'The Machine Takes Our Jobs Away': The problem of technological unemployment in the work of Chicago sociologist William F. Ogburn

This paper examines the Chicago sociologist William F. Ogburn's (1886-1959) views about technological unemployment, which were intimately connected to his analysis of the social impacts of technological developments and resulting social problems due to cultural lag. We trace the development of his views as seen through his well-known 1922 book, Social Change with Respect to Culture and Original Nature, his important contributions to the President's Research Committee on Social Trends (1933), and his lesser-known pamphlets designed for a broader audience-Living with Machines (1933), You and Machines (1934), and Machines and Tomorrow's World (1938). He used these pamphlets to educate the public about the dangers of new machines and technological unemployment. In doing so, he drew upon sociological analysis in his professional scholarly writings and his long-standing personal interests in social betterment and social reform. Our analysis also calls into question the adequacy of existing scholarship on Ogburn that has emphasized his commitment to a statistical, dispassionate, and "objectivist" approach to social science research. We call for a revised, richer, and more complex view of Ogburn's work and legacy as one of the nation's leading social scientists during the first half of the 20th century.

Impact of digital payment adoption on Indian banking sector efficiency

Combining Data Envelopment Analysis and dynamic panel data methods, we find that adoption of digital payment technologies by Indian banks has helped enhance their cost efficiency. Instead of directly reducing the inputs used in intermediation, the gain in efficiency may be on account of cheaper availability of such inputs when banks go digital. These gains may stem from assimilation into the entire digital payments ecosystem, as opposed to piecemeal adoption of technology. We find both cost and technical efficiencies exhibiting persistence. Banks’ relative asset holdings in the industry, non-performing assets, cost of deposits and returns on advances and equity are other important variables that drive cost efficiency.

Evolution of Sensor Research for Clarifying the Dynamics and Properties of Future Directions

The principal goal of this study is to analyze the evolution of sensor research and technologies from 1990 to 2020 to clarify outlook and future directions. This paper applies network analysis to a large dataset of publications concerning sensor research covering a 30-year period. Results show that the evolution of sensors is based on growing scientific interactions within networks, between different research fields that generate co-evolutionary pathways directed to develop general-purpose and/or specialized technologies, such as wireless sensors, biosensors, fiber-optic, and optical sensors, having manifold applications in industries. These results show new directions of sensor research that can drive R&D investments toward promising technological trajectories of sensors, exhibiting a high potential of growth to support scientific, technological, industrial, and socioeconomic development.

New Technology and Loss of Paid Employment among Older Workers: Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

This study investigates the association between the implementation of new technology in the workplace and the subsequent loss of paid employment among older workers.

METHODS

We estimated the prospective risk of loss of paid employment (register-based) from questions on new technology among 10,320 older workers (≥50 years). To investigate potential differences between work types, analyses were stratified by job function: (1) work with symbols (office, administration, analysis, IT), (2) work with people (people, service, care), (3) work in the field of production (processing, producing or moving things).

RESULTS

The introduction of new technology at the workplace reduced the risk of losing paid employment among older workers working with symbols (risk ratio [RR] 0.74, 95% CI 0.72-0.76) and in the field of production (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.80-0.85), whereas new technology increased this risk among those working with people (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.19-1.26). Being involved in the introduction of new technology and receiving adequate training in its use decreased the risk of loss of paid employment.

CONCLUSIONS

Depending on the context, the introduction of new technology at work associates positively as well as negatively with future labour market participation among older workers. Worker involvement and adequate training in the use of new technology seem to be important for retaining workers in the labour market.

Scientific Developments and New Technological Trajectories in Sensor Research

Scientific developments and new technological trajectories in sensors play an important role in understanding technological and social change. The goal of this study is to develop a scientometric analysis (using scientific documents and patents) to explain the evolution of sensor research and new sensor technologies that are critical to science and society. Results suggest that new directions in sensor research are driving technological trajectories of wireless sensor networks, biosensors and wearable sensors. These findings can help scholars to clarify new paths of technological change in sensors and policymakers to allocate research funds towards research fields and sensor technologies that have a high potential of growth for generating a positive societal impact.

mHealth: Potentials and Risks for Addressing Mental Health and Well-Being Issues Among Nepali Adolescents

Adolescents are slowly being recognized as a generation, worldwide, that may require different policy approaches to improve staggering statistics on their failing well-being, including mental health. By providing the support to allow the next generation to achieve better mental health outcomes, they are going to be more economically successful and the future economic growth of nations can be better assured. Adoption of mobile-based health interventions (e.g., mHealth) has garnered a lot of attention toward this end. While mHealth interventions are growing in popularity, many researchers/policy-makers appear to have neglected assessing potential (indirect) costs/negative consequences from their use. Evidence from the developed world shows strong associations between extensive cell phone use and negative mental health outcomes, but similar research is minimal in developing world contexts. Additionally, the bulk of work on the outcomes of mobile phone use is studied using a unidirectional approach with blinders to front-end motivations. Using primary data from a large-scale, school-based survey of older adolescents in southwestern Nepal (N = 539), this work investigates such a tension between mobile/smartphone usage as a true mobile health (mHealth) opportunity in Nepal or as a potential problem, introducing additional deleterious well-being effects from over-use. Founded in Basic Psychological Needs Theory (BPNT), robust results of analyses using full structural modeling approaches (and traditional regression-based sensitivity analyses) indicate support for the BPNT framework in explaining statistically significant positive associations between bullying and anxiety, as well as, negative associations between bullying and grit, including evidence to support the mediating role of problematic mobile phone use in these relationships. More than 56% of the sample showed indicators of mild to moderate anxiety and over 10% claim experiences of bullying, coupled with over 75% of the sample scoring above the midline of a problematic mobile phone use scale, all of which motivates the relevance of our findings. Potential policy implications of these findings, and mention of other intriguing avenues for future work are further discussed.

Accounting for the Rise of Health Spending and Longevity

We estimate a stochastic life-cycle model of endogenous health spending, asset accumulation and retirement to investigate the causes behind the increase in health spending and longevity in the U.S. over the period 1965-2005. Accounting for changes over time in taxes, transfers, Social Security, income, health insurance, smoking and obesity, and technological progress, we estimate that technological progress is responsible for half of the increase in life expectancy over the period. Substantial growth in health spending over the period is largely the result of growth in economic resources and the generosity of health insurance, with a modest role for medical technological progress. The growth in spending does not come from changes in a single source, but sources jointly interacted to increase spending: complementarity effects explain up to 26.3% of the increase in health spending. Overall, for those born in 1940, the combined changes in resources and health insurance that occurred over the period are valued at 35.7% of lifetime consumption.

GVC transformation and a new investment landscape in the 2020s: Driving forces, directions, and a forward-looking research and policy agenda

Global value chains (GVCs) will undergo substantive transformation in the decade ahead, reshaping the global trade and investment landscape. The change will be driven by five major forces: economic governance realignment, the new industrial revolution, the sustainability endeavor, corporate accountability, and resilience-oriented restructuring. All of this will present challenges and opportunities for firms and states alike, leading to an investment-development paradigm shift. This article discusses the five driving forces for the GVC transformation, projects ten broad trends in the evolution of the global trade and investment landscape, and also presents a forward-looking agenda for multi-dimensional research and policy in the decade ahead. It aims at providing a framework for future research that encourages cross-disciplinary collaboration as well as a structured dialogue between academia and policymakers.

Carrying capacity, population density and the later Pleistocene expression of backed artefact manufacturing traditions in Africa

As is the case today, both climate variability and population density influenced human behavioural change in the past. The mechanisms underpinning later Pleistocene human behavioural evolution, however, remain contested. Many complex behaviours evolved in Africa, but early evidence for these behaviours varies both spatially and temporally. Scientists have not been able to explain this flickering pattern, which is present even in sites and regions clearly occupied by Homo sapiens. To explore this pattern, here the presence and frequency of evidence for backed stone artefact production are modelled against climate-driven, time-series population density estimates (Timmermann and Friedrich. 2016 Nature 538, 92. (doi:10.1038/nature19365)), in all known African Late Pleistocene archaeological sites (n = 116 sites, n = 409 assemblages, n = 893 dates). In addition, a moving-window, site density population estimate is included at the scale of southern Africa. Backed stone artefacts are argued in many archaeological contexts to have functioned in elaborate technologies like composite weapons and, in the African Pleistocene, are accepted proxies for cultural complexity. They show a broad but sporadic distribution in Africa, prior to their association with Homo sapiens dispersing into Europe 45-40 ka. Two independent population estimates explain this pattern and potentially implicate the interaction of climate change and demography in the expression of cultural complexity in African Pleistocene Homo sapiens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Organizational-Based Psychological Ownership on the Intelligent Transformation of Manufacturing Enterprises: Based on the Perspective of Technological Change

The integration and development of next-generation information technology and manufacturing technology have made intelligent transformation an important driving force for the upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. Based on the perspective of technological change, this article sorts out the evolution process of technological change and the intelligent development of manufacturing enterprises from the business level and the management level, respectively. On this basis, it analyzes the formation path of organizational-based psychological ownership in the context of change in detail. Furthermore, the influence and mechanism of the psychological ownership dimension of different organizations on the individual level and the organizational level of the intelligent transformation of manufacturing enterprises are analyzed.

New technologies, potential unemployment and 'nescience economy' during and after the 2020 economic crisis

The coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis in 2020 are accelerating digital transformation. During and after the crisis, there are opportunities and needs for remote work facilities, online services, delivery drones, etc. We discuss how unmanned technologies can cause a long-term employment decrease, and why compensation mechanisms may not work. Using the internationally comparable Frey-Osborne methodology, we estimated that less than a third of employees in Russia work in professions with a high automation probability. Some of these professions can suffer the most during quarantine measures; employment in traditional services can be significantly reduced. By 2030, about half of the jobs in the world and a little less in Russia will need to adapt during the fourth industrial revolution because they are engaged in routine, potentially automated activities. In the regions, specializing in manufacturing, this value is higher; the lowest risk is in the largest agglomerations with a high share of digital economy, greater and diverse labour markets. Accelerating technological change can lead to a long-term mismatch between the exponential increase in automation rate and compensating effects of retraining, new jobs creation and other labour market adaptation mechanisms. Some people will not be ready for a life-long learning and competition with robots, and accordingly there is a possibility of their technological exclusion. The term "nescience economy" and corresponding assessment method were proposed. Using an econometric model, we identified factors that reduce these risks: human capital concentration, favourable business climate, high quality of life and ICT development. Based on these factors, some recommendations for authorities were proposed in the conclusion.

Paying the Price for a Broken Healthcare System: Rethinking Employment, Labor, and Work in a Post-Pandemic World

Even before the word pandemic reentered the lexicon, pressures stemming from institutional and technological change challenged policymakers and provider organizations to rethink core features of the manner in which we deliver healthcare. This essay introduces a special issue devoted to the consequences of change on the healthcare sector's varied stakeholders. It does so in the context of our eventual, post-coronavirus reemergence and a renewed interest in remaking the healthcare system in light of its obvious deficiencies. Towards that end, we introduce the five papers composing this special issue, each of which informs the ways that change actually transpires in healthcare organizations and systems.

Building the technological European Community through education: European mobility and training programmes in the 1980s

The Community Action Programme for Education and Training for Technology (COMETT) played a key role in paving the way for increased cooperation between the member states of the European Community (EC) in the field of education and in the promotion of intra-Europe mobility. In this article, COMETT is considered as a non-traditional education and training programme for solving economic challenges in the context of technological change that was focused on the training of a highly skilled workforce. The process of setting the agenda for COMETT is studied through an analysis of official EC policy documents and archival material from the EU's historical archives in Florence. Our analysis suggests that the challenge posed by new information technologies acted as a catalyst for a new approach to education governance that was based on closer cooperation between European universities and industry. Promoting intra-Europe mobility among highly skilled workers and students was a key part of the programme, which defined an economic and social strategy for Europe in response to technological change. Educational and social goals were secondary in the design and implementation of the COMETT programme, which, first and foremost, was motivated by the EC agenda to boost the competitiveness of European industry.

Hitting a moving target: digital transformation and welfare technology in Swedish municipal eldercare

INTRODUCTION

This article contributes to the discussion on digital transformation and welfare technology in municipal eldercare. The aim of welfare technology solutions is to exceed the current welfare system and to meet the challenges of an ageing population through technological innovations and applications that help people to better cope with health issues and strengthen their participation, activity and independence regarding their own healthcare.

METHODS

First, this article outlines a number of different perspectives on technological and social change. Against this backdrop, this article portrays the challenges faced by Swedish municipal eldercare organizations due to the moving targets of digital transformation and the development of welfare technologies.

CONCLUSION

In this context, eldercare organizations are at risk of becoming victims of the fast pace at which technology develops and the rhetoric of technological determinism; they may try to pursue the latest technological innovation at the expense of their stakeholders' needs. The implementation and deployment of welfare technology become a real-world social experiment. Without proper tools for evaluation, welfare technology might be implemented and deployed as an end in itself, instead of as means for better ageing or improved eldercare. This article concludes by framing a set of questions to help increase the understanding of welfare technology implementation and deployment in order to mitigate risks and improve outcomes. IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION Analysis of different perspectives regarding technological and social change. Identification of the challenges faced by municipal eldercare organizations due to digital transformation. Presentation of evaluation questions to increase the understanding of welfare technology implementation and deployment in order to mitigate risks and improve outcomes.

Financialization impedes climate change mitigation: Evidence from the early American solar industry

The article investigates how financialization impedes climate change mitigation by examining its effects on the early history of one low-carbon industry, solar photovoltaics in the United States. The industry grew rapidly in the 1970s, as large financial conglomerates acquired independent firms. While providing needed financial support, conglomerates changed the focus from existing markets in consumer applications toward a future utility market that never materialized. Concentration of the industry also left it vulnerable to the corporate restructuring of the 1980s, when the conglomerates were dismantled and solar divisions were pared back or sold off to foreign firms. Both the move toward conglomeration, when corporations became managed as stock portfolios, and its subsequent reversal were the result of increased financial dominance over corporate governance. The American case is contrasted with the more successful case of Japan, where these changes to corporate governance did not occur. Insulated from shareholder pressure and financial turbulence, Japanese photovoltaics manufacturers continued to expand investment throughout the 1980s when their American rivals were cutting back. The study is informed by Joseph Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction and Hyman Minsky's theory of financialization, along with economic sociology. By highlighting the tenuous and conflicting relation between finance and production that shaped the early history of the photovoltaics industry, the article raises doubts about the prevailing approach to mitigate climate change through carbon pricing. Given the uncertainty of innovation and the ease of speculation, it will do little to spur low-carbon technology development without financial structures supporting patient capital.

Heterogeneity in the Effect of Common Shocks on Healthcare Expenditure Growth

Healthcare expenditure growth is affected by important unobserved common shocks such as technological innovation, changes in sociological factors, shifts in preferences, and the epidemiology of diseases. While common factors impact in principle all countries, their effect is likely to differ across countries. To allow for unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of common shocks, we estimate a panel data model of healthcare expenditure growth in 34 OECD countries over the years 1980 to 2012, where the usual fixed or random effects are replaced by a multifactor error structure. We address model uncertainty with Bayesian model averaging, to identify a small set of robust expenditure drivers from 43 potential candidates. We establish 16 significant drivers of healthcare expenditure growth, including growth in GDP per capita and in insurance premiums, changes in financing arrangements and some institutional characteristics, expenditures on pharmaceuticals, population ageing, costs of health administration, and inpatient care. Our approach allows us to provide robust evidence to policy makers on the drivers that were most strongly associated with the growth in healthcare expenditures over the past 32 years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Invention as a combinatorial process: evidence from US patents

Invention has been commonly conceptualized as a search over a space of combinatorial possibilities. Despite the existence of a rich literature, spanning a variety of disciplines, elaborating on the recombinant nature of invention, we lack a formal and quantitative characterization of the combinatorial process underpinning inventive activity. Here, we use US patent records dating from 1790 to 2010 to formally characterize invention as a combinatorial process. To do this, we treat patented inventions as carriers of technologies and avail ourselves of the elaborate system of technology codes used by the United States Patent and Trademark Office to classify the technologies responsible for an invention's novelty. We find that the combinatorial inventive process exhibits an invariant rate of ‘exploitation’ (refinements of existing combinations of technologies) and ‘exploration’ (the development of new technological combinations). This combinatorial dynamic contrasts sharply with the creation of new technological capabilities—the building blocks to be combined—that has significantly slowed down. We also find that, notwithstanding the very reduced rate at which new technologies are introduced, the generation of novel technological combinations engenders a practically infinite space of technological configurations.

Industrial Characteristics and Employment of Older Manufacturing Workers in the Early-Twentieth-Century United States

This study explores how industry-specific technological, organizational, and managerial features affected the employment of old male manufacturing workers in the early twentieth-century United States. Industrial characteristics favorably related to the employment of old industrial workers include high labor productivity, less capital- and material-intensive production, short workdays, low intensity of work, high job flexibility, and formalized employment relationship. Results show that aged industrial workers were heavily concentrated in "unfavorable" industries, suggesting that the contemporary argument of "industrial scrap heap" was applicable for most of the manufacturing workers in the early twentieth century United States.

Awaiting the Second Big Data Revolution: From Digital Noise to Value Creation

“Big data”—the collection of vast quantities of data about individual behavior via online, mobile, and other data-driven services—has been heralded as the agent of a third industrial revolution—one with raw materials measured in bits, rather than tons of steel or barrels of oil. Yet the industrial revolution transformed not just how firms made things, but the fundamental approach to value creation in industrial economies. To date, big data has not achieved this distinction. Instead, today’s successful big data business models largely use data to scale old modes of value creation, rather than invent new ones altogether. Moreover, today’s big data cannot deliver the promised revolution. In this way, today’s big data landscape resembles the early phases of the first industrial revolution, rather than the culmination of the second a century later. Realizing the second big data revolution will require fundamentally different kinds of data, different innovations, and different business models than those seen to date. That fact has profound consequences for the kinds of investments and innovations firms must seek, and the economic, political, and social consequences that those innovations portend.

Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions

There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.