Reversal of trends in global fine particulate matter air pollution

Deep-learning architecture for PM2.5 concentration prediction: A review

Accurately predicting the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is crucial for evaluating air pollution levels and public exposure. Recent advancements have seen a significant rise in using deep learning (DL) models for forecasting PM2.5 concentrations. Nonetheless, there is a lack of unified and standardized frameworks for assessing the performance of DL-based PM2.5 prediction models. Here we extensively reviewed those DL-based hybrid models for forecasting PM2.5 levels according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We examined the similarities and differences among various DL models in predicting PM2.5 by comparing their complexity and effectiveness. We categorized PM2.5 DL methodologies into seven types based on performance and application conditions, including four types of DL-based models and three types of hybrid learning models. Our research indicates that established deep learning architectures are commonly used and respected for their efficiency. However, many of these models often fall short in terms of innovation and interpretability. Conversely, models hybrid with traditional approaches, like deterministic and statistical models, exhibit high interpretability but compromise on accuracy and speed. Besides, hybrid DL models, representing the pinnacle of innovation among the studied models, encounter issues with interpretability. We introduce a novel three-dimensional evaluation framework, i.e., Dataset-Method-Experiment Standard (DMES) to unify and standardize the evaluation for PM2.5 predictions using DL models. This review provides a framework for future evaluations of DL-based models, which could inspire researchers to standardize DL model usage in PM2.5 prediction and improve the quality of related studies.

Associations of PM2.5 exposure with emergency department visits and readmissions among preterm infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the association of ambient air pollution (particulate matter, PM2.5) exposure with medically attended acute respiratory illness among infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD).

STUDY DESIGN

Single center, retrospective cohort study of preterm infants with BPD in Metropolitan Philadelphia. Multivariable logistic regression quantified associations of annual mean PM2.5 exposure (per μg/m3) at the census block group level with medically attended acute respiratory illness, defined as emergency department (ED) visits or hospital readmissions within a year after first hospital discharge adjusting for age at neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) discharge, year, sex, race, insurance, BPD severity, and census tract deprivation. As a secondary analysis, we examined whether BPD severity modified the associations.

RESULTS

Of the 378 infants included in the analysis, 189 were non-Hispanic Black and 235 were publicly insured. Census block PM2.5 level was not significantly associated with medically attended acute respiratory illnesses, ED visits, or hospital readmissions in the full study cohort. We observed significant effect modification by BPD grade; each 1 µg/m3 higher annual PM2.5 exposure was medically attended acute respiratory illness (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.65, 95% CI: 1.06-2.63) among infants with Grade 1 BPD but not among infants with grade 3 BPD (aOR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.47-1.48) (interaction p = .024).

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative PM2.5 exposure in the year after NICU discharge was not significantly associated with medically attended acute respiratory illness among infants with BPD. However, infants with Grade 1 BPD had significantly higher odds with higher exposures. If replicated, these findings could inform anticipatory guidance for families of these infants to avoid outdoor activities during high pollution days after NICU discharge.

Short-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone: Source Impacts and Attributable Mortalities

Short-term exposure to particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are important risk factors for human health. Despite the awareness of reducing attributable health burden, region-specific and source-specific strategies remain less explored due to the gap between precursor emissions and health effects. In this study, we isolate the health burden of individual sector sources of PM2.5 and O3 precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), across the globe. Specifically, we estimate mortalities attributable to short-term exposure using machine-learning-based daily exposure estimates and quantify sectoral impacts using chemical transport model simulations. Globally, short-term exposure to PM2.5 and O3 result in 713.5 (95% Confidence Interval: 598.8-843.3) thousand and 496.3 (371.3-646.1) thousand mortalities in 2019, respectively, of which 12.5% are contributed by fuel-related NOx emissions from transportation, energy, and industry. Sectoral impacts from anthropogenic NOx and VOC emissions on health burden vary significantly among seasons and regions, requiring a target shift from transportation in winter to industry in summer for East Asia, for instance. Emission control and health management are additionally complicated by unregulated natural influences during climatic events. Fire-sourced NOx and VOC emissions, respectively, contribute to 8.5 (95% CI: 6.2-11.7) thousand and 4.8 (3.6-5.9) thousand PM2.5 and O3 mortalities, particularly for tropics with high vulnerability to climate change. Additionally, biogenic VOC emissions during heatwaves contribute to 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) thousand O3-introduced mortalities, posing challenges in urban planning for high-income regions, where biogenic contributions to health burden during heatwaves are 13% of anthropogenic contributions annually. Our study provides important implications for temporally dynamic and sector-targeted emission control and health management strategies, which are of urgency under the projection of continuously increasing energy consumption and changing climate.

EAACI guidelines on environmental science for allergy and asthma: The impact of short-term exposure to outdoor air pollutants on asthma-related outcomes and recommendations for mitigation measures

The EAACI Guidelines on the impact of short-term exposure to outdoor pollutants on asthma-related outcomes provide recommendations for prevention, patient care and mitigation in a framework supporting rational decisions for healthcare professionals and patients to individualize and improve asthma management and for policymakers and regulators as an evidence-informed reference to help setting legally binding standards and goals for outdoor air quality at international, national and local levels. The Guideline was developed using the GRADE approach and evaluated outdoor pollutants referenced in the current Air Quality Guideline of the World Health Organization as single or mixed pollutants and outdoor pesticides. Short-term exposure to all pollutants evaluated increases the risk of asthma-related adverse outcomes, especially hospital admissions and emergency department visits (moderate certainty of evidence at specific lag days). There is limited evidence for the impact of traffic-related air pollution and outdoor pesticides exposure as well as for the interventions to reduce emissions. Due to the quality of evidence, conditional recommendations were formulated for all pollutants and for the interventions reducing outdoor air pollution. Asthma management counselled by the current EAACI guidelines can improve asthma-related outcomes but global measures for clean air are needed to achieve significant impact.

Aerosol in global oceanic regions: Four-decade trends, spatial patterns, and policy implications

High aerosol loadings are observed not only in megacities on continents but also in oceanic regions like the Bohai Sea. This work provides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) across different ocean regions worldwide over the past four decades, using remote sensing reanalysis data. The mean AOD value across all oceanic grids is approximately 0.112, with higher levels recorded in the Central Atlantic (~0.206), followed by the North Indian Ocean (~0.201), and the Western North Pacific (~0.197). A latitudinal analysis reveals that high AOD values are predominantly found in the Northern Hemisphere's oceanic regions, especially between latitudes 0° and 70° N. Except for the Gulf of California and Hudson Bay, AOD values in the other fourteen surveyed inland seas surpass the mean levels found at similar latitudes in oceanic regions. Among which, the Bohai Sea stands out as the most polluted oceanic region with AOD value of 0.35. Over the last four decades, AOD trends have revealed a significant decrease across about 89.5 % of global oceanic grids, while an increase in AOD is observed in low-latitude oceanic areas (30° S-30° N). Investigation into inland seas shows that nearly two-thirds have experienced a declining AOD trend, while sharply upward trends in AOD are primarily found in Asia. The Bohai Sea shows the largest increase in AOD, with an annual growth rate of 1.4 %. The turning-points of the AOD in each inland sea confirm the success of regional emission control policies initiated on the adjacent continents. To improve air quality in inland seas like the Bohai Sea, adjusting industrial layouts, such as relocating heavy industries from the surrounding coastal cities' proximities to areas near open seas, could significantly benefit public health.

Combined short-term and long-term emission controls improve air quality sustainably in China

The effectiveness of national policies for air pollution control has been demonstrated, but the relative effectiveness of short-term emission reduction measures in comparison with national policies has not. Here we show that short-term abatement measures during important international events substantially reduced PM2.5 concentrations, but air quality rebounded to pre-event levels after the measures ceased. Long-term adherence to strict emission reduction policies led to successful decreases of 54% in PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, and 23% in atmospheric nitrogen deposition in China from 2012 to 2020. Incentivized by "blue skies" type campaigns, economic development and reactive nitrogen pollution are quickly decoupled, showing that a combination of inspiring but aggressive short-term measures and effective but durable long-term policies delivers sustainable air quality improvement. However, increased ammonia concentrations, transboundary pollutant flows, and the complexity to achieving reduction targets under climate change scenarios, underscore the need for the synergistic control of multiple pollutants and inter-regional action.

Atmospheric reduced nitrogen: Sources, transformations, effects, and management

Human activities have increased atmospheric emissions and deposition of oxidized and reduced forms of nitrogen, but emission control programs have largely focused on oxidized nitrogen. As a result, in many regions of the world emissions of oxidized nitrogen are decreasing while emissions of reduced nitrogen are increasing. Emissions of reduced nitrogen largely originate from livestock waste and fertilizer application, with contributions from transportation sources in urban areas. Observations suggest a discrepancy between trends in emissions and deposition of reduced nitrogen in the U.S., likely due to an underestimate in emissions. In the atmosphere, ammonia reacts with oxides of sulfur and nitrogen to form fine particulate matter that impairs health and visibility and affects climate forcings. Recent reductions in emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides have limited partitioning with ammonia, decreasing long-range transport. Continuing research is needed to improve understanding of how shifting emissions alter formation of secondary particulates and patterns of transport and deposition of reactive nitrogen. Satellite remote sensing has potential for monitoring atmospheric concentrations and emissions of ammonia, but there remains a need to maintain and strengthen ground-based measurements and continue development of chemical transport models. Elevated nitrogen deposition has decreased plant and soil microbial biodiversity and altered the biogeochemical function of terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems. Further study is needed on differential effects of oxidized versus reduced nitrogen and pathways and timescales of ecosystem recovery from elevated nitrogen deposition. Decreases in deposition of reduced nitrogen could alleviate exceedances of critical loads for terrestrial and freshwater indicators in many U.S. areas. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency should consider using critical loads as a basis for setting standards to protect public welfare and ecosystems. The U.S. and other countries might look to European experience for approaches to control emissions of reduced nitrogen from agricultural and transportation sectors.Implications: In this Critical Review we synthesize research on effects, air emissions, environmental transformations, and management of reduced forms of nitrogen. Emissions of reduced nitrogen affect human health, the structure and function of ecosystems, and climatic forcings. While emissions of oxidized forms of nitrogen are regulated in the U.S., controls on reduced forms are largely absent. Decreases in emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides coupled with increases in ammonia are shifting the gas-particle partitioning of ammonia and decreasing long-range atmospheric transport of reduced nitrogen. Effort is needed to understand, monitor, and manage emissions of reduced nitrogen in a changing environment.

Continued Rise in Health Burden from Ambient PM2.5 in India under SSP Scenarios Until 2100 despite Decreasing Concentrations

Forecasting alterations in ambient air pollution and the consequent health implications is crucial for safeguarding public health, advancing environmental sustainability, informing economic decision making, and promoting appropriate policy and regulatory action. However, predicting such changes poses a substantial challenge, requiring accurate data, sophisticated modeling methodologies, and a meticulous evaluation of multiple drivers. In this study, we calculate premature deaths due to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in India from the 2020s (2016-2020) to the 2100s (2095-2100) under four different socioeconomic and climate scenarios (SSPs) based on four CMIP6 models. PM2.5 concentrations decreased in all SSP scenarios except for SSP3-7.0, with the lowest concentration observed in SSP1-2.6. The results indicate an upward trend in the five-year average number of deaths across all scenarios, ranging from 1.01 million in the 2020s to 4.12-5.44 million in the 2100s. Further analysis revealed that the benefits of reducing PM2.5 concentrations under all scenarios are largely mitigated by population aging and growth. These findings underscore the importance of proactive measures and an integrated approach in India to improve atmospheric quality and reduce vulnerability to aging under changing climate conditions.

A review of air pollution as a driver of cardiovascular disease risk across the diabetes spectrum

The prevalence of diabetes is estimated to reach almost 630 million cases worldwide by the year 2045; of current and projected cases, over 90% are type 2 diabetes. Air pollution exposure has been implicated in the onset and progression of diabetes. Increased exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) is associated with increases in blood glucose and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) across the glycemic spectrum, including normoglycemia, prediabetes, and all forms of diabetes. Air pollution exposure is a driver of cardiovascular disease onset and exacerbation and can increase cardiovascular risk among those with diabetes. In this review, we summarize the literature describing the relationships between air pollution exposure, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, highlighting how airborne pollutants can disrupt glucose homeostasis. We discuss how air pollution and diabetes, via shared mechanisms leading to endothelial dysfunction, drive increased cardiovascular disease risk. We identify portable air cleaners as potentially useful tools to prevent adverse cardiovascular outcomes due to air pollution exposure across the diabetes spectrum, while emphasizing the need for further study in this particular population. Given the enormity of the health and financial impacts of air pollution exposure on patients with diabetes, a greater understanding of the interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk in this population is needed.

Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.

Assessing local and transboundary fine particulate matter pollution and sectoral contributions in Southeast Asia during haze months of 2015-2019

While previous studies have investigated haze events over Southeast Asia (SEA), local and transboundary contributions of various emission sources to haze months over the entire SEA have yet to be assessed comprehensively and systematically. We utilized the Particle Source Apportionment Technique (PSAT) to quantify the spatial local, transboundary, and sectoral contributions to PM2.5 over SEA during the haze months of 2015-2019. Results show that local emission contributions accounted for 56.1 % ~ 94.2 % of PM2.5 in Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. Transboundary contributions (23.1 % ~ 57.6 %) from Indonesia notably influenced maritime SEA. Vietnam (15.6 % ~ 39.1 %) and super-regional (17.0 % ~ 34.3 %) contributions outside the SEA exerted remarkable impacts on mainland SEA. Among different sectors, fire emissions contributed the most to PM2.5 over maritime SEA (23.0 % ~ 68.6 %) during the studied haze months, whereas residential and other emissions were the main contributors to mainland SEA (27.2 % ~ 36.7 %). Regarding the source species, primary PM2.5 accounted for the majority of PM2.5. VOC and SO2 composed most of the secondary PM2.5 due to massive VOC emissions in the region and the priority reaction of NH3 with sulfuric acid (H2SO4) to form ammonium sulfate. Besides, the intensified haze months in Oct 2015 and Sep 2019 were characterized by more intensive fire emissions in the region and the climatic variability-induced meteorological effects that provided favorable condition for transboundary air pollution (56.9 % and 44.9 %, respectively, for maritime SEA, as well as 46.0 % and 37.7 %, respectively, for mainland SEA in the two studied haze months). The haze months can be attributed to the notable drought conditions amidst global climatic phenomena such as El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in Oct 2015 and Sep 2019, respectively.

Redox and inflammatory mechanisms linking air pollution particulate matter with cardiometabolic derangements

Air pollution is the largest environmental risk factor for disease and premature death. Among the different components that are present in polluted air, fine particulate matter below 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) has been identified as the main hazardous constituent. PM2.5 mainly arises from fossil fuel combustion during power generation, industrial processes, and transportation. Exposure to PM2.5 correlates with enhanced mortality risk from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), such as myocardial infarction and stroke. Over the last decade, it has been increasingly suggested that PM2.5 affects CVD already at the stage of risk factor development. Among the multiple biological mechanisms that have been described, the interplay between oxidative stress and inflammation has been consistently highlighted as one of the main drivers of pulmonary, systemic, and cardiovascular effects of PM2.5 exposure. In this context, PM2.5 uptake by tissue-resident immune cells in the lung promotes oxidative and inflammatory mediators release that alter tissue homeostasis at remote locations. This pathway is central for PM2.5 pathogenesis and might account for the accelerated development of risk factors for CVD, including obesity and diabetes. However, transmission and end-organ mechanisms that explain PM2.5-induced impaired function in metabolic active organs are not completely understood. In this review, the main features of PM2.5 physicochemical characteristics related to PM2.5 ability to induce oxidative stress and inflammation will be presented. Hallmark and recent epidemiological and interventional studies will be summarized and discussed in the context of current air quality guidelines and legislation, knowledge gaps, and inequities. Lastly, mechanistic studies at the intersection between redox metabolism, inflammation, and function will be discussed, with focus on heart and adipose tissue alterations. By offering an integrated analysis of PM2.5-induced effects on cardiometabolic derangements, this review aims to contribute to a better understanding of the pathogenesis and potential interventions of air pollution-related CVD.