.44), but not outside of the band. We recommend further in situ testing of this approach.

WOS, Steinberg DK, Swadling KM, Tarling GA, Thorpe SE, Veytia D, Ward P, Weldrick CK, Yang G. Status, Change, and Futures of Zooplankton in the Southern Ocean

In the Southern Ocean, several zooplankton taxonomic groups, euphausiids, copepods, salps and pteropods, are notable because of their biomass and abundance and their roles in maintaining food webs and ecosystem structure and function, including the provision of globally important ecosystem services. These groups are consumers of microbes, primary and secondary producers, and are prey for fishes, cephalopods, seabirds, and marine mammals. In providing the link between microbes, primary production, and higher trophic levels these taxa influence energy flows, biological production and biomass, biogeochemical cycles, carbon flux and food web interactions thereby modulating the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Additionally, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and various fish species are harvested by international fisheries. Global and local drivers of change are expected to affect the dynamics of key zooplankton species, which may have potentially profound and wide-ranging implications for Southern Ocean ecosystems and the services they provide. Here we assess the current understanding of the dominant metazoan zooplankton within the Southern Ocean, including Antarctic krill and other key euphausiid, copepod, salp and pteropod species. We provide a systematic overview of observed and potential future responses of these taxa to a changing Southern Ocean and the functional relationships by which drivers may impact them. To support future ecosystem assessments and conservation and management strategies, we also identify priorities for Southern Ocean zooplankton research.

Remote assessment of the fate of phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean sea-ice zone

In the Southern Ocean, large-scale phytoplankton blooms occur in open water and the sea-ice zone (SIZ). These blooms have a range of fates including physical advection, downward carbon export, or grazing. Here, we determine the magnitude, timing and spatial trends of the biogeochemical (export) and ecological (foodwebs) fates of phytoplankton, based on seven BGC-Argo floats spanning three years across the SIZ. We calculate loss terms using the production of chlorophyll-based on nitrate depletion-compared with measured chlorophyll. Export losses are estimated using conspicuous chlorophyll pulses at depth. By subtracting export losses, we calculate grazing-mediated losses. Herbivory accounts for ~90% of the annually-averaged losses (169 mg C m-2 d-1), and phytodetritus POC export comprises ~10%. Furthermore, export and grazing losses each exhibit distinctive seasonality captured by all floats spanning 60°S to 69°S. These similar trends reveal widespread patterns in phytoplankton fate throughout the Southern Ocean SIZ.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change^1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

The importance of Antarctic krill in biogeochemical cycles

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are swarming, oceanic crustaceans, up to two inches long, and best known as prey for whales and penguins - but they have another important role. With their large size, high biomass and daily vertical migrations they transport and transform essential nutrients, stimulate primary productivity and influence the carbon sink. Antarctic krill are also fished by the Southern Ocean's largest fishery. Yet how krill fishing impacts nutrient fertilisation and the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean is poorly understood. Our synthesis shows fishery management should consider the influential biogeochemical role of both adult and larval Antarctic krill.

New insights into prime Southern Ocean forage grounds for thriving Western Australian humpback whales

Humpback whale populations migrate extensively between winter breeding grounds and summer feeding grounds, however known links to remote Antarctic feeding grounds remain limited in many cases. New satellite tracks detail humpback whale migration pathways from Western Australia into the Southern Ocean. These highlight a focal feeding area during austral spring and early summer at the southern Kerguelen plateau, in a western boundary current where a sharp northward turn and retroflection of ocean fronts occurs along the eastern plateau edge. The topographic steering of oceanographic features here likely supports a predictable, productive and persistent forage ground. The spatial distribution of whaling catches and Discovery era mark-recaptures confirms the importance of this region to Western Australian humpback whales since at least historical times. Movement modelling discriminates sex-related behaviours, with females moving faster during both transit and resident periods, which may be a consequence of size or indicate differential energetic requirements. Relatively short and directed migratory pathways overall, together with high-quality, reliable forage resources may provide a partial explanation for the ongoing strong recovery demonstrated by this population. The combination of new oceanographic information and movement data provides enhanced understanding of important biological processes, which are relevant within the context of the current spatial management and conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean.

Review: the energetic value of zooplankton and nekton species of the Southern Ocean

Understanding the energy flux through food webs is important for estimating the capacity of marine ecosystems to support stocks of living resources. The energy density of species involved in trophic energy transfer has been measured in a large number of small studies, scattered over a 40-year publication record. Here, we reviewed energy density records of Southern Ocean zooplankton, nekton and several benthic taxa, including previously unpublished data. Comparing measured taxa, energy densities were highest in myctophid fishes (ranging from 17.1 to 39.3 kJ g^-1 DW), intermediate in crustaceans (7.1 to 25.3 kJ g^-1 DW), squid (16.2 to 24.0 kJ g^-1 DW) and other fish families (14.8 to 29.9 kJ g^-1 DW), and lowest in jelly fish (10.8 to 18.0 kJ g^-1 DW), polychaetes (9.2 to 14.2 kJ g^-1 DW) and chaetognaths (5.0-11.7 kJ g^-1 DW). Data reveals differences in energy density within and between species related to size, age and other life cycle parameters. Important taxa in Antarctic food webs, such as copepods, squid and small euphausiids, remain under-sampled. The variability in energy density of Electrona antarctica was likely regional rather than seasonal, although for many species with limited data it remains difficult to disentangle regional and seasonal variability. Models are provided to estimate energy density more quickly using a species' physical parameters. It will become increasingly important to close knowledge gaps to improve the ability of bioenergetic and food web models to predict changes in the capacity of Antarctic ecosystems to support marine life.

Contrasting behavior between two populations of an ice-obligate predator in East Antarctica

The Austral autumn–winter is a critical period for capital breeders such as Weddell seals that must optimize resource acquisition and storage to provision breeding in the subsequent spring. However, how Weddell seals find food in the winter months remains poorly documented. We equipped adult Weddell seals after their annual molt with satellite‐relayed data loggers at two sites in East Antarctica: Dumont D'Urville (n = 12, DDU) and Davis (n = 20). We used binomial generalized mixed‐effect models to investigate Weddell seals’ behavioral response (i.e., “hunting” vs. “transit”) to physical aspects of their environment (e.g., ice concentration). Weddell seal foraging was concentrated to within 5 km of a breathing hole, and they appear to move between holes as local food is depleted. There were regional differences in behavior so that seals at Davis traveled greater distances (three times more) and spent less time in hunting mode (half the time) than seals at DDU. Despite these differences, hunting dives at both locations were pelagic, concentrated in areas of high ice concentration, and over areas of complex bathymetry. There was also a seasonal change in diving behavior from transiting early in the season to more hunting during winter. Our observations suggest that Weddell seal foraging behavior is plastic and that they respond behaviorally to changes in their environment to maximize food acquisition and storage. Such plasticity is a hallmark of animals that live in very dynamic environments such as the high Antarctic where resources are unpredictable.

Antarctic krill population genomics: apparent panmixia, but genome complexity and large population size muddy the water

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) are an incredibly abundant pelagic crustacean which has a wide, but patchy, distribution in the Southern Ocean. Several studies have examined the potential for population genetic structuring in krill, but DNA-based analyses have focused on a limited number of markers and have covered only part of their circum-Antarctic range. We used mitochondrial DNA and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to investigate genetic differences between krill from five sites, including two from East Antarctica. Our mtDNA results show no discernible genetic structuring between sites separated by thousands of kilometres, which is consistent with previous studies. Using standard RAD-seq methodology, we obtained over a billion sequences from >140 krill, and thousands of variable nucleotides were identified at hundreds of loci. However, downstream analysis found that markers with sufficient coverage were primarily from multicopy genomic regions. Careful examination of these data highlights the complexity of the RAD-seq approach in organisms with very large genomes. To characterize the multicopy markers, we recorded sequence counts from variable nucleotide sites rather than the derived genotypes; we also examined a small number of manually curated genotypes. Although these analyses effectively fingerprinted individuals, and uncovered a minor laboratory batch effect, no population structuring was observed. Overall, our results are consistent with panmixia of krill throughout their distribution. This result may indicate ongoing gene flow. However, krill's enormous population size creates substantial panmictic inertia, so genetic differentiation may not occur on an ecologically relevant timescale even if demographically separate populations exist.

Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover

Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.

Variation of mutual colour ornaments of king penguins in response to winter resource availability

We studied the influence of marine resources during a year of abundance and another of extreme scarcity, on sexually selected ornaments of the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), a seabird with striking coloured ornaments in both sexes. Displaying birds started their breeding cycle with similar mean body mass each year, but both sexes had significantly larger yellow/orange auricular patches in the year of abundant resources. Colours of the auricular patches and breast were more pure in the good year, and both UV and yellow/orange colours of beak spots were brighter. Comparison of the mating process suggested lower levels of choosiness in both sexes during the unfavourable year, perhaps in order to pair more quickly and partly compensate for a marked delay in breeding initiation. Our results suggest that the expression of sexual traits may substantially vary under different environmental conditions, a predication of some models of mate choice and sexual selection.

Breeding short-tailed shearwaters buffer local environmental variability in south-eastern Australia by foraging in Antarctic waters

BACKGROUND

Establishing patterns of movements of free-ranging animals in marine ecosystems is crucial for a better understanding of their feeding ecology, life history traits and conservation. As central place foragers, the habitat use of nesting seabirds is heavily influenced by the resources available within their foraging range. We tested the prediction that during years with lower resource availability, short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris) provisioning chicks should increase their foraging effort, by extending their foraging range and/or duration, both when foraging in neritic (short trips) and distant oceanic waters (long trips). Using both GPS and geolocation data-loggers, at-sea movements and habitat use were investigated over three breeding seasons (2012-14) at two colonies in southeastern Australia.

RESULTS

Most individuals performed daily short foraging trips over the study period and inter-annual variations observed in foraging parameters where mainly due to few individuals from Griffith Island, performing 2-day trips in 2014. When performing long foraging trips, this study showed that individuals from both colonies exploited similar zones in the Southern Ocean. The results of this study suggest that individuals could increase their foraging range while exploiting distant feeding zones, which could indicate that short-tailed shearwaters forage in Antarctic waters not only to maintain their body condition but may also do so to buffer against local environmental stochasticity. Lower breeding performances were associated with longer foraging trips to distant oceanic waters in 2013 and 2014 indicating they could mediate reductions in food availability around the breeding colonies by extending their foraging range in the Southern Ocean.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the importance of foraging flexibility as a fundamental aspect of life history in coastal/pelagic marine central place foragers living in highly variable environments and how these foraging strategies are use to buffer this variability.

Investigating the effect of recruitment variability on length-based recruitment indices for antarctic krill using an individual-based population dynamics model

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; herein krill) is monitored as part of an on-going fisheries observer program that collects length-frequency data. A krill feedback management programme is currently being developed, and as part of this development, the utility of data-derived indices describing population level processes is being assessed. To date, however, little work has been carried out on the selection of optimum recruitment indices and it has not been possible to assess the performance of length-based recruitment indices across a range of recruitment variability. Neither has there been an assessment of uncertainty in the relationship between an index and the actual level of recruitment. Thus, until now, it has not been possible to take into account recruitment index uncertainty in krill stock management or when investigating relationships between recruitment and environmental drivers. Using length-frequency samples from a simulated population – where recruitment is known – the performance of six potential length-based recruitment indices is assessed, by exploring the index-to-recruitment relationship under increasing levels of recruitment variability (from ±10% to ±100% around a mean annual recruitment). The annual minimum of the proportion of individuals smaller than 40 mm (F40 min, %) was selected because it had the most robust index-to-recruitment relationship across differing levels of recruitment variability. The relationship was curvilinear and best described by a power law. Model uncertainty was described using the 95% prediction intervals, which were used to calculate coverage probabilities and assess model performance. Despite being the optimum recruitment index, the performance of F40 min degraded under high (>50%) recruitment variability. Due to the persistence of cohorts in the population over several years, the inclusion of F40 min values from preceding years in the relationship used to estimate recruitment in a given year improved its accuracy (mean bias reduction of 8.3% when including three F40 min values under a recruitment variability of 60%).

A hierarchical classification of benthic biodiversity and assessment of protected areas in the Southern Ocean

An international effort is underway to establish a representative system of marine protected areas (MPAs) in the Southern Ocean to help provide for the long-term conservation of marine biodiversity in the region. Important to this undertaking is knowledge of the distribution of benthic assemblages. Here, our aim is to identify the areas where benthic marine assemblages are likely to differ from each other in the Southern Ocean including near-shore Antarctica. We achieve this by using a hierarchical spatial classification of ecoregions, bathomes and environmental types. Ecoregions are defined according to available data on biogeographic patterns and environmental drivers on dispersal. Bathomes are identified according to depth strata defined by species distributions. Environmental types are uniquely classified according to the geomorphic features found within the bathomes in each ecoregion. We identified 23 ecoregions and nine bathomes. From a set of 28 types of geomorphic features of the seabed, 562 unique environmental types were classified for the Southern Ocean. We applied the environmental types as surrogates of different assemblages of biodiversity to assess the representativeness of existing MPAs. We found that 12 ecoregions are not represented in MPAs and that no ecoregion has their full range of environmental types represented in MPAs. Current MPA planning processes, if implemented, will substantially increase the representation of environmental types particularly within 8 ecoregions. To meet internationally agreed conservation goals, additional MPAs will be needed. To assist with this process, we identified 107 spatially restricted environmental types, which should be considered for inclusion in future MPAs. Detailed supplementary data including a spatial dataset are provided.

Counting whales in a challenging, changing environment

Estimating abundance of Antarctic minke whales is central to the International Whaling Commission's conservation and management work and understanding impacts of climate change on polar marine ecosystems. Detecting abundance trends is problematic, in part because minke whales are frequently sighted within Antarctic sea ice where navigational safety concerns prevent ships from surveying. Using icebreaker-supported helicopters, we conducted aerial surveys across a gradient of ice conditions to estimate minke whale density in the Weddell Sea. The surveys revealed substantial numbers of whales inside the sea ice. The Antarctic summer sea ice is undergoing rapid regional change in annual extent, distribution, and length of ice-covered season. These trends, along with substantial interannual variability in ice conditions, affect the proportion of whales available to be counted by traditional shipboard surveys. The strong association between whales and the dynamic, changing sea ice requires reexamination of the power to detect trends in whale abundance or predict ecosystem responses to climate change.

Spatially explicit estimates of prey consumption reveal a new krill predator in the Southern Ocean

Development in foraging behaviour and dietary intake of many vertebrates are age-structured. Differences in feeding ecology may correlate with ontogenetic shifts in dispersal patterns, and therefore affect foraging habitat and resource utilization. Such life-history traits have important implications in interpreting tropho-dynamic linkages. Stable isotope ratios in the whiskers of sub-yearling southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina; n = 12) were used, in conjunction with satellite telemetry and environmental data, to examine their foraging habitat and diet during their first foraging migration. The trophic position of seals from Macquarie Island (54°30′S, 158°57′E) was estimated using stable carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) ratios along the length of the whisker, which provided a temporal record of prey intake. Satellite-relayed data loggers provided details on seal movement patterns, which were related to isotopic concentrations along the whisker. Animals fed in waters south of the Polar Front (>60°S) or within Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) Statistical Subareas 88.1 and 88.2, as indicated by both their depleted δ¹³C (<−20‰) values, and tracking data. They predominantly exploited varying proportions of mesopelagic fish and squid, and crustaceans, such as euphausiids, which have not been reported as a prey item for this species. Comparison of isotopic data between sub-yearlings, and 1, 2 and 3 yr olds indicated that sub-yearlings, limited by their size, dive capabilities and prey capture skills to feeding higher in the water column, fed at a lower trophic level than older seals. This is consistent with the consumption of euphausiids and most probably, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), which constitute an abundant, easily accessible source of prey in water masses used by this age class of seals. Isotopic assessment and concurrent tracking of seals are successfully used here to identify ontogenetic shifts in broad-scale foraging habitat use and diet preferences in a highly migratory predator.

Penguin tissue as a proxy for relative krill abundance in East Antarctica during the Holocene

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key component of the Southern Ocean food web. It supports a large number of upper trophic-level predators, and is also a major fishery resource. Understanding changes in krill abundance has long been a priority for research and conservation in the Southern Ocean. In this study, we performed stable isotope analyses on ancient Adélie penguin tissues and inferred relative krill abundance during the Holocene epoch from paleodiets of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae), using inverse of δ¹⁵N (ratio of ¹⁵N/¹⁴N) value as a proxy. We find that variations in krill abundance during the Holocene are in accord with episodes of regional climate changes, showing greater krill abundance in cold periods. Moreover, the low δ¹⁵N values found in modern Adélie penguins indicate relatively high krill availability, which supports the hypothesis of krill surplus in modern ages due to recent hunt for krill-eating seals and whales by humans.

Long-term trends of nutrients and apparent oxygen utilization South of the polar front in Southern Ocean intermediate water from 1965 to 2008

The variation of nutrients over decadal timescales south of the polar front in the Southern Ocean is poorly known because of a lack of continuous observational data in this area. We examined data from long-term continuous hydrographic monitoring of 43 years (1965–2008) in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, via the resupply of Antarctic stations under the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition and Australian Antarctic Research Expedition. We found significant increasing trends in phosphate and nitrate, and a decreasing trend in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) in intermediate water (neutral density = 27.8–28.1 kgm⁻³) south of the polar front. The rates of phosphate and nitrate increase are 0.004 µmol yr⁻¹ and 0.02 µmol yr⁻¹, respectively. The rate of decline of AOU was 0.32 µmol yr⁻¹. One reason for this phosphate and nitrate increase and AOU decline is reduced horizontal advection of North Atlantic Deep Water, which is characterized by low nutrients and high AOU. The relationship between climate change and nutrient variability remains obscure, emphasizing the importance of long-term monitoring.

Change and variability in East antarctic sea ice seasonality, 1979/80-2009/10

Recent analyses have shown that significant changes have occurred in patterns of sea ice seasonality in West Antarctica since 1979, with wide-ranging climatic, biological and biogeochemical consequences. Here, we provide the first detailed report on long-term change and variability in annual timings of sea ice advance, retreat and resultant ice season duration in East Antarctica. These were calculated from satellite-derived ice concentration data for the period 1979/80 to 2009/10. The pattern of change in sea ice seasonality off East Antarctica comprises mixed signals on regional to local scales, with pockets of strongly positive and negative trends occurring in near juxtaposition in certain regions e.g., Prydz Bay. This pattern strongly reflects change and variability in different elements of the marine "icescape", including fast ice, polynyas and the marginal ice zone. A trend towards shorter sea-ice duration (of 1 to 3 days per annum) occurs in fairly isolated pockets in the outer pack from∼95-110°E, and in various near-coastal areas that include an area of particularly strong and persistent change near Australia's Davis Station and between the Amery and West Ice Shelves. These areas are largely associated with coastal polynyas that are important as sites of enhanced sea ice production/melt. Areas of positive trend in ice season duration are more extensive, and include an extensive zone from 160-170°E (i.e., the western Ross Sea sector) and the near-coastal zone between 40-100°E. The East Antarctic pattern is considerably more complex than the well-documented trends in West Antarctica e.g., in the Antarctic Peninsula-Bellingshausen Sea and western Ross Sea sectors.

Long-term breeding phenology shift in royal penguins

The Earth's climate is undergoing rapid warming, unprecedented in recent times, which is driving shifts in the distribution and phenology of many plants and animals. Quantifying changes in breeding phenology is important for understanding how populations respond to these changes. While data on shifts in phenology are common for Northern Hemisphere species (especially birds), there is a dearth of evidence from the Southern Hemisphere, and even fewer data available from the marine environment. Surface air temperatures at Macquarie Island have increased by 0.62°C during the 30-year study period (0.21°C decade⁻¹) and royal penguins (Eudyptes schlegeli) commenced egg laying on average three days earlier in the 1990s than during the 1960s. This contrasts with other studies of Southern Ocean seabirds; five of nine species are now breeding on average 2.1 days later than during the 1950s. Despite the different direction of these trends, they can be explained by a single underlying mechanism: resource availability. There was a negative relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and median laying date of royal penguins, such that low-productivity (low SAM) years delayed laying date. This accords with the observations of other seabird species from the Antarctic, where later laying dates were associated with lower sea ice and lower spring productivity. The unifying factor underpinning phenological trends in eastern Antarctica is therefore resource availability; as food becomes scarcer, birds breed later. These changes are not uniform across the region, however, with resource increases in the subantarctic and decreases in eastern Antarctica.

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.

Relative changes in krill abundance inferred from Antarctic fur seal

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba is a predominant species in the Southern Ocean, it is very sensitive to climate change, and it supports large stocks of fishes, seabirds, seals and whales in Antarctic marine ecosystems. Modern krill stocks have been estimated directly by net hauls and acoustic surveys; the historical krill density especially the long-term one in the Southern Ocean, however, is unknown. Here we inferred the relative krill population changes along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the 20th century from the trophic level change of Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella using stable carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopes of archival seal hairs. Since Antarctic fur seals feed preferentially on krill, the variation of δ¹⁵N in seal hair indicates a change in the proportion of krill in the seal's diets and thus the krill availability in local seawater. For the past century, enriching fur seal δ¹⁵N values indicated decreasing krill availability. This is agreement with direct observation for the past ∼30 years and suggests that the recently documented decline in krill populations began in the early parts of the 20th century. This novel method makes it possible to infer past krill population changes from ancient tissues of krill predators.

Adélie penguin survival: age structure, temporal variability and environmental influences

The driving factors of survival, a key demographic process, have been particularly challenging to study, especially for winter migratory species such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). While winter environmental conditions clearly influence Antarctic seabird survival, it has been unclear to which environmental features they are most likely to respond. Here, we examine the influence of environmental fluctuations, broad climatic conditions and the success of the breeding season prior to winter on annual survival of an Adélie penguin population using mark-recapture models based on penguin tag and resight data over a 16-year period. This analysis required an extension to the basic Cormack-Jolly-Seber model by incorporating age structure in recapture and survival sub-models. By including model covariates, we show that survival of older penguins is primarily related to the amount and concentration of ice present in their winter foraging grounds. In contrast, fledgling and yearling survival depended on other factors in addition to the physical marine environment and outcomes of the previous breeding season, but we were unable to determine what these were. The relationship between sea-ice and survival differed with penguin age: extensive ice during the return journey to breeding colonies was detrimental to survival for the younger penguins, whereas either too little or too much ice (between 15 and 80% cover) in the winter foraging grounds was detrimental for adults. Our results demonstrate that predictions of Adélie penguin survival can be improved by taking into account penguin age, prior breeding conditions and environmental features.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models.