The limits of SARS-CoV-2 predictability

COVID-19 transmission and control in land public transport: A literature review

Land public transport is an important link within and between cities, and how to control the transmission of COVID-19 in land public transport is a critical issue in our daily lives. However, there are still many inconsistent opinions and views about the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in land public transport, which limits our ability to implement effective interventions. The purpose of this review is to overview the literature on transmission characteristics and routes of the epidemic in land public transport, as well as to investigate factors affecting its spread and provide feasible measures to mitigate the infection risk of passengers. We obtained 898 papers by searching the Web of Science, Pubmed, and WHO global COVID database by keywords, and finally selected 45 papers that can address the purpose of this review. Land public transport is a high outbreak area for COVID-19 due to characteristics like crowding, inadequate ventilation, long exposure time, and environmental closure. Different from surface touch transmission and drop spray transmission, aerosol inhalation transmission can occur not only in short distances but also in long distances. Insufficient ventilation is the most important factor influencing long-distance aerosol transmission. Other transmission factors (e.g., interpersonal distance, relative orientation, and ambient conditions) should be noticed as well, which have been summarized in this paper. To address various influencing factors, it is essential to suggest practical and efficient preventive measures. Among these, increased ventilation, particularly the fresh air (i.e., natural ventilation), has proven to effectively reduce indoor infection risk. Many preventive measures are also effective, such as enlarging social distance, avoiding face-to-face orientation, setting up physical partitions, disinfection, avoiding talking, and so on. As research on the epidemic has intensified, people have broken down many perceived barriers, but more comprehensive studies on monitoring systems and prevention measures in land public transport are still needed.

Relative role of community transmission and campus contagion in driving the spread of SARS-CoV-2: Lessons from Princeton University

Mathematical models have played a crucial role in exploring and guiding pandemic responses. University campuses present a particularly well-documented case for institutional outbreaks, thereby providing a unique opportunity to understand detailed patterns of pathogen spread. Here, we present descriptive and modeling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission on the Princeton University (PU) campus-this model was used throughout the pandemic to inform policy decisions and operational guidelines for the university campus. Epidemic patterns between the university campus and surrounding communities exhibit strong spatiotemporal correlations. Mathematical modeling analysis further suggests that the amount of on-campus transmission was likely limited during much of the wider pandemic until the end of 2021. Finally, we find that a superspreading event likely played a major role in driving the Omicron variant outbreak on the PU campus during the spring semester of the 2021-2022 academic year. Despite large numbers of cases on campus in this period, case levels in surrounding communities remained low, suggesting that there was little spillover transmission from campus to the local community.

Exploring new antiviral targets for influenza and COVID-19: Mapping promising hot spots in viral RNA polymerases

Influenza and COVID-19 are infectious respiratory diseases that represent a major concern to public health with social and economic impact worldwide, for which the available therapeutic options are not satisfactory. The RdRp has a central role in viral replication and thus represents a major target for the development of antiviral approaches. In this study, we focused on Influenza A virus PB1 polymerase protein and the betacoronaviruses nsp12 polymerase protein, considering their functional and structural similarities. We have performed conservation and druggability analysis to map conserved druggable regions, that may have functional or structural importance in these proteins. We disclosed the most promising and new targeting regions for the discovery of new potential polymerase inhibitors. Conserved druggable regions of putative interaction with favipiravir and molnupiravir were also mapped. We have also compared and integrated the current findings with previous research.

A stakeholder-driven framework for measuring potential change in the health risks of people who inject drugs (PWID) during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) have likely borne disproportionate health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. PWID experienced both interruptions and changes to drug supply and delivery modes of harm reduction, treatment, and other medical services, leading to potentially increased risks for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and overdose. Given surveillance and research disruptions, proximal, indirect indicators of infectious diseases and overdose should be developed for timely measurement of health effects of the pandemic on PWID.

METHODS

We used group concept mapping and a systems thinking approach to produce an expert stakeholder-generated, multi-level framework for monitoring changes in PWID health outcomes potentially attributable to COVID-19 in the U.S. This socio-ecological measurement framework elucidates proximal and distal contributors to infectious disease and overdose outcomes, many of which can be measured using existing data sources.

RESULTS

The framework includes multi-level components including policy considerations, drug supply/distribution systems, the service delivery landscape, network factors, and individual characteristics such as mental and general health status and service utilization. These components are generally mediated by substance use and sexual behavioral factors to cause changes in incidence of HIV, HCV, sexually transmitted infections, wound/skin infections, and overdose.

CONCLUSION

This measurement framework is intended to increase the quality and timeliness of research on the impacts of COVID-19 in the context of the current pandemic and future crises. Next steps include a ranking process to narrow the drivers of change in health risks to a concise set of indicators that adequately represent framework components, can be written as measurable indicators, and are quantifiable using existing data sources, as well as a publicly available web-based platform for summary data contributions.

Development of forecast models for COVID-19 hospital admissions using anonymized and aggregated mobile network data

Reliable forecast of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons can help enable effective resource management which is vital in reducing pressure from healthcare services. The use of mobile network data has come to attention in response to COVID-19 pandemic leveraged on their ability in capturing people social behavior. Crucially, we show that there are latent features in irreversibly anonymized and aggregated mobile network data that carry useful information in relation to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. We describe development of the forecast models using such features for prediction of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons (21 days). In a case study, we verified the approach for two hospitals in Sweden, Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Södra Älvsborgs Hospital, working closely with the experts engaged in the hospital resource planning. Importantly, the results of the forecast models were used in year 2021 by logisticians at the hospitals as one of the main inputs for their decisions regarding resource management.

covidscreen: a web app and R Package for assessing asymptomatic COVID-19 testing strategies

Background

COVID-19 has caused over 305 million infections and nearly 5.5 million deaths globally. With complete eradication unlikely, organizations will need to evaluate their risk and the benefits of mitigation strategies, including the effects of regular asymptomatic testing. We developed a web application and R package that provides estimates and visualizations to aid the assessment of organizational infection risk and testing benefits to facilitate decision-making, which combines internal and community information with malleable assumptions.

Results

Our web application, covidscreen, presents estimated values of risk metrics in an intuitive graphical format. It shows the current expected number of active, primarily community-acquired infections among employees in an organization. It calculates and explains the absolute and relative risk reduction of an intervention, relative to the baseline scenario, and shows the value of testing vaccinated and unvaccinated employees. In addition, the web interface allows users to profile risk over a chosen range of input values. The performance and output are illustrated using simulations and a real-world example from the employee testing program of a pediatric oncology specialty hospital.

Conclusions

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, covidscreen can assist organizations in making informed decisions about whether to incorporate covid test based screening as part of their on-campus risk-mitigation strategy. The web application, R package, and source code are freely available online (see “Availability of data and materials”).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13718-4.

SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Croatian wastewaters and the absence of SARS-CoV-2 in bivalve molluscan shellfish

The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the environment has been confirmed numerous times, whilst research on the bioaccumulation in bivalve molluscan shellfish (BMS) has been rather scarce. The present study aimed to fulfil the knowledge gap on SARS-CoV-2 circulation in wastewaters and surface waters in this region and to extend the current knowledge on potential presence of SARS-CoV-2 contamination in BMS. The study included 13 archive wastewater and surface water samples from the start of epidemic and 17 influents and effluents from nine wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) of different capacity and treatment stage, sampled during the second epidemic wave. From that period are the most of 77 collected BMS samples, represented by mussels, oysters and warty venus clams harvested along the Dalmatian coast. All samples were processed according to EN ISO 15216-1 2017 using Mengovirus as a whole process control. SARS-CoV-2 detection was performed by real-time and conventional RT-PCR assays targeting E, N and nsp14 protein genes complemented with nsp14 partial sequencing. Rotavirus A (RVA) real-time RT-PCR assay was implemented as an additional evaluation criterion of virus concentration techniques. The results revealed the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in nine influents and two secondary treatment effluents from eight WWTPs, while all samples from the start of epidemic (wastewaters, surface waters) were negative which was influenced by sampling strategy. All tertiary effluents and BMS were SARS-CoV-2 negative. The results of RVA amplification were beneficial in evaluating virus concentration techniques and provided insights into RVA dynamics within the environment and community. In conclusion, the results of the present study confirm SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Croatian wastewaters during the second epidemic wave while extending the knowledge on wastewater treatment potential in SARS-CoV-2 removal. Our findings represent a significant contribution to the current state of knowledge that considers BMS of a very low food safety risk regarding SARS-CoV-2.