Parasites and climate synchronize red grouse populations

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

The Immune Response to Nematode Infection

Nematode infection is a major threat to the health of humans, domestic animals and wildlife. Nematodes vary in their effect on the host and in the mechanisms underlying immunity but the general features are becoming clear. There is considerable variation among individuals in resistance to infection and much of this variation is due to genetic variation in the immune response. The major histocompatibility complex has a strong influence on resistance to infection but other genes are collectively more important. Resistant individuals produce more IgA, eosinophils, IgE and mast cells than susceptible individuals and this is a consequence of stronger type 2 (Th2) immune responses. A variety of factors promote Th2 responses including genetic background, diet, molecules produced by the parasite and the location of the infection. A variety of cells and molecules including proteins, glycolipids and RNA act in concert to promote responses and to regulate the response. Nematodes themselves also modulate the host response and over 20 parasite-derived immunomodulatory molecules have been identified. Different species of nematodes modulate the immune response in different ways and probably use multiple molecules. The reasons for this are unclear and the interactions among immunomodulators have still to be investigated.

The effect of temperature and challenge route on in vitro hemocyte phagocytosis activation after experimental challenge of common octopus, Octopus vulgaris (Cuvier, 1797) with either Photobacterium damselae subsp. damselae or Vibrio anguillarum O1

Infectious diseases in aquaculture could be associated with high mortalities and morbidity rates, resulting in negative impacts to fish farming industry, consumers, and the environment. Octopods are reared near marine fish farming areas, and this may represent a major risk since fish pathogens may cause pathologies to octopods. Up to date cephalopods immune defense and pathologies, are incompletely understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the effect of water temperature and challenge route on hemocyte phagocytosis in vitro after experimental challenge of common octopus with Photobacterium damselae subsp. damselae or Vibrio anguillarum O1. Hemolymph was withdrawn at various time-points post-challenge and the number of circulating hemocytes, and phagocytosis ability were determined. No mortalities were recorded irrespective of pathogen, route of challenge and temperature employed. Great variation was observed in the number of circulating hemocytes of both control and challenged specimens in both experiments (1.04 × 10⁵ to 22.33 × 10⁵ hemocytes/ml for the Photobacterium damselae subsp. damselae challenge and 1.35 × 10⁵ to 24.63 × 10⁵ hemocytes/ml for the Vibrio anguillarum O1 and at both studied temperatures). No correlation was found between circulating hemocytes and baseline control specimens body weight. Probably, the number of circulating hemocytes is affected by many extrinsic, and intrinsic factors such as size, age, maturity stage, natural fluctuations and temperature, as indicated in the literature. The hemocyte foreign particles binding ability observed in Photobacterium damselae subsp. damselae experiments, at 21 ± 0.5 °C and 24 ± 0.5 °C, was (mean ± SD) 2.26 ± 2.96 and 11.72 ± 12.36 yeast cells/hemocyte for baseline specimens and 7.84 ± 8.88 and 8.56 ± 9.89 yeast cells/hemocyte for control and challenged specimens, respectively. The corresponding values for Vibrio anguillarum O1 experiments were (mean ± SD) 6.68 ± 9.26 and 7.00 ± 8.11 yeast cells/hemocyte for baseline specimens and 8.82 ± 9.75 and 6.04 ± 7.64 yeast cells/hemocyte for control and challenged specimens, respectively. Hemocytes of the Photobacterium damselae subsp. damselae and Vibrio anguillarum O1 challenged specimens, were more activated at lower temperature. Apparently, temperature is an important factor in hemocyte activation. In addition, our results indicated that time post challenge, route of challenge and pathogen may influence phagocytosis ability.

Interspecific synchrony on breeding performance and the role of anthropogenic food subsidies

Synchrony can have important consequences for long-term metapopulations persistence, community dynamics and ecosystems functioning. While the causes and consequences of intra-specific synchrony on population size and demographic rates have received considerable attention only a few factors that may affect inter-specific synchrony have been described. We formulate the hypothesis that food subsidies can buffer the influence of environmental stochasticity on community dynamics, disrupting and masking originally synchronized systems. To illustrate this hypothesis, we assessed the consequences of European policies implementation affecting subsidy availability on the temporal synchrony of egg volume as a proxy of breeding investment in two sympatric marine top predators with differential subsidy use. We show how 7-year synchrony appears on egg volume fluctuations after subsidy cessation suggesting that food subsidies could disrupt interspecific synchrony. Moreover, cross correlation increased after subsidy cessation and environmental buffering seems to act during synchronization period. We emphasize that subsidies dynamics and waste management provide novel insights on the emergence of synchrony in natural populations.

Disturbance and nutrients synchronise kelp forests across scales through interacting Moran effects

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987-2019) and >900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm-driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)-underpinned by climatic variability-act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales.

Population dynamics and diversity of trematode infections in Bithynia siamensis goniomphalos in an irrigated area in northeast Thailand

Several trematodes including Opisthorchis viverrini utilize Bithynia siamensis goniomphalos as a snail intermediate host in their life cycles. In order to capture a comprehensive range of host–parasite interactions and their transmission dynamic patterns, B. s. goniomphalos were sampled monthly over 4 consecutive years in an irrigated paddy-field habitat in northeast Thailand. Using a standard cercarial shedding method, a high diversity of trematodes (17 types) was recovered. Virgulate xiphidiocercariae were the most prevalent (7.84%) followed by O. viverrini (0.71%). In addition to seasonal and environmental factors, the quantity of irrigation water for rice cultivation correlated with transmission dynamics of trematodes in B. s. goniomphalos. The peak prevalence of all trematode infections combined in the snails shifted from the cool-dry season in 2010–2012 to the hot-dry season in 2013 associated with an increasing quantity of water irrigation. A low frequency of mixed trematode infections was found, indicating that the emergence of virgulate cercariae, but not of O. viverrini, was negatively impacted by the presence of other trematodes in the same snail. Taken together, the observed results suggest that interactions between host and parasite, and hence transmission dynamics, depend on specific characteristics of the parasite and environmental factors including irrigated water for rice cultivation.

Spatial synchrony is related to environmental change in Finnish moth communities

Spatially distinct pairs of sites may have similarly fluctuating population dynamics across large geographical distances, a phenomenon called spatial synchrony. However, species rarely exist in isolation, but rather as members of interactive communities, linked with other communities through dispersal (i.e. a metacommunity). Using data on Finnish moth communities sampled across 65 sites for 20 years, we examine the complex synchronous/anti-synchronous relationships among sites using the geography of synchrony framework. We relate site-level synchrony to mean and temporal variation in climatic data, finding that colder and drier sites-and those with the most drastic temperature increases-are important for spatial synchrony. This suggests that faster-warming sites contribute most strongly to site-level estimates of synchrony, highlighting the role of a changing climate to spatial synchrony. Considering the spatial variability in climate change rates is therefore important to understand metacommunity dynamics and identify habitats which contribute most strongly to spatial synchrony.

Senescence in immunity against helminth parasites predicts adult mortality in a wild mammal

Our understanding of the deterioration in immune function in old age-immunosenescence-derives principally from studies of modern human populations and laboratory animals. The generality and significance of this process for systems experiencing complex, natural infections and environmental challenges are unknown. Here, we show that late-life declines in an important immune marker of resistance to helminth parasites in wild Soay sheep predict overwinter mortality. We found senescence in circulating antibody levels against a highly prevalent nematode worm, which was associated with reduced adult survival probability, independent of changes in body weight. These findings establish a role for immunosenescence in the ecology and evolution of natural populations.

When does weather synchronize life-history traits? Spatiotemporal patterns in juvenile body mass of two ungulates

Theory predicts that animal populations will be synchronized over large distances by weather and climatic conditions with high spatial synchrony. However, local variation in population responses to weather, and low synchrony in key weather variables or in other ecological processes may reduce the population synchrony. We investigated to what extent temperature and precipitation during different periods of the year synchronized juvenile body mass of moose and reindeer in Norway. We expected high synchronizing effect of weather variables with a high and consistent explanatory power on body mass dynamics across populations, and a weaker synchronizing effect of weather variables whose effect on body mass varied among populations. Juvenile body mass in both species was related to temperature and precipitation during several periods of the year. Temperature had the strongest explanatory power in both species, with a similar effect across all populations. There was higher spatial synchrony in temperature compared to precipitation, and accordingly temperature had the strongest synchronizing effect on juvenile body mass. Moreover, periods with strong explanatory power had stronger synchronizing effect on juvenile body mass in both species. However, weather variables with large variation in the effects on body mass among populations had weak synchronizing effect. The results confirm that weather has a large impact on the spatial structure of population properties but also that spatial heterogeneity, for instance, in environmental change or population density may affect how and to what extent populations are synchronized.

Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect

Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra- and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces as well as environmental factors on population dynamics with a spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical approach. We found red squirrel abundance to be positively associated with both the abundance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) cones and the predators, the pine marten (Martes martes) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), probably due to shared habitat preferences. The results suggest that red squirrel populations are synchronized over remarkably large distances, on a scale of hundreds of kilometres, and that this synchrony is mainly driven by similarly spatially autocorrelated spruce cone crop. Our research demonstrates how a bottom-up effect can drive spatial synchrony in consumer populations on a very large scale of hundreds of kilometres, and also how an explicit spatiotemporal approach can improve model performance for fluctuating populations.

Sampling to elucidate the dynamics of infections in reservoir hosts

The risk of zoonotic spillover from reservoir hosts, such as wildlife or domestic livestock, to people is shaped by the spatial and temporal distribution of infection in reservoir populations. Quantifying these distributions is a key challenge in epidemiology and disease ecology that requires researchers to make trade-offs between the extent and intensity of spatial versus temporal sampling. We discuss sampling methods that strengthen the reliability and validity of inferences about the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in wildlife hosts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Predicting seasonal infection of eyeworm (Oxyspirura petrowi) and caecal worm (Aulonocephalus pennula) in northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) of the Rolling Plains Ecoregion of Texas, USA

The northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) is a popular gamebird in the Rolling Plains Ecoregion of West Texas. However, there has been a population decline in this area over recent decades. Consistent reports indicate a high prevalence of the eyeworm (Oxyspirura petrowi) and caecal worm (Aulonocephalus pennula), which may be of major influence on the bobwhite population. While research has suggested pathological consequences and genetic relatedness to other pathologically significant parasites, little is known about the influence of climate on these parasites. In this study, we examined whether seasonal temperature and precipitation influences the intensity of these parasites in bobwhite. We also analyzed quantitative PCR results for bobwhite feces and cloacal swabs against temperature and precipitation to identify climatic impacts on parasite reproduction in this region. Multiple linear regression analyses were used for parasite intensity investigation while binary logistic regression analyses were used for parasite reproduction studies. Our analyses suggest that caecal worm intensity, caecal worm reproduction, and eyeworm reproduction are influenced by temperature and precipitation. Temperature data was collected 15, 30, and 60 days prior to the date of collection of individual bobwhite and compared to qPCR results to generate a temperature range that may influence future eyeworm reproduction. This is the first preliminary study investigating climatic influences with predictive statistics on eyeworm and caecal worm infection of northern bobwhite in the Rolling Plains.

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Bobwhite quail in West Texas, USA have high prevalence of eyeworm and caecal worm.

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Wild quail were necropsied and fecal samples collected.

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Parasite intensity and reproduction from this data compared to climate data of study location.

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Caecal worm intensity, reproduction, and eyeworm reproduction influenced by climate.

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Eyeworm reproduction influenced by temperature 60 days prior to bobwhite collection.

Local and population-level responses of Greater sage-grouse to oil and gas development and climatic variation in Wyoming

BACKGROUND

Spatial scale is important when studying ecological processes. The Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a large sexually dimorphic tetraonid that is endemic to the sagebrush biome of western North America. The impacts of oil and gas (OAG) development at individual leks has been well-documented. However, no previous studies have quantified the population-level response.

METHODS

Hierarchical models were used to estimate the effects of the areal disturbance due to well pads as well as climatic variation on individual lek counts and Greater sage-grouse populations (management units) over 32 years. The lek counts were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models while the management units were analyzed using Gompertz population dynamic models. The models were fitted using frequentist and Bayesian methods. An information-theoretic approach was used to identify the most important spatial scale and time lags. The relative importance of OAG and climate at the local and population-level scales was assessed using information-theoretic (Akaike's weights) and estimation (effect size) statistics.

RESULTS

At the local scale, OAG was an important negative predictor of the lek count. At the population scale, there was only weak support for OAG as a predictor of density changes but the estimated impacts on the long-term carrying capacity were consistent with summation of the local impacts. Regional climatic variation, as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, was an important positive predictor of density changes at both the local and population level (particularly in the most recent part of the time series).

CONCLUSIONS

Additional studies to reduce the uncertainty in the range of possible effects of OAG at the population scale are required. Wildlife agencies need to account for the effects of regional climatic variation when managing sage-grouse populations.

Borrelia afzelii alters reproductive success in a rodent host

The impact of a pathogen on the fitness and behaviour of its natural host depends upon the host-parasite relationship in a given set of environmental conditions. Here, we experimentally investigated the effects of Borrelia afzelii, one of the aetiological agents of Lyme disease in humans, on the fitness of its natural rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), in semi-natural conditions with two contrasting host population densities. Our results show that B. afzelii can modify the reproductive success and spacing behaviour of its rodent host, whereas host survival was not affected. Infection impaired the breeding probability of large bank voles. Reproduction was hastened in infected females without alteration of the offspring size at birth. At low density, infected males produced fewer offspring, fertilized fewer females and had lower mobility than uninfected individuals. Meanwhile, the infection did not affect the proportion of offspring produced or the proportion of mating partner in female bank voles. Our study is the first to show that B. afzelii infection alters the reproductive success of the natural host. The effects observed could reflect the sickness behaviour due to the infection or they could be a consequence of a manipulation of the host behaviour by the bacteria.

Weather-driven change in primary productivity explains variation in the amplitude of two herbivore population cycles in a boreal system

Vertebrate populations throughout the circumpolar north often exhibit cyclic dynamics, and predation is generally considered to be a primary driver of these cycles in a variety of herbivore species. However, weather and climate play a role in entraining cycles over broad landscapes and may alter cyclic dynamics, although the mechanism by which these processes operate is uncertain. Experimental and observational work has suggested that weather influences primary productivity over multi-year time periods, suggesting a pathway through which weather and climate may influence cyclic herbivore dynamics. Using long-term monitoring data, we investigated the relationships among multi-year weather conditions, measures of primary productivity, and the abundance of two cyclic herbivore species: snowshoe hare and northern red-backed vole. We found that precipitation (rain and snow) and growing season temperatures were strongly associated with variation in primary productivity over multi-year time horizons. In turn, fourfold variation in the amplitude of both the hare and vole cycles observed in our study area corresponded to long-term changes in primary productivity. The congruence of our results for these two species suggests a general mechanism by which weather and climate might influence cyclic herbivore population dynamics. Our findings also suggested that the association between climate warming and the disappearance of cycles might be initiated by changes in primary productivity. This work provides an explanation for observed influences of weather and climate on primary productivity and population cycles and will help our collective understanding of how future climate warming may influence these ecological phenomena in the future.

Scale-dependent portfolio effects explain growth inflation and volatility reduction in landscape demography

Population demography is central to fundamental ecology and for predicting range shifts, decline of threatened species, and spread of invasive organisms. There is a mismatch between most demographic work, carried out on few populations and at local scales, and the need to predict dynamics at landscape and regional scales. Inspired by concepts from landscape ecology and Markowitz's portfolio theory, we develop a landscape portfolio platform to quantify and predict the behavior of multiple populations, scaling up the expectation and variance of the dynamics of an ensemble of populations. We illustrate this framework using a 35-y time series on gypsy moth populations. We demonstrate the demography accumulation curve in which the collective growth of the ensemble depends on the number of local populations included, highlighting a minimum but adequate number of populations for both regional-scale persistence and cross-scale inference. The attainable set of landscape portfolios further suggests tools for regional population management for both threatened and invasive species.

Conditions affecting the timing and magnitude of Hendra virus shedding across pteropodid bat populations in Australia

Understanding infection dynamics in animal hosts is fundamental to managing spillover and emergence of zoonotic infections. Hendra virus is endemic in Australian pteropodid bat populations and can be lethal to horses and humans. However, we know little about the factors driving Hendra virus prevalence in resevoir bat populations, making spillover difficult to predict. We use Hendra virus prevalence data collected from 13 000 pooled bat urine samples across space and time to determine if pulses of prevalence are periodic and synchronized across sites. We also test whether site-specific precipitation and temperature affect the amplitude of the largest annual prevalence pulses. We found little evidence for a periodic signal in Hendra virus prevalence. Although the largest amplitude pulses tended to occur over winter, pulses could also occur in other seasons. We found that Hendra virus prevalence was weakly synchronized across sites over short distances, suggesting that prevalence is driven by local-scale effects. Finally, we found that drier conditions in previous seasons and the abundance of Pteropus alecto were positively correlated with the peak annual values of Hendra virus prevalence. Our results suggest that in addition to seasonal effects, bat density and local climatic conditions interact to drive Hendra virus infection dynamics.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series

Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

Host immunity shapes the impact of climate changes on the dynamics of parasite infections

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infections, and yet host immunity can also influence the impact of warming on host-parasite interactions and mitigate the long-term effects. We used time-series data from two helminth species of a natural herbivore and investigated the contribution of climate change and immunity on the long-term and seasonal dynamics of infection. We provide evidence that climate warming increases the availability of infective stages of both helminth species and the proportional increase in the intensity of infection for the helminth not regulated by immunity. In contrast, there is no significant long-term positive trend in the intensity for the immune-controlled helminth, as immunity reduces the net outcome of climate on parasite dynamics. Even so, hosts experienced higher infections of this helminth at an earlier age during critical months in the warmer years. Immunity can alleviate the expected long-term effect of climate on parasite infections but can also shift the seasonal peak of infection toward the younger individuals.

Fecal antibody levels as a noninvasive method for measuring immunity to gastrointestinal nematodes in ecological studies

Among‐individual variation in antibody‐associated immunity to gastrointestinal nematode parasites (GIN) is known be associated with life‐history traits and vital rates in wild vertebrate systems. To date, measurement of levels of antibodies against GIN antigens in natural populations has exclusively been based on invasive blood sampling techniques. Previous work in laboratory rodents and ruminant livestock suggests that antibody measures from feces may provide a viable noninvasive approach. We measured total and anti‐GIN antibodies of different isotypes (immunoglobulin (Ig) G, IgA and IgE) from paired samples of plasma and feces from free‐living Soay sheep of different ages and sexes. We tested the correlations among these measures as well as their associations with body mass and Strongyle nematode fecal egg counts (FEC). Significant positive correlations were present among plasma and fecal anti‐GIN antibody levels for IgG and IgA. Generally, correlations between total antibody levels in plasma and feces were weaker and not significant. No significant relationships were found between any antibody measures and body mass; however, fecal anti‐GIN antibody levels were significantly negatively correlated with FEC. Our data clearly demonstrate the feasibility of measuring anti‐GIN antibodies from fecal samples collected in natural populations. Although associations of fecal antibody levels with their plasma counterparts and FEC were relatively weak, the presence of significant correlations in the predicted direction in a relatively small and heterogeneous sample suggests fecal antibody measures could be a useful, noninvasive addition to current eco‐immunological studies.

The importance of multiparasitism: examining the consequences of co-infections for human and animal health

Most parasites co-occur with other parasites, although the importance of such multiparasitism has only recently been recognised. Co-infections may result when hosts are independently infected by different parasites at the same time or when interactions among parasite species facilitate co-occurrence. Such interactions can have important repercussions on human or animal health because they can alter host susceptibility, infection duration, transmission risks, and clinical symptoms. These interactions may be synergistic or antagonistic and thus produce diverse effects in infected humans and animals. Interactions among parasites strongly influence parasite dynamics and therefore play a major role in structuring parasite populations (both within and among hosts) as well as host populations. However, several methodological challenges remain when it comes to detecting parasite interactions. The goal of this review is to summarise current knowledge on the causes and consequences of multiparasitism and to discuss the different methods and tools that researchers have developed to study the factors that lead to multiparasitism. It also identifies new research directions to pursue.

Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.

Climatic change is predicted to impact moisture-dependent ecosystems. Here Carroll et al. show that a combination of physical, biophysical and ecosystem processes determine the abundance and distribution of three bird species that feed on craneflies in blanket bogs.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Host density drives macroparasite abundance across populations of a critically endangered megaherbivore

What determines the abundance of parasites is a central question within epidemiology. Epidemiological models predict that density-dependent transmission has a principal influence on parasite abundance. However, this mechanism is seldom tested in macroparasites, perhaps because multiple, comparable populations of the same host-parasite relationship are rare. We test the influence of a range of factors on parasite abundance across 18 populations of black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) in South Africa. Here we show that host density strongly predicts parasite abundance at the population level for both directly and indirectly transmitted parasites. All other models were not supported. The surprising influence of a single key factor, host density, within a complex ecological system demonstrates the validity of simple epidemiological models. Establishing this previously assumed relationship between host density and parasite abundance has major implications for disease control and parasite ecology. For instance, it is central to the idea of population density thresholds for parasitism, below which a parasite would become extinct. Density-dependent transmission is also essential for calculations of the basic reproductive number, and the hypothesis that parasites may regulate host population size.

Context-dependent survival, fecundity and predicted population-level consequences of brucellosis in African buffalo

Chronic infections may have negative impacts on wildlife populations, yet their effects are difficult to detect in the absence of long-term population monitoring. Brucella abortus, the bacteria responsible for bovine brucellosis, causes chronic infections and abortions in wild and domestic ungulates, but its impact on population dynamics is not well understood. We report infection patterns and fitness correlates of bovine brucellosis in African buffalo based on (1) 7 years of cross-sectional disease surveys and (2) a 4-year longitudinal study in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We then used a matrix population model to translate these observed patterns into predicted population-level effects. Annual brucellosis seroprevalence ranged from 8·7% (95% CI = 1·8-15·6) to 47·6% (95% CI = 35·1-60·1) increased with age until adulthood (>6) and varied by location within KNP. Animals were on average in worse condition after testing positive for brucellosis (F = -5·074, P < 0·0001), and infection was associated with a 2·0 (95% CI = 1·1-3·7) fold increase in mortality (χ(2)  = 2·039, P = 0·036). Buffalo in low body condition were associated with lower reproductive success (F = 2·683, P = 0·034), but there was no association between brucellosis and pregnancy or being observed with a calf. For the range of body condition scores observed in the population, the model-predicted growth rate was λ = 1·11 (95% CI = 1·02-1·21) in herds without brucellosis and λ = 1·00 (95% CI = 0·85-1·16) when brucellosis seroprevalence was 30%. Our results suggest that brucellosis infection can potentially result in reduced population growth rates, but because these effects varied with demographic and environmental conditions, they may remain unseen without intensive, longitudinal monitoring.

Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host-pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

The parasitic eyeworm Oxyspirura petrowi as a possible cause of decline in the threatened lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus)

Lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) have been declining range wide since the early 1900's despite efforts to establish conservation and improve their habitat. In early 2014, the lesser prairie-chicken was listed as a threatened species under the U.S Endangered Species Act and the need to find out why they are declining is more important than ever. Nine hunter shot lesser prairie-chickens were donated and sampled for the presence or absence of the eyeworm Oxyspirura petrowi, a known parasite that can cause damage to the eye of its host, and common environmental contaminants. Eyeworm infection was found in 7 of 9 birds (78% infection rate) with an infection range between 0-16 O. petrowi per bird. Breast, liver, and fat tissue samples from the lesser prairie-chickens were analyzed for the frequency of 20 organochlorine pesticides. Femurs and livers were also tested on these birds for metal contaminants. Pesticides were found in several samples above the detection limits but were still in the low ng/g range. Notable was the ubiquitous presence of endrin aldehyde across all tissues. One femur showed 5.66 µg/g of lead (Pb) but this is still relatively low. No liver samples had elevated mercury (Hg) above detection limits. The presence of these organochlorines is consistent with the historic use of pesticides in this region. With pesticide and metals found in such low levels and parasitic nematode infections at rather high levels, it is recommended that these parasites be further evaluated as a contributing factor to the decline of the lesser prairie-chicken.

Impact of thermal stress on evolutionary trajectories of pathogen resistance in three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

Background

Pathogens are a major regulatory force for host populations, especially under stressful conditions. Elevated temperatures may enhance the development of pathogens, increase the number of transmission stages, and can negatively influence host susceptibility depending on host thermal tolerance. As a net result, this can lead to a higher prevalence of epidemics during summer months. These conditions also apply to marine ecosystems, where possible ecological impacts and the population-specific potential for evolutionary responses to changing environments and increasing disease prevalence are, however, less known. Therefore, we investigated the influence of thermal stress on the evolutionary trajectories of disease resistance in three marine populations of three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus by combining the effects of elevated temperature and infection with a bacterial strain of Vibrio sp. using a common garden experiment.

Results

We found that thermal stress had an impact on fish weight and especially on survival after infection after only short periods of thermal acclimation. Environmental stress reduced genetic differentiation (Q_ST) between populations by releasing cryptic within-population variation. While life history traits displayed positive genetic correlations across environments with relatively weak genotype by environment interactions (GxE), environmental stress led to negative genetic correlations across environments in pathogen resistance. This reversal of genetic effects governing resistance is probably attributable to changing environment-dependent virulence mechanisms of the pathogen interacting differently with host genotypes, i.e. G_PathogenxG_HostxE or (G_PathogenxE)x(G_HostxE) interactions, rather than to pure host genetic effects, i.e. G_HostxE interactions.

Conclusion

To cope with climatic changes and the associated increase in pathogen virulence, host species require wide thermal tolerances and pathogen-resistant genotypes. The higher resistance we found for some families at elevated temperatures showed that there is evolutionary potential for resistance to Vibrio sp. in both thermal environments. The negative genetic correlation of pathogen resistance between thermal environments, on the other hand, indicates that adaptation to current conditions can be a weak predictor for performance in changing environments. The observed feedback on selective gradients exerted on life history traits may exacerbate this effect, as it can also modify the response to selection for other vital components of fitness.

Ecological morphotaxometry of trematodes of garfish (Teleostomi: Belonidae) from Gangetic riverine ecosystem in India. III. Principal component analysis in the dynamics of Cephalogonimus yamunii (Upadhyay, Jaiswal, Malhotra and Malhotra, 2012)

The attributes of multivariate analyses were applied to infer peculiarity in distribution dynamics of Cephalogonimus yamunii Upadhyay et al. (J Parasit, 2012) in Xenentodon cancilla under influence of interionic interactions amongst hydrobiological factors. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney's Test χ(2) statistic was significant for the effect of Dissolved Oxygen and magnesium. The temperature optimum 23-27 °C was concluded for expression of peak prevalence and mean intensity during change in water temperature between autumn and winter periods. The dominant Ist component (PC1 (p) ) from Principal Component Analysis of monthwise response of infection data by C. yamunii in X. cancilla was further confirmed by Scree Plot of Eigenvalues and Factor Loadings Plot to identify the critical impact of hardness of water on infection prevalence and mean intensity. The findings of larger PC1 (p) positive coefficients comprehensively substantiated predominating hardness factor, under the influence of enhanced Dissolved Oxygen and optimum thermal effect. Therefore, the role of multifactorial etiology is a definite possibility.

Multivariate immune defences and fitness in the wild: complex but ecologically important associations among plasma antibodies, health and survival

Despite our rapidly advancing mechanistic understanding of vertebrate immunity under controlled laboratory conditions, the links between immunity, infection and fitness under natural conditions remain poorly understood. Antibodies are central to acquired immune responses, and antibody levels circulating in vivo reflect a composite of constitutive and induced functional variants of diverse specificities (e.g. binding antigens from prevalent parasites, self tissues or novel non-self sources). Here, we measured plasma concentrations of 11 different antibody types in adult females from an unmanaged population of Soay sheep on St Kilda. Correlations among antibody measures were generally positive but weak, and eight of the measures independently predicted body mass, strongyle parasite egg count or survival over the subsequent winter. These independent and, in some cases, antagonistic relationships point to important multivariate immunological heterogeneities affecting organismal health and fitness in natural systems. Notably, we identified a strong positive association between anti-nematode immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibodies in summer and subsequent over-winter survival, providing rare evidence for a fitness benefit of helminth-specific immunity under natural conditions. Our results highlight both the evolutionary and ecological importance and the complex nature of the immune phenotype in the wild.

Assessing the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions: a comparative study of European birds and their parasites

Background

Climate change potentially has important effects on distribution, abundance, transmission and virulence of parasites in wild populations of animals.

Methodology/Principal Finding

Here we analyzed paired information on 89 parasite populations for 24 species of bird hosts some years ago and again in 2010 with an average interval of 10 years. The parasite taxa included protozoa, feather parasites, diptera, ticks, mites and fleas. We investigated whether change in abundance and prevalence of parasites was related to change in body condition, reproduction and population size of hosts. We conducted analyses based on the entire dataset, but also on a restricted dataset with intervals between study years being 5–15 years. Parasite abundance increased over time when restricting the analyses to datasets with an interval of 5–15 years, with no significant effect of changes in temperature at the time of breeding among study sites. Changes in host body condition and clutch size were related to change in temperature between first and second study year. In addition, changes in clutch size, brood size and body condition of hosts were correlated with change in abundance of parasites. Finally, changes in population size of hosts were not significantly related to changes in abundance of parasites or their prevalence.

Conclusions/Significance

Climate change is associated with a general increase in parasite abundance. Variation in laying date depended on locality and was associated with latitude while body condition of hosts was associated with a change in temperature. Because clutch size, brood size and body condition were associated with change in parasitism, these results suggest that parasites, perhaps mediated through the indirect effects of temperature, may affect fecundity and condition of their hosts. The conclusions were particularly in accordance with predictions when the restricted dataset with intervals of 5–15 years was used, suggesting that short intervals may bias findings.

Gimme shelter--the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host-parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the 'shelter effect'. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid-summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature-dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R0 . It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host-parasite systems.

Generation of periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations by hostile boundaries

Many recent datasets on cyclic populations reveal spatial patterns with the form of periodic travelling waves (wavetrains). Mathematical modelling has identified a number of potential causes of this spatial organization, one of which is a hostile habitat boundary. In this paper, the author investigates the member of the periodic travelling wave family selected by such a boundary in models of reaction–diffusion type. Using a predator–prey model as a case study, the author presents numerical evidence that the wave generated by a hostile (zero-Dirichlet) boundary condition is the same as that generated by fixing the population densities at their coexistence steady-state levels. The author then presents analysis showing that the two waves are the same, in general, for oscillatory reaction–diffusion models with scalar diffusion close to Hopf bifurcation. This calculation yields a general formula for the amplitude, speed and wavelength of these waves. By combining this formula with established results on periodic travelling wave stability, the author presents a division of parameter space into regions in which a hostile boundary will generate periodic travelling waves, spatio-temporal disorder or a mixture of the two.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep

1. Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management.

Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers

Despite the pervasiveness of spatial synchrony of population fluctuations in virtually every taxon, it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms, such as environmental perturbations and dispersal. We used multiple regression of distance matrices (MRMs) to statistically partition the importance of several factors potentially synchronizing the dynamics of the gypsy moth, an invasive species in North America, exhibiting outbreaks that are partially synchronized over long distances (approx. 900 km). The factors considered in the MRM were synchrony in weather conditions, spatial proximity and forest-type similarity. We found that the most likely driver of outbreak synchrony is synchronous precipitation. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing outbreak synchrony after accounting for precipitation, suggesting dispersal does not drive outbreak synchrony. Because a previous modelling study indicated weather might indirectly synchronize outbreaks through synchronization of oak masting and generalist predators that feed upon acorns, we also examined the influence of weather and proximity on synchrony of acorn production. As we found for outbreak synchrony, synchrony in oak masting increased with synchrony in precipitation, though it also increased with proximity. We conclude that precipitation could synchronize gypsy moth populations directly, as in a Moran effect, or indirectly, through effects on oak masting, generalist predators or diseases.