Carbon sink for a century

Mitigation of the U.S. agrifood sector's contribution to human and planetary health: a case study

The relationship of the United States (U.S.) agrifood sector to climate change is bidirectional; cattle production for beef consumption generates methane and nitrous oxide, both of which are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). These gases contribute to global warming which in turn increase the frequency and strength of adverse catastrophic events, which compromise the food supply. Increased GHGs also affect crop yields and the micronutrient content of crops, which adversely affect the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Because the U.S. is a major contributor to global warming, we have a special responsibility to reduce our contribution to the generation of GHGs. The dilemma is that beef is a highly nutritious and desirable food, with excess consumption in the U.S. and under consumption in other parts of the world, but a desirable source of nutrients in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Reductions in fossil fuels have been a major focus of concern, and the agrifood system has been largely ignored. Policy changes to reduce beef consumption have been resisted at the highest levels of government. Furthermore, shifts to more plant-based diets have been contentious. Successful reductions in beef consumption will require individual, institutional, municipal, and state initiatives. Building the political will for change will require a compelling communication campaign that emphasizes the unsustainable contribution of beef consumption to climate change and land and water use.

A statistical modeling approach based on the small-scale field trial and meteorological data for preliminary prediction of the impact of low temperature on Eucalyptus globulus trees

Eucalyptus trees are important for industrial forestry plantations because of their high potential for biomass production, but their susceptibility to damage at low temperatures restricts their plantation areas. In this study, a 6-year field trial of Eucalyptus globulus was conducted in Tsukuba, Japan, which is the northernmost reach of Eucalyptus plantations, and leaf damage was quantitatively monitored over four of six winters. Leaf photosynthetic quantum yield (QY) levels, an indicator of cold stress-induced damage, fluctuated synchronously with temperature in the winters. We performed a maximum likelihood estimation of the regression model explaining leaf QY using training data subsets for the first 3 years. The resulting model explained QY by the number of days when the daily maximum temperature was below 9.5 °C over approximately the last 7 weeks as an explanatory variable. The correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination of prediction by the model between the predicted and observed values were 0.84 and 0.70, respectively. The model was then used to perform two kinds of simulations. Geographical simulations of potential Eucalyptus plantation areas using global meteorological data from more than 5,000 locations around the world successfully predicted an area that generally agreed with the global Eucalyptus plantation distribution reported previously. Another simulation based on meteorological data of the past 70 years suggested that global warming will increase the potential E. globulus plantation area in Japan approximately 1.5-fold over the next 70 years. These results suggest that the model developed herein would be applicable to preliminary predictions of E. globulus cold damage in the field.

Bamboo construction materials: Carbon storage and potential to reduce associated CO2 emissions

The construction industry is one of the largest contributors of CO₂ emissions. To achieve the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, China needs to develop carbon reduction pathways for the construction industry. Bamboo is believed to be one of the most appropriate candidates for afforestation to reduce CO₂ concentration and alleviate the effects of climate change. It is also an ideal building material with high tensile and compressive strengths. However, the carbon emissions and storage of bamboo building materials have not been well understood. This study aims to quantify the CO₂ emissions and carbon storage of bamboo building materials and to analyse the potential to reduce these carbon emissions. Results show that the planting phase contributes the largest amount of carbon uptake whilst the production phase contributes the largest amount of carbon emissions. 'Carbonisation' is found to be the production process with the highest carbon emissions, followed by 'antimould, anticorrosion and drying treatment' and 'glue application'. Three strategies that are useful in reducing carbon emissions are proposed and validated. After the implementation of the proposed strategies, the average and median amount of carbon emissions changed from 1291.63 and 1290.75 kg to 1088.36 and 1090.29 kg. Taking all phases into account, one cubic meter of bamboo assembled components can reduce 249.92 kg CO₂ from the atmosphere. Compared to dimensioned lumber, engineered lumber, cement, steel, timber, hempcrete, bamboo building materials have the highest CO₂ emissions and carbon storage. The carbon storage of bamboo assembled components per tonne is around 140 kg more than that of timber per tonne. This study is expected to assist not only researchers in understanding the carbon reduction potential of bamboo building materials but also practitioners in promoting bamboo building-based carbon reduction pathways.

Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

The existence of a pan-tropical forest carbon sink remains uncertain due to the lack of data from Asia. Here, using direct on-the-ground observations, the authors confirm remaining intact forests in Borneo have provided a long-term carbon sink, but carbon net gains are vulnerable to drought and edge effects.

Blue carbon in human-dominated estuarine and shallow coastal systems

Estuarine and shallow coastal systems (ESCS) are recognized as not only significant organic carbon reservoirs but also emitters of CO2 to the atmosphere through air-sea CO2 gas exchange, thus posing a dilemma on ESCS's role in climate change mitigation measures. However, some studies have shown that coastal waters take up atmospheric CO2 (Catm), although the magnitude and determinants remain unclear. We argue that the phenomenon of net uptake of Catm by ESCS is not unusual under a given set of terrestrial inputs and geophysical conditions. We assessed the key properties of systems that show the net Catm uptake and found that they are often characteristic of human-dominated systems: (1) input of high terrestrial nutrients, (2) input of treated wastewater in which labile carbon is highly removed, and (3) presence of hypoxia. We propose that human-dominated ESCS are worthy of investigation as a contributor to climate change mitigation.

Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure

Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1 ) yr(-1) ) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure.

Rate of belowground carbon allocation differs with successional habit of two afromontane trees

BACKGROUND

Anthropogenic disturbance of old-growth tropical forests increases the abundance of early successional tree species at the cost of late successional ones. Quantifying differences in terms of carbon allocation and the proportion of recently fixed carbon in soil CO(2) efflux is crucial for addressing the carbon footprint of creeping degradation.

METHODOLOGY

We compared the carbon allocation pattern of the late successional gymnosperm Podocarpus falcatus (Thunb.) Mirb. and the early successional (gap filling) angiosperm Croton macrostachyus Hochst. es Del. in an Ethiopian Afromontane forest by whole tree (13)CO(2) pulse labeling. Over a one-year period we monitored the temporal resolution of the label in the foliage, the phloem sap, the arbuscular mycorrhiza, and in soil-derived CO(2). Further, we quantified the overall losses of assimilated (13)C with soil CO(2) efflux.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

(13)C in leaves of C. macrostachyus declined more rapidly with a larger size of a fast pool (64% vs. 50% of the assimilated carbon), having a shorter mean residence time (14 h vs. 55 h) as in leaves of P. falcatus. Phloem sap velocity was about 4 times higher for C. macrostachyus. Likewise, the label appeared earlier in the arbuscular mycorrhiza of C. macrostachyus and in the soil CO(2) efflux as in case of P. falcatus (24 h vs. 72 h). Within one year soil CO(2) efflux amounted to a loss of 32% of assimilated carbon for the gap filling tree and to 15% for the late successional one.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed clear differences in carbon allocation patterns between tree species, although we caution that this experiment was unreplicated. A shift in tree species composition of tropical montane forests (e.g., by degradation) accelerates carbon allocation belowground and increases respiratory carbon losses by the autotrophic community. If ongoing disturbance keeps early successional species in dominance, the larger allocation to fast cycling compartments may deplete soil organic carbon in the long run.

Incorrect representation of uncertainty in the modeling of growth leads to biased estimates of future biomass

Biomass is a fundamental measure in the natural sciences, and numerous models have been developed to forecast timber and fishery yields, forest carbon content, and other environmental services that depend on biomass estimates. We derive general results that reveal how dynamic models that simulate growth as an increase in a linear measure of size (e.g., diameter, length, height) result in biased estimates of future mean biomass when uncertainty in growth is misrepresented. Our case study shows how models of tree growth that predict the same mean diameter increment, but with alternative representations of growth uncertainty, result in almost a threefold difference in the projections of future mean tree biomass after a 20-yr simulation. These results have important implications concerning our ability to accurately predict future biomass and all the related environmental services (e.g., forest carbon content, timber and fishery yields). If the objective is to predict future biomass, we strongly recommend that: (1) ecological modelers should choose a growth model based on a variable more linearly related to biomass (e.g., tree basal area instead of tree diameter for forest models); (2) if field measurements preclude the use of variables other than the linear measure of size, both the mean and other statistical moments (e.g., covariances) should be carefully modeled; (3) careful assessment be done on models that aggregate similar individuals (i.e., cohort models) to see if neglecting autocorrelated growth from individuals leads to biased estimates of future mean biomass.

The importance of multimodel projections to assess uncertainty in projections from simulation models

Simulation models are increasingly used to gain insights regarding the long-term effect of both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts on natural resources and to devise and evaluate policies that aim to minimize these effects. If the uncertainty from simulation model projections is not adequately quantified and reported, modeling results might be misleading, with potentially serious implications. A method is described, based on a nested simulation design associated with multimodel projections, that allows the partitioning of the overall uncertainty in model projections into a number of different sources of uncertainty: model stochasticity, starting conditions, parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty that originates from the use of key model assumptions. These sources of uncertainty are likely to be present in most simulation models. Using the forest dynamics model SYMFOR as a case study, it is shown that the uncertainty originated from the use of alternate modeling assumptions, a source of uncertainty seldom reported, can be the greatest source of uncertainty, accounting for 66-97% of the overall variance of the mean after 100 years of stand dynamics simulation. This implicitly reveals the great importance of these multimodel projections even when multiple models from independent research groups are not available. Finally, it is suggested that a weighted multimodel average (in which the weights are estimated from the data) might be substantially more precise than a simple multimodel average (equivalent to equal weights for all models) as models that strongly conflict with the data are given greatly reduced or even zero weights. The method of partitioning modeling uncertainty is likely to be useful for other simulation models, allowing for a better estimate of the uncertainty of model projections and allowing researchers to identify which data need to be collected to reduce this uncertainty.

Nocturnal accumulation of CO2 underneath a tropical forest canopy along a topographical gradient

Flux measurements of carbon dioxide and water vapor above tropical rain forests are often difficult to interpret because the terrain is usually complex. This complexity induces heterogeneity in the surface but also affects lateral movement of carbon dioxide (CO2) not readily detected by the eddy covariance systems. This study describes such variability using measurements of CO2 along vertical profiles and along a toposequence in a tropical rain forest near Manaus, Brazil. Seasonal and diurnal variation was recorded, with atmospheric CO2 concentration maxima around dawn, generally higher CO2 build-up in the dry season and stronger daytime CO2 drawdown in the wet season. This variation was reflected all along the toposequence, but the slope and valley bottom accumulated clearly more CO2 than the plateaus, depending on atmospheric stability. Particularly during stable nights, accumulation was along lines of equal altitude, suggesting that large amounts of CO2 are stored in the valleys of the landscape. Flushing of this store only occurs during mid-morning, when stored CO2 may well be partly transported back to the plateaus. It is clear that, for proper interpretation of tower fluxes in such complex and actively respiring terrain, the horizontal variability of storage needs to be taken into account not only during the night but also during the mornings.

The changing Amazon forest

Long-term monitoring of distributed, multiple plots is the key to quantify macroecological patterns and changes. Here we examine the evidence for concerted changes in the structure, dynamics and composition of old-growth Amazonian forests in the late twentieth century. In the 1980s and 1990s, mature forests gained biomass and underwent accelerated growth and dynamics, all consistent with a widespread, long-acting stimulation of growth. Because growth on average exceeded mortality, intact Amazonian forests have been a carbon sink. In the late twentieth century, biomass of trees of more than 10cm diameter increased by 0.62+/-0.23tCha-1yr-1 averaged across the basin. This implies a carbon sink in Neotropical old-growth forest of at least 0.49+/-0.18PgCyr-1. If other biomass and necromass components are also increased proportionally, then the old-growth forest sink here has been 0.79+/-0.29PgCyr-1, even before allowing for any gains in soil carbon stocks. This is approximately equal to the carbon emissions to the atmosphere by Amazon deforestation. There is also evidence for recent changes in Amazon biodiversity. In the future, the growth response of remaining old-growth mature Amazon forests will saturate, and these ecosystems may switch from sink to source driven by higher respiration (temperature), higher mortality (as outputs equilibrate to the growth inputs and periodic drought) or compositional change (disturbances). Any switch from carbon sink to source would have profound implications for global climate, biodiversity and human welfare, while the documented acceleration of tree growth and mortality may already be affecting the interactions among millions of species.

The role of gap phase processes in the biomass dynamics of tropical forests

The responses of tropical forests to global anthropogenic disturbances remain poorly understood. Above-ground woody biomass in some tropical forest plots has increased over the past several decades, potentially reflecting a widespread response to increased resource availability, for example, due to elevated atmospheric CO2 and/or nutrient deposition. However, previous studies of biomass dynamics have not accounted for natural patterns of disturbance and gap phase regeneration, making it difficult to quantify the importance of environmental changes. Using spatially explicit census data from large (50 ha) inventory plots, we investigated the influence of gap phase processes on the biomass dynamics of four 'old-growth' tropical forests (Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama; Pasoh and Lambir, Malaysia; and Huai Kha Khaeng (HKK), Thailand). We show that biomass increases were gradual and concentrated in earlier-phase forest patches, while biomass losses were generally of greater magnitude but concentrated in rarer later-phase patches. We then estimate the rate of biomass change at each site independent of gap phase dynamics using reduced major axis regressions and ANCOVA tests. Above-ground woody biomass increased significantly at Pasoh (+0.72% yr(-1)) and decreased at HKK (-0.56% yr(-1)) independent of changes in gap phase but remained stable at both BCI and Lambir. We conclude that gap phase processes play an important role in the biomass dynamics of tropical forests, and that quantifying the role of gap phase processes will help improve our understanding of the factors driving changes in forest biomass as well as their place in the global carbon budget.

Decelerating growth in tropical forest trees

The impacts of global change on tropical forests remain poorly understood. We examined changes in tree growth rates over the past two decades for all species occurring in large (50-ha) forest dynamics plots in Panama and Malaysia. Stem growth rates declined significantly at both forests regardless of initial size or organizational level (species, community or stand). Decreasing growth rates were widespread, occurring in 24-71% of species at Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI) and in 58-95% of species at Pasoh, Malaysia (depending on the sizes of stems included). Changes in growth were not consistently associated with initial growth rate, adult stature, or wood density. Changes in growth were significantly associated with regional climate changes: at both sites growth was negatively correlated with annual mean daily minimum temperatures, and at BCI growth was positively correlated with annual precipitation and number of rainfree days (a measure of relative insolation). While the underlying cause(s) of decelerating growth is still unresolved, these patterns strongly contradict the hypothesized pantropical increase in tree growth rates caused by carbon fertilization. Decelerating tree growth will have important economic and environmental implications.

Carbon stock growth in a forest stand: the power of age

BACKGROUND

Understanding the relationship between the age of a forest stand and its biomass is essential for managing the forest component of the global carbon cycle. Since biomass increases with stand age, postponing harvesting to the age of biological maturity may result in the formation of a large carbon sink. This article quantifies the carbon sequestration capacity of forests by suggesting a default rule to link carbon stock and stand age.

RESULTS

The age dependence of forest biomass is shown to be a power-law monomial where the power of age is theoretically estimated to be 4/5. This theoretical estimate is close to the known empirical estimate; therefore, it provides a scientific basis for a quick and transparent assessment of the benefits of postponing the harvest, suggesting that the annual magnitude of the sink induced by delayed harvest lies in the range of 1-2% of the baseline carbon stock.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study imply that forest age could be used as an easily understood and scientifically sound measure of the progress in complying with national targets on the protection and enhancement of forest carbon sinks.

Tropical forests and the changing earth system

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

Tree allometry and improved estimation of carbon stocks and balance in tropical forests

Tropical forests hold large stores of carbon, yet uncertainty remains regarding their quantitative contribution to the global carbon cycle. One approach to quantifying carbon biomass stores consists in inferring changes from long-term forest inventory plots. Regression models are used to convert inventory data into an estimate of aboveground biomass (AGB). We provide a critical reassessment of the quality and the robustness of these models across tropical forest types, using a large dataset of 2,410 trees >or= 5 cm diameter, directly harvested in 27 study sites across the tropics. Proportional relationships between aboveground biomass and the product of wood density, trunk cross-sectional area, and total height are constructed. We also develop a regression model involving wood density and stem diameter only. Our models were tested for secondary and old-growth forests, for dry, moist and wet forests, for lowland and montane forests, and for mangrove forests. The most important predictors of AGB of a tree were, in decreasing order of importance, its trunk diameter, wood specific gravity, total height, and forest type (dry, moist, or wet). Overestimates prevailed, giving a bias of 0.5-6.5% when errors were averaged across all stands. Our regression models can be used reliably to predict aboveground tree biomass across a broad range of tropical forests. Because they are based on an unprecedented dataset, these models should improve the quality of tropical biomass estimates, and bring consensus about the contribution of the tropical forest biome and tropical deforestation to the global carbon cycle.

Amazonia and the modern carbon cycle: lessons learned

In this paper, we review some critical issues regarding carbon cycling in Amazonia, as revealed by several studies conducted in the Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). We evaluate both the contribution of this magnificent biome for the global net primary productivity/net ecosystem exchange (NPP/NEE) and the feedbacks of climate change on the dynamics of Amazonia. In order to place Amazonia in a global perspective and make the carbon flux obtained through the LBA project comparable with global carbon budgets, we extrapolated NPP/NEE values found by LBA studies to the entire area of the Brazilian Amazon covered by rainforest. The carbon emissions due to land use changes for the tropical regions of the world produced values from 0.96 to 2.4 Pg C year(-1), while atmospheric CO2 inversion models have recently indicated that tropical lands in the Americas could be exchanging a net 0.62+/-1.15 Pg C year(-1) with the atmosphere. The difference calculated from these two methods would imply a local sink of approximately 1.6-1.7 Pg C year(-1), or a source of 0.85 ton C ha(-1) year(-1). Using our crude extrapolation of LBA values for the Amazon forests (5 million km2) we estimate a range for the C flux in the region of -3.0 to 0.75 Pg C year(-1). The exercise here does not account for environmental variability across the region, but it is an important driver for present and future studies linking local process (i.e. nutrient availability, photosynthetic capacity, and so forth) to global and regional dynamic approaches.

Response of tree biomass and wood litter to disturbance in a Central Amazon forest

We developed an individual-based stochastic-empirical model to simulate the carbon dynamics of live and dead trees in a Central Amazon forest near Manaus, Brazil. The model is based on analyses of extensive field studies carried out on permanent forest inventory plots, and syntheses of published studies. New analyses included: (1) growth suppression of small trees, (2) maximum size (trunk base diameter) for 220 tree species, (3) the relationship between growth rate and wood density, and (4) the growth response of surviving trees to catastrophic mortality (from logging). The model simulates a forest inventory plot, and tracks recruitment, growth, and mortality of live trees, decomposition of dead trees (coarse litter), and how these processes vary with changing environmental conditions. Model predictions were tested against aggregated field data, and also compared with independent measurements including maximum tree age and coarse litter standing stocks. Spatial analyses demonstrated that a plot size of approximately 10 ha was required to accurately measure wood (live and dead) carbon balance. With the model accurately predicting relevant pools and fluxes, a number of model experiments were performed to predict forest carbon balance response to perturbations including: (1) increased productivity due to CO2 fertilization, (2) a single semi-catastrophic (10%) mortality event, (3) increased recruitment and mortality (turnover) rates, and (4) the combined effects of increased turnover, increased tree growth rates, and decreased mean wood density of new recruits. Results demonstrated that carbon accumulation over the past few decades observed on tropical forest inventory plots (approximately 0.5 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1)) is not likely caused by CO2 fertilization. A maximum 25% increase in woody tissue productivity with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 only resulted in an accumulation rate of 0.05 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) for the period 1980-2020 for a Central Amazon forest, or an order of magnitude less than observed on the inventory plots. In contrast, model parameterization based on extensive data from a logging experiment demonstrated a rapid increase in tree growth following disturbance, which could be misinterpreted as carbon sequestration if changes in coarse litter stocks were not considered. Combined results demonstrated that predictions of changes in forest carbon balance during the twenty-first century are highly dependent on assumptions of tree response to various perturbations, and underscores the importance of a close coupling of model and field investigations.

Concerted changes in tropical forest structure and dynamics: evidence from 50 South American long-term plots

Several widespread changes in the ecology of old-growth tropical forests have recently been documented for the late twentieth century, in particular an increase in stem turnover (pan-tropical), and an increase in above-ground biomass (neotropical). Whether these changes are synchronous and whether changes in growth are also occurring is not known. We analysed stand-level changes within 50 long-term monitoring plots from across South America spanning 1971-2002. We show that: (i) basal area (BA: sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees in a plot) increased significantly over time (by 0.10 +/- 0.04 m2 ha(-1) yr(-1), mean +/- 95% CI); as did both (ii) stand-level BA growth rates (sum of the increments of BA of surviving trees and BA of new trees that recruited into a plot); and (iii) stand-level BA mortality rates (sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees that died in a plot). Similar patterns were observed on a per-stem basis: (i) stem density (number of stems per hectare; 1 hectare is 10(4) m2) increased significantly over time (0.94 +/- 0.63 stems ha(-1) yr(-1)); as did both (ii) stem recruitment rates; and (iii) stem mortality rates. In relative terms, the pools of BA and stem density increased by 0.38 +/- 0.15% and 0.18 +/- 0.12% yr(-1), respectively. The fluxes into and out of these pools-stand-level BA growth, stand-level BA mortality, stem recruitment and stem mortality rates-increased, in relative terms, by an order of magnitude more. The gain terms (BA growth, stem recruitment) consistently exceeded the loss terms (BA loss, stem mortality) throughout the period, suggesting that whatever process is driving these changes was already acting before the plot network was established. Large long-term increases in stand-level BA growth and simultaneous increases in stand BA and stem density imply a continent-wide increase in resource availability which is increasing net primary productivity and altering forest dynamics. Continent-wide changes in incoming solar radiation, and increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and air temperatures may have increased resource supply over recent decades, thus causing accelerated growth and increased dynamism across the world's largest tract of tropical forest.

Some aspects of ecophysiological and biogeochemical responses of tropical forests to atmospheric change

Atmospheric changes that may affect physiological and biogeochemical processes in old-growth tropical forests include: (i) rising atmospheric CO2 concentration; (ii) an increase in land surface temperature; (iii) changes in precipitation and ecosystem moisture status; and (iv) altered disturbance regimes. Elevated CO2 is likely to directly influence numerous leaf-level physiological processes, but whether these changes are ultimately reflected in altered ecosystem carbon storage is unclear. The net primary productivity (NPP) response of old-growth tropical forests to elevated CO2 is unknown, but unlikely to exceed the maximum experimentally measured 25% increase in NPP with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial levels. In addition, evolutionary constraints exhibited by tropical plants adapted to low CO2 levels during most of the Late Pleistocene, may result in little response to increased carbon availability. To set a maximum potential response for a Central Amazon forest, using an individual-tree-based carbon cycling model, a modelling experiment was performed constituting a 25% increase in tree growth rate, linked to the known and expected increase in atmospheric CO2. Results demonstrated a maximum carbon sequestration rate of ca. 0.2 Mg C per hectare per year (ha(-1) yr(-1), where 1 ha = 10(4) m2), and a sequestration rate of only 0.05 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) for an interval centred on calendar years 1980-2020. This low rate results from slow growing trees and the long residence time of carbon in woody tissues. By contrast, changes in disturbance frequency, precipitation patterns and other environmental factors can cause marked and relatively rapid shifts in ecosystem carbon storage. It is our view that observed changes in tropical forest inventory plots over the past few decades is more probably being driven by changes in disturbance or other environmental factors, than by a response to elevated CO2. Whether these observed changes in tropical forests are the beginning of long-term permanent shifts or a transient response is uncertain and remains an important research priority.

Pattern and process in Amazon tree turnover, 1976-2001

Previous work has shown that tree turnover, tree biomass and large liana densities have increased in mature tropical forest plots in the late twentieth century. These results point to a concerted shift in forest ecological processes that may already be having significant impacts on terrestrial carbon stocks, fluxes and biodiversity. However, the findings have proved controversial, partly because a rather limited number of permanent plots have been monitored for rather short periods. The aim of this paper is to characterize regional-scale patterns of 'tree turnover' (the rate with which trees die and recruit into a population) by using improved datasets now available for Amazonia that span the past 25 years. Specifically, we assess whether concerted changes in turnover are occurring, and if so whether they are general throughout the Amazon or restricted to one region or environmental zone. In addition, we ask whether they are driven by changes in recruitment, mortality or both. We find that: (i) trees 10 cm or more in diameter recruit and die twice as fast on the richer soils of southern and western Amazonia than on the poorer soils of eastern and central Amazonia; (ii) turnover rates have increased throughout Amazonia over the past two decades; (iii) mortality and recruitment rates have both increased significantly in every region and environmental zone, with the exception of mortality in eastern Amazonia; (iv) recruitment rates have consistently exceeded mortality rates; (v) absolute increases in recruitment and mortality rates are greatest in western Amazonian sites; and (vi) mortality appears to be lagging recruitment at regional scales. These spatial patterns and temporal trends are not caused by obvious artefacts in the data or the analyses. The trends cannot be directly driven by a mortality driver (such as increased drought or fragmentation-related death) because the biomass in these forests has simultaneously increased. Our findings therefore indicate that long-acting and widespread environmental changes are stimulating the growth and productivity of Amazon forests.

Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests

Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño-Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests.

Forest structure and carbon dynamics in Amazonian tropical rain forests

Living trees constitute one of the major stocks of carbon in tropical forests. A better understanding of variations in the dynamics and structure of tropical forests is necessary for predicting the potential for these ecosystems to lose or store carbon, and for understanding how they recover from disturbance. Amazonian tropical forests occur over a vast area that encompasses differences in topography, climate, and geologic substrate. We observed large differences in forest structure, biomass, and tree growth rates in permanent plots situated in the eastern (near Santarém, Pará), central (near Manaus, Amazonas) and southwestern (near Rio Branco, Acre) Amazon, which differed in dry season length, as well as other factors. Forests at the two sites experiencing longer dry seasons, near Rio Branco and Santarém, had lower stem frequencies (460 and 466 ha(-1) respectively), less biodiversity (Shannon-Wiener diversity index), and smaller aboveground C stocks (140.6 and 122.1 Mg C ha(-1)) than the Manaus site (626 trees ha(-1), 180.1 Mg C ha(-1)), which had less seasonal variation in rainfall. The forests experiencing longer dry seasons also stored a greater proportion of the total biomass in trees with >50 cm diameter (41-45 vs 30% in Manaus). Rates of annual addition of C to living trees calculated from monthly dendrometer band measurements were 1.9 (Manaus), 2.8 (Santarém), and 2.6 (Rio Branco) Mg C ha(-1) year(-1). At all sites, trees in the 10-30 cm diameter class accounted for the highest proportion of annual growth (38, 55 and 56% in Manaus, Rio Branco and Santarém, respectively). Growth showed marked seasonality, with largest stem diameter increment in the wet season and smallest in the dry season, though this may be confounded by seasonal variation in wood water content. Year-to-year variations in C allocated to stem growth ranged from nearly zero in Rio Branco, to 0.8 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) in Manaus (40% of annual mean) and 0.9 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) (33% of annual mean) in Santarém, though this variability showed no significant relation with precipitation among years. Initial estimates of the C balance of live wood including recruitment and mortality as well as growth suggests that live wood biomass is at near steady-state in Manaus, but accumulating at about 1.5 Mg C ha(-1) at the other two sites. The causes of C imbalance in living wood pools in Santarém and Rio Branco sites are unknown, but may be related to previous disturbance at these sites. Based on size distribution and growth rate differences in the three sites, we predict that trees in the Manaus forest have greater mean age (approximately 240 years) than those of the other two forests (approximately 140 years).

Uncertainties in the role of land vegetation in the carbon cycle

Since the late 1950s the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has been increasing by around 0.5-3 ppm per year. Understanding of carbon sinks is vital to understanding this trend and its future behaviour. Here we examine some of the factors which may affect the proportion of anthropogenic CO2 ending up in the atmosphere in the present and in the future, and variability in the CO2 increase from one year to another. We also examine the evidence for the potential of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks to take up or release CO2. In some cases, a careful re-examination of the research methods used to deduce present and future feedbacks may be necessary. The most advanced technology and the most complex models do not necessarily produce reliable results. They should be carefully checked against a general background knowledge of ecological processes before their results are accepted.

Changes in the use and management of forests for abating carbon emissions: issues and challenges under the Kyoto Protocol

The global carbon cycle is significantly influenced by changes in the use and management of forests and agriculture. Humans have the potential through changes in land use and management to alter the magnitude of forest-carbon stocks and the direction of forest-carbon fluxes. However, controversy over the use of biological means to absorb or reduce emissions of CO(2) (often referred to as carbon 'sinks') has arisen in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The controversy is based primarily on two arguments: sinks may allow developed nations to delay or avoid actions to reduce fossil fuel emissions, and the technical and operational difficulties are too threatening to the successful implementation of land use and forestry projects for providing carbon offsets. Here we discuss the importance of including carbon sinks in efforts to address global warming and the consequent additional social, environmental and economic benefits to host countries. Activities in tropical forest lands provide the lowest cost methods both of reducing emissions and reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. We conclude that the various objections raised as to the inclusion of carbon sinks to ameliorate climate change can be addressed by existing techniques and technology. Carbon sinks provide a practical available method of achieving meaningful reductions in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide while at the same time contribute to national sustainable development goals.

Increasing dominance of large lianas in Amazonian forests

Ecological orthodoxy suggests that old-growth forests should be close to dynamic equilibrium, but this view has been challenged by recent findings that neotropical forests are accumulating carbon and biomass, possibly in response to the increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. However, it is unclear whether the recent increase in tree biomass has been accompanied by a shift in community composition. Such changes could reduce or enhance the carbon storage potential of old-growth forests in the long term. Here we show that non-fragmented Amazon forests are experiencing a concerted increase in the density, basal area and mean size of woody climbing plants (lianas). Over the last two decades of the twentieth century the dominance of large lianas relative to trees has increased by 1.7-4.6% a year. Lianas enhance tree mortality and suppress tree growth, so their rapid increase implies that the tropical terrestrial carbon sink may shut down sooner than current models suggest. Predictions of future tropical carbon fluxes will need to account for the changing composition and dynamics of supposedly undisturbed forests.