Late Pleistocene climate drivers of early human migration

Gelada genomes highlight events of gene flow, hybridisation and local adaptation that track past climatic changes

Theropithecus gelada, the last surviving species of this genus, occupy a unique and highly specialised ecological niche in the Ethiopian highlands. A subdivision into three geographically defined populations (Northern, Central and Southern) has been tentatively proposed for this species on the basis of genetic analyses, but genomic data have been investigated only for two of these groups (Northern and Central). Here we combined newly generated whole genome sequences of individuals sampled from the population living south of the East Africa Great Rift Valley with available data from the other two gelada populations to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the species. Integrating genomic and paleoclimatic data we found that gene-flow across populations and with Papio species tracked past climate changes. The isolation and climatic conditions experienced by Southern geladas during the Holocene shaped local diversity and generated diet-related genomic signatures.

Reconstruction of human dispersal during Aurignacian on pan-European scale

The Aurignacian is the first techno-complex related with certainty to Anatomically Modern Humans in Europe. Studies show that they appeared around 43-42 kyr cal BP and dispersed rapidly in Europe during the Upper Palaeolithic. However, human dispersal is a highly convoluted process which is until today not well understood. Here, we provide a reconstruction of the human dispersal during the Aurignacian on the pan-European scale using a human dispersal model, the Our Way Model, which combines archaeological with paleoclimate data and uses the human existence potential as a unifying driver of human population dynamics. Based on the reconstruction, we identify the different stages of the human dispersal and analyse how human demographic processes are influenced by climate change and topography. A chronology of the Aurignacian human groups in Europe is provided, which is verified for locations where archaeological dating records are available. Insights into highly debated hypotheses, such as human dispersal routes, are provided.

MIS 3 innovative behavior and highland occupation during a stable wet episode in the Lake Tana paleoclimate record, Ethiopia

Securely dated archaeological sites from key regions and periods are critical for understanding early modern human adaptive responses to past environmental change. Here, we report new radiocarbon dates of > 42,000 cal years BP for an intensive human occupation of Gorgora rockshelter in the Ethiopian Highlands. We also document the development of innovative technologies and symbolic behaviors starting around this time. The evidenced occupation and behavioral patterns coincide with the onset and persistence of a stable wet phase in the geographically proximate high-resolution core record of Lake Tana. Range expansion into montane habitats and the subsequent development of innovative technologies and behaviors are consistent with population dispersal waves within Africa and beyond during wetter phases ~ 60-40 thousand years ago (ka).

Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing

Over the history of humankind, cultural innovations have helped improve survival and adaptation to environmental stress. This has led to an overall increase in human population size, which in turn further contributed to cumulative cultural learning. During the Anthropocene, or arguably even earlier, this positive sociodemographic feedback has caused a strong decline in important resources that, coupled with projected future transgression of planetary boundaries, may potentially reverse the long-term trend in population growth. Here, we present a simple consumer/resource model that captures the coupled dynamics of stochastic cultural learning and transmission, population growth and resource depletion in a changing environment. The idealized stochastic mathematical model simulates boom/bust cycles between low-population subsistence, high-density resource exploitation and subsequent population decline. For slow resource recovery time scales and in the absence of climate forcing, the model predicts a long-term global population collapse. Including a simplified periodic climate forcing, we find that cultural innovation and population growth can couple with climatic forcing via nonlinear phase synchronization. We discuss the relevance of this finding in the context of cultural innovation, the anthropological record and long-term future resilience of our own predatory species.

Environmental conditions associated with initial northern expansion of anatomically modern humans

The ability of our ancestors to switch food sources and to migrate to more favourable environments enabled the rapid global expansion of anatomically modern humans beyond Africa as early as 120,000 years ago. Whether this versatility was largely the result of environmentally determined processes or was instead dominated by cultural drivers, social structures, and interactions among different groups, is unclear. We develop a statistical approach that combines both archaeological and genetic data to infer the more-likely initial expansion routes in northern Eurasia and the Americas. We then quantify the main differences in past environmental conditions between the more-likely routes and other potential (less-likely) routes of expansion. We establish that, even though cultural drivers remain plausible at finer scales, the emergent migration corridors were predominantly constrained by a combination of regional environmental conditions, including the presence of a forest-grassland ecotone, changes in temperature and precipitation, and proximity to rivers.

Physiography, foraging mobility, and the first peopling of Sahul

The route and speed of migration into Sahul by Homo sapiens remain a major research question in archaeology. Here, we introduce an approach which models the impact of the physical environment on human mobility by combining time-evolving landscapes with Lévy walk foraging patterns, this latter accounting for a combination of short-distance steps and occasional longer moves that hunter-gatherers likely utilised for efficient exploration of new environments. Our results suggest a wave of dispersal radiating across Sahul following riverine corridors and coastlines. Estimated migration speeds, based on archaeological sites and predicted travelled distances, fall within previously reported range from Sahul and other regions. From our mechanistic movement simulations, we then analyse the likelihood of archaeological sites and highlight areas in Australia that hold archaeological potential. Our approach complements existing methods and provides interesting perspectives on the Pleistocene archaeology of Sahul that could be applied to other regions around the world.

The Effect of Income and Wealth on Behavioral Strategies, Personality Traits, and Preferences

Individuals living in either harsh or favorable environments display well-documented psychological and behavioral differences. For example, people in favorable environments tend to be more future-oriented, trust strangers more, and have more explorative preferences. To account for such differences, psychologists have turned to evolutionary biology and behavioral ecology, in particular, the literature on life-history theory and pace-of-life syndrome. However, critics have found that the theoretical foundations of these approaches are fragile and that differences in life expectancy cannot explain vast psychological and behavioral differences. In this article, we build on the theory of optimal resource allocation to propose an alternative framework. We hypothesize that the quantity of resources available, such as income, has downstream consequences on psychological traits, leading to the emergence of behavioral syndromes. We show that more resources lead to more long-term orientation, more tolerance of variance, and more investment in low marginal-benefit needs. At the behavioral level, this translates, among others, into more large-scale cooperation, more investment in health, and more exploration. These individual-level differences in behavior, in turn, account for cultural phenomena such as puritanism, authoritarianism, and innovation.

Concurrent Asian monsoon strengthening and early modern human dispersal to East Asia during the last interglacial

The relationship between initial Homo sapiens dispersal from Africa to East Asia and the orbitally paced evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM)-currently the largest monsoon system-remains underexplored due to lack of coordinated synthesis of both Asian paleoanthropological and paleoclimatic data. Here, we investigate orbital-scale ASM dynamics during the last 280 thousand years (kyr) and their likely influences on early H. sapiens dispersal to East Asia, through a unique integration of i) new centennial-resolution ASM records from the Chinese Loess Plateau, ii) model-based East Asian hydroclimatic reconstructions, iii) paleoanthropological data compilations, and iv) global H. sapiens habitat suitability simulations. Our combined proxy- and model-based reconstructions suggest that ASM precipitation responded to a combination of Northern Hemisphere ice volume, greenhouse gas, and regional summer insolation forcing, with cooccurring primary orbital cycles of ~100-kyr, 41-kyr, and ~20-kyr. Between ~125 and 70 kyr ago, summer monsoon rains and temperatures increased in vast areas across Asia. This episode coincides with the earliest H. sapiens fossil occurrence at multiple localities in East Asia. Following the transcontinental increase in simulated habitat suitability, we suggest that ASM strengthening together with Southeast African climate deterioration may have promoted the initial H. sapiens dispersal from their African homeland to remote East Asia during the last interglacial.

Human-specific genetics: new tools to explore the molecular and cellular basis of human evolution

Our ancestors acquired morphological, cognitive and metabolic modifications that enabled humans to colonize diverse habitats, develop extraordinary technologies and reshape the biosphere. Understanding the genetic, developmental and molecular bases for these changes will provide insights into how we became human. Connecting human-specific genetic changes to species differences has been challenging owing to an abundance of low-effect size genetic changes, limited descriptions of phenotypic differences across development at the level of cell types and lack of experimental models. Emerging approaches for single-cell sequencing, genetic manipulation and stem cell culture now support descriptive and functional studies in defined cell types with a human or ape genetic background. In this Review, we describe how the sequencing of genomes from modern and archaic hominins, great apes and other primates is revealing human-specific genetic changes and how new molecular and cellular approaches - including cell atlases and organoids - are enabling exploration of the candidate causal factors that underlie human-specific traits.

Extreme glacial cooling likely led to hominin depopulation of Europe in the Early Pleistocene

The oldest known hominin remains in Europe [~1.5 to ~1.1 million years ago (Ma)] have been recovered from Iberia, where paleoenvironmental reconstructions have indicated warm and wet interglacials and mild glacials, supporting the view that once established, hominin populations persisted continuously. We report analyses of marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea core on the Portugese margin that show the presence of pronounced millennial-scale climate variability during a glacial period ~1.154 to ~1.123 Ma, culminating in a terminal stadial cooling comparable to the most extreme events of the last 400,000 years. Climate envelope-model simulations reveal a drastic decrease in early hominin habitat suitability around the Mediterranean during the terminal stadial. We suggest that these extreme conditions led to the depopulation of Europe, perhaps lasting for several successive glacial-interglacial cycles.

The spatiotemporal extent of the Green Sahara during the last glacial period

The Sahara Desert, one of today's most inhospitable environments, has known periods of enhanced precipitation that supported pre-historic humans. However, the Green Sahara timing and moisture sources are not well known due to limited paleoclimate information. Here, we present a multi-proxy (δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, Δ¹⁷O, and trace elements) speleothem-based climate record from Northwest (NW) Africa. Our data document two Green Sahara periods during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a and the Early to Mid-Holocene. Consistency with paleoclimate records across North Africa highlights the east-west geographical extent of the Green Sahara, whereas millennial-scale North Atlantic cooling (Heinrich) events consistently resulted in drier conditions. We demonstrate that an increase in westerly-originating winter precipitation during MIS5a resulted in favorable environmental conditions. The comparison of paleoclimate data with local archaeological sequences highlights the abrupt climate deterioration and the decline in human density in NW Africa during the MIS5-4 transition, which suggests climate-forced dispersals of populations, with possible implications for pathways into Eurasia.

Human adaptation to diverse biomes over the past 3 million years

To investigate the role of vegetation and ecosystem diversity on hominin adaptation and migration, we identify past human habitat preferences over time using a transient 3-million-year earth system-biome model simulation and an extensive hominin fossil and archaeological database. Our analysis shows that early African hominins predominantly lived in open environments such as grassland and dry shrubland. Migrating into Eurasia, hominins adapted to a broader range of biomes over time. By linking the location and age of hominin sites with corresponding simulated regional biomes, we also find that our ancestors actively selected for spatially diverse environments. The quantitative results lead to a new diversity hypothesis: Homo species, in particular Homo sapiens, were specially equipped to adapt to landscape mosaics.

The "2.8 ka BP Cold Event" Indirectly Influenced the Agricultural Exploitation During the Late Zhou Dynasty in the Coastal Areas of the Jianghuai Region

As a global cooling event, many of the climatic and socio-cultural mechanisms that resulted in changes after the 2. 8 ka BP event remain unclear. In China, this period roughly corresponds with the Zhou Dynasty (1046-212 BC), a critical period when ancient Chinese civilization was experiencing significant cultural and technological changes, including the movement of people to modern-day Jiangsu Province, where they intensively used the natural resources found in this the coastal area. Recent archaeobotanical evidence, and two radiocarbon dates on wheat and foxtail millet, indicate that the Datongpu site, which dates around 2,600 cal a BP, was occupied during this period of transition around the 2.8 ka BP climate event. In total, our investigations recovered 3,399 carbonized seeds from seventy-four flotation samples, of which rice, foxtail millet, broomcorn millet, and wheat seeds where predominant along with 2,296 weed seeds. Additionally, we identified several rice spikelets and wheat rachises. The high number of carbonized rice grains indicates that rice farming was the primary crop in an otherwise mixed rice-dry farming system at Datongpu. In addition, we argue that the "2.8 ka BP cold event" probably influenced population growth and caused food shortages throughout Central China, leading people to migrate southeastward along the Huai River to the coastal areas of Jianghuai Region. We argue that this abrupt shift in the climate indirectly facilitated the exploitation and emergence of large-scale agriculture in this area. Our study provides an example for the indirect impact of climate change in areas with relatively favorable climate conditions.

Subsistence strategy mediates ecological drivers of human violence

Inter-personal violence (whether intra- or inter-group) is a pervasive yet highly variable human behavior. Evolutionary anthropologists suggest that the abundance and distribution of resources play an important role in influencing differences in rates of violence, with implications for how resource conditions structure adaptive payoffs. Here, we assess whether differences in large-scale ecological conditions explain variability in levels of inter-personal human violence. Model results reveal a significant relationship between resource conditions and violence that is mediated by subsistence economy. Specifically, we find that interpersonal violence is highest: (1) among foragers and mixed forager/farmers (horticulturalists) in productive, homogeneous environments, and (2) among agriculturalists in unproductive, heterogeneous environments. We argue that the trend reversal between foragers and agriculturalists represents differing competitive pathways to enhanced reproductive success. These alternative pathways may be driven by features of subsistence (i.e., surplus, storage, mobility, privatization), in which foragers use violence to directly acquire fitness-linked social payoffs (i.e., status, mating opportunities, alliances), and agriculturalists use violence to acquire material resources that can be transformed into social payoffs. We suggest that as societies transition from immediate return economies (e.g., foragers) to delayed return economies (e.g., agriculturalists) material resources become an increasingly important adaptive payoff for inter-personal, especially inter-group, violence.

Climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions

It has long been believed that climate shifts during the last 2 million years had a pivotal role in the evolution of our genus Homo^1–3. However, given the limited number of representative palaeo-climate datasets from regions of anthropological interest, it has remained challenging to quantify this linkage. Here, we use an unprecedented transient Pleistocene coupled general circulation model simulation in combination with an extensive compilation of fossil and archaeological records to study the spatiotemporal habitat suitability for five hominin species over the past 2 million years. We show that astronomically forced changes in temperature, rainfall and terrestrial net primary production had a major impact on the observed distributions of these species. During the Early Pleistocene, hominins settled primarily in environments with weak orbital-scale climate variability. This behaviour changed substantially after the mid-Pleistocene transition, when archaic humans became global wanderers who adapted to a wide range of spatial climatic gradients. Analysis of the simulated hominin habitat overlap from approximately 300–400 thousand years ago further suggests that antiphased climate disruptions in southern Africa and Eurasia contributed to the evolutionary transformation of Homo heidelbergensis populations into Homo sapiens and Neanderthals, respectively. Our robust numerical simulations of climate-induced habitat changes provide a framework to test hypotheses on our human origin.

A new model simulation of climate change during the past 2 million years indicates that the appearances and disappearances of hominin species correlate with long-term climatic anomalies.

Innovative ochre processing and tool use in China 40,000 years ago

Homo sapiens was present in northern Asia by around 40,000 years ago, having replaced archaic populations across Eurasia after episodes of earlier population expansions and interbreeding^1-4. Cultural adaptations of the last Neanderthals, the Denisovans and the incoming populations of H. sapiens into Asia remain unknown^1,5-7. Here we describe Xiamabei, a well-preserved, approximately 40,000-year-old archaeological site in northern China, which includes the earliest known ochre-processing feature in east Asia, a distinctive miniaturized lithic assemblage with bladelet-like tools bearing traces of hafting, and a bone tool. The cultural assembly of traits at Xiamabei is unique for Eastern Asia and does not correspond with those found at other archaeological site assemblages inhabited by archaic populations or those generally associated with the expansion of H. sapiens, such as the Initial Upper Palaeolithic^8-10. The record of northern Asia supports a process of technological innovations and cultural diversification emerging in a period of hominin hybridization and admixture^2,3,6,11.

Ostrich eggshell beads reveal 50,000-year-old social network in Africa

Humans evolved in a patchwork of semi-connected populations across Africa1,2; understanding when and how these groups connected is critical to interpreting our present-day biological and cultural diversity. Genetic analyses reveal that eastern and southern African lineages diverged sometime in the Pleistocene epoch, approximately 350-70 thousand years ago (ka)3,4; however, little is known about the exact timing of these interactions, the cultural context of these exchanges or the mechanisms that drove their separation. Here we compare ostrich eggshell bead variations between eastern and southern Africa to explore population dynamics over the past 50,000 years. We found that ostrich eggshell bead technology probably originated in eastern Africa and spread southward approximately 50-33 ka via a regional network. This connection breaks down approximately 33 ka, with populations remaining isolated until herders entered southern Africa after 2 ka. The timing of this disconnection broadly corresponds with the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which caused periodic flooding of the Zambezi River catchment (an area that connects eastern and southern Africa). This suggests that climate exerted some influence in shaping human social contact. Our study implies a later regional divergence than predicted by genetic analyses, identifies an approximately 3,000-kilometre stylistic connection and offers important new insights into the social dimension of ancient interactions.

Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

Global hunter-gatherer population densities constrained by influence of seasonality on diet composition

The dependence of hunter-gatherers on local net primary production (NPP) to provide food played a major role in shaping long-term human population dynamics. Observations of contemporary hunter-gatherers have shown an overall correlation between population density and annual NPP but with a 1,000-fold variation in population density per unit NPP that remains unexplained. Here, we build a process-based hunter-gatherer population model embedded within a global terrestrial biosphere model, which explicitly addresses the extraction of NPP through dynamically allocated hunting and gathering activities. The emergent results reveal a strong, previously unrecognized effect of seasonality on population density via diet composition, whereby hunter-gatherers consume high fractions of meat in regions where growing seasons are short, leading to greatly reduced population density due to trophic inefficiency. This seasonal carnivory bottleneck largely explains the wide variation in population density per unit NPP and questions the prevailing usage of annual NPP as the proxy of carrying capacity for ancient humans. Our process-based approach has the potential to greatly refine our understanding of dynamical responses of ancient human populations to past environmental changes.

A multi-proxy approach to exploring Homo sapiens' arrival, environments and adaptations in Southeast Asia

The capability of Pleistocene hominins to successfully adapt to different types of tropical forested environments has long been debated. In order to investigate environmental changes in Southeast Asia during a critical period for the turnover of hominin species, we analysed palaeoenvironmental proxies from five late Middle to Late Pleistocene faunas. Human teeth discoveries have been reported at Duoi U'Oi, Vietnam (70-60 ka) and Nam Lot, Laos (86-72 ka). However, the use of palaeoproteomics allowed us to discard the latter, and, to date, no human remains older than ~ 70 ka are documented in the area. Our findings indicate that tropical rainforests were highly sensitive to climatic changes over that period, with significant fluctuations of the canopy forests. Locally, large-bodied faunas were resilient to these fluctuations until the cooling period of the Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS 4; 74-59 ka) that transformed the overall biotope. Then, under strong selective pressures, populations with new phenotypic characteristics emerged while some other species disappeared. We argue that this climate-driven shift offered new foraging opportunities for hominins in a novel rainforest environment and was most likely a key factor in the settlement and dispersal of our species during MIS 4 in SE Asia.

Roles of insolation forcing and CO2 forcing on Late Pleistocene seasonal sea surface temperatures

Late Pleistocene changes in insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and ice sheets have different spatially and seasonally modulated climatic fingerprints. By exploring the seasonality of paleoclimate proxy data, we gain deeper insight into the drivers of climate changes. Here, we investigate changes in alkenone-based annual mean and Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca-based summer sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and their linkages to climate forcing over the past 400,000 years. During interglacial-glacial cycles, there are phase differences between annual mean and seasonal (summer and winter) temperatures, which relate to seasonal insolation changes. These phase differences are most evident during interglacials. During glacial terminations, temperature changes were strongly affected by CO₂. Early temperature minima, ~20,000 years before glacial terminations, except the last glacial period, coincide with the largest temperature differences between summer and winter, and with the timing of the lowest atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These findings imply the need to consider proxy seasonality and seasonal climate variability to estimate climate sensitivity.

How temperatures at different seasons differ in response to different forcings is not well known. Here, the authors reconstruct annual and seasonal sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and show that they react differently to CO2 and insolation forcing on glacial-interglacial timescales.

Climatic windows for human migration out of Africa in the past 300,000 years

Whilst an African origin of modern humans is well established, the timings and routes of their expansions into Eurasia are the subject of heated debate, due to the scarcity of fossils and the lack of suitably old ancient DNA. Here, we use high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions to estimate how difficult it would have been for humans in terms of rainfall availability to leave the African continent in the past 300k years. We then combine these results with an anthropologically and ecologically motivated estimate of the minimum level of rainfall required by hunter-gatherers to survive, allowing us to reconstruct when, and along which geographic paths, expansions out of Africa would have been climatically feasible. The estimated timings and routes of potential contact with Eurasia are compatible with archaeological and genetic evidence of human expansions out of Africa, highlighting the key role of palaeoclimate variability for modern human dispersals.

Plant wax biomarkers in human evolutionary studies

Plant wax biomarkers are an innovative proxy for reconstructing vegetation composition and structure, rainfall intensity, temperature, and other climatic and environmental dynamics. Traditionally used in earth sciences and climate studies from "off-site" ocean and lake records, biomarker research is now incorporated in archeology and paleoanthropology to answer questions relating to past human-environment interactions and human evolution. Biomarker research is generating new and exciting information on the ecological context in which Homo and its closest relatives evolved, adapted, and invented stone tool technologies. In this review, we examine plant wax biomarkers and their use in reconstructing past plant landscapes and hydroclimates. We summarize the applications of plant wax molecular proxies in archeological research, assess challenges relating to taphonomy, consider the role of modern plant ecosystems in interpreting ancient habitats, and examine case studies conducted at key paleoanthropological locations in eastern and southern Africa and Europe.

Rare crested rat subfossils unveil Afro-Eurasian ecological corridors synchronous with early human dispersals

Biotic interactions between Africa and Eurasia across the Levant have invoked particular attention among scientists aiming to unravel early human dispersals. However, it remains unclear whether behavioral capacities enabled early modern humans to surpass the Saharo-Arabian deserts or if climatic changes triggered punctuated dispersals out of Africa. Here, we report an unusual subfossil assemblage discovered in a Judean Desert's cliff cave near the Dead Sea and dated to between ∼42,000 and at least 103,000 y ago. Paleogenomic and morphological comparisons indicate that the specimens belong to an extinct subspecies of the eastern African crested rat, Lophiomys imhausi maremortum subspecies nova, which diverged from the modern eastern African populations in the late Middle Pleistocene ∼226,000 to 165,000 y ago. The reported paleomitogenome is the oldest so far in the Levant, opening the door for future paleoDNA analyses in the region. Species distribution modeling points to the presence of continuous habitat corridors connecting eastern Africa with the Levant during the Last Interglacial ∼129,000 to 116,000 y ago, providing further evidence of the northern ingression of African biomes into Eurasia and reinforcing previous suggestions of the critical role of climate change in Late Pleistocene intercontinental biogeography. Furthermore, our study complements other paleoenvironmental proxies with local-instead of interregional-paleoenvironmental data, opening an unprecedented window into the Dead Sea rift paleolandscape.

Phytolith Palaeoenvironments at Mumba Rock Shelter

The rock shelter site of Mumba in northern Tanzania plays a pivotal role in the overall study of the late Pleistocene archaeology of East Africa with an emphasis on the Middle to Later Stone Age transition. We used phytolith analysis to reconstruct general plant habitat physiognomy around the site from the onset of the late Pleistocene to recent times, tallying 4246 individual phytoliths from 19 archaeological samples. Statistical analysis explored phytolith richness, diversity, dominance, and evenness, along with principal components to compare phytolith distributions over the site’s sequence with known plant habitats today. Generally, the phytolith record of Mumba signifies paleoenvironments with analogs in the Somalia – Masai bushland and grassland, as well as Zambezian woodlands.

Different environmental variables predict body and brain size evolution in Homo

Increasing body and brain size constitutes a key macro-evolutionary pattern in the hominin lineage, yet the mechanisms behind these changes remain debated. Hypothesized drivers include environmental, demographic, social, dietary, and technological factors. Here we test the influence of environmental factors on the evolution of body and brain size in the genus Homo over the last one million years using a large fossil dataset combined with global paleoclimatic reconstructions and formalized hypotheses tested in a quantitative statistical framework. We identify temperature as a major predictor of body size variation within Homo, in accordance with Bergmann's rule. In contrast, net primary productivity of environments and long-term variability in precipitation correlate with brain size but explain low amounts of the observed variation. These associations are likely due to an indirect environmental influence on cognitive abilities and extinction probabilities. Most environmental factors that we test do not correspond with body and brain size evolution, pointing towards complex scenarios which underlie the evolution of key biological characteristics in later Homo.

Contributions of evolutionary anthropology to understanding climate-induced human migration

Humans are able to thrive in a multitude of ecological and social environments, including varied environments over an individual lifetime. Migration-leaving one place of residence for another-is a central feature of many people's life histories, and environmental change goes hand-in-hand with migration, both in terms of cause and consequence. Climate change has amplified this connection between environment and migration, with the potential to profoundly impact millions of lives. Although climate-induced migration has been at the forefront of other disciplines in the social sciences, evolutionary anthropologists (EAs) have given it little attention. In this paper we draw upon existing literature and contribute our EA perspective to present a framework for analyzing climate-induced migration that utilizes theoretical approaches from a variety of social science disciplines. We focus on three overlapping dimensions-time, space, and severity-relevant to understanding the impact of climate change on human migration. We apply this framework to case studies from North America of people impacted by climate change and extreme weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, rising sea-levels, and wildfires. We also consider how access to both economic and social resources influence decisions regarding migration. Research focused on climate-induced human migration can benefit equally from the addition of EA perspectives and a more interdisciplinary theoretical approach.

The History and Driving Force for Prehistoric Human Expansion Upward to the Hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau Post–Last Glacial Maximum

The timing and motivation of prehistoric human expansion into the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a widely debated scientific issue. Recent archaeological studies have brought forward predictions of the earliest human occupation of the TP to the late–Middle Pleistocene. However, massive human occupation of the TP did not appear until the termination of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The spatio-temporal distribution of prehistoric hunter-gatherers on the TP varies significantly before the permanent occupation after 3600 BP (before present). Here, we report on environmental-archaeological evidence from the Canxionggashuo (CXGS) site in Yushu Prefecture, which provides information that is key to understanding the dynamics of post-LGM human occupation on the TP. Radiocarbon dating has revealed two occupation periods of the CXGS site at 8600–7100 cal (calibrated years) BP and 2400–2100 cal BP. The charcoal concentration in cultural layers correlates well with paleo–human activities. Hunter-gatherers expanded westwards from the northeastern margin of the TP to the hinterland of the TP during the warming period of the early–middle Holocene (~11,500–6000 BP). However, these groups retreated during the middle–late Holocene (~6000–3600 BP) under a cooling-drying climate. Prehistoric humans finally occupied the hinterland of the TP permanently after 3600 BP, with an enhanced cold-adaptive lifestyle, although the climate was still deteriorating.

Possible obliquity-forced warmth in southern Asia during the last glacial stage

Orbital-scale global climatic changes during the late Quaternary are dominated by high-latitude influenced ~100,000-year global ice-age cycles and monsoon influenced ~23,000-year low-latitude hydroclimate variations. However, the shortage of highly-resolved land temperature records remains a limiting factor for achieving a comprehensive understanding of long-term low-latitude terrestrial climatic changes. Here, we report paired mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and monsoon intensity proxy records over the past 88,000 years from Lake Tengchongqinghai in southwestern China. While summer monsoon intensity follows the ~23,000-year precession beat found also in previous studies, we identify previously unrecognized warm periods at 88,000-71,000 and 45,000-22,000 years ago, with 2-3 °C amplitudes that are close to our recorded full glacial-interglacial range. Using advanced transient climate simulations and comparing with forcing factors, we find that these warm periods in our MAAT record probably depends on local annual mean insolation, which is controlled by Earth's ~41,000-year obliquity cycles and is anti-phased to annual mean insolation at high latitudes. The coincidence of our identified warm periods and intervals of high-frequent dated archaeological evidence highlights the importance of temperature on anatomically modern humans in Asia during the last glacial stage.

Early Alpine occupation backdates westward human migration in Late Glacial Europe

Before the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼16.5 ka ago)¹ set in motion major shifts in human culture and population structure,² a consistent change in lithic technology, material culture, settlement pattern, and adaptive strategies is recorded in Southern Europe at ∼18-17 ka ago. In this time frame, the landscape of Northeastern Italy changed considerably, and the retreat of glaciers allowed hunter-gatherers to gradually recolonize the Alps.^3-6 Change within this renewed cultural frame (i.e., during the Late Epigravettian phase) is currently associated with migrations favored by warmer climate linked to the Bølling-Allerød onset (14.7 ka ago),^7-11 which replaced earlier genetic lineages with ancestry found in an individual who lived ∼14 ka ago at Riparo Villabruna, Italy, and shared among different contexts (Villabruna Cluster).⁹ Nevertheless, these dynamics and their chronology are still far from being disentangled due to fragmentary evidence for long-distance interactions across Europe.¹² Here, we generate new genomic data from a human mandible uncovered at Riparo Tagliente (Veneto, Italy), which we directly dated to 16,980-16,510 cal BP (2σ). This individual, affected by focal osseous dysplasia, is genetically affine to the Villabruna Cluster. Our results therefore backdate by at least 3 ka the diffusion in Southern Europe of a genetic component linked to Balkan/Anatolian refugia, previously believed to have spread during the later Bølling/Allerød event. In light of the new genetic evidence, this population replacement chronologically coincides with the very emergence of major cultural transitions in Southern and Western Europe.

Rethinking the ecological drivers of hominin evolution

A central goal of paleoanthropology is understanding the role of ecological change in hominin evolution. Over the past several decades researchers have expanded the hominin fossil record and assembled detailed late Cenozoic paleoclimatic, paleoenvironmental, and paleoecological archives. However, effective use of these data is precluded by the limitations of pattern-matching strategies for inferring causal relationships between ecological and evolutionary change. We examine several obstacles that have hindered progress, and highlight recent research that is addressing them by (i) confronting an incomplete fossil record, (ii) contending with datasets spanning varied spatiotemporal scales, and (iii) using theoretical frameworks to build stronger inferences. Expanding on this work promises to transform challenges into opportunities and set the stage for a new phase of paleoanthropological research.

Stochastic models support rapid peopling of Late Pleistocene Sahul

The peopling of Sahul (the combined continent of Australia and New Guinea) represents the earliest continental migration and settlement event of solely anatomically modern humans, but its patterns and ecological drivers remain largely conceptual in the current literature. We present an advanced stochastic-ecological model to test the relative support for scenarios describing where and when the first humans entered Sahul, and their most probable routes of early settlement. The model supports a dominant entry via the northwest Sahul Shelf first, potentially followed by a second entry through New Guinea, with initial entry most consistent with 50,000 or 75,000 years ago based on comparison with bias-corrected archaeological map layers. The model's emergent properties predict that peopling of the entire continent occurred rapidly across all ecological environments within 156-208 human generations (4368-5599 years) and at a plausible rate of 0.71-0.92 km year-1. More broadly, our methods and approaches can readily inform other global migration debates, with results supporting an exit of anatomically modern humans from Africa 63,000-90,000 years ago, and the peopling of Eurasia in as little as 12,000-15,000 years via inland routes.

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

Stabilization of cultural innovations depends on population density: Testing an epidemiological model of cultural evolution against a global dataset of rock art sites and climate-based estimates of ancient population densities

Demographic models of human cultural evolution have high explanatory potential but weak empirical support. Here we use a global dataset of rock art sites and climate and genetics-based estimates of ancient population densities to test a new model based on epidemiological principles. The model focuses on the process whereby a cultural innovation becomes endemic in a population, predicting that this cannot occur unless population density exceeds a critical threshold. Analysis of the data, using a Bayesian statistical framework, shows that the model has stronger empirical support than a proportional model, where detection is directly proportional to population density, or a null model, where rock art detection ratios and population density are independent. Results for different geographical areas and periods are compatible with the predictions of the model and confirm its superiority with respect to the null model. Re-analysis of the rock art data, using a second set of independent population estimates, again supports the superiority of the model. Although the available data is sparse and the analysis cannot exclude all possible sources of bias, this is evidence that population density above a critical threshold may be a necessary condition for the maintenance of rock art as a stable part of a population’s cultural repertoire. Methods similar to those described can be used to test the model for other classes of archaeological artifact and to compare it against other models.

A kingdom in decline: Holocene range contraction of the lion (Panthera leo) modelled with global environmental stratification

Aim

We use ecological niche models and environmental stratification of palaeoclimate to reconstruct the changing range of the lion (Panthera leo) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene.

Location

The modern (early 21st century) range of the lion extends from southern Africa to the western Indian Subcontinent, yet through the 20th century this range has been drastically reduced in extent and become increasingly fragmented as a result of human impacts.

Methods

We use Global Environmental Stratification with MaxEnt ecological niche models to map environmental suitability of the lion under current and palaeoclimatic scenarios. By examining modelled lion range in terms of categorical environmental strata, we characterise suitable bioclimatic conditions for the lion in a descriptive manner.

Results

We find that lion habitat suitability has reduced throughout the Holocene, controlled by pluvial/interpluvial cycles. The aridification of the Sahara  6ka dramatically reduced lion range throughout North Africa. The association of Saharan aridification with the development of pastoralism and the growth of sedentary communities, who practised animal husbandry, would have placed additional and lasting anthropogenic pressures on the lion.

Main Conclusions

This research highlights the need to integrate the full effects of the fluctuating vegetation and desiccation of the Sahara into palaeoclimatic models, and provides a starting point for further continental-scale analyses of shifting faunal ranges through North Africa and the Near East during the Holocene. This scale of ecological niche modelling does not explain the current pattern of genetic variation in the lion, and we conclude that narrow but substantial physical barriers, such as rivers, have likely played a major role in population vicariance throughout the Late Pleistocene.

Theoretical and Methodological Approaches to Ecological Changes, Social Behaviour and Human Intergroup Tolerance 300,000 to 30,000 BP

Archaeological evidence suggests that important shifts were taking place in the character of human social behaviours 300,000 to 30,000 years ago. New artefact types appear and are disseminated with greater frequency. Transfers of both raw materials and finished artefacts take place over increasing distances, implying larger scales of regional mobility and more frequent and friendlier interactions between different communities. Whilst these changes occur during a period of increasing environmental variability, the relationship between ecological changes and transformations in social behaviours is elusive. Here, we explore a possible theoretical approach and methodology for understanding how ecological contexts can influence selection pressures acting on intergroup social behaviours. We focus on the relative advantages and disadvantages of intergroup tolerance in different ecological contexts using agent-based modelling (ABM). We assess the relative costs and benefits of different 'tolerance' levels in between-group interactions on survival and resource exploitation in different environments. The results enable us to infer a potential relationship between ecological changes and proposed changes in between-group behavioural dynamics. We conclude that increasingly harsh environments may have driven changes in hormonal and emotional responses in humans leading to increasing intergroup tolerance, i.e. transformations in social behaviour associated with 'self-domestication'. We argue that changes in intergroup tolerance is a more parsimonious explanation for the emergence of what has been seen as 'modern human behaviour' than changes in hard aspects of cognition or other factors such as cognitive adaptability or population size.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10816-020-09503-5.

Carrying capacity, population density and the later Pleistocene expression of backed artefact manufacturing traditions in Africa

As is the case today, both climate variability and population density influenced human behavioural change in the past. The mechanisms underpinning later Pleistocene human behavioural evolution, however, remain contested. Many complex behaviours evolved in Africa, but early evidence for these behaviours varies both spatially and temporally. Scientists have not been able to explain this flickering pattern, which is present even in sites and regions clearly occupied by Homo sapiens. To explore this pattern, here the presence and frequency of evidence for backed stone artefact production are modelled against climate-driven, time-series population density estimates (Timmermann and Friedrich. 2016 Nature 538, 92. (doi:10.1038/nature19365)), in all known African Late Pleistocene archaeological sites (n = 116 sites, n = 409 assemblages, n = 893 dates). In addition, a moving-window, site density population estimate is included at the scale of southern Africa. Backed stone artefacts are argued in many archaeological contexts to have functioned in elaborate technologies like composite weapons and, in the African Pleistocene, are accepted proxies for cultural complexity. They show a broad but sporadic distribution in Africa, prior to their association with Homo sapiens dispersing into Europe 45-40 ka. Two independent population estimates explain this pattern and potentially implicate the interaction of climate change and demography in the expression of cultural complexity in African Pleistocene Homo sapiens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Sometimes hidden but always there: the assumptions underlying genetic inference of demographic histories

Demographic processes directly affect patterns of genetic variation within contemporary populations as well as future generations, allowing for demographic inference from patterns of both present-day and past genetic variation. Advances in laboratory procedures, sequencing and genotyping technologies in the past decades have resulted in massive increases in high-quality genome-wide genetic data from present-day populations and allowed retrieval of genetic data from archaeological material, also known as ancient DNA. This has resulted in an explosion of work exploring past changes in population size, structure, continuity and movement. However, as genetic processes are highly stochastic, patterns of genetic variation only indirectly reflect demographic histories. As a result, past demographic processes need to be reconstructed using an inferential approach. This usually involves comparing observed patterns of variation with model expectations from theoretical population genetics. A large number of approaches have been developed based on different population genetic models that each come with assumptions about the data and underlying demography. In this article I review some of the key models and assumptions underlying the most commonly used approaches for past demographic inference and their consequences for our ability to link the inferred demographic processes to the archaeological and climate records. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Ancient genomes reveal tropical bovid species in the Tibetan Plateau contributed to the prevalence of hunting game until the late Neolithic

Local wild bovids have been determined to be important prey on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP), where hunting game was a major subsistence strategy until the late Neolithic, when farming lifestyles dominated in the neighboring Loess Plateau. However, the species affiliation and population ecology of these prehistoric wild bovids in the prehistoric NETP remain unknown. Ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis is highly informative in decoding this puzzle. Here, we applied aDNA analysis to fragmented bovid and rhinoceros specimens dating ∼5,200 y B.P. from the Neolithic site of Shannashuzha located in the marginal area of the NETP. Utilizing both whole genomes and mitochondrial DNA, our results demonstrate that the range of the present-day tropical gaur (Bos gaurus) extended as far north as the margins of the NETP during the late Neolithic from ∼29°N to ∼34°N. Furthermore, comparative analysis with zooarchaeological and paleoclimatic evidence indicated that a high summer temperature in the late Neolithic might have facilitated the northward expansion of tropical animals (at least gaur and Sumatran-like rhinoceros) to the NETP. This enriched the diversity of wildlife, thus providing abundant hunting resources for humans and facilitating the exploration of the Tibetan Plateau as one of the last habitats for hunting game in East Asia.

Regional impacts of climate change and its relevance to human evolution

The traditional concept of long and gradual, glacial-interglacial climate changes during the Quaternary has been challenged since the 1980s. High temporal resolution analysis of marine, terrestrial and ice geological archives has identified rapid, millennial- to centennial-scale, and large-amplitude climatic cycles throughout the last few million years. These changes were global but have had contrasting regional impacts on the terrestrial and marine ecosystems, with in some cases strong changes in the high latitudes of both hemispheres but muted changes elsewhere. Such a regionalization has produced environmental barriers and corridors that have probably triggered niche contractions/expansions of hominin populations living in Eurasia and Africa. This article reviews the long- and short-timescale ecosystem changes that have punctuated the last few million years, paying particular attention to the environments of the last 650,000 years, which have witnessed key events in the evolution of our lineage in Africa and Eurasia. This review highlights, for the first time, a contemporaneity between the split between Denisovan and Neanderthals, at ~650-400 ka, and the strong Eurasian ice-sheet expansion down to the Black Sea. This ice expansion could form an ice barrier between Europe and Asia that may have triggered the genetic drift between these two populations.

Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change

Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems

Fifty years ago, Willi Dansgaard and colleagues discovered several abrupt climate change events in Greenland during the last glacial period. Since then, several ice cores retrieved from the Greenland ice sheet have verified the existence of 25 abrupt climate warming events now known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These events are characterized by a rapid 10-15°C warming over a few decades followed by a stable period of centuries or millennia before a gradual return to full glacial conditions. Similar warming events have been identified in other paleo-archives in the Northern hemisphere. These findings triggered wide interest in abrupt climate change and its impact on biological diversity, but ambiguous definitions have constrained our ability to assign biotic responses to the different types of climate change. Here, we provide a coherent definition for different types of climatic change, including 'abrupt climate change', and a summary of past abrupt climate-change events. We then review biotic responses to abrupt climate change, from the genetic to the ecosystem level, and show that abrupt climatic and ecological changes have been instrumental in shaping biodiversity. We also identify open questions, such as what causes species resilience after an abrupt change. However, identifying causal relationships between past climate change and biological responses remains difficult. We need to formalize and unify the definition of abrupt change across disciplines and further investigate past abrupt climate change periods to better anticipate and mitigate the impacts on biodiversity and society wrought by human-made climate change.

High-resolution terrestrial climate, bioclimate and vegetation for the last 120,000 years

The variability of climate has profoundly impacted a wide range of macroecological processes in the Late Quaternary. Our understanding of these has greatly benefited from palaeoclimate simulations, however, high-quality reconstructions of ecologically relevant climatic variables have thus far been limited to a few selected time periods. Here, we present a 0.5° resolution bias-corrected dataset of global monthly temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed, 17 bioclimatic variables, annual net primary productivity, leaf area index and biomes, covering the last 120,000 years at a temporal resolution of 1,000–2,000 years. We combined medium-resolution HadCM3 climate simulations of the last 120,000 years with high-resolution HadAM3H simulations of the last 21,000 years, and modern-era instrumental data. This allows for the temporal variability of small-scale features whilst ensuring consistency with observed climate. Our data make it possible to perform continuous-time analyses at a high spatial resolution for a wide range of climatic and ecological applications - such as habitat and species distribution modelling, dispersal and extinction processes, biogeography and bioanthropology.

Measurement(s)	temperature • precipitation process • vegetation layer • atmospheric wind speed • cloud • humidity
Technology Type(s)	computational modeling technique
Factor Type(s)	geographic location • temporal interval
Sample Characteristic - Environment	climate system
Sample Characteristic - Location	Earth (planet)

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12436484

Homogenization of carnivorous mammal ensembles caused by global range reductions of large-bodied hypercarnivores during the late Quaternary

Carnivorous mammals play crucial roles in ecosystems by influencing prey densities and behaviour, and recycling carrion. Yet, the influence of carnivores on global ecosystems has been affected by extinctions and range contractions throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene (approx. 130 000 years ago to the current). Large-bodied mammals were particularly affected, but how dietary strategies influenced species' susceptibility to geographical range reductions remains unknown. We investigated (i) the importance of dietary strategies in explaining range reductions of carnivorous mammals (greater than or equal to 5% vertebrate meat consumption) and (ii) differences in functional diversity of continental carnivore ensembles by comparing current, known ranges to current, expected ranges under a present-natural counterfactual scenario. The present-natural counterfactual estimates current mammal ranges had modern humans not expanded out of Africa during the Late Pleistocene and were not a main driver of extinctions and range contractions, alongside changing climates. Ranges of large-bodied hypercarnivorous mammals are currently smaller than expected, compared to smaller-bodied carnivorous mammals that consume less vertebrate meat. This resulted in consistent differences in continental functional diversity, whereby current ensembles of carnivorous mammals have undergone homogenization through structural shifts towards smaller-bodied insectivorous and herbivorous species. The magnitude of ensemble structural shifts varied among continents, with Australia experiencing the greatest difference. Weighting functional diversity by species' geographical range sizes caused a threefold greater shift in ensemble centroids than when using presence-absence alone. Conservation efforts should acknowledge current reductions in the potential geographical ranges of large-bodied hypercarnivores and aim to restore functional roles in carnivore ensembles, where possible, across continents.

Future of the human climate niche

We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.