Climate adaptation by crop migration

Twilight length alters growth and flowering time in Arabidopsis via LHY/CCA1

Decades of research have uncovered how plants respond to two environmental variables that change across latitudes and over seasons: photoperiod and temperature. However, a third such variable, twilight length, has so far gone unstudied. Here, using controlled growth setups, we show that the duration of twilight affects growth and flowering time via the LHY/CCA1 clock genes in the model plant Arabidopsis. Using a series of progressively truncated no-twilight photoperiods, we also found that plants are more sensitive to twilight length compared to equivalent changes in solely photoperiods. Transcriptome and proteome analyses showed that twilight length affects reactive oxygen species metabolism, photosynthesis, and carbon metabolism. Genetic analyses suggested a twilight sensing pathway from the photoreceptors PHY E, PHY B, PHY D, and CRY2 through LHY/CCA1 to flowering modulation through the GI-FT pathway. Overall, our findings call for more nuanced models of day-length perception in plants and posit that twilight is an important determinant of plant growth and development.

Climate adaptation through crop migration requires a nexus perspective for environmental sustainability in the North China Plain

Crop migration can moderate the impacts of global warming on crop production, but its feedback on the climate and environment remains unknown. Here we develop an integrated framework to capture the climate impacts and the feedback of adaptation behaviours with the land-water-energy-carbon nexus perspective and identify opportunities to achieve the synergies between climate adaptation and environmental sustainability. We apply the framework to assess wheat and maize migration in the North China Plain and show that adaptation through wheat migration could increase crop production by ~18.5% in the 2050s, but at the cost of disproportional increment in land use (~19.2%), water use (~20.2%), energy use (~19.5%) and carbon emissions (~19.9%). Irrigation and fertilization management are critical mitigation opportunities in the framework, through which wheat migration can be optimized to reduce the climatic and environmental impacts and avoid potential carbon leakage. Our work highlights the sustainable climate adaptation to mitigate negative environmental externalities.

Fertilizer response to climate change: Evidence from corn production in China

Corn is the third most cultivated food crop in the world, and climate change has important effects on corn production and food security. China is the top user of chemical fertilizer in the world, and analyzing how to effectively manage fertilizer application in such a developing country with resource constraints is crucial. We present empirical evidence from China to demonstrate the nonlinear impact of temperature on fertilizer usage in corn production based on a panel dataset that shows 2297 corn-growing counties during 1998-2016. Our findings indicate that fertilizer usage barely changes with increasing temperatures that are below 28 °C; however, exposure to temperatures above 28 °C leads to a sharp increase in fertilizer use. The increase in temperatures in the sample period implies that fertilizer usage per hectare for corn increased by 1.5 kg. Summer corn fertilizer application in the Yellow-Huai River Valley is more sensitive to warming than in the North region. Moreover, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers have different temperature thresholds of 32 °C, 20 °C, and 20 °C, respectively, that cause significant changes.

Grain transportation and consumption reshapes the α-HCH exposure picture of China

Socio-economic activities like food trade can increase the uncertainty of human risk of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). We compared the change in model predicted α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) cancer risk (CR) with and without grain trade in mainland China. In scenario without grain logistics, α-HCH moved fast away from southern and southeastern China via northward atmospheric transport. However, the grain logistics from northeastern China delivers the α-HCH previously accumulated in northeastern sink back to densely populated areas in recent years, which enhance CR by >50 % in the southern seaboard of China. The northward movement of grain production center and recent grain deficiency in southern provinces induced by dietary pattern changes is identified as the major driving factors of the reversed transport of α-HCH. The finding highlights the potential of socio-economic activities that can otherwise offset the risk reduction effect of the geochemical cycle of POPs.

Simulating the effects of optimizing sowing date and variety shift on maize production at finer scale in northeast China under future climate

BACKGROUND

Global warming and the rising occurrences of climate extremes have become formidable challenges for maize production in northeast China. The optimization of sowing date and variety choice stand out as two economic approaches for maize to enhance its resilience to climate change. Nevertheless, assessment of the potential of optimizing sowing date and variety shift on maize yield at finer scale remains underexamined. This study investigated the implications of optimizing sowing date and implementing variety shift on maize yield from a regional perspective.

RESULTS

Compared to the reference period (1986-2005), climate change would decrease by 11.5-34.6% (the range describes the differences among climate scenarios and agro-ecological regions) maize yield in the 2050s (2040-2059) if no adaption measure were to be implemented. The combined adaption (optimizing sowing date and variety shift) can improve maize yield by 38.8 ± 11.3%, 42.7 ± 9.7% and 33.9 ± 7.6% under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The current sowing window typically falls within the projected optimal sowing window, defined as the period capable of achieving 90% of the maximum yield within the potential sowing window under future climate conditions. Consequently, the potential of the effect of optimizing sowing window on maize yield is limited. In contrast, variety shift results in higher yield improvement, as temperature rise creates favorable conditions for transplanting varieties with an extended growth period, particularly in high latitudes and mountainous regions. Under future climate, cumulative precipitation and compound drought and hot days during maize growing seasons are two key factors influencing maize production.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimization of sowing date and variety choice can improve maize yield in northeast China. In addition, maize production should consider varieties with longer growth period and drought and heat tolerance to adapt to climate change. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds

Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south-central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069-2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more-frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south-central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland-dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.

Time for growth

Plants measure the duration of metabolic activity to promote rapid growth in long days.

Global Food Security and Sustainability Issues: The Road to 2030 from Nutrition and Sustainable Healthy Diets to Food Systems Change

The accomplishment of food/nutrition security for all across sustainable food systems (SFS) is tied to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SFS is connected to all SDGs via the traditional framework of social inclusion, economic development, environmental safety, inclusivity, and the development of sustainable food systems. We suggest that, for the world to achieve sustainable development, a shift to SFS is necessary to guarantee food/nutrition security for all, while operating within planetary boundaries to protect ecosystems and adapt to and mitigate climate change. Therefore, there is a requirement for original approaches that implement systemic and more participatory methods to engage with a wider range of food system stakeholders. However, the lack of skills and tools regarding novel methodologies for food system transformation is a key obstacle to the deployment of such approaches in practice. In the first part of this review, a summary of some challenges that occur in the governance of food system transformation is given. Through a case study of plant-based proteins and their biological and chemical modification as diets shift towards alternative proteins, we demonstrate that resource-efficient food systems and food waste, through system transformation, are useful in understanding both (i) how food system transformation has ensued and (ii) how the required transformation is prohibited. Finally, we discuss the implications of food system transformation in terms of nutrition and sustainable healthy diets, which are needed to achieve changes in food safety systems in the future. The linkage of food and the environment is evident, focusing on nutrition and sustainable healthy diets. This cannot be accomplished without system change and research towards new foods and, more specifically, new proteins such as plant-based ones and their biological and chemical modification.

Plant responses to climate change, how global warming may impact on food security: a critical review

Global agricultural production must double by 2050 to meet the demands of an increasing world human population but this challenge is further exacerbated by climate change. Environmental stress, heat, and drought are key drivers in food security and strongly impacts on crop productivity. Moreover, global warming is threatening the survival of many species including those which we rely on for food production, forcing migration of cultivation areas with further impoverishing of the environment and of the genetic variability of crop species with fall out effects on food security. This review considers the relationship of climatic changes and their bearing on sustainability of natural and agricultural ecosystems, as well as the role of omics-technologies, genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, phenomics and ionomics. The use of resource saving technologies such as precision agriculture and new fertilization technologies are discussed with a focus on their use in breeding plants with higher tolerance and adaptability and as mitigation tools for global warming and climate changes. Nevertheless, plants are exposed to multiple stresses. This study lays the basis for the proposition of a novel research paradigm which is referred to a holistic approach and that went beyond the exclusive concept of crop yield, but that included sustainability, socio-economic impacts of production, commercialization, and agroecosystem management.

Building soil to reduce climate change impacts on global crop yield

Improving soil health and resilience is fundamental for sustainable food production, however the role of soil in maintaining or improving global crop productivity under climate warming is not well identified and quantified. Here, we examined the impact of soil on yield response to climate warming for four major crops (i.e., maize, wheat, rice and soybean), using global-scale datasets and random forest method. We found that each °C of warming reduced global yields of maize by 3.4%, wheat by 2.4%, rice by 0.3% and soybean by 5.0%, which were spatially heterogeneous with possible positive impacts. The random forest modeling analyses further showed that soil organic carbon (SOC), as an indicator of soil quality, dominantly explained the spatial heterogeneity of yield responses to warming and would regulate the negative warming responses. Improving SOC under the medium SOC sequestration scenario would reduce the warming-induced yield loss of maize, wheat, rice and soybean to 0.1% °C-1, 2.7% °C-1, 3.4% °C-1 and - 0.6% °C-1, respectively, avoiding an average of 3%-5% °C-1 of global yield loss. These yield benefits would occur on 53.2%, 67.8%, 51.8% and 71.6% of maize, wheat, rice and soybean planting areas, respectively, with particularly pronounced benefits in the regions with negative warming responses. With improved soil carbon, food systems are predicted to provide additional 20 to over 130 million tonnes of food that would otherwise lose due to future warming. Our findings highlight the critical role of soil in alleviating negative warming impacts on food security, especially for developing regions, given that sustainable actions on soil improvement could be taken broadly.

Wilderness areas under threat from global redistribution of agriculture

Agriculture expansion is already the primary cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss globally1,2; yet, to meet the demands of growing human populations, production is expected to have to double by 2050.3 The challenge of achieving expansion without further detriment to the environment and biodiversity is huge and potentially compounded by climate change, which may necessitate shifting agriculture zones poleward to regions with more suitable climates,4 threatening species or areas of conservation priority.5,6,7 However, the possible future overlap between agricultural suitability and wilderness areas, increasingly recognized for significant biodiversity, cultural, and climate regulation values, has not yet been examined. Here, using high-resolution climate data, we model global present and future climate suitability for 1,708 crop varieties. We project, over the next 40 years, that 2.7 million km2 of land within wilderness will become newly suitable for agriculture, equivalent to 7% of the total wilderness area outside Antarctica. The increase in potentially cultivable land in wilderness areas is particularly acute at higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere, where 76.3% of newly suitable land is currently wilderness, equivalent to 10.2% of the total wilderness area. Our results highlight an important and previously unidentified possible consequence of the disproportionate warming known to be occurring in high northern latitudes. Because we find that, globally, 72.0% of currently cultivable land is predicted to experience a net loss in total crop diversity, agricultural expansion is a major emerging threat to wilderness. Without protection, the vital integrity of these valuable areas could be irreversibly lost.

Crop adaptation to climate change: An evolutionary perspective

The disciplines of evolutionary biology and plant and animal breeding have been intertwined throughout their development, with responses to artificial selection yielding insights into the action of natural selection and evolutionary biology providing statistical and conceptual guidance for modern breeding. Here we offer an evolutionary perspective on a grand challenge of the 21st century: feeding humanity in the face of climate change. We first highlight promising strategies currently under way to adapt crops to current and future climate change. These include methods to match crop varieties with current and predicted environments and to optimize breeding goals, management practices, and crop microbiomes to enhance yield and sustainable production. We also describe the promise of crop wild relatives and recent technological innovations such as speed breeding, genomic selection, and genome editing for improving environmental resilience of existing crop varieties or for developing new crops. Next, we discuss how methods and theory from evolutionary biology can enhance these existing strategies and suggest novel approaches. We focus initially on methods for reconstructing the evolutionary history of crops and their pests and symbionts, because such historical information provides an overall framework for crop-improvement efforts. We then describe how evolutionary approaches can be used to detect and mitigate the accumulation of deleterious mutations in crop genomes, identify alleles and mutations that underlie adaptation (and maladaptation) to agricultural environments, mitigate evolutionary trade-offs, and improve critical proteins. Continuing feedback between the evolution and crop biology communities will ensure optimal design of strategies for adapting crops to climate change.

Assembly and Function of Seed Endophytes in Response to Environmental Stress

Seeds are colonized by diverse microorganisms that can improve the growth and stress resistance of host plants. Although understanding the mechanisms of plant endophyte-host plant interactions is increasing, much of this knowledge does not come from seed endophytes, particularly under environmental stress that the plant host grows to face, including biotic (e.g., pathogens, herbivores and insects) and abiotic factors (e.g., drought, heavy metals and salt). In this article, we first provided a framework for the assembly and function of seed endophytes and discussed the sources and assembly process of seed endophytes. Following that, we reviewed the impact of environmental factors on the assembly of seed endophytes. Lastly, we explored recent advances in the growth promotion and stress resistance enhancement of plants, functioning by seed endophytes under various biotic and abiotic stressors.

Future Climate Effects on Yield and Mortality of Conventional versus Modified Oil Palm in SE Asia

Palm oil is a very important commodity which will be required well into the future. However, the consequences of growing oil palm (OP) are often detrimental to the environment and contribute to climate change. On the other hand, climate change stress will decrease the production of palm oil by causing mortality and ill health of OP, as well as reducing yields. Genetically modified OP (mOP) may be produced in the future to resist climate change stress, although it will take a long time to develop and introduce, if they are successfully produced at all. It is crucial to understand the benefits mOP may bring for resisting climate change and increasing the sustainability of the palm oil industry. This paper employs modeling of suitable climate for OP using the CLIMEX program in (a) Indonesia and Malaysia, which are the first and second largest growers of OP respectively, and (b) Thailand and Papua New Guinea, which are much smaller growers. It is useful to compare these countries in terms of future palm oil production and what benefits planting mOP may bring. Uniquely, narrative models are used in the current paper to determine how climate change will affect yields of conventional OP and mOP. The effect of climate change on the mortality of mOP is also determined for the first time. The gains from using mOP were moderate, but substantial, if compared to the current production of other continents or countries. This was especially the case for Indonesia and Malaysia. The development of mOP requires a realistic appreciation of what benefits may accrue.

Process-based dynamic identification indicators of soybean chilling damage and analysis of the corresponding spatiotemporal characteristics in Northeast China

Northeast China (NEC) is one of the main soybean-producing areas among the northern-latitude regions. Climate warming leads to frequent extreme disasters, and the threat of chilling damage to soybean production in NEC cannot be ignored. The study aimed to construct a dynamic disaster identification index based on the static evaluation of soybean after the disaster, taking into account the process of soybean chilling damage and using the historical disaster records to realize the dynamic prediction and analysis before the disaster. Taking soybean in NEC as the research object, chilling damage indicators of soybeans in NEC were constructed by dividing the mature regions, using daily temperature anomaly and negative temperature anomaly day data with the comprehensive consideration of the chilling damage intensity, duration, and temperature recovery. The results showed that the comprehensive indicators determined by the cumulative value of temperature anomaly-the cumulative days of negative temperature anomaly had better applicability in NEC than the single factor indicator. The indicator results were basically consistent with the historical disaster records, and the accuracy rate of the indicator verification reached 90.9%. Based on the analysis of the constructed indicators, the frequency of delayed chilling damage in NEC showed a fluctuating downward trend from 1961 to 2020. The station ratio of delayed chilling damage in NEC showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the most obvious downward trend occurring for severe damage, followed by moderate damage, and the least obvious trend observed for light damage. The scope of chilling damage gradually narrowed, with the frequency increasing from southeast to northwest. The high-risk areas of chilling damage were concentrated mainly in the northern part of Heilongjiang Province and the East Four Leagues. The risk of chilling damage in most areas of Jilin Province and Liaoning Province was relatively low. The study results provide basic support for the risk research of soybean chilling damage and for ensuring disaster monitoring and early warnings, and the risk assessment based on the chilling damage process has positive significance for adjusting agricultural structure and improving the distribution of soybean varieties.

Contrasting area and yield responses to extreme climate contributes to climate-resilient rice production in Asia

Climate impacts on crop production components other than yield, i.e., area and cropping intensity, remain under-studied. Here, we clarify climate-crop area relationships by analyzing subnational census area and yield data for six multi-rice cropping countries in South and Southeast Asia. Extreme climate has a greater influence on the departure of area and yield from long-term trends than the average seasonal climate; precipitation and temperature in the sowing period of the wet/rainfed season have a greater influence on variability of the total annual area than in the growing period. In 57% of the country-scenario cases showing significant changes in area and/or yield, the directions of the area and yield responses to climate are not synchronized, deriving non-significant production changes under projected climates. Climate-area relationships not only limit production shocks, but also clarify uncertainties associated with climate mitigation of agricultural land, where area markedly affects the scale of mitigation.

Untargeted Metabolomics Reveals a Multi-Faceted Resistance Response to Fusarium Head Blight Mediated by the Thinopyrum elongatum Fhb7E Locus Transferred via Chromosome Engineering into Wheat

The Thinopyrum elongatum Fhb7E locus has been proven to confer outstanding resistance to Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) when transferred into wheat, minimizing yield loss and mycotoxin accumulation in grains. Despite their biological relevance and breeding implications, the molecular mechanisms underlying the resistant phenotype associated with Fhb7E have not been fully uncovered. To gain a broader understanding of processes involved in this complex plant-pathogen interaction, we analysed via untargeted metabolomics durum wheat (DW) rachises and grains upon spike inoculation with Fusarium graminearum (Fg) and water. The employment of DW near-isogenic recombinant lines carrying or lacking the Th. elongatum chromosome 7E region including Fhb7E on their 7AL arm, allowed clear-cut distinction between differentially accumulated disease-related metabolites. Besides confirming the rachis as key site of the main metabolic shift in plant response to FHB, and the upregulation of defence pathways (aromatic amino acid, phenylpropanoid, terpenoid) leading to antioxidants and lignin accumulation, novel insights were revealed. Fhb7E conferred constitutive and early-induced defence response, in which specific importance of polyamine biosynthesis, glutathione and vitamin B6 metabolisms, along with presence of multiple routes for deoxynivalenol detoxification, was highlighted. The results suggested Fhb7E to correspond to a compound locus, triggering a multi-faceted plant response to Fg, effectively limiting Fg growth and mycotoxin production.

Solutions to agricultural green water scarcity under climate change

Rain-fed agricultural systems, which solely depend on green water (i.e. soil moisture from rainfall), sustain ∼60% of global food production and are particularly vulnerable to vagaries in temperature and precipitation patterns, which are intensifying due to climate change. Here, using projections of crop water demand and green water availability under warming scenarios, we assess global agricultural green water scarcity-defined when the rainfall regime is unable to meet crop water requirements. With present-day climate conditions, food production for 890 million people is lost because of green water scarcity. Under 1.5°C and 3°C warming-the global warming projected from the current climate targets and business as usual policies-green water scarcity will affect global crop production for 1.23 and 1.45 billion people, respectively. If adaptation strategies were to be adopted to retain more green water in the soil and reduce evaporation, we find that food production loss from green water scarcity would decrease to 780 million people. Our results show that appropriate green water management strategies have the potential to adapt agriculture to green water scarcity and promote global food security.

Combinatorial impacts of elevated CO2 and temperature affect growth, development, and fruit yield in Capsicum chinense Jacq

Hot chilli ('Bhut Jolokia') (Capsicum chinense Jacq.) is the hottest chilli widely grown in the North-Eastern region of India for its high pungency. However, little information is available on its physiology, growth and developmental parameters including yield. Therefore, the present research was undertaken to study the physiological responses of Bhut Jolokia under elevated CO2 (eCO2) and temperature. Two germplasms from two different agro-climatic zones (Assam and Manipur) within the North-East region of India were collected based on the pungency. The present study explored the interactive effect of eCO2 [at 380, 550, 750 ppm (parts per million)] and temperature (at ambient, > 2 °C above ambient, and > 4 °C above ambient) on various physiological processes, and expression of some photosynthesis and capsaicin related genes in both the germplasms. Results revealed an increase (> 1-2 fold) in the net photosynthetic rate (Pn), carbohydrate content, and C: N ratio in 'Bhut Jolokia' under eCO2 and elevated temperature regimes compared to ambient conditions within the germplasms. Gene expression studies revealed an up-regulation of photosynthesis-related genes such as Cs RuBPC2 (Ribulose biphosphate carboxylase 2) and Cs SPS (Sucrose phosphate synthase) which, explained the higher Pn under eCO2 and temperature conditions. Both the germplasm showed better performance under CTGT-II (Carbon dioxide Temperature Gradient Tunnel having 550 ppm CO2 and temperature of 2 °C above ambient) in terms of various physiological parameters and up-regulation of key photosynthesis-related genes. An up-regulation of the Cs  capsaicin synthase gene was also evident in the study, which could be due to the metabolite readjustment in 'Bhut Jolokia'. In addition, the cultivar from Manipur (cv. 1) had less fruit drop compared to the cultivar from Assam (cv. 2) in CTGT II. The data indicated that 550 ppm of eCO2 and temperature elevation of > 2 °C above the ambient with CTGT-II favored the growth and development of 'Bhut Jolokia'. Thus, results suggest that Bhut Jolokia grown under the elevation of CO2 up to 550 ppm and temperature above 2 °C than ambient may support the growth, development, and yield.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12298-023-01294-9.

The impact of climate change on crop mix shift in the Nordic region

Growing evidence of anthropogenic climate change suggests marked changes in agricultural ecosystems and crop suitability across the globe. Northern Europe is primarily predicted to see beneficial impacts through crop shifts towards the North of the region. However, studies that quantify the magnitude of climate induced past shifts and the likely future shifts in the agricultural land use patterns are lacking. We use a rich municipality level longitudinal data set from the Nordic region from 1979 to 2012 to study farmers' adaptation to climate change in terms of crop mix shift. We model four land use classes, namely, cereal, grass, oil seed, and 'others', a category summing the remaining agricultural land uses. On top of climatic variables, we include biophysical and economic variables as controls in the regression. We utilize a multinomial fractional logit regression to estimate changes in the land use mix. The projection results indicate that both the near future (2041-2070) and the far future (2071-2100) projected climate are likely to increase the area share of cereal and at the same time decrease the share of grass in the Nordic region relative to the baseline climate (1981-2010). However, these results vary across the region. The results generally suggest a moderate climate induced impact on the spatial crop distributions. Our projection results show a moderate shift in agricultural crop distributions depending on the climate scenario and the time-horizon. Depending on the climate change scenario, grass and cereal are expected to shift by up to 92.8 and 178.7 km, respectively, towards opposite directions; grass towards the South-West and cereal towards the North-East. Overall, the projected areal expansion of cereal towards the North-East is expected to lead to increased environmental pressure.

Impact of climate perturbations on seeds and seed quality for global agriculture

In agriculture, seeds are the most basic and vital input on which croplands productivity depends. These implies a good starting material, good production lines and good storage options. High-quality seed lots must be free of pests and pathogens and contain a required degree of genetic purity. Seeds need also to be stored in good condition between harvest and later sowing, to insure later on the field a good plant density and higher crop yield. In general, these parameters are already widely accepted and considered in many countries where advanced technologies evaluate them. However, the more and more frequently devastating climate changes observed around the world has put seed quality under threat, and current seeds may not be adapted to hazardous and unpredictable conditions. Climate-related factors such as temperature and water availability directly affect seed development and later germination. For these reasons, investigating seed quality in response to climate changes is a step to propose new crop varieties and practices that will bring solutions for our future.

Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates

Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3-11% historically to 10-20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.

Climate Refuges in Nigeria for Oil Palm in Response to Future Climate and Fusarium Wilt Stresses

The detrimental stresses of future climate change are well known and decisions are required to reduce their effects. Climate and disease stresses cause severe damage to plants and it is essential to understand how they will respond. Oil palm (OP) is an Fusarium important crop for many countries. The palm originated in Africa, where palm oil is produced in the largest amount within the continent by Nigeria. OP becomes stressed by climate change and wilt, a devastating disease of OP in Africa. Previous methods to determine the suitability of future climate on OP in continents and whole countries were applied to Nigeria, which is the first time an individual country has been assessed in this manner. Climate maps of Nigeria were divided equally into 16 regions from north to south and east to west to determine the future suitable climate for growing OP. CLIMEX and narrative modelling were used to determine suitability for growing OP and Fusarium wilt incidence for current time and 2050. Maps from published papers were employed directly thereby facilitating the procedure. A distinct latitudinal increasing trend from north to south in suitable climate was observed, which was unexpected. A decreasing longitudinal trend from west to east was also observed. These differences in suitable climates may allow refuges for OP in the future. The growth of OP in the south of Nigeria may be largely unaffected by climate change by 2050, unlike the north. The procedures allow policy decisions at state and national levels to be made from empirical data, which do not otherwise exist. States with low amounts of OP and where the climate deteriorates greatly, could usefully be abandoned. Other low palm oil producers, where the climate does not deteriorate greatly, could be encouraged to develop OP. Little requires to be done in the high producing states where the climate does not deteriorate. In all cases, the environmental impacts require thorough assessment. Climate change requires reduction as indicated in recent Conference of the Parties meetings.

Seed priming with brassinolides improves growth and reinforces antioxidative defenses under normal and heat stress conditions in seedlings of Brassica juncea

Environmental stresses pose a major challenge for plant researchers to fulfill increasing food demand. Researchers are trying to generate high-yielding and stress-tolerant or resistant varieties using classical genetics and modern gene-editing tools; however, both approaches have limitations. Chemical treatments emerged as an alternative to improve yield and impart stress resilience. Brassinosteroids (BRs) are a group of phytohormones that regulate various biological processes, including stress management. With foliar spray methods, BR treatments showed promising results but are not economically feasible. We hypothesize that priming of seeds, which requires lesser amounts of BRs, could be equally effective in promoting growth and stress tolerance. Owing to this notion, we analyzed the impact of priming seeds with selected BRs, namely, 24-epibrassinolide (EBL) and 28-homobrassinolide (HBL), in Brassica juncea under normal and heat shock stress conditions. Seeds primed with BRs and grown until seedlings stage at normal conditions (20°C) were subjected to a heat shock (35°C) for a few hours, relating to what plants experience in natural conditions. Heat shock reduced the growth and biomass with an increased accumulation of reactive oxygen species. As anticipated, BRs treatments significantly improved the growth and physiological parameters with an enhanced antioxidant defense under both conditions. Transcriptional analyses revealed that BRs concomitantly induce growth and oxidative stress-responsive gene expression via the canonical BR-signaling pathway. Transfer of unstressed and heat-shock-treated seedlings to field conditions demonstrated the long-term effectivity of BR-priming. Our results showed seed priming with BRs could improve growth and resilience against heat shock; hence, it appears to be a viable strategy to enhance crop yields and stress tolerance.

Paclobutrazol improves surface water use efficiency by regulating allometric trait behavior in maize

Paclobutrazol (PBZ) role in drought management of maize is least understood. In maize, root traits are linked with surface water management. Over three years, early and terminal deficit irrigation (EDI and TDI) with or without PBZ were imposed on DKC-9144 and PG-2475 maize varieties. Several allometric parameters viz. stem height, stem diameter, leaf area and root traits along with physiological processes were measured. Implication of these parameters in the management of soil surface irrigation in terms of water use efficiency (WUE) was demonstrated in maize. Increased number of lateral roots and root number density in DKC-9144 provided more surface area for water absorption for better management of EDI. Root growth rates showed a similar pattern with root length, root surface areas, and root numbers in EDI. Elevated expressions of ZmRTCL, ZmRTCS and ZmARF34 in EDI and EDI plus PBZ were associated with seminal roots and root laterals initiation. Under TDI alone or in combination with PBZ, root lengths (BRL, CRL, SRL) and root surface areas varied in DKC-9144 and PG-2475 over control. Furthermore, correlation analysis showed that decrease in WUE under TDI was significantly associated with a reduction in stem thickness and leaf surface area. For WUE_N in TDI and PBZ plus TDI, structural equation modelling proposed, brace root surface area (BRSA_N) as a positive contributor, while a negative contributor was seminal root surface area (SRSA_N). Present study explained the importance of specific root traits and their association with other allometric parameters for improving WUE in DKC-9144 variety of maize and the crop in general.

Matches and mismatches between the global distribution of major food crops and climate suitability

Over the course of history, humans have moved crops from their regions of origin to new locations across the world. The social, cultural and economic drivers of these movements have generated differences not only between current distributions of crops and their climatic origins, but also between crop distributions and climate suitability for their production. Although these mismatches are particularly important to inform agricultural strategies on climate change adaptation, they have, to date, not been quantified consistently at the global level. Here, we show that the relationships between the distributions of 12 major food crops and climate suitability for their yields display strong variation globally. After investigating the role of biophysical, socio-economic and historical factors, we report that high-income world regions display a better match between crop distribution and climate suitability. In addition, although crops are farmed predominantly in the same climatic range as their wild progenitors, climate suitability is not necessarily higher there, a pattern that reflects the legacy of domestication history on current crop distribution. Our results reveal how far the global distribution of major crops diverges from their climatic optima and call for greater consideration of the multiple dimensions of the crop socio-ecological niche in climate change adaptive strategies.

Data-driven, participatory characterization of farmer varieties discloses teff breeding potential under current and future climates

In smallholder farming systems, traditional farmer varieties of neglected and underutilized species (NUS) support the livelihoods of millions of growers and consumers. NUS combine cultural and agronomic value with local adaptation, and transdisciplinary methods are needed to fully evaluate their breeding potential. Here, we assembled and characterized the genetic diversity of a representative collection of 366 Ethiopian teff (Eragrostis tef) farmer varieties and breeding materials, describing their phylogenetic relations and local adaptation on the Ethiopian landscape. We phenotyped the collection for its agronomic performance, involving local teff farmers in a participatory variety evaluation. Our analyses revealed environmental patterns of teff genetic diversity and allowed us to identify 10 genetic clusters associated with climate variation and with uneven spatial distribution. A genome-wide association study was used to identify loci and candidate genes related to phenology, yield, local adaptation, and farmers’ appreciation. The estimated teff genomic offset under climate change scenarios highlighted an area around lake Tana where teff cropping may be most vulnerable to climate change. Our results show that transdisciplinary approaches may efficiently propel untapped NUS farmer varieties into modern breeding to foster more resilient and sustainable cropping systems.

Small farms support the livelihoods of about two billion people worldwide. Smallholder farmers often rely on local varieties of crops and use less irrigation and fertilizer than large producers. But smallholdings can be vulnerable to weather events and climate change. Data-driven research approaches may help to identify the needs of farmers, taking into account traditional knowledge and cultural practices to enhance the sustainability of certain crops.

Teff is a cereal crop that plays a critical role in the culture and diets of Ethiopian communities. It is also a super food appreciated on international markets for its nutritional value. Rural smallholder farmers in Ethiopia rely on the crop for subsistence and income and make up the bulk of the country’s agricultural system. Many grow local varieties with tremendous genetic diversity. Scientists, in collaboration with farmers, could tap that diversity to produce more productive or climate-resilient types of teff, both for national and international markets.

Woldeyohannes, Iohannes et al. produced the first large-scale genetic, agronomic and climatic study of traditional teff varieties. In the experiments, Woldeyohannes and Iohannes et al. sequenced the genomes of 366 Ethiopian teff varieties and evaluated their agronomic value in common gardens. The team collaborated with 35 local farmers to understand their preference of varieties and traits. They then conducted a genome-wide association study to assess the crops’ productivity and their adaptations to local growing conditions and farmer preferences. Genetic changes that speed up teff maturation and flowering time could meet small farmers’ needs to secure teff harvest. Woldeyohannes, Iohannes et al. also identified a region in Ethiopia, where local teff varieties may struggle to adapt to climate change. Genetic modifications may help the crop to adapt to frequent droughts that may be a common characteristic of future climates.

The experiments reveal the importance of incorporating traditional knowledge from smallholder farmers into data-driven crop improvement efforts considering genetics and climate science. This multidisciplinary approach may help to improve food security and protect local genetic diversity on small farms. It may also help to ensure that agricultural advances fairly and equitably benefit small farmers.

Variability in Crop Response to Spatiotemporal Variation in Climate in China, 1980–2014

As the population increases and climate extremes become more frequent, the pressure on food supply increases. A better understanding of the influence of climate variations on crop yield in China would be of great benefit to global food security. In this study, gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data were used to quantify the climate sensitivity of corn, rice, and spring wheat yields, and identify the spatiotemporal variation relationship between climate and yields from 1980 to 2014. The results showed that rice and corn were more sensitive to climate variations than spring wheat, both spatially and temporally. Photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) was found to be beneficial to rice in northeast China and the Yangtze River basin, as well as corn in the south and spring wheat in Xinjiang, but not to rice in the south of the Yangtze River and spring wheat in the southeast coast. The temperature centroid shift was the main driving factor causing the movement of the centroid of the three crops. For every 1 km shift of the temperature centroid, the corn and rice yield centroids moved 0.97 km and 0.34 km, respectively. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of climate variations on agricultural yields in different regions of China.

Does Abiotic Host Stress Favour Dothideomycete-Induced Disease Development?

Dothideomycetes represent one of the largest and diverse class of fungi. This class exhibits a wide diversity of lifestyles, including endophytic, saprophytic, pathogenic and parasitic organisms. Plant pathogenic fungi are particularly common within the Dothideomycetes and are primarily found within the orders of Pleosporales, Botryosphaeriales and Capnodiales. As many Dothideomycetes can infect crops used as staple foods around the world, such as rice, wheat, maize or banana, this class of fungi is highly relevant to food security. In the context of climate change, food security faces unprecedented pressure. The benefits of a more plant-based diet to both health and climate have long been established, therefore the demand for crop production is expected to increase. Further adding pressure on food security, both the prevalence of diseases caused by fungi and the yield losses associated with abiotic stresses on crops are forecast to increase in all climate change scenarios. Furthermore, abiotic stresses can greatly influence the outcome of the host-pathogen interaction. This review focuses on the impact of abiotic stresses on the host in the development of diseases caused by Dothideomycete fungi.

Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production

Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focus of grain production from West to East. The warming trend prevailing over the past decades in the summer and winter seasons has been accompanied by a South to North shift in the harvested areas. The combination of these two processes has meant that the north-eastern sector of the European grain chessboard has emerged as the main beneficiary. There, the relatively low sensitivity of cereals to climatic change plus high economic growth rates have been accompanied by the most dynamic increases in cereal yields on the continent. As a result, a modern version of the 3000 year-old grain distribution system of the Ancient World is being restored before our eyes. One noteworthy finding is that increasing January–March temperatures have had a significant positive impact on wheat yields from Northern to South-Eastern Europe, and this is, at least in part, compensating for the negative impact of summer warming.

Complex drought patterns robustly explain global yield loss for major crops

Multi-purpose crops as maize, rice, soybean, and wheat are key in the debate concerning food, land, water and energy security and sustainability. While strong evidence exists on the effects of climate variability on the production of these crops, so far multifaceted attributes of droughts-magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing-have been tackled mainly separately, for a limited part of the cropping season, or over small regions. Here, a more comprehensive assessment is provided on how droughts with their complex patterns-given by their compound attributes-are consistently related to negative impacts on crop yield on a global scale. Magnitude and frequency of both climate and yield variability are jointly analysed from 1981 to 2016 considering multiscale droughts, i.e., dry conditions occurring with different durations and timings along the whole farming season, through two analogous and standardized indicators enabling comparison among crops, countries, and years. Mainly winter wheat and then spring wheat, soybean and the main maize's season reveal high susceptibility of yield under more complex drought patterns than previously assessed. The second maize's season and rice present less marked and more uncertain results, respectively. Overall, southern and eastern Europe, the Americas and sub-Saharan Africa presents multi-crop susceptibility, with eastern Europe, Middle East and Central Asia appearing critical regions for the most vulnerable crop, which is wheat. Finally, yield losses for wheat and soybean clearly worsen when moving from moderate to extreme multiscale droughts.

Complex drought patterns robustly explain global yield loss for major crops

Multi-purpose crops as maize, rice, soybean, and wheat are key in the debate concerning food, land, water and energy security and sustainability. While strong evidence exists on the effects of climate variability on the production of these crops, so far multifaceted attributes of droughts-magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing-have been tackled mainly separately, for a limited part of the cropping season, or over small regions. Here, a more comprehensive assessment is provided on how droughts with their complex patterns-given by their compound attributes-are consistently related to negative impacts on crop yield on a global scale. Magnitude and frequency of both climate and yield variability are jointly analysed from 1981 to 2016 considering multiscale droughts, i.e., dry conditions occurring with different durations and timings along the whole farming season, through two analogous and standardized indicators enabling comparison among crops, countries, and years. Mainly winter wheat and then spring wheat, soybean and the main maize's season reveal high susceptibility of yield under more complex drought patterns than previously assessed. The second maize's season and rice present less marked and more uncertain results, respectively. Overall, southern and eastern Europe, the Americas and sub-Saharan Africa presents multi-crop susceptibility, with eastern Europe, Middle East and Central Asia appearing critical regions for the most vulnerable crop, which is wheat. Finally, yield losses for wheat and soybean clearly worsen when moving from moderate to extreme multiscale droughts.

Cold acclimation increases Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae) survival during exposure to freezing temperatures

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, is the vector of the pathogenic bacteria that causes Huanglongbing, the most devasting disease affecting citrus worldwide. As cultivation of citrus tends to expand northward, the tolerance of psyllids to freezing temperatures needs to be investigated. While mortality of D. citri to cold temperature has been previously studied, much less is known regarding the acclimation potential of psyllids to cold temperatures. We first evaluated cold resistance of D. citri depending on color morph and sex. Subsequently, we compared mortality of D. citri at -4 °C for 10 hours between unacclimated psyllids, psyllids that were gradually acclimated to cold over 1 or 2 weeks, and psyllids intermittently acclimated also for 1 or 2 weeks. We did not find major differences in cold resistance between color morphs and sex. We found that after 1 week of gradual acclimation, the survival of psyllids at -4 °C increased to 86%, compared to 20% in the control group. Survival did not increase after the second week of gradual acclimation. Although intermittent acclimation improved survival compared to the control group, it was less effective than gradual acclimation with a survival at 30% and 70% after 1 and 2 weeks of acclimation, respectively, although this difference with gradual acclimation was not significant at week 2. These data show that gradual cold acclimation allows D. citri to survive brief periods below freezing. It may serve as a mechanism responsible for increasing northern establishment of this pest.

Scaling up neodomestication for climate-ready crops

We can increase the stability of our food systems against environmental variability and climate change by following the footsteps of our ancestors and domesticating edible wild plants. Reinforced by recent advances in comparative genomics and gene editing technologies, neodomestication opens possibilities for a rapid generation of new crops. By starting the candidate selection pipeline with climatic parameters, we orient neodomestication efforts to increase food security against climate change. We highlight the fact that the edible species conservation and characterization will be key in this process. Utilization of genetic resources, entrusted to conservationists and researchers by local communities, has to be conducted with highest ethical standards and benefit-sharing in mind.

Crop traits enabling yield gains under more frequent extreme climatic events

Climate change (CC) in central China will change seasonal patterns of agricultural production through increasingly frequent extreme climatic events (ECEs). Breeding climate-resilient wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes may mitigate adverse effects of ECEs on crop productivity. To reveal crop traits conducive to long-term yield improvement in the target population of environments, we created 8,192 virtual genotypes with contrasting but realistic ranges of phenology, productivity and waterlogging tolerance. Using these virtual genotypes, we conducted a genotype (G) by environment (E) by management (M) factorial analysis (G×E×M) using locations distributed across the entire cereal cropping zone in mid-China. The G×E×M invoked locally-specific sowing dates under future climates that were premised on shared socioeconomic pathways SSP5-8.5, with a time horizon centred on 2080. Across the simulated adaptation landscape, productivity was primarily driven by yield components and phenology (average grain yield increase of 6-69% across sites with optimal combinations of these traits). When incident solar radiation was not limiting carbon assimilation, ideotypes with higher grain yields were characterised by earlier flowering, higher radiation-use efficiency and larger maximum kernel size. At sites with limited solar radiation, crops required longer growing periods to realise genetic yield potential, although higher radiation-use efficiency and larger maximum kernel size were again prospective traits enabling higher rates of yield gains. By 2080, extreme waterlogging stress in some regions of mid-China will impact substantially on productivity, with yield penalties of up to 1,010 kg ha^-1. Ideotypes with optimal G×M could mitigate yield penalty caused by waterlogging by up to 15% under future climates. These results help distil promising crop trait by best management practice combinations that enable higher yields and robust adaptation to future climates and more frequent extreme climatic events, including flash flooding and soil waterlogging.

Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.

Optimised and systematic suitable climate modelling confirms future longitudinal-trends for growing oil palm in Africa

Palms are iconic plants. Oil palms are very important economically and originate in Africa where they can act as a model for palms in general. The effect of future climate on the growth of oil palm will be very detrimental. Latitudinal migration of tropical crops to climate refuges may be impossible, and longitudinal migration has only been confirmed for oil palm, of all the tropical crops. The previous method to determine the longitudinal trend for oil palm used the longitudes of various countries in Africa and plotted these against the percentage suitable climate for growing oil palms in each country. An increasing longitudinal trend was observed from west to east. However, the longitudes of the countries were randomly distributed which may have introduced bias and the procedure was time consuming. The present report presents an optimised and systematic procedure that divided the regions, as presented on a map derived from a CLIMEX model, into ten equal sectors and the percentage suitable climates for growing oil palm were determined for each sector. This approach was quicker, systematic and straight forward and will be useful for management of oil palm plantations under climate change. The method confirmed and validated the trends reported in the original method although the suitability values were often lower and there was less spread of values around the trend. The values for the CSIRO MK3.0 and MIROC H models demonstrated considerable similarities to each other, contributing to validation of the method. The procedure of dividing maps equally into sectors derived from models, could be used for other crops, regions, or systems more generally, where the alternative may be a more superficial visual examination of the maps. Methods are required to mitigate the effects of climate change and stakeholders need to contribute more actively to the current climate debate with tangible actions.

Mediterranean White Lupin Landraces as a Valuable Genetic Reserve for Breeding

Legumes crops are important for sustainable agriculture and global food security. Among them white lupin (Lupinus albus L.), is characterized by exceptional protein content of high nutritional value, competitive to that of soybean (Glycine max) and is well adapted to rainfed agriculture. However, its high seed-quinolizidine alkaloid (QA) content impedes its direct integration to human diet and animal feed. Additionally, its cultivation is not yet intensive, remains confined to local communities and marginal lands in Mediterranean agriculture, while adaptation to local microclimates restrains its cultivation from expanding globally. Hence, modern white lupin breeding aims to exploit genetic resources for the development of "sweet" elite cultivars, resilient to biotic adversities and well adapted for cultivation on a global level. Towards this aim, we evaluated white lupin local landrace germplasm from Greece, since the country is considered a center of white lupin diversity, along with cultivars and breeding lines for comparison. Seed morphological diversity and molecular genetic relationships were investigated. Most of the landraces were distinct from cultivars, indicating the uniqueness of their genetic make-up. The presence of pauper "sweet" marker allele linked to low seed QA content in some varieties was detected in one landrace, two breeding lines, and the cultivars. However, QA content in the examined genotypes did not relate with the marker profile, indicating that the marker's predictive power is limited in this material. Marker alleles for vernalization unresponsiveness were detected in eight landraces and alleles for anthracnose resistance were found in two landraces, pointing to the presence of promising germplasm for utilization in white lupin breeding. The rich lupin local germplasm genetic diversity and the distinct genotypic composition compared to elite cultivars, highlights its potential use as a source of important agronomic traits to support current breeding efforts and assist its integration to modern sustainable agriculture.

Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming

Global aridification is projected to intensify. Yet, our knowledge of its potential impacts on species ranges remains limited. Here, we investigate global aridity velocity and its overlap with three sectors (natural protected areas, agricultural areas, and urban areas) and terrestrial biodiversity in historical (1979 through 2016) and future periods (2050 through 2099), with and without considering vegetation physiological response to rising CO₂ Both agricultural and urban areas showed a mean drying velocity in history, although the concurrent global aridity velocity was on average +0.05/+0.20 km/yr^-1 (no CO₂ effects/with CO₂ effects; "+" denoting wetting). Moreover, in drylands, the shifts of vegetation greenness isolines were found to be significantly coupled with the tracks of aridity velocity. In the future, the aridity velocity in natural protected areas is projected to change from wetting to drying across RCP (representative concentration pathway) 2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. When accounting for spatial distribution of terrestrial taxa (including plants, mammals, birds, and amphibians), the global aridity velocity would be -0.15/-0.02 km/yr^-1 ("-" denoting drying; historical), -0.12/-0.15 km/yr^-1 (RCP2.6), -0.36/-0.10 km/yr^-1 (RCP6.0), and -0.75/-0.29 km/yr^-1 (RCP8.5), with amphibians particularly negatively impacted. Under all scenarios, aridity velocity shows much higher multidirectionality than temperature velocity, which is mainly poleward. These results suggest that aridification risks may significantly influence the distribution of terrestrial species besides warming impacts and further impact the effectiveness of current protected areas in future, especially under RCP8.5, which best matches historical CO₂ emissions [C. R. Schwalm et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 19656-19657 (2020)].

Assessing the adaptability of maize phenology to climate change: The role of anthropogenic-management practices

Phenology has been regarded as an essential bio-indicator of climate change widely. Quantifying the crop phenological changes caused by climate change and anthropogenic-management practices can help formulate effective climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, the effects of climate change and anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenology (spring, summer, and intercropping maize) in China were distinguished based on historical meteorological and phenological data (1981-2010) of 114 stations using the first-order difference regression method. Our results show: (1) The vegetative growing period of spring and intercropping maize was extended, whereas that of summer maize was shortened. The reproductive growing periods of spring, summer, and intercropping maize were extended. (2) Isolated impacts of climate change shortened the vegetative growing period of spring maize, summer maize, and intercropping maize by 0.19, 1.06, and 3.12 d decade^-1, respectively, while the reproductive growing period was extended by 0.19, 0.74, and 3.47 d decade^-1, respectively. (3) The contribution of temperature to maize phenology was greater in the northwest inland maize zone and north spring maize zone than in other regions, whereas the contribution of sunshine hours was higher in Huang-Huai Plain intercropping maize zone and the southwest mountain hills maize zone. (4) The effects of anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenological stages such as sowing, emergence, and maturity were generally greater than that of climate change, which has delayed the phenological stages of summer and intercropping maize and extended the growing period of spring maize. The focus should be paid to the emergence, jointing, and milky stages to increase the water use efficiency in the northwest inland maize zone. The findings provide a scientific basis for improving the adaptability of agricultural systems in climate change.

Overexpression of the CaHB12 transcription factor in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) improves drought tolerance

The Coffea arabica HB12 gene (CaHB12), which encodes a transcription factor belonging to the HD-Zip I subfamily, is upregulated under drought, and its constitutive overexpression (35S:CaHB12^OX) improves the Arabidopsis thaliana tolerance to drought and salinity stresses. Herein, we generated transgenic cotton events constitutively overexpressing the CaHB12 gene, characterized these events based on their increased tolerance to water deficit, and exploited the gene expression level from the CaHB12 network. The segregating events Ev8.29.1, Ev8.90.1, and Ev23.36.1 showed higher photosynthetic yield and higher water use efficiency under severe water deficit and permanent wilting point conditions compared to wild-type plants. Under well-irrigated conditions, these three promising transformed events showed an equivalent level of Abscisic acid (ABA) and decreased Indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) accumulation, and a higher putrescine/(spermidine + spermine) ratio in leaf tissues was found in the progenies of at least two transgenic cotton events compared to non-transgenic plants. In addition, genes that are considered as modulated in the A. thaliana 35S:CaHB12^OX line were also shown to be modulated in several transgenic cotton events maintained under field capacity conditions. The upregulation of GhPP2C and GhSnRK2 in transgenic cotton events maintained under permanent wilting point conditions suggested that CaHB12 might act enhancing the ABA-dependent pathway. All these data confirmed that CaHB12 overexpression improved the tolerance to water deficit, and the transcriptional modulation of genes related to the ABA signaling pathway or downstream genes might enhance the defense responses to drought. The observed decrease in IAA levels indicates that CaHB12 overexpression can prevent leaf abscission in plants under or after stress. Thus, our findings provide new insights on CaHB12 gene and identify several promising cotton events for conducting field trials on water deficit tolerance and agronomic performance.

Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

Forecasting rice latitude adaptation through a daylength-sensing-based environment adaptation simulator

Global climate change necessitates crop varieties with good environmental adaptability. As a proxy for climate adaptation, crop breeders could select for adaptability to different latitudes, but the lengthy procedures for that slow development. Here, we combined molecular technologies with a streamlined in-house screening method to facilitate rapid selection for latitude adaptation. We established the daylength-sensing-based environment adaptation simulator (DEAS) to assess rice latitude adaptation status via the transcriptional dynamics of florigen genes at different latitudes. The DEAS predicted the florigen expression profiles in rice varieties with high accuracy. Furthermore, the DEAS showed potential for application in different crops. Incorporating the DEAS into conventional breeding programmes would help to develop cultivars for climate adaptation.