21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes

Interactions between iron and carbon in permafrost thaw ponds

Thawing permafrost forms "thaw ponds" that accumulate and transport organic carbon (OC), redox-active iron (Fe), and other elements. Although Fe has been shown to act as a control on the microbial degradation of OC in permafrost soils, the role of iron in carbon cycling in thaw ponds remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated Fe-OC interactions in thaw ponds in partially and fully thawed soils ("bog" and "fen" thaw ponds, respectively) in a permafrost peatland complex in Abisko, Sweden, using size separation (large particulate fraction (LPF), small particulate fraction (SPF), and dissolved fraction (DF)), acid extractions, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fe K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The bulk total Fe (total suspended Fe) in the bogs ranged from 135 mg/L (mean = 13 mg/L) whereas the fens exhibited higher total Fe (1.5 to 212 mg/L, mean = 30 mg/L). The concentration of bulk total OC (TOC) in the bog thaw ponds ranged from 50 to 352 mg/L (mean = 170 mg/L), higher than the TOC concentration in the fen thaw ponds (8.5 to 268 mg/L, mean = 17 mg/L). The concentration of 1 M HCl-extractable Fe in the bog ponds was slightly lower than that in the fens (93 ± 1.2 and 137 ± 3.5 mg/L Fe, respectively) with Fe predominantly (>75 %) in the DF in both thaw stages. Fe K-edge XAS analysis showed that while Fe(II) was the predominant species in LPF, Fe(III) was more abundant in the DF, indicating that the stage of thawing and particle size may control Fe redox state. Furthermore, Fe(II) and Fe(III) were partially complexed with natural organic matter (NOM, 8 to 80 %) in both thaw ponds. Results of our work suggest that Fe and OC released during permafrost thaw into thaw ponds (re-)associate, potentially protecting OC from microbial decomposition while also stabilizing the redox state of Fe.

Permafrost carbon cycle and its dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau

Our knowledge on permafrost carbon (C) cycle is crucial for understanding its feedback to climate warming and developing nature-based solutions for mitigating climate change. To understand the characteristics of permafrost C cycle on the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region around the world, we summarized recent advances including the stocks and fluxes of permafrost C and their responses to thawing, and depicted permafrost C dynamics within this century. We find that this alpine permafrost region stores approximately 14.1 Pg (1 Pg=1015 g) of soil organic C (SOC) in the top 3 m. Both substantial gaseous emissions and lateral C transport occur across this permafrost region. Moreover, the mobilization of frozen C is expedited by permafrost thaw, especially by the formation of thermokarst landscapes, which could release significant amounts of C into the atmosphere and surrounding water bodies. This alpine permafrost region nevertheless remains an important C sink, and its capacity to sequester C will continue to increase by 2100. For future perspectives, we would suggest developing long-term in situ observation networks of C stocks and fluxes with improved temporal and spatial coverage, and exploring the mechanisms underlying the response of ecosystem C cycle to permafrost thaw. In addition, it is essential to improve the projection of permafrost C dynamics through in-depth model-data fusion on the Tibetan Plateau.

Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane

Landscape drying associated with permafrost thaw is expected to enhance microbial methane oxidation in arctic soils. Here we show that ice-rich, Yedoma permafrost deposits, comprising a disproportionately large fraction of pan-arctic soil carbon, present an alternate trajectory. Field and laboratory observations indicate that talik (perennially thawed soils in permafrost) development in unsaturated Yedoma uplands leads to unexpectedly large methane emissions (35-78 mg m-2 d-1 summer, 150-180 mg m-2 d-1 winter). Upland Yedoma talik emissions were nearly three times higher annually than northern-wetland emissions on an areal basis. Approximately 70% emissions occurred in winter, when surface-soil freezing abated methanotrophy, enhancing methane escape from the talik. Remote sensing and numerical modeling indicate the potential for widespread upland talik formation across the pan-arctic Yedoma domain during the 21st and 22nd centuries. Contrary to current climate model predictions, these findings imply a positive and much larger permafrost-methane-climate feedback for upland Yedoma.

Spatial variations of DOM in a diverse range of lakes across various frozen ground zones in China: Insights into molecular composition

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays a significant role in aquatic biogeochemical processes and the carbon cycle. As global climate warming continues, it is anticipated that the composition of DOM in lakes will be altered. This could have significant ecological and environmental implications, particularly in frozen ground zones. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the spatial variations and molecular composition of DOM in lakes within various frozen ground zones. In this study, we examined the spatial variations of in-lake DOM both quantitatively, focusing on dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and qualitatively, by evaluating optical properties and conducting molecular characterization using Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS). Lakes in cold regions retained more organic carbon compared to those in warmer regions, the comparison of the mean value of DOC concentration of all sampling sites in the same frozen ground zone showed that the highest mean lake DOC concentration found in the permafrost zone at 21.4 ± 19.3 mg/L. We observed decreasing trends in E2:E3 and MLBL, along with increasing trends in SUVA254 and AImod, along the gradually warming ground. These trends suggest lower molecular weight, reduced aromaticity, and increased molecular lability of in-lake DOM in the permafrost zone compared to other frozen ground zones. Further FT-ICR MS characterization revealed significant molecular-level heterogeneity of DOM, with the lowest abundance of assigned DOM molecular formulas found in lakes within permafrost zones. In all studied zones, the predominant molecular formulas in-lake DOM were compounds consisted by CHO elements, accounting for 40.1 % to 63.1 % of the total. Interestingly, the percentage of CHO exhibited a gradual decline along the warming ground, while there was an increasing trend in nitrogen-containing compounds (CHON%). Meanwhile, a substantial number of polyphenols were identified, likely due to the higher rates of DOM mineralization and the transport of terrestrial DOM derived from vascular plants under the elevated temperature and precipitation conditions in the warming region. In addition, sulfur-containing compounds (CHOS and CHNOS) associated with synthetic surfactants and agal derivatives were consistently detected, and their relative abundances exhibited higher values in seasonal and short-frozen ground zones. This aligns with the increased anthropogenic disturbances to the lake's ecological environment in these two zones. This study reported the first description of in-lake DOM at the molecular level in different frozen ground zones. These findings underline that lakes in the permafrost zone serve as significant hubs for carbon processing. Investigating them may expand our understanding of carbon cycling in inland waters.

Thermokarst lakes are hotspots of antibiotic resistance genes in permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) are natural products and emerging pollutants in remote environments, including permafrost regions that are rapidly thawing due to climate warming. We investigated the role of thermokarst lakes (including sediment and water) in reserving ARGs compared to permafrost soils across the permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As intrinsically connected distinct environments, permafrost soil, lake sediment, and lake water harbored 1239 ARGs in total, while a considerable number of same ARGs (683 out of 1239) concurrently presented in all these environments. Soil and sediment had a higher number of ARGs than water. Multidrug resistance genes were the most diverse and abundant in all three environments, where cls, ropB, mdfA, fabI, and macB were the top five most abundant ARGs while with different orders. Soil and sediment had similar ARG profiles, and the alpha and beta diversity of ARGs in sediment were positively correlated with that in soil. The beta diversity of ARG profiles between sediment and soil was highly contributed by turnover component (89%). However, turnover and nestedness components were almost equality contributed (46%-54%) to the beta diversity of ARG profiles between soil and water as well as between sediment and water. The results suggested that thermokarst lake sediments might inherit the ARGs in permafrost soils. Water ARGs are the subset of soil ARGs and sediment ARGs to a certain degree with species turnover playing a significant role. When accounting the ARGs in sediment and water together, thermokarst lakes had a significantly higher number of ARGs than permafrost soils, suggesting that thermokarst lakes act as the hotspots of ARGs in permafrost regions. These findings are disturbing especially due to the fact that tremendous number of thermokarst lakes are forming under accelerating climate change.

Microbial assemblages in Arctic coastal thermokarst lakes and lagoons

Several studies have investigated changes in microbial community composition in thawing permafrost landscapes, but microbial assemblages in the transient ecosystems of the Arctic coastline remain poorly understood. Thermokarst lakes, abrupt permafrost thaw features, are widespread along the pan-Arctic coast and transform into thermokarst lagoons upon coastal erosion and sea-level rise. This study looks at the effect of marine water inundation (imposing a sulfate-rich, saline environment on top of former thermokarst lake sediments) on microbial community composition and the processes potentially driving microbial community assembly. In the uppermost lagoon sediment influenced from marine water inflow, the microbial structures were significantly different from those deeper in the lagoon sediment and from those of the lakes. In addition, they became more similar along depth compared with lake communities. At the same time, the diversity of core microbial consortia community decreased compared with the lake sediments. This work provides initial observational evidence that Arctic thermokarst lake to lagoon transitions do not only substantially alter microbial communities but also that this transition has a larger effect than permafrost thaw and lake formation history.

Accelerating thermokarst lake changes on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

As significant evidence of ice-rich permafrost degradation due to climate warming, thermokarst lake was developing and undergoing substantial changes. Thermokarst lake was an essential ecosystem component, which significantly impacted the global carbon cycle, hydrology process and the stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor. In this paper, based on Sentinel-2 (2021) and Landsat (1988-2020) images, thermokarst lakes within a 5000 m range along both sides of Qinghai-Tibet Highway were extracted to analyse the spatio-temporal variations. The results showed that the number and area of thermokarst lake in 2021 were 3965 and 4038.6 ha (1 ha = 10,000 m[Formula: see text]), with an average size of 1.0186 ha. Small thermokarst lakes ([Formula: see text]1 ha) accounted for 85.65% of the entire lake count, and large thermokarst lakes ([Formula: see text]10 ha) occupied for 44.92% of the whole lake area. In all sub-regions, the number of small lake far exceeds 75% of the total lake number in each sub-region. R1 sub-region (around Wudaoliang region) had the maximum number density of thermokarst lakes with 0.0071, and R6 sub-region (around Anduo region) had the minimum number density with 0.0032. Thermokarst lakes were mainly distributed within elevation range of 4300 m-5000 m a.s.l. (94.27% and 97.13% of the total number and size), on flat terrain with slopes less than 3[Formula: see text] (99.17% and 98.47% of the total number and surface) and in the north, south, and southeast aspects (51.98% and 50.00% of the total number and area). Thermokarst lakes were significantly developed in warm permafrost region with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) > - 1.5 [Formula: see text]C, accounting for 47.39% and 54.38% of the total count and coverage, respectively. From 1988 to 2020, in spite of shrinkage or even drain of small portion of thermokarst lake, there was a general expansion trend of thermokarst lake with increase in number of 195 (8.58%) and area of 1160.19 ha (41.36%), which decreased during 1988-1995 (- 702 each year and - 706.27 ha/yr) and then increased during 1995-2020 (184.96-702 each year and 360.82 ha/yr). This significant expansion was attributed to ground ice melting as rising air temperature at a rate of 0.03-0.04 [Formula: see text]C/yr. Followed by the increasing precipitation (1.76-3.07 mm/yr) that accelerated the injection of water into lake.

Thermokarst lake susceptibility assessment using machine learning models in permafrost landscapes of the Arctic

Ice-rich permafrost thaws in response to rapid Arctic warming, and ground subsidence facilitates the formation of thermokarst lakes. Thermokarst lakes transform the surface energy balance of permafrost, affecting geomorphology, hydrology, ecology, and infrastructure stability, which can further contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, the spatial distribution of thermokarst lakes at large scales remains a challenging task. Based on multiple high-resolution environmental factors and thermokarst lake inventories, we used machine learning methods to estimate the spatial distributions of present and future thermokarst lake susceptibility (TLS) maps. We also identified key environmental factors of the TLS map. At 1.8 × 106 km2, high and very high susceptible regions were estimated to cover about 10.4 % of the region poleward of 60°N, which were mainly distributed in permafrost-dominated lowland regions. At least 23.9 % of the area of TLS maps was projected to disappear under representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs), with increased susceptibility levels in northern Canada. The slope was the key conditioning factor for the occurrence of thermokarst lakes in Arctic permafrost regions. Compared with similar studies, the reliability of the TLS map was further evaluated using probability calibration curve and coefficient of variation (CV). Our results provide a means for assessing the spatial distribution of thermokarst lakes at the circum-Arctic scale but also improve the understanding of their dynamics in response to the climate system.

Tracking lake drainage events and drained lake basin vegetation dynamics across the Arctic

Widespread lake drainage can lead to large-scale drying in Arctic lake-rich areas, affecting hydrology, ecosystems and permafrost carbon dynamics. To date, the spatio-temporal distribution, driving factors, and post-drainage dynamics of lake drainage events across the Arctic remain unclear. Using satellite remote sensing and surface water products, we identify over 35,000 (~0.6% of all lakes) lake drainage events in the northern permafrost zone between 1984 and 2020, with approximately half being relatively understudied non-thermokarst lakes. Smaller, thermokarst, and discontinuous permafrost area lakes are more susceptible to drainage compared to their larger, non-thermokarst, and continuous permafrost area counterparts. Over time, discontinuous permafrost areas contribute more drained lakes annually than continuous permafrost areas. Following drainage, vegetation rapidly colonizes drained lake basins, with thermokarst drained lake basins showing significantly higher vegetation growth rates and greenness levels than their non-thermokarst counterparts. Under warming, drained lake basins are likely to become more prevalent and serve as greening hotspots, playing an important role in shaping Arctic ecosystems.

Photo-produced aromatic compounds stimulate microbial degradation of dissolved organic carbon in thermokarst lakes

Photochemical and biological degradation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and their interactions jointly contribute to the carbon dioxide released from surface waters in permafrost regions. However, the mechanisms that govern the coupled photochemical and biological degradation of DOC are still poorly understood in thermokarst lakes. Here, by combining Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry and microbial high-throughput sequencing, we conducted a sunlight and microbial degradation experiment using water samples collected from 10 thermokarst lakes along a 1100-km permafrost transect. We demonstrate that the enhancement of sunlight on DOC biodegradation is not associated with the low molecular weight aliphatics produced by sunlight, but driven by the photo-produced aromatics. This aromatic compound-driven acceleration of biodegradation may be attributed to the potential high abilities of the microbes to decompose complex compounds in thermokarst lakes. These findings highlight the importance of aromatics in regulating the sunlight effects on DOC biodegradation in permafrost-affected lakes.

A method for researching the eutrophication and N/P loads of plateau lakes: Lugu Lake as a case

Lugu Lake is one of the best plateau lakes in China in terms of water quality, but in recent years the eutrophication of Lugu Lake has accelerated due to high nitrogen and phosphorus loads. This study aimed to determine the eutrophication state of Lugu Lake. Specifically, the spatio-temporal variations of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution during the wet and dry seasons were investigated in Lianghai and Caohai, and the primary environmental effect factors were defined. Adopting the endogenous static release experiments and the exogenous improved export coefficient model, a novel approach (a combination of internal and external sources) was developed for the estimation of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads in Lugu Lake. It was indicated that the order of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in Lugu Lake was Caohai > Lianghai and dry season > wet season. Dissolved oxygen (DO) and chemical oxygen demand (COD_Mn) were the main environmental factors causing nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. Endogenous nitrogen and phosphorus release rates in Lugu Lake were 668.7 and 42.0 t/a, respectively, and exogenous nitrogen and phosphorus input rates were 372.7 and 30.8 t/a, respectively. The contributions of pollution sources, in descending order, were sediment > land-use categories > residents and livestock breeding > plant decay, of which sediment nitrogen and phosphorus loads accounted for 64.3 % and 57.4 %, respectively. Regulating the endogenous release of sediment and obstructing the exogenous input from shrubland and woodland are emphasized for the management of nitrogen and phosphorus contamination in Lugu Lake. Thus, this study can serve as a theoretical foundation and technical guide for eutrophication control in plateau lakes.

Characteristics of methane emissions from alpine thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding methane (CH₄) emission from thermokarst lakes is crucial for predicting the impacts of abrupt thaw on the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. However, observational evidence, especially from high-altitude permafrost regions, is still scarce. Here, by combining field surveys, radio- and stable-carbon isotopic analyses, and metagenomic sequencing, we present multiple characteristics of CH₄ emissions from 120 thermokarst lakes in 30 clusters along a 1100 km transect on the Tibetan Plateau. We find that thermokarst lakes have high CH₄ emissions during the ice-free period (13.4 ± 1.5 mmol m^-2 d^-1; mean ± standard error) across this alpine permafrost region. Ebullition constitutes 84% of CH₄ emissions, which are fueled primarily by young carbon decomposition through the hydrogenotrophic pathway. The relative abundances of methanogenic genes correspond to the observed CH₄ fluxes. Overall, multiple parameters obtained in this study provide benchmarks for better predicting the strength of permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude permafrost regions.

Metagenomics Unveils Microbial Diversity and Their Biogeochemical Roles in Water and Sediment of Thermokarst Lakes in the Yellow River Source Area

Thermokarst lakes have long been recognized as biogeochemical hotspots, especially as sources of greenhouse gases. On the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, thermokarst lakes are experiencing extensive changes due to faster warming. For a deep understanding of internal lake biogeochemical processes, we applied metagenomic analyses to investigate the microbial diversity and their biogeochemical roles in sediment and water of thermokarst lakes in the Yellow River Source Area (YRSA). Sediment microbial communities (SMCs) had lower species and gene richness than water microbial communities (WMCs). Bacteria were the most abundant component in both SMCs and WMCs with significantly different abundant genera. The functional analyses showed that both SMCs and WMCs had low potential in methanogenesis but strong in aerobic respiration, nitrogen assimilation, exopolyphosphatase, glycerophosphodiester phosphodiesterases, and polyphosphate kinase. Moreover, SMCs were enriched in genes involved in anaerobic carbon fixation, aerobic carbon fixation, fermentation, most nitrogen metabolism pathways, dissimilatory sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation, polysulfide reduction, 2-phosphonopropionate transporter, and phosphate regulation. WMCs were enriched in genes involved in assimilatory sulfate reduction, sulfur mineralization, phosphonoacetate hydrolase, and phosphonate transport. Functional potentials suggest the differences of greenhouse gas emission, nutrient cycling, and living strategies between SMCs and WMCs. This study provides insight into the main biogeochemical processes and their properties in thermokarst lakes in YRSA, improving our understanding of the roles and fates of these lakes in a warming world.

Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse

Earth's climate during the last 4.6 billion years has changed repeatedly between cold (icehouse) and warm (greenhouse) conditions. The hottest conditions (supergreenhouse) are widely assumed to have lacked an active cryosphere. Here we show that during the archetypal supergreenhouse Cretaceous Earth, an active cryosphere with permafrost existed in Chinese plateau deserts (astrochonological age ca. 132.49-132.17 Ma), and that a modern analogue for these plateau cryospheric conditions is the aeolian-permafrost system we report from the Qiongkuai Lebashi Lake area, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Significantly, Cretaceous plateau permafrost was coeval with largely marine cryospheric indicators in the Arctic and Australia, indicating a strong coupling of the ocean-atmosphere system. The Cretaceous permafrost contained a rich microbiome at subtropical palaeolatitude and 3-4 km palaeoaltitude, analogous to recent permafrost in the western Himalayas. A mindset of persistent ice-free greenhouse conditions during the Cretaceous has stifled consideration of permafrost thaw as a contributor of C and nutrients to the palaeo-oceans and palaeo-atmosphere.

A globally relevant stock of soil nitrogen in the Yedoma permafrost domain

Nitrogen regulates multiple aspects of the permafrost climate feedback, including plant growth, organic matter decomposition, and the production of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. Despite its importance, current estimates of permafrost nitrogen are highly uncertain. Here, we compiled a dataset of >2000 samples to quantify nitrogen stocks in the Yedoma domain, a region with organic-rich permafrost that contains ~25% of all permafrost carbon. We estimate that the Yedoma domain contains 41.2 gigatons of nitrogen down to ~20 metre for the deepest unit, which increases the previous estimate for the entire permafrost zone by ~46%. Approximately 90% of this nitrogen (37 gigatons) is stored in permafrost and therefore currently immobile and frozen. Here, we show that of this amount, ¾ is stored >3 metre depth, but if partially mobilised by thaw, this large nitrogen pool could have continental-scale consequences for soil and aquatic biogeochemistry and global-scale consequences for the permafrost feedback.

The Role of Thermokarst Lake Expansion in Altering the Microbial Community and Methane Cycling in Beiluhe Basin on Tibetan Plateau

One of the most significant environmental changes across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the rapid lake expansion. The expansion of thermokarst lakes affects the global biogeochemical cycles and local climate regulation by rising levels, expanding area, and increasing water volumes. Meanwhile, microbial activity contributes greatly to the biogeochemical cycle of carbon in the thermokarst lakes, including organic matter decomposition, soil formation, and mineralization. However, the impact of lake expansion on distribution patterns of microbial communities and methane cycling, especially those of water and sediment under ice, remain unknown. This hinders our ability to assess the true impact of lake expansion on ecosystem services and our ability to accurately investigate greenhouse gas emissions and consumption in thermokarst lakes. Here, we explored the patterns of microorganisms and methane cycling by investigating sediment and water samples at an oriented direction of expansion occurred from four points under ice of a mature-developed thermokarst lake on TP. In addition, the methane concentration of each water layer was examined. Microbial diversity and network complexity were different in our shallow points (MS, SH) and deep points (CE, SH). There are differences of microbial community composition among four points, resulting in the decreased relative abundances of dominant phyla, such as Firmicutes in sediment, Proteobacteria in water, Thermoplasmatota in sediment and water, and increased relative abundance of Actinobacteriota with MS and SH points. Microbial community composition involved in methane cycling also shifted, such as increases in USCγ, Methylomonas, and Methylobacter, with higher relative abundance consistent with low dissolved methane concentration in MS and SH points. There was a strong correlation between changes in microbiota characteristics and changes in water and sediment environmental factors. Together, these results show that lake expansion has an important impact on microbial diversity and methane cycling.

Sedimentary organic carbon storage of thermokarst lakes and ponds across Tibetan permafrost region

Sedimentary soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in thermokarst lakes and ponds (hereafter referred to as thaw lakes) across high-latitude/altitude permafrost areas is of global significance due to increasing thaw lake numbers and their high C vulnerability under climate warming. However, to date, little is known about the SOC storage in these lakes, which limits our better understanding of the fate of these active carbon in a warming future. Here, by combining large-scale field observation data and published deep (e.g., 0-300 cm) permafrost SOC data with a random forest (RF) machine learning technique, we provided the first comprehensive estimation of thaw lake SOC stocks to 3 m depth on the Tibetan Plateau. This study demonstrated that combining multiple environmental factors with the RF model could effectively predict the spatial distributions of the thaw lake SOC density values (SOCDs). The model results revealed that the soil respiration, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and mean annual precipitation (MAP) were the most influential factors for predicting thaw lake SOCDs. In total, the sedimentary SOC stocks in the thaw lakes were approximately 52.62 Tg in the top 3 m, with 53% of the SOC stored in the upper layers (0-100 cm). The SOCDs generally exhibited high values in eastern Tibetan Plateau, and low values in mid- and western Tibetan Plateau, which were similar to the patterns of the land cover types that affected the SOCDs. We further found that the SOCDs of thaw lakes were generally higher than those of their surrounding permafrost soils at different layer depths, which could be ascribed to the erosion of soil particles or leaching solution from the thawing permafrost soils to lakes and/or enhanced vegetation growth at the lake bottom. This research highlights the necessity of explicitly considering the thaw lake SOC stocks in Earth system models for more comprehensive future projections of the carbon dynamics on the plateau.

Methane production controls in a young thermokarst lake formed by abrupt permafrost thaw

Methane (CH₄ ) release to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost contributes significantly to global CH₄ emissions. However, constraining the effects of thaw that control the production and emission of CH₄ is needed to anticipate future Arctic emissions. Here are presented robust rate measurements of CH₄ production and cycling in a region of rapidly degrading permafrost. Big Trail Lake, located in central Alaska, is a young, actively expanding thermokarst lake. The lake was investigated by taking two 1 m cores of sediment from different regions. Two independent methods of measuring microbial CH₄  production, long term (CH₄ accumulation) and short term (¹⁴ C tracer), produced similar average rates of 11 ± 3.5 and 9 ± 3.6 nmol cm^-3  d^-1 , respectively. The rates had small variations between the different lithological units, indicating homogeneous CH₄ production despite heterogeneous lithology in the surface ~1 m of sediment. To estimate the total CH₄ production, the CH₄ production rates were multiplied through the 10-15 m deep talik (thaw bulb). This estimate suggests that CH₄  production is higher than emission by a maximum factor of ~2, which is less than previous estimates. Stable and radioactive carbon isotope measurements showed that 50% of dissolved CH₄ in the first meter was produced further below. Interestingly, labeled ¹⁴ C incubations with 2-¹⁴ C acetate and ¹⁴ C CO₂ indicate that variations in the pathway used by microbes to produce CH₄ depends on the age and type of organic matter in the sediment, but did not appear to influence the rates at which CH₄  was produced. This study demonstrates that at least half of the CH₄ produced by microbial breakdown of organic matter in actively expanding thermokarst is emitted to the atmosphere, and that the majority of this CH₄ is produced in the deep sediment.

Detection of thermokarst lake drainage events in the northern Alaska permafrost region

The rapidly warming Arctic climate is reducing the stability of near-surface permafrost, and the thawing of ice-rich permafrost causes landscape changes known as thermokarst processes. Growing evidence suggests an increasing trend in the frequency and magnitude of thermokarst lake drainage events, which would significantly alter topography and hydrology, affecting ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. Dynamic monitoring of thermokarst lakes through satellite imagery remains a challenging task, as current temporal trend analysis methods have difficulty in accurately detecting when thermokarst lake drainage events occur. In this study, to improve the detection of time series breakpoints, an advanced temporal segmentation and change detection algorithm developed for forest change detection was, for the first time, transposed to monitor thermokarst lake dynamics. Moreover, to filter out spurious signals caused by fluctuations in lake area, we developed a hybrid algorithm to validate the detected thermokarst lake drainage events at the pixel-level and lake object-level, respectively. The method developed in this study demonstrates its effectiveness in detecting thermokarst lake drainage events in Arctic permafrost ecosystems and the potential to monitor the evolution of thermokarst landscapes using Landsat archive. A time-series analysis of changes in the thermokarst lake region of northern Alaska since 2000 using all available Landsat continuous data was performed on the Google Earth Engine platform. In total, 90 drainage lakes larger than 5 ha in size were detected in our study area, nearly a third of which were almost completely drained. As thermokarst lakes drainage represent hotspots of permafrost degradation, we publicly share information on these drained lakes to help select more targeted sites for costly fieldwork and validation activities. This study provides a basis for understanding and quantifying thermokarst lake dynamics in the Arctic permafrost region, which will contribute to the goal of integrating thermokarst processes into earth system models.

Vegetation grows more luxuriantly in Arctic permafrost drained lake basins

As Arctic warming, permafrost thawing, and thermokarst development intensify, increasing evidence suggests that the frequency and magnitude of thermokarst lake drainage events are increasing. Presently, we lack a quantitative understanding of vegetation dynamics in drained lake basins, which is necessary to assess the extent to which plant growth in thawing ecosystems will offset the carbon released from permafrost. In this study, continuous satellite observations were used to detect thermokarst lake drainage events in northern Alaska over the past 20 years, and an advanced temporal segmentation and change detection algorithm allowed us to determine the year of drainage for each lake. Quantitative analysis showed that the greenness (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) of tundra vegetation growing on wet and nutrient-rich lake sediments increased approximately 10 times faster than that of the peripheral vegetation. It takes approximately 5 years (4-6 years for the 25%-75% range) for the drainage lake area to reach the greenness level of the peripheral vegetation. Eventually, the NDVI values of the drained lake basins were 0.15 (or 25%) higher than those of the surrounding areas. In addition, we found less lush vegetation in the floodplain drained lake basins, possibly due to water logging. We further explored the key environmental drivers affecting vegetation dynamics in and around the drained lake basins. The results showed that our multivariate regression model well simulated the growth dynamics of the drainage lake ecosystem ( Radj2=.73 , p < .001) and peripheral vegetation ( Radj2=.68 , p < .001). Among climate variables, moisture variables were more influential than temperature variables, indicating that vegetation growth in this area is susceptible to water stress. Our study provides valuable information for better modeling of vegetation dynamics in thermokarst lake areas and provides new insights into Arctic greening and carbon balance studies as thermokarst lake drainage intensifies.

Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling

Permafrost has been warming in the last decade at rates up to 0.39 °C 10 year-1, raising public concerns about the local and global impacts, such as methane emission. We used satellite data on atmospheric methane concentrations to retrieve information about methane emission in permafrost and non-permafrost environments in Siberia with different biogeochemical conditions in river valleys, thermokarst lakes, wetlands, and lowlands. We evaluated the statistical links with air temperature, precipitation, depth of seasonal thawing, and freezing and developed a statistical model. We demonstrated that by the mid-21st century methane emission in Siberian permafrost regions will increase by less than 20 Tg year-1, which is at the lower end of other estimates. Such changes will lead to less than 0.02 °C global temperature rise. These findings do not support the "methane bomb" concept. They demonstrate that the feedback between thawing Siberian wetlands and the global climate has been significantly overestimated.

Impacts of Permafrost Degradation on Carbon Stocks and Emissions under a Warming Climate: A Review

A huge amount of carbon (C) is stored in permafrost regions. Climate warming and permafrost degradation induce gradual and abrupt carbon emissions into both the atmosphere and hydrosphere. In this paper, we review and synthesize recent advances in studies on carbon stocks in permafrost regions, biodegradability of permafrost organic carbon (POC), carbon emissions, and modeling/projecting permafrost carbon feedback to climate warming. The results showed that: (1) A large amount of organic carbon (1460–1600 PgC) is stored in permafrost regions, while there are large uncertainties in the estimation of carbon pools in subsea permafrost and in clathrates in terrestrial permafrost regions and offshore clathrate reservoirs; (2) many studies indicate that carbon pools in Circum-Arctic regions are on the rise despite the increasing release of POC under a warming climate, because of enhancing carbon uptake of boreal and arctic ecosystems; however, some ecosystem model studies indicate otherwise, that the permafrost carbon pool tends to decline as a result of conversion of permafrost regions from atmospheric sink to source under a warming climate; (3) multiple environmental factors affect the decomposability of POC, including ground hydrothermal regimes, carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratio, organic carbon contents, and microbial communities, among others; and (4) however, results from modeling and projecting studies on the feedbacks of POC to climate warming indicate no conclusive or substantial acceleration of climate warming from POC emission and permafrost degradation over the 21st century. These projections may potentially underestimate the POC feedbacks to climate warming if abrupt POC emissions are not taken into account. We advise that studies on permafrost carbon feedbacks to climate warming should also focus more on the carbon feedbacks from the rapid permafrost degradation, such as thermokarst processes, gas hydrate destabilization, and wildfire-induced permafrost degradation. More attention should be paid to carbon emissions from aquatic systems because of their roles in channeling POC release and their significant methane release potentials.

Climate Signatures on Lake And Wetland Size Distributions in Arctic Deltas

Understanding how thermokarst lakes on arctic river deltas will respond to rapid warming is critical for projecting how carbon storage and fluxes will change in those vulnerable environments. Yet, this understanding is currently limited partly due to the complexity of disentangling significant interannual variability from the longer-term surface water signatures on the landscape, using the short summertime window of optical spaceborne observations. Here, we rigorously separate perennial lakes from ephemeral wetlands on 12 arctic deltas and report distinct size distributions and climate trends for the two waterbodies. Namely, we find a lognormal distribution for lakes and a power-law distribution for wetlands, consistent with a simple proportionate growth model and inundated topography, respectively. Furthermore, while no trend with temperature is found for wetlands, a statistically significant decreasing trend of mean lake size with warmer temperatures is found, attributed to colder deltas having deeper and thicker permafrost preserving larger lakes.

Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios

Minimizing the risks and impacts of climate change requires limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, while the difficulty of reducing carbon emissions at the necessary rate increases the likelihood of temporarily overshooting this climate target. Using simulations with the land surface model JSBACH, we show that it takes high-latitude ecosystems and the state of permafrost-affected soils several centuries to adjust to the atmospheric conditions that arise at the 1.5 °C-target. Here, a temporary warming of the Arctic entails important legacy effects and we show that feedbacks between water-, energy- and carbon cycles allow for multiple steady-states in permafrost regions, which differ with respect to the physical state of the soil, the soil carbon concentrations and the terrestrial carbon uptake and -release. The steady-states depend on the soil organic matter content at the point of climate stabilization, which is significantly affected by an overshoot-induced soil carbon loss.

In this study, the authors investigate a scenario where global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 °C. They find that Arctic ecosystems will need centuries to adapt to such an increase and that the ensuing steady-state depends on the preceding climate trajectory.

Tapping Freshwaters for Methane and Energy

Energy supply limits development through fuel constraints and climatic effects. Production of renewable energy is a central pillar of sustainability but will need to play an increasingly important role in energy generation in order to mitigate fossil-fuel based greenhouse-gas emissions. Global freshwaters represent a vast reservoir of biomass and biogenic CH₄. Here we demonstrate the great potential for the optimized use of this nonfossil carbon as a source of energy that is replenishable within a human lifetime. The feasibility of up-scaled adsorption-driven technologies to capture and refine aqueous CH₄ still awaits verification, yet recent estimates of global freshwater CH₄ production imply that the worldwide energy demand could be satisfied by using the "biofuel" building up in lakes and wetlands. Biogenic CH₄ is mostly generated from biomass produced through atmospheric CO₂ uptake. Its exploitation in freshwaters can thus secure large amounts of carbon-neutral energy, helping to sustain the planetary equilibrium.

Isotopic dynamics of precipitation and its regional and local drivers in a plateau inland lake basin, Southwest China

Shrinkage of plateau lakes under climate strength has drawn growing attention. Because of its intricate implication to hydro-meteorological condition and climate system, stable isotopes in precipitation (e.g. δ²H_p and δ¹⁸O_p) provide us a powerful tool to understand the climate-hydrologic dynamics in shrinking lakes. However, how the regional atmospheric circulation, moisture sources and local fractionation processes drive isotopic variability from temporal to spatial scale has rarely been reported for remote plateau lakes. Hence, we collected a total of 98 rainfall samples at the south and the north shores of Chenghai lake, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to study the potential driving forces of precipitation isotope variability during the wet season of 2019. Based on backward trajectories of air masses obtained from HYSPLIT model, 68% of moisture came from δ¹⁸O depleted ocean (Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and Pacific Ocean), and the rainout process promoted the isotopic depletion when moisture arrived at the study basin. Evapotranspiration increased the heavy isotope ratios in precipitation originated from continents (northern China inland and western continents). The temporal dynamics of δ¹⁸O_p and δ²H_p were in phase with the convection activities intensity underlined the influence from large-scale atmospheric circulation. Local meteorological factors played a secondary role in isotope variability. Precipitation amount-effect strongly affected isotope ratios while mild anti-temperature effect was observed at daily scale. Interestingly, the rainfall isotope ratios showed different mechanisms in govern at lake south shore and north shore, with a distance of 19 km in between. This south-to-north difference can be explained by either lower 1.03% sub-evaporation in the south shore or 7% of recycled moisture contributing to precipitation in the north shore. Our findings discover the driving forces for δ¹⁸O_p variation and provide solid interpretations for hydro-climate change in Southwest China.

Emerging dominance of summer rainfall driving High Arctic terrestrial-aquatic connectivity

Hydrological transformations induced by climate warming are causing Arctic annual fluvial energy to shift from skewed (snowmelt-dominated) to multimodal (snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated) distributions. We integrated decade-long hydrometeorological and biogeochemical data from the High Arctic to show that shifts in the timing and magnitude of annual discharge patterns and stream power budgets are causing Arctic material transfer regimes to undergo fundamental changes. Increased late summer rainfall enhanced terrestrial-aquatic connectivity for dissolved and particulate material fluxes. Permafrost disturbances (<3% of the watersheds’ areal extent) reduced watershed-scale dissolved organic carbon export, offsetting concurrent increased export in undisturbed watersheds. To overcome the watersheds’ buffering capacity for transferring particulate material (30 ± 9 Watt), rainfall events had to increase by an order of magnitude, indicating the landscape is primed for accelerated geomorphological change when future rainfall magnitudes and consequent pluvial responses exceed the current buffering capacity of the terrestrial-aquatic continuum.

Climate warming is causing annual Arctic fluvial energy budgets to shift seasonality from snowmelt-dominated to snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated hydrological regimes, enhancing late summer and fall terrestrial-aquatic connectivity and higher material fluxes.

Our future: Experiencing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and pandemic

Outbreaks of the novel coronavirus disease (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2: SARS-CoV-2) (coronavirus disease 2019; COVID-19) remind us once again of the mechanisms of zoonotic outbreaks. Climate change and the expansion of agricultural lands and infrastructures due to population growth will ultimately reduce or eliminate wildlife and avian habitats and increase opportunities for wildlife and birds to come into contact with livestock and humans. Consequently, infectious pathogens are transmitted from wildlife and birds to livestock and humans, promoting zoonotic diseases. In addition, the spread of diseases has been associated with air pollution and social inequities, such as racial discrimination, gender inequality, and racial, economic, and educational disparities. The COVID-19 pandemic is a fresh reminder of the significance of excessive greenhouse gas excretion and air pollution, highlighting social inequities and distortions. This provides us with an opportunity to reflect on the appropriateness of our trajectory. Therefore, this review glances through the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses our future.

Geomorphological and Climatic Drivers of Thermokarst Lake Area Increase Trend (1999–2018) in the Kolyma Lowland Yedoma Region, North-Eastern Siberia

Thermokarst lakes are widespread in Arctic lowlands. Under a warming climate, landscapes with highly ice-rich Yedoma Ice Complex (IC) deposits are particularly vulnerable, and thermokarst lake area dynamics serve as an indicator for their response to climate change. We conducted lake change trend analysis for a 44,500 km2 region of the Kolyma Lowland using Landsat imagery in conjunction with TanDEM-X digital elevation model and Quaternary Geology map data. We delineated yedoma–alas relief types with different yedoma fractions, serving as a base for geospatial analysis of lake area dynamics. We quantified lake changes over the 1999–2018 period using machine-learning-based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data and object-based long-term lake detection. We analyzed the lake area dynamics separately for 1999–2013 and 1999–2018 periods, including the most recent five years that were characterized by very high precipitation. Comparison of drained lake basin area with thermokarst lake extents reveal the overall limnicity decrease by 80% during the Holocene. Current climate warming and wetting in the region led to a lake area increase by 0.89% for the 1999–2013 period and an increase by 4.15% for the 1999–2018 period. We analyzed geomorphological factors impacting modern lake area changes for both periods such as lake size, elevation, and yedoma–alas relief type. We detected a lake area expansion trend in high yedoma fraction areas indicating ongoing Yedoma IC degradation by lake thermokarst. Our concept of differentiating yedoma–alas relief types helps to characterize landscape-scale lake area changes and could potentially be applied for refined assessments of greenhouse gas emissions in Yedoma regions. Comprehensive geomorphological inventories of Yedoma regions using geospatial data provide a better understanding of the extent of thermokarst processes during the Holocene and the pre-conditioning of modern thermokarst lake area dynamics.

Absence of ice-bonded permafrost beneath an Arctic lagoon revealed by electrical geophysics

Relict permafrost is ubiquitous throughout the Arctic coastal shelf, but little is known about it near shore. The presence and thawing of subsea permafrost are vital information because permafrost stores an atmosphere's worth of carbon and protects against coastal erosion. Through electrical resistivity imaging across a lagoon on the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast in summer, we found that the subsurface is not ice-bonded down to ~20 m continually from within the lagoon, across the beach, and underneath an ice-wedge polygon on the tundra. This contrasts with the broadly held idea of a gently sloping ice-bonded permafrost table extending from land to offshore. The extensive unfrozen zone is a marine talik connected to on-land cryopeg. This zone is a potential source and conduit for water and dissolved organic matter, is vulnerable to physical degradation, and is liable to changes in biogeochemical processes that affect carbon cycling and climate feedbacks.

Sensitivity of soil freeze/thaw dynamics to environmental conditions at different spatial scales in the central Tibetan Plateau

An enhanced understanding of environmental controls on soil freeze/thaw (F/T) dynamics at different spatial scales is critical for projecting permafrost responses to future climate conditions. In this study, a 1-D soil thermal model and multi-scale observation networks were used to investigate the sensitivity of soil F/T dynamics in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) to environmental conditions at local (~10 km)-, medium- (~30 km), and large (~100 km)- scales. Model simulated soil temperature profile generally agrees well with the observations, with root-mean-square errors (RMSE) lower than 1.3 °C and 2.0 °C for two in-situ networks, respectively. Model simulated maximum frozen depths (MFD) closely related to elevation (R² = 0.23, p < 0.01), soil moisture content (R² = 0.25, p < 0.01), and soil organic carbon (SOC) content (R² = 0.18, p < 0.01); however, the impact of SOC on MFD may be due to the close correlation between SOC and soil moisture. The main factors affecting MFD vary with scale. Among the environmental factors examined, topography (especially elevation) is the first-order factor controlling the MFD at the large-scale, indicating the dominance of thermal control. Aspect shows sizeable impacts at the medium-scale, while soil moisture plays an important role at the local-scale. Soil thaw onset shows a close correlation with the examined environmental factors including soil moisture, while freeze onset seems to be influenced more by other factors. Besides the well-known thermal effect, our study highlights the importance of soil moisture in affecting soil F/T dynamics at different scales in the central TP region, and reliable soil moisture products are critical to better project the response of the TP frozen ground to future warming at finer scale.

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw

Over many millennia, northern peatlands have accumulated large amounts of carbon and nitrogen, thus cooling the global climate. Over shorter timescales, peatland disturbances can trigger losses of peat and release of greenhouses gases. Despite their importance to the global climate, peatlands remain poorly mapped, and the vulnerability of permafrost peatlands to warming is uncertain. This study compiles over 7,000 field observations to present a data-driven map of northern peatlands and their carbon and nitrogen stocks. We use these maps to model the impact of permafrost thaw on peatlands and find that warming will likely shift the greenhouse gas balance of northern peatlands. At present, peatlands cool the climate, but anthropogenic warming can shift them into a net source of warming.

Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km² and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y⁻¹) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km² of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH₄-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO₂-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO₂-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.

Effects of Temperature on Cs+(H2O)20 Clathrate Structure

Clusters consisting of 20 water molecules and a single cesium ion are especially stable due to their clathrate structure that is composed exclusively of three-coordinate water molecules. Clathrate stability was investigated using infrared photodissociation (IRPD) spectroscopy in the free-OH stretching region (∼3600-3800 cm^-1) at ion cell temperatures between 135 and 355 K. At 275 K and colder, IRPD spectra of Cs⁺(H₂O)₂₀ have just one acceptor-acceptor-donor band. At higher temperatures, a higher-energy acceptor-donor band emerges and grows in intensity. Non-clathrate Na⁺(H₂O)₂₀ structures contain both of these bands, which do not change significantly in intensity over the temperature range. These results indicate a rapid onset in the conversion from clathrate to non-clathrate structures with temperature and suggest that some clathrate population remains even at the highest temperatures investigated. These results provide new insights into the role of entropy in clathrate stability.

Composition and photo-reactivity of organic matter from permafrost soils and surface waters in interior Alaska

Yedoma permafrost soils are especially susceptible to abrupt thaw due to their exceptional thickness and high ice content. Compared to other mineral soils, yedoma has a high organic carbon content, which has shown to be particularly biolabile. The organic carbon in these deposits needs to be characterised to provide an identification toolkit for detecting and monitoring the thaw, mobilisation and mineralisation of yedoma permafrost. This study characterised organic carbon isolates from thermokarst lakes (either receiving inputs from thaw of original yedoma or refrozen-thermokarst deposits, or lacking recent thaw) during winter and summer seasons within the Goldstream Creek watershed, a discontinuous permafrost watershed in interior Alaska, to identify the extent to which thermokarst-lake environments are impacted by degradation of yedoma permafrost. Waters from lakes of varied age and thermokarst activity, as well as active layer and undisturbed yedoma permafrost soils were isolated and characterised by functional group abundance (multiCP-MAS ¹³C and SPR-W5-WATERGATE ¹H NMR), absorbance and fluorescence, and photobleaching ability. DOM isolated from winter and summer seasons revealed differing composition and photoreactivity, suggesting varied active layer and permafrost influence under differing ground water flow regimes. Water extractable organic matter isolates from permafrost leachates revealed variation in terms of photoreactivity and photolability, with the youngest sampled permafrost isolate being the most photoreactive and photolabile. As temperatures increase, release of permafrost organic matter is inevitable. Obtaining a holistic understanding of DOM composition and photoreactivity will allow for a better prediction of permafrost thaw impacts in the coming decades.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019

This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.

Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.

Siberian Arctic permafrost contains vast stores of carbon, the fate of which is dependent on the climate. Here the authors use models of future scenarios to show that under the direst climate changes up to 2/3 of the stored organic carbon could thaw.

Permafrost thawing puts the frozen carbon at risk over the Tibetan Plateau

Soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in permafrost across the high-latitude/altitude Northern Hemisphere represents an important potential carbon source under future warming. Here, we provide a comprehensive investigation on the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOC over the high-altitude Tibetan Plateau (TP), which has received less attention compared with the circum-Arctic region. The permafrost region covers ~42% of the entire TP and contains ~37.21 Pg perennially frozen SOC at the baseline period (2006-2015). With continuous warming, the active layer is projected to further deepen, resulting in ~1.86 ± 0.49 Pg and ~3.80 ± 0.76 Pg permafrost carbon thawing by 2100 under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), respectively. This could largely offset the regional carbon sink and even potentially turn the region into a net carbon source. Our findings also highlight the importance of deep permafrost thawing that is generally ignored in current Earth system models.

Roles of Thermokarst Lakes in a Warming World

Permafrost covers a quarter of the northern hemisphere land surface and contains twice the amount of carbon that is currently present in the atmosphere. Future climate change is expected to reduce its near-surface cover by over 90% by the end of the 21st century, leading to thermokarst lake formation. Thermokarst lakes are point sources of carbon dioxide and methane which release long-term carbon stocks into the atmosphere, thereby initiating a positive climate feedback potentially contributing up to a 0.39°C rise of surface air temperatures by 2300. This review describes the potential role of thermokarst lakes in a warming world and the microbial mechanisms that underlie their contributions to the global greenhouse gas budget.

Increased high-latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010-2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO₂ uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO₂ balance. Eddy covariance CO₂ flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO₂ exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO₂ exchange in the fall. The net CO₂ exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO₂ exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO₂ dynamics in the northern high latitudes.

A Complex Interplay between Nitric Oxide, Quorum Sensing, and the Unique Secondary Metabolite Tundrenone Constitutes the Hypoxia Response in Methylobacter

Here, we describe a novel and complex hypoxia response system in a methanotrophic bacterium that involves modules of central carbon metabolism, denitrification, quorum sensing, and a secondary metabolite, tundrenone. This intricate stress response system, so far unique to Methylobacter species, may be responsible for the persistence and activity of these species across gradients of dioxygen tensions and for the cosmopolitan distribution of these organisms in freshwater and soil environments in the Northern Hemisphere, including the fast-melting permafrosts.

Methylobacter species, members of the Methylococcales, have recently emerged as some of the globally widespread, cosmopolitan species that play a key role in the environmental consumption of methane across gradients of dioxygen tensions. In this work, we approached the question of how Methylobacter copes with hypoxia, via laboratory manipulation. Through comparative transcriptomics of cultures grown under high dioxygen partial pressure versus cultures exposed to hypoxia, we identified a gene cluster encoding a hybrid cluster protein along with sensing and regulatory functions. Through mutant analysis, we demonstrated that this gene cluster is involved in the hypoxia stress response. Through additional transcriptomic analyses, we uncovered a complex interconnection between the NO-mediated stress response, quorum sensing, the secondary metabolite tundrenone, and methanol dehydrogenase functions. This novel and complex hypoxia stress response system is so far unique to Methylobacter species, and it may play a role in the environmental fitness of these organisms and in their cosmopolitan environmental distribution.

IMPORTANCE Here, we describe a novel and complex hypoxia response system in a methanotrophic bacterium that involves modules of central carbon metabolism, denitrification, quorum sensing, and a secondary metabolite, tundrenone. This intricate stress response system, so far unique to Methylobacter species, may be responsible for the persistence and activity of these species across gradients of dioxygen tensions and for the cosmopolitan distribution of these organisms in freshwater and soil environments in the Northern Hemisphere, including the fast-melting permafrosts.

Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic coastal plain of Alaska

Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000). We identified 98 lakes larger than 10 ha that partially (>25% of area) or completely drained during the 62-year period. Decadal-scale lake drainage rates progressively declined from 2.0 lakes/yr (1955-1975), to 1.6 lakes/yr (1975-2000), and to 1.2 lakes/yr (2000-2017) in the ~30,000-km2 study area. Detailed Landsat trend analysis between 2000 and 2017 identified two years, 2004 and 2006, with a cluster (five or more) of lake drainages probably associated with bank overtopping or headward erosion. To identify future potential lake drainages, we combined the historical lake drainage observations with a geospatial dataset describing lake elevation, hydrologic connectivity, and adjacent lake margin topographic gradients developed with a 5-m-resolution digital surface model. We identified ~1900 lakes likely to be prone to drainage in the future. Of the 20 lakes that drained in the most recent study period, 85% were identified in this future lake drainage potential dataset. Our assessment of historical lake drainage magnitude, mechanisms and pathways, and identification of potential future lake drainages provides insights into how arctic lowland landscapes may change and evolve in the coming decades to centuries.

Magnitude and Drivers of Potential Methane Oxidation and Production across the Tibetan Alpine Permafrost Region

Methane (CH₄) dynamics across permafrost regions is critical in determining the magnitude and direction of permafrost carbon (C)-climate feedback. However, current studies are mainly derived from the Arctic area, with limited evidence from other permafrost regions. By combining large-scale laboratory incubation across 51 sampling sites with machine learning techniques and bootstrap analysis, here, we determined regional patterns and dominant drivers of CH₄ oxidation potential in alpine steppe and meadow (CH₄ sink areas) and CH₄ production potential in swamp meadow (CH₄ source areas) across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region. Our results showed that both CH₄ oxidation potential (in alpine steppe and meadow) and CH₄ production potential (in swamp meadow) exhibited large variability across various sampling sites, with the median value being 8.7, 9.6, and 11.5 ng g^-1 dry soil h^-1, respectively. Our results also revealed that methanotroph abundance and soil moisture were two dominant factors regulating CH₄ oxidation potential, whereas CH₄ production potential was mainly affected by methanogen abundance and the soil organic carbon content, with functional gene abundance acting as the best explaining variable. These results highlight the crucial role of microbes in regulating CH₄ dynamics, which should be considered when predicting the permafrost C cycle under future climate scenarios.

Cooling down the world oceans and the earth by enhancing the North Atlantic Ocean current

The world is going through intensive changes due to global warming. It is well known that the reduction in ice cover in the Arctic Ocean further contributes to increasing the atmospheric Arctic temperature due to the reduction of the albedo effect and increase in heat absorbed by the ocean’s surface. The Arctic ice cover also works like an insulation sheet, keeping the heat in the ocean from dissipating into the cold Arctic atmosphere. Increasing the salinity of the Arctic Ocean surface would allow the warmer and less salty North Atlantic Ocean current to flow on the surface of the Arctic Ocean considerably increasing the temperature of the Arctic atmosphere and release the ocean heat trapped under the ice. This paper argues that if the North Atlantic Ocean current could maintain the Arctic Ocean ice-free during the winter, the longwave radiation heat loss into space would be larger than the increase in heat absorption due to the albedo effect. This paper presents details of the fundamentals of the Arctic Ocean circulation and presents three possible approaches for increasing the salinity of the surface water of the Arctic Ocean. It then discusses that increasing the salinity of the Arctic Ocean would warm the atmosphere of the Arctic region, but cool down the oceans and possibly the Earth. However, it might take thousands of years for the effects of cooling the oceans to cool the global average atmospheric temperature.

Century-scale time since permafrost thaw affects temperature sensitivity of net methane production in thermokarst-lake and talik sediments

Permafrost thaw subjects previously frozen soil organic carbon (SOC) to microbial degradation to the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄). Emission of these gases constitutes a positive feedback to climate warming. Among numerous uncertainties in estimating the strength of this permafrost carbon feedback (PCF), two are: (i) how mineralization of permafrost SOC thawed in saturated anaerobic conditions responds to changes in temperature and (ii) how microbial communities and temperature sensitivities change over time since thaw. To address these uncertainties, we utilized a thermokarst-lake sediment core as a natural chronosequence where SOC thawed and incubated in situ under saturated anaerobic conditions for up to 400 years following permafrost thaw. Initial microbial communities were characterized, and sediments were anaerobically incubated in the lab at four temperatures (0 °C, 3 °C, 10 °C, and 25 °C) bracketing those observed in the lake's talik. Net CH₄ production in freshly-thawed sediments near the downward-expanding thaw boundary at the base of the talik were most sensitive to warming at the lower incubation temperatures (0 °C to 3 °C), while the overlying sediments which had been thawed for centuries had initial low abundant methanogenic communities (< 0.02%) and did not experience statistically significant increases in net CH₄ production potentials until higher incubation temperatures (10 °C to 25 °C). We propose these observed differences in temperature sensitivities are due to differences in SOM quality and functional microbial community composition that evolve over time; however further research is necessary to better constrain the roles of these factors in determining temperature controls on anaerobic C mineralization.

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter^1-3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO₂)⁴. However, the amount of CO₂ released in winter is highly uncertain and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or by empirically-based estimates^5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO₂ flux from arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1662 Tg C yr^-1 from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1032 Tg C yr^-1). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO₂ emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-RCP 8.5. Our results provide a new baseline for winter CO₂ emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO₂ loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Microbial Community Structure and Methane Cycling Potential along a Thermokarst Pond-Peatland Continuum

The thawing of ice-rich permafrost soils in northern peatlands leads to the formation of thermokarst ponds, surrounded by organic-rich soils. These aquatic ecosystems are sites of intense microbial activity, and CO₂ and CH₄ emissions. Many of the pond systems in northern landscapes and their surrounding peatlands are hydrologically contiguous, but little is known about the microbial connectivity of concentric habitats around the thermokarst ponds, or the effects of peat accumulation and infilling on the microbial communities. Here we investigated microbial community structure and abundance in a thermokarst pond-peatland system in subarctic Canada. Several lineages were ubiquitous, supporting a prokaryotic continuum from the thermokarst pond to surrounding peatlands. However, the microbial community structure shifted from typical aerobic freshwater microorganisms (Betaproteobacteria and Alphaproteobacteria) in the pond towards acidophilic and anaerobic lineages (Acidobacteria and Choroflexi) in the connected peatland waters, likely selected by the acidification of the water by Sphagnum mosses. Marked changes in abundance and community composition of methane cycling microorganisms were detected along the thermokarst pond-peatland transects, suggesting fine tuning of C-1 carbon cycling within a highly connected system, and warranting the need for higher spatial resolution across the thermokarst landscape to accurately predict net greenhouse gas emissions from northern peatlands.

Bismuth-Based Photocatalysts for Solar Photocatalytic Carbon Dioxide Conversion

Photocatalytic CO₂ conversion into solar fuels is an effective means for simultaneously solving both the greenhouse effect and energy crisis. In the past ten years, bismuth-based photocatalysts for environmental remediation have experienced a golden period of development. However, solar photocatalytic CO₂ conversion has only been developed over the past five years and, until now, no reviews have been published on bismuth-based photocatalysts for the photocatalytic conversion of CO₂ . For the first time, solar photocatalytic CO₂ conversion systems are reviewed herein. Synthetic methods and photocatalytic CO₂ performances of bismuth-based photocatalysts, including Sillén-structured BiOX (X=Cl, Br, I); Aurivillius-structured Bi₂ MO₆ (M=Mo, W); and Scheelite-structured BiVO₄ , Bi₂ S₃ , BiYO₃ , and BiOIO₃ , are summarized. In addition, activity-enhancing strategies for this photocatalyst family, including oxygen vacancies, bismuth-rich strategy, facet control, conventional type II heterojunction, Z-scheme heterojunction, and cocatalyst deposition, are reviewed. Finally, the main mechanistic research methods, such as in situ FTIR spectroscopy and theoretical calculations, are presented. Challenges and research trends reported in studies of bismuth-based photocatalysts for photocatalytic CO₂ conversion are discussed and summarized.