Modelling hepatitis C therapy--predicting effects of treatment

Viral clearance as a surrogate of clinical efficacy for COVID-19 therapies in outpatients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Surrogates of antiviral efficacy are needed for COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the virological effect of treatment and clinical efficacy as measured by progression to severe disease in outpatients treated for mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and medRxiv from database inception to Aug 16, 2023, for randomised placebo-controlled trials that tested virus-directed treatments (ie, any monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, or antivirals) in non-hospitalised individuals with COVID-19. We only included studies that reported both clinical outcomes (ie, rate of disease progression to hospitalisation or death) and virological outcomes (ie, viral load within the first 7 days of treatment). We extracted summary data from eligible reports, with discrepancies resolved through discussion. We used an established meta-regression model with random effects to assess the association between clinical efficacy and virological treatment effect, and calculated I2 to quantify residual study heterogeneity.

FINDINGS

We identified 1718 unique studies, of which 22 (with a total of 16 684 participants) met the inclusion criteria, and were in primarily unvaccinated individuals. Risk of bias was assessed as low in 19 of 22 studies for clinical outcomes, whereas for virological outcomes, a high risk of bias was assessed in 11 studies, some risk in ten studies, and a low risk in one study. The unadjusted relative risk of disease progression for each extra log10 copies per mL reduction in viral load in treated compared with placebo groups was 0·12 (95% CI 0·04-0·34; p<0·0001) on day 3, 0·20 (0·08-0·50; p=0·0006) on day 5, and 0·53 (0·30-0·94; p=0·030) on day 7. The residual heterogeneity in our meta-regression was estimated as low (I2=0% [0-53] on day 3, 0% [0-71] on day 5, and 0% [0-43] on day 7).

INTERPRETATION

Despite the aggregation of studies with differing designs, and evidence of risk of bias in some virological outcomes, this review provides evidence that treatment-induced acceleration of viral clearance within the first 5 days after treatment is a potential surrogate of clinical efficacy to prevent hospitalisation with COVID-19. This work supports the use of viral clearance as an early phase clinical trial endpoint of therapeutic efficacy.

FUNDING

Australian Government Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Bemnifosbuvir (BEM, AT-527), a novel nucleotide analogue inhibitor of the hepatitis C virus NS5B polymerase

INTRODUCTION

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) persists as a public health concern worldwide. Consequently, optimizing HCV therapy remains an important objective. While current therapies are generally highly effective, advanced antiviral agents are needed to maximize cure rates with potentially shorter treatment durations in a broader patient population, particularly those patients with advanced diseases who remain difficult to treat.

AREAS COVERED

This review summarizes the in vitro anti-HCV activity, preclinical pharmacological properties of bemnifosbuvir (BEM, AT-527), a novel prodrug that is metabolically converted to AT-9010, the active guanosine triphosphate analogue that potently and selectively inhibits several viral RNA polymerases, including the HCV NS5B polymerase. Results from clinical proof-of-concept and phase 2 combination studies are also discussed.

EXPERT OPINION

BEM exhibits potent pan-genotype activity against HCV, and has favorable safety, and drug interaction profiles. BEM is approximately 10-fold more potent than sofosbuvir against HCV genotypes (GT) tested in vitro. When combined with a potent NS5A inhibitor, BEM is expected to be a promising once-daily oral antiviral for chronic HCV infection of all genotypes and fibrosis stages with potentially short treatment durations.

Potential medicinal plants to combat viral infections: A way forward to environmental biotechnology

The viral diseases encouraged scientific community to evaluate the natural antiviral bioactive components rather than protease inhibitors, harmful organic molecules or nucleic acid analogues. For this purpose, medicinal plants have been gaining tremendous importance in the field of attenuating the various kinds of infectious and non-infectious diseases. Most of the commonly used medicines contains the bioactive components/phytoconstituents that are generally extracted from medicinal plants. Moreover, the medicinal plants offer many advantages for the recovery applications of infectious disease especially in viral infections including HIV-1, HIV-2, Enterovirus, Japanese Encephalitis Virus, Hepatitis B virus, Herpes Virus, Respiratory syncytial virus, Chandipura virus and Influenza A/H1N1. Considering the lack of acceptable drug candidates and the growing antimicrobial resistance to existing drug molecules for many emerging viral diseases, medicinal plants may offer best platform to develop sustainable/efficient/economic alternatives against viral infections. In this regard, for exploring and analyzing large volume of scientific data, bibliometric analysis was done using VOS Viewer shedding light on the emerging areas in the field of medicinal plants and their antiviral activity. This review covers most of the plant species that have some novel bioactive compound like gnidicin, gniditrin, rutin, apigenin, quercetin, kaempferol, curcumin, tannin and oleuropin which showed high efficacy to inhibit the several disease causing virus and their mechanism of action in HIV, Covid-19, HBV and RSV were discussed. Moreover, it also delves the in-depth mechanism of medicinal with challenges and future prospective. Therefore, this work delves the key role of environment in the biological field.

A Semi-mechanistic Model to Characterize the Long-Term Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus Markers During Treatment With Lamivudine and Pegylated Interferon

Antiviral treatments against hepatitis B virus (HBV) suppress viral replication but do not eradicate the virus, and need therefore to be taken lifelong to avoid relapse. Mathematical models can be useful to support the development of curative anti-HBV agents; however, they mostly focus on short-term HBV DNA data and neglect the complex host-pathogen interaction. This work aimed to characterize the effect of treatment with lamivudine and/or pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) in 1,300 patients (hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive and HBeAg-negative) treated for 1 year. A mathematical model was developed incorporating two populations of infected cells, namely I 1 , with a high transcriptional activity, that progressively evolve into I 2 , at a rate δ tr , representing cells with integrated HBV DNA that have a lower transcriptional activity. Parameters of the model were estimated in patients treated with lamivudine or Peg-IFN alone (N = 894), and the model was then validated in patients treated with lamivudine plus Peg-IFN (N = 436) to predict the virological response after a year of combination treatment. Lamivudine had a larger effect in blocking viral production than Peg-IFN (99.4-99.9% vs. 91.8-95.1%); however, Peg-IFN had a significant immunomodulatory effect, leading to an enhancement of the loss rates of I 1 (×1.7 in HBeAg-positive patients), I 2 (> ×7 irrespective of HBeAg status), and δ tr (×4.6 and ×2.0 in HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients, respectively). Using this model, we were able to describe the synergy of the different effects occurring during treatment with combination and predicted an effect of 99.99% on blocking viral production. This framework can therefore support the optimization of combination therapy with new anti-HBV agents.

Efficacy of ultra-short, response-guided sofosbuvir and daclatasvir therapy for hepatitis C in a single-arm mechanistic pilot study

Background

World Health Organization has called for research into predictive factors for selecting persons who could be successfully treated with shorter durations of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C. We evaluated early virological response as a means of shortening treatment and explored host, viral and pharmacokinetic contributors to treatment outcome.

Methods

Duration of sofosbuvir and daclatasvir (SOF/DCV) was determined according to day 2 (D2) virologic response for HCV genotype (gt) 1- or 6-infected adults in Vietnam with mild liver disease. Participants received 4- or 8-week treatment according to whether D2 HCV RNA was above or below 500 IU/ml (standard duration is 12 weeks). Primary endpoint was sustained virological response (SVR12). Those failing therapy were retreated with 12 weeks SOF/DCV. Host IFNL4 genotype and viral sequencing was performed at baseline, with repeat viral sequencing if virological rebound was observed. Levels of SOF, its inactive metabolite GS-331007 and DCV were measured on days 0 and 28.

Results

Of 52 adults enrolled, 34 received 4 weeks SOF/DCV, 17 got 8 weeks and 1 withdrew. SVR12 was achieved in 21/34 (62%) treated for 4 weeks, and 17/17 (100%) treated for 8 weeks. Overall, 38/51 (75%) were cured with first-line treatment (mean duration 37 days). Despite a high prevalence of putative NS5A-inhibitor resistance-associated substitutions (RASs), all first-line treatment failures cured after retreatment (13/13). We found no evidence treatment failure was associated with host IFNL4 genotype, viral subtype, baseline RAS, SOF or DCV levels.

Conclusions

Shortened SOF/DCV therapy, with retreatment if needed, reduces DAA use in patients with mild liver disease, while maintaining high cure rates. D2 virologic response alone does not adequately predict SVR12 with 4-week treatment.

Funding

Funded by the Medical Research Council (Grant MR/P025064/1) and The Global Challenges Research 70 Fund (Wellcome Trust Grant 206/296/Z/17/Z).

Combination of in vivo phage therapy data with in silico model highlights key parameters for pneumonia treatment efficacy

The clinical (re)development of bacteriophage (phage) therapy to treat antibiotic-resistant infections faces the challenge of understanding the dynamics of phage-bacteria interactions in the in vivo context. Here, we develop a general strategy coupling in vitro and in vivo experiments with a mathematical model to characterize the interplay between phage and bacteria during pneumonia induced by a pathogenic strain of Escherichia coli. The model allows the estimation of several key parameters for phage therapeutic efficacy. In particular, it quantifies the impact of dose and route of phage administration as well as the synergism of phage and the innate immune response on bacterial clearance. Simulations predict a limited impact of the intrinsic phage characteristics in agreement with the current semi-empirical choices of phages for compassionate treatments. Model-based approaches will foster the deployment of future phage-therapy clinical trials.

Four Weeks Treatment with Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir + Ribavirin-A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

Enhancing treatment uptake for hepatitis C to achieve the elimination goals set by the World Health Organization could be achieved by reducing the treatment duration. The aim of this study was to compare the sustained virological response at week 12 (SVR12) after four weeks of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB) + ribavirin compared to eight weeks of GLE/PIB and to estimate predictors for SVR12 with four weeks of treatment through a multicenter open label randomized controlled trial. Patients were randomized 2:1 (4 weeks:8 weeks) and stratified by genotype 3 and were treatment naïve of all genotypes and without significant liver fibrosis. A total of 27 patients were analyzed for predictors for SVR12, including 15 from the first pilot phase of the study. In the ‘modified intention to treat’ group, 100% (7/7) achieved cure after eight weeks and for patients treated for four weeks the SVR12 was 58.3% (7/12). However, patients with a baseline viral load <2 mill IU/mL had 93% SVR12. The study closed prematurely due to the low number of included patients due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that viral load should be taken into account when considering trials of short course treatment.

Towards a Mathematical Model for the Viral Progression in the Pharynx

In this work, a comprehensive model for the viral progression in the pharynx has been developed. This one-dimension model considers both Fickian diffusion and convective flow coupled with chemical reactions, such as virus population growth, infected and uninfected cell accumulation as well as virus clearance. The effect of a sterilizing agent such as an alcoholic solution on the viral progression in the pharynx was taken into account and a parametric analysis for the effect of kinetic rate parameters on virus propagation was made. Moreover, different conditions caused by further medical treatment, such as a decrease in virus yield per infected cell, were examined. It is shown that the infection fails to establish by decreasing the virus yield per infected cell. It is believed that this work could be used to further investigate the medical treatment of viral progression in the pharynx.

Epidemiology and Clinical Characteristics of Individuals with Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States, 2017-2019

Introduction

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the most common bloodborne chronic infection in the US. Following approval of highly effective, direct-acting antivirals in 2014, the diagnostic and treatment rates for HCV infection in the US have evolved. This study assessed the number of individuals with HCV screening or diagnostic testing and the clinical characteristics and treatment of HCV-infected individuals between 2017 and 2019.

Methods

Individuals screened for HCV antibody and/or tested for HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) from 2017 to 2019 by two large US laboratory companies were included in this analysis. Clinical characteristics, such as HCV genotype, fibrosis stage, HIV coinfection and demographics, were assessed in HCV RNA-positive individuals. HCV treatment and subsequent achievement of sustained virologic response were imputed using data-driven algorithms based on successive viral load decline and negativity.

Results

From 2017 to 2019, the number of individuals tested for HCV antibody increased by 5.7%, from 7,580,303 in 2017 to 8,009,081 in 2019. The percentage of individuals tested who were HCV antibody positive was stable, ranging from 5.0% in 2017 to 4.9% in 2018 and 2019. The number of HCV RNA-positive individuals decreased by 5.0% from 382,500 in 2017 to 363,532 in 2019. Of HCV RNA-positive individuals, the proportions with genotype (GT) 3 and minimal fibrosis increased over time; proportions of individuals aged < 40 years increased, while the proportion aged 50 to 59 years decreased. Treatment rates increased from 23.4% in 2017 to 26.8% in 2019.

Conclusions

The percentage of HCV antibody-positive individuals remained stable from 2017 to 2019. The number of individuals tested HCV RNA positive decreased over the years. Demographics shifted toward a younger population with less fibrosis and higher rates of GT3. More than 70% of diagnosed individuals were not treated during this interval, highlighting a need for unfettered access to treatment.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12325-021-01928-y.

IFNAR1 and IFNAR2 play distinct roles in initiating type I interferon-induced JAK-STAT signaling and activating STATs

[Figure: see text].

High Cure Rates for Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 6 in Advanced Liver Fibrosis With 12 Weeks Sofosbuvir and Daclatasvir: The Vietnam SEARCH Study

BACKGROUND

Genotype 6 is the most genetically diverse lineage of hepatitis C virus, and it predominates in Vietnam. It can be treated with sofosbuvir with daclatasvir (SOF/DCV), the least expensive treatment combination globally. In regional guidelines, longer treatment durations of SOF/DCV (24 weeks) are recommended for cirrhotic individuals, compared with other pangenotypic regimens (12 weeks), based on sparse data. Early on-treatment virological response may offer means of reducing length and cost of therapy in patients with liver fibrosis.

METHODS

In this prospective trial in Vietnam, genotype 6-infected adults with advanced liver fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis were treated with SOF/DCV. Day 14 viral load was used to guide duration of therapy: participants with viral load <500 IU/mL at day 14 were treated with 12 weeks of SOF/DCV and those ≥500 IU/mL received 24 weeks. Primary endpoint was sustained virological response (SVR).

RESULTS

Of 41 individuals with advanced fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis who commenced treatment, 51% had genotype 6a and 34% had 6e. The remainder had 6h, 6k, 6l, or 6o. One hundred percent had viral load <500 IU/mL by day 14, meaning that all received 12 weeks of SOF/DCV. One hundred percent achieved SVR12 despite a high frequency of putative NS5A inhibitor resistance-associated substitutions at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Prescribing 12 weeks of SOF/DCV results in excellent cure rates in this population. These data support the removal of costly genotyping in countries where genotype 3 prevalence is <5%, in keeping with World Health Organization guidelines. NS5A resistance-associated mutations in isolation do not affect efficacy of SOF/DCV therapy. Wider evaluation of response-guided therapy is warranted.

A direct-acting antiviral drug abrogates viremia in Zika virus-infected rhesus macaques

Zika virus infection in humans has been associated with serious reproductive and neurological complications. At present, no protective antiviral drug treatment is available. Here, we describe the testing and evaluation of the antiviral drug, galidesivir, against Zika virus infection in rhesus macaques. We conducted four preclinical studies in rhesus macaques to assess the safety, antiviral efficacy, and dosing strategies for galidesivir (BCX4430) against Zika virus infection. We treated 70 rhesus macaques infected by various routes with the Puerto Rico or Thai Zika virus isolates. We evaluated galidesivir administered as early as 90 min and as late as 72 hours after subcutaneous Zika virus infection and as late as 5 days after intravaginal infection. We evaluated the efficacy of a range of galidesivir doses with endpoints including Zika virus RNA in plasma, saliva, urine, and cerebrospinal fluid. Galidesivir dosing in rhesus macaques was safe and offered postexposure protection against Zika virus infection. Galidesivir exhibited favorable pharmacokinetics with no observed teratogenic effects in rats or rabbits at any dose tested. The antiviral efficacy of galidesivir observed in the blood and central nervous system of infected animals warrants continued evaluation of this compound for the treatment of flaviviral infections.

How Semiphysiological Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling Incorporating Active Hepatic Uptake Supports Phase II Dose Selection of RO7049389, A Novel Anti-Hepatitis B Virus Drug

The pharmacokinetics (PK) of RO7049389, a new hepatitis B virus (HBV) core protein allosteric modulator of class I, and of its active metabolite M5 were studied in fasted and fed conditions after single and multiple once‐a‐day and twice‐a‐day doses in healthy subjects and patients with HBV. The nonlinearity of the pharmacokinetics, the large variability, the small sample size per dose arms, the higher plasma exposure in Asians, and the heterogeneity in patient baseline characteristics seen in phase I studies made the ethnic sensitivity assessment and the selection of the recommended phase II dose difficult. A population PK model, simultaneously modeling RO7049389 and M5, was developed to characterize the complex PK, quantify ethnicity (i.e., Asian vs. non‐Asian) and gender effects on the PK of RO7049389 and M5, and infer the quantity of RO7049389 in liver relative to plasma. Exposures in the liver are of particular importance for dose selection since the liver is the site of action of the compound. The model described and reproduced the population PK profiles as well as the between‐subject variability of RO7049389 and its metabolite. It could show that the PK is similar between healthy subjects and in HBV patients, once the ethnicity and gender effects are accounted for. The model predicts that, despite a large difference in the plasma exposure of RO7049389 between Asians and non‐Asians, the exposure in the liver is comparable, allowing the use of the same dose to treat Asian and non‐Asian patients. This model provides a valuable basis to develop this new anti‐HBV drug and to define optimal dosing.

Intrahepatic Viral Kinetics During Direct-Acting Antivirals for Hepatitis C in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Coinfection: The AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5335S Substudy

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) targeting hepatitis C virus (HCV) have revolutionized outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection.

METHODS

We examined early events in liver and plasma through A5335S, a substudy of trial A5329 (paritaprevir/ritonavir, ombitasvir, dasabuvir, with ribavirin) that enrolled chronic genotype 1a HCV-infected persons coinfected with suppressed HIV: 5 of 6 treatment-naive enrollees completed A5335S.

RESULTS

Mean baseline plasma HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) = 6.7 log10 IU/mL and changed by -4.1 log10 IU/mL by Day 7. In liver, laser capture microdissection was used to quantify HCV. At liver biopsy 1, mean %HCV-infected cells = 25.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.4%-42.9%), correlating with plasma HCV RNA (Spearman rank correlation r = 0.9); at biopsy 2 (Day 7 in 4 of 5 participants), mean %HCV-infected cells = 1.0% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.7%) (P < .05 for change), and DAAs were detectable in liver. Plasma C-X-C motif chemokine 10 (CXCL10) concentrations changed by mean = -160 pg/mL per day at 24 hours, but no further after Day 4.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that HCV infection is rapidly cleared from liver with DAA leaving <2% HCV-infected hepatocytes at Day 7. We extrapolate that HCV eradication could occur in these participants by 63 days, although immune activation might persist. Single-cell longitudinal estimates of HCV clearance from liver have never been reported previously and could be applied to estimating the minimum treatment duration required for HCV infection.

Zika virus dynamics: Effects of inoculum dose, the innate immune response and viral interference

Experimental Zika virus infection in non-human primates results in acute viral load dynamics that can be well-described by mathematical models. The inoculum dose that would be received in a natural infection setting is likely lower than the experimental infections and how this difference affects the viral dynamics and immune response is unclear. Here we study a dataset of experimental infection of non-human primates with a range of doses of Zika virus. We develop new models of infection incorporating both an innate immune response and viral interference with that response. We find that such a model explains the data better than models with no interaction between virus and the immune response. We also find that larger inoculum doses lead to faster dynamics of infection, but approximately the same total amount of viral production.

The relationship between the infecting dose of a pathogen and the subsequent viral dynamics is unclear in many disease settings, and this relationship has implications for both the timing and the required efficacy of antiviral therapy. Since experimental challenge studies often employ higher doses of virus than would generally be present in natural infection assessment of this relationship is particularly important for translation of findings. In this study we used mathematical modelling of viral load data from a multi-dose study of Zika virus infection in a macaque model to describe the impact of varying the dose of Zika virus on model parameters, and developed a novel mathematical model incorporating viral interference with the innate immune response.

Lassa viral dynamics in non-human primates treated with favipiravir or ribavirin

Lassa fever is an haemorrhagic fever caused by Lassa virus (LASV). There is no vaccine approved against LASV and the only recommended antiviral treatment relies on ribavirin, despite limited evidence of efficacy. Recently, the nucleotide analogue favipiravir showed a high antiviral efficacy, with 100% survival obtained in an otherwise fully lethal non-human primate (NHP) model of Lassa fever. However the mechanism of action of the drug is not known and the absence of pharmacokinetic data limits the translation of these results to the human setting. Here we aimed to better understand the antiviral effect of favipiravir by developping the first mathematical model recapitulating Lassa viral dynamics and treatment. We analyzed the viral dynamics in 24 NHPs left untreated or treated with ribavirin or favipiravir, and we put the results in perspective with those obtained with the same drugs in the context of Ebola infection. Our model estimates favipiravir EC50 in vivo to 2.89 μg.mL-1, which is much lower than what was found against Ebola virus. The main mechanism of action of favipiravir was to decrease virus infectivity, with an efficacy of 91% at the highest dose. Based on our knowledge acquired on the drug pharmacokinetics in humans, our model predicts that favipiravir doses larger than 1200 mg twice a day should have the capability to strongly reduce the production infectious virus and provide a milestone towards a future use in humans.

Mathematical modeling of hepatitis C RNA replication, exosome secretion and virus release

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes acute hepatitis C and can lead to life-threatening complications if it becomes chronic. The HCV genome is a single plus strand of RNA. Its intracellular replication is a spatiotemporally coordinated process of RNA translation upon cell infection, RNA synthesis within a replication compartment, and virus particle production. While HCV is mainly transmitted via mature infectious virus particles, it has also been suggested that HCV-infected cells can secrete HCV RNA carrying exosomes that can infect cells in a receptor independent manner. In order to gain insight into these two routes of transmission, we developed a series of intracellular HCV replication models that include HCV RNA secretion and/or virus assembly and release. Fitting our models to in vitro data, in which cells were infected with HCV, suggests that initially most secreted HCV RNA derives from intracellular cytosolic plus-strand RNA, but subsequently secreted HCV RNA derives equally from the cytoplasm and the replication compartments. Furthermore, our model fits to the data suggest that the rate of virus assembly and release is limited by host cell resources. Including the effects of direct acting antivirals in our models, we found that in spite of decreasing intracellular HCV RNA and extracellular virus concentration, low level HCV RNA secretion may continue as long as intracellular RNA is available. This may possibly explain the presence of detectable levels of plasma HCV RNA at the end of treatment even in patients that ultimately attain a sustained virologic response.

Approximately 70 million people are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), which if left untreated may lead to cirrhosis and liver cancer. However, modern drug therapy is highly effective and hepatitis C is the first chronic virus infection that can be cured with short-term therapy in almost all infected individuals. The within-host transmission of HCV occurs mainly via infectious virus particles, but experimental studies suggest that there may be additional receptor-independent cell-to-cell transmission by exosomes that carry the HCV genome. In order to understand the intracellular HCV lifecycle and HCV RNA spread, we developed a series of mathematical models that take both exosomal secretion and viral secretion into account. By fitting these models to in vitro data, we found that secretion of both HCV RNA as well as virus probably occurs and that the rate of virus assembly is likely limited by cellular co-factors on which the virus strongly depends for its own replication. Furthermore, our modeling predicted that the parameters governing the processes in the viral lifecycle that are targeted by direct acting antivirals are the most sensitive to perturbations, which may help explain their ability to cure this infection.

Short-Duration Pan-Genotypic Therapy With Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir for 6 Weeks Among People With Recent Hepatitis C Viral Infection

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Among treatment-naive individuals with chronic hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection and without cirrhosis, glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 8 weeks is recommended. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the efficacy of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 6 weeks in people with acute and recent HCV infection.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In this open-label, single-arm, multicenter, international pilot study, adults with recent HCV (duration of infection < 12 months) received glecaprevir/pibrentasvir 300/120 mg daily for 6 weeks. Primary infection was defined by first positive anti-HCV antibody and/or HCV RNA within 6 months of enrollment and either acute clinical hepatitis within the past 12 months (symptomatic seroconversion illness or alanine aminotransferase > 10 × upper limit of normal) or anti-HCV antibody seroconversion within 18 months. Reinfection was defined as new positive HCV RNA within 6 months of enrollment and evidence of prior spontaneous or treatment-induced clearance. The primary endpoint was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks posttreatment (SVR12). Thirty men (median age 43 years, 90% men who have sex with men) received treatment, of whom 77% (n = 23) were human immunodeficiency virus-positive, 47% (n = 14) had ever injected drugs, and 13% (n = 4) had HCV reinfection. The majority had HCV genotype 1 (83%, n = 25), followed by genotype 4 (10%, n = 3) and genotype 3 (7%, n = 2). At baseline, median estimated duration of infection was 29 weeks (range 13, 52) and median HCV RNA was 6.2 log₁₀ IU/mL (range 0.9, 7.7). SVR12 in the intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations was achieved in 90% (27/30) and 96% (27/28), respectively. There was one case of relapse, and there were two cases of nonvirological failure (death, n = 1; loss to follow-up, n = 1). No treatment-related serious adverse events were seen.

CONCLUSIONS

Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 6 weeks was highly effective among people with acute and recent HCV infection, supporting further evaluation of shortened-duration pan-genotypic therapy in this setting.

The design and statistical aspects of VIETNARMS: a strategic post-licensing trial of multiple oral direct-acting antiviral hepatitis C treatment strategies in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Eliminating hepatitis C is hampered by the costs of direct-acting antiviral treatment and the need to treat hard-to-reach populations. Access could be widened by shortening or simplifying treatment, but limited research means it is unclear which approaches could achieve sufficiently high cure rates to be acceptable. We present the statistical aspects of a multi-arm trial designed to test multiple strategies simultaneously and a monitoring mechanism to detect and stop individual randomly assigned groups with unacceptably low cure rates quickly.

METHODS

The VIETNARMS trial will factorially randomly assign patients to two drug regimens, three treatment-shortening strategies or control, and adjunctive ribavirin or no adjunctive ribavirin with shortening strategies (14 randomly assigned groups). We will use Bayesian monitoring at interim analyses to detect and stop recruitment into unsuccessful strategies, defined by more than 0.95 posterior probability that the true cure rate is less than 90% for the individual randomly assigned group (non-comparative). Final comparisons will be non-inferiority for regimens (margin 5%) and strategies (margin 10%) and superiority for adjunctive ribavirin. Here, we tested the operating characteristics of the stopping guideline for individual randomly assigned groups, planned interim analysis timings and explored power at the final analysis.

RESULTS

A beta (4.5, 0.5) prior for the true cure rate produces less than 0.05 probability of incorrectly stopping an individual randomly assigned group with a true cure rate of more than 90%. Groups with very low cure rates (<60%) are very likely (>0.9 probability) to stop after about 25% of patients are recruited. Groups with moderately low cure rates (80%) are likely to stop (0.7 probability) before overall recruitment finishes. Interim analyses 7, 10, 13 and 18 months after recruitment commences provide good probabilities of stopping inferior individual randomly assigned groups. For an overall true cure rate of 95%, power is more than 90% to confirm non-inferiority in the regimen and strategy comparisons, regardless of the control cure rate, and to detect a 5% absolute difference in the ribavirin comparison.

CONCLUSIONS

The operating characteristics of the stopping guideline are appropriate, and interim analyses can be timed to detect individual randomly assigned groups that are highly likely to have suboptimal performance at various stages. Therefore, our design is suitable for evaluating treatment-shortening or -simplifying strategies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN61522291. Registered on 4 October 2019.

A Coupled Mathematical Model of the Intracellular Replication of Dengue Virus and the Host Cell Immune Response to Infection

Dengue virus (DV) is a positive-strand RNA virus of the Flavivirus genus. It is one of the most prevalent mosquito-borne viruses, infecting globally 390 million individuals per year. The clinical spectrum of DV infection ranges from an asymptomatic course to severe complications such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS), the latter because of severe plasma leakage. Given that the outcome of infection is likely determined by the kinetics of viral replication and the antiviral host cell immune response (HIR) it is of importance to understand the interaction between these two parameters. In this study, we use mathematical modeling to characterize and understand the complex interplay between intracellular DV replication and the host cells' defense mechanisms. We first measured viral RNA, viral protein, and virus particle production in Huh7 cells, which exhibit a notoriously weak intrinsic antiviral response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed intracellular DV replication model. We then measured replication in IFN competent A549 cells and used this data to couple the replication model with a model describing IFN activation and production of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs), as well as their interplay with DV replication. By comparing the cell line specific DV replication, we found that host factors involved in replication complex formation and virus particle production are crucial for replication efficiency. Regarding possible modes of action of the HIR, our model fits suggest that the HIR mainly affects DV RNA translation initiation, cytosolic DV RNA degradation, and naïve cell infection. We further analyzed the potential of direct acting antiviral drugs targeting different processes of the DV lifecycle in silico and found that targeting RNA synthesis and virus assembly and release are the most promising anti-DV drug targets.

Modeling Favipiravir Antiviral Efficacy Against Emerging Viruses: From Animal Studies to Clinical Trials

In 2014, our research network was involved in the evaluation of favipiravir, an anti-influenza polymerase inhibitor, against Ebola virus. In this review, we discuss how mathematical modeling was used, first to propose a relevant dosing regimen in humans, and then to optimize its antiviral efficacy in a nonhuman primate (NHP) model. The data collected in NHPs were finally used to develop a model of Ebola pathogenesis integrating the interactions among the virus, the innate and adaptive immune response, and the action of favipiravir. We conclude the review of this work by discussing how these results are of relevance for future human studies in the context of Ebola virus, but also for other emerging viral diseases for which no therapeutics are available.

Raltegravir pharmacokinetics before and during treatment with ombitasvir, paritaprevir/ritonavir plus dasabuvir in adults with human immunodeficiency virus-1 and hepatitis C virus coinfection: AIDS Clinical Trials Group sub-study A5334s

AIMS

AIDS Clinical Trials Group study A5334s evaluated the pharmacokinetics of raltegravir before and during combined administration of ombitasvir, paritaprevir/ritonavir, plus dasabuvir (OBV/PTV/r + DSV) and weight-based ribavirin in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfected adults. The pharmacokinetics of OBV/PTV/r + DSV during raltegravir coadministration were also characterized.

METHODS

Adults living with HIV/HCV coinfection receiving steady-state raltegravir (400 mg twice daily) with 2 nucleos(t)ide analogues were enrolled. Pharmacokinetics of raltegravir were assessed prior to HCV therapy, and 4 weeks later following initiation of OBV/PTV/r (25/150/100 mg) once daily + DSV (250 mg) twice daily. Geometric mean ratios (GMRs) and 90% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to compare the following: raltegravir pharmacokinetics with HCV therapy (week 4) vs before HCV therapy (week 0); OBV/PTV/r and DSV pharmacokinetics vs historical healthy controls; raltegravir pharmacokinetics at week 0 vs historical control adults living with HIV.

RESULTS

Eight of 11 participants had decreased raltegravir exposures after initiation of HCV therapy. The GMRs (90% CI) for maximum concentration and area under the concentration-time curve of raltegravir with vs without HCV therapy were 0.68 (0.38-1.19) and 0.82 (0.58-1.17), respectively. Comparing OBV/PTV/r pharmacokinetics in healthy controls, A5334s study participants demonstrated generally lower maximum concentration and area under the concentration-time curve values by 41-82% and 4-73%, respectively. Raltegravir exposures tended to be higher in A5334s study participants compared to adults living with HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of participants' plasma raltegravir exposures were lower after initiation of HCV therapy in coinfected adults; however, confidence intervals were wide.

Incidence and predictors of direct-acting antiviral treatment failure in Turkish patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 1b infection

Evaluation of the incidence and predictors of failure of direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus genotype 1b patients is important. Our retrospective cohort study assessed 172 Turkish patients who had received a full course of such treatment and could be checked for sustained virologic response. The overall treatment failure rate was 2.9% (5/172), all of whom relapsed. In three of these cases with sequencing data available, all had NS5A resistance-associated substitution. Multivariate analysis revealed that a 1 mg/dL increase in pre-treatment total bilirubin level was associated with a sevenfold increased likelihood of treatment failure. The baseline level of total bilirubin was the only significant independent predictor of direct-acting antiviral treatment failure.

Interferon at the cellular, individual, and population level in hepatitis C virus infection: Its role in the interferon-free treatment era

The advent of powerful direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C. DAAs cure nearly all patients with short duration, oral treatments. Significant efforts are now underway to optimize DAA-based treatments. We discuss the potential role of interferon in this optimization. Clinical studies present compelling evidence that DAAs perform better in treatment-naive individuals than in individuals who previously failed treatment with interferon, a surprising correlation because interferon and DAAs are thought to act independently. Recent mathematical models explore a mechanistic hypothesis underlying this correlation. The hypothesis invokes the action of interferon at the cellular, individual, and population levels. Strong interferon responses prevent the productive infection of cells, reduce viral replication, and impede the development of resistance to DAAs in infected individuals and improve cure rates elicited by DAAs in treated populations. The models develop descriptions of these processes, integrate them into a comprehensive framework, and capture clinical data quantitatively, providing a successful test of the hypothesis. Individuals with strong endogenous interferon responses thus present a promising subpopulation for reducing DAA treatment durations. This review discusses the conceptual advances made by the models, highlights the new insights they unravel, and examines their applicability to optimize DAA-based treatments.

Mutational pathway maps and founder effects define the within-host spectrum of hepatitis C virus mutants resistant to drugs

Knowledge of the within-host frequencies of resistance-associated amino acid variants (RAVs) is important to the identification of optimal drug combinations for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Multiple RAVs may exist in infected individuals, often below detection limits, at any resistance locus, defining the diversity of accessible resistance pathways. We developed a multiscale mathematical model to estimate the pre-treatment frequencies of the entire spectrum of mutants at chosen loci. Using a codon-level description of amino acids, we performed stochastic simulations of intracellular dynamics with every possible nucleotide variant as the infecting strain and estimated the relative infectivity of each variant and the resulting distribution of variants produced. We employed these quantities in a deterministic multi-strain model of extracellular dynamics and estimated mutant frequencies. Our predictions captured database frequencies of the RAV R155K, resistant to NS3/4A protease inhibitors, presenting a successful test of our formalism. We found that mutational pathway maps, interconnecting all viable mutants, and strong founder effects determined the mutant spectrum. The spectra were vastly different for HCV genotypes 1a and 1b, underlying their differential responses to drugs. Using a fitness landscape determined recently, we estimated that 13 amino acid variants, encoded by 44 codons, exist at the residue 93 of the NS5A protein, illustrating the massive diversity of accessible resistance pathways at specific loci. Accounting for this diversity, which our model enables, would help optimize drug combinations. Our model may be applied to describe the within-host evolution of other flaviviruses and inform vaccine design strategies.

Status of Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Remaining Challenges

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus is a major cause of liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. After the discovery of hepatitis C virus 3 decades ago, the identification of the structure of the viral proteins, combined with high-throughput replicon models, enabled the discovery and development of direct-acting antivirals. These agents have revolutionized patient care, with cure rates of more than 90%. We review the status of direct-acting antiviral therapies for hepatitis C virus infection and discuss remaining challenges. We highlight licensed compounds, discuss the potential to shorten therapy even further, and review different options for treatment failure and resistance. We also provide an overview of clinical experience with generic agents and evidence for their efficacy. Finally, we discuss the need for new drugs and outline promising targets for future therapies.

Validated Models of Immune Response to Virus Infection

Viruses are a main cause of disease worldwide and many are without effective therapeutics or vaccines. A lack of understanding about how host responses work to control viral spread is one factor limiting effective management. How different immune components regulate infection dynamics is beginning to be better understood with the help of mathematical models. These models have been key in discriminating between hypotheses and in identifying rates of virus growth and clearance, dynamical control by different host factors and antivirals, and synergistic interactions during multi-pathogen infections. A recent focus in evaluating model predictions in the laboratory and clinic has illuminate the accuracy of models for a variety of viruses and highlighted the critical nature of theoretical approaches in virology. Here, I discuss recent model-driven exploration of host-pathogen interactions that have illustrated the importance of model validation in establishing the model's predictive capability and in defining new biology.

Shortened therapy of eight weeks with paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir is highly effective in people with recent HCV genotype 1 infection

Paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir with or without ribavirin for 12 weeks are approved for treatment of chronic HCV genotype 1 infection. This study assessed the efficacy of shortened duration paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir with or without ribavirin for 8 weeks among people with recent HCV infection. In this open-label single-arm trial conducted in Australia, England and New Zealand, adults with recent HCV (duration of infection <12 months) received paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir (with weight-based ribavirin for genotypes 1a and 1, no subtype) for 8 weeks. The primary endpoint was sustained virological response at 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12) in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Thirty people (median age 38 years, male 93%) commenced treatment (with ribavirin, 97%), of whom 77% (n = 23) were HIV-positive, 93% (n = 28) had genotype 1a infection and 53% (n = 16) had ever injected drugs. Median maximum ALT in the preceding 12 months was 433 IU/L (IQR 321, 1012). Acute clinical hepatitis with ALT > 10 x ULN was documented in 83% (n = 25); one participant (3%) had jaundice. At baseline, median estimated duration of infection was 30 weeks (range 11, 51), and median HCV RNA was 5.7 log₁₀ IU/mL (range 2.7, 7.3). SVR12 was achieved in 97% (29/30; early discontinuation at week 2, n = 1; per protocol 100%, 29/29). No relapse or reinfection was observed. In conclusion, paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir (with ribavirin) for eight weeks were highly effective among HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals with recent HCV infection. These data support the use of this shortened duration direct-acting antiviral regimen in this population.

Mathematical modeling of within-host Zika virus dynamics

Recent Zika virus outbreaks have been associated with severe outcomes, especially during pregnancy. A great deal of effort has been put toward understanding this virus, particularly the immune mechanisms responsible for rapid viral control in the majority of infections. Identifying and understanding the key mechanisms of immune control will provide the foundation for the development of effective vaccines and antiviral therapy. Here, we outline a mathematical modeling approach for analyzing the within-host dynamics of Zika virus, and we describe how these models can be used to understand key aspects of the viral life cycle and to predict antiviral efficacy.

Mathematical Analysis of Viral Replication Dynamics and Antiviral Treatment Strategies: From Basic Models to Age-Based Multi-Scale Modeling

Viral infectious diseases are a global health concern, as is evident by recent outbreaks of the middle east respiratory syndrome, Ebola virus disease, and re-emerging zika, dengue, and chikungunya fevers. Viral epidemics are a socio-economic burden that causes short- and long-term costs for disease diagnosis and treatment as well as a loss in productivity by absenteeism. These outbreaks and their socio-economic costs underline the necessity for a precise analysis of virus-host interactions, which would help to understand disease mechanisms and to develop therapeutic interventions. The combination of quantitative measurements and dynamic mathematical modeling has increased our understanding of the within-host infection dynamics and has led to important insights into viral pathogenesis, transmission, and disease progression. Furthermore, virus-host models helped to identify drug targets, to predict the treatment duration to achieve cure, and to reduce treatment costs. In this article, we review important achievements made by mathematical modeling of viral kinetics on the extracellular, intracellular, and multi-scale level for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Hepatitis C Virus, Influenza A Virus, Ebola Virus, Dengue Virus, and Zika Virus. Herein, we focus on basic mathematical models on the population scale (so-called target cell-limited models), detailed models regarding the most important steps in the viral life cycle, and the combination of both. For this purpose, we review how mathematical modeling of viral dynamics helped to understand the virus-host interactions and disease progression or clearance. Additionally, we review different types and effects of therapeutic strategies and how mathematical modeling has been used to predict new treatment regimens.

Modelling how responsiveness to interferon improves interferon-free treatment of hepatitis C virus infection

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for hepatitis C treatment tend to fare better in individuals who are also likely to respond well to interferon-alpha (IFN), a surprising correlation given that DAAs target specific viral proteins whereas IFN triggers a generic antiviral immune response. Here, we posit a causal relationship between IFN-responsiveness and DAA treatment outcome. IFN-responsiveness restricts viral replication, which would prevent the growth of viral variants resistant to DAAs and improve treatment outcome. To test this hypothesis, we developed a multiscale mathematical model integrating IFN-responsiveness at the cellular level, viral kinetics and evolution leading to drug resistance at the individual level, and treatment outcome at the population level. Model predictions quantitatively captured data from over 50 clinical trials demonstrating poorer response to DAAs in previous non-responders to IFN than treatment-naïve individuals, presenting strong evidence supporting the hypothesis. Model predictions additionally described several unexplained clinical observations, viz., the percentages of infected individuals who 1) spontaneously clear HCV, 2) get chronically infected but respond to IFN-based therapy, and 3) fail IFN-based therapy but respond to DAA-based therapy, resulting in a comprehensive understanding of HCV infection and treatment. An implication of the causal relationship is that failure of DAA-based treatments may be averted by adding IFN, a strategy of potential use in settings with limited access to DAAs. A second, wider implication is that individuals with greater IFN-responsiveness would require shorter DAA-based treatment durations, presenting a basis and a promising population for response-guided therapy.

Development of a Comprehensive Dataset of Hepatitis C Patients and Examination of Disease Epidemiology in the United States, 2013-2016

INTRODUCTION

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver disease and infectious disease deaths. While recent and emerging treatment options for HCV patients have enabled higher rates of sustained virologic response (SVR), the demographic, clinical, geographic, and payer characteristics of the estimated 3.4 million chronic HCV patients in the USA are poorly understood. The goal of this study was to create a dataset describing the current HCV patient landscape in the USA.

METHODS

Data from two large national laboratory companies representing the majority of US patients screened for HCV antibody and/or tested for HCV RNA from 2013 through 2016 were organized into the present study dataset. Age, gender, payer channel, 3-digit ZIP code and ordering physician specialty, and 3-digit ZIP code information were available for all patients. Among RNA-positive patients, additional clinical characteristics included HCV genotype, fibrosis stage, renal function, and HIV status. Initiating treatment and attaining cure were imputed using data-driven algorithms based on successive RNA viral load measurements.

RESULTS

The number of RNA-positive HCV patients increased from 200,066 patients in 2013 to 469,550 in 2016. The availability of clinical data measurements and rates of treatment initiation increased over the study period, indicating improved care engagement for HCV patients. Treatment and cure rates varied by age, disease severity, geographic location, and payer channel. Sensitivity and specificity of the cure prediction algorithms were consistently above 0.90, validating the robustness of the data imputation approach.

CONCLUSION

This is the largest, most comprehensive dataset available to describe the current US HCV patient landscape. Our results highlight that the epidemiology of HCV is evolving with an increasing number of patients who are younger and have milder disease than described in previous years. Results of this study should help guide efforts toward the elimination of HCV in this country. Future work will focus on factors associated with varying treatment and cure patterns and describing recent changes in the HCV patient landscape.

FUNDING

AbbVie. Plain language summary available for this article.

Management of acute HCV infection in the era of direct-acting antiviral therapy

The management of acute HCV infection has not been standardized following the availability of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for chronic HCV infection, and substantial uncertainty exists regarding the optimal treatment regimen and duration. Despite the lack of direct evidence, the 2016 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD)-Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) guidelines supported "the same regimens for acute HCV as recommended for chronic HCV infection … owing to high efficacy and safety", whereas the 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) guidelines recommended sofosbuvir-ledipasvir, sofosbuvir-velpatasvir or sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir for 8 weeks in acute HCV infection, with a longer duration of 12 weeks recommended for those infected with HIV and/or baseline HCV RNA levels >1,000,000 IU/ml. This Review outlines the epidemiology, natural history and diagnosis of acute HCV infection and provides contemporary information on DAAs for acute and recent HCV infection. The Review also discusses the 2016 AASLD-IDSA and EASL recommendations for acute HCV infection management in light of available evidence and highlights key differences in study populations and design that influence interpretation. We focus on populations at high risk of HCV transmission and acquisition, including people who inject drugs and HIV-positive men who have sex with men, and highlight the potential effects of diagnosis and treatment of acute HCV infection in contributing to HCV elimination.

Modeling how reversal of immune exhaustion elicits cure of chronic hepatitis C after the end of treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents

A fraction of chronic hepatitis C patients treated with direct‐acting antivirals (DAAs) achieved sustained virological responses (SVR), or cure, despite having detectable viremia at the end of treatment (EOT). This observation, termed EOT⁺/SVR, remains puzzling and precludes rational optimization of treatment durations. One hypothesis to explain EOT⁺/SVR, the immunologic hypothesis, argues that the viral decline induced by DAAs during treatment reverses the exhaustion of cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), which then clear the infection after treatment. Whether the hypothesis is consistent with data of viral load changes in patients who experienced EOT⁺/SVR is unknown. Here, we constructed a mathematical model of viral kinetics incorporating the immunologic hypothesis and compared its predictions with patient data. We found the predictions to be in quantitative agreement with patient data. Using the model, we unraveled an underlying bistability that gives rise to EOT⁺/SVR and presents a new avenue to optimize treatment durations. Infected cells trigger both activation and exhaustion of CTLs. CTLs in turn kill infected cells. Due to these competing interactions, two stable steady states, chronic infection and viral clearance, emerge, separated by an unstable steady state with intermediate viremia. When treatment during chronic infection drives viremia sufficiently below the unstable state, spontaneous viral clearance results post‐treatment, marking EOT⁺/SVR. The duration to achieve this desired reduction in viremia defines the minimum treatment duration required for ensuring SVR, which our model can quantify. Estimating parameters defining the CTL response of individuals to HCV infection would enable the application of our model to personalize treatment durations.

Viral kinetics analysis and virological characterization of treatment failures in patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with sofosbuvir and an NS5A inhibitor

BACKGROUND

The combination of sofosbuvir (SOF) plus an NS5A inhibitor for 12 weeks is highly efficacious in patients with chronic hepatitis C. As the costs of generic production of sofosbuvir and NS5A inhibitor are rapidly decreasing, the combination of these DAAs will be the standard treatment in most low- to middle-income countries in the future.

AIM

To identify key predictors of response that can be used to tailor treatment decisions.

METHODS

A cohort of 216 consecutive patients infected with HCV genotype 1 (1a: n = 57; 1b: n = 77), 2 (n = 4), 3 (n = 33) or 4 (n = 44) were treated with sofosbuvir (SOF) + daclatasvir (n = 176) or SOF + ledipasvir (n = 40) for 12 weeks. The viral kinetics was analysed using the biphasic model and the cure boundary was used to predict time to clear HCV.

RESULTS

The overall SVR rate was high (94.4%; n = 204), regardless of the time to viral suppression or low-level viraemia at the end of treatment. The model-based predicted HCV RNA levels at the end of treatment could not differentiate patients who did from those who did not achieve SVR. The presence of NS5A resistance-associated substitutions [position 28 (OR = 70.3, P<.001) and/or 31 (OR = 61.6, P = .002)] at baseline was predictive of virological failure in cirrhotic patients but was not associated with on-treatment viral kinetics.

CONCLUSION

This real-world study confirms the excellent results of clinical trials with therapies based on a combination of SOF plus an NS5A inhibitor. It suggests that a personalized approach including baseline NS5A inhibitor resistance testing may inform treatment decisions in cirrhotic patients.

Shortening the duration of therapy for chronic hepatitis C infection

Combination direct-acting antiviral therapy of 8-24 weeks is highly effective for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C infection. However, shortening the treatment duration to less than 8 weeks could potentially reduce overall treatment costs and improve adherence. Here we explore the arguments for and against the development of short-duration regimens and existing data on treatment for 6 weeks or less among patients with chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1 infection. Additionally, we identify potential predictors of response to short-course combination therapies with direct-acting antiviral drugs that might be explored in future clinical trials.

The paradox of highly effective sofosbuvir-based combination therapy despite slow viral decline: can we still rely on viral kinetics?

High sustained virologic response (SVR) rates have been observed after 6 weeks of anti-HCV treatment using sofosbuvir, ledipasvir and a non-nucleoside polymerase-inhibitor (GS-9669) or a protease-inhibitor (GS-9451) and after 12 weeks with sofosbuvir + ledipasvir. Here we analyze the viral kinetics observed during these treatments to decipher the origin of the rapid cure and to evaluate the possibility of further reducing treatment duration. We found that viral kinetics were surprisingly slow in all treatment groups and could not reproduce the high SVR rates observed. Based on experimental results suggesting that NS5A- or protease-inhibitors can generate non-infectious virus, we incorporated this effect into a mathematical model. We found that to predict observed SVR rates it was necessary to assume that ledipasvir, GS-9669 and GS-9451 rapidly reduce virus infectivity. We predicted with this model that 4 weeks of triple therapy could be sufficient to achieve SVR in patients with undetectable viremia at week 1, but would be suboptimal in general. In conclusion, the rapid cure rate achieved with these combinations is largely disconnected from viral loads measured during treatment. A model assuming that rapid cure is due to a drug effect of generating non-infectious virus could be a basis for future response guided therapy.

Zika plasma viral dynamics in nonhuman primates provides insights into early infection and antiviral strategies

The recent outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) has been associated with fetal abnormalities and neurological complications, prompting global concern. Here we present a mathematical analysis of the within-host dynamics of plasma ZIKV burden in a nonhuman primate model, allowing for characterization of the growth and clearance of ZIKV within individual macaques. We estimate that the eclipse phase for ZIKV, the time between cell infection and viral production, is most likely short (∼4 h), the median within-host basic reproductive number R₀ is 10.7, the rate of viral production is rapid (>25,000 virions d^-1), and the lifetime of an infected cell while producing virus is ∼5 h. We also estimate that the minimum number of virions produced by an infected cell over its lifetime is ∼5,500. We assess the potential effect of an antiviral treatment that blocks viral replication, showing that the median time to undetectable plasma viral load (VL) can be reduced from ∼5 d to ∼3 d with a drug concentration ∼15 times the drug's EC₅₀ when treatment is given prophylactically starting at the time of infection. In the case of favipiravir, a polymerase inhibitor with activity against ZIKV, we predict a dose of 150 mg/kg given twice a day initiated at the time of infection can reduce the peak median VL by ∼3 logs and shorten the time to undetectable median VL by ∼2 d, whereas treatment given 2 d postinfection is mostly ineffective in accelerating plasma VL loss in macaques.

Short article: Viral dynamics among hepatitis C virus chronic infected patients during direct-acting antiviral agents therapy: impact for monitoring and optimizing treatment duration

OBJECTIVES

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) have provided an ultimate treatment duration of 12 weeks for most hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. The opportunity to reduce treatment duration to 6 or 8 weeks is being evaluated. Here, the HCV viral dynamics at short times during HCV therapies and its implications for monitoring and optimizing treatment duration have been assessed.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

HCV chronic infected patients who began HCV therapy (March 2014 to June 2015) at a reference hospital of the Northwest of Spain were selected. HCV-RNA was quantified at different short time points during HCV therapy using Abbott RealTime HCV assay. Epidemiological, clinical, and virological data were recorded.

RESULTS

Eleven HCV-infected patients were included; 90.9% had cirrhosis (>12.5 kPa) and 72.7% were treatment-experienced. HCV genotype 1b was the most prevalent (72.7%). All of the combinations were pegylated interferon-free and all included ribavirin. The median HCV-RNA (log IU/ml) at baseline was 5.8 (5.4-6.1); the decline between baseline and day 3, weeks 4, 8, and 12 was 3.2, 4.8, 5.1, and 5.6, respectively. Fewer than 50% of patients achieved undetectable viral load at weeks 4 and 8; however, all patients achieved a sustained virologic response at 12 weeks.

CONCLUSION

Rapid and high HCV-RNA decline was observed among HCV-infected patients under DAA-based regimens, especially for those without cirrhosis. Despite low rates of patients with undetectable HCV-RNA at weeks 4 and 8, all achieved a sustained virologic response at 12 weeks. These findings suggest that the time points to monitor HCV-RNA during DAA therapies and the treatment duration need to be optimized.

Analysis of Practical Identifiability of a Viral Infection Model

Mathematical modelling approaches have granted a significant contribution to life sciences and beyond to understand experimental results. However, incomplete and inadequate assessments in parameter estimation practices hamper the parameter reliability, and consequently the insights that ultimately could arise from a mathematical model. To keep the diligent works in modelling biological systems from being mistrusted, potential sources of error must be acknowledged. Employing a popular mathematical model in viral infection research, existing means and practices in parameter estimation are exemplified. Numerical results show that poor experimental data is a main source that can lead to erroneous parameter estimates despite the use of innovative parameter estimation algorithms. Arbitrary choices of initial conditions as well as data asynchrony distort the parameter estimates but are often overlooked in modelling studies. This work stresses the existence of several sources of error buried in reports of modelling biological systems, voicing the need for assessing the sources of error, consolidating efforts in solving the immediate difficulties, and possibly reconsidering the use of mathematical modelling to quantify experimental data.

Consolidation of molecular testing in clinical virology

INTRODUCTION

The development of quantitative methods for the detection of viral nucleic acids have significantly improved our ability to manage disease progression and to assess the efficacy of antiviral treatment. Moreover, major advances in molecular technologies during the last decade have allowed the identification of new host genetic markers associated with antiviral drug response but have also strongly revolutionized the way we see and perform virus diagnostics in the coming years. Areas covered: In this review, we describe the history and development of virology diagnostic methods, dedicating particular emphasis on the gradual evolution and recent advances toward the introduction of multiparametric platforms for the syndromic diagnosis. In parallel, we outline the consolidation of viral genome quantification practice in different clinical settings. Expert commentary: More rapid, accurate and affordable molecular technology can be predictable with particular emphasis on emerging techniques (next generation sequencing, digital PCR, point of care testing and syndromic diagnosis) to simplify viral diagnosis in the next future.

Mathematical Models for Immunology: Current State of the Art and Future Research Directions

The advances in genetics and biochemistry that have taken place over the last 10 years led to significant advances in experimental and clinical immunology. In turn, this has led to the development of new mathematical models to investigate qualitatively and quantitatively various open questions in immunology. In this study we present a review of some research areas in mathematical immunology that evolved over the last 10 years. To this end, we take a step-by-step approach in discussing a range of models derived to study the dynamics of both the innate and immune responses at the molecular, cellular and tissue scales. To emphasise the use of mathematics in modelling in this area, we also review some of the mathematical tools used to investigate these models. Finally, we discuss some future trends in both experimental immunology and mathematical immunology for the upcoming years.

Efficacy and safety of 3-week response-guided triple direct-acting antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C infection: a phase 2, open-label, proof-of-concept study

BACKGROUND

To shorten the course of direct-acting antiviral agents for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we examined the antiviral efficacy and safety of 3 weeks of response-guided therapy with an NS3 protease inhibitor and dual NS5A inhibitor-NS5B nucleotide analogue.

METHODS

In this open-label, phase 2a, single centre study, Chinese patients with chronic HCV genotype 1b infection without cirrhosis were randomly allocated by a computer program to one of three treatment groups (sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and asunaprevir; sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and simeprevir; or sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and asunaprevir) until six patients in each group (1:1:1) achieved an ultrarapid virological response (plasma HCV RNA <500 IU/mL by day 2, measured by COBAS TaqMan HCV test, version 2.0). Patients with an ultrarapid virological response received 3 weeks of therapy. Patients who did not achieve an ultrarapid response were switched to sofosbuvir and ledipasvir for either 8 weeks or 12 weeks. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients with a sustained virological response at 12 weeks (SVR12) after treatment completion, analysed in the intention-to-treat population. All patients who achieved an ultrarapid virological response were included in the safety analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02470858.

FINDINGS

Between April 5, 2015, and April 15, 2015, 26 eligible patients were recruited. 12 patients were assigned to sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and asunaprevir; six to sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and simeprevir; and eight to sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and asunaprevir. Six patients in each group achieved an ultrarapid virological response (18 [69%]). All patients with an ultrarapid virological response who were given 3 weeks of triple therapy achieved SVR12. The most common adverse events were fatigue (one [17%] of six patients receiving sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and asunaprevir; one [17%] of six patients receiving sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and simeprevir; and two [33%] of six patients receiving sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and asunaprevir) and headache (one [17%] patient in each group). No patients experienced any serious adverse events.

INTERPRETATION

In this proof-of-concept study, all patients with chronic HCV without cirrhosis who achieved an ultrarapid virological response on triple direct-acting antiviral regimens by day 2 and received 3 weeks of treatment were cured, with excellent tolerability. By shortening the duration of therapy from the currently recommended 12 weeks to 3 weeks, we could drastically reduce the cost of therapy and the rate of adverse events. Further large-scale studies should be done to confirm our findings.

FUNDING

Center for AIDS Research, National Institutes of Health, US Department of Energy, National Center for Research Resources and the Office of Research Infrastructure Programs, Cheng Si-Yuan (China-International) Hepatitis Research Foundation, and Humanity and Health Medical Group.