Selection of antigenically advanced variants of seasonal influenza viruses

Assessment of the antigenic evolution of a clade 6B.1 human H1N1pdm influenza virus revealed differences between ferret and human convalescent sera

BACKGROUND

Influenza viruses continually acquire mutations in the antigenic epitopes of their major viral antigen, the surface glycoprotein haemagglutinin (HA), allowing evasion from immunity in humans induced upon prior influenza virus infections or vaccinations. Consequently, the influenza strains used for vaccine production must be updated frequently.

METHODS

To better understand the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses, we introduced random mutations into the HA head region (where the immunodominant epitopes are located) of a pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) virus from 2015 and incubated it with various human sera collected in 2015-2016. Mutants not neutralized by the human sera were sequenced and further characterized for their haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers with human sera and with ferret sera raised to H1N1pdm viruses from 2009 to 2015.

FINDINGS

The largest antigenic changes were conferred by mutations at HA amino acid position 187; interestingly, these antigenic changes were recognized by human, but not by ferret serum. H1N1pdm viruses with amino acid changes at position 187 were very rare until the end of 2018, but have become more frequent since; in fact, the D187A amino acid change is one of the defining changes of clade 6B.1A.5a.1 viruses, which emerged in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings indicate that amino acid substitutions in H1N1pdm epitopes may be recognized by human sera, but not by homologous ferret sera.

FUNDING

This project was supported by funding from the NIAID-funded Center for Research on Influenza Pathogenesis (CRIP, HHSN272201400008C).

An atlas of continuous adaptive evolution in endemic human viruses

Through antigenic evolution, viruses such as seasonal influenza evade recognition by neutralizing antibodies. This means that a person with antibodies well tuned to an initial infection will not be protected against the same virus years later and that vaccine-mediated protection will decay. To expand our understanding of which endemic human viruses evolve in this fashion, we assess adaptive evolution across the genome of 28 endemic viruses spanning a wide range of viral families and transmission modes. Surface proteins consistently show the highest rates of adaptation, and ten viruses in this panel are estimated to undergo antigenic evolution to selectively fix mutations that enable the escape of prior immunity. Thus, antibody evasion is not an uncommon evolutionary strategy among human viruses, and monitoring this evolution will inform future vaccine efforts. Additionally, by comparing overall amino acid substitution rates, we show that SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating protein-coding changes at substantially faster rates than endemic viruses.

Influenza H3 hemagglutinin vaccine with scrambled immunodominant epitopes elicits antibodies directed toward immunosubdominant head epitopes

Vaccination is the most effective countermeasure to reduce the severity of influenza. Current seasonal influenza vaccines mainly elicit humoral immunity targeting hemagglutinin (HA). In particular, the amino acid residues around the receptor-binding site in the HA head domain are predominantly targeted by humoral immunity as "immunodominant" epitopes. However, mutations readily accumulate in the head domain due to high plasticity, resulting in antigenic drift and vaccine mismatch, particularly with influenza A (H3N2) viruses. A vaccine strategy that targets more conserved immunosubdominant epitopes is required to attain a universal vaccine. Here, we designed an H3 HA vaccine antigen with various amino acids at immunodominant epitopes of the HA head domain, termed scrambled HA (scrHA). In ferrets, scrHA vaccination induced lower serum neutralizing antibody levels against homologous virus compared with wild-type (WT) HA vaccination; however, similar levels of moderately neutralizing titers against antigenically distinct H3N2 viruses were observed. Ferrets vaccinated with scrHA twice and then challenged with homologous or heterologous virus showed the same level of reduced virus shedding in nasal swabs as WT HA-vaccinated animals but reduced body temperature increase, whereas WT HA-vaccinated ferrets exhibited body temperature increases similar to those of mock-vaccinated animals. scrHA elicited antibodies against HA immunodominant and -subdominant epitopes at lower and higher levels, respectively, than WT HA vaccination, whereas antistalk antibodies were induced at the same level for both groups, suggesting scrHA-induced redirection from immunodominant to immunosubdominant head epitopes. scrHA vaccination thus induced broader coverage than WT HA vaccination by diluting out the immunodominancy of HA head epitopes. IMPORTANCE Current influenza vaccines mainly elicit antibodies that target the immunodominant head domain, where strain-specific mutations rapidly accumulate, resulting in frequent antigenic drift and vaccine mismatch. Targeting conserved immunosubdominant epitopes is essential to attain a universal vaccine. Our findings with the scrHA developed in this study suggest that designing vaccine antigens that "dilute out" the immunodominancy of the head epitopes may be an effective strategy to induce conserved immunosubdominant epitope-based immune responses.

Rational design of a booster vaccine against COVID-19 based on antigenic distance

Current COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against symptomatic disease, but repeated booster doses using vaccines based on the ancestral strain offer limited additional protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). To address this, we used antigenic distance to in silico select optimized booster vaccine seed strains effective against both current and future VOCs. Our model suggests that a SARS-CoV-1-based booster vaccine has the potential to cover a broader range of VOCs. Candidate vaccines including the spike protein from ancestral SARS-CoV-2, Delta, Omicron (BA.1), SARS-CoV-1, or MERS-CoV were experimentally evaluated in mice following two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine. The SARS-CoV-1-based booster vaccine outperformed other candidates in terms of neutralizing antibody breadth and duration, as well as protective activity against Omicron (BA.2) challenge. This study suggests a unique strategy for selecting booster vaccines based on antigenic distance, which may be useful in designing future booster vaccines as new SARS-CoV-2 variants emerge.

Airborne fine particles drive H1N1 viruses deep into the lower respiratory tract and distant organs

Mounting data suggest that environmental pollution due to airborne fine particles (AFPs) increases the occurrence and severity of respiratory virus infection in humans. However, it is unclear whether and how interactions with AFPs alter viral infection and distribution. We report synergetic effects between various AFPs and the H1N1 virus, regulated by physicochemical properties of the AFPs. Unlike infection caused by virus alone, AFPs facilitated the internalization of virus through a receptor-independent pathway. Moreover, AFPs promoted the budding and dispersal of progeny virions, likely mediated by lipid rafts in the host plasma membrane. Infected animal models demonstrated that AFPs favored penetration of the H1N1 virus into the distal lung, and its translocation into extrapulmonary organs including the liver, spleen, and kidney, thus causing severe local and systemic disorders. Our findings revealed a key role of AFPs in driving viral infection throughout the respiratory tract and beyond. These insights entail stronger air quality management and air pollution reduction policies.

Structural Consequences of Antigenic Variants of Human A/H3N2 Influenza Viruses

The genetic basis of antigenic drift of human A/H3N2 influenza virus is crucial to understanding the constraints of influenza evolution and determinants of vaccine escape. Amino acid changes at only seven positions near the receptor binding site of the surface hemagglutinin protein have been shown to be responsible for the major antigenic changes for over forty years. Experimental structures of HA are now available for the majority of the observed antigenic clusters of A/H3N2. An analysis of the HA structures of these viruses reveals the likely consequences of these mutations on the structure of HA and thus, provides a structural basis for the antigenic changes seen in human influenza viruses.

Characterization of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses Isolated in the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 Influenza Seasons in Japan

The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus that emerged in 2009 causes seasonal epidemic worldwide. The virus acquired several amino acid substitutions that were responsible for antigenic drift until the 2018-2019 influenza season. Viruses possessing mutations in the NA and PA proteins that cause reduced susceptibility to NA inhibitors and baloxavir marboxil, respectively, have been detected after antiviral treatment, albeit infrequently. Here, we analyzed HA, NA, and PA sequences derived from A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses that were isolated during the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 influenza seasons in Japan. We found that A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses possessing the D187A and Q189E substitutions in HA emerged and dominated during the 2019-2020 season; these substitutions in the antigenic site Sb, a high potency neutralizing antibody-eliciting site for humans, changed the antigenicity of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Furthermore, we found that isolates possessing the N156K substitution, which was predicted to affect the antigenicity of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus at the laboratory level, were detected at a frequency of 1.0% in the 2018-2019 season but 10.1% in the 2019-2020 season. These findings indicate that two kinds of antigenically drifted viruses-N156K and D187A/Q189E viruses-co-circulated during the 2019-2020 influenza season in Japan.

Immune Escape Adaptive Mutations in Hemagglutinin Are Responsible for the Antigenic Drift of Eurasian Avian-Like H1N1 Swine Influenza Viruses

The continuous antigenic variation of influenza A viruses remains a major hurdle for vaccine selection; however, the molecular determinants and mechanisms of antigenic change remain largely unknown. In this study, two escape mutants were generated by serial passages of the Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus (EA H1N1 SIV) A/swine/Henan/11/2005 (HeN11) in the presence of two neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, which were designated HeN11-2B6-P5 and HeN11-4C7-P8, respectively. The HeN11-2B6-P5 mutant simultaneously harbored the N190D and I230M substitutions in HA, whereas HeN11-4C7-P8 harbored the M269R substitution in HA (H3 numbering). The effects of each of these substitutions on viral antigenicity were determined by measuring the neutralization and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers with mAbs and polyclonal sera raised against the representative viruses. The results indicate that residues 190 and 269 are key determinants of viral antigenic variation. In particular, the N190D mutation had the greatest antigenic impact, as determined by the HI assay. Further studies showed that both HeN11-2B6-P5 and HeN11-4C7-P8 maintained the receptor-binding specificity of the parent virus, although the single mutation N190D decreased the binding affinity for the human-type receptor. The replicative ability in vitro of HeN11-2B6-P5 was increased, whereas that of HeN11-4C7-P8 was decreased. These findings extend our understanding of the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses under immune pressure and provide insights into the functional effects of amino acid substitutions near the receptor-binding site and the interplay among receptor binding, viral replication, and antigenic drift.

IMPORTANCE The antigenic changes that occur continually in the evolution of influenza A viruses remain a great challenge for the effective control of disease outbreaks. Here, we identified three amino acid substitutions (at positions 190, 230, and 269) in the HA of EA H1N1 SIVs that determine viral antigenicity and result in escape from neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. All three of these substitutions have emerged in nature. Of note, residues 190 and 230 have synergistic effects on receptor binding and antigenicity. Our findings provide a better understanding of the functional effects of amino acid substitutions in HA and their consequences for the antigenic drift of influenza viruses.

Continued evolution of H6 avian influenza viruses isolated from farms in China between 2014 and 2018

H6 avian influenza virus (AIV) is one of the most prevalent AIV subtypes in the world. Our previous studies have demonstrated that H6 AIVs isolated from live poultry markets pose a potential threat to human health. In recent years, increasing number of H6 AIVs has been constantly isolated from poultry farms. In order to understand the biological characteristics of H6 AIVs in the context of farms, here, we analyzed the phylogenetic relationships, antigenicity, replication in mice and receptor binding properties of H6 AIVs isolated from farms in China between 2014 and 2018. Phylogenetic analysis showed that 19 different genotypes were formed among 20 representative H6 viruses. Notably, the internal genes of these H6 viruses exhibited complicated relationships with different subtypes of AIVs worldwide, indicating that these viruses are the products of complex and frequent reassortment events. Antigenic analysis revealed that 13 viruses tested were divided into three antigenic groups. 10 viruses examined could all replicate in the respiratory organs of infected mice without prior adaptation. Receptor binding analysis demonstrated that some of the H6 AIVs bound to both α-2, 3-linked glycans (avian-type receptor) and α-2, 6-linked glycans (human-type receptor), thereby posing a potential threat to human health. Together, these findings revealed the prevalence, complicated genetic evolution, diverse antigenicity, and dual receptor binding specificity of H6 AIVs in the settings of poultry farms, which emphasize the importance to continuously monitor the evolution and biological properties of H6 AIVs in nature.

Antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses

Antigenic characterization of emerging and re-emerging viruses is necessary for the prevention of and response to outbreaks, evaluation of infection mechanisms, understanding of virus evolution, and selection of strains for vaccine development. Primary analytic methods, including enzyme-linked immunosorbent/lectin assays, hemagglutination inhibition, neuraminidase inhibition, micro-neutralization assays, and antigenic cartography, have been widely used in the field of influenza research. These techniques have been improved upon over time for increased analytical capacity, and some have been mobilized for the rapid characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as well as its variants, facilitating the development of highly effective vaccines within 1 year of the initially reported outbreak. While great strides have been made for evaluating the antigenic properties of these viruses, multiple challenges prevent efficient vaccine strain selection and accurate assessment. For influenza, these barriers include the requirement for a large virus quantity to perform the assays, more than what can typically be provided by the clinical samples alone, cell- or egg-adapted mutations that can cause antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and circulating viruses, and up to a 6-month duration of vaccine development after vaccine strain selection, which allows viruses to continue evolving with potential for antigenic drift and, thus, antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and the emerging epidemic strain. SARS-CoV-2 characterization has faced similar challenges with the additional barrier of the need for facilities with high biosafety levels due to its infectious nature. In this study, we review the primary analytic methods used for antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and discuss the barriers of these methods and current developments for addressing these challenges.

Bivalent H1 and H3 COBRA Recombinant Hemagglutinin Vaccines Elicit Seroprotective Antibodies against H1N1 and H3N2 Influenza Viruses from 2009 to 2019

Commercial influenza virus vaccines often elicit strain-specific immune responses and have difficulties preventing illness caused by antigenically drifted viral variants. In the last 20 years, the H3N2 component of the annual vaccine has been updated nearly twice as often as the H1N1 component, and in 2019, a mismatch between the wild-type (WT) H3N2 vaccine strain and circulating H3N2 influenza strains led to a vaccine efficacy of ∼9%. Modern methods of developing computationally optimized broadly reactive antigens (COBRAs) for H3N2 influenza viruses utilize current viral surveillance information to design more broadly reactive vaccine antigens. Here, 7 new recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA) H3 COBRA hemagglutinin (HA) antigens were evaluated in mice. Subsequently, two candidates, J4 and NG2, were selected for further testing in influenza-preimmune animals based on their ability to elicit broadly reactive antibodies against antigenically drifted H3N2 viral isolates. In the preimmune model, monovalent formulations of J4 and NG2 elicited broadly reactive antibodies against recently circulating H3N2 influenza viruses from 2019. Bivalent mixtures of COBRA H1 and H3 rHA, Y2 + J4, and Y2 + NG2 outperformed multiple WT H1+H3 bivalent rHA mixtures by eliciting seroprotective antibodies against H1N1 and H3N2 isolates from 2009 to 2019. Overall, the newly generated COBRA HA antigens, namely, Y2, J4, and NG2, had the ability to induce broadly reactive antibodies in influenza-naive and preimmune animals in both monovalent and bivalent formulations, and these antigens outperformed H1 and H3 WT rHA vaccine antigens by eliciting seroprotective antibodies against panels of antigenically drifted historical H1N1 and H3N2 vaccine strains from 2009 to 2019. IMPORTANCE Standard-of-care influenza virus vaccines are composed of a mixture of antigens from different influenza viral subtypes. For the first time, lead COBRA H1 and H3 HA antigens, formulated as a bivalent vaccine, have been investigated in animals with preexisting immunity to influenza viruses. The cocktail of COBRA HA antigens elicited more broadly reactive anti-HA antibodies than those elicited by a comparator bivalent wild-type HA vaccine against H1 and H3 influenza viruses isolated between 2009 and 2019.

Inferring the intrinsic mutational fitness landscape of influenzalike evolving antigens from temporally ordered sequence data

There still are no effective long-term protective vaccines against viruses that continuously evolve under immune pressure such as seasonal influenza, which has caused, and can cause, devastating epidemics in the human population. To find such a broadly protective immunization strategy, it is useful to know how easily the virus can escape via mutation from specific antibody responses. This information is encoded in the fitness landscape of the viral proteins (i.e., knowledge of the viral fitness as a function of sequence). Here we present a computational method to infer the intrinsic mutational fitness landscape of influenzalike evolving antigens from yearly sequence data. We test inference performance with computer-generated sequence data that are based on stochastic simulations mimicking basic features of immune-driven viral evolution. Although the numerically simulated model does create a phylogeny based on the allowed mutations, the inference scheme does not use this information. This provides a contrast to other methods that rely on reconstruction of phylogenetic trees. Our method just needs a sufficient number of samples over multiple years. With our method, we are able to infer single as well as pairwise mutational fitness effects from the simulated sequence time series for short antigenic proteins. Our fitness inference approach may have potential future use for the design of immunization protocols by identifying intrinsically vulnerable immune target combinations on antigens that evolve under immune-driven selection. In the future, this approach may be applied to influenza and other novel viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, which evolves and, like influenza, might continue to escape the natural and vaccine-mediated immune pressures.

H3N2 Influenza Viruses with 12- or 16-Amino Acid Deletions in the Receptor-Binding Region of Their Hemagglutinin Protein

Human influenza viruses evade host immune responses by accumulating mutations around the receptor-binding region of the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, which is composed of three key elements, the 130-loop, the 190-helix, and the 220-loop. Here, we characterized two human H3N2 influenza viruses with 12- and 16-amino acid deletions around the HA receptor-binding site that were isolated after antigenic selection of mutated H3N2 viruses. Structural modeling suggested that the 12-amino acid deletion eliminated the 190-helix. The 16-amino acid deletion comprises two stretches of 11- and 5-amino acid deletions. As the result of a frameshift, “novel” amino acids (not found in wild-type HA at these positions) are encoded between the deleted regions. Interestingly, structural modeling predicted that the novel sequence forms a structure resembling the 190-helix. However, compared to wild-type HA, the 16-amino acid deletion mutant lacks two antiparallel beta-sheets that connect the 190-helix and the 220-loop in wild-type HA. Nonetheless, both HA deletion mutants replicated in mammalian cells, and the 16-amino acid deletion mutant (with a remodeled 190-helix) also replicated in Syrian hamsters, albeit at low titers. Wild-type virus bound preferentially to α2,6-linked sialic acids, whereas both mutants gained affinity for α2,3-linked sialic acids. Moreover, the 12- and 16-amino acid deletions may affect the antigenic properties of the viruses. Thus, viruses with sizeable deletions around the HA receptor-binding site are viable but may display altered sialic acid preferences, altered antigenic properties, and attenuated replicative ability in cultured cells and virulence in Syrian hamsters.

Antigenic evolution of human influenza H3N2 neuraminidase is constrained by charge balancing

As one of the main influenza antigens, neuraminidase (NA) in H3N2 virus has evolved extensively for more than 50 years due to continuous immune pressure. While NA has recently emerged as an effective vaccine target, biophysical constraints on the antigenic evolution of NA remain largely elusive. Here, we apply combinatorial mutagenesis and next-generation sequencing to characterize the local fitness landscape in an antigenic region of NA in six different human H3N2 strains that were isolated around 10 years apart. The local fitness landscape correlates well among strains and the pairwise epistasis is highly conserved. Our analysis further demonstrates that local net charge governs the pairwise epistasis in this antigenic region. In addition, we show that residue coevolution in this antigenic region is correlated with the pairwise epistasis between charge states. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of quantifying epistasis and the underlying biophysical constraint for building a model of influenza evolution.

In Vivo Therapy with M2e-Specific IgG Selects for an Influenza A Virus Mutant with Delayed Matrix Protein 2 Expression

The ectodomain of matrix protein 2 (M2e) of influenza A viruses is a universal influenza A vaccine candidate. Here, we report potential evasion strategies of influenza A viruses under in vivo passive anti-M2e IgG immune selection pressure in severe combined immune-deficient (SCID) mice. A/Puerto Rico/8/34-infected SCID mice were treated with the M2e-specific mouse IgG monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) MAb 65 (IgG2a) or MAb 37 (IgG1), which recognize amino acids 5 to 15 in M2e, or with MAb 148 (IgG1), which binds to the invariant N terminus of M2e. Treatment of challenged SCID mice with any of these MAbs significantly prolonged survival compared to isotype control IgG treatment. Furthermore, M2e-specific IgG2a protected significantly better than IgG1, and even resulted in virus clearance in some of the SCID mice. Deep sequencing analysis of viral RNA isolated at different time points after treatment revealed that the sequence variation in M2e was limited to P10H/L and/or I11T in anti-M2e MAb-treated mice. Remarkably, in half of the samples isolated from moribund MAb 37-treated mice and in all MAb 148-treated mice, virus was isolated with a wild-type M2 sequence but with nonsynonymous mutations in the polymerases and/or the hemagglutinin genes. Some of these mutations were associated with delayed M2 and other viral gene expression and with increased resistance to anti-M2e MAb treatment of SCID mice. Treatment with M2e-specific MAbs thus selects for viruses with limited variation in M2e. Importantly, influenza A viruses may also undergo an alternative escape route by acquiring mutations that result in delayed wild-type M2 expression. IMPORTANCE Broadly protective influenza vaccine candidates may have a higher barrier to immune evasion compared to conventional influenza vaccines. We used Illumina MiSeq deep sequence analysis to study the mutational patterns in A/Puerto Rico/8/34 viruses that evolve in chronically infected SCID mice that were treated with different M2e-specific MAbs. We show that under these circumstances, viruses emerged in vivo with mutations in M2e that were limited to positions 10 and 11. Moreover, we discovered an alternative route for anti-M2e antibody immune escape, in which a virus is selected with wild-type M2e but with mutations in other gene segments that result in delayed M2 and other viral protein expression. Delayed expression of the viral antigen that is targeted by a protective antibody thus represents an influenza virus immune escape mechanism that does not involve epitope alterations.

Variation in the HA antigenicity of A(H1N1)pdm09-related swine influenza viruses

Since the influenza pandemic in 2009, the causative agent 'A(H1N1)pdm09 virus', has been circulating in both human and swine populations. Although phylogenetic analyses of the haemagglutinin (HA) gene segment have revealed broader genetic diversity of A(H1N1)pdm09-related swine influenza A viruses (swIAVs) compared with human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, it remains unclear whether the genetic diversity reflects the antigenic differences in HA. To assess the impact of the diversity of the HA gene of A(H1N1)pdm09-related swIAVs on HA antigenicity, we characterized 12 swIAVs isolated in Japan from 2013 to 2018. We used a ferret antiserum and a panel of anti-HA mouse monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) raised against an early A(H1N1)pdm09 isolate. The neutralization assay with the ferret antiserum revealed that five of the 12 swIAVs were significantly different in their HA antigenicity from the early A(H1N1)pdm09 isolate. The mAbs also showed differential neutralization patterns depending on the swIAV strains. In addition, the single amino acid substitution at position 190 of HA, which was found in one of the five antigenically different swIAVs but not in human isolates, was shown to be one of the critical determinants for the antigenic difference of swIAV HAs. Two potential N-glycosylation sites at amino acid positions 185 and 276 of the HA molecule were identified in two antigenically different swIAVs. These results indicated that the genetic diversity of HA in the A(H1N1)pdm09-related swIAVs is associated with their HA antigenic variation. Our findings highlighted the need for surveillance to monitor the emergence of swIAV antigenic variants with public health importance.

Plasticity of the Influenza Virus H5 HA Protein

The HA protein of influenza A viruses is the major viral antigen. In this study, we simultaneously introduced mutations at 17 amino acid positions of an H5 HA expected to affect antigenicity. Viruses with ≥13 amino acid changes in HA were viable, and some had altered antigenic properties. H5 HA can therefore accommodate many mutations in regions that affect antigenicity. The substantial plasticity of H5 HA may facilitate the emergence of novel antigenic variants.

Since the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of the H5 subtype, the major viral antigen, hemagglutinin (HA), has undergone constant evolution, resulting in numerous genetic and antigenic (sub)clades. To explore the consequences of amino acid changes at sites that may affect the antigenicity of H5 viruses, we simultaneously mutated 17 amino acid positions of an H5 HA by using a synthetic gene library that, theoretically, encodes all combinations of the 20 amino acids at the 17 positions. All 251 mutant viruses sequenced possessed ≥13 amino acid substitutions in HA, demonstrating that the targeted sites can accommodate a substantial number of mutations. Selection with ferret sera raised against H5 viruses of different clades resulted in the isolation of 39 genotypes. Further analysis of seven variants demonstrated that they were antigenically different from the parental virus and replicated efficiently in mammalian cells. Our data demonstrate the substantial plasticity of the influenza virus H5 HA protein, which may lead to novel antigenic variants.

Longitudinal sampling is required to maximize detection of intrahost A/H3N2 virus variants

Seasonal human influenza viruses continually change antigenically to escape from neutralizing antibodies. It remains unclear how genetic variation in the intrahost virus population and selection at the level of individual hosts translates to the fast-paced evolution observed at the global level because emerging intrahost antigenic variants are rarely detected. We tracked intrahost variants in the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase surface proteins using longitudinally collected samples from 52 patients infected by A/H3N2 influenza virus, mostly young children, who received oseltamivir treatment. We identified emerging putative antigenic variants and oseltamivir-resistant variants, most of which remained detectable in samples collected at subsequent days, and identified variants that emerged intrahost immediately prior to increases in global rates. In contrast to most putative antigenic variants, oseltamivir-resistant variants rapidly increased to high frequencies in the virus population. Importantly, the majority of putative antigenic variants and oseltamivir-resistant variants were first detectable four or more days after onset of symptoms or start of treatment, respectively. Our observations demonstrate that de novo variants emerge, and may be positively selected, during the course of infection. Additionally, based on the 4–7 days post-treatment delay in emergence of oseltamivir-resistant variants in six out of the eight individuals with such variants, we find that limiting sample collection for routine surveillance and diagnostic testing to early timepoints after onset of symptoms can potentially preclude detection of emerging, positively selected variants.

Preadaptation of pandemic GII.4 noroviruses in unsampled virus reservoirs years before emergence

The control of re-occurring pandemic pathogens requires understanding the origins of new pandemic variants and the factors that drive their global spread. This is especially important for GII.4 norovirus, where vaccines under development offer promise to prevent hundreds of millions of annual gastroenteritis cases. Previous studies have hypothesized that new GII.4 pandemic viruses arise when previously circulating pandemic or pre-pandemic variants undergo substitutions in antigenic regions that enable evasion of host population immunity, as described by conventional models of antigenic drift. In contrast, we show here that the acquisition of new genetic and antigenic characteristics cannot be the proximal driver of new pandemics. Pandemic GII.4 viruses diversify and spread over wide geographical areas over several years prior to simultaneous pandemic emergence of multiple lineages, indicating that the necessary sequence changes must have occurred before diversification, years prior to pandemic emergence. We confirm this result through serological assays of reconstructed ancestral virus capsids, demonstrating that by 2003, the ancestral 2012 pandemic strain had already acquired the antigenic characteristics that allowed it to evade prevailing population immunity against the previous 2009 pandemic variant. These results provide strong evidence that viral genetic changes are necessary but not sufficient for GII.4 pandemic spread. Instead, we suggest that it is changes in host population immunity that enable pandemic spread of an antigenically preadapted GII.4 variant. These results indicate that predicting future GII.4 pandemic variants will require surveillance of currently unsampled reservoir populations. Furthermore, a broadly acting GII.4 vaccine will be critical to prevent future pandemics.

Immune Escape Adaptive Mutations in the H7N9 Avian Influenza Hemagglutinin Protein Increase Virus Replication Fitness and Decrease Pandemic Potential

H7N9 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) continue to evolve and remain a huge threat to human health and the poultry industry. Previously, serially passaging the H7N9 A/Anhui/1/2013 virus in the presence of homologous ferret antiserum resulted in immune escape viruses containing amino acid substitutions alanine to threonine at residues 125 (A125T) and 151 (A151T) and leucine to glutamine at residue 217 (L217Q) in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein. These HA mutations have also been found in field isolates in 2019. To investigate the potential threat of serum escape mutant viruses to humans and poultry, the impact of these HA substitutions, either individually or in combination, on receptor binding, pH of fusion, thermal stability, and virus replication were investigated. Our results showed the serum escape mutant formed large plaques in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells and grew robustly in vitro and in ovo They had a lower pH of fusion and increased thermal stability. Of note, the serum escape mutant completely lost the ability to bind to human-like receptor analogues. Further analysis revealed that N-linked glycosylation, as a result of A125T or A151T substitutions in HA, resulted in reduced receptor-binding avidity toward both human and avian-like receptor analogues, and the A125T+A151T mutations completely abolished human-like receptor binding. The L217Q mutation enhanced the H7N9 acid and thermal stability while the A151T mutation dramatically decreased H7N9 HA thermal stability. To conclude, H7N9 AIVs that contain A125T+A151T+L217Q mutations in the HA protein may pose a reduced pandemic risk but remain a heightened threat for poultry.IMPORTANCE Avian influenza H7N9 viruses have been causing disease outbreaks in poultry and humans. We previously determined that propagation of H7N9 virus in virus-specific antiserum gives rise to mutant viruses carrying mutations A125T+A151T+L217Q in their hemagglutinin protein, enabling the virus to overcome vaccine-induced immunity. As predicted, these immune escape mutations were also observed in the field viruses that likely emerged in the immunized or naturally exposed birds. This study demonstrates that the immune escape mutants also (i) gained greater replication ability in cultured cells and in chicken embryos as well as (ii) increased acid and thermal stability but (iii) lost preferences for binding to human-type receptor while maintaining binding for the avian-like receptor. Therefore, they potentially pose reduced pandemic risk. However, the emergent virus variants containing the indicated mutations remain a significant risk to poultry due to antigenic drift and improved fitness for poultry.

Interim estimates of 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, Canada, January 2019

Using a test-negative design, the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network assessed interim 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against predominant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Adjusted VE was 72% (95% confidence interval: 60 to 81) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 illness. This substantial vaccine protection was observed in all age groups, notably young children who appeared to be disproportionately affected. Sequence analysis identified heterogeneity in emerging clade 6B.1 viruses but no dominant drift variant.

The Ecology and Evolution of Influenza Viruses

The patterns and processes of influenza virus evolution are of fundamental importance, underpinning such traits as the propensity to emerge in new host species and the ability to rapidly generate antigenic variation. Herein, we review key aspects of the ecology and evolution of influenza viruses. We begin with an exploration of the origins of influenza viruses within the orthomyxoviruses, showing how our perception of the evolutionary history of these viruses has been transformed with metagenomic sequencing. We then outline the diversity of virus subtypes in different species and the processes by which these viruses have emerged in new hosts, with a particular focus on the role played by segment reassortment. We then turn our attention to documenting the spread and phylodynamics of seasonal influenza A and B viruses in human populations, including the drivers of antigenic evolution, and finish with a discussion of virus diversity and evolution at the scale of individual hosts.

Severe cases of seasonal influenza and detection of seasonal A(H1N2) in Russia in 2018-2019

Data obtained from monitoring cases of severe influenza, cases of vaccinated individuals, and unique cases were used to describe influenza viruses that circulated in Russia in the 2018-2019 epidemic season. A high proportion of the mutations D222G/N in A(H1N1)pdm09 HA was detected in fatal cases. Viruses of the B/Victoria lineage with deletions in HA were detected in Russia, and a reassortant seasonal influenza A(H1N2) virus was identified. A C-terminal truncation in the NS1 protein was detected in a substantial proportion of A(H3N2) viruses.

Sequencing B cell receptors from ferrets (Mustela putorius furo)

The domestic ferret (Mustela putorius furo) provides a critical animal model to study human respiratory diseases. However immunological insights are restricted due to a lack of ferret-specific reagents and limited genetic information about ferret B and T cell receptors. Here, variable, diversity and joining genes within the ferret kappa, lambda and heavy chain immunoglobulin loci were annotated using available genomic information. A multiplex PCR approach was derived that facilitated the recovery of paired heavy and light chain immunoglobulin sequences from single sorted ferret B cells, allowing validation of predicted germline gene sequences and the identification of putative novel germlines. Eukaryotic expression vectors were developed that enabled the generation of recombinant ferret monoclonal antibodies. This work advances the ferret as an informative immunological model for viral diseases by allowing the in-depth interrogation of antibody-based immunity.

IgA Responses Following Recurrent Influenza Virus Vaccination

Influenza is a highly contagious viral respiratory disease that affects millions of people worldwide each year. Annual vaccination is recommended by the World Health Organization to reduce influenza severity and limit transmission through elicitation of antibodies targeting mainly the hemagglutinin glycoprotein of the influenza virus. Antibodies elicited by current seasonal influenza vaccines are predominantly strain-specific. However, continuous antigenic drift by circulating influenza viruses facilitates escape from pre-existing antibodies requiring frequent reformulation of the seasonal influenza vaccine. Traditionally, immunological responses to influenza vaccination have been largely focused on IgG antibodies, with almost complete disregard of other isotypes. In this report, young adults (18–34 years old) and elderly (65–85 years old) subjects were administered the split inactivated influenza vaccine for 3 consecutive seasons and their serological IgA and IgG responses were profiled. Moreover, correlation analysis showed a positive relationship between vaccine-induced IgA antibody titers and traditional immunological endpoints, exposing vaccine-induced IgA antibodies as an important novel immune correlate during influenza vaccination.

Major antigenic site B of human influenza H3N2 viruses has an evolving local fitness landscape

Antigenic drift of influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) is enabled by facile evolvability. However, HA antigenic site B, which has become immunodominant in recent human H3N2 influenza viruses, is also evolutionarily constrained by its involvement in receptor binding. Here, we employ deep mutational scanning to probe the local fitness landscape of HA antigenic site B in six different human H3N2 strains spanning from 1968 to 2016. We observe that the fitness landscape of HA antigenic site B can be very different between strains. Sequence variants that exhibit high fitness in one strain can be deleterious in another, indicating that the evolutionary constraints of antigenic site B have changed over time. Structural analysis suggests that the local fitness landscape of antigenic site B can be reshaped by natural mutations via modulation of the receptor-binding mode. Overall, these findings elucidate how influenza virus continues to explore new antigenic space despite strong functional constraints.

Mapping person-to-person variation in viral mutations that escape polyclonal serum targeting influenza hemagglutinin

A longstanding question is how influenza virus evolves to escape human immunity, which is polyclonal and can target many distinct epitopes. Here, we map how all amino-acid mutations to influenza's major surface protein affect viral neutralization by polyclonal human sera. The serum of some individuals is so focused that it selects single mutations that reduce viral neutralization by over an order of magnitude. However, different viral mutations escape the sera of different individuals. This individual-to-individual variation in viral escape mutations is not present among ferrets that have been infected just once with a defined viral strain. Our results show how different single mutations help influenza virus escape the immunity of different members of the human population, a phenomenon that could shape viral evolution and disease susceptibility.

Extending the Breadth of Influenza Vaccines: Status and Prospects for a Universal Vaccine

Despite the widespread use of seasonal influenza vaccines, there is urgent need for a universal influenza vaccine to provide broad, long-term protection. A number of factors underpin this urgency, including threats posed by zoonotic and pandemic influenza A viruses, suboptimal effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines, and concerns surrounding the effects of annual vaccination. In this article, we discuss approaches that are being investigated to increase influenza vaccine breadth, which are near-term, readily achievable approaches to increase the range of strains recognized within a subtype, or longer-term more challenging approaches to produce a truly universal influenza vaccine. Adjuvanted and neuraminidase-optimized vaccines are emerging as the most feasible and promising approaches to extend protection to cover a broader range of strains within a subtype. The goal of developing a universal vaccine has also been advanced with the design of immunogenic influenza HA-stem constructs that induce broadly neutralizing antibodies. However, these constructs are not yet sufficiently immunogenic to induce lasting universal immunity in humans. Advances in understanding how T cells mediate protection, and how viruses are packaged, have facilitated the rationale design and delivery of replication-incompetent virus vaccines that induce broad protection mediated by lung-resident memory T cells. While the lack of clear mechanistic correlates of protection, other than haemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies, remains an impediment to further advancing novel influenza vaccines, the pressing need for such a vaccine is supporting development of highly innovative and effective strategies.

Targeting Hemagglutinin: Approaches for Broad Protection against the Influenza A Virus

Influenza A viruses are dynamically epidemic and genetically diverse. Due to the antigenic drift and shift of the virus, seasonal vaccines are required to be reformulated annually to match with current circulating strains. However, the mismatch between vaccinal strains and circulating strains occurs frequently, resulting in the low efficacy of seasonal vaccines. Therefore, several “universal” vaccine candidates based on the structure and function of the hemagglutinin (HA) protein have been developed to meet the requirement of a broad protection against homo-/heterosubtypic challenges. Here, we review recent novel constructs and discuss several important findings regarding the broad protective efficacy of HA-based universal vaccines.

Selection of Antigenically Advanced Variants of Influenza Viruses

Influenza virus epidemics are caused when seasonal influenza viruses (i.e., those circulating in humans) acquire mutations in the antigenic sites of the viral hemagglutinin (HA) protein that prevent the antibodies present in people from binding to the virus and blocking virus interaction with cellular receptors. To date, vaccination is the best protective option against seasonal influenza viruses. Because influenza viruses frequently acquire mutations in their antigenic sites, vaccine viruses need to be updated regularly. Here, we present an experimental system that allows the simulation of influenza virus evolution in the test tube. By using this system, we can identify antigenic variants that may emerge among natural influenza viruses in the near future. This information would help in the selection and prioritization of variants for vaccine production.

Insights into the antigenic advancement of influenza A(H3N2) viruses, 2011-2018

Influenza A(H3N2) viruses evade human immunity primarily by acquiring antigenic changes in the haemagglutinin (HA). HA receptor-binding features of contemporary A(H3N2) viruses hinder traditional antigenic characterization using haemagglutination inhibition and promote selection of HA mutants. Thus, alternative approaches are needed to reliably assess antigenic relatedness between circulating viruses and vaccines. We developed a high content imaging-based neutralization test (HINT) to reduce antigenic mischaracterization resulting from virus adaptation to cell culture. Ferret reference antisera were raised using clinical specimens containing viruses representing recent vaccine strains. Analysis of viruses circulating during 2011-2018 showed that gain of an N158-linked glycosylation in HA was a molecular determinant of antigenic distancing between A/Hong Kong/4801/2014-like (clade 3C.2a) and A/Texas/50/2012-like viruses (clade 3C.1), while multiple evolutionary HA F193S substitution were linked to antigenic distancing from A/Switzerland/97152963/2013-like (clade 3C.3a) and further antigenic distancing from A/Texas/50/2012-like viruses. Additionally, a few viruses carrying HA T135K and/or I192T showed reduced neutralization by A/Hong Kong/4801/2014-like antiserum. Notably, this technique elucidated the antigenic characteristics of clinical specimens, enabling direct characterization of viruses produced in vivo, and eliminating in vitro culture, which rapidly alters the genotype/phenotype. HINT is a valuable new antigenic analysis tool for vaccine strain selection.

Current and future influenza vaccines

Although antiviral drugs and vaccines have reduced the economic and healthcare burdens of influenza, influenza epidemics continue to take a toll. Over the past decade, research on influenza viruses has revealed a potential path to improvement. The clues have come from accumulated discoveries from basic and clinical studies. Now, virus surveillance allows researchers to monitor influenza virus epidemic trends and to accumulate virus sequences in public databases, which leads to better selection of candidate viruses for vaccines and early detection of drug-resistant viruses. Here we provide an overview of current vaccine options and describe efforts directed toward the development of next-generation vaccines. Finally, we propose a plan for the development of an optimal influenza vaccine.

Amino Acid Residue 217 in the Hemagglutinin Glycoprotein Is a Key Mediator of Avian Influenza H7N9 Virus Antigenicity

Avian influenza viruses continue to evolve and acquire mutations that facilitate antigenic drift and virulence change. In 2017, low-pathogenicity H7N9 avian influenza viruses evolved to a high-pathogenicity phenotype in China. Comparative antigenic analysis of the low- and high-pathogenicity virus strains showed marked variability. In order to identify residues that may be linked to the antigenic change among the H7N9 viruses, we serially passaged the viruses in the presence of homologous ferret antiserum. Progeny viruses able to overcome the neutralizing capacity of the antiserum were sequenced. The analysis showed that the emergent immune escape viruses contained mutations A125T, A151T, and L217Q in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein as early as passage 5 and that these mutations persisted until passage 10. The results revealed that a single mutation, L217Q, in the HA of H7N9 virus led to 23- and 8-fold reductions in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titer with ferret and chicken antisera, respectively. Further analysis showed that this change also contributed to antigenic differences between the low- and high-pathogenicity H7N9 viruses, thus playing a major role in their antigenic diversification. Therefore, evolutionary changes at amino acid position 217 in the H7N9 viruses can serve as a genetic marker for virus antigenic diversity during vaccine seed matching and selection. The in vitro immune escape mutant selection method used in this study could also aid in the prediction of emerging antigenic variants in naturally infected or immunized animals.IMPORTANCE Avian influenza H7N9 viruses circulating in poultry and wild birds continue to evolve and acquire important phenotypic changes. Mutations to the virus hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein can modulate virus antigenicity and facilitate virus escape from natural or vaccine-induced immunity. The focus of this study was to identify evolutionary markers in the HA of H7N9 that drive escape from antibody-based immunity. To achieve this, we propagated low-pathogenicity H7N9 virus in the presence of polyclonal antiserum derived from ferrets infected with the same strain of virus (homologous antiserum). This selection process was repeated 10 times. The HA gene sequences of viruses recovered after the fifth passage showed that the viruses readily acquired mutations at three different amino acid positions (A125T, A151T, and L217Q). Further functional analysis of these mutations confirmed that the mutation at residue 217 in the HA was responsible for mediating changes to the immunological properties of the H7N9 virus.

Advances in Influenza Virus Research: A Personal Perspective

Technical advances in the last decade have made it possible to investigate influenza virus infection from the cellular and subcellular level to intact animals and humans. As a result, we have gained a new understanding of the virus and disease.

Sera from Individuals with Narrowly Focused Influenza Virus Antibodies Rapidly Select Viral Escape Mutations In Ovo

Influenza viruses use distinct antibody escape mechanisms depending on the overall complexity of the antibody response that is encountered. When grown in the presence of a hemagglutinin (HA) monoclonal antibody, influenza viruses typically acquire a single HA mutation that reduces the binding of that specific monoclonal antibody. In contrast, when confronted with mixtures of HA monoclonal antibodies or polyclonal sera that have antibodies that bind several HA epitopes, influenza viruses acquire mutations that increase HA binding to host cells. Recent data from our laboratory and others suggest that some humans possess antibodies that are narrowly focused on HA epitopes that were present in influenza virus strains that they were likely exposed to in childhood. Here, we completed a series of experiments to determine if humans with narrowly focused HA antibody responses are able to select for influenza virus antigenic escape variants in ovo We identified three human donors that possessed HA antibody responses that were heavily focused on a single HA antigenic site. Sera from all three of these donors selected single HA escape mutations during in ovo passage experiments, similar to what has been previously reported for single monoclonal antibodies. These single HA mutations directly reduced binding of serum antibodies used for selection. We propose that new antigenic variants of influenza viruses might originate in individuals who produce antibodies that are narrowly focused on HA epitopes that were present in viral strains that they encountered in childhood.IMPORTANCE Influenza vaccine strains must be updated frequently since circulating viral strains continuously change in antigenically important epitopes. Our previous studies have demonstrated that some individuals possess antibody responses that are narrowly focused on epitopes that were present in viral strains that they encountered during childhood. Here, we show that influenza viruses rapidly escape this type of polyclonal antibody response when grown in ovo by acquiring single mutations that directly prevent antibody binding. These studies improve our understanding of how influenza viruses evolve when confronted with narrowly focused polyclonal human antibodies.

65 years of influenza surveillance by a World Health Organization-coordinated global network

The 1918 devastating influenza pandemic left a lasting impact on influenza experts and the public, and the importance of global influenza surveillance was soon recognized. The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance Network (GISN) was founded in 1952 and renamed to Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in 2011 upon the adoption by the World Health Assembly, of the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework for the Sharing of Influenza Viruses and Access to Vaccines and Other Benefits ("PIP Framework"). The importance of influenza surveillance had been recognized and promoted by experts prior to the years leading up to the establishment of WHO. In the 65 years of its existence, the Network has grown to comprise 143 National Influenza Centers recognized by WHO, 6 WHO Collaborating Centers, 4 Essential Regulatory Laboratories, and 13 H5 Reference Laboratories. The Network has proven its excellence throughout these 65 years, providing detailed information on circulating seasonal influenza viruses, as well as immediate response to the influenza pandemics in 1957, 1968, and 2009, and to threats caused by animal influenza viruses and by zoonotic transmission of coronaviruses. For its central role in global public health, the Network has been highly recognized by its many partners and by international bodies. Several generations of world-renowned influenza scientists have brought the Network to where it is now and they will take it forward to the future, as influenza will remain a preeminent threat to humans and to animals.

The WHO global influenza surveillance and response system (GISRS)-A future perspective

In the centenary year of the devastating 1918-19 pandemic, it seems opportune to reflect on the success of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) initiated 70 years ago to provide early warning of changes in influenza viruses circulating in the global population to help mitigate the consequences of such a pandemic and maintain the efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccines. Three pandemics later and in the face of pandemic threats from highly pathogenic zoonotic infections by different influenza A subtypes, it continues to represent a model platform for global collaboration and timely sharing of viruses, reagents and information to forestall and respond to public health emergencies.

Deep mutational scanning of hemagglutinin helps predict evolutionary fates of human H3N2 influenza variants

A key goal in the study of influenza virus evolution is to forecast which viral strains will persist and which ones will die out. Here we experimentally measure the effects of all amino acid mutations to the hemagglutinin protein from a human H3N2 influenza strain on viral growth in cell culture. We show that these measurements have utility for distinguishing among viral strains that do and do not succeed in nature. Overall, our work suggests that new high-throughput experimental approaches may be useful for understanding virus evolution in nature.

Human influenza virus rapidly accumulates mutations in its major surface protein hemagglutinin (HA). The evolutionary success of influenza virus lineages depends on how these mutations affect HA’s functionality and antigenicity. Here we experimentally measure the effects on viral growth in cell culture of all single amino acid mutations to the HA from a recent human H3N2 influenza virus strain. We show that mutations that are measured to be more favorable for viral growth are enriched in evolutionarily successful H3N2 viral lineages relative to mutations that are measured to be less favorable for viral growth. Therefore, despite the well-known caveats about cell-culture measurements of viral fitness, such measurements can still be informative for understanding evolution in nature. We also compare our measurements for H3 HA to similar data previously generated for a distantly related H1 HA and find substantial differences in which amino acids are preferred at many sites. For instance, the H3 HA has less disparity in mutational tolerance between the head and stalk domains than the H1 HA. Overall, our work suggests that experimental measurements of mutational effects can be leveraged to help understand the evolutionary fates of viral lineages in nature—but only when the measurements are made on a viral strain similar to the ones being studied in nature.

Foot and mouth disease vaccine strain selection: current approaches and future perspectives

INTRODUCTION

Lack of cross protection between foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) serotypes as well as incomplete protection between some subtypes of FMDV affect the application of vaccine in the field. Further, the emergence of new variant FMD viruses periodically makes the existing vaccine inefficient. Consequently, periodical vaccine strain selection either by in vivo methods or in vitro methods become an essential requirement to enable utilization of appropriate and efficient vaccines.

AREAS COVERED

Here we describe the cross reactivity of the existing vaccines with the global pool of circulating viruses and the putative selected vaccine strains for targeting protection against the two major circulating serotype O and A FMD viruses for East Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Although in vivo cross protection studies are more appropriate methods for vaccine matching and selection than in vitro neutralization test or ELISA, in the face of an outbreak both in vivo and in vitro methods of vaccine matching are not easy, and time consuming. The FMDV capsid contains all the immunogenic epitopes, and therefore vaccine strain prediction models using both capsid sequence and serology data will likely replace existing tools in the future.

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

Interpandemic or seasonal influenza A, currently subtypes H3N2 and H1N1, exacts an enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence prediction ahead of season remains a challenge largely because of the virus' antigenic evolution. We propose a forecasting approach that incorporates evolutionary change into a mechanistic epidemiological model. The proposed models are simple enough that their parameters can be estimated from retrospective surveillance data. These models link amino acid sequences of hemagglutinin epitopes with a transmission model for seasonal H3N2 influenza, also informed by H1N1 levels. With a monthly time series of H3N2 incidence in the United States for more than 10 years, we demonstrate the feasibility of skillful prediction for total cases ahead of season, with a tendency to underpredict monthly peak epidemic size, and an accurate real-time forecast for the 2016/2017 influenza season.

A Perspective on the Structural and Functional Constraints for Immune Evasion: Insights from Influenza Virus

Influenza virus evolves rapidly to constantly escape from natural immunity. Most humoral immune responses to influenza virus target the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein, which is the major antigen on the surface of the virus. The HA is composed of a globular head domain for receptor binding and a stem domain for membrane fusion. The major antigenic sites of HA are located in the globular head subdomain, which is highly tolerant of amino acid substitutions and continual addition of glycosylation sites. Nonetheless, the evolution of the receptor-binding site and the stem region on HA is severely constrained by their functional roles in engaging the host receptor and in mediating membrane fusion, respectively. Here, we review how broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) exploit these evolutionary constraints to protect against diverse influenza strains. We also discuss the emerging role of other epitopes that are conserved only in subsets of viruses. This rapidly increasing knowledge of the evolutionary biology, immunology, structural biology, and virology of influenza virus is invaluable for development and design of more universal influenza vaccines and novel therapeutics.

Identifying key nodes in multilayer networks based on tensor decomposition

The identification of essential agents in multilayer networks characterized by different types of interactions is a crucial and challenging topic, one that is essential for understanding the topological structure and dynamic processes of multilayer networks. In this paper, we use the fourth-order tensor to represent multilayer networks and propose a novel method to identify essential nodes based on CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) tensor decomposition, referred to as the EDCPTD centrality. This method is based on the perspective of multilayer networked structures, which integrate the information of edges among nodes and links between different layers to quantify the importance of nodes in multilayer networks. Three real-world multilayer biological networks are used to evaluate the performance of the EDCPTD centrality. The bar chart and ROC curves of these multilayer networks indicate that the proposed approach is a good alternative index to identify real important nodes. Meanwhile, by comparing the behavior of both the proposed method and the aggregated single-layer methods, we demonstrate that neglecting the multiple relationships between nodes may lead to incorrect identification of the most versatile nodes. Furthermore, the Gene Ontology functional annotation demonstrates that the identified top nodes based on the proposed approach play a significant role in many vital biological processes. Finally, we have implemented many centrality methods of multilayer networks (including our method and the published methods) and created a visual software based on the MATLAB GUI, called ENMNFinder, which can be used by other researchers.

Influenza Evolution: New Insights into an Old Foe

Influenza viruses steadily evolve to escape detection by antibodies, necessitating vaccine updates. A new study uses a massively parallel approach, deep mutational scanning, to catalogue antibody escape mutations. This approach defines potential pathways of viral evolution, beyond those already observed in natural infections, and may help predict its future directions.

Complete mapping of viral escape from neutralizing antibodies

Identifying viral mutations that confer escape from antibodies is crucial for understanding the interplay between immunity and viral evolution. We describe a high-throughput approach to quantify the selection that monoclonal antibodies exert on all single amino-acid mutations to a viral protein. This approach, mutational antigenic profiling, involves creating all replication-competent protein variants of a virus, selecting with antibody, and using deep sequencing to identify enriched mutations. We use mutational antigenic profiling to comprehensively identify mutations that enable influenza virus to escape four monoclonal antibodies targeting hemagglutinin, and validate key findings with neutralization assays. We find remarkable mutation-level idiosyncrasy in antibody escape: for instance, at a single residue targeted by two antibodies, some mutations escape both antibodies while other mutations escape only one or the other. Because mutational antigenic profiling rapidly maps all mutations selected by an antibody, it is useful for elucidating immune specificities and interpreting the antigenic consequences of viral genetic variation.

Generation of a Genetically Stable High-Fidelity Influenza Vaccine Strain

Vaccination is considered the most effective preventive means for influenza control. The development of a master virus with high growth and genetic stability, which may be used for the preparation of vaccine viruses by gene reassortment, is crucial for the enhancement of vaccine performance and efficiency of production. Here, we describe the generation of a high-fidelity and high-growth influenza vaccine master virus strain with a single V43I amino acid change in the PB1 polymerase of the high-growth A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (PR8) master virus. The PB1-V43I mutation was introduced to increase replication fidelity in order to design an H1N1 vaccine strain with a low error rate. The PR8-PB1-V43I virus exhibited good replication compared with that of the parent PR8 virus. In order to compare the efficiency of egg adaptation and the occurrence of gene mutations leading to antigenic alterations, we constructed 6:2 genetic reassortant viruses between the A(H1N1)pdm09 and the PR8-PB1-V43I viruses; hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) were from the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, and the other genes were from the PR8 virus. Mutations responsible for egg adaptation mutations occurred in the HA of the PB1-V43I reassortant virus during serial egg passages; however, in contrast, antigenic mutations were introduced into the HA gene of the 6:2 reassortant virus possessing the wild-type PB1. This study shows that the mutant PR8 virus possessing the PB1 polymerase with the V43I substitution may be utilized as a master virus for the generation of high-growth vaccine viruses with high polymerase fidelity, low error rates of gene replication, and reduced antigenic diversity during virus propagation in eggs for vaccine production.IMPORTANCE Vaccination represents the most effective prophylactic option against influenza. The threat of emergence of influenza pandemics necessitates the ability to generate vaccine viruses rapidly. However, as the influenza virus exhibits a high mutation rate, vaccines must be updated to ensure a good match of the HA and NA antigens between the vaccine and the circulating strain. Here, we generated a genetically stable master virus of the A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1) backbone encoding an engineered high-fidelity viral polymerase. Importantly, following the application of the high-fidelity PR8 backbone, no mutation resulting in antigenic change was introduced into the HA gene during propagation of the A(H1N1)pdm09 candidate vaccine virus. The low error rate of the present vaccine virus should decrease the risk of generating mutant viruses with increased virulence. Therefore, our findings are expected to be useful for the development of prepandemic vaccines and live attenuated vaccines with higher safety than that of the present candidate vaccines.

Improving the selection and development of influenza vaccine viruses - Report of a WHO informal consultation on improving influenza vaccine virus selection, Hong Kong SAR, China, 18-20 November 2015

Since 2010 the WHO has held a series of informal consultations to explore ways of improving the currently highly complex and time-pressured influenza vaccine virus selection and development process. In November 2015 experts from around the world met to review the current status of efforts in this field.

Discussion topics included strengthening influenza surveillance activities to increase the availability of candidate vaccine viruses and improve the extent, timeliness and quality of surveillance data. Consideration was also given to the development and potential application of newer laboratory assays to better characterize candidate vaccine viruses, the potential importance of antibodies directed against influenza virus neuraminidase, and the role of vaccine effectiveness studies. Advances in next generation sequencing and whole genome sequencing of influenza viruses were also discussed, along with associated developments in synthetic genomics technologies, evolutionary analysis and predictive mathematical modelling.

Discussions were also held on the late emergence of an antigenic variant influenza A(H3N2) virus in mid-2014 that could not be incorporated in time into the 2014–15 northern hemisphere vaccine. There was broad recognition that given the current highly constrained influenza vaccine development and production timeline it would remain impossible to incorporate any variant virus which emerged significantly long after the relevant WHO biannual influenza vaccine composition meetings. Discussions were also held on the development of pandemic and broadly protective vaccines, and on associated regulatory and manufacturing requirements and constraints.

With increasing awareness of the health and economic burdens caused by seasonal influenza, the ever-present threat posed by zoonotic influenza viruses, and the significant impact of the 2014–15 northern hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccine mismatch, this consultation provided a very timely opportunity to share developments and exchange views. In all areas, a renewed and strengthened emphasis was placed on developing concrete and measurable actions and identifying the key stakeholders responsible for their implementation.